Hertel, Thomas W.Steinbuks, JevgenijsTyner, Wallace E.2015-01-072015-01-072014-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21137What is second-generation biofuel technology worth to global society? A dynamic, computable partial equilibrium model (called FABLE) is used to assess changes in global land use for crops, livestock, biofuels, forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, with and without second-generation biofuels technology. The difference in the discounted stream of global valuations of land-based goods and services gives the value of second-generation technology to society. Under baseline conditions, this to amounts to $64.2 billion at today's population or an increase of roughly 0.3 percent in the valuation of the world's land resources. This gain arises despite the fact that, in the baseline scenario, the technology does not become commercially viable until 2035. Alternative scenarios considered include: diminished crop yield growth owing to adverse climate impacts, flat energy prices, low economic growth, and high population growth, as well as greenhouse gas regulation. The most important factor driving second-generation valuation is greenhouse gas regulation, which more than doubles the social value of this technology. Flat energy prices essentially eliminate the value of second-generation technology to society, and high population growth reduces its value because of the heightened competition for land for food production.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS COSTSAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL USESAGROCHEMICALSALLOCATIONALTERNATIVE SCENARIOSANNUAL EMISSIONSANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOKAPPROACHBEQUEST VALUEBIO-OILBIOMASSBIOMASS CONVERSIONBIOMASS FEEDSTOCKBIOMASS TO ENERGYCAPITAL COSTCAPITAL COSTSCARBONCARBON EMISSIONSCARBON FLUXESCARBON FOOTPRINTCELLULOSIC BIOMASSCELLULOSIC FEEDSTOCKCELLULOSIC FEEDSTOCKSCHEMICAL PROCESSESCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE POLICIESCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE STABILIZATIONCO2COMBUSTIONCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMPTION OF ENERGYCONVERSION OF BIOMASSCORN STOVERCOST ESTIMATESCOST OF FEEDSTOCKCOST OF PRODUCTIONCRUDE OILCRUDE OIL PRICEDECISION MAKINGDEFORESTATIONDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICESDIESELECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC VALUEECONOMICSECOSYSTEMECOSYSTEMSEFFICIENT EQUIPMENTEFFICIENT USEELECTRICITYEMISSIONSEMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATIONEMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCKEMISSIONS MITIGATIONEMISSIONS TARGETSENERGY ECONOMICSENERGY EXTRACTIONENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATIONENERGY POLICYENERGY PRICEENERGY PRICESENVIRONMENTALENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHEQUILIBRIUMETHANOLEXPENDITURESEXTERNALITIESFAST PYROLYSISFEEDSTOCKFEEDSTOCK COSTFEEDSTOCK COSTSFEEDSTOCKSFERTILIZERSFOOD PRODUCTIONFORESTFOREST AREAFOREST AREASFOREST CARBONFOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATIONFOREST SINKSFORESTRYFORESTRY ACTIVITIESFORESTRY PRODUCTSFORESTRY SECTORFORESTSFOSSILFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUEL PRICESFOSSIL FUELSFUEL CONSUMPTIONFUEL CONVERSIONFUEL PRICESGAS TECHNOLOGYGASOLINEGENERATIONGHGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSHYDROCARBONSHYDROGENINCOMEINPUT PRICESLABOR COSTSLAND COVER CHANGELAND RESOURCESLAND USELAND USE DECISIONSLIQUID FUELLIQUID FUELSLIVESTOCK PRODUCTSMETHANEMETHANE EMISSIONSNATURAL FORESTSNATURAL GASNATURAL RESOURCESNITROUS OXIDENITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONSOILOIL EQUIVALENTOIL MARKETSOIL PRICEOIL PRICE SCENARIOOIL PRICESPASTURE LANDPASTURESPETROLEUMPETROLEUM PRICESPETROLEUM PRODUCTSPOLICY ANALYSISPOLICY IMPLICATIONSPOLICY MAKERSPOPULATION GROWTHPRESENT VALUEPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPYROLYSISRENEWABLE FUELRENEWABLE FUELSRESOURCE ECONOMICSRICE PRODUCTIONRISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGESUBSTITUTIONSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGETECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESSTEMPERATURETIMBERTOTAL COSTTOTAL COSTSTRANSPORTATION FUELSUNCERTAINTIESUTILITY FUNCTIONWAGESWELFARE FUNCTIONWOOD PRODUCTSWORLD CRUDEWORLD ENERGYWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK10.1596/1813-9450-7142