WPS3856


            Creating an Efficient Financial System:

                   Challenges in a Global Economy


                                            Thorsten Beck




Abstract: Financial sector development fosters economic growth and reduces poverty by
widening and broadening access to finance and allocating society's savings more
efficiently. This paper first discusses three pillars on which sound and efficient financial
systems are built: macroeconomic stability and an effective and reliable contractual and
informational frameworks. The paper then describes three different approaches to
government involvement in the financial sector: the laissez-faire view, the market-failure
view and the market-enabling view.                  Finally, the paper analyzes the sequencing of
financial sector reforms and discusses the benefits and challenges that emerging markets
face when opening their financial systems to international capital markets.




World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3856, February 2006

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the
exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,
even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should
be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely
those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors,
or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at
http://econ.worldbank.org.



* The author is with the World Bank's research department. This paper was written for
the G20 Seminar on Economic Growth in Pretoria, August 2005. The author is grateful to
Robert Cull, Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Patrick Honohan for useful comments and Ed Al-
Hussainy for outstanding support.



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1. Finance: pro-growth and pro-poor

         Financial markets and institutions arise to alleviate market frictions that prevent the direct

pooling of society's savings and channeling to investment projects. Well developed financial

systems ease the exchange of goods and services by providing payment services; help mobilize

and pool savings from a large number of investors; acquire and process information about

enterprises and possible investment projects, thus allocating society's savings to their most

productive use; monitor investments and exert corporate governance; and help diversify and

reduce liquidity and intertemporal risk (Levine, 1997 and 2005). However, there is a large

variation across countries in the efficiency with which financial institutions and markets reduce

transaction costs and information asymmetries, with important repercussions for economic

growth and development. Private credit to GDP was 173% in the U.S. in 2003, but only 2% in

Mozambique. 1 While financial institutions in the U.S. have recently introduced 40 year

mortgage loans, in many developing countries lending for housing is restricted to five year loans

if at all available. While in Albania there are four loans per 1,000 people, there are almost 800

loans per 1,000 people in Poland (Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Martinez Peria, 2005). While

interest rate spreads ­ the difference between lending and deposit rates ­ vary typically between

2% and 4% in developed financial systems, they are over 30% in Brazil (Laeven and Majnoni,

2005).

         Countries with better developed financial systems, i.e. financial markets and institutions

that more effectively channel society's savings to their most productive use, experience faster

economic growth. 2 Figure 1 summarizes a well-established body of empirical evidence;

countries with higher levels of credit to the private sector relative to GDP experienced higher

average annual real GDP per capita growth rates over the period 1980 to 2003. This relationship

1Private Credit to GDP is a standard measure of financial intermediary development and is the ratio of claims by
deposit money banks and other financial institutions on the private, domestic non-financial sector to GDP.
2To be sure, there is also a feedback of faster economic growth on the development of the financial system.

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is not only robust to controlling for other factors that are associated with economic growth, but is

also robust to controlling for the reverse causation from faster economic growth to financial

development and to the relationship being driven by a third factor. While Figure 1 shows the

relationship between private sector lending and GDP per capita growth, other measures of

financial development, such as the ratio of M2 to GDP or the turnover ratio in stock markets,

yield similar results (Levine, Loayza and Beck, 2000; Beck and Levine, 2004). These findings

are confirmed by cross-country, panel and by time-series estimation techniques (see Levine,

2005, for an overview).

        Financial sector development helps economic growth through more efficient resource

allocation and productivity growth rather than through the scale of investment or savings

mobilization (Beck, Levine and Loayza, 2000). Finance fosters economic development by

widening access to external finance and helping those industries and firms most reliant on

external financial resources (Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 1998; Rajan and Zingales, 1998),

as well as by allowing smaller firms to overcome financing constraints and grow faster (Beck,

Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2005; Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven and Levine, 2004).

Finance improves resource allocation and increases the efficiency with which investment funds

are reallocated across industries as demand changes (Love, 2003 and Wurgler, 2000). Financial

development has also an important role in dampening the impact of external shocks on the

domestic economy (Beck, Lundberg and Majnoni, 2006; Aghion, Banerjee and Manova, 2005;

Raddatz, 2006). The development of the financial sector is a decisive determinant of the

structure of the trade balance, giving countries a comparative advantage in manufacturing and

within manufacturing in those industries most dependent on external finance (Beck, 2002, 2003).

Finally, recent cross-country evidence has shown that it is the lowest income quintile that stands

to gain most from financial development; by reducing income inequality and fostering economic

growth, financial markets and institutions help reduce poverty (Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and

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Levine, 2004, Honohan, 2004). Figure 2 illustrates the empirical cross-country relationship

between the level of financial intermediary development and poverty reduction: countries with

higher levels of private credit to GDP experienced faster reductions in the share of the population

living on less than one dollar a day over the 1980s and 1990s. There is thus no trade-off between

pro-growth and pro-poor in the case of policies that enhance a sound and efficient financial

system.

         While Figures 1 and 2 show the importance of private sector lending for economic

growth and poverty alleviation, private credit is not a policy variable itself. To the contrary,

bigger is not always better! A rapid increase in private sector lending, not supported by the

macroeconomic, contractual and informational framework discussed below, can result in fragility

and banking crises, as experienced by many countries over the past 30 years (Demirguc-Kunt

and Detragiache, 1999; Caprio and Klingebiel, 1997).3

         While policy makers and academics have long discussed the relative benefits of the

Anglo-Saxon style market-based, arms-length financial system vs. the German-Japanese style

relationship, bank-based system, cross-country evidence has not confirmed the importance of

financial structure for economic development. It is the provision of financial services, rather

than who provides them that matters for economic development (Beck and Levine, 2002;

Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2002; Levine, 2002). This does not imply that financial

structure ­ the degree to which markets or banks provide financial services ­ does not vary with

economic and financial development; financial markets gain in importance relative to banks as

financial systems develop (Boyd and Smith, 1998; Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2001). However,

there is no evidence that systematically favoring the development of banks over securities

markets or the converse will speed financial and economic development. The focus should


3See Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache (2005) for an overview over the crisis containment and resolution literature.
See Loayza and Ranciere (2005) and Ranciere, Tornell and Westerman (2005) for an empirical investigation of the
trade-offs between financial development and crisis.

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rather be on the underlying policies and institutions that allow both banks and markets to

effectively intermediate society's savings.

        Given the importance of financial development for economic growth and poverty

reduction, policy makers and academics alike are interested in the building blocks for a sound

and effective financial system. The next section will discuss three important policy areas for

financial sector development and cross-country experience in these areas: macroeconomic

stability and an effective and reliable contractual and informational framework. What, however,

is the role of government in the financial sector, if any? Section 3 describes three different

approaches to government involvement in the financial sector: the laissez-faire view, the market-

failure view and the market-enabling view. Few if any financial sector reforms can be

implemented overnight, which raises the question of sequencing and prioritizing. Section 4

offers some lessons on implementing and sequencing of financial sector reforms. Section 5

addresses the challenges arising for policy makers in the financial sector in a more and more

globalized world and section 6 concludes.

        The analysis and policy recommendations discussed in the remainder of this paper are

based on cross-country comparisons, and on past success stories and failures. It is important to

note, however, that this paper represents the best judgment based on current knowledge and

empirical research and should not be seen as a dogma that has been definitely settled for all

times. While I try to cover a broad range of issues, there are areas that I cannot cover. More

specifically, I will relate to international finance only to the extent that they affect domestic

financial intermediation, but not touch on macroeconomic aspects of financial integration.




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2. Pillars of an effective and stable financial system

        This section discusses three building blocks for a sound and effective financial system.

Cross-country analysis and specific country examples have shown the importance of

macroeconomic stability and of the contractual and informational frameworks.4 Similarly, the

market structure and the financial safety net and more specifically the regulation and supervision

of institutions and markets are important for deepening and broadening; the discussion of these

items, however, will be left to the next section where I discuss the role of government.

        Financial contracts consist of an exchange of money today for the promise of money

tomorrow, thus an enormous leap of faith into an uncertain future. The intertemporal nature of

the contract and several market frictions make financial contracts critically different from other

contracts in a market-based economy. First, there is uncertainty whether today's contracted

repayment (such as interest or insurance payout) or expected repayment (such as dividends or

capital gains in the case of equity claims) will be the same in terms of tomorrow's consumption

units due to inflation. Second, information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders make the

assessment of viable investment projects difficult and lead to principal-agent problems and moral

hazard risk, i.e. the possibility that the borrower will not act in the best interest of the lender.

Similarly, market frictions prevent the costless enforcement of contracts, again increasing

incentives for borrowers to deviate from contracted promises.5

        These market frictions give rise to financial institutions and markets. Financial

institutions take on the role of "delegated monitors" (Diamond, 1984) for savers vis-à-vis

borrowers; financial markets allow the transformation of claims on multi-year illiquid investment

projects into liquid tradable securities. Financial institutions acquire and process information

about the creditworthiness of their borrowers and the success probabilities of their investment

4There is also an extensive literature on historic determinants of financial sector development, such as the colonial
experience, and the impact of political institutions on finance. See Beck and Levine (2005) for an overview.
5See Levine (1997, 2005) for an overview over theoretical models discussing these market frictions.

                                                            6

projects, effectively doing so on behalf of their depositors, while prices in financial markets

reflect the evaluation of diverse investors of the issuers' business prospects. While market

participants have developed techniques to overcome market frictions, their efficiency critically

depends on the macroeconomic stability and an effective contractual and informational

framework, as we will discuss in the following.




2.1. Macroeconomic stability

        Given the intertemporal character of financial contracts, macroeconomic stability is a

prerequisite for financial development and a first building block for an effective financial system.

A low and stable rate of inflation provides incentives for financial rather than non-financial

forms of savings. It is also conducive to long-term contracting and thus long-term savings and

investment by providing monetary certainty. Savers are more likely to entrust their savings for a

given interest rate if they can be ensured the expected return in terms of real consumption units.

Similarly, monetary stability allows investors to adequately compute the return on projects and

commit to payments in real terms. Theory and empirical cross-country comparisons have shown

that countries with lower and more stable inflation rates experience higher levels of banking and

stock market development (Boyd, Levine and Smith, 2001). This is illustrated in Figure 3,

which plots Private Credit to GDP over the period 1980 to 2003 against the average annual

inflation rate for the same period. Further, high inflation is correlated with a higher probability of

systemic banking distress (Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache, 2005). Similarly, a controlled fiscal

government deficit can enhance financial sector deepening by avoiding crowding-out effects of

government spending needs on private sector lending and investment.




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2.2. Contractual framework

        Financial contracts depend on the certainty of legal rights of borrowers, creditors and

outside investors and the predictability and speed of their fair and impartial enforcement. Private

property rights and enforcement of contracts ­ both vis-à-vis other private parties and vis-à-vis

the government - are thus a second crucial pillar of an effective financial system. Savers are only

willing to relinquish control over their savings if they can be sure to receive principal and

contracted interest in return. Outside financiers ­ be they equity or debt holders ­ will only be

willing to invest in companies and projects if their legal claims and rights are upheld. This points

to both creditor rights and minority shareholder rights as being critical for external financing, as

well as the role of corporate governance in both financial institutions and non-financial

corporations. Shareholders do not only need sufficient information, but also the possibility to

influence company decisions directly through votes on critical corporate decisions and indirectly

by determining members of the Board of Directors that will ensure that management acts in the

best interest of the equity holders. Critical in the relationship between minority shareholders and

controlling shareholder and management are often problems of looting and of tunneling, i.e. the

possibility for the controlling shareholder to move assets outside the firms, and the remedial

actions that the legal system offers minority shareholders against it (Johnson et al., 2000).

Creditors will have to be ensured of the fair and quick enforcement of their contracts if the

borrower defaults. This implies the possibility of both enforcing contracts outside bankruptcy as

well as maintaining creditor rights within the bankruptcy procedure.      Effective legal systems

provide for timely, efficient and impartial resolution of insolvent borrowers through the efficient

liquidation of unviable enterprises and the rehabilitation of viable businesses.

        International comparisons have provided ample evidence for the critical role of legal

system efficiency and its different elements for financial sector development. Countries with

better creditor rights protection and more efficient judicial systems experience higher levels of

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financial development (La Porta et al., 1997; Levine, Loayza and Beck, 2000, Djankov, McLiesh

and Shleifer, 2005). Countries whose legal systems more effectively prevent looting of

corporations by controlling shareholders suffered milder financial crises in 1997-98 (Acemoglu

et al., 2003). More effective legal systems provide for more flexible, adaptable and rapid

conflict resolution rather than rigid, lengthy statutorily based processes with positive

repercussions for firms' access to finance (Djankov et al., 2003; Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and

Levine, 2005). Cross-country comparisons have shown that financial systems that can rely on

more effective legal systems, have lower interest rate spreads and are more efficient (Demirguc-

Kunt, Laeven and Levine, 2004; Laeven and Majnoni, 2005). The effect of legal system

efficiency on financial intermediation is illustrated in Figures 4 to 6, where we show the positive

relationship between creditor rights and Private Credit to GDP (Figure 4), the negative

relationship between the time period it takes to enforce contracts and Private Credit to GDP

(Figure 5) and the positive relationship between better protection of minority shareholder rights

and the stock market capitalization to GDP (Figure 6).6




2.3. Informational framework

         As financial markets and institutions arise due to information asymmetries that prevent

direct interaction between multiple savers and investors, effective financial intermediation

depends on tools to reduce these information asymmetries. The informational framework is thus

a third fundamental requirement for effective financial intermediation. International experience

has shown that the sharing of credit information sharing is important to reduce adverse selection

problems and foster competition in the financial system. Credit registries that give easy and

reliable access to clients' credit history and both negative and positive information can


6There is a literature that discusses the direct impact of property right protection and contract enforcement on
entrepreneurs' investment decisions and firm growth (Johnson, McMillan and Woodruff, 2002, Claessens and
Laeven, 2003; Cull and Xu, 2005).

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dramatically reduce the time and costs of obtaining such information from individual sources and

therefore reduce the total costs of financial intermediation. Credit reporting makes borrower

quality much more transparent, which benefits good borrowers and increases the cost of

defaulting on one's obligations. It helps borrowers build up a credit history ­ "reputation

collateral" - and thus eases access to credit. Credit registries are especially important for SMEs

as their creditworthiness is harder to evaluate and they have less visibility and transparency

relative to large enterprises. Consumer rights to access their information and challenge

erroneous information have to be effectively protected to make such a system a widely

acceptable part of the financial system infrastructure and balance consumer rights with efficiency

considerations. International comparisons have shown that countries with better developed

systems of credit information sharing enjoy higher levels of financial development and their

firms report lower financing obstacles (Jappelli and Pagano, 2002; Love and Mylenko, 2003;

Djankov, McLiesh and Shleifer, 2005; see Miller, 2003, for an overview). Figure 7 illustrates the

positive relationship between the efficiency of credit information sharing and Private Credit to

GDP.

        While many countries have built up credit information systems within their central bank

or supervisory authority as part of their early warning system to monitor financial institutions, it

is important to keep in mind the effect of credit information sharing on the competitiveness of

the financial sector and on access to credit; this, however, implies the inclusion of all claims

independent of their size, the inclusion of all financial institutions and even non-financial

institutions such as utility companies to reap the maximum benefit. Further, effective credit

information systems can form the basis for the more effective use of technology in credit

decision processes, such as credit scoring techniques.

        Similarly, more accurate and transparent financial statements can help reduce information

asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. Financial statements that give an accurate picture

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of a firm's financial situation reduce screening and monitoring costs for financial institutions and

increase the efficiency of resource allocation. Cross-country comparisons have shown a positive

association of more transparent and comprehensive accounting standards with higher levels of

financial development (Levine, Loayza and Beck, 2000 and La Porta et al., 1997). Similarly,

transparent and more informative financial statements lower information costs for equity

investors and can foster stock market development and liquidity (Levine, 2003).

        While the policy recommendations for the contractual and informational framework seem

somewhat biased towards external fund providers rather than users, policy makers have to keep

in mind that the long-term interests of users would not be served if deficiencies in the underlying

rules make would-be-providers withhold their funds. Lower information asymmetries strengthen

the position of borrowers vis-à-vis lenders; similarly, stronger property rights allow borrowers to

use their assets more effectively as collateral and thus negotiating card in their relationship with

lenders.




3. The role of government in financial service provision

        The role of the government in financial service provision has been controversial. While

most economists agree by now on the role of government in providing a stable monetary

environment and at least some government involvement in the contractual and informational

framework, there has been an ongoing debate over the past decades on the role of government as

financial service provider and on the regulation and supervision of financial service providers by

government. This section presents three different approaches to government involvement in the

financial sector: the laissez-faire view, the market-failure view and the market-enabling view.




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3.1. The laissez-faire approach

        Under the laissez-faire or invisible-hand approach, there is no role for government

involvement in the financial system. Market discipline rules the relationship between banks and

depositors and between banks and borrowers. Depositors and creditors of financial institutions

monitor them and exercise market discipline by either withdrawing funds or demanding higher

interest rates. Failing banks are taken over by more successful banks or are liquidated. Similarly,

banks monitor and discipline borrowers; borrowers unable or unwilling to repay are liquidated or

rehabilitated through a restructuring process. Under the pure laissez-faire approach, there is thus

no role for government involvement.

        A modified laissez-faire approach stresses the importance of macroeconomic stability and

the contractual and informational framework and might see a role for government in providing

these necessary infrastructure elements for financial intermediation.

        The laissez-faire approach has been criticized for ignoring market imperfections and

failures that lead to a break-down of bank-depositor and bank-borrower relationships as

envisioned in theory. Depositors are not able to monitor banks as they do not have the means to

do so or the costs are too high relative to the claims vis-à-vis the banks. Especially small

depositors have to be protected against loss of their life-time savings. Banks, on the other hand,

have to be protected against runs by uninformed depositors that would force liquidation of long-

term investment projects financed by bank loans. There are also market frictions in the bank-

borrower relationship that prevent optimal resource allocation.7 Financial institutions might not

necessarily invest in the sectors with the highest social return. Banks­ due to their role as debt

holders ­are claimed to have an inherent bias toward conservative low-risk low return

investments, stymieing innovation and growth. By acquiring inside information about firms,

powerful banks can extract informational rents from firms, thus reducing their incentives to

7See Levine (2005) for a more detailed discussion.

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undertake profitable investments. Further, short-term profit-oriented banks might force

borrowers into bankruptcy that suffer only from short-term liquidity problems or they might not

even lend to borrowers with projects that require a long gestation period.




3.2. From market- to government failures

       Given market failures in the financial systems, governments in many developed and

emerging economies took a very active if not interventionist role in the financial system in the

1960s and 1970s.8 Through ownership of financial institutions governments hoped to enhance

savings mobilization, direct credit to priority sectors, and make financial services affordable to

larger parts of the population. Through ceilings on lending interest rates governments hoped to

reduce lending costs for borrowers, while floors for deposits interest rate were to provide

incentives to savers. Credit quotas imposed even on private providers were supposed to

guarantee that financial resources flowed to priority and underserved sectors, such as agriculture

and small-scale enterprises. Through specialized institutions, such as agricultural banks or

housing finance companies, governments hoped to provide more financial resources for these

sectors.

       The financial safety net also became an important part of government intervention in the

financial system. Powerful supervisors were supposed to not only prevent fragility, but also

guide banks in their business decisions through regulation and supervision. Deposit insurance

was introduced in many countries to prevent bank runs and protect small savers. In many cases,

through the dominating presence of government-owned banks and politically connected private

banks, this limited explicit guarantee was extended to an implicit guarantee for all bank creditors

and depositors and often even owners of financial institutions.




8See Fry (1988) for a discussion of these policies and numerous examples.

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        Government solutions to overcome market failures rely on two crucial assumptions.

First, governments know better than markets, and, second, governments act in the best interest of

society. Both assumptions relate to the public-interest view, the idea that public authorities

maximize social welfare and have the necessary tools to do so.9 Both assumptions have been

proven wrong across the developed and developing world. Bureaucrats have turned out to have

limited knowledge and expertise to run financial institutions and systems and they do not

maximize society's welfare, but are rather subject to political and regulatory capture, i.e.

influence by the political sphere and the regulated entities, as hypothesized by the private-interest

view.

        Bureaucrats as bankers have failed almost everywhere, but especially in developing

countries; economies with a higher share of government-owned banks experience lower levels of

financial development, more concentrated lending and lower economic growth and are more

likely to suffer systemic fragility (La Porta et al, 2002; Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2004). This is

illustrated in Figure 8, which shows the negative association of Private Credit to GDP with the

share of majority government-owned banks in the banking system. Bureaucrats have neither the

market knowledge nor the right incentives to properly screen and monitor borrowers and thus

ensure the allocation of society's savings to its most productive use. Being owner, borrower and

regulator of an institution at the same time, governments face obvious conflicts of interest.

Experience in many countries has shown that government-owned banks are often used by

politicians to finance commercially unviable government projects or state-owned enterprises.

Politicians use government-owned banks for electoral purposes; experience across developing

countries has pointed to increased lending in election years and especially to contested districts

(Cole, 2005; Dinc, 2005). The resulting non-performing loans (NPLs) have resulted in large



9For a in-depth discussion on the public- and private interest views in the context of financial regulation and
supervision, see Barth, Caprio and Levine (2006).

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fiscal costs and often in banking crises (Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2004; Caprio and Martinez

Peria, 2002). Further, the negative impact of government-owned banks spreads often beyond

these institutions to the rest of the sector: there are efficiency losses as private sector banks face

less competition and governance problems often spread beyond government-owned banks. An

explicit guarantee for government-owned banks is often equated with an implicit guarantee for

privately-owned banks. Cross-country comparisons have shown that there are fewer possibilities

for the private sector to monitor in countries with a higher share of government-owned banks

(Caprio and Honohan, 2004).

        Worse than government ownership, however, can be a failed privatization process.

Poorly designed and executed privatization processes can lead to fragility and banking crises as

numerous examples have shown over the past 30 years. Studies of privatization processes have

shown the benefits of privatizing government-owned banks, but also the pitfalls (compare

Clarke, Cull and Shirley 2005, and other papers in the same issue). Among the lessons learned

from privatization of government-owned banks around the globe are that it is important to open

the books early in the process to thus make the cost of continuous government ownership to the

taxpayer clear to the public and thus potentially create political pressure for privatization.

However, this also points to the recommendation to not recapitalize a bank before privatizing to

thus not ease the political pressure to privatize. While privatization should not be delayed to

minimize fiscal and efficiency losses, fire sales might lead to privatizations to investors that are

not fit and proper or have not adequately assessed the situation of the bank, which might result in

subsequent fragility. There are advantages to divest to a strategic investor who can bring the

necessary management and financial know-how, especially in weak institutional environment

and to open the privatization process to both qualified domestic and foreign bidders. By selling

to reputable foreign banks, financial systems can benefit from expertise and from additional

resources. Finally, country studies have shown the advantages of full rather than partial

                                                    15

privatization to reduce possible future government influence. By giving up any ownership stake,

government signals that it does not plan to intervene after privatization and that it will not bail

out the new private investors should things go wrong. Privatization, however, is not a panacea,

as privatizing into a non-competitive environment where other elements of the framework

discussed earlier are not in place will not necessarily bring benefits in terms of more private

sector lending.

        Credit quotas and interest caps and floors have impeded the efficient allocation of

society's savings to its most productive uses and have especially hurt "smaller" depositors and

borrowers (Fry, 1988). In case of binding ceilings, banks are prevented from charging adequate

risk premiums for riskier and more opaque borrowers or from recovering fixed transaction costs

through a mark-up on smaller loan amounts. Further, competition between credit institutions and

for more deposits is hampered as financial institutions have no incentives to become more

efficient or to attract more deposits if they cannot finance more marginal customers. Similarly,

given fixed transaction costs in financial intermediation, floors on deposit interest rates make

savers with small transaction amount unattractive for financial institutions. Credit quotas have

resulted in fragmentation of credit markets and higher costs for non-priority sectors. In many

cases, financial institutions have found ways around these restrictions, but at a high costs and

with consequent efficiency losses.

        While many countries have adopted systems of deposit insurance over the past decades

with the intent to reduce the risks of bank runs, protect small depositors and thus create a stable

and sound banking system, the moral hazard risks coupled with weak regulatory and supervisory

frameworks have often resulted in the opposite. By bailing out not only small, but also large

depositors and creditors, poorly designed deposit insurance schemes have reduced market

discipline, which in the absence of effective bank supervision has often resulted in imprudent

and unchecked risk taking by banks with subsequent fragility (Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache,

                                                  16

2002; Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga, 2004). Further, cross-country comparisons have not

confirmed the assertion that deposit insurance is crucial for financial sector development; to the

opposite, countries with more generous deposit insurance schemes are found to have lower levels

of financial savings and private sector lending (Cull, Senbet and Sorge, 2005).

        While strengthening of supervisors' intervention powers has been at the forefront of

efforts improving the supervisory framework, there is little cross-country evidence that

empowering supervisors alone will bring stability. There is evidence, however, that powerful

bank supervisors might be associated with higher levels of corruption. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt

and Levine (2006a) show that firms in countries with more powerful bank supervisors, i.e.

supervisors that directly monitor, discipline, and influence banks, are more likely to report major

obstacles due to corruption in lending. On the other hand, a supervisory strategy that focuses on

empowering private monitoring of banks by forcing banks to disclose accurate information to the

private sector tends to lower the degree to which corruption of bank officials is an obstacle to

firms raising external finance.




3.3. Enabling markets ­ a new approach

        Rather than replacing market failures with government failures, policies are required that

address market failures directly and try to reduce market frictions. This new approach is not a

laissez-faire approach as it does not leave the market to itself; rather, it relies on the government

to enable and develop markets. It starts from the observation that frictions might prevent markets

from functioning well or might even prevent markets from existing in the first place. However,

this approach does not seek to replace missing or poorly functioning markets, but rather create

the conditions for markets to emerge and function properly. It relies on private institutions to

provide financial services efficiently but takes into account their incentive structure. This

approach foresees a government that works with the market, but does not leave it to the market.

                                                  17

Rather, it provides the framework that enables private agents to contract by ensuring

macroeconomic stability and an effective contractual and informational framework. However, it

also considers incentives; by enabling and fostering market discipline, it minimizes aggressive

risk taking by bank owners and managers.

        While the government should not be a direct provider of financial services under this new

approach, it has a critical role in ensuring a competitive and contestable financial system. Cross-

country comparisons have shown that countries with lower entry barriers into the financial

system, fewer restrictions on banking and a higher share of foreign-owned banks have more

competitive, more efficient and more stable banking systems (Claessens and Laeven, 2004;

Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2004, Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven, Levine, 2004; Beck,

Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2006b). Allowing or even encouraging entry by sound and prudent

new institutions, whether they be domestic or foreign, is important to maintain contestability.

But the role of the government might have to be even more active. The setting up of credit

reference bureaus, for example, often requires involvement of the government to overcome

resistance by financial institutions as especially the sharing of positive information can diminish

information rents of incumbent banks. Avoiding segmentation in the financial sector through

expanding access to the payment system or the credit information sharing system beyond the

commercial banks to bank-like institutions such as cooperatives or regulated microfinance

institutions can help the financial system cater to marginal customers in all financial services.

        The financial safety net plays a critical role in supporting a stable and effective banking

system. Given the maturity transformation ­ using deposits withdrawable at short notice to

finance medium- to long-term loans ­ and given the limited transparency of financial institutions,

banks have been subject to special regulation and supervision not applied to non-financial

corporations. Given the put-option character of bank equity, bank shareholders participate only

in the up-side risk of the bank business and have therefore strong incentives to take too

                                                  18

aggressive risks, ignoring sound and prudent risk management. Effective bank regulation and

supervision, as well as market discipline exercised by large depositors and creditors can keep

bank owners and managers in check.

        While there is little evidence that empowering intervention powers of bank supervisors

enhances bank stability, there is evidence that enabling the private sector to monitor and

discipline banks has positive repercussions for the efficiency, stability and overall development

of the financial system (Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2004). Further, private sector monitoring can

have both direct and indirect positive effects on financial stability (Caprio and Honohan, 2004).

Monitoring and disciplining by market participants such as large depositors and other creditors

has the advantage of many eyes instead of just one as in the case of supervisors; further, many

eyes might be less subject to political pressure than the supervisory authority. In addition, market

signals in the form of deposit interest rates, yields on subordinated debt or equity prices of

publicly listed banks moving in response to risk taking and performance of banks provide

additional information to bank supervisors to act on. This signaling mechanism can only work,

of course, if coupled with effective official intervention into institutions that the market has

identified as weak. The interaction of market and supervisory monitoring and disciplining can

thus be powerful in reigning in bankers' incentives to take aggressive risks. La Porta, Lopez-de-

Silanes and Shleifer (2006) find a similarly positive effect of private monitoring and disciplining

for stock market development; laws that mandate disclosure and facilitate private enforcement

through liability rules foster stock market development, while there is little evidence for a

positive effect of public enforcement.

        Political independence and accountability and protection of supervisors from frivolous

law suits by financial institutions and others are important to prevent political and regulatory

capture. Most importantly, however, is the lack of a government guarantee for shareholders or



                                                  19

large depositors or creditors as this undermines the incentives to monitor banks and consequently

the market prices reflecting banks' risk taking.

        While the finding that explicit deposit insurance is associated with more rather than less

bank fragility does not necessarily imply an abandonment of the idea of deposit insurance in

countries where it already exists, careful design and timing of the introduction of deposit

insurance is critical. Limited coverage and exclusion of certain groups can create a class of

creditors ­ such as holders of subordinated debt, other financial institutions, insiders or large

corporations ­ that have the means to monitor banks and exercise market discipline. Aligning the

interests and incentives of banks and the managers and owners of the deposit insurance scheme

by funding and administering the scheme privately, with limited if any government back-up

funding, can further reduce moral hazard risks. Finally, linking the deposit insurance scheme

effectively to the bank failure resolution system can be critical in reducing the moral hazard risk

induced by explicit deposit insurance and in fostering market and supervisory discipline (Beck

and Laeven, 2006). The main objective of an incentive-compatible bank failure resolution

system is the protection of financial intermediation, i.e. small depositors, borrower-lender

relationships and the payment system, rather than to protect an individual institution and its

shareholders.




4. Sequencing of financial sector reforms

        Building a sound and effective financial system cannot be achieved overnight, but rather

requires a mix of short-term policy measures, medium-term reform processes and long-term

institution building. Abolishing interest rate ceilings and floors, eliminating directed credit

programs and imposing transparency requirements are policy reforms that can be speedily

legislated, regulated and implemented, as the experience in many developed and developing



                                                 20

countries has shown. Other processes can take longer, such as privatizing government-owned

banks and establishing a system of credit information sharing. Reforming legal systems and

building regulatory and supervisory capacity are long-term institution building processes.

        Given that different reform measures can be undertaken only at different speeds, it is

important to consider the interdependence of these different reforms; should all reforms be

undertaken as soon as they can, independent of how fast results can be achieved or should

reforms be timed so that their results can be achieved at approximately the same time? This

seemingly technical discussion is not independent of political considerations. On the one hand,

implementing some reforms rapidly can result in a certain momentum to avoid reversal.

Liberalizing financial markets can create contestability and a group of winners with a stake in

further reform. Achieving some early gains can thus create momentum for further reforms. On

the other hand, implementing reforms hastily and without taking into account the

interdependence of reforms in different areas can lead to fragility or disappointments and thus a

backlash against the original reforms and even more against further reforms.

        Many countries have liberalized and privatized in the 1980s and 1990s with mixed

results. In the absence or the slow implementation of institution building, many economies have

faced systemic financial fragility in subsequent years (Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache, 1999).

Weak regulatory and supervisory frameworks, combined with generous explicit deposit

insurance or an implicit guarantee by governments have resulted in aggressive risk taking by

banks, unchecked by market or supervisory discipline, often without the necessary lending skills

and the necessary contractual and informational framework. Banking crises in Argentina, Chile,

and Mexico in 1980s and 1990s have been attributed to these factors. These lending booms

together with economic volatility have often resulted in systemic fragility with banking and even

currency crises as consequence. This post-liberalization experience has been very ably

summarized by Diaz Alejandro as "Good-Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash"

                                                21

(Diaz Alejandro, 1985). Many Sub-Saharan African countries, on the other hand, that have

opened their banking systems to reputable foreign banks, often through the privatization of failed

government banks, and have liberalized interest rates and credit allocation, have experienced

more stability and efficiency but also less intermediation and less access to financial services. In

the absence of an effective contractual and informational framework and thus lending

opportunities at a reasonable risk-return combination, banks have preferred to invest in

government securities or abroad. This has often led to claims of failed financial liberalization

processes and the renewed calls for government interventions in the financial sector.

        Limited gains in financial intermediation or financial fragility following liberalization of

financial markets do not necessarily signal the failure of financial sector reform, but they carry

important lessons. These experiences underline the importance of liberalization at a pace

consistent with regulatory and supervisory capacity in the country. Imposing temporary

restrictions on certain activities with a clear timetable to eventually abolish them might help. It

is important to align the incentives with the risks. Better possibilities for bankers to take risks

and earn higher returns have to come with the clear understanding that they cannot shift the risks

over to depositors or taxpayers. Similarly, the reform process has to be handled with the right

expectations. While market-based financial service provision is a necessary, it is not a sufficient

condition for deep and broad financial systems. Governments have an important role in enabling

markets by providing for competition as well as in creating markets by reforming the contractual

and informational framework that allows provision of financial services beyond the few rich,

well-known and connected. While relying on private providers and the market price mechanism

as basic fundaments of the financial sector, the economy at large can only reap the benefits of a

sound and effective financial system if the necessary infrastructure elements are in place.

        The disappointment with the reform outcomes, however, also carries important

repercussions for the discussion on the role of government in the financial sector. The

                                                  22

disappointment with financial sector reforms have often led to calls for renewed government

intervention in the financial sector, either by re-establishing government-owned financial

institutions or by a "tighter" financial safety net. While this would be a step back, it underlines

the necessity for government to take a more "pro-active" role by considering specific bottlenecks

that prevent private agents to provide financial services even if macroeconomic stability,

contractual and informational efficiency and free entry into financial intermediation have been

achieved. It underlines the role of government in enabling and creating markets, as discussed in

section 3.3; a discussion, however, that is just starting and that will be informed by trials and

errors.




5. Challenges for financial systems in a global economy

        One important aspect of liberalizing financial systems is liberalizing financial flows

across borders. This implies both free entry of foreign providers and the possibility for agents to

purchase financial services abroad. It implies free capital flows in the form of debt and equity

between foreign and domestic agents across borders and within countries. In the following, I

will touch briefly on some aspects of international financial liberalization as they refer to the

financial sector and financial sector policies; for broader discussions of these issues, see Clarke

et al. (2003) and Bekaert and Harvey (2003).

        More and more developed and emerging economies allow the entry of foreign financial

service providers, with so diverse countries as Botswana, Czech Republic, Hungary and Mexico

and Poland seeing foreign-owned banks take more than 80% of the banking market.10 In many

developing countries, foreign bank entry has mostly occurred through the privatization process

of failed government-owned or private domestic banks, with the hope that foreign banks bring in



10Data are for end 2001; source: Barth, Caprio and Levine (2006).

                                                       23

not only resources but through higher efficiency also more competitive pressure on the domestic

banking sector. On the other hand, concerns have been expressed that a larger presence of

foreign banks might reduce access to credit especially for SMEs, as these firms rely more on

relationship lending.

        Cross-country evidence has confirmed that foreign-owned banks are more efficient than

domestic banks in developing countries and that foreign bank entry does indeed exert

competitive pressure on domestic banks to become more efficient (Claessens, Demirguc-Kunt

and Huizinga, 2001). While there is some evidence that foreign banks might have the potential to

transmit shocks from the home to their host countries, their lending does generally not decline

during financial crises in their host countries (Dages, Goldber and Kinney, 2000; Peek and

Rosengren, 2000). The empirical evidence on the effect of foreign bank entry on access to credit

has been at most mixed if not favorable. On the one hand, borrowers in countries with higher

foreign bank presence report lower financing obstacles and are more likely to have access to

bank credit (Clarke, Cull and Martinez Peria, 2001). Foreign bank entry helps reduce related

lending and its negative effects on resource allocation (Giannetti and Ongena, 2005; Bonin and

Imai, 2005). On the other hand, research on specific developing countries has shown that

foreign-owned banks are less likely to lend to more opaque borrowers and rely more on hard

rather than soft information (Mian, 2003). However, evidence from Eastern Europe has shown

that while foreign banks tend to initially focus on large corporate clients, they go down market

over time, increasing retail and small business lending (De Haas and Naaborg, 2005) While the

debate on domestic versus foreign banks has often focused on relationship vs. transaction-based

lending techniques, recent evidence shows that as new transaction-based lending techniques,

such as leasing, factoring and credit scoring, have been developed, relationship lending has

become less important for SME lending (Berger and Udell, 2006). These techniques, however,



                                                 24

might require certain expertise and fixed start-up costs, which gives large and potentially

foreign-owned banks an advantage over smaller domestic banks.

        Foreign bank entry can help, but is not sufficient to improve the efficiency of

intermediation and the availability of credit. The presence of dominant government-owned

banks reduces competitive pressures; the absence of a sound contractual and informational

framework reduces the feasibility of small business lending.11 The absence of other important

elements of the financial infrastructure thus impedes countries from reaping the full benefits of

opening their markets to foreign providers of financial services.

        International capital flows have increased substantially over the past years, especially

portfolio flows and foreign direct investment. More and more emerging markets have decided to

open their economies for inward and outward equity and debt investment. Allowing outward

investment helps private agents diversify investment and earn a higher return at lower risk. This

is especially important for mutual and pension funds with limited long-term investment

possibilities in the local markets. These limitations on investment and risk diversification

possibilities are especially striking for small economies with limited domestic possibilities of risk

diversification and high risk economies (Driessen and Laeven, 2005). Allowing inward

investment can help attract additional resources and improve resource allocation. Cross-country

comparisons have shown that countries experience higher capital inflows, lower cost of capital

for enterprises raising funds through stock exchanges, higher investment growth, improved

capital allocation and ultimately higher GDP per capita growth rates after opening their

economies to equity inflows (Bekaert and Harvey, 2003). While countries have experienced

more volatile asset price movements in the years following liberalization (Kaminsky and

Schmukler, 2003), concerns that higher capital inflows after financial liberalization lead to

higher volatility in the form of investment boom-and-bust cycles have not been confirmed by the

11See Beck and Fuchs for a discussion in the context of Kenya (2004).

                                                        25

data (Bekaert and Harvey, 2003). While participation of foreign investors can increase the

vulnerability of domestic markets to contagion from shocks in other countries as foreign

investors re-organize their portfolios, evidence has shown that foreign investors are less likely to

withdraw their money first in times of crisis and their trading activity has no destabilizing effect

on their host countries' capital markets.

        Stock market reforms and capital account opening can have ambiguous effects on

domestic stock markets. Allowing domestic firms to raise resources abroad, through ADRs or

cross-listing on international stock exchanges allows these firms to raise additional resources.

Recent research, however, has also shown a reduction in trading activity of these firms on

domestic stock exchanges and a negative spill-over effect on the liquidity of other firms that do

not go abroad (Levine and Schmukler, 2005). Similarly, international comparisons of the effect

of capital market related reforms have shown a negative impact on trading on domestic markets

as these reforms make domestic firms more attractive to international investors and thus allow

them access to international markets (De la Torre, Gozzi Valdes and Schmukler, 2005). While

this seems like a disappointing consequence of financial liberalization, policy makers have to

remember that it is the access to financial services that matters not who provides the service or

where it is provided.

        Even more than equity flows, debt flows, especially short-term debt flows, can have an

immediate effect on interest and exchange rates of emerging and industrial economies. While a

liberalized financial system can function without a completely open capital account and thus

liberalized cross-border debt flows, opening the capital account makes controls on domestic

interest rates and credit flows difficult if not impossible to sustain and counterproductive and

damaging, as large depositors and borrowers have the possibilities to circumvent them by

investing and borrowing abroad. As capital account liberalization has exposed economies to

substantial volatility in capital flows and macroeconomic prices, a consensus has developed to

                                                   26

sequence capital account liberalization, for example by opening first for longer-term investment

before opening to short-term flows. Similarly, taxes on inflows can help reduce volatility, as the

example of Chile has shown.12 Recent research has also shown that capital inflows through

foreign bank local claims are less volatile than if they are in the form of cross-border claims

(Garcia Herrero and Martinez Peria, 2005).

        Exchange rate risk has become of increasing importance for financial intermediation as

many emerging countries have experienced increasing degrees of dollarization of their financial

systems, i.e. both savings and lending in foreign rather than the local currency. Capital account

liberalization has complicated this problem further as capital flow volatility and the

accompanying exchange rate volatility increases risk for financial intermediaries, be it price or

default risk, while at the same time complicating the task in macroeconomic management for

policy makers. It is important to understand, however, that dollarization is not a problem per se,

but rather the endogenous response to underlying weaknesses in the economy, notably weak

domestic currencies and volatile real exchange rates (de la Torre and Schmukler, 2005; de

Nicoló, Honohan and Ize, 2003). Similarly to the focus on short-term contracts and contracting

under foreign jurisdictions, contracting in foreign currency is a risk-coping mechanism; however,

an instrument that brings new risks with it. While financial contracts in foreign currency reduce

price risk, they increase price-induced default risk, especially the risk of producers of non-

tradable goods to not be able to repay dollar loans, as experienced in recent crises. Policy

makers thus face a steep trade-off between restricting the use of foreign currency and thus

eliminating this risk-coping instrument with the results of a depressed domestic financial system

and a move to off-shore banking, or allowing financial contracting with the volatility and the

risks for financial intermediation and monetary management it brings with it. In case of allowing



12However, see critical view by Forbes (2002) who points to lower access to external financing by smaller firms in
Chile due to restricted capital inflows.

                                                      27

dollarization of financial systems, policy makers face the tension between allowing changes in

nominal exchange rates to manage the economy appropriately and the costs of widespread

default of borrowers in case of abrupt changes in nominal exchange rates. While the discussion

is still on-going, financial economists have pointed to a three-pronged approach that accepts the

use of financial contracting in foreign currency while managing its risks. Specifically, this

approach focuses on exchange rate flexibility with inflation targeting, the adjustment of

prudential regulation so that banks internalize the additional risks foreign currency loans carry

and the development of alternative methods of indexing. Crucial, however, seems to be to

prevent the impression of implicit insurance for financial institutions; otherwise, financial

institutions would rely on the government to bail them out in the case that exchange rate changes

cause financial distress. This could thus result in fear of floating on the side of authorities.




6. Conclusions

         Building the foundations for a stable and effective financial system implies short-term

policy measures, medium-term reform processes and long-term institution building. Theoretical

and empirical research has pointed to the importance of macroeconomic stability and of an

effective and reliable contractual and informational framework as critical fundamentals for

financial intermediation. Experience with financial sector policies in developed and emerging

markets also offer valuable lessons on the role of government in the financial systems.

Bureaucrats as providers of financial services and as operators of financial systems have failed

almost everywhere. However, this experience does not imply a laissez-faire approach; rather it

implies a critical and active role for government in enabling and creating markets, by ensuring

competitive and contestable banking and capital markets and providing an incentive-compatible

financial safety net. Defining a proper role for government is even more important as more and



                                                  28

more countries embrace open capital accounts, which increases pressures to remove domestic

policy distortions and liberalize markets.

         While empirical research has provided substantial evidence on what policies have worked

and which have not, much less evidence is available on the proper sequencing of reforms. While

no model fits all sizes and country experiences, some lessons for policy makers can be drawn.

First, markets should be liberalized to the extent that there are capacities to harness market

forces. The regulatory and supervisory capacities as well as the possibilities for markets to

exercise discipline should keep up with the possibilities of financial institutions to take risk.

Second, authorities should try to stay incentive compatible throughout the reform process. Most

importantly, unlimited explicit or implicit insurance should be avoided for depositors, creditors

and especially owners of financial institutions. Third, the authorities should stay transparent and

accountable throughout the whole process. This is especially important in politically sensitive

and economically significant transactions such as privatization and licensing processes. Finally,

authorities should manage expectations on the risks and rewards of financial reforms. The

policy reforms discussed in this paper are necessary, not sufficient, conditions for a sound and

effective financial system; only their effective interaction can create the basis for a growth-

enhancing financial sector.

         The empirical research and policy recommendations discussed in this paper present the

best judgment based on current knowledge. As new, more micro-based, data become available

and researchers are able to empirically assess the effect of specific policy reforms, economists

will not only be able to endorse or reject specific policy recommendations, but will also be able

to better quantify the effect of specific reforms and policy changes.13 Technological change,

especially in information technology, and further international integration promise to transform



13See Haselmann, Pistor and Vig (2006) as example for Eastern Europe, where they find that reforms of creditor
rights outside bankruptcy have a significant effect on private sector lending, while bankruptcy reform does not.

                                                          29

the financial system substantially over the coming decades, providing new opportunities for

providers and users of financial services and new challenges for researchers and policy makers.




                                                30

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                                              35

Figure 1: GDP per Capita Growth and Private Credit

This graph illustrates a regression of real GDP per capita growth on log of initial GDP per capita,
government consumption as share of GDP, trade as share of GDP, black market premium,
average years of schooling, inflation and Private Credit. Specifically, this figure represents the
two-dimensional representation of the regression plane in GDP per capita growth ­ Private
Credit space. To obtain this figure, we regress GDP per capita growth on all explanatory
variables except Private Credit, collect the residuals, and call them (GDP per Capita Growth | X).
Next, we regress Private Credit against all other explanatory variables, collect the residuals, and
call them e(Private Credit | X ). Then, we plot e(GDP per Capita Growth | X) against e(Private
Credit | X). All data for the regressions are averaged over the period 1980-2003. Private Credit
is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial sector to GDP.


                             6



     )X|                      4

        thworG                 2
              taipaCrep         0

                       P
                        GD(E     -2



                                   -4

                                      -3    -2       -1              0       1    2
                                                  E( Private Credit | X )




                                                               36

Figure 2: Poverty Alleviation and Private Credit

This graph illustrates a regression of Growth of Headcount against log of initial Headcount, GDP
per capita Growth and Private Credit. Specifically, this figure represents the two-dimensional
representation of the regression plane in Growth of Headcount ­ Private Credit space. To obtain
this figure, we regress Growth of Headcount on log of initial Headcount and GDP per capita
Growth, collect the residuals, and call them (Growth of Headcount | X). Next, we regress Private
Credit against log of initial Headcount and GDP per capita Growth, collect the residuals, and call
them e(Private Credit | X ). Then, we plot e(Growth of Headcount | X) against e(Private Credit | X).
Source: Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2004).




                                                 37

Figure 3: Private Credit and Inflation

Private Credit/GDP is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial sector to
GDP. Inflation is the log of (1 + average annual CPI inflation). Data averaged for 1980-2003.



                      50
                        1.




    PDG/tdie              00
                            1.



            Cr
              e
               atvirP         50
                                0.




                                  00
                                    0.


                                       0    .1        .2       .3              .4
                                                  Inflation




                                                         38

Figure 4: Private Credit and Creditor Rights

Private Credit/GDP is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial sector to
GDP. Data averaged for 1980-2003. The Creditor Rights Index reflects the legal rights of
borrowers and lenders and measures the degree to which collateral and bankruptcy laws facilitate
lending; the index ranges from 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating that collateral and
bankruptcy laws are better designed to expand access to credit (World Bank, 2005).



                      00
                        2.




                          50
                            1.
    PDG/tdie                  00
            Cr                  1.
              e
               atvirP
                                  50
                                    0.




                                      00
                                        0.
                                           0    2      4              6       8    10
                                                     Creditor Rights Index




                                                                 39

Figure 5: Private Credit and Contract Enforcement

Private Credit/GDP is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial sector to
GDP. Data averaged for 1980-2003. Days to Enforce a Contract is an indicators that measure the
efficiency of the judicial (or administrative) system in the collection of overdue debt; it is the
time required for dispute resolution, recorded in calendar days, counted from the moment the
plaintiff files the lawsuit in court until settlement or payment (World Bank, 2005).



                       00
                         2.



                           50
                             1.
     PDG/tdie                  00
                                 1.
             Cr
               e
                atvirP             50
                                     0.



                                       00
                                         0.


                                            0    500                  1000     1500
                                                 Days to Enforce a Contract




                                                               40

Figure 6: Stock Market Capitalization and Minority Shareholder Rights

Stock Market Capitalization / GDP is the ratio of the value of total shares outstanding to GDP.
Data averaged for 1980-2003. Investor Protection Index measures the strength of minority
shareholder protections against directors' misuse of corporate assets for personal gain; the index
ranges from 0 to 10, with higher values indicating better investor protection (World Bank, 2005).



                                  2



    PDG/                           5
                                    1.
        noit
            zailatipaCt               1


                       rke
                          Ma           .5
                            cko
                               St


                                         0

                                           0    2       4              6        8    10
                                                    Investor Protection Index




                                                                  41

Figure 7: Private Credit and Creditor Information Sharing

Private Credit/GDP is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial sector to
GDP. Data averaged for 1980-2003. Credit Information Index measures rules affecting the
scope, accessibility and quality of credit information available through either public or private
bureaus; the index ranges from 0 to 6, with higher values indicating that more credit information
is available from either a public registry or a private bureau to facilitate lending decisions (World
Bank, 2005).


                       00
                         2.




                           50
                             1.
     PDG/tdie                  00
             Cr                  1.
               e
                atvirP
                                   50
                                     0.




                                       00
                                         0.
                                            0    2                      4          6
                                                 Credit Information Index




                                                              42

Figure 8: Private Credit and Share of Government-Owned Banks

Private Credit/GDP is the claims of financial institutions on the private non-financial
sector to GDP. Data averaged for 1980-2003. Share of Government-Owned Banks is the
fraction of the banking system's assets in banks that are 50% or more government owned
(Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2006). Data are for 1997.


                       00
                         2.




                           50
                             1.
     PDG/tdie                  00
             Cr                  1.
               e
                atvirP
                                   50
                                     0.




                                       00
                                         0.
                                           0.00    0.20      0.40         0.60       0.80    1.00
                                                         Share of Govt. Owned Banks




                                                                    43