Page, John2017-08-282017-08-282009https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27998After stagnating for much of its postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and declines, and much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since 1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but changes in such 'growth determinants' as investment, export diversification, and productivity have not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these variables and the significant role played by natural resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports, building the African private sector, and creating new skills.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE VALUEACCOUNTABILITYAGGREGATE LEVELAGRICULTUREAUCTIONSAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTH RATEAVERAGE INCOMEAVERAGE INCOMESBARRIERS TO ENTRYBUREAUCRACYBUSINESS CLIMATEBUSINESS DEVELOPMENTBUSINESS ENVIRONMENTCAPITAL FLIGHTCAPITAL MARKETSCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICECOMMODITY PRICESCOMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGYCOMPETITION POLICYCOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGESCOMPETITIVENESSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONTRACT ENFORCEMENTCORRUPTIONCOUNTRY CASECOUNTRY COVERAGECOUNTRY DATACOUNTRY LEVELCRIMECURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCEDEBTDECISION MAKINGDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEREGULATIONDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING REGIONSDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEDEVELOPMENT INDICATORSDEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERSDEVELOPMENT PROJECTSDIRECT INVESTMENTECONOMETRIC MODELSECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC DECLINEECONOMIC EXPANSIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC HISTORYECONOMIC OUTLOOKECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC STRUCTUREECONOMIES OF SCALEEMPIRICAL LITERATUREEMPIRICAL RESULTSESTIMATED COEFFICIENTSEXCESS DEMANDEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATESEXPORT DIVERSIFICATIONEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT PROMOTIONEXPORTSEXTERNAL SHOCKSFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL MANAGEMENTFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMSFINANCIAL SYSTEMSFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICYFIXED CAPITALFOOD PRICESFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTSFORMAL ECONOMYGDPGDP DEFLATORGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL MARKETSGOVERNANCE INDICATORGOVERNANCE INDICATORSGOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESSGROWTH DETERMINANTSGROWTH LITERATUREGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHEALTH CAREHIGH GROWTHHIGH INFLATIONHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINCOME DATAINCOME GROWTHINCOME INEQUALITYINCOME LEVELINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTINDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESINEQUALITYINFANT MORTALITYINFLATIONINSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCEINSTITUTIONAL REFORMSINSTITUTIONAL VARIABLESINSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSESINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETSINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTINVESTMENT CLIMATEINVESTMENT RATEINVESTMENT RATESJOB CREATIONLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLANDLOCKED COUNTRIESLIFE EXPECTANCYLONG-RUN GROWTHLONG­RUNMACRO POLICYMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENTMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMARKET INFRASTRUCTUREMARKET REGULATIONMASSIVE INVESTMENTSMEAN GROWTHMULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONSNATIONAL ACCOUNTSNATIONAL INCOMENATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESNEGATIVE IMPACTOIL EXPORTERSOUTPUTOUTPUT RATIOSPER CAPITA GROWTHPER CAPITA INCOMEPERFORMANCE INDICATORSPOLICY MAKERSPOLICY PERSPECTIVEPOLICY REFORMSPOLITICAL COMPETITIONPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL INSTITUTIONSPOLITICAL LEADERSPOLITICAL STABILITYPOLITICAL SUPPORTPOOR COUNTRIESPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE MOVEMENTSPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENTPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC EMPLOYMENTPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPUBLIC INSTITUTIONSPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC POLICYPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENTPUBLIC WORKSPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYRAPID EXPANSIONRAPID GROWTHRATE OF GROWTHREAL EXCHANGE RATEREGULATORY QUALITYREGULATORY REGIMERICH COUNTRIESRULE OF LAWRURAL INFRASTRUCTURESAVINGSSHARP REDUCTIONSMALL ENTERPRISESSMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURESOCIAL OUTCOMESSOCIAL VARIABLESSTANDARD DEVIATIONSTATISTICAL ANALYSISSTRUCTURAL BREAKSTRUCTURAL POLICIESTELECOMMUNICATIONSTELEPHONESTOTAL COSTSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE REFORMSTRADE REGIMETRANSACTION COSTSTRANSPARENCYTRANSPARENCY INITIATIVEUNEMPLOYMENTVOLATILITYWAGESWEALTHWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWTOYOUTHWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/27998