World Bank2014-06-122014-06-122014-04https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18659Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial sector accountability and the poor business climate hold back development in the financial sector and in the government debt market. The government is aiming for at least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed at improving the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth and poverty reduction will depend on its success in overcoming the binding constraints to diversified development and in reducing the costs and increasing the profitability of potential private investments.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGACCOUNTING STANDARDSAGRICULTURAL OUTPUTAMORTIZATIONARREARSAUDITSAVERAGE EXCHANGE RATEBANKING SECTORBANKING SYSTEMBORROWERBUDGET DEFICITBUDGETINGBUFFERSCAPACITY CONSTRAINTSCAPITAL ADEQUACYCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL GOODSCOALCOMPETITIVENESSCONSOLIDATIONCONSUMER BASKETCONSUMER GOODSCONSUMER PRICE INDEXCONSUMER PRICE INFLATIONCONSUMPTION GROWTHCPICREDIT DECISIONSCREDIT GROWTHCREDIT INFORMATIONCREDIT INFORMATION BUREAUCREDIT RISKCREDITORCREDITORSCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCECURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITCUSTOMS DUTIESCUSTOMS DUTYDEFAULT RATESDEMOGRAPHICSDEPOSITDEPOSITSDEVALUATIONDEVELOPMENT BANKDOMESTIC DEMANDDOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSECONOMIC EFFICIENCYECONOMIC GROWTHENVIRONMENTALEQUIPMENTEXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTSEXCHANGE RATE POLICIESEXPENDITUREEXPENDITURESEXPORT COMMODITIESEXPORT GOODSEXPORT GROWTHEXPORT MARKETEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT PERFORMANCEEXTERNAL DEBTEXTERNAL DEMANDEXTERNAL SHOCKSFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTFINANCIAL INFORMATIONFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSFINANCIAL INTERMEDIATIONFINANCIAL MARKETSFISCAL BALANCEFISCAL DEFICITFISCAL POLICYFIXED INVESTMENTFLOATING EXCHANGE RATEFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIMEFOOD PRICEFOOD PRICESFOREIGN CURRENCYFOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVESFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGSFOREIGN INVESTMENTSFOREIGN RESERVESFORESTRYFORGIVENESSFUTURESFUTURES MARKETSGLOBAL MARKETGLOBAL MARKETSGOVERNANCE ISSUESGOVERNMENT DEBTGOVERNMENT DEBT MARKETGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGOVERNMENT REVENUEGOVERNMENT REVENUESGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROSS CAPITAL FORMATIONGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGROWTH RATEGROWTH RATESHUMAN CAPITALHUMAN DEVELOPMENTIMMOVABLE PROPERTYIMPORTIMPORT GROWTHIMPORTSINCOME LEVELINFLATIONINFLATION DYNAMICSINFORMATION ON BORROWERSINFORMATION SYSTEMINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTINTEREST RATEINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL FINANCEINTERNATIONAL PRICESINTERNATIONAL RESERVESINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVENTORYINVESTINGINVESTMENT BANKSINVESTMENT EXPENDITURESINVESTMENT PROJECTSLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLABOR MARKETSLABOR PRODUCTIVITYLEGAL FRAMEWORKLENDERSLIQUIDITYLOAN AGREEMENTSLOAN PROCESSINGLOAN RATELOCAL CURRENCYLOCAL MARKETMACROECONOMIC INDICATORSMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENTMAJOR CURRENCIESMARKET CONCENTRATIONMARKET DEVELOPMENTSMARKET REFORMSMARKET REQUIREMENTSMATURITYMICROFINANCEMONETARY POLICYNATIONAL BANKNOMINAL DEPRECIATIONNOMINAL DEVALUATIONNON-PERFORMING LOANNON-PERFORMING LOANSNONPERFORMING LOANSNPLPENSIONSPOPULATION GROWTHPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE INVESTMENTSPRODUCERSPRODUCTION COSTSPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC EXPENDITUREPUBLIC EXPENDITURESPUBLIC FINANCEPUBLIC INVESTMENTPUBLIC SPENDINGRATE OF GROWTHREAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATEREAL WAGE GROWTHREAL WAGESREGISTRATION SYSTEMREGULATORY REFORMSREMITTANCEREMITTANCESRESERVESRESOURCE MANAGEMENTRETURNRETURN ON ASSETSRETURNSRISK MANAGEMENTSECTOR REFORMSECTOR REFORMSSHORTFALLSLOWDOWNSLOWDOWNSSOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTSSTABLE EXCHANGE RATESTABLE GROWTHSTOCKSSTRUCTURAL REFORMSSUPPLY SIDESURPLUSTAXTAX CODETOTAL DEPOSITSTOTAL EXPORTTOTAL EXPORTSTOTAL IMPORTTOTAL IMPORTSTRADE ACCOUNTTRADE BALANCETRADE BARRIERSTRADE DEFICITTRADE FACILITATIONTRADINGTRADING PARTNERSTRANSMISSION MECHANISMTRANSPARENCYTRANSPORTATION COSTSTREASURIESTREASURYUNCERTAINTYUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEVULNERABILITY TO SHOCKSWAGESWAREHOUSEWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSWORLD ECONOMYWORLD TRADE10.1596/18659