Rutherford, ThomasTarr, DavidShepotylo, Oleksandr2012-06-182012-06-182005-10https://hdl.handle.net/10986/8256Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.CC BY 3.0 IGOACCESSION AGREEMENTACCESSION COMMITMENTSACCESSION NEGOTIATIONSACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONAGGREGATE CONSUMPTIONAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSAGRICULTURAL SUPPORTAGRICULTUREANTIDUMPINGANTIDUMPING ACTIONSAVERAGE COSTSBASE YEARBENCHMARKBILATERAL AGREEMENTBILATERAL AGREEMENTSBUSINESS SERVICESCAPITAL INCREASECAPITAL STOCKCOMMODITIESCONSTANT MARGINAL COSTSCONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALECONSUMERSCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESCONSUMPTION GOODSCONTRACT ENFORCEMENTCOUNTRY OF ORIGINCURRENT ACCOUNTCURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSDEMAND CURVEDEVELOPMENT AGENDADEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDIVIDENDSDOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDADOMESTIC FIRMSDOMESTIC SUPPORTECONOMIC GEOGRAPHYECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC IMPLICATIONSECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC POLICIESECONOMIC THEORYECONOMICS LITERATUREELASTICITYELIMINATION OF TARIFFSEQUILIBRIUMEXPENDITURESEXPORT MARKETSEXPORT PRICEEXPORT SUBSIDIESEXPORT SUBSIDYEXPORT TAXEXPORTSEXTERNALITIESEXTERNALITYFACTOR ENDOWMENTSFACTOR SHARESFOOD INDUSTRYFOREIGN BANKSFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN FIRMSFOREIGN GOODSFOREIGN INVESTORSFREE TRADEFREE TRADE IN GOODSGDPGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELINGGLOBAL FREE TRADEGLOBAL TRADEGLOBAL TRADE ANALYSISGROWTH RATEIMPACT OF TRADEIMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATIONIMPORT BARRIERSIMPORT PRICESIMPROVED MARKET ACCESSINCOMEINCOME DISTRIBUTIONINCREASED COMPETITIONINCREASING RETURNSINCREASING RETURNS TO SCALEINDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDSINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIESINTELLECTUAL PROPERTYINTERMEDIATE GOODSINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTINTERNATIONAL TRADEINVESTMENT CLIMATEJOINT VENTURESLIBERALIZATION OF TRADEMANUFACTURING SECTORSMARGINAL COSTMARKET ACCESSMONOPOLISTIC COMPETITIONMONOPOLY RENTSMULTINATIONAL FIRMSOPENNESSOPTIMIZATIONPER CAPITA INCOMEPOLICY CHANGESPOLICY IMPLICATIONSPOOR COUNTRIESPOVERTY REDUCTIONPRICE INDEXPRIMARY FACTORSPRIMARY FACTORS OF PRODUCTIONPROCESS OF ADJUSTMENTPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATIONPRODUCTIVITYPRODUCTIVITY GROWTHPROFITABILITYREDUCTION OF BARRIERSREGULATORY BARRIERSRETURN ON CAPITALRURAL HOUSEHOLDSSAFETY NETSSERVICE SECTORSERVICE SECTORSSERVICES LIBERALIZATIONSERVICES SECTORSERVICES SECTORSTARIFF BARRIERSTARIFF CUTSTARIFF RATESTARIFF REDUCTIONTARIFF REDUCTIONSTAX RATESTELECOMMUNICATIONSTERMS OF TRADETERMS OF TRADE EFFECTSTERMS OF TRADE LOSSTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE IN SERVICESTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTRADE POLICYTRADE REFORMSTRANSITION PERIODTRANSPORTATION SERVICESUNEMPLOYMENTUNSKILLED LABORURBAN HOUSEHOLDSURBAN WORKERSURUGUAY ROUNDUTILITY FUNCTIONUTILITY FUNCTIONSWAGE RATEWAGESWELFARE GAINSWELFARE IMPACTSWORLD MARKETSWORLD PRICESWORLD TRADEWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONWTOWTO ACCESSIONWTO MEMBERSWTO MEMBERSHIPWorld Bank10.1596/1813-9450-3725