World Bank2013-03-072013-03-072012-03-15https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12608This paper explores Liberia's policy options in support of the development of a Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for 2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. At issue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and the enormous development needs that the government must resolve as it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-income country by 2040. This dilemma calls for the new administration to make trade-offs among various priorities if it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, a Liberian version of a single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed and informed by analytical studies as well as sector strategies prepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paper examines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and social indicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A base scenario (designed to represent a central case for the evolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was first established, and thereafter a set of different assumptions were introduced for the mining sector, government spending on infrastructure and human development, and foreign borrowing. The paper is organized into five sections including this introduction. Section two presents the basic features of MAMS. The simulation analysis, which is the focus of the paper, is covered in the next two sections: the base scenario in section three and a set of alternative scenarios, which are contrasted with the base scenario, in section four. The final section summarizes the main findings and conclusion. Appendices one and two include a set of figures with selected simulation results and a brief discussion of the Liberian database for MAMS, respectively.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABSOLUTE VALUEACCOUNTINGACCUMULATION OF CAPITALADDITIONAL UNIT OF CAPITALAGRICULTURAL SECTORSAGRICULTUREBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICITBENCHMARKBUDGET CONSTRAINTBUDGET CONSTRAINTSCAPITAL ACCOUNTCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL INTENSITYCAPITAL STOCKCAPITAL STOCKSCENTRAL BANKCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY MARKETSCONSUMPTION DECISIONSCONSUMPTION GROWTHCREDIT FACILITYCURRENCYCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITDATA AVAILABILITYDEBTDEBT CAPITALDEBT INTERESTDEBT STOCKDEBT STOCKSDEMAND CURVESDEMAND DECLINESDEPRECIATIONDEPRECIATION RATEDEPRECIATION RATESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPMENT POLICIESDEVELOPMENT STRATEGYDISPOSABLE INCOMEDOMESTIC BORROWINGDOMESTIC CONSUMPTIONDOMESTIC DEBTDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITIESDOMESTIC MARKETDOMESTIC MARKETSDOMESTIC PRICEDOMESTIC PRICE LEVELSDOMESTIC PRICESDOMESTIC SAVINGSDONOR RESOURCESECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC GROWTHEDUCATION SPENDINGEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTSELASTICITYELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEXPORTSEXTERNAL BALANCEFACTOR DEMANDFACTOR MARKETSFACTORS OF PRODUCTIONFINANCESFINANCIAL MANAGEMENTFINANCIAL RESOURCESFIXED INVESTMENTFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN DEBTSFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN GOVERNMENTFOREIGN INTERESTFOREIGN TRANSACTIONSFULL EMPLOYMENTGDPGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGINI COEFFICIENTGOLDGOVERNMENT BORROWINGGOVERNMENT BUDGETGOVERNMENT CAPACITYGOVERNMENT DEBTGOVERNMENT INVESTMENTSGOVERNMENT REVENUEGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROSS NATIONAL INCOMEGROSS NATIONAL SAVINGSGROWTH RATEHOLDINGSHOUSEHOLDSHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPORTIMPORT GROWTHIMPORT TARIFFSIMPORTSINCOMESINEQUALITYINFORMATION SERVICESINITIAL INVESTMENTINTEREST PAYMENTSINTERNAL RATES OF RETURNINVESTMENT CLIMATEINVESTMENT FINANCINGINVESTMENT FLOWINVESTMENT SPENDINGLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENTMACROECONOMICSMARGINAL PRODUCTIVITYMARGINAL VALUEMARKET PRICESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRYMONETARY FUNDNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL INCOMENATURAL RESOURCESOPERATIONAL EFFICIENCYOUTPUTOUTPUTSOUTTURNOUTTURNSPAYMENT FLOWSPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE CHANGEPRICE CHANGESPRICE LEVELSPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE SAVINGSPRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENTPRODUCTIVITY INCREASESPROFIT MAXIMIZATIONPUBLIC POLICYPUBLIC SPENDINGRAPID EXPANSIONRAPID GROWTHRATES FOR EXPORTSREAL APPRECIATIONREAL COSTREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREAL GROWTH RATESREAL INTERESTREAL INTEREST RATESRECEIPTRECEIPTSRELATIVE PRICERELATIVE PRICESRETURNSSALES REVENUESAVINGSSAVINGS RATESHARE OF INVESTMENTSSLOW GROWTHSMALL COUNTRYSTOCK CHANGESUPPLY CURVESUPPLY CURVESSUPPLY SIDESURPLUSTAXTAX RATETAX RATESTELECOMMUNICATIONSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE DEFICITTRADE TRANSACTIONSTRANSACTIONS COSTSUNCERTAINTYUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEWAGESWEIGHTSWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD MARKETSWORLD PRICEWORLD PRICESWorld Bank10.1596/12608