Singh, Raju JanBodea, CristinaHigashijima, Masaaki2016-06-132016-06-132016-05https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24518Haiti's economic development has been held back by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levels following the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints. At the same time, the United Nations forces that have provided security in the past decade are scaling down. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haiti's own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOSANITATIONLIVING STANDARDSTERRORISMACCESS TO HEALTH CARECIVIL CONFLICTCIVIL LIBERTIESCONFLICT MANAGEMENTECONOMIC GROWTHMILITIASURBANIZATIONDEATHSTOLERANCEMILITARY PERSONNELMILITARY REGIMESJUNTANATIONSADEQUATE EDUCATIONPOLITICAL RIGHTSLABOR FORCEDEVELOPING COUNTRIESLEVEL OF POVERTYINTERNATIONAL CONFLICTPUBLIC SERVICESHEALTH CARECONSTRAINTSCIVIL UNRESTPOLICY DISCUSSIONSETHNIC GROUPSOLDIERSMILITARY EXPENDITURELITERACY RATESSOCIAL PROGRAMSNATIONAL LEVELINDEPENDENCEPOPULATION SIZECONFLICTINTERNATIONAL BANKSAFETY NETSREBELSHEALTH SECTORFIREARMSARMED CONFLICTINSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMSMILITARY BUDGETSPOLITICAL VIOLENCEDISPUTESMILITARY SPENDINGEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTAIR FORCEFOREIGN AIDBABYREGIONAL CONFLICTMATERIAL RESOURCESDEMOCRACYCITIZENYOUNG MALEVIOLENCEDEBTWORLD DEVELOPMENTTRUSTHOUSEHOLD INCOMESECURITY FORCESCOERCIONSOCIAL SECURITYSCHOOL STUDENTSARMED FORCESPRIMARY SCHOOLSTATE UNIVERSITYSOCIAL EXPENDITURESRULE OF LAWURBAN DWELLERSEQUAL OPPORTUNITIESPOLITICAL SUPPORTGRANTSPROGRESSGENOCIDEUNEMPLOYMENTENERGY CONSUMPTIONHUMAN CAPITALEARTHQUAKEELECTIONSIMFOBSERVERSPOLICIESYOUNG SOLDIERSMILITARYLOW-INCOME COUNTRYPOLICEBASIC NEEDSPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPENSIONSRAPESREBELCOLD WARURBAN CENTERSPROVISION OF EDUCATIONINTERPERSONAL SKILLSBASIC INFRASTRUCTUREWORKSHOPVICTIMSPOLITICAL OPPOSITIONECONOMYVIOLENT CONFLICTNATIONPOPULATIONSBATTLEPOLICYFIGHTINGINTERNATIONAL STUDIESSOCIAL WELFAREQUALITY OF LIFEPOPULOUS COUNTRIESCITIZENSBATTLESSOCIAL POLICIESINTERNATIONAL WARSOCIAL SECTORSINTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTHUMAN RIGHTSECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIESWARSWARMILITARY FORCESNATURAL RESOURCEARMYRURAL AREASECONOMIC OPPORTUNITYARMSLIMITED RESOURCESNATIONALISMYOUNG PEOPLESOCIAL COHESIONREHABILITATIONPOPULATIONCONFLICTSEXTERNAL DEBTLAWDEFENSEUNIVERSITYSTUDENTSURBAN SLUMSPOLICY RESEARCHCIVIL WARAGREEMENTPOLITICAL PROCESSCONFLICT RESOLUTIONPEACE RESEARCHDEPENDENCEPEACE PROCESSREMITTANCESCIVIL WARSPUBLIC SERVICEMILITARIZATIONSECONDARY EDUCATIONADULT LITERACYREVOLUTIONSPOLITICAL PARTICIPATIONSOCIAL MOBILITYPEACEPOLITICAL INSTABILITYWORLD DEVELOPMENTRECONSTRUCTIONPEACEKEEPINGNAVYECONOMIESDEVELOPMENT POLICYHUMAN DEVELOPMENTWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7681