77938 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORKING PAPER 1  |  Agriculture Joel Hourticq Carole Megevand with Eric Tollens Johanna Wehkamp Hari Dulal APRIL 2013 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORKING PAPER 1  |  Agriculture Joel Hourticq Carole Megevand with Eric Tollens Johanna Wehkamp Hari Dulal APRIL 2013 Working Paper 1: Agriculture iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Working Paper 1: Agriculture is one of the outputs of the global study on “Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection�, that was conducted by a multi-dispinary team under the leadership of the World Bank at the request of the COMIFAC (Regional Commission in charge of Forestry in Central Africa) to strengthen the understanding of the deforestation dynamics in the Congo Basin. This Working Paper was prepared by Joel Hourticq and Carole Megevand, with significant contributions from Eric Tollens, Johanna Wehkamp and Hari Dulal. The team is grateful for useful guidance provided by Christian Berger. The report was ably edited by Sheila Gagen. Maps and illustrative graphs were prepared by Hrishikesh Prakash Patel. The study benefited from financial support from various donors, including: Norway through the Norwegian Trust Fund for Private Sector and Infrastructure (NTF-PSI), the Program on Forests (PROFOR), and the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD). Working Paper 1: Agriculture v CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . III ACRONYMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XI Promising prospects for the agricultural sector.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi How could this affect the forest cover?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii INTRODUCTION.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii CHAPTER 1  AGRICULTURE IN THE CONGO BASIN: A MAJOR BUT NEGLECTED SECTOR.1 A Key Economic Sector for the Congo Basin Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Dominated by Traditional Subsistence Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Slash-and-Burn Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Smallholders and Large Commercial Plantations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Little Support from Public Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Limited Allocation of Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Weak Land Tenure Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Paralyzed by Poor Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 An Underperforming Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Low Reliance on Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Low Productivity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Increased Dependence on Imports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Poor Human Development Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Limited Adverse Impacts on Forests So Far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Overall Low Deforestation Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Deforestation Driven by Demographics and Subsistence Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Low Impact of Large-Scale Plantations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 vi Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection CHAPTER 2  WILL AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT BE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE FORESTS?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Potential for Agricultural Development in the Congo Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Growing International Demand for Agricultural Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Vibrant Domestic and Regional Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Land Suitability and Availability .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Potential to Increase Productivity .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Unconstrained Water Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Future Impacts on Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Will an Increase in Land Productivity Reduce or Exacerbate the Pressure on Forests?.. . 31 Effect of International Demand for Agricultural Commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Land Availability: Forested Versus Nonforested Lands.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 CHAPTER 3  RECONCILING AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOREST PRESERVATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Prioritize Agricultural Expansion in Non-forested Areas.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Enforce Forest Protection and Manage the Agricultural Frontier. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Clarify Land Tenure Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Promote Climate-Smart Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Reinvigorate Research and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Empower Smallholder Farmers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Promote a Sustainable Large-Scale Agribusiness Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Foster Win-Win Partnerships between Large-Scale Operators and Smallholders. . . . . . . . 40 Develop Transport Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Create Positive Incentives and Remove Potential Negative Incentives.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 ANNEX: THE CONGOBIOM MODEL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Understanding the Impact of Global Trends on the Congo Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 GLOBIOM Model—Detailed Formal Description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Working Paper 1: Agriculture vii FIGURES Figure 1.1:Share of Rural Population in Total Population, 1994–2007  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Figure 1.2: Share of Economically Active Population in Agriculture  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1.3: Evolution of Agriculture’s Contribution to GDP, 1988–2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1.4: Evolution of AGDP, 1994–2007  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 1.5: Evolution of AGDP per Capita of Agricultural Population, 1994–2007  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 1.6: Congo Basin Countries’ per Capita Agricultural Production Index, 1994–2007 (1999-2001=100)  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 1.7: Evolution of Total Plantation Areas, 1998–2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 1.8: Evolution of Cocoa Harvested Areas, 1998–2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 1.9: Evolution of Coffee Harvested Areas, 1998-2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 1.10: Evolution of Oil Palm Harvested Areas, 1998–2008  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 1.11: Evolution of Rubber Harvested Areas, 1998–2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 1.12: Evolution of Banana Harvested Areas, 1998–2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 1.13: CAADP Implementation Progress, January 2001 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 1.14: Road Transport Quality Indices and Road Density for Sub-Saharan and Congo Basin Countries  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 1.15: Fertilizer Use Intensity in Congo Basin Countries and Selected Countries of Africa, South America and Asia, 2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 1.16: Yields of Major Commodities in Congo Basin Countries Compared with Yields Obtained in Major Producer Countries, 200  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 1.17: Evolution of the Agricultural Trade Balance, 1994–2007  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 1.18: Changes in Forest Area in Main Regions in Africa on 1990–2010 period  . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 1.19: Urban Population in the Congo Basin Countries, 1995–2010  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 1.20: Spatial Distribution of Deforestation (red) and Forest Degradation (yellow) in the Humid Forests  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 2-1: Tropical Land Area Suitable for (a) Soybean, Sugar Cane (b), and Oil Palm (c)  . . . . 26 Figure 2- 2: Maximum Potential Value of Output (US$/ha) in Tropical Areas  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Figure 2- 3: Water Availability in the Congo Basin Countries (m3/person/year)  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Figure 2- 4: Channels of Transmission of International Crop Demand Increase to Deforestation in Congo Basin  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 viii Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection TABLES Table 1.4: Net Food Trade, 2006  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 1.1: Total Plantation Areas and Share in Total Land under Cultivation, 2008  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Table 1.2: Share of Agricultural Expenditure in National Budget  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Table 1.3: Potential Supply of Non-cultivated Non-forested Low-Population-Density (< 25 persons/km2) Land, Applying an Access to Market Criterion  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 1.5: IFPRI Global Hunger Index 2009  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 1.6: Total Rainforest Areas and Net Annual Deforestation and Forest Degradation Rates in the Rainforest, 1990–2000  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Table 1.7: Changes in Forest Area in Africa and in the Main Negative Contributors to World Total Forest Area, 1990–2010  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 1.8: Rural/Urban Population and Urbanization Trends in the Congo Basin Countries  . . . . 20 Table 2- 1: Potential Land Availability by Country (million ha)  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Table A.1. Policy Shocks Tested with CongoBIOM  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Table A.2: Input Data Used in the CongoBIOM Mode  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 BOXES Box 1-1: Why Is Plantation Development More Important in Cameroon Than in the Other Congo Basin Countries?  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Box 1-2: History of Large-Scale Plantations in the Congo Basin Countries  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Box 1-3: Agriculture in Africa and CAADP  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Box 1-4. Palm Oil Potential in Cameroon  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Box 2-1: The CongoBIOM Model  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Box 2-2: Recent Trends in Large-Scale Agricultural Expansion in Cameroon  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Box 3-1. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Enhanced Food Security, Reduced Vulnerability, and Climate Change Mitigation  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Box 3-2. Partnerships Between Large-Scale Operators and Smallholders  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Box A.1. Underlying Assumptions .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Working Paper 1: Agriculture ix ACRONYMS AGDP agricultural gross domestic product CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CAR Central African Republic CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CEMAC Commission de la Communauté Economique et Monetaire de l’Afrique Centrale CFA Central African franc CGIAR (formerly) Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research COMIFAC Central Africa Forests Commission DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECAM III Troisième Enquête auprès des Ménages au Cameroun ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FLEG Forest Law Enforcement and Governance FLEGT Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Support Programme GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GHI Global Hunger Index ha hectare HFLD High Forest Cover, Low Deforestation HRU homogeneous response unit IFPRI International Forest Policy Research Institute IIASA International Institute for Applied System Analysis IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRAD Institute de Recherche Agricole pour le Dévelopment kg kilogram km kilometer m3 cubic meter MDGs Millennium Development Goals x Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development (African Union) NPCA NEPAP Planning and Coordinating Agency OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ORSTOM Office de la recherche scientifique et technique outre-mer pcAGDP per capita agricultural gross domestic product PES payment(s) for environmental services R&D research and development REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ ReSAKSS Regional Strategic Analysis and Support System SECID South-East Consortium for International Development SODECAO Société de développement du Cacao STABEX Système de Stabilisation des Recettes d’Exportation UNFPA United Nations Population Fund WDIs World Development Indicators WHO World Health Organization WWF World Wildlife Fund Working Paper 1: Agriculture xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Agriculture in the Congo Basin is largely dominated by increasing agricultural yields. Minimal interventions traditional low input/low output subsistence sys- could transform agricultural productivity in these tems. Plantations are not well developed except in countries and increase the resilience of yields to Cameroon. Modernization of the agricultural sector has climate change. been hampered by many factors, including poor road Land availability/suitability. The Congo Basin coun- infrastructure, poor public policies, and neglected R&D tries are estimated to represent about 40 percent functions. of the uncultivated, unprotected land suitable for cultivation in Sub-Saharan Africa and 12 percent of Despite its significance in terms of employment and such land available worldwide contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), the (IIASA 2010). agricultural sector in Congo Basin countries is largely underperforming in comparison with those of other Water availability. Many parts of the world, espe- tropical regions, with poor results for most agricultural cially in developing countries, are expected to indicators (e.g., land productivity, work productivity, use experience water scarcity and stress in the future. of fertilizers, use of improved varieties). As a result, In the context of a changing climate, the Congo and despite huge potential, reliance on food imports is Basin stands out as a sub-region in which water substantial. availability is likely to increase or at least be main- tained. This resilience to climate change could PROMISING PROSPECTS FOR THE provide the Congo Basin countries with a compar- ative advantage at the global level. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR The potential for agricultural development in the Congo HOW COULD THIS AFFECT THE FOREST COVER? Basin is significant. The region is among the areas with the greatest potential in the world for both expand- Over the past decades, deforestation has been mostly ing cultivation and increasing existing yields; market driven by subsistence activities, as more than most of forces, driven by both internal (domestic and regional new agricultural land came at the expense of intact markets) and external drivers (growing international forests. As a result, it is highly correlated to population demand for food and energy) suggest that agriculture density and concentrates around urban centers and will, in the medium and long term, expand. However, other densely populated areas. it remains to be seen whether and to which extent this potential manifests over the course of the next Factors described above suggest that the agricul- decades. The below parameters are expected to posi- ture sector could take off during the next decades. tively influence the agricultural development in Unlocking this potential may lead to greater pressures the Congo Basin. on forests In-depth analytical work along with the IIASA model developed for the Congo Basin countries Productivity gains. The Congo Basin is among the (CongoBIOM), helped better understand some poten- areas in the world with the greatest potential for tial impacts. xii Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Forested versus non-forested lands. While the vast markets. For example, the fact that the Congo majority of suitable land (uncropped, unprotected Basin does not yet produce significant amounts of areas) in the Congo Basin is currently covered by biofuel does not mean that it will not eventually forests, the potential of suitable non-forested lands be affected by the global expansion of biofuels: is also considerable and represents more than the biofuel expansion in other regions of the world area currently under production in most of the could reduce agricultural exports from main countries (i.e., the mean ratio of cultivated area to exporting regions and lead to increased defor- non-forested suitable area is 0.61 for the Congo estation in the Congo Basin through a substitution Basin countries). This means that the Congo Basin effect of import by local production. could almost double its cultivated area without converting any forested areas. RECOMMENDATIONS Increase in land productivity—will it reduce or exacerbate the pressure on forests? Increase Congo Basin countries need to identify new paths that in land productivity is often seen as the most can reconcile their urgent need to transform their agri- promising means to address both the food cultural sectors to feed their populations and potentially production and mitigation challenges. It is com- respond to international market signals with the pres- monly assumed that producing more on the same ervation of their forest capital. Below are listed some amount of land will prevent the need to expand policy recommendations, identified as credible options cultivated areas and thus help reduce forest to limit deforestation while supporting agricultural conversion. However, models show that this logic development in the Congo Basin. These recommen- is unlikely to hold unless certain accompanying dations should be taken as general guidelines to spur measures are put in place. The CongoBIOM model more detailed policy discussions at the country level. suggests that intensification of land production in the Congo Basin will lead to an expansion of ƒƒPrioritize Agricultural Expansion in agricultural land because of a growing demand for Non-forested Areas food and an unconstrained labor force. Productivity ƒƒEnforce Forest Protection and Manage the gains make agricultural activities more profitable Agricultural Frontier and thus tend to increase pressure on forested ƒƒClarify Land Tenure Governance land, which is generally the easiest new land for ƒƒPromote Climate-Smart Agriculture farmers to access. Environmental degradation, land tenure, and customary rights issues associated ƒƒEmpower Smallholder Farmers with large-scale farmland acquisition are additional ƒƒPromote a Sustainable Large-Scale Agribusiness factors driving farmers into forested land. Industry Indirect effects of international agricultural pat- ƒƒFoster Win-Win Partnerships between Large-Scale terns. The Congo Basin is not yet fully integrated Operators and Smallholders into global agricultural markets, with the exception ƒƒDevelop Transport Infrastructure of coffee and cocoa. However, the CongoBIOM ƒƒCreate Positive Incentives and Remove Potential model suggests that the Congo Basin could be Negative Incentives affected by global trends in agricultural commodity ƒƒReinvigorate Research and Development trade despite its marginal contribution to global Working Paper 1: Agriculture xiii INTRODUCTION The Congo Basin represents 70 percent of the The potential for agricultural development in the African continent’s forest cover and constitutes Congo Basin is significant for many reasons. First, a large portion of Africa’s biodiversity. Cameroon, the Congo Basin countries are endowed with much suit- Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of able and available land. Together, these countries have Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of about 40 percent of the uncultivated, unprotected, Congo share the Basin’s ecosystem. It is the second low-population-density land suitable for cultivation largest tropical forest area in the world—of a total sur- in Sub-Saharan Africa and 12 percent of such land face of 530 million hectares (ha) of land, 300 million available worldwide. If only suitable nonforested areas are covered by forests. More than 99 percent of the are included, the Congo Basin still includes about 20 forested area is primary or naturally regenerated forest percent of the land available for agricultural expan- (de Wasseige et al. 2012). The Congo Basin forest sion in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9 percent worldwide performs valuable ecological services, such as flood (Deininger et al. 2011). Second, the region has uncon- control and climate regulation at the local and regional strained water resources, which gives it an edge over levels. The wealth of carbon stored in the Basin’s abun- other areas that may face water scarcity as a result of dant vegetation further serves as a buffer against global climate change. Third, and unsurprisingly, Congo Basin climate change. In all six countries, forestry is a major countries rank among the countries with the greatest economic sector, providing jobs and local subsistence potential in the world for increasing yields. Finally, the from timber and non-timber products, and contributing rapidly urbanizing populations and increasing inter- significantly to export and fiscal revenues. national demands for food and energy could drive a dramatic demand for agricultural products from the Agriculture is a vital yet neglected sector in the Congo Basin. These factors combine to make agricul- Congo Basin. Agriculture is by far the region’s largest ture a very promising sector. employer. In Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, and Equatorial Agricultural development is a central lever to Guinea, more than half of the economically active pop- help people out of poverty, as well as a key driver ulation is engaged in agricultural activities. Agriculture of deforestation. Congo Basin forests are home to is also a significant contributor to GDP, particularly in about 30 million people, who struggle with poverty the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic and strive for a more prosperous life. However, evi- of Congo, and Cameroon. Despite its importance, the dence from other tropical forest regions around the agricultural sector has been neglected and under- world suggests that a conventional path of economic funded for much of the past few decades. Most development usually means rapidly increasing levels agriculture is small-scale, and the sector is dominated of loss of natural forests (the forest transition theory). by traditional subsistence systems, with a few large This negative correlation seems especially pronounced commercial enterprises focused mainly on palm oil in connection with agricultural development (Andersen and rubber. Agricultural productivity in the region is very et al., 2002; López and Galinato 2004; Walker, 1993). low compared with that of other tropical countries, and Future agricultural developments in the Congo Basin overall use of fertilizer is also low. As a result, reliance may well be at the expense of forests. on food imports is substantial and increasing. xiv Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Forest-friendly agricultural development is a results derived from a modeling exercise conducted by challenge for the region. Unlocking the agricultural the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis potential of the Congo Basin could increase pressure (IIASA) that scrutinized national, regional, and interna- on forests, particularly if investments in road infrastruc- tional trends in agricultural sectors and trade, and their ture remove a long-lasting bottleneck to market access. impacts on Congo Basin forests. Increasing agricultural productivity—often seen as a win- win solution that reduces pressure on forests—could The structure of the report is as follows: actually drive more deforestation, A consensus exists that a new development approach needs to be defined ƒƒChapter 1 gives an overview of the agricultural that will reconcile the dire need for more agriculture sector in the six countries, including an analysis of in the Congo Basin with the preservation of the forest the sector’s impact so far on forest cover. capital through a forest-friendly agricultural model. ƒƒChapter 2 describes the prospects for develop- ment of agriculture in the near future and the This report describes some ways forest-friendly agri- potential impacts on forest under a business-as- cultural development could materialize in the Congo usual scenario. Basin. It is one of a series of reports prepared during ƒƒChapter 3 identifies potential key levers in a two-year attempt to analyze and better understand agricultural policy that could enable forest-friendly deforestation dynamics in the Basin. The report pres- agriculture. The chapter builds on the analysis of ents findings related to the agricultural sector in the the previous chapters and recommends priority Congo Basin and its potential impact on forest cover. activities Basin countries can undertake to address It is based on an in-depth analysis of the sector, from the current and future drivers of deforestation. previous trends through future prospects. It builds on Working Paper 1: Agriculture 1 1 CHAPTER 1 Agriculture in the Congo Basin: A Major But Neglected Sector A KEY ECONOMIC SECTOR FOR THE CONGO the Basin (figure 1.2). In Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and BASIN COUNTRIES Equatorial Guinea, more than half of the economically Agriculture is an important segment of the economy, active population is engaged in agricultural activities; especially in terms of employment. Despite the rapid however, all six countries show a declining trend in the growth of the main cities and secondary urban centers share of employment in agriculture. in the Congo Basin, driven by robust rural-urban migra- tion over the past few years, a large proportion of the Agriculture is a significant contributor to GDP, espe- population of the Congo Basin countries continues to cially in the Central African Republic, the Democratic live in rural areas (figure 1.1).1 Most rural households Republic of Congo, and Cameroon. Agriculture’s rely primarily on agricultural activities for their liveli- contribution to GDP remains high in the Central hoods, and agriculture is by far the largest employer in African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo, at 40–50 percent (figure 1.3). However in the 1 Drivers for rural-urban migration in the recent past have not only been Democratic Republic of Congo, an unstable political economic development and related employment opportunities and better ser- context has led to strong variability in the contribu- vices in urban centers but also insecurity in rural areas resulting from conflicts, tion of the agricultural sector to GDP over the past particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic. Figure 1.1: Share of Rural Population in Total Population, 1994–2007 Note: The share of the rural population exceeds 80 60 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, and Equatorial 70 Guinea. In the last, the population appears to 60 be largely unaffected by rural-urban migration, despite the recent oil boom (which began in 50 1994-1996 1995) and the consequent dramatic drop in % 40 1999-2001 agriculture’s relative contribution to GDP (note however that the share of the rural population 30 2007 graphed for that country is based on an 20 estimated total population of 642,000, whereas the latest government census, published in 2004, 10 claimed a total population of 1,015,000.) In Gabon, the vast majority of the population has 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic of World concentrated in urban centers to access public African Republic of Guinea Congo services and participate in an economy largely Republic Congo based on the redistribution of resource extraction revenues. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to Source: FAO 2009a. the Republic of Congo. 2 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.2: Share of Economically Active Population in Agriculture 80 70 60 50 1994-1996 % 40 1999-2001 30 2007 20 10 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic of World African Republic of Guinea Congo Republic Congo Source: FAO 2009a. Figure 1.3: Evolution of Agriculture’s Contribution to GDP, 1988–2008 70 Cameroon 60 Central African 50 Republic 40 Congo, Dem. Rep. 30 Congo, Rep. 20 Equatorial Guinea 10 Gabon 0 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: World Bank 2010b. two decades.2 In the four oil-producing countries Cameroon’s agricultural GDP has increased signifi- (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Republic cantly, while that of the Central African Republic, of Congo), the contribution of agriculture to GDP is the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Gabon has much lower, although it remains around 20 percent stagnated. The average annual growth in Cameroon’s for Cameroon. The contribution of agriculture to GDP agricultural GDP (AGDP) has been quite strong at 4.8 in Equatorial Guinea dropped dramatically during the percent (figure 1.4)—twice the total population growth mid-1990s, owing to a sharp increase in oil revenues rate. Because the population living from agriculture has (total GDP increased by a factor of 60). not significantly changed over the period, the growth rate of the AGDP per capita of agricultural population (pcAGDP, figure 1.5) has been similar. In the Central 2 In the late 1980s to early 1990s, the sharp decline in the Democratic Republic of Congo economy resulted in agriculture representing an increasing African Republic, the AGDP growth has been weaker share of GDP. Agriculture was then severely disrupted by the 1996 civil war. at 2.8 percent per year, but it has exceeded the total The recovery of agriculture’s contribution to GDP following the war was more population growth rate, leading to an increase in the a reflection of the poor overall economic situation than an indication that agri- cultural output was growing. In fact, harvested area reached a peak just before pcAGDP. In Gabon, the AGDP growth rate, at 1.8 the 1996 civil war, then dropped off dramatically, bottoming out in 2002. Since percent, has been lower than the overall population then, it has begun to recover, but at a slow pace. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 3 Figure 1.4: Evolution of AGDP, 1994–2007 Figure 1.5: Evolution of AGDP per Capita of Agricultural Population, 1994–2007 3000 900 2500 800 700 constant 2000 USD million 2000 constant 2000 USD million 600 1500 500 400 1000 300 200 500 100 0 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Republic Gabon Cameroon Central Democratic Republic Gabon African Republic of Congo African Republic of Congo 1994-1996 1999-2001 2007 1994-1996 1999-2001 2007 Source: Calculations from FAO 2009a. Source: Calculations from FAO 2009a. Note: No data available for the Republic of Congo and incomplete data for Note: No data available for the Republic of Congo and incomplete data for Equatorial Guinea. Equatorial Guinea. growth rate. However, as the population living from Equatorial Guinea. Over the same period, another agriculture is reported to have decreased by 1.3 indicator—the index of per capita agricultural produc- percent per year over the period, the pcAGDP has tion3—has stagnated or decreased in all Congo Basin substantially increased. In the Democratic Republic countries with the exception of the Republic of Congo of Congo, stagnation of the AGDP combined with an (figure 1.6). agricultural population growth of 2 percent per year has resulted in a decline in the pcAGDP of 2.1 percent per year. The pcAGDP in Gabon is the highest in the region, owing to a very limited rural population; it is 3 The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) index of agricultural produc- estimated to be almost 14 times higher than that of tion shows the relative level of the aggregate volume of agricultural production for each year in comparison with the base period 1999–2001. Aggregate vol- the Democratic Republic of Congo, almost 5 times ume is based on the sum of price-weighted quantities of different agricultural higher than that of the Central African Republic, and commodities produced after deductions of quantities used as seed and feed 2 to 3 times higher than those of Cameroon and weighted in a similar manner. Thus, it represents disposable production for any use except as seed and feed.  Figure 1.6: Congo Basin Countries’ per Capita Agricultural Production Index, 1994–2007 (1999-2001=100) 140 120 1994-1996 100 1999-2001 2003 80 2004 60 2005 40 2006 20 2007 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic African Republic Guinea of Congo Republic of Congo Source: FAO 2009a. 4 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection sold in the market.6 Cultural systems are highly inte- DOMINATED BY TRADITIONAL grated, with combinations of various crops and often SUBSISTENCE SYSTEMS multiple planting seasons, in an effort to guarantee Agriculture in the Congo Basin is still largely domi- household food security while mitigating risks (climate, nated by traditional low input/low output subsistence diseases, etc.) and optimizing land productivity. systems, and tremendous gaps exist between actual and potential yields. This situation is directly linked to Shifting cultivation in the forest zone may become long-lasting state disengagement, especially in R&D unsustainable because of population growth. As and extension, and poor infrastructure. In addition, the population density increases above 10–15 persons poor business climate has handicapped both large and per square km, the length of the fallow period must small-scale investments from the private sector. be shortened, and as fallows shorten, the soil fertility of cleared land declines, resulting in reduced harvests, The Congo Basin has two types of plantations. A distress from food insecurity, conflicts, and some few large commercial plantations, usually owned by outmigration to other areas or urban centers. Studies multinational companies, are engaged in palm oil show that the critical threshold of population density and rubber production (and bananas, in Cameroon), that results in a complete breakdown of the shifting while smallholder plantations primarily produce cocoa, cultivation system is 20–30 persons/km2 (3–5 ha coffee, and palm oil. The agricultural sectors in the per person) (Tollens 2010). The most densely pop- Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea do not ulated areas in the rainforest of Cameroon and the have large commercial plantations. Coffee and cocoa Democratic Republic of Congo (e.g., the Lisala and are predominantly smallholder crops in the Congo Bumba regions) have already reached a population Basin, most actively in Cameroon. Most of the palm oil density of 30 persons/km2. This threshold, once production is artisanal in the Central African Republic, achieved, usually triggers migration (mainly to urban Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of Congo, and the centers) or transition to a more efficient agricultural Democratic Republic of Congo (85 percent in the last). system (through changes in practices). In Cameroon, industrial production of palm oil used to predominate, but artisanal production is expanding Smallholders and Large Commercial in response to the increasing demand for vegetable Plantations oil from the growing urban population, while industrial In the Congo Basin countries, the area under planta- plantations are not maintained and some tions has either stagnated or decreased; in the region are abandoned. as a whole, it is estimated to have decreased by about 10 percent over the period (figure 1.7). As a result, the Slash-and-Burn Agriculture share of plantation area in total cultivated land (table In the slash-and-burn system, smallholder families 1.1) remains rather modest: 10 percent or less in most generally cultivate a maximum of 2–3 ha of traditional Congo Basin countries. The percentage in Cameroon crops on a 2-year cultivation and 7–10-year fallow is 17.4 percent for historical reasons (an important tra- pattern.4 The most demanding crops are grown first: dition of both smallholder and commercial plantations, maize with groundnuts, taro, and yams, generally see box 1.1); in Equatorial Guinea it is 46 percent followed by cassava and plantains.5 These crops are for structural reasons (very limited overall amount of grown mostly for own consumption, with surpluses cultivated land). 4 Because of the prevalence of the tse-tse fly, livestock production is marginal and limited to small ruminants, poultry, and pigs, essentially for own use. 5 Some other crops—such as beans, gourds, and vegetables—are grown in home gardens, along with fruit trees. 6 In some areas, upland rice is also grown as a cash crop. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 5 Figure 1.7: Evolution of Total Plantation Areas, 1998–2008 1600 1400 Note: Although plantation development over the past decade has been particularly important in Cameroon, 1200 especially as regards cocoa (area has increased by 40 percent), bananas (+ 65 percent), and to a lesser extent 1000 oil palm (+ 13 percent), the total area 1998 under plantation in that country has stagnated because of the dramatic 800 thousands ha 2003 drop in coffee areas (-60 percent). In 2008 the Republic of Congo, areas under 600 coffee and bananas are reported to have increased by about 130 percent and 60 percent, respectively, leading to 400 an increase of about 25 percent in the total plantation area. However, that area remains at very modest levels. 200 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic African Republic Guinea of Congo Republic of Congo Source: Calculations from FAOSTAT 2011. Table 1.1: Total Plantation Areas and Share in Total Land under Cultivation, 2008 Average annual growth rate Total land under Share of plantations Total plantation area 1998–2008 cultivation in total land under (ha) (%) (ha) cultivation (%) Cameroon 817,000 0 4,685,000 17.4 Central African Republic 34,900 -3.7 965,000 3.6 Democratic Republic of Congo 374,780 -2.7 5,860,000 6.4 Equatorial Guinea 40,000 -4.4 87,000 46.0 Gabon 21,200 -1.1 209,000 10.1 Republic of Congo 30,950 2.3 282,000 11.0 Total Congo Basin 1,318,830 -1.1 12,088,000 10.9 Source: Calculations from FAOSTAT 2011. Box 1-1: Why Is Plantation Development More Important in Cameroon Than in the Other Congo Basin Countries? Cameroon has a long tradition of growing cocoa and coffee as export crops, dating back to the colonial period. In addition, it is a politically stable country with the highest rural population density in the region, the best rural infrastructure, the best investment climate, and by far the most supportive government, with significant public expenditure allocated to the agricultural sector and public institutions dedicated to the promotion of specific agricultural value chains (e.g., Société de Développement du Cacoa for cocoa, SODECAO). This more favorable context has resulted in more investments by smallholders and commercial operators alike. 6 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Coffee and Cocoa Plantations drying required for the cocoa beans uses significant Coffee and cocoa are overwhelmingly smallholder pro- amounts of fuel wood, which of course encourages ductions in the Congo Basin rainforest, on small plan- forest degradation. More efficient drying ovens have tations of 0.5–3 ha.7 Cocoa and coffee production is of been introduced and promoted using STABEX funding particular importance in Cameroon but less important from the European Commission. (and more and more so) in the other countries (figures 1.8 and 1.9). Coffee plantation areas are highly sensitive to world market prices. As a result of depressed market prices In Cameroon, where an estimated 600,000 cocoa during the first half of 2000, coffee production farmers are operating, cocoa development is on the (Robusta and Arabica) declined dramatically in all rise, promoted by SODECAO (the national specialized Congo Basin countries.8 In Cameroon, the area under parastatal agency) and the Ministry of Agriculture, and coffee is reported to have declined by 60 percent, and financed through a levy on cocoa exports. Cocoa area in the region as a whole it declined by half. However, is reported to have increased by 140,000 ha (about increases in coffee areas can be seen as world prices 40 percent) in Cameroon over the past decade, while pick up again. it has decreased in all other countries. The artificial 7 There were a few large commercial coffee and cocoa plantations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but almost all of them were abandoned after the 8 Except in the Republic of Congo, where coffee area is reported to have first Zairianisation (expropriation) in 1973–74 and the pillages of 1991 and 1993. more than doubled over the past 10 years. Figure 1.8: Evolution of Cocoa Harvested Areas, 1998–2008 600 500 400 thousands ha 300 1998 2003 2008 200 100 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic Total African Republic Guinea of Congo Congo Republic of Congo Basin Figure 1.9: Evolution of Coffee Harvested Areas, 1998–2008 600 500 400 thousands ha 300 1998 2003 200 2008 100 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic Total African Republic Guinea of Congo Congo Republic of Congo Basin Source: Calculations from FAOSTAT 2011. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 7 Agro-industrial plantations (oil palm, rubber, the Republic of Congo.9 In Cameroon and Gabon, all and banana) oil palm and rubber plantations currently in operation Unlike coffee and cocoa, oil palm is cultivated in both were created in the 1960s to 1980s as parastatal com- smallholder plantations (100 percent of production in panies supported by international donors. They were the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and privatized as part of the structural adjustment process the Republic of Congo; 85 percent in the Democratic in the 1990s and early 2000s. In the Democratic Republic of Congo) and large estates operated by Republic of Congo, oil palm and rubber plantations multinational companies (Gabon, Cameroon). Figures have always been run by private companies. 1.10 and 1.11 show that the oil palm and rubber plantations are mainly located in Cameroon, the Cameroon also has sizable and expanding commercial Democratic Republic of Congo, and Gabon, and that banana plantations (figure 1.12). The produced palm there are no large, active oil palm or rubber plantations in the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, or 9 In the Republic of Congo, the Ouesso Sangopalm plantation is abandoned. Figure 1.10: Evolution of Oil Palm Harvested Areas, 1998–2008 300 250 200 ‘000 ha 150 1998 2003 100 2008 50 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic Total African Republic Guinea of Congo Congo Republic of Congo Basin Figure 1.11: Evolution of Rubber Harvested Areas, 1998–2008 100 90 80 70 60 ‘housands ha 50 1998 40 2003 30 2008 20 10 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic Total African Republic Guinea of Congo Congo Republic of Congo Basin Figure 1.12: Evolution of Banana Harvested Areas, 1998–2008 250 200 150 thousands ha 1998 100 2003 2008 50 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic Total African Republic Guinea of Congo Congo Republic of Congo Basin Source: Calculations from FAOSTAT 2011. 8 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Box 1-2: History of Large-Scale Plantations in the Congo Basin Countries Gabon: AgroGabon was privatized to the Belgian plantation in the Congo Basin. Rubber plantations plantation company SIAT S.A., which also owns followed soon after that and were quite important plantations in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria. It during World War II, when they were the only source comprises a 100,000 ha cattle ranch with 6,000 an- of rubber for the Allied Forces in Europe. Most of the imals, situated in a savannah valley surrounded by plantations were owned by the conglomerate Société rainforest and surprisingly free of tse-tse flies. SIAT Générale de Belgique, which sold them in the 1980s, plans to expand to 25,000 animals. It also runs an when Suez took over, to the Blattner Group. The other 8,500 ha oil palm plantation for the local market, main plantation company was Lever Brothers, with including soap production, as well as 10,000 ha of Plantations et Huileries du Congo (PHC), which sold rubber in a nucleus estate (former OZI), with 2,000 ha Lokutu, Yaligimba, and Yatolema plantations to the under smallholders. The company intends to expand Canadian investors group Feronia. on the existing concession, replanting old plantations Together, Blattner and PHC have 32,000 ha of oil using its own generated cash flow. The main constraint palm, but 40 percent of the land is abandoned, is access to labor, which is mostly of Cameroonian or following the pillages of 1991 and 1993. Current total Sahelian origin. No new plantations are planned and industrial production is estimated at 25,000 tons of no other foreign investments in plantation agriculture palm oil and 2,000 tons of palm kernel oil. Regarding or livestock ranching are expected in Gabon; there is rubber, production is actually less than 10,000 tons. plenty of available land, but finding labor is difficult. Recent figures indicate 5,000 tons, of which about Cameroon: All parastatal plantations have been 2,000 tons are used locally for tire production (Cobra privatized except some belonging to the Cameroon brand, owned by Blattner group). In the oil palm-rub- Development Corporation (CDC) that are still in the ber sector, some newcomers are coming to the process of privatization (for more than 10 years now). Democratic Republic of Congo, reviving abandoned Existing plantations are doing quite well, replanting plantations and replanting old ones. This is the case and expanding where possible. The main problems for SOCFIN-INTERCULTURES, which acquired the are land ownership (land can only be leased for large Brabanta plantation near Ilebo, and the planned 99 years) and fiscal harassment by the state, including Chinese investment in oil palm plantations by ZTE. corruption. All palm oil produced is for the domestic Republic of Congo: The Ouesso Sangopalm plantation market or export to neighboring countries, including is abandoned. The Italian oil company ENI has a plan Chad and Gabon. New projects for the expansion of to develop 5,000 ha of palm oil in the savannah lands oil palm plantations in Cameroon are at various stages in the Niari and Pool Departments (Republic of Congo of development. 2011–R-PP). Democratic Republic of Congo: The country never had Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea: No large state-owned oil palm or rubber plantations. Two small oil palm or rubber plantations are active in the Central cocoa plantations were established in the 1980s. African Republic or Equatorial Guinea. In 1912, Lever Brothers established its first oil palm Source: Tollens 2010. oil is for local consumption (soap and vegetable oil), many difficulties, including lack of interest among small- while rubber and bananas are exported. holders, poor feeder roads, and poor quality production. Large-scale plantations are enclaves of the modern sector within the traditional sector, with few or no inter- The Congo Basin has not yet experienced the expan- relations (see Box 1.2). Only Gabon has tried to develop sion of large-scale plantations that has occurred in other a nucleus estate or “outgrower scheme,� based on the tropical regions. The Basin countries have so far been former OZIs (Opérations Zonales Intégrées). SIAT Gabon spared the phenomenon of large-scale land acquisition operates such a nucleus estate for rubber but encounters and conversion for agriculture and biofuel projects that Working Paper 1: Agriculture 9 has been observed in other regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Amazonia). The few current operators Box 1-3: Agriculture in Africa and CAADP in Cameroon, Gabon, and the Democratic Republic of CAADP (Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Congo report that they do not plan to invest in new Development Programme) was established as part plantations; they intend to extend existing concessions of the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s and rehabilitate old or abandoned ones (Tollens 2010). Development (NEPAD) Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA) and endorsed by the African Union Assembly in July 2003. NEPAD is a radically new intervention, spearheaded by African leaders, to LITTLE SUPPORT FROM PUBLIC POLICIES address the main challenges facing the continent. CAADP is considered one of NEPAD’s most import- Limited Allocation of Resources ant subactivities, because Africa is largely agrarian. Until the late 1980s, as in almost all Sub-Saharan The goal of CAADP is to help African countries reach and sustain a higher path of economic African countries, the negative impact of public resource growth through agricultural-led development that scarcity in the Congo Basin was aggravated by fiscal reduces hunger and poverty and enables food and and trade policies that strongly discriminated against nutrition security and growth in exports through agriculture, discouraging investments from both local better strategic planning and increased investment farmers and foreign operators.10 With the exception in the sector. Through CAADP, African governments of Cameroon, where some supportive policies were are committed to raising agricultural GDP by at implemented, the Congo Basin countries did not set the least 6 percent per year. This is the minimum basic conditions to unfold their full agricultural potential. required if Africa is to achieve agriculture-led socioeconomic growth. To achieve this, the govern- ments have agreed to increase public investment In the 1990s, all countries went through the structural in agriculture to a minimum of 10 percent of their adjustment process, with associated dramatic cuts in national budgets—substantially more than the 4–5 public expenditures to reduce the substantial external percent they commit today. Thus far, nine countries and internal deficits of their economies. The agricul- have met this goal: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, tural sector was one of the most strongly affected by Guinea, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. budgetary restrictions: Fertilizer and pesticide subsidies However, a number of governments—including (ranging from 60 to 100 percent in Cameroon) were Zambia, Kenya, and Rwanda—have already boosted removed, extension services drastically reduced, rural their agricultural budgets significantly. Recently, 10 countries achieved or exceeded the 6 percent infrastructure neglected, and R&D almost abandoned. CAADP goal: Angola, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, At the same time, major reforms occurred in the Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and export-oriented agricultural sector (such as coffee and Uganda. Ghana and Sierra Leone are close. But cocoa), with the state disengaging and liquidating the these improvements are not enough, as they will national marketing boards for these crops. not put Africa on the path to achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of halving Recently, the Congo Basin countries have had a luke- poverty and the number of malnourished people warm response to the continent-wide NEPAD (African by 2015; rather, the goals will be achieved within 10 years. In the Central Africa region, the Economic Union New Partnership for Africa’s Development) ini- Community of Central African States (ECCAS) is tiative in favor of agriculture. The Comprehensive Africa coordinating the CAADP process with its member Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP, see states: ECCAS will prepare a regional agriculture box 1.3 and figure 1.13) targets an annual 6 percent investment plan, while member states will prepare national agricultural investment plans. 10 It is estimated that in the 1980s, net taxation of the agricultural Sources: www.resakss.org – www.nepad-caadp.net - CAADP Multidonor sector in Sub-Saharan Africa—through overvalued exchange rates, Trust Fund World Bank Status Report (as of November 15, 2010 controlled input and output prices, export taxes, and so on—averaged 29 percent and stood at 46 percent for exportables (World Bank 2009). 10 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.13: CAADP Implementation Progress, January 2001 Implementation Status Compacts signed Countries expected to sign their Compacts first half of 2011 (incl. Seychelles) Countries advancing through pre-Compact CAADP implementation Newly engaged countries — CAADP Multidonor Trust Fund World Bank Status Report (as of November 15, 2010) Sources: www.resakss.org—www.nepad-caadp.net­ agricultural growth through, in particular, greater govern- Table 1.2: Share of Agricultural Expenditure in National Budget ment support to the sector. The lukewarm response suggests that the governments of the Congo Basin Percent Year reported countries do not consider agriculture to be a critical Cameroon 4.5 2006 cornerstone to achieve development, food security, and Central African Republic 2.5 — poverty alleviation (see table 1.2). While 22 countries Democratic Republic of Congo 1.8 2005 have already signed their CAADP compacts and made Equatorial Guinea — — substantial progress in achieving their commitments, Gabon 0.8 2004 none of the Congo Basin countries has done so. Republic of Congo 0.9 2006 Source: ReSAKSS 2011; no data available for Equatorial Guinea. The natural resources curse (Collier 2007), also Note: Public expenditure in agriculture in all six countries is lagging far behind the 10 percent of total national budget targeted by the CAADP initiative, primarily known as the paradox of plenty, is arguably a major affecting extension services, basic infrastructure (feeder roads), and R&D. Trying reason why the agricultural sector has received so to determine total agricultural R&D public sector spending in the Congo Basin countries based on the ASTI IFPRI database is difficult, because most of the little attention over the past decades. Because they Congo Basin countries do not report data, in contrast to Western or Eastern Africa are richly endowed with natural resources—particularly countries. The only data available are for Gabon (2001) and the Republic of Congo (2001) in 2005 USD: respectively 3.8 and 4.7 million, which are among the lowest nonrenewable resources, including oil and miner- R&D public budgets in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also known that the Central African als—the Congo Basin countries tend to neglect their Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea spend very little on agricultural research. Only Cameroon in Central Africa has a performing agriculture and import most of their food needs. In national agricultural research institute (IRAD, Institut de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement) with about 200 researchers in 10 research stations and minimal addition to policymakers’ lack of interest, the boom in operating funds. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 11 extractive industries and associated revenues generates individual and absolute. It is inherited from the French discriminatory conditions against other productive eco- civil code, imported into the region through colonial- nomic sectors, including a decline in competitiveness ism in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.13 The caused by the appreciation of the real exchange rate traditional system, on the other hand, perceives tenure as massive amounts of resources enter the economy. rights as collective and relative in time and space. For Overvalued exchange rates penalize agricultural exports example, a tree can belong to a clan during harvest- while imports are in fact subsidized, thus discouraging ing season and belong to another clan in blossom investments in agriculture11. season, and land is defined by its function rather than by geographic delimitation: Agricultural land does not However, recent events signal a heightened interest have the same role as a forest area used for prayer in the agricultural sector in most of the Congo Basin (Karsenty and Assemble 2010, p. 6). Traditionally, countries; for example, the medium- to long-term strat- the land is an object of prayer, because it represents egies for development prepared by these countries, in a direct link to the ancestors. Consequently, it is not which agriculture is identified as one of the economic perceived as a purchasable material good but rather as pillars for development and growth.12 Interestingly, a collective heritage (Kouassigan 1966). The traditional these strategies cover both commercial and subsis- system still predominates in rural areas, whereas in tence agriculture as complementary segments of urban areas the positive law system has imposed the sector. itself. The two systems have a difficult time coexisting, and this duality increases uncertainty for investors in Weak Land Tenure Security agricultural projects and tends to incentivize informal, Current land tenure schemes are not conducive to sus- short-term agricultural exploitation. tainable grassroots forest management in Congo Basin countries. Outside of commercial logging concessions, forests are considered free access areas under state PARALYZED BY POOR INFRASTRUCTURE ownership and are not tagged with property rights. Moreover, tenure laws in most Congo Basin countries The transportation system in the Basin is characterized directly link forest clearing (mise en valeur) with land by poor quality. The Road Transport Quality Index was property recognition and thus create an incentive to calculated for all Sub-Saharan Africa countries and nor- convert forested lands into farmland. Current land ten- malized to 100 for the highest quality road transport, ure laws should be adjusted to separate land property in South Africa.14 Figure 1.14 shows the low rankings of recognition from forest clearing. the Congo Basin countries. The dual land tenure system in the Congo Basin Transport costs are extremely high in the Congo Basin increases uncertainty and inhibits investment. One countries, and road infrastructure is very poor. A lot of major problem is that land tenure is characterized by potentially suitable land in the Basin is not converted a strong, unresolved duality between the positive law into production, as the net profit is likely to be negative system and the traditional tenure rights system. The once transport costs are taken into account (Deininger positive law system understands land tenure rights as 13 Given the totally different nature of traditional land tenure rights, colonialists did not recognize the system and declared the land terra nullis. 11 This is the case in the CEMAC countries, where the CFA franc has a fixed Consequently, they allocated land titles to arriving colonialists and imported exchange rate to the euro.In the Democratic Republic of Congo, between 2003 their absolute and individual understanding of property. and 2007, the local currency (FC) was pegged to the U.S. dollar at around 14 The Road Transport Quality Index is calculated from a formula combining 500 FC = US$1. The Democratic Republic of Congo let its currency decline the following parameters: Q = road quality index for a country; P = percentage against the U.S. dollar, and the exchange rate is now close to 1,000 FC = US$1. of roads that are paved in a country; G = GDP per capita in a country (an 12 The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Cinq Chantiers, Republic of Congo’s index of capacity to maintain roads); and C = the World Bank’s Country Policy Vision 2025 Pays Emergent, Cameroon’s Vision 2025, and Gabon’s Emergent, and Institutional Capacity Index of transparency, accountability, and corruption 2025. in a country (a proxy for delays and costs inflicted on truckers). 12 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.14: Road Transport Quality Indices and Road Density for Sub-Saharan and Congo Basin Countries 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Gambia Sudan Togo Senegal Nigeria Swaziland Ghana Namibia Lesotho Zambia Benin Eritrea Guinea Mozambique Burkina Faso Malawi Gabon Djibouti Cameroon Mauritania Mali Kenya Angola Ethiopia Congo Rep. Guinea Bissau Somalia Rwanda Niger Burundi Uganda Sierra Leone Liberia Equatorial Guinea Tanzania Central African Republic Congo, Dem. Rep. Chad Côte d’Ivoire and Byerlee 2011).15 As shown in table 1.3, Latin of the suitable non-forested land is less than six hours America has a great advantage infrastructure-wise, with from a major market; In the Central African Republic more than 75 percent of its non-forested suitable land the proportion is 16 percent (1.3 out of 7.9 million ha). less than six hours from a market town. Consequently, despite Latin America’s having about 40 percent less Poor road infrastructure is a major obstacle to agricul- land available than Sub-Saharan Africa, the regions tural modernization. The extremely poor market access have roughly the same amount of suitable non-for- throughout the region, along with limited storage and ested land (about 94 million ha) when access to mar- processing capacities, has made a transition from ket is taken into account. The situation is even worse in subsistence agriculture to a more intensive, market-ori- the Congo Basin countries. In the Democratic Republic ented agriculture next to impossible. In addition, while of Congo, only 33 percent (7.6 out of 22.5 million ha) the Congo Basin countries are making plans to rehabili- tate their transport infrastructure (see companion report 15 The IIASA model identifies potentially suitable and accessible land, comput- on transport), they are unlikely to improve the feeder ing production cost estimates to arrive at the net profits rather than the reve- roads in the short term; these roads will remain a major nues. Possibly suitable land was further classified on the basis of travel time to the next significant market, defined as a city of at least 50,000 inhabitants, with obstacle to market access for rural populations living a cut-off of six hours to market (IIASA 2010). Table 1.3: Potential Supply of Non-cultivated Non-forested Low-Population-Density (< 25 persons/km2) Land, Applying an Access to Market Criterion Total area Area < 6 hours to market % Area   (million ha) (million ha) < 6 hours to market Sub-Saharan Africa 201.5 94.9 47.1 Latin America and Caribbean 123.3 94.0 76.2 Eastern Europe and Central Asia 52.4 43.7 83.4 East and South Asia 14.3 3.3 23.1 Middle East and North Africa 3.0 2.6 86.7 Rest of world 51.0 24.6 48.2 Total 445.6 263.1 59.0 Source: Deininger et al. 2011, based on the work of Fischer and Shah (IIASA) 2010. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 13 in remote areas. Feeder roads in the humid forest are very low: only 7–10 tons/ha of fresh cassava roots difficult to maintain under wet conditions and in many after one to two years of cultivation. cases are impassable during the rainy season. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, river transport is one The use of fertilizers and pesticides is among the of the most efficient means of transport. However, it lowest in Africa. Fertilizer use in the Basin averages only works intermittently, depending on water levels. In less than 2 kg/ha, with the exception of Cameroon and addition, limited storage and processing capacities pre- Gabon, where 7–10 kg/ha are reported to be applied vent farmers from waiting for the dry season to access (figure 1.15). Subsidies to chemical inputs were gener- markets and sell their products. As a consequence, ally removed during the structural adjustment process most farmers are completely isolated from potential in the 1990s. Subsistence agricultural systems have markets to sell their production and purchase inputs, very limited marketable surpluses and thus limited cash and thereby cut off from participation in the broader revenues to pay for purchased inputs. Moreover, poor economy that could foster competition and growth. access to markets owing to limited road infrastructure Poor road infrastructure and administrative difficulties is a further barrier for most farmers to buy chemicals, (particularly proliferation of roadblocks) have been unless a farmer organization is able to facilitate the major obstacles to the development of regional trade. process. Mechanization is nearly nonexistent, and most of the work is done with hand tools (e.g., hoe, machete, axes). AN UNDERPERFORMING SECTOR Low Productivity Low Reliance on Inputs Productivity in the Congo Basin is very low compared The reliance on vegetatively propagated crops consid- with that of countries in other tropical areas for most erably slows the dissemination of improved varieties. commodities grown, either staples or cash crops Most important crops at the smallholder level are (figure 1.16: a–f). The only exception is palm oil pro- vegetatively propagated (cassava, plantains, taro, yams, duction in Cameroon, with observed yields among the and bananas). Vegetative propagation implies very highest in the world and comparable to those of the low multiplication rates; for example, 1 ha of cassava leader countries for that commodity. produces planting material (cassava cuttings) for only 10–12 ha, which considerably slows the potential Increased Dependence on Imports development and diffusion of new varieties and is thus Agricultural trade balances have deteriorated. Except a major constraint for productivity improvement. In the in the Central African Republic, where agricultural Democratic Republic of Congo, where cassava mosaic import and export values have changed little around disease (Uganda type) is a problem, production and the equilibrium over the past 15 years, the agricultural distribution of improved cassava varieties have been trade balance has severely deteriorated in all other supported with more than US$50 million spent since countries of the Congo Basin (figure 1.17). In the 2002; however, according to the International Institute Democratic Republic of Congo, agricultural exports of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and FAO-supported project declined by about two-thirds over the period, while to REAFOR (Reviving Agriculture and Forestry research imports more than doubled. In Equatorial Guinea, in the Democratic Republic of Congo) project, only exports stagnated while imports increased eightfold. about 15 percent of all cassava grown is now under While Cameroon, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo improved varieties.16 In the meantime, new diseases— experienced a robust growth of their exports, their such as the cassava root scale and brown streak dis- imports were multiplied almost fourfold for the first ease—have spread, which keeps average cassava yields two and twofold for the third, leading to a degrada- tion of the agricultural trade balance for them as well. 16 Program support provided by IITA, FAO, USAID, SECID, and others. 14 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.15: Fertilizer Use Intensity in Congo Basin Countries and Selected Countries of Africa, South America anwd Asia, 2008 Democratic Republic of Congo 0.85 Republic of Congo 1.00 Uganda 2.40 Ghana 3.90 Tanzania 5.21 Rwanda 6.85 Cameroon 7.14 Ethiopia 7.21 Côte d’Ivoire 7.49 Angola 7.61 Mali 8.81 Gabon 9.62 Nigeria 12.29 Zimbabwe 27.04 Kenya 30.42 South Africa 46.64 Zambia Africa 19.23 Argentina 37.63 Brazil 147.57 South America 115.74 Thailand 105.54 Indonesia 112.12 Vietnam 191.76 Malaysia 220.67 Asia 179.78 World 106.00 0 50 100 150 200 250 Kg of nutrients (N, P2O5, and K2O) per ha Source: FAOSTAT 2011. Note: Fertilizer use intensity was obtained by dividing total fertilizer consumption by total area of arable land and permanent crops. No data are available for fertilizer consumption in the Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea. Cameroon is the only country in the Congo Basin that thus a high vulnerability to price fluctuations on the has a positive agricultural trade balance, thanks to its international food market. strong smallholder production of cocoa and coffee and its sizable plantations of rubber and export bananas. In All Congo Basin countries except the Central view of the structural problems of domestic production, African Republic are net importers of food, includ- the negative agricultural trade balance and the high ing Cameroon.17 Statistics from FAO show that food dependence on imports are likely to worsen in the commodity imports are increasing rapidly and that coming years. A negative balance exposes a country to a very inelastic demand for agricultural products and 17 “Food� includes all agricultural commodities used for human consumption. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 15 Figure 1.16: Yields of Major Commodities in Congo Basin Countries Compared with Yields Obtained in Major Producer Countries, 2009 25 6 Cassava 5 Maize 20 4 15 tons/ha tons/ha 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 3) ) ) ) 4) ) ) 3) 0) ) 8) . d( 2 a( 3 il ( 5 a( 6 a( 1 25 .. ( 4 19 45 31 58 (2 (8 (7 (6 (5 71 c.. i z n i o ( . n ( n ( . ( a ( a( ina ca ia il ( ico ia (3 (9 .( (9 bli an ne s Br a ha ige r ng bli c oo bo n.. ine tin fri es az ex Ind on on n.. go pu ail do G Co pu er Ga a ge n Ch A n Br er o b ca n e Th N Re ric Gu Ar ut h- do M Ga fri Co cR In of Ca m lA f ria l In Ca m lA f ti lic tic So ra co ra ub ra n tra ato nt ubli oc p oc Ce Eq u Ce ep De m Re m R De 2.5 0.9 Coffee 0.8 Cocoa 2 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.5 tons/ha tons/ha 1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0 0.1 ) ) 1) ) ) 4) 8) 5) 9) ) ) 0 (2 (3 il ( (4 (6 (6 (2 (4 (4 53 25 ) ) ) ) ) 5) 2) ) ) ) 2) m bia az sia ia on ... ea ... o( n( (2 (1 (4 (3 (6 il ( (3 32 29 47 (5 t na m Br ne iop b lic in an ng oo sia ire ria a na on az ... g o( e a( n( ... Vie olo o Eth Ga b Gu fri c o er on e vo ge Gh er o Br bli c on uin ab o n C Ind pu l fC m d’I Ni ica Re ria lA o Ca Ind te Ca m pu of C lG G fr tic ra lic Cô Re ria lA ra ato nt ub tic lic to tra oc Eq u Ce Re p cra pu b ua n m o Re Eq Ce De m De 25 3.5 Palm oil 3 Rubber (natural) 20 2.5 15 2 tons/ha tons/ha 10 1.5 1 5 0.5 0 0 ) 4) 8) 1) ) 4) ) 7) ) ) ) 5) (1 ) 3) (5 ) (2 ) 4) 6) 8) 6) 2) 41 ) 5) 8) (3 ) (7 e( e( d( (2 (1 21 (2 26 (3 (9 (2 ia (1 bia ia d( e a( (2 a (3 (3 .. .( (1 ir e( ia in es Ind oir an sia on n( lic g o( sia ria ... s n s an uin ng o ine n ng o ige r v il e o b on ala y ge bli c lay er oo lom ne ail o bo an d’Ivo ipp d’I ha on er o ab pu Ni a Co Ind o Th G fC lG u Ga fri c fC o N Ph il te T Ind m G e of C M pu M Ca m Ne w co ria lA co te Cô Ca nR lic Re a li to tra li Cô ri ca b tic pu ub ua en ub Af pu cra Pa Re p Eq C Re p ra l Re m o nt De Ce FAOSTAT. 2012. http://faostat.fao.org/, FAO, Rome (accessed March 2012).Note: The figure next to each country name is the country world rank for the production of that commodity in 2008. Figure 1.17: Evolution of the Agricultural Trade Balance, 1994–2007 500 400 300 Source: FAO 2009a. 200 Note: The Central African Republic’s trade balance 100 oscillated around the equilibrium over that 1994-1996 0 period (-4 in 1994–1996, US$ million 1999-2001 +1 in 1999–2001 and +5 in -100 2007), Equatorial Guinea’s 2007 was slightly negative in 1994–1996 (-5) and -200 200 1999–2001 (-8). Cameroon Central Democratic Equatorial Gabon Republic African Republic Guinea of Congo -300 Republic of Congo -400 -500 -600 16 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection these countries rely more and more on imports to fill Poor Human Development Indicators their basic food needs (table 1.4). A large proportion Poor agricultural sector performance has direct effects of these rapidly increasing imports reflect urban-based on human development indicators, for the country as shifts in consumption patterns toward more cereals a whole and for the agricultural population in particular. (wheat and rice) and fewer roots, tubers, and coarse Poor performance directly affects the welfare of the grains; more animal proteins (chicken and eggs); and farmers but also that of consumers, as reflected by low more readily prepared convenience foods. Rice is the health indicators. The vast majority of rural house- fastest increasing food commodity import, growing at a holds depend on agriculture to cover their food needs rate of about 7 percent per year (double the popula- and generate cash revenues. Although most of the tion growth). Wheat and wheat flour imports are large Congo Basin countries are richly endowed with natural and growing because of the bread-based culture in resources, the food security situation in most of them the cities. is a matter of concern (table 1.5). The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI’s) Global Hunger Particularly striking are the large and rapidly increasing Index (GHI) evaluates the global situation of a coun- imports of poultry, eggs, and fish, despite the potential try in terms of its vulnerability to hunger. It ranks 84 to produce these commodities locally. The large poultry among developing and transitional countries combining imports, especially in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and three equally weighted indicators: (1) the proportion the Republic of Congo—despite border tariffs (35 per- of people who are calorie-deficient or undernourished, cent in the Democratic Republic of Congo)—reflect which is a key indicator of hunger; (2) the prevalence the shortage and high cost of maize and soybeans for of underweight in children under the age of five, which animal feed in these countries as well as the lesser is a measure of childhood malnutrition, children being risks associated with imports. Surprisingly, all countries the most vulnerable to hunger; and (3) the under-five are also large net importers of vegetable oil, especially mortality rate, which measures the proportion of child refined palm oil from Asia, and sugar. deaths caused mainly by malnutrition and disease. Countries are ranked on a 100-point scale, with 0 and Table 1.4: Net Food Trade, 2006 100 being the best and worst possible scores, respec- Country % of GDP Country % of GDP tively. Only Gabon does relatively better in that respect. Cameroon -0.7 Equatorial Guinea — Farming households are among the most vulnerable CAR -0.5 Gabon -2.3 socioeconomic groups. Poverty prevalence is often DRC -4.9 Republic of Congo -2.6 highest among farming households and, in some Source: FAO 2009b. Table 1.5: IFPRI Global Hunger Index 2009 Rank Global Hunger Index Qualification Cameroon 44 17.90 Serious CAR 75 28.10 Alarming DRC 84 39.10 Extremely alarming Equatorial Guinea — — — Gabon 13 6.90 Moderate Republic of Congo 41 15.40 Serious Source: IFPRI 2009. Note: No data are available for Equatorial Guinea. The 2009 GHI is based on data for the 2002–2007 period. Therefore, it only partially reflects the consequences of recent increases in food and energy prices and does not account for the negative effects of the global financial crisis on poor households. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 17 cases, has increased over the past few years. The higher in Southeast Asia. In comparison, Brazil is esti- most recent household survey in Cameroon (ECAM mated to have lost 0.5 percent of its forests per year III 2007) classified more than 55 percent of rural (i.e., about 28,000 km2) over the past 20 years, and households as poor, compared with about 12 percent Indonesia has lost 1.0 percent per year (12,000 km2) of urban households. The survey confirmed that the (FAO 2011). In other words, Brazil and Indonesia cur- prevalence of poverty was increasing in rural areas rently lose more forest in 2 years and 4 years, respec- (52 percent of rural households were classified as poor tively, than all the Congo Basin countries did over the in 2001) while it was decreasing in urban centers past 15 years. These figures are confirmed by a global (17 percent of urban households were classified as analysis of all forested areas (table 1.7). Overall figures poor in 2001). In 2007, 87 percent of the poor were confirm the stability of deforestation rates in Central rural (82 percent in 2001). Africa and indicate that Central Africa’s rates are not only well below those of the major negative contrib- utors to world total forest area but are also below the LIMITED ADVERSE IMPACTS ON FORESTS SO FAR deforestation rates experienced by most other African Overall Low Deforestation Rates regions (see figure 1.18). Central Africa loses about 40 Deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries are percent less forest each year than southern Africa, 25 much lower than those in other tropical rainforest areas percent less than West Africa, and 15 percent less than and are low even by African standards. As shown in East Africa, and represents less than one-fifth of the table 1.6, the overall annual deforestation rate in the total forest area lost every year on the continent. Congo Basin rainforest was estimated at 0.16 percent over the 1990–2000 period. First estimates based on Deforestation Driven by Demographics and satellite sensing for the 2000–2005 period report a Subsistence Activities loss of 0.76 percent (0.15 percent per year), which In the Congo Basin, expansion of agricultural land is the seems to indicate little or no change in the deforesta- most frequently reported proximate cause of tropical tion trend in the region. These rates correspond to deforestation. Zhang et al. (2002) used a GIS-based a loss of approximately 43,000 km2 over the assessment to determine that small-scale subsistence 1990–2005 period. farming was the principal determinant of deforestation in Central Africa, particularly along the edges between These changes are by far the lowest in the world’s moist forests and non-forest land, where forests are tropical rainforest belt—net deforestation rates are more more accessible. than twice as high in South America and four times Table 1.6: Total Rainforest Areas and Net Annual Deforestation and Forest Degradation Rates in the Rainforest, 1990–2000 Total rainforest area Net annual deforestation Net annual degradation (thousand km2) (%) (%) Cameroon 168.8 0.14 0.01 CAR 46.2 0.06 0.02 DRC 989.1 0.20 0.12 Equatorial Guinea 20.0 0.10 0.00 Gabon 210.9 0.09 0.08 Republic of Congo 184.9 0.02 0.00 Total Congo Basin 1,619.9 0.16 0.09 Source: De Wasseige et al. 2009 (based on the work of Duveiller et al. 2008, and Hansen et al. 2008). Note: Figures for forest degradation in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon are to be considered with caution because of insufficient sampling in these countries. 18 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Table 1.7: Changes in Forest Area in Africa and in the Main Negative Contributors to World Total Forest Area, 1990–2010 Forest Area (thousand ha) Annual Change (thousand ha) Annual change rate (%) Subregion 1990 2000 2010 1990–2000 2000–2010 1990–2000 2000–2010 Central Africa 268,214 261,455 254,854 -676 -660 -0.25 -0.26 East Africa 88,865 81,027 73,197 -784 -783 -0.92 -1.01 North Africa 85,123 79,224 78,814 -590 -41 -0.72 -0.05 Southern Africa 215,447 204,879 194,320 -1,057 -1,056 -0.50 -0.53 West Africa 91,589 81,979 73,234 -961 -875 -1.10 -1.12 Total Africa 749,238 708,564 674,419 -4,067 -3,414 -0.56 -0.49 Southeast Asia 247,260 223,045 214,064 -2,422 -898 -1.03 -0.41 Oceania 198,744 198,381 191,384 -36 -700 -0.02 -0.36 Central 96,008 88,731 84,301 -728 -443 -0.79 -0.51 America South America 946,454 904,322 864,351 -4,213 -3,997 -0.45 -0.45 World 4,168,399 4,085,063 4,032,905 -8,334 -5,216 -0.20 -0.13 Source: FAO 2011. Note: The data presented in this table were extracted from the 2011 FAO publication State of the World’s Forests. The FAO data differ from Congo Basin-specific data put together by the Observatoire desForêts d’Afrique Centrale (OFAC) and presented in State of Forests in Congo Basin (editions 2008 and 2010 (de Wasseige, 2008 and 2010). The authors of this report relied on FAO statistics for global data on forests; they used OFAC statistics for Congo Basin-specific data. Main positive contributors include East Asia (especially China), Europe, North America (especially the United States) and South Asia (especially India). Figure 1.18: Changes in Forest Area in Main Regions in Africa on 1990–2010 period 750 750 600 Source: Authors 600 450 Note: For the purpose of this analysis, Central Africa includes Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the 450 300 Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, 300 150 -0.92 -1.01 Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan 150 -0.72 -0.05 da Cunha, Sao Tome and Principe; 0 East Africa: Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, 0 1990 2000 2010 Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, Seychelles, Somalia, 1990 2000 2010 Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania; North North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Mauritania, Africa Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Western Sahara; Southern Africa: 750 Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, 600 West South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe; 450 Africa East West Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, 300 Central Africa Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo 150 -1.1 -1.12 Africa Southeast Asia: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s 0 Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, 1990 2000 2010 Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vietnam; South Oceania: American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, 750 Africa Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Norfolk Island, Northern Marianna Islands, Palau, Papua New 600 Guinea, Pitcairn, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, 450 Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna Islands; -0.25 -0.26 750 300 Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, 600 Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama; 150 450 South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, 0 -0.5 -0.53 Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, 1990 2000 2010 300 Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela. 150 Source: FAO 2011. 0 1990 2000 2010 Working Paper 1: Agriculture 19 Deforestation trends in the Congo Basin are directly percent per year—even faster (5–8 percent) in the related to population growth and the expansion of large cities such as Kinshasa and Kisangani, Brazzaville associated subsistence activities (agriculture and and Pointe Noire, Libreville, Franceville and Port Gentil, energy), which usually occur at the expense of the Douala and Yaounde, and Bata. These growing urban forest. Thus, deforestation and forest degradation have centers create new dynamics and needs in terms of so far been mainly concentrated around urban centers food and energy (mainly charcoal) supply, both of and in the most densely populated areas. This is a which are likely to be met by increased pressures completely different picture than in Indonesia, Brazil, on forest areas. Table 1.8 illustrates the population and other countries, where large-scale agricultural dynamics in the Basin countries; figure 1.19 shows the operations (conversion to pasture and plantations) are urbanization trend since 1995. by far the main drivers of deforestation.18 Deforestation and forest degradation are mainly concen- Population densities in forest areas remain low around trated around urban centers and in the most densely the globe, which translates to limited deforestation populated areas (figure 1.20). In a recent phenome- and forest degradation in rural areas. Although the non, rural areas in the rainforest also tend to become total population of the six countries was estimated more densely populated, as evidenced by the prolif- to be about 100 million people in 2010, the Congo eration of urban centers with a population of at least Basin itself is sparsely populated, with an estimated 24 100,000 inhabitants (cf. territories close to large urban million people. More than half of them live in urban centers). In rural areas, Zhang and colleagues used a areas, including 9 million people in Kinshasa. Average GIS-based assessment of the vulnerability and future rural population density is therefore very low, estimated extent of tropical forests in the Congo Basin to show at 6.5 inhabitant/km2, with densities as low as 1–3 that the annual clearance of the dense forest is signifi- people/km2 in the central cuvette of the Congo River. cantly linked to rural population density. Their study also Some zones in central and northeastern Gabon, north- found a positive relationship between the dense forest ern Congo, and central Democratic Republic of Congo degraded during the 1980s–1990s and the degraded are among the 10 percent wildest zones on earth.19 forest area in the 1980s (Zhang et al. 200). The tran- Despite high population growth rates, population sition zones between rainforest and savanna, where densities in forested areas have remained low owing populations are usually much greater, also usually have to steady rural-urban migration. The transition zones high deforestation or forest degradation rates. between rainforest and savannah—where population densities can reach up to 150 inhabitants/km2— The informal nature of deforestation in the Congo Basin usually have significant deforestation or forest makes it hard for governments to address the problem degradation rates. by changing the laws. In most Congo Basin countries (notably the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Although Basin countries have low population density Central African Republic), the state does not have the rates, urbanization trends are emerging. Urban cen- necessary power to enact and enforce laws that would ters in the Congo Basin are growing rapidly at 3–5 regulate informal deforestation (Collier 2007). In other countries—Brazil, for instance—the situation is different: 18 “Industrial soybean cultivation accounts for 70% of Argentina’s defor- Deforestation is primarily industrial and can be regu- estation, while Vietnam’s export commodities of coffee, cashew, pepper, lated. The uncontrollability factor in the Congo Basin shrimp (the latter affecting coastal mangroves), rice, and rubber drive forest conversion. Other countries with significant commercial and industrial impacts makes the situation very delicate. In the absence of reli- on forests include Lao PDR (plantation fueled by foreign direct investment, able tracking or an effective governing body, deforesta- Costa Rica (meat exports to the US promoted by government lending policies), Mexico (82% of deforestation due to agriculture or grazing), and Tanzania tion rates will continue to rise with population growth (increasing biofuel production)� Kissinger, G., 2011, Policy Brief 3-CGIAR and could rise very quickly in response to a spike in 19 Using the “human footprint� approach described by Sanderson and others international demand for agriculture products. in 2002 (De Wasseige et al. 2009). 20 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Table 1.8: Rural/Urban Population and Urbanization Trends in the Congo Basin Countries 1995 2000 2005 2010 CAMEROON Total Population 13,940,337 15,678,269 17,553,589 19,598,889 Population growth (%) 2.55 2.29 2.24 2.19 Urban population (% of total) 45.3 49.9 54.3 58.4 Urban population growth (% of total) 4.6 4.15 3.87 3.6 CENTRAL AFRICAN REP (CAR) Total Population 3,327,710 3,701,607 4,017,880 4,401,051 Population growth (%) 2.44 1.89 1.65 1.9 Urban population (% of total) 37.2 37.6 38.1 38.9 Urban population growth (% of total) 2.66 2.1 1.91 2.31 CONGO, DEM. REP (DRC) Total Population 44,067,369 49,626,200 57,420,522 65,965,795 Population growth (%) 3.27 2.44 2.94 2.71 Urban population (% of total) 28.4 29.8 32.1 35.2 Urban population growth (% of total) 3.69 3.38 4.39 4.48 REP. CONGO Total Population 2,732,706 3,135,773 3,533,177 4,042,899 Population growth (%) 2.74 2.6 2.51 2.54 Urban population (% of total) 56.4 58.3 60.2 62.1 Urban population growth (% of total) 3.48 3.25 3.14 3.16 EQU. GUINEA Total Population 442,527 520,380 607,739 700,401 Population growth (%) 3.34 3.2 3 2.79 Urban population (% of total) 38.8 38.8 38.9 39.7 Urban population growth (% of total) 5.47 3.2 3.05 3.2 GABON Total Population 1,087,327 1,235,274 1,370,729 1,505,463 Population growth (%) 2.95 2.33 1.96 1.87 Urban population (% of total) 75.4 80.1 83.6 86 Urban population growth (% of total) 4.64 3.51 2.8 2.43 Source: Authors, from World Development Indicators database, World Bank (http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do; accessed March 2012). Figure 1.19: Urban Population in the Congo Basin Countries, 1995–2010 (percentage of total population) 100 90 80 70 60 1995 50 2000 40 30 2005 20 2010 10 0 Cameroon Central Democratic Rep. Rep.of Congo Eq. Guinea Gabon African Rep. of Congo Source: Authors, from World Development Indicators database, World Bank (http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do; accessed March 2012). Working Paper 1: Agriculture 21 Figure 1.20: Spatial Distribution of Deforestation (red) and Forest Degradation (yellow) in the Humid Forests Source: De Wasseige et al. 2009 (based on the work of Duveiller et al. 2008). Note: Each circle represents a 10 x 10 km sample. The size is proportional to the total area affected by deforestation and degradation, while the two colors provide information on the relative importance of the two processes. Low Impact of Large-Scale Plantations The Basin has significant agro-ecological potential for Translating plantation area evolution figures into actual the development of several major commodities, includ- impact on forests is not straightforward. While increases ing soybeans, sugarcane, and palm oil. However, a in areas under cocoa, bananas, and oil palm (mainly weak transportation network, low land productivity, and in Cameroon) have probably been at the expense a poor business environment reduce the attractiveness of forest, the general decrease in most countries’ of the region to investors. Because of the availability plantation areas does not necessarily mean that the of suitable land for agricultural expansion in countries abandoned land has returned to secondary forest. In with better performance in terms of infrastructure, addition, the sharp decrease in the area under coffee productivity, and an enabling business environment, probably corresponds to a decrease in the harvested the Congo Basin has not attracted sizable investment area, with limited impact on the forest cover, as coffee in large-scale agriculture. However, this situation may is generally grown under the primary forest canopy. change, depending on the external and internal vari- The authors could not find precise figures on this issue; ables discussed in chapter 3. however, some data suggest that, while expansion of certain plantation crops has had a negative effect on Because of limited expansion of plantations, the Congo forests, especially in Cameroon, the global effect has Basin has not experienced the massive deforesta- been limited so far (Tollens 2010). tion observed in other regions. The phenomenon of large-scale land acquisition for agriculture and biofuel The Congo Basin has not experienced the expansion projects in other regions of the world (Southeast Asia, in large-scale plantations seen in other tropical regions. the Amazon) has not yet materialized in the Congo 22 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Basin countries. Most of the planned investments for oil palm plantation projects in Cameroon) clearly commercial plantations in the Basin focus on rehabili- indicate that large-scale land conversion could pose a tating those that were abandoned after the colonization significant threat to tropical forests and could potentially era, which would have no effect on tropical forest area. drive significant deforestation (see box 1.4.). However, some recent signals (for example, large-scale Box 1-4. Palm Oil Potential in Cameroon Worldwide demand for palm oil—the number one vegetable oil—is projected to rise as the world population looks for affordable sources of food and energy. In 2011, Malaysia and Indonesia dominated the production of palm oil, but strong consumption trends have made it an attractive sector for investors seeking to diversify supply sources across the tropics, including in the Congo Basin. A case in point is Cameroon, where at least six companies are reported to be trying to secure more than a million hectares for the production of palm oil (Hoyle and Levang 2012). In 2010, Cameroon produced 230,000 tons of crude palm oil across an estate of 190,000 ha (indepen- dent smallholdings accounted for 100,000 ha; supervised smallholder plantations and agro-industrial plantations accounted for the balance) and was the world’s 13th largest producer. Compared with other crops in the Congo Basin, where productivity tends to trail far behind that in other countries, palm oil yields in Cameroon are among the highest in the world, on par with Malaysia’s. Because of its potential in terms of growth, employment, and poverty reduction, industrial palm oil production is a national priority, with plans to increase production to 450,000 tons by 2020. Some of the plantation sites identified in emerging land deals could be problematic, because they appear to be in high conservation value forests or near biodiversity hotspots. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 23 2 CHAPTER 2 1 Will Agricultural Development Be at the Expense of the Forests? As noted in chapter 1, deforestation and forest degra- POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT dation have been primarily driven by small-scale sub- IN THE CONGO BASIN sistence farming concentrated around urban centers and in the most densely populated areas. The potential for agricultural development in the Congo Basin is significant; however, it remains to be seen This chapter explores possible future developments in whether and to what extent this potential is achieved the agricultural sector in the six Congo Basin countries over the next few decades. The major internal and and their potential impacts on forest cover. It presents external factors that might influence agricultural devel- the chief findings of research conducted over the past opment are discussed below. two years in close consultation with the Basin countries and the regional Forestry Commission for Central Africa Growing International Demand for (COMIFAC). The study combined robust analysis of the Agricultural Products agricultural sector in the six countries and a modeling Experts have estimated that global agricultural pro- exercise using the CongoBIOM model developed by duction should increase by 70 percent by 2050 and IIASA (for more information on the model, see box 2.1 by 100 percent in developing countries (Bruinsma and the annex). Box 2-1: The CongoBIOM Model In 2009, the six Congo Basin countries, along with donors and partner organizations, agreed to collaborate to analyze major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the region. A modeling approach was chosen because the High Forest Cover, Low Deforestation (HFLD) profile of the Congo Basin countries justified using a prospective analysis to forecast deforestation, and historical trends were considered inadequate to capture the future nature and amplitude of drivers of deforestation. The approach built on an adaptation of the GLOBIOM model set up by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and tailored to the Congo region (CongoBIOM) to investigate drivers of deforestation and resulting greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. It also strongly relied on inputs from regional multistakeholder workshops held in Kinshasa and Douala in 2009 and 2010, as well as in-depth analysis of trends in the agricultural, logging, energy, transport, and mining sectors. The CongoBIOM was used to assess the effects of a series of policy shocks identified by Congo Basin coun- try representatives. Various scenarios were developed to highlight the drivers of deforestation, both internal (improved transport infrastructure, improved agricultural technologies, decrease in fuelwood consumption) and external (increase in international demand for meat and biofuel). 24 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection 2009). They foresee an increase of 40 percent in where land and labor are cheaper and the potential for the world’s population by 2050, combined with an productivity increases is higher than in traditional pro- increase in average food consumption. FAO projections ducing regions. The strong interest recently expressed suggest that, although less strong than in the past, yield by various investors in land acquisition in developing increases and increased cropping intensity will account economies is unlikely to slow. for 90 percent of production growth (80 percent in developing countries), with the remainder coming from Prospects are positive for most of the commercial land expansion. That would translate into 47 million ha crops grown in the sub-region. Globally, palm oil is of land to be brought into production globally over the the most widely used oil, and the evolution of biofuel 2010–2030 period, with a decrease of 27 million ha in demand could amplify the demand for oil palm planta- developed and transitional countries and an increase of tions. Rubber, although it was affected by the financial 74 million ha in developing economies. crisis and the subsequent car manufacturing crisis, is showing increasing demand from emerging mar- Demand for biofuel feedstocks will also be a major kets in India and China. Cocoa is the only agricultural factor driving world agriculture evolution, with land commodity that was not affected by the contraction conversion for biofuels by 2030 estimated to range of the markets during the financial crisis; it maintained between 18 and 44 million ha.20 In the more indus- a strong performance that is likely to continue. Coffee trialized Organization for Economic Co-operation and prices are much more volatile but could offer opportu- Development (OECD) countries in particular, increasing nities if fluxes were better controlled. Currently, neigh- the incorporation of biofuels into the domestic energy boring countries (mainly eastern African countries, such matrix has become an important policy objective. Most as Rwanda) have developed processing facilities and OECD countries have adopted policies and strategies become export platforms for agricultural commodities; to incentivize the domestic consumption of biofuels; for example, it seems that a portion of the Democratic the European Union (EU) in particular is strongly com- Republic of Congo production is informally directed to mitted to biofuels as part of a climate change mitiga- these countries and then exported under their statistics. tion agenda. Some developing countries are embracing the economic opportunities inherent in servicing new Commodity supply could shift to the Congo Basin. As a export markets.21 response to increasing concerns related to the envi- ronment (including climate change), some key-com- A total of 6 million ha could be brought to production modity-exporting countries are taking strong measures every year over the next 20 years. While various mod- to limit expansion of commercial agriculture into forest els have arrived at annual land conversion increases areas. Indonesia, for instance, has made a strong politi- ranging from 4.5 million ha to 12 million ha over the cal commitment to a moratorium on awarding con- next 20 years, a conservative estimate is that 6 million cession rights to private companies to convert primary ha/year of additional land will be brought into pro- forests into oil palm plantations. This commitment duction through 2030 (120 million ha in total). Such was supported by the government of Norway, which annual increases represent more than three times the pledged US$1 billion to encourage the Indonesian average land expansion rate from 1990 through 2007 government to reduce deforestation. In the meantime, (1.9 million ha/year), and the rate is probably higher in some Asian investors have shown increased interest in developing countries, owing to the ongoing shift in pro- securing land access for oil palm plantations in Central duction of bulk commodities to land-abundant regions Africa, particularly Cameroon (see box 2.2). This could be termed “international leakage,� in the jargon used in 20 Biofuel feedstocks comprise wheat, maize, sugarcane, and oil seeds (not climate change negotiations. included in the above projections). 21 This chapter draws heavily on data and findings provided by Deininger and Byerlee, 2011. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 25 Box 2-2: Recent Trends in Large-Scale Agricultural Expansion in Cameroon Industrial production of palm oil is not new to the internationally important protected areas of Cameroon. The German colonial administration estab- Korup National Park, Rumpi Hills Forest Reserve, lished the first commercial plantations in 1907 in the Bakossi National Park, and Banyang-Mbo Wildlife coastal plains, around Mt. Cameroon and Edea. The Sanctuary. crop was further developed under the Franco-British ƒƒ Sime Darby, a Malaysia-based diversified multi- regime until 1960, when it had reached an estimated national and the world’s biggest listed palm oil production of 42,500 tons. After independence, the producer, is searching for up to 600,000 ha of government of Cameroon took over the production of land in Cameroon to develop oil palm and rubber palm oil with the creation of public sector companies plantations, across the center, southern, Littoral, such as Société des Palmeraies (which later became and southwest regions. Detailed plans are not SOCAPALM), PAMOL, and CDC. According to the clear, but it is believed that Sime Darby is propos- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, ing to develop 300,000 ha of oil palm plantation Cameroon produced 230,000 tons of crude palm in Yingui, Nkam Division, adjacent to the proposed oil in 2010 across an estate of approximately Ebo National Park and UFA 00-004. 190,000 ha. ƒƒ SIVA Group/Biopalm Energy is an Indian-owned, As a result of increased global demand for palm oil Indonesian-registered set of companies. SIVA has and suitable conditions for development, Cameroon a global plan to secure 1 million hectares under has witnessed a sharp rise since 2009 in investor oil palm in several countries. It is seeking at least enquiries seeking land to plant oil palms. It is believed 200,000 ha in Cameroon (not in one block) and that at least six companies are currently trying to has reportedly already acquired 50,000 ha in the secure over a million ha for the production of palm oil Ocean Division, with authorization to develop in the southern forested zone. 10,000 ha yearly. One of the sites SIVA is trying to secure is UFA 00-003.. ƒƒ Sithe Global Sustainable Oils Cameroon (SGSOC) is a locally registered company in Cameroon, ƒƒ In August 2011, Good Hope Asia Holdings from owned by Herakles Farms (affiliate of Herak- Singapore announced its plan to invest several les Capital), which is based in New York. Since hundreds of millions of dollars in palm oil plan- 2009, SGSOC has been trying to secure a large tations in Cameroon. Good Hope is searching for tract of land in the range of 100,000+ ha in the an unknown quantity of land for palm oil develop- southwestern part of Cameroon to develop a ment in Ocean Division, South Region. large oil palm plantation. SGSOC is currently in ƒƒ In addition, Palm Co is requesting at least the process of finalizing the acquisition of 73,086 100,000 ha in the Nkam area of Littoral, and ha (30,600 ha in Ndian Division and 42,600 Smart Holdings is trying to acquire 25,000 ha in ha in Kupe-Muanenguba Division). The site of an unknown location. the proposed plantation lies inside a globally Source: Extracts from a WWF-IRD-CIFOR ad hoc working paper, April 2012. recognized biodiversity hotspot, surrounded by Vibrant Domestic and Regional Markets infrastructure favor imports, which also benefit from important economies of scale. The energy issue—espe- The fast-rising urban population will continue to cially the relatively high cost of fuelwood and charcoal— depend on imported foods. In view of the structural is also a factor, as rice, for example, cooks much faster problems of domestic production, the demand for than starchy staples. As for animal protein, production food will most likely continue to be largely met by in Central Africa is hampered by the prevalence of the imports, worsening the area’s agricultural trade balance tse-tse fly and the absence of a reliable feed industry. and increasing its dependence on imports. Supply volatility and expensive transport owing to poor road 26 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection However, the increase in internal demand may create segmented. Deteriorated infrastructure and high trans- opportunities for local agriculture. Domestic production action costs hamper the development of agricultural of vegetable oils (especially palm oil) and sugar could trade and exchanges not only at the national level but increase—currently, all six countries are net importers. at the regional level as well. Unlocking these markets The growing demand could be partially met through the and the exchanges at the regional level could provide a peri-urban expansion of agriculture, especially production boost for agriculture in the sub-region. Currently, most of leafy vegetables, tomatoes (market gardening), and of the trans-boundary fluxes, though quite active, are small livestock (poultry and small ruminants). Import informal; they cover all kinds of products, both staple substitution could also support agricultural growth in products and plantation crops. Formalizing these fluxes these countries: some products could be locally grown through regional trade agreements and regional integra- and directly substituted for the imported products, while tion could support agricultural growth in Central Africa. some new products could replace imported ones (for instance, cassava-based flour has the potential to replace Land Suitability and Availability imported wheat flour, as happened in western Africa). Land suitability. The potential to expand agricultural land throughout the Congo Basin is considerable. The A vibrant regional market is still to be unlocked. maps in figure 2.1 show suitable land for the three Agriculture markets in Central Africa are largely Figure 2-1: Tropical Land Area Suitable for (a) Soybean, Sugar Cane (b), and Oil Palm (c) Source: Hansen 2001 in: A Preliminary Global Assessment of Tropical Forested Land Suitability for Agriculture. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 27 major export-oriented crops: soybeans, sugar cane, and suitable land and cultivated land, particularly high in the palm oil. The Congo Basin countries are generously Congo Basin countries, illustrates the great potential for endowed and rank just behind the Latin America. investments in land expansion. Land availability. A recent study commissioned by the Potential to Increase Productivity World Bank (Deininger and Byerlee 2011) modeled Prospects for yield increase in Africa are promising. the potential worldwide availability of land for rainfed While the scope for yield gains over 2010–2050 crop production. Altogether, the Congo Basin countries seems more limited at the international level than in contain about 40 percent of the uncultivated, unpro- the past, the situation is drastically different in Africa. tected low population density land suitable for cultiva- The potential for agricultural production in the Congo tion in Sub-Saharan Africa and 12 percent of such land Basin is far from realized for most of the cultivated available globally (see table 2.1).22 The ratio between crops; these countries have important yield gaps that offer significant margins for improvement. 22 If forests are excluded, they contain about 20 percent of the land available in Sub-Saharan Africa and 9 percent available globally. Table 2- 1: Potential Land Availability by Country (million ha) Suitable noncropped, nonprotected area density < 25 people/km2 Total area Forest area Cultivated area Forest Nonforest Sub-Saharan Africa 2,408.2 509.4 210.1 163.4 201.5 DRC 232.8 147.9 14.7 75.8 22.5 Sudan 249.9 9.9 16.3 3.9 46.0 Zambia 75.1 30.7 4.6 13.3 13.0 Mozambique 78.4 24.4 5.7 8.2 16.3 Angola 124.3 57.9 2.9 11.5 9.7 Madagascar 58.7 12.7 3.5 2.4 16.2 Republic of Congo 34.1 23.1 0.5 12.4 3.5 Chad 127.1 2.3 7.7 0.7 14.8 Cameroon 46.5 23.6 6.8 9.0 4.7 Tanzania 93.8 29.4 9.2 4.0 8.7 CAR 62.0 23.5 1.9 4.4 7.9 Gabon 26.3 21.6 0.4 6.5 1.0 Latin America and Caribbean 2,032.4 934.0 162.3 290.6 123.3 Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2,469.5 885.5 251.8 140.0 52.4 East and South Asia 1,932.9 493.8 445.0 46.3 14.3 Middle East and North Africa 1,166.1 18.3 74.2 0.2 3.0 Rest of the World 3,319.0 863.2 358.9 134.7 51.0 World Total 13,333.1 3,706.5 1,503.4 775.2 445.6 Source: Deininger et al. 2011, based on the work of Fischer and Shah (IIASA) 2010. Note: In Sub-Saharan Africa, only countries that have more non-cropped non-protected suitable land (forest or non-forest) than Gabon are detailed here. 28 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection The Congo Basin is among the areas in the world that to markets to facilitate the purchase of inputs, including have the greatest potential for expanding cultivation fertilizers, and the sale of products. and increasing yields. The World Bank used the IIASA methodology, with its high-resolution agro-ecological Unconstrained Water Resources zoning, to predict land suitability, potential yields, and Many parts of the world, especially in developing gross value of output for five key crops: wheat (not countries, are expected to experience water scarcity relevant in the case of Congo Basin countries), maize, and stresses in the future. Water scarcity and compe- oil palm, soybeans, and sugar cane. The model shows tition with other uses in many regions (such as China, that the Congo Basin is one of the areas with the great- South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa) will have est maximum potential value of output in the world for profound effects on agricultural production, possibly these crops (figure 2.2). including changes in cropping patterns, reduced yields, increased frequency of extreme weather events result- However, constraints to yield increase still need to ing in higher variability of output, and the necessity in be removed. The governments of the Congo Basin certain areas to invest in water storage infrastructure countries would have to define an ambitious and to capture more concentrated rainfall and minimize strategic vision to transform their agriculture and set associated soil erosion. up mechanisms that systematically address the con- straints to agricultural development. This undertaking In the context of climate change, the profile of the would encompass removing barriers to private sector Congo Basin countries does not show constraints on investment (improving the business environment), water resources. Hydro-meteorological models predict reinvigorating R&D and extension services, building or that this profile is likely to persist in the coming decades, rehabilitating rural infrastructure, and improving access giving Congo Basin countries a comparative advantage Figure 2- 2: Maximum Potential Value of Output (US$/ha) in Tropical Areas Working Paper 1: Agriculture 29 Source: Deininger et al. 2011, based on the work of Fischer and Shah (IIASA 2010). 30 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection over most neighboring countries, which are predicted following section explores how developments in the to face increased scarcity of water. So far, Congo Basin sector could affect the forest cover in the Congo Basin. countries have been spared the natural disasters related to weather extremes that have occurred in some neigh- The CongoBIOM was used to assess the effects of a boring countries. This resilience to climate change will series of policy shocks identified by Congo Basin coun- provide the Congo Basin countries with a comparative try representatives. Five different scenarios were tested, advantage at the global level (figure 2.3). in addition to the baseline and three of them were directly related to the agriculture sector (S1 and S2 tested external policy shocks, while S5 was an internal FUTURE IMPACTS ON FORESTS policy shock): S1 assumed an increase in international The factors described in the previous section suggest demand for meat; S2, an increase in international that the agricultural sector has potential to take off demand for biofuels; and S5, improved agricultural during the next few decades, but unlocking this poten- productivity through enhanced technologies. The main tial might lead to increased pressures on forests. The findings from the modeling exercise on these three Figure 2- 3: Water Availability in the Congo Basin Countries (m3/person/year) Source: Authors. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 31 scenarios are presented below. (For more information In the Congo Basin, an increase in productivity could on the modeling exercise, see the annex.) be accompanied by an expansion of cultivated lands at the expense of the forests. The CongoBIOM model In addition to these three scenarios, population growth indicates that the intensification of land production in is likely to remain a major driver of deforestation response to a growing demand for food—as well as an through expansion of subsistence agriculture. This unlimited labor market, which is the case in the Congo growth is expected to cause high demand for agricul- Basin—leads to an expansion of agricultural lands. tural products and thus foster deforestation in a largely Production costs fall, which stimulates local consump- incontrollable way. The trend was observed in a study tion of agricultural products; demand then rises above of drivers of deforestation in the Democratic Republic the level that can be met simply by the increase in pro- of Congo conducted by the Catholic University of ductivity. The reduction in unit production cost narrows Louvain (Belgium) (Delhage and Defourny 2011). In the difference in opportunity costs between agricultural this study, 35 variables were tested on 1,365 sample and forest uses, and generally more than compensates sites for correlations with variable deforestation. The for the cost of converting forests into cropland. The strongest correlation (0.83) was observed for pop- productivity gains, by making the agricultural activities ulation growth. Because the Democratic Republic of more profitable, can increase pressure on forested Congo covers a large part of the Congo Basin, this lands, which are generally the easiest new lands for observation has an important, almost representative, farmers to access. Without pairing with accompanying value for the region; it allows us to conclude that policies and measures on land planning and monitor- uncontrollable small-scale deforestation will probably ing, stimulating agricultural productivity will likely lead to be a key driver of deforestation in the Basin. more deforestation in the Congo Basin (see recom- mendations in chapter 3). Will an Increase in Land Productivity Reduce or Exacerbate the Pressure on Forests? The CongoBIOM model also suggests that changes in Until now, agricultural performance in the Congo Basin global commodity prices can lead to substitution of has remained very weak, with substantial yield gaps, imports by local production. In fact, the model indicates under-mechanized agriculture, and limited or no use of that when the international price for an agricultural fertilizers (see chapter 1). Land productivity could be product rises above a critical threshold, the imported increased through a coordinated approach, including product becomes less affordable for local populations R&D, extension services, improvements in varieties and and drives local production. Thus, the combination of use of fertilizers, and development and rehabilitation of growing demand for food and unlimited labor avail- rural infrastructure. Such an approach would likely yield ability in the Congo Basin is likely to ultimately foster transformational effects in the agricultural sectors of the domestic production. Congo Basin. Effect of International Demand for Increase in land productivity is often seen as the most Agricultural Commodities promising means to achieve both food production and The Congo Basin is not yet really integrated in the forest preservation. It is assumed that producing more global agricultural markets (with the exception of coffee on the same land would enable countries to avoid the and cocoa). However, the CongoBIOM model shows conversion of new lands into agricultural production that despite its marginal contribution to global markets, and that the spared land would then sequester more the Basin could still be affected by global trends in agri- carbon or emit fewer greenhouse gases than farm- cultural commodity trade. The two examples presented land. While this logic is attractive, models show that it below describe how external shocks could indirectly is unlikely to materialize unless some accompanying affect the Congo Basin forests. measures are put in place. 32 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection First-Generation Biofuels The climatic conditions for growing sugar cane and Sugar cane and palm oil can be used directly to oil palms are particularly suitable in tropical countries produce first-generation biofuels and are currently (see the maps in figure 2.2 above), and planting the major options in terms of biofuels.23 There has them does not directly compete with forest resources. been a spectacular increase in biofuel demand since However, despite the general trend of “land grabbing� 2000, primarily because of public sector support. This elsewhere, the Congo Basin countries do not yet show trend responds to the decline in known and afford- significant signs of expansion of biofuel plantations, able reserves of fossil fuels, and the need to diversity mainly because of their lack of comparative advantage energy supply. While at some point it was considered against countries that can access large areas of suitable that the substitution of fossil fuel by biofuels could land and have better infrastructure, productivity, and reduce global CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, this is business environments. The current trend in the Congo now being seriously questioned because of the poten- Basin is to rehabilitate abandoned plantations. tial contribution of biofuel development to increased deforestation in the tropics. However, the fact that the Congo Basin does not produce significant amounts of biofuels now does not mean that it will not eventually do so. The modeling 23 Second-generation biofuels should also reduce the pressure on land— exercise showed that the indirect effects of biofuel ameliorating the conversion of biomass energy and extending usable biomass resources—but the technologies are not yet commercially available. Production expansion in other regions of the world will reduce agri- of biodiesel from used cooking oil or low-grade tallow (for example, Jatropha, cultural exports from primary exporting regions, which which can grow on some low-productivity land in Asia and Africa) is occurring; could then increase deforestation in the Congo Basin. however, the use of these substances is marginal in total biodiesel production, and their potential large-scale future use is questionable. (See FAO 2010b for a The path of these indirect effects is shown in figure 2.4. discussion of Jatropha’s potential.) Figure 2- 4: Channels of Transmission of International Crop Demand Increase to Deforestation in Congo Basin Rest of the World Meat demand (+) Livestock (+) Feed crop demand (+) Pasture area (+) Domestic production of feed crop (+) Substitution of other crops (-) Exports of other crops (-) Price (+) Imports of other crops (-) Substitution import / production (+) Domestic production (+) Crop productivity (+) Cultivated land expansion (+) Risk of deforestation (+) Congo Basin Source: Authors from IIASA 2011. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 33 Meat Consumption The Congo Basin could almost double its cultivated As living standards rise, diet patterns shift toward an area without converting any forested areas. While the increase in consumption of animal calories, particularly vast majority of suitable land (uncropped, unprotected in emerging economies such as China, Russia, and areas) lies under forests, there is also considerable India. The average annual meat consumption in devel- nonforested land in the Basin. In fact, in most of the oped countries is 80 kg per capita; in the developing countries it represents more than the area currently world, it is about 30 kg per capita and growing fast. under production: the mean ratio of cultivated area Livestock production could increase sharply during the to nonforested area in the Congo Basin countries is next decades, which would create a double pressure 0.61, ranging from 1.45 in Cameroon to 0.14 in the on climate change: the enteric fermentation of rumi- Republic of Congo, far below the global ratio of 3.37 nants that creates methane emissions and the conver- (see table 2.1). sion of forested lands into pasture and feed croplands. During the past decade, Brazil has become a meat ƒƒThe Democratic Republic of Congo has the great- exporter; mechanized agriculture for soybean cultiva- est reserve of uncultivated, unprotected, and low tion and intensive cattle grazing have been the domi- population density land suitable for cultivation in nant drivers of land clearing in the Amazon Forest.24 Sub-Saharan Africa (table 2.1).25 The reserve is esti- mated at 98.3 million ha, of which three-fourths is The Congo Basin has no comparative advantage for currently under forest; it represents nearly 7 times producing meat; it lacks the appropriate biophysical the area presently cultivated in this country (more and climatic conditions for large-scale cattle farming. than 16 times if the FAO figure for the Democratic However, the increase in international demand for Republic of Congo’s cultivated land is used).26 If meat could affect its forest cover, as demonstrated by only nonforested suitable land is considered, the the CongoBIOM model: the Congo Basin countries Democratic Republic of Congo still ranks among could suffer an indirect effect through the substitu- the six countries with the largest amount of suit- tion of crops and changing price signals. The model able but uncultivated land: Sudan, Brazil, Russia, indicates that the development of cattle farming and Argentina, Australia, and the Democratic Republic feedstock production in Latin America and Asia might of Congo, in that order. The Democratic Republic of reduce crop production in these countries, and that this Congo’s suitable nonforested land is estimated at reduction in supply could lead to an increase in crop more than 1.5 times its currently cultivated land prices. The Congo Basin countries could react to this (almost 4 times its currently cultivated land if the development by increasing the area under production FAO figure is used). for traditionally imported crops, especially corn. ƒƒCameroon is estimated to have a reserve of 13.6 million ha, of which about two-thirds is presently Land Availability: Forested Versus under forest. This is about twice its area presently Nonforested Lands under is considered. The previous sections highlighted the risk for increased ƒƒThe Republic of Congo is estimated to have 15.8 deforestation linked to local and international pres- million ha of suitable uncultivated land, of which sures, but the Congo Basin could benefit from sig- about three-fourths is under forest. This reserve nificant reserves of nonforested lands suitable for agriculture that could be turned into production lands if 25 A threshold of 25 persons/km2 (i.e., more than 20 ha per household) was used, under which the authors of the IIASA study consider that voluntary land it had a structural political framework that could redirect transfers that benefit all stakeholders can easily yield agreement. pressure on forests to nonforested land. 26 FAO figures for Congo Basin countries’ cultivated area (2008) significantly differ from the figures used by Deininger and Byerlee (2011), especially for the 24 Between 2000 and 2007, poultry exports increased by a factor of 23, and Democratic Republic of Congo. FAO figures, in millions ha: Cameroon: 4.7; the beef exports rose by a factor of 7. In China, soybean imports increased by a Central African Republic: 1.0; the Democratic Republic of Congo: 5.9; Gabon: factor of 2.6 between 2000 and 2007 to support livestock production. 0.2; Equatorial Guinea: 0.1; Republic of Congo: 0.3 (FAOSTAT 2011). 34 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection represents more than 30 times the area presently ƒƒGabon is estimated to have 7.4 million ha avail- cultivated (7 times if only nonforested suitable land able, almost 90 percent of which is currently under is considered). forest, representing about 19 times its area pres- ƒƒThe Central African Republic is estimated to have ently under cultivation. If only nonforested suitable a reserve of 12.3 million ha, approximately a third land is considered, the land potentially available under forest, which represents more than 6 times in that country amounts to 2.5 times its currently its area currently cultivated (more than 4 times if cultivated land. only nonforested suitable land is considered). Working Paper 1: Agriculture 35 3 CHAPTER 3 1 Reconciling Agricultural Development and Forest Protection So far, deforestation in the Congo Basin countries has Overall agricultural production expansion can be been limited because of “passive protection� result- achieved without converting primary forests. The high ing from low population densities, historical political proportion of suitable uncultivated, nonforested land instability, poor infrastructure, and a business environ- seems to indicate that there is a path to transform the ment that is not conducive to private sector invest- agricultural sector in the Congo Basin while limiting the ment. Shifting slash-and-burn smallholder agriculture negative effects on forests. Sufficient land resources has been the main driver of deforestation in the and agricultural development paths exist that could Congo Basin countries, but agricultural impacts on the lead to substantial agricultural production increases rainforest have been limited partly because of under- without drawing on currently forested areas. This would development of the agricultural sector. Deforestation mean enhancing food security, poverty reduction, and rates are more than twice as high in South America economic growth while preserving the rainforest for the and four times as high in Southeast Asia: Brazil and benefit of the world community. Indonesia currently lose more forest in 2 years and 4 years, respectively, than the six Congo Basin countries It will not be an easy path. For that goal to be achieved, together did over the past 15 years. each country must establish strong agricultural policies, with priority given to a clear and participatory zoning However, the situation may change in response to exercise to define the areas suitable for agricultural exogenous and endogenous variables. These coun- expansion (nonforest zones) and to smallholder tries have a strong potential to expand their cultivation farming intensification (through climate-smart agricul- areas and increase productivity, resulting in associated ture, for instance). Strong land management policies— income, jobs, and revenues. The increasing global especially land tenure clarification and security—are a demand for food and biofuels, as well as poten- prerequisite to provide smallholders with an incentive tial changes in some key-commodities-producing for investing in their land and to reduce the risk of countries, would increase pressure for plantation negative social and environmental externalities in establishment in the Congo Basin.27 Political stabil- the case of land expansion. Transport infrastructure ity, improvement in the business environment, and development choices need to be made on the basis infrastructure development would also contribute to of their potential impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) attracting private investment in agricultural expansion. on forests. The Congo Basin countries need to identify policies that favor a development path that can reconcile increasing agricultural production and preservation 27 As is the case in Indonesia, where the government recently declared a moratorium on any new oil palm plantations because of REDD+ policies. of primary forests. The international community 36 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection recognizes that forests (especially tropical forests) objectives and reduce problems resulting from over- are a key element in the fight against global warming. lapping titles and potentially conflicting land uses. Development of the agricultural sector in the Congo While planning for economic development, particular Basin should be defined in a way that will respond to attention should be given to protect high-value forests the urgent need to increase production, support job in terms of biodiversity, watershed, and cultural values. creation, and limit adverse effects on natural forests. Optimally, mining, agriculture, and other activities The Congo Basin countries are at a crossroads where should be directed away from forests of great ecologi- they can define a forest-friendly path for agricultural cal value. In particular, agricultural development should development. They are not yet locked into a develop- primarily target degraded lands.29 ment path that takes a high toll on forests. The REDD+ mechanism, under discussion among the parties of Such an exercise requires strong multi-sectoral coordi- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate nation. Trade-offs among different sectors and within Change (UNFCCC), has the potential to generate sectors need to be clearly understood by the stake- significant financial flows to help developing countries holders so they can define development strategies at sustain economic development while reducing pres- the national level. Such a planning exercise will have sures on their natural forests.28 to rely on robust socioeconomic analysis as well as coordination among ministries and, in many cases, The following section offers some recommendations some form of high-level arbitrage to reconcile poten- and guidance on how the REDD+ mechanism could tial conflicting land uses. Once completed, the land be used to support new development paths that would plan would identify the forest areas that need to be reconcile economic growth and poverty alleviation with preserved, the areas that can coexist with other land forest preservation. It includes policy recommendations uses, and those that could potentially be converted to that could help the Congo Basin countries design a other uses. strategy to unlock the potential of the agricultural sector while limiting adverse effects on forests. One output of land use planning could be the iden- tification of growth poles and major development Prioritize Agricultural Expansion in corridors that could be established in a coordinated Non-forested Areas manner, with the involvement of all government The Congo Basin contains large amounts of high-po- entities as well as the private sector and civil society. In tential non-forested land in low population density the Congo Basin, this approach would likely be driven areas, which implies that there is no need, in principle, by natural resources and would provide upstream and to draw on forested areas to satisfy the future demand downstream links around extractive industries. While a for agricultural commodities. However, past trends land use planning exercise definitely needs to be con- show that forested areas may be more vulnerable to ducted at the country level (and even at the provincial agriculture expansion; if forests are to be protected, level), the Economic Community of Central African governments need to establish proactive measures. States (ECCAS) has adopted the corridor approach at the regional level to foster synergies and economies of A comprehensive, participatory land use planning exer- scale among member states. cise can determine the various land uses to be pur- sued on the national territories. Participatory land use planning can maximize economic and environmental 28 REDD+ refers to reducing greenhouse emissions from deforestation and 29 The Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration estimates that forest degradation and considering the role of conservation, sustainable more than 400 million ha of degraded land in Sub-Saharan Africa offers forest management, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing opportunities for restoring or enhancing the functionality of mosaic landscapes countries. that combine forest, agricultural, and other land uses. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 37 Enforce Forest Protection and Manage the tenure laws need to be adjusted to delink property Agricultural Frontier recognition and forest clearing. Once the status of the forested areas is officially Congo Basin countries must strengthen their rural defined, the boundaries need to be enforced. The land governance and tenure recognition frameworks. agricultural frontier can only be contained if an appro- Effective systems of land use and access rights—and priate mix of institutional, technological, and economic property rights in general—are essential to improve factors is put in place. Studies in the Amazon indicate management of natural resources and stimulate that zoning enforcement has been the most econom- sustainable agriculture. Improving these systems is ically efficient way to restrain agricultural expansion on a priority to provide farmers, especially women, with forested lands. In other areas, payments of economic incentives to make long-term investments in agricul- services seem to provide adequate incentives. In all tural transformation. cases, technological improvements are needed to allow farmers to maintain or increase their production In addition to encouraging farmers to invest in their without converting new lands. land, clarification of land rights over the whole territory would allow the Congo Basin countries to become Enforcement measures will have to go hand in hand more proactive and to engage in more success- with the promotion of more intensive agricultural prac- ful negotiations with potential large investors. Field tices because intensification, while increasing produc- evidence (Deininger and Byerlee 2011) indicates that tivity, is likely to lead to more conversion of forested policy, regulatory, and institutional deficiencies increase lands in response to unemployment and a growing environmental and social risks related to large private demand (both internal and potentially external) for land development investments. Land governance is agricultural products. weak; in particular, there is a risk that investors will acquire land essentially for free and without consid- Community-based systems for forest management eration for local rights or environmental issues, with can contribute to managing the agricultural frontier. potentially far-reaching negative consequences.30 A Experiences in the Democratic Republic of Congo show strong correlation has been shown between applica- that a combination of agricultural and forestry activities tions for large tracts of land and the weakness of rural conducted by the communities according to a land use land tenure recognition in the target countries; this plan defined at the local level can have positive effects suggests that the Congo Basin countries are at risk. in terms of poverty alleviation and forest preservation. Supporting an adequate framework for community Promote Climate-Smart Agriculture forestry in the Congo Basin is key; while most of the legal frameworks in the Basin countries mention “com- Agriculture in the Congo Basin is underperforming, munity-based forest management,� work remains to be and the prospects for productivity increases are huge. done to operationalize this concept. However, more intensive practices may not necessar- ily be environmentally sustainable in the long term. Clarify Land Tenure Governance Without the concurrent adoption of sustainable natural resource management practices, more intense produc- Forests are often considered to be “free access� areas tion could lead to increased soil erosion and greater and are not tagged with property rights; it is consid- ered that all forested lands fall under state ownership. 30 For example, on-the-ground verification of recent land acquisitions in the Moreover, tenure laws in most Congo Basin countries Democratic Republic of Congo has uncovered irregularities in land allocation directly link forest clearing (mise en valeur) with land processes: Although all concessions of at least 1,000 ha must be approved by the minister of land affairs, data collection in Katanga and Kinshasa Provinces property recognition and thus create an incentive to suggests that governors have in some cases awarded multiple concessions of target forested lands to expand agriculture. The land up to 1,000 ha each to individual investors to get around the required approval procedure (Deininger and Byerlee 2011). 38 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection vulnerability to external shocks, climate variability, and roots, tubers, bananas, and plantains, and prospects climate change. This two-pronged approach is generally for a yield increase are limited because of the slow referred to as climate-smart agriculture (see box 3.1). vegetative propagation. However, labor productivity has In the Congo Basin countries, climate-smart agriculture the potential to increase greatly through mechanization, would mainly take the form of conservation agricul- including the labor-intensive postharvest operations ture (minimal soil disturbance, meaning no tillage and of women. Signs of mechanization can be seen but direct seeding; maintenance of a mulch of carbon-rich remain limited. The use of fertilizers, which is practically organic matter that protects and feeds the soil; rota- nonexistent on small farms, could increase the yields. tions and associations of crops—including trees—that However, this potential could only be optimized if prog- would include nitrogen-fixing legumes) and agro- ress were simultaneously made on improved variet- forestry (intensive use of trees and shrubs in agricul- ies—it would not be economically profitable to invest in tural production). fertilizers without also promoting improved varieties. The trend of productivity gains in smallholder agricul- Regarding plantation agriculture, productivity gains are ture in the Congo Basin over the past few years could typically realized through mechanization and the use of be accelerated. It has been minimal and has even improved planting materials and fertilizers. New tech- declined in terms of land productivity, mainly because niques in Southeast Asia for oil palm and rubber are of reduced fallow periods, absence of fertilizers and rapidly transferred to Africa, as the same multinational improved varieties, and pest and disease problems. plantation companies operate on both continents.31 The main food staple crops in the forest zone are Margins of increase can be found at any level of the chain in large-scale plantations: in production (with improved varieties, better use of fertilizer, and Box 3-1. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Enhanced better agricultural techniques) and in processing Food Security, Reduced Vulnerability, and Climate (where the extraction rates are very low because of Change Mitigation obsolete equipment). Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenges faced by agriculture. In many areas of Very little attention has been paid to peri-urban the world, where agricultural productivity is still agriculture; so far, its development has been sponta- low and the means of coping with adverse events neous in the Congo Basin countries. Deforestation are limited, it is expected to reduce productivity and forest degradation occur primarily around the to even lower levels and make production more urban centers in these countries, owing to anarchical erratic. Preserving and enhancing food security agricultural expansion in response to rising demand requires agricultural production systems to change for food and energy. Peri-urban agriculture deserves in the direction of higher productivity and lower special attention: if it were well organized, it could not variability in the face of climate risk, as well as risks of an agro-ecological and socioeconomic only secure food provision for growing urban popu- nature. A more productive and resilient agriculture lations in most Congo Basin countries but could also requires transformations in the management of provide sustainable solutions to unemployment and natural resources (e.g., land, water, soil nutrients, waste management. and genetic resources) and higher efficiency in the use of these resources and inputs for production. One aspect often neglected in Africa is the posthar- Transitioning to such systems could also generate vest management of food production. Major losses significant mitigation benefits by increasing carbon sinks and reducing emissions per unit of agricultur- al product. 31 An example of an improved production technology is rubber production stimulation with the RRIM Flow method imported from Malaysia. This stimula- Source: FAO 2010a. tion with a growth hormone occurs with a special gas instead of a liquid and is more efficient. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 39 occur each year because of poor storage capacities R&D activities as it has in other regions; it could pro- and inefficient marketing strategies. There is no option mote new techniques and technologies, new varieties for adjusting to market prices. Governments should and inputs. Large-scale private operators could also prioritize postharvest management of crops and food help fill the gaps in extension services and reach out to production, as they are clearly part of a global strategy a large number of smallholders. for climate-smart agriculture. Empower Smallholder Farmers Reinvigorate Research and Development With about half the population active in agriculture in R&D capacities in the Congo Basin, with the exception most countries of the Congo Basin, there is a need of Cameroon, have been dismantled over the past to foster sustained agricultural growth based on decades. National research centers are dysfunctional smallholder involvement. Experience in other tropical and unable to take on the challenge of transforming regions shows that this is possible. Thailand, for exam- the agricultural sector. Partnerships need to be estab- ple, considerably expanded its rice production area lished with international research centers (members and became a major exporter of other commodities of CGIAR) to stimulate agricultural research in the by engaging its smallholders through a massive land Congo Basin and progressively strengthen the national titling program and government support for research, capacities. extension, credit, producer organizations, and rail and road infrastructure development. Many climate-smart techniques have been successfully tested and implemented all over the world, but the Promote a Sustainable Large-Scale Congo Basin has not been a focus for such research; Agribusiness Industry very few experiments exist in the Basin, and they are The superior ability of large companies to overcome limited in scale. Applied research is needed to adjust the market imperfections prevailing in the Congo Basin these techniques and practices to the agro-ecological countries—especially access to finance, technology, zones of the Congo Basin and to make the best use of inputs, processing, and markets—makes these com- the agricultural inputs (water, fertilizers, etc.). panies potentially important and desirable actors in a sustainable agricultural development strategy. Large Research on genetics has largely neglected the most operations can generate considerable employment, common staple food crops in the Congo Basin, such especially for rubber, palm oil, and sugar production, as yams, plantains, and cassava. So far, the potential to and this employment tends to benefit the landless increase their productivity and improve their resistance and the very poor. They can also play a positive role to disease and tolerance to climatic events remains in reducing deforestation and forest degradation by untapped. International research centers, along with employing relatively large populations that would then African organizations (for example, the African Union forgo their traditional slash-and-burn practices. In addi- and NEPAD) and national research centers should tion to providing employment, the estates have a legal focus on “neglected crops� as one priority to increase obligation in most Congo Basin countries to provide crop production in Africa. social infrastructure (schools, hospitals, etc.). In addition to R&D activities, extension services need to Although largely exempted from significant land grab- be revitalized to mainstream new agricultural practices bing attempts so far, the Congo Basin forests may be in rural areas. Experimental farms could be set up to at risk in the future. Moreover, countries with a high facilitate the penetration of new practices. Though it proportion of suitable land currently under forest—such has not yet played this role in the Congo Basin, large- as the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of scale commercial agriculture could pave the way for Congo, Cameroon, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea—will improvements in agricultural productivity and support 40 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection feel pressure to allocate forested land for cultivation, and promoted a well-balanced development of agricul- especially because logging can generate large rents on ture (box 3.2) top of subsequent land cultivation returns. A mora- torium has been applied to logging concessions in Develop Transport Infrastructure the Democratic Republic of Congo; however, some Transport infrastructure development should be the fear that logging interests will submit applications for cornerstone of agricultural development strategies. In forested land concessions for agricultural development many developing countries, transport infrastructure as a way of getting around the regulations and will then construction has had a major impact on agricultural not make significant agricultural investments. This phe- trade, farm intensification and diversification, and ulti- nomenon has occurred in countries in Southeast Asia. mately rural poverty. In some countries, returns to road Current institutional deficiencies and associated gaps investments in terms of rural household welfare have in the provision of public goods in the Congo Basin been estimated to be higher than returns to any other countries may result in large operations enjoying a competitive edge, while insufficient attention is paid to social and environmental externalities and no attempt is made to maximize the potential effect of private investment on poverty reduction. Box 3-2. Partnerships Between Large-Scale To overcome these limitations, governments should Operators and Smallholders establish stronger policies vis-à-vis large agricultural In Indonesia (which is the world’s largest palm oil investments. Large land applications should be producer), smallholders account for about a third oriented toward abandoned plantations and suitable of the country’s production. Because of processing nonforested land, which is sufficiently availabile, and requirements, the rapid deterioration of fresh fruit, all possible environmental externalities should be and poor access to capital and planting material, assessed. All formal or customary land (and possibly most small palm oil producers are in formal water) rights in the potentially suitable areas should be partnerships with palm oil companies through nucleus/outgrower schemes. Still, the average identified and respected, and transparent and voluntary income from oil palm cultivation is much higher transfers promoted. Large firms should be encouraged than from subsistence farming or competing cash to fill gaps in public services, transport infrastructure, crops, and it is estimated that oil palm expansion and applied R&D, for example, and possibly to enter in Indonesia significantly helped reduce rural into arrangements with smallholders that would maxi- poverty. Rubber was originally grown on large plan- mize technological spillovers and the sharing of bene- tations in humid forest areas of Southeast Asia but, fits with local populations (contract farming, nucleus/ because of rising labor and land costs, it increas- outgrower schemes, etc.). ingly became a smallholder production. Farms of 2–3 ha now make up 80 percent of world production. This situation was made possible by Foster Win-Win Partnerships between the development of improved hevea clones and Large-Scale Operators and Smallholders techniques suited to production and processing at The current dualistic profile of agriculture in the Congo the smallholder level. Smallholders in Indonesia Basin (smallholder and large-scale) could become produce rubber in improved agro-forestry systems an engine for transforming agriculture through win- that maintain carbon stocks and species richness. While returns from such systems are lower than win partnerships. While this scenario has not yet those of monocultures, reduced risk and lower materialized in the Basin, in many places in the world initial capital costs more than compensate, and meaningful partnerships between smallholders and efforts are under way to certify rubber from these large-scale operators have yielded successful results systems to obtain a price premium. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 41 kind of public spending.32 In the Congo Basin coun- of sustainable agricultural practices. On a broader level, tries, transport infrastructure construction will be critical market-based incentives could be set up through certi- to set in motion a virtuous cycle of development for fication schemes to support large and small producers cropping expansion on suitable nonforested land (the in large agro-industries (e.g., palm oil and rubber) that bulk of which is located far from infrastructure) and for adhere to sustainable practices. intensification of smallholder agriculture. On the other hand, measures that might adversely Create Positive Incentives and Remove affect forests must be removed. Such negative incen- Potential Negative Incentives tives include regulatory provisions that link property New incentive schemes will have to be set up, espe- rights with forest clearing and credit schemes offered cially if the adoption of new practices means a loss by commercial banks to support activities that require of income in the first years. These incentives could deforestation. Removing such perverse incentives has include payments for environmental services (PES). proved to be particularly efficient in terms of curbing At the country level, access to credit or provisions in deforestation: in Brazil, vetoes from the Banco do kind (including access to land, markets, or production Brazil on agricultural credit for farmers who wanted to inputs) could be established to stimulate the adoption clear areas of the Amazon Forest immediately reduced pressures on the forest. 32 This is the case in Ethiopia, for example (Mogues, Ayele, and Paulos 2008). Working Paper 1: Agriculture 43 CONCLUSION CHAPTER 1 AND OUTLOOK New dynamics in deforestation trends are likely with particular funds, including the costs of establishing to emerge in the Congo Basin. While subsistence relevant information and institutional conditions. activities such as small-scale agriculture and fuelwood collection are currently the main causes of deforesta- REDD+ provides an important opportunity for tion and degradation in the Congo Basin, new threats the Congo Basin countries to develop strategies are expected to emerge and aggravate the pressures that will move them toward sustainable devel- on natural forests. Local and regional development, opment while protecting the natural and cultural population increases, and global demand for commod- heritage of the region. This new focus on forest ities are expected to jointly drive accelerated defor- protection in international climate agreements, in com- estation and forest degradation, if business-as-usual bination with the availability of significant new financial models are applied. resources, moves sustainable forest management up in the political agenda and has facilitated dialogues in Congo Basin countries are at a crossroads. They many countries among forest agencies and the min- are not locked into a development path that will come istries and entities that regulate broader industrial and at a high cost to forests. They can define a new path agricultural development. toward forest-friendly growth. The question is how to link economic change with smart measures and policy However, the conditions and scale of eventual choices so that the Congo Basin countries sustain and REDD+ financing remain uncertain. In particu- benefit from their extraordinary natural assets over the lar, it is not clear how results-based financing will be long term. In other words, they need to determine how measured, what the criteria for payments will be, and to leapfrog the dip in forest cover usually observed in how much funding will be made available. So far, the forest transition curve. these issues have not been clarified by international negotiations, nor have the rules that will guide the New environmental finance mechanisms can establishment of national reference levels or reference help the Congo Basin countries transition toward emissions levels that would allow fully measured a forest-friendly development path. Environmental results-based financing. In the near to medium term, finance includes climate funding for adaptation and there will likely be a multiplicity of donors, and frag- mitigation efforts in general (and REDD+ in particular) mentation of REDD+ financing, including a fragmented as well as financing for biodiversity, wetlands, or soil REDD+ market. In this complex landscape, it is import- restoration. In accessing these new resources, countries ant for governments to prioritize activities, partnerships, may consider a number of issues to prioritize activities and processes. Engagement with each donor and its and effectively allocate the funds. It is up to national specific requirements and with each process related governments to define how these various mechanisms to multilateral funding or emerging carbon markets fit into their own development, how to best use the requires significant resources. resources, and whether and how to meet the relevant criteria of funds or mechanisms. They are also respon- sible for assessing the risks and benefits associated 44 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection “No-regrets� measures should yield benefits report has outlined a number of no-regrets actions. regardless of the shape and volume of a future It is up to the Congo Basin countries to use them as REDD+ mechanism under the UNFCCC. Such mea- general guidelines for more detailed discussion sures, while differing from country to country, should as they engage in the preparation of their national seek to create the enabling conditions for the imple- REDD+ strategies. mentation of inclusive and forest-friendly growth. This Working Paper 1: Agriculture 45 REFERENCES Andersen, L. E., Granger, CWJ, Reis, EJ, Weinhold, D. & Deininger, K., and D. Byerlee. 2011. “Rising Global Wunder, S., 2002. The Dynamics of Deforestation Interest in Farmland—Can It Yield Sustainable and and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon. 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T. 1993. “Deforestation and Economic Forests of Central Africa.� Agriculture, Ecosystems & Development,� Canadian Journal of Regional Environment 90 (2): 203–09. Science 16(3): 481–497. Zhang, Q., C. Justice, M. Jiang, J. Brunner, and D. World Bank. 2007. World Development Indicators. Wilkie. 2006. “A GIS-Based Assessment on the World Bank, Washington DC. Vulnerability and Future Extent of the Tropical Forests of Congo Basin.� Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 114 (1–3): 107–21. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 49 ANNEX: THE CONGOBIOM MODEL A modeling approach has been elaborated to investi- UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL gate the effect of the predicted main future drivers of TRENDS ON THE CONGO BASIN deforestation in the Congo Basin on land-use change The nature and amplitude of deforestation are likely and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by to significantly change in the Congo Basin in the next 2030. The High Forest Cover, Low Deforestation two decades. Compared with other tropical forest (HFLD) profile of the Basin countries justified the use blocks, deforestation and forest degradation have of a prospective analysis to forecast deforestation, as been globally low. They have been traditionally and historical trends were considered inadequate to prop- dominantly caused by shifting cultivation and fuelwood erly capture the future nature and magnitude of drivers collection in Central Africa; however, there are signs of deforestation. To include global parameters, we took that the Basin forest is under increasing pressure and a macroeconomic approach based on the GLOBIOM that deforestation is likely to soon increase through model (Global Biosphere Management Model). the combined effect of the amplification of the existing drivers and the emergence of new ones. GLOBIOM is a partial equilibrium model that incor- porates only some sectors of the economy. Like all ƒƒCurrent internal drivers of deforestation models, GLOBIOM simplifies a complex reality by high- are expected to amplify. Demographic factors lighting some variables and causal relations that explain (population growth as well as rural/urban pro- land-use change based on a set of assumptions about file) are determinant causes of deforestation and agents’ behavior and market functioning (see box forest degradation in the Congo Basin (Zhang et A.1). GLOBIOM includes the main sectors involved al. 2006). If existing rates of demographic growth in land use: agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy. It is remain constant, then the population of the an optimization model that searches for the highest Basin will double by 2035–2040. In most Basin possible levels of production and consumption, given countries, the population is still largely involved in the resource, technology, and political constraints in subsistence farming and predominantly relies on the economy (McCarl and Spreen 1980). The demand fuelwood for domestic energy. in the GLOBIOM model is exogenously driven; that is, some projections computed by other teams of experts ƒƒNew external drivers are emerging in the on population growth, GDP growth, bioenergy use, context of a more and more globalized econ- and structure of food consumption are used to define omy. Congo Basin countries are poorly connected the consumption starting point in each period in each to the globalized economy; thus, the drivers of region. The optimization procedure ensures that the deforestation have so far mainly been endogenous spatial production allocation minimizes the resource, (essentially population-driven). However, signs technology, processing, and trade costs. Final equi- suggest that the Basin may no longer be immune librium quantities result from an iterative procedure to global demands for commodities—directly or between supply and demand in which prices finally indirectly—with increasing pressure from a variety converge to a unique market price. The box provides a of forces, including oil and mineral extraction, road detailed description of the GLOBIOM model. development, agribusiness, and biofuels. 50 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection the model’s problems of specification and the omis- Box A.1. Underlying Assumptions sion of unobservable constraints to production. It is used to calibrate crop, sawn-wood, wood-pulp, and GLOBIOM relies mainly on neoclassical assump- tions. Agents are rational: consumers want to animal calories production. maximize their utility and producers want to maximize their profits. The markets are perfectly GLOBIOM is a global simulation model that divides competitive, with no entry and no exit costs and the world into 28 regions. One of these regions is the homogeneous goods, which implies that agents Congo Basin (the six highly forested countries covered have no market power and that the profits are in this study). It is important to look at the rest of the equal to zero at the equilibrium. The equilibrium world when studying land-use change in a region, prices ensure that demand equals supply. Agents because local shocks affect international markets and have perfect knowledge; that is, no uncertainty is taken into account. We assume that buyers vice versa. Moreover, there are important leakage are distinct from sellers so that consumption and effects. Bilateral trade flows are endogenously com- production decisions are made separately. Markets puted between each pair of regions, depending on the are defined at the regional level, meaning that domestic production cost and the trading costs (tariff consumers are assumed to pay the same price and transportation costs). across the whole region; however, selling prices could vary across the region because production The CongoBIOM is an elaboration of the GLOBIOM.35 costs and internal transportation costs are defined The Congo Basin region was specifically created within at the pixel level. the GLOBIOM, and additional details and resolution for the Basin countries were included. Land-based activities GLOBIOM is designed for the analysis of land use and land-use changes have been modeled at the sim- changes around the world.33 The biophysical processes ulation-unit level, which varies in size between 102 km modeled (agricultural and forest production) rely on and 502 km. Internal transportation costs have been a spatially explicit dataset that includes soil, climate/ computed based on the existing and planned infrastruc- weather, topography, land-cover/use, and crop man- ture network; protected areas and forest concessions agement factors.34 Harvesting potentials in cropland are have been delineated, and available national statistics computed with the EPIC model (Williams 1995), which have been collected to inform the model (IIASA 2011; determines crop yields and input requirements based Mosnier et al. 2012).The CongoBIOM model was on relationships among soil types, climate, hydrology, calibrated on the data collected in the six countries by a and so on. Timber-sustainable harvesting potential in team of international and national experts. managed forests is computed from the G4M model’s forest-growth equations. The GLOBIOM model draws The CongoBIOM was used to assess the impacts of on extensive databases for initial calibration of the a series of policy shocks identified by Congo Basin model in the base year, technical parameters, and country representatives. We first investigated what future projections. In order to reproduce the observed could be the reference level of emissions from defor- quantities for the reference year (2000), the GLOBIOM estation in the Congo Basin without further measures model is calibrated by employing positive mathemati- to prevent or limit deforestation. Complementary cal programming (Howitt 1995), which involves using scenarios were tested in addition to the baseline, with the duals on the calibration constraints to adjust the different assumptions about global meat and biofuel production cost. This process is supposed to correct demand, internal transportation costs, and crop yield growth (see table A.1). The selection of the policy 33 Concept and structure of GLOBIOM are similar to the U.S. Agricultural shocks was based on a literature review and was Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas model. 34 The land-cover data for 2000 are taken from the Global Land Cover GLC2000. 35 Mosnier et al. (2012), prepared by the IIASA team, is an output of this study. Working Paper 1: Agriculture 51 validated during two regional workshops with local production costs, and production potentials. Crop- experts. Policy shocks were chosen to describe impacts harvested areas and forest carbon stocks have been from both internal and external drivers. The former allocated at the pixel level by downscaling methodol- were (S1) increase in international demand for meat ogies that are subject to error. Uncertainty about land and (S2) increase in international demand for biofuel cover is especially prevalent in the Congo Basin owing factors of deforestation. The latter were (S3) improved to the permanence of clouds and the limited number transport infrastructure, (S4) decrease in fuelwood con- of images in the past. Despite a significant effort to sumption, and (S5) improved agricultural technologies. enhance both availability and quality of the data used Table A.1 describes the scenarios and the main results. in the model (through a data collection campaign in all The objectives were (1) to highlight the mechanisms six countries), limitations persisted. Consequently, we through which deforestation could occur in the Basin decided that the modeling exercise would be primarily (driven by both internal and external drivers), and used to strengthen the understanding of deforestation (2) to test the sensitivity of deforested areas and dynamics and causal chains (internal/external drivers) GHG emissions from deforestation with respect to in the Basin. The quantitative outputs of the model pre- different drivers. sented in table A.1 should be used only as a compari- son of the different scenarios. Validation of these data Data availability and quality were major challenges would require additional statistics at a finer resolution for the modeling approach. Spatially explicit input level and would ideally be available for several years. parameters are mainly related to resource availability, 52 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Table A.1. Policy Shocks Tested with CongoBIOM Scenarios Description   Main Results Baseline Business as usual using standard projections of main Deforestation rate close to the historical rate of deforestation over model drivers. 2020 to 2030 (0.4 Mha per year). Productivity gains avoid about 7 Mha of cropland expansion (the equivalent of the projected cropland expansion). S1: Meat Business as usual with a higher global meat demand. In the The Congo Basin countries remain marginal in meat production. scenario, the demand of animal calories increase by 15% The average deforested area over the 2020–2030 period still compared to FAO projection in 2030. increases by 20% in the Congo compared to the base Basin. As the global price for meat and animal food increases, food and feed imports are reduced and local production increases—leading to deforestation. S2: Biofuels Business as usual with a higher global first-generation The Congo Basin countries remain marginal in global biofuels biofuel demand. The scenario on the biofuel consists feedstock production. to double the demand for biofuels of first generation The average deforested area over the 2020–2030 period still compared to the initial projection of the POLES model increases by 36% in the Congo Basin compared to the base. As in 2030. the global price for oil palm and agriculture product increases, food imports are reduced and local production of oil palm and food increases—leading to deforestation. S3: Infrastructure Business as usual with planned transportation Calories intake per capita increases by 3% compared to the base infrastructures included. Return of political stability, good scenario. governance, and new projects induced a multiplication of The Congo Basin improves its agricultural trade balance with an projects to repair existing transport systems and contribute increase in exports and a reduction in food imports. to a new transportation. The model has included all the projects for which the funding is certain. Total deforested area becomes three times as large (+234%) and emissions from deforestation escalate to more than four times as large. S4: Fuelwood Business as usual with a decrease in fuelwood consumption Within the 0.4 Mha deforested per year on the baseline, fuelwood per inhabitant from 1m3 to 0.8 m3 per year. counts for 30%. A 20% decrease in fuelwood consumption induces therefore a 6% decrease in total deforestation compared with the business-as-usual scenario. S5: Technological Business as usual with increased crop productivity. The Calories intake per capita increases by 30% and imports change—Increase model assumes that this increase is proportional across are reduced. in agriculture all management systems and does not involve higher Increase in emissions from deforestation by 51% over the productivity producing costs for farmers (modeling, for example, 2020–2030 period because consumption increases faster than agricultural mechanization or subsidies of better seeds). The that of crop productivity. yields are doubled for food crops and increased by 25% for cash crops. Source: IIASA 2011 Working Paper 1: Agriculture 53 GLOBIOM MODEL—DETAILED FORMAL DESCRIPTION Objective function (1) Exogenous demand constraints: (2) Product balance (3) Land use balance (4) (5) (6) Recursivity equations (calculated only once the model has been solved for a given period) (7) (8) Irrigation water balance (9) 54 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Greenhouse gas emissions account (10) Variables D demand quantity (tons, m3, kcal) W irrigation water consumption (m3) Q land use/cover change (ha) A land in different activities (ha) B livestock production (kcal) P processed quantity of primary input (tons, m3) T interregionally traded quantity (tons, m3, kcal) E greenhouse gas emissions (tCO2eq) L available land (ha) Functions jdemd demand function (constant elasticity function) jsplw water supply function (constant elasticity function) jlucc land use/cover change cost function (linear function) jtrad trade cost function (constant elasticity function) Parameters tland land management cost except for water ($/ha) tlive livestock production cost ($/kcal) tproc processing cost ($/unit (t or m3) of primary input) dtarg exogenously given target demand (for example, biofuel targets; EJ, m3, kcal) aland crop and tree yields (tons/ha, or m3/ha) alive livestock technical coefficients (1 for livestock calories, negative number for feed requirements [t/kcal]) aproc conversion coefficients (−1 for primary products, positive number for final products, for example, GJ/m3) Linit initial endowment of land of given land use/cover class (ha) Lsuit total area of land suitable for particular land uses/covers (ha) w irrigation water requirements (m3/ha) e emission coefficients (tCO2eq/unit of activity) Indexes r economic region (28 aggregated regions and individual countries) t time period (10-year steps) c country (203) o simulation unit (defined at the intersection of 50 × 50 kilometer grid, homogeneous altitude class, slope class, and soil class) Working Paper 1: Agriculture 55 l land cover/use type (cropland, grassland, managed forest, fast-growing tree plantations, pristine forest, other natural vegetation) s species (37 crops, managed forests, fast-growing tree plantations) m technologies: land use management (low input, high input, irrigated, subsistence, “current�); primary forest products transformation (sawn wood and wood pulp production); and bioenergy conversion ­(first-­ generation ethanol and biodiesel from sugarcane, corn, rapeseed, and soybeans; energy production from forest biomass—fermentation, gasification, and CHP) y outputs (Primary: 30+ crops, sawlogs, pulpwood, other industrial logs, woodfuel, plantations biomass. Processed products: forest products (sawn wood and wood pulp), first-generation biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), second-generation biofuels (ethanol and methanol), other bioenergy (power, heat, and gas) e greenhouse gas accounts: CO2 from land use change; CH4 from enteric fermentation, rice production, and manure management; N2O from synthetic fertilizers and from manure management; and CO2 sav- ings/emissions from biofuels substituting fossil fuels Table A.1 Input Data Used in the CongoBIOM Model Parameter Source Year Land characteristics Skalsky et al. (2008), FAO, USGS, NASA, CRU UEA, JRC, IFPRI, IFA, WISE, etc. Soil classes ISRIC Slope classes Altitude classes SRTM 90m Digital Elevation Data (http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org) Country boundaries Aridity index ICRAF, Zomer et al. (2008) Temperature threshold European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Protected area FORAF Land cover Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) Institute for Environment and 2000 Sustainability Agriculture Area Cropland area (1000 ha) Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) 2000 Institute for 2000 Environment and Sustainability EPIC crop area (1000 ha) IFPRI—You and Wood (2006) Cash crop area (1000 ha) IFPRI—You et al. (2007) 2000 Irrigated area (1000 ha) FAO Average 1998–2002 Yield EPIC crop yield (T/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Cash crop yield(T/ha) IFPRI- You et al. (2007) 2000 Average regional yield (T/ha) FAO Average 1998–2002 Input use Quantity of nitrogen (FTN) (kg/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Quantity of phosphorous (FTP)(kg/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Quantity of water (1000 m³/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Fertilizer application rates IFA (1992) 56 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection (Table A.1 continued) Parameter Source Year Fertilizer application rates FAOSTAT Costs for 4 irrigation systems Sauer et al. (2008) Production Crop production (1000 T) FAO Average 1998–2002 Livestock production FAO Average 1998–2002 Prices Crops (USD/T) FAO Average 1998–2002 Fertilizer price (USD/kg) USDA (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/) Average 2001–05 Forestry FORAF Area under concessions in Congo Basin (1000 ha) Maximum share of sawlogs in the mean annual Kindermann et al. (2006) increment (m³/ha/ year) Harvestable wood for pulp production (m³/ha/year) Kindermann et al. (2006) Mean annual increment (m³/ha/year) Kindermann et al. (2008) based on the Global Forest Resources Assessment (FAO 2006a) Biomass and wood production (m³ or 1000 T) FAO 2000 Harvesting costs Kindermann et al. (2006) Short rotation plantation Havlik et al. (2011) Suitable area (1000 ha) Zomerat et al. (2008) 2010 Maximum annual increment (m³/ha) Alig et al. (2000); Chiba and Nagata (1987); FAO (2006b); Wadsworth (1997) Potential NPP Cramer et al. (1999) Potentials for biomass plantations Zomer et al. (2008) Sapling cost for manual planting Carpentieri et al. (1993); Herzogbaum GmbH (2008) Labor requirements for plantation establishment Jurvélius (1997) Average wages ILO (2007) Unit cost of harvesting equipment and labor FPP (1999); Jirouš ek et al. (2007); Stokes et al. (1986); Wang et al. (2004) Slope factor Hartsough et al. (2001) Ratio of mean PPP adjustment Heston et al. (2006) GHG emissions N2O emissions from application of IPCC Guidelines (1996) synthetic fertilizers (kg CO2/ha) Fertilizer application rates IFA (1992) CO2 savings/emission coefficients CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR (2007), Renewable Fuels Agency (2009) Above- and below-ground living Kindermann et al. (2008) biomass in forests (tCO2eq/ha) Above- and below-ground living biomass in grassland Ruesch and Gibbs (2008) (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ and othernatural land (tCO2eq/ha) ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html) Total non-carbon emissions EPA (2006) (million metric CO2 equivalent) Crop carbon dioxide emissions (tons CO2/hectare) EPA (2006) GHG sequestration in SRP (tCO2/ha) Chiba and Nagata (1987) International Trade MacMap database Bouet et al. (2005) BACI (based on COMTRADE) Gaulier and Zignago (2009) International freight costs Hummels et al. (2001) Working Paper 1: Agriculture 57 Parameter Source Year Infrastructure Existing infrastructure WRI; Referentiel Geographique Commun Planned infrastructure National statistics from Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Gabon and AICD (World Bank) for Democratic Republic of Congo, and Republic of Congo Process Conversion coefficients for sawn wood 4DSM model—Rametsteiner et al. (2007) Conversion coefficients for wood pulp 4DSM model—Rametsteiner et al. (2007) Conversion coefficients and costs for energy Biomass Technology Group (2005); Hamelinck and Faaij (2001); Leduc et al. (2008) Conversion coefficients and costs for ethanol Hermann and Patel (2008) Conversion coefficients and costs for biodiesel Haas et al. (2006) Production costs for sawn wood and wood pulp Internal IIASA database and RISI database (http://www.risiinfo.com) Population Population per country (1,000 inhabitants Russ et al. (2007) average 1999–2001 Estimated total population per region every 10 years GGI Scenario Database (2007)—Grubler et al. (2007) between 2000 and 2100 (1,000 inhabitants) 0.5 degree grid GGI Scenario Database (2007)—Grubler et al. (2007) Population density CIESIN (2005) Demand Initial food demand for crops (1000 T) FBS data—FAO average 1998–2002 Initial feed demand for crops (1000 T) FBS data—FAO average 1998–2002 Crop requirement per animal calories Supply Utilisation Accounts, FAOSTAT average 1998–2002 (T/1,000,000 kcal) Crop energy equivalent (kcal/T) FBS data—FAO Relative change in consumption for meat, animal, FAO (2006a) World agriculture: toward 2030/2050 vegetable, milk (kcal/ capita) (Tables: 2.1, 2.7, 2.8) Own price elasticity Seale, Regmi, and Bernstein (2003) GDP projections GGI Scenario Database (2007) SUA data for crops (1,000 tons) FAO FBS data FAO Bioenergy projections Russ et al. (2007) Biomass and wood consumption FAO (m³/ha or 1,000 T/ha) 30 arcmin as well as country layers. Consequently, DATABASES Homogeneous Response Units (HRU) have been In order to enable global biophysical process modeling delineated by including only those parameters of of agricultural and forest production, a comprehensive landscape, which are almost constant over time. At database—integrating information on soil type, climate, the global scale, we have included five altitude classes, topography, land cover, and crop management—has seven slope classes, and six soil classes. In a second been built (Skalsky et al. 2008). The data are avail- step, the HRU layer is merged with other relevant infor- able from various research institutes (NASA, JRC, FAO, mation, such as a global climate map, land category/ USDA, IFPRI, etc.) and were harmonized into several use map, irrigation map, and so on, which are actually common spatial resolution layers, including 5 and inputs into the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate 58 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection model (Williams 1995; Izaurralde et al. 2006). The one crop to another. The model currently restricts cof- Simulation Units are the intersection between country fee and cocoa production to Sub-Saharan Africa. Initial boundaries, 30 arcmin grid (50 × 50 kilometers), and demand for these crops is set at the observed imports Homogenous Response Unit. in 2000 and is then adjusted for population growth. This assumption means tat neither price changes nor income changes influence demand for coffee and MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE BASELINE cocoa. Population growth: The regional population devel- opment is taken from the International Institute for Demand for energy: The model makes the assump- Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)’s SRES B2 sce- tion that woodfuel use per inhabitant remains constant, nario (Grübler et al. 2007). World population should so that woodfuel demand increases proportionally to increase from 6 billion in 2000 to 8 billion in 2030. In population. Bioenergy consumption comes from the the Congo Basin, the model uses an average annual POLES model (Russ et al. 2007) and assumes that growth rate of 3.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 there is no international trade in biofuels. and 2.2 percent between 2020 and 2030, leading to a total population of 170 million people in 2030. Other assumptions: The baseline is a situation where The model uses the spatially explicit projections of technical parameters remain identical to the 2000 population by 2010, 2020, and 2030 to r ­epresent the level; new results are driven only by increases in food, demand for woodfuel. No difference is made between wood, and bioenergy demand. There is no change in rural and urban markets. yields, annual increments, production costs, transpor- tation costs, or trade policies. Subsistence farming is Exogenous constraints on food consumption: From the also fixed at its 2000 level. No environmental policies intermediate scenario of the SRES B2, GDP per capita are implemented other than the 2000 protected areas. is expected to grow at an average rate of 3 percent This baseline should be regarded as a “status quo� per year from 2000 to 2030 in the Congo Basin. 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Highlands Ranch, CO: Water Resources Publications. Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORKING PAPER 1  |  AGRICULTURE