Timilsina, Govinda R.Beghin, John C.van der Mensbrugghe, DominiqueMevel, Simon2012-03-192012-03-192010-12-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3997This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.CC BY 3.0 IGOACREAGEAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIESAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL COMMODITYAGRICULTURAL CROPAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL EXPORTSAGRICULTURAL GOODAGRICULTURAL IMPORTSAGRICULTURAL LANDAGRICULTURAL MARKETSAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL POLICYAGRICULTURAL PRICEAGRICULTURAL PRICESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL TRADEAGRICULTUREANIMAL MANUREBARLEYBIO-DIESELBIO-ETHANOLBIODIESELBIODIVERSITYBIOENERGYBIOFUELBIOFUEL INDUSTRYBIOFUEL PRODUCTIONBIOFUEL USEBIOFUELSBIOFUELS INDUSTRYBIOFUELS PRODUCTIONBIOMASSBIOMASS SECTORSCARBON TAXCEREALSCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECOARSE GRAINSCONSTRUCTIONCORNCORN PRICESCROPCROP PRICESCROP PRODUCTIONCROPLANDCROPLANDSCROPSDATESDEFORESTATIONDOMESTIC MARKETECOLOGICAL ZONESENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY ECONOMICSENERGY MARKETSENERGY PRICEENERGY PRICESENERGY SUPPLYENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONETHANOL MARKETSETHANOL PRODUCTIONETHANOL PRODUCTIONSEXPORTEXPORTSFARMFARM INPUTSFARM SECTORFARMINGFEEDFERTILIZERFIELD CROPSFOOD AVAILABILITYFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD DEMANDFOOD GRAINSFOOD INDUSTRIESFOOD MARKETSFOOD PRICESFOOD PROCESSINGFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD PRODUCTSFOOD SECURITYFOOD SUPPLYFOODSFORESTFOREST AREASFOREST LANDFORESTRYFOSSIL ENERGYFOSSIL FUELSFREE TRADEFREE TRADE AGREEMENTSFRUITFRUITSFUEL CONSUMPTIONGAS DISTRIBUTIONGASOLINE PRICESGAUGEGHGGRAINGRAIN PRICESGRAINSGRAZINGGREASEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE GASESGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH IN AGRICULTUREIFPRIIMPORT DUTIESIMPORTSLAND AREALAND REVENUELAND USELAND USESLAND­USELIQUID FUELLIQUID FUELSLIVESTOCKLIVESTOCK PRODUCTSLIVESTOCK SECTORMITIGATIONMOLASSESMONOCULTURENATURAL GASNATURAL RESOURCESOATSOIL PRICESOIL SEEDSOILSEED CROPSOILSEEDSPADDYPALM OILPALM OIL PRODUCTIONPOPULATION GROWTHPRICE INCREASESPRICE INDEXPRICE LEVELSPRICE MOVEMENTSPRIMARY PRODUCTSPRODUCEPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROTEINPROTEIN MEALRAPESEEDRAPESEED OILRAPESEEDSRENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESRENEWABLE FUELRICE PRODUCTIONSEEDSSOYBEANSOYBEAN OILSOYBEANSSPRINGSTRAWSUGARSUGAR BEETSUGAR CANESUGAR CROPSSUGAR PRICESSUGARCANETARIFF RATETRADE ASSOCIATIONVEGETABLE OILVEGETABLE OILSVEGETABLESVOLUMEWETLANDSWHEATWHEAT PRICESWOODWOOD RESIDUESWORLD FOOD SUPPLYWORLD PRICESYIELDSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5513