Eckardt, SebastianMills, Zachary2014-02-032014-02-032014-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16817This paper analyzes the cyclicality of public sector wage bill spending in Europe and Central Asia and assesses the impact of wage bill spending on fiscal discipline before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2008/09. While there are important differences across countries, the results show that public sector wage bill spending tends to behave strongly pro-cyclically, especially in transition economies. Moreover, while wage bill spending is pro-cyclical during both good and bad times, adjustments during economic downturns tend to be sharper than expansions during periods of economic booms. In addition, there is evidence of political cycles, with stronger wage bill growth in pre-election periods. Finally, the analysis reveals that while the size of the wage bill does not seem to systematically affect fiscal discipline across countries, expansions within countries over time are associated with deteriorating fiscal positions. These findings provide a strong impetus for public wage and employment policies that aim to restrain excessive growth of the wage bill during boom periods. This prospective management of the wage bill would not only reduce the need for painful adjustments during periods of fiscal consolidation, but also contribute to strengthening the overall countercyclical and stabilizing impact of fiscal policies.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOANNUAL GROWTHATTRITIONAUTOMATIC STABILIZERSBILLBILLSBUDGET SURPLUSBUSINESS CYCLEBUSINESS CYCLESCAPITAL FLOWSCENTRAL BANKCONDITIONALITYCONSOLIDATIONCONSUMPTION GROWTHCONTROL VARIABLESCROSS-COUNTRY STUDYCYCLICAL ADJUSTMENTDATA AVAILABILITYDEBTDEMAND FOR SERVICESDEPENDENT VARIABLEDEPENDENT VARIABLESDOWNWARD RIGIDITYDUMMY VARIABLEECONOMIC CONDITIONSECONOMIC CRISISECONOMIC CYCLEECONOMIC DOWNTURNSECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC POLICYECONOMIC SHOCKSEMPLOYMENT GROWTHEMPLOYMENT POLICIESERROR TERMEXPENDITURE CATEGORIESEXPENDITURE GROWTHEXPENDITURESFINANCIAL CRISISFISCAL ADJUSTMENTSFISCAL AGGREGATESFISCAL BALANCEFISCAL BALANCESFISCAL CONSOLIDATIONFISCAL CONSTRAINTSFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL DEFICITSFISCAL DISCIPLINEFISCAL MANAGEMENTFISCAL PERFORMANCEFISCAL PERSPECTIVEFISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICYFISCAL POSITIONFISCAL POSITIONSFISCAL PROJECTIONSFISCAL RULESFISCAL TRANSPARENCYFIXED EFFECTSGOVERNMENT DEFICITGOVERNMENT EMPLOYEESGOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENTGOVERNMENT EXPENDITUREGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROWTH RATEHEALTH SERVICESHIGH WAGEHOUSINGINCOMEINCOME GROWTHINFLATIONARY PRESSURESJOB SECURITYLABOR FORCELOCAL CURRENCYLOCAL GOVERNMENTMACROECONOMIC POLICIESMINISTRY OF FINANCEMONETARY ECONOMICSNOMINAL WAGENOMINAL WAGESOUTPUT GAPOUTPUT GAPSPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL INSTITUTIONSPOLITICIANSPOPULATION GROWTHPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRIMARY OBJECTIVEPRIVATE SECTORPRIVATE SECTOR WAGESPROGRAMSPUBLICPUBLIC CHOICEPUBLIC CONSUMPTIONPUBLIC ECONOMICSPUBLIC EMPLOYMENTPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC FINANCEPUBLIC FINANCESPUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENTPUBLIC GOODSPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAMSPUBLIC INVESTMENTSPUBLIC PAYPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENTPUBLIC SECTOR JOBSPUBLIC SECTOR PAYPUBLIC SECTOR WAGEPUBLIC SECTOR WAGE BILLPUBLIC SECTOR WAGE BILLSPUBLIC SECTOR WAGESPUBLIC SECTOR WORKFORCEPUBLIC SECTORSPUBLIC SERVICEPUBLIC SPENDINGPUBLIC WAGERANDOM WALKREAL GROWTHREAL GROWTH RATEREAL WAGEREAL WAGESRECESSIONSREMUNERATIONRESOURCE CONSTRAINTSREVENUE COLLECTIONROBUSTNESS CHECKSSERIAL CORRELATIONSOCIAL POLICYSOCIAL WELFARESOCIAL WELFARE SPENDINGSTANDARD DEVIATIONSURPLUSTOTAL EXPENDITURETOTAL EXPENDITURESTOTAL LABOR FORCETOTAL PUBLIC SPENDINGTOTAL SPENDINGTRANSITION ECONOMIESUNEMPLOYMENTUPWARD PRESSUREWAGE BILLWAGE EXPENDITURESWAGE GROWTHWAGE POLICIESWAGE_BILLWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-6760