Lakatos, CsillaIanchovichina, ElenaDevarajan, Shantayanan2016-02-032016-02-032016-02https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOOIL IMPORTERSTIME HORIZONAUTOMOBILEAUTO PRODUCTIONCANEECONOMIC GROWTHOIL PRICEANIMAL PRODUCTSPRODUCTIONSTRUCTURAL CHANGEVEHICLESACTIVITIESTRADE BARRIERSOIL OUTPUTOIL SUPPLYEXPORTSWOOD PRODUCTSELASTICITYEXPORTERSWELFAREECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSEQUILIBRIUMGASBARRELS PER DAYCRUDE OIL EXTRACTIONPRICEEFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTTAXDOMESTIC OILINPUTSOIL CONSUMPTIONOIL PRODUCTIONPAYMENTSMARKET ACCESSAIRTRANSPORT SERVICESCENTRAL BANKOILSOIL PRICESPETROLEUMTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYOIL DEMANDEFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTSGLOBAL ECONOMYECONOMIC RESTRICTIONSCOSTSAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESPER CAPITA INCOMEOILTRADE RESTRICTIONSDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSTRANSPORTREFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTSOIL ACCOUNTSTRADING BLOCSBASE YEARPRODUCTIVITYWATERDOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTIONGAS TECHNOLOGYMARKETSWTOOIL IMPORTSWORLD PRICESTRUESUGAR CANEIMPORTSAUTOMOBILE PRODUCTIONTRANSPORT EQUIPMENTUTILITYSUPPLY RESPONSETAXESAUTOMOBILESBORDER TRADECONSUMPTIONGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMDRIVINGTRAVELTRANSPORTATIONOIL MARKETCAPITALWAGESGLOBAL MARKETPOLICIESFINANCIAL TRANSACTIONSINTERNATIONAL TRADEOWNERSHIP STRUCTURECARSPOWERCOMPETITIVENESSELECTRICITYPRICE OF OILPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATIONWORLD ECONOMYDEMANDOIL IMPORTING COUNTRIESUTILITY FUNCTIONOIL EXPORTING COUNTRIESECONOMYCONSUMERSAGRICULTUREEXCESS DEMANDMOTOR VEHICLESCHEMICAL PRODUCTSOIL EXPORTSTARIFF BARRIERSNET OILBENCHMARKEXPORT REVENUECAPITAL GOODSCAPITAL USETRADEWORLD PRICEFOREIGN COMPETITIONNATURAL GASAIR TRANSPORTGDPGOODSTHEORYBILATERAL TRADEOIL EXPORTERSINVESTMENTCOALTARIFFSUPPLYCRUDE OILSEA TRANSPORTTARIFFS ON IMPORTSREGIME CHANGEPETROLEUM PRODUCTSTRANSPORT COSTSOUTCOMESTRADING PARTNERSOIL USETRADE REGIMEEXPORT COMMODITYPRICESAPPROACHBENEFITSECONOMIESENERGYDEVELOPMENT POLICYWorking PaperWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-7549