Yépez-García, Rigoberto ArielSan Vicente Portes, LuisGarcía, Luis Enrique2014-04-012014-04-012013-12https://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels, available forecasts, and other potential price drivers. The study's specific objectives are to: (i) analyze the economic effects of higher oil prices on LAC countries, particularly oil importers; (ii) assess the short-term impact on electricity generation costs based on the composition of generation matrices across countries of the region; and (iii) quantify the long term impact on electricity costs if countries modify the composition of their generation matrices in response to higher oil prices. This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents the framework for analyzing the impact of higher oil prices, including an overview of recent price trends, major drivers of oil and gas prices, and a medium-term scenario under which higher prices might occur. Chapter three analyzes the impact of higher oil prices on LAC countries. Chapter four focuses on the short-term impact of higher oil prices on the electricity sector and the potential impact on the cost of generation, depending on the planning decisions made for future electricity generation. Finally, chapter five offers policy makers recommendations on the relevance of considering the potential impact of higher oil prices on countries' fiscal and trade balances, the cost of electricity to final consumers, and the impact that such cost may have on the competitiveness of their productive sector.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOADVERSE EFFECTSAMOUNT OF OILAPPROACHATMOSPHEREAVAILABILITYBALANCEBARRELBARREL OILBARREL PRICEBARRELS PER DAYBIOMASSBIOMASS GENERATIONCARBONCARBON DIOXIDECO2CO2 EMISSIONSCOALCOAL PRICESCOAL PRICINGCOAL RESOURCESCOAL UNITSCONVENTIONAL GASCOST OF COALCOST OF ELECTRICITYCOST OF GASCRUDE OILCRUDE OIL PRICESCRUDE OIL SUPPLYCRUDE PRICEDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR OILDEMAND GROWTHDIESELDRILLINGECOSYSTEMSELECTRIC POWERELECTRIC POWER GENERATORSELECTRICITYELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY COSTSELECTRICITY DEMANDELECTRICITY GENERATIONELECTRICITY GENERATION MIXELECTRICITY PRICESELECTRICITY PRICINGELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONELECTRICITY SECTORELECTRICITY SUPPLYELECTRICITY TARIFFENERGY BALANCEENERGY CONSERVATIONENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY COSTSENERGY DEMANDENERGY EFFICIENCYENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATIONENERGY INTENSITYENERGY MARKETENERGY MIXENERGY NEEDSENERGY PLANNERSENERGY POLICYENERGY PRICESENERGY REQUIREMENTSENERGY SOURCESENERGY TECHNOLOGYENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTENERGY USEENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONSEXCESS SUPPLYEXTRACTIONFEEDSTOCKFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOSSILFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUELSFOSSIL-FUELFUELFUEL COSTFUEL COSTSFUEL DEMANDFUEL EXPORTSFUEL OILFUEL PRICEFUEL PRICESFUEL SUBSTITUTIONFUEL USEFUTURE ENERGY NEEDSGAS MARKETSGAS PRICEGAS PRICESGAS PRICINGGAS PRODUCERGAS PRODUCTIONGAS SUPPLYGAS TECHNOLOGYGAS TURBINEGAS WELLHEADGAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIESGASOLINEGASOLINE PRODUCTIONGENERATIONGENERATION CAPACITYGEOTHERMAL GENERATIONGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMANDHEALTH RISKSHEAVY CRUDEHEAVY FUEL OILHEAVY RELIANCEHIGH OIL PRICESHIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTIONHIGHER ENERGY PRICESHIGHER OIL PRICESHYDROCARBON FUELSHYDROCARBONSHYDROPOWERHYDROPOWER GENERATIONINCOMEINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYINVESTMENTS IN ENERGYKILOWATT HOURLIGHT CRUDELIQUID FUELLIQUIDS PRODUCTIONLNGMETHANEMILLION BARRELSMILLION BARRELS PER DAYMUNICIPAL SOLID WASTENATURAL GASNATURAL GAS MARKETNATURAL GAS PRICENATURAL GAS PRICESNATURAL RESOURCESNATURAL-GASNET OILOILOIL AND GASOIL CONSUMPTIONOIL CRISISOIL DEMANDOIL EQUIVALENTOIL EXPORTEROIL EXPORTERSOIL EXPORTINGOIL EXPORTING COUNTRIESOIL EXPORTSOIL IMPORTOIL IMPORT BILLOIL IMPORTERSOIL IMPORTINGOIL IMPORTING COUNTRIESOIL IMPORTING NATIONSOIL MARKETOIL POWEROIL PRICEOIL PRICE CHANGESOIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONSOIL PRICE SCENARIOOIL PRICESOIL PRODUCTSOIL REFINERYOIL REVENUESOIL SHOCKOIL SHOCKSOIL SUPPLIESOIL SUPPLYOIL TANKEROIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIESOIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIESOPECOPEC COUNTRIESPEAK LOADPER CAPITA ENERGYPER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPETROLEUMPETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIESPIPELINESPOTENT GREENHOUSE GASPOWERPOWER GENERATIONPOWER PRODUCERPOWER PRODUCERSPOWER SECTORPRICE COMPARISONSPRICE COMPETITIVENESSPRICE ELASTICITYPRICE OF COALPRICE OF GASPRICE OF NATURAL GASPRICE OF OILPRICE VOLATILITYPRICES OF ENERGYPRIMARY ENERGYPRIMARY ENERGY SOURCEPRIVATE SECTORPRODUCTION COSTSREFINED PRODUCTSREFINERIESREFINERY CAPACITYREGRESSION ANALYSISRENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALRENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCESRENEWABLE SOURCESRENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIESRESIDUAL FUELRESIDUAL FUEL OILSPOT PRICESULFURSULFUR CONTENTSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE ENERGYTHERMAL UNITTOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONTOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONTOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONUTILITIESWELLHEAD PRICEWELLHEAD PRICESWINDWIND ENERGYWIND ENERGY GENERATIONWORLD OILWORLD OIL PRODUCTION10.1596/17547