Mohapatra, SanketRatha, Dilip2012-03-192012-03-192010-12-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.CC BY 3.0 IGOAMOUNT OF REMITTANCESASSETSAVERAGE REMITTANCEBANK DEPOSITSBILATERAL FLOWSBLACK MARKETBLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATESBRAIN DRAINCAPITA INCOMECAPITAL FLOWSCREDIT RATINGCREDIT RATING AGENCIESCREDITWORTHINESSCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONDATA ON REMITTANCESDEBTDEBT FLOWSDEBT SUSTAINABILITYDEPOSITSDEPRECIATIONDESTINATION COUNTRYDETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCESDIASPORAECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC DOWNTURNECONOMIC DOWNTURNSECONOMIC GROWTHEMERGING MARKETEMERGING MARKETSEMIGRANT REMITTANCESEQUITY FLOWSEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTSEXPENDITURESEXPLANATORY VARIABLESFINANCIAL CRISESFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTFINANCIAL FLOWSFINANCIAL SERVICESFIXED SHAREFOREIGN CURRENCYFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICESFUTURE PROSPECTSFUTURE REMITTANCESGLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCEGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTSGLOBAL ECONOMYGLOBAL EXCHANGEGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIESHIGH-INCOME COUNTRYHOME COUNTRYHOST COUNTRIESHOST COUNTRYIMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCESINCOMEINCOME GROUPINCOME LEVELINCOME LEVELSINCOMESINFORMAL CHANNELSINSURANCEINTEREST RATEINTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALSINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL BANKSINTERNATIONAL CAPITALINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETSINTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERSINTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONINTERNATIONAL REMITTANCESINTERNATIONAL TRADEKEY RISKKEY RISK FACTORLOCAL CURRENCYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTSMARKET PLAYERSMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMIGRANT REMITTANCESMIGRANTSMIGRATION POLICYMONETARY FUNDNATURAL DISASTERNATURAL DISASTERSNOMINAL EXCHANGE RATESNOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTOUTPUTPARALLEL MARKETPORTFOLIOPOST-CRISIS PERIODPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWSQUOTASRECIPIENT COUNTRIESRECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDSREMITTANCEREMITTANCE CHANNELSREMITTANCE COSTSREMITTANCE FLOWSREMITTANCE INFLOWSREMITTANCE OUTFLOWSREMITTANCE RECEIPTSREMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENTRETURNRETURN MIGRATIONRETURNSRISK FACTORROLE OF REMITTANCESSAVINGSSEND MONEYSEND REMITTANCESSKILLED MIGRANTSSOVEREIGN RATINGSSTOCK DATASTOCKSTOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCESTRANSACTIONTRANSACTION COSTSTRANSFER COSTSVALUE OF REMITTANCESVOLATILITYVOLATILITY OF CAPITALWEIGHTSWORKER REMITTANCESWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-5512