Baez, Javier E.Lucchetti, LeonardoGenoni, Maria E.Salazar, Mateo2015-02-032015-02-032015-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21396This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010) -- the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept -- on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effects, particularly among urban households. Per capita consumption fell by 12.6 percent, raising poverty by 5.5 percentage points (an increase of 18 percent). The negative effects of the shock span other areas of human welfare. Households cut back on food consumption (10 percent or 43 to 108 fewer calories per person per day) and reduced expenditures on basic durables. These effects are related to a drop in income per capita (10 percent), mostly among salaried workers. Adults coped with the shock by increasing their labor supply (on the intensive margin) and simultaneously relying on the labor supply of their children and withdrawing them from school. Impact heterogeneity is associated with the intensity of the shock, food price inflation, and the timing of Agatha with respect to the harvest cycle of the main crops. The results are robust to placebo treatments, household migration, issues of measurement error, and different samples. The negative effects of the storm partly explain the increase in poverty seen in urban Guatemala between 2006 and 2011, which national authorities and analysts previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO ELECTRICITYAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL LANDALLOCATIONALLOCATION MECHANISMANTI-POVERTYAVERAGE PRICEBUFFER STOCKCALORIE INTAKECALORIES PER DAYCALORIES PER PERSONCALORIES PER PERSON PER DAYCASH TRANSFERSCHILD LABORCHILD NUTRITIONCLIMATECOLLATERAL EFFECTSCONSUMPTION AGGREGATECONSUMPTION BASKETCONSUMPTION DATACONSUMPTION INSURANCECONSUMPTION MEASURECONSUMPTION PRICECONSUMPTION SMOOTHINGCROP INCOMEDEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICSDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDIVERSIFICATIONDOMESTIC PRODUCTIONDROUGHTECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC IMPACTSENERGY CONSUMPTIONEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME POVERTYEXTREME POVERTY LINEEXTREME RAINFALLEXTREME WEATHEREXTREME WEATHER EVENTSFINANCIAL CRISISFOOD AIDFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD EXPENDITURESFOOD ITEMSFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOOD SECURITYGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGEOGRAPHICAL REGIONSHIGHER INCIDENCE OF POVERTYHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITAHOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURESHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD MEMBERSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHOUSINGHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN CAPITAL FORMATIONHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHURRICANEHURRICANE RISKHURRICANESINCOMEINCOME RISKINCOME SHOCKINEQUALITYINFANT MORTALITYINFANT MORTALITY RATESINSURANCEJOBSLABOR INCOMELABOR SUPPLYLIVING STANDARDSLOSSES IN CONSUMPTIONMALNUTRITIONMILKNATIONAL POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY LINENATIONAL POVERTY RATENATURAL DISASTERNATURAL DISASTERSNATURAL SHOCKSNUTRITIONPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPOORPOVERTY GAPPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MAPPOVERTY PERSISTENCEPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY STATUSPOVERTY THRESHOLDPRICE INDEXPRIVATE TRANSFERSPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONREDUCTION IN CONSUMPTIONRESOURCE ECONOMICSRISK MANAGEMENTRURALRURAL AREASRURAL FAMILIESRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL POORRURAL POOR HOUSEHOLDSRURAL VILLAGESSANITATIONSCHOOL ATTENDANCESCHOOLINGSOCIAL PROTECTIONSTORMSSUBSISTENCETOTAL CONSUMPTIONTOTAL DAMAGESTOTAL INCOMETROPICAL CYCLONETROPICAL STORMVULNERABILITY TO POVERTYWELFARE INDICATOR10.1596/1813-9450-7177