World Bank2015-03-112015-03-112015-02https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21597The development objective of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) economic and social impact assessment is to provide the Iraqi Government with an impact analysis of the current crisis at the regional level. This will provide a foundation for international efforts to assist the KRG in its efforts to rally humanitarian support. The events which motivate this study include: the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011; and the insurgency of the ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) group, which began in June 2014. The violence and atrocities associated with each of these two events caused tens of thousands to flee their homes and many chose the relative safety of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), as refugees from the Syrian conflict and as internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the ISIS crisis. These events took place in the context of the fiscal crisis, which caused about a 90 percent drop in fiscal transfers from the central government in Baghdad starting in early 2014. This report provides the government with a technical assessment of the impact and stabilization costs associated with the influx of refugees and IDPs. Impact refers to the immediate economic and fiscal effects on the KRG economy and budget, while stabilization cost refers to the additional spending that will be needed to restore the welfare of residents of the KRI. The report is the outcome of a process in which a World Bank team engaged intensively on the ground with regional government institutions and international partners to gather and mobilize data from disparate sources into a structured narrative and integrated technical presentation from which all stakeholders can draw to help them design and implement strategies for coping with the crisis.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS LEVELSACCESS TO FINANCEACCOUNTINGAGGREGATE DEMANDAGRICULTURE ORGANIZATIONANNUAL BUDGETARREARSASSISTANCE TO REFUGEESBANK LOANBANKING SECTORBANKRUPTCYBASELINE CALCULATIONSBASELINE SCENARIOBASIC NEEDSBASIC SERVICESBIDSBLACK MARKETBUDGET ALLOCATIONBUDGET CRISESBUDGET CRISISBUDGET DATABUDGET DEFICITSBUDGET LAWBUDGET SUPPORTBUDGET TRANSFERSBUDGETARY RESOURCESBUDGETINGCAPITAL BUDGETCAPITAL EXPENDITURESCAPITAL INVESTMENTCAPITAL INVESTMENTSCAPITAL SPENDINGCAPITAL STOCKCAPITAL STOCKSCASH TRANSFERCASH TRANSFERSCENTRAL BUDGETCENTRAL GOVERNMENTCENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETCIVIL SERVANTSCOMMERCIAL BANKSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMPTION GOODSCURRENCYDEBTDEBT ISSUANCESDEBT STOCKDEFENSE EXPENDITURESDEPOSITDEPOSITSDEVELOPMENT CORPORATIONDISBURSEMENTSDIVERSIFICATIONDOMESTIC BORROWINGEARNINGSECONOMIC ACTIVITIESECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC GROWTH RATEECONOMIC GROWTH RATESEDUCATION SERVICESEDUCATION SYSTEMEDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIESELASTICITIESEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIESENTREPRENEURSEQUIPMENTEXCHANGE RATEEXPENDITUREEXPENDITURESEXPORTEREXTERNAL DEBTFAMILIESFARMERSFEDERAL BUDGETFINANCIAL ASSETSFINANCIAL COSTFINANCIAL RESOURCESFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SERVICESFINANCIAL SUPPORTFISCAL ACTIVITIESFISCAL BALANCEFISCAL COSTFISCAL CRISISFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL IMPACTFISCAL IMPLICATIONSFISCAL MANAGEMENTFISCAL SUSTAINABILITYFISCAL TRANSFERSFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN FIRMSFOREIGN INVESTMENTFOREIGN INVESTMENTSFOREIGN INVESTORSFUTURESGENDERGLOBAL TRADEGOVERNMENT BUDGETGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGOVERNMENT SUPPORTGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEHEALTH CAREHEALTH EXPENDITUREHEALTH OUTCOMESHEALTH SECTORHEALTH SERVICESHEALTH SPENDINGHOSPITAL SERVICESHOUSEHOLDSHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIDINDIRECT COSTSINFLATIONINFLATIONARY PRESSURESINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTINSURANCEINTEREST PAYMENTSINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTINGINVESTMENT BUDGETINVESTMENT CAPITALINVESTMENT CLIMATEINVESTMENT FLOWSINVESTMENT POLICYINVESTMENT PROJECTSINVESTMENT SPENDINGINVESTOR CONFIDENCEISLAMIC BANKSJOB OPPORTUNITIESLABOR MARKETLANGUAGE BARRIERSLINE OF CREDITLOCAL ECONOMYLOSS OF REVENUEMACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTMACROECONOMIC IMPACTMACROECONOMIC MODELMACROECONOMIC SITUATIONMARKET PRICESMARKET SHAREMARKET TRADEMFIMFISMICROFINANCEMICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONSMICROFINANCE SECTORMINISTRY OF FINANCEMONETARY FUNDMONETARY VALUESNATIONAL ACCOUNTSNATIONAL BUDGETNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL INCOMENATURAL RESOURCESNUTRITIONO&MOIL PRICEOPERATING COSTOPPORTUNITY COSTOUTREACHOUTSTANDING LOANSPENSIONSPHYSICAL CAPITALPOLITICAL STABILITYPORTFOLIOPRIVATE BANKSPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE INVESTORSPRIVATE SECTORPROGRAM MANAGEMENTPROGRAMSPROVISION OF ACCESSPUBLIC CAPITALPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEWPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPUBLIC FINANCEPUBLIC FINANCESPUBLIC GOODSPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC REVENUESPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR SPENDINGPUBLIC SERVICESPUBLIC SPENDINGQUANTITATIVE DATAREFUGEEREFUGEESREGIONAL GOVERNMENTRETURNRISK FACTORROAD MAINTENANCEROAD NETWORKSAFETY NETSAFETY NETSSALARY PAYMENTSSANITATIONSAVINGSSOCIAL ASSISTANCESOCIAL BENEFITSSOCIAL DEVELOPMENTSOCIAL PROTECTIONSOCIAL SAFETY NETSSOCIAL SECURITYSOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONSSTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENTSTRUCTURAL REFORMSTAXTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETELECOMMUNICATIONSTOTAL EXPENDITURESTOTAL PUBLIC SECTORTRADINGUNCERTAINTYUNEMPLOYMENTUNIONVULNERABLE GROUPSWARRANTSWORKING CAPITAL10.1596/21597