Arndt, ChanningFarmer, WilliamStrzepek, KennethThurlow, James2013-01-022013-01-022012-09https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12045The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSORPTIONADMINISTRATIVE REGIONSAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIESAGRICULTURAL GROWTHAGRICULTURAL INCOMESAGRICULTURAL LANDAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTURAL YIELDSAGRICULTUREAGROCLIMATOLOGYAIRANNUAL PRECIPITATIONATMOSPHERECARBONCARBON EMISSIONSCARBON ENRICHMENTCASSAVACEREALSCHEMICALSCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGESCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSCLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITYCLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE EFFECTSCLIMATE OUTCOMESCLIMATE PROJECTIONSCLIMATE SCENARIOSCLIMATE SEQUENCECLIMATE SYSTEMSCLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIATIONCLIMATE-CHANGECLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC REGIONSCLIMATIC ZONESCLIMATOLOGYCOCO2CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGECONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGECONSUMER PRICESCONSUMPTION BASKETCONSUMPTION PATTERNSCROP PROCESSINGCROP PRODUCTIONCROP YIELDCROP YIELDSDAILY CLIMATE DATADAMAGESDATESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDISCOUNT RATEDOMESTIC PRODUCTIONDYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUMECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC COSTSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMIC IMPACTSECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMIC MODELECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTSEFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGEELECTRICITYEMISSIONEMISSION SCENARIOSEMISSIONS SCENARIOEVAPOTRANSPIRATIONEXCHANGE RATEFARM ACTIVITIESFARM HOUSEHOLDSFARMERFARMERSFERTILIZATIONFOOD AVAILABILITYFOOD COMMODITIESFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITUREFOOD CROPFOOD CROPSFOOD IMPORTSFOOD INSECURITYFOOD POLICYFOOD POLICY RESEARCHFOOD PRICESFOOD PROCESSINGFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD SECURITYFOOD SUPPLIESFOOD SUPPLYFORESTRYFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGEFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGESGCMGENERAL CIRCULATION MODELGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTIONGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASESGOLDGREENHOUSEGROUNDNUTSHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHUMAN CAPITALIMPACT OF CLIMATEIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPORTSINCOMEINCOME HOUSEHOLDSINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTEIRRIGATIONLABOR SUPPLYLAND USEMAIZEMARKET ECONOMYMEATMEAT PROCESSINGNATIONAL CLIMATENEGATIVE IMPACTSNEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGENUTRITIONOXYGENPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPETPOOR POPULATIONPOORER HOUSEHOLDSPOTATOESPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY REDUCTIONPPPRECIPITATIONPULSESRAINRAINFALLRAINFALL PATTERNSREGIONAL CHARACTERISTICSREGIONAL LEVELSREGIONAL RESULTSREGIONAL VARIATIONRELATIVE PRICESRESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGERICEROOT CROPSRURAL DEVELOPMENTRURAL FARMRURAL HOUSEHOLDSSEASONSECTORAL RESULTSSOYBEANSSUBSTITUTIONSURFACE TEMPERATURESSUSTAINABILITY SCIENCESWEET POTATOESTAX RATESTEMPERATURETEMPERATURE INCREASETEMPERATURESWEATHER CONDITIONSWEATHER PATTERNSWHEATWORLD FOOD SUPPLYWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6188