Arbache, JorgeGo, Delfin S.Page, John2012-05-292012-05-292008-02https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6527In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.CC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE VALUEACCOUNTABILITYADJUSTMENT POLICIESAGGREGATE INVESTMENTAGGREGATE LEVELAGGREGATE OUTPUTAGRICULTUREANNUAL GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTHAVERAGE GROWTH RATEAVERAGE GROWTH RATESAVERAGE INCOMEAVERAGE INCOMESBAD GOVERNANCECAPITA GROWTHCAPITAL MARKETSCASE STUDIESCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCOMMON MARKETCOMPETITIVE EXCHANGECOMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATECOMPETITIVENESSCONNECTIVITYCONSUMER PRICECONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER PRICE INDEXESCONSUMERSCORRELATION ANALYSISCORRELATION COEFFICIENTCORRELATION COEFFICIENTSCORRUPTIONCOUNTRY DATACOUNTRY INITIATIVECOUNTRY LEVELCRITICAL MASSCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCEDEBTDEBT RELIEFDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEVELOPED COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING REGIONSDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEDEVELOPMENT GOALSDEVELOPMENT INDICATORSDIRECT INVESTMENTDOMESTIC INFLATIONECONOMIC BOOMECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC CONTRACTIONECONOMIC CONTRACTIONSECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC EXPANSIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC MANAGEMENTECONOMIC OUTLOOKECONOMIC PERFORMANCEEMPIRICAL STUDIESESTIMATED COEFFICIENTSEXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTSEXCHANGE RATE REGIMEEXCHANGE RATESEXPORT DIVERSIFICATIONEXPORTSEXPOSUREEXTERNAL SHOCKSFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL POLICYFIXED CAPITALFIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMESFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATEFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMEFOOD PRICESFOREIGN AIDFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTSFOREIGN INVESTMENTSFUTURE GROWTHGDPGDP DEFLATORGDP PER CAPITAGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBALIZATIONGOVERNANCE INDICATORGOVERNANCE INDICATORSGOVERNMENT CONSUMPTIONGOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESSGROWTH EPISODEGROWTH PATHGROWTH PATTERNGROWTH PERFORMANCEGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESGROWTH VOLATILITYHARMONIZATIONHIGH GROWTHHIGH INFLATIONHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINCOMEINCOME GROWTHINCOME LEVELINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIESINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIESINFANT MORTALITYINFLATIONINSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTINSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCEINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETSINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDLANDLOCKED COUNTRIESLIFE EXPECTANCYLOCAL CURRENCYLONG-RUN GROWTHLONG-TERM GROWTHLOW INCOMELOW INCOME COUNTRIESLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESLOW-INCOME COUNTRYMACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORKMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITYMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENTMACROECONOMIC POLICYMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATIONMARGINAL RETURNSMEAN GROWTHMIDDLE EASTMIDDLE INCOMEMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIESMONETARY UNIONNATIONAL ACCOUNTSNATURAL DISASTERSNET EXPORTSNORTH AFRICAOIL EXPORTERSOUTPUT GROWTHOUTPUT RATIOOUTPUT VOLATILITYOUTPUTSPER CAPITA GROWTHPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY CIRCLESPOLICY RESEARCHPOLITICAL CONDITIONSPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPOLITICAL STABILITYPOOR COUNTRIESPRICE INCREASESPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE INVESTMENTSPRIVATE SECTORPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC POLICYPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENTPURCHASING POWERPURCHASING POWER PARITYRAPID GROWTHRATE OF GROWTHREAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATEREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREGIONAL GROUPINGSREGULATORY QUALITYRELATIVE IMPORTANCEREPUTATIONRICH COUNTRIESRICH ECONOMIESRULE OF LAWSAHARASAVINGSSHARE OF WORLD TRADESHARP REDUCTIONSMALL COUNTRIESSOCIAL OUTCOMESSOCIAL VARIABLESSTAGNATIONSTANDARD ERRORSSTRUCTURAL BREAKSTRUCTURAL POLICIESSUB-SAHARAN AFRICATAXATIONTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETHE GAMBIATRADE SHOCKSVALUE ADDEDWEALTHWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-4519