Cristelli, MatthieuTacchella, AndreaCader, MasudRoster, KirstinPietronero, Luciano2017-07-182017-07-182017-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27620A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOECONOMIC PREDICTIONSGROWTH PROJECTIONSFORECASTINGPREDICTABILITYPOTENTIALCOMPETITIVENESSDIVERSIFICATIONWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-8117