Updating Poverty Estimates at Frequent Intervals in the Absence of Consumption Data : Methods and Illustration with Reference to a Middle-Income Country

Lanjouw, Peter F.Dang, Hai-Anh H.Serajuddin, Umar2014-10-062014-10-062014-09https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20374Obtaining consistent estimates on poverty over time as well as monitoring poverty trends on a timely basis is a priority concern for policy makers. However, these objectives are not readily achieved in practice when household consumption data are neither frequently collected, nor constructed using consistent and transparent criteria. This paper develops a formal framework for survey-to-survey poverty imputation in an attempt to overcome these obstacles, and to elevate the discussion of these methods beyond the largely ad-hoc efforts in the existing literature. The framework introduced here imposes few restrictive assumptions, works with simple variance formulas, provides guidance on the selection of control variables for model building, and can be generally applied to imputation either from one survey to another survey with the same design, or to another survey with a different design. Empirical results analyzing the Household Expenditure and Income Survey and the Unemployment and Employment Survey in Jordan are quite encouraging, with imputation-based poverty estimates closely tracking the direct estimates of poverty.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTURAL WAGESCELL PHONECELL PHONESCHANGES IN POVERTYCOMMODITYCONFIDENCE INTERVALSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMPTION DATADATA AVAILABILITYDECLINE IN POVERTYDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDEVELOPMENT RESEARCHDIMENSIONS OF POVERTYDRINKING WATERDUMMY VARIABLESECONOMETRIC ISSUESECONOMETRICSECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC LITERATUREECONOMIC REFORMSECONOMIC STUDIESECONOMICSECONOMICS LETTERSECONOMICS LITERATUREELDERLY PEOPLEEMPIRICAL APPLICATIONEMPIRICAL EVIDENCEEMPIRICAL RESULTSEMPLOYMENT INCOMEEMPLOYMENT STATUSENUMERATIONEQUATIONSERROR TERMSESTIMATED COEFFICIENTSESTIMATES OF POVERTYESTIMATION RESULTSESTIMATION TECHNIQUESEXPLANATORY VARIABLESEXTREME POVERTYFEMALE HOUSEHOLD MEMBERSFINANCIAL RESOURCESFOOD BASKETFOOD CONSUMPTIONFUNCTIONAL FORMGLOBAL POVERTYGOVERNMENT AGENCIESGROWTH RATESHEADCOUNT POVERTYHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICSHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD HEADSHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHOUSINGHUMAN RESOURCESIMPUTATIONIMPUTATION METHODIMPUTATION METHODSIMPUTATIONSINCOMEINCOME GROUPSINEQUALITYLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLINEAR REGRESSIONMEASUREMENT ERRORSMEASURING POVERTYMISSING DATAMISSING VALUESMODEL SPECIFICATIONSMULTIPLE IMPUTATIONMULTIPLE IMPUTATIONSNET CHANGESNORMAL DISTRIBUTIONNORMAL DISTRIBUTIONSOPEN ACCESSPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPHONEPOINT DECLINEPOINT ESTIMATESPOLICY INTERVENTIONSPOLICY MAKERSPOLICY RESEARCHPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOPULATION GROUPPOVERTY ANALYSISPOVERTY ASSESSMENTPOVERTY CHANGEPOVERTY COMPARISONSPOVERTY DATAPOVERTY DEBATEPOVERTY DECLINEPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOVERTY ERADICATIONPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASUREMENTPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGYPOVERTY STATUSPRECISIONPREDICTIONPREDICTIONSPROBABILITYRADIORAPID GROWTHRESEARCH METHODSRESULTRURALRURAL AREASSAMPLE SIZESAMPLE SURVEYSSAMPLING FRAMESSATELLITESCHOOLINGSOFTWARE PACKAGESSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTANDARD DEVIATIONSSTANDARD ERRORSSTANDARDIZATIONSTATASTATISTICAL ANALYSISSTATISTICAL INFERENCESTATISTICAL THEORYSTATISTICIANSTARGETSTECHNICAL EXPERTISETELEVISIONTIME PERIODTIME PERIODSTIME SERIESUNEMPLOYMENTURBAN AREASUSERUSESVALIDITYWAGE DIFFERENTIALSUpdating Poverty Estimates at Frequent Intervals in the Absence of Consumption Data : Methods and Illustration with Reference to a Middle-Income Country10.1596/1813-9450-7043