Agénor, Pierre-RichardBayraktar, NihalPinto Moreira, EmmanuelEl Aynaoui, Karim2012-06-202012-06-202005-10https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8521The authors present an integrated macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of their approach is a macroeconomic model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), the supply side, and poverty. The model is linked through cross-section regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy, and access to safe water. A composite MDG indicator is also calculated. The functioning of the framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in aid and a debt write-off for Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. The authors' approach can serve as the building block of Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current "Poverty Reduction" Strategy Papers.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGADJUSTMENT COSTSAGGREGATE DEMANDAGRICULTUREBUSINESS CYCLECAPITALCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL FLOWSCAPITAL INFLOWSCENTRAL BANKCOMPETITIVENESSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMPTION GROWTHCONSUMPTION LEVELSCOUNTRY REGRESSIONSDEBTDEBT RELIEFDECLINING POVERTYDEMAND SIDEDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING WORLDDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT GOALSDISPOSABLE INCOMEDOMESTIC BORROWINGDOMESTIC DEMANDDYNAMIC PANELECONOMIC GROWTHEDUCATED WORKERSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTELASTICITYELECTRICITYEMPIRICAL ESTIMATIONEMPIRICAL EVIDENCEEMPIRICAL FINDINGSEMPIRICAL SUPPORTENDOGENOUS GROWTHENDOGENOUS VARIABLESEQUILIBRIUM VALUEEXCHANGE RATE REGIMEEXOGENOUS RATEEXPORTSFOREIGN AIDFOREIGN CAPITALFORMAL ANALYSISGDPGDP PER CAPITAGINI COEFFICIENTGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROWTHGROWTH ELASTICITYGROWTH MODELSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHIGH ELASTICITYHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTIMPROVING GOVERNANCEIMPROVING PRODUCTIVITYINCOMEINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIESINEFFICIENCYINFANT MORTALITYINFLATIONINFRASTRUCTURE CAPITALINTEREST PAYMENTSINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTINVESTMENT PROJECTSINVESTMENT RATESLANDLOCKED COUNTRIESLIFE EXPECTANCYLIQUIDITYLIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTSLIVING STANDARDSLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORKMACROECONOMIC VARIABLESMACROECONOMICSMEMBER COUNTRIESMORAL HAZARDNATIONAL INCOMENET EFFECTNET EXPORTSNET FOREIGN ASSETSOUTSTANDING STOCKPOLICY DEBATEPOLICY RESEARCHPOOR COUNTRIESPOSITIVE EFFECTPOSITIVE EXTERNALITIESPOSITIVE IMPACTPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIESPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGYPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE SECTORPRODUCTION COSTSPUBLICPUBLIC CAPITALPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC FUNDSPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC INVESTMENT IN EDUCATIONPUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTUREPUBLIC RESOURCESPUBLIC SPENDINGRATE OF RETURNREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREAL INCOMEREDUCING POVERTYROADSRURAL AREASSAVING RATESAVINGSSIDE EFFECTSSIGNIFICANT IMPACTSOCIAL DEVELOPMENTTAXTAX RATETAX RATESTAX REVENUETAX REVENUESTAXATIONTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETELECOMMUNICATIONSWAGESWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-3750