Al-Batuly, AbdulmajeedAl-Hawri, MohamedCicowiez, MartinLofgren, HansPournik, Mohammad2014-08-292014-08-292012-03https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19868Once the current political crisis in Yemen has been resolved, it will be ever more urgent to speed up progress, including Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements. Drawing on simulations with the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a model for strategy analysis, and a linked microsimulation model, this paper addresses Yemen's MDG challenges. A first simulation set considers scaled-up government actions with the aim of fully achieving the 2015 international MDG targets with required additional financing from foreign or domestic sources. The main finding is sobering but not surprising: given the required expansion of MDG -- related services, on-time achievement of key MDG targets does not appear to have been a realistic objective even if the government, hypothetically, would have expanded services with grant aid financing starting from 2005; macroeconomic stability, government efficiency, and the production of tradables would all have suffered due to the size of spending and aid increases as well as the resulting real exchange rate appreciation. The results suggest that countries, instead of relying on international targets, should set MDG targets grounded in their own reality. In light of these results, the authors designed a second simulation set that is focused on the remaining period up to 2015, and on what may be feasible once the current conflict has been settled. The simulations introduce moderate increases in foreign aid or government allocative efficiency. The government uses the resulting fiscal space for spending and service expansion in infrastructure and human development without losses in productive efficiency. The results suggest that, under these conditions, substantial improvements could still be achieved.en-USCC BY 3.0 IGOACCOUNTINGADULT LITERACYADVERSE EFFECTSAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONAGRICULTUREALLOCATION OF RESOURCESBALANCE OF PAYMENTSBANK POLICYBASE YEARBASIC EDUCATIONBASIC SANITATIONBASIC SOCIAL SERVICESBENCHMARKBUDGET DEFICITSBULLETINCAPITAL ACCOUNTSCAPITAL FORMATIONCAPITAL STOCKSCENTRAL BANKCIVIL WARCOMPETITIVENESSDEBTDEBT REDUCTIONDEBT STOCKDEBTSDEMOGRAPHIC FACTORSDERIVATIVESDEVELOPING COUNTRYDEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDEVELOPMENT POLICYDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIESDEVELOPMENT STRATEGYDISPOSABLE INCOMEDOMESTIC BORROWINGDOMESTIC DEBTDOMESTIC RESOURCE MOBILIZATIONDRINKING WATERECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC PERFORMANCEECONOMIC SITUATIONECONOMIC SYSTEMSECONOMIC TRENDSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTELASTICITYEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIESEQUIPMENTEXCHANGE RATE REGIMEEXPENDITUREEXPORT GROWTHEXPORTSEXTERNAL DEBTFINANCIAL CRISISFISCAL POLICYFIXED INVESTMENTFOOD PRICESFOOD PRODUCTIONFOREIGN CURRENCYFOREIGN DEBTFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTFOREIGN EXCHANGEFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVESFOREIGN FINANCINGFOREIGN INTERESTFOREIGN INVESTMENTFOREIGN LOANSFOREIGN TRADEGDPGENDER DISPARITIESGENDER GAPGENDER GAP IN PRIMARYGINI COEFFICIENTGOVERNMENT ACCOUNTSGOVERNMENT ACTIONSGOVERNMENT BUDGETGOVERNMENT DEBTGOVERNMENT EXPENDITUREGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURESGOVERNMENT FINANCEGOVERNMENT FINANCINGGOVERNMENT INVESTMENTGOVERNMENT POLICYGOVERNMENT SPENDINGGROUNDWATERGROWTH RATEHEALTH CAREHEALTH CARE SERVICESHEALTH EDUCATIONHEALTH SECTORHEALTH SERVICESHIGH POPULATION GROWTHHOUSEHOLD INCOMEHOUSEHOLD INCOMESHUMAN DEVELOPMENTINCOME LEVELINCOME LEVELSINFANTINFANT MORTALITYINFANT MORTALITY RATESINFLATION RATEINFLOW OF REMITTANCESINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITYINTEREST PAYMENTSINTEREST RATESINTERNATIONAL BANKINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYINTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONINTERNATIONAL STANDARDSINVESTMENT CLIMATEINVESTMENT SPENDINGLABOR FORCELABOR MARKETLENDERSLEVEL OF EDUCATIONLIVE BIRTHSLOW-INCOME COUNTRIESMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENTMACROECONOMIC POLICYMACROECONOMIC STABILITYMARKET CONDITIONSMARKET CONSTRAINTSMARKET STRUCTUREMATERNAL MORTALITYMATERNAL MORTALITY RATEMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALSMONETARY FUNDMONETARY POLICIESMONETARY POLICYMORTALITY RATENATURAL RESOURCENATURAL RESOURCESNEONATAL MORTALITYNUMBER OF WORKERSNURSESOFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCEOIL PRICESOIL RESERVESOPPORTUNITY COSTOUTPUTOUTPUTSPARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSISPER CAPITA INCOMEPER CAPITA INCOMESPOINT OF DEPARTUREPOLICY DISCUSSIONSPOLICY RESEARCHPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERPOLITICAL TURMOILPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH RATEPOPULATION GROWTH RATESPRESS RELEASEPRIMARY EDUCATIONPRIMARY SCHOOLPRIMARY SCHOOLINGPRIVATE CAPITALPRIVATE CAPITAL STOCKPRIVATE INVESTMENTPROGRESSPUBLIC AWARENESSPUBLIC DEBTPUBLIC HEALTHPUBLIC SERVICESPUBLIC SPENDINGPURCHASING POWERRAPID EXPANSIONRAPID GROWTHRATES OF INFLATIONREAL EXCHANGE RATEREAL GDPREPRODUCTIVE AGERESERVESRESOURCE USERESPECTRETURNRISING CONSUMPTIONRURAL AREASSAFE DRINKING WATERSAFE WATERSANITATIONSAVINGSSCHOOL ENROLMENTSECONDARY EDUCATIONSECURITY SITUATIONSERVICE DELIVERYSERVICE PROVISIONSKILL LEVELSKILLED WORKERSSOCIAL DEVELOPMENTSOCIAL POLICIESSOCIAL SECTORSSOCIAL STRUCTURESTOCKSSUPPLY CURVESTARIFF BARRIERSTAXTAX COLLECTIONTAX RATESTAXATIONTERTIARY EDUCATIONTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITYTRADE BALANCETRADE DEFICITTRADE LIBERALIZATIONTREASURYTRUST FUNDUNEMPLOYMENTUNEMPLOYMENT RATEUNEMPLOYMENT RATESURBAN AREASUSE OF RESOURCESWAGESWATER RESOURCES10.1596/1813-9450-6013