38063 The World Bank Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability FOLLOW-ON STUDY Final Report June 2005 Pacific Consultants International Acknowledgements This report is prepared under the overall supervision of Ms Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough (EASRD), with the participation of several government organizations, both at the central and Local Government levels. The key counterpart was the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), and special thanks go to Colonel Elma C. Aldea, Administrator; Director Ronald I. Flores, Special Assistant to the SNDJC, NDCC, Civil Defense Executive Officer, Chief Calamity Fund Management Unit; and Mr. Edgardo J. Ollet, Chief, OCD Plans Division. Head, NDCC Secretariat. The study was designed to follow-on to the "Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines: Enhancing Poverty Alleviation Through Disaster Reduction" which had as an objective: "to document the impacts of natural disasters on the social and economic development of the Philippines; assess the country's current capacity to reduce and manage disaster risk; and identify options for more effectivemanagement of that risk". The primary audience of this report is the Government, at all levels, the donor community and stakeholders involved in disaster management. The study is meant to generate additional knowledge that can be used by the Government and stakeholdersinterested in disastermanagement in the Philippines. Special thanks also goes to those who helped make the report a reality, even though they may not be explicitly named here. F 1*. Executive Summary F> i. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY r. Background I, The Philippines by virtue of its geographic circumstances is one of the most natural Ir r hazard prone countries in the world. Earthquakes,volcanic eruptions,typhoons and floods are the l! bL. most catastrophic hazards in the country. They have destroyedhuman, social and physical capital, r", and derailed social and economic development.Moreover, the social and economic cost of natural L disasters in the country is increasing due to population growth, change in land use patterns, &, migration, unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change. Reducing the risk of disasters will be key to achievingthe developmentgoals in the Philippines. The World Bank with assistancefromthe Philippines Government conductedan informal I study titled "Natural Disaster Risk Managementin the Philippines: EnhancingPovertyAlleviation I bA, Through Disaster Reduction" from May 2003 to March 2004 ("First study"). The objectivesof the F I First study were to: documentthe impacts of natural disasterson social and economicdevelopment L of the Philippines; assess the country's current capacity to reduce and manage disaster risk; and P" identify options for more effectivemanagementof that risk. The First studyrecommends preparing I k, and implementing a national framework plan for comprehensive disaster risk management. The r framework should incorporatethe essentialsteps of integratedrisk management,which includerisk identification, risk reduction and risk sharinglfinancing.The study identified some specific areas r under these key themes that would need to be addressedto improve the current system. , i. This Follow-on study is intended to support the First study and examine in more detail some of the specific areas underthe abovethemes andprovide directionsfornecessary actions. The following objectives are set in the terms of reference: 1. Assessment of capacity and current loss estimation practices by key departments and F agencies, and analysis of probable maximum loss and aggregate losses from potential disasters; 2. Assessment of inventory data requirements of the NDCC and its members, including I, capacity for collection and manipulation and the potential to eventually develop a shared I?- database inventory; and 3. Review of the mapping requirements for the various hazards to better establish social and infi-astructurevulnerability. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Methodology In response to the terms of reference, the follow-on study focused on reviewing the pattern of disaster occurrences in the Philippines, assessment of available data and evaluation of disaster management capacity with an eye on the overall objectives of the twin studies. The shtdy also focused on the directions for improvement of disaster risk management through gap analyses. To understand the pattern of disaster occurrences, the study adopted a case study approach. Some of the recent catastrophic events were investigated in detail to get an insight into the cause and effectrelationships.Apart fromthe availablepublished information, field visits were undertaken to get first hand information. The study has undertaken a detailed assessment of various available datasets -historical event catalogueswith parametric data, site conditionslike topography, land use, geology, soil, etc., socio-economic data, inventories of building stock, administrative boundaries, hazard zoning, eventldamage footprints, and others. Meta data like source, scale, resolution, format, vintage and coverage are collected. A gap analysis of these datasets provided the basis for directions on strengtlfening the data collection and risk modeling and mapping. The studyhas also~lndertaltenan in-depth assessmentof disastermanagement capacity of the government agencies through a questionnaire survey. A questionnaire on recent disaster experiences including event, damage/loss, preparedness, mitigation, response, learning and suggestions was specially designed. Detailed face-to-face interviews were conducted eliciting information from ley officers and experts in 16 departments of NDCC and 12 disaster affected PDCCs and CDCCs. Questionnaires were sent to 80 PDCCs. An analysis and synthesis of this informationprovided the basis for directions on improvingthe disaster management capacity. The overall recommendations are presented here, with more detail available in the main text: Directions for StrengtheningData Networks 1. Updating the topographic maps of NAMRIA (1/50,000) and, updating and increasing the coverage of aerial photographs consideringhazard potential areas on priority. ~ 2. Strengtheningobservationnetworks forrainfall,river flow,andtidal water level of tsunami and storm surge consideringreal-time data transmission to the DCCs. I- I 1 ~ 3. Strengthening seismological and volcanological monitoring network. There is,a need to L evenly allocate 100 seismological stations across the country and install volcanological r, stations in the very active volcanoes out of 16active volcanoes. I- k b i rx 4. Documentation of historical event experience and learninginto what is calledEventReport. I The report contains hazard details, the number of casualties, property damages among others for future use by disaster management agencies. f-i i i L, Directions for PreparingHazard Maps i- I. Given that hazard maps are necessary for controlling land use including houses in hazard k L. potential areas by floods, sediment and landslide, it is recommended that hazard maps I-. based on NAMRIA's topographic maps (1/50,000 or 1110,000 scales), questionnaire survey on floods, historical sediment and landslide disasters, site reconnaissance and simulation (if necessary) be prepared. 2. For hazard map development for earthquakes, two types of maps are recommended. The first one would be the seismic hazard map for the whole country, defined as a map of physical hazard excluding the potential damages. Examples are earthquake groundmotion and fire following the earthquake. The secondwouldbe the seismicmicro-zonationmap at scale 1:10,000 or larger for use in the highly urbanized areas like metro Manila. These maps consider local site conditions like soil and, landslide and liquefaction potential to modify the macro map. 3. Volcanic hazard maps for the six very active volcanoeshave been compiledby PHIVOLCS. Base map scale of these hazard maps is 1: 50,000.Although a detailed topographical map, aerial photography and related data on volcanoes arenot available atpresent; detailed scale La. hazard maps should be compiled to prepare an accurate plan for disaster management , especially for Taal and Mayon volcanoes. Compilation of volcanic hazard maps should cover all the active volcanoes and important potentially active volcanoes according to the priority of disaster management. Directions for Developing CatastropheRisk Models 1. Assessment of the long-term economic and fiscal implications due to catastrophic natural hazards is the need of the hour. Estimation of losses including average annual loss and probable maximum loss from potential future catastrophes goes a long way in enhancing the resilience of the nation to catastrophic shocks. 2. Apart fromhazard mapping, risk mapping at various scalesneeds to be taken up on priority to provide tools for long-term planning at various levels of administration. 3. Catastrophe risk modeling adopting the best practices in the global insurance industry is highly recommended to meet the above two requirements. These practices include simulation of stochastic events from historical events, modeling physical processes underlying the hazards, engineering response of structures and probabilistic analysis of losses. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Directions for Improving Disaster Management Capacity 1. Development of a disaster management information system (DMIS) is the first step to improving existing disaster management capacity of related agencies. Relevant and accurate information for use in early warning systems should be collected and disseminated on time through a national agency to local municipality. Existing datalinformation collection and dissemination system of NDCC should be improved through establishnlent of DMIS in col~junctionwith national spatial data infrastructuure (NSDI). 2. Spatiallyreferenced data and information on themes like population, land use, hydrology, agriculture, climate, economic transactions, etc. are vital to make sound decisions from local to national levels of administration. With the availability of satellite-based remote sensing data and the organization of spatial databases around a Geographical Information System (GIs), combiningwith the Geo-positioningSystem (GPS),the process of semantic spatial information systems has now become a reality. Using an effective, efficient, and widely accessible infrastructure, spatial data could be readily transported and easily Integrated both thenlatically and hierarchically. Transparent access to myriad databases could provide the information for countless applications including disaster management. Tlle establishment of National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) would be the right direction for the counby. 3. Disaster management training for MDCC and BDCC staffs should be promoted because these personnel are the ley staff of local disaster management. Preparation of basic materials for disaster management for MDCC and BDCC should be promoted. National research agencies related to natural disaster such as Universities, PHIVOLCS and PAGASAshould support local activities for disaster management. 4. Comnn~unity-baseddisaster management should be promoted. According to past disasters experience in the world, community people have to survive by themselves for at least 72 hours. Therefore, it is important to raise people's awareness on disaster management through conlmunityactivity, school education and training. 5. In order to be able to develop and implement a national framework plan for integrated disaster risk management as recommended in the First study the following feasibility studies are recommended: a. Emergency communicationand early warning systems b. InformationTechnology including DMIS and NSDI c. Risk management including risk transfer and insurance d. Seismicmicrozonation e. Vulnerabilityanalysis and risk assessment Executive Sumnlary f. Damage and loss estimationmethodology g. Review of building codes h. Institutional setup including legal aspects Overall Recommendations 1. Strengthen data observation, collection and dissemination networks, and standard mitigation practices for each hazard. 2. Establish a Disaster Management Information System (DMIS) to collect and disseminate information including warnings to all stakeholders. 3. Establish National SpatialData Infrastructure (NSDI) to collect, store and share organized spatial (and non-spatial) data. 4. Prepare hazard maps of varying scales for planning and mitigation. Micro zoning, especially in case of earthquakes, needs to be ~mdertakenon priority in urban concentrations like MMR. 5. Develop catastrophe risk models to forecast losses from f~~turepotential disasters and prepare rislc maps of various scales. 6. Undertake feasibility studies on various aspects of disastermanagement in order to be able to develop and implement an integrated disaster risk management plan. Final Report Table of Contents Executive Summary Chapter 2. Overview of Natural Disasters and Capacity of Disaster Management in the Philippines .................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Records of Natural Disasters .................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters ...................................................................................... 2-6 2.3 Overviewof'the Disaster Management Capacity in the Philippines .....................................................2-7 Chapter 3. Study on Floods. Sediment and Typhoon Disaster.. .........................................3-1 3.1 ~ ~ t ~conditions~in the~philippines ~ l ~ ....................................................................................... ~ i ~ ~ l 3-1 3.2 ~i~~~~~~i~~~in the philippines ............................................................................................................. 3-2 3.3 HistoricalDamages by Floods. Sediment and TyphoonDisasters ........................................................3-3 Y.4 Existing Countermeasures and Plans against Floods. Sediment and Typhoon Disasters .................... 3-10 3.5 Mechanism of Floods. Sediment and Typhoon Disasters. Safety Degrees (Risks) and ProblemAreas .............................................................................................................................. 3-14 3.6 Directions for Improving Floods. Sediment and Typhoon Disaster Risk Management ......................3-25 Chapter 4 Study on Earthquake Disaster .............................................................................4-1 · 4.1 Geographical Condition of the Philippines ........................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 GeologicalCondition. Population and Urbanization ............................................................................. 4-2 4.3 characteristics of ~ ~ ~ ..............................................................................................................4-6 t h ~ ~ ~ k ~ ~ 4.4 Existing Countemeasures and Plans against Earthquake Disasters ......................................................4-8 4.5 Mechanism of Earthquakes. Safety Degrees (Risks) and Problematic Areas......................................4-11 4.6 ~ i~~~~~~~~~t capacity for ~ ~t r t ~h ~ ~~ ~ k ~ ~ ~ ~ ..................................................................................4-15 4.7 Strategy Development Directions for Earthquake Impact Mitigation in the Philippines ....................4-16 F Katural D~sasterRlsk Managementm the PhlllppinesReduclng Vulnerabihty 1 Chapter 6. Direction for Improving Disaster Management Data, Hazard Maps Chapter 7. Assessment of available Basic Data for Disaster Management Activities ..........................-.........................................................*........-...-.*.....*........ 7-1 7.1 Existing Basic Data Relevant to Disaster Management ........................................................................ 7-1 7.2 physical Conditions............................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.3 Socio-econom~cData ............................................................................................................................ 7-8 7.4 public Faciliti...................................................................................................................................... 7-9 7.5 ~ ~ f ......................................................................................................................................... 7-10 i ~ ~ t ~ ~ ~ t ~ 7.6 General Hazard Dat............................................................................................................................ 7-11 7.7 General Recommendation for Data Improvement for Disaster management.......-..............................7-17 Chapter 8. Survey on Disaster Risk Management in the DCCs.-..-.--..-.----.-.----..----..--...----- 8-1 8.1 pwpose of the Survey........................................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Methodology .................................................................................,....................................................... 8-1 8.3 .......................................................................................................................................................8-1 8.4 Assessment of pDCC Survey.............................................................................................................. 8-2 8.5 Conclusion ................................................. ....................................................................'......................8-4 .................................................. Chapter 9. Summary of Findings and Recommendations 9-1 9.1 General..................................................................................................................................................9-1 9.2 Mechanisms of Disasters and Direction for Risk Management .............................. .............................. 9-1 9.3 Direction for StrengtheningData Networks.................... ............................... . . .. ........................9-5 9.4 Directions of preparing Hazard Maps................................................................................................... 9-6 9.5 Directions for preparing Catastrophic Risk Models.............................................................................. 9-7 9.6 Directions for Improving Disaster Management Capacity.............. ...................................................... 9-8 9.7 Overall Recommendations for Next Step for Improving Disaster Risk Management ........................ 9-10 Final Report Appendix Chapter 3 Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Stations Appendix 3-3 List of Tide Stations Chapter 4 Appendix 4-1 List of Destructive Earthquake with its Damages Chapter 7 Appendix 7-1 Assessment of Data Availabilityof Maps, Digital and Hardcopy and other Databases Chapter 8 Appendix 8-1 Questionnaire on Disaster Risk Management Satural Disaster Risk Managementin the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability List of Tables Table 1.1 Regional and Provincial Socio-economic Conditions of the Philippines (page 1 of 2) ................................................................................................................1-3 Table 1.1 Regional and Provincial Socio-economic Conditions of the Philippines (page 2 of 2) ................................................................................................................ 1-4 Table 1.2 ~~~b~~~ of the study ................................................................................................1-5 Table 2.1 Damage ofNatura1Disaster in the Philippines 1980-2003 ......................................... 2-1 Table 2.2 Historical Major Damage caused by Destructive Typhoons 1970-2003 .....................2-3 Table 2.3 ~~j~~ sediment ~ iincluding ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~l i d t~ ~ ...........................................................2-3 ~ ~ ~ Table 2.4 Historical Major Damage caused by Destructive Earthquakes 1988-2003 ................. 2-4 Table 2.5 ~ iof~the ~~~t ~ t ~ ~ ~ t ~~in the~t ~ h~ i ~t ........................................... ~~i ~t k~~ ~ 2-5~ ~ ~ Table 2.6 Historical Major Damage caused by Volcano Eruption 1991-2003 ............................2-6 Table 2.7 Disaster with Property Damage over 10Billion Pesos (1980-present) ........................ 2-6 Table 3.1 Major River Basins in the Philippines .........................................................................3-3 Table 3.2(1) Destructive Typhoon Damages by Provinces based on 12Year Data between 1991and 2003................................................................................................ 3-5 Table 3.2 (2) Destructive Typhoon Damages by Provinces based on 12Year Data between 1991 and 2003................................................................................................3-6 Table 3.3 ~ ~ storn ~ surges~ 1897-2002............................................................................ ~ d ~ d 3-10 Table 3.4 Major Flood / Sediment Control Projects of DPWH. ................................................. 3-11 Table 3.5 Major Large Dams (with Height > 100m) in the Philippines .................................... 3-12 Table 3.6 Problems of Disaster Risk Management in Southern Leyte Province........................ 3-16 Table 3.7 Problems of Disaster Risk Management of Capiz Province....................................... 3-19 Table 3.8(1) Mechanism of Flood Disaster .................................................................................... 3-22 Table 3.8(2) Mechanism of Sediment (Including Landslide) Disaster ........................................... 3-23 Table 3.9 Problem Areas of Floods, Sediment Disasters (Tentative)......................................... 3-25 Table 4.1 Population of the Philippines Census years 1799 to 2000............................................ 4-3 Table 4.2 population and GRDp of NCR, Region VII, and XI .................................................... 4-4 Table 4.3 Number of Occupied Housing Units by Construction Material of the Outer Walls and Roof: 2000......................................................................................... 4-6 Table 4.4 Areas of Focus for Regional Hazard Map Development ........................................... 4-10 Table 4.5 ~ iof ~ t A~~~~~~~~and ~ public ~projects ................................................... ~ ~ l 4-10 ~ Table 4.6 Summary of Direct Damages ..................................................................................... 4-11 Table 4.7 Summary of Notable Secondary Phenomenon1Damages .......................................... 4-12 Table 4.8 summary~ of icause casualties..................................................................... ~of ~ ~ t 4-12 Table 4.9 List of Destructive Earthquakes with Large Casualties.... .......................................... 4-13 Table 4.10 Direction of Measures to take for the Mitigation of Earthquake Impact....................4-17 Table 5.1 ~ iof ~ti^^ volcanoes t .............................................................................................. 5-2 Table 5.2 ~ iof ~ t potentially ti^^ volcanoes ........................................................................... 5-3 Table 5.3 ~i~~~~~of six very ti^^ ~~l~~~~~~ ......................................................................... 5-4 Table 5.4 Recent Record of Eruption and Damage of Mayon Volcano ....................................... 5-6 Table 6.1 ~~~~t~~t~ for~~~~~~i~~ D~~~~~ ................................................................................ 6-4 Flnal Report Table 6.2 Existing Hazard Maps or Inundation Maps (Some Examples) ....................................6-6 Table 6.3 Proposed Direction of Hazard and Risk Mapping, Risk Modeling, and Database Development........................................................................................ 6-13 Table 7.1 LocallyAvailable Equipment, Capability & Capacity for TopographicMapping, GIs and Remote Sensing ........................................................ 7-4 Table 7.2 ~ i ~ t r i bof~slope~classes by ~ t i ~ ~1991 ~ ......................................................... i ~ ~ , 7-13 Table 7.3 ~ i ~ ~of ~~~~i~~classes by ~~ i b ~ ~ i ~ ~1991 ~ ..................................................... i ~ ~ , 7-14 Table 8.1 Area Selected for Key Informant Survey by Disaster Type .........................................8-1 Table 8.2 A~~~profile of collected R~~~~~~~~ ............................................................................ 8-2 Natural Dlsaster Risk Managementin the Phihppines ReducingVulnerability List of Figures Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Figure 1.3 Figure 1.4 Figure 1.5 Figure 1.6 Figure 1.7 Figure 1.8 Figure 3.1 Climate Types and Monthly Rainfall Patterns in the Philippines............................. F-3-1 Figure 3.2 ~ ~ ~ t r~~h~~~ t~~~~k~from 1970 to 2002 ...................................................... u ~ i ~ ~ F-3-2 Figure 3.3 Lowest Pressure, Max. Wind and Max. 24-hr ~ ~ i ~of ~f ~~ l~ l t r~~h~~~~t 1990-2002 .......................................................... u ~ i ~ ~ F-3-3 Figure 3.4 Major River Basins and Water Resources Regions in the Philippines ..................... F-3-4 Figure3.5 (1) Frequency of DestructiveTyphoon including Flood Disasters by provinces from 1991-2003.................................................................................. F-3-5 Figure 3.5(2) Frequency of Flashflood Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 .......................... F-3-6 Figure 3.5(3) Frequency of Landslide 1Sediment Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003..........F-3-7 Figure 3.6 Affected Persons per Year by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003................. F-3-8 Figure 3.7 Annual Property Damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003.................. F-3-9 Figure 3.8 Per-capita Annual Property damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003................................................................................................. F-3-10 Figure 3.9 Historical Disaster Places of Storm Surge and Storm Surge Prone Areas .............. F-3-11 Figure 3.10 Location of Existing Major Flood Control and Sediment Control ......................... F-3-12 Figure 3.11 Location of the Existing Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems........................ F-3-13 Figure 3.12 Condition of Landslide Disaster of Panaon Island in southern ~~~t~in ~~,-.2003 ................................................................................... F-3-14 InundationArea of December 2000 Flood with Evacuation Places of Panay River Basin................................................................................... F-3-15 problematic Areas of Flood, Sediment Disasters .................................................. F-3-16 Figure 4.1 Philippine Archipelago with its Bounding Trenches, Subduction Zones, and Trenches.............................................................................. F-4-1 Figure 4.2 Distribution ofActive Faults and Trenches in the Philippines ................................. F-4-1 Figure 4.3 Population and AverageAnnual Rate Increase of the Philippines............................ F-4-2 Figure 4.4 Population Density Distribution of the Philippines by Years by Municipality......... F-4-3 Figure 4.5 HighlyUrban and Capital Cities/ Municipalities ..................................................... F-4-4 Figure 4.6 Active Faults and Population Density...................................................................... F-4-5 Figure 4.7 Spatial Distribution of Seismicityin the Philippine region from 1608 to 1999 .......F-4-6 Figure 4.8 Desmctive Earthquake Locations............................................................................ F-4-7 Figure 4.9 Location of Existing Seismological and Volcanological Stations in the Philippines..................................................................................................... F-4-8 Figure 4.10 Earthquake Induced Landslide Hazard Map ............................................................ F-4-9 Figure 4.11 Liquefaction Potential Map.................................................................................... F-4-10 Figure 4.12 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes-Ground Damages -........................... F-4-11 Figure 4.13 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes -Building Damages - ......................... F-4-12 Figure 4.14 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes -Infrastructure Related Damages -..... F-4-13 F~nalReport . Figure 4.15 Notable SecondaryPhenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes . T s u n a m i . .....F-4-14 Figure 4.16 Notable SecondaryPhenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes - Landslides. .........F-4-15 Figure 4.17 Notable SecondaryPhenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes -Liquefaction. ...... F-4-16 Figure 4.18 Notable SecondaryPhenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes -Aftershocks- .......F-4-17 Figure 4.19 Direct Causes of Casualties in Destructive Earthquakes and their Impact............. F-4-18 Figure 4.20 ~ ~ r t D~~~~ il,fechanismin the philippines h ~ ~ ~ k ~ ............................................... F-4-19 Figure 5.1 ~~~~~i~~of the ~~l~~~~~~in the philippines ..........................................................F-5-1 Figure 5.2 Number of Active and Potentially Active Volcanoes per Province ......................... F-5-2 Figure 5.3 ~ ~of volcanic ~ ~ i h ............................................................................. ~ ~ ~ ~~ t i ~ ~ ~ F-5-3 ~ Figure 5.4 problematicA~~~~of ~~l~~~~~~ .............................................................................. F-5-4 Figure 6.1 Existing Meteorological Observation Networks ...................................................... F-6-1 Figure 6.2 Existing Hydrological and Tidal Observation Networks.......................................... F-6-2 Figure 6.3 (1) Proposed Flood Risk Model ('12) ............................................................................ F-6-3 Figure 6.3 (2) Proposed Flood Risk Model.....................................................................................F-6-4 Figure 6.4 proposed Sedimentincluding Landslide Risk Model............................................... F-6-5 Figure 6.5 General Flow of the Database.Hazard and Risk Map. and Risk Modeling Development............................................................................ F-6-6 Figure 6.6 PGA Distribution...................................................................................................... F-6-7 Figure 6.7 Intensity Distribution ............................................................................................... F-6-7 Figure 6.8 Liquefaction............................................................................................................. F-6-7 Figure 6.9 Building Damages (Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings)................................ F-6-8 Figure 6.10 Maximum Burnt Buildings by Fire ......................................................................... F-6-8 Figure 6.11 Distribution of Water pipeline Damage.................................................................... F-6-8 Figure 6.12 ~ ~of ~ ~ ~and ~l~~~~~~stability~ ~ -l td ~ ~ ~.................................................. F-6-8 ~ ~ l ~ ~ i ~ Figure 6.13 Bulasan Lava-Lahar Hazard Map............................................................................. F-6-9 Figure 6.14 Bulasan Pyroclastic Flow Hazard Map .................................................................... F-6-9 Figure 6.15 Canlaon Lava Flow Hazard Map .............................................................................F-6-9 Figure 6.15 Canlaon Volcanic Pyroclasic Flow and Lahar Hazard Map ..................................... F-6-9 Figure 6.17 Hazard Zonation Map for Airfall Tephra and Ballistic Projects, Hibok-hibok......F-6-10 Figure 6.18 Hazard Zonation Map for Lahar and Floods, Hibok-hibok....................................F-6-10 Figure 6.19 Hazard Zonation Map for Lava Flows, Hibok-hibok............................................. F-6-10 Figure 6.20 Hazard Zonation Map for Hibok-hibok..................................................................F-6-10 Figure 6.21 Hazard Zonation Map for Pyroclastic Flows and Lateral Blasts, Hibok-hibok...... F-6-11 Figure 6.22 Pinatubo Volcano Hazard Zones ............................................................................ F-6-11 Figure 6.23 MayonVolcanoAshfall Hazard Map ..................................................................... F-6-12 Figure 6.24 MayonVolcano Lahar Hazard Map ....................................................................... F-6-12 Figure 6.25 MayonVolcano Lava Flow Hazard Map................................................................ F-6-12 Figure 6.26 MayonVolcano pyroclastic Flow Hazard Map...................................................... F-6-12 Figure 6.27 Taal VolcanoBallistic Projectiles Hazard Map ...................................................... F-6-13 Figure 6.28 Taal Volcano Base Surge Hazard Map ................................................................... F-6-13 Figure 6.29 Taal Volcano Seichesl Lake water Oscillation and Fishering Hazard Map ............F-6-13 Figure 7.1 ~~d~~of~xisting1 .so.000 scale maps at NAMRIA ................................................F-7-1 Figure 7.2 ~ ~ i coverage ~ t ofi~ ~ ~photographyi ~ ~ ................................................................F-7-2 ~ l Figure 7.3 ~~~d cover map for southern L~~~~ ........................................................................F-7-3 Figure 7.4 Available geological maps at scale 1.50,000 at the MGB ........................................ F-7-4 C Natural D~sasterRisk Management In the Ph:l~ppinesReducing Vulnerabil~ty Figure 7.5 Erosion Map for Southem Leyte.............................................................................. F-7-5 Figure 7.6 Vicinity of Bgy Punta, San Francisco, Southern Leyte, Site of D~~2003 ~ ~ ~ d.................................................................................................. ~ l i d ~ F-7-6 Figure 7.7 Slope Map for Southem Leyte ................................................................................. F-7-7 Figure 7.8 Existing Weather Surveillance Radar ....................................................................... F-7-8 Final Report Acronyms ALMED Agricultural Lands Management & Evaluation Division BDCC Barangay Disaster Coordinating Council BEIS Basic Edication Information System BFP Bureau of Fire Protection BRS Bureau of Reserch and Standard-DPWH BSWM Bureau of Soil and Water Management CBDM Community Based Disaster Management CDCC City Disaster Coordinating Council CPI Consumer Price Index DA Department of Agriculture DATOS Data Kit of Official Philippine Statistics DCC Disaster Coordinating Council DepEd Department of Education DOH Department of Health DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways EFCOS Effective Flood Control Operating System EMIS Emergency Management Information System FFWS Flood Forecasting and Warning System FFWSDO Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operation GIs Geographic Information System GOP Government of the Philippines GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation ITCZ Inter Tropical ConvergenceZone JAFTA Japan Forest Technical Association JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JICA Japan International CooperationAgency LGU Local Government Unit LGU Local Government Unit LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LREP Land Resource Evaluation Project MDCC Municipal Disaster Coordinating Council MGB Mines and Geosciences Bureau MMEIRS Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila Ms Surface Magnitude MSL Mean Sea Level NAMRIA national Mapping and Resource Information Authority NCR National Capital Region NCSB National Statistical CoordinationBoard NDCC National Disaster Coordination Committee NIA National Irrigation Administration NIA National Irrigation Authority NPC National Power Corporation NSCB National Statistical CoordinationBoard NSO National Statistics Office Natural Disaster Risk Managementin the Phili~~inesReducingVuinerabilitv NSO National Statistics Office NTMS National TopographicMapping Series NWRB National Water Resources Board OCD Department of national defense, Office of Civil Defense OECF Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Seervices Administration PDCC Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council PFZ Philippine Fault Zone PGA Peak GroundAcceration PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PRS 92 Philippine Reference System 92 PUF Public Use File PVT Private RDCC Regional Disaster Coordinating Council RHU Regional Health Units RLUA Regional Land Use Assessment SEASEE South EastAsia Association of Seismologyand Earthquake Engineering SEDIP-SME SecondaryEducation Development & Improvement Project - School Mapping Exercise SSC Swedish Space Corporation UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, Cultural Organization USAID United StatesAgency for InternationalDevelopment USGS United States Geographic Survey VFS Valley Fault System Final Report List of Interviewees BSWM Reynaldo Bajar, Cartographic Operations Te1:63-2-920-4381 Director Rogelio Concepcion, Director Te1:63-2-920-4382 Fax:63-2-920-4318 Capiz Province Mr. Ronald A. Amigo Administrator Officer IV, Tel: 63-36-621-0032 Fax: 63-36-621-0595 Mr. Vicente B. Bermejo, Governor Tel:63-917-3120218 DPWH Mr. Akito Kagawa (Former) JICA Expert Ms. Becky Garsuta Division Chief, Department Planning Mr.Yuji Ikeda JICA Expert, Highway Planning & Management, Te1:63-2-304-3171 Fax: 63-2-304-3171 Mr. Manuel M. Bonoan, Undersecretary Tel: 63-2-304-3232 Fax: 63-2-527-4107 Mr. Toshiyuki Kano JICA ChiefAdvisor Project management office, JICA Expert FCSEC Tel: 63-2-900-1495 to 8 Fax:63-2-900-1499 Mr. Wataru Sakurai JICA Expert, DPWH, Project management office, FCSEC, JICA Expert on Sabo Engineering Tel: 63-2-900-1495 Fax: 63-2-900-1499 Manila Observatory Dr. Jose Romon Villarin SJ, Head, Climate Studies Division Tel: 63-2-426-5921 Fax: 63-2-426-0847 MGB Mr. Claro Jose C. Manipon, Supervisor, Science Research Specialist Tel: 63-2-920-9121 Fax: 63-2-426-2736 NAMMA Mr. Rene G. Eclarino, Chief, Oceanography Division Tel: 63-2-241-3434 Fax: 63-2-242-2090 Ms. Ofella T. Castro Chief, Photogrammetry Division Tel: 63-2-810-4831 Ms. Linda SD. Papa Director, Information Management Department Tel: 63-2-810-5463 Fax: 63-2-810-5466 Mr. Tadao Tatsuno JICA Exper on ENC Tel: 63-2-245-0295 Fax: 63-2-245-0295 Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Phili~oinesReducing Vulnerabilitv NSO Ms. Mercedita Tia Chief, Cencus Planning & Operations Division, Household Statistics Department Tel: 63-2-716-9426 Fax: 63-2-716-3926 NWRB Mr. Lope R. Villenas Chief, Water Resources Development Officer Tel: 63-2-920-2724 Fax: 63-2-920-2724 Mr. Ramon B.AlikpalaExecutive Director Tel: 63-2-928-2365 Fax: 63-2-920-2641 OCD Mgen Melchor P. Rosales, Administrator Tel: 63-2-912-6675 Fax: 63-2-912-2424 Mr. Edgard J. Ollet Chief, OCD Plans Division1Head, NDCC Secretariat63-2-912-5947 Tel: 63-2-912-0441 Mr. Allan S Virturo Head, Mitigation & Preparedness Section, OperationDivision TellFax: 63-2-911-3038NinoyCastro InformationTechnologies Unit 63-2-912-3044 63-2-421-3237 Director Ronald I. Flores, Specialassistantto the SNDIC,NDCC, Civil defense Executive Officer, Chief Calamity Fund Management Unit Tel: 63-2-912-3044 Fax: 63-2-421-3237 Mr. Eligio R. Galaon, Assistant Regional Director Tel: 63-33-3376671 OCD-RegionVIII Mr. Adriano Fuego, Regional Director Tel: 63-927-2250354 PAGASA Ms. Fudolina D. Baldonado, Chief, Geophysics and Air-Sea InteractionResearch Unit 63-2-927-5343 Dr. Prisco D. Nilo Deputy Director for Operations & Services, OIC, Weather Branch Tel: 63-2-922-1996 Dr. Prisco Nilo, Officer in Charge of PAGASA 63-2-929-4865 Ms. Venus R. Valdemoro, OIC, Public Information & InternationalAffaires Staff Tel: 63-2-434-2690 Fax: 63-2-434-2690 Ms. Panfild E. Gica Senior Weather Specialist, Climate Data Section Tel: 63-2-434-2698 Mr. Nathaniel A. Cruz SupervisingWeather Specialist Tel/Fax: 63-2-927-9308 Philippine Coast Guard Mr. Katsuro Okawachi JICA Expert Tel: 63-2-301-9365 Fax: 63-2-301-9362 C Flnal Report PMIVOLCS Dr. Bartolome C. Bautista, Chief Science Research Specialist, Seismological Observations & Earthquake t Prediction Div. Tel: 63-2-426-1468 to 79 Fax: 63-2-927-1342 Dr. Renato U. Solidum, Jr., Director Tel: 63-2-920-7058, Fax: 63-2-426-1468 Ms. Ester B. Garrido, Geologic Disaster Awareness & Preparedness Division Tel: 63-2-927-4524 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Dr. Norman M. Tungol, Geology & Geophysics Research for Development Division Te1:63-2-426-1468 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Ms. Myla Pan01 Planning section, Office of the Director 63-2-426-1468 myla@phivolcs@dost.gov.ph Mr. Emesto G. Corpuz Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division Tel: 63-2-927-4524 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Mr. Julio P. Sabit Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division Tel: 63-2-927-1095 Southern Leyte Provincial Hospital Mr. Leonardo B. Eway, Provincial Health Officer I1 Tel: 63-53-570-9142 Fax: 63-91-6302251 Vibrametrics, Inc Dr. Benito M. Pacheco, President Tellfax: 63-2-426-0044 Final Report Table of Contents Executive Summary Chapter 1. Introduction············································································································1-1 1.1 Background of the Study 1-1 1.2 Objectives of the Follow-on Study 1-2 1.3 Study Area 1-2 1.4 Members of the Study 1-4 1.5 Basic Approach of the Study 1-5 1.6 Methodology of the Study 1-6 1.7 Study Schedule 1-6 Chapter 2. Overview of Natural Disasters and Capacity of Disaster Management in the Philippines···············································································································2-1 2.1 Records of Natural Disasters 2-1 2.1.1 Composition of Natural Disasters 2-1 2.1.2 Major Natural Disasters by Floods, Sediment, Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption 2-2 2.2 Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disasters 2-6 2.3 Overview of the Disaster Management Capacity in the Philippines 2-7 Chapter 3. Study on Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disaster···········································3-1 3.1 Meteorological Conditions in the Philippines 3-1 3.2 River Basins in the Philippines 3-2 3.3 Historical Damages by Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 3-3 3.3.1 Floods and Sediment Damages 3-3 3.3.2 Storm Surge Damage 3-9 3.4 Existing Countermeasures and Plans against Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 3-10 3.5 Mechanism of Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters, Safety Degrees (Risks) and Problem Areas 3-14 3.5.1 Sample Survey (Southern Leyte and Capiz) 3-15 3.5.2 Questionnaire Survey 3-20 3.5.3 Mechanism of Flood and Sediment Disasters 3-22 3.5.4 Disaster Management Capacity for Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 3-23 3.5.5 Problem Areas of Floods and Sediment Disasters 3-24 3.6 Directions for Improving Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disaster Risk Management 3-25 Chapter 4. Study on Earthquake Disaster·············································································4-1 4.1 Geographical Condition of the Philippines 4-1 4.1.1 Geographical Location of the Philippines 4-1 4.1.2 Active Faults 4-1 4.2 Geological Condition, Population and Urbanization 4-2 4.2.1 Population Increase and its Distribution of the Philippines 4-2 4.2.2 Capital Cities in the Philippines 4-3 4.2.3 Population Density Distribution and Active Fault locations 4-4 4.2.4 Distribution of Houses by Construction Materials 4-4 4.3 Characteristics of Earthquakes 4-6 -i- Final Report 4.3.1 Available Earthquake Information 4-6 4.3.2 Earthquake Damages 4-7 4.4 Existing Countermeasures and Plans against Earthquake Disasters 4-8 4.4.1 Structural measures 4-8 4.4.2 Non-structural measures 4-9 4.5 Mechanism of Earthquakes, Safety Degrees (Risks) and Problematic Areas 4-11 4.6 Disaster Management Capacity for Earthquake 4-15 4.7 Strategy Development Directions for Earthquake Impact Mitigation in the Philippines 4-16 4.7.1 Direction of Measures to take for the Mitigation of Earthquake Impact 4-16 Chapter 5. Study on Volcanic Disaster···················································································5-1 5.1 Background 5-1 5.2 Distribution of Volcanoes in the Philippines 5-1 5.3 Volcanic Disasters 5-3 5.4 Monitoring System of Active Volcanoes 5-8 5.5 Mechanism of Volcanic Hazards and Problematic Areas 5-8 5.6 Volcanic Hazards and Poverty 5-9 5.7 Disaster Management Capacity for Volcanoes 5-10 5.8 Directions for Improving Volcanic Disaster Management 5-11 Chapter 6. Direction for Improving Disaster Management Data, Hazard Maps and Risk Models······················································································································6-1 6.1 General ················································································································································· 6-1 6.2 Floods, Sediments and Typhoon Disaster····························································································· 6-2 6.2.1 Directions for Improving Data on Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 6-2 6.2.2 Directions for Preparing Hazard Maps 6-5 6.2.3 Existing Loss Estimation Practices on Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 6-7 6.2.4 Directions for Preparing Catastrophic Risk Models 6-9 6.3 Earthquake·········································································································································· 6-12 6.3.1 Proposed Overall Direction 6-12 6.3.2 Requirements for Hazard and Risk Mapping 6-13 6.3.3 Recommendation and Suggestions on Direction for Risk Modeling Development 6-14 6.3.4 Data Requirement for Database Development 6-14 6.4 Volcanic Disasters······························································································································ 6-15 6.4.1 Hazard Mapping of Volcanoes 6-15 6.4.2 Directions for Preparing Risk Models 6-17 6.4.3 Direction of Volcanic Data Improvement 6-18 Chapter 7. Assessment of available Basic Data for Disaster Management Activities·····7-1 7.1 Existing Basic Data Relevant to Disaster Management 7-1 7.2 Physical Conditions 7-1 7.2.1 Base Maps 7-1 7.2.2 Aerial Photographs 7-6 7.2.3 Land Use / Land Cover Maps: 7-6 7.2.4 Geological Data 7-7 7.3 Socio-economic Data 7-8 7.3.1 Population Data 7-8 7.3.2 Building Inventory 7-8 -ii- Final Report 7.3.3 Administrative Boundaries 7-8 7.3.4 Recommendations to Improve Socio-economic Data. 7-9 7.4 Public Facilities 7-10 7.4.1 Hospital 7-10 7.4.2 Public Elementary and High Schools 7-10 7.4.3 Recommendations to Improve Public Facilities Data 7-10 7.5 Infrastructure 7-11 7.5.1 Road Data 7-11 7.5.2 Bridge Data 7-11 7.5.3 Recommendations to Improve Infrastructure Data 7-11 7.6 General Hazard Data 7-12 7.6.1 BSWM 7-12 7.6.2 PAGASA 7-15 7.6.3 Office of Civil Defense (OCD) 7-17 7.7 General Recommendation for Data Improvement for Disaster management 7-18 Chapter 8. Survey on Disaster Risk Management in the DCCs·········································8-1 8.1 Purpose of the Survey 8-1 8.2 Methodology 8-1 8.3 Responses 8-1 8.4 Assessment of PDCC Survey 8-2 8.4.1 Characteristics of the Disaster in the Philippines 8-2 8.4.2 Problems and Directions for Disaster Risk Management 8-3 8.4.3 Data and Hazard Mapping Requirements for Disaster Risk Management 8-4 8.4.4 Opinions and Suggestions for Disaster Risk Management 8-4 8.4.5 Other Issues 8-4 8.5 Conclusion 8-5 Chapter 9. Summary of Findings and Recommendations ··················································9-1 9.1 General 9-1 9.2 Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters 9-1 9.3 Earthquake Disasters 9-3 9.4 Volcanic Disasters 9-5 9.5 Directions for Improving Disaster Management Capacity 9-6 9.6 Direction for Strengthening Data 9-6 9.7 Directions of Preparing Hazard Maps 9-7 9.8 Directions for Preparing Catastrophic Risk Models 9-8 9.9 Overall Recommendations for Next Step for Improving Disaster Risk Management 9-10 Appendix Chapter 3 Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Stations Appendix 3-3 List of Tide Stations Chapter 4 Appendix 4-1 List of Destructive Earthquake with its Damages Chapter 7 -iii- Final Report Appendix 7-1 Assessment of Data Availability of Maps, Digital and Hardcopy and other Databases Chapter 8 Appendix 8-1 Questionnaire on Disaster Risk Management -iv- Final Report List of Tables Table 1.1 Regional and Provincial Socio-economic Conditions of the Philippines (page 1 of 2) 1-3 Table 1.1 Regional and Provincial Socio-economic Conditions of the Philippines (page 2 of 2) 1-4 Table 1.2 Members of the Study 1-5 Table 2.1 Damage of Natural Disaster in the Philippines 1980-2003 2-1 Table 2.2 Historical Major Damage caused by Destructive Typhoons 1970-2003 2-3 Table 2.3 Major Sediment Disasters including Landslide 2-3 Table 2.4 Historical Major Damage caused by Destructive Earthquakes 1988-2003 2-4 Table 2.5 List of the Most Destructive Earthquakes in the History 2-5 Table 2.6 Historical Major Damage caused by Volcano Eruption 1991-2003 2-6 Table 2.7 Disaster with Property Damage over 10 Billion Pesos (1980-present) 2-6 Table 3.1 Major River Basins in the Philippines 3-3 Table 3.2(1) Destructive Typhoon Damages by Provinces based on 12 Year Data Between 1991 and 2003 3-5 Table 3.2 (2) Destructive Typhoon Damages by Provinces based on 12 Year Data between 1991 and 2003 3-6 Table 3.3 Recorded Storm Surges 1897-2002 3-10 Table 3.4 Major Flood / Sediment Control Projects of DPWH 3-11 Table 3.5 Major Large Dams (with Height > 100 m) in the Philippines 3-12 Table 3.6 Problems of Disaster Risk Management in Southern Leyte Province 3-16 Table 3.7 Problems of Disaster Risk Management of Capiz Province 3-19 Table 3.8(1) Mechanism of Flood Disaster 3-22 Table 3.8(2) Mechanism of Sediment (Including Landslide) Disaster 3-23 Table 3.9 Problem Areas of Floods, Sediment Disasters (Tentative) 3-25 Table 4.1 Population of the Philippines Census years 1799 to 2000 4-3 Table 4.2 Population and GRDP of NCR, Region VII, and XI 4-4 Table 4.3 Number of Occupied Housing Units by Construction Material of the Outer Walls and Roof: 2000 4-6 Table 4.4 Areas of Focus for Regional Hazard Map Development 4-10 Table 4.5 List of Public Awareness and Involvement Projects 4-10 Table 4.6 Summary of Direct Damages 4-11 Table 4.7 Summary of Notable Secondary Phenomenon/ Damages 4-12 Table 4.8 Summary of Direct Cause of Casualties 4-12 Table 4.9 List of Destructive Earthquakes with Large Casualties 4-13 Table 4.10 Direction of Measures to take for the Mitigation of Earthquake Impact 4-17 Table 5.1 List of Active Volcanoes 5-2 Table 5.2 List of Potentially Active Volcanoes 5-3 Table 5.3 History of Six very Active Volcanoes 5-4 Table 5.4 Recent Record of Eruption and Damage of Mayon Volcano 5-6 Table 6.1 Asset Data for Assessing Damage 6-4 Table 6.2 Existing Hazard Maps or Inundation Maps (Some Examples) 6-6 -v- Final Report Table 6.3 Proposed Direction of Hazard and Risk Mapping, Risk Modeling, and Database Development 6-13 Table 7.1 Locally Available Equipment, Capability & Capacity for Topographic Mapping, GIS and Remote Sensing 7-4 Table 7.2 Distribution of Slope Classes by Region, 1991 7-13 Table 7.3 Distribution of Erosion Classes by Region, 1991 7-14 Table 8.1 Area Selected for Key Informant Survey by Disaster Type 8-1 Table 8.2 Area Profile of Collected Responses 8-2 -vi- Final Report List of Figures Figure 1.1 Political Regions and Provinces of the Philippines F-1-1 Figure 1.2 Per Capita Income by Provinces in 2000 F-1-2 Figure 1.3 Poverty Incidents by Provinces in 2000 F-1-3 Figure 1.4 General Flow of the Study F-1-4 Figure 1.5 Basic Approach on Floods and Sediment Disasters F-1-5 Figure 1.6 Basic Approach of the Study on Earthquake Disaster F-1-6 Figure 1.7 Basic Approach of the Study on Volcanic Disaster F-1-7 Figure 1.8 Overall Schedule of the Study 1-6 Figure 3.1 Climate Types and Monthly Rainfall Patterns in the Philippines F-3-1 Figure 3.2 Destructive Typhoon Tracks from 1970 to 2002 F-3-2 Figure 3.3 Lowest Pressure, Max. Wind and Max. 24-hr Rainfall of Destructive Typhoons 1990-2002 F-3-3 Figure 3.4 Major River Basins and Water Resources Regions in the Philippines F-3-4 Figure3.5 (1) Frequency of Destructive Typhoon including Flood Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 F-3-5 Figure 3.5(2) Frequency of Flashflood Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 F-3-6 Figure 3.5(3) Frequency of Landslide / Sediment Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 F-3-7 Figure 3.6 Affected Persons per Year by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-8 Figure 3.7 Annual Property Damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-9 Figure 3.8 Per-capita Annual Property damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-10 Figure 3.9 Historical Disaster Places of Storm Surge and Storm Surge Prone Areas F-3-11 Figure 3.10 Location of Existing Major Flood Control and Sediment Control F-3-12 Figure 3.11 Location of the Existing Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems F-3-13 Figure 3.12 Condition of Landslide Disaster of Panaon Island in Southern Leyte in Dec.2003F-3-14 Figure3.13 Inundation Area of December 2000 Flood with Evacuation Places of Panay River Basin F-3-15 Figure3.14 Problematic Areas of Flood, Sediment Disasters F-3-16 Figure 4.1 Philippine Archipelago with its Bounding Trenches, Subduction Zones, and TrenchesF-4-1 Figure 4.2 Distribution of Active Faults and Trenches in the Philippines F-4-1 Figure 4.3 Population and Average Annual Rate Increase of the Philippines F-4-2 Figure 4.4 Population Density Distribution of the Philippines by Years by Municipality F-4-3 Figure 4.5 Highly Urban and Capital Cities/ Municipalities F-4-4 Figure 4.6 Active Faults and Population Density F-4-5 Figure 4.7 Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in the Philippine region from 1608 to 1999 F-4-6 Figure 4.8 Destructive Earthquake Locations F-4-7 Figure 4.9 Location of Existing Seismological and Volcanological Stations in the Philippines F-4-8 Figure 4.10 Earthquake Induced Landslide Hazard Map F-4-9 Figure 4.11 Liquefaction Potential Map F-4-10 Figure 4.12 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Ground Damages ­ F-4-11 Figure 4.13 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Building Damages ­ F-4-12 Figure 4.14 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Infrastructure Related Damages ­ F-4-13 Figure 4.15 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Tsunami- F-4-14 Figure 4.16 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Landslides- F-4-15 Figure 4.17 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Liquefaction- F-4-16 Figure 4.18 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Aftershocks- F-4-17 -vii- Final Report Figure 4.19 Direct Causes of Casualties in Destructive Earthquakes and their Impact F-4-18 Figure 4.20 Earthquake Damage Mechanism in the Philippines F-4-19 Figure 5.1 Location of the Volcanoes in the Philippines F-5-1 Figure 5.2 Number of Active and Potentially Active Volcanoes per Province F-5-2 Figure 5.3 Mechanism of Volcanic Disaster F-5-3 Figure 5.4 Problematic Areas of Volcanoes F-5-4 Figure 6.1 Existing Meteorological Observation Networks F-6-1 Figure 6.2 Existing Hydrological and Tidal Observation Networks F-6-2 Figure 6.3 (1) Proposed Flood Risk Model (1/2) F-6-3 Figure 6.3 (2) Proposed Flood Risk Model F-6-4 Figure 6.4 Proposed Sediment including Landslide Risk Model F-6-5 Figure 6.5 General Flow of the Database. Hazard and Risk Map, and Risk Modeling Development F-6-6 Figure 6.6 PGA Distribution F-6-7 Figure 6.7 Intensity Distribution F-6-7 Figure 6.8 Liquefaction F-6-7 Figure 6.9 Building Damages (Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings) F-6-8 Figure 6.10 Maximum Burnt Buildings by Fire F-6-8 Figure 6.11 Distribution of Water Pipeline Damage F-6-8 Figure 6.12 Result of Bridges and Flyovers Stability Analysis F-6-8 Figure 6.13 Bulasan Lava-Lahar Hazard Map F-6-9 Figure 6.14 Bulasan Pyroclastic Flow Hazard Map F-6-9 Figure 6.15 Canlaon Lava Flow Hazard Map F-6-9 Figure 6.15 Canlaon Volcanic Pyroclasic Flow and Lahar Hazard Map F-6-9 Figure 6.17 Hazard Zonation Map for Airfall Tephra and Ballistic Projects, Hibok-hibok F-6-10 Figure 6.18 Hazard Zonation Map for Lahar and Floods, Hibok-hibok F-6-10 Figure 6.19 Hazard Zonation Map for Lava Flows, Hibok-hibok F-6-10 Figure 6.20 Hazard Zonation Map for Hibok-hibok F-6-10 Figure 6.21 Hazard Zonation Map for Pyroclastic Flows and Lateral Blasts, Hibok-hibok F-6-11 Figure 6.22 Pinatubo Volcano Hazard Zones F-6-11 Figure 6.23 Mayon Volcano Ashfall Hazard Map F-6-12 Figure 6.24 Mayon Volcano Lahar Hazard Map F-6-12 Figure 6.25 Mayon Volcano Lava Flow Hazard Map F-6-12 Figure 6.26 Mayon Volcano Pyroclastic Flow Hazard Map F-6-12 Figure 6.27 Taal Volcano Ballistic Projectiles Hazard Map F-6-13 Figure 6.28 Taal Volcano Base Surge Hazard Map F-6-13 Figure 6.29 Taal Volcano Seiches/ Lake water Oscillation and Fisshering Hazard Map F-6-13 Figure 7.1 Index of Existing 1:50,000 scale maps at NAMRIA F-7-1 Figure 7.2 Existing Coverage of Aerial Photography F-7-2 Figure 7.3 Land Cover map for Southern Leyte F-7-3 Figure 7.4 Available geological maps at scale 1:50,000 at the MGB F-7-4 Figure 7.5 Erosion Map for Southern Leyte F-7-5 Figure 7.6 Vicinity of Bgy Punta, San Francisco, Southern Leyte, Site of Dec 2003 LandslideF-7-6 Figure 7.7 Slope Map for Southern Leyte F-7-7 Figure 7.8 Existing Weather Surveillance Radar F-7-8 -viii- Final Report Acronyms ALMED Agricultural Lands Management & Evaluation Division BDCC Barangay Disaster Coordinating Council BEIS Basic Edication Information System BFP Bureau of Fire Protection BRS Bureau of Reserch and Standard-DPWH BSWM Bureau of Soil and Water Management CBDM Community Based Disaster Management CDCC City Disaster Coordinating Council CPI Consumer Price Index DA Department of Agriculture DATOS Data Kit of Official Philippine Statistics DCC Disaster Coordinating Council DepEd Department of Education DOH Department of Health DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways EFCOS Effective Flood Control Operating System EMIS Emergency Management Information System FFWS Flood Forecasting and Warning System FFWSDO Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operation GIS Geographic Information System GOP Government of the Philippines GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone JAFTA Japan Forest Technical Association JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LGU Local Government Unit LGU Local Government Unit LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LREP Land Resource Evaluation Project MDCC Municipal Disaster Coordinating Council MGB Mines and Geosciences Bureau MMEIRS Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila Ms Surface Magnitude MSL Mean Sea Level NAMRIA national Mapping and Resource Information Authority NCR National Capital Region NCSB National Statistical Coordination Board NDCC National Disaster Coordination Committee NIA National Irrigation Administration NIA National Irrigation Authority NPC National Power Corporation NSCB National Statistics Coordination Board NSO National Statistics Office -ix- Final Report NSO National Statistics Office NTMS National Topographic Mapping Series NWRB National Water Resources Board OCD Department of national defense, Office of Civil Defense OECF Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Seervices Administration PDCC Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council PFZ Philippine Fault Zone PGA Peak Ground Acceration PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PRS 92 Philippine Reference System 92 PUF Public Use File PVT Private RDCC Regional Disaster Coordinating Council RHU Regional Health Units RLUA Regional Land Use Assessment SEASEE South East Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering SEDIP-SME Secondary Education Development & Improvement Project - School Mapping Exercise SSC Swedish Space Corporation UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, Cultural Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS United States Geographic Survey VFS Valley Fault System -x- Final Report List of Interviewees BSWM Reynaldo Bajar, Cartographic Operations Tel:63-2-920-4381 Director Rogelio Concepcion, Director Tel:63-2-920-4382 Fax:63-2-920-4318 Capiz Province Mr. Ronald A. Amigo Administrator Officer IV, Tel: 63-36-621-0032 Fax: 63-36-621-0595 Mr. Vicente B. Bermejo, Governor Tel:63-917-3120218 DPWH Mr. Akito Kagawa (Former) JICA Expert Ms. Becky Garsuta Division Chief, Department Planning Mr. Yuji Ikeda JICA Expert, Highway Planning & Management, Tel:63-2-304-3171 Fax: 63-2-304-3171 Mr. Manuel M. Bonoan, Undersecretary Tel: 63-2-304-3232 Fax: 63-2-527-4107 Mr. Toshiyuki Kano JICA Chief Advisor Project management office, JICA Expert FCSEC Tel: 63-2-900-1495 to 8 Fax:63-2-900-1499 Mr. Wataru Sakurai JICA Expert, DPWH, Project management office, FCSEC, JICA Expert on Sabo Engineering Tel: 63-2-900-1495 Fax: 63-2-900-1499 Manila Observatory Dr. Jose Romon Villarin SJ, Head, Climate Studies Division Tel: 63-2-426-5921 Fax: 63-2-426-0847 MGB Mr. Claro Jose C. Manipon, Supervisor, Science Research Specialist Tel: 63-2-920-9121 Fax: 63-2-426-2736 NAMRIA Mr. Rene G. Eclarino, Chief, Oceanography Division Tel: 63-2-241-3494 Fax: 63-2-242-2090 Ms. Ofella T. Castro Chief, Photogrammetry Division Tel: 63-2-810-4831 Ms. Linda SD. Papa Director, Information Management Department Tel: 63-2-810-5463 Fax: 63-2-810-5466 Mr. Tadao Tatsuno JICA Exper on ENC Tel: 63-2-245-0295 Fax: 63-2-245-0295 -xi- Final Report NSO Ms. Mercedita Tia Chief, Cencus Planning & Operations Division, Household Statistics Department Tel: 63-2-716-9426 Fax: 63-2-716-3926 NWRB Mr. Lope R. Villenas Chief, Water Resources Development Officer Tel: 63-2-920-2724 Fax: 63-2-920-2724 Mr. Ramon B. AlikpalaExecutive Director Tel: 63-2-928-2365 Fax: 63-2-920-2641 OCD Mgen Melchor P. Rosales, Administrator Tel: 63-2-912-6675 Fax: 63-2-912-2424 Mr. Edgard J. Ollet Chief, OCD Plans Division/ Head, NDCC Secretariat 63-2-912-5947 Tel: 63-2-912-0441 Mr. Allan S Virturo Head, Mitigation & Preparedness Section, Operation Division Tel/Fax: 63-2-911-3038Ninoy Castro Information Technologies Unit 63-2-912- 3044 63-2-421-3237 Director Ronald I. Flores, Special assistant to the SND/C, NDCC, Civil defense Executive Officer, Chief Calamity Fund Management Unit Tel: 63-2-912-3044 Fax: 63-2-421-3237 OCD-Region VI Mr. Eligio R. GalaonAssistant Regional Director Tel: 63-33-3376671 OCD-Region VIII Mr. Adriano Fuego, Regional Director Tel: 63-927-2250354 PAGASA Ms. Fudolina D. Baldonado, Chief, Geophysics and Air-Sea Interaction Research Unit 63-2-927-5343 Dr. Prisco D. Nilo Deputy Director for Operations & Services, OIC, Weather Branch Tel: 63-2-922-1996 Dr. Prisco Nilo Officer in Charge of PAGASA 63-2-929-4865 Ms. Venus R. Valdemoro OIC, Public Information & International Affaires Staff Tel: 63-2-434-2690 Fax: 63-2-434-2690 Ms. Panfild E. Gica Senior Weather Specialist, Climate Data Section Tel: 63-2-434-2698 Mr. Nathaniel A. Cruz Supervising Weather Specialist Tel/Fax: 63-2-927-9308 Philippine Coast Guard Mr. Katsuro Okawachi JICA Expert Tel: 63-2-301-9365 Fax: 63-2-301-9362 PHIVOLCS -xii- Final Report Dr. Bartolome C. Bautista, Chief Science Research Specialist, Seismological Observations & Earthquake Prediction Div. Tel: 63-2-426-1468 to 79 Fax: 63-2-927-1342 Dr. Renato U. Solidum, Jr., Director Tel: 63-2-920-7058, Fax: 63-2-426-1468 Ms. Ester B. Garrido, Geologic Disaster Awareness & Preparedness Division Tel: 63-2-927-4524 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Dr. Norman M. Tungol, Geology & Geophysics Research for Development Division Tel:63-2-426-1468 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Ms. Myla Panol Planning section, Office of the Director 63-2-426-1468 myla@phivolcs@dost.gov.ph Mr. Ernesto G. Corpuz Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division Tel: 63-2-927-4524 Fax: 63-2-927-7058 Mr. Julio P. Sabit Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division Tel: 63-2-927-1095 Southern Leyte Provincial Hospital Mr. Leonardo B. Eway, Provincial Health Officer II Tel: 63-53-570-9142 Fax: 63-91-6302251 Vibrametrics, Inc Dr. Benito M. Pacheco, President Tel/fax: 63-2-426-0044 -xiii- Chapter 1. Introduction L, CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION I- L 1.1 Background The World Bank ("Bank") with the cooperation of the National Disaster Coordinating C Council (NDCC), chairedby Office of Civil Defense (OCD) and composedof itsmember agencies of the Philippines, carried out a study on "Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines: I-- Enhancing Poverty Alleviation Through Disaster Reduction" from May 2003 to May 2004 ("First L study"). The First study provides an overview of the impacts of natural disasters on the social and P economic development of the Philippines, assesses the country's current capacity to reduce and L. manage disaster risk, and identifies options for more effective management of that risk. The First r study emphasizes the importance of balance between pre-disaster efforts such as appropriate I L land-use planning, construction, as well as other preventive measures to avoid the creation of disaster-prone conditions, and post disaster efforts such as relief, short-term preparedness (B""* 1. (forecasting, evacuation, etc.) as well as post-disaster support for economic recovery, such as rehabilitation and livelihood regeneration. Finally, the First study recommends formulating and F I implementing a "National Framework Plan for Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management" k, incorporating the following essential steps of integratedrisk management: 1. Risk identification including improvingreliable data and hazard maps; P" i t, 2. Risk reduction includingreviewing institutional arrangementsfocusingmore on bottom-up and participatory approaches; and 3. Risk sharing / financing includinginsurance system. r Based on the results of the above First study, the Bank and NDCCjointly held a workshop L, on "Enhancing Poverty Alleviation Through Disaster Reduction in the Philippines" on 29-30th January, 2004 with participation fromthe representativesof various groups of stakeholderssuch as Philippine governmental agencies, international agencies, agencies of donor countries, Non-Government organizations (NGOs) and private sectors relating to disaster management or - insurance systems etc. - During the workshop, the results of the First study were presented, as well as some of the important projects of the member agencies of the NDCC such as Departmentof SocialWelfare and Development (DSWD), Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), Department of Education, Culture and Sports (DECS), Department of Health (DOH), Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG),National Mapping and Resource InformationAuthority (NAMRIA), Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) and Department of Agriculture - Bureau of Agricultural Research, which relate to disastermanagementpolicy, tsunami risk mitigation,hazard Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 3 assessment of schools,health emergencymanagement, spatial database,hydrologicalrisk mapping, geohazard assessment, disaster prediction and early warning systems. Each of the proposed projects from the Philippine government has an important meaning for disaster management. It is expected to position these projects as well as other necessary actions in the above National Framework Plan for Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management from now on. This Follow-on study is intended to build on the First study, presenting supplemental information examiningin more detail someof the specific areasrecommended therein, andprovide directions for necessaly actions for improving disaster management. Specifically, the study was designed to provide information that would allow the identification of key areas to address to reduce the levels of risk and vulnerabilityof the country. 1.2 StudyArea The study area of the Follow-on study covers the whole Philippines. As a general information, Table 1.1 shows the political regions and provinces of the Philippines, as well as the provincial and regional socio-economic conditions in the country. In relation to the Table 1.1, Figure 1.2 shows the per capita income by province and Figure 1.3 shows poverty incidence by province. These two figuresare thebases for consideringthe relation between disastersandpoverty in the Philippines. Final Re~ort Table 1.1 Regional and Provincial Socio-economic Conditions of the Philippines (page 1 of 2) ltemNo( 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 ( 9 1 1 0 1 I I Region I Provlnce Land Area Populat~on Number of No of No of GRDP GRDP per Per F~nanaal Magnitude Povetiy Famllies Municl- Baran- Capita Capita Resources of Poor Incidence I I I palities 1gays I I /Income IGmerated 1FamiliesI Year2000 Year2000 Year Year Year2002 Yea12002 Year2001 Year2000 Year ZOO2 2W2 at 2003 at 2003 2000 price level price level (MI] (km2) (person) (no) (no) (no) (MI] Peso) (Peso) (Peso) Pesos) (No) (%) Philippines 300,000.0 76.504.077 15,269,655 1,506 41,869 4,022,694 52,581 19,676 59,778.6 4338,780 28.4 NCR National Capital Region 617.3 9,932,560 2,188,675 4 1,693 1,443,269 145,307 44,357 26,525.0 125,220 5.7 Codiilera Administrative Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Table i.1Regional and Provincial Socio-economicConditionsof the Philippines (page 2 of 2) Data sources: 1. Data Item 1,2, 6 and 7: 2003 Philippine Statistical Yearbook, NSCB; 2. Data Item 3,4, 5, 8, 9, 10 and 11: The Philippine Countryside in Figures 2002 Edition, NSCB Notes: 1. Financial Resources: includes local resources (tax and non-tax revenue), internal revenue allotment ,grants and borrowings. 2. Tax Revenue: comp~~lsorycharges or levies imposed by government on goods, services, transactions, individuals, entlkes, and others, arising from the sovereign power of the state. 3. Non-Tax Revenue: revenues collected from sources other than compulsory tax levies. Includes those collected in exchange for direct services rendered by government agencies to the public, or those arising from the government's regulatory and investment activities. 4. Internal revenue allotment: the account created under PD144, as amended, representing the portion of total national government revenues which accrue to the local governments. This includes the local government's share in the specific tax on oil products authorized by PD436, as amended. This share has been revised under the Local Government Code of 1991 and its now terms as internal revenue allotment. 5. Poverty Incidence: proportion of families/population whose annual per capita income falls below the annual per capita poverty threshold of the total number of farnilies/population. 6. Poverty Threshold: annual per capita income required or amount to be spent to satisfy nutritional requirements (2,000 Kcal) and other basic needs. 1.3 Members of the Study This studywasjointly implemented by the World Bank, NDCC headed by the OCD, and Study team comprised of members from Pacific ConsultantsInternational(PCI). Table 1.2shows the members of the Study team. I , *d* " Table 1.2 Members of the Study r"" World Bank Office Manila e I Ms. Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough I Lead Natural ResourcesManagement Specialist L> rara OCD Colonel Elma C. Aldea Administrator Director Ronald I. Flores Special Assistant to the SNDIC, NDCC, Civil Defense Executive Officer, Chief Calamity Fund ManagementUnit Mr. Edgardo J. Ollet Chief, OCD Plans Division. Head, NDCC Secretariat Mgen Melchor P. Rosales Studv Team / Mr. Noboru Ikenishi I Team Leader 1Volcanic Disaster Risk Management I Mr. Takashi Furukawa Flood1Typhoon Disaster Risk Management Ms. Kanako Iuchi EarthquakeRisk Management1Coordinator Mr. Yoshihiko Uchikura Hydrologist Mr. Joel F. Cruz GISIDatabase Development 1.4 Basic Approach of the Study The study proceeded separately for each type of disasters, since the necessary information and data varied per disastertype. However, the basic approach is common, as shown in Figure 1.4. Z Disaster types for this study are as follows: 1. Flood and sediment disaster, including typhoon disaster, 2. Earthquake disaster 3. Volcanic disaster Typhoons are one of the major causes of flood and sediment disaster. Hence, typhoon disasters caused by storm rainfall, strong wind and storm surge were comprehensivelystudied in the Study on Floods and SedimentDisaster. In step 1, basic data at national level was collected. A sample area was selected and studied further to supplement the understanding of basic disastermechanisms. In step 2, primary evaluation on safety degrees and direction of risk management improvement were considered. These are described together with the findings of national level data and information, and selected sample areas. Step 3, considered the gaps and recommendations of three components, the data requirements for database development, direction and recommendations on risk models Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability n L_i development, and requirements for hazard mapping. Conclusions and recommendations of individual disasters were integrated, where needed, for the comprehensive development of ;r"7 L! database, risk modeling, and hazard mapping. 1.5 Study Schedule This studywas implemented according to the overall schedule shownbelow. I1) Basic Data coliection 2) Selectionof SampleAreas 3) Underslandingbasic dlsaster mechanism 1 I - * S ' ' p l I I re~e~tationof Directid 2) Directionand Recommendationon Risk Modeling Development 3) Requirementsfor HazardMapping Development .. 7 " " * - Report Timing A IT/R DF/R A DF/R Work inthe Phlllpp~nes I Work ~nJapan Chapter 2. Overview of Natural Disasters and Capacity of Disaster Management in the Philippines L,, CHAPTER 2. OVERVIEW OFNATURALDISASTERSAND CAPACITYOFDISASTER MANAGEMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES I- 2.1 Records of Natural Disasters L 2.1.1 Composition of Natural Disasters P i Natural disasters in the Philippines include floods, flashfloods,sediment (includingdebris flow, mud flow and lahar), landslide, storm surge, big waves, tornado, whirlwind/wind flow, earthquake, volcanic $" i eruption, drought, and red tide. Among these, flood,flashflood,sedimentand most of the landslidesare caused i a , by largerainfall fromtyphoons or depressionor local stormrainfall. Stormsurgeis causedby typhoon, and big P"P j waves. Tornado and whirlwind are also related to typhoon or depression. Table 2.1 shows the summary of damage of natural disasters between 1980 and 2003 and their damage ratios. Table 2.1 Damage of Natural Disaster in the Philippines 1980-2003 Damage of Natural Disaster 1980-2003 Casualties Affected Damaged Houses Damaged Propert~es Disaster Type Dead Injured Miss~ng Total Fam~lies Persons Totally Partially Total No Agricult Infra PVT Total I- (pers ) (pers) (pers ) (pers ) (no ) (pers ) (no) (no) (no) (Bil P) (BII P) (BiI P) (Bil P) Flooding includtng heavy I I 1 1 I I 1 I 1 L.# ------- rainfall 1,617 1,032 421 3,070 2,685,739 13,301,642 Flashflood 5,138 313 1,259 6,710 160,587 837,234 5,317 26,045 31.362 1 898 I 221 0 001 3 120 Sediment including F debr~sflow, mud flow Note Property damage is adjusted to 2003 price level by applying CPIrate=(CPI of respective yearICPI of 2003) Damage % of Natural Disaster Damage 1980-2003 Casualties Affected Damaged Houses Damaged Properties Disaster Type Dead Injured Miss~ng Total Famtlies Persons Totally Partially Total No. Agr~cult Infra. PVT Total ("A) ("h) ("A) ("A) (X) W) (n) A ) (%) (%) ("A) (?A) ("A) Flood~nginclud~naheavv - - 1 I 1 I I 1 1 I 1 ra~nfall 16 0 16 6 19 6 1 6 7 48 6 4 9 8 3 0 4 3 6 2 3 4 5 1 2 8 1 4 4 13 8 13 4 Flashflood 51 0 5 0 5 8 6 ---------- 364 2 9 3 1 4 5 ' 9 1 7 8 2 4 2 6 0 0 2 2 Sed~mentincluding debris flow, mud flow and Lahar 1 0 4 1 0 3 1 0 3 / 0 4 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 8 1 0 4 1 1 7 1 3 8 1 2 7 1 0 0 1 3 0 T Landsl~de 1 5 7 1 6 4 1 2 1 1 5 5 1 0 1 1 O I 1 0 8 1 0 4 1 0 5 1 0 3 1 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 3 Final Repart In the table above, it can be seen that typhoon related disasters such as floods, flashfloods and sediment have the worst percentage of casualties (about 60%), the second to worst being earthquake (27%), and the third is from volcanic eruption (16%). Property damage consists of damages to agriculture, infrastructure and private property. The worst property damage is due to drought (33%), the second to worst is due to earthquake (25%) and the third is typhoon related disasters such as floods, flashfloods and sediment (19%). Although droughtmay have negative economic impactsresulting from property damages, this study will focus on the following major disasters which have significant casualties and overall degree of economic damage: typhoon; earthquake; and volcanic eruption. 2.1.2 Major Natural Disasters by Floods, Sediment,Earthquake andVolcanic Eruption Descriptions of major historical natural disasters by floods, sediment and volcanic eruptions are summarizedbelow. (1) Floods, Sediment and Qphoon Disasters consolidated damage by floods, sediment and typhoon disasters are shown in NDCC's data of Destructive Typhoons 1970-2003. Major damages caused by destructive typhoons, floods, flashfloods, sediment and landslide disasters, in these 34 years are listed in Tstble 2.2. Unfortunately, it is difficult to segregatedamagescausedby each type of water-related disastersbased on NDCC's data. Major sediment disasters includilig landslides are shown in Table 2.3. Table 2.2 HistoricalMajor Damage caused by Destructive Typhoons 1970-2003 Property Casualties Damage Date Incident Affected Region Remarks Dead Total (Bil. Peso ) (Person) (Person) Oct.10-16, 1970 TY Sening 11,111, IV &VI 575 2,361 2.812 Aug.31-beg.Sep, IV,VI, VII, VIII, TY Nitang 900 3,199 17.843 1984 X & XI Nov.3-6,1984 TY Undang IV, V, VI &VII 895 3,693 1.541 Flashflood damage in Nov.2-5, 1991 TY Uring VI &VIII 5,101 6,649 1.045 Orrnoc, Leyte Island is included. Oct.30-Nov.4, NCR, CAR, I, 11, TY Rosing 936 5,404 10.829 1995 111, IV, V &VIII Note: Propertydamage is adjusted to 2003 price level by applying CPIrate=(CPI of 2003/CPIof respective year). Source:NDCC Final R e ~ o r t Table 2.3 Major Sediment DisastersincludingLandslide Year Sediment Disasters includingLandslide Damage 1991 Lahar Disasters in Mt. Pinatubo Area Large lahars have been recorded In 3 tlmes after erupnon In -Debris flow or hyper-concentrated flow of sediment 1991 with total casualties of 62 (~ncludingdead: 44), and and water caused by heavy ralnfall, and breaching of total property damage of 4.209 Bil. Peso (2003 pnce) natural lakes. 2001 (last Mud and Debris Flow Disasters in Mt. Mayon Area Damage data is included in the damage data of Mt Mayon erupt~on) eruption and difficult to segregate. Nov 6 to 9, Debris flow Disasters in Camiguin Island Damage happed by debris flow including flashfloods caused 2001 by Typhoon Nanang (Nov. 6 to 9,2001). Total casualties are 366 (including dead: 148). December, Landslide including Mudflow and Debris flow Disasters Damage by landslide, mudflow and debris flow happed In 2003 in Panaon Island, Southern Leyte December 2003, by local storm rainfall with total dead of 132 persons. It can be concluded that among flood, sediment and typhoon disasters,the largest impacts are caused by typhoons.Destructivetyphoonshit the Philippinesapproximately 6 times per year, and devastating ones,whch leaveproperty damage of morethan 10billion pesos (2003price) at least once every 10years. (2) Major EarthquakeDisasters Based on the information supplied from the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), data including the amount of property damage is available from 1980. Table 2.4 shows the property damage caused by the destructive earthquakes between 1988and 2003. Final Report Table 2.4 Historical Major Damage caused by Destructive Earthquakes 1988-2003 Casualt~es Property Date Incident Affected Areas Dead Injured Miss~ng Total Damage (Bil (Person) (Person) (Person) (Person) peso) June 19, Earthquake Mindoro N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2.680 1988 Magn~tude6.4 Occidental July 16, Earthquake Luzon 1,283 2,786 321 4,390 31.176 1990 Magnitude 7.8 (Baguio City) Nov 15, Earthquake Oriental Mindoro 83 430 8 521 0.881 1994 Magnitude 7.1 Apnl 21, Earthquake Leyte, Eastem N.A. N.A. N.A N.A. 0.043 1995 Magnitude 7.3 Samar Feb. 8, Earthquake Tagbilaran city 6 N.A. N A. 6 0.001 1996 Magnitude 6.8 Jan. 12, Earthquake N.A. 8 N.A 8 0.000 1998 Magnitude - Dec 12, Earthquake Reg. I & Metro 5 40 N.A 45 0 085 1999 Magnitude 6.8 Manila July 28, Earthquake Batanes N.A. 34 N.A. 34 0 054 2000 Magnitude- May 6, Earthquake Mindanao 8 39 N.A. 47 0.020 2002 Magnitude 6.8 Note. Property damage1s adjusted to 2003pnce levelby applying CPIrate=(CPIof 2003lCPI ofrespectiveyear) Source: Major and Minor Natural Disaster Incidents 1980-2003, NDCC Table 2.5 shows the most destructive earthquakes, usually those with more than 100 deaths or 500 casualties, based on the available information. Seven devastating historical earthquakes were observed during the last 400 years. However, older data before 1863 did not provide quantitative numbers of casualties, and hence were not included. i ' " .F Final Report # Table 2.5 List of the MostDestructiveEarthquakesin the History (Selectedfrom 1599to Present) I Casualties Location Summary of damage observed Death Injuries Missing Total 1. Devastatingdamages to buildings, I( I/ infrastructure Man~la I1 876+ 387+ 11 1,263+ I12. Ground openings with gasses I I I I 1 3. Tsunami 4. Aftershock 1. Houses destroyed Southern 100 unknown 2. Landslide (50) Cotabato 3. Tusnami (many, 18ft) 1. Lake Lanao, slipped into water Lanao 1 291 1 713 1 I 1004 1 2. Infrastructure damage 3. Fissures, sand boils, landslides 1 1. Large damages to buildings ( I 1 1 2. Landslides Casiguran 270 600 870 3. Fissures 4. Property damage several million dollars 1 1 1 1.40 aftershocks 2. Damages to buildings Moro Gulf 4,791 9,928 2,288 17.007 3. Damages to bridges 4. Damages to Tsunami 1. 125kmlong Ground rupture I I I I 1 2. Collapse of man-made structures, I 1I I I I liquefaction, lateral spreading and slope Cabana- 1 1 1 1 failures 1,283 2,786 321 4,390 tuan 3. Induced landslide caused severe disruption of road transport lifelines and closure of all four mnn road accessroutes to Baguio city 1. Damage to bridges (some impassible) Oriental 83 430 8 521 2. Surface rupture Mindoro 3. Tsunami Source:Created from available data of the followings: 1. OCD; 2. Southeast Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Volume IV,Philippines, 1985; 3. Destructive earthquakes in the Philippines from 1983to 1995,Phivolcs,; and 4. PHIVOLCSweb pages i In summary,59 destructive earthquakesand 7 devastatingearthquakes occurredin the past 400 years. Pm 1 This indicates that a devastating earthquakehits the country once every 60 years. f- (3) Major Disasters by Volcanic Eruptions L There are 6 very active volcanoes in the country. Of these, the recent active volcanoes are Mt. fl Pinatubo and Mt. Mayon. Table 2.6 shows the recent damage caused by these volcanoes. Mt. Mayon has Final Report r- i b been very active recently; however, it's past property damage is smaller compared to the Mt, Pinatubo I eruption in 1991. Very roughly, it can be stated that there are violent volcanic eruptions once in 30 years. Table 2.6 Historical Major Damage caused by Volcano Eruption 1991-2003 P Casualties I Property Date Incidents Affected Areas Dead Injured Missing Total Damage (Person) (Person) (Person) (Person) (Bil Pesos) July 15, Mt. Pinatubo Reg. I11 (5 850 184 23 1,057 22.8502 1991 Eruption provinces) Feb. 2, Mt. Mayon N.A. 80 9 N.A. 89 0.13505 1993 Eruption Mayon Volcano 1999 Phreatic N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0 explosion (1no.) Feb. 23, Mt.Mayon N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.1008 2000 Eruption (1 no.) July 06, Mt. Mayon N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.05194 2001 Eruption (1no.) Note: Property damage is adjusted to 2003 price level by applying CPIrate=(CPIof 2003lCPI of respective year). Source:Major and Minor Natural Disaster Incidents 1980-2003,NDCC / 2.2 ~ocio-economicImpacts of Natural Disasters It is widely understood in the Philippines that disastershave hampered the efforts of socio-economic development, and have been one of the key factors contributing to poverty in the count$ In disaster-prone provinces or regions, where the problem of disaster is more serious than other areas, disasters have severely impacted investments for development. The areas (or provinces) with low income or high poverty are those often hit by floods, sediment, typhoon disasters(such as Cagayan,Agno, Bicol, Panay river basins and others) and volcanic disasters (such as Mt. Pinatubo, Mt.Mayon, Camiguin Island and others) and earthquake disasters (such as Mindoro island and south-westem parts of Mindanao) (see Figure 1.2 and Figure 1.3). As shown in Table 2.7, the events that caused property damage over 10 billion pesos in the last 20 years include 2 typhoons, 1 earthquake and 1 volcanic eruption. Each of these disasters caused about 1,000 deaths. Althoughthese disasters did not occur yearly, it is obvious the impact to the national economy is very large. 6 e A IRs* Final Report b Table 2.7 Disaster with PropertyDamage over 10 Billion Pesos (1980-present) 2.3 Overview of the Disaster Management Capacityin the Philippines The disaster management system of the Philippines needs to be improved enormously fi-om both medium and long-term viewpoints because there is critical insufficiency in every area including human resources,technology, equipment, and funding.In orderto cope with the requirements of disastermanagement, it is essential to take an integrated approach, including establishment of regulations, improvement of institutional systems, acquisition of budgets, promotion of training for professional staff, and introduction of equipment. The disaster management organizationconsists of NDCC at the top with RDCC,MDCC,BDCC, and others below it. The organization in each administrative district from national to regional level is there to perform emergency response and restoration activities in the event of disaster. However, the emergency response capacity of MDCC and BDCC is consideredto be inadequate,particularly in getting a clear picture of the extentof the disaster conditions, and passing on of this informationto relevant agenciesin the upper levels, in a timely manner. In the case of regions near the Capital area and large cities, the problems related to the collectionand transfer of disaster information and emergency response seems to be comparatively low. However, in regions or islands where infrastructure for communication and transportation are not yet well established, present conditionspose seriousproblems and prevent them frombeing able to both comprehendthe disasterconditions and provide emergencyresponse. Floods, sediments and landslides are disastersbasicallyrelated to typhoonsand rainfall.With regards to these types of disaster, there are limitations in collecting enough information about the rainfall conditions and forecastingthe effects for the area. Consequently, these limitations hamper necessary evacuation activities of people in the region and operations of disaster risk management. However, it is essential to strengthenthe functioningof the system for collection and transfer of information of weather conditions that is well-structured on a national basis. In addition, with regards to data collection for disaster management for rivers, it is necessary to strengthen the functioning of monitoring of the water level and flow volume. Concerning preparedness for Final Report earthquake and volcanic activities, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring system covering the whole nation. Enhancing awareness of people living in the high potential area of natural disasters and capacity development of MDCC and BDCC staff, who are in charge of disastermanagement, is also essential. For the improvement of regional disastermanagement capacity,middle and long-termmeasures are required. It is also necessary to enhance regional economicpower to invest the necessary funds in the establishment of regional disaster mitigation measures. In view of these points, an integrated regional developmentplan including both natural disaster management and economicdevelopmentshould first be prepared. Chapter 3. Study on Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disaster r LA Final Report r La CHAPTER 3. STUDY ON FLOODS, SEDIMENTAND TYPHOONDISASTER P 3.1 Meteorological Conditions in the Philippines L P- 3.1.1 Climate Types and Monthly Rainfall I L The climate of the Philippines is characterized as one having a relatively high temperature (mean .-. annual temperature: 26.6 "C), high humidity (average 70-85 %), and high annual rainfall. Climate in the P"" i B, Philippines is mainly influenced by the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon, tropical typhoon, Inter Trop~calConvergence Zone (ITCZ) and topography. There are four distinct climate types (Types 1to 4, describedbelow) in the country,classifiedin terms r of the rainfall distribution. Table 3.1 shows the climate types and monthly rainfall patterns at several cities in the Philippines. L (1) Type I: Two pronounced seasons; dry from November to April, wet duringthe rest of the year. r The western side of the country characterizedby this climate type is largely influencedby the - ' L southeast monsoon and there is generally a maximumrain period from June to September that .-. 12. p-s I is caused by the tropical typhoons occurring especially during this period. L (2) Type 11:No dry season with a very pronounced maximumrainfall fromNovember to January. The eastern side of the country characterized by this climate type is generally along or very I-. near to the eastern coast that is open to the northeast monsoon. (3) Type 111: Seasons not very pronounced, being relatively dry from November to April and wet F during the rest of the year. This type is intermediatebetween Type I and 1f, but resemblesType I more closely. Areas characterizedby this climatearepartly shieldedfromthe influenceof the C southwest monsoon but influencedby the rainfall caused by tropical typhoon. (4) Type TV: Rainfall more or less evenly distributed throughout the year. This type is also intermediatebetween Type I and 11,but resembles Type 11more closely.Areas characterizedby this climate are partly shielded from the influence of the northeast monsoon. Mean annual rainfall in the Philippines varies between 1,000 and 4,000 mm with an average of about - 2,360 mdyear. Under these climate conditions,heavy rainfall results from typhoons,pressure depressionsand local cumulonimbus. 3.1.2 Typhoons Generally between March 1April and November / December every year, about 30 typhoons are born L in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and move in a northwestern direction. Of this number, about 20 of them hit r the Philippines. Typhoonsbring heavy rainfall and strong winds, which cause damages by floods, flashfloods, LA sediment (including landslide), storm surge and strong wind. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Based on the damage caused by typhoons, about 30 % of the typhoons are considered destructive. Figure 3.2 showsthe paths of destructivetyphoonsfrom 1970to 2002.Many of the destructivetyphoonshit the northernpart of Mindanao, Samar and Leyte first, and then went up in anorthwesterndirectionpassing Visayas, Mindoro and Luzon. Only a few typhoons passed through Mindanao except for the northern area. Mindanao (except the northeasternpart) is almost a typhoon free area. FromMay to October,thetyphoon paths are generallyover Luzon islands.The west side of the Luzon is influencedby the southwestmonsoon during this season, and it is likely to get more rainfall if the typhoon comes. On the other hand, the typhoon paths are generally over Visayas and Northern Mindanao from December to March. The east sideof this areais influencedby thenortheastmonsoon duringthis season,and it is likely to get more rainfall if the typhoon comes. Figure 3.3 shows characteristicsof destructive typhoons, in terms of the lowest pressure, maximum wind and the maximum 24-hour rainfall, between 1990 and 2002 as an example. The lowest pressure ranges between 970-990 hps, the maximumwind speedranges between 20-50 d s , and the maximum 24-hourrainfall ranges between 200-400mm. 3.2 River Basins in the Bhiiippines In the Philippines,421 rivers are identifiedas principalriver basins with catchmentareas raging from 41 kmZto 25,649 lad (source: National Water Resources Board (NWRB), "Principal River Basins of the Philippines", 1976). Among the principal river basins, 20 river basins are identified as major rivzr basins, which have in general, a catchmentarea of more than 1,400km2,with the exception of the Laoag River Basin (source: JICA, "Master Plan Study on Water ResourcesManagement in the Republic of the Philippines, Final Report", 1998).These river basins are divided into 12water resourcesregions. The major river basins and the water resourcesregions are shownin Figure 3.4 and the major river basins are also given in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Major River Basins in the Philippines Almost all of the major river basins have a problem with floods, and for some, an additionalproblem with sediments. Examples of such areas are Laoag, Agno and Pampanga basins. The issue of floods (including r flashfloods) and sediment (including landslide) also affect many principal river basins. 3.3 HistoricalDamages by Floods, Sediment and TyphoonDisasters ka i 3.3.1 Floods and SedimentDamages F' I . 1 L~ (1) General Flood Disaster P" L- Floods (including flashfloods) are the result of an overflow of water from rivers with large discharges r caused by heavy rainfall in the river basins. Floods and flashfloods are caused by typhoons, tropical 4 6, depressions, and local storm rainfall. Areas such as alluvial plains along the rivers including agricultural lands, villages, towns and cities get inundated by the floods. Furthermore, due to insufficient drainage T- i systems, drainage problems often happen in urban areas, which is also one of the floodingproblems in the L, Philippines. I=- L , Sediment Disaster T"" In addition to the above, there are river basins with sedimentproblems from large sedimentflows, debris L i flows and mud flows. These are also causedby heavy rainfall in the river basins resulti& from typhoons, tropical depressions and local stormrainfall with large amounts of sedimentproduction in the river basins I-* and existence of large amounts of unstable sediments along the rivers often accompaniedwith flashfloods. bd Furthermore, landslides from mountain slopes and hills also occur in the Philippines.These are generally f- caused by weak resistance on the slopes due to heavy rainfall or earthquakes. L n .L Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability (2) TyphoonDamages In many cases, floods (including flashfloods) and sediment (including landslide) are caused by fl L typhoons especially in the Northeastern Mindanao area of the Visayas (Regions VI to VIII), Mindoro and all I over Luzon. Generally, in Mindanao, floods (including flashfloods) occur due to heavy rains from a tropical - I- depression, or just local heavy rains. Furthermore, typhoons sometimes cause storm surges in some of the L coastal areas in the Philippines, and cause destructive damages to villages along the coast. However, the phenomenon and condilions of damage from storm surges is not well known due to the difficulty of accessing '- the damaged sites, as well as lack of observation networks. The strong winds associated with typhoons also damagehousis, buildings and electric lines. However, it is difficult to disaggregatedamage causedby wind to C that fromwater, sedimentand or flushfloods damage, as the NDCC damage data is aggregatedunder "floods". 0 3.3.2 Frequencyof Destructive'I'yphoons / Flood Damages Table 3.2(1) shows a summary of provincial damages by destructivetyphoonsbased on 12year data from hiDCC between 1991and 2003 (1998 data is missing), which is the base data for the analyses shown in Figures 3.5 to 3%. Since many disasters including floods and sediment have happened after 1991, it was ass~~medthat these 13 years after 1991wouId be a good sample period to study the profile of the provincial damages. Most of the damages are caused by floods from destructivetyphoons. (Relating to the damage data, we found that sometimesthere are discrepanciesbetween the country, region and province data. In such cases, the data format is also not uniform, which makes it difficultto develop a database.In order to minimize data discrepancies,it is recommended that data is sent from the provinceto region and country atthe sametime and using a uniform format). Figure 3.5 (1) shows the frequencyof destructivetyphoon disastersby province from 1991to 2003. The frequency is higher in the area of northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Mindoro and Luzon, which coincides with the typhoonpaths.Frequencyof typhoonsin these areas (in other words safetydegree)rangesbetween 0.5 to more than 2 timedyear, which is equal to a range of a 2-year return period to a 0.5-year return period. The frequency of occurrence in Mindanao (except the northeastern part) is relatively low with a range of 0-0.5 timedyear (more than 2-year return period) on average. Since typhoons cause floods in many cases, these can be assumed at almost the same frequency or safety degree as typhoons. ~ Table 3.2(1) DestructiveTyphoonDamages by Provinces based on 12Year Data between 1991 and 2003 Table 3.2 (2) Destructive'Pjphoon Damages by Provinces based on 12Year Data between 1991 and 2003 2) Property damage is re-calculatedbased on 2003 price level by allping rates of CPI of each year. Natural DisasterRisk Management in the PhiLippinesReducingVulnerabilitylf (1) Frequency of Fiash Flood Damage Figure 3.5(2) shows the frequency of flashflood disaster. The frequencies of flashfloods are generally much lower than that of floods.The frequenciesof flashfloodrange only between 0 to 0.5 times per year (more than 2-year return period) for the whole countryon average. Flashfloods also occur in Mindanao,probably due to tropical depressions or local stormrainfall, and not only in the flood prone areas such as Visayas, Mindoro and Luzon. (2) Frequency of Sediment and Landslide Damage Figure 3.5(3) showsthe frequencyof sedimentllandslidedisaster.These frequenciesare alsomuch lower than those of floods, and range onlybetween 0 to 0.5 times per year (more than 2-year return period):Recorded areas of landslides are evenly spread over the country. (3) Damage by Floods and SedimentDisasters Depending on the topography and land use of river basins and meteo-hydrological conditions, the patterns of floods differ frombasin to basin. Riverbasins with flattopographysufferfromvast floodswith long durations (for example: Cagayan, Agno, Pampanga, Bicol, Panay and Mindanao river basins). River basins with steep topographysuffer fro~nflashfloodsand sediment dischargein many cases (for example:Laoag river basin), as do middle to smallrivers like the rivers in Mt.Pinatuboarea, Camiguin island, and Ormoc City). Furthermore,debrisflowand mud flowtogetherwith flashfloodsoccurin the upstream basins and can be seen in the rivers such as the rivers in Mt.Pinatubo area, Camiguin Island and SouthernLeyte (PanaonIsland). The severity of damages depends on the magnitude and pattern of the flood (including flashflood) and sediment (includinglandslide),population distributionand landuse such as agriculturalland. Consideringthis, severity of damages by destructive typhoons which include consolidated damages of floods and sediment disasters are analyzed in terms of affectedpopulation and property damage. The extent of the impact is easily gauged by the number of casualties (dead, injmed and missing), as well as property damage: agricultural damage, infrastructuraldamage and private property damage, which relates to the damages to assets. AffectedP e r s m Figure 3.6 shows annual average affected personsby destructivetyphoons, by province.This is assumed to be almost at the same levels as the affectedpersons of floods and sediment (includinglandslide).The highest group of affectedpersons includesthe northeasternLuzon where Cagayan river basin is located, central Luzon where the Agno and surroundingriver basins and the Pampanga river basin are located, and southern Luzon where Bicol river basin is located. Generally speaking, the number of affected persons is large in the provinces with largepopulationsliving in the typhoon path, such as the provinces in Luzon, Iloilo in Panay, and Negros Occidental.Affected persons in Leyte belong to the 2nd highest Draft Final Reoort C group due to the large flashflood that happened in November 1991 at Ormoc City, where about 5,100 persons died. Property Damage and Per-Capita Property Damape: Figure 3.7 shows the annual property damages from 1991 to 2003, and Figure 3.8 shows per-capita annual property damage. In terms of property and per-capita property damage, Luzon is in the middle to higher group (more than 50 million pesos/year), especially in the areas of the Cagayan, Agno and Bicol river basins which have suffered severe property damage (both of total and per-capita). Other islands, especially Oriental Mindoro, Northeastern and southern Panay, Leyte and northeastern Mindanao (Surigao Norte and Sur) have suffered severeproperty damage (total and per-capita). Relation between Property Damage and Poverty: It cannot be always said that the area with high frequency, or many affected persons, or large amount of property damageby flood, sediment and typhoon disastershave high relation to poverty. However, clear relationships between the property damage (shown in Figures 3.7 and 3.8) and condition of poverty (shown in Figures 1.2 and 1.3) can be seen for the Cagayan and Bicol River Basins, Oriental Mindoro, Panay river basin in Northeastern Panay, Leyte and Northeastern Mindanao (Surigao Norte and Sur). Among these, Cagayan River Basin, Bicol River Basin, Leyte and Northeastern Mindanao have a characteristically high frequency of destructive typhoons and many affected persons as well as large amounts of property damage (total and per-capita). Panay River Basin and Oriental Mindoro have characteristically large amounts of property damage (total and per-capita). It can be concluded that floods, sediment and typhoon disasters are among the key reasons for poverty in these areas. 3.3.3 Storm Surge Damage Storm surge is the abnormally high sea level caused by low pressure of tropical cyclones/typhoons, and the impacts are affected by direction and topography of the coast. It is often associated with very high waves.,When storm surge occurs, it usually causes significantdamageto the affected towns and villages along & the coasts with a resultant high number of deaths. In the Philippines, although the frequency of occurrenceof storm surges is lower than floods, it has been recorded as occurring. However, as the damaged places are usually located in remote areas, almost no observation facilities such as tidal gauges exist in and around the damaged places, hence the pattern and conditions following storm surges, including its damage is not yet well known yet. Figure 3.9 shows the recorded places of storm surge from 1897to 2002, but looking at this data, it seems that a good number of storm surge occurrences are missing, mainly due to the difficultyin investigating and data collecting. Since the storm surge damage is very serious, especially in poor villages depending on Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability fishery,it is recommended to investigateand studythephenomenonof storm surge and its associateddamages from now on. Table3.3 Recorded Storm Surges 1897-2002 Date Tropical Cyclone Place of Max. Sea Water Level Max. Sea Water ProvinceIArea Place Level above MSL MSL: Mean sea level Source:PAGASA Z 3.4 Existing Countermeasuresand Plans againstFloods, Sediment and TyphoonDisasters 3.4.1 Existing Flood 1Sediment Controll Plans and StructuralMeasures The Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is responsible for implementingflood and sedimentcontrol structures(includinglandslides). Substantialstruct~iralmeasures against floods and sediment in the ;Philippineshave been provided, but only for someof the major riverbasins. Otherrivershave onlyminor mitigation measures such as bank protection and dikes for a limited reach. Table 3.4 shows the list of the existingplans and structuralmeasures mainly for the major river basins. Figure 3.10 shows the location of the river basins with existingmajor flood control or sedimentcontrol projects of DPWH. Although it takes time and money, it is necessaryto continueand increasethe number of river basins with substantialflood control or sedimentcontrol measures. Draft Final Report Table3.4 Major Flood 1Sediment Control Projects of DPWH River Project Framework Master Plan Feasibility Implementation Plan (MIP) Study (FIS) 1. Major Rivers Laoag Flood control GOP & OECF JICA (1997) JICA (1997) GOP & JBIC (from 2001, DID Sediment control (1982)* 2003) Abra Cagayan Flood control GOP & OECF JICA (1987) JICA (2002) - Water resources develp. (1982)* - Abulog Agno Flood control GOP & OECF JICA (1991) JICA (1991) GOP & JBIC (OECF) (from (1982)* 1995) Pampanga Flood control GOP & OECF JICA (1982) GOP & OECF (1 990-2003) (1982)* Pas~g-LagunaBay Flood control GOP (1954) JICA (1990) JICA (I990) GOP (1970s) Drainage improvement GOP & JBIC (OECF) (from 1973for severalprojects) Blcol Flood control GOP & OECF WB (water BRDBDP BRDBDP (DID, 1992) Sediment control Source: JICA; "Water & Floods", 2003 Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 3.4.2 Existing Flood Control / Multipurpose Dams There are 36 large dams with a dam height of more than 15 m in the Philippines. These dams are mainly for hydropower, irrigation and water supply, while some have flood control functions. Among the 36 large dams, 7 dams arecalledmajor dams with a damheight of more than 100m as shownin the followingtable. Together with the existing flood control facilities and flood forecasting and warning systems (mentioned in 3.4.3), it is expected to more effectivelyutilize the existing dams for flood control. Table 3.5MajorLarge Dams (with Height > 100 I) in the Philippines Darn Agency Purpose Province River Catch DamType Dan1 Gross Active Basin -ment Height Storage . storage Area (mil. m3) (mil. m3) (km2) Angat NIA/ Hydropower Bulakan Angat 568 Iiockfill 131 1,075 850 NPC Water supply Irrigation - Flood control - -- Magat NIAIHydropower Isabela Cagayan 4,143 Rockfill I 114 1,254 969 NPC Water supply Concrete Irrigation Gravity - Flood control Pantabangan NIA I Hydropower Nueva Pampanga 853 Earthfill 107 2310 1,973 NPC Water supply Ecija Irrigation Flood control Ambuklao NPC Hydropower Benguet Agno 612 Rockfill 129 327 258 , Binga NPC Hydropower Benguet Agno 854 Rocktill 107 91 33 San Roque NIA 1 Hydropower Pangasinan Agno 1,235 Rockfill 200 850 530 NPC Water supply Irrigation Flood control Pulangi IV NPC Hydropower Bukidnon Pulangi 3,633 Concrete 115 287 Gravity Data sources: 1) JICA, "water & Floods", 2003 2) JICA; "Master Plan Studyon Water Resources Management ,Final Report, Vol. IV Data Book", 1998 ! L Draft Final Report I- I L" 3.4.3 Existing Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems as Non-structuralMeasures Figure 3.11 shows the existing flood forecasting and warning systems (FFWSs) in the Philippines. Flood forecasting and warning is one of the mandates of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronominal ServicesAdministration (PAGASA). PAGASAhas flood forecastingand warning systemsfor 4 r" L river basins: Cagayan, Agno, Pampanga and Bicol, which are all located in Luzon. Relating to the FFWSs of Cagayan, Agno and Pampanga river basins, there are 4 Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems for dam r Operation (FFWSDO), which are operated by the National Power Corporation (NPC) and National Irrigation L Administration (NIA). They also connect to PAGASA's FFWSs.Although these systemsare in place, because of maintenance problems, some of the automaticwater level gauges and warning stations are not working. DPWH had a FFWS called EffectiveFlood Control Operating System (EFCOS)in the Pasig-Laguna de Bay River Basin (Pasig-Marikina River Basin) in Metro Manila. EFCOS has been transferred to Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) from DPWH. It is in good condition and it is utilized r for operating Mangahan Floodway to divert floodwater of the Marikina River (upper tributary of the Pasig L River) to Laguna Lake for mitigating or preventing floods of the Pasig River in the centerpart of Metro Manila. The observed data is sent to PAGASA . $" Although the area with high fkequencyof flood, sediment and typhoon disasters is wide, the area of coverage by the existing FFWSs is very limited. It is necessary to increase the coverageby FFWSs as well as maintain the existing systems. ? Furthermore, although PAGASA gives typhoon signals, based on wind speea, through media and L- networks of disaster coordinating committees (DCCs), this information is sometimes not enough to make a judgment for conducting a warning and/or evacuationby DCCs atthe localgovernmentunit (LGU)level,nor at p""' L" the barangay level. To increase the accuracy, information such as how heavy the rainfall is, the rise in water r level in the rivers and the flood discharge is required. The purpose of the above five existing FFWSs includes informing people through DCCs or LGUs aboutthe possibility of floods.However, the coverageof the existing L- FFWSs is limited in the country, and it requires more time and money to increase FFWSs in the country. To P improve availability of real-time information on rainfall and water level for DCCs at LGU level and barangay t, disaster coordinating councils (BDCCs), it is recommended,that as a provisional measure, observationson the rainfall and water level for select key gauging stations by municipality in cooperation with PAGASA and DPWH be carried out. 3.4.4 Forest Coverage The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) together with National Mapping F"' and Resources Information Authority (NAMRIA) are conducting a study on forest cover in the Philippines ! based on satellite images. The studywill make available informationon the area and percentage of forest cover L. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability in the Philippines. Present estimatesshow that as of end June 2004, overall forest coverage in the Philippines is only about 18 % of its land area. This percentage of forest coverage is very small compared to Japan, for example, which has a similar topography, flood and sedimentproblems includingtyphoons, but still has about 70% of forest coverage. It is generally noted that deforestationin the Philippineshas resulted in increasedvulnerability of the country to major risks from floods and sediment hazards. Although DENR has conducted afforestation programs in the country, the areas are limited. Besides, to make the reforestation efforts more meaningful, structural measures and flood forecasting and warning systems need to be provided - structural and non-structural measures need to compleme~~teach other. Furthemlore, it is important that afforestation programs are implementedwith people's participationto increasethe potential for economicbenefits. 3.5 Mechanism of Floods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters, Safety Degrees (Risks) and Problem Areas Floods (includingflashfloods)are caused by both physical and non-physicalfactors.Physical factors include the small discharge capacity of river channels, which often causes overflow of the rivers, and insufficient structural measures such as river improvement. Furthermore, the physical reasons also include limited natural water storage capacity of river basins due to deforestation, which makes rainfall runoff hydrograph sharper with increased peak discharge and reduced duration. Non-physical reasons include improper settlement of houses and landuse in flood prone areas, insufficientinformation such as rainfall and water level to inform people of the potential danger of floods, while also giving information on evacuation activities before and during the floods. In the urban areas, drainage problems include decreased discharge capacity of drainagechannels due to illegal structuresand garbage disposalin the drainage channels. Sediment disasters (includinglandslides) are also caused by both physical and non-physical factors. Physical factors include large productions of sediment due to weak slope resistance against landslides, large amounts of sediment discharge in the form of sediment flows, debris flows and mud flows, as well as small sediment carrying capacity of river channels due to siltation. The physical reasons also include insufficient structural measures against sediments.Non-physical reasons include improper landuse in the mountains such as deforestation and uniform plantation of coconut trees, etc., improper settlements in hazard prone areas of sediment, insufficient information such as rainfall and water level, and insufficient forecasting and warning systems. In addition to the physical and non-physical factors causing floods and sediment disasters, insufficient capacity of disaster management systems result in the relevant institutions paying sufficient attentionto low safety conditions against floods, sedimentand typhoon disasters. r L Draft Final Report I-+ The following sub-sections describe the mechanisms of floods and sediment disasters including L capacity of disastermanagementbased on the analysesgiven in sub-sectionsof 3.3 and 3.4, and samplesurveys i- as well as questionnaire surveys conducted in this study. L 3.5.1 Sample Survey (SouthernLeyte and Capiz) PR"9 L To understand past occurrences of disasters and problems of disaster management, and assess the capacity to deal with them more objectively, sample surveys were conducted by the Study team in Southern Leyte and Capiz Provinces. These sweys were supported by NDCC and respective Regional Disaster L4 I- Coordinating Councils (RDCCs of Region VIII and Region VI) and ProvincialDisaster CoordinatingCouncils P" (PDCC of Southern Leyte Province and PDCC of Capiz Province). Southern Leyte suffered very severe L landslide damage with debris flow and mud flow in December 2003 in Panaon Island, which is located at the r- southern most part of the province. Capiz Province has often suffered from floods with very wide and deep i i, inundation (inundation area of about 320 km2and 1.5m to 4 m maximum depth)with prolonged duration (2 to 10 days). Such events have severely affected people and have been constraints for socio-economic development including agriculture:The largest flood of Capiz in these 20 years happened in December 2000. (1) Southern Leyte Province I"" L. Figure 3.12 shows the conditions of damage of Panaon Island in December 2003. There were two barangays, which were severely damaged by landslide with mudflow (Barangay Punta: 105 dead and 103 houses destroyed) and debris flow (Barangay Pinotan: 5 dead and 496 houses destroyed). Among them, Barangay Punta had many dead, because the village people escaped to one of the houses (evacuation center) FP* 1 just after the first small landslide happened, which after a second large landslide happeied, caused a massive mud flow which rushed towards the evacuation center where there were many people. Furthermore, when F- 1 people of Barangay Punta started evacuating, the only road to the nearby municipality of San Francisco was td already impassable due to the landslide and overflow of small rivers between the two places, and the only choice for people was to evacuate within their barangay. Escape by boats to sea was also not possible due to high waves along the seashore, worsening the situation. The impassable road also made it difficult for the rescue teams to get access to the damaged site, which delayed rescue operations. In Barangay Lutao, flashfloods with a landslide occurred and causedseveredamagesbecause many houses were located in a hazard prone area within the small valley. is There was no real-time rainfall data fromPAGASA and almost no informationabout the local heavy b rainfall in these remote areas to the PDCC locatedin the capital cityMaasin and surroundingmunicipalitiesdue PIOL to lack of communication facilities such as radio. The communicationproblems and lack of real-time rainfall information could not make it possible for the PDCC and MDCC to support the BDCCs in providing warning and evacuation. f: L& Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability r Through site investigationand discussions with PDCC members and the RDCC of Region VIII, the L - 4 problerns identifiedrelated to disastermanagement in this area are su~nmarizedin the table below. P Table 3.6 Problems of Disaster Risk Management in SouthernLeyte Province 1) No MitigationMeasures No structuralmeasures even for priority areas. against Floods, Landslide No forecastingmeasures. and DebrisMud flow Uniform coconutplantation with weak resistance against landslide. 1 1 No investigationon potential hazard areas and people live in the hazardous areas. 2) Late Evacuation Actlons I No real-timerainfall data available. Insufficientguidance to people for early evacuation. Lack bf communicationfacilities in remote areas such as radio communication. Final decision of evacuationis highly dependedon BDCCs and very weak support from MDCCs and PDCC due to lack of informationof disasterpossibility and communication. People's ignorance of earlywarning. Imvassableroad due to flooding and landslide. - I Evacuationby boats was impossibledue to high waves (nojetties). 3) Improper Evacuation Places ( Unsafe evacuationplaces: the major evacuationhouse of BarangayPunta was destroyedby landslide with mudflow. 2. RESPONSE 1) Took Long Time until Lack of rescue equipment (heaby equipmentand basic equipment such as shovels and ropes). Reachingthe Resc.ue Team Only one road, but it was not passable due to landslides and flooding. Lack of communicationfacilities (no radio communicatio~~). Lack of first aid medicinesand sanitaryfacilities. 3. REHABILITATION 1) Insufficientand slow Lack of budget. rehabilitation Bad accessibilityto the site (rehabilitationfor the national road along western coast has been finished,but that for the provincialroad along eastern coast has been done only partially) due to institutionalproblem. Dificulty of land acquisitionfor relocation (but finally, relocation sites for Punta was acquired and houses are I being buiit). Note: Evacuationincludingwarning is consideredto be overlappingmitigetion,preparedness and emergencyresponse. Conditions of DisasterManagement Capacitvin SouthernLeyteProvince and Directions for Improvement: r i Considering the conditions of disaster management and problems relating to the sediment disaster in Panaon Island directionsfor improvement are proposed as follows: a. Increase reforestation efforts to strengthen the protection of the area, presently only under coconut I plantations, whichprovide weak protection against slope erosion. This may need to be combinedwith structuralmeasures. In all, cooperationwith communitiesis indispensable. &, b. Control settlementsto avoid sediment and flood disasterrisks, particularly as many people live inside n 1 td the hazard prone areas, such as along the small steep streams. Although, some of the areas such as Barangay Lutao in Municipality Liloan were designated as high risk areas by the Mines and n GeosciencesBureau (MGB) Region VIII and Municipalityof Liloan after the 2000 Disaster, there are L' C mmy other similar areas which must be investigatedfor their potential disasterrisks. c. As the implementation of these structural and non-structural measures, as well as preparedness measures relate to various agencies, such as DPWH, DENR, DOH,Local Government Units (LGUs) and others, coordination among the agencies, as well as the institution of an integratedimplementation approach of the various measures is needed. This is also because disaster management has mainly P" focused on emergencyresponse in a very ad hoc manner, and has not really focused on the integrated L* , mitigation measures and preparedness measures. Furthermore, there is no coordinating authority for r managing the integrated approach.Therefore,it is necessaryto improve disastermanagement systems, i L9 in such a way that integrated mitigation measures and preparedness measures are possible. r d. Therecommendation above,to improvecoordinationamongthe various stakeholdersis alsoapplicable L- to the implementation of rehabilitationprograms.For example,the nationalroad alongwestern coastin Panaon Island has been rehabilitated, but the provincial road along eastern coast is still in a damaged $" h.. condition due to the budget constraints (by March 2004). These variances in the rehabilitation, unfortunately.contributeto continuedvulnerability to future hazards of the concerned areas. $" 1 L e. As for the warning for early evacuation and emergency response, Barangay Disaster Coordinating Councils (BDCCs),which have the responsibility for community level disastermanagement shouldbe I- L strengthened in capacity given their high responsibility, particularly, in terms of warning the communities and guiding people to safe havens. For BDCCs in remote areas, such as was the case of Barangay Punta and Pinotan, early warning systems are crucial, for an early evacuation. f. Furthermore, the capacity of Municipal Disaster Coordinating Councils (MDCCs) and PDCCs to I-=- supporting the BDCCs is presently insufficientmainly due to the limited numbei of skilled staff, lack L, of communication facilities, lack of information on rainfall in and around the damaged areas, and r impassable access roads. L g. Considering these conditions, it is important to establish support systems for evacuation and I`-- emergency response to BDCCs from MDCCs and PDCCs including capacity building of the staff of L these DCCs. Furthermore, communication networks, provision of real-time data on disaster r phenomenon such as rainfall, and improvementof access (roads and from the sea) must be improved. , ". (2) Capiz Province Figure 3.13 shows the flooding condition of the December 2000 Flood in the Panay River Basin. About 320 km2 was inundated fi-om a catchment area of 2,181 km2, and approximately222,000 people were r"" affected (including 19 dead) and property worth approximately 530 million pesos (in 2000 prices) was t L* damaged.As there are almost no flood control facilitiesin the basin, at the strongrequest of LGUs and DPWH, P* a feasibility study on flood control was conducted by Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in L, 2001-2002. Apriority flood control project was formulated,which is composedof river improvementactions, Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability c L a floodway in the downstream reaches, and flood forecasting and waming system covering the whole Panay River Basin. Ti id This study team conducted site investigation and discussions with the PDCC members in Capiz Province and the RDCC RegionVI mainly on the condition and problems of evacuation andresponse. Through fi U the survey,it becameknown that althoughwarnings and evacuation guidancewere provided to people from the PDCC, MDCCs and BDCCs several times before or during floods, many people did not follow the warnings r and stayed in their homes until the houses became totally or partially submerged. Based on the questionnaire L i survey on floods in the JETRO F/S, it was clear that about 54 % of the people in the inundated area stayed in r? their houses, Qimpiymoving to higher places in the house, including the roofs!. The PDCC and MDCCs sent dump tracks and boats to rescue people in the inundated areas. Furthermore, many people could not escape - because the roads were also submerged. i i kl Many of the evacuation centers (mainly schools),were also inundated, and people had to stay on the - 1. 1stfloor of the schools,where space is very limitedper person. Facilities and materials such asblankets, toilets, water, electricity and medicines were also insufficient.Furthermore, inundated municipalities tried to evacuate r: people to the evacuation centers within its municipality, but there were little network evacuation systems to 1, permit the neighboringmunicipalitiesto help the affectedmunicipalities. Findings on the problems of disaster management in Capiz Province are summarizedin the table below. Table 3.7 Problems of DisasterRisk Management of Capiz Province : & - - *i+;;s&$.@PrOblem *** -*; Contents i" " % 9 " " < - f :~- % 2 - 1. MITIGATION No Mitigation Measures against No structural measures and no forecasting measures. Floods No flood hazard map. High rainfall runoff and siltation by deforestation. Late Evacuation Actions No real-time rainfall and water level data available. Insufficient guidance to people for early evacuation. * Insufficient communication facilities in remote areas (no radio communication) People's ignorance of warnings for early evacuation. Impassable roads to evacuation centers by flooding. Improper Evacuation Places Inundated evacuation centers in low-lying areas and some of them are also inundated. There is a problem of lacking network evacuation systems to support the severely damaged municipalities by surrounding nlunicipalities without inundation. 2. RESPONSE Insufficient Rescue Activity Insufficient radio communication facilities in remote areas. Insufficient facilities for affected people (food, water, medicine, toilet and blanket etc.). Insufficient equipment for rescue (rubber boats, etc). Note: Evacuation including waming is considered to be overlapping mitigation, preparedness and emergency response. - Conditionsof Disaster Management Capacitv in Capiz Province and Directions for Improvement: l.7 a. The Panay River Basin has very limited forest coverage, estimated at about 8 % of the basin area, which is recognized as causing problems of heavy siltation in the river channel and worsening of the 1 flooding condition of the basin. Although DENR has implemented afforestation programs, the total laY l areas covered are still very limited. I-- b. This area has traditionally piloti type houses, which are appropriate for inundation conditions as they L result in lesser property damage. However, there is now a tendency to increase the number of houses with floors on the ground level, even in the potentialinundationareas,which increasesthe floodingrisk L damage. r L c. In order to control or mitigate floods and flood damage in the Panay River Basin, structuralmeasures such as river improvement and non-structuralmeasures such as flood forecastingand warning systems F-m \ i are indispensable. In addition to these measures, afforestation and conservation of the river basin is I, important to implement with the participation of communities. Furthermore, water proofing such as $" constructing piloti type houses in areas with a potential to be inundated should necessarily be 1 L, maintained and promoted in case of constructingnew houses. ""g I d. To reduce the impact of floods in the Panay River Basin andlor Capiz Province a well-balanced ! k ., implementation of structural measures and non-structural measures is necessary. However, as like in r other areas in the country, coordination between various concerned agencies for implementing these L~ mitigation measures, such as DPWH, DENR and LGUs, is relatively weak. Therefore, it is recommended that the coordinating unit, such as the PDCC be strengthened to better coordinate c-a Ld concerned agencies for implementingmitigation measures within an integrated approach. e. As for evacuation, support from the PDCC and MDCCs to BDCCs is rather well,done, but sometimes it is insufficient, especially for the BDCCs in remote areas due to lack of communication facilities, impassable access, and lack of real-time information on heavy rainfall and flood water levels. To P L conduct early evacuation, even more support from the PDCC and the MDCCs to the BDCCs is necessary. For this purpose, improvement of communication facilities and access roads, providing I"" real-time information about rainfall and flood water level are necessary. With regard to the L improvement of the above support, capacitybuilding for the staff of the PDCC, MDCCs and BDCCs r must necessarily also be considered. La f. In addition to the above, network supporting systems from the surrounding municipalities and P barangays outside of the affected areas is necessary. Throughthis kind of support system,it is possible t, to rapidly evacuate affectedpeople to safer places in the surroundingmunicipalities or barangays. 3.5.2 QuestionnaireSurvey To determine the condition and problems of disasterrisk management, questionnaireswere prepared f"" i and sent to the PDCCs. 12of these questionnaireswere filled-updirectlyby the Studyteam through discussions L Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability with the 12 PDCCs (refer to Chapter 8). Based on the questionnaire survey on the condition of disaster management in the provinces, the following information and opinions were recorded: (I) Constraints a. Insufficient discharge capacity of rivers and inadequate structural measures. b. Insufficientcommunicationbetween PDCC,MDCCs and BDCCs due to lack of equipment, such as radios especially in remote areas. c. Lack of afforestationprograms. d. Lack of hazard maps. e. -Peoplerefuse to follow warnings and evacuation instructions because they worry about leaving their property, as well as fear of living in uncomfortable conditions in evacuation centers. f. Insufficient capacity for disastermanagement of PDCCs, MDCCs and BDCCs. g. Insufficientrescue teams and equipment. (2) Opinionsfor Necessary Measures for Improving Disaster Management a. Provide and improve structuralmeasures. b. Implement and promote afforestation. c. Prepare hazard and evacuationmaps. d. Develop real-time flood forecasting systems. e. Improve communication facilities. f. Improve evacuation centers with facilities. g. Improve capacity building for PDCC, MDCC and EDCC members. h. Increase comrnunity level training for disaster management. i. Strengthenrescue teams and improvingrescue equipment. j. Establishpermanent office for disasterrisk management. k. Make the national calamity fund more flexible,to include mitigation and rehabilitation. Based on the questionnaire survey, it can be deduced that the PDCCs recognize the problems, including insufficient capacity of the rivers, insufficient structuralmeasures and non-structural measures such as afforestation and land use including settlement management in hazard prone areas. Furthermore, PDCCs also recognizethe insufficient capacityof PDCCs, MDCCs and BDCCs for disaster management, and the need to build their capacity. 3.5.3 Mechanism of Flood and SedimentDisasters Flood and sediment mechanisms (including landslides) are summarized in Table 3.8(1) and Table 3.8(2). TabIe 3.8 (1) Mechanismof Flood Disaster I Item Description i" 1. S h a ~ pRainfall Runoff 1) Sharp rainfall runoff with higher peak discharge due to deforestation. LA 2. Insufficient Discharge 1) Insufficient discharge capacity of river channels, which cause frequent overflows. Capacity of Rivers 2) Siltation of river channels decreases discharge capacity of river channels. 3. Insufficient Mitigation 1) Insufficient or almost no structural measures against floods in many river basins. Measures against Floods 2) Settlement of people in flood prone areas, and almost no controls. 3) Insufficient observation stations for rainfall and water level, and almost no real-time information on heavy rainfall and flood water level to PDCCs, MDCCs and BDCCs before and during disasters, which delayed the decision for early evacuation. 4) Insufficlent communication networks such as radio communication with the remote flood prone areas, which makes difficult for PDCCs and MDCCs to collect information about the conditions of potential flooding areas, and guidance to BDCCs for evacuation. 4. Insufficient Guidance to 1) People don't heed warnings for evacuation probably for looking after their properties. People for Early Evacuation 2) Final evacuation decision highly depends on BDCCs, thus there was weak support for deciding evacuation by MDCCs and PDCC for the BDCCs, which caused late evacuation of people, and people could only escape to the nearby evacuation centers within flood potential areas. 5. Insufficient Evacuation 1) People had to escape to the evacuation centers in their barangays or municipalities, which are also inundated or Networks under Supports of within the flood potential areas. This caused dangerous and uncomfortable situation in the evacuation centers, SurroundingAreas and become one of the reasons of people ignored wamlngs. 2) Wide evacuation networks with surrounding barangays or municipalities outside of damaged areas are insufficient. 6. Access Road Problems 1) Access roads to the flooded or damaged places or to evacuation centers were not passable due to flooding, which caused difficulty for early evacuation to safer places and delay of arrival of rescue team. 2) There are almost no alternative routes to and from the damaged sites. 7. Insufficient Rescue 1) Insufficient rescue equipment (shovels, ropes, rubber boats, trucks, etc.) delayed Equipment 2) Due to insufficient first aid equipment and medicines, severely injured persons could not be saved well. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Table 3.8 (2) R4echanism of Sediment (IncludingLandslide) Disaster Iten1 Description 1. Weak Resistance of Slopes 1) Weak resistance of slopes of mountains and hills against erosion due to deforestation, which makes higher against Erosion possibility of erosion and landslide, and produces sediments. 2. Deposition of Unstable 1) Deposition of unstable sediments along the rivers and foot of slopes, which have been caused by past sediment Sediment discharge and landslides. 3. Insufficient Discharge 1) Insufficient discharge capacity of river channels for water and sediment. Capacity of Rivers - 2) Siltation of river channels decreases discharge capacity for water and sediment. 4. Insufficient Mitigation 1) Insufficient or almost no structural measures against sediment I landslide. Measures against Sediment I 2) Settlement of people in hazard potential areas of sediment I landslide, and almost no controls. Landslide 3) Insufficient observation stations for rainfall and water level, and almost no real-time information on heavy rainfall and river water level to PDCCs, MDCCs and BDCCs before and during disasters, which delayed the decision for early evacuation. 4) Insufficient communication networks such as radio communication with the remote areas, which caused difficulty for PDCCs and MDCCs to collect information about the conditions of potential hazard areas of sediment I landslide, and delayed guidance to BDCCs for evacuation. , 5. Insufficient Guidance to Same as Table 3.8 (1) 4. People for Early Evacuation 6. Insufficient Evacuation 1) People had to escape to the evacuation centers in their barangays or municipalities, which are also within the I Networks under Supports of hazard potential areas of sediment / landslide. This caused dangerous situation for the evacuation centers. I SurroundingAreas 1 2) Wide evacuation networks with surrounding barangays or municipalities outside of damaged areas are insufficient. 7. Access Road Problems 1) Access roads to the sediment 1landslide damaged places or to evacuation centers are not passable due to sediment 1landslide, which caused difficulty for early evacuation to safer places and delayed arriving rescue team. 2) There are almost no alternative routes to and from the damaged sites. 8. Insuficient Rescue Same as Table 3.8 (1) 7. 3.5.4 Disaster Management Capacityfor Floods, Sediment and TPjrphoon Disasters Disaster management capacity also relates to the damage condition of disasters. Based on the field surveys,of floods and sedimentdisastersin the countryand the questionnairesurvey, conditions and problems of disaster management capacity for floods, sediment and typhoon disasters and their directions for improvement are described as follows: (1) Mitigation measures for floods and sediment disasters are composed of structural measures such as river improvement and sediment control facilities, and non-structural measures such as flood or sediment warning and evacuation systems, landuse management and conservation of river basins includingafforestationare needed. Dependingon the kinds of mitigationmeasures, there are various responsible agencies such as DPWH, DENR ,LGUs and others. The current situation is that each agency implements mitigation measures under its responsibility with or without illsufficient coordination between other concerned agencies. This lack of coordination, including budgetary difficulties, is one of the reasons causing unbalanced implementation of mitigation measures between structuralmeasures and non-structural measures. Draft Final Report (2) There is a need to support the BDCCs with better communication systems, early warning and evacuation systems through the MDCCs andlor the PDCCs, ,which is generallyweak. In addition, m 1 training for the staff of DCCs is needed to build capacity to better judge timing and actions for L " warning and evacuation as needed. (3) Relatingto the above support,network supporting systemsbetween DCCs needs to be promoted, so that safer places for the affected people can be assured with better cooperation of the surrounding municipalitiesand barangays. 3.5.5 ProblemAreas of F100dsand SedimentDisasters r Considering the frequency of floods and sediment / landslide disasters and severity of damages in i b , terms of provincial affected persons and property damage (total and per-capita), problem areas of floods and sediment(includinglandslide) disastersaretentativelyidentified as shownin Figure 3.14 andlisted inTable 3.9 E I" below. i, Table3.9 ProblemAreas of Floods, SedimentDisasters (Tentative) P"" Existing Major Control I Mitigation Measures Structural Measures Non-structural Measures ProblemArea River Basins Flood Forecastingand Warning System) Northeastern Luzon I) Cagayan None Exists Northwestern Luzon 1) Laoag None (D/D finished) None 2) Abra None None Central Luzon 1) Agno an8 surroundingriver basins Exists and under const. Exists 2) Gastemrivers of Mt.Pinatubo 3) Western rivers of Mt.Pinatubo Exists and under const. None 4) Pampanga Partially exists Exists Exlsts Metro Manila 1) Pasig-Laguna Bay Exists Exists Bicol and Surroundmgs 1) Bicol and,otherrivers Part~allyex~sts Exists Southern Luzon and 1) Rivers in Eastern Mindoro None None Eastern Mindoro 2) Rivers in Southern Luzon None None South and Northeastern 1) Panay None None Panay 2) Jalaur None None and Western Negros 3) River basins in and around Iloilo City None (D/D finished) None 4) Ilog-Hilabangan and others Partially ex~sts None Leyte and Northeastem 1) River basins in kyte and Southern kyte Ormoc C~ty:exists None Mindanao 2) River basins in northeastern Minidanao Other areas: none None None , 3.6 Directions for ImprovingFloods, Sediment and TyphoonDisaster Risk Management Consideringthe conditions of floods, sedimentand typhoon disastersbased on the secondarydamage data of NDCC and otherinformation fromconcerned agencies,and the samplefield and questionnairesurveys, general directions for improving floods, sediment and typhoon disasters risk management are proposed in this sub-section.However,area-wise,concreteimprovementdirectionswillbe possible ifthey arebased onprimary Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability L data and information,which canbe collectedfrom the respectiveareasby siteinvestigationand discussionwith concerned agencies and people in the areas. Followingis a brief discussionof the improvementsproposed: I 3.6.1 Providing MitigationMeasures (1) Structural measures for substantial flood and sediment control have gradually been provided by DPWH on a basin by basin approach, and mainly for the major river basins. It is also necessary to provide structural measures in the other river basins. It is advisable to consider priority for implementingstructuralmeasures among the river basins in the above problem areas. (2) To reducepeak rainfall runoff and strengthenresistance against soil and slope erosion of river basins, afforestation with various kinds of trees needs to be promoted for the river basins in the above problem areas. (3) It is necessary to investigate hazard potential areas and prepare hazard maps (or risk maps) (scale 1150,000and 1110,000etc.), and control land use includinghouses in hazard prone areas. (4) Information on rainfall and water level is indispensablefor planning mitigation measures as well as warning and early evacuation. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen rainfall and water level observationnetworks, and make availablereal-timerainfall and water level data for DCCs. It is also advisable to consider priority for strengthening the rainfall and water level observation networks amongthe river basins in the aboveproblem areas. Furthermore,in order to utilize the observed data as real-time data for the concerned LGUs and DCCs, it is also advisableto consider observations at key stationsby the concernedLGUs (municipalitiesetc.) under cooperationof PAGASAand DPWH. (5) General directions for the major structural and non-structural measures to be considered for the problem areas are proposed as follows: Table3.10 Proposed General Directions for Mitigation Measures for ProblemAreas C ProblemArea StructuralMeasures Non-structural Measures River Basin Northeastern Luzon Constructflood control Watershed management Cagayan structuresincludingriver includingafforestation. improvement. Landuse control. Improvementof existing flood forecastingand warning system (FFWS). NorthwestemLuzon Constructflood and sediment Watershed management Laoag controlstructures. includingafforestation. Abra Flood plain management. Others Install FFWSs. Central Luzon Continueor implementflood Improve existingFFWSs. Agno and sedimentcontrolstructures. Afforestation. Pampanga Landuse control. R~versaround Mt. Pmatubo Metro Manila Improveexisting flood control Control informal settlersalong Pasig-Laguna de Bay and drainagestructuresand rivers, flood control structures (Pasig-Marikina) facilities. and drainagechannels, and their Others maintenance. Maintain existing FFWS. r h.. Draft Final Report Problem Area Structural Measures Non-structural Measures River Basin Bicol and Surroundings I River improvement. 1 Watershed management I Bicol I Polders for key towns. including afforestation. Utilization of existing lakes for Improve existing FFWS. flood storage. Sediment control facilities. Install sediment warning system. Rivers around Mt. Mayon Southern Luzon and Eastern Flood control structures such as Watershed management Rivers in Eastern Mindoro Mindoro river improvement. including afforestation. Rivers in Southern Luzon. Install FFWSs. South and Northeastern Panay Flood control structures such as Install FFWSs Panay and Western Negros river improvement Watershed management Jalaur including afforestation. Rivers in Iloilo City Ilog-Hilabanganand others Leyte and Northeastern Mindanao Landshde control structures. Install FFWSs. Riversin Leyte and Northeastern Flood and sediment control Watershed management Mindanao structures. including afforestationwith vanous kings of trees. Landuse and settlement control 1 in disasterrisk areas. 1 1 3.6.2 Promote Early Evacuation (1) Improve evacuation centers and stock them appropriately with supplies such as blankets, toilets, water, electricity, food and medicine. It is advisableto start developinginventory data of evacuation centers as the basis for formulating evacuation and improvementplans. (2) Educate people to better understand and conduct early evacuation. (3) Improve communication networks of PDCC-MDCCs-BDCCs including radio communication with barangays in hazard potential areas, and strengthen support fromPDCC and MDCCs to BDCC's for deciding early evacuation. It is advisable to start developing inventory data of communication networks as the basis for formulating improvementplans. 3.6.3 Establish SupportingNetworks for Evacuation (1) Establish networks for supporting evacuation by surrounding municipalities and barangays. Using the networks, affected people thatneed to escape can be assisted rapidly . (2) To establish networks for supporting evacuation, it is advisable to start investigating the existing conditionsof evacuation by river basin or area, and develop a database for the evacuationconditions as a basis for formulating improvementplans. 3.6.4 ImproveAccess Roads andAcquireAlternativeAccesses (1) Improve accessroads, sothat they arenot destroyedor submergedby floodsor sediment,and ensure accessto disaster areas and evacuation centers. (2) If it is difficult to access the disaster struck areas by roads, alternative access to the sites or to evacuationcentersneeds to be established (example: from sea or river by boats). (3) To improve access' conditions, it is advisable to start investigating the existing conditions and problems of accessby river basins or area as a basis for formulating improvementplans. Natural Disaster Risk Managementin the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability r 3.6.5 StrengthenRescueActivities i u (1) Improve communicationnetworksto and fromPDCC-MDCCs-BDCCsfor immediatestartofrescue actions. u (2) Strengthenrescue teams, includingprovision of training. (3) Improverescue equipmentand store first aid facilitiesto carry out early and effectiverescue. (4) To formulateimprovementplans forrescue activities,it is advisableto startinvestigatingthe existing conditionsand problems of rescue activities includingrescue teams, equipment and facilities. 3.6.6 ImproveDisasterManagementCapacity(refer to Sub-section3.5.4) (1) For a comprehensive risk reduction strategy, it is important to formulate integrated management systems for disaster management, covering mitigation, preparedness, response and rehabilitation with the coordinationof concerned agenciesincludingfunding arrangements. (2) Strengthen support to BDCCs from PDCCs, MDCCs,and CDCCs for disaster management includingearly warning and evacuationjudgment and actions. (3) Conductcapacitybuilding of the staff concernedwith disaster management activities. 3.6.7 Formulate a Frameworkand MasterPlans for DisasterRisk Management (1) Consideringthe aboveitems 1)to 6), formulatea frameworkfor improvingdisasterrisk management (coveringfloods,sediment,typhoons,earthquakeandvolcanic disasters),which includespreparation of a mitigation plan; strengthening preparedness, response and rehabilitation activities. In the Framework,various kinds of menus for improving disaster risk management, to be implementedby the Government, province, city, municipality and people, as well as by financial and technical assistancefrom donor agencies and countries shouldbe presented,. (2) Based on the Framework, formulate master plans for disaster risk management basin by basin includingthe concernedprovinces. Chapter 4. Study on Earthquake Disaster Final Report CHAPTER 4. STUDYON EARTHQUAKEDISASTER 4.1 Geographical Condition of the Philippines 4.1.1 Geographical Location of the Philippines The Philippines are locatedin an earthquakeprone area, commonlyknown as the Pacificring of fire. The country lies between two major tectonicplates, and also has many active faultswithin its land area. Figure 4.1 shows the PhilippineArchipelago with its bounding trenches, subductionzones and active faults. According to PHIVOLCS, the northwestward moving Pacific Plate is presently pushing the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the eastern side of Philippine archipelagoat the rate of about 7 cm per year. The oceanic parts of the slower-movingEurasian Plate are being subducted along the western side of Luzon and Mindoro at the rate of 3 cm per year. The northeastward component of the Eurasian Plate motion is now sustaining the active collision of the continentalblock of Palawan with Mindoro and of thenorthern sectionsof the Zamboanga Peninsula with western Mindanao. These plate interactions, displacements along the Philippine Fault Zone which decouplethe northwestwardmotion of the Pacific with the southeastward motion of the Eurasian Plate, and movements along other active faults are the reasons for the present-day high seismicity of the Philippines. 4.1.2 Active Faults Figure 4.2 shows the distribution of active faults with active trenches. One of the most significant active faults in the Philippines is the Philippine fault zone (PFZ) and its splays. Strong earthquakes in historical times were causedby movement of these faults. PFZ extends 1,600krnfromLuzon through eastern Visayas to eastern Mindanao. Digdig fault (induced 16 July 1990Luzon earthquake), Lupao Fault, and San Manuel Fault are the major splays of the PFZ. Other significant active faults within the Philippines are the following: (I) Aglubang river fault, locatedin northeastportion of Mindoro Islandwhich inducedtheNovember 15, 1994earthquake. This earthquakebrought many casualties through a resultant Tsunami. (2) The Valley fault system (VFS) located 5 krn east of the Metro Manila that runs north to south. This fault is assumed to have at least ruptured three times within the last 1400 years. Since it is located very close to the Metropolitan Manila, where all the economical, social, and cultural assets are assembled, the impact of a potential future eruption could cause damage that would be very destructive to the nation. (3) Tablas fault is located on the eastern shore of the Tablas Island, and the 7.9 Magnitude of the December 1621Panay Earthquake may have been generated by the movement of this fault. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability (4) Casiguran Fault is located on the eastern edge of northern Luzon. This fault caused the August 2"d 1968earthquakethat affectedbuilding structuresin the area, and also collapsedone buildingin Metro Manila, causinga total of 270 deaths. It also inducedthe Magnitude7.3 earthquakeofApril 7, 1970. (5) Other less studiedfaultsarerepresentedby the Mindanaofault, and Lubang fault. Theformer fault is a northwesttrending structurelocated in a western portion of Mindanao, and the latter fault is a west trending structurenorth of Mindoro. 4.2 GeologicalCondition,Population and Urbanization 4.2.1 PopulationIncrease and its Distribution of the Philippisnes Figure 4.3 shows the population changes and average annual rates of increase of the Philippines, through years 1799to 2000. Details are showninTable4.1. The figure shows thatpopulation growthboomed from 1960to 1990with ahigh averageannualrate increaseofnearly 3%. The annualrate increasehas lowered recently; however, it is stillhigh, averagingaround 2.3%. The populationis still consideredto be increasing at the same rates and the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) has estimated that the national population will be around 92 million,in year 2010 based on aprojectionof an annual increaseof 1.87%a year. Final Re~ort Table 4.1 Population of the Philippines Census years 1799 to 2000 Census Years 1799 Average annual rate of Source of data to ZOO0 increase (96) 1799 1,502,574 - Fr. Buzeta 1800 1,561,251 3.91 Fr. Zuniga 1812 1,933,331 1.8 Cedulas I 1819 I 2,106,230 1 1.23 1Cedulas I I 1829 1 2,593,287 1 2.1 1Church I I 1840 I 3,096,031 1 1.62 1Local officials I 1850 3,857,424 2.22 Fr. Buzeta 1858 4,290,381 1.34 Bowring 1870 4,712,006 0.78 Guia de Manila 1877 5,567,685 2.41 Census 1887 5,984,727 0.72 Census 1896 6,261,339 0.5 Prof. Plehn's estimatebased on censusrecords. 1903 7,635,426 2.87 Census I 1918 I 10,314,310 ( 2.03 ( Census 1 1939 16,000,303 1 2.11 1Census 1948 19,234.182 1 2.07 1Census 1 1960 I 27,087,685 1 2.89 1Census I I 1970 I 36,684,486 1 3.08 1Census I I 1975 I 42,070,660 1 2.78 1Census I 1980 48,098,460 2.71 Census 1990 60,703,206 2.35 Census 1995 68,616,536 2.32 Census 2000 76,498,735 2.36 Census Note: Population from 1799to 1896excludes non-Christians. a - Includes the household population, homeless population, Filipinos in Philippine EmbassieslConsulate~and missions abroad and institutionalpopulation who are foundliving in institutionalliving quarterssuch as penal institutions,orphanages,hospitals,militarycamps, etc. at the time of the census taking. Source: National Statistics Office1through NSCB web page Figure 4.4 shows the population densityand its transition for the past 20 years. These figurespresent the overall growth in density throughout the Philippines, especially along the north-south corridor of the country, the so- called the S-zone. The population in the metropolitan areas, such as Metropolitan Manila, Metropolitan Cebu, and Davao has experiencedespeciallyhigh population increases. 4.2.2 Capital Cities in the Philippines (1) Urbanization of the Philippines The Philippines is one of the fastest urbanizing countries in the world, with an estimated average annual urban growth rate of 5.14% between 1960 and 1995. In 1999,the Philippineswas estimated to have an urban population of 38.6 million (52% of the total population, still estimatedto increaseto 61% by 2010). Most urban population growth is taking place in low density peri-urban areas. These areas arejust outside of the capital city Metro Manila, in Cavite and Laguna Provinces, and in major secondary -4-3- Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability n cities.There arethree dominanturban centers in the Philippines:namely, Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, L ar,d Davao, whose populations are more than 1million each. i- L Thepopulation of these three regions: Capital Region (NCR; Region VII (Central Visayas, including Metropolitan Cebu); and XI (Davao Region, including Davao) total approximately 21 million, or about 27% of the total population. GRDP of these three regions is 1,949,580million pesos, sharing r-- approximatelyhalf of the GDP of the Philippines. Table 4.2 Population and GRDP of NCR, Region VII, and XI L w / 1 GRDP Population % (Year 2002 at2003 Region price level (Mil. Peso)) NCR 9,932,560 13.0 1,443,269 35.9 VII 5,706,953 7.5 285,817 7.1 XI 5,189,335 6.8 220,494 5.5 Sub-total 20,828,848 27.2 1,949,580 48.5 Others 55,675,229 1 72.8 1 2,073,114 1 51.5 Total 76,504,077 1 100.0 I 4,022,694 1 100.0 Source: created from NSO data (2) Othef Highly Urban Areas Other highly urbanized areas, with their capital cities are shown in Figure 4.5. There are a total of 32 r cities and municipalities in the Philippines, based on NSO data, which defines a city or municipality L as one that is highly urban, having a population of more than 200,000 or has an annual income of n more than 50 million pesos. W 4.2.3 Population Density Distribution and Active Fault locations r; LI Figure 4.6 shows active faults and trenches overlaid on population density of 2000 per barangay. The figure shows that the active fault is spread along the north-south corridor, along highly inhabited areas. I- Secondly,there are active faults along the highly urbanized areas. The NCR, could be greatly affected by the I- rupture of the Valley Fault System, and also by other faults of the PFZ located in the outer skirts of the metropolitan capital. Metro Cebu is located along Cebu Lineament, and other faults located near the metropolitanareathat could cause devastatingdamageto the region in the vent of a faultrupture. Davao is also - located in an area where many faults surroundthe city. Expected economicand social losses, should the faults / I U to rupture, could be very large. 4.2.4 Distributionof Housesby ConstructionMaterials The census in the Philippines is officiallyheld every 10years, and includes a survey of the building - constructionmaterials ofboth outerwalls and the roof1. Table 4.3 showsthe number of occupiedhousing units ii by construction material, resulting from a 2000 census. The table shows that the four dominant construction 'Other important information included in Census are the year building, and floor area of the housing unit. -4-4- L h - Final Report materials of the outer walls in the country are as follows: (i) concrete1brick/ stone about 31%;(ii) wood 23%; (iii) bamboo1sawalil cogod nipa 23%; and (iv) half concrete1brick/ stone and half wood 19%. Houses with construction materials made of concrete1brick/ stone, and half concrete1brick/ stone and half wood aremainly in the urban areas, while houses made of bamboo1sawalil cogon1nipa are distributedin the rural areas. Wood houses can be seen in the urban and rural areas, yet more distributionsare seen in the rural areas. The "Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS), 2002-2004", sponsored by JICA, has developed a building damage function for Metropolitan Manila to estimate possible damage in the area, in the event of a disaster. The damage function was developed based on statistical information of the building damage and their structure during the 16 July 1990 Luzon earthquake. For an earthquake with an intensity of 10 on the MMI scale, the damage ratio of buildings made of wood is approximately 40%, for half concrete1bricW stone and half wood is 30%, while that for concrete1brick/ stone is 27%. In addition, the damage ratio is also affected by the constructionyears of the structures. These values indicate that there is a great potential for significantbuilding damage to the structures distributedthroughout the Philippines. The MMEIRS project focused on the buildings that are commonly distributed in Metro Manila. Therefore, the other typical building structures of the Philippines, the bamboo1 sawalil cogod nipa, are not included. According to the July 16, 1990Luzon earthquakestatistics,damages to these buildingswere visible; therefore, it could also be assumed that the damages to such types of buildings can be expected. It is recognized worldwide from the evidence of past disasters,that many countries in seismic areas, particularly in developing countries, possess many highly vulnerable structures that may collapse under extreme seismic forces. The effects and consequences of earthquakes are varied, but a key issue is the relationship of earthquakes to unsafe structures.' *ATRISK, Natural hazards, people's vulnerability,and disasters, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner, London and New York: D 168-169 Natiiral Disastcr Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing V~ilnerability Table 4.3 Number of Occupied Hsnsing Units by OuterWall and Roof ConstructionMaterial: 2000 Construction Materials of the Roof Tdtal Construction Number of Half Makeshift Materials of occupied % Galvanized Ti'd Cogon/ Galvanized Salvagedl Asbestos1 Not the Outer Ironl Concrete1 Wood Ironl Half- Improvised Others Reported Walls Anahalv Units Aluminum Clay Tile Materials Total 14,891,127 100.0 10,066,730 138,050 689,226 306,121 3,315,374 107,786 57,300 210,540 4,587,978 30.8 4,323,530 100,987 67,627 10,657 73,176 2,934 9,067 bricklstone Wood 3,381,339 22.7 2,263,524 10,670 70,193 227,549 786,637 12,031 10,735 Half concrete/ brick/stone 2,816,272 18.9 2,146,675 17,607 483,460 23,369 137,000 3,995 4,166 andhalfwood Galvanized I iron1alumin11 144,234 1.0 118,741 1,307 13,389 3,827 6,159 539 272 rn Bamboo/ sawalil 3,399,180 22.8 1,044,744 5 43,592 35,625 2,238,453 15,775 20,852 134 cogonl nipa - Asbestos 8,823 0.1 5,623 1,321 493 262 1,121 3 Glass 4,895 0.0 3,594 669 260 121 249 2 Makeshift1 181,769 1.2 66216 15 3,030 1,212 38,497 70,817 1,884 98 improvised materials 352,293 2.4 85,186 4,536 6,466 2,948 33,167 1,129 8,634 210,227 reported No walls 14,344 0.1 8,897 933 716 551 2,285 566 320 76 Source:National Statistic Office (NSCB web page) 4.3 Characteristicsof Earthquakes 4.3.1 Available EarthquakeInformation Historicalrecords of seismic activity for the Philippines consists initially of written accounts mostly by foreign missionaries dating back fiom 1599 to 1865 and later from a more reliable database derived fiom instrumentalmonitoring conductedby the Manila Observatory (1865 to 1901),which was later on reorganized as the Philippine Weather Bureau (1901 to 1942), and subsequentlyrenamed as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (1948-1985). The Seismology unit of PAGASAbecame the forerunnerof the Seismologydivision of the present Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) (1986 to present)3. I In general, earthquakes that occurred before the instrunlental seismic observation started are called "historical earthquakes". The catalogue of historical earthquakes is indispensable data to the study of seismic activities in the area. Earthquakesrecorded by instrumental seismic observationsthat started in the early 20th century to decideparameters on the events and magnitude of the events are called "instrumental earthquakes". Destructive Earthquakes in the Philippines from 1983to 1995, compiled by Janette S. Manahan and Melchor P. Lasala, PHIVOLCS, DOST: introduction -4-6- Final Report PHIVOLCS recently developed an earthquake catalogue based on the data of other organizations and their original observation through the monitoring system developedthroughoutthe nation. 4.3.2 Earthquake Damages Spatial distribution of seismicity: Earthquake frequency of occurrence Figure 4.7 shows the spatial distribution of seismicity in the Philippine region from 1608 to 1999. This shows that the seismic activity of this country is so high, such that places without any seismic activities are rare. 4.3.3 Destructive earthquakes in History (1) Destructive Earthquake Database A historical destructive earthquake database was developed for this study to examine the characteristics and mechanisms of earthquake damage based on an understanding of the direct damage, notable secondary effect, and the direct cause of the casualties. The Southeast Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering (SEASEE), Series on Seismology describes a "destructive" earthquake as 'that which renders buildings unfit for use'. Some reports give very long narratives of earthquake effects, whereas others are described simply as 'destructive'. Both explanations are included in the catalogue, because it is very difficult to understand which are "genuine destructive events" or just "seemingly destructive events". Recent data (1983 to present), however, is based on a moderate to large magnitude earthquake with shallow depth that has caused significant to heavy damages to manmade structures and has brought injuries'and death to people, according to PHIVOLCS paper. The following are the sources of this database: a. Southeast Asia Association of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering (SEASEE), Series on Seismology, Volume IV, Philippines. Part E Catalogue of Destructive Earthquakes in the Philippines 1589-1983pp 549-741 . b. "Destructive Earthquakes in the Philippines fiom 1983to 1995", PHJYOLCS + c. "List of Destructive Earthquakes in the Philippines", PHIVOLCS web page ' d. "Major and Minor Natural Disaster Incidents 1980-2003", NDCC SEASEE also describes that the information includes data that was taken from catalogues of Significant Philippine Earthquake for different time periods, newspaper reports, various earthquake bulletins and special reports on destructive earthquakes: for example, UNESCO reports and EERI reconnaissance reports. Therefore, the catalogueis compiledwith scientificdata and of written documents. Other sources listed above are also compiled in a similar manner. The database is designed to include as much information as possible on the following: Natural DisasterRisk Management in the Philippines ReducingVulnerability a. Date: Date of the earthquake b. Location: Longitude and Latitude c. Surface Magnitude: Size of the SurfaceMagnitude (Ms) d. Intensity: Modified Melicalli Intensity scale applied for the earthquakes 1599to 1985,Applied Rossi-Fore1Intensity scale applied for earthquakes 1985to 2003 e. Causalities:Numbers dead, injured, missing f. Damages: The direct damage observed g. Notable secondary phenomenon:Notable secondaryphenomenon observed h. .Direct cause of casualties:The cause for death and injury A total of 59 earthquakes were selected for further studies, which have minimum information on the location and the written description of the damages observed. (2) Return period of the destructive earthquakes Roughly, average occurrence of destructiveearthquakesnationwide is every 6.8 years. There are 7 of these destructiveearthquakesin the last 400 years, with large damagesdefined as those with deaths of 100 and casualtiesof 500 people or more. These devastatingearthquakes occurred at 57.7 years return period. (3) Destructive EarthquakeLocations Figure 4.8 shows destructiveearthquakelocations.The labeled earthquakesare the seven devastating earthquakesthat caused deaths of more than 100or injuries of 500. The label and size of magnitude show that the size of magnitude does not always proportionallyrelate to the size of damage. 4.4 Existing Countermeasuresand Plans against EarthquakeDisasters 4.4.1 Structuralmeasures (1) Existing Seismologicaland Volcanological Stationsin the Philippines As shown in Figure 4.9, PHIVOLCS maintains 64 seismological stations of which 34 are manned and 30 un-manned. PHNOLCS also maintainsvolcanomonitoring stations: 6 volcano observatorieswith at least 3-sensor seismic radio-telemetry, 2 volcanoes with 1 sensor seismic radio-telemeky and 2 volcanoes with nearby manned seismic stations. The ultimate goal of PHNOLCS is to increase the numbers of seismological stations to 100, a number that is still not enough to manage earthquake data effectively. (2) Database of Historical Record of Earthquake Historical data accumulated in PHIVOLCS basically came from two resources: one is historical records of earthquakeskept since 1608;the other is instrumentalearthquakerecords since 1907. Although $"" I- Final Report v earthquake catalog data is available, the database on damages has not yet been effectively constructed. The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) is the agency responsible for accumulatingthese data; however, the r casualties, damages, and estimated loss caused by the earthquakehave not yet been stored in an efficient Ld manner. psq I 4.4.2 Non-structural measures C, (1) Hazard Maps and DisseminationActivities I`- PHIVOLCS's principal mandate is to assist the country avert disasters and mitigate damage from geotectonic processes. Under this mission, PHIVOLCS has prepared earthquake hazard maps on a P" L national scale for PGA, earthquake induced landslide (Figure 4.10), liquefaction (Figure 4.11), active faults and a map showingthe tsunami prone shorelinesin the Philippines. MGB alsoproduced geo-hazard /- maps, including flood, landslide, and tsunami. However, there are duplications when MGB includes L earthquake and volcano hazard maps, such as PGA maps to their products. There once was confusion r- among the public, causedby the discrepancybetween Pinatubohazard maps producedby PHIVOLCS and E I L MGB separately. Such overlaps need to be prevented,to avoid public confusion. r For future hazard map developmentfor earthquakes,PHIVOLCS will followtheprocedure of hazard t L map development studied by USGSNSAID in 1994(ERPproject). Areas of focus for hazard maps as the r next stage are summarized in Table 4.4. L Tsunami hazard assessment is also planned. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability Table 4.4 Areas of Focus far Regional Hazard Map Development Region Cities Laoag CALABALUZON Luzon EconomicZone Subic 1 I I Clark Legaspi Bicol Alabay Panay Visayas Leyte I Bohol Davao Cagayan de Oro Mindanao Butan (2) PrublicAwareness and Involvement PHIVOLCS has three major activities for public awareness and involvement, mainly targeting barangays. These are funded by international donors and the Philippine government. Details are described in Table4.5. They are planning to continue expanding these activities,budget permitting. Table4.5 List of PublicAwareness and Involvement Projects Crustal Stress comnlunity natural disasters. Workshops, risk Lingayen, Quezon city, Marikina City, Awareness Network: I CSCAN I capability analysis for women, utilizing gov't fund Hibok-hibok(97), Quezon city (98), CBDM towards the community women leaders, and (gender+dev't Kanlaon (Panay)(99-OO), mobilizing women members for disaster management fund) Hibok-hibok(Ol), En~ployee(02/03), involvement in volcanoes and local levelto monitor and prepare for Volunteer volcano Gov't funded Taal, Kanlaon, Hibok-hibok, Mayon, volcanoes through distribution of the observers training (93-97) McKinley, Sursogon checklist and training of its usage to the I community members. Source:Based on the hearing from PHNOLCS Final Report 4.5 Mechanism of Earthquakes, Safety Degrees (Risks) and ProblematicAreas 4.5.1 PrimaryAnalysis of Earthquake Damages from Database (1) Direct damages There are mainly three major direct damages observed from the information available. These relate to ground damage,building damage,and infrastructurerelated damages. Simplifyingthe type of damages, ground damages generally create fissures, sand boils, and ground subsidence, according to the data. For building damages, these are categorized in one of three types: many destroyed totally, some destroyed - partially damaged, or no significant damage. Infrastructurerelated damage startedto be seen after around 1940. The infkastructure related damages are classified into three types: pipelinel water supplies, railway/roadbridges, and communication. Table 4.6 shows the summary of notable direct damage, from the 59 earthquakes. Table 4.6 Summary of Direct Damages I Tvoe of damaees I Number 1 I Fissures I 30 1 Sand boils 4 Ground Subsidence 5 Many destroyed totally 25 Some destroyed1partial damages 23 I No big damage I 4 1 Pipeline1water supplies 4 Railway1roads1bridges 9 Communication devices 3 I I I Note: Summary of direct damages may duplicate in one earthquake Source: Developed from the destructive earthquakedatabase, Study team Figures 4.12, 4.13, and 4.14 show the distribution of epicenters of earthquakes that caused ground, .L building, and infrastructure related damages. (2) Destructive earthquakes with notable secondary phenomenal damages Studying the available information, it can be concluded that there are mainly four types of phenomena that are induced by an earthquake: namely, tsunami, landslide, liquefaction, and aftershocks. For some phenomena, large damages resulted. It should be noted that the secondary phenomena for tsunami and landslide is notable throughout the Philippine history of destructive earthquakes. Figures 4.15,4.16,4.17, and 4.18 show the distributionof destructiveearthquakesthat caused secondarydamage. Natural DisasterRisk Management in the Philippines ReducingVulnerability - Table 4.7 Summary of Notable SecondaryPhenomenon1Damages Type of damages Number Tsunami 15 Landslide 17 Liquefaction 5 Aftershocks 14 Note: Notable secondaryphenomenon may duplicatein one earthquake Source:Developed fiom the destructiveearthquake database,Study team (3) Direct cause of casualtiesand its impact Table 4.8 shows the number of direct cause of casualties. This is derived from the.59 sample earthquakes selected for this study. It is clear that the direct cause of casualties is mostly from building collapse, although tsunamis and landslides cannot be ignored. Damage from the aftershocks is also significant. Table4.8 Summary of Direct Cause of Casualties Type of damages Number Building Collapse 37 Tsunami 9 ILandslide I 7 1 Aftershock 9 Others (Heart attack, electric shock) 2 None or not clarified 1 4 Note: Direct causes of casualties may be multiple in one earthquake Source:Developed from the destructiveearthquakedatabase, Studyteam Table 4.9 shows the seven destructive earthquakeswith large casualties where there were more than 100deaths or casualtiesmore than 500. The 17August 1976,Moro Gulf earthquake caused many deaths and missing persons from the resultant tsunami. According to the surveys during the event, the tsunami was responsible for 85% of deaths, 65% of injuries, and 95% of those missing4. It is said that the earthquakewas the largesttsunamigenicearthquaketo have occurredin Mindanao in the last two decades, in terms of destruction of property and loss of lives. The 14 November 1994 earthquake in Oriental Mindoro was also tsunamigenic. The tsunami accounted for the majority of casualties and brought significant damage on the northern shoreline communities of Mindoro. Approximately 63% of deaths were causedby the tsunami. It canbe concluded that if a tsunami is generated,the casualtieswill be large. The recent experience in Indonesia, December 26, 2004 more significantly illustrates this point. Other effects of the earthquake can equally be illustrated by that which occurred in 1918 in Southerr~Cotabato, whichresulted in major direct causesof casualtiesfromland slides and tsunamis. Historical data indicates that more than 100people were killed by the landslides. Landslides could cause a number of casualties in a limited area where the phenomenon occurs. Final Report Table 4.9 List of DestructiveEarthquakeswith Large Casualties 1 I I Casualties I Direct cause of casualties I Note: Shadowed represents the major cause of death. Figure 4.19 shows the direct causes of casualties in destructive earthquakes and their impact. The epicenter, illustrated by the label, shows the 7 devastatingearthquakes. This figure also describesthat the building collapse and/or tsunamis are a major cause of large casualties. (4) Fire SpreadingPossibilities Although the catalogue of historical earthquakesdid not showmuch damage from fire,recentrecords of world earthquakes indicate that even modem cities are vulnerable. An example, is Kobe, in Japan, which was struck by an earthquake in 1995 with the result that approximately 6,200 buildings burnt, despite the occurrence being very early in the morning. The fire was caused by a brqken electricity line, and it spread out through the urban structure-many linked buildings, of which most were flammable. According to the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) through the MMElRS study, fire outbreaks in Metropolitan Manila are large, approximately 4,000 outbreaks per year. 40% of the cause is electrical related, due to the leakage of inadequatewiring or lack of fail-safe devices. Fire outbreaks usually spread through densely constructedwooden houses. Referringto Table4.3 shownin the previous section,houses with wood, half concrete/bricklstone and half wood, and bamboo/sawali/cogon/nipa comprise approximately 64% of the total buildings in the Philippines. Gas distribution systems using underground pipelines are not common in the Philippines, because households in the Philippines use the cylinder type LPG, which are oftentimes unstably placed inside the house. In this state, there is a high possibility of the cylinders rolling over and catching fire in an earthquake. The MMEIRS study concluded that fire damage comprises a large portion to the total damages expected. Calculation in the study shows that the fire spreadingwill cause 9% of total casualtiesand 36% of total heavily damaged buildings. Therefore, fire is another important issue to consider. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability (5) Earthquake damage mechanism in the Philippines -1 In conclusion, Figure 4.20 explains mechanisms of earthquake occurrence in the Philippines, to better clarify the analytical process carried out. When the earthquake occurs, the ground ruptures, and buildings and infrastructure will be damaged by the ground shaking as the direct damage. Tsunami, landslide,liquefaction, and fire may develop within a small time lag. Largest and most frequent damages to be expected are the building damage; however, if tsunami or fire develops, it will also be a big threat that can cause both casualties and property damages. 4.5.2 Detailed analysis on sample areas Background Interview and questionnaire surveys were conducted to identify the existing situation of the PDCCs. The surveywas carried out following two tracks: 1)through the key informant survey on the 12 selected disasterprone areas,recorded by the consultants; and 2) through questionnaires disseminated through the' NDCC. As for the earthquake, 3 areas (namelyBaguio, Antique, and Mindoro Oriental)were selected for the key informant survey. These areas sufferedthe devastatingdamages during the July 16, 1990earthquake, November 14, 1994earthquake, and June 14., 1990earthquake respectively. Of the 17 remaining questionnaires, 8 of the provinces sampled, had recently experienced earthquakes. 4.5.3 Findings (1) Areas with large earthquake damage have introduced strategies to mitigate property damage. For example, Baguio city revised building design standards, and integrated the building height and environmental developn~entcontrols. They have allowed only a maximum of 6-storeys within the CBDand a maximum of 12floors within industrial zones. Mindoro Oriental is also enforcing a strict policy, requiring buildings to be earthq~~akeproof, and in addition, is restricting building heights to a maximum of 3 storeys. Also, land use restriction for buildings near the faults and coastlines. (2) The constraints for continuous earthquake disaster management activities are the lack of human resources and enforcementof restrictions. (3) Training for PDCC/ MDCC/ and BDCC personnel is additionally highly demanded preparatory measure by the PDCCs. However, PDCCs are not capable of implementing this training because of lack of funds. Identification of risk areas is another topic of concern for the areas that experienced earthquakes. (4) Not many mitigation measures for earthquakes have been taken up. However, the areas that experienced earthquakes are at least making an effort to enforce land use control and constn~ction safer buildings. Final Report (5) Important concerns by the PDCCI MDCC for continuous earthquake management are to establish permanent "disaster management structures". Commonly, disaster management involves extensive volunteering, resulting in some officers being over-burdened by the additional work. A permanent response and management structure developed through legislative actions, like that in Albay is desirable. The Albay disaster management unit is permanent, with an allocatedbudget, such that, it is not depended on calamity fund releases. 4.6 Disaster Management Capacityfor Earthquake In the Philippines, the Philippine Instituteof Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS), attached to the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), is the established national research institution and responsible for the observation of volcanic activity and earthquakes.This institution conducts observations of earthquakes and volcanic activities all over the nation and it possesses a nationwide seismograph network. Recently, through technical cooperation with the Japan International Development Agency (JIDA), PHIVOLCS has been expanding this nationwide monitoring system for volcanic activityby introducingmore seismographs. If an earthquake is observed,PHIVOLCSis obligatedto report the locationof the epicenter and its intensity to DOST and Office of President. Also for volcanic activities,PHIVOLCS is obligatedto conduct the samekind of observationsas for earthquakes, and to report to relevant agencieswhen it detects unusual conditions. With the current equipment,it takes more than ten minutesto calculatethe epicenterand its intensity; with further technical improvements it will be possible to conduct this calculation w&hin a few minutes. PHIVOLCS has the basic intention to strengtheninformationcollectionand disseminationcapabilitybased on regular observations of earthquake and volcanic activities includingtsunami warning. In the event of an earthquake disaster,BDCC and MDCC staff in the disaster stricken areas, as well as experts fromrelevant public agencies are obligatedto collect appropriateinformationon disasterconditions and report them to relevant upper level agencies.However,past experienceshowsthat for large-scale disasters, staff and experts in charge at districtlmunicipalityleveltend to have seriousdifficultiesin checkingthe damage conditions in the area and responding to the emergency. This is mainly due to accessibility difficulties regarding damage information collection and transfer. In general, a survey on the actual conditions of damage is conductedusing aerialphotography of the disaster area, using detailed topographic maps as basic data. Based on the data and site surveys, the amount of damage is estimated and a restoration plan is prepared. However, in the Philippines, detailed procedures for damage survey are not adequately sophisticated, and presently, the MDCC and BDCC experts only visit the damaged area to inspect and visually estimatethe amountof damage.This damage informationis transferred to C Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability r upper organizations such as RDCC, PDCC to NDCC after the necessary discussions by municipality b administrations. I- Another problem is that feedback is not given on the report contents. In addition, detailed data and L materials such as contour maps, etc are not well enough prepared to support feedback. i In case of a large-scale disaster, it is impossible for the government itself, without assistance from foreign countries,to conduct and complete emergencyrescue operations and restoration activities. fic For the preparation of detailed damage assessment and cost estimation for reconstruction related to large-scale natural disasters, such as Mt. Pinatubo eruption, as an example, the international society greatly supportedthe Philippine governmentboth technically and financially. 4.7 StrategyDevelopment Directionsfor EarthquakeImpact Mitigation in tlie Philippines 4.7.1 Direction of Measures to take for the Mitigation of Earthquake Impact Based on the clarified mechanism in Figure 4.20, there are three types of damages that may cause large casua1ties;and there are four types of damages that may cause large property damages. Building damage will cause large casualties, tsunami, the largest casualties; fire spread may also cause large casualties - depending on the urban structure. In addition to these three damages that may cause large casualties, liquefactionis another cause that may produce large property damage. Other causes of casualties and property damages are landslides, infrastructure/lifelinedamages from ground shaking. These types of damages are the focal items for the earthquake disaster mitigation measures. Table4.10 showsthe directionof measuresto take for the mitigation of earthquakeimpact. There are 6 types of disasters that need impact mitigating measures; the priorities are on the ones with large casualties andpropertydamages,as describedin Figure 4.20. Accordingto the size ofthe impacts, building damages due to ground shakinghave the utmost urgency to take some measures; tsunami, and fire, next, and infrastructure damage due to ground shaking landslide, liq~~efaction,and ground ruptme follow. In addition to these mitigation measures to take, there is need for research of earthquakes. Identifying the location of the most active faults will contributeto the preparedness of the region. Final Report Table 4.10 Direction of Measures to take for the Mitigation of Earthquake Impact Key Issues Characteristics of Damage Measures for Mitigation Buildlng Collapse - There is no time to be warned1predicted for Building collapse mitigation the earthquake (No time for preparation) - Prevention of building collapse (Researchand - Vulnerable buildings, that are old or dissemination) structurally weak collapse first - Area Strengthening on buildings and disaster - Majority crushed to death within an hour management. * These measures shall be taken fromhighly urban areas Tsunami - There are few minute or longer to escape Tsunami damage mitigation from the seashore, if tsunami is warned or its - Hazard map development (Two levels) impact understood. - Warning and monitoring system - Wide area along the seashore will be - Evacuation measures (Warning system and affected, depending on the size of the wave. awareness) Fire - People lose lives under the crushed house, if Fire damage mitigation they cannot escape from burning buildings - Area Development to enhance Fire proofing - Community empowermenton rescue operationand awareness of fire outbreak prevention Liquefaction - Buildings and properties in the liquefaction Liquefaction induced property damage mitigation area will be damaged or affected. - Develop hazard map on liquefactionpotential - Minimal land use control - Measures for newly constructingbuildings Landslide - Landslide occurs where the slope are steep; Landslide damage mitigation Geophysical condition is not good. - Hazard mapping (Steep areas) - Higher vulnerability with heavy rain1rainy - Land use regulation on the hazardous areas season Infrastructure1 - Infrastructure1lifeline damage will mostly Infrastructure damage mitigation lifelines affect the emergency response process - Strengthening on infrastructuresand lifelinesthat is important to emergencyresponse - Securing emergencyroad network Aftershock - Additional corruption of buildings Preventing additional casualties from aftershock - There is time to escape from the vulnerable - Assessment of important public buildings buildings - Evacuation of unsafe buildings Active fault - In addition to all measures that could be Research on earthquake taken beforehand, some faults should be - Research on locating the active faults Identified as threatening - Evaluate activities of faults located near the metropolitan1large cities 4.7.2 Building CollapseMitigationMeasures Building collapse mitigation measures, although very difficult, will be among the most effective measures to take to reduce the number of casualties and property damage. The proposed strategy for this measure is the study of methodologies for strengtheningthe four dominant building types distributed in the Philippines. Along with the study results, the methodologieswill need to be disseminatedto the public. These will be effective especially if implemented in the populated areas. Some studies on financial support systems for retrofitting or constructing earthquake resistant buildings may need to be considered. This strategy may be implemented through area re-development procedures or subdivision development procedures as well. Moreover, since slum and illegal settlement areas are estimated to have the concentration of building collapses, these areas may be strengthened through the programs of NHA, such as social housing policy. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 4.7.3 TsunamiDamage MitigationMeasures As described earlier, tsunamis could produce tremendous damages to the area, if they occur in a populated coastal area. Historical Philippine earthquake damage data shows that the largest number of casualties were due to tsunamis. To prevent such a high number of casualties, focus will need to be on the evacuation of people living in the tsunami vulnerable area. This mitigation measure will be developedin two steps: first by creating a hazard map to better understand the vulnerable areas, and then conducting public awarenesswith the developed hazard map. The public living in the vulnerable areas need to understand that they are at risk, and an earthquake could produce tsunamis that will affect many people. Strengthening of monitoring systemson the tide level observationis additionallyrecommended as a mid term goal. 4.7.4 Fire Damage Mitigation Fire spreadingin populated areas is anotherthreat to the modern cities. Althoughhistorical data did not show much damage from fire, recent world earthquakes have shown that densely populated areas with wooden houses have suffered large fire damage. In addition to area development to enhance fire proofing, community emiowerment for rescue operations and increasing awareness on fire outbreak prevention is recommended. Together with these community operations, fire suppression efforts are very important. Locating hydrants and water tanks within the high flammableareas is recommended. In some areas, existing hydrants are not maintained well and are thus out of service. Tnese not so well-maintained resources need to be taken into considerationfor full usage. The promotion of fireproof districts through the introduction of urban fireproof development is another recommendation. The idea is to develop many plots in urban areas that introduce networks of firebreaks. Axis of firebreakswill be composed of some geographical features,such as rivers, wide roads, and parks; supporting firebreakswill.be fireresistant buildings, open spaces, and plants. Parks can be utilized for evacuation purposes, and location of the water resources will be noted. Such methods shall be introduced to highly flammable areas. 1 4.7.5 Mitigationof Earthquake induced Landslide Earthquake induced landslides basically occur in steep areas with soft soil conditions, and have a higher possibility of occurring if associated with rain. Reducing vulnerability can only be achieved through land use regulationin the hazardous areas. For the development of regulations,hazard maps for landslides are indispensable. Final Report 4.7.6 Measures for Liquefaction PotentialAreas Although liquefaction will generally not cause large casualties, its impact on building and property damage is large. To avoid and or reduce the effects from liquefaction, constructionof buildings and property development in vulnerable areas is most effective. To identify such conditions, hazard maps identifying potential areas for liquefaction are necessary. Large scale hazard maps are useful to understand the detailed conditions. Minimal land use control andlor structural measures are recommended for the identified liquefaction potential areas. 4.7.7 Infrastructure1Lifeline Damage Mitigation Infrastructure and lifeline damage will directly cause casualties and property losses, and it will also weaken the emergency response and recovery. As for the emergency response, securing the emergency road network is very important within the region. Securing public facilities that will function as an emergency response center is another important factor for smooth emergency response. Also, reducing the lifeline damage will strengthen capabilities for emergency response and smooth recovery as well. 4.7.8 Additional Loss PreventionfromAftershock Analysis of the histoi-ical earthquake damage shows that there is potentially also a large loss from aftershocks. To prevent additional losses, public facilities,which are used as disaster management centers or evacuation centers, need to be assessed for safety for immediate occupancy. The public needs to understand that there are possibilities of aftershockscapable of producing additional large damages. The public needs to be informed about aftershocltsand damagepossibilities through public educationprograms: 4.7.9 Research on Earthquake In addition to implementing possible measures to mitigate earthquake damage, research on earthquakes needs to be continued. If faults throughout the nation could be located as the ones to pay most attention to, preparedness will be more efficient. There are mainly two directions for research: 1)research on locating the active faults nation-wide; 2) as well as the evaluation of activities of faults located near metropolitan/ large cities. Chapter 5. Study on Volcanic Disaster Final Report CHAPTER 5. STUDY ON VOLCANICDISASTER 5.1 Background Geologically, the Philippine islands were formed by active tectonic movement. Subductionby the China Sea Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate from eastern and western sides generated a complex of skeleton islands. Many fault lines and volcanoes are distributed all over the country. Geological activities such as earthquake, volcanic eruption and fluvial processes including erosion and sedimentation formed the present landforms of the Philippines. At present, 22 active volcanoes are identified in the country. Famous active volcanoes are Mayon, Taal, Canlaon, Hibok-hibok and Pinatubo. Past eruptions of these volcanoes have resulted in pyroclastic flow, lava flow, together with volcanic gas and ash falls thathave caused directdamages to buildingsand localpeople living around the volcanoes. Moreover,afterthe eruption,mud flowsknown as "lahar" occurredalongthe main river channel and large amounts of mud were transported to downstream areas of the rivers as part of the sedimentationprocesses. These mud flowsburied agriculturalland, villages, roads and forests.Their effects are long lasting. Necessary information on potential volcanichazards shouldbe prepared and disseminatedto relevant LGUs, barangays and communities using proper measures in order to reducehitigate volcanic hazards. 5.2 Distribution of Volcanoes in the Philippines According to the definitionby PHIVOLCS,the research institute for earthquakeand volcanoesin the Philippines, a volcano is designated as active if it has erupted within past 10,000years, is geomorphologically young as suggested by low degree of erosion and dissection,presence of young vent features and may lack or have very little vegetation cover. In total, 22 volcanoes are classified to be in this category. These are distributed in the northern, central and southernpart of Luzon,Negros, and MindanaoIsland. PHIVOLCS also * identified 27 potentially active volcanoes. Locations of these active and potentially active volcanoes are shown in Figure 5.1 and the names are listed in Table 5.1 and Table 5.2. Figure 5.2 shows the number of active and inactive volcanoes per province. In addition to these volcanoes, another 281 inactivevolcanoes are identified in the Philippines. Natural DisasterRisk Management in the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability Table 5.1 List ofActive Volcanoes - No. of Date of Last No Name Historical Eruption1 Known Location Eruptions Activity 1 Babuyan Claro 4 1917 Babuyan Island 2 Banahaw 3 1843 Laguna-Quezon Province 3 Biliran 1 1939 Biliran Island 4 Bud Dajo 2 1897 Jolo Island, Sulu 5 Bulusan 15 1994-1995 Sorsogon 6 Cagua - 2 1907 Cagayan 7 Camiguinde Babuyanes 1 I857 Bayuban Island Group 8 Canlaon 25 1996 Negros Oriental 9 Didicas 6 1978 Bayuban Island Group 10 Hibok-hibok 5 1948-1953 Canliguin Island 11 Iraya , 1 1454 Batan Island, Batanes 12 Iriga 2 1642 Camarines Sur 1800years ago 13 Leonard 10 Davao by Carbon 14 14 Makaturing 10 1882 Lanao del Sur 15 Matutum 1 1911 South Cotabato 16 Mayon 47 2001 Albay 17 Musuan (Calayo) 2 1867 Bukidnon I8 Parker 1 1640 South Cotabato 19 Pinatubo 3 1991 Zambales-Tarlac-Pampanga 20 Ragang 8 1916 Lanao del Sur-Cotabato 21 Smith 5 1924 Babuyan Island 22 Taal 33 1977 Batangas Source: PHNOLCS i"- 1 hi Final Report i Table 5.2 List of PotentiallyActive Volcanoes 21 Parangan Sulu 22 Pitogo Sulu 23 San Cristobal Laguna-Quezon 24 Silay Negros Oriental 25 Sinumaan Sulu 26 Tukay Sulu 27 Turnatangas Sulu Source: PHIVOLCS 5.3 . Volcanic Disasters 5.3.1 Type of VolcanicDisasters Typical phenomena associated with volcanic eruptions are pyroclastic flow, lava flow, fall of ash, gravels and scoria. Continuous ejection of sulfuric gas will also cause damage to people, plants and animals. These volcanic activities cause large disasters in the surrounding area of volcano. Depending on the type and the magnitude of the eruption, damage by pyroclastc flow is the most frequent and the severest,because of the speed at which the pyroclastic flowmoves down the mountain slope - an estimated speed of 50 rnlsec. Ash falls also extensivelyaffectthe area around the volcano.Thick layer of ash destroyshouses and agriculturalproducts. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines ReducingVuinerability Lava flow causes direct damages to houses and infrastructures;however, the speed of lava flow is always slow and human casualtieswill be limited. After a large eruptionof a volcano, huge volumes of volcanic materials such as ash, scoria and gravel will be deposited on the mountain slope and surrounding areas. These deposits cause secondary damage, especiallyin the rainy season,when these volcanic materials are washed away in the form of ~nudflow called lahar. Lahar may flow down alongthe river channel burying valleys, forests,agriculturalland, settlementarea, roads and bridges. A severeIahar disasterwas caused in Mt.Pinatubo area afterthe huge eruptions in 1991.Mt. Hibok Hibok in 2001also suffered from very severe lahar disastersdue to heavy rainfall. 5.3.2 History of Volcanic Disasters Six very active volcanoes out of 22 listed as active are designated based on recent eruptions. These very active volcanoes are Pinatubo,Taal, Mayon, Bulusan, Canlaon and Hibok Hibok. Historical data on these volcanoes are shown in the Table 5.3 and based on this table, the history of volcanic eruptions and hazards are briefly described. Table 5.3 History of Six very ActiveVolcanoes No' Of Population Elevation Base (km) Date of Last Largest Type of Name Historical (No. of (m) Area (lcm2) Eruption Eruption Barangay) Volcano ~~~~~i~~~ 1991June Compound Pinatubo 1,745m N.A. 3 1991 Total 932 N.A. volcanoes death 1814Feb. I 250km2 47 Mayon 2,462m 2001 Total 1200 N.A. Strato 62.81un (Since 1616) death 1911 5,000 33 Taal 311m 23km2 1977 Total 1334 Volcano Tuff cone (Since 1572) death Island 60 Barangays 15 6 Bulusan 1,559m 400km2 (1852, earliest 1994-1995 N.A. Municipalities Composite record) (within 4 to 10 Im) 25 Canlaon 2,345m 30km (1866, earliest 1996 N.A. N.A. Strato record) Hibok-Hibok 1,500m 290km2 5 1948-1953 68,000 Composite death 5.3.3 Pinatubo r; i ' L Mt.Pinatubo is located along the border area of Zambales, Tarlac and Pampanga Provinces. LA r. Historically, three eruptions were recorded by PHIVOLCS. However, two eruptions before 1991 were identified based on the interpretationof geological,geomorphological characteristicsand dating of carbon 14. Final Report In April 1991, minor shakes and steam eruptions were observed by a nun who was working as a volunteer for mountain people in Mt.Pinatubo. This information was relayed to PHNOLCS the next day. An international monitoring team was formed which involvedUSGS with the coordinationby PHNOLCS. Many seismographs were setup on the foot slope area of Mt.Pinatubo. At this time, no pre-volcanic activities were observed. In early June 1991, volcanic earthquakes were observed frequently and these occurrences strongly suggested a near term eruption. Based on the recommendationby PHNOLCS, the governmentasked the local people who are living within 10 krnradius from the summit to evacuateas soon as possible. On June 11, 1991, the infamous and largest eruption of Mt. Pinatubo took place. A huge cloud of volcanic eruptionreached more than 20,000meters abovesea leveland ash fall was observed in extensiveareas of western central Luzon. Manila international airportwas closed for one week because of ash fall. Mt.Pinatubo was 1,745 meters in height before the eruption, but after the eruption, the height of the mountain top dropped to about 1,400 meters after the upper part was totally broken off by the strong eruption. The shape of the mountain was drasticallychangedand a huge craterwas formed. Brokenparts of the mountain body and volcanic materials were deposited on the mountain slope area and also in the surroundingarea. The rainy season was starting at the same time in the Philippines and heavy rain fall in the mountain area washed away the newly made volcanic deposits in a form of mud flow called lahar. In the eastern part of Mt.Pinatubo, especially in the Province ofTarlac and Pampanga, rivers were totallyburiedby sedimentand this caused inundation.Roads and bridges, productiveagriculturalland and urban areaswere alsoburied.Thickness of these sediments in someparts was measured at more than 5 meters. The weight of the laiar and water caused such a heavy load on houses that many collapsed. As a result of these disasters, 77,000 hectares of farm lands were buried and 250,000 familieshad to abandon their homes, and 112,000 houses were totally or partially destroyed. Including public infrastructure damage, total loss was estimated at 10.6billion Pesos (US$ 366 million). Reconstruction and rehabilitation works for people in the affected area started immediatelyafter the eruption. Construction of river dykes and sabo-dams for controlling lahars have been continuing up to the present. This fact indicates that the rehabilitation of large-scale volcanic disaster needs a long time to implement and has a huge cost involved. 5.3.4 Mayon Mayon volcano is located in Albay Province in southern Luzon island. Legazpi city is the largest urban center in the area. The height of the mountain is 2,462 meters above sea level. Mayon is a world famous active volcano for having an almost perfect cone shape. Natural DisasterRisk Management in the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability r: L' Volcanic activity is very active and is recorded to have erupted 47 times since 1616. The type of eruptionof Mt.Mayon is classified into three categories,the first being the Vulcan type, which has made up the f"' i majority of the eruptions-at least 80%. The second type is the Strombolitype, which accounts for up to 19% of the eruptions. The third type, the Plinian type has onlybeen recorded once in 1814,and has been, ironically, i"" the most destructive. These type of volcanic eruptions with accompanyinglava flow, ash fall and pyroclastic flow always I F cause sizable damage to the surrounding area. A recent record of eruption and damage is summarized in the L" followingtable. 15 I I Table 5.4 Recent Record of Eruption and Damage of Mayon Volcano L: Year Eruption Type Damage DeathlAffected Population Pyroclastic flow 1968 Vulcan 6/? Lahar No Pyroclastic flow 1978 Stromboli 40/8,000- 15,000 Lahar Pyroclastic flow 1984 Vulcan 0/16,000--73,000 Lahar 1993 Vulcan Pyroclastic flow 70/60,000 Volcanic eruptions are difficult to predict. For the 1814 eruption of Mt. Mayon, pre-eruptive phenomena such as volcanic earthq~lakeor minor smoke ejection were observed only one day before the eruption, showingthe degree of diEculty in predicting an eruption. As a result, a total of 1,200persons were killed and many villages were destroyed.To control the impact of eruptions, some lahar control projects were started by constr~~ctingsabo-dam and flood control facility in the 1980s.In addition, PHNOLCS continually monitors Mayon and has prepared a volcanic hazard map. 5.3.5 Taal Taal volcano, located in Batangas province in southernLuzon island, is also world famous because it is one of the lowest volcanoes. The highest point of this volcano is 311 meters above sea level. In the central part of the lake, the Volcanic Island covering 23 krn2was formed. Many craters are found at the bottom of the lake and the island. In total, 33 eruptions have been recorded since 1572. Volcanic activity is very high and many destructive eruptions have occurred. In 1754, a very strong eruption occurred. This eruption totally devastated the towns of Sala, Lipa, Tanauan and Taal. Another large eruption which caused 1,334 deaths and destroyed surroundingtowns of the Taal Lake occurredin 1911.Ash fall from this eruption was observed even in Manila and covered an area of 2,000 km2. According to recent records, eruptions have occurred in 1965, 1969, 1976, and 1977. F""> i Final Report 1 More than 5000 people inhabit in the Volcanic Island, which is in an eruption danger zone. The type /L* of destructive eruptions that have happened here are the phreatic or phreatomagmatic types. In the event an I=- eruption happens, damages will be high and evacuation will likely take a long time due to the lack of a t transportation system. PHIVOLCS has installed a volcanic monitoring system on the Island. L, $" 5.3.6 Bulusan t b*r Mt. Bulsan is located in the Bicol peninsula and it has a height of 1,559 meters. This mountain is 7 located within the Ilosin Cardera which has an 11km diameter and was formed 40,000 years ago. In total, 15 i ku eruptions were recorded since 1852.Type of eruptionis mainly Vulcan. In 1978, 1980to 1983, 1994and 1995 minor pheratic eruptions occurred. Damages were not reported. According to PHIVOLCS, 60 barangays are located within the volcano hazard zone. 5.3.7 Canlaon Mt.Canlaon is located on the northern part of the Negros island. Mountain height is observed to be 2,345 meters above sea level. In total, 21 eruptions were recorded since 1866. The main eruption type is classified as pheratic. Recent eruptions were recorded in 1978and 1985.Both eruptions were not large. 5.3.8 Hibok-Hibok Hibok-Hibok was formed on Camiguin island and is located 15 krn north of Misamis Oriental, Mindanao. Mountain height is around 1,500 meters above sea level. In total, 5 eruptions were recorded since 1871. This volcano erupted intensely between 1948 and 1951. The most destructive eruption occurred in December 1951. Huge pyroclastic flow flowed down the north-eastem coast. More than 500 persons were killed by this pyroclastic flow. After these eruptions,the volcanic activity seemedto cease. InNovember 2001, the Camiguin island suffered fiom heavy rain storm brought by Typhoon Nanan. Volcanic deposits were washed away as mud flow or debris flow. Almost the entire island was damaged by this storm. In total, 220 persons were killed or lost within the island. Loose volcanic deposits are easily eroded and washed away by heavy rainfall. In order to manage and control loose volcanic deposits,knowledge of mud flowprotection and watershed management should be introduced including construction of structural measures. Also, comprehensive disaster management systems, including timely evacuation through community led activities should be prepared. 5.4 Monitoring System ofActive Volcanoes Before the eruption of Mt.Pinatubo, amonitoring systemfor the volcanowas installedin limitedareas such as Taal. Systematic installation of monitoring systemsfor active volcanoes began recently. PHNOLCS is installing earthquake detecting seismographs in the very active volcanoes. This seismograph installation is totally networked with the earthquake monitoring network covering the whole territory of the Philippines. Monitored data will be sentto PHIVOLCSby online ormanuallythrough the existingtelecommunicationlines. Natural Disaster Risk Management-the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability in The necessity of volcanic monitoring was realized by the Pinatubo case. Based on monitored data, PRIVOLCS and Government could dispatch evacuation orders to local municipalities before an eruption. Because of this early warning and evacuation, direct death by eruption was limited compared with the magnitude of the eruption. Existing monitoring systems will be extended to cover the main active volcanoes and furtherto importantpotentially active volcanoes in the future. 5.5 Mechanism of VolcanicHazards and ProblematicAreas Volcanic hazards consist of two aspects: direct and indirect (Figure 5.3). Direct hazard is caused by the eruption itself. Each volcano has its own characteristicsof eruption, such as interval,type and magnitude of eruption. According to the PHIVOLCS, the following six volcanic eruption types are identified in the Philippines: a. Strombolian b. Vulcanian c. Pelean d. Pheratomagmatic e. Phreatic f. Plinian. During an eruption, volcanic activity usually changes from one type to another, but most volcanoes have characteristic habits of eruption. In the case of Pinatubo, the eruption type is Plinian which is characterized by great violence withvoluminousexplosiveejectionsof pumice and ash. Due to this destructive eruption, Pinatubo caused huge damages in the surroundingprovinces. In the case of Taal Volcano, the eruptiontype is lcnownPhreatomagmaticwhich is characterizedby the simultaneous ejection of fresh magmatic materials and steamproduced by the contact of groundwaterwith the ascending magma. During the violent eruption of the Taal Volcano in 1911, many towns and villages were destroyed. The eruptions of Mayon Volcano are classified as being Vulcanian type and they are sometimes destructive. Lava flows, huge cauliflower clouds, and pyroclastic flows were observed. Pyroclastic flows sometimes cause intensive damages along the course of the down flow. Ln the case of the eruption of 1993, farmers working on the mountain slopes were caught by the sudden occurrence of pyroclastic flow and 80 persons were killed. It is very difficultto predict the locationand time of the eruption,especiallyforpyroclastic flows. The mechanism of volcanichazards is basically dependent on the magnitude and type of the eruptions as mentioned above. In order to understand these volcanic characteristics of eruption, detailed research on Final Report volcanic geology, geomorphology and petology should be promoted. Based on detailed research on each volcano, history of eruptions including magnitude could be clarified. Accumulation of such scientific knowledge on volcanoes is the key to prevent future volcanic disasters. Secondary or indirect damages by volcanoes are in the form of mud flow or debris flow called lahar. This phenomenon is always associatedwith heavy rainfall. Especiallyin the rainy season,loose volcanic ejecta or deposits on the slopes are severely eroded by heavy rainfall and transported to the down stream area in the form of lahar. Mt.Pinatubo, Mt.Mayon and Mt.Hibok-Hiboksuffered from severe lahar damage. 5.6 Volcanic Hazards and Poverty Problematic areas by volcanic hazard can be relatively limited to the surroundingareas of active or potentially active volcanoes. These problematic areas are shown in Figure 5.4 as a general concept. Most part of the national territory of the Philippines has volcanoes. Slope areas with more than 18% are classified as forest land where free development is restricted. However, due to increased population numbers, somepeople have settled in these areas. In addition,mountainpeople with traditionalcustoms live in volcanic areas, sometimes classified as Ancestral Domains. In the case of Mt. Pinatubo eruptions,a number of people of the Aeta tribe were seriously injured. Similarly, on Mindanao Island, many mountain people live around large-scale volcanoes such as Mt. Apo and Mt. Parker. In fact, their living standards are far below the poverty standard determined by the government. It is necessary to examine disaster management problems, including measures for evacuation and protection in case of eruptions, from a national vieyvpoint. It is also vital to prepare measures for illegal inhabitantsliving in wooded regions. In the sameway as mountain people, their living standards are statistically lower than the poverty standard. The government promotes preservative use of slope areasthroughprograms such as treeplanting. Presently, due to lack ofbasic information such as large scale topographic maps and existing land-use maps in forest land, it is difficultto prepare a disaster management plan includingresource management. In case of Taal Volcano,more than 5,000people are livingin the surroundingareanear the volcano in disregard of hazard warnings issued by the government of a possibility of volcanic eruption.This large-scale habitation is also a crucial problem in terms of disaster management. The inhabitants desire stable basic living conditions, however, this behavior is generating an additional number of vulnerable people and property. To prepare a disastermanagementplan, will require that measures for improvement of regional economic standards be considered as an integral part of the process - , and also be promoted. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability dm 5.7 DisasterManagement Capacity for Volcanoes PHIVOLCS is obligated to report hazard information related to the occurrenceof volcano disasterto fl Li relevant agenciesin the samemanner as that for earthquake disaster. So far,in the volcano eruptions of Mayon, Taal, Pinatubo, and others,PHIVOLCS has provided fundamental informationrelated to disastermanagement r7 such as information on the degree of danger and advice for evacuation. t J L In some of these cases, disastermanagement is effectively conducted while in others it is not. In the i-1 case of the volcanic eruptionsof Mayon, the occurrenceof an unpredictablepyroclastic flow caused injuries to LJ fa~mersworking on its mountain slopes. On the otherhand, in the volcano eruption of Pinatubo in 1991,direct /- damage such as casualtieswere minimized by early warning. LJ~ It is possible to minimize human casualties through timely evacuation, based on monitoring data analysisrelated to seismographs, geophysicalphenomena and visual observations of volcanoes.Therefore, it is important to conduct basic studies and research of future volcanic eruptions. In addition, it is essential to establisha well-structured system in which information on a danger can be promptly and timely transferred to regional MDCC and BDCC. 5.8 Directions for ImprovingVoIcanIc Disaster Management Development of preliminary warning systems of volcanic eruptionsis essential.In the case of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, there was enough time to dispatch an evacuation order to the local people. Mt. Pinatubo erupted 70 days later after the first catch of pre-eruption phenomena. Duringthisperiod,the monitoringteam was ableto fully discussthe change of volcanic activitiesand made necessaryrecommendationsto relevant agencies. Even so, nobody predicted the huge eruption which is recorded as one of the most violent eruptionsin 20th century in the world. The necessity of volcanic monitoring and early waming systems were in this case realized in the Philippines. Because of the early waming carried out and efficient evacuation of people, direct death by this type of eruption is limited to less than 100. Enhancement of monitoring system of volcanoes should be accelerated. The preparation of an evacuation plan is also important. For the case of Taal Volcano, although PHIVOLCS has prepared guidelines for emergency management called "Operation TAAL", such evacuation plans should be reviewed and prepared for thepeople living on the Volcanic Island. b r-"" In Mayon, a volcanic hazard map has been prepared and a dangerarea zoninghas been delineatedby PHIVOLCS. This Hazard Map is disseminated to local disastermanagement agencies.Even so, local farmers L n still sometimes cultivatecrops within the danger zone because of the rich soils of volcanic slopes. 3 Final Report LS To summarize, the following measures are necessary: (1) develop an early warning and evacuation system based on the monitored data on volcanic eruptions; (2) prepare detailed hazard maps; and (3) raise commur~ityawareness of volcanic disastermechanisms and impact. Chapter 6. Direction for Improving Disaster Management Data, Hazard Maps and Risk Models Final Report CHAPTER 6. DIRECTION FOR IMPROVINGDISASTERMANAGEMENTDATA, HAZARD MAPSAND RISK MODELS 6.1 General The primary need for the promotion and establishmentof disasterrisk management is to understand the basic conditions of the country in relation to natural disasters. To do this requires a well-structured information system dealing with the distribution of regional characteristics and natural, social and economic conditions, among others, that serve as influential factors contributingto disaster. The Philippines currently has insufficient maps and data that clearly show the social and economic conditions of the country as well as national conditions of (natural) resources and environments, which has become a crucial constraint in the promotion of national resources management, economic development and disaster management. For instance, there is a topographic map with the scale of 1:50,000 covering the whole of the Philippines, It was compiled by the U.S. Anny Map Services in the early 1950s,and has not, for the most part, been updated. Hence, it does not reflect changes in infrastructure,construction and land use. Therefore, it is not sufficient to base the preparation of regional developmentand resources managementplans. In considering future regional development and management of (natural) resources and environments, it is important to have a good understanding of the regional conditionsrelated to disasters.For this purpose, it is necessary to collect and analyze information on natural disasters that Gave occurred in the past. This should include the preparation of hazard maps of vulnerable areas frequentlyhit by disasters. Given how prone the Philippines is to disasters, it is important that the country has modern weather observation techniques which would make it possible to accurately trace and forecast that paths of typhoons andlor locations of heavy rain areas and hence provide early warning that would save lives and reduce economic damage. Data collected should be translated into usable information, including the preparation of risk models for natural disasters, both at the regional and national levels. 6.2 Floods, Sediments and Typhoon Disaster 6.2.1 Directions for Improving Data on Floods, Sedimentand Qphoon Disasters (1) TopographicMaps Topographicmaps are generallypublishedby NAMRIA. Due to budget constraintsand otherissues, the present state of maps in the country is such that those available are generally outdated, and are of a resolution at which its too difficult to prepare hazard maps due to lack of detail. On the other hand, vulnerabilities in many areas have changeddue to land use changeswhich arenot representedin the maps, and therefore land use planning is still to a large extent being based on information that is no longer Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability P 4- relevant. Good hazard mappingrequires maps with a scale of 1/10,000,although, a scale of 1150,000can also be used. r t-l Presently, the maps are being updated one by one, which will tale a significanttime to complete the E task. Given the fiscal constraints, and the severity of disasters in the country, it would be recommended thatpart of the criteriato selectthe priority of maps to update be the potential severity of the disaster. (2) Aerial Photographs i Aerial photographs are the basis for producingtopographicmaps, and in addition give the necessary P information to analyze potential hazard areas. Figure 7.2 shows the coverage and year of aerial IJ photographs existing in the Philippines. The coverage is about one third of the country. Furthermore, as many of the photos were taken before 1990,much of the forestcover and land use in river basins has likely changed sincethen. These aerialphotos will need to be updated for better accuracy. 1 (3) Rainfall C Meteorological observations including rainfall are mainly conducted by PAGASA. Other agencies such as NIA and NPC also have their own rainfall stations,which are used for their own purposes such as irrigation and power generation. Figure 6.1 shows the existing meteorological stations network of PAGASA. The duration of observations for each stationis listed in Appendix2. Almost all of the stations, i 1 except those stations for flood forecasting and warning systems (FFWSs), are operated manually. Therefore, except for the FFWSs stations,real-time data is not availablebefore and during floods, and in 67 4 the case of sediment and typhoon disasters, this is true for almost all of the meteorological stations. I Generally, the observed data are sent periodically to PAGASA headquarters - only after the disaster. r; f There are only 187meteorological stations in the country to capture the phenomenon of rainfall in river basins in general. This means that the average coverage of one station is too wide or about 1,600 lun2/station.Considering the size of river basins in the country, it is recommended that the number of rainfall stationsbe increasedto more accuratelycapturethe trends. Althoughthe coverage of one rainfall station should ideally be about 50 km2, it is not necessary to stick to this size of coverage.For installing rainfall stations, it is necessary to identi@ the places that would yield the data that best guides warning systems and planning for better mitigation activities. This may require stations in the upper, middle and lower basins. Furthermore, since rainfall infornlationis vital for LGUs and DCCs for forecasting floods, sedimentand landslide, and for warning people for evacuation,one idea is to conduct observationsby the concerned LGUs (municipalities,etc.) under cooperation fromPAGASA. (4) WaterLevel The water level of rivers is measured by DPWH Regional Offices, and the data is sent to BRS of DPWH. However, some water stationsare operated by PAGASA. The duration of the observation of the waterlevel stationsis shownin Appendix3.Almost all ofthe stationsareoperatedmanually, andreal-time -6-2- Zrrru, Final Report data is not available except for the stations of EFCOS System of MMDA and FFWSs of PAGASA. Data are periodically sent to BRS of DPWH from Regional Offices of DPWH usually after the disaster event. There are only 255 water level stations in the country, and coverageof one stationis about 1,180lan2. Consideringthe size of catchmentareas of river basins in the country, the coverageis too large to correctly I-' L identify floods in the river basins. It is necessary to installnew water level gaugingstations,so that floods are identified in the upstream, midstream and downstreamreaches of each river basin. Furthermore, since i" information on the water level is vital for forecasting floods and sediment discharge, warning people for L evacuation the concerned LGUs (municipalities etc.) under cooperation from DPWH could themselves r conduct the observations. I, (5) Data for DamageableValues r Asset data is indispensable for estimating damage. The following table shows the required data for L* assessing damage with their data sources. There has been no integrated asset database for s that includes $" damage values until now. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an integrated database on assets including id damage values. Table 6.1 Asset Data forAssessingDamage Data Item Data Source Quantity by Types Unit Value 1.Data for Direct Damage a. Residential building - NSO and NSCB data - City and municipality assessor - LGU's data - Site survey - Aerial photographs r' b. Manufacturing establishment -do - - NSO and NSCB data c. Wholesale and retail trading - do - - NSO and NSCB data establishment -- d. Educational facility -do - e. Medical facility - do - f. Agricultural production - NSO and NSCB data - NSO and NSCB data - Crop - DA data - DAdata - Livestock - LGU's data - NIA data - Fishpond - Landuse maps, aerial photographs and satellite images - Site survey 2. Infrastructure - NSO and NSCB data - Proportion to direct damage (usuallyabout20 - LGU'sdata to 40%) - Topographic maps and aerial photographs - Site survey 3. Data for Indirect Damage a. Opportunity loss and - Proportion to direct damage (usually about emergency expenditure 10%) L Natural DisasterRisk Managementin the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability T"i 6.2.2 Directionsfor PreparingHazard Maps (1) Hazard Map Needs Hazard maps show potential hazard areas for inundation, sediment flow and landslides, as well as evacuation places and routes. Hazard maps are the basic information for implementing non-structural measures such as landuse management, includingmanagement of settlementsin hazard prone areas. As was evident from the two sample surveys (Southern Leyte Province and Capiz Province) and the answers to the questionnaire froinPDCCs, the need for hazard maps at the PDCC level is high. This will likelybe the situation at the RDCC, MDCC and BDCC levels. Actually, many municipalities and cities have prepared very preliminary level hazard maps relating to their municipalityor city developmentplans, but they are not based on the topographic maps of NAMIUA such as topographic maps with a scale of 1150,000 or 1110,000.Therefore,these preliminary hazard maps are not applicable for managing landuse (includingsettlement)in hazardpotential areas.Inorder to prepare applicablehazard maps, it is necessary to be based ontopographicmaps of NAMRIAwith scale of 1150,000,1110,000or larger, or to be based on 9 recent aerialphotographs(mosaicphotos with scalesuchas 1125,000, 10,000,etc.) instead of topographic maps. (2) OtherExisting Hazard Maps Relating to the existing flood and sediment control studies by JICA and others, hazard maps or inundationmaps were prepared. Some of the examplesare listed below. Final Report Table 6.2 Existing HazardMaps or InundationMaps (SomeExamples) River Basin Prepared by Base Map Method Cagayan JICA (2002) - 1/50,000 - Flood survey. topographic maps - Flood hydrograph estimationby storage function - Digital elevation method. data of aerial - Two-dimensionalnon-uniformcalculationby photographs (2000) mesh (1 kmx 1km). Agno JICA (1991) - 1150,000 - Flood survey topographic maps - Flood runoff estimation and flood routine by storage function method. - Sequential two-dimensionalpond model by mesh (2 krn x 2 km) for inundation simulation. Pasig-Laguna de JICA (1990) - 1110,000 - Flood survey Bay topographic maps - Flood runoff estimation by storage function method. - One-dimensionalnon-uniformcalculation for water level estimation. Panay JICA (1985) - 1150,000 - Flood survey (JICA & JETRO) JETRO (2002) topographic maps - Runoff estimation by storage function method - 1/10,000 (JICA) topographic maps - One-dimensionalnon-uniform calculation for for low-lying areas water level estimation (JICA). along the rivers - Sequentialtwo-dimensionalpond model by mesh (1 km x 1km) for inundation simulation (JICA) - One-dimensionalunsteady flow model for water level estimation (JETRO). Pinatubo West JICA 2003 - 1110,000 - Rainfall runoff model (unit hydrograph) topographicmaps - One-dimensional sedimenttransport model (digital) - Two-dimensional mudflow model (3) Directions for Preparing Hazard Maps Directions for preparing hazard maps for floods and sediment (includinglandslide) are as follows: For Hazard Map for Floods: a. Prepare topographic maps as base maps at a scaleof 1150,000or 1110,000coveringthe inundation areas. b. Conduct flood surveys on the major floods such as maximum floods, second largest flood, and I average floods in recent years (exampleabout 10years, dependingon the records of floods in each river basin) and conduct questionnaire surveys in the inundation areas on flood depth, duration, I evacuation places, damage, etc. Based on the results of the flood survey, plot the surveyresults on I the above base maps and draw inundation areas with maximum water depth and duration of inundation. The map should also include evacuationroutes and places. c. Relating to the hazard maps, conditions of evacuation,response and rehabilitation conditions and problems should be studied. d. Conduct hydrological and hydraulic simulationson the recent maximum floods or probable floods and draw the results on the base maps (simulated maximum water depth and duration of inundation of probable floods). e. Inundation map prepared in the second bullet;above can be a basic type of hazard map for floods. -6-5- 1 Natural DisasterRisk Management in the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability Hazard Map for SedimentlLandslide: a. Prepare topographic maps as base maps with scale of 1150,000 or preferably 1110,000 and, if possible,prepare aerialphotographs coveringthe sediment and landslidepotential areas. b. Study erosion and landslide areas in the upper catchmentas sedimentproduction sources. c. Study unstable sediment along the rivers. d. Study landslidepotential areasby geologists and sedimentexperts. e. Study sediment flow patterns, including landslides disasterpotential areas and surrounding areas by the major sedimentdisastersinrecentyears (maximum,medium and average sizeof disastersif possible during recent 10 years or so) by questionnaire to people and site reconnaissance (including geological investigation). Based on the survey, draw affected places with area and depth of erosion and sedimentdeposition on the base maps. f. Simulationof sedimentflow and depositionby a two-dimensional sedimentflowmodel (however, it is not usually applied). g. Include evacuationcenters and evacuation routes on the abovemaps. h. Usually, items in the first four bullets above will be the hazard maps for sediment and landslide disastersfor the base cases. 6.2.3 Existing Loss Estimation Practices on Hoods, Sediment and Typhoon Disasters Existing loss estimation on floods, sediment and typhoon disasters is conducted: 1) during or just after the disasters; or 2) through separatestudieson a certainflood or sedimentcontrolprojects. The following describescurrent practices on damage estimationon floods, sedimentand typhoon disasters. (1) LossEstimationDuring andAfterFLoods, SedimentandTyphoonDisasters Normal procedure is as follows. a. InfrastructureDamage 1. DPWH Regional Office (withDistrict Office) investigatesthe sites of disaster. 2. InterviewwithLGU units concerned. 3. Estimateinfrastructureloss based on quantityof damaged infrastructure. 4. DPWH Regional Office sends the loss estimationto DPWH Central Office. 5. DPWH Central Office sends the estimationto NDCC. b. Agricultural Damage 1. Department ofAgriculture @A) Regional Office investigatesthe sites of disaster. 2. Interviewwith LGU units concerned. 3. Estimate agriculturalloss based on quantity of damaged crops etc. 4. DARegional Office sends the loss estimationto DA Central Office. 5 . DA Central Office sends the estimationto NDCC. --- ---- - . - -------------- Final Report c. Health Damage 1. Department of Health (DOH)Regional Office investigatesthe sites of disaster. r 2. Interview with LGU units concerned. L 3. Estimate health loss. 4. DOHRegional Office sends the loss estimationto DACentral Office. L, 5. DOHCentral Office sends the estimationto NDCC. d. Other Damage to be estimated by Engineering Offices of LGUs 1. Report from BDCC to MDCC / CDCC 2. Report from MDCC / CDCC to PDCC 3. Report from PDCC to RDCC 4. Report from RDCC to NDCC As it is necessary to report the damage quickly, the estimations above are conducted very roughly without detailed investigation on quantity and cost of damages. Furthermore,as there is normallyno area-wide database on assets in and around the damaged areas, accuracy of the damage estimation is generally low. Timing of reporting is as follows: Initial Report: Hours after event. Progress Report: As new developmenthappen. Final Report: 2 to 3 weeks after disasterbased on compilation of NDCC Archive Final estimates are recorded in the database. The NDCC/OCD Operation Center has 24 persons and operates 24 hours. Among the staff, some persons have IT background, but there is no person with domainbackgroundsuch as economics,environment, science, etc, limiting the efficiency for evaluating reported damage and utilizing the damage data for future improvement of disaster management. Recommendations: a. To increase accuracy of information, it is recommended to develop a database on assets . (area-wide database) in and around the potential damaged areas by floods, sedimentand typhoon disasters. b. As the reporting format on damage is sometimesnot uniform, it is recommendedto use a uniform format for damage reporting. $" c. It is advisable that a technical working group in the NDCC 1OCD Operation Center is formed to 1, analyze and evaluate damage causedby disasters,and theresults are utilized for the improvement I C of disaster management. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the PhilippinesReducing \rulnerability 42) Loss Estimation through Separate Studies on CertainFIood or Sediment ControlProjects Loss estimationis nonnally based on river basins, using informationfrom: 1)field surveysincluding questionnaires to people 011damages; 2) estimations of losses based on the historical damages; and 3) estimations of losses by probable events (floods and sediment) by using models. This procedure is the same as the river basin model described in the followingsub-section6.2.4. 6.2.4 Directions for Preparing CatastrophicRjsk Models (I) WiskModelforFloods a. River Basin Model ' A river basin model is the most basic model of risk models. Figure 6.3 (1) showsthe concept of a river basin model, which is usuaIIy applied by flood control studies in the Philippines. Generally, the river basin model is developed followingthe stepsbelow: Step 1 Flood and Flood DamageEstimationbased on Flood Survey ap Can be done without mathematicalsimulation. i. Survey of Major Floods in Recent Years (max, medium and average sizes) Survey of flood depth and duration, damage, and conditions of evacuation, response and rehabilitation. Surveyby site investigation, flood mark survey and interviewto people. Collect informationfrom LGUs and others Produce flood hazard maps including flooding area, maximum water depth, duration, evacuationplaces and evacuation routes. Problems of evacuation, response and rehabilitation will be analyzed and countermeasures for improvement will be studied. ii. Flood Damage Estimation in Monetary Terms based on Recorded Floods Survey on assets based on statisticaldata,landusemapddata, data of LGUs, and field sample survey. e Analyze damageablevalues and damage rates. e Estimate damage amount in monetary terms for the recent major floods (max. medium and average) based on flood hazard maps, assets, damage values, and damage rates. Estimate annual damage in monetary tenns of the river basin. Step. 2 Simulationof Floods and Flood Damage Case of necessityto assess damages with and without structuralmitigation measures. Final Report i. Develop PhysicalModel for ProbableFloods Develop mathematical simulationmodels for the following: Develop rainfall runoff model for river basins to simulate rainfall runoff discharge by probable rainfall. Develop hydraulic model to simulate flood water level and discharge of probable floods by inputting the results of the rainfall runoff model. Simulate flooding conditions such as flooding area, flood depth and duration based on the results of the hydraulic model. ii. Develop Economic/ FinancialModel Based on the assets data, assetvalues and damagerates, and the results of the PhysicalModel, estimate losses of probable floods. Based on the losses of probable floods, estimate average annual loss and return period losses of the river basins in monetary terms. b. Regional Model In order to estimate impactsto the economy ofregion and country,it isnecessaryto developregional models for floods.,Country level model will be the sum of the results of the regional models. Since there have been no regional models for floods developedin the Philippines until now, the following two methods are proposed in this study (refer to Figure 6.3 (2)). i. Proposed Regional Model 1: Regional Model Based on a Basin Model .. Since a region is composed of river basins, develop a river basin model for the each river basin in the region. Based on theriver basin model for eachriverbasin, estimatedamages of respectivefloodand annual damage to each river basin in monetary terms. Estimate regional damage of the respective flood in monetary terms and annual damageby sum of the damages of each river basin of the region. It is necessary to developriver basin models for each river in a region. It is recommended to develop river basin models for the priority areas first (such as the problem areas shown in Figure 3.14). ii. Proposed Regional Model 2: Provisional Regional Model based on Reported Damages, recommendedonly for provisional application: Since it takes time to develop river basin models for each river basin in a region, reported damages by DCCs can be applied for developing the regional model. However, since the accuracyof damage estimation of the DCCs is insufficient due to limited manpower and time for estimation,it is recommended to apply this model (Regional Model 2) for provisional applicationuntil developmentof the Regional Model 1. -6-9- Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability o Based on the reportedhistoricalprovincial damages, estimatehistoricalregional damages in monetary terms under price level of present year. e In orderto increaseaccuracyof estimationofregional damagesin monetaryterms, adjustthe historical regional damages by applying adjustment factors based on the results of some sampleriver basin models in the region (or in the country). Adjustment factors are the rates of estimated damages based on river basin model vs. reported damages of the river basin. Adjustmentfactors arenecessary to be studied from now on. Based on the adjusted historical regional damages, estimate annual regional damage in monetary terms. (2) Risk Model for SedimentincludingLa~ldslide Usually, disasters caused by sediment flows, including landslides occur in more remote areas than floods.Therefore,a river basin model is to be developed for sediment (includinglandslide).Furthermore, since it is rather difficult to simulate with sufficient accuracy for sediment disasters or landslide by mathematical simulation model, it is more recommendable that it be based on surveys for the recorded major disasjers, and any informationfrom the investigationof experts of sediment and geology. The Risk Model for Sediment (includingLandslide) is to be developedby the following procedure (referto Figure 6.4). a. Study major Sediment (includingLandslide) Study sediment/ landslide damaged areas with their sediment deposition area and depth as well as flooding area and depth. e Study sedimentproduction in the upper catchmentsby landslide, slope failure and erosion. e Study unstable sedimentalongrivers. Interviewpeople on the damage conditions, sedimentdepth and flood depth, and conditions of evacuation,response and rehabilitation. e Collect informationfrom LGUs. o Produce sediment and landsliderisk maps. Problems of evacuation,response and rehabilitation will be analyzed and countermeasures for improvementwill be studied. b. Sediment includingLandslideDamage Estimationin Monetary Terms Survey assets based on statistical data, landuse mapsldata, data of LGUs, and field sample survey. Assess asset values and damagerates. f L Final Report Estimate damage amount in monetary terms for the recent major sediment (including landslide) damages (max. medium and average sizes) based on sediment and landsliderisk maps, assets, damage values, and damage rates. Estimate potential damage amount in monetary terms based on the risk maps. Estimate average annual damage in monetary terms for the river basin. c. Resources to be improved In order to increase accuracy of the above River Basin Model and the Regional Models for floods and river basin model for sedimentincludinglandslide disasters,the followingresourcesneed to be improved, preferable starting in the priority areas shown in Figure 3.14. Topographicmaps. Landuse maps. Meteo-hydrological observationnetworks and improvement of data quality. Integrated databases for assets of provinces and river basins. Accuracy of the reports on provincial property damagesby DCCs. 6.3 Earthquake 6.3.1 Proposed Overall Direction Hazard and risk mapping, and risk modelingneed to be developed in the same scale for efficient use and methodology. The maps should cover, first the national scale, and also the regional scale, targeting the highly populated and urbanized areas with high value assets, such as the Greater ~etro~olitanManila, Metropolitan Cebu, and Davao. Following these, other areas that are listed in the PHIVOLCS's list hazard map plans shall be considered together with the highly urbanized areas, as defined by NSO. PHNOLCS has already developed the earthquake hazard maps on a national scale for PGA, landslide, liquefaction, active faults and a map showingthe tsunami prone shorelinesin the Philippines. These, especially the PGA, may be utilized for the rudimentaryrisk modeling. For the regional levelhazard maps and risk modeling, further efforts on data developmentwill be needed. For regional level development,Figure 6.5 describesthe general flow ofrecommendedrisk modeling development. Table 6.3 provides a brief summary on the direction of hazard and risk mapping, risk modeling, and Database Development. Natural DisasterRisk Managementin the PhilippinesReducing Vulnerability Table 6.3 ProposedDirection of Hazard and Risk Mapping, Risk Modeling, and Database Development Recommendation anti Suggestions Requirements for Hazard (Rislr) Data Requirement for Database on Direction for Risk Modeling Mapping Development Development - Evaluation/analysisbased Hazard Risk Modelingwill be developedonto Available data - Building statistics Mapping the risk map. 1. Earthquakeground motion - Population - PGA Distribution Additional information on financial - Technical data - IntensityDistribution aspectswill be integrated into the 2. Liquefaction model Further recluiredlnecessary 3. Tsunami development data 4. Earthquakeinduced landslide - Historical damage data Risk Mapping - Infrastructurerelated data - 1. Building damages Financial related data . 2. casualties 3. Infrastructuredamages Different types of risk maps: Ground motion, tsunami,fire, and earthquake induced landslide 6.3.2 Requirementsfor Hazard and Risk Mapping There are two types of approachesto developinghazard maps for earthquakes: one is hazard maps I i based on the historical records, and the other is based on the evaluation and analysis. To expand the hazard 1 map to a risk map, evaluation and analysisbased hazard mapping shouldbe carried out. The hazard and risk i F mapping procedure explained here is for the regional level. (1) Hazard maps F Earthquake hazard maps are defined here as a map of the physical hazards, excluding the possible IJ damages. The followingare possible hazard maps that could be developed: 1 n a. Earthquake ground motion u i. PGADistribution ii. IntensityDistribution b. Liquefaction c. Tsunami d. Earthquakeindwed landslide Examples of some hazard maps are shown in Figures 6.6, 6.7 and 6.8. (2) Risk maps Earthquake risk maps show possible damages, includingthe property damages, and casualties. The C following are the possiblerisk maps to be developed. a. Building damages b. Casualties c. Infrastructuredamages d. Fire t I -6-12- r e Final Report Different types of risk maps may be developed through the combination of hazards and damages. Commonly developed are the combinationof earthquakeground motion and building damage, casualties,and infi-astructuredamages. A combination of tsunami hazard and building damage, casualties, and infrastructure damage may be also important to develop. Figures 6.9,6.10,6.11, and 6.12 show some examplesof risk maps. 6.3.3 Recommendationand Suggestionson Direction for Risk Modeling Development Risk evaluation through the development of risk models will include the possible damages of man-made structures and economic losses inducedby them. Risk Modelingwill produce risk maps. Financial information will be integrated into the risk maps so that the potential damage can be calculated. As already described above,PHIVOLCS has already developednational levelhazard maps. Simple risk maps for building collapse can be developed. To better understand the national financial risk, a simple model could be developed based on the national level hazard map, and then developed into risk models with financial information. Information on the assets, includingthe building values, andpublic asset values may be added for the model development. 6.3.4 Data Requirementfor Database Development The primary purpose of database development is to meet the requirement for the hazard and risk mapping, and risk modeling. Very roughly, available data are the following: a. Building inventory b. Population c. Topographicmap (old and partially new) d. Geological Map (1:50,000, partially covering the nation) e. Earthquake data f. Land use (14 selected provinces) g. Pubic schools (Partially) The following data would be required to completethe level of datarequiredto make the databasemore complete: a. Damage data (Historical data) b. Infrastructure related data c. Financial related data I It can be concluded that for earthquakehazard and risk mapping, the developmentof a geologicalmap compiled at scale 1:50,000 is indispensable for regional level assessment. Also, developing the damage I records by using a more efficient database structureis very important for future studies and plans. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 6.4 Volcanic Disasters 6.4.1 Hazard Mapping of Volcanoes (1) Existing Conditions For the preparation of volcanic hazard mitigation, it is essential to lcnow the potential hazard area. PHNOLCS has already compiled a hazard map for six active volcanoes at a scale 1:50000. In the particular case of Pinatubo, Lahar and flood hazard maps were compiled in 2002. The potential hazard area for lahar and floodingis indicatedby five zones in this map. For Taal volcano, Rase Surge Hazard Map was compiled in 1999.Potential hazard area is shownby shadingon the map. The whole Volcanic Island is designated as a permanent danger zone. For Mayonvolcano,aPyroclasticFlow Hazard Mapwas compiled in 2001.This map showsthe 6krn radius permanent danger zone from the summit and the area prone to pyroclastic flow. The designated moderate hazard zone is between 6 to 8 km areas from the summit. The 10 kmzone from the summit is designated as endangeredzone only if Mayon eruptsviolently.Locationsof municipalboundary and river channelsare also indicated in this map. Contoursare shown at 100meter intervals. For Bulusan volcano, Pyroclastic Hazard Map was compiled in 1998. Three danger zones are delineated in this map. For Canlaon volcafio, based on the interpretation of aerial photography, a detailed geological map was compiledthat canprovide basic informationfor hazard mapping. The danger zone of this mountain is delineated at4 kmradius f?omthe summitand 19barangays are located in the potentiallyhazardous zone. For Mt. Hibok-Hibok, the 3kmradius zone fromthe summit is delineatedas a high danger zone and all of the northern part of Canliguin Island is classified as a danger zone. Within this danger zone, more than 21,000 people are living. These Volcanic Hazard Maps have already been disseminated to relevant agencies for necessary evacuation planning. Examples are shown in Figures 6.13 to 6.29. (2) Volcanic Hazard Mapping For the sixmost activevolcanoes, volcanic hazard mappinghas been co=piled. Eachmap has a scale of 1:50000. This scale doesnot have enough resolutionto show the details of volcanic hazard. Generally, dueto a lack of accurateand~lpdatedbase data and information,eventhemost recent research outputhave to be drawn on very old maps. Also, lack of basic materials for conductinghazard mapping is one of the largest constraints for natural disastermitigation research and planning. Large-scale topographical maps such as 1:5,000, aerialphotography, satelliteimagery, geological maps and existing land use maps should be prepared first for potentiallyhigh risk areas by volcanic hazard. Final Report (3) ExistingLoss Estimation forVolcanicDisaster Volcanic disaster causes serious damage to people, houses, infrastructures and agriculture in surrounding areas. Depending on the type of eruption, a large amount of volcanic ash causes enormous damage to not only surrounding areas, but also wider areas, even on a worldwide scale. In the cases of volcanic eruptions of Mt. St. Helens in U.S.A and Mt. Pinatubo, it has been suggested that the effect of volcanic ash ejected into the air leads to a reduction in sunshine and causesharmful influenceson weather patterns and agriculturalproducts. In this sense, damageevaluationof largevolcanic eruptionsneeds to be done for both macro and regional effects. In the present damage evaluation system used in the Philippines, regional officers in charge of disaster management verify the amount of damage, and the results are reported to NDCC through the PDCC and the RDCC. In addition, it is regulated that persons in national agencies such as DPWH, DOH and DA and so on, recognize situations of damage in each sector and report them to their own organizations. Generally, in order to promptly and adequatelygrasp situationsof damage, it is essentialto use aerial photography, site survey and others. However, this kind of survey method for damage informationcollection is oftennot totallyperformed in the Philippines.In actualcircumstances,in the case of a large-scale disaster, the collection of damage information, estimation and evaluation of damage cost and preparation of a restoration plan are conductedmostly through international support. 6.4.2 Directionsfor PreparingRisk Models Violent volcanic eruptions such as that of Mt. Pinatubo do not occur frequently. Existing historical data on the volcanic eruptions of the Philippines shows several very violent eruptions such as Mayon, 1814, Taal, 1754 and 1911, Hibok-Hibok, 1952 and Pinatubo, 1991. Heavily affected areas by these eruptions are limited to the near-by areas of the volcanoes. However, ash fall can reach more than a 100krn area depending on the direction and velocity of the wind. For the identification of a volcanic hazard risk area, the possibility l and interval of violent eruptions, as well as the size of the potential area affected, it is important to understand what happened in the past. Existing Hazard Maps for Volcanoes show the potential area of pyroclastic flow or base surge area and the potential area of lahar and flooding. These hazard maps have not yet been integrated on the detailed land use map which includes infrastructure distribution and population data. Toconductrisk analysisin terms of total damage cost in a volcanic area, volcanic hazard maps should be integrated with socio-economic data. For ths reason, detailed and systematic data inventory for the high priority area should be promoted. Research on potentially active volcanoes should also be promoted based on detailed scales.Volcanic hazard maps and risk analysis should be conducted. The possibility of a volcanic eruption can not simplybe determined by looking at current symptomsof the volcanoes. A study of the geologicalhistory of the volcano Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability is necessary. Mt.Pinatubo eruptedvery violently in 1991after a long quiet period. According to the study by PHIVOLCS, the last eruption of Mt.Pinatubo before 1991eruptionwas estimated at about 450 years prior! In the Province Of Bataan, Mt.Natib and Mariveles are located and are considered to be potentially active volcanoes. These two volcanoes show similar geological and geomorphologicalcharacteristicsto Mt. Pinatubo. The location of these volcanoes to Metropolitan Manila is closer than Pinatubo. If these volcanoes have a similar eruption as that of Pinatubo, potential volcanic hazard risk to the National Capital Region is believed to be much bigger than the Pinatubo case. PHIVOLCS basically intends to conduct detailed research on the following potentially active volcanoes, Mt. Apo, Cabalian, Cancajang, Corregidor,CuernosDeNegros, Isarog,Kalatungan,~aljo,Malinao, Malindig,Mandalagan,Mariveles,Natib, Negron, SanCristbaland Silay,to determinewhether they are active or not. Based on the detailedgeologicaland geomolphological data,volcanologistscanreconstruct the history of volcanic activitiesincludingthetype andmagnitudeof eruptions.Theseresearchresults onthe past volcanic eruptions are the key to forecasting future risk. Accumulation of scientific data on volcanoes is a basic and necessary step to have a more accurateunderstanding on volcanic hazard risk. 6.4.3 Direction of Volcanic Data Improvement The first priority is to conduct a detailed volcanic survey of active volcanoes. Although volcanic surveyshave been completed on the sixvery activevolcanoes, there are still another 16activevolcanoes in the Philippines.For potentiallyactivevolcanoes,detailedvolcanic surveys should also be conductedto clarifythe possibility of future eruptions. If the volcanoes are judged as being active, at least one set of monitoring equipmentshould be installed to monitor their volcanic activity. To supporta detailed volcanic survey, aerialphotography and large scaletopographicalmaps such as 1: 5,000-10,000 should be prepared. Detailed research on volcanic geology and geomorphology is the first step to acquire necessary data and information on future volcanic disaster. Enhancement of the monitoring system of very active volcanoes is also encouraged. Chapter 7. Assessment of Available Basic Data for Disaster Management Activities Final Report CHAPTER 7. ASSESSMENT OFAVAILABLE BASIC DATA FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES 7.1 Existing Basic Data Relevant to DisasterManagement This section discussesthe relevant and currentlyavailablebasic dataneeded for disaster management. The Chapter also discusses, the condition, issues and concerns related to this data, and presents recommendations for improving the data to make it more useful for disastermanagement activities. Basic data relevant to disastermanagementactivitiesand other studies canbe groupedinto fivemain categories: a. Physical Conditions b. Socio-Economic c. Public Facilities d. Infrastructure e. General Hazard Data The list of existing available data is attachedin the appendix. 7.2 Physical Conditions 7.2.1 Base Maps There are three available scales for maps coveringthe entire Philippines. These are: There are some areas for which larger scale topographic maps are available. Many LGU's in the Philippines have, on their own, initiated the preparation of base maps of their respective areas. This is based usually on aerial photography or satellite imagery. The scales used ranges from 1:2000 to 1:25,000. (2) Scale 1:1,500,000 The 1:1,500,000 maps covering the Philippines were originally compiled by the Philippine Coast & Geodetic Survey in 1954, while some locations were updated from 1987to 1997. The map is published by NAMRIA in paper form and covers the entire country on one sheet. (3) Scale 1:250,000 The 1:250,000 map series covering the Philippines was produced in 1954 with information from the Philippine Coast & Geodetic Survey, Army Map Service Corps of Engineers and the US Coast & Geodetic Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines ReducingVulnerability Survey.The 1:250,000seriesof maps arepublishedby NAMRLAand consistsof 55 sheets.Contoursare at 100 n~intervals. These maps have already been digitized and are being used by PHNOLCS for disaster related activities. (4) Scale 1:50,000 The 711 series of maps were originally published by the US Army Service and compiled from aerial photographs taken in 1947to 1953.Contoursareat 20 m intervals.Thetotalnumber of sheetsforthe 711series is 842. The 701. series map published by NAMRIA covers most of Luzon and replaces the 711 se%s of maps covering the area. The maps were produced using aerial photography taken from 1976 to 1979. The total number of sheets for the 701 series is 151. The National Topographic Mapping Series (NTMS) of maps will eventually replace the S701 and S711 I I 1 maps. The Philippines will eventually be covered in 672 sheets. The series is currently being updated and I 1 presently, about 79 sheets are available.Production of the NTMS started in 1988. I (5) Larger scale topographic maps I At NAMRIA, topographicmaps at a 1:10,000scale are availablefor some areas, namely: a. Metro Manila and adjoining areas (1982) b. Ilocos Norte c. La Union d. Baguio City e. Subic f. Legaspi City g. Roxas City h. Zamboanga City In 2003, 1:5,000 scale base maps were made for Metropolitan Manila as part of the JICA funded MMEIRSProject.Acomprehensive GIs that containsinformationaboutMetropolitanManila's infrastructure, public facilities,natural and social conditionsand other data was also prepared. A 1:5,000 scale topographic map was produced for Metro Cebu in cooperation with the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) from aerial photographs taken in 1988. Other areas with 1:5,000 topographic maps are Bacolod City, Iligan City and Metro Iloilo. (6) TopographicMaps at the National IrrigationAuthority NIA is tasked with the development, construction, monitoring and maintenance of all i~rigatiolisystems throughout the country. The total land area now under irrigation is 1,338,800ha of which 678,500 ha falls under the National Irrigation System (NIS), while 486,100 ha under the Communal Irrigation System (CIS) -7-2- Final Report and the remaining 174,200 ha is under Private Pump Irrigation Systems. The potential inigable area of the country is estimated at 3,128,000 ha hence there is still about 1,789,200 ha or 57.2% of the country's total irrigable area to be developed. The topographic maps at NIA, which were compiled at a large scale, can be a significant source of topographic information for disaster management. Most of the data are still in analogue format, but converting these data to digital format would make the data useful in GIs analyses. (7) General Characteristics ofAvailable Base Map Data Existing base map data covering the whole country are for the most part, outdated. The 1:1,500,000, 1:250,000and 1:50,000scale maps date back mostly fiom the 1950's. Effortsto update the already more than 20 years old, 1:50,000 scale maps in the 701 seriespublished by NAMRIA have been limited to Luzon. Work on the National Topographic Mapping Series which started in 1988has so far produced only 79 of the 672 sheets planned, covering approximately only 11% of the country. Figure 8.1 shows the index of existing 1:50,000 scale maps at NAMRIA. Digital versions of base maps that could be used for GIs analysis are available for the 1:250,000series. For 1:50,000 only about 10%have been digitized. (8) Local Capabilities for Topographic Mapping Table 7.1 summarizes locally available equipment and personnel to conduct topographicmapping among NAMRIA and three major private companies. Table 7.1 LocallyAvailable Equipment, Capability & Capacity forTopographicMapping, GIs and Remote Sensing Sources: NAMRIA, JICA, Certeza, GSMI, FF Cruz Two basic methods to update 1:50,000 base maps that can be considered are aerial photography and satellite-based mapping. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vu!nerability The total land area of the Philippines is approximately 300,000 sq lun. The effort to conduct aerial photography to cover the whole of the Philippines,it has been estimated,will take roughly 8.5 years assuming all six available aircraft IocalIy continuallyconduct aerial photography. Weather conditions in the Philippines permit only on the average, 21 good aerial photography flying days a year. Ideal flying conditions for aerial photography is also affected by geographic location. Mindanao is generally considered a difficult area to conduct aerialphotographydue to cloud cover.Another 12yearswould be requiredto conductdigitalmapping after aerial photographyis finished consideringcurrentlyavailableequipmentand personnel. The conduct of aerialphotography can be speeded up by usinghigh altitude aircraft.This type of aircraft isnot availablelocally.With high altitudeaircraft,it ispossibleto finishaerialphotographyin oneto two years. Local capabilities for digital mapping can also be supplemented by overseas companies to hasten the map updating process. Satellite based mapping is comparatively faster than aerial photography based mapping. Assuming satelliteimagery is availablefor the whole country,in some estimates;it will take roughly from 3 to 5years to process and cover the whole country at 1:50,000 scale consideringcurrent capacities. Aerial photography does offer the advantage of higher resolution of images compared to commercially availablesatelliteimagery. A combination ofboth methods maybe ~~tilizedto update the 1:50,000base maps of the whole country. (9) Recommendations to Update Base Map Data The 1:250,000 and 1:50,000 scalemaps can be used for indicativestudies and policy making at a national down to the provincial level. These maps can be used for studies to identify areas for further detailed investigation. At the moment, existingmaps at these scales are for the most part, outdated. Therefore there is anurgent need to update these maps.Agenciessuchas PHWOLCS, MGB and other government agenciesneed these maps as a basis for hazard and risk mapping. Map updatingis a costlyprocess sopriorityto update maps shouldbe given to specificareas depending on theirvulnerability to hazards in the areas. It would be prudentto focusattentionon updatingthe 1:50,000maps first sincethe 1:250,000base maps can be derived &omthis. For the interim, althoughthe existingmaps are quite old, contourand spot elevationdata from these maps can stillbe useful. Currently, digital data is only availableforthe 1:250,000,while only about 10%is available for the 1:50,000 maps. For the interim, the 1:50,000 could be digitized so that they could be used for further GIs and engineering analyses. Slope analyses using digital data at 1:50,000 should be done to narrow down areas for further investigation.For studyingrainfall inducedlandslides,this kind of analysisis very important. Special areas that are deemed most at risk from different types of disasters can be subject to larger scale mapping. Final Report phenomena in these areas. Depending on the terrain, 1or 2 meter contour intervals shouldbe generated. With a better understanding as to why certain areas are flooded, appropriatemeasures canbe taken to reduce hazards posed by flooding. It is recommended that the severity of disaster potential (example: problematic areas of floods, sediment and typhoon disasters) be considered as one of the factors for planning and updating the schedule of the topographic maps (example: Cagayan, Abra, Laoag and Bicol River Basins, Mindoro,Negros Occidental, Leyte, Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur). For earthquakerelated studies, especially in urban areas such as MetropolitanManila, 1:5,000mapping is appropriate. At this scale, more features such as building footprints can be distinguished. In the Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS), 1:5,000 topographic maps were used as a basis for hazard and risk mapping. Community Based Disaster Management activities for selected areas conducted as part of MMEIRS made use of these maps to identify individual structuresthat can be at risk and resources such as evacuation sites, in case of an earthquake.This kind of study shouldbe replicatedin otherurban centers in the country such as Metro Cebu and Metro Davao. 7.2.2 Aerial Photographs (1) ExistingAerial Photography Aerial photographs are the basis for producing topographic maps but they are also very useful for analyzing potential hazard areas especially for slope erosion and landslides. They can also be used for earthquake and volcano studies. Figure 8.2 shows the coverage and year prepared of the existing aerial photographs in the Philippines, owned by NAMRLA. The coverage is about one third of the country. Furthermore, as many of them were taken before 1990,there is a possibility that forest cover and land use in river basins have been changed since then. (2) Recommendationto ImproveAerial Photography Data It is recommended that the aerial photographs in conjunction with updating topographic maps be updated, taking due consideration of sediment and landslide potential areaslbasins for one of the top priority areas (for example: Southern Leyte, Surigao Norte and Sur, Mt. Mayon, Mt.Pinatubo and Camiguin). 7.2.3 Land Use 1Land CoverMaps: (1) Existing Land Uselcover Maps Two sets of Land Use/Land Cover maps are currently being distributed by NAMRIA. One was funded by the World Bank and the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and the other was sponsoredby the Japan Forest TechnicalAssociation (JAFTA). Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability The World Bank and SSC Land Cover Maps were produced using SPOT satellite images taken in 1987-1988.These maps were outputs of the project, "Mappingthe Natural Conditionsof the Philippines". P t L- Given emphasis on these maps are forests, extensive and intensive land use, and coastal areas covering approximately 300,000 krn2 of land area. Supporting statistics are also available. Topographic maps at 1:250,000scale were used as base maps The JAFTALand Use and Forest Typemaps give emphasisonthe type of forest such as old-growth, mossy, residual, sub-marginal,pine and mangrove, usage of land such as brush reproduction, coconut, plantation, grass lands, agriculture, bare/rocky and built up area. Statistics supporting classification in containkdin a book calledForest Register. These maps were the results of "WideArea Tropical Resource Survey (FY1994) which was carried out by the JAFTA. These were based on Landsat TM data of 1993 selected from image sceneswith least cloud cover. A topographic scale of 1:100,000was used. For selected provinces, updated Land Cover maps are available. The Secondary Education and Improvement Project - School Mapping Exercise (SEDP-SME) of the Department of Education produced land cover maps compiled at 1:50,000 scale, for '14 selected provinces using Spot 20 m multispectral imagery. Figure 8.3 shows an example of a land cover map compiled for Southern Leyte. The provinces covered by SEDIP-SME are: a. Ifugao, CAR b. Benguet, CAR c. Antique,RG d. Guimaras, R6 e. Agusan del Sur, CARAGA f. Surigaodel Sur, CARAGA g. Romblon, R4 h. Masbate, R5 i. Negros Oriental,R7 j. Biliran,R8 k. Leyte, R8 I. SouthernLeyte, R8 m. Zamboanga del Sur, R8 n. North Cotabato, R12 r i (2) Recommendationsto Improve Land Use / Land CoverData Le Although for selected areas of the country, 1:50,000 land use / land cover maps are available, other 6' t areas are either covered at 1:250,000 or 1:100,000 scale. For disaster management activities, updated L LandUse / Land Cover data arevery important.Higherresolution landuse and land covermapsneed to be r L -7-6- PI Final Report compiled, preferably at 1:50,000 scale for the whole country. For priority areas such as urban areas and potential hazard and high risk areas, land use maps shouldbe compiledat scalesfrom 1:5,000to 1:10,000. 7.2.4 Geological Data (1) Available Geological Maps at MGB Understanding the rock and mineral structure of an area is vital in determininghazards that exist in the area. The Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) is directly in charge of the administration and disposition of the country's mineral lands and mineralresources.The MGB has produced geological maps at 1:50,000scale limited areas of the Philippines.They are distributedin hardcopyform. Abouthalf of the maps arepublished while the otherhalf comes in the form of reproduciblewhiteprint.Figure 8.4 shows the available geological maps at scale 1:50,000 at the MGB. Geological maps at 1:250,000 are available in hardcopy format. (2) Recommendations to Improve GeologicalData It is recommended that geological maps at the 1:10,000 level be prepared for the development of citylmunicipal level hazard maps for flood and landslide.The geologicalmaps at 1:250,000 convertedto digital form would be useful for earthquakehazard mapping. 7.3 Socio-economic Data 7.3.1 Population Data Population data for the whole country is available from the National Statistics Office (NSO). These data canbe extracted from the Data Kit of Official PhilippineStatistics(DATOS),which is being distributed by NSO for a fee. DATOS is a collection of statisticsfor eachregion, province, city municipality, and barangayin the country.The data on total populationpresented in DATOS arethe officialcensus figuresfor the 1980, 1990, and the 2000 Census of Population and Housing as well as the 1995Population Census. 7.3.2 Building Inventory Data on individualbuilding countsper barangaycanbe obtainedfromNSO in the formof PublicUse File (PUF). The PUF is a text file containingraw data such as outer wall and roof material, construction year, state of repair and approximate roof area for each building included in the 2000 Census on Population and Housing. The census on housing is complete enumeration of all housing units whether occupied or vacant at the time of the census. 7.3.3 Administrative Boundaries There are four levels of administrativeboundaries in the Philippines. They are Regional,Provincial, CityIMunicipal and Barangay boundaries. Many disputes existbetweenLGUYsin the Philippinesregardingthe Natural DisasterRisk Managementin the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability exact locations of their boundaries. At the moment, there is no map that shows the definite boundaries of all LGU's. Topographic maps published by NAMRIA do show administrative boundaries but they are not generally accepted as final. I For disaster management activities, there are two main sources of boundary data that covers the whole country,which couldbe useful. One sourceis theNSO, the boundarydata canbe found in GIs formatin the Data Kit of OfficialPhilippine Statistics(DATOS),whichis being distributedby NSO for a fee. It includes boundary information &om the regional level down to the barangay level. The boundary data were digitized based on sketches,prepared by surveyenumeratorsin the fieldtherebymakingit difficulttojudge the accuracy and scaleat which the maps were prepared. The data was digitizedby NSO with technical assistanceprovided by NAMRIA. The other significant source of boundary data is DPWH. The data is also in GIs format. DPWH I believes that their administrative bo~~ndarydata were digitized from NAMRIA base mapping in the early I 1990's froin 1:250,000 series maps. DPWH has made minor modifications to municipalities and cities I boundaries.DPWH has also generated CongressionalDistrict, Provincial and Regional Boundaries based on the constituentmunicipalitiesand cities.It is believed that the CongressionalDistrict, Provincial and Regional Boundariesare correct as of January 2003 (assuming the accuracy of the municipalities and cities). There are 1606municipalities/citiesin the DPWH layers, although National Census data year 2000 indicates there may be 1609; however the remaining 3 cannot be identified from known sources. It is also believed that the MunicipalICityboundariesin the vicinity of Lake Lanao in Mindanaoarehighly inaccurate,maybe as much as 4 krnout from the National Road Network. In terms of location accuracy, DPWH boundary data is deemed more reliable compared to that of NSO. There may be cases where NSO would be more useful, such as studies and planning activities that go down to thebarangay level.NSO boundariesmaybe appropriatefor applicationsmakinguse ofNSO statistical data sincethe boundariesreflect the actualboundaries followed by survey enumeratorsin the field. 7.3.4 Recommendationsto Improve Socio-economicData For the Philippines, census, the basic data units used are regional, provincial, city/municipal boundaries and barangay boundaries. Maps reflecting a more accurate boundary of census should be made, preferably in GIs format as in the 2000 Census. The 2000 censusbasicallyused sketchesof enumerationareas prepared by the surveyors themselves which were later digitized. Consideringthe existenceof conflictsbetweenlocal governmentdistrictsin their areas ofjurisdiction, a unified map showing final LGU boundaries is difficult to achieve. For disaster management, focus is most likely better if it is accorded to the data from the National Statistics Office which uses regional, provincial, municipal/city and barangay boundaries as their basic units of census. The use of GIs by NSO in presenting Final Report census 2000 is commendable,but the accuracy in preparing these boundaries could be improved. This can be ? I done by giving additional GIs mapping capabilityto NSO. !' 7.4 Public Facilities 7.4.1 Hospital The DOH with the assistance of NAMRIA, mapped all the Regional Health Units (RHU), hospitals and niunicipal health centers throughout the Philippines as part of the Women's Health & Safe Motherhood Project. Attributes such as facilities available and personnel were also captured for each RHU, hospital, and municipal health center. 7.4.2 Public Elementary and High Schools The Department of Education (DepEd) maintains a database called Basic Education Information g System (BEIS). The BEIS contains a listing of all public elementary and high schools in the Philippines.The list is compiled and maintained by the Research and Statistics Office of the Department of Education Central Office. Attribute information of each school such as number of students,teachers and other schoolrelated data are included. It is updated yearly from information gathered from each schoolby DepEd Regional Offices. Locations of public elementary and high schools for selected provinces were plotted on 1:50,000 scalebase maps aspart of the DepEd's SecondaryEducationImprovementProject-SchoolMappingExercise (SEDIP-SME) project. Schools were assigned codes compatible with the codes used by DepED's BEIS database. This would facilitate linking of school locations with BEIS. In addition, pictures, school site development plans and other schools' documents are also available. These data are summarized in an application called "GeographicDatabase of SecondarySchools"which was developed as part of the project. 7.4.3 Recommendations to ImprovePublic Facilities Data Locations of all public elementaryand high schoolsother than those includedin SEDIP-SMEproject have not been compiled. Public elementary and high schools are often used as evacuation centers in times of disasters, therefore attribute data describing the conditions and capacities such as number of classrooms in these schools should be gathered. h some cases the school buildings themselves are vulnerable to disasters, making them unfit evacuation centers. Therefore a systematic school location and attribute information gathering effort should be promoted. Other public facilities data such as those of the fire and police stations and other key public facilities relevant to disaster management such as provincial, citylmunicipalhalls on a national scaleshouldbe collected and converted to GIs format. The locations of these facilities and their capabilities are importantresourcesto disaster management. Natural DisasterRisk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 7.5 Infrastructure 7.5.1 Woad Data r; d NationalRoad Data was collected using vehicle-mounted GPS with differentialpost-processing.It is C believed that this data is accurateto +/-lo meters.The vast majority of this data was collectedin year 2000, but the network in Regions IXand XI1 were collected in late 2002. Some gaps remain (due to impassable roads, failed bridges at the time of survey). DPWH has processes and procedures in place to maintain this data, fi C thereforeupdates will be availablein future, probably on an annual basis. t Provincial Roads were digitized from NAMIU base mapping in the early 1990's from the DPWH I 1:250,000seriesmaps.DPWH has made no attempt to reconcilethis data with the (National Road Network). It is known that some roads in this provincial layer have now been moved to National jurisdiction, and should therefore be deleted from this layer. DPWH may clean this layer in future, however it is not a high priority at present. 1 7.5.2 Bridge Data The DPWH conducted an inventory of bridges under DPWI-I control throughout the Philippines under the "Nationwide Bridge InspectionProject". This is a part of an umbrella project called "Rehabilitation and Maintenance of Bridges along Arterial Roads". Attributes of bridges such as type and dimensions of r b bridges are included in the database. 7.5.3 C Recommendationsto Improve InfrastructureData Most of the infrastructure data mentioned above has been in one form or another stored in digital form. There is now a need to compile all these data together in one coordinatesystem so GIs analyses such as overlay can be performed. Road data, other than that covered under the DPWH roads survey, designed for cover under the nationalroads shouldbe gathered. Local roads at the provincial and municipal level should be gathered.These are important inputsto disastermanagement planning and rescue efforts.Accessibility to disaster sites need to be known. Also in some cases, suchasroadsblockagesdueto earthquakes or landslide,alternateroutes need to i be determined to enable aid to reach those who need it. R 1 For the same reasons that road data needs to be improved, bridge information should also be improved. Bridge data up to the provincial and municipal level are also important for accessibility r considerations. L I I Othertransportation relatedfacilitiesdata suchmarineports and airportsshould alsobe gatheredon a 1 national scale.Theseare also importantfor accessibilityconsiderations. Capacitiesof these ports arenecessary especially for transport of relief suppliesin cases of disaster. r- L I -7-10- P i I Final Report 7.6 GeneralHazard Data 7.6.1 BSWM Bureau of Soils and Water Management (BSWM) of the Department of Agriculture is the main producer of agricultural related thematic maps in the country and the range of BWSM's map products are generated based on NAMRTA's topographic base maps of 1:50,000 and 1:250,000. They are mainly in analogue format, with a limited number in digital format. The "Philippine Land and SoilsManagementAtlas" is a major publication of the BSWM through its Agricultural Land ManagementDivision (ALMED).Preparation of the atlaswasbased and synthesized froma series of project activities namely: Land Resource EvaluationProject (LREP),Regional Land UseAssessment (RLUA), and the Crop Development and Soil ConservationFramework for Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The process covered by the resource assessments for the country took 15 years of continuous field work and consultations with local government,business institutionsand other governmentagenciesconcerned with the rational use of the land. The atlas aims to provide basic situationer and benchmark information for the estimation of agricultural development that can be pursued in the different regions and in various land, ago-climatic and economic scenarios. The atlas serves as a basic tool for the formulation of a regional frameworkplan and its integration into economic development plans. The various situation maps were presented individually to satisfy the needs of resource scientists who may wish to develop new map themes. The atlas also provides important decision maps that will assistplanners, investorsand small farmersto make sound decisionson land use as well as in their choice of crops and management systems. There are three basic kinds of maps presented in the atlas: a. Commodity Development & Soil Conservation Planning Guides; which include Rice, Corn, Coconut, Fruit Tree, Vegetable, Industrial Crops and Pasture Livestock Based SystemMaps. b. Decision Maps; which include; maps that showLand Limitations, Cropping Systemsand Hydro Ecological Conditions c. Land Factor Maps; which include maps that show Slope Classifications, Land Use and Vegetation and Erosion (1) BSWM's Slope and Erosion Maps The slope maps at BSWM are published at a scale of 1:250,000and they cover the whole country. These maps are published in the form of hardcopies. The slope classifications were prepared manually based on NAMRIA's 1:50,000 topographic maps. The slope classifications were determined by investigating the distancebetween contoursusing the terrain quantificationmethod.Table 7.2 summarizes the slope classifications by region for the whole country.The classificationsof slope used are as follows: a. Level to near level (0-3% gradient) Li -Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability b. Gently sloping to undulating (3-896 gradient) c. Undulating to rolling (8-18% gradient) r- i d. Rolling to moderately steep (18-30% gradient) wI 1 e. Steep (30-50% gradient) r- f. Very steep (>50% gradient) ii Table7.2 Distribution of Slope Classes by Region, 1991 PHILIPPINES 6,563,424 22% 2,448,678 8% 4,690,589 16% 5,164,466 17% 4,986,911 17% . 6,163,849 21% 30,017,917 100% LUZON 3,442,039 24% 1,016,269 7% 1,926,147 14% 1,882,495 13% 2,097,249 15% 3,775,293 27% 14,139,492 47% 122,138 7% 44,743 2% 111,889 6% 251,482 14% 235,492 13% 1,063,624 58% 1,829,368 6% 485,382 38% 45,105 4% 47,555 4% 212,998 17% 189,973 15% 33,006 24% 1,284,019 4% 673,866 < 2 5 % 163,464 6% 367,723 14% 406,316 15% 355,128 M% 717,261 27% 2,683,758 9% 810,555 44% 159,114 9% 234,164 13% 233,090 13% 234,577 13% 151,582 8% 1,823,082 6% 981,574 2t% 351P77 7% 819,406 17% 370,565 8% 790,586 17% 1,442,008 30% 4,756,016 16% r 368,524 21% 251,966 14% 345,410 20% 408,044 23% 291,493 17% 97,812 6% 1,763,249 6% 1 1 VI 487,379 24% 190,503 9% 324,582 16% 418,820 21% 274,024 14% 327,002 16% 2,022,310 7% C Vli 247,905 17% 114,080 8% 210,895 14% 330,401 22% 292,112 19% 304,547 20% 1,499,940 5% Vlll 404,417 19% 118,088 5% 318,852 f5% 564,487 26% 538,835 25% 211,606 10% 2,156,285 7% I 1 1 3 i IX 373,518 20% 187,190 10% 430,122 23% 497,451 27% 252,181 13% 128,048 7% 1,868,510 6% C X 437,728 15% 405,722 14% 450,901 16% 392,407 14% 483,300 17% 662,712 23% 2,832,770 XI r XI1 618,144 27% 168,778 7% 522,044 22% 385,129 17% 355,396 15% 279,829 12% 2,329,320 8% , Source :BSWM i, The erosion maps at B S W cover the whole country. These maps were based on a combination of f- field investigations,soil survey and interpretation of aerialphotographs conducted from the mid seventies U to the late eighties. Field investigation is still ongoing in selected areas. The NAMRIA 1:50,000 scale maps were used as abase for the erosionmaps and were reduced to 1:250,000for publishing. These maps U are also published in the form of hardcopies. C Final Report I=- Erosion is a critical environmental factor that is brought about by natural (rainfall intensities, flood, L earthquake, surface runoff, etc) and artificial processes (harsh activities of man such as overlogging and shifting cultivation). BSWM's erosion maps can help in soil conservationactivities. All factors being the same, erosion increases with slope gradient and slope length. Erosion is also r affected by land use and vegetation. Where the soil is left with little or no cover at all, infiltration is L reduced and runoff is increased.Table 7.3 summarizesthe distributionof erosion classesby region for the r Philippines in 1991. L The classifications used by BSWM in the erosion maps are: a. No apparent erosion (EO) d. Slight erosion (El) e. Moderate erosion (E2) f. Severe erosion (E3) r g. Unclassified erosion (EU) Table 7.3 Distribution of Erosion Classes by Region, 1991 P" i / 1 - ' - ..h(3(3AP-Ph-EN? -,. SLIGHT.? *-.*;-; -cr";----ER O S I O N C L A S S E S- ---.-"- - - x++'--Tij:T~TT5-* - ."..--'-i.I .+: - . .r.i- ,-,-.- -, m n r s g . 7 . -r- PL- " I , ' r .MODERATE, sEv~~g~g::',r-~TrU~kCfissiFIEDy RKEEAA -h "^'" EROSION ' %of - : * ,: EROSION ,%of EROSION %oft< EROSION . %of : EROSION %of (Ha.) -- %of A '' L EO . ' Total El Total 'E2 , Total ' E3 :* Total EU Total Phil Total a CAR 130,367 7% 515,825 28% 737,134 40% 413,729 23% 32,313 2% 1,829,368 6% I 514,881 40% 242,343 19% 262,226 20% 264,569 21% 0% 1,284,019 4% I1 726,022 27% 374,153 14% 1,158,953 43% 426,644 16% 7,986 0% 2,683,758 9% 111 923,250 51% 400,855 22% 323,659 18% 143,297 8% 32,021 2% 1,823,082 6% IV 1,341,043 28% 1,896,162 40% 1,134,444 24% 317,337 7% 67,030 1% 4,756,016 f6% V 445,705 25% 635,856 36% 511,197 29% 153,579 9% 16,912 1% 1,763,249 6% VISAYAS . 1,240,751 22% 1,743,632 31% 1,444,384 25% 1,126,073 20% 123,695 2% 5,678,535 19% Source:BSWM Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Phili~~inesReducing Vxlnerabilitv (2) Plans to ImproveMap Data at BSWM Themaps at BSWM areprepared mainly at scalesfrom 1:250,000 to 1:500,000.The scales used limit the resolution of the map and could only be used for regional and strategic planning of land resources. Future updates of BSWM's atlas data to a higher resolution are planned on a per project basis. This is mainly dependent on requests from LGU's for more detailed maps of their area. At the moment, most of the maps are still in analogue format. The BSWM also plans to digitize the atlas to make it usable for GIs, but this plan is hampered by lack of manpower. (3) Recommendationsto Use BSWNd Data Effectively Slope and erosion potential are important determinants of an area's susceptibility to landslide. Among BSWM's maps are slope and erosion potential maps for the whole country.Although these maps are published at 1:250,000 and were prepared manually, these data could still be used more effectively through convertingthe map databy digitizing so that it can be used for GIs analyses. Figure 8.5 shows an example of an erosion map converted to GIS format. Figure 8.6 shows a zoom up of Barangay Punta, San Fernando, SouthernLeyte, site of the December 2003 landslidewhich killed 105people and damaged 103 houses. This is an example of how BSWM erosion data can be overlaid on contour data to help assess hazards hazard. It can be seen from the map that most of the soil in Barangay Punta are classified as having a severe erosion potential. Combining this information with other physical and socio-economic factors, a risk model can be developed. It is also recommended that the contour data from existing 1:50,000maps are digitized.From this, a more accurate slope classificationmap can be generated. Figure 8.7 shows an example of a slope map for Southern Leyte. The current slope classification map produced by BSWM was donemanually. Computertechniques canbe employedto reclassify slope areas to improve accuracy.This will also openup the possibility of further analysescombining slope, erosion and other data using GIs techniques. 7.6.2 PAGASA The mandate of the PhilippineAtmospheric,Geophysicaland Astronomical ServicesAdministration (PAGASA) is to provide protection against natural calamities and utilize scientific knowledge as an effective instrument to insure the safety, well-being and economic security of all the people, and for promotion of national progress. The agency has a staff of 1200personnel and has an annual budget of P 360 million. The functions of PAGASA include the following: a. Maintaininga nationwidenetwork pertainingto observationand forecastingof weather and other climatologicalconditions affectingnational safety, welfare and economy; b. Carry out observations, collections, assessments and processing of atmospheric and allied data for the benefit of agriculture, commerce and industry; Final Report is c. Engage in studies of geophysicaland astronomicalphenomenaessentialto the safetyandwelfare of the people; d. Carry out research on the structure, development and motion of typhoons and formulate measures for their moderation; and e. Maintain egective linkageswith local and internationalscientificorganizations,and promotethe exchange of scientific information and cooperation among personnel engaged in atmospheric, geophysical and astronomical studies. Some of the most destructiveweather events are short-lived, local disturbances.Until now, PAGASA has focused on slowly changing, large scale features of the atmosphere. This is because of the limits of operational systems used by the agency to monitor the atmosphere. In addition, PAGASAforecastershave had onlyrudimentary computer systemsto assimilate,analyze and communicate complex weather in near real-time. PAGASAhas yet to provide warning of severe weather and flash flood that is satisfactory to the general public. At times, PAGASA had been able to react to events providing warnings of severe weather or flash floods after detecting these events, or after reports of actual occurrences. It has been difficult for PAGASA forecasters to predict small-scale violent weather, resulting in short lead times for warnings. Unfortunately, problems besetting PAGASA prevent it from doing its mandated functions more effectively. These problems are mainly fi-om lack of updated equipment and training of personnel. In 1997, PAGASAcame up with a 6year modernizationprogrambut none of the objectiveshave been implemented yet. (1) PAGASA's 6 Year Modernization Program Basically, PAGASA's 6 year program targets the followingpoints: a. Modernization of the physical resources and operational techniques through the acquisition of state-of-the-art instruments, equipment and facilities, with emphasis on weather and flood monitoring and warning system and agro-meteorological observation system to strengthen services for agriculture. b. Intensification of human resources development to keep pace with rapid scientific and technological advances. c. Upgrading of research and development capability through a more rationalized and totally integrated approach and identified activities,with focus on improvementof operations,as well as the development of specialized services for cost-recovery. d. Establishment of regional service centersin strategic growth areas to broaden the agency's bases for service delivery to the countryside. The agency's 6 year modernizationprogramprincipally calls for are-tooling of PAGASAwith modern equipment and facilities. Targeted to be acquired are advanced observational and surveillancesystemsfor Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability n U meteorological and hydrological elements, satellite-basedtelecommunicationsnetwork, super-computers for data processing, analyses, and forecasting, computer-based workstations for generating increased f- i I t; volume of more detailed information.Weather surveillanceradars capable of monitoring wind fields and cloud formation in three dimensions will enable PAGASA to advance its operational activity to "now casting". The program also includeshuman resource development that emphasizes on professional education and training.It also calls for the establishmentof iive regional centersin five areas to improve delivery of servicesto the countryside. The total estimatedcost of the program in 1997is 2.0 billion pesos. (2) Focus of Improvements at PAGASA For disastermanagement activities, focus should be given to rainfall data collection capabilities. At the moment, rainfall data is collected in 6 hour intervals. This should be improved to at least 1 hour intervals. In heay rainfall areas, more weather forecastingsystems using weather surveillanceradar shouldbe installed. Only four areas have weather su~~eillanceradar systemsinstalled, they are Appari, Baler, Virac and Guiuan.With the exceptionof the radar in Baler, all these radarsbelong to the old generationof radars (Circa 60' s and early70's). Of these fourradar systems, onlythree areworking, Guiuanis not orperational. There is no coverage for Mindanao. Other heavy rainfall areas should be considered for installation. Adopting these improvements is very important to disaster management. Figure 8.8 shows the existing Weather SurveillanceRadar of PAGASA. 7.6.3 Office of Civil Defense (OCD) I (1) GISin QCD fi La The Office of Civil Defense is the main coordinatingagency for disaster management on a national C scale. GIs at the agency started around 1998with the purchase of ESRI GIs software. At the moment maintenance of GIs is under the charge of the Information TechnologiesUnit (ITU), which has a staff of three. C Digital data relevant for disaster management consists of databases mostly residing in the agency's r Emergency Management Information System (EMIS). EMIS consists of several databases such as the Response Groups Database which catalogues government and private emergency response units. This L database is the most used with about 1000 listed units. Another database is the Disaster Monitoring - t Database used to track disasterincidents.Some of the databasesin EMIS arenow availableonlinethrough t OCD's website on a test basis. Final Report The OCD does not have much by way of digital maps to cover the whole country. In 2000, several GIs datasets were installed at OCD aspart of a contractwith a private company,most of the data though in conceiltrated in the Metropolitan Manila and is based on JICA's circa 80's base maps. To keep track of operations and incidents outside Metro Manila, NS07sDATOS digital maps are used. As mentioned in another section of this report, these are basically sketches of regional down to barangay boundaries prepared by field personnel involved in the 2000 census. (2) Recommendations to improve data in OCD Priority should be given to building GIs databases in OCD. This includes integrating data already residing in OCD. As a national agency coordinating operations throughout the country, OCD should be equipped with better base maps preferably at 1:50,000 scale showing more detail such as roads and river features.For somekey areas, suchas MetropolitanManila, a scaleof 1:5,000to 1:10,000isrecommended. Other datarelevant to disastermanagement suchaspublic facilitieson a national scaleshouldbe installed. The databases included in EMIS at the moment are not integrated yet with GIs. Adding locational information to these databases will make the data more useful for disaster management. Response units together with countrywide disaster coordinating councils can be integrated with GIs maps to show the distribution of resources for disaster management. Disaster events should be catalogued and integrated with the GIs. 7.7 General Recommendation for Data Improvement for Disaster management . GIs analysis is a vely powerful tool to analyze the different physical, social and economic factors that affect disaster management. Therefore there is a need to unify these varied types of information. A common or compatible standard digital format such as AutoCAD or Arcview should be adopted. Also, common coordinate systems should be used. PRS 92 is the recommended system to store data. There is also a need to gather other data that come from private sector sources. On a national scale, lifeline data such as power, water and telecommunicationsutility facilities data should alsobe gathered. Based on prevlous experiences collecting data, these data are sometimes difficult to collect. Utility data especially those coming from the private sector are difficult to collect. The telecommunications industry in the Philippines is a very competitive field, telecom companiesare usually hesitant to share data. Lifeline facilities can themselves be damaged during disasters; thereforeknowing where these facilities are and Icnowing which facilities are vulnerable io damage are very important to disastermitigation activities. Chapter 8. Survey on Disaster Risk Management in the DCCs C Final Report CHAPTER 8. SURVEYON DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTIN THE DCCS 8.1 Purpose of the Survey The PDCCs and some of the CDCCs throughout the nation were surveyed to better understand their capabilities and extent of efforts, including the available resources and budgetary allocations for disaster management. The questionnaire was designed to understand the experience of targeted regions on the following. a. Past disasters, the amount and types of damage, and its cause b. Type of effort spent on disaster damage recovery c. Changes in disaster management systemsbefore and after the experience d. Type of effort taken for mitigation, emergency response, evacuation, and recovery e. Available institutional and organizationalstructures 8.2 Methodology Two types of approaches were taken for this survey. The first approach is an in-depth direct qualitative survey interview of key informants. Surveyors visited the disaster affected provinces or cities to interview disaster action officers or officer equivalentin the position. A total of 12sample areas were selected for this type of survey, based on the historical disaster experiences. Table 8.1 shows the type of disaster and areas selected. The survey was conducted in the last two weeks ofApril 2004. Table 8.1 Area Selected for Key Informant Survey by Disaster Type p p e of Disaster Selected PDCC or CDCC Cagayan, Camarines Sur, Capiz, Mindoro Occidental, Southern Flooding1Landslide Leyte Earthquake Baguio, Antique, Mindoro Oriental Volcano Eruptions Albay, Pampanga, Zambales, Batangas t. The other approach taken is a qualitative survey conducted through the distribution of the questionnaire to respondents. The questionnaire was distributed to and collected from all 80 PDCCs through $" L the OCD. L. 8.3 Responses r There are a total of 29 qualifying results that are assessed here: 1) 12 results coming from selected L+ sample areas; and 2) 17fromPDCCs. The responserate was 36%. Table 8.2 showsthe areaprofile of collected responses. C Natural DisasterRisk Management in the Philippines ReducingVdnerability Table 8.2 Area Profile of CollectedResponses Cabanatuan Y , Baguio(CDCC) Yes N.A. a . 1990/7/16,. Y Pampanga . :' , Yes , N.A. . +Yes > * y . . Zambales 2 .' . .,:Yes -N.A. -"-. @:::. f, \ , r Yes h' "' Batangas , . Yes- . Yes ' N.A. , *' = N Que7on Yes Yes No Source: Survey on Disaster Risk Management in the PDCCfCDCC, 2004, the World Bank 1 8.4 Assessment of PDCC Survey 1 8.4.1 Characteristicsof the Disasters 1 a. Out of the 29 answers, 25 provinces answered that they had been affected by flood-related b disasters (8 by earthquakeand 6 by volcanoes). Disastersrelated to water are the most common. n b. Out of the water-related disasters,floods,flash floods,and landslides are the predominanttype of &! disastersthat affected the provinces. Damages due to such disasters were caused by local heavy h? rain, extreme typhoon, tropical depression, and insufficient discharge of river. Major damages L were to agriculture, properties, infrastructure/lifelines, and people. C Final Report rn i. c. Of the provinces that experienced earthquakes, damages were mostly to properties (buildings, lifelines). Earthquakes induced many landslides, and ground cracks were seen in many places. t"" 1 d. Of the provinces that experienced volcanic disasters, the damages were caused by pyroclastic I, flow, lava flow, volcanic gas, and volcanic ash (direct cause) and lahar. Damageswere mainly to r buildings, agriculture,people and fisheries. 8.4.2 Problems and Directions for Disaster Risk Management r a. All PDCCs responded that they had taken some kind of preparatory measures. Disaster If management activities consisted mostly of the training of key personnel and drills in the r community. However, these are difficult to execute on a regular basis due to the budget k-, constraints and lack of resources that are needed in the activities. b. The PDCCs considered that there was still a need for training of key personnel and for structural measures to be put into place. However, these could not progress, due to the budget constraints. c. The PDCC answered that the regular communication/ information sharing between PDCC, MDCC and BDCC was done through telephone/ cell phone, radio, or meeting/discussionheld quarterly or monthly. r d. Most of the PDCCs had some mitigation measures (93% answered yes). Major measures taken C, were: 1)information campaigns;2) building and improvementof structures;and 3) afforestation. r However, lack of funding is the largest constraint for the successful adoption of these measures. L Sometimes, the negative attitude of people made adoption difficult. The PDCC consideredthat: r- 1) further improving of facilities/ structures; 2) allocating funds; and 3) organizing response L team1institution, were necessary actions to take up. e. For evacuation, PDCC, MDCC, or BDCCs make the decision on the timingto evacuate. In some areas, local officers make this decision as well. In most of the cases, evacuationwas effective; however in some cases the negative attitude of people and lack of evacuation centers made the process difficult. Improving evacuation centers and facilities is the highest concern for the k* PDCC. i"" .f. For the emergency response, approximately 80% of the PDCC answered that there were constraints; the most important being the lack of equipment for emergency response, inadequate information, and the negative attitude of the people.Therefore, the PDCCs consideredequipment procurement and training of the personnel are most important. g. For effectiverehabilitation, approximately60%respondedthere were constraints,whichcould be I"". mitigated through: 1)access to additional funding allocations; and 2) increased suppliesneeded for hazard management. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 8.4.3 Data and HazardMappingRequirements for Disaster Risk Management a. Approximately 70% of the PDCCs responded that they had created some kind of hazard map, because those commonly available are not accurate. b. Almost all respondents answered that they had identified evacuation places and routes. People also h e w the location and routes through dissemination of maps, etc. However, some of the PDCCs considered that the evacuation center was inadequate in its function, and the route was sometimesbloclted and not passable. 8.4.4 Opinions and Suggestions for DisasterRisk Management a. Many of the PDCCs considered a "Specific PermanentUnit" for continuousdisastermanagement, essential. This should be set up with permanent trained personnel and with a regular allocated budget. The current system is not permanent and has a large influence owing to the change of administration. b. Lack of funds for continuous activities is a large constraint for the PDCCs. Many of them considered it effective if the 5% calamity fund is available for preparedness and mitigation activities. c. ~r'iinin~and drills of the PDCC members, LGU officials and people in the community for disaster management are considered very important for ensuring precision and spontaneity in responding to emergencies. 8.4.5 OtherIssues Assessments from the Key Informant Survey a. Generally, the PDCC is not very active. However, those provinces that continually suffer Erom disastersor have suffered large damage in the past have a great concern for disastermanagement activities. b. Active PDCCs are willing to integrate further information (such as the MGB hazard maps) to their plans, and eager to receive more informationfromrelevant agencies. c. For disaster information, the PDCC is generally very much dependent on PAGASA (or central agencies), and they put in a fairly limited effort. Some of the PDCCs also understand that the informationgiven is not accuratefor their area. 8.5 Conclusion a. In the Philippines, water-related disasters are most common. Of these, flood, flash flood, and landslides are predominant. These are caused by local heavy rain, extreme typhoons, tropical depressions,and insufficientriver discharges. Priorityneeds to be put into reducing vulnerability to water-related disastersfor DCCs. C Final Report C b. Many DCCs have been trying to put effortsfor disastermanagement system development, for all e stages of preparedness, mitigation, emergency response, and rehabilitation. Also, regular communication within and inter DCCs are under activation. However, lack of funds and human resources make it difficult to carry out continuous and in-depth activity, and as a result, their I- activities are found not to be very effective. B, c. There is aproblem of insufficientcommunicationsystemsbetween PDCCs, MDCCs and BDCCs, C which is a key constraint for information gathering on disaster areas before, during and after disasters. This is even clearer for remote areas, making it difficult to conduct early evacuation r and response. It is necessary to consider improvement of communication systems between the L. DCCs. d. The DCCs are generally very much dependent on central agencies, for example, on information P" I I distribution. Yet, the information of central agencies is not accurate for all of them. i L, Strengthening of the information systems or the disaster management system of the central C government agencies is the priority issue to assistthe DCC. At the same time, the DCCs need to themselves put effort for effectivedisastermanagement activities. r=- e. Many of the DCCs hope to own "Specific PermanentUnit7'for disastermanagement, such as the I- DCC of Albay (Bicol Region) which has created such a unit through legislative action, has allocated its own budget and trained personnel, and is continuously working on disaster risk i- management. Creating a permanent unit for disaster management through legislative action is L, one of the important strategiesto consider. C f. Training, drills and educationfor the DCC members, LGU officialsand people in the community are highly expected by the DCC. Training and drills on water-related disaster management are r recommended to be prioritized. L* Chapter 9. Summary of Findings and Recommendations , b., Final Report t CHAPTER 9. SUMMARYOFFINDINGSAND RECOMMENDATIONS r 9-1 Introduction i bbd Based on an analysis and synthesis of information available from this follow-on study the findings P-Q and recommendations are summarized below. First, mechanisms of disasters including recommended directions for risk management are presented in detail, for each hazard. This is followed by recommended I- directions in four areas: 1) strengthening data networks, 2) preparing hazard maps, 3) developingrisk models L< and 4) improving disaster management capacity. Finally, all the key recommendations are highlighted under r the section on overall recommendations. 9.2 Mechanisms of Disasters and DirectionsforRisk Management 9.2.1 Flood, Sediment and Typhoon (1) Based on an analysis of historical flood, sediment and typhoon damages, the mechanism of these disasters is found to be a manifestation of one or more of the following: 1) insufficient discharge capacity of rivers and weak resistance of slopes against erosion; 2) insufficient mitigation measures against floods and sediment disasters including landslide; 3) insufficient guidance to people for early evacuation; 4) insufficient evacuationnetworks in wider areas; 5) access road problems; and 6) insufficientrescue equipment. (2) Conditions of flood, sediment and typhoon disasters will be influenced by the capacity of disaster management. Mitigation measures composed of structuril measures (river improvement etc.) and non-structural measures (flood forecasting and warning systems, and reforestation etc.) are necessary to be taken up in a well-balanced and integrated approach. However, current disastermanagement is mainly concentratedon emergencyresponsein a very ad hoc manner, and not so much focused on mitigation and preparedness. (3) Although floods, sediment and typhoon disastershappen all over the country,eightparticularly problematic areas in terms of affected persons or property damage (total or per-capita) are identified: 1) Northeastern Luzon including Cagayan River Basin; 2) Northwestern Luzon including Laoag and Abra River Basins; 3) Central Luzon including Agno, Pampanga, and the river basins around Mt.Pinatubo; 4) Metro Manila includingPasig-LagunaBay River Basin; 5) Bicol and surrounding areas including Bicol River Basin; 6) Southern Luzon and Eastern Mindoro; 7) South and Northeastern Panay and Western Negros including Panay, Jalaur and Ilog-Hilabangan River Basins, and 8) Leyte and NortheasternMindanao. (4) Although the proportion of storm surge damage disasters seems to be small in the country, they cause destructive damages to poor coastal villages that depend on fishery. Due to the difficulty of accessing the damagedareas,the damage conditionsby storm surgehave not been made clear -9-1- Natural Disaster Risk Management in thePhilippines Reducing Vulnerability until now. It is recommended to investigatethe storm surgephenomenon and its damages from now on. (5) Directions for improving floods, sediment and typhoon disaster risk management are as follows: a. Provide structural mitigation measures for substantial flood and sedimeflt control. It is advisable to consider the above high priority problematic areas for implementation of structuralmeasures. b. Provide non-structural measures such as: 1) reforestation to recover and enhance natural storage and resistance against rainfall runoff and slope erosion; 2) strengtheningof rainfall and water level observation networks to capture spatial variability in rainfall and floods more accurately,and provide real-timeinformationto DCCs for warning; and 3)preparation of hazard maps to control land use including housing in the hazard prone areas. c. Promote early evacuation by strengthening evacuation centers, improving communication networks of the PDCC-MDCCs (CDCCs)-BDCCs, and educatingpeople. I ~ d. Establish wider evacuation networks as supporting systems by surroundingbarangays and municipalitiesfor the damagedbarangays and municipalities. I ~ e. Improve access roads and acquire alternativeaccesses to and from damaged sites. ~ f. Strengthen rescue activities(communication, facilities and equipment). g. Improve disaster management capacity for floods, sediment and typhoon disasters. Strengtheningcoordination includingfunding arrangements among concerned agencies for mitigationandpreparednessisrecommended for well-balancedand integrated approachfor enhancingthe safety of flood plains and coastal zones. I h. FormulateMaster Plans for the disasterrisk management basin by basin. 9.2.2 Earthquake (1) Throughoutthe 400 years of recordedearthquakehistory, occurrenceof destructiveearthquakes defined as thosethatrenderedthe buildingsunfit for use, averaged approximatelyonce in every seven years by availableinformation. (2) Active faults in the Philippines are distributed everywhere such that it is geo-technically difficult to define areas safe from earthquake occurrence. Other risks can be found in the socio-economic factors; areas with rapid population growth, high population density, and urban-structural vulnerability. Areas with high economic development, such as the area with high GRDP, will have a large damage impact if a disaster occurs. These areas can be stated as having a high risk potential. (3) Based on several discussions with the key personnel in PHIVOLCS, the budget constraints on I procuring basic equipment and funding hazard and risk evaluation activities is found to be the I obstacle for sustainabledisaster management. For example, the number of monitoring stations Final Reuort and systems are small comparedto Japan and Taiwan. Seismographsneed is high and must be addressed,particularly for strongmotion databasesfor the metropolitanareas so as to obtain the !- necessary basic data that will contributeto disastermanagement activities. L (4) Based on the analysis of historical impacts of earthquakes,there are four types of damages that i- may cause large casualties and economiclosses: L a. Building damages by ground shaking. This type of damagehas a high frequent occurrence r possibility -and when and if it does occur, causes large casualties. b. Liquefaction that causes local destructionwith high casualtiesmay occur. c. Tsunamis have less frequent occurrence possibility, but if they do occur, cause the largest causalities. d. Fire may spread depending on the condition of urban infrastructure. The casualtieswill be large if fire spreads. (5) Following are the directions for improving earthquakedisasterrisk management: a. Study the methodologies for strengtheninglretrofitting four dominant building types distributed in the Philippines and implement the recommended measures. Area development in the populated area by private fund, and heavily populated area by public fund is another strategyto prevent building collapse. b. Develop hazard maps on tsunami, liquefaction and earthquake-inducedlandslide. These maps play an important role for public awareness and earthquake disaster management. Development of liquefaction potential maps is important to avoid further property development in the vulnerable area. Tsunami and earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps are also important for disastermanagement, land use control, etc. c. Fire break activities such as introduction of fireproof district through re-development or building development will have most effective result to reduce damage from fire spread. However, community empowerment of rescue operation and awareness on fire prevention will be effective in terms of practicability. d. Strengthen infrastructure, especiallythose that play a vital role during emergencyresponse. This can be achieved by securing the emergency road network and important public facilities such as hospitals and buildings that play a role as disaster management operation centers. e. Educate the public and build capacity on disasters such as understanding the effect of tsunami, ground shaking, fire spread, liquefaction, and aftershocks to mitigate the damage and losses. f. Strengthen monitoring systems for earthquake and tsunamis by introducing networked stations. Early warning and information dissemination systems, especially on tsunamis is vital for reducing the catastrophicimpacts. -9-3- C Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability g. Conduct more research on locating the active faults (nation-wide) and evaluation of fault activitieslocatednear the metropolitad large cities. (6) Areas with large populations and assets such as: I) Greater Metropolitan Manila; 2) Metropolitan Cebu; and 3) Davao are the potentialpriority areas to focus on. P 9.2.3 Volcanic Eruption (1) According to the available data, there are 22 active and 27 potentially active volcanoes in the Philippines. Among these active volcanoes, six very active volcanoes are identified such as Pinatubo, Taal, Mayon, Bulusan, Canlaon and Hibok-Hibok. Pinatubo, Taal, Mayon and Hibok-Hibok volcanoeswhich have a history of very violent eruptions. (2) Volcanic disasters will cause direct and indirect disasters. Direct disasters are caused by lava flow, ash fall, pyroclastic flow, base surge and gas ejection. Indirect disasters are caused by mudflow called lahar due to heavy rainfall. In these volcanic eruptions, lava flow, pyroclastic flow, base surge and gas ejection affect the nearby areas of the volcano location. However, ash fall will affect a much wider area, more than 100lan radius, depending on wind direction and velocity. Lahar will basically flow along the main river channels. Lahar will bury the river channelsand cause flooding,especiallyin the rainy seasonor during typhoonsaccompaniedby heavy rainfall. Lahar disasterslast a very long time after big eruptions. (3) Each volcano has its own characteristics of eruption. Eruption type and interval, period of activity and magnitude of eruption are different from each volcano. These characteristics of volcanoes should be clarified by detailed geologica!, geomorphological, geophysical and geo-chemical researches. Through the accumulation of scientific data and knowledge, future volcanic activity can be forecasted more accurately. Research should cover the several potentially active volcanoes which are located close to large urban areas. (4) Existing monitoring systems of volcanoes need to cover both active and important potentially active volcanoes. (5) In order to prepare a volcanic disaster management plan, it is essential to understand the potential hazard area by volcanic eruptions. Hazard mapping for the volcanic area is the first step. PHNOLCS has already compiled Hazard Maps for 6 active volcanoes; however, resolution of the map needs to be improved by large scaledbase maps for accuratehazard maps enablingdetailed disastermanagement planning and risk analysis. (6) Basic materials such as aerialphotography and large scaletopographicmaps, satellite imagery, existing land use map, infrastructure and demographic data for volcanic area is mandatory to supportthe research work and disastermanagement planning for the volcanic area. (7) Regional development plans for the volcanic area should be prepared together with disaster management planning to raise the level of living standards.Studiesof the best utilization of the -9-4- Final Report volcanic resources such as tourism development including educational and environmental aspects shouldbe conducted.Infrastructue developmentsuchas improvement ofroad networks and social facilities should also be planned. (8) High priority areas to focus on areTaal and Mayon from the aspect of possible damage. 9.3 Directions for StrengtheningData Networks 9.3.1 TopographicMaps andAerial Photographs (1) As there are many old topographic maps of NAMRIA with scale 1:50,000 in the country, it is recommended to update the topographic maps to a larger scale, preferably 1:5,000 or 1:10,000 taking into account severe disaster (damage) prone areas as first priority. (2) It is necessary to increase coverage of aerial photographs and update old ones by considering severe disaster prone areas especially sediment and landslide potential areas. Aerial photographs on highly urbanized areas shall be put in priority to develop existing land use conditions. 9.3.2 Rainfall and Water Level ObservationNetworks (1) The current number of rainfall stationsand water level gaugingstationsis too small to correctly catch the phenomenon of heavy rainfall and flood water in river basins. In order to catch this phenomenon correctly, it is recommended to increase the number of rainfall stations and water level gauging stations. (2) Although real-time data of heavy rainfall and flood water level before and'during disasters are mandatory for deciding early evacuation actions by LGUs and DCCs, these real-time data are generally are not available.Therefore,it is recommendedto conductobservationof rainfall and water level by LGUs in cooperationwith PAGASA (forrainfall) and DPWH (for water level). 9.3.3 Seismological and Volcanological MonitoringNetworks (1) The number of seismological and volcanological monitoring stations is not adequate to obtain basic accurate data. It is recommended to add at least 100 seismologicalstations to be evenly distributed across the country.Additional volcanologicalmonitoring stations are recommended to be installed especially in the area of active andlor potentially active volcanoes. (2) Detailed volcanic surveys of 16 active volcanoes besides the six very active volcanoes are the top priority. Potentially active volcanoes need to be evaluated for the possibility of future eruptions. For thosejudged active, at least one set of monitoringequipmentis requiredto check on their volcanic activity. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability 9.3.4 jtiistoricalEvent Information (1) Past disasterrecords are very useful for~nderstandingthe characteristicsof disasters, especially when the variety of new data cannot be obtained by equipment located throughout the nation, much depends on past records. (2) Unfortunately data and information on disasters are scattered and collected by various organizations at different levels. These data are not gathered, collated and documented in a proper manner for future reference. It is therefore recommended to implement as soon as possible data and information management on disasters in the central office of OCD, and generatewhat are called Event Reports. (3) Data on hazard, impact, cause and effect relationships, experiences and learning are very important. Hazard data includes observed or reported information on intensity, extent and duration of causal parameters like flood depth, wind velocity, etc. Disaster effects include casualties,property damage, content damage, business interruption, etc. (4) Event reports should also be generated for future disasters in a much more planned and organizedmanner. Damage reconnaissance surveys should be undertaken by trained personnel soon after a disaster strikes and data on various aspects should be captured directly from the field. Directions for Preparing Hazard Maps 9.4.1 Floods, Sediment including Landslide Disasters (1) Hazard maps are necessary for managing land use including the control of housing in hazard prone areas -be it floods, sedimentandlor landslides.Hazard maps of floods include a potential inundation area, maximum inundation depth, evacuationplaces and evacuation routes. Hazard maps of sediment / landslide include potential areas of landslide, deposition of unstable sediment, sedimentfloodingpotential area with depth, evacuationplaces and evacuationroutes. (2) It is recommended to prepare hazard maps based on NAMRIA's topographic maps (1150,000or 1/10,000 scales), questionnaire survey on floods, sediment and landslide disasters, site reconnaissance, analysisby experts of flood, sediment and geology, and simulation (mainly for floods if necessary). 9.4.2 Earthquake Disasters (1) For hazard map developmentfor earthquakes,two types of maps are recommended. The first is the seismic hazard map for the whole country defined as a physical hazard map excluding potential damages. Examples are earthquake ground motion (PGA, MMI) and fire, following the earthquake. The second is the seismic micro-zonation map at scale 1:10,000 or larger for Final Report use in the highly urbanized areas like metro Manila. These maps consider local site conditions like soil and, landslide and liquefactionpotential to modify the macro map. 9.4.3 VolcanicDisasters (1) Volcanic hazard maps for the six very active volcanoes have been compiled by PHIVOLCS. These hazard maps should cover other active volcanoes such as Mt. Parker. Basic scale of hazard maps should be improved especially for very active volcanoes to have more accurate information of volcanic disasters. (2) In total, 27 potentially active volcanoes are distributed in the Philippines. Detailed volcanic surveys should be conducted on these potentially active volcanoes to clarify the future possibility of eruptions. Based on the findings of the detailed survey, hazard maps should also be prepared on these volcanoes accordingto priority. 9.5 Directions for Developing CatastrophicRisk Models 9.5.1 Model for Floods and SedimentRisks 1) The existing loss estimation on floods, sediment and typhoon disasters are conducted: a) during orjust after the disasters; orb) through separate studies on a certain flood or sediment control projects. This is the same method as the River Basin Model described. The loss estimation during orjust after disasters is conductedby concerned agencies such as DPWH, DA, DOHand LGUs through rough surveysand damage estimation. As the area-wise inventory data of assets is normally not available and time limitation for the survey and estimation, accuracy of the loss estimation of a) is rather low. Loss estimation through separate studies on a certain flood and sediment control projects is conducted by international or local consultants. Risk models for floods are composed of a River Basin model and a Regional model. As the unit of floods isriver basin, the River BasinModel is the basic model, andpreferably shown on 1:50,000 or 1:10,000 topographic maps. The River Basin Model is developedbased on flood surveys of recent major floods, and hydrological and hydraulic simulation. It is composed of physical models including the flooding area, maximum flood depth and duration of floods. In addition to the River Basin Model, Economic/Financial model for estimating losses can be developed. 3) To know the effectsof floodsin the region and country,RegionalModels formonetary damage will be developedto estimateregional damages by floods. Regional Models can be developed by summing up the River Basin Models in a region, or basing it on historical provincial and Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability regional damagereports of DCCs. However, the latter model is recommended for provisional applicationdue to insufficientdata of eachriver basin in a region. 4) As sediment / landslide disasters happen in more limited areas than floods, the River Basin Model will be the basis for developingrisk model. 5 ) In order to increase accuracy of the risk models for floods or sediment including landslides, I improvement of topographic maps and landuse maps, strengthening of meteo-hydrological observationnetworks and improvement of an assets database must necessarily be conducted I from now on. I 9.5.2 Model for EarthquakeRish I ~ (1) Risk modeling for econoinic and financial risks and for the development of risk maps, preferably at scales of 1:50,000or larger is recommended. (2) The risks to population and physical assets need to be modeled. The physical assets at risk are buildings and public infrastructure. (3) Metro Manila requires a more detailed and micro level assessment of risks due to the high exposureand economic value concentration. 9.5.3 Model for Volcanic Risks (1) For the rislc modeling of volcanic hazard, it is essentialto understand the potential hazard area based on the collectionof scientificdata on volcanic characteristicsof eruptions.Based on the geological data, type of eruptions, magnitude and affected area can be assumed. Hazard maps shouldbe prepared as the first step to identify the potential danger area around the volcano. (2) For risk analysis of volcanic hazard, existing socio-economic, infrastructure and population data should be mapped at a detailed scale. These data should be combined with the hazard map and regional hazard risk should be evaluated in terms of damage area, type of assets and cost. (3) Volcanic disaster management plans, incorporatingboth structuraland non-structural measures should be prepared based on these findings. 9.6 Directionsfor ImprovingDisaster Management Capacity (1) Development of a disaster management information system (DMIS) is the first step to improving existing disaster management capacity of concerned agencies. Accurate and timely informationon disastermanagement shouldbe collected and disseminatedthrough the national agency to local municipality. Existing data collection and dissemination system of NDCC should be improved through introduction of new databases, software and information technologies,equipment and human resources development. (2) The world is developinginto being an informationand knowledge society-especiallywith the emphasis on Information Technology and transparent e-governance. The need for sharing of Final Report data today is unprecedented.Amongst the variety of datasets that would be involved, spatial (or map) information will be major "content". These spatial information sets are vital to make sound decisions at the local, regional and national level planning, implementation of action plans, infrastructure development, disaster management support, and business development. Natural resource management, flood mitigation, environmental restoration, land use assessments and disaster recovery are a few examples of areas in which decision-makers are benefiting from spatial information. Spatially referenced data and information on a wider variety of topics or themes (e.g., population, land use, economic transactions, hydrology, agriculture, climate, soils) arebeing produced, stored,transferred,manipulated and analyzed in digital form. With the availabilityof satellite-basedremote sensing data and the organizationof spatial databases around a Geographical Information System (GIs), combinedwith the Global Positioning System (GPS),theprocess of semanticspatialinformationsystemshasnow become a reality. Using GIs technology, users are now able to process maps -both individually and along with tabular data and "crunch" them together to provide a new perception - the spatial visualization of information. In this context, the establishment of National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) would be the right direction for the country. The NSDI must aim to promote and establishinfrastructureat the national level for the availabilityof organized spatial (and non-spatial) data and multi level information networking to contribute to local, national and global needs of sustainable development,economic growth and socialprogress, (3) Evaluation of disaster data and information needs to be supported by capacity building. Training of the authorities/officialsinvolved in disastermanagement is very importantto make sure they make informed decisions. Surveyresults of the PDCCs indicated that many consider the training of the disaster managementpersonnel to be very important, and are willing to have such training. Disaster managementtraining for MDCCs and BDCCs should also be promoted because these personnel are the key in local disaster management. Preparation of a basic training kit in disaster management for MDCCs and BDCCs should be undertaken. National research agencies related to natural disasters such as Universities, PHIVOLCS and PAGASA should support this aspect of disastermanagement. (4) Communitybased disaster management shouldbe promoted. According to the past disastersin the world, communitypeople have to surviveby themselves for at least 72 hours. Therefore,it is important to raise people's awareness on disaster management through community activity, school education and training. (5) In order to develop a national framework plan for integrated disaster risk management as recommended in the initial study the following feasibility studies are recommended. a. Emergency communicationand early warning systems b. Information Technologyincluding DMIS and NSDI F L Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability ?, I i I b c. Risk management including risk transfer and insurance d. Seismic microzonation e. Vulnerability analysisand risk assessment I f. Damage and loss estimationmethodology FI g. Review of building codes 'L h. Institutionalsetup including legal aspects n I 9.7 OverallRecommendationsfor ImprovingDisaster Risk Management I 1. Strengthen data observation, collectionand dissemination networks, and standardmitigationpractices for eachhazard. 2. Establisha Disaster Management Information System (DMIS) to collect and disseminateinformation ri *d includingwarningsto all stakeholders. I 3. EstablishNational SpatialData Infkastructure (NSDI) to collect,storeand share organizedspatial (and r" I 1 L non-spatial) data. 4. Preparehazard maps of varying scales forplanningand mitigation.Micro zoning, especiallyin case of Tc^i earthquakes, needs to be undertaken on priority in urban concentrationslike MMR. L 5. Develop catastrophe risk modeIs to forecast losses from future potential disasters and prepare risk maps of various scales. 6. Undertake feasibilitystudies on various aspects of disaster management to develop and implement an integrated disasterrisk managementplan. Figures Final Report Figure 1.1 Political Regions and Provinces of the Philippines F-1-1 Final Report Figure 1.2 Per Capita Income by Provinces in 2000 F-1-2 Final Report Figure 1.3 Poverty Incidences by Provinces in 2000 F-1-3 Final Report Floods and Earth- Volcanic Sediment quake Eruptions Disaster Disaster Disaster Step 1: Understanding of Basic Conditions and Disaster Mechanisms 1) Basic data collection (Baseline data, past disaster histories, existing conditions) 2) Selection of sample areas 3) Understanding basic disaster mechanism Step 2: Primary Evaluation on Safety Degrees and Direction of Risk Management Improvement 1) Primary evaluation on safety degrees 2) Presentation of directions for improving risk management Step 3: Gap Analysis and Recommendations 2: Direction and 3. Requirements for 1: Data Requirement for recommendation on risk hazard mapping Database Development modeling development development Figure 1.4 General Flow of the Study F-1-4 Final Report CLARIFYINGCONDITIONS AND MECHANISMOFFLOODS AND SEDIMENT DISASTERS BASELINEDATA RECORD OFFLOODS AND EXISTINGFLOOD AND - Topography, geology, SEDIMENT DISASTERS SEDIMENT CONTROL / meteo-hydrology, socio- INCLUDINGTYPHOON MITIGATION INCLUDING economy, land use, assets DISASTERS TYPHOON DISASTERS distribution, basin - Distribution and conditions of - Conditions of existing conservation, historical floods and sediment structural and non- environment and others. disasters with their magnitude structural measures for in the country including flood and sediment control typhoon disasters. / mitigation including pre and post disasters actions. PROBLEMATIC RIVER BASINS/AREAS - In terms of floods and sediment disasters including typhoon disasters. MECHANISMOFFLOODS AND SEDIMENT DISASTERS INCLUDINGTYPHOON DISASTERS - Physical reason of causing floods and sediment disasters. - Socio-economic reason of causing floods and sediment disasters including poor management of land use. - Environmental reason such as poor basin conservation. - Problems for conducting pre and post disaster actions against floods and sediment disasters. EVALUATINGSAFETYDEGREES (OR RISKS) AGAINST FLOODS AND SEDIMENT DISASTERS INCLUDING TYPHOON DISASTERS - Safety degree of structural measures. - Safety degree of non-structural measures. DIRECTIONS OFIMPROVINGRISKMANAGEMENT FOR FLOODS AND SEDIMENT DISASTERS INCLUDINGTYPHOON DISASTERS - Pre and post disaster management. - Structural measures and non-structural measures - Rehabilitation - Others DATA REQUIREMENT DIRECTIONS FOR HAZARD MAPPING - NDCC CONSTRUCTING REQUIREMENT - Its Members RISKMODELING Figure 1.5 Basic Approach of the Study on Floods and Sediment Disasters F-1-5 Final Report HISTORICAL RECORD OF BASELINE DATA EXISTING RESOURCES EARTHQUAKE - Topographic Map Existing resources inventory - Buildings/Infrastructures Records of historical on both structural and non- - Population earthquake with damage size structural measures for the - Administrative Boundaries earthquake SELECTION OF FOCUS AREA Taking into account on the disaster characteristics UNDERSTANDING BASIC MECHANISM OF EARTHQUAKE DAMEGES IN THE PHILIPPINES Understanding root causes of damages - Physical aspects, such as building condition and urban structures - Social aspects, such as population density Step 2: Primary Evaluation on Safety Degrees and Direction of Risk Management PRIMARY EVALUATION ON SAFETY DEGREES Evaluation on safety degrees from the perspectives of earthquake impact PRESENTATION OF DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVING RISK MANAGEMENT Initial presentation of direction for improving risk management for earthquake including (example): - Structural measures - Non structural measures - Risk management system - Community responses Step 3: Gap Analysis and Recommendations RECOMMENDATION AND REQUIREMENTS FOR DATA REQUIREMENT FOR SUGGESTIONS ON HAZARD MAPPING DATABASE DEVELOPMENT DIRECTION FOR RISK DEVELOPMENT MODELING DEVELOPMENT Figure 1.6 Basic Approach of the Study on Earthquake Disaster F-1-6 Final Report CLARIFYINGCONDITIONS ANDMECHANISMOFVOLCANICDISASTER BASELINEDATA RECORDOF VOLCANIC EXISTINGRESOURCES ERUPTIONand RELATED - Topography, geology, DISASTERS - Conditions of existing satellite images, meteo- monitoring systemfor volcanic hydrology, socio-economy, - Distribution and conditions of eruptions and structural land use, assets distribution, historical eruptions and related measures for related hazard basin conservation, disasters with their magnitude in control / mitigation including environment and others. the country. pre and post disasters responses. ACTIVEVOLCANOES - In terms of eruption and related disasters. MECHANISMOFVOLCANICDISASTERS - Understanding the casuse and effect of damages - Type of eruptions - Affected area - Environmental and socio-economic conditions of the volcanic area. - Problems for conducting pre and post disaster actions against volcanic disasters. EVALUATINGSAFETY DEGREES(ORRISKS) AGAINST FLOODSANDSEDIMENTDISASTERS - Safety degree of structural measures. - Safety degree of non-structural measures. DIRECTIONS OF IMPROVINGRISKMANAGEMENTFORVOLCANICDISASTERS - Pre and post disaster management. - Structural measures and non-structural measures - Rehabilitation - Others DATAREQUIREMENT RECOMMENDATION REQUIREMENTSFOR - NDCC AND SUGGESTIONS HAZARDMAPPING - Its Members ONCONSTRUCTING RISKMODELING Approach of the Study on Volcanic Disasters Figure 1.7 Basic Approach of the Study on Volcanic Disaster F-1-7 Final Report N W E S 100 0 100 200 Kilometers # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # N W E S 100 0 100 200 Kilometers k # Source: PAGASA # # Figure 3.1 Climate Types and Monthly Rainfall Patterns in the Philippines # F-3-1 # # # Final Report N N W E W E S S 1970 1976 1971 1977 1972 1978 1973 1979 1974 1980 1975 100 0 100 200 Kilometers 100 0 100 200 Kilometers N N W E W E S S 1981 1986 1982 1987 1983 1988 1984 1989 1985 1990 100 0 100 200 Kilometers 100 0 100 200 Kilometers N N W E W E S S 1991 1997 1992 1998 1993 1999 1994 2000 1995 2001 1996 2002 100 0 100 200 Kilometers 100 0 100 200 Kilometers Source: PAGASA Figure 3.2 Destructive Typhoon Tracks from 1970 to 2002 F-3-2 Final Report Lowest Pressure Lowest: 890.8 hps by TY Garding in Dec. 1994 1,020.0 )sph( 1,000.0 erusserPtse 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 wo 900.0 L 880.0 1/1/0991 1/1/1991 1/1/2991 1/1/3991 1/1/4991 1/1/5991 1/1/6991 1/1/7991 1/1/8991 1/1/9991 1/1/0002 1/1/1002 1/1/2002 Year/Date Maximum Wind Speed Max: 72 m/s by TY Garding in Dec. 1994 )s/ 80 m( 70 deepS 60 50 dni 40 30 W.xa 20 10 M 0 1/1/0991 1/1/1991 1/1/2991 1/1/3991 1/1/4991 1/1/5991 1/1/6991 1/1/7991 1/1/8991 1/1/9991 1/1/0002 1/1/1002 1/1/2002 Year/Date Maximum 24-hr Rainfall Max: 1085.8 mm at Baguio City by TY Fetia in July. 2001 1200.0 1000.0 ) m 800.0 m(llafnia 600.0 400.0 R 200.0 0.0 1/1/0991 1/1/1991 1/1/2991 1/1/3991 1/1/4991 1/1/5991 1/1/6991 1/1/7991 1/1/8991 1/1/9991 1/1/0002 1/1/1002 1/1/2002 Year/Date Data source: PAGASA "Tropical Cyclone Summary: 1990-2002" Figure 3.3 Lowest Pressure, Max. Wind and Max. 24-hr Rainfall of Destructive Typhoons 1990-2002 F-3-3 Final Report Figure 3.4 Major River Basins and Water Resources Regions in the Philippines F-3-4 Final Report Figure3.5 (1) Frequency of Destructive Typhoon including Flood Disasters by Provinces from 1991- F-3-5 Final Report 2003 F-3-6 Final Report Figure 3.5(2) Frequency of Flashflood Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 F-3-7 Final Report Figure 3.5(3) Frequency of Landslide / Sediment Disasters by Provinces from 1991-2003 F-3-8 Final Report Figure 3.6 Affected Persons per Year by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-9 Final Report Figure 3.7 Annual Property Damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-10 Final Report Figure 3.8 Per-capita Annual Property damage by Destructive Typhoons from 1991 to 2003 F-3-11 Final Report Figure 3.9 Historical Disaster Places of Storm Surge and Storm Surge Prone Areas F-3-12 Final Report Figure 3.10 Location of Existing Major Flood Control and Sediment Control F-3-13 Final Report Figure 3.11 Location of the Existing Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems F-3-14 Final Report Land slide and flood Manila N Brgy. Lutao, Liloan W E Liloan Dead: 22 persons S House damaged: 25 Declared as Hazard Area Collapsed bridge 200 km Panaon Island Land slide N Land slide and mudflow W E Brgy. Punta, San Francisco Dead: 105 persons S House damaged: 103 Main evacuation house was destroyed. 100 0 National Road 100 200 Kilometers Provincial Road San Francisco Mountain Ridge National Road Landslide Coastline Affected Area Main Evacuation House (Destroyed) Debris Flow Brgy. Pinotan, San Ricardo Dead: 5 persons House damaged: 496 San Ricardo 5 km 100 0 100 200 Kilometers Figure 3.12 Condition of Landslide Disaster of Panaon Island in Southern Leyte in Dec.2003 F-3-15 L E G E N D : FLOOD DEPTH ( m ) 1 0.00 - 0.50 2 0.50 - 1.00 3 1.00 - 1.50 4 1.50 - 2.00 5 2.00 - 3.00 3 - 10 DAYS 6 3.00 - 4.00 7 4.00 - 5.00 8 > 5.00 School / Evacuation Center 3 - 14 DAYS 3 - 14 DAYS PRES. ROXAS 1- 3 DAYS SIGMA 3 - 14 DAYS DAO 3 - 14 DAYS Downstream of Dao 1 - 3 DAYS 3 - 14 DAYS F-3- Panay 16 Phxqy 7q ·No structuralmeasures. 2 - 7 DAYS HÂG uusguÂG qgq ·No forecastingmeasures. gsguÂ@xp ·No flood hazard map. ·High rainfallrunoffand siltation bydeforestation. 2 - 4 DAYS PQVKCIKVK/ ·No real-time rainfalland waterleveldata available. ·Insufficientguidance to people forearly evacuation. FgqÂ9giguÂ5iu ·Insufficientcommunication facilitiesin remote areas (no radio communication). Pontevedra ·People'signorance to warningsforearly evacuation. ·Impassable roadsto evacuation centersbyflooding. Cy qÂ9gigu Pxgiq ·Inundated evacuation centersin low-lyingareas. G U ·Insufficientcommunication facilitiesin remote areas. P Q ·Insufficientfacilitiesforsuffered people (food,water, R CrruiuqÂRqiq U 5iuu G medicine,toiletand blanketetc.). 4 ·Insufficientequipmentsforrescue (rubberboatsetc). Around Panitan Fin alR Figure3.13 Inundation Area of December 2000 Flood with Evacuation Places of Panay River Basin eport Final Report N Problematic Area W E S North Western Luzon North Eastern Luzon Central Luzon Bicol and Surroundings Metro Manila Southern Luzon and Eastern Mindoro Leyte and North Eastern Mindanao South and Northeastern Panay and Western Negros Note: Key factors of selection of problematic areas are frequency of flood and 100 0 100 200 Kilometers sediment disasters, affected persons and property damage (total and per-capita). Figure3.14 Problematic Areas of Flood, Sediment Disasters -18- Final Report Source: PHIVOLCS Figure 4.1 Philippine Archipelago with its Bounding Trenches, Subduction Zones, and Trenches Source: PHIVOLCS Figure 4.2 Distribution of Active Faults and Trenches in the Philippines F-4-1 Final Report 90,000 4.5 80,000 4 70,000 3.5 60,000 3 50,000 2.5 40,000 2 30,000 1.5 20,000 1 10,000 0.5 0 0 Population ('000) Ave. annual rate increase Note: Created from census data summary of National Statistics Office Figure 4.3 Population and Average Annual Rate Increase of the Philippines F-4-2 Final Report Population density distribution 1980 Population density distribution 1990 Population density distribution 1995 Population density distribution 2000 Figure 4.4 Population Density Distribution of the Philippines by Years by Municipality F-4-3 Final Report Figure 4.5 Highly Urban and Capital Cities/ Municipalities F-4-4 Final Report Figure 4.6 Active Faults and Population Density F-4-5 Final Report Figure 4.7 Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in the Philippine region from 1608 to 1999 F-4-6 Final Report Figure 4.8 Destructive Earthquake Locations F-4-7 Final Report Source: PHIVOLCS home page, http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph Figure 4.9 Location of Existing Seismological and Volcanological Stations in the Philippines F-4-8 Final Report Source: PHIVOLCS Figure 4.10 Liquefaction Potential Map of PHIVOLCS F-4-9 Final Report Source: PHIVOLCS Figure 4.11 Earthquake Induced Landslide Hazard Map of PHIVOLCS F-4-10 Final Report Figure 4.12 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Ground Damages ­ F-4-11 Final Report Figure 4.13 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Building Damages ­ F-4-12 Final Report Figure 4.14 Damages due to Destructive Earthquakes ­ Infrastructure Related Damages ­ F-4-13 Final Report Figure 4.15 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Tsunami- F-4-14 Final Report Figure 4.16 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Landslides- F-4-15 Final Report Figure 4.17 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Liquefaction- F-4-16 Final Report Figure 4.18 Notable Secondary Phenomenon of Destructive Earthquakes ­ Aftershocks- F-4-17 Final Report Figure 4.19 Direct Causes of Casualties in Destructive Earthquakes and their Impact F-4-18 Final Report Impact Direct Damages Casualties Property Damage Ground Rupture S S LG Ground Shaking Bldg Dam. LG Ground Shaking Infra Dam. M M Earthquak e Secondary Damages (Groun LG LG d Tsunami Rupture ) Landslide M M Liquefaction S LG Fire Spread LG LG Figure 4.20 Earthquake Damage Mechanism in the Philippines F-4-19 Final Report Figure 5.1 Location of the Volcanoes in the Philippines F-5-1 Final Report Figure 5.2 Number of Active and Potentially Active Volcanoes per Province F-5-2 Final Report [Hazard] [Type of [Type of Activity] Disaster] Lava Flow - Loss of lives - Vegetation Ash Fall - Crops - Infrastructure Direct Hazard Pyroclastic Flow damage - Farm land - Houses Base Surge Volcanic - Effect on Global Eruption Environment Gas Ejection Bury - Lives - Houses Indirect Lahar - Infrastructure Hazard - Farm land - River channels - Environmental degradation Figure 5.3 Mechanism of Volcanic Disaster F-5-3 Final Report Figure 5.4 Problematic Areas of Volcanoes F-5-4 Final Report Figure 6.1 Existing Meteorological Observation Networks F-6-1 Final Report Figure 6.2 Existing Hydrological and Tidal Observation Networks F-6-2 Final Report A. RIVER BASIN MODEL FOR FLOOD - Most Basic Model for Damage Estimation LEGEND River Sea Basin boundary Provincial capital Town Evacuation place Evacuation route Flooding area with different water depth Schematic FloodRisk Map A-1 FloodandFloodDamage Estimation basedon FloodSurvey : Basically required A-1-1 Survey on Major Floods in Recent Years To be Produced FloodSurvey Survey Method 1) Flood Risk Map 1) Major Floods 1) Site investigation Flood 1 (Probability 1) 2) Flood mark survey To be analyzed Flood 2 (Probability 2) 3) Interview to people 1) Damage condition 2) Average Floods 4) Information fromLGUs 2) Problems of evacuation Flood 3 (Probability 3) 5) Others 3) Problems of response 4) Problems of rehabilitation A-1-2 FloodDamage Estimation in Monetary Terms basedon RecordedFloods Survey on Assets 1) Houses 2) Industries To be Analyzed 3) Commercial & Trades Survey Method 1) Damageable values 4) Infrastructure 1) Statistical data 2) Damage rates 5) Agriculture 2) Landuse map/data 3) Damage estimation 6) Livestocks 3) Data of LGUs 4) Annual damage 7) Fishery 4) Field sample survey 8) Others A-2 Simulation of Floods andFloodDamage : Necessary to assess damages of without andwith structural mitigations measures Physical Model for Probable Floods Rainfall Runoff Model for Basin Hydraulic Model for River SimulatedFlooding Condition 1) Input: Probable stormrainfall 1) Probable flood water level 1) Probable flooding areas 2) Output: Rainfall runoff volume 2) Probable flood discharge 2) Flood depth and duration Economic/Financial Model Probable Damage in Annual Damage in Database of Assets Monetary Terms Monetary Terms - For each probable flood - As expected value of probability analysis Figure 6.3 (1) Proposed Flood Risk Model (1/2) F-6-3 Final Report B. REGIONAL MODEL B-1 Regional Model for Monetary Damage basedon Basin Model : To be recommended Region Y 1) Damage of the respective flood (probability 1) Basin Model 1 2) Annual damage of Basin 1 Total Regional Damage 1) Damage of the respective flood (probability 2) Basin Model 2 of the Respective Flood 2) Annual damage of Basin 2 1) Damage of the respective flood (probability 3) Basin Model 3 2) Annual damage of Basin 3 Annual Regional Damage 1) Damage of the respective flood (probability N) Basin Model N 2) Annual damage of Basin N B-2 Provisional Regional Model for Monetary Damage basedon the ReportedDamages : Only for provisional application Region Y Historical Reported Damage of Province 1 Historical Reported Damage of Province 2 Historical Reported Regional Damage Adjusted Historical Adjusted Annual (under price level of Regional Damage Regional Damage Historical Reported present year) Damage of Province 3 Adjustment Factors of Damage - Based on the recorded damage values and estimated damage values of the Historical Reported Basin Models of some sample Damage of Province M river basins (to be studied). C. Matters to be improved 1) Improvement of topographic maps 2) Improvement of landuse maps 3) Strengthening of meteo-hydrological observation networks with improvement of data quality 4) Assets database of provinces and river basins 5) Improvement of accuracy of the reports on provincial property damages by DCCs Figure 6.3 (2) Proposed Flood Risk Model F-6-4 Final Report A. RIVER BASIN MODEL FOR SEDIMENT WITHFLOOD - Most Basic Model for Damage Estimation LEGEND River Basin boundary Provincial capital Town Evacuation place Evacuation route Sediment deposition area with different sediment depth Landslide (potential) area Flooding area Schematic Risk Model for Sediment andLandslide of water C-1 Sediment including Landslide Damage Estimation basedon Survey : Basically required C-1-1 Survey on Major Sediment including Landslide Damage in Recent Years Survey Method 1) Site investigation To be Produced Survey 2) Sediment / Flood mark 1) Sediment with Landslide 1) Major Sediment Damage survey Risk Map Event 1 (Probability 1) 3) Survey on slope failures To be analyzed Event 2 (Probability 2) and landslide 1) Damage condition Event 3 (Probability 3) 4) Survey on unstable 2) Problems of evacuation sediment in the rivers 3) Problems of response 5) Interview to people 4) Problems of rehabilitation 6) Information fromLGUs C-1-2 Sediment including Landslide Damage Estimation in Monetary Terms basedon RecordedEvents Survey on Assets 1) Houses 2) Industries To be Analyzed Survey Method 3) Commercial & Trades 1) Statistical data 1) Damageable values 4) Infrastructure 2) Landuse map/data 2) Damage rates 5) Agriculture 3) Data of LGUs 3) Damage estimation 6) Livestock 4) Field sample survey 4) Annual damage 7) Fishery 8) Others Figure 6.4 Proposed Sediment including Landslide Risk Model F-6-5 Final Report Database Hazard Map Risk Map Risk Development Modeling Development Development Developmen Collect and Develop hazard map (physical Add value of asset develop basic hazard) and risk map (possible to the risk map for damages of the assets) financial · Building inventory · PGADistribution · Building damages · Financial risk by · Population · Intensity · Casualties number of building · collapse, etc Topographic map Distribution · Infrastructure · · Additional risk Geological map · Liquefaction damages evaluation upon · Earthquake data · Tsunami · Fire damages availability of assets · Land use · Earthquake and its damage · induced landslide estimation Infrastructure data · Financial data Figure 6.5 General Flow of the Database. Hazard and Risk Map, and Risk Modeling Development F-6-6 Final Report Figure 6.6 PGA Distribution Figure 6.7 Intensity Distribution Figure 6.8 Liquefaction Source: MMEIRS, 2003, JICA F-6-7 Final Report Figure 6.9 Building Damages Figure 6.10 Maximum Burnt Buildings (Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings) by Fire Figure 6.11 Distribution of Water Figure 6.12 Result of Bridges and Pipeline Damage Flyovers Stability Analysis Source: MMEIRS, 2003, JICA F-6-8 Final Report Figure 6.13 Bulasan Lava-Lahar Hazard Figure 6.14 Bulasan Pyroclastic Flow Map Hazard Map Figure 6.15 Canlaon Lava Flow Hazard Map Figure 6.16 Canlaon Volcanic Pyroclasic Flow and Lahar Hazard Map Source: PHIVOLCS F-6-9 Final Report Figure 6.17 Hazard Zonation Map for Airfall Figure 6.18Hazard Zonation Map for Lahar Tephra and Ballistic Projects, Hibok-hibok and Floods, Hibok-hibok Figure 6.19 Hazard Zonation Map for Lava Figure 6.20 Hazard Zonation Map for Hibok- Flows, Hibok-hibok hibok Source: PHIVOLCS F-6-10 Final Report Figure 6.21 Hazard Zonation Map for Pyroclastic Flows and Lateral Blasts, Hibok- Figure 6.22 Pinatubo Volcano Hazard Zones hibok Source: PHIVOLCS F-6-11 Final Report Figure 6.23 Mayon Volcano Ashfall Hazard Map Figure 6.24 Mayon Volcano Lahar Hazard Map Figure 6.25 Mayon Volcano Lava Flow Hazard Figure 6.26 Mayon Volcano Pyroclastic Flow Map Hazard Map Source: PHIVOLCS F-6-12 Final Report Figure 6.27 Taal Volcano Ballistic Projectiles Hazard Map Figure 6.28 Taal Volcano Base Surge Hazard Map S o u r c e : P H I V O L C S Figure 6.29 Taal Volcano Seiches/ Lake water Oscillation and Fisshering Hazard Map Source: PHIVOLCS F-6-13 Final Report Figure 7.1 Index of Existing 1:50,000 scale maps at NAMRIA F-7-1 Final Report Figure 7.2 Existing Coverage of Aerial Photography F-7-2 Final Report Figure 7.3 Land Cover map for Southern Leyte F-7-3 Final Report Figure 7.4 Available geological maps at scale 1:50,000 at the MGB F-7-4 Final Report Figure 7.5 Erosion Map for Southern Leyte F-7-5 Final Report Figure 7.6 Vicinity of Bgy Punta, San Francisco, Southern Leyte, Site of Dec 2003 Landslide F-7-6 Final Report Figure 7.7 Slope Map for Southern Leyte F-7-7 Final Report F-7-8 Final Report Figure 7.8 Existing Weather Surveillance Radar F-7-9 Appendix r - - 3 f-3 e---I r-3 r-7 r 7 f-7 r-3 r--2 r-3 f-7 - List of Destructive Earthquakew~thits Damages Appendix 4-1 Source: Createdfrom availabledata of the followings: 1) OCD. 2) SoutheastAsia Association of Seismologyand Earthquake Engineering.Volume IV, Ph~lippines,1985,3)Destwctivee earthquakes in the Philippinesfrom 1983to 1995,PHIVOLCS,4) PHIVOLCSweb pages Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3- 1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-1 List of Meteorological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological St Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological S Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological St Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological St2 Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological St Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological St ! Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Stations Appendix 3-2 List of Hydrological Sta Appendix 3-3 List of Tide Stations Appendix 7 Assessment of DataAvailability of Maps. Digital and Hardcopy and other Databases Coverage Source Scale Year Format CoordinateSysfem Nofe PhysicalCondrtions Data Base Map Topographlc Map 11.500.000 Sertes Phtltpp~nes NAMRIA 1 1.500.000 1954 HardwpyIDig~tal GCS The 1.1.500.000 mapcovenngthe Phritpplneswas onglnallycomplledby the Phll~pptne Coast 8 GeodetlcSurveyin 1954w~thsome locations updatedfrom 1987to 1997 The map IS publ~shedby NAMRIAin paperform and coversthe entlrecountryinone sheet Topographic Map 1:1.250,000 Series Philippines NAMRlA 1250.000 ( 1954 HardcopyIDtgttal GCS The 1 250.000 mapcovenngthe Phlltpplneswas producedIn 1954wlth informattonfromthe I Phlll~~lneCoast & Geodebc Survev. Armv MapServ~ceCornsof Enatneersand the US 8 GeodeticSurvey. The 1:2i0,00&eri~s of mapsar; publish& by NAMRIAand conslsts of 55 sheets. Contoursare at 100 m intervals.These maDshave alreadv been ' I ld~~itizedand is being used by Phivolcsfordisaster related adiv11i;s. I I I ! I 11.50.000 11947to 1953 fHardcopy , JGCS lThe 711 series of mapswere onglnaliypubbshedbythe USArmy Service and complied from aenal photographstakenin 1947to 1953. Contoursare at 20 m intervals Thetotal numberof sheets for the 711series is 842. / 150.000 11976 to 1979 l~ardcopy IGCS l ~ h701 series maps publishedby NAMRIA coversmostof Luzonand replaces the 711 e Iseriesof maps coveringthe area.The mapswere producedusingaerial photographytaken fom 1976lo 1979. The total number of sheetsfor the 701 seriesis 151. I Topographic Map NTMSSeries - ' SelectedAreas NAMRIA 1.50,OOO 1988Hardcopy GCS The NationalTopographicMapplngSenes(NTMS) seriesof mapswtll eventuallyreplace the 5701 and S711 maps. The Ph~l~ppineswillbe eventuallycoveredin 672 sheeQ.The series is currently beinq updatedand presentlv,about 79 sheets areavailable Productionof I 1 I I I 1 (theNTMSstartedin 1988. SEDIP-SMETopoqraphicMaps Iselected 1DepEd 1150,000 1 2003\Shapefiie 1PTM t ~ h SEDIP-SMEto~oara~hlcma~swereproducedin2003 for the Seconda~Edumtlon e I I Provinces(Reref Developmentand lm~ovementproject School MappingExercise - (SEDIP- ME) tosupport to SEDlP-SME list theGIs analvsisreauirementsof the oroied. The maoswere inittallvdioitized from the I 1 for informationon NAMRIA 1:56.000 mapsand updatedwih data gathired from DPWH,SPOT 20m covered provinces)[ multispedralImageryand GPSsurvey Topographic Map- I10,000 Serles MetroMan~la NAMRIA 1 10,000 1982HardcopylD~g~tal GCS The 1 10.000scale mapswere producedas ajolnt projectbetweenNAMRIA and the Japan lnlematlonaiCooperationAgency (JICA)basedon aenalphotographytaken in 1982 D~gttal verstonof thts data are also available D~gltalElevattonModel Phtltpp~nes USGS 1 Km Dlg~tal Th~sD~g~talElevat~onmodeln freedownloadablefrom USGS. Resolulton Maps at Nat~onallmgatlonAuthority SelectedAreas NIA Deta~ledTop0 MostlyAnalogue NIAIS tasked wlth thedevelopn~ent,construction, monltonngand maintenance of all 1'1000 to tmgatlonsystemsthroughoutthe country. The totailand area now underimgat~onis 14000wlth 1.338.800 ha of whlch678.500 ha falls underthe Nat~onallmgat~onSystem(NIS). whle 025toIOm 486.100 ha underthe Communallrngatlon System(CIS) and the remainmg174,200ha is contours under PnvatePump lm~atlonSvstem The ootenttal~rnaableareaof the countrv a estimatedat 3,128.000ha hen& thereis st~ilabout 1,789,200 ha or 57.2% of tie country's Dam Stte MostlyAnalogue total lrrigable areato bedeveloped.Thetopographicmapsat NIAwere complledat a large Topo 1.400to scale and can bea s~gnlficantsource of topograph~cinformationfor disastermanagement 1.500 with 0 1 Mostof the data are st111In analogueformat, convertingthesedata to d~g~talformat can t o l 0 m makethe data usefulinGIs analyses. contours Reservo~r MostlyAnalogue Topo maps 1.4000 to 1.10000 w~th 20to100m I Icontours I I I I MMEIRSTopograph~cMap Metro Man~la MMEiRS 1.5,OOO 200 HardcopyIDlgital PTMIll The MMEiRStopographtcmapwas producedto supportthe GIs analysesrequirementsof the EarthquakeImpactRedudlon Studyfor MetroManila(MMiERS). The maoswere based LandCover Mapl land Use ISEDIP-SMELandCover Maps Iselected 1DepEd 11:50.000 1998-2000 Shapefile PTM Landcoverwas interpretedfrom SPOT 20m multispedralimagery. The landcover maps I I Provinces (Reref were producedas partof the SecondaryEducationDevelopmentand improvement Project - Ito S;DIP-SME list SchoolMappingExercise(SEDIP-SME) for informationon I Icoverd provinces1 I I 1 Mapping of the NaturalConditionsof the Philippines Phiilippines NAMRIA 1:250.000 1987-1988 Hardcopy GCS The LandCoverMapswere producedusingSPOT satelltteimagestaken In 1987-1988. Thes mapswere outputsof the Droied. "Mao~inQthe NaturalCond~tionsof the Phiiiooines" which wis funded b; the ~ o r i d ' ~ a kand theSwedishSpaceCorporation.Givenemphasis k on these maps areforests. extensive and intensivelanduse, coastalareascovering approximately300,000sq km of land area. Supportingstatisticsare also available. Topographicmapsat 1:250.000 scalewere usedas base maps P 7 %7-3 9 !------I 1 r -7 - 1 r - 3 r-1 r- Appendix 7 Assessmentof DataAvailability of Maps, Digital and Hardcopy and other Databases Coverage Some Scale Year Format Coordrnate System Note Public Factlttres Hosp~tals Ph~l~pp~nes DOH.NAMRIA +I- 5m 2003 GIs GCS The DOHwlth the assistance of NAMRIA,mapped allthe RegtonalHealthUnlts(RHU). accuracy hospitals and municipal heahhcenters throughoutthe Phtllpplnesas part of theWomen's Heaith& Safe MotherhoodProject. Attributes such asfac~l~tlesavatlableand personnelwere alsocapturedfor each RHU, hospital, and municlpalhealthcenter. I n a 2003 ExcelFile The BElScontalns a ltstlng of ail publlc elementaryand hlghschools inthe Phlllppines The 11sts cornplledand malntalnedby the Researchand StatisttcsOfficeof the Departmentof Educat~onCentral Office Attrtbute ~nformatlonabouteachschoolsuch as numberof students,teachersand other school relateddata are Included It IS updatedyearlyfrom information gathered from each school by DepEdReglonaiOfices. I I I I I I I PubllcElementary& HlghSchools NCR MMElRS 1'5.000 2003Shapefile PTM Locat~onsof Publlc Elementaryand hlghschoolswere plottedas partof the MMEIRS Drolect Schoolswere assloned codes comoatlblewlth thecodes usedbv,DeoED's BElS . I ! I I I I /database Thls wouldfac~l~iatelhnkingof schoollocatlonswith BElS PubilcElementary& HlghSchools Selected DepEd 150,000 200 Shapefile GCS Locations of Publlc Elementaryand hlghschoolswere plottedas partof the DepEd's SEDlP Provinces SME proiect Schoolswere asslgnedcodes compatible mththe wdes usedby DepED's BElS database.Thls would facliiate llnklngof school locatlonswth BElS Indddltion. pictures,schoolsitedevelopment plansand other schooisdocumentsare also avadable. Thesedata aresummanzedInan application called "Geographic Databaseof Secondary Schools"which was developedas partof the projecl. - Infrastructure IGCS NatlonaiRoadNetwork Phllllppines DPWH +I-10m 2000 to 2002 Shapefile Nat~onalRoad Datawas collectedustngvehicle-mounted GPSwith dlfferentlalpost- accuracy processins Itis bellevedthat thts data IS accurateto +/-I0 meters. Thevast maiorihl of this data was ;oliected ,n year 2000. bdt the networkin Reg~onsIX and XI1werc coliecledin lalei 2002. Some "oao" sectionsremain(dueto impassableroads. failed bridoesat the time of i I I sutvey). D P W ~ has processes andbroceduresinplaceto mainbln thisiata, therefore updateswlll beavailable infuture, probablyon an annualbasis. ProvtnctalRoad Network Ph~llipp~nes DPWH 1 250.00 1954Shapefile GCS ProvtnclalRoads were dlgtttzedfrom NAMRIA basemapplngInthe early 1990'sfrom the DPWHbebeve. 1250.000 senes maps DPWHhas made no attemptto rwnctle lhis data wbththe (Nat~onalRoadNetwork) It IS knownthat some roadsinthls prov~nclallayer have now beenconvertedto Natlonaljur?sd~ct~on,therefore they shouldbe deletedfrom thls layer DPWHmaycleanthls layerInfuture, however~t1s not a hlghpnonly at present. I Bndges Phlltpplnes DPWH n a 1995 Database n a The DPWHconductedan inventory of all Brldgesthroughoutthe Phlllpptnesunderthe "Natlonw~deBndgeInspectbonProject" Thls IS a partof an umbrellaprojectcalled "Rehabll~tatlonand Maintenance of BndgesalongArienalRoads: Aunbutesof bndges suchas lypeand dlmenslonsof bndges are tncludedmthedatabase IGeneralHazardData Mapsat the Bureau So11Map BSWM Scale is I I I /Bureauof Soilsand Water Management(BSWM) of the Departmentof Agriculture is the of Solls and Water LandFactorMaps usually malnproducerof agricultural relatedthematlc maps Inthe countryand the rangeof BWSM's Management Hydro-EcoloqlcalZone 1 50,000 or mapproductsare generatedbasedon NAMRiA's lopographlcbasemaps of 1 50,000 and (BSWM)of the . Pedo-EcologicalZone 1 250.000 1250.000 They are malniyIn analogueformat and some In dlgltalformal Departmentof LandManagementUntt Agranan Reform Elevation I I 1Bureau I I 1 I I GeologicalFormations ~ N C R IPhivolcsIMMEIRSI 200$3hapefile ~PTM111 I I I I I I I SEDIP-SMESollEroslonClasslficatton Selected BSWMlDepEd 1950' Shapefile PTM Dtgttlzedfrom BSWMErostonMaps Provinces Earthquake ITrenchMap [Phivolcs l~hllipp~nes 11.250.0013 1 200CjShapefile IGCS I r-7 r~ r--I - r a 1-7 r - 3 r-~r-I n r a n i Appendix 7 1 Assessment of DataAvailability of Maps, Digitaland Hardcopy and other Databases Coveraae S o u m Scale Year Format Coordinate System Nofe FaultMap IPhlvolcs l~hil~pp~nes 11 250.000 1 2000(Shapefile IGCS I Liquefact~onPotentla1 ~NCR ~MMEIRS 115,000 1 20031Shapefile ~PTMIII IThese hazard maps were prepared as part of the EathquakeImpact Reductionstudy for I I I I I I I I Slope Slablldy ~ N C R ~MMEIRS 115000 1 200jSnapehle ~ P T M 111 IMetropoltlanN.an:la conducted by JlCA !n cooperat!onw.th MMDA and PHiVOLCS Peak GroundAcceleralron ~ N C R IMMEIRS 115000 1 2004ShapeBle IPTM Ill I 1 Volcano Volcano Locat~onsiC~ass~ficat~ons 1~hivo~cs ~ ~ h l l l p ~ l n e s 1150,000 1 200aShapefile ~GCS I Volcano HazardMaps lPhivolcs IMostAct~ve IVaries l ~ a r ~ e s l ~ l g ~ t a l ~ G c S Note 1. Provinces coveredInSEDIP-SMEMaps Ifugao.CAR 6enguet.CAR Antique, R6 Guimaras. R6 Agusan del Sur. CARAGA Surlgao dei Sur, CAWIGA Romblon. R4 Masbate, R5 NegrosOnental. R7 B~iiran.R8 Leyie,R8 SouthemLeyte, R8 Zamboangadei Sur, R9 NorthCotabato, R12 2 Many LGU's ~nthe Phliipplnesother that those mentioned Inthe list have, on thew own, Initiatedthe preparation of base maps of their respectweareas Th~sIS based usually on aenal photographyor satel~te Imageby. Scaleusedrangesfrom 12000to 1 25,000 The LGU's ~nthe l~stwere mentioned to illustratethe typ~calamount of detail that can be found tn this maps. 3. Specific areasof the Philippineshavealso been covered by large scale mappingon a per project basis Abreviations GovernmentAgencies DeoEd De~artmentof Education D ~ W H ~ebartlnentof Publ~cWorks and Highways MMDA Melro~olitanMan~laDevelo~mentAuthoriw NAMRiA NationalMappingResourcesInformationAgency NSO NationalStatisticsOffice PHiVOLCS PhilippineInstituteof Volcanologyand Seismology Project Names BElS Basic Educationand InformationSvslem MMEIRS EarthquakeImpactReductionstudy for MetropolitanManila SEDIP-SME SecondaryEducationDevelopmentand ImprovementPro:ect - School Mapping Exercise Coordinate Systems GCS GeographicCoordinateSystem PTM PhilippineTransverse Mercator Appendix 8 The World Bank L National Disaster Coordination Council (NDCC) !- Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines L ReducingVulnerability r Follow-on Study k.. Questionnaire on Disaster Risk Rlanagernent Province: C Name of Respondent: Sex: Agency/Office: Position: Tel No.: Fax No.: E-mail: i""" L 1. Most Severely Damaging Disasters in RecentYears 1-1Water Related Disasters Please fill up the table below with information concerning the most severely damaging water-related disaster that occurred in the province during the period 1990-2004. Please attach detailed damage descriptions and maps of affected area (if any) at the end of this questionnaire. a) Date b) River Basin Name c)Affected areas d)Availabilityof map of affected area UYes ONo e)Type of disaster ClFlood OFlash flood ODebris 1Mud flow (Sediment) OStorm surge OLandslide OOthers (Pls.Specify): f) Cause of disaster U Extreme typhoon q Tropical depression q Local heavy rains Insufficient dischargecapacity of river channel CI lnsuficient structural measures Siltation Deforestation Improper land use 17 Illegal structure alongthe river channel O Delay of evacuation Others (Pls. specify): g) Major damage People Houses and buildings 17 Road 17 Water supply 17 Electricity Agriculture Fishery including fishpond 17 Others (Pls. specify): 1-2 Earthquake Disaster a) Has the province ever experienced any disastrous damage caused by earthquake since 1970? O Yes No If yes, when did the last disastrous earthquakeoccur? b) If yes, what were the secondary causes of damage induced by the last earthquakethat occurred? 17 Building Collapse Fire Liquefaction 17 Crack of ground 17 Landslide Tsunami Others (Pls. specify): c) What were the major damages caused by the last earthquake that occurred? Damage to people Building Land subsidence Crack of ground Landslide Road Water supply 17 Electricity Others (Pls. specify): 1-3 Voicanic Disaster a) Has the province ever experienced any severe volcanic disaster? Yes No Ifyes, when did the last disastrous volcanic eruption occur? b) If yes, what were the major cause(s) of volcanic disaster in the province? Pyroclastic flow Lavaflow Volcanic gas Volcanic Ash Lahar Others (Pis. specify): C c) What were the major damage(s) caused by the volcanic eruption? q Damageto people Buifding Agriculture q Fisheries Road Water supply q Electricity Others (Pls. specify): 2. Problems and Directions for Disaster Risk Management Looking back to the fime when fhe last severely damaging disaster occurred, please answer the following quesfions abouf your experiences regarding preparedness and the response measures fhat you adopted. 2-1 Preparedness 1) Awareness a) For those who experienced a severely damaging floodins, sedimentation or typhoon: Are you aware of the fact that the province is flood-prone or sediment-prone or typhoon-prone area? q Yes No Do you think that people in the province are aware of the fact that the province is flood-prone or sediment-prone or typhoon-prone area? Yes No b) For those who experienced a severely damagingearthquake: L Are you aware of the fact that the province is one of the most earthquake prone areas of T"" the country? U Y e s O N o L 7 Do you think that people in the province are aware of the fact that the province is one of r i the most earthquake prone areas of the country? U Yes No Lu p.- I&- c) For those who have experienceda severely damaging volcanic eruption: Are you aware of the fact that the province is one of the areas of the country, which are most prone to volcanic disaster? O Yes O No P- Do you think that people in the province are aware of the fact that the province is one of I-- the areas of the country, which are most prone to volcanic disaster? Yes No L P 2) Preparedness(related to questions 2-1 I): L a) Are there any preparatory measuresyou have been taking? q Yes No b) If Yes, what are these? Please mention 5 major preparatory measures you have been adopting in the province. Please explain briefly each of the measures. c) Do you think that there are constraints to the successful adoption of the existing preparatory measures you mentioned above (item b)? 0Yes El No IfYes, what are these? d) What other preparatory measures do you think are necessary in addition to the ones you mentioned in item b)? Please mentionthe first five mast important ones. 1. 2. e) Do you think that there will be constraints to the successful adoption of the additional preparatory measures that you have mentioned in item d)? 17 Yes NO IfYes, what are these? i- i, 2-2 Mitigation Measures (Structural and Non-structural Measures) a) Are there any existing mitigation measures inthe province in times of disaster? Yes No b) If Yes, what are these existing disaster mitigation measures? 1. 2. Example of mitigation measures: Structural: Flood control facilities Sedimenf and landslide control facilities. Strengthening of infrastructure facilities against earthquake Non-structural: Real-time observation stations for rainfall and water level Real-time observation stations for earthquake Forecasting and warning system Re-forestation Land use management for the hazard prone areas c) Do you think that there are any constraints in the successful adoption of the mitigation measuresyou mentioned above (Item a)? Yes No If Yes, what are these? d) In your idea, what are the necessaryactions to improve the existing mitigation measures in the province? Please mentionthe first five major ones. 2-3 Evacuation I)Whendoyouusuallyevacuatepeoplefromdisasterareas? Early evacuation (before disaster) Just before the disaster occurs During the occurrence of disaster No evacuation 2) Who determinesthe evacuationtiming? Earlv Evacuation Before Disaster Happens a) Is the early evacuation being conducted effectively? Yes No 5 b) If No, what are the reasons why early evacuation could not be conducted effectively? Please mention the 5 most major ones. 1. 2. What are tlie measures necessary in order to improve the conduct of early evacuation? Please mention the 5 most major ones. 1. 2. 3. d) Generally, are there good communication lines between and among the PDCC, MDCC and BDCC during early evacuation? 17 Yes 17 No e) If No, what are the main reasons for the poor communication lines between and among PDCC, MDCC and BDCC durins early evacuation? Please mention the 5 most major reasons. 1. 2. 3. 2-4Responses During Disaster Stage (i.e.,rescuing victims etc.) a) Are there constraints to the immediate responseduring the occurrence of the disaster? Yes No If Yes, what are these constraints? Please mention the 5 most major ones. 1. b) What are the actions necessary to improve the immediate response measures during disasters? Please mention the 5 most major ones. I. 2. 3. c) Generally, are there good communication lines between and among the PDCC, MDCC and BDCC during the response stage? Yes No e) If No, what are the main reasons for the poor communication lines between and among \ PDCC, MDCC and BDCC during the response stage? Please mention the 5 most major reasons. 1. - 2-5Post-DisasterStage (Rehabilitationmeasures such as reconstruction of houses efc.) a) Are there constraintsto the effective implementationof rehabilitation measures duringthe post-disaster stage? El Yes No IfYes, what are these constraints? Pleasemention the 5 most major ones. b) What are the measures necessary in order to improve the implementation of rehabilitationmeasures? Please mentionthe 5 most major ones. 3. Data and Hazard Map Requirement for Disaster Risk Management In order fo facilifafe the improvemenf of disasfer risk managemenf, data requiremenf and hazard map requirement are likewise given focus in this sfudy Please answer fhe following P quesfions based on your knowledge abouf the present sfatus of disasfer risk managemenf in b, fhe province. r L. 3-1 Data Requirements 1) Availability of Baseline Information Topographic maps: Scale: ,Year Scale:- ,Year Scale: ,Year Aerial photographs: Scale: ,Year Geological maps: Scale: ,Year Land Use Map: Scale: ,Year O Meteorologicaldata: Numberofexistingstationsunderoperation Hydrological data: Number of existing stations under operation Socio-Economic DataIProfile: Year (most recent) Other data (Please specify): Year: Which types of data do you think need to be strengthened/enhanced in order to improve disaster risk management in the province? I. 2. Do you see any problems or constraintsto such data strengtheninglenhancement? Yes No If Yes, what are these problems cr constraints. Please describe. 3-2Hazard Map Requirement I)Haveanyhazardmapsbeencreatedbefore? q Yes q No IfYes, please attach the hazard maps at the end of this questionnaire. If No, what are the reasons why the hazard maps have not been created? 2) Is there any evacuation place identified in the province? OYes ONo 3) Is there any evacuation route identified in the province? OYes ONo 4) Are there any maps indicatingthe evacuation places and routes? UYes ONo If Yes, please attach the maps at the end of this questionnaire. 5a) Have the evacuation places functioned effectively during the last occurrence of the most severely damaging disaster? UYes ONo If No, what do you think are the reasonswhy they have not functioned effectively? 5b) Have the evacuation routes functioned effectively during the last occurrence of the most severely damaging disaster? OYes ONo If No, what do you think are the reasonswhy they have not functioned effectively? 6a) Do people know the location of evacuation places? OYes ClNo 6b)Do people know the location of evacuationroutes? OYes ONo 7) Inwhat ways can people be informed about the location of evacuation places and routes? 4. Burdenof Disaster Rehabilitation We would like fo know the burden of disaster rehabilifafion on fhe provincial budgef and expenditure during the last 5 years since fhe sfart of disaster risk management in the province. I . Item 1 Year I)~otamrovinciaiBudget (In Million Pesos) a) Budgetfor construction and investment b) Budgetfor operation and maintenance c) Budgetfor rehabilitation of the damage d) Budget for others 2) abtaal Provincial Expenditure (In Million Pesos) a) Expenditurefor construction and investment b) Expenditurefor operations and maintenance c) Expenditurefor rehabilitationof the damage d) Expenditurefor others 5. Opinions and Suggestionsfor Disaster Risk Management Please describe the problems of the province regarding Disaster Risk Management, if you know of any. Also, give your suggestionson how it can be improved, if you have any. - I-' Thankyou for your cooperation!