Steinbuks, JevgenijsSatija, GauravZhao, Fu2015-02-032015-02-032015-01https://hdl.handle.net/10986/21394This study seeks to understand how materials scarcity and competition from alternative uses affects the potential for widespread deployment of solar electricity in the long run, in light of related technology and policy uncertainties. Simulation results of a computable partial equilibrium model predict a considerable expansion of solar electricity generation worldwide in the near decades, as generation technologies improve and production costs fall. Increasing materials scarcity becomes a significant constraint for further expansion of solar generation, which grows considerably slower in the second half of the coming century. Solar generation capacity increases with higher energy demand, squeezing consumption in industries that compete for scarce minerals. Stringent climate policies hamper growth in intermittent solar photovoltaics backed by fossil fuel powered plants, but lead to a small increase in non-intermittent concentrated solar power technology. By the end of the coming century, solar electricity remains a marginal source of global electricity supply even in the world of higher energy demand, strict carbon regulations, and generation efficiency improvements.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOABATEMENTABATEMENT POTENTIALACCESS TO ELECTRICITYACCESS TO ENERGYAEROSOLSAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICSALLOCATIONALTERNATIVE USESAMORPHOUS SILICONANNUAL GROWTH RATEAPPROACHATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONSAVAILABILITYBIOMASSCADMIUMCAPITAL ADJUSTMENTCAPITAL COSTCAPITAL COSTSCAPITAL STOCKSCARBONCARBON CONTENTCARBON EMISSIONSCARBON NEUTRALCARBON REGULATIONCLEAN ENERGYCLEAN TECHNOLOGIESCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONCLIMATE POLICIESCLIMATE STABILIZATIONCO2COALCOAL FLOWCONVENTIONAL ELECTRICITYCONVENTIONAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONCOPPERCOST ESTIMATESCOST OF ENERGYDEMAND FOR ELECTRICITYDEMAND FOR ENERGYDEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICESDIESELDIESEL GENERATORSECONOMIC ACTIVITYECONOMIC BEHAVIORECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC THEORYEFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTSELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTIONELECTRIC PLANTSELECTRIC POWERELECTRIC POWER GENERATIONELECTRIC POWER PLANTSELECTRICITY CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY DEMANDELECTRICITY DISPATCHELECTRICITY GENERATINGELECTRICITY GENERATIONELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIESELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONELECTRICITY SECTORELECTRICITY SUPPLYELECTRICITY SYSTEMELECTRICITY TECHNOLOGYELECTRICITY USEEMISSIONEMISSION CONSTRAINTEMISSIONS FROM COALEMISSIONS REGULATIONSEMISSIONS SCENARIOSEND-USEENERGY ECONOMICSENERGY INDUSTRIESENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATIONENERGY NEEDSENERGY POLICIESENERGY POLICYENERGY RESOURCESENERGY REVIEWENERGY SOURCESENERGY TECHNOLOGYENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTSENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICSENVIRONMENTAL POLICYENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTSENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITYFEASIBILITYFOSSILFOSSIL FUELFOSSIL FUEL ENDOWMENTSFOSSIL FUEL PLANTSFOSSIL FUELSFUEL COSTSFUEL EXTRACTIONGAS FLOWGAS RESERVESGENERATION CAPACITYGENERATION OF ELECTRICITYGHGGHGSGLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONGLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLYGLOBAL GREENHOUSEGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASGLOBAL WARMINGGOLDGREENHOUSEGREENHOUSE GASGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSGREENHOUSE GASESHIGHER ENERGY DEMANDHYDROGENHYDROGEN ECONOMYINVESTMENT DECISIONSIPCCLAND USEMETALSNATURAL GASNATURAL RESOURCESNONRENEWABLE RESOURCENONRENEWABLE RESOURCESNOXNUCLEAR ENERGYNUCLEAR GENERATIONNUCLEAR PLANTSNUCLEAR POWEROILOUTPUT DECLINESPETROLEUMPHOTOVOLTAICSPOLLUTANTSPOLLUTIONPOLLUTION CONTROLPORTFOLIOPOWER GENERATIONPOWER SUPPLYPPPRESENT VALUEPRODUCTION OF CONSUMER GOODSPRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITYQUANTITATIVE ANALYSISRADIATIVE FORCINGRAW MATERIALRAW MATERIALSREBATESRENEWABLE ELECTRICITYRENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESRENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESRENEWABLE GENERATIONRENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIESRESOURCE ECONOMICSSILVERSOLAR CELLSSOLAR ELECTRICITYSOLAR ENERGYSOLAR PANELSOLAR PANELSSOLAR POWERSOLAR RADIATIONSOLAR TECHNOLOGIESSOURCE OF ELECTRICITYSOXSUNLIGHTSUPPLY SIDESUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE ENERGYTHERMAL POWERTHERMAL POWER PLANTSTINTOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONTRADE SYSTEMTRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTSUNCERTAINTIESUTILITY FUNCTIONVARIABLE COSTWATER HEATINGWELFARE FUNCTIONWINDWIND TURBINESWORLD ENERGY10.1596/1813-9450-7178