Kaminski, JonathanChristiaensen, LucGilbert, Christopher L.2014-06-252014-06-252014-06https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18771This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase and increasing when they decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTUREANALYSIS OF VARIANCEARBITRAGEARIMAAVERAGE PRICEBANANASBARSBENCHMARKCAPITAL MARKETSCARROTSCASSAVACEREALSCOMMERCECOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICECONSUMERSCONSUMPTION LEVELSCOOKINGCOST OF CAPITALCREDIT CONSTRAINTSDEBTSDEFLATIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDOMESTIC MARKETSDOMESTIC PRICEDURABLE GOODSECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMICS LITERATUREENTRY POINTSEXCHANGE RATESEXPENDITUREEXPENDITURESEXPORT MARKETFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL MARKETSFINANCIAL TRANSACTIONSFLOURFOOD CONSUMPTIONFOOD CROPSFOOD INTAKEFOOD MARKETSFOOD POLICYFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOOD PRODUCTIONFOOD PRODUCTSFOOD SECURITYFOOD SHORTAGESFOOD STAPLESFOOD STORAGEFOOD TRANSFERSFOODSFRUITSFUTURESGAUGEGINI COEFFICIENTGRAINSGROUNDNUTSIMPERFECT COMPETITIONINCOMEINEQUALITY MEASURESINFLATIONINTERNATIONAL MARKETSINTERNATIONAL TRADELIBERALIZATIONLIQUIDITYLOCAL CURRENCIESLOCAL CURRENCYMAIZEMARKET INTEGRATIONMARKET POWERMARKET PRICEMARKET PRICESMARKET STRUCTUREMARKETINGMARKETPLACEMARKETPLACESMOBILE PHONEMOBILE PHONESMONOPOLIESMORTGAGESOPPORTUNITY COSTORANGESPERISHABILITYPORKPOTATOESPRICE ELASTICITYPRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMANDPRICE INDEXPRICE MOVEMENTPRICE MOVEMENTSPRICE RISKPRICE SERIESPRICE THEORYPRICE TRENDSPRICE VOLATILITYPRODUCT MARKETPRODUCTIVE ASSETSPULSESPURCHASINGPURCHASING POWERRANDOM WALKRATE OF RETURNREGIONAL TRADERETAILRETAIL MARKETSRETAIL PRICESRICESEASONAL FACTORSEASONAL FACTORSSPREADSTAPLE FOODSSTOCK EXCHANGESUBSTITUTESUBSTITUTIONSUGARSUPPLY INCREASESSWEET POTATOESTHIRD WORLDTOMATOESTRANSACTION COSTSTROUGHTUBERSUNDUE INFLUENCEVEGETABLESVOLATILITYWHEATWHEAT FLOURWHOLESALE MARKETSWHOLESALE PRICEWHOLESALE PRICESWORLD MARKETWORLD MARKETSYAMS10.1596/1813-9450-6907