Alfani, FedericaAzzarri, Carlod'Errico, MarcoMolini, Vasco2013-01-022013-01-022012-10https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12050This paper has three primary objectives: (i) to investigate potential problems regarding Mozambique's most recent nationally representative household survey on poverty dynamics; (ii) to assess the robustness and reliability of official poverty statistics; and (iii) to provide alternative estimates of poverty and welfare indicators in light of the methodological and analytical issues raised in areas (i) and (ii). It is determined that at least two significant weaknesses affect the official poverty-rate estimates: measurement errors in consumption data and flaws in the methodology used to calculate poverty lines (the cost-of-basic-needs approach based on provincial food bundles with entropy correction). A number of observations appear to be affected by substantial measurement errors, which severely distort the official poverty statistics. The paper provides methods to correct the consumption distribution by recalculating poverty lines based on a single national food basket -- as opposed to the current estimates, which are based on province-specific food baskets. The revised poverty statistics differ considerably from the official estimates of poverty across provinces and are far more consistent with other poverty indicators. In addition, poverty appears to be highly concentrated in certain areas, with dramatically higher rates found in Central and Northern Mozambique, as well as in rural areas overall, compared with relatively low rates in Southern Mozambique and in the country's urban centers. These findings substantially contradict the government's official poverty figures, which appear to systematically overestimate poverty rates in Mozambique's Southern provinces and urban areas while simultaneously underestimating the prevalence of poverty in the country's Central and Northern regions and in rural areas nationwide.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO SERVICESAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTUREBANANASBREADCALORIC INTAKECALORIC REQUIREMENTCALORIE INTAKECASSAVACENTRAL REGIONCENTRAL REGIONSCEREALSCHANGES IN POVERTYCHESTNUTSCONSUMER BASKETSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMPTION BASKETCONSUMPTION BEHAVIORCONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTIONCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURECONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER CAPITACONSUMPTION LEVELCONSUMPTION PATTERNSCONSUMPTION PER CAPITACONSUMPTION POVERTYCORNDAIRYDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT ISSUESDIETARY DIVERSITYECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHESTIMATES OF POVERTYEXPENDITURE DATAFARMERSFOOD BASKETFOOD BASKETSFOOD BUNDLEFOOD BUNDLESFOOD COMPONENTSFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD CONSUMPTION DATAFOOD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESFOOD EXPENDITURESFOOD ITEMSFOOD POLICYFOOD POLICY RESEARCHFOOD POVERTYFOOD POVERTY LINEFOOD SHAREFOODSGAGROUNDNUTSHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURESHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD HEAD AGEHOUSEHOLD LEVELHOUSEHOLD SIZEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSINGINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME GROWTHINCOME LEVELSINCOME RISESINEQUALITYINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTELIVING STANDARDSLIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENTMAIZEMALNUTRITIONMEATNATIONAL POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY LINENATIONAL POVERTY RATENON-FOOD COMPONENTNON-FOOD COMPONENTSNON-FOOD CONSUMPTIONNON-FOOD ITEMSNON-POOR HOUSEHOLDSNONFOOD ITEMSOFFICIAL POVERTYOFFICIAL POVERTY RATEPEANUTSPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPOLICY ANALYSISPOLICY RESEARCHPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOTATOESPOVERTY ACROSS PROVINCESPOVERTY ASSESSMENTPOVERTY ASSESSMENTSPOVERTY DYNAMICSPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATESPOVERTY INCIDENCEPOVERTY INDICATORSPOVERTY LEVELSPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY MEASUREMENTPOVERTY PROFILEPOVERTY RANKINGSPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPOVERTY STATUSPRICE CHANGESPRICE VECTORPROTEINRANK CORRELATIONREDUCTION IN POVERTYREGIONAL DIFFERENTIALSREGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONREGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTHREGIONAL LEVELREGIONAL PATTERNREGIONAL POVERTYREGIONAL POVERTY LINESREGIONAL PRICEREGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENCESREGIONAL PRODUCTIVITYREGIONAL VARIATIONRELATIVE PRICESRURALRURAL AREARURAL AREASRURAL COUNTERPARTSRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POVERTYRURAL POVERTY RATESSANITATIONSCALAR ADJUSTMENTSHEEPSINGLE POVERTYSINGLE POVERTY LINESPATIAL CORRELATIONSPATIAL DISPARITYSPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONSPATIAL VARIATIONSTOCHASTIC DOMINANCETOMATOESUNEMPLOYMENTURBAN AREAURBAN AREASURBAN HOUSEHOLDSUTILITY LEVELWELFARE DISTRIBUTIONWELFARE IMPROVEMENTSWELFARE INDICATORSWELFARE LEVELSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6217