Ahmed, Syud AmerDiffenbaugh, Noah S.Hertel, Thomas W.Martin, William J.2012-12-072012-12-072012-07https://hdl.handle.net/10986/11947Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners' usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE CLIMATEAGGREGATE DEMANDAGGREGATE LEVELAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSAGRICULTURAL TRADEALLOCATIONANNUAL PRECIPITATIONATMOSPHERIC CARBONATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDEATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONSBENCHMARKBENCHMARKINGCHANGES IN PRICESCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSISCLIMATE CHANGE DETECTIONCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHCLIMATE CONDITIONSCLIMATE EFFECTSCLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE IMPACTSCLIMATE MODELINGCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE OUTCOMESCLIMATE POLICYCLIMATE PREDICTIONSCLIMATE SHOCKCLIMATE SYSTEMCLIMATESCLIMATIC CHANGECOCO2COMMODITY MARKETSCONSTANT ELASTICITIESCONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALECONSUMER PREFERENCESCONSUMERSDAMAGESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONSDOMESTIC PRICEDOMESTIC PRODUCTIONDROUGHTECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC BENEFITSECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC IMPACTSECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATEECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSELASTICITYELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONEMISSIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSEXCESS DEMANDEXCESS SUPPLYEXPORT BANSEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT PARITYEXPORT PERMITSEXPORT RESTRICTIONSEXPORT TAXEXPORT VALUEEXPORTSEXTREME CLIMATE EVENTSEXTREME DRYEXTREME EVENTSEXTREME HEATFREE TRADEFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGEGCMGDPGENERAL EQUILIBRIUMGLOBAL CLIMATEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICYGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELGLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONSGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATUREGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGEGLOBAL TEMPERATUREGLOBAL TRADEGLOBAL WARMINGGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE FORCINGGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONSGROWTH RATEHIGH TEMPERATURESHURRICANEHURRICANE FREQUENCYIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPORT PARITYIMPORT PRICEIMPORT RESTRICTIONSIMPORT SHAREIMPORTSINCOMEINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINTERNATIONAL PRODUCTIONINTERNATIONAL TRADEIPCCLAND USELOWER PRICESMULTILATERAL TRADENEGATIVE IMPACTSNEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGEOPEN ECONOMYPERFECT COMPETITIONPOLICY RESPONSEPOTENTIAL OUTPUTPPPRECIPITATIONPRICE DECLINESPRICE EFFECTPRICE INCREASEPRICE INCREASESPRICE VOLATILITYPRODUCTIVITYRAINREGIONAL CLIMATEREGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONSRELATIVE PRICESRESOURCE ECONOMICSSCENARIOSSEASONAL PRECIPITATIONSUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURESUBSTITUTIONSUBSTITUTION EFFECTSURFACE TEMPERATURETEMPERATURETEMPERATURE CHANGETEMPERATURE EFFECTSTEMPERATURE RISESTOTAL OUTPUTTRADE AGREEMENTSTRADE BARRIERSTRADE DATATRADE DISCIPLINESTRADE FACILITATIONTRADE INTEGRATIONTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE MODELTRADE POLICIESTRADE POLICYTRADE POLICY ENVIRONMENTTRADE REGIMETRADE REGIMESTRADE RESTRICTIONSTRADING PARTNERSUNCERTAINTIESWAGESWORLD TRADEWTOWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6132