López-Cálix, J.R.Srinivasan, T.G.Waheed, Muhammad2014-04-172014-04-172012-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/17875This paper explores stylized facts of Pakistan's growth patterns. It identifies the short-lived predominant character of its increasingly scarce growth accelerations, the average volatility of the growth rate by international standards, the high but decreasing correlation between overall growth and agricultural growth, the long term decline of its growth (potential) rate to around 4.5 percent, well below the 6 percent rate of the 1960s or from the 7 percent rate required for absorbing the young labor force. It also explores the dramatically steady fall in productivity during the 2000s (measured by Total Factor Productivity) and, to a lesser extent, capital accumulation as main reasons of such decline. The paper analyzes the role factor accumulation plays in long-term labor reallocation across sectors, with industry stalling, agriculture still playing a major role that goes beyond its own contribution to GDP, and services playing an increasing role in creating employment, but on low productivity jobs. Growth acceleration is not assured and Pakistan will need to create more jobs moving from agriculture to industry and services in activities where productivity is higher, but to do this, curbing the factors that constraint growth overall and sectoral and Total Factor Productivity in particular will be essential.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTING FRAMEWORKACCOUNTING MODELSACTUAL GROWTHAGRICULTURAL GROWTHAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTUREANNUAL GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTH RATESBLOATED BUREAUCRACYCAPITA GROWTHCAPITAL ACCUMULATIONCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL STOCKCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGECOMPETITIVENESSCONSTANT RETURNSCORRELATION COEFFICIENTDATA QUALITYDEBTDEVELOPMENT INDICATORSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC SAVINGECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC HISTORYECONOMIC MANAGEMENTECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC REFORMECONOMIC RESEARCHECONOMIC SURVEYSECONOMIC UNCERTAINTYEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTEMPIRICAL EVIDENCEEMPIRICAL TERMSEMPLOYMENTEXTERNAL SHOCKSFACTOR ACCUMULATIONFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFINANCIAL LIBERALIZATIONFINANCIAL SECTORFISCAL DEFICITSFLUCTUATIONSFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTGDPGLOBAL ECONOMYGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH ACCELERATIONSGROWTH ACCOUNTINGGROWTH DIAGNOSTICSGROWTH INVESTMENTGROWTH MODELSGROWTH PATTERNGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH POTENTIALGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESGROWTH THEORYGROWTH VOLATILITYGROWTH WITHOUT DEVELOPMENTHIGH GROWTHHUMAN CAPITALIMPERFECT COMPETITIONINCOMEINCOME LEVELSINCREASING RETURNSINCREASING RETURNS TO SCALEINFLATION RATESINHERITANCEINSURANCEINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDLABOR FORCELABOR INPUTLABOR SUPPLYLEVEL PLAYING FIELDLONG RUNLOW INFLATIONMACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITYMACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCEMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMACROECONOMICSMASS EDUCATIONNEGATIVE IMPACTOUTPUT GROWTHPAYMENT CRISISPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY STANCEPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPOLITICAL STABILITYPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE STABILITYPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE SECTORPRIVATIZATIONPRODUCTION FUNCTIONPRODUCTION FUNCTIONSPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC SECTORPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYRAPID GROWTHRATE OF GROWTHREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREMITTANCESRURAL AREASRURAL POORSAVING RATESECTOR REFORMSSHORTAGESSIGNIFICANT FACTORSTAGFLATIONSTAGNATIONSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTATE OF TECHNOLOGYSTRUCTURAL CHANGESTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONTECHNICAL CHANGETFPTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE LIBERALIZATIONUNSKILLED LABORVOLATILITY10.1596/17875