Annabi, NabilKhondker, BazlulRaihan, SelimCockburn, JohnDecaluwe, Bernard2012-06-182012-06-182006-08https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8370The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. (3) Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favorable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short-run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest households the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction. (4) Domestic liberalization effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined. (5) Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCUMULATION RATEAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRICESAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTURAL SUPPORTAGRICULTURAL TRADEAGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATIONAGRICULTUREAVERAGE TARIFFBASKET OF GOODSCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL INCREASECAPITAL STOCKCHANGES IN POVERTYCOMMERCIAL CROPSCONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATIONCONSUMER PRICECONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER PRICE INDICESCONSUMER PRICESCONSUMERSCONSUMPTION LEVELSCOST OF LIVINGCOTTON PRODUCTIONCOUNTERFACTUALCURRENCYCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCEDEBTDEMAND CURVEDEMAND FUNCTIONDEVALUATIONDIVIDENDSDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC MARKETDOMESTIC PRICE OF IMPORTSDOMESTIC PRICESECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICIESELASTICITYENDOGENOUS VARIABLESEXCHANGE RATE REGIMEEXPENDITUREEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT MARKETEXPORT ORIENTATIONEXPORT PRICESEXPORT SUBSIDIESEXPORT TAXESEXPORTSEXTERNAL TRADEFACTOR MARKETSFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFARMERSFOOD GRAINSFOOD PRICESFOOD PROCESSINGFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFREE TRADEFULL LIBERALIZATIONFULL TRADE LIBERALIZATIONGLOBAL FREE TRADEGLOBAL TRADEGROWTH RATEHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPERFECT SUBSTITUTESIMPORT COMPETITIONIMPORT DUTYIMPORT PENETRATIONIMPORT PRICESINCOMEINCOME EFFECTSINCOME GAINSINCOME SHARESINCOME TAXESINEQUALITYINTENSIVE AGRICULTUREINTERNATIONAL MARKETLANDLESS HOUSEHOLDSLOST TARIFF REVENUESMARKETINGNATIONAL INCOMENOMINAL INCOMEOPTIMIZATIONPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOORER HOUSEHOLDPOORER HOUSEHOLDSPOSITIVE EFFECTSPOVERTY ANALYSISPOVERTY GAPPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY INDICESPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASURESPOVERTY PROFILEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE INCREASESQUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONSREAL GDPREAL INTEREST RATERURALRURAL AREASRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL INCOMESSALESSAVINGSSMALL FARMERSMALL FARMERSSTOCKSSUBSTITUTESUBSTITUTIONTARIFF RATETARIFF RATESTECHNOLOGY TRANSFERTERMS OF TRADETEXTILE IMPORTSTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE MODELSTRADE POLICIESTRADE POLICYTRANSFERSUNILATERAL TRADEUNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATIONUNILATERAL TRADE POLICYUNSKILLED LABORUNSKILLED WORKERSURUGUAY ROUNDUTILITY FUNCTIONVALUE ADDEDWAGE RATESWAGESWELFARE GAINSWELFARE IMPACTSWELFARE LOSSESWORLD MARKETWORLD PRICESWORLD TRADEWTOWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-3976