World Bank Group2015-03-092015-03-092015-02https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21562The Rwanda Economic Update reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium-term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook for Rwanda s economy. Rwanda s economic growth recovered in the first three quarters of 2014. The economy grew 7.1 percent. Faster GDP growth reflected higher growth of the services sector, at 9.1 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2013, when the economy suffered from the lagged impact of the 2012 aid shortfall. The first section on macroeconomic issues of this edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines two key questions: What led to the growth recovery in the first three quarters of 2014, and what are growth prospects for 2014, 2015, and 2016? The growth recovery mainly reflected increased government expenditure, which boosted domestic demand such as private consumption and investment. The expansion of domestic demand was partially offset by lower external demand for Rwanda s traditional commodities. Higher government expenditure contributed to growth recovery in the services sector through government consumption of private services. Inflation declined throughout 2014, reflecting lower growth in import prices. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to contribute not only to lower inflation but also to more stable exchange rate, an improved balance of payments, and smaller electricity subsidies. The special focus section of this report identifies and quantifies risks in the agriculture sector, with targeted interventions that complement the lessons learned under PSTA 2/CAADP 1 to more effectively manage these risks and to achieve further growth in the agriculture sector.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOaccountingagricultural practicesAgriculturearrearsauctionbalance of paymentsbank assetsBank Depositbanking sectorbase yearbasket compositionbasket of goodsbidsbilateral exchange ratebilateral exchange ratesbondbond issuancebondsBudget executionbudget implicationsbudgetary supportbudgetingcapacity constraintscapital adequacyCapital Expenditurecapital goodscapital grantscapital marketcapital market developmentcommercial bankscommodity pricescompetitivenessconsolidationConstant valueconsumer basketConsumer goodsConsumer Price Indexconsumption basketconsumption growthcore inflationcouponcoupon ratecredit growthdebtdecentralizationDeficitsDeflationdepositdepreciationdevelopment strategydisbursementDiversification of exportsdomestic borrowingdomestic currencydomestic demanddomestic pricedomestic price leveldurabledurable goodsEconomic DevelopmentEconomic Developmentseconomic growthEconomic Outlookeconomic slowdownEffective Exchange RateequipmentExchange Rateexchange rate flexibilityExchange rate policiesExchange Rate Policyexchange rate regimeExchange rate volatilityexchange ratesExpenditureexpendituresexport capacityexport commoditiesexport competitivenessexport growthexport performanceexternal demandexternal tradefeasibility studiesfinancesfinancial crisisfinancial managementfinancial marketFinancial SectorFinancial Sector Developmentfiscal deficitfiscal policyfixed capitalfood pricefood pricesforeign currencyForeign direct investmentforeign exchangeforeign exchange marketsForeign financingGDPGini coefficientglobal demandgovernment consumptionGovernment expendituregovernment investmentgovernment spendingGross Domestic Productgross fixed capital formationGross valuegrowth projectionsgrowth rategrowth ratesImportimport demandImport growthimport pricesimportsInflationInflation measuresinflation objectivesinflation rateInflation ratesinflationary pressureinformation systeminformation technologyinstrumentinsuranceInterest paymentsInterest RatesInternational Developmentinternational priceinternational pricesinternational reservesinternational tradeInvestment Policyinvestment projectsissuancesland holdingsleading indicatorsliquidityliquidity managementloanlocal governmentlow-income countriesmacroeconomic performanceMacroeconomic stabilityMacroeconomicsmarket informationmarket participantsmaturityMineral pricesMonetary Fundmonetary policymonetary policy transmission mechanismMonetary SectorNational BankNational InvestmentNet exportsnominal depreciationnominal exchange ratenonperforming loansOil Priceoil pricesother currenciesoutturnPoverty ReductionPrice fluctuationsprice indexesprice inflationprice of oilprice volatilityprivate consumptionprivate investmentprivate sectorproductivitypublic expenditurepublic investmentReal Effective Exchange Ratereal effective exchange ratesreal exchange ratereal GDPRecurrent expenditurerelative pricerelative weightsreservesRisk ManagementRisk transfershortfallshortfallsslow growthstable exchange ratestable growthstandard deviationStructural reformssupply sideT-billT-bill rateTaxTax revenueTax revenuesTotal exporttotal exportstotal investmenttotal outputTotal revenuetrade balancetrade deficitTrade DeficitsTrade Statisticstradingtrading partnertrading partnersTreasuryTreasury billsTreasury-bill rateturnoverUncertaintyunderdeveloped financial marketvalue addedWagesweights10.1596/21562