Haughton, JonathanKhandker, Shahidur R.Jitsuchon, SomchaiKoolwal, Gayatri B.2014-08-292014-08-292012-03https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19865The crash of global financial markets in 2008 caused a ripple effect on economic demand and growth worldwide. Export-oriented economies were hit particularly hard, and many governments stepped in quickly with broad-ranging stimulus programs to lessen the effects on households of rising unemployment and falling income. To better understand the role that stimulus policy might play in softening the effects of these shocks, this paper examines recent nationally-representative data from Thailand, an export-dependent economy where a large-scale stimulus program was introduced in 2009. Using monthly data spanning 2006-2010, the paper uses sub-province-level community panel data to examine the effects of major components of the stimulus on household consumption, income, borrowing, and debt repaid. To address simultaneity of changes in government spending and household outcomes, the analysis estimates a dynamic panel regression, instrumenting the stimulus effect with second-order lagged outcome variables, and estimating the model using the Generalized Method of Moments. The results suggest that household participation in these programs helped smooth consumption. This increase in monthly consumption was not supported from household receipts from the government stimulus, but more likely through a reallocation of consumption and savings that included greater debt repayment. The paper typically finds stronger effects in urban compared with rural areas.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOAGRICULTUREALLOCATIONALLOWANCESALTERNATIVE ENERGYBALANCE SHEETBANK LENDINGBENEFICIARYBONDBORROWING COSTSCHECKSCHRONIC ILLNESSCLIMATECOMMERCIAL BANKSCOMMODITIESCOMMODITYCOMMODITY PRICESCONSUMER PRICECONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER SPENDINGCONSUMERSCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURECONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONSUMPTION INSURANCECONSUMPTION SMOOTHINGCONSUMPTION VOLATILITYCOUNTERFACTUALCREDIT GUARANTEESCURRENCYCURRENCY DEVALUATIONDATA AVAILABILITYDEBTDEBT REPAYMENTDEBTSDEMOGRAPHICDEVALUATIONDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTSDOMESTIC PRICESECONOMETRICSECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC DEMANDECONOMIC DOWNTURNECONOMIC HISTORYECONOMIC SECTORSECONOMIC SHOCKSECONOMIC SURVEYSENDOGENOUS VARIABLESENERGY-INTENSIVE GOODSEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATESEXPENDITUREEXPORT MARKETEXPORT SECTOREXPORTSEXPOSUREFARM HOUSEHOLDSFINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL SECTORFINANCIAL SYSTEMFISCAL POLICYFLOW OF CREDITFOOD PRICESFUEL PRICESGDPGLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETSGLOBAL MARKETSGOVERNMENT DEFICITSGOVERNMENT FUNDSGOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONSGOVERNMENT POLICIESGOVERNMENT POLICYGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGOVERNMENT SUBSIDIESGOVERNMENT SUPPORTHEALTH PROGRAMSHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONHOUSEHOLD HEADHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD PARTICIPATIONHOUSEHOLD WELFAREIDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKSIMPORTSINCOMEINCOME FLUCTUATIONSINCOME SHOCKSINCOME TAXINCOME VARIABILITYINCOME VOLATILITYINCREASE IN CONSUMPTIONINFLATIONINFLATIONARY PRESSURESINSTRUMENTINSURANCEINTEREST RATEINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL BANKJOB CREATIONJOBSLABOR MARKETSLABOR SUPPLYLOANLOAN REPAYMENTLOAN REPAYMENT RATELOCAL ECONOMYLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMARKET CONDITIONSMICROCREDITMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIESMONETARY ECONOMICSMONETARY POLICYMONETARY TERMSMULTIPLIER EFFECTSNATIONAL ACCOUNTSNET EXPORTSOIL PRICEOIL PRICESOPEN ECONOMYOUTSTANDING LOANSPENSIONPER CAPITA CONSUMPTIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY RESPONSEPOLICY RESPONSESPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTYPOORPOOR COUNTRIESPOOR FARMERSPOOR HOUSEHOLDSPOVERTY LINEPRICE FLUCTUATIONSPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC ECONOMICSREAL EXCHANGE RATERURALRURAL AREASRURAL DEVELOPMENTRURAL HEALTHRURAL HOUSEHOLDSRURAL PARTICIPATIONRURAL POORSAFETY NETSAFETY NET MEASURESSAFETY NET PROGRAMSSAVINGSSMALL ENTERPRISESSMOOTHING CONSUMPTIONSOCIAL ASSISTANCESOCIAL SECURITYSTATE ENTERPRISETARGETINGTAXTAX BENEFITSTAX RATETRADE FINANCETRANSFER PROGRAMSUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEUNEMPLOYMENT RATESVILLAGE FUNDVOLATILITY10.1596/1813-9450-6016