Sulla, VictorSugawara, NaotakaTaylor, AshleyTiongson, Erwin R.2012-08-132012-08-132010-05https://hdl.handle.net/10986/10185The financial crisis and economic downturn threatens the welfare of more than 160 million people who are poor or are just above the poverty line in the economies of Eastern and Central Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Turkey. This note concerns the findings of recent World Bank analysis (Tiongson et al. 2010) that uses precrisis household data and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes in these countries to simulate the impact of the crisis on households, transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks. The adverse effects are widespread, with both poor and non-poor households being vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, it is estimated that some 11 million more people will be in poverty and more than 23 million additional people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO EDUCATIONADVERSE EFFECTSANALYTICAL APPROACHASSETSBANK LOANSCENTRAL BANKCENTRAL BANKSCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCONSOLIDATIONCREDIT MARKETCREDIT MARKETSCURRENCY VALUEDATA AVAILABILITYDEBTDEBT BURDENDEBT SERVICEDEBT SERVICE PAYMENTSDEPRECIATIONSDEVELOPING ECONOMIESDURABLEDURABLE GOODSECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC DOWNTURNECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC SHOCKSEMPLOYMENTEQUITY HOLDINGSEUROPEAN CENTRAL BANKEXCHANGE RATEEXPENDITURESEXPORT REVENUESEXTERNAL FINANCEFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL MARKETSFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SECTORSFINANCIAL STABILITYFINANCING SOURCESFISCAL CONSOLIDATIONFISCAL POLICYFOOD SHAREFOREIGN CURRENCYGLOBAL SLOWDOWNGOVERNMENT DEFICITSGOVERNMENT POLICYHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD WELFAREHOUSINGHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMPACT OF SHOCKSINCOMEINCOME SHOCKSINCOMESINDEBTED HOUSEHOLDSINDEBTEDNESSINTEREST PAYMENTINVESTMENT EXPENDITURESLABOR MARKETLIVING STANDARDSLOANLOCAL CURRENCYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC SHOCKSMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIGRATIONMONETARY FUNDMORTGAGEMORTGAGE DEBTNATIONAL BANKNATIONAL BANK OF HUNGARYPAYMENT OBLIGATIONSPENSIONSPOLICY RESPONSEPOLICY RESPONSESPOOR PEOPLEPOVERTY ASSESSMENTPOVERTY IMPACTPOVERTY LINEPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE INCREASESPUBLIC SPENDINGREDUCTION IN POVERTYREGIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL POVERTYREGIONAL RECESSIONRELATIVE PRICESREMITTANCESAFETY NETSSAVINGSSLOWDOWNSOCIAL PROTECTIONSOCIAL SAFETY NETSSOCIAL SERVICESSUBREGIONSSVERIGES RIKSBANKUNEMPLOYMENT RATESVARIABLE INTEREST RATESVULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDSVULNERABLE PEOPLEWAGESWEALTH EFFECTSWorld Bank10.1596/10185