Lofgren, Hans2013-04-102013-04-102013-03https://hdl.handle.net/10986/13133This paper addresses policies aimed at closing the rural-urban gap for one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the under-five mortality rate (U5MR). The paper relies on the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a computable general equilibrium model, applied to the database of an archetypical low-income country. The scenarios, which focus on the period 2013-2030, include a "business-as-usual" base scenario and policy scenarios that analyze efforts to raise the rural population up to the urban level in terms of health services or the under-five mortality rate. The policy scenarios are implemented with alternative sources of fiscal space. The results indicate that, if current trends continue, considerable progress for MDGs should be expected by 2030. If the government raises rural health services, then the decline in the rural U5MR would accelerate. If most additional resources come from foreign grants or government efficiency gains, then the repercussions for other development indicators, including poverty reduction, would be positive. However, if most additional resources are from domestic taxes or borrowing, then progress for the rural U5MR would come at the expense of less progress for other indicators. Sensitivity analysis shows that these qualitative findings are robust to different values for two parameters related to initial rural-urban cost and service gaps. However, quantitatively, the results depend on the values of these two parameters, implying that individual country characteristics strongly influence the fiscal-space requirements for and consequences of equalizing rural-urban MDG services and outcomes.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICESACCOUNTINGAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTAGRICULTURAL LANDAGRICULTURAL SERVICESAGRICULTUREBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBANK POLICYBASE YEARBASIC SANITATIONBUDGET CONSTRAINTBUDGET CONSTRAINTSCAPITAL ACCOUNTCAPITAL STOCKCAPITAL STOCKSCAPITAL USECHECKSCOMMODITY PRICESCONSUMPTION INCREASESCONSUMPTION SMOOTHINGDEBTDEBT STOCKSDEMAND CURVESDEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICIESDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISCRIMINATIONDISPOSABLE INCOMEDOMESTIC BORROWINGDOMESTIC CURRENCYDOMESTIC MARKETDOMESTIC MARKETSECONOMETRIC ANALYSISECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC SYSTEMSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTELASTICITYENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTEQUILIBRIUMEXPENDITUREEXPORTSFACTOR DEMANDFINANCESFISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICYFOREIGN CURRENCYFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN DEBTSFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN INTERESTFULL EMPLOYMENTFUNCTIONAL FORMSGDPGDP PER CAPITAGINI COEFFICIENTGLOBAL ECONOMYGOVERNMENT BORROWINGGOVERNMENT BUDGETGOVERNMENT CAPACITYGOVERNMENT DEBTGOVERNMENT DEBTSGOVERNMENT INVESTMENTGOVERNMENT POLICIESGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL SAVINGSGROWTH RATEHEALTH OUTCOMESHEALTH POLICYHEALTH SECTORHEALTH SERVICESHEALTH WORKERSHOUSEHOLD BUDGETHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHOUSEHOLD SAVINGSHOUSEHOLD SURVEYHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCOME LEVELSINEQUALITYINTEREST INCOMEINTEREST PAYMENTSINTERNAL RATES OF RETURNINTERNATIONAL BANKINVESTMENT FINANCINGINVESTMENT RATESLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLACK OF SANITATIONLACK OF WATERLEVEL OF EDUCATIONLEVELS OF EDUCATIONLIVING CONDITIONSLOCAL CURRENCYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESLOW-INCOME COUNTRYMARKET CONSTRAINTSMARKET PRICESMATERNAL MORTALITYMEDICINESMIGRATIONMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALSMORTALITYMORTALITY RATENATURAL RESOURCEOPPORTUNITY COSTSPAYMENT FLOWSPOLICY ANALYSISPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOORPOOR PEOPLEPOPULATION GROUPSPOVERTY DATAPOVERTY INDICATORSPOVERTY RATESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE CHANGESPRICE LEVELSPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE CAPITAL STOCKSPRIVATE INVESTMENTPRIVATE TRANSFERSPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROFIT MAXIMIZATIONPROFIT RATEPROGRESSPURCHASING POWERRATE OF POPULATION GROWTHREAL EXCHANGE RATEREMITTANCESRESEARCH PROGRAMRESPECTRETURNSRURALRURAL AREASRURAL GROWTHRURAL HEALTHRURAL HOUSEHOLDRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL MIGRATIONRURAL POPULATIONRURAL POPULATIONSRURAL POVERTYRURAL POVERTY RATERURAL POVERTY RATESRURAL SERVICERURAL WATERSAFE WATERSANITATIONSAVINGSSAVINGS RATESSCHOOL ATTENDANCESERVICE DELIVERYSERVICE PROVISIONSTOCKSSTRUCTURAL CHANGESUPPLY CURVESUPPLY CURVESTARGETINGTAXTERTIARY EDUCATIONTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE POLICYTRANSPORTATIONTRUST FUNDUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEURBAN AREASURBAN BIASURBAN DEVELOPMENTURBAN POPULATIONURBAN POPULATIONSURBAN POVERTYURBANIZATIONVALUE ADDEDWAGESWORKERSWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6390