World Bank2014-02-102014-02-102013-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16989The special focus of this fourth economic update is as much a concern for policymakers as for ordinary citizens. This economic update discusses a bold new way of lessening extreme poverty by transferring cash directly to the most vulnerable people. In Tanzania, the success of a similar program piloted by the Tanzania Social Action Fund (TASAF), which includes conditional cash transfers as well as public works for productive infrastructure, is also very encouraging as shown by an independent evaluation. Although cash transfers are promising, as this update discusses, there are risks associated with implementation on a large scale. It will be essential to ensure effective targeting and sound monitoring. And the decision to scale up needs to be embedded in strategic thinking about medium-term fiscal sustainability. The economic update also discusses the state of the economy more broadly. Strong and stable economic growth and gradually declining inflation have been the hallmarks of Tanzania's recent economic performance. Tanzania needs to strike the right balance between making large capital investments and maintaining fiscal discipline. Tanzania needs to maintain fiscal discipline and continue to keep the country's debt and debt-service at acceptable levels to consolidate the gains achieved over the past decade. In this context, the report is organized in two parts: part one is the state of the economy; and part two is money to people: can conditional cash transfers make a difference?en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOMMODATING FISCAL POLICYACCOUNTINGACCUMULATION OF ARREARSAGGREGATE DEMANDAGRICULTUREALLOCATING PUBLIC RESOURCESANNUAL RATEARREARSBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBANKING SECTORSBASELINE SCENARIOBASIC SERVICESBASIC SOCIAL SERVICESBENEFICIARIESBENEFICIARYBROAD MONEYBUDGET REALLOCATIONSCAPITAL ACCOUNTCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL INFLOWSCAPITAL INVESTMENTSCASH PAYMENTSCASH TRANSFERCASH TRANSFERSCENTRAL BANKCENTRAL GOVERNMENTCHECKSCOMMERCIAL BORROWINGCOMMERCIAL LOANSCOMMODITY PRICESCOMPREHENSIVE STRATEGYCONSUMER GOODSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMERSCONSUMPTION GOODSCONTINGENT LIABILITIESCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITDEBTDEBT ACCUMULATIONDEBT DYNAMICSDEBT MANAGEMENTDEBT RATIODEBT SERVICEDEBT SERVICE PAYMENTSDEBT SERVICINGDEBT SERVICING COSTSDEBT STOCKDEBT SUSTAINABILITYDEBT-SERVICEDEFICITSDEVELOPMENT AGENCYDOMESTIC BORROWINGDOMESTIC DEBTDOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETSDOMESTIC MARKETSDURABLEECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC EXPANSIONECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICIESECONOMIC PROJECTIONSECONOMIC SECTORSECONOMIC THEORYEDUCATION SYSTEMEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTEQUIPMENTEXCHANGE RATEEXOGENOUS SHOCKSEXPENDITUREEXPENDITURE CUTSEXPORTERSEXPORTSEXTERNAL BALANCEEXTERNAL COMMERCIAL BORROWINGEXTERNAL DEBTEXTERNAL SHOCKSEXTREME POVERTYFINANCESFINANCIAL ACCOUNTABILITYFINANCIAL BURDENFINANCIAL CAPITALFINANCIAL DISTRESSFINANCIAL OVERSIGHTFINANCIAL SERVICESFINANCIAL VARIABLESFISCAL ACCOUNTSFISCAL ADJUSTMENTFISCAL ADJUSTMENTSFISCAL CONSOLIDATIONFISCAL COSTFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL DISCIPLINEFISCAL FRAMEWORKFISCAL POLICYFISCAL RISKFISCAL RISKSFISCAL SIDEFISCAL STABILITYFISCAL STANCEFISCAL SUSTAINABILITYFIXED EXCHANGE RATESFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN INFLOWSFOREIGN MARKETSGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEHEALTH CLINICSHEALTH SERVICESHUMAN CAPITALINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME GROWTHINEFFICIENCYINFLATIONINFLATION RATEINFLATION RATESINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTINSTRUMENTINSURANCEINTEREST RATEINTEREST RATE RISKSINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTMENT PROJECTSLABOR MARKETLEADING INDICATORSLENDING INTEREST RATESLEVEL OF DEBTLIVING STANDARDSLOCAL ECONOMYLOCAL GOVERNMENTLOCAL GOVERNMENTSM3MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTSMACROECONOMIC INDICATORSMARKET PRICESMINISTRY OF FINANCEMOBILE PHONESMONETARY FUNDMONETARY POLICIESMONETARY POLICYMULTIPLIER EFFECTNATIONAL STRATEGYNATURAL RESOURCESNET SPENDINGOIL PRICESOPERATIONAL DEFICITPENSIONPENSION FUNDPENSION LIABILITIESPENSION SCHEMEPENSIONSPER CAPITA INCOMEPOSITIVE IMPACTSPOVERTY ALLEVIATIONPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE INVESTMENTSPRIVATE SECTORPROGRAMSPUBLIC AGENCIESPUBLIC BORROWINGPUBLIC CAPITALPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC DEFICITPUBLIC ELECTRICITY COMPANYPUBLIC ENTERPRISESPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPUBLIC INFRASTRUCTUREPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC PENSIONPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR BORROWINGPUBLIC SERVICEPUBLIC WORKSQUALITY OF LIFERATES OF INFLATIONRATES OF RETURNRATES OF RETURNSREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREAL INTERESTREAL INTEREST RATESRESERVERESERVESRETURNRISK FACTORSSAFETY NETSAFETY NETSSERVICE PROVIDERSSIDE EFFECTSSMALL BUSINESSESSOCIAL ASSISTANCESOCIAL PROTECTIONSOCIAL RETURNSSOCIAL SAFETY NETSSOCIAL SECURITYSUSTAINABILITY ANALYSISTAXTAX EXEMPTIONSTAX RATESTAX REVENUESTELECOMMUNICATIONSTOTAL DEBTTOTAL EXPENDITURETOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURETRADE BALANCETRADE SECTORSTRADINGTRANSITION COUNTRIESUNCERTAINTYVALUE ADDEDVALUE OF EXPORTSVALUE OF IMPORTSWHOLESALE PRICES10.1596/16989