Murgai, RinkuLanjouw, Peter2012-03-192012-03-192009-03-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4054The authors analyze five rounds of National Sample Survey data covering 1983, 1987/8, 1993/4, 1999/0, and 2004/5 to explore the relationship between rural diversification and poverty. Poverty in rural India declined at a modest rate during this period. The authors provide region-level estimates that illustrate considerable geographic heterogeneity in this progress. Poverty estimates correlate well with region-level data on changes in agricultural wage rates. Agricultural labor remains the preserve of the uneducated and also to a large extent of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Although agricultural labor grew as a share of total economic activity over the first four rounds, it had fallen back to the levels observed at the beginning of the survey period by 2004. This all-India trajectory masks widely varying trends across states. During this period, the rural non-farm sector grew modestly, mainly between the last two survey rounds. Regular non-farm employment remains largely associated with education levels and social status that are rare among the poor. However, casual labor and self-employment in the non-farm sector reveal greater involvement by disadvantaged groups in 2004 than in the preceding rounds. The implication for poverty is not immediately clear - the poor may be pushed into low-return casual non-farm activities due to lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector rather than being pulled by high returns offered by the non-farm sector. Econometric estimates reveal that expansion of the non-farm sector is associated with falling poverty via two routes: a direct impact on poverty that is likely due to a pro-poor marginal incidence of non-farm employment expansion; and an indirect impact attributable to the positive effect of non-farm employment growth on agricultural wages. The analysis also confirms the important contribution to rural poverty reduction from agricultural productivity, availability of land, and consumption levels in proximate urban areas.CC BY 3.0 IGOADULT MALESAGE GROUPSAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTAGRICULTURAL GROWTHAGRICULTURAL LABORAGRICULTURAL LABORERSAGRICULTURAL LABOURAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL WAGEAGRICULTURAL WAGE EMPLOYMENTAGRICULTURAL WAGE LABORAGRICULTURAL WAGESAGRICULTURAL WORKERSCASUAL WORKERSCHANGES IN POVERTYCOMPARABILITY PROBLEMSCONSUMPTION POVERTYCONSUMPTION QUINTILESCORRELATES OF POVERTYCRISESCROPCROP PRODUCTIONCROPSCULTIVATIONDAILY WAGEDATA QUALITYDECLINE IN POVERTYDEMOCRACYDETERMINANT OF POVERTYDETERMINANTS OF POVERTYDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDISADVANTAGED GROUPSDRIVERSECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATIONECONOMIC GROWTHEMPLOYEEEMPLOYMENT GENERATIONEMPLOYMENT GROWTHEMPLOYMENT LEVELSEMPLOYMENT PATTERNSEMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIESEMPLOYMENT RATEEMPLOYMENT RATESEMPLOYMENT SHAREEMPLOYMENT STATUSEMPLOYMENT TRENDSESTIMATES OF POVERTYEXTERNALITIESFARMFARM ACTIVITIESFARM ECONOMYFARM EMPLOYMENTFARM GROWTHFARM INCOMEFARM INCOME SHAREFARM INCOMESFARM PRODUCTIONFARM PRODUCTIVITYFARM PRODUCTSFARM SECTORFARM SELF- EMPLOYMENTFARM SELF-EMPLOYMENTFARM WORKERSFEMALE WORKERSGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGRAINHARVESTINGHOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPACT ON POVERTYINCIDENCE OF POVERTYINCOME EARNINGINCOME SHARESINDICATORS OF POVERTYINEQUALITYJOBSLABOR ECONOMICSLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLABOR MARKETSLAND AVAILABILITYLAND HOLDINGSLANDHOLDINGSLONG-TERM EMPLOYMENTMOTIVATIONNON-FARM EMPLOYMENTNON-FARM SECTOROCCUPATIONOCCUPATIONSPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOORPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOPULATION GROWTHPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY RATESPRECEDING SECTIONSPRESENT EVIDENCEPRESENT STUDYPRESENTED EVIDENCEPREVIOUS SECTIONPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIMARY SCHOOLPRIMARY SCHOOL EDUCATIONPRODUCEPRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIESPRODUCTIVITY DATAPUBLIC SPENDINGREAL WAGEREAL WAGESREDUCTION IN POVERTYREGULAR EMPLOYMENTREGULAR JOBSREGULAR WORKERSRETAIL TRADERURALRURAL AREARURAL AREASRURAL EMPLOYMENTRURAL GROWTHRURAL HOUSEHOLDRURAL HOUSEHOLD INCOMERURAL INCOMERURAL INCOME GENERATIONRURAL INDUSTRIESRURAL INEQUALITYRURAL LABORRURAL LIVELIHOODSRURAL LIVING STANDARDSRURAL POORRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POVERTYRURAL POVERTY REDUCTIONRURAL WORKFORCESAFETYSAFETY NETSALARIED EMPLOYMENTSELF EMPLOYMENTSKILLED LABORSOWINGTOTAL EMPLOYMENTTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRANSPLANTINGUNEMPLOYEDUNEMPLOYMENTWAGE DATAWAGE DETERMINATIONWAGE GROWTHWAGE INCREASEWAGE RATEWAGE RATESWELFARE IMPROVEMENTSWORKERYIELDSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4858