De Hoyos, Rafael E.Medvedev, Denis2012-03-192012-03-192009-03-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4082The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially, with nearly all of the increase in extreme poverty occurring in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.CC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIESAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITYAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL INCOMESAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAGRICULTURAL PRICESAGRICULTURAL PRODUCERSAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITYAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTURAL SELF-EMPLOYMENTAGRICULTURAL WAGEAGRICULTURECACALORIC INTAKECENTRAL BANKSCHANGES IN POVERTYCLIMATE CHANGECOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCOMPETITION POLICYCONSUMER DEMANDCONSUMER DEMANDSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER PRICESCONSUMPTION BASKETCONSUMPTION PATTERNSCORNCROP YIELDSDEMOGRAPHICDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESDEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTUREDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT ISSUESDOLLAR POVERTY INCIDENCEDOMESTIC COMPETITIONDOMESTIC MARKETDOMESTIC MARKETSDOMESTIC PRICEECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC REVIEWECONOMIC THEORYEMPIRICAL QUESTIONENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSEXPENSIVE FOODEXPORT PRICE INDEXEXTREME POVERTYEXTREME POVERTY LINEFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFAIR TRADEFARM ACTIVITIESFARM HOUSEHOLDSFARM INCOMESFARMERFARMERSFARMING ACTIVITIESFINANCIAL CRISISFOOD BASKETFOOD BASKETSFOOD BUNDLEFOOD BUYERSFOOD COMMODITIESFOOD CONSUMERSFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD EXPENDITUREFOOD ITEMFOOD ITEMSFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOOD PRICINGFOOD PRODUCERSFOOD SHAREFOOD STAPLESFOOD SUPPLYFREE TRADEGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTSGLOBAL POVERTYGOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONGRAINSGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHARMONIZATIONHEADCOUNT RATIOHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIESHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD LEVELHOUSEHOLD PER CAPITA INCOMEHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHOUSEHOLD SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD WELFAREIMPACT ON POVERTYINCIDENCE OF POVERTYINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME GAINSINCOME GROUPSINCOME ON FOODINEQUALITYINFLATION RATESINSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTSINTERNATIONAL TRADELABOR MARKETLAND PRICESLIBERALIZATIONLIVING STANDARDSLOCAL CURRENCYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMARKET ACCESSMARKET CONDITIONSMARKET DISTORTIONSMEAN INCOMEMEATSMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMILLION PEOPLENATIONAL POVERTYNATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNTNATURAL RESOURCESNET FOOD CONSUMERSNEW POORNON-FOOD CONSUMPTIONNON-FOOD EXPENDITURENON-FOOD ITEMSNONFOOD ITEMSPADDYPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPOLICY RESEARCHPOORPOOR CONSUMERSPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOOR INFRASTRUCTUREPOOR PEOPLEPOORER HOUSEHOLDSPOORER REGIONSPOVERTY ESTIMATESPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY INCREASEPOVERTY INDICATORPOVERTY INDICATORSPOVERTY INDICESPOVERTY LINESPOVERTY POVERTYPOVERTY RATEPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE CHANGESPRICES INCREASEPROCESSED FOODSPURCHASING POWERREAL INCOMESREAL TERMSREDUCTION IN POVERTYRELATIVE PRICERELATIVE PRICESRURALRURAL AREASRURAL HOUSEHOLDRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL INCOMERURAL POVERTYRURAL WELFARESAVINGSSMALL FARMERSSUGARSUGAR CANETARGETINGTOTAL POVERTYURBAN AREAURBAN AREASURBAN CONSUMERSURBAN HOUSEHOLDSWAGE EARNERSWAGE PREMIUMWELFARE INDICATORWELFARE MEASURESWHEATWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD TRADEWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4887