THEWORLD BANK 41790 World Bank Assistance to Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa An IEG Review RECENT IEG PUBLICATIONS 2006 Annual Report on Operations Evaluation Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2006: Getting Results Addressing the Challenges of Globalization: An Independent Evaluation of the World Bank's Approach to Global Programs Assessing World Bank Support for Trade, 1987­2004: An IEG Evaluation Books, Buildings, and Learning Outcomes: An Impact Evaluation of World Bank Support to Basic Education in Ghana Brazil: Forging a Strategic Partnership for Results--An OED Evaluation of World Bank Assistance Bridging Troubled Waters: Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy Capacity Building in Africa: An OED Evaluation of World Bank Support China: An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance The CIGAR at 31: An Independent Meta-Evaluation of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Committing to Results: Improving the Effectiveness of HIV/AIDS Assistance--An OED Evaluation of the World Bank's Assistance for HIV/AIDS Control Country Assistance Evaluation Retrospective: OED Self-Evaluation Debt Relief for the Poorest: An Evaluation Update of the HIPC Initiative A Decade of Action in Transport: An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance to the Transport Sector, 1995­2005 The Development Potential of Regional Programs: An Evaluation of World Bank Support of Multicountry Operations Development Results in Middle-Income Countries: An Evaluation of the World Bank's Support Economies in Transition: An OED Evaluation of World Bank Assistance Engaging with Fragile States: An IEG Review of World Bank Support to Low-Income Countries Under Stress The Effectiveness of World Bank Support for Community-Based and ­Driven Development: An OED Evaluation Evaluating a Decade of World Bank Gender Policy: 1990­99 Evaluation of World Bank Assistance to Pacific Member Countries, 1992­2002 Extractive Industries and Sustainable Development: An Evaluation of World Bank Group Experience Financial Sector Assessment Program: IEG Review of the Joint World Bank and IMF Initiative From Schooling Access to Learning Outcomes: An Unfinished Agenda--An Evaluation of World Bank Support to Primary Education Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development: An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disasters How to Build M&E Systems to Support Better Government IEG Review of World Bank Assistance for Financial Sector Reform Improving Investment Climates: An Evaluation of World Bank Group Assistance Improving the Lives of the Poor Through Investment in Cities Improving the World Bank's Development Assistance: What Does Evaluation Show? 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For our multilingual selection, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/ieg W O R L D B A N K I N D E P E N D E N T E V A L U A T I O N G R O U P World Bank Assistance to Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa An IEG Review 2007 The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ieg Washington, D.C. ©2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 5 10 09 08 07 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: A woman prepares the ground for planting, Mozambique. Photo by Eric Miller, courtesy of the World Bank. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-7350-7 e-ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-7351-4 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7350-7 World Bank InfoShop Independent Evaluation Group E-mail: pic@worldbank.org Knowledge Programs and Evaluation Capacity Telephone: 202-458-5454 Development (IEGKE) Facsimile: 202-522-1500 E-mail: eline@worldbank.org Telephone: 202-458-4497 Facsimile: 202-522-3125 Printed on Recycled Paper Contents vii Abbreviations ix Acknowledgments xi Foreword xiii Avant propos xv Prefácio xvii Preface xix Préface xxi Nota Preliminar xxiii Executive Summary xxix Synthèse xxxvii Resumo Executivo xlv Management Response li Réponse de la direction lvii A Resposta da Administração lxiii Chairperson's Summary: Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) lxvii Rapport de synthèse du Président : Comité pour l'efficacité du développement (CODE) lxxiii Resumo do Presidente:Comissão sobre a Eficácia do Desenvolvimento (COED) lxxix Evaluation Snapshot in Selected Languages 1 1 Introduction 3 The Role of Agriculture in Africa 4 Study Purpose 5 Study Scope 5 Methodology i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A 7 2 African Agriculture and the Bank 9 The Agriculture Sector in Africa 11 The Aid Architecture for Agriculture in Africa 12 The World Bank's Strategic Approach 14 Main Constraints to Africa's Agricultural Development 21 3 Bank Support for Agriculture and Portfolio Performance 23 Analytical Work 25 Policy Advice 25 Lending 28 Overall Performance of Agriculture Projects 31 4 Key Factors of Performance 33 Internal (Bank) Factors 39 Country Factors 45 5 The Bank's Contribution--A Thematic Assessment 47 Agro-Ecological Diversity 48 Fluctuating Rainfall and Droughts 51 Soil Fertility 56 Credit and Rural Finance 57 Transport Infrastructure 59 Extension 62 Land Reform 63 Price and Marketing Reform 69 6 Findings and Recommendations 71 Key Findings 72 Recommendations 75 Appendixes 77 A: Methodology 81 B: Categorization of Countries by Factor Endowments and Agriculture's Share of GDP 85 C: Agro-Ecological Diversity, Production Systems, and Growth Rates of Food and Cash Crops 89 D: The Bank Portfolio and Its Performance 97 E: Lending to Agriculture from Bilateral and Multilateral Donors 99 F: Bank Staff Survey Results 107 G: Sector Staffing Analysis 109 H: Selected Extension Approaches 111 I: Cotton Sector Reforms: An Unfinished Story 113 J: Marketing Reform 121 K: Irrigation Data 123 L: Cassava Transformation in Nigeria 125 M: Preparation Costs and Risk Ratings for Agriculture Projects 127 Endnotes 135 References Boxes 16 2.1 Constraints to Development of Access to Credit and Rural Finance in Africa i v C O N T E N T S 27 3.1 Bank's Coding System and Inadequate Reflection of Important Agricultural Activities 41 4.1 Weak Political Commitment Has Been a Factor in Performance 43 4.2 The History and Challenges of National Research Capacity in Africa 50 5.1 Bank Support for Fadama Project I in Nigeria: Achievements Constrained by Lack of a Multifaceted Approach 52 5.2 Cassava: A Missed Opportunity for the Bank to Contribute to Food Security 61 5.3 New Uganda Extension System Improves Efficiency But Faces Challenges 63 5.4 Zimbabwe Pilot for Land Reform Fails to Take Off 64 5.5 Agricultural Market Reform in Africa: The Expectations 66 5.6 Negative Impacts of Policy Sequencing on Traditional Export Crop Sectors in Cameroon Figures 10 2.1 Changes in Cereal Production Produced by Changes in Area and Yield, 1961­2001 26 3.1 Sectoral Distribution of Investment Lending in Africa, Fiscal 1991­2006 29 3.2 Outcome and Sustainability Ratings 29 3.3 Performance of Bank Projects with Greater than 50 Percent Agricultural Component 51 5.1 Production of Maize and Cassava in Six Drought-Affected Countries of Southern Africa v Harvesting rice in Senegal. Photo by Ray Witlin, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Abbreviations AAA Analytical and advisory activities AfDB African Development Bank ARD Agriculture and Rural Development (Department, World Bank) CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CAE Country Assistance Evaluation CAS Country Assistance Strategy CDD Community-driven development CGAP Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment DAC Development Assistance Committee DPL Development policy lending FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FARA Forum for African Agricultural Research FDI Foreign direct investment GCDS Global Cassava Development Strategy GDP Gross domestic product ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Association IEG Independent Evaluation Group IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFDC International Fertilizer Development Center IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture ISNAR International Service for National Agricultural Research MDG Millennium Development Goal M&E Monitoring and evaluation NAADS National Agricultural Advisory Services NARS National Agriculture Research Systems NCPB National Cereals and Produce Board NEPAD New Partnership for Africa's Development NGO Nongovernmental organization O&M Operations and maintenance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OED Operations Evaluation Department (now IEG) ONCPB Office National de Commercialisation des Produits de Base OPCS Operations Policy and Country Services (World Bank) PAD Project Appraisal Document PER Public Expenditure Review PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A QAG Quality Assurance Group R&D Research and development SOTOCO Société Togolaise du Coton T&V Training and visit UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development WDR World Development Report v i i i Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team consisting of Colleagues inside the Bank provided comments Nalini Kumar (task manager), April Connelly, and and input at various stages. They include: Jonathan Ridley Nelson under the guidance of Alain Barbu Agwe, IIhem Baghdadli, Mary A. Barton-Dock, (manager, Independent Evaluation Group Sector, Karen McConnell Brooks, Frank Fulgence K. Thematic, and Global Evaluation [IEGSG]). Kavita Byamugisha, Derek R. Byerlee, Mark E. Cackler, Mathur and Tara Lonnberg provided research Luc Christiaensen, Sanjiva Cooke, Christine E. support. In addition to the core team, valu- Cornelius, IJsbrand Harko de Jong, Christopher able contributions were received from Shawki Delgado,ArielDinar,OlivierDurand,BleoueNicaise Barghouti and Jumana Farah. Other IEG colleagues Ehoue, Madhur Gautam, Steven Jaffee, Willem whose work provided input included Petros Aklilu, Janssen, Renate Kloeppinger-Todd, Patrick Labaste, Chris Gerrard, Kieth Oblitas, and Keith Pitman. Stephen Mink, Renato Nardello, David Nielson, William Hurlbut edited the initial report and Nwanze Okidegbe, Andrea Pape-Christiansen, Jeeva Caroline McEuen edited the manuscript for A. Perumalpillai-Essex, Christophe Ravry, Samjhana publication, Marie Charles provided administrative Thapa, Robert Townsend, John M. Underwood, and support. Martien Van Nieuwkoop. Several retired Bank staff provided valuable input based on their extensive The report benefited tremendously from the experience, including Jock Anderson, Stephen Carr, guidance provided by Ajay Chhibber, Sharoukh Cornelis de Haan, Laurie Effron, Sushma Ganguly, Fardoust, Patrick Grasso, and Vinod Thomas. Jacob Kampen, Satish Kumar, Uma Lele, and Jeffrey Valuable comments were also received from Denis Lewis. Carpio, Ken Chomitz, Victoria Elliott, Ali Khadr, James Sackey, and Klaus Tilmes of IEG. Gershon Feder peer reviewed the report. Director-General, Evaluation: Vinod Thomas Director, Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank: Ajay Chhibber Manager, IEGSG: Alain Barbu Task Manager: Nalini Kumar i x Hauling bananas by bicycle, Tanzania. Photo by Scott Wallace, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Foreword Sub-Saharan Africa is a highly complex and sector that requires coordinated intervention diverse Region that is a critical priority for the across a range of activities. The lending support development community, as it has some of the from the Bank has been "sprinkled" across world's poorest countries and remains behind various agricultural activities such as research, on most of the Millennium Development Goals extension, credit, seeds, and policy reforms in (MDGs). A major drag on Africa's development is rural space, but with little recognition of the the underperformance of the critical agriculture potential synergy among them to effectively sector, which accounts for a large share of GDP contribute to agricultural development. As a and employment in the Region. This study result, though there have been areas of compar- assesses the development effectiveness of World atively greater success--research, for example-- Bank assistance in addressing constraints to results have been limited because of weak agricultural development in Africa over the linkage with extension and limited availability of period of fiscal years 1991­2006. such complementary and critical inputs as fertil- izers and water. Poor governance and conflict in The central finding of the study is that the several countries further complicate matters. agriculture sector has been neglected both by governments and the donor community, includ- In order to effectively support the implementation ing the World Bank. The Bank's strategy for of the Africa Action Plan and its appropriate focus agriculture has been increasingly subsumed on agricultural development as a key priority, the within a broader rural focus, in which its study has three recommendations for the Bank. importance has suffered. Both arising from and First, it should focus attention on achieving contributing to this, technical skills to support improvements in agricultural productivity. Second, agricultural development adequately have it should increase the quantity and quality of declined over time. The Bank's limited--and, analytical work and ensure that policy advice and until recently, declining--support for addressing lending are grounded in its findings, and rebuild its the constraints on agriculture has not been technical skills. Third, it should establish clear strategically used to meet the diverse needs of a benchmarks for measuring progress. Vinod Thomas Director-General, Evaluation x i Avant propos L'Afrique subsaharienne est une région très gique pour satisfaire aux besoins variés d'un complexe et d'une grande diversité qui, parce secteur qui appelle des interventions coordon- qu'elle compte quelques-uns des pays les plus nées dans divers domaines. Les prêts consentis pauvres au monde et accuse un retard dans la par la Banque ont été « dispersés » entre réalisation de la plupart des objectifs de dévelop- différentes activités agricoles, telles que la pement pour le Millénaire (ODM), est une recherche, la vulgarisation, le crédit, les priorité essentielle pour la communauté du semences et les réformes de l'espace rural, mais développement. Les mauvais résultats du secteur sans guère tirer parti de leurs synergies névralgique de l'agriculture, qui est à l'origine éventuelles pour favoriser valablement le d'une large part du PIB et de l'emploi dans la développement agricole. En conséquence, région, constituent un frein majeur au dévelop- malgré la réussite comparative affichée dans pement du continent. La présente étude évalue certains domaines, comme la recherche, les l'efficacité de l'aide apportée par la Banque résultats ont été limités en raison des liens ténus mondiale pour remédier aux obstacles au avec la vulgarisation et de la disponibilité insuffi- développement agricole en Afrique pendant la sante d'intrants complémentaires et critiques période comprise entre les exercices 91 et 06. tels que les engrais et l'eau. La mauvaise gouver- nance et les conflits qui sévissent dans plusieurs L'étude aboutit à la conclusion fondamentale que pays ne font que compliquer la situation. le secteur agricole a été négligé tant par les autorités nationales que par la communauté des Pour appuyer efficacement l'exécution du Plan bailleurs de fonds, Banque mondiale comprise. d'action pour l'Afrique et de l'objectif prioritaire La stratégie de la Banque pour l'agriculture a qu'il a judicieusement choisi, le développement progressivement été intégrée à un projet rural agricole, l'étude formule trois recommandations de plus grande envergure où elle est passée au à l'intention de la Banque mondiale. Elle doit second plan. Les compétences techniques d'abord axer ses efforts sur l'amélioration de la nécessaires à l'appui du développement agricole productivité agricole. Il lui faut ensuite augmen- se sont en conséquence amenuisées au fil du ter la quantité et la qualité des études temps, phénomène qui a à son tour entretenu analytiques, veiller à ce que ses opérations de cette situation. L'aide modérée _ et, jusque conseil et de prêt soient fondées sur ses observa- récemment, en repli _ apportée par la Banque tions, et restaurer ses compétences techniques. mondiale pour remédier aux problèmes de l'agri- Enfin, elle doit établir des indicateurs précis pour culture n'a pas été utilisée de manière straté- mesurer les progrès. Vinod Thomas Directeur général, Évaluation x i i i Prefácio A África subsariana é uma Região muito requer uma intervenção coordenada numa complexa e diversa que constitui uma prioridade grande variedade de actividades. O apoio dos fundamental para a comunidade que se dedica empréstimos do Banco tem sido "espalhado" por ao desenvolvimento porque contém alguns dos várias actividades agrícolas, tais como, investi- países mais pobres do mundo e continua gação, extensão, crédito, sementes e reformas atrasada no que respeita a maioria dos Objecti- de política no espaço rural, mas a sinergia vos de Desenvolvimento para o Milénio (ODM). potencial entre eles para contribuir efectiva- Um dos factores que atrasam o desenvolvimento mente para o desenvolvimento da agricultura da África é o fraco desempenho do importante pouco foi reconhecida. Consequentemente, sector da agricultura, o qual representa uma embora em certas áreas tenha havido comparati- grande parte do PIB e do emprego na Região. O vamente mais êxitos, como por exemplo na presente estudo avalia a eficácia para o desenvol- investigação, os resultados foram limitados vimento da assistência prestada pelo Banco devido à debilidade das ligações com a extensão Mundial ao abordar os constrangimentos ao e à disponibilidade limitada de insumos comple- desenvolvimento da agricultura na África durante mentares e fundamentais, como os fertilizantes e o período compreendido entre os anos fiscais de a água. A governação débil e os conflitos em 1991 e 2006. vários países complicaram ainda mais a questão. A conclusão central do estudo é que o sector da Para apoiar efectivamente a execução do Plano agricultura tem sido negligenciado tanto pelos de Acção para a África e a sua focalização governos como pela comunidade de doadores, apropriada no desenvolvimento da agricultura incluindo o Banco Mundial. A estratégia do como sendo uma prioridade principal, o estudo Banco para a agricultura tem estado cada vez formula três recomendações ao Banco. Em mais subordinada ao âmbito de uma focalização primeiro lugar, o Banco deveria concentrar a sua rural mais ampla, tendo perdido alguma da sua atenção em obter melhoramentos na produtivi- importância. Como resultado disso e contri- dade agrícola Em segundo lugar, o Banco deveria buindo para isso, as competências técnicas para aumentar a quantidade e a qualidade dos seus apoiar adequadamente o desenvolvimento da trabalhos analíticos e assegurar que a assessoria agricultura diminuíram com o tempo. O apoio de política e os empréstimos concedidos se limitado, e até gora decrescente, do Banco para baseiam nas suas conclusões, e reconstruir as abordar os constrangimentos à agricultura não suas competências técnicas. Em terceiro lugar, tem sido utilizado estrategicamente para suprir ele deveria estabelecer referências claras para as necessidades diversas de um sector que medir os progressos alcançados. Vinod Thomas Director-Geral, Avaliação x v Demonstration farm in Nigeria. Photo by Yosef Hadar, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Preface This IEG review of World Bank assistance to tional aid agendas and policy directions. The agriculture in Africa has a twofold purpose. First, findings of the review also informed the Board of it is a pilot for the proposed IEG study on Bank- Directors' discussion of the World Development wide assistance in agriculture scheduled for fiscal Report 2008: Agriculture and Development. 2009. Second, the review provides timely insight into specific issues relevant to the Bank's During the past two decades, the number of renewed focus on agriculture in Africa, especially poor in Africa has doubled, from 150 million to as expressed in the Africa Action Plan. In addition, 300 million. Africa remains behind on most of the the African Union has launched a vision and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and is strategic framework for Africa's renewal--the unlikely to reach them by 2015. About 70 percent New Partnership for Africa's Development of the target population for the MDGs is in the (NEPAD). The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture rural areas of Africa, and for most of those rural Development Programme is at the heart of efforts poor, agriculture is critical to successful attain- by African governments under the NEPAD initia- ment of the MDGs. Thus, an assessment of the tive to accelerate growth and eliminate poverty Bank's contribution to agricultural development and hunger. Lessons of experience from the Bank in the Region is critical to understanding the will contribute to discussion surrounding these history of development of the sector and for initiatives and will likely inform future interna- drawing lessons for the future. x v i i Préface L'examen par l'IEG de l'assistance apportée par la inspirer les programmes d'aide internationaux et Banque mondiale à l'agriculture en Afrique a une les orientations stratégiques futurs. Les conclu- double finalité. Il s'agit en premier lieu d'une sions de l'examen ont également guidé la discus- étude pilote préalable à l'analyse de l'aide de la sion du Conseil des Administrateurs portant sur Banque mondiale à l'agriculture en général, que le Rapport sur le développement dans le monde l'IEG prévoit d'effectuer durant l'exercice 09. Il 2008 : L'agriculture au service du développement. apporte ensuite des informations actualisées sur des questions particulières qui présentent un Au cours des deux dernières décennies, le intérêt pour la Banque dans le cadre du nombre de pauvres a doublé en Afrique, passant recentrage de ses activités sur l'agriculture en de 150 millions à 300 millions. L'Afrique accuse Afrique, tel qu'exprimé dans le Plan d'action pour un retard dans la réalisation de la plupart l'Afrique notamment. Par ailleurs, l'Union des objectifs de développement pour le africaine a formulé un projet et un cadre straté- Millénaire (ODM) et a peu de chance de les gique pour le renouveau de l'Afrique ­ le atteindre d'ici à 2015. Quelque 70 % de la popula- Nouveau partenariat pour le développement de tion ciblée par les ODM vit en milieu rural et, pour l'Afrique (NEPAD). Le Programme détaillé pour le la plupart des habitants pauvres des zones développement de l'agriculture africaine est au rurales, l'agriculture est un moyen capital centre des efforts déployés par les gouverne- d'atteindre des ODM. Il est donc indispensable ments africains dans le cadre du NEPAD en vue de procéder à une évaluation du concours de la d'accélérer la croissance et d'éliminer la pauvreté Banque mondiale au développement agricole de et la faim. Les enseignements dégagés de l'expé- la région, pour comprendre l'histoire du dévelop- rience de la Banque mondiale alimenteront le pement de ce secteur et en dégager des enseigne- débat entourant ces projets et seront de nature à ments pour l'avenir. x i x Nota Preliminar A presente análise do IEG da assistência do Banco agendas das ajudas internacionais e a direcção das Mundial à agricultura na África tem um duplo medidas de política. As conclusões da análise propósito. Primeiro, é uma análise piloto para o também informaram as deliberações do Conselho estudo proposto pelo IEG sobre a assistência de Administração relativas ao Relatório sobre o prestada pela totalidade do Banco à agricultura, Desenvolvimento Mundial de 2008: A Agricultura programado para o ano fiscal de 2009. Segundo, a e o Desenvolvimento. análise proporciona uma visão em tempo oportuno de questões específicas que são Durante as últimas duas décadas, o número de pertinentes à focalização renovada do Banco da pobres na África duplicou, passando de 150 agricultura na África, especialmente como foi milhões para 300 milhões. A África continua a ficar expressa no Plano de Acção para a África. Adicio- para trás no que respeita a maioria dos Objectivos nalmente, a União Africana adoptou uma visão e de Desenvolvimento para o Milénio (ODM) e é estrutura estratégica para a renovação da África -- improvável que os alcance até ao ano de 2015. a Nova Parceria para o Desenvolvimento da África Cerca de 70 por cento da população visada pelos (NEPAD).OProgramaAbrangenteparaoDesenvol- ODM encontram-se nas zonas rurais da África, e vimento da Agricultura na África está no âmago para a maioria destes pobres das zonas rurais a dos esforços realizados pelos governos africanos, agricultura é crucial para conseguir alcançar os no âmbito da iniciativa do NEPAD, para acelerar o ODM. Assim, uma avaliação da contribuição do crescimento e eliminar a pobreza e a fome. Os Banco para o desenvolvimento da agricultura na ensinamentos obtidos com a experiência do Região é fundamental para compreender a Banco vão contribuir para o debate em torno história do desenvolvimento deste sector e para destas iniciativas e provavelmente informarão as obter ensinamentos para o futuro. x x i Dinka herders care for their cattle near Mapourit, Sudan. Photograph by Douglas Engle and reproduced with his permission. Executive Summary S ub-Saharan Africa is a highly complex Region of 47 countries with 7 dis- tinctly different colonial histories. It is also highly diverse, with more than 700 million people and at least 1,000 different ethnic groups. The Re- gion is a critical development priority. It includes some of the world's poor- est countries, and during the past two decades the number of poor in the Region has doubled to 300 million--more than 40 percent of the Region's popula- tion. Africa remains behind on most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and is unlikely to reach them by 2015. A major drag on Africa's development is the agriculture has not been used strategically to underperformance of the agriculture sector. This meet the diverse needs of a sector that requires is a critical sector in the Region, because it coordinated intervention across a range of activi- accounts for a large share of gross domestic ties. The lending support from the Bank has product (GDP) and employment. The weak been "sprinkled" across various agricultural performance of the sector stems from a variety activities such as research, extension, credit, of constraints that are particular to agriculture in seeds, and policy reforms in rural space, but with Africa and make its development a complex little recognition of the potential synergy among challenge. Poor governance and conflict in them to effectively contribute to agricultural several of the countries further complicate development. As a result, though there have matters. IEG has assessed the development been areas of comparatively greater success-- effectiveness of World Bank assistance in research, for example--results have been limited addressing constraints to agricultural develop- because of weak linkage with extension and ment in Africa over the period of fiscal years limited availability of such complementary and 1991­2006 in a pilot for a wider assessment of critical inputs as fertilizers and water. Hence the the Bank's assistance to agriculture worldwide. Bank has had limited success in contributing to the development of African agriculture. The central finding of the study is that the agriculture sector has been neglected by both The Challenges of African Agriculture governments and the donor community, includ- Agricultural output has grown in Africa, but it is ing the World Bank. The Bank's strategy for difficult to calculate a reliable growth rate for the agriculture has been increasingly subsumed Region over the study period because of wide within a broader rural focus, which has dimi- variations across countries and over time. Some nished its importance. Both arising from and countries, such as Gabon, moved from poor contributing to this, the technical skills needed performance in 1990­2000 to better perform- to support agricultural development adequately ance in 2000­04; others, such as Malawi, moved have also declined over time. in the opposite direction. The change has often been dramatic, which makes aggregate growth The Bank's limited--and, until recently, declin- rates misleading. For example, agriculture in ing--support for addressing the constraints on Angola grew at 13.7 percent a year during x x i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A 2000­04, although growth had retreated by 1.4 able rainfall, and frequent droughts. Transport percent yearly during 1990­2000. Only about a infrastructure is poor, access to irrigation is quarter of the countries in the Region, among limited, and under rain-fed conditions, chronic them Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria, and food insecurity is a reality for millions of small Tanzania, show consistent agricultural growth of farmers. To survive in this harsh environment, over 3 percent in the 1990­2004 period. most farmers rely on diversified coping strategies. To ensure at least some produce from their land, Total agricultural output in Africa consists primarily African farmers normally plant several varieties of of food crops. Agricultural export crops account for crops (typically 10 or more) with different matura- less than 10 percent of total production. While tion periods, together with trees. Livestock is also some export crops, including cotton, have con- an important source of security for farmers in tributed to poverty alleviation in countries such as Africa, particularly in lean years. The average Burkina Faso, food crops have performed poorly in smallholder's access to credit is also extremely most countries. Cereal yields in Africa, even in limited. Hardy crops such as millet, sorghum, 2003­05, were less than half those in South Asia cassava, and other root crops are more important and one-third those in Latin America. Africa also than cereals such as rice and wheat, which were lags behind other Regions in the percentage of the mainstay of the Asian Green Revolution. cropland irrigated, fertilizer use, and labor and land productivity per worker. While the great strides in Inthisenvironment,forfarmerstohaveanincentive South Asia's agricultural production from 1961 to to practice intensive agriculture and take risks with 2001 were mainly the result of increased yields, new crop varieties, a number of factors need to gains in food production in Africa were produced come together at the same time, or at least appear primarily through the expansion of cultivated land. in an optimal sequence, including improved seeds, Meanwhile, crop yields stagnated. water, credit, and access to markets; good extension advice; and adequate returns through undistorted Beginning in 1973, Africa became a net food pricesforinputsandoutputs.Astrategyfordevelop- importer. Since that time, food production has ment of agriculture in Africa must consider each of not kept pace with the rapidly growing popula- thesefactorsinthecontextofAfrica'suniquecharac- tion, and food imports have grown rapidly. teristics and specific local conditions. Meanwhile, Africa's exports, which are primarily agriculture-based, declined; for several commodi- Past Approaches to African Agriculture ties, including coffee, the Region's share of the Until very recently, agricultural development in world market evaporated. Agricultural subsidies Africa was neglected by both governments and in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and donors. During the 1960s, immediately following Development (OECD) countries have played a independence, governments in several African major role in keeping world prices low for several countries considered agriculture primarily a of these crops. This, among other factors, has source of resources for industrialization. Then, in impacted the adequacy of returns to farmers. the 1970s, the World Bank led the shift toward a broader development model in Africa that was Agriculture in Africa is primarily a family activity, consistent with a more general shift in the and the majority of farmers are smallholders who understanding of development. This committed own between 0.5 and 2.0 hectares of land, as the institution to integrated rural development to determined by socio-cultural factors. Women directly attack Africa's rural poverty and under- provide about half of the labor force and produce development. In the mid-1980s, when African most of the food crops consumed by the family. countries faced severe fiscal crises, donors priori- tized improvements in the efficiency of resource Agricultural land in Africa falls into several agro- allocation and pressed agriculture marketing ecological zones that run across countries. It is reforms. But structural reforms also fell short of largely characterized by poor soils, highly vari- producing the desired growth effects. x x i v E X E C UT I V E S U M M A RY The Role of Aid adjustment lending) in agriculture, constituting Bilateral and multilateral donor aid for develop- 8 percent of total Bank investment lending to the ment of African agriculture declined from $1,921 Region. A large part of this lending has been in million in 1981 to $997 million in 2001 (in 2001 the form of agriculture components in rural dollars). Lending from both sources has since projects. In addition, there have been 77 rebounded with the increasing focus on African Development Policy Loans with agriculture development. OECD data show that although components, and in 18 of these, agriculture was bilateral donors as a group have played a compar- a significant dimension. atively larger role, the World Bank was the single largest donor to African agriculture between This limited investment lending has performed 1990 and 2005. The largest bilateral donors were below par. IEG data show that the percentage of the United States and Japan. satisfactory outcome ratings for largely agricul- tural investment projects during 1991­2006 is Foreign private sector flows into Africa are lower than that for non-agriculture investments modest in comparison with bilateral and multilat- in the Region (60 against 65 percent satisfactory). eral aid (Hazell and von Braun 2006). Private It is also lower than the percentage for similar commercial investment in African agriculture has investment projects in other Bank Regions (73 been largely limited to export crops and higher- percent satisfactory). Sustainability ratings are potential zones. A number of international seed also below average. Although further analysis is companies have invested in maize seed multipli- needed, the study found that largely agricultural cation, and in September 2006 the Rockefeller projects in countries with less favorable agricul- and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations together tural conditions have done better than similar launched a new partnership to help Africa projects in countries with more favorable develop its agriculture. conditions. Agriculture's Potential and the The Bank's activities in support of agricultural Bank's Strategy development in Africa have comprised lending, For Africa to meet the MDGs, it will be necessary analytical work, and policy advice. Until very to realize the potential of the agriculture sector, recently the analytical work--necessary for the to provide the support needed for it to diagnosis of issues and actions and to help shape contribute to growth and poverty reduction. the policy advice and lending--has been limited, Research by Dorosh and Haggblade (2003) and scattered, of variable quality, and not easily IFPRI (2006a) found that investments in agricul- available. In addition, IEG found that there are ture generally favor Africa's poor more than no specific procedures in place to ensure that similar investments in manufacturing. the findings of analytical work are systematically reflected in lending and policy dialogue. The World Bank has not had a separate strategy for agriculture in Africa except as part of its wider IEG found that the lending support provided by rural development strategies, and over time the the Bank has not reflected the interconnected agriculture strategy was subsumed in a broader nature of agriculture activities. Rather, the rural focus. More recently, however, the Africa lending has been "sprinkled" across an array of Action Plan has recognized the agriculture sector activities in rural space, including research, as a potential driver of growth. extension, marketing reform, drought relief, seed development, and transport, but with little The Bank's Overall Assistance and recognition of the relationships among them and Its Assessment the need for all of these areas to be developed at Over fiscal years 1991­2006, the Bank provided the same time, or at least in an optimal sequence, the countries of the Africa Region with $2.8 to effectively contribute to agricultural develop- billion in investment lending (as distinct from ment. While the Bank's broader rural focus from x x v WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A the mid-1980s was justified, an unintended result per capita food availability. In this connection, was that it led to less focused attention on the while the Bank has contributed to development need for various activities that are critical for of improved millet and cassava varieties through agricultural development in rural space to come support to research, it has missed the opportu- together at the same time or to take place in nity to recognize the important role that cassava some optimal sequence. can play in promoting food security in most countries. This review found that none of the top 10 borrowers, among them Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Poor soil fertility. The Bank has been party to Tanzania, and Uganda, had received consistent several international and regional initiatives on and simultaneous support across all critical this issue, including the Terr Africa Regional subsectors. That is not to suggest that the Bank Initiative, launched in 2005. This multidimen- should do this alone--it might well be done sional partnership is expected to promote a better in partnership--but the Bank could collective approach to sustainable land manage- reasonably be expected to take the lead in foster- ment in the Region. But Bank lending appears to ing such a multifaceted approach, based on its have addressed soil fertility more as an environ- comparative advantage as a multisector lending mental than as an agricultural productivity issue. institution. Access to water. Though the Bank has identified Thematic Performance the need for investment in irrigation, it has done An assessment of the achievements and very limited lending for that purpose. The Bank shortcomings in the Bank's support by main interventions that support water management in theme reveals a mixed record: rain-fed areas have achieved physical targets, but because of poor monitoring and evaluation Agro-ecological diversity. Bank support has (M&E), it is difficult to tell what has worked and helped build the capacity of national research what has not. systems and develop zonal stations to give an agro-ecological focus to research. However, Improved seeds. The Bank has contributed to the there is little indication that Bank projects other Consultative Group on International Agricultural than research interventions have systematically Research (CGIAR), which has made significant adapted activities to diverse country agro-ecolog- contributions in this area, and Bank projects ical conditions. The ability to respond to local have also provided opportunity for testing and conditions has been the primary appeal of scaling up technologies, as in Ethiopia and Togo. projects that use community-based approaches, Nonetheless, seed-related activities have so far but there is little evidence that these approaches, made only a modest contribution to increases in as used in projects in Ghana and Tanzania, for crop production. Bank projects have also not example, are able to respond to agro-ecological been able to address the issue of limited use of diversity. seeds by farmers because of inadequate access to complementary inputs. Fluctuating rainfall and droughts. Bank projects completed through fiscal 2006 have been Farmers' access to credit and rural finance. Overall responsive to drought emergencies and have support from the Bank in this critical area has helped governments set up drought manage- been limited. Aside from institutional capacity ment systems. But they have not been able to weaknesses in client countries, one reason for help countries such as Malawi, for example, this low level of support has been weak project develop a long-term strategic approach to performance in this area, brought about by, address the basic factors that create food insecu- among other things, weak implementation of rity--that is, to help countries increase agricul- Bank guidelines, particularly regarding eligibility tural productivity sufficiently to arrest declining and performance of financial intermediaries. x x v i E X E C UT I V E S U M M A RY There is need for the Bank to take greater care in The Millennium Development Project Hunger designing and supervising these operations, and Task Force concluded in 2005 that the world all options should continue to be explored for could meet the MDG of halving hunger by 2015. the most appropriate way to provide farmers Development of African agriculture is critical to with the means necessary to increase productiv- achieving this goal, and the World Bank can make ity and incomes. a major contribution because it is one of the largest sources of development finance for Poor transport infrastructure. Bank-supported agriculture and can provide policy advice to agriculture interventions have made only a governments. limited contribution to improving transport infrastructure to promote market access for Key Findings on Bank and agricultural development. Country Factors of Performance Weak extension. The Bank has helped raise client Bank factors awareness about the importance of extension to · The institution's strategy for the development agricultural development. It currently supports a of the agriculture sector has been part of its range of partnership approaches (public-private, rural strategy, and over time the importance of demand-driven, nongovernmental organizations, agriculture in the Bank's rural strategy has de- and so on), as in Uganda. But the cost, effective- clined. Both arising from and contributing to ness, and sustainability of these approaches need this, technical skills to support agricultural de- to be systematically evaluated. velopment adequately have also declined over time. Data from the Human Resources De- Price and marketing reform. Though results have partment of the World Bank show that there been variable across countries, the Bank's effort were 17 technical experts mapped to the Agri- has contributed to improving the macroeco- culture and Rural Development Department in nomic environment and fiscal discipline in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2006, compared with 40 several countries. However, these changes were in 1997. not enough to stimulate private sector invest- · The Bank's diagnosis of a country's develop- ments in several critical areas from which the ment status and priorities in the agriculture sec- public sector withdrew. Consequently, most tor is carried out primarily through analytical countries in Africa face exorbitant fertilizer work. Until very recently this work has been prices, inadequate seed production, poor limited and not readily available. Nor have the transport, and limited credit access. While the findings from analytical work strategically in- reform process had limited positive impact formed Bank­client policy dialogue and lend- on food production, it nevertheless boosted ing program design. production of nontraditional export crops such · Bank policy advice appears to have had far- as mangoes from Mali and flowers from Kenya. reaching implications for the direction of agri- Beyond individual countries, the Bank lobbied cultural development in African countries, in for a genuinely pro-development Doha Round particular its policy advice associated with and for elimination of OECD agricultural the adjustment agenda. However, results have subsidies in international forums, but with fallen short of expectations because of weak limited success to date. political support and insufficient apprecia- tion of reality on the ground, among other Insecurity of tenure. Analytical work has con- things. tributed to a better understanding of property · The Bank's data systems and support for M&E rights regimes. But the Bank has found it have been insufficient to adequately inform difficult to provide effective support in this area the institution's effort to develop agriculture because of its political, social, and cultural in Africa across a broad front. Current data sensitivity. systems do not allow the institution to track in x x v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A enough detail how much is being provided Recommendations for development of specific activities such as To effectively support the implementation of the seed development and credit. M&E at the proj- Africa Action Plan and its appropriate focus on ect level has been of limited value in answer- agricultural development as a key priority, IEG ing fundamental questions about outcome, recommends that the Bank: impact, and efficiency, such as who benefited, which crops received support and how, what 1. Focus attention to achieve improvements in has been the comparative cost effectiveness, agricultural productivity: and to what can one attribute gains. · Establish realistic goals for expansion of ir- rigation and recognize the need to increase Country factors productivity of rain-fed agriculture through · Although the governance environment in sev- improvements in land quality, as well as eral African countries continues to be weak, po- water and drought management. litical commitment for the development of · Help design efficient mechanisms, includ- agriculture in client countries appears stronger ing public-private partnerships, to provide than in the past. African governments, many of farmers with critical inputs, including fer- which were allocating less than 1 percent of tilizers, water, credit, and seeds. their budget to agriculture, agreed in July 2003 · Support the development of marketing and at the African Union Summit to allocate at least transport infrastructure. 10 percent of national budgetary resources for 2. Improve its work on agriculture: programs to support agricultural growth in · Increase the quantity and quality of analytical the next five years. work on agriculture and ensure that policy ad- · Considerable agricultural research capacity vice and lending are grounded in its findings. exists, although the sustainability of the ac- · Support public expenditure analyses to as- tivities supported remains uncertain. Overall, sess resource availability for agriculture and government capacity in several countries re- to help set Bank priorities. mains weak, and local agriculture ministries are · Rebuild its technical skills, based on a com- still relatively ineffective partners in promot- prehensive assessment of current gaps. ing development of the agriculture sector. 3. Establish benchmarks for measuring progress: Though further analysis is needed, the study · Improve data systems to better track activ- finding that largely agricultural projects in ities supported by the Bank. countries with less favorable agricultural con- · Strengthen M&E to report on project ac- ditions have done better than similar projects tivities in various agro-ecological zones and in countries with more favorable conditions for different crops and farmer categories, in- suggests that other factors--such as political cluding women. economy and country capacity--are also a · Develop a system to coordinate agricultural challenge for agricultural development in activities in a country with road access, mar- Africa. ket proximity, and soil conditions. x x v i i i Synthèse L 'Afrique subsaharienne est une région très complexe composée de 47 pays ayant connu sept histoires coloniales distinctes. Elle est également très diversifiée puisqu'elle compte 700 millions d'habitants issus d'au moins un millier de groupes ethniques. Le développement de l'Afrique est une priorité stratégique. Le continent compte quelques-uns des pays les plus pauvres au monde. Au cours des vingt dernières années, le nombre de pauvres y a doublé pour atteindre 300 millions -- soit plus de 40 % de la population totale. L'Afrique accuse un retard dans la réalisation de la plupart des objec- tifs de développement pour le Millénaire (ODM) et a peu de chances de les atteindre d'ici à 2015. Les mauvais résultats du secteur de l'agriculture plan. Les compétences techniques nécessaires à constituent l'un des principaux freins au l'appui du développement agricole se sont en développement de l'Afrique. Ce secteur revêt conséquence amenuisées au fil du temps, une importance de premier plan pour la région phénomène qui a lui-même entretenu cette du fait qu'il représente une part notable du situation. produit intérieur brut (PIB) et de l'emploi. Sa mauvaise performance tient à différents L'aide modérée ­ et, jusque récemment, en repli problèmes qui sont particuliers à l'agriculture ­ apportée par la Banque mondiale pour africaine et font de son développement un enjeu remédier aux problèmes de l'agriculture n'a pas complexe. La mauvaise gouvernance et les été utilisée de manière stratégique pour satisfaire conflits qui sévissent dans plusieurs pays ne font aux besoins divers d'un secteur qui appelle des que compliquer la situation. L'IEG a mesuré l'effi- interventions coordonnées dans divers domaines. cacité de l'aide apportée par la Banque mondiale Les prêts consentis par la Banque ont été en vue de résoudre les obstacles au développe- « dispersés » entre différentes activités agricoles, ment agricole en Afrique entre les exercices91 et telles que la recherche, la vulgarisation, le crédit, 06 dans le cadre d'une étude pilote préalable à les semences et les réformes de l'espace rural, une évaluation plus générale de l'assistance mais sans guère tirer parti de leurs synergies qu'elle fournit à l'agriculture à l'échelle éventuelles pour favoriser valablement le dévelop- mondiale. pement agricole. En conséquence, malgré la réussite comparative affichée dans certains La conclusion essentielle de l'étude est que le domaines, comme la recherche, les résultats ont secteur agricole a été négligé tant par les gouver- été limités en raison des liens ténus avec la nements que par la communauté des bailleurs vulgarisation et de la disponibilité insuffisante de fonds, Banque mondiale comprise. La straté- d'intrants complémentaires et critiques tels que gie de la Banque pour l'agriculture a progressive- les engrais et l'eau. La Banque mondiale n'est ment été intégrée à un objectif rural de plus donc pas parvenue véritablement au développe- grande envergure où elle est passée au second ment de l'agriculture africaine. x x i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Les problèmes de l'agriculture africaine tion alimentaire n'a pu s'adapter à la flambée La production agricole africaine a progressé, démographique, et les importations ont rapide- mais il est difficile de calculer un taux qui rende ment augmenté. Dans le même temps ses réellement compte de cette progression à exportations, essentiellement composées de l'échelle de la région pour la période couverte produits agricoles, ont fléchi ; sa part du marché par l'étude, en raison des disparités importantes mondial pour plusieurs produits de base, dont le entre les pays et des variations dans le temps. café, s'est volatilisée. Les subventions agricoles Dans certains pays, comme le Gabon, les des pays membres de l'Organisation de coopéra- résultats médiocres enregistrés entre 1990 et tion et de développement économiques (OCDE) 2000 se sont redressés entre 2000 et 2004. ont puissamment contribué à maintenir le prix D'autres, comme le Malawi, ont connu une de plusieurs de ces produits à un bas niveau ce évolution inverse. La mutation a souvent été qui, entre autres facteurs, a pénalisé la rémuné- spectaculaire, ce qui fait que les taux de ration des agriculteurs. croissance agrégés sont trompeurs. En Angola, par exemple, l'agriculture a progressé de 13,7 % En Afrique, l'agriculture est principalement une par an entre 2000 et 2004, alors qu'elle avait activité familiale. La majorité des agriculteurs reculé de 1,4 % par an entre 1990 et 2000. Un sont de petits exploitants qui possèdent entre quart seulement des pays de la région, dont le 0,5 et 2 hectares de terre, selon les facteurs Bénin, le Burkina Faso, le Ghana, le Nigéria et la socioculturels. Les femmes constituent environ Tanzanie, affichent une croissance agricole 50 % de la main d'oeuvre et produisent l'essentiel régulière de plus de 3 % pour la période des cultures vivrières consommées par la famille. comprise entre 1990 et 2004. Les terres agricoles se répartissent entre plusieurs Les cultures vivrières constituent l'essentiel de la zones agroécologiques qui couvrent différents production agricole totale de l'Afrique. Les pays. La pauvreté des sols, la forte variabilité des cultures d'exportation en représentent moins de précipitations et la fréquence élevée des 10 %. Si certaines cultures d'exportation, dont le sécheresses en sont les principales caractéris- coton, ont concouru à l'allègement de la pauvreté tiques. L'infrastructure de transport est insuffi- dans des pays tels que le Burkina Faso, le sante, l'accès à l'irrigation limité et, en cas rendement des cultures vivrières a été médiocre d'agriculture pluviale, l'insécurité alimentaire presque partout. Même pendant la période chronique est une réalité pour des millions de comprise entre 2003 et 2005, les rendements petits agriculteurs. Pour survivre dans cet céréaliers de l'Afrique ont été inférieurs de plus environnement hostile, la plupart des agricul- de moitié à ceux de l'Asie du Sud et d'un tiers à teurs ont recours à des stratégies d'adaptation ceux de l'Amérique latine. L'Afrique est diversifiées. Pour être certains d'obtenir un également en retard par rapport à d'autres minimum de produits de leur terre, ils plantent régions en termes de pourcentage de terres habituellement plusieurs variétés végétales (une agricoles irriguées, d'utilisation d'engrais, et de dizaine au moins en général) ayant des cycles de productivité du travail et de la terre par travailleur. maturation différents, ainsi que des arbres. Le Alors que les progrès remarquables de la produc- bétail est aussi pour eux une source importante tion agricole de l'Asie du Sud entre 1961 et 2001 de sécurité, surtout en période difficile. L'accès ont essentiellement été dus à la hausse des au crédit du petit exploitant type est aussi rendements, l'augmentation de la production extrêmement restreint. Les cultures rustiques, alimentaire en Afrique a principalement tenu à comme le millet, le sorgho, le manioc et d'autres l'expansion des terres cultivées. Pendant ce plantes à racines, sont plus importantes que des temps, les rendements agricoles ont stagné. céréales telles que le riz et le blé, qui ont été à la base de la Révolution verte en Asie. En 1973, l'Afrique est devenue importatrice nette de produits alimentaires. Par la suite, la produc- Dans ce contexte, pour inciter les agriculteurs à x x x SY N T H È S E pratiquer une agriculture intensive et à prendre données de l'OCDE montrent que si la contribu- le risque de semer de nouvelles variétés, tion globale des bailleurs de fonds bilatéraux a plusieurs facteurs doivent être réunis, ou tout du été comparativement supérieure, la Banque moins s'enchaîner de manière optimale, à savoir mondiale a été le principal donateur à l'agricul- : l'accès à des semences des semences amélio- ture africaine entre 1990 et 2005, les plus gros rées, à l'eau, à des crédits et aux marchés ; de bailleurs de fonds bilatéraux étant les États-Unis judicieux conseils de vulgarisation ; et des et le Japon. rendements suffisants, en l'absence de distorsion des prix des intrants et des extrants. Une straté- Les apports de capitaux étrangers privés sont gie de développement de l'agriculture en Afrique modestes en comparaison aux apports bilatéraux doit tenir compte de chacun de ces facteurs dans et multilatéraux (Hazell et von Braun 2006). le cadre des particularités propres au continent L'investissement commercial privé dans l'agricul- et des situations locales spécifiques. ture africaine s'est en grande partie cantonné aux cultures d'exportations et aux zones présentant L'agriculture africaine : un meilleur potentiel. Plusieurs entreprises Approches antérieures semencières internationales ont investi dans la Jusque très récemment, le développement multiplication de semences de maïs et, en agricole de l'Afrique a été négligé tant par les septembre 2006, la fondation Rockefeller et la autorités nationales que par les bailleurs de Fondation Bill et Melinda Gates ont donné le fonds. Dans les années 60, tout de suite après coup d'envoi à un nouveau partenariat pour l'indépendance, les gouvernements de plusieurs aider l'Afrique à développer son agriculture. pays africains voyaient avant tout dans l'agricul- ture un moyen de produire des ressources pour Le potentiel de l'agriculture et la l'industrialisation. Plus tard, dans les années 70, stratégie de la Banque mondiale la Banque mondiale a été la première à adopter Pour que l'Afrique atteigne les ODM, il faudra pour le continent un modèle de développement réaliser le potentiel du secteur agricole et prêter plus large, qui s'inscrivait dans l'évolution plus l'assistance nécessaire pour que celui-ci générale de la théorie du développement. L'insti- concoure à la croissance et à la lutte contre la tution a ainsi adhéré au développement rural pauvreté. Les études de Dorosh et Haggblade intégré pour s'attaquer de front à la pauvreté et (2003) et de l'IFPRI (2006a) ont constaté que les au sous-développement ruraux en Afrique. Au investissements dans l'agriculture sont générale- milieu des années 80, alors que les pays africains ment plus bénéfiques aux pauvres que des étaient confrontés à de graves crises budgétaires, investissements équivalents dans l'industrie les bailleurs de fonds ont donné priorité à l'allo- manufacturière. cation plus efficiente des ressources et ont appelé à des réformes du système de commer- La Banque mondiale n'a pas adopté de stratégie cialisation des produits agricoles. Les réformes particulière pour l'agriculture en Afrique, si ce structurelles n'ont cependant pas permis de n'est dans le cadre de ses stratégies globales de produire les résultats souhaités en termes de développement rural et, avec le temps, sa straté- croissance. gie agricole a été intégrée à un projet rural de plus grande ampleur. Plus récemment, toutefois, Le rôle de l'aide le Plan d'action pour l'Afrique a pris le potentiel Entre 1981 et 2001, l'aide bilatérale et multilaté- de croissance du secteur agricole en considéra- rale au développement de l'agriculture africaine tion. a diminué, passant de 1 921 millions de dollars à 997 millions de dollars (en dollars de 2001). L'assistance globale de la Banque Les prêts émanant de ces deux sources ont mondiale et son évaluation augmenté depuis lors suite au recentrage des Entre les exercices 91 et 06, la Banque mondiale priorités sur le développement de l'Afrique. Les a consenti aux pays de la région Afrique des prêts x x x i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A à l'investissement (par opposition aux prêts l'interdépendance des activités agricoles. Au d'ajustement) dans l'agriculture d'un montant contraire, ils ont été répartis sur un éventail de 2,8 milliards de dollars, soit 8 % du montant d'opérations portant sur le secteur rural, total des prêts à l'investissement qu'elle a notamment la recherche, la vulgarisation, la accordés à la région. Une part substantielle de réforme de la commercialisation, la lutte contre ces prêts a revêtu la forme de composantes la sécheresse, le développement de semences et agricoles de projets ruraux. La Banque a par les transports, mais ont fait peu de cas des liens ailleurs approuvé 77 prêts à l'appui des qui les unissent et de la nécessité de développer politiques de développement comportant un ces domaines simultanément, ou tout du moins volet agricole. Dans 18 d'entre eux, l'agriculture selon un enchaînement optimal, pour favoriser était une composante appréciable. efficacement le développement agricole. Si, à compter du milieu des années 80, la stratégie Ces prêts limités à l'investissement ont obtenu rurale plus globale de la Banque se justifiait, elle des résultats insuffisants. Selon les données du a eu pour conséquence imprévue de faire perdre GIE, le pourcentage de projets d'investissement de vue la nécessité de conduire certaines activi- essentiellement agricoles dont les résultats ont tés essentielles au développement de l'agricul- été jugés satisfaisants entre 1991 et 2006 (60 %) ture dans l'espace rural simultanément ou selon est inférieur à celui des projets d'investissement un agencement optimal. non agricoles dans la région (65 %). Il est aussi inférieur à celui de projets d'investissements L'examen de l'IEG a constaté qu'aucun des dix similaires dans d'autres régions de la Banque premiers pays emprunteurs, dont la Côte mondiale, dont 73 % ont affiché des résultats d'Ivoire, l'Éthiopie, l'Ouganda et la Tanzanie, satisfaisants. Leurs notes de viabilité ont n'avait bénéficié d'une aide homogène et également été inférieures à la moyenne. Bien simultanée dans tous les sous-secteurs critiques. que d'autres analyses s'imposent, l'étude a Il ne s'agit pas de proposer que la Banque observé que les projets à forte composante mondiale apporte seule ce type d'assistance (un agricole conduits dans les pays où les conditions partenariat serait selon toute probabilité plus sont moins propices à l'agriculture ont enregis- efficace), mais on pourrait s'attendre à ce qu'elle tré de meilleurs résultats que des projets prenne l'initiative d'encourager une démarche analogues exécutés dans des pays où les pluridimensionnelle de cette nature, fondée sur conditions sont plus favorables. son avantage comparatif en tant qu'institution de prêt multisectorielle. Pour appuyer le développement agricole en Afrique, la Banque mondiale a axé ses opérations Les résultats par domaines sur les prêts, les études analytiques et les activi- Une évaluation des réussites et des lacunes de tés de conseil. Jusque très récemment, les études l'aide apportée par la Banque mondiale dans analytiques ­ nécessaires au diagnostic des chaque grand domaine dévoile un bilan mitigé : problèmes et à la définition d'interventions, ainsi qu'à la formulation de conseils stratégiques et Diversité agroécologique. L'assistance de la aux opérations de prêt ­ étaient rares, disper- Banque mondiale a permis de renforcer la sées, de qualité variable et peu accessibles. L'IEG capacité des systèmes nationaux de recherche et a en outre constaté qu'il n'existait pas de de mettre sur pied des stations dans les procédures particulières pour vérifier que les différentes zones pour orienter les études sur dialogues avec les autorités et les négociations l'agroécologie. Il ne semble cependant pas que de prêts prennent systématiquement en compte ses projets dans des domaines autres que la les conclusions de ces études. recherche aient systématiquement adapté les opérations aux spécificités agroécologiques L'IEG a observé que les prêts accordés par la variées des différents pays. L'attrait essentiel des Banque mondiale ne tenaient pas compte de projets qui font appel à des stratégies com- x x x i i SY N T H È S E munautaires était leur aptitude à s'adapter aux Semences améliorées. La Banque mondiale a situations locales, mais rien ne permet d'affirmer participé au Groupe consultatif pour la que ces stratégies, telles qu'appliquées dans les recherche agricole internationale (CGIAR), dont projets conduits au Ghana et en Tanzanie, par le concours dans ce domaine a été notable. Les exemple, soient capables de tenir compte de la projets qu'elle a conduits ont également offert la diversité agroécologique. possibilité de tester les technologies et de les développer, comme en Éthiopie et au Togo. Cela Variabilité des précipitations et des sécheresses. étant, les opérations associées aux semences Les projets que la Banque mondiale avaient n'ont à ce stade apporté qu'une modeste contri- mené à terme à la fin de l'exercice 06 ont tenu bution à l'augmentation de la production compte des situations d'urgence créées par les agricole. Les projets de la Banque mondiale n'ont sécheresses, et ont aidé les autorités à établir des pas non plus été en mesure de résoudre le dispositifs de gestion des sécheresses. Ils n'ont problème de l'usage limité que les agriculteurs cependant pas été en mesure d'aider des pays font des semences en raison de l'accès difficile tels que le Malawi, par exemple, à élaborer une aux intrants complémentaires. approche stratégique de long terme pour remédier aux causes fondamentales de l'insécu- Accès des agriculteurs au crédit et à la finance rité alimentaire ­ autrement dit, à aider les pays à rurale. Globalement, l'aide de la Banque augmenter suffisamment leur productivité mondiale dans ce domaine stratégique a été agricole afin de mettre un terme à la diminution limitée. Outre l'insuffisance des capacités institu- des ressources alimentaires par habitant. À cet tionnelles des pays clients, cette faiblesse égard, si la Banque a concouru au développe- s'explique par les mauvais résultats des projets ment de variétés améliorées de millet et de dans ce domaine qui tiennent, entre autres, à manioc au travers de son aide à la recherche, elle l'application déficiente des directives de la n'a pas su mesurer le rôle capital que le manioc Banque, surtout en ce qui concerne les critères peut jouer au service de la sécurité alimentaire de sélection des intermédiaires financiers et de dans la majorité des pays. leurs prestations. La Banque mondiale doit élaborer et superviser plus soigneusement ces Faible fertilité des sols. La Banque mondiale a opérations, et continuer d'examiner toutes les participé à plusieurs projets internationaux et solutions envisageables pour définir au mieux régionaux dans ce domaine, notamment à comment donner aux agriculteurs les moyens l'initiative régionale TerrAfrica, lancée en 2005. dont ils ont besoin pour accroître leur producti- Ce partenariat pluridimensionnel est censé vité et leurs revenus. favoriser une approche collective à la gestion durable des terres dans la région. Les opérations Médiocrité de l'infrastructure de transports. Les de prêt de la Banque semblent toutefois avoir interventions financées par la Banque mondiale abordé la fertilité des sols sous un angle dans le secteur agricole n'ont que faiblement écologique plutôt qu'en termes de productivité concouru à l'amélioration de l'infrastructure de agricole. transport pour faciliter l'accès aux marchés et, partant, le développement de l'agriculture. Approvisionnement en eau. Bien que la Banque mondiale ait établi que des investissements dans Insuffisance des opérations de vulgarisation l'irrigation s'imposaient, elle n'a consacré que agricole. La Banque mondiale a sensibilisé les très peu de prêts à cet objectif. Ses interventions clients à l'importance de la vulgarisation pour le à l'appui de la gestion de l'eau dans les zones non développement agricole. Elle appuie actuelle- irriguées ont atteint des objectifs matériels mais, ment divers projets conduits en partenariat étant donné la médiocrité du suivi et de l'évalua- (partenariats public-privé ou déterminés par la tion, il est difficile de définir ce qui a fonctionné demande, organisations non gouvernementales, ou pas. etc.), en Ouganda par exemple. Il faudrait toute- x x x i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A fois systématiquement évaluer les coûts, l'effica- Conclusions essentielles quant aux cité et la viabilité de ces projets. facteurs de performance de la Banque mondiale et des pays Réforme des prix et de la commercialisation. Bien que les résultats varient selon les pays, les Les facteurs de performance de la Banque mesures appliquées par la Banque mondiale ont mondiale permis d'améliorer la conjoncture macroécono- · La stratégie de l'institution pour le dévelop- mique et la discipline budgétaire dans plusieurs pement du secteur agricole s'inscrit dans le pays. Ces réformes n'ont cependant pas suffi à cadre de sa stratégie rurale et, avec le temps, stimuler l'investissement privé dans divers la place de l'agriculture dans cette stratégie a domaines stratégiques d'où le secteur privé s'est rétréci. En conséquence, les compétences tech- retiré. Par conséquent, la plupart des pays niques nécessaires pour oeuvrer valablement africains font face aux prix exorbitants des au développement agricole se sont peu à peu engrais, à la production insuffisante de émoussées, phénomène qui a à son tour en- semences, à un système de transports tretenu cette situation. Selon les chiffres com- défectueux, et à l'accès limité au crédit. Si le muniqués par le Département des ressources processus de réformes n'a eu que peu de humaines de la Banque mondiale, 17 experts retombées favorables sur la production alimen- techniques du Département de l'agriculture et taire, il a dynamisé la production de cultures du développement rural étaient chargés de d'exportation non traditionnelles, comme les l'Afrique subsaharienne en 2006, alors qu'ils mangues au Mali et les fleurs au Kenya. Au-delà étaient 40 en 1997. de son action à l'échelle de chaque pays, la · C'est essentiellement au travers d'études ana- Banque est intervenue pour que le cycle de lytiques que la Banque définit l'état de déve- négociations de Doha serve véritablement le loppement d'un pays et les priorités dans le développement et a plaidé en faveur de la secteur agricole. Jusque très récemment, ces suppression des subventions à l'agriculture des études étaient peu nombreuses et difficile- pays de l'OCDE dans les instances internatio- ment accessibles. Qui plus est, leurs conclu- nales. Elle n'a toutefois obtenu que peu de sions n'ont guidé ni le dialogue de la Banque résultats à ce jour. avec les autorités des pays clients, ni l'élabo- ration des programmes de prêt. Précarité du régime foncier. Les études analytiques · Les conseils de la Banque semblent avoir for- réalisées ont permis de mieux appréhender les tement influencé l'orientation du développe- régimes de droits fonciers. Étant donné ses ment agricole dans les pays africains, sensibilités politiques, sociales et culturelles, la notamment ceux associés au programme Banque mondiale a cependant jugé difficile d'ajustement. Les résultats n'ont toutefois pas d'apporter une aide efficace dans ce domaine. été à la hauteur des attentes en raison, no- tamment, d'un appui politique insuffisant et En 2005, le Groupe de travail sur la faim du projet d'une appréciation incomplète des réalités sur Objectifs du Millénaire a abouti à la conclusion le terrain. que l'ODM consistant à diminuer la faim de · Les systèmes de données de la Banque mon- moitié d'ici à 2015 était réalisable. Le développe- diale et l'aide au suivi et à l'évaluation n'ont pas ment de l'agriculture africaine est l'élément permis d'éclairer de manière satisfaisante les capital à la concrétisation de cet objectif. La opérations engagées par l'institution pour dé- Banque mondiale est en mesure d'y apporter un velopper l'agriculture sur un large front en concours essentiel, puisqu'elle est l'une des Afrique. Les systèmes de données actuels ne lui sources majeures de financement du développe- permettent pas de suivre suffisamment en dé- ment pour l'agriculture et peut conseiller les tail les montants alloués à la mise en place autorités quant aux mesures à adopter. d'opérations spécifiques comme le dévelop- x x x i v SY N T H È S E pement des semences et le crédit. Le suivi et développement agricole qu'il s'est judicieuse- l'évaluation à l'échelon des projets n'ont guère ment fixé, l'IEG formule à l'intention de la Banque permis de répondre aux questions fonda- mondiale les recommandations suivantes : mentales portant sur leurs résultats, leurs re- tombées et leur efficacité, pour savoir par 1. Privilégier l'amélioration de la productivité exemple quels en ont été les bénéficiaires, agricole : quelles cultures ont bénéficié d'une aide et · Établir des objectifs réalistes en matière selon quelles modalités, quelle a été leur ren- d'expansion de l'irrigation et prendre tabilité comparative, et à quels facteurs les conscience de la nécessité d'augmenter la progrès sont imputables. productivité de l'agriculture non irriguée par l'amélioration de la qualité des terres et Les facteurs nationaux par la gestion de l'eau et des sécheresses. · Malgré les failles persistantes de la gouver- · Participer à l'élaboration de mécanismes ef- nance dans plusieurs pays africains, l'engage- ficients, dont des partenariats public-privé, ment politique des pays clients envers le pour fournir aux agriculteurs les intrants développement de l'agriculture semble plus indispensables, notamment des engrais, de ferme qu'auparavant. Les gouvernements afri- l'eau, des crédits et des semences. cains, dont beaucoup allouaient moins de 1 % · Appuyer le développement des infrastruc- de leur budget à l'agriculture, ont convenu au tures de commercialisation et de transport. Sommet de l'Union africaine, qui s'est tenu 2. Améliorer ses études dans le domaine de l'agri- en juillet 2003, d'affecter au moins 10 % des culture : ressources budgétaires nationales à des pro- · Augmenter la quantité et la qualité des grammes destinés à favoriser la croissance agri- études analytiques portant sur l'agriculture cole au cours des cinq prochaines années. et veiller à ce que ses opérations de conseil · La capacité de recherche agronomique exis- et de prêt se fondent sur leurs conclusions. tante est considérable, mais la viabilité des · Appuyer les analyses des dépenses pu- opérations soutenues par la Banque reste aléa- bliques de manière à évaluer les ressources toire. Dans l'ensemble, la capacité de l'admi- disponibles pour l'agriculture et à définir ses nistration publique de plusieurs pays demeure propres priorités. insuffisante, et les ministères de l'agriculture · Restaurer ses compétences techniques à sont encore des partenaires relativement in- partir d'une évaluation complète de ses la- efficaces pour favoriser le développement du cunes actuelles. secteur agricole. Bien que d'autres analyses 3. Établir des indicateurs afin de mesurer les pro- s'imposent, l'étude a révélé que les projets à grès : forte composante agricole exécutés dans les · Perfectionner les systèmes de données pour pays où les conditions sont moins propices à mieux suivre les opérations qu'elle finance. l'agriculture ont enregistré de meilleurs ré- · Consolider le dispositif de suivi et d'éva- sultats que des projets analogues conduits luation pour rendre compte des activités dans des pays aux conditions plus favorables, conduites dans le cadre des projets dans di- ce qui semble indiquer que d'autres facteurs, verses zones agroécologiques, et pour dif- tels que l'économie politique et la capacité na- férentes cultures et catégories d'agriculteurs, tionale, font également obstacle au dévelop- y compris les femmes. pement de l'agriculture en Afrique. · Mettre sur pied un système permettant de coordonner les opérations agricoles à Recommandations l'échelle des pays en fonction de leur réseau Pour appuyer utilement la mise en oeuvre du Plan routier, de la proximité des marchés et des d'action pour l'Afrique et l'objectif prioritaire de conditions édaphiques. x x x v Resumo Executivo A África Subsariana é uma Região muito complexa, composta por 47 pa- íses com 7 histórias coloniais nitidamente diferentes. É também uma Região muito diversa, com mais de 700 milhões de pessoas e pelo menos 1.000 grupos étnicos diferentes. A Região constitui uma prioridade principal para o desenvolvimento. Nela encontram-se alguns dos países mais pobres do mundo, e durante as duas últimas décadas o número de pessoas pobres na Região duplicou, passando para 300 milhões-- mais de 40 por cento da po- pulação da Região. A África continua a ficar para trás no que respeita a maio- ria dos Objectivos de Desenvolvimento para o Milénio (ODM) e é pouco provável que os alcance até ao ano de 2015. O principal impedimento ao desenvolvimento mais ampla, o que diminuiu a sua importância. da África é o fraco desempenho do sector da Decorrente disso e contribuindo para isso, a agricultura. Este sector reveste uma importância competência técnica para apoiar adequada- fundamental para a Região visto que tem uma mente o desenvolvimento da agricultura grande participação no produto interno bruto também diminuiu com o tempo. (PIB) e no emprego. O fraco desempenho do sector deriva de vários constrangimentos que são O apoio limitado, e até recentemente decres- específicos à agricultura em África e tornam o seu cente, do Banco para abordar os constrangimen- desenvolvimento um desafio complexo. A debili- tos à agricultura não foi utilizado estra- dade da governação e os conflitos em diversos tegicamente para suprir as necessidades diversas países complicam as coisas ainda mais. O IEG de um sector que requer uma intervenção avaliou a eficácia para o desenvolvimento da coordenada numa grande variedade de activida- assistência prestada pelo Banco Mundial ao des. O apoio dos empréstimos do Banco tem abordar os constrangimentos existentes para o sido "espalhado" por várias actividades agrícolas, desenvolvimento da agricultura na África durante tais como, investigação, extensão, crédito, o período compreendido entre os anos fiscais de sementes e reformas de política no espaço rural, 1991 e 2006, a título experimental, para depois mas a sinergia potencial entre eles, para contri- realizar uma avaliação mais ampla da assistência buir efectivamente para o desenvolvimento da prestada pelo Banco à agricultura em todo o agricultura, pouco foi reconhecida. Consequen- mundo. temente, o Banco tem tido um êxito limitado na sua contribuição para o desenvolvimento da A conclusão central do estudo é que o sector da agricultura na África. agricultura tem sido negligenciado tanto pelos governos como pela comunidade de doadores, Os Desafios da Agricultura Africana incluindo o Banco Mundial. A estratégia do A produção agrícola aumentou na África, mas é Banco para a agricultura está cada vez mais difícil calcular uma taxa de crescimento confiável subordinada ao âmbito de uma focalização rural para a Região durante o período em estudo x x x v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A devido às grandes variações que existem entre os que se baseiam principalmente na agricultura, países e através do tempo. Alguns países, tais decresceram; no caso de certos produtos, como o Gabão, passaram de um desempenho incluindo o café, a participação da Região no fraco em 1990 ­ 2000 para um desempenho mercado mundial evaporou-se. Os subsídios à melhor em 2000 ­ 2004; outros países, tais como agricultura nos países membros da Organização o Malawi, mudou num sentido diferente. A para a Cooperação e o Desenvolvimento modificação foi frequentemente espectacular, o Económico (OCDE) tiveram um importante que faz com que as taxas de crescimento agrega- papel em manter baixos os preços mundiais de das sejam enganosas. Por exemplo, a agricultura vários desses produtos agrícolas. Isto, entre em Angola cresceu a um ritmo de 13,7 por cento outros factores, teve repercussões sobre a anuais durante o período de 2000 ­ 2004, adequação dos rendimentos dos agricultores. embora tenha havido uma contracção do cresci- mento de 1,4 por cento anuais durante o período A agricultura na África é principalmente uma de 1990-2000. Apenas um quarto dos países da actividade familiar, e a maioria dos agricultores Região, entre os quais o Benin, o Burkina Faso, o são pequenos proprietários de terrenos com Gana, a Nigéria e a Tanzânia mostram um cresci- uma extensão que varia entre 0,5 e 2,0 hectares, mento constante da agricultura de mais de 3 por conforme determinarem os factores sócio- cento no período de 1990 ­ 2004. culturais. As mulheres fornecem cerca de metade da força de trabalho e produzem a A produção agrícola total da África consiste maioria dos produtos alimentares que a família principalmente em cultivos alimentares. Os consome. produtos agrícolas para exportação representam menos de 10 por cento da produção total. Se As terras agrícolas em África encontram-se em bem que alguns produtos de exportação, várias zonas agro-ecológicas que se estendem incluindo o algodão, tenham contribuído para por diversos países. Caracterizam-se em grande aliviar a pobreza em países como o Burkina Faso, medida por solos de má qualidade, pluviosidade os cultivos alimentares tiveram um fraco muito variável, e secas frequentes. As infra- desempenho na maioria dos países. A produção estruturas de transportes são deficientes, o de cereais em África, mesmo em 2003-- 2005, foi acesso à irrigação é limitado e, nas condições de menos de metade da do Sul da Ásia e um terço cultivos de sequeiro, a insegurança alimentar é da produção da América Latina. A África também uma realidade para milhões de pequenos agricul- está atrás de outras regiões na percentagem de tores. Para sobreviverem neste ambiente inauspí- terrenos cultivados irrigados, na utilização de cio, a maior parte dos agricultores seguem uma fertilizantes, e na produtividade dos trabalhado- diversidade de estratégias para enfrentarem a res e das terras. Embora os grandes avanços na situação. Para assegurar que obtêm pelo menos produção agrícola da Ásia do Sul entre 1961 e alguns produtos agrícolas das suas terras, os 2001 tenham sido principalmente o resultado de agricultores africanos plantam normalmente maiores rendimentos, os aumentos da produção uma variedade de cultivos (normalmente 10 ou de alimentos em África foram produzidos mais) com diferentes períodos de maturação, sobretudo através da ampliação das terras juntamente com árvores. O gado também é uma cultivadas. Entretanto, o rendimento dos cultivos fonte importante de segurança para os agriculto- estagnou. res da África, especialmente em anos de escassez. O acesso a crédito pelo pequeno A partir de 1973 a África tornou-se um importa- proprietário médio também é extremamente dor de bens alimentares. Desde essa época a limitado. Os cultivos resistentes, tais como o produção de alimentos não acompanha o ritmo milho-miúdo, o sorgo, a mandioca e outras de crescimento rápido da população e as plantas tuberosas são mais importantes do que importações de alimentos aumentaram com os cereais, como o arroz e o trigo, que foram o celeridade. Entretanto, as exportações da África alimento principal da Revolução Verde da Ásia. R E S U M O E X E C UT I VO Nesta situação, para que os agricultores tenham de 2001). Os empréstimos de ambas as fontes um incentivo para praticarem a agricultura ressurgiram desde então, com uma focalização intensiva e assumam riscos com novas varieda- crescente no desenvolvimento da África. Os des de cultivos, é necessária a conjugação de dados da OCDE mostram que, se bem que os alguns factores, ou pelo menos que eles se doadores bilaterais agrupados tenham tido um apresentem numa sequência óptima, o que papel comparativamente mais importante, o inclui sementes melhoradas, água, crédito e Banco Mundial por si só foi o maior doador para acesso aos mercados; boa assessoria sobre os a agricultura africana entre 1990 e 2005. Os serviços de extensão; e rendimentos adequados maiores doadores bilaterais foram os Estados por meio de preços dos insumos e produtos Unidos e o Japão. isentos de distorções. Uma estratégia para o desenvolvimento da agricultura na África tem Os fluxos de capital estrangeiro privado para a que levar em conta cada um destes factores no África são modestos em comparação com as contexto das suas características singulares e das ajudas bilaterais e multilaterais (Hazell e von condições locais específicas da África. Braun 2006). O investimento privado comercial na agricultura africana tem-se limitado em As Abordagens do Passado à Agricultura grande medida aos produtos agrícolas para Africana exportação e às zonas com um maior potencial. Até muito recentemente, o desenvolvimento da Algumas empresas de sementes internacionais agricultura na África foi negligenciado, tanto investiram na multiplicação da semente do pelos governos como pelos doadores. Durante a milho, e em Setembro de 2006 as fundações de década de 1960, imediatamente após a Rockefeller e de Bill e Melinda Gates iniciaram independência, os governos de vários países conjuntamente uma nova parceria para ajudar a africanos consideravam que a agricultura era África a desenvolver a agricultura. principalmente fonte de recursos para a industrialização. Em seguida, na década de 1970, O Potencial da Agricultura e a Estratégia o Banco Mundial liderou a mudança para um do Banco modelo de desenvolvimento mais amplo da Para que a África alcance os Objectivos de África que era compatível com uma mudança Desenvolvimento para o Milénio (ODM) será mais geral na compreensão do desenvolvimento. necessário realizar o potencial do sector da Com isto, a instituição comprometeu-se a seguir agricultura, para prestar o apoio a que contribua a via do desenvolvimento rural integrado, para o crescimento e a redução da pobreza. A destinada a atacar directamente a pobreza e o investigação realizada por Dorosh e Haggblade subdesenvolvimento rurais na África. Em (em 2003) e o IFPRI (2006a) chegou à conclusão meados da década de 1980, quando os países que os investimentos na agricultura favorecem africanos enfrentavam crises fiscais graves, os geralmente as populações pobres da África mais doadores deram a prioridade a melhorar a do que investimentos semelhantes na indústria eficiência da repartição de recursos e pressiona- manufactureira. ram no sentido de serem adoptadas reformas da comercialização dos produtos agrícolas. Mas as O Banco Mundial não tem tido uma estratégia reformas estruturais também não chegaram a distinta para a agricultura na África, excepto produzir os efeitos desejados sobre o cresci- como fazendo parte das suas estratégias mais mento. amplas para o desenvolvimento rural, e com o tempo a estratégia para a agricultura foi subordi- O Papel das Ajudas nada a uma focalização mais ampla nas zonas A assistência bilateral e multilateral dos doadores rurais. Porém, mais recentemente, o Plano de para o desenvolvimento da agricultura na África Acção para a África reconheceu que o sector da diminuiu, passando de USD 1.921 milhões em agricultura era potencialmente o motor do 1981 para USD 997 milhões em 2001 (em dólares crescimento. x x x i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A A Assistência do Banco em Termos trabalho analítico sejam reflectidas sistematica- Globais e a Avaliação da Mesma mente nos empréstimos e no diálogo sobre as Durante os anos fiscais compreendidos entre medidas de política. 1991 e 2006, o Banco forneceu aos países da Região da África USD 2,8 biliões sob a forma de O IEG verificou que o apoio prestado pelo Banco empréstimos para o desenvolvimento (o que é sob a forma de empréstimos não reflectiu a distinto dos empréstimos para o ajustamento) interligação existente entre as várias actividades da agricultura, o que constituiu 8 por cento de na agricultura. Em vez disso, os empréstimos todos os empréstimos do Banco à Região para o foram "espalhados" por uma variedade de activi- desenvolvimento. Uma grande parte destes dades no espaço rural, incluindo a investigação, empréstimos foi concedida sob a forma de a extensão, as reformas da comercialização, o componentes da agricultura nos projectos rurais. alívio às secas, o desenvolvimento de sementes e Adicionalmente, foram concedidos 77 Emprésti- os transportes, mas pouco com um escasso mos para a Política de Desenvolvimento com reconhecimento das relações entre elas e da componentes para a agricultura, e em 18 deles a necessidade de desenvolver todas estas áreas agricultura teve uma dimensão importante. simultaneamente ou pelo menos numa sequên- cia óptima, para contribuir efectivamente para o Estes empréstimos limitados para o desenvolvi- desenvolvimento da agricultura. Embora a focali- mento tiveram um desempenho abaixo do zação mais ampla do Banco nas zonas rurais a normal. Os dados do IEG mostram que a percen- partir de meados de 1980 fosse justificada, um tagem de classificações de resultados satisfató- resultado indesejado foi ela levou a prestar rios para projectos de investimento sobretudo menos a atenção à necessidade de conjugar as na agricultura durante o período de 1991 ­ 2006 várias actividades que são cruciais para o é inferior à dos investimentos não relacionados desenvolvimento da agricultura no espaço rural com a agricultura na Região (60 por cento face a ou se elas terem lugar numa sequência óptima. 65 por cento satisfatórios). Também é inferior a percentagem para os projectos de investimento Esta análise verificou que nenhum dos dez semelhantes noutras Regiões do Banco (73 por maiores mutuários, entre os quais a Côte cento satisfatórios). As classificações da sustenta- d'Ivoire, a Etiópia, a Tanzânia, e o Uganda, bilidade também são inferiores à média. Embora receberam um apoio consistente e simultâneo seja necessário realizar análises adicionais, o em todos os subsectores fundamentais. Isto não estudo verificou que os projectos que se é uma sugestão para que o Banco o faça destinam em grande medida à agricultura em sozinho-- poderá mesmo ser feito melhor em países com condições menos favoráveis para a parceria-- mas poder-se-ia esperar razoavel- agricultura tiveram melhores resultados do que mente que o Banco assuma a liderança na os projectos semelhantes em países com promoção desta abordagem multifacetada, com condições mais favoráveis. base na sua vantagem comparativa como instituição que concede empréstimos multissec- As actividades do Banco de apoio ao desenvolvi- toriais. mento da agricultura na África compreenderam empréstimos, trabalho analítico e assessoria O Desempenho Temático política. Até muito recentemente o trabalho A avaliação das realizações e limitações do apoio analítico, que é necessário para fazer o diagnós- prestado pelo Banco por tema principal revela tico das questões e acções e para ajudar a definir uma experiência mista: a assessoria política e os empréstimos, foi limitado, disperso, de qualidade variável e não A diversidade agro-ecológica. O apoio do Banco era facilmente disponível. Adicionalmente, o IEG ajudou a aumentar as capacidades dos sistemas verificou que não existem procedimentos especí- nacionais de investigação e a desenvolver ficos para assegurar que as conclusões do estações zonais para dar uma focalização agro- x l R E S U M O E X E C UT I VO ecológica à investigação. Contudo, pouco indica hídricos nas zonas de sequeiro atingiram as que os projectos do Banco, a não ser as metas físicas mas, devido à debilidade da monito- intervenções de investigação, adaptaram rização e avaliação, é difícil dizer o que funcio- sistematicamente as actividades às condições nou e não funcionou. agro-ecológicas diversas. A capacidade de resposta às condições locais tem sido o atractivo As sementes melhoradas. O Banco contribuiu para principal dos projectos que seguem abordagens o Grupo Consultivo sobre a Investigação Agrícola baseadas nas comunidades, mas há poucas Internacional (CGIAR), fazendo grandes qual provas de que estas abordagens, tal como foram contribuições nesta área, e os projectos do seguidas em projectos no Gana e na Tanzânia, Banco também proporcionaram a oportunidade por exemplo, possam dar resposta à diversidade de testar e melhorar as tecnologias, como na agro-ecológica. Etiópia e no Togo. No entanto, as actividades relacionadas com as sementes fizeram até agora A flutuação da pluviosidade e das secas. Os projec- apenas uma contribuição modesta para o tos do Banco concluídos até ao fim do ano fiscal aumento da produção dos cultivos. Os projectos de 2006 foram responsivos às emergências do Banco também não puderam abordar a causadas pelas secas e ajudaram os governos a questão da utilização limitada de sementes pelos instaurar sistemas de gestão das secas. Mas não agricultores devido a um acesso inadequado a conseguiram ajudar países, como o Malawi por insumos complementares. exemplo, a desenvolver uma estratégica a longo prazo para abordar os factores básicos que criam O acesso dos agricultores ao crédito e ao financia- a insegurança alimentar, isto é, para ajudar os mento rural. Em termos globais, o apoio prestado países a aumentarem a produtividade agrícola de pelo Banco nesta área crucial foi limitado. Para maneira suficiente para travar o declínio da além da debilidade das capacidades institucio- disponibilidade per capita de alimentos. A este nais nos países clientes, uma razão para este respeito, se bem que o Banco tenha contribuído baixo nível de apoio foi o fraco desempenho dos para o desenvolvimento de variedades melhora- projectos nesta área, provocado, entre outras das de milho-miúdo e de mandioca, mediante o coisas, pela aplicação deficiente das directrizes apoio prestado à investigação, ele perdeu a do Banco, em particular no que respeita a oportunidade de reconhecer o papel importante elegibilidade e o desempenho dos intermediá- que a mandioca pode ter na promoção da rios financeiros. É necessário que o Banco tenha segurança alimentar na maioria dos países. mais cuidado na concepção e supervisão destas actividades, devendo continuar a ser exploradas Os solos pouco férteis. O Banco participou em todas as opções para dar aos agricultores de diversas iniciativas internacionais e regionais maneira mais apropriada os meios necessários sobre este assunto, incluindo a Iniciativa para aumentarem a produtividade e os Regional Terr África teve início em 2005. Esta rendimentos. parceria multidimensional deverá promover uma abordagem colectiva à gestão sustentável das A debilidade das infra-estruturas de transportes. terras na Região. Mas parece que os emprésti- As intervenções na agricultura apoiadas pelo mos do Banco abordaram a fertilidade dos solos Banco apenas fizeram uma contribuição limitada mais como uma questão ambiental do que uma ao melhoramento das infra-estruturas de questão de produtividade agrícola. transportes para o desenvolvimento da agricul- tura. O acesso a água. Embora o Banco tenha identifi- cado a necessidade de investimentos na A debilidade da extensão. O Banco auxiliou os irrigação, os empréstimos que concedeu para seus clientes a tomarem consciência da esse fim foram muito limitados. As intervenções importância da extensão para o desenvolvi- do Banco que apoiam a gestão dos recursos mento da agricultura. Actualmente o Banco x l i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A apoia várias abordagens de parcerias (públicas- Principais Conclusões sobre os Factores privadas, motivadas pela procura, organizações Relacionados com o Desempenho do não governamentais, etc.), como no Uganda. Banco e dos Países Mas é preciso avaliar sistematicamente o custo, a eficácia e a sustentabilidade dessas abordagens. Factores relacionados com o Banco · A estratégia da instituição para o desenvolvi- A reforma dos preços e da comercialização. Embora mento do sector da agricultura tem feito parte os resultados tenham variado de um país para o da sua estratégia rural, e com o tempo a im- outro, o esforço do Banco contribuir para portância da agricultura na estratégia rural do melhorar a conjuntura macroeconómica e a Banco diminuiu. Como resultado disso e con- disciplina fiscal em vários países. Contudo, essas tribuindo para isso, as competências técnicas mudanças não foram suficientes para estimular para apoiar o desenvolvimento da agricultura os investimentos do sector privado em diversas também diminuíram com o tempo. Os dados áreas cruciais das quais o sector público se proporcionados pelo Departamento de Re- retirou. Por conseguinte, a maioria dos países cursos Humanos do Banco Mundial mostram africanos vêm-se perante preços exorbitantes que havia 17 especialistas técnicos destacados dos fertilizantes, uma produção inadequada de ao Departamento de Desenvolvimento da Agri- sementes, transportes deficientes, e um acesso cultura e Rural na África Subsariana em 2006, limitado ao crédito. Se bem que o processo de comparado com 40 em 1997. reformas tenha tido um efeito positivo limitado · O diagnóstico do Banco da situação de de- sobre a produção de alimentos, ele no entanto senvolvimento e das prioridades do sector da aumentou a produção de produtos alimentares agricultura dum país é realizado principal- de exportação não tradicionais, como as mangas mente através do trabalho analítico. Até muito do Mali e as flores do Quénia. Para além dos recentemente, este trabalho era limitado e não países individuais, o Banco exerceu pressão para era facilmente disponível. As conclusões do que a ronda de negociações de Doha fosse trabalho analítico também não informaram es- autenticamente a favor do desenvolvimento, e trategicamente o diálogo de política com os para a eliminação dos subsídios à agricultura nos clientes do Banco nem a concepção dos pro- países da OCDE nos fóruns internacionais, mas gramas para os empréstimos. até à data com pouco êxito. · A política do Banco parece ter tido implicações de longo alcance para a direcção do desen- A insegurança da propriedade das terras. O volvimento da agricultura nos países africa- trabalho analítico contribuiu para uma melhor nos, em especial a sua assessoria de política compreensão dos regimes de direitos de associada à agenda do ajustamento. Contudo, propriedade. Mas o Banco teve dificuldade em os resultados foram inferiores às expectativas prestar um apoio efectivo nesta área devido às devido, entre outras coisas, a um apoio polí- sensibilidades políticas, sociais e culturais. tico débil e a um conhecimento insuficiente da realidade no terreno . O Grupo de Trabalho sobre a Fome do Projecto · Os sistemas de dados do Banco e o apoio à mo- de Desenvolvimento do Milénio concluiu em nitorização e avaliação foram insuficientes para 2005 que o mundo poderia alcançar os Objecti- informar adequadamente os esforços da insti- vos de Desenvolvimento para o Milénio (ODM) tuição para desenvolver a agricultura na África se reduzisse a fome para metade até ao ano de num âmbito amplo. Os sistemas de dados ac- 2015. O desenvolvimento da agricultura da África tuais não permitem que a instituição faça um é crucial para alcançar este objectivo e o Banco seguimento suficientemente detalhado dos Mundial pode fazer uma contribuição importante montantes proporcionados para realizar acti- porque é uma das maiores fontes de financia- vidades específicas, tais como o desenvolvi- mento do desenvolvimento para a agricultura e mento de sementes e o crédito. O pode prestar assessoria política aos governos. monitoramento e a avaliação a nível dos pro- x l i i R E S U M O E X E C UT I VO jectos tem tido um valor limitado para res- como sendo uma prioridade fundamental, o IEG ponder às questões fundamentais sobre os re- recomenda que o Banco: sultados, as repercussões e a eficiência, tais como, quem beneficia, que cultivos recebe- 1. Concentre a sua atenção na consecução de ram apoio e de que maneira, qual tem sido a melhoramentos da produtividade agrícola. eficácia comparativa dos custos e a que podem · Defina objectivos realistas para a ampliação ser atribuídos os ganhos. da irrigação e reconheça a necessidade de aumentar a produtividade da agricultura de Factores relacionados com o país sequeiro mediante o melhoramento da qua- · Embora a conjuntura da governação em vários lidade das terras, assim como a gestão dos países africanos continue a ser débil, o com- recursos hídricos e das secas. prometimento politico para o desenvolvimento · Ajude a conceber mecanismos eficientes, in- da agricultura nos países clientes parece ser cluindo parcerias entre os sectores público mais forte do que no passado. Os governos afri- e privado, para fornecer aos agricultores os canos, muitos dos quais afectavam menos de insumos fundamentais, incluindo fertili- 1 por cento dos seus orçamentos à agricul- zantes, água, crédito e sementes. tura, concordaram em Julho de 2003 na Cimeira · Preste apoio ao desenvolvimento das infra- da União Africana em afectar pelo menos 10 por estruturas de comercialização e de trans- cento das verbas do orçamento nacional a pro- portes. gramas destinados a apoiar o crescimento da 2. Melhore o trabalho que realiza na área da agri- agricultura nos próximos cinco anos. cultura: · Existem capacidades consideráveis para a in- · Aumente a quantidade e a qualidade do tra- vestigação na agricultura, se bem que a sus- balho analítico sobre a agricultura e assegure tentabilidade das actividades que recebem que a assessorial política e os empréstimos apoio continue a ser incerta. Em termos glo- se baseiem nas conclusões desse trabalho. bais, as capacidades do governo em vários pa- · Apoie as análises das despesas públicas para íses continuam a ser débeis, e os ministérios avaliar a disponibilidade de recursos para a da agricultura nacionais ainda são parceiros agricultura e ajudar a definir as prioridades relativamente ineficazes na promoção do de- do Banco. senvolvimento do sector da agricultura. Embora · Aumente novamente as suas competências seja necessário realizar análises adicionais, a técnicas, com base numa avaliação abran- conclusão do estudo de que os projectos des- gente das lacunas actuais. tinados em grande medida à agricultura em pa- 3. Estabeleça referências para medir os progres- íses com condições agrícolas menos favoráveis sos realizados: produziram melhores resultados do que os · Aperfeiçoe os sistemas de dados para melhor projectos semelhantes em países com con- fazer o seguimento das actividades que rece- dições mais favoráveis, sugere que outros fac- bem apoio do Banco. tores, tais como a economia política e as · Reforce o monitoramento e a avaliação para in- capacidades do país, também constituem um formarem sobre as actividades dos projectos desafio para o desenvolvimento da agricultura nas diversas zonas agro-ecológicas e para as ca- na África. tegorias diferentes de cultivos e agricultores, incluindo as mulheres. Recomendações · Desenvolva um sistema para coordenar as ac- Para apoiar efectivamente a execução do Plano tividades agrícolas num país com o acesso ro- de Acção para a África e a sua focalização doviário, a proximidade dos mercados e as apropriada no desenvolvimento da agricultura condições dos solos. x l i i i Cultivating a field in Senegal. Photo by Ray Witlin, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Management Response M anagement agrees with and is already implementing the main mes- sage of this review--that is, that the World Bank should provide more support for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. Management has com- ments on several elements of IEG's analysis and differs with some of IEG's views on the way forward to achieve the shared objectives. The main points are: · Management agrees that to achieve the Mil- approximately one-third of the aggregate growth lennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub- of Africa (excluding South Africa). More than Saharan Africa, agriculture must play a more two-thirds of Africa's poor people remain in rural effective role. The Region, in close collabora- areas and depend largely on farming for their tion with African leaders and development livelihoods. As the IEG review notes, African partners, has already moved the Bank signifi- leaders recognize that more must be done to cantly in this direction, including key organi- stimulate agricultural growth. They have expres- zational changes, noted below. The new sed that view through the Comprehensive African leadership of the Bank and the Region is com- Agricultural Development Program articulated by mitted to do more to accelerate growth of the New Partnership for Africa's Development agriculture and strengthen the sector's con- (NEPAD). The Bank and other partners are assist- tribution to reduction of poverty. ing the NEPAD process and helping countries to · Drawing on the analysis in the draft World De- develop comprehensive programs at the national velopment Report 2008: Agriculture for De- and regional levels. The Africa Region has identi- velopment (World Bank 2007c),1 management fied agricultural productivity as one of eight notes many areas of agreement. Management priority areas. The authors of the World Develop- also highlights some differences with the IEG ment Report [WDR] 2008: Agriculture for review on some of its findings and its recom- Development also argue that agriculture can and mendations. must contribute more to Africa's development, · Management notes its view that the IEG review and they present an agenda for achieving that could have usefully given greater weight to is- objective. In that context, management has sues of country ownership, donor partner- comments on how, relative to IEG, it sees the ships, alignment with country priorities, and wider challenges, and how the Bank has moved harmonization among donors--key elements to confront these challenges. Management also of the Paris Declaration and our current and fu- has comments on several technical areas in the ture assistance programs. IEG review. The following section elaborates on these points Challenges and recent performance and responds to IEG's recommendations. Management agrees that more must be done. However, strategies to accelerate growth must be Management Views on IEG's Analysis built on an understanding of changes already in and Conclusions process. The review presents country-specific data Management agrees that if Africa is to achieve the to argue that agriculture's performance has been MDGs, agriculture must be used more effectively poor in general.2 Drawing comprehensively from for development. Agriculture still contributes the same World Development Indicators, the WDR x l v WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A team shows that sectoral growth increased from direct investment lending and nonlending activi- 2.3 percent in the 1980s to 3.3 percent on average ties. In addition, the evaluation's treatment of the in the 1990s, to 3.8 percent annually in the 2000s-- review period as one undifferentiated time slice im- a rate exceeded only by the Middle East and North pedes recognition of change within that period-- Africa among the Bank's Regions. The growth de- for example, changes in modalities of assistance. rived from a combination of shifts in incentives due New directions have been taken in the last five to policy changes of the 1990s, higher world com- years, and the pace of change is accelerating with modity prices, area expansion, and changes in the two significant developments. First, in 2003 African composition of output. Too little of the growth de- heads of state committed to increase spending on rived from increases in the productivity of land and agriculture (from levels rarely in excess of 4 per- labor. The WDR team shows that rural poverty cent of public budgets to 10 percent). Second, the rates have started to decline in 10 of the 13 coun- Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development tries for which data were analyzed, but that per Program (CAADP) Roundtable process has been capita agricultural growth, although positive on av- established to assist in articulating more robust pro- erage since 2000, still lags behind that of other Re- grams. The nationally owned and regionally sup- gions and is too slow to meet the MDGs. ported roundtable process is under way in Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Constraints to growth. The IEG review attributes Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, lagging growth to constraints associated with agro- Uganda, and Zambia. The programs defined ecological diversity, poor soils, variable rainfall, through the roundtables will be financed jointly by and frequent droughts. Management agrees but national governments, bilateral donors, interna- also notes that both technical and broader eco- tional financial institutions (including the World nomic and institutional factors affect perform- Bank), and private foundations. As the programs ance. Africa's agro-ecology and geography exhibit are articulated and as clients request, the Bank will both positive and negative characteristics; that reflect them in Country Assistance Strategies. With these aspects have functioned as constraints re- other partners, the Bank is fully engaged in this flects institutional shortcomings, chronic under- process both technically and financially, and it is investment, and residual discrimination in policies. committed to increased engagement. The IEG re- The WDR discusses in some detail the contribu- view's analysis and recommendations could be tions that changes in macroeconomic and sec- taken to imply a role for the Bank (notably, in- toral policy made to faster growth over the period creased investment lending through free-standing and draws attention to the lag structure of cause projects addressing specific technical constraints) and effect. Although the policy environment has that does not sufficiently recognize country lead- improved in the past decade and a half, more ership, donor alignment, and harmonization. must be done on the policy and institutional side to facilitate faster growth and improved produc- Organizational changes. To better support a com- tivity in African agriculture. Because of the breadth prehensive and harmonized agenda, the Bank has of the agricultural agenda and synergies between recently undertaken organizational changes. With and among interventions, the design task presents the creation of the Sustainable Development De- formidable challenges that go beyond those pre- partment in fiscal 2007 within the Africa Region, sented in the review, and that will require a sig- the approximately 80 staff members working on nificant analytic investment at both the national and agriculture and rural development have been thematic levels. The Bank is working with partners brought together into one unit under one man- and clients to address these challenges. ager with a mandate to facilitate thematic de- ployment and shared experience across the The role of aid and the Bank's strategy. The authors Region. Field-based sector leaders within the de- of the review note that because of resource con- partment have been given the mandate to facili- straints, the evaluation considered only the Bank's tate coordination across the relevant technical x l v i M A N AG E M E N T R E S P O N S E units (agriculture, water, urban, transport, energy, the extensive interagency review of past lessons environment, post-conflict, and social). Staff mem- of irrigation in Africa and on analysis presented in bers in the agriculture and rural development unit the WDR to conclude that increased investments are engaged in a strategic exercise to clarify best in irrigation are very much needed, but must be practice in program design and normative costing identified with careful consideration of the eco- for five broad thematic areas that constitute build- nomic and ecological context. ing blocks for comprehensive agricultural pro- grams. This work will be completed in fiscal 2008, Agricultural finance and extension. The authors of and will inform the CAADP Roundtables and the the IEG review see microfinance as a promising Bank's Country Assistance Strategies. remedy for financial constraints that smallholders face. Management acknowledges the importance of microfinance for some producers, but is of the Thematic performance view that it cannot provide the mainstay of rural In a number of technical areas, the authors of the finance, particularly for agricultural production. IEG review provide conclusions and recommen- Management sees promise in other mechanisms, dations that are not fully consistent with man- such as interlocking contracts in the value chain, agement's views. Key areas of divergence are noted mobilization of local savings, and such innovative below. products as e-credit cards for purchasing inputs. With regard to agricultural extension, the IEG re- Decentralization. The authors find that decentral- view is critical of the training-and-visit approach, ization offers little increased scope to address and argues that no viable alternative has yet agro-ecological diversity, and that the Bank has emerged. Management is less pessimistic, and done little to support increased productivity in a points out that new, demand-responsive ap- decentralized environment. Management believes proaches have been sufficiently tested on the that decentralization holds significant promise, ground--for example--and offer promise. since local governments play an increasing role, and many extension agents now report to local of- Land rights. Management agrees that land rights are ficials rather than central ministries. The IEG re- important. The authors of the IEG review observe view finds that little support has been accorded to that time taken to complete tenure reforms is efforts to improve productivity, and that food often underestimated. Management is of the view emergencies have instead dominated the Bank's that formal recognition of customary tenure, sim- programs. Management is of the view that small- ple documentation of rights, stronger mecha- holders are adapting to changing conditions, in- nisms for resolution of disputes, and an emphasis cluding planting different varieties and changing on women's land rights can all contribute to in- planting dates, and that more assistance in this area creased productivity. will bring improved results. Fertilizer, seeds, and water. The IEG review argues Main Findings and Recommendations that lack of fertilizer and improved seeds impedes Management finds that IEG's recommendations ad- productivity. That is, of course, true, and more must dress issues that are important for advancing agri- be done. Management points to innovations-- culture in Sub-Saharan Africa but are not readily some supported under Bank programs--that are translatable into operational actions. Manage- being used to address these problems, and also ment's specific responses to IEG's recommenda- notes important constraints in the policy envi- tions are provided in the attached Management ronment and outside the agricultural sector (such Action Record.3 Management's commitment to as transport costs) that reduce the profitability of make support for African agriculture a priority is inputs. On irrigation, the authors of the IEG review already on record, and has recently been empha- cite work concluding that irrigated areas can be ex- sized in assurances from the new vice president panded at acceptable costs. Management draws on of the Africa Region. x l v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A The upcoming IEG review. Management notes that based on the strongest possible analysis; (b) since this evaluation serves as a pilot for the the task should be staffed and funded com- proposed IEG review of Bank-wide assistance mensurately with its technical challenge; and in agriculture scheduled for fiscal 2009, IEG may (c) the harmonized framework in which the wish to consider several points in reference to Bank works should be reflected in the design of that future work: (a) the evaluation should be the assessment. x l v i i i M A N AG E M E N T R E S P O N S E Management Action Record Major IEG recommendation Management response To effectively support the implementation of the Africa Action Agreed with the following qualifications: Plan and its appropriate focus on agricultural development as a Management agrees to take the following actions, which fit key priority, IEG recommends that the Bank: with the spirit of IEG's recommendations but are grounded in the world of country ownership, alignment, and harmonization in Focus attention to achieve improvements in agricultural which the Bank works: productivity: · The Region has developed a draft Business Plan for Irrigation · Establish realistic goals for expansion of irrigation and rec- that identifies priority countries and projects in which irriga- ognize the need to increase productivity of rain-fed agricul- tion can be expanded in the period fiscal 2008­12. The plan ture through improvements in land quality, as well as water will be discussed with partners and, with their agreement, em- and drought management. bedded in future Country Assistance Strategies. · Help design efficient mechanisms, including public-private · Through agricultural technology operations and support to partnerships, to provide farmers with critical inputs including farmer organizations, the Region is supporting matching grants fertilizers, water, credit, and seeds. and various forms of smart subsidies for purchase of im- · Support the development of marketing and transport infra- proved inputs from the private sector. It is using policy-based structure. operations to assist countries with the regulatory framework for input supply. · In fiscal 2007, executive directors approved more than $2.5 billion in new lending to Sub-Saharan Africa for infrastructure, much of which serves rural areas. Management notes that, for example, it is now common practice for African governments seeking support from the Bank in the transport sector to in- volve the agriculture ministry in identifying priority invest- ments. Going forward, explicit attention will continue to be given in fiscal 2008­10 to synergies between infrastructure and commercial agriculture in Bank support. Improve its work on agriculture: Agreed with the following qualifications: · Increase the quantity and quality of analytical work on agri- The priority in Africa is assistance to countries in developing their culture and ensure that policy advice and lending are grounded own comprehensive programs to improve agricultural productivity. in its findings. · The Bank will concentrate on assisting governments to design, · Support public expenditure analyses to assess resource avail- cost, and mobilize the resources needed to implement com- ability for agriculture and to help set Bank priorities. prehensive programs of agricultural development. · Rebuild its technical skills, based on a comprehensive as- · As an analytic priority, by fiscal 2010 the Region will assist sessment of current gaps. clients in at least five countries to assess agricultural public expenditure and identify expenditure gaps relative to growth targets for the sector. This work is innovative and method- ologically complex, and will be pursued jointly with the Agri- culture and Rural Development Department and with other development partners and in the context of the CAADP Round- table process. · The Region regularly reviews skill needs and gaps. At pres- ent the major gap is in knowledge of issues related to sectoral public spending, both operational practices and analysis. (Continues on the following page.) x l i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Management Action Record (continued) Major IEG recommendation Management response Establish benchmarks for measuring progress: Agreed with the following qualifications: · Improve data systems to better track activities supported by · All projects from the Africa Region presented to the Board for the Bank. approval now require baseline data for the results frame- · Strengthen M&E to report on project activities in various work. agro-ecological zones and for different crops and farmer cat- · A set of core indicators at the national level has been devel- egories, including women. oped to monitor progress under the Africa Action Plan (AAP). · Develop a system to coordinate agricultural activities in a For agriculture, these indicators include five-year moving av- country with road access, market proximity, and soil conditions. erage data on growth in agricultural GDP, productivity per hectare, and productivity per worker. · The Region is experimenting with M&E systems based on GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tracking of data. This may allow collection of information on agro-ecological zones and links with transport. All of the actions noted above in response to the three IEG rec- ommendations are elements of the agricultural productivity com- ponent of the AAP (one of the flagship operational constituents of the AAP). Management will consider its agreed actions com- plete with their successful implementation over the next three years. Management will report agricultural productivity results to executive directors as part of overall monitoring and report- ing on the AAP. l Réponse de la direction L a direction approuve et applique déjà le principal message de cet exa- men -- à savoir que la Banque mondiale devrait augmenter son appui à l'agriculture en Afrique subsaharienne. La direction a des observations à faire sur plusieurs éléments de l'analyse de l'IEG et ne partage pas certains de ses avis sur la manière d'atteindre les objectifs communs. Les principaux points sont les suivants : · La direction est d'accord sur le fait que, pour La section suivante approfondit ces points et atteindre les objectifs de développement pour répond aux recommandations de l'IEG. le Millénaire (ODM) en Afrique subsaharienne, l'agriculture doit jouer un rôle plus détermi- Les vues de la direction sur l'analyse et nant. La Région, en collaboration étroite avec les conclusions de l'IEG les dirigeants africains et les partenaires du La direction adhère à l'idée que l'agriculture doit développement, a déjà réorienté notablement être davantage mise au service du développement le travail de la Banque dans cette direction, en si l'on veut que l'Afrique atteigne les ODM. Ce procédant notamment à une importante ré- secteur contribue encore pour environ un tiers à la organisation, évoquée plus loin. Les nouveaux croissance globale en Afrique (hors Afrique du responsables de la Banque et de la Région Sud). Plus des deux tiers de la population pauvre sont résolus à accroître leurs efforts pour ac- d'Afrique habite encore en milieu rural et est célérer la croissance de l'agriculture et ren- largement tributaire de l'agriculture pour sa subsis- forcer la contribution de ce secteur à la tance. Comme le note le rapport de l'IEG, les réduction de la pauvreté. dirigeants africains reconnaissent qu'il faut · S'appuyant sur l'analyse du projet de « Rapport accroître les efforts pour stimuler la croissance sur le développement dans le monde 2008 : agricole. Ils ont exprimé cet avis à travers le l'Agriculture au service du développement » Programme intégré pour le développement de (Banque mondiale 2007c)1, la direction note de l'agriculture en Afrique, élaboré dans le cadre du nombreux domaines où les avis se rejoignent. Nouveau partenariat pour le développement de Elle attire également l'attention sur quelques l'Afrique (NEPAD). La Banque et les autres différences avec le rapport de l'IEG au sujet de partenaires accompagnent le processus du NEPAD certaines de ses conclusions et de ses et aident les pays à mettre au point des recommandations. programmes intégrés à l'échelon national et · La direction estime que l'examen de l'IEG aurait régional. La productivité agricole fait partie des pu utilement faire une plus large place aux ques- huit domaines prioritaires identifiés par la Région tions de l'adhésion nationale, des partenariats Afrique. Les auteurs du « Rapport sur le dévelop- entre donateurs, de l'alignement de l'aide sur les pement dans le monde 2008 : l'agriculture au priorités nationales, et de l'harmonisation de service du développement » font également valoir l'aide des donateurs, qui constituent des aspects que l'agriculture peut et doit contribuer davantage essentiels de la Déclaration de Paris et de nos pro- au développement de l'Afrique, et ils présentent grammes d'aide actuels et futurs. un programme d'action pour atteindre cet objectif. l i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Dans ce contexte, la direction a des observations à facteurs économiques et institutionnels plus formuler sur sa vision de la problématique généraux. Les caractéristiques agroécologiques générale, par rapport à l'IEG, et sur la manière et géographiques de l'Afrique présentent autant dont la Banque a réorienté son travail pour y faire d'aspects positifs que négatifs ; qu'ils aient face. Elle a aussi des commentaires à faire sur constitué un frein à la croissance est la plusieurs domaines techniques de l'examen de conséquence de carences institutionnelles, d'un l'IEG. sous-investissement chronique et de politiques comportant encore des éléments discrimina- Difficultés et résultats récents toires. Le RDM examine de façon relativement La direction convient qu'il faut faire davantage. détaillée en quoi les changements introduits Toutefois, élaborer des stratégies pour accélérer dans la politique macroéconomique et la croissance suppose de comprendre les sectorielle ont contribué à accélérer la croissance changements déjà en cours. Le rapport de l'IEG pendant la période considérée, et attire l'atten- présente des données par pays pour démontrer tion sur le décalage temporel qui existe entre que les performances de l'agriculture sont faibles une cause et ses effets. Bien que le cadre de d'une manière générale2. En se fondant sur les l'action publique se soit amélioré depuis une mêmes Indicateurs du développement dans le quinzaine d'années, il faut renforcer les efforts monde, l'équipe du RDM montre que le taux de dans le domaine de la politique publique et des croissance du secteur a progressé, passant de institutions pour augmenter les chances d'accé- 2,3 % dans les années 80, à 3,3 % en moyenne lérer la croissance et d'intensifier la productivité dans les années 90, puis à 3,8 % par an après l'an du secteur agricole en Afrique. L'immense 2000 -- niveau dépassé seulement par le Moyen- éventail des actions à mener dans le domaine de Orient et l'Afrique du Nord parmi les Régions de l'agriculture et les synergies qui existent entre et la Banque. Cette croissance est imputable à une à l'intérieur des interventions rendent la tâche série d'évolutions des dispositifs d'incitation extrêmement difficile à organiser. Les problèmes provoquées par des changements dans la rencontrés dépassent ainsi le cadre de l'examen politique publique au cours des années 90, à la de l'IEG et nécessiteront des travaux d'analyse hausse des cours des produits de base, à importants sur les pays et sur des thèmes l'augmentation des surfaces cultivées, et à des particuliers. La Banque travaille à résoudre ces changements dans la composition de la produc- problèmes avec ses partenaires et ses clients. tion. Une part trop faible de la croissance a été générée par des augmentations de la productiv- Le rôle de l'aide et la stratégie de la Banque. Les ité des sols et du travail. L'équipe du RDM auteurs du rapport notent que pour des raisons indique que les taux de pauvreté rurale ont de moyens, l'évaluation n'a porté que sur les commencé à décliner dans 10 des 13 pays pour prêts directs à l'investissement et les activités lesquels des données ont été analysées, mais que hors prêt. En outre, le fait que la période la croissance agricole par habitant, bien que examinée soit traitée en un seul bloc ne permet positive en moyenne depuis 2000, reste loin pas de tenir compte des changements intervenus derrière celle des autres Régions et est trop lente au cours des années considérées -- par exemple pour permettre d'atteindre les ODM. dans les modalités de fourniture de l'aide. De nouvelles orientations ont été prises depuis cinq Obstacles à la croissance. Dans son examen, l'IEG ans, et le rythme du changement s'accélère avec attribue le retard de croissance à des obstacles deux faits marquants. Tout d'abord, en 2003, les liés à la diversité agroécologiques, à la pauvreté chefs d'État africains se sont engagés à augmen- des sols, à la variabilité des précipitations et à la ter les montants alloués à l'agriculture (qui fréquence élevée des sécheresses. La direction passeront à 10 % des budgets publics alors qu'ils en convient, mais fait remarquer également que dépassaient rarement les 4 %). Ensuite, le proces- les performances de l'agriculture sont affectées sus de consultation du Programme intégré pour par des paramètres techniques et par des le développement de l'agriculture en Afrique l i i R É P O N S E D E L A D I R E C T I O N (CAADP) a été mis en place pour aider à la d'élaboration des programmes et de principes formulation de programmes plus solides. Le d'établissement des coûts pour les cinq grands processus de consultation, pris en charge par les domaines thématiques sur lesquels est construit pays avec un soutien régional, est engagé au tout programme agricole intégré. Ce travail sera Bénin, au Burkina Faso, au Burundi, en Éthiopie, achevé durant l'exercice 08 et servira de guide au Ghana, au Kenya, au Malawi, au Mali, au Niger, lors des tables rondes du CAADP et dans les au Nigéria, en Ouganda, au Rwanda, au Sénégal, stratégies d'aide-pays de la Banque. et en Zambie. Les programmes définis lors de ces tables rondes seront financés conjointement par Résultats par domaines les gouvernements nationaux, des donateurs Dans un certain nombre de domaines bilatéraux, des institutions financières internatio- techniques, les auteurs du rapport de l'IEG nales (notamment la Banque mondiale) et des présentent des conclusions et des recommanda- fondations privées. En fonction de la formulation tions qui ne sont pas totalement en phase avec des programmes et de la demande des clients, la les opinions de la direction. Les principaux Banque en tiendra compte dans ses stratégies points de divergence sont exposés ci-dessous : d'aide-pays. Avec d'autres partenaires, la Banque s'est totalement impliquée dans ce processus, Décentralisation. Les auteurs concluent que la tant sur le plan technique que financier, et est décentralisation ne permet pas d'améliorer déterminée à accroître ses engagements. sensiblement la prise en compte de la diversité L'analyse et les recommandations formulées par agroécologique, et que la Banque n'a pas fait l'IEG dans son rapport pourraient laisser grand-chose pour favoriser l'augmentation de la entendre que la Banque aurait un rôle à jouer productivité dans un cadre décentralisé. La (notamment, en augmentant les prêts à l'investis- direction estime que la décentralisation offre des sement dans le cadre de projets autonomes ciblés perspectives très prometteuses dans la mesure sur des problèmes techniques particuliers) qui où les autorités locales jouent un rôle grandis- ne laisserait pas une place suffisante à l'adhésion sant et où un grand nombre d'agents de vulgari- des pays et à l'alignement et l'harmonisation de sation ne rendent maintenant plus compte aux l'aide des donateurs. ministères centraux mais aux fonctionnaires locaux. Le rapport de l'IEG pointe le peu d'appui Réorganisation. Pour mieux appuyer un accordé aux efforts d'amélioration de la produc- programme d'action intégré et harmonisé, la tivité et indique que les programmes de la Banque a lancé récemment une réorganisation Banque ont privilégié l'aide alimentaire de ses services. Avec la création du Département d'urgence. La direction est d'avis que les petits du développement durable durant l'exercice 07 exploitants s'adaptent aujourd'hui au change- au sein de la Région Afrique, les quelque ment, par exemple en plantant des variétés 80 collaborateurs qui travaillaient à l'agriculture différentes et en modifiant les dates de semis, et et au développement rural ont été rassemblés en qu'un surcroît d'assistance dans ce domaine une seule unité dirigée par une seule personne permettra d'obtenir de meilleurs résultats. afin de faciliter l'affectation des compétences et les échanges d'expérience au niveau de la Engrais, semences et eau. Dans son rapport, l'IEG Région. Au sein du département, des respon- indique que le manque d'engrais et de semences sables de secteur basés sur le terrain ont été améliorées est un frein à la productivité. C'est chargés d'organiser la coordination entre les bien entendu exact, et il faut être plus actif dans équipes techniques concernées (agriculture, ce domaine. La direction signale les solutions eau, urbanisme, transport, énergie, environne- originales qui ont été trouvées pour y remédier ment, post-conflit et social). Les membres de -- dont certaines sont financées par des l'unité « agriculture et développement rural » ont programmes de la Banque -- et note également entamé un exercice stratégique dans l'optique les obstacles majeurs qui existent au niveau du d'identifier les pratiques optimales en matière cadre de la politique publique et en dehors du l i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A secteur agricole (par exemple les coûts de mener à bien les réformes foncières. La direction transport), qui diminuent les gains générés par considère qu'un certain nombre de mesures les intrants. Au sujet de l'irrigation, les auteurs du peuvent toutes contribuer à accroître la produc- rapport de l'IEG citent des travaux concluant à la tivité, notamment la reconnaissance officielle de possibilité d'étendre les périmètres irrigués pour l'occupation coutumière, la simplification des un coût acceptable. La direction, se fondant sur la procédures d'immatriculation sur le plan des vaste analyse inter-agence conduite sur l'expé- documents à fournir, le renforcement des rience passée de l'irrigation en Afrique, ainsi que mécanismes de règlement des différends et une sur l'analyse présentée dans le RDM, conclut qu'il plus grande attention donnée aux droits fonciers est absolument nécessaire d'accroître les investis- des femmes. sements dans l'irrigation, mais de façon ciblée, après un examen approfondi du contexte Principales conclusions et économique et écologique. recommandations La direction estime que les recommandations de Finance agricole et vulgarisation. Les auteurs du l'IEG portent sur des questions importantes rapport de l'IEG voient dans la microfinance une pour faire avancer l'agriculture en Afrique solution prometteuse aux handicaps financiers subsaharienne mais qui ne sont pas directement des petits exploitants. La direction reconnaît traduisibles en mesures opérationnelles. Les l'importance de la microfinance pour certains réponses précises de la direction aux recomman- producteurs, mais estime qu'elle ne peut pas dations de l'IEG sont présentées dans le Relevé constituer l'élément essentiel de la finance des interventions de la direction ci-joint3. La rurale, en particulier pour la production agricole. volonté de la direction de faire de l'aide à l'agri- La direction met beaucoup d'espoir dans culture africaine l'une de ses priorités est déjà d'autres mécanismes, comme les contrats établie et a été soulignée récemment dans les réciproques dans la chaîne de valeur, la mobilisa- déclarations du nouveau Vice-président de la tion de l'épargne locale, et des produits Région Afrique. novateurs tels que les porte-monnaie électro- niques pour l'achat des intrants. En ce qui Prochain examen de l'IEG. La direction indique concerne la vulgarisation, le rapport de l'IEG est que, puisque cette évaluation doit servir de critique vis-à-vis de la méthode « formation et pilote à l'analyse de l'aide de la Banque mondiale visites », et estime qu'aucune autre solution à l'agriculture en général que l'IEG prévoit viable ne s'est pour l'instant dégagée. La d'effectuer durant l'exercice 09, l'IEG pourrait direction est moins pessimiste et indique que de utilement examiner plusieurs points dans la nouvelles approches, fondées sur la demande, perspective de ce travail futur : a) l'évaluation ont été suffisamment testées sur le terrain -- par devrait être fondée sur l'analyse la plus approfon- exemple -- et sont prometteuses. die possible ; b) les moyens humains et financiers mis en oeuvre devraient être à la Droits fonciers. La direction est d'accord sur le fait mesure du défi technique que représente la que les droits fonciers sont importants. Les tâche à accomplir ; et c) la structure de l'évalua- auteurs du rapport de l'IEG relèvent que l'on tion devrait tenir compte du cadre harmonisé sous-estime souvent le temps nécessaire pour dans lequel travaille la Banque. l i v R É P O N S E D E L A D I R E C T I O N Relevé des interventions de la direction Recommandation de l'IEG Réponse de la direction Pour appuyer utilement la mise en oeuvre du Plan d'action pour Acceptée avec les précisions suivantes : l'Afrique et l'objectif prioritaire de développement agricole qu'il La direction accepte de prendre les mesures suivantes, qui sont s'est judicieusement fixé, l'IEG formule à l'intention de la Banque conformes à l'esprit des recommandations de l'IEG mais sont fon- mondiale les recommandations suivantes : dées sur les principes de l'adhésion nationale et de l'alignement et de l'harmonisation de l'aide sur lesquels repose le travail de Privilégier l'amélioration de la productivité agricole : la Banque. · Établir des objectifs réalistes en matière d'expansion de l'ir- · La Région a élaboré un projet de Plan stratégique pour l'ir- rigation et prendre conscience de la nécessité d'augmenter rigation qui identifie les pays et les projets prioritaires dans la productivité de l'agriculture non irriguée par l'amélioration lesquels l'irrigation peut être étendue pendant la période com- de la qualité des terres et par la gestion de l'eau et des sé- prise entre les exercices 08 et 12. Le plan sera examiné cheresses. avec les partenaires et, avec leur accord, intégré dans les fu- · Participer à l'élaboration de mécanismes efficients, dont tures stratégies d'aide-pays. des partenariats public-privé, pour fournir aux agriculteurs les · Dans le cadre de ses activités d'assistance technique à intrants indispensables, notamment des engrais, de l'eau, des l'agriculture et d'aide aux associations d'agriculteurs, la Ré- crédits et des semences. gion finance des subventions de contrepartie et diverses · Appuyer le développement des infrastructures de commer- formes de subventions intelligentes à l'achat d'intrants de cialisation et de transport. meilleure qualité auprès du secteur privé. Elle utilise les opérations à l'appui de réformes pour aider les pays à orga- niser un cadre réglementaire adapté pour les achats d'intrants. · Durant l'exercice 07, les Administrateurs ont approuvé plus de 2,5 milliards de nouveaux prêts à l'Afrique subsaharienne pour des infrastructures dont une bonne part desservent des zones rurales. La direction note que, par exemple, les gou- vernements africains font maintenant fréquemment appel à la Banque dans le secteur des transports pour engager le mi- nistère de l'Agriculture à identifier les investissements prio- ritaires. À l'avenir, une attention particulière continuera d'être accordée aux synergies entre les infrastructures et l'agriculture commerciale dans l'aide apportée par la Banque sur les exercices 08 à 10. Améliorer ses études dans le domaine de l'agriculture : Acceptée avec les précisions suivantes : · Augmenter la quantité et la qualité des études analytiques La priorité en Afrique est d'aider les pays à élaborer leurs propres portant sur l'agriculture et veiller à ce que ses opérations de programmes intégrés pour améliorer la productivité agricole. conseil et de prêt se fondent sur leurs conclusions. · La Banque s'emploiera avant tout à aider les autorités na- · Appuyer les analyses des dépenses publiques de manière à tionales à élaborer, chiffrer et mobiliser les ressources né- évaluer les ressources disponibles pour l'agriculture et à cessaires à la mise en oeuvre de programmes intégrés de définir ses propres priorités. développement agricole. · Restaurer ses compétences techniques à partir d'une éva- · Dans le domaine des études, d'ici l'exercice 10, la priorité luation complète de ses lacunes actuelles. de la Région sera d'aider les clients d'au moins cinq pays à évaluer les dépenses publiques dans l'agriculture et à repé- rer les lignes budgétaires insuffisantes par rapport aux ob- l v WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Relevé des interventions de la direction (suite) Recommandation de l'IEG Réponse de la direction jectifs de croissance définis pour le secteur. Il s'agit d'un tra- vail nouveau et complexe sur le plan méthodologique, qui sera mené en collaboration avec le Département de l'agriculture et du développement rural et d'autres partenaires du déve- loppement, et dans le contexte du processus de consultation du CAADP. · La Région fait régulièrement le point sur les besoins et les déficits de compétences. Actuellement, les principales lacunes concernent la connaissance des questions liées aux dé- penses publiques sectorielles, tant du point de vue des pra- tiques opérationnelles que de l'analyse. Établir des indicateurs afin de mesurer les progrès : Acceptée avec les précisions suivantes : · Perfectionner les systèmes de données pour mieux suivre les · Tous les projets de la Région Afrique présentés au Conseil opérations que la Banque finance. pour approbation doivent maintenant comporter des don- · Consolider le dispositif de suivi et d'évaluation pour rendre nées de référence pour le cadre de résultats. compte des activités conduites dans le cadre des projets dans · Un ensemble d'indicateurs clés au niveau national a été éla- diverses zones agroécologiques, et pour différentes cultures boré pour suivre les progrès accomplis dans le cadre du Plan et catégories d'agriculteurs, y compris les femmes. d'action pour l'Afrique (PAA). Pour l'agriculture, ces indica- · Mettre sur pied un système permettant de coordonner les opé- teurs comprennent des données en moyenne glissante sur rations agricoles à l'échelle des pays en fonction de leur ré- cinq ans sur la croissance du PIB agricole, la productivité à seau routier, de la proximité des marchés et des conditions l'hectare et la productivité par employé. édaphiques. · La Région expérimente des systèmes de suivi et d'évaluation fondés sur le suivi de données de SIG (système d'informa- tion géographique), qui pourraient permettre de collecter des informations sur les zones agroécologiques et d'établir des liens avec le secteur des transports. Toutes les interventions indiquées ci-dessus en réponse aux trois recommandations de l'IEG s'inscrivent dans la composante de productivité agricole du PAA (l'une des mesures opération- nelles phares du PAA). La direction considérera que les actions qu'elle a convenu de poursuivre ont été menées à leur terme si elles sont mises en oeuvre avec succès au cours des trois pro- chaines années. La direction informera les Administrateurs des résultats obtenus en matière de productivité agricole dans le cadre du dispositif global de suivi et de communication de données du PAA. l v i A Resposta da Administração A Administração concorda e já está a por em prática a principal mensagem da presente análise, isto é, que o Banco Mundial deveria prestar mais apoio à agricultura na África Subsariana. A Administração tem alguns comentários a fazer sobre vários elemen- tos da análise do Grupo Independente de Avaliação (GIA), e difere de algumas das opi- niões do GIA quanto à maneira de proceder para alcançar os objectivos comuns. Os principais pontos são: · A Administração concorda que, para alcançar A parte seguinte contém uma descrição mais os Objectivos do Milénio para o Desenvolvi- pormenorizada destes pontos e a resposta às mento (OMD) na África Subsariana, a agricul- recomendações do GIA. tura tem que desempenhar um papel mais efectivo. A Região, em colaboração estreita A Opinião da Administração sobre a com os dirigentes africanos e os parceiros que Análise e as Conclusões do GIA se dedicam ao desenvolvimento, já dirigiu o A Administração concorda com o facto que, para Banco de uma maneira significativa nessa di- que a África alcance os OMD, a agricultura tem recção, o que inclui as importantes mudanças que ser usada mais efectivamente em prol do organizativas abaixo indicadas. Os novos diri- desenvolvimento. A agricultura continua a gentes do Banco e a Região comprometeram- contribuir com aproximadamente um terço para se a fazer mais no sentido de acelerar o o crescimento agregado da África (com a crescimento da agricultura e de reforçar a con- exclusão da África do Sul). Mais de dois terços tribuição do sector para reduzir a pobreza. das pessoas pobres na África continuam a viver · Tendo por base a análise contida no Relatório nas zonas rurais e dependem em grande medida sobre o Desenvolvimento Mundial de 2008: A da agricultura para a sua sobrevivência. Como Agricultura para o Desenvolvimento (Banco indicado na análise do GIA, os dirigentes africa- Mundial 2007c),1 a Administração verifica que há nos reconhecem que é preciso fazer mais para acordo em muitas áreas. A Administração sa- estimular o crescimento agrícola. Eles expressa- lienta também algumas divergências em relação ram esta opinião através do Programa a algumas das conclusões e recomendações da Abrangente da África para da Agricultura, articu- análise do GIA. lado pela Nova Parceria para o Desenvolvimento · A Administração expressa a opinião de que a da África (NPDA-NEPAD). O Banco e os outros análise do GIA poderia ter dado mais peso às parceiros estão a auxiliar o processo da NPDA e a questões relacionadas com o envolvimento ajudar os países a elaborarem programas dos países, às parcerias com os doadores, ao abrangentes a nível nacional e regional. A Região alinhamento às prioridades dos países, e à har- da África identificou a produtividade agrícola monização entre os doadores, o que teria sido como sendo uma de oito áreas prioritárias. Os útil visto estes serem elementos fundamen- autores do Relatório Sobre o Desenvolvimento tais da Declaração de Paris e dos nossos pro- Mundial [RDM] de 2008: A Agricultura para o gramas de assistência actuais e futuros. Desenvolvimento também apresentam o l v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A argumento que a agricultura pode e deve contri- secas frequentes. A Administração concorda, mas buir mais para o desenvolvimento da África, e também assinala que factores tanto técnicos como propõem uma agenda para alcançar este económicos e institucionais mais amplos afectam objectivo. Neste contexto, a Administração tem o desempenho. A agro-ecologia e a geografia da comentários a fazer em relação ao GIA, à maneira África exibem características tanto positivas como como visualiza os desafios mais amplos, e à negativas; o facto que estes factores funcionaram maneira como o Banco procedeu para enfrentar como constrangimentos reflecte as limitações estes desafios. A Administração também tem institucionais, o sub-investimento crónico, e a comentários a fazer sobre vários aspectos discriminação das medidas de políticas adoptadas. técnicos da análise do GIA. O RDM expõe detalhadamente as contribuições que as mudanças da política macroeconómica e Os Desafios e o Desempenho Recente sectorial fizeram para que o crescimento fosse A Administração concorda que é necessário fazer mais rápido durante o período em questão, e mais. Contudo, as estratégias para acelerar o dirige a atenção para a estrutura do atraso, de crescimento devem assentar na compreensão causa e efeito. Embora a conjuntura de política das mudanças já estão em curso. A análise tenha melhorado na última década e meia, é apresenta dados específicos aos países para preciso fazer mais na vertente política e institucio- argumentar que o desempenho da agricultura nal para facilitar um crescimento mais rápido e tem sido, de uma maneira geral, deficiente.2 melhorar a produtividade da agricultura da África. Baseando-se amplamente nos mesmos Indicado- Devido à vastidão da agenda da agricultura e às res do Desenvolvimento Mundial, a equipa sinergias existentes entre as intervenções, o encarregada do RDM mostra que o crescimento trabalho de concepção apresenta desafios sectorial aumentou de 2,3 por cento na década enormes que vão para além dos que foram de 1980 para uma média de 3,3 por cento na apresentados na análise, e que requerem um década de 1990, e para 3,8 por cento anuais na importante investimento analítico em termos de década de 2000 -- uma taxa que só foi ultrapas- análise a nível nacional e temático. O Banco está a sada pelo Médio Oriente e a África do Norte trabalhar com os seus parceiros e clientes para entre todas as Regiões do Banco. O crescimento abordar estes desafios. foi devido a uma combinação de mudanças nos incentivos derivadas das alterações de política da A Função das Ajudas e a Estratégia do Banco. Os década de 1990, à subida dos preços mundiais autores da análise assinalam que, devido aos dos produtos primários, à expansão das áreas constrangimentos em matéria de recursos, a (de cultivo), e às alterações na composição da avaliação apenas examinou os empréstimos para produção. Muito pouco do crescimento derivou investimento directo e as actividades não relacio- de um aumento da produtividade das terras e da nadas com os empréstimos do Banco. Adicional- mão-de-obra. A equipa encarregada do RDM mente, o tratamento dado na avaliação ao mostra que as taxas de pobreza nas zonas rurais período em análise, como sendo uma fatia de começaram a diminuir em 10 dos 13 países cujos tempo indiferenciada, impede o reconheci- dados foram analisados, mas que o crescimento mento das mudanças ocorridas durante esse agrícola per capita, embora sendo em média período -- por exemplo, a alteração das modali- positivo desde o ano 2000, ainda é menor do que dades de assistência. Foram seguidas novas o das outras Regiões e é demasiado lento para direcções nos últimos cinco anos, e o ritmo das que os OMD sejam alcançados. mudanças está a acelerar com duas ocorrências significativas. Primeiro, em 2003 os chefes de Os Constrangimentos ao Crescimento. A análise do estado africanos comprometeram-se a aumentar GIA atribui o atraso no crescimento a constrangi- os gastos com a agricultura (de níveis que mentos associados à diversidade agro-ecológica, à raramente ultrapassaram os 4 por cento do pobreza dos solos, à pluviosidade variável, e às orçamento do estado, para 10 por cento). l v i i i A R E S P O S TA DA A D M I N I S T R A Ç Ã O Segundo, foi criado o processo de Mesas ambiente, situações posteriores a conflitos, e área Redondas do Programa Abrangente para o social). Os funcionários da unidade de agricultura Desenvolvimento da Agricultura na África e desenvolvimento estão a realizar um exercício (PADAA - CAADP) para ajudar a articular progra- estratégico para esclarecer as melhores práticas mas mais robustos. O processo de mesas na concepção dos programas e as normas para a redondas do qual os países assumiram a proprie- determinação dos custos em cinco amplas áreas dade e que recebe apoio regional, já está a temáticas que constituem elementos da funcionar no Benin, no Burkina Faso, no construção de os programas abrangentes para a Burundi, na Etiópia, no Gana, no Quénia, no agricultura. Este trabalho estará terminado no Malawi, no Mali, no Niger, na Nigéria, no Ruanda, ano fiscal de 2008 e vai informar as Mesas no Senegal, no Uganda, e na Zâmbia. Os progra- Redondas do PADAA ­ CAAD e as Estratégias para mas definidos através das mesas redondas serão a Assistência aos Países do Banco Mundial. financiados conjuntamente pelos governos dos países, por doadores bilaterais, por instituições Desempenho Temático financeiras internacionais (incluindo o Banco Em algumas áreas técnicas, os autores da análise Mundial), e por fundações privadas. À medida do GIA apresentam conclusões e recomen- que os programas forem articulados os progra- dações que não são totalmente compatíveis com mas e conforme os clientes solicitarem, o Banco as opiniões da Administração. Os principais irá reflecti-los nas Estratégias para a Assistência pontos de divergência estão indicados abaixo. aos Países. Com os outros parceiros, o Banco participa plenamente neste processo, tanto do Descentralização. Os autores acham que a ponto de vista técnico como financeiro, e descentralização poucas possibilidades oferece compromete-se a ter uma maior participação de abordar a diversidade agro-ecológica, e que o Poderia considerar-se que a análise e as recomen- Banco pouco faz para apoiar uma maior produti- dações do GIA atribuem uma função ao Banco vidade numa conjuntura de descentralização. A (nomeadamente, um aumento dos empréstimos Administração acredita que a descentralização é para investimentos através de projectos indepen- bastante promissora visto que os governos locais dentes que abordem constrangimentos técnicos desempenham um papel cada vez maior, e específicos) que não reconhece suficientemente muitos agentes dos serviços de extensão se os dirigentes dos países, o alinhamento dos reportam actualmente às autoridades locais e doadores e a harmonização. não aos ministérios centrais. A análise do GIA verifica que pouco apoio foi prestado aos Alterações Organizativas. Para melhor apoiar uma esforços tendentes a melhorar a produtividade, e agenda abrangente e harmonizada, o Banco que em vez disso as situações de emergência empreendeu recentemente algumas mudanças a alimentar dominaram os programas do Banco. A nível da organização. Com a criação do Departa- Administração é de opinião que os pequenos mento de Desenvolvimento Sustentável no agricultores estão a adaptar-se às condições exercício financeiro de 2007 na Região da África, cambiantes, o que inclui a plantação de varieda- os aproximadamente 80 funcionários que trabal- des diferentes e a mudança das datas de ham na agricultura e no desenvolvimento rural plantação, e que uma assistência acrescida nesta foram reunidos numa única unidade, cujo área dará resultados melhores. director tem o mandato de facilitar o desdobra- mento temático e as experiências compartilhadas Fertilizantes, Sementes e Água. A análise do GIA através da Região. Os chefes do sector dentro do argumenta que a falta de fertilizantes e de departamento que trabalham no terreno recebe- sementes melhoradas impede a produtividade. ram o mandato de facilitar a coordenação entre Isto é evidentemente verdade e é necessário fazer as unidades técnicas pertinentes (agricultura, mais a esse respeito. A Administração aponta para água, zonas urbanas, transportes, energia, as inovações -- algumas com o apoio prestado l i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A no âmbito dos programas do Banco -- que estão Direitos de Propriedade das Terras. A Administração a ser utilizadas para abordar esses problemas, e concorda que os direitos de propriedade das também assinala os constrangimentos importan- terras são importantes. Os autores da análise do tes na conjuntura de política e fora do sector da GIA observam que o tempo que leva a concluir as agricultura (como os custos dos transportes) que reformas da propriedade das terras é muitas reduzem a lucratividade dos insumos. Quanto à vezes subestimado. A Administração é de opinião irrigação, os autores da análise do GIA citam o que o reconhecimento oficial da propriedade trabalho que levou à conclusão que as áreas usual, a documentação simples dos direitos, irrigadas podem ser ampliadas a um custo aceitá- mecanismos mais fortes para resolver as diferen- vel. A Administração baseia-se na longa análise dos, e o ênfase dado ao direito de as mulheres interinstitucional dos ensinamentos passados serem proprietárias de terras, todos eles podem relativos à irrigação na África e na análise apresen- contribuir para uma produtividade acrescida. tada no RDM que concluía que são absoluta- mente necessários maiores investimentos na Principais Conclusões e Recomendações irrigação, mas que estes devem ser identificados A Administração acha que as recomendações do levando cuidadosamente em consideração o GIA abordam assuntos que são importantes para contexto económico e ecológico. o avanço da agricultura na África Subsariana, mas que não se podem traduzir facilmente em acções O Financiamento da Agricultura e a Extensão. Os operacionais. As respostas específicas da Adminis- autores da análise do GIA vêem o micro- tração às recomendações do GIA encontram-se financiamento como um remédio promissor para em anexo no Registo das Acções da Adminis- os constrangimentos financeiros que os tração.3 O comprometimento da Administração pequenos agricultores enfrentam. A Adminis- de atribuir a prioridade ao apoio à agricultura da tração reconhece a importância do micro África já está patente, tendo sido ressaltado financiamento para alguns produtores, mas é de recentemente nas garantias dadas pelo novo Vice- opinião que ele não pode ser o principal financia- Presidente da Região da África. mento para as zonas rurais, especialmente para a produção agrícola. A Administração considera A Próxima Análise do GIA. A Administração faz que outros mecanismos são promissores, tais notar que, visto que esta avaliação serve de como ligar os contratos à cadeia de valor, a mobili- orientação para a análise proposta do GIA da zação da poupança local, e produtos inovadores assistência prestada por todo o Banco à agricul- como os cartões de crédito electrónico para a tura, programada para o ano fiscal de 2009, talvez compra dos insumos. No que respeita a extensão o GIA queira ponderar vários aspectos relativos a agrícola, a análise do GIA critica a abordagem esse trabalho futuro: (a) a avaliação deveria seguida de formação e visitas, e argumenta que basear-se na análise mais robusta possível; (b) a ainda não surgiu nenhuma alternativa viável. A dotação de pessoal e o financiamento deste Administração é menos pessimista e indica que as trabalho deveria ser comensurado com aos novas abordagens que reagem à procura já foram desafios técnicos enfrentados; e (c) a estrutura suficientemente testadas no terreno, por harmonizada na qual o Banco trabalha deveria exemplo, e são promissoras. estar reflectida na concepção da avaliação. l x A R E S P O S TA DA A D M I N I S T R A Ç Ã O Registo das Acções Empreendidas pela Administração Recomendação do GIA Resposta da Administração Para apoiar efectivamente a execução do Plano de Acção para Concordou com as qualificações seguintes: a África e a sua focalização apropriada no desenvolvimento da A Administração concorda em empreender as seguintes acções agricultura como prioridade principal, o GIA recomenda que o que se inserem no espírito das recomendações do GIA, mas se Banco: baseiam no mundo de propriedade, alinhamento e harmonização dos países nos quais o Banco trabalha. Concentre a sua atenção na consecução do melhora- · A Região desenvolveu um Plano Empresarial preliminar para mento da produtividade agrícola: a Irrigação, o qual identifica os países e projectos prioritá- · Defina metas realistas para a expansão da irrigação e re- rios nos quais se pode expandir a irrigação no período fiscal conheça a necessidade de aumentar a produtividade da agri- de 2008 a 2012. O plano será debatido com os parceiros e, cultura de sequeiro mediante o melhoramento da qualidade com o assentimento deles, será embutido nas Estratégias para das terras, assim como a gestão dos recursos hídricos e das a Assistência aos Países futuras. secas. · Através das operações de tecnologia agrícola e o apoio às · Ajude a conceber mecanismos eficientes, incluindo parcerias organizações de agricultores, a Região está a prestar apoio entre os sectores público e privado, para fornecer aos agri- a doações de contrapartida e várias formas de subsídios "in- cultores os insumos essenciais, inclusivamente fertilizan- teligentes" para a compra de insumos melhorados ao sec- tes, água, crédito e sementes. tor privado. Está a utilizar as operações baseadas em política · Apoie o desenvolvimento das infra-estruturas de comercia- para auxiliar os países no que respeita a estrutura regula- lização e de transportes. mentar para a oferta de insumos. · No ano fiscal de 2007, os Administradores do Banco apro- varam mais de USD 2,5 biliões de novos empréstimos à África Subsariana para infra-estruturas, muitas das quais servem as zonas rurais. A Administração assinala, por exem- plo, que agora é prática comum para os governos africanos procurar obter apoio do Banco para o sector dos transportes para que o Ministério da Agricultura participe na identificação dos investimentos prioritários. Avançando um pouco, conti- nuará a ser prestada uma atenção explícita nos anos fiscais de 2008 a 2010 às sinergias entre as infra-estruturas e a agri- cultura comercial no apoio prestado pelo Banco presta. Realize um trabalho melhor na área da agricultura: Concordou com as seguintes qualificações: · Aumente a quantidade e a qualidade do trabalho analítico re- A prioridade na África é a assistência aos países para que eles lativo à agricultura, e assegure que o assessoramento de po- desenvolvam os seus próprios programas abrangentes destina- lítica e os empréstimos que concede estão ancorados nas suas dos a melhorar a produtividade agrícola. conclusões. · O Banco vai concentrar-se em prestar assistência aos governos · Apoie as análises das despesas públicas para avaliar os re- destinada a conceber, determinar os custos e mobilizar os re- cursos disponíveis à agricultura, e ajudar a estabelecer as prio- cursos necessários para executar programas abrangentes ridades do Banco. de desenvolvimento da agricultura. · Reconstrua as suas competências técnicas, com base numa · Como prioridade analítica, até ao ano fiscal de 2010 a Re- avaliação abrangente das lacunas actuais. gião vai auxiliar clientes em pelo menos cinco países a ava- liar as despesas públicas com a agricultura e a identificar a brecha nas despesas em relação às metas de crescimento l x i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Registo das Acções Empreendidas pela Administração Recomendação do GIA Resposta da Administração para o sector, Este trabalho é inovador e complexo, do ponto de vista metodológico, e será realizado conjuntamente com o Departamento da Agricultura e do Desenvolvimento Rural e com outros parceiros no desenvolvimento, e no contexto do processo de Mesas Redondas do PADAA ­ CAADP. · A Região examina regularmente as necessidades em maté- ria de competências e as lacunas existentes. No momento actual, a maior lacuna é no conhecimento dos assuntos re- lacionados com as despesas públicas sectoriais, tanto as prá- ticas operacionais como as análises. Estabeleça referências para medir os progressos: Concordou com as seguintes qualificações: · Melhore os sistemas de dados para fazer melhor o seguimento · Todos os projectos da Região da África que são apresenta- das actividades que recebem apoio do Banco. dos à aprovação do Conselho de Administração têm agora · Reforce os serviços de Monitoramento e Avaliação (M&A) que conter os dados básicos para a estrutura de resultados. para que informem sobre as actividades dos projectos nas · Foi desenvolvido um conjunto de indicadores básicos a nível diversas zonas agro-ecológicas e para diferentes categorias nacional para monitorar os progressos realizados no âmbito de cultivos e agricultores, incluindo as mulheres. do Plano de Acção para a África (PAA). No que respeita a agri- · Desenvolva um sistema para coordenar as actividades agrí- cultura, estes indicadores incluem dados médios para cinco colas num país com o acesso rodoviário, a proximidade dos anos sobre o crescimento do PIB na agricultura, a produtivi- mercados e as condições dos solos. dade por hectare e a produtividade por trabalhador. · A Região está a experimentar os sistemas de Monitora- mento e Avaliação (M&A) baseados nos Sistemas de Infor- mação Geográfica (SIG) que fazem o seguimento dos dados. Isto pode permitir recolher informações sobre as zonas agro- ecológicas e as suas ligações aos transportes. Todas as acções acima indicadas, em resposta às três reco- mendações do GIA, são elementos da componente de produti- vidade agrícola do PAA (um dos constituintes operacionais capitais do PAA). A Administração vai considerar as acções que concordou empreender, juntamente com a boa execução das mesmas durante os próximos três anos. A Administração infor- mará os Administradores do Banco sobre os resultados da pro- dutividade agrícola como parte das informações e do monitoramento global sobre o PAA. l x i i Chairperson's Summary: Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) O n October 3, 2007, the Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) considered the report World Bank Assistance to Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: An IEG Review, prepared by the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), together with the Draft Management Response. Background Saharan Africa over the period of fiscal CODE considered the IEG evaluation World 1991­2006. The study notes that the agricultural Bank Support for Capacity Building in Africa sector has been neglected both by governments on March 23, 2005. IEG also prepared the special and the donor community, including the World study The World Bank's Assistance to Agricul- Bank. It finds that the Bank's limited and, until tural Water Management (1994­2004), dated recently, declining support has been largely July 7, 2006. piecemeal and "sprinkled" across several critical areas such as research, extension, credit, seeds, The draft World Development Report 2008: roads, and policy reforms, but with little recogni- Agriculture for Development was discussed by tion of the synergy between them. As a result, the Board on June 12, 2007, and is scheduled to though there have been areas of comparatively be launched on October 19. The main message greater success--research, for example--results is that agriculture remains a fundamental instru- on the ground have been limited because of ment for development, and that in Africa this weak linkage with extension and limited availabil- requires addressing constraints to agricultural ity of critical complementary factors such as productivity among smallholders--both those fertilizers, water, and market access. Poor engaged primarily in subsistence and those governance and conflict in several countries, weak already commercially active. institutional capacity, and inadequate govern- ment appreciation of the importance of agricul- IEG Report ture in development, as well as insufficient The IEG review was primarily meant to provide coordination of donor efforts, have been factors timely evaluation insight into the implementa- in the continent's poor agricultural performance. tion of the Bank's renewed focus on agriculture in Africa, especially as embodied in the Africa The study also finds that the Bank's technical Action Plan. It will also help design the framework skills to support agricultural development have for the proposed IEG study of Bank-wide assis- declined over time and that its analytical work tance in agriculture scheduled for fiscal 2009. has been limited, of variable quality, and has not strategically informed lending program design The study assesses the development effective- or policy advice. The study recommends that ness of World Bank assistance in addressing the Bank should: (i) Support improvements in constraints to agricultural development in Sub- agricultural productivity by helping design l x i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A mechanisms that can bring various factors such in economic growth and poverty reduction. as improved seeds, water, credit, and good Members found the discussion complemented extension advice, among others, to farmers in a well the 2008 World Development Report coordinated manner; (ii) Focus on improving its (WDR), Africa Action Plan, and work toward the own capacity to adequately support agricultural MDGs. Members stressed the need to ensure development by increasing the quantity and that the Bank has an integrated agricultural quality of analytical work to help set country-level approach to address systemic issues, identifying priorities and ensure that policy advice and binding constraints within different country lending are grounded in its findings and by contexts, and addressing urgent needs of African rebuilding its technical skills; (iii) Improve its data poor countries with a multisectoral and multifac- systems to better track activities supported by the eted approach. There was consensus on the Bank and strengthen M&E to report accurately need for realistic goals for Bank involvement and on project activities in various countries. appropriate balance between analytical work and policy advice. Directors also supported the Draft Management Response efforts to revitalize the Bank's engagement Management agrees with the broad directions based on its comparative advantages in promot- of IEG's findings and recommendations and is ing agricultural development, but with clear already putting many of them in place. Manage- coordination and cooperation with other ment's ongoing strategic exercise to identify development partners such as the FAO. and dimension comprehensive agricultural programs informs the CAADP Roundtables and Members commented on the need to include assists our clients in designing their own governments' views, define the public sector programs. Management differs from IEG in some role vis-à-vis the private sector, and adapt to the areas of emphasis. The IEG review attributes global aid architecture and advance the imple- lagging growth to constraints associated with mentation of the Paris Declaration, avoiding agro-ecological diversity, poor soils, variable fragmentation of assistance. They also stressed rainfall, and frequent droughts. Management the importance of addressing governance agrees, but also notes that both technical and issues, corruption, and land tenure, while rec- broader economic and institutional factors ognizing the social, economic, and political sen- affect performance. Management finds that sitivity of this issue. In this vein, while agreeing IEG's recommendations address issues that are on the need for a country-owned and demand- important for advancing agriculture in Africa driven approach, members expressed diverse but that several specific recommendations (for opinions about the Bank's role and involvement. example, assure timely access to inputs) require Members also stressed the adaptation to climate further elaboration before they are actionable. change, access to credit for small farmers, and Management is supporting the needed elabora- development of innovative financial instru- tion under the ongoing assistance to countries ments, particularly for risk management, as well in the definition of comprehensive programs. as the importance of addressing the trade Management differs from IEG in placing greater agenda. Other issues that resonated with several weight on country ownership of programs and participants were: financial resources needed, harmonization with other development partners. use of trust funds, and the role of IDA lending and grants; development of technology and Overall Conclusions technology transfer; categorization of countries, Members welcomed the timely discussion of this taking into account specific levels of develop- study and on agriculture in Africa, particularly its ment; institutional capacity and sustainability of anticipated inclusion as a main message of the policy reforms; and cross-sectors such as infra- president for the Annual Meetings, and the structure, transport, water, access to markets, renewed emphasis on agricultural development and the gender dimension. l x i v C H A I R P E R S O N ' S S U M M A RY: C O M M I T T E E O N D E V E L O P M E N T E F F E C T I V E N E S S ( C O D E ) Next Steps Bank's strategic approach There was a request for an update on the Rural Members stressed the importance of a fully Development Sector Strategy, which manage- integrated agricultural approach, while ensuring ment indicated had been last discussed in the cross-sectoral fertilization. They proposed inte- 2005 Sector Strategy Implementation Update. gration of other sectors, particularly those Members looked forward to considering the associated with rural poverty: nutrition, health, proposed IEG study on Bank-wide assistance and education and infrastructure and transport in agriculture in fiscal 2009, although a few linked to market access. There was a need for a speakers requested earlier consideration of this holistic approach to address systemic issues. report. Relatedly, a multifaceted approach was also needed given the complexity of this sector. A The following main issues were raised during number of speakers requested maintaining the meeting: consistency with the WDR, particularly its emphasis on the need to increase the pro- The agriculture sector in Africa ductivity of smallholders and on improving Members stressed the importance of the agricul- governance. ture sector for Africa, its contribution to growth and poverty reduction, and in reaching the Mil- Thematic performance lennium Development Goals (MDGs). They Some speakers felt the IEG study should have agreed with IEG that agriculture was largely neg- analyzed further the importance of gender, lected by governments and donors, and noted including recommendations on how to better that the Bank's investment lending to the sector align gender with the Bank's assistance. Several has been relatively low. A few members noted members stressed the importance of the Bank's that the agriculture problem goes beyond the engagement in land tenure and sustainable Africa Region. One of them sought further infor- land management, while recognizing the po- mation on outstanding lending volume. Man- litical and social sensitivity of the matter and agement responded that the Bank's Africa acknowledging that this is a country-driven agriculture portfolio of 49 projects is $2.2 bil- process. Many speakers noted that the Bank has lion. New loans, credits, and grants for the last a role to play in promoting adaptation to climate two years (fiscal 2006 and 2007) exceeded $550 change, responding to droughts, and improving million each year, an 80 percent increase com- infrastructure, including transport, roads, and pared with the average for fiscal 2001 to 2005. water management. Relatedly, one member noted that the Bank does not have a compara- Bank contribution tive advantage in the agriculture processing There were comments on the need for enhanced industry and market-oriented products. The and scaled-up Bank support for agriculture in Bank should continue to scale up direct invest- Africa, a request for a proposal for streamlining ment in irrigation, extension, and provision of the Bank's engagement, and a status report on fertilizers and improved seeds. Technology activities for raising agricultural productivity in development and technology transfer for the Region. A member emphasized the need to increasing productivity were also relevant. The consider agriculture in Africa in the context of need for new knowledge and institutional the World Bank Group's Long-Term Strategy capacity, including for smallholders, as well as Exercise, led by the chief economist. Relatedly, sustainability was also cited. There were also the Bank Group should maintain coordination comments on the importance of farmers' access and consistency in country programming. A to credit, development of microfinance, and risk question was raised on whether there was a management instruments. In this vein, a speaker need to look at organizational aspects and noted the importance of IFC's role in agricul- management systems in the Bank. tural finance. l x v WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Aid architecture and the Bank should specialize in what it does Several speakers commented on the Bank's role well; that is, project management and monitor- and comparative advantage in the agriculture ing and evaluation. One speaker felt the IEG sector vis-à-vis other development partners. A study could have covered WBI activities--the few felt the Bank could play a coordination role nexus between research and implementation. in some areas such as donor financing or other Management responded that analytical work commitments such as the implementation of under the agriculture pillar of the Africa Action the Paris Declaration on alignment and harmo- Plan continues to be important and is being nization. One member noted the importance of designed to be more strategic and quality- aligning with the FAO and IFAD, which have oriented. It also noted that monitoring and recently conducted evaluations of their agricul- evaluation is integral to the Africa Action Plan, ture strategies. Others stressed the need for the particularly in measuring productivity. Bank to integrate contributions from other entities such as CGIAR and national research Financing and staffing centers. The high fragmentation of Bank and Some speakers stressed the importance of donor assistance in this sector was also ensuring appropriate human and financial mentioned. resources, including through IDA, trust funds, and grants to address the agricultural challenges Country focus of the poorest African countries. One member Some members stressed the importance of the regretted the progressive decline in the staff's demand-driven approach, based on a country's technical skills, although welcoming manage- own prioritization. The Bank should help ment's efforts and recently undertaken organi- countries identify the binding constraints in the zational changes. A few members sought country-specific context. In addition, there was further clarification on the different number of a need to address the role of the public sector technical experts presented by management vis-à-vis the private sector in the economy. and IEG. IEG clarified that it drew on human Caution in promoting liberalization of the resources data, which show that technical agriculture sector was requested. One member skills have declined since 1997. Management proposed making specific assessments based on noted that 37 out of 79 staff (47 percent) were the categorization of countries. In this regard, decentralized. Management also said that it countries could be identified as predominantly was undertaking a comprehensive skill-mix agrarian societies, resource-rich, or relatively review. advanced, such as South Africa. This member felt the study could have benefited from views of Data country authorities, while noting that staff views One member sought clarification on the were more on internal factors. divergence between management and IEG aggregated figures and country data. IEG noted Analytic work that while both IEG and management drew on Some members stressed the need to focus on World Development Indicators, management the Bank's comparative advantage in analytic drew on aggregate growth rates, while IEG work and policy advice. In this regard, some presented data by three categories of country speakers felt that there are numerous studies, performance. Jiayi Zou, Chairperson l x v i Rapport de synthèse du Président : Comité pour l'efficacité du développement (CODE) L e 3 octobre 2007, le Comité pour l'efficacité du développement (CODE) a examiné le rapport intitulé « World Bank Assistance to Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: An IEG Review », préparé par le Groupe indé- pendant d'évaluation (IEG), ainsi que le projet de Réponse de la direction. Rappel des faits que l'IEG prévoit d'effectuer durant l'exercice Le CODE a examiné l'évaluation de l'IEG 2009. intitulée « L'appui de la Banque mondiale au renforcement des capacités en Afrique » le La présente étude évalue l'efficacité de l'aide 23 mars 2005. L'IEG a également préparé l'étude apportée par la Banque mondiale pour remédier spéciale « The World Bank's Assistance to aux obstacles au développement agricole en Agricultural Water Management (1994­2004) », Afrique subsaharienne pendant la période datée du 7 juillet 2006. comprise entre les exercices 91 et 06. L'étude conclut que le secteur agricole a été négligé aussi Le projet de document « Rapport sur le bien par les autorités nationales que par la développement dans le monde 2008 : l'agricul- communauté des donateurs, Banque mondiale ture au service du développement » a été comprise. Elle constate que l'aide modérée de la examiné par le Conseil le 12 juin 2007 et doit être Banque -- en repli il y a peu encore -- a été publié le 19 octobre. Son principal message est largement apportée au coup par coup et que l'agriculture reste un instrument de « saupoudrée » entre plusieurs domaines développement essentiel qui nécessite, en essentiels tels que la recherche, la vulgarisation, Afrique, qu'on lève les obstacles à l'augmenta- le crédit, les semences, les routes et les réformes, tion de la productivité agricole des petits mais sans guère tirer parti des synergies existant exploitants -- qu'ils produisent essentiellement entre eux. En conséquence, malgré la relative pour leur consommation ou qu'ils pratiquent réussite affichée dans certains domaines, comme déjà une agriculture commerciale. la recherche, les résultats sur le terrain ont été limités en raison du manque d'interaction avec la Rapport de l'IEG vulgarisation et de la disponibilité insuffisante de La première finalité de l'étude de l'IEG était de facteurs complémentaires critiques tels que les faire un premier bilan du recentrage des activités engrais, l'eau et l'accès aux marchés. De de la Banque sur l'agriculture en Afrique, tel nombreux autres éléments entrent en ligne de qu'exprimé notamment dans le Plan d'action compte pour expliquer les performances pour l'Afrique. Cet examen aidera par ailleurs à médiocres de l'agriculture en Afrique, à savoir la établir le schéma directeur de l'étude sur l'aide mauvaise gouvernance et les conflits qui de la Banque mondiale à l'agriculture en général sévissent dans plusieurs pays, les capacités l x v i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A institutionnelles insuffisantes, la sous-estimation tions et à la fréquence des sécheresses. La par les États de l'importance de l'agriculture direction est d'accord avec ce constat, mais note pour le développement, mais aussi le manque de également que les performances de l'agriculture coordination entre les donateurs. sont affectées par certains paramètres techniques et par des facteurs économiques et L'étude note également qu'au fil du temps, les institutionnels plus généraux. La direction compétences techniques nécessaires à l'appui au estime que les recommandations de l'IEG développement agricole se sont amenuisées au abordent des points importants pour faire sein de la Banque, et que ses travaux d'analyse progresser l'agriculture en Afrique, mais que ont été peu nombreux, de qualité variable et plusieurs d'entre elles (par exemple assurer un n'ont pas servi de fondement stratégique à l'élab- accès satisfaisant aux intrants) ont besoin d'être oration des programmes de prêts et aux activités précisées avant de pouvoir être mises en oeuvre. de conseil. L'étude recommande que la Banque : Pour la direction, il convient d'appuyer ces i) favorise l'augmentation de la productivité efforts de précision des recommandations dans agricole en aidant à élaborer des mécanismes le cadre de l'aide actuellement apportée aux pays susceptibles de fournir aux agriculteurs tout un pour leur permettre de définir des programmes ensemble de facteurs, notamment des semences intégrés. Par rapport à l'IEG, la direction estime améliorées, de l'eau, des crédits et des services qu'il convient de mettre davantage l'accent sur de vulgarisation de qualité, de façon coordon- l'adhésion des pays aux programmes et sur née ; ii) s'emploie à renforcer ses propres l'harmonisation des actions avec les autres capacités afin de pouvoir apporter une aide partenaires de développement. appropriée au développement de l'agriculture, en augmentant le nombre et la qualité de ses Conclusions générales travaux d'analyse pour mieux définir les priorités Les membres du Comité ont apprécié l'examen dans chaque pays et en veillant à ce que ses de cette étude et les échanges de vues sur l'agri- activités de conseil et de prêt se fondent sur leurs culture en Afrique qui viennent à point nommé, conclusions, et en restaurant ses compétences se félicitant en particulier que le président techniques, et iii) perfectionne ses systèmes de compte en faire l'un de ses principaux messages données pour mieux suivre les opérations lors des Assemblées annuelles, et ont salué le qu'elle finance, et consolide le dispositif de suivi regain d'attention porté au développement et d'évaluation pour rendre correctement agricole pour favoriser la croissance économique compte des activités conduites dans le cadre de et la réduction de la pauvreté. Les membres ont projets dans différents pays. estimé que cet examen complétait bien le Rapport sur le développement dans le monde Projet de Réponse de la direction 2008, le Plan d'action pour l'Afrique et les actions La direction souscrit dans leurs grandes lignes menées en vue de la réalisation des ODM. Ils ont aux conclusions et recommandations formulées souligné la nécessité de veiller à ce que la Banque par l'IEG et a déjà commencé à les appliquer adopte une approche intégrée de la question pour beaucoup d'entre elles. L'exercice agricole pour remédier aux problèmes stratégique engagé par la direction en vue systémiques, en repérant les obstacles les plus d'identifier et de dimensionner des programmes pénalisants dans chaque contexte national et en agricoles intégrés sert de guide lors des tables répondant aux besoins urgents des pays pauvres rondes du CAADP et aide nos clients à élaborer d'Afrique par une démarche plurisectorielle et leurs propres programmes. La direction ne multidimensionnelle. De l'avis général, des partage pas l'avis de l'IEG sur l'importance objectifs réalistes doivent être définis pour les donnée à certains aspects. Le rapport de l'IEG interventions de la Banque, et un juste équilibre attribue le retard de croissance à des handicaps doit être trouvé entre les travaux d'analyse et les associés à la diversité agroécologique, à la activités de conseil. Les Administrateurs se sont pauvreté des sols, à la variabilité des précipita- également déclarés favorables à l'idée de l x v i i i R A P P O RT D E SY N T H È S E D U P R É S I D E N T : C O M IT É P OU R L' E F F I C AC IT É D U D É V E L O P P E M E N T ( C O D E ) redynamiser l'intervention de la Banque en se ayant eu lieu en 2005 ainsi que l'a rappelé la fondant sur ses avantages comparatifs en matière direction. Les membres du Comité ont déclaré de promotion du développement agricole, mais attendre avec intérêt l'étude sur l'aide de la dans le cadre d'une coordination et d'une Banque mondiale à l'agriculture en général que coopération claires avec d'autres partenaires de l'IEG prévoit d'effectuer durant l'exercice 09, développement comme la FAO. bien que quelques intervenants aient demandé que ce rapport soit examiné plus tôt. Les membres du Comité ont indiqué qu'il importait de prendre en compte l'avis des Les grands points ci-après ont été soulevés autorités nationales, de définir la place du service durant la réunion : public par rapport au secteur privé, et de s'adapter à l'architecture de l'aide internationale Le secteur agricole en Afrique et promouvoir la mise en oeuvre de la Déclara- Les membres du Comité ont souligné l'impor- tion de Paris, en évitant la fragmentation de tance du secteur agricole pour l'Afrique, sa l'aide. Ils ont également souligné l'importance contribution à la croissance, à la réduction de la de s'attaquer aux problèmes de la gouvernance, pauvreté, et à la réalisation des objectifs de de la corruption et des régimes fonciers, développement pour le Millénaire (ODM). Ils reconnaissant toutefois qu'il s'agissait là de ont rejoint l'analyse de l'IEG que l'agriculture questions sensibles du point de vue social, était largement négligée par les autorités économique et politique. Dans le même esprit, nationales et les donateurs, et relevé que le tout en convenant de la nécessité d'obtenir volume des prêts à l'investissement accordés par l'adhésion des pays et de répondre à une la Banque au secteur avait été relativement demande, les membres ont exprimé des modeste. Quelques membres ont fait observer opinions diverses sur le rôle et l'implication de la que le problème de l'agriculture dépassait le Banque. Les membres du Comité ont aussi mis cadre du continent africain. L'un d'entre eux a en avant les enjeux que représentent l'adapta- demandé un complément d'information sur tion aux changements climatiques, l'accès au l'encours des prêts. La direction a répondu que crédit pour les petits agriculteurs, et la mise au le portefeuille de la Banque sur l'agriculture en point d'instruments financiers novateurs, en Afrique comprenait 49 projets pour un montant particulier pour la gestion du risque, et l'impor- de 2,2 milliards de dollars. Les nouveaux prêts, tance d'avancer sur le dossier du commerce. Un crédits et dons octroyés ces deux dernières certain nombre d'autres questions ont été années (exercices 06 et 07) ont dépassé les évoquées par plusieurs intervenants, à savoir les 550 millions de dollars chaque année, soit une moyens financiers nécessaires, l'utilisation de augmentation de 80 % par rapport à la fonds fiduciaires et le rôle des prêts et des dons moyenne des exercices 01 à 05. de l'IDA ; le développement de nouvelles technologies et le transfert de technologies ; la Contribution de la Banque différenciation des pays en fonction de leur Des déclarations ont été entendues sur la niveau de développement ; les capacités institu- nécessité d'améliorer et étendre l'aide de la tionnelles et la viabilité des réformes de la Banque à l'agriculture en Afrique, de lancer un politique publique ; et des questions transver- appel d'offres pour rationaliser l'intervention de sales telles que les infrastructures, les transports, la Banque, et de préparer un rapport d'avance- l'eau, l'accès aux marchés et la promotion de la ment sur les actions menées pour accroître la femme. productivité agricole dans la Région. Un membre du Comité a insisté sur le fait qu'il importait Prochaines étapes d'aborder le dossier de l'agriculture africaine Il a été demandé que la Stratégie de développe- dans le contexte de l'Exercice stratégique à long ment rural fasse l'objet d'un réexamen, le dernier terme engagé par le Groupe de la Banque bilan de l'exécution de la stratégie sectorielle mondiale sous la direction de son Économiste l x i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A en chef. Dans le même ordre d'idées, le Groupe dans les produits « orientés marché ». La Banque devrait maintenir ses efforts de coordination et devait continuer à accroître ses investissements de cohérence dans la programmation des directs dans l'irrigation, la vulgarisation et la activités pour chaque pays. Une question a été fourniture d'engrais et de semences améliorées. soulevée sur la nécessité éventuelle d'analyser Le développement de nouvelles technologies et les aspects organisationnels et les systèmes de le transfert de technologies permettant gestion de la Banque. d'accroître la productivité étaient également importants. La nécessité de renforcer les savoirs Approche stratégique de la Banque et les capacités institutionnelles, y compris pour Les membres du Comité ont souligné l'impor- les petits exploitants, ainsi que la viabilité, a aussi tance d'adopter une approche totalement été mentionnée. Des remarques ont été intégrée de l'agriculture, tout en assurant des formulées par ailleurs sur l'importance de l'accès échanges féconds entre les secteurs. Ils ont des agriculteurs au crédit, du développement du proposé l'intégration d'autres secteurs, en microcrédit, et des instruments de gestion du particulier ceux associés à la pauvreté rurale : la risque. À cet égard, un intervenant a noté le rôle nutrition, la santé et l'éducation, et les infrastruc- majeur de l'IFC dans la finance agricole. tures et les transports liés à l'accès aux marchés. Une approche globale était nécessaire pour Architecture de l'aide remédier aux problèmes systémiques. De même, Plusieurs intervenants ont évoqué le rôle de la une approche multidimensionnelle était Banque et son avantage comparatif dans le également indispensable compte tenu de la secteur agricole par rapport aux autres complexité de ce secteur. Un certain nombre partenaires de développement. Quelques-uns d'intervenants ont demandé que l'on reste dans ont estimé que la Banque pouvait jouer un rôle la ligne du RDM, et notamment de l'accent qui y de coordination dans certains domaines, par est mis sur le besoin d'augmenter la productivité exemple les financements accordés par les des petits agriculteurs et sur l'amélioration de la donateurs, ou d'autres engagements tels que la gouvernance. mise en oeuvre de la Déclaration de Paris sur l'alignement et l'harmonisation de l'aide. Un Résultats par domaines membre du Comité a signalé l'importance de Certains intervenants ont estimé que l'étude de travailler en phase avec la FAO et le FIDA, qui ont l'IEG aurait dû analyser davantage l'importance procédé récemment à des évaluations de leurs de la promotion de la femme, et comporter stratégies pour l'agriculture. D'autres ont notamment des recommandations sur la souligné la nécessité pour la Banque d'intégrer manière de mieux intégrer cet aspect dans l'aide les contributions d'autres organismes comme le de la Banque. Plusieurs membres ont souligné CGIAR et les centres de recherche nationaux. Il a l'importance de l'intervention de la Banque dans aussi été fait référence à la fragmentation le domaine des régimes fonciers et de la gestion importante de l'aide de la Banque et des autres durable des terres, tout en reconnaissant le donateurs dans ce secteur. caractère politiquement et socialement sensible du problème, auquel il revient aux pays de s'atta- Spécificités nationales quer. De nombreux intervenants ont noté que la Certains membres du Comité ont insisté sur Banque avait un rôle à jouer pour ce qui était l'importance d'intervenir en réponse à une d'encourager les pays à s'adapter aux change- demande, en fonction des priorités définies par ments climatiques, de faire face aux sécheresses chaque pays. La Banque devrait aider les pays à et d'améliorer les infrastructures, notamment repérer les obstacles les plus pénalisants dans dans les transports, le réseau routier et la gestion leur contexte national. Il fallait également de l'eau. À ce sujet, un membre a fait remarquer repenser la place du secteur public par rapport que la Banque ne possédait pas d'avantage au secteur privé dans l'économie. Une certaine comparatif dans l'industrie agroalimentaire ni prudence a été demandée pour ce qui est de l x x R A P P O RT D E SY N T H È S E D U P R É S I D E N T : C O M IT É P OU R L' E F F I C AC IT É D U D É V E L O P P E M E N T ( C O D E ) promouvoir la libéralisation de l'agriculture. Un Financement et personnel membre a proposé de réaliser des évaluations en Certains intervenants ont insisté sur l'importance différenciant plusieurs catégories de pays. On de disposer de ressources humaines et financières pouvait ainsi caractériser les pays comme étant suffisantes, y compris à travers l'IDA, les fonds des sociétés à dominante agraire, riches en fiduciaires et les dons, pour s'attaquer aux ressources ou relativement avancées, comme problèmes de l'agriculture dans les pays africains l'Afrique du Sud. Ce membre a jugé que l'étude les plus pauvres. Un membre du Comité a regretté aurait pu gagner à présenter les opinions des le déclin progressif des compétences techniques autorités nationales, notant toutefois que les avis du personnel, saluant néanmoins les efforts faits des services de la Banque portaient davantage par la direction et la réorganisation entreprise sur les facteurs internes. récemment. Quelques membres ont demandé des éclaircissements sur la différence entre le nombre Travaux d'analyse d'experts techniques indiqué par la direction et Certains membres ont souligné la nécessité celui donné par l'IEG. L'IEG a expliqué qu'il d'axer les travaux d'analyse et les activités de utilisait les données du service des ressources conseil sur l'avantage comparatif de la Banque. À humaines, qui montrent que les compétences cet égard, des intervenants ont estimé qu'il techniques ont diminué depuis 1997. La direction existait de nombreuses études, et que la Banque a fait observer que sur les 79 membres du person- devrait se spécialiser dans ce qu'elle sait faire nel, 37 (47 %) étaient décentralisés. Elle a indiqué bien, à savoir la gestion de projet, et le suivi et également qu'elle était en train d'entreprendre l'évaluation. Un intervenant a indiqué que un état des lieux complet des compétences. l'étude de l'IEG aurait pu couvrir les activités du WBI, qui fait le lien entre recherche et applica- Données tion. La direction a répondu que les travaux Un membre du Comité a demandé des éclair- d'analyse sur l'agriculture entrepris dans le cissements sur l'écart entre les chiffres totaux et cadre du Plan d'action pour l'Afrique restaient les données sur les pays fournis par la direction une tâche importante à laquelle on s'employait et par l'IEG. L'IEG a déclaré que l'IEG et la à donner une orientation plus stratégique et direction tiraient tous les deux leurs chiffres des plus qualitative. Elle a fait remarquer Indicateurs du développement dans le monde, également que le suivi et l'évaluation faisaient mais que la direction utilisait les taux de partie intégrante du Plan d'action pour croissance globaux, tandis que l'IEG présentait l'Afrique, en particulier pour ce qui est de la des données selon trois catégories de pays mesure de la productivité. classés en fonction de leurs performances. Jiayi Zou, Président l x x i Resumo do Presidente: Comissão sobre a Eficácia do Desenvolvimento (COED) E m 3 de Outubro de 2007 a Comissão sobre a Eficácia do Desenvolvimento (COED) examinou o relatório intitulado A Assistência do Banco Mun- dial à África Subsariana: A Análise do GIA, elaborado pelo Grupo In- dependente de Avaliação (GIA), juntamente com a Resposta Preliminar da Administração. Antecedentes incorporada no Plano de Acção para a África. Ela A COED examinou a avaliação do GIA com o também vai ajudar a definir a estrutura do título de O Apoio do Banco Mundial para o projecto de estudo do GIA sobre a assistência à Aumento das Capacidades na África em 23 de agricultura prestada por todo o Banco, progra- Março de 2005. O GIA também elaborou um mada para o ano fiscal de 2009. estudo especial intitulado A Assistência do Banco Mundial à Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos O estudo avalia a eficácia para o desenvolvi- na Agricultura (1994 ­ 2004), com data de 7 de mento da assistência do Banco Mundial (BM) Julho de 2006. para abordar os constrangimentos existentes ao desenvolvimento da agricultura na África A versão preliminar do Relatório sobre o Subsariana durante o período compreendido Desenvolvimento Mundial de 2008: A Agricul- entre os anos fiscais de 1991 e 2006. O estudo faz tura para o Desenvolvimento foi objecto das notar que o sector da agricultura tem sido deliberações do Conselho de Administração do negligenciado tanto pelos governos como pela Banco em 12 de Junho de 2007, devendo o comunidade de doadores, incluindo o Banco relatório ser publicado no dia 19 de Outubro. A Mundial. Ele verifica que o apoio limitado e, até principal mensagem nele contida é que a agricul- recentemente, decrescente do Banco tem sido tura continua a ser um instrumento fundamental em grande medida prestado aos poucos e por para o desenvolvimento, e que no caso da África assim dizer "salpicado" através de várias áreas isto requer que sejam abordados os constrangi- essenciais, tais como, a investigação, a extensão, mentos à produtividade agrícola dos pequenos o crédito, as sementes, as estradas e as reformas agricultores-- tanto aqueles que dela dependem de política, porém com um reconhecimento para a sua subsistência como aqueles que escasso das sinergias existentes entre essas áreas. exercem uma actividade comercial. Em consequência, embora algumas áreas tenham tido um êxito comparativo maior -- por O Relatório do GIA exemplo, a investigação -- os resultados no A análise do GIA destinava-se principalmente a terreno foram limitados devido aos vínculos proporcionar uma visão e avaliação, em tempo débeis com a extensão a à disponibilidade oportuno, da focalização renovada do Banco na limitada de factores complementares essenciais, agricultura da África, especialmente tal como tais como, os fertilizantes, a água e o acesso aos l x x i i i WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A mercados. A governação deficiente e os conflitos de destaque. A análise do GIA atribui o lento em diversos países, a debilidade das capacidades crescimento a constrangimentos associados à institucionais, e a apreciação inadequada dos diversidade agro-ecológica, à pobreza dos solos, governos da importância da agricultura no à pluviosidade variável, e às secas frequentes. A desenvolvimento, assim como a coordenação Administração concorda, mas também assinala insuficiente dos esforços dos doadores, têm que factores, tanto económicos como institucio- contribuído para o fraco desempenho da agricul- nais, mais amplos afectam o desempenho. A tura no continente. Administração acha que as recomendações do GIA abordam questões que são importantes para O estudo também verifica que as competências o avanço da agricultura na África, mas que várias técnicas do Banco para apoiar o desenvolvi- das recomendações específicas (por exemplo, mento da agricultura diminuíram com o tempo, assegurar o acesso aos insumos em tempo e que o seu trabalho analítico tem sido limitado, oportuno) têm que ser mais detalhadas para que de qualidade variável, e que não tem informado possam ser postas em prática. A Administração estrategicamente a concepção dos programas de está a apoiar maiores precisões que são necessá- empréstimos ou o assessoramento de política. O rias, no âmbito da assistência já está prestada aos estudo recomenda que o Banco: (i) Apoie o países, para definir programas abrangentes. A melhoramento da produtividade agrícola Administração difere do GIA no que respeita a ajudando a conceber mecanismos que possam dar mais peso ao envolvimento dos países nos trazer vários factores, tais como, sementes programas e à harmonização com os outros melhoradas, água, crédito e bons conselhos parceiros no desenvolvimento. sobre a extensão, entre outros, aos agricultores, de uma maneira coordenada; (ii) Se concentre Conclusões Globais em melhorar as suas próprias capacidades para Os membros saudaram o debate oportuno sobre apoiar adequadamente ao desenvolvimento da este estudo e sobre a agricultura na África, agricultura, aumentando a quantidade e a especialmente a sua inclusão prevista como qualidade do trabalho analítico para ajudar a mensagem principal do presidente para as estabelecer as prioridades a nível dos países e a Reuniões Anuais, e o destaque renovado dado ao assegurar que a assessoria de política e os desenvolvimento da agricultura para o cresci- empréstimos se fundem nas suas conclusões, e mento económico e a redução da pobreza. Os reedificando as suas competências técnicas; (iii) membros pensaram que o debate era um bom Melhore os seus sistemas de dados para melhor complemento do Relatório sobre o Desenvolvi- fazer o seguimento das actividades apoiadas pelo mento Mundial de 2008 (RDM), do Plano de Banco, e reforçar o monitoramento e a avaliação Acção para a África e do trabalho no sentido de (M&A) para informarem com exactidão sobre as alcançar os OMD. Os membros frisaram a necessi- actividades dos projectos nos vários países. dade de assegurar que o Banco siga uma aborda- gem integrada à agricultura para que as questões Resposta Preliminar da Administração sistémicas sejam abordadas, identificando os A Administração concorda, no sentido amplo, constrangimentos que existem obrigatoriamente com as conclusões e recomendações do GIA e já no contexto dos diferentes países, e tratar das está a por muitas delas em prática. O exercício necessidades urgentes dos países pobres africa- estratégico em curso realizado pela Adminis- nos mediante uma abordagem multissectorial e tração, para identificar e definir as dimensões de multifacetada. Houve consenso sobre a necessi- programas abrangentes para a agricultura, dade de estabelecer metas realistas para a partici- informa as Mesas Redondas do Programa pação do Banco e um equilíbrio apropriado entre Abrangente para o Desenvolvimento da Agricul- o trabalho analítico e o assessoramento de tura na África (PADAA - CAADP) e ajuda os seus política. Os Administradores também apoiaram clientes a definir os seus próprios programas. A os esforços tendentes a revigorar o comprometi- Administração difere do GIA em algumas áreas mento do Banco com base na sua vantagem l x x i v R E S U M O D O P R E S I D E N T E : C O M I S S Ã O S O B R E A E F I C Á C I A D O D E S E N VO LV I M E N TO ( C O E D ) comparativa para promover o desenvolvimento GIA sobre a assistência a ser prestada pelo Banco, da agricultura, mas evidentemente com a coorde- na sua totalidade, à agricultura no ano fiscal de nação e cooperação de outros parceiros no 2009, embora alguns oradores tenham pedido desenvolvimento, tais como a FAO. que o relatório fosse examinado mais cedo. Os membros teceram comentários sobre a Os seguintes assuntos principais foram levanta- necessidade de incluir as opiniões dos governos, dos durante a reunião: de definir o papel do sector público em relação ao sector privado, e de se adaptar à arquitectura O sector da agricultura na África mundial das ajudas e avançar na implementação Os membros frisaram a importância do sector da da Declaração de Paris, evitando a fragmentação agricultura para a África, a sua contribuição para da assistência. Também frisaram a importância o crescimento e a redução da pobreza, e para de abordar as questões relacionadas com a alcançar os Objectivos do Milénio para o governação, a corrupção e a propriedade das Desenvolvimento (ODM). Concordaram com o terras, reconhecendo porém as sensibilidades GIA que a agricultura era, em grande medida, sociais, económicas e políticas deste assunto. negligenciada pelos governos e doadores, e Nesta ordem de ideias, se bem que estejam de assinalaram que os empréstimos para o acordo com a necessidade de seguir uma aborda- desenvolvimento concedidos pelo Banco a este gem de envolvimento dos países e induzida pela sector tinham sido relativamente poucos. Alguns procura, os membros expressaram opiniões membros fizeram notar que o problema da diversas sobre a função e a participação do agricultura existe para além da Região da África. Banco. Os membros também sublinharam a Um deles procurou obter mais informações adaptação às alterações climáticas, o acesso ao sobre o volume dos empréstimos por liquidar. A crédito pelos pequenos agricultores, e a criação Administração respondeu que a carteira de 49 de instrumentos financeiros inovadores, projectos para a agricultura na África é de USD especialmente para a gestão dos riscos, assim 2.2 biliões. Os novos empréstimos, créditos e como a importância de abordar a agenda do doações relativos aos últimos dois anos (anos comércio. Outros assuntos que causaram uma fiscais de 2006 e 2007) elevaram-se a mais de impressão positiva a vários participantes foram: USD 550 milhões em cada ano, ou seja, um os recursos financeiros necessários, a utilização aumento de 80 por cento comparado com a de fundos fiduciários, e a função dos emprésti- média dos anos fiscais de 2001 a 2005. mos e doações da AID; o desenvolvimento da tecnologia e a transferência de tecnologias; a A contribuição do Banco categorização dos países levando em conta os Foram feitos comentários sobre a necessidade níveis específicos de desenvolvimento; as capaci- de o Banco reforçar e aumentar o apoio que dades das instituições e a sustentabilidade das presta à agricultura na África, um pedido de uma reformas de política; e assuntos comuns a vários proposta relativa à racionalização da participação sectores, tais como, as infra-estruturas, os do Banco, e um relatório sobre a situação das transportes, a água, o acesso aos mercados e a actividades destinadas a incrementar a produtivi- dimensão de género. dade agrícola na Região. Um membro sublinhou a necessidade de considerar a agricultura da Os Próximos Passos a Dar África no contexto do Exercício para uma Estraté- Foi recebido um pedido de actualização da gia a Longo Prazo do Grupo do Banco Mundial, Estratégia Sectorial para o Desenvolvimento chefiado pelo economista principal. De maneira Rural, a qual, segundo apontado pela Adminis- conexa, o Grupo do Banco deveria manter a tração, tinha sido debatida pela última vez na coordenação e compatibilidade entre os progra- Actualização da Execução da Estratégia Sectorial mas dos países. Foi feita a pergunta de saber se de 2005. Os membros aguardavam com interesse havia necessidade de examinar os aspectos o exame que seria feito do estudo proposto do organizativos e os sistemas de gestão do Banco. l x x v WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A A abordagem estratégica do Banco agricultores, assim como a sustentabilidade. Os membros sublinharam a importância de Foram igualmente feitos comentários sobre a seguir uma abordagem totalmente integrada à importância do acesso ao crédito pelos agricul- agricultura, assegurando porém uma fertilização tores, do desenvolvimento de micro financia- Multissectorial. Propuseram a integração de mento e de instrumentos para a gestão dos outros sectores, especialmente daqueles que riscos. Nesta mesma ordem de ideias, um orador estão associados à pobreza rural: nutrição, saúde referiu-se à importância da função desempen- e educação, e infra-estruturas e transportes hada pela SFI no financiamento da agricultura. ligados ao acesso aos mercados. Era necessário seguir uma abordagem holística para tratar das A arquitectura das ajudas questões sistémicas. De maneira conexa, era Diversos oradores comentaram sobre o papel do também necessário seguir uma abordagem Banco e a sua vantagem comparativa no sector multifacetada devido à complexidade deste da agricultura em relação aos outros parceiros sector. Alguns oradores pediram que se que obram em prol do desenvolvimento. Alguns mantivesse a coerência com o RDM, em especial pensavam que o Banco podia exercer uma no que respeita destacar a necessidade de função de coordenador em algumas áreas, tais aumentar a produtividade dos pequenos como, o financiamento dos doadores ou outros produtores e de uma melhor governação. comprometimentos como a aplicação da Declaração de Paris relativamente ao alinha- Desempenho temático mento e à harmonização. Um membro mencio- Alguns oradores pensavam que o estudo do GIA nou a importância do alinhamento com a deveria ter analisado mais a importância do Organização das Nações Unidas para a Agricul- género, incluindo recomendações sobre a tura e a Alimentação (FAO) e o Fundo Interna- melhor maneira de alinhar as questões de cional de Desenvolvimento Agrícola (FIDA), os género à assistência prestada pelo Banco. quais realizaram recentemente uma avaliação das Diversos membros destacaram a importância do suas estratégias no campo da agricultura. Outros comprometimento do Banco com a propriedade insistiram sobre a necessidade de o Banco das terras e a gestão sustentável das mesmas, se integrar as contribuições de outras entidades, bem que reconhecendo a sensibilidade política e tais como, o CGIAR e os centros nacionais de social do assunto e reconhecendo que esse é um investigação. A grande fragmentação da assistên- processo induzido pelos países. Muitos oradores cia do Banco e dos doadores neste sector fizeram notar que o Banco tem um papel a também foi mencionada. desempenhar na promoção da adaptação às alterações climáticas, na reacção às secas, e no Focalização nos países melhoramento das infra-estruturas, incluindo os Alguns membros frisaram a importância de uma transportes, as estradas e a gestão dos recursos abordagem induzida pela procura, baseada nas hídricos. De maneira conexa, um membro prioridades estabelecidas pelos próprios países. assinalou que o Banco não tem uma vantagem O Banco deveria ajudar os países a identificar os comparativa na indústria transformadora dos constrangimentos obrigatórios no contexto produtos agrícolas e dos produtos orientados específico dos países. Adicionalmente, era para o mercado. O Banco deveria continuar a necessário abordar o papel desempenhado pelo aumentar o investimento directo na irrigação, na sector público face ao sector privado na extensão e no fornecimento de fertilizantes e economia. Solicitou-se cautela na promoção da sementes melhoradas. O desenvolvimento de liberalização do sector da agricultura. Um tecnologias e a transferência de tecnologias para membro propôs que fossem feitas avaliações aumentar a produtividade também eram específicas baseadas na categorização dos países. importantes. Foi também citada a necessidade A este respeito, os países poderiam ser identifi- de novos conhecimentos e capacidades institu- cados como sociedades predominantemente cionais, inclusivamente para os pequenos agrárias, ricas em recursos ou relativamente l x x v i R E S U M O D O P R E S I D E N T E : C O M I S S Ã O S O B R E A E F I C Á C I A D O D E S E N VO LV I M E N TO ( C O E D ) avançadas, tais como a África do Sul. Este apropriados, inclusivamente através da AID, de membro era de opinião que o estudo poderia ter fundos fiduciários, e doações para lidar com os beneficiado das opiniões das autoridades dos desafios que se colocam à agricultura nos países países, fazendo porém notar que as opiniões dos mais pobres da África. Um membro lamentou o funcionários do Banco incidiam mais sobre declínio progressivo das competências técnicas factores internos. dos funcionários, saudando ao mesmo tempo os esforços da Administração e as alterações organi- Trabalho analítico zativas recentemente introduzidas. Alguns Alguns membros frisaram a necessidade de membros procuraram obter esclarecimentos focalizar a vantagem comparativa do Banco no adicionais sobre o número diferente de especia- trabalho analítico e no assessoramento de listas técnicos apresentado pela Administração e política. A este respeito, alguns oradores pelo GIA. O GIA esclareceu que recorreu a pensavam que existem numerosos estudos, e dados relativos aos recursos humanos, os quais que o Banco deveria especializar-se naquilo que mostram que as competências técnicas vêm faz bem, isto é, na gestão, no monitoramento e diminuindo desde 1997. A Administração fez na avaliação dos projectos. Um orador pensava notar que 37 entre 79 funcionários (47 por que o estudo do GIA poderia ter coberto as cento) foram descentralizados. A Adminis- actividades do Instituto do Banco Mundial (IBM) tração referiu também que estava a empreen- -- o nexo entre a investigação e a implemen- der uma análise abrangente da composição tação. A Administração respondeu que o das competências. trabalho analítico sob o pilar do Plano de Acção para a África continua a ser importante Dados e está a ser concebido de forma a ser mais Um membro pediu um esclarecimento sobre a estratégico e orientado para a qualidade. divergência existente entre os números agrega- Também fez notar que o monitoramento e a dos apresentados pela Administração e pelo GIA e avaliação fazem parte integrante do Plano de entre os dados sobre os países. O GIA esclareceu Acção para a África, especialmente no que que, se bem que tanto o GIA como a Adminis- respeita a medição da produtividade. tração se tenham baseado no Indicadores do Desenvolvimento Mundial, a Administração Financiamento e dotação de pessoal tomou as taxas de crescimento agregadas Alguns oradores sublinharam a importância de enquanto que o GIA apresentou dados em três assegurar recursos humanos e financeiros categorias do desempenho dos países. Jiayi Zou, Presidente l x x v i i Women harvesting cotton in Madagascar. Photo by Yosef Hadar, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Evaluation Snapshot in Selected Languages English · Underperformance of agriculture has been various agricultural activities such as re- a major limitation of Africa's development. search, extension, credit, seeds, and policy For most of the past two decades, both gov- reforms in rural space, but with insufficient ernments and donors, including the World recognition of the synergies among them. Bank, have neglected the sector. · The Bank now has an opportunity, drawing · The Bank's limited--and, until recently, de- on its comparative advantage as a multi- clining--support to agriculture has not been sector lending institution and as the single strategically used to meet the diverse needs largest donor to African agriculture (dur- of a sector that requires coordinated inter- ing 1990­2005), to help ensure a coordi- ventions across a range of activities. Lend- nated and multifaceted approach to ing from the Bank has been sprinkled across agriculture development in Africa. French Français · Les mauvais résultats de l'agriculture ont rentes activités agricoles telles que la re- été un frein essentiel au développement cherche, la vulgarisation, le crédit, les se- de l'Afrique. Les autorités nationales et les mences et les réformes de l'espace rural, bailleurs de fonds, dont la Banque mon- mais sans tenir suffisamment compte de diale, ont négligé ce secteur pendant l'es- leurs synergies. sentiel des vingt années écoulées. · La Banque mondiale a aujourd'hui la pos- · L'aide modérée et, jusque récemment, en sibilité, en s'appuyant sur l'avantage com- recul de la Banque mondiale à l'agriculture paratif qu'elle détient en tant qu'institution n'a pas été utilisée de manière stratégique de crédit multisectorielle et premier bailleur pour répondre aux besoins variés d'un sec- de fonds à l'agriculture africaine (de 1990 à teur qui nécessite des interventions coor- 2005), d'adopter une approche coordonnée données dans des domaines très divers. et pluridimensionnelle au développement Ses crédits ont été dispersés entre diffé- de l'agriculture sur ce continent. l x x i x WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Portuguese Português · O fraco desempenho da agricultura tem agrícolas, tais como, a investigação, a ex- sido uma limitação importante para o de- tensão, o crédito, as sementes e as reformas senvolvimento da África. Durante a maior de política no espaço rural, mas não houve parte das duas últimas décadas, tanto o go- um reconhecimento suficiente das siner- verno como os doadores, incluindo o Banco gias existentes entre elas. Mundial, negligenciaram este sector. · O Banco tem agora a oportunidade, apro- · O apoio limitado, e até recentemente de- veitando a sua vantagem comparativa como crescente, do Banco à agricultura não foi uti- instituição de crédito multilateral e sendo lizado estrategicamente para suprir as o maior doador para a agricultura africana diversas necessidades de um sector que re- (durante o período compreendido entre quer intervenções coordenadas através de 1990 e 2005), de assegurar que seja seguida várias actividades. Os empréstimos do Banco uma abordagem coordenada e multifacetada têm sido espalhados por várias actividades ao desenvolvimento da agricultura na África. l x x x Chapter 1 Evaluation Highlights · Sub-Saharan Africa is a diverse and complex Region and is behind on most of the Millennium Development Goals. · Agricultural development can make a major contribution to poverty alle- viation and growth. · Increasing agricultural productivity is key to improved food security for both rural and urban poor. Picking tomatoes in irrigated fields, Senegal River Basin. Photo by Scott Wallace, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Introduction S ub-Saharan Africa is a diverse and complex Region with more than 700 million people and at least 1,000 different ethnic groups in 47 countries with 7 distinctly different colonial histories. Some of the world's poor- est countries are in the Region, and during the past two decades, the num- ber of Africa's poor has doubled, from 150 million to 300 million, constituting more than 40 percent of the Region's population (World Bank 2005e). According to the World Development Report B4, appendix B). The underperformance of the 2008, the rural poverty rate in the Region was 82 sector initially led to skepticism about agricul- percent in 2002.1 Africa remains behind on most ture's potential to contribute to Africa's growth of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). and poverty reduction (Diao and others 2006). As a result, the Region and its development are But the weak performance of Africa's agriculture now a priority for the international community. is attributable to a variety of factors that are unique to the sector in that Region. This evaluation of the A major reason that Africa lags behind other World Bank's contribution to development of the Regions is the underperformance of its agricul- agriculture sector in Sub-Saharan Africa provides ture, which accounts for 30 percent of the gross some insights into these reasons based on Bank domestic product (GDP) and employs 75 percent experience. of the population (Commission for Africa 2005). The weak performance of the sector is the result The Role of Agriculture in Africa of a variety of constraints that are particular to If Africa is to achieve the MDGs, its agriculture agriculture in Africa and make its development a sector has to be developed. Until recently the complex challenge. Poor governance and conflict sector was neglected because neither govern- in several countries makes things even more ments nor donors made its development difficult. a priority. In the immediate post- independence era, during the 1960s, Achievement of the MDGs Total agricultural output in Africa consists governments in several African coun- in Africa will require primarily of food crops; agricultural export crops tries treated agriculture primarily as a realization of account for only 8 percent of total agricultural source of resources for industrializa- agriculture's potential. production (Peacock, Ward, and Gambarelli tion, in the belief that industrialization 2007). While some export crops, such as cotton, was the way to development and food aid could have often been considered an African success meet the needs of cities and help deal with story (see appendix I), food crops have performed emergencies.2 Production of cash crops was particularly poorly in most countries. Cereal yields encouraged as a source of foreign exchange for in Africa, even in 2003­05, were less than half development. those in South Asia and one-third those in Latin America. Africa also lags behind other Regions in Then, in the 1970s, World Bank President Robert percentage of cropland irrigated, fertilizer use, McNamara led the shift from an economic and land and labor productivity per worker (table growth paradigm to a broader development 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A paradigm in Africa. This committed the Bank to means lower food prices.5 Based on work in eight integrated rural development to directly attack countries in the Region, Dorosh and Haggblade Africa's rural poverty and underdevelopment (2003) found that investments in agriculture (Eicher 1999). While in Asia this broader rural generally favor Africa's poor more than similar focus came after the initial focus on food produc- investments in manufacturing.6 IFPRI research tion and the building of institutions, serious (2002b) shows that each 10 percent increase in focus on agricultural development by donors did smallholder agricultural productivity in Africa can not take place in Africa because of this shift in move almost 7 million people above the dollar-a- priorities.3 day poverty line. Recent Bank analytical work has found similar favorable results for poverty Agriculture has strong Later, when African countries were reduction arising from increased agricultural indirect effects on growth faced with severe fiscal crises in the production (World Bank 2005j). Hartmann in other sectors. mid-1980s, donors prioritized im- (2004) has gone as far as to note that if the provements in the efficiency of development community had to choose just one resource allocation. In the agriculture sector, activity with which to address the first MDG of more emphasis was given to marketing reforms, reducing extreme poverty and hunger in Africa, it rather than to the development of all relevant should be to produce more food. activities in the sector. Success with marketing reforms was considered a crucial determinant of Growth the overall response of the economy to changing Recent research demonstrates that the effect of economic incentives. agriculture on wider growth is also likely to be substantial. Christiaensen and Demery (2007) Moving forward, a focus on agricultural develop- distinguish between the direct and indirect ment is critical to contribute to poverty reduc- effects of this growth and argue that while tion and economic growth in the Region. agriculture tends to grow more slowly than non- agriculture, the indirect effects of agriculture on Poverty reduction non-agriculture are substantially larger than the Farming in Africa is largely a household reverse feedback effects. These effects arise from enterprise, and most farmers have 0.5 to 2.0 linkages to agro-processing and input produc- hectares of land. For most of them, the small tion, for example, as well as from the "wage good piece of land they farm (whether or effect," which means that lower food prices Farming in Africa is not they own it) is their only tangible imply an increase in saving at a given level of largely carried out by asset. This differs sharply from the income and can stimulate demand for goods smallholder farmers, and situation in South Asia, where most of produced by the non-agriculture sector. low productivity and not the poor are landless (Lipton and landlessness is the major others 2003).4 Low productivity and Study Purpose problem. not landlessness is the major problem The purpose of this IEG review is twofold. First, in Africa. Under such circumstances, it serves as a pilot for the proposed IEG study of increasing the productivity of small pieces of land Bank-wide assistance in agriculture scheduled has the potential to reduce poverty significantly for fiscal 2009. Second, the review provides in the Region. timely insight into specific issues relevant to the Bank's renewed focus on agriculture in Africa, The relationship between poverty reduction and especially as expressed in the Africa Action Plan. agriculture in Africa is a powerful one. However, it In addition, the African Union has launched a is not always sufficiently appreciated vision and strategic framework for Africa's Increased agricultural that productivity improvement not renewal--the New Partnership for Africa's productivity improves only increases the food security of the Development (NEPAD). The Comprehensive food security for both rural poor, but also benefits the urban Africa Agriculture Development Programme is at rural and urban poor. poor, for whom increased production the heart of efforts by African governments 4 I N T RO D U C T I O N under the NEPAD initiative to accelerate growth · Although food security is discussed, the re- and eliminate poverty and hunger. Lessons of port does not discuss the merits or demerits experience from the Bank will contribute to the of food aid. discussion surrounding these initiatives and will · The discussion on market access for agricultural likely inform future international aid agendas products is confined to transport infrastructure and policy directions. and does not extend to other barriers, such as those arising from the need for conformity Study Scope with specifications demanded by supermar- The focus of the study is agricultural develop- kets. ment, not the broader issue of rural develop- ment, in Africa over the 15-year period of Methodology 1991­2006. The 47 countries of the Region are The evaluation is built on four main sources of highly diverse in resources, endowments (see information: table B.1, appendix B for categorization), and ability to commit politically to actions that · Portfolio review: In consultation with the Bank's increase growth and reduce poverty (World Bank Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD) De- 2002a). Given this diversity, the study focuses partment, IEG identified a portfolio of projects primarily on the common issues across countries with agriculture components for review. Trends that are relevant for agricultural development in in lending for the portfolio of 262 projects the Region as derived largely from a limited set of were examined. In addition, a stratified random strategic statements of the Bank. The scope of sample of 71 closed and ongoing projects was the review is also influenced by the following: selected from the portfolio for detailed review. The Bank's nonlending activities (including · Only the Bank's direct lending and nonlending relevant rural strategy documents), Country As- activities have been considered as a part of this sistance Strategies, and Poverty Reduction study. The Bank was the single largest donor to Strategy Papers were also examined to assess African agriculture during 1990­2005, and an the Bank's strategic approach to the develop- evaluation of its activities can provide valuable ment of the agriculture sector. insights into the challenge of agricultural de- · Country-level reviews: Two countries in East velopment in the Region. Undoubtedly greater Africa (Kenya and Malawi) and two in West value could be added if Bank support could be Africa (Cameroon and Nigeria) were selected assessed along with the activities supported for sector reviews to provide country-specific by other donors. However, such an exercise can- insights. Assessments of 13 agricultural projects not be easily carried out with modest resources. in various African countries were also fielded Other multilateral organizations, such as the by IEG in fiscal 2007. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), · Literature review: Bank and non-Bank literature African Development Bank (AfDB), and the In- provided a basis for understanding the com- ternational Fund for Agricultural Development plexities in African agriculture and the Bank's (IFAD) are also currently evaluating their sup- role, as well as for confirming the findings of port to the agriculture sector in Africa. When the portfolio analysis and the country-level these evaluations are complete, they will be reviews. brought to bear in IEG's forthcoming study of · IEG Bank staff survey: Bank staff (both head- Bank-wide assistance to agriculture. quarters and field-based) views on internal fac- · The report draws on the findings of other IEG tors and incentives related to the Bank's studies that have reviewed regional and global assistance were sought. The survey was sent to programs in support of agricultural develop- 258 staff who worked on agricultural issues in ment, but did not itself encompass a compre- the Africa Region and in the ARD Network as hensive review of all related regional and global agriculture specialists or as task managers of programs. projects with agricultural components, in- 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A cluding projects in sectors such as transport studies). Second, the response rate of the staff and multisector operations. survey was only 22 percent. Since it is in the na- ture of opinion surveys to have a response bias, Some limitations of study design it is difficult to ascertain whether those who The study has two main limitations. First, although responded are representative of the 258 staff to project assessments provide the field input and whom the survey was originally sent. Because of bring the perspectives of government officials and the limited number of responses and the likely other stakeholders on the Bank's support to response bias, the survey results have been used agriculture, the study is largely a desk review only to illustrate and/or substantiate the findings carried out over 8 months and on a limited budget from other information sources. Details on the (compared with typical IEG sector/thematic methodology are included in appendix A. 6 Chapter 2 Evaluation Highlights · Because of Africa's agro-ecologi- cal diversity, climate variability, poor soils, and limited irrigation, devel- opment of African agriculture is a complex challenge. · The strategy for agricultural devel- opment in Africa will need to be based on a recognition of the Region's particular characteristics. · If improved seeds, water, infra- structure, credit, and extension, among other measures, are made available at the same time or in op- timal sequence, rapid growth in agri- cultural incomes is achievable in Africa. Minibus piled high with goods and animals, Burkina Faso. Photo by Curt Carnemark, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. African Agriculture and the Bank T his section provides a brief background to the agriculture sector in Sub- Saharan Africa, followed by an examination of the Bank's strategic ap- proach for development of the sector. It also identifies the main constraints to agricultural development in the Region. The Agriculture Sector in Africa well over the past decade, however. Agricultural sector Agriculture in Africa is primarily a private family Some countries moved from being growth has been highly activity, carried out largely by smallholders. poor performers in 1990­2000 to erratic across the Region Women provide about half of the labor force and being better performers in 2000­04, and over time. produce most of the food crops consumed by and some moved in the opposite the family. In some countries women's share in direction. The change has often been dramatic, agricultural labor is even larger. In the Republic which makes aggregate growth rates misleading. of Congo, for example, 70 percent of those For example, agriculture in Angola grew at 13.7 involved in food crop production are women. percent a year during 2000­04, but had retreated While agricultural output is growing in Africa, by 1.4 percent during 1990­2000. The high labor productivity in the sector has been low and growth in the later period was because the stagnant over most of the past two decades country was starting from a very low base after a (World Bank 2002a). period of conflict.1 Only about a dozen countries, among them Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Calculating a reliable growth rate for African Nigeria, and Tanzania, show consistent growth in agriculture over the study period is difficult agriculture of over 3 percent over the period because of the wide variation among countries 1990­2004 (table B.3, appendix B).2 and over time. The 47 countries in the Region can be divided into three categories: the compara- Agricultural production in Africa has grown since tively better performers, with agricultural growth the 1960s, but that growth is distinctly different above 5 percent per year during 2000­04; the from that in other Regions. Great strides in cereal medium performers, with agricultural growth production in South Asia over the 40- between 2 and 5 percent; and the poor perform- year period from 1961 to 2001, for Increased agricultural ers, with negative or very low agricultural growth example, were mainly the result of production over (see table B.2, appendix B). increased yields (figure 2.1 and table 1961­2001 was mainly B.4, appendix B). African production the result of more land The better performers did not consistently do of both cereals and root crops in the under cultivation. 9 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Figure 2.1: Changes in Cereal Production Produced by Changes in Area and Yield, 1961­2001 (1961 = 100) South Asia 200 180 160 ge)n 140 120 chatn 1981 = 172 100 1971 = 125 1991 = 222 2001 = 282 cer 1961 = 100 80 (pe earA 60 Production 40 (area x yield) 100 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 Yield (percent change) Sub-Saharan Africa 200 180 2001 = 246 160 ge)n 140 1991 = 204 chatn 120 1971 = 125 100 cer 1961 = 100 1981 = 146 (pe 80 Production earA 60 (area x yield) 40 100 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 Yield (percent change) Source: Henao and Baanante 2006. same period rose mainly because more land was shortages of labor for cultivation in several brought under cultivation, while crop yields countries (World Bank 2000; Shapouri and Rosen were largely stagnant (Eilitta 2006). In recent 2001). However, the implications of this capacity years, however, expansion too has stagnated, issue need to be examined much more systemat- indicating that land frontiers may have been ically (IFPRI 2004b). reached, at least in some countries. Food imports have grown rapidly over the period The rapidly increasing population has also of fiscal 1991­2006. Food production in the further reduced the arable land per capita. Region as a whole has not kept pace with popula- Paradoxically, even with rising population tion growth, and food imports have filled the numbers, the high incidence of HIV and AIDS gap. Meanwhile, Africa's exports, which are and diseases such as malaria have created primarily agriculture-based, have declined, and 1 0 A F R I C A N AG R I C U LT U R E A N D T H E BA N K in several commodities, including coffee, the potential zones. Even here, while As productivity Region has lost its share of the world market to international commodity markets have stagnated, food imports competitors. Beginning in 1973, Africa became a continued to expand, Africa's exports increased. net food importer, and this represented the have shrunk over time, and today beginning of a chronic food gap for the Region Africa's total volume of exported farm commodi- (Eicher 1999). ties (groundnuts, palm oil, and sugar, among others) is actually smaller than it was 30 years ago The Aid Architecture for Agriculture (IFPRI 2002a). in Africa Both multilateral (World Bank, IFAD, FAO, AfDB) Some nontraditional exports--such as Kenyan and bilateral (such as Development Cooperation flowers, Nigerian shrimp, Malian mangoes, and Directorate­Development Assistance Commit- pineapples and beans in several countries--have tee, or DCD-DAC, member countries) donors fared well. Private investment in agricultural have provided support for agriculture develop- research and development (R&D) has been ment in Africa. However, aid to African agriculture small; it was only about 2.3 percent of the total from both sources declined between 1981 and spent on R&D in 2000, and much of that was 2001 (appendix E). With the increasing focus on spent in South Africa. A number of international the development of Africa, both bilateral and seed companies have invested in maize seed multilateral aid to African agriculture has picked multiplication, and in September 2006 the up since 2000. More recently, China has become Rockefeller and Bill and Melinda Gates Founda- an important bilateral donor to African agricul- tions together launched a new partnership to ture. Average annual aid flows to Africa as a whole help Africa develop its agriculture. were 13 percent higher in 2000­05 than in 1995­2000 (UNCTAD data). Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have also been increasingly involved in African agricul- Both bilateral and multilateral donors have been tural development, particularly in activities that equally important players in terms of aid involve community mobilization and amounts provided. Organisation for Economic extension support services. Some The Bank has been an Co-operation and Development (OECD) data NGOs have also been participating in important player in the show that though bilateral donors as a group research and the development of overall aid environment have played a comparatively larger role, the Bank marketing chains and input supply. for agriculture, although (IDA [International Development Association]) However, the effectiveness of NGOs both bilateral and was the single largest donor to African agricul- in contributing efficiently to develop- multilateral donors have ture over the period 1990­2005. The largest ment in these areas has still to be been important. bilateral donors were the United States and Japan assessed. (table E.2, appendix E). Twenty-five percent of Bank-supported projects in the agriculture Donor coordination sector have been cofinanced by other bilateral A major challenge has been the varied strategies and multilateral donors. and priorities of the bilateral and multilateral donors that provide support for agricultural Foreign private sector flows into Africa are modest development in Africa. The literature suggests that in comparison with bilateral and multilateral aid over the years, there has been some (Hazell and von Braun 2006). Of foreign direct improvement in coordination among Donor coordination of investment (FDI) in the developing world as a donors, but more so on procedures strategies still has a long whole, less than 1 percent went to Africa in the than on policies and strategies.3 way to go. early 2000s (IFPRI 2002a). Africa's connections with the modern global economy are weak, and The country is expected to be in the driver's seat private commercial investment in agriculture has on the strategy for development of a sector. been largely limited to export crops and higher- Though progress has varied across countries, 1 1 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A there is little systematic evidence to suggest that 1975 Rural Development Policy Paper (World Bank support for agricultural development is part Bank 1975, p. 18) noted: of a coordinated approach among donors to support country strategies for development of The central concept of rural development their agriculture sectors. A review of the Bank's presented here is of a process through which Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) carried out rural poverty is alleviated by sustained for this study found that two-thirds of the increases in the productivity and incomes of documents do not discuss coordination of low-income rural workers and households. . . . agriculture interventions by donors. Of those that Most of the low-income groups in the rural do, there is little detail on specifics. In other areas depend heavily on agriculture for their words, while commitment to donor coordination livelihood. It follows that many of the programs is signaled, the form of the relationship between intended to raise rural incomes must center Bank and other donor interventions is not. on agricultural development. A review of the sample of project appraisal and In the mid-1980s, the Bank began to expand its completion reports also found that while there is role in human development, and environment some discussion of intent to coordinate particu- and sustainable development became important lar donor activities at the appraisal stage, there is concepts in the mid-1990s. The next rural little follow-through. At the completion stage, strategy, Vision to Action (1997), took on a the reports provide little or no information on broader rural focus,4 which persisted in Reaching other donor support in the area, or how the the Rural Poor (2003). This led to increases in Bank effort fits in with the activities of other Bank rural lending over time, and agriculture donors in agriculture. Completion reports for became a smaller percentage of the total rural Bank projects rarely, if ever, report on the activi- portfolio. The timing of this shift had important ties supported in the same project by other co- implications for donor support for agricultural financiers. development in Africa, as discussed in chapter 1. The World Bank's Strategic Approach The Bank has not had a formal agriculture The Bank has no separate strategy document for the Africa Region, though The Bank has no separate strategy for the agriculture some technical and discussion papers were agriculture strategy for sector, but rather has usually produced and were influential in shaping strate- Africa--its approach has articulated its agriculture goals gic thinking on agriculture in the Region. The been embedded in the in the context of broader rural 1993 paper A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Bank's broader rural development strategies. There Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World development strategy. also have been several subsec- Bank (World Bank 1993c) emphasized reform of tor strategy papers and oper- the enabling environment to enhance private ational directives, such as those for forestry and sector interest and restructuring of parastatals water resource management. and other services where private operation is likely to be more efficient. It also encouraged In the Rural Development Strategy Papers, the more regional integration of agricultural markets importance given to agriculture has varied over and put more emphasis on land tenure. Both time. A review of the three rural strategy docu- Vision to Action and Reaching the Rural Poor ments (Rural Development Sector Strategy Paper, included specific development strategies for 1975; Vision to Action, 1997; and Reaching the Africa, and both recognized the importance of Rural Poor, 2003) revealed that agriculture had increasing agricultural productivity for agricul- greater prominence as part of rural development tural development. in the 1970s than in later years, mainly because in the initial years, the Bank's activities in rural areas More recently, the World Bank's 2005 Africa were primarily related to agriculture. The Bank's Action Plan (World Bank 2005e) recognized the 1 2 A F R I C A N AG R I C U LT U R E A N D T H E BA N K agriculture sector as a potential driver of growth. thematic areas" (DAC 2007, p. 6). The With the broader rural The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Develop- report also implies that it will support focus from the 1980s ment Programme (CAADP) is at the heart of the both irrigation and rain-fed agricul- onward, agriculture New Partnership for Africa's Development ture, but it is not clear how limited received an increasingly (NEPAD) initiative to accelerate growth and resources will be distributed between small share of lending. eliminate poverty and hunger. The Africa Action the two and how adequate resources Plan, in line with the CAADP, gives priority to will be mobilized to meet the anticipated making agriculture more productive and sustain- outcome of an "increase in irrigated land by able. Among other things, the Action Plan 2011," which has replaced the 50 percent target emphasizes increasing public and private invest- noted above. It is not clear how progress toward ments to expand irrigation by 50 percent over the "increase in irrigated land" is to be assessed the fiscal 2005 base by the end of fiscal 2008, with without a target. the Bank as lead financial partner. NEPAD also advocates Regional integration to overcome the From the comparative analysis of the strategy fragmentation of the continent and to reduce documents, IEG identified a set of critical con- Africa's economic marginalization. The Bank's straints to agricultural development in Africa that Action Plan recognizes the importance of were defining the Bank's strategic approach. A supporting these initiatives. review of the literature provided further support that these constraints were key to the develop- From the various rural strategy documents, this ment of agriculture in Africa. The constraints are review extracted the broader strategic goals the as follows: Bank has pursued in African agriculture during fiscal 1991­2006. A wide range of issues is · Agro-ecological diversity Strategic documents covered, as reflected in table A.1, appendix A. The · Rainfall and droughts include a number of treatment of issues differs across documents. · Soil fertility broad goals for Moreover, there are inconsistencies among · Water agriculture. From these, it priorities in the different documents. For ex- · Seeds is possible to identify the ample, it is not clear why the Africa Action Plan · Credit and rural finance set of constraints to makes irrigation a priority, when two years earlier · Transport infrastructure agriculture in Africa that the Regional strategy in Reaching the Rural Poor · Extension have defined the Bank's emphasized that rain-fed agriculture should take · Land reform lending and nonlending priority since "over 95 percent of cultivated land · Price and marketing reform. program in the Region. is rain-fed . . . increasing yields on rain-fed lands by just 10 percent would have far greater im- The constraints are detailed below and used in pact on total agricultural output than doubling the evaluative review of the Bank's performance area under irrigation" (World Bank 2003d, pp. in chapter 5. In addition to the above constraints, 101­02). the study covers Bank and borrower capacity issues, including building research capacity, in The recent "Progress in Implementation" report chapter 4. on the Africa Action Plan (DAC 2007) rightly emphasizes the importance of increasing agricul- Some issues that appear as a priority in the tural productivity in Africa, though it is not clear strategy documents are not covered as stand- how much importance it is accorded relative to alone issues in the thematic assessment in other priorities identified in the Action Plan, chapter 5. These include issues related to agro- given that progress is lagging. The progress forestry, agro-business, livestock, and natural report clearly notes that "the AAP [Africa Action resource management. Gender, the importance Plan] is on track to meet the expected outcomes of which is acknowledged in the strategy docu- in all but two (agricultural productivity and ments, is not covered separately but is treated gender) of the [shared growth] pillar's nine where appropriate. Finally, decentralization and 1 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A empowerment of producer organizations are not environment, farmers must rely on diversified addressed because they are part of other IEG coping strategies, which influence decisions studies. about the choice of crops planted, inputs used, and non-farm activities taken up.7 Unlike farmers Main Constraints to Africa's Agricultural in South Asia, where irrigation is widespread, Development most African farmers do not produce a single crop such as rice or wheat in one season. Instead, Agro-ecological diversity to ensure at least some produce from their land, Sub-Saharan Africa has a total land area of 2,455 farmers normally plant several varieties of crops million hectares, 41 percent of which is classified (typically 10 or more) with different maturity as agricultural land. The Region is characterized by periods, together with trees. Millet, sorghum, a diverse range of agro-ecological zones spread maize, cassava, and other root crops are among across countries. A country can include land area the most important food crops in the Region.8 that falls under several agro-ecological zones, as in Cereals such as rice and wheat, the mainstay of Ethiopia, for example. The arid and semi-arid Asia's Green Revolution, are grown, but are less ecological zone in Africa accounts for 43 percent of important. Livestock rearing is also a critical part the land area; the dry subhumid of this diversified system and is a source of The Region has a diversity zone, 13 percent; and the moist wealth to be drawn on for survival when all else of agro-ecological zones subhumid and humid zones, 38 fails. and differentiated percent (FAO 2001).5 Based production and farming on the natural resource base, Soil fertility systems. dominant livelihood, and the Low soil fertility is a major contributor to the low degree of integration between productivity of African production systems crops and livestock, several production/farming (Sanchez and others 1997; Donovan and Casey systems with variable potential for agricultural 1998; Scoones 2001; Mekuria and Waddington production have been defined for the Region (see 2002; and Sasakawa Africa Association 2004a). table C.2, appendix C). Only 6 percent of the land in the Region has high agricultural potential (Tegene and Wiebe 2003 Rainfall and droughts quoted in Ehui and Pender 2005). One of the biggest challenges faced by the average smallholder in Africa is food insecurity Soil fertility is affected by a number of factors. arising from risk of crop loss from variations in Compared with soils in parts of North America, rainfall and droughts. Climatic variability is a Europe, and Asia, most African soils are naturally particular problem in the arid and semi-arid low in nitrogen and deficient in phosphorous, ecological zones. Even in years when precipita- sulfur, magnesium, and zinc (Grant 1981 quoted tion is adequate overall, rain can start late or in Donovan and Casey 1998). In addition, most finish early, with disastrous consequences for parts of Africa have shallow topsoil that provides agriculture. Rainfall variability in Africa is roughly little root room for crop anchorage and extrac- twice that of temperate regions (World Bank tion of nutrients and water (ECA 2003). Soils are 2004a). Droughts in the Region are also much also heavily leached and have high acidity and more frequent than anywhere else in the world.6 low organic content (Donovan and Casey 1998). Pests and diseases add to the vulnerability faced Poor soil fertility was less critical for agricultural by farmers. For example, invasions of desert development when it was possible to freely locusts have occurred repeat- extend the land frontier and allow some agricul- Africa has a high degree edly in the Sahel region and tural land to lie fallow. However, rapidly growing of climatic variability, have triggered famines in populations and land shortages have reduced and droughts are more several West Africa countries. the amount of potential fallow land, as well as the frequent than in other length of fallow periods, further reducing soil Regions. To survive in such a harsh fertility. 1 4 A F R I C A N AG R I C U LT U R E A N D T H E BA N K Of course, soil fertility can be improved by the poor capacity to hold and release A major constraint on application of organic and inorganic fertilizers moisture. As a consequence of the productivity is low soil and better land management practices, including variable rainfall and poor soil quality, fertility--only 6 percent application of indigenous techniques to increase it has been estimated that about of the land in Africa has soil fertility and water retention, such as tie 86 percent of Africa's land area is un- high agricultural ridges. But that has not happened in Africa. der moisture stress. Moreover, water potential. Unlike other continents where soil fertility conservation and management in depletion has been tackled by applying fertiliz- rain-fed areas is not practiced adequately. ers, Africa has had tremendous quantities of nitrogen and phosphorus taken out of the soil Fewer than 5 million hectares of the land in Africa that have not been returned (IFPRI 2004b). are irrigated--about 4.9 percent of total Labor shortages also often deter farmers from cultivated area compared with 40 investing in indigenous low-input intensification percent in South Asia. More than 3 Only about 5 percent of methods, and organic fertilizers are not available million hectares of that irrigated land the cultivated area is in large enough quantities to provide the are in just two countries--Madagascar irrigated and 86 percent necessary basic nutrients (Sanders and others and the Sudan (Wiggins 2000). Agri- of the land area is under 1996). Cattle diseases and shrinking farm size cultural production in most parts of moisture stress. have limited access to organic fertilizers for many Africa is carried out without irrigation. farmers, which increases the need for inorganic The area under irrigation is a very small part of fertilizers (SIDA 2006). the potentially irrigable area in most countries (table K.1, appendix K), which also have limited Most of Africa relies on imported fertilizers water storage infrastructure. purchased at highly variable international prices, and poor infrastructure adds to fertilizer, distri- A major constraint on expanding irrigation bution, and marketing costs, putting it out of infrastructure is the high investment costs, reach of most farmers. Fertilizer costs per ton ranging by one estimate between US$5,000 and average out to a farmer price of $336 in Nigeria, US$25,000 per hectare, much higher than in Asia $321 in Malawi, $333 in Zambia, and $828 in (quoted in IFPRI 2005a), though a recent study Angola, compared with $227 in the United States by the International Water Management Institute (Eilitta 2006). In the era before adjustment argues that it is possible to design and imple- lending, many African countries relied on ment projects in Africa with unit costs compara- subsidies to get fertilizers to farmers at a reason- ble to those in Asia. able price. With the removal of subsidies, fertil- izer prices have soared. Further, a large part of the area currently under irrigation is low-performing because of poor Lack of access to water also makes farmers maintenance of irrigation schemes, inadequate reluctant to use fertilizers, since their application attention to improving water reliability and without water increases the risk of crop failure control, low use of inputs, and lack of access to (Camara and Heinemann 2006).9 Consequently, market, among other things (Peacock, Ward, and the average intensity of fertilizer use throughout Gambarelli 2007). Africa remains much lower than in other Regions--roughly 9 kilograms per hectare versus Seeds 86 kilograms in Latin America, 104 kilograms in Sustained use of high-yielding seed varieties was South Asia, and 142 kilograms in Southeast Asia the driving force of the Green Revolution in Asia. and has been virtually stagnant during the past In Africa, research has also con- decade.10 tributed to development of improved Organic fertilizers are in varieties for most of the important short supply and Water food and cash crops over the past 20 inorganic fertilizers are The majority of the soils in the continent have years. High-yielding varieties of maize very costly. 1 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Improved seed varieties and new rice varieties (New Before the era of adjustment lending, govern- have been developed but Rice for Africa, or NERICA) that ments in several countries ran a variety of input are not widely used for a are also early maturing, pest credit programs, which led to huge government variety of reasons. and disease resistant, and deficits because of poor repayment rates (Kelly, drought tolerant have been Adesina, and Gordon 2003). During the adjust- heralded as important successes in several areas. ment phase, many of these programs were However, widespread and sustained use of abandoned. In addition, one result of the adjust- improved varieties has been constrained by ment reform agenda was the privatization of limited availability of inputs and credit, in- parastatals responsible for marketing of crops adequate extension, and the wide variation in such as cotton. These parastatals used to meet the required characteristics across multiple agro- credit needs of the farmers for inputs, and their ecological zones. privatization also left a gap that has not been filled. In contrast to conditions in Asia, there are few Credit and rural finance specialized moneylenders in most of Africa Almost all countries in Africa have a large unmet (Collier and Gunning 1997). Moreover, because of demand for agricultural credit and rural finance. the existence of several constraints (box 2.1), new With inadequate financing in the short term, sources of credit for smallholders have been slow farmers find it difficult to buy inputs and seeds. In to develop. the long term, they are unable to invest in land improvement, better tech- However, the difficulty of providing farmers with Most countries in the nology,11 or irrigation develop- access to credit does not mean that there can be Region have high unmet ment. Improving the provision no viable and sustainable institutional modalities demand for credit and of and access to financing for to provide credit to smallholders in Africa's rural finance, so farmers agriculture can meet a range of difficult environment. Recent research from the find it difficult to buy needs and can be critical to the Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest (CGAP inputs and seeds or to success of agricultural develop- 2005) demonstrated that there may be success- invest in longer-term ment programs (World Bank ful microfinance providers for agriculture, improvements. 2005c). though this issue needs further analysis. The Box 2.1: Constraints to Development of Access to Credit and Rural Finance in Africa Supply Side: 6. Lack of usable collateral because of ill-defined property and 1. High, interrelated covariant risks created by variable rain- land-use rights, high cost or lengthy registration proce- fall and lack of irrigation, pests and diseases, price fluctu- dures, and social constraints to foreclosure ations, and constrained smallholder access to inputs, 7. Underdeveloped communication and transportation infra- advice, and markets structure 2. Small size of farms and of individual transactions 8. Weather and price risk (both a supply- and demand-side 3. Dispersed demand for financial services because of low constraint). population densities Demand Side: 4. High transaction cost for service providers because of 9. Low affordability of market interest rates for farmers remoteness of clients and heterogeneity among commu- 10. Insufficient cash-flow planning nities and farms 11. Repayment schedules are often difficult because they are 5. Seasonality of agricultural production leading to lag not adapted to seasonality of the crop cycle between investment needs and expected revenues 12. Weather and price risk. Sources: World Bank 2005a, 2005c, 2005d; study research. 1 6 A F R I C A N AG R I C U LT U R E A N D T H E BA N K CGAP research notes some of the special gies and land management practices There may be viable and features of these providers that can help has proved to be a major constraint in sustainable institutional overcome the challenges noted in box 2.1: de- Africa, and the literature has identified modalities for providing linking repayments to loan use, character-based a number of cases, including cassava, credit under the difficult lending techniques combined with technical sweet potato, millet, and rice, for environment in Africa. criteria in selecting borrowers, providing saving which high-yielding varieties are mechanisms, diversifying portfolio risk, adjust- underutilized or farmers are operating within the ing loan terms, and conditions to accommodate production frontier (Evenson and Gollin 2003; cyclical cash flows, among others. Christiaensen and Demery 2007). Despite the tremendous need, most of the extension Transport infrastructure approaches that have been tried have met with Perhaps the most critical of the remaining limited success. Moreover, a major part of food barriers to market access in Africa is inadequate production is undertaken by women transport infrastructure. Unlike Asia and Latin farmers, and in the past most exten- Most extension America, Africa inherited a highly dispersed and sion systems have not tailored their approaches that have unevenly distributed infrastructure from its extension approaches to women's been tried in Africa have colonial past (IFPRI 2005a). In most African specific needs. had only limited success. countries, less than one-third of domestically produced food enters commercial marketing Price and marketing reform channels beyond the local area (Sasakawa Africa One of the main reasons that price and market Association 2004a). In one indication of the reforms are needed is that the incentives for severity of rural farmer isolation, Hine and Rutter agricultural production are weak. Both price (2000) estimate that for 51 percent of villages in (output and input prices) and nonprice factors Ghana and 60 percent of those in Malawi, the (access to markets, credit, among others) walking distance to the nearest pickup point for determine farmers' incentives to produce. motorized transport services was more than 2 Primarily because of limited access to markets, kilometers; it was over 10 kilometers for 10 because of the transport constraint, the majority percent of Ghanaian villages and 19 percent of of smallholders produce largely for self- Malawian villages. consumption. In areas with reasonable market access, cash crops also become attractive, IEG's recent Transport Sector review (IEG though the possible returns on both food and 2007o) found that transport costs account for cash crops determine the extent to which a 11.5 percent of the total value of imports in farmer produces one over the other. However, Africa, compared with 7.2 percent in Asia and 6.7 several domestic market distortions percent in North America. On the export side, and subsidies in OECD countries have Transport constraints for many countries in Africa, at least 20 percent prevented farmers from getting good limit market access, and of the export costs are directly attributable to returns on crops they market. Market- market distortions reduce transport. For landlocked countries such as ing and other reforms were meant to returns on cash crops. Malawi, the figure can be as high as 55 percent. improve the incentives for farmers by This very seriously weakens the terms of trade reducing domestic market distortions and by for such countries. On the basis of their work on encouraging private traders to substitute for growth, distribution, and poverty in Africa, inefficient state trading companies (as discussed Christiaensen and others (2002) found that further in chapter 5). whether a household has access to infrastructure and urban markets was immensely important in Land governing the growth in household income. Formally codified property rights regimes are still quite rare in Africa, and most land falls under Extension customary law (van den Brink and others 2005), Inadequate farmer access to improved technolo- although the situation varies considerably by 1 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Formal property rights country. Much of the land was developing its agriculture, because countries are rare in the Region, under customary law is consid- such as India already had a critical minimum of and women typically ered state-owned, and as land infrastructure, irrigation, and industrial capacity to have to negotiate through becomes a scarce resource produce fertilizers, among other things, and, with male relatives. with increasing population, the improved seeds that came with the Green outsiders may be able to Revolution and extension, agriculture took off. appropriate the land through misuse of land titling laws. Land is also a key patronage resource Hence, support for agricultural development in to reward political favors, and security of land Africa needs to appreciate the challenges that are tenure can be affected by political decisions specific to Africa. While the broader rural focus (IFPRI 2004b). This can make agricultural devel- of the Bank from the mid-1980s onward was opment a very sensitive political issue. justified, an unintended result was that it led to less focused attention on the need for various Several governments, including those of Ghana activities that are critical to agricultural develop- and Uganda, have sought to address this con- ment in rural space to come together at the same straint through broad recognition of customary time, or at least appear in some optimal rights, but progress has been slow. Although sequence. women typically conduct the majority of the farm work in Africa, they rarely have full rights to land, Development of agriculture in Africa is compli- but must negotiate as secondary claimants cated even further by the risk factor in agricul- through a male relative (Toulmin 2006). ture. For example, increasing the availability of hybrid seeds will not ensure that the seeds are Nature of agricultural development in actually used unless farmers are convinced that Sub-Saharan Africa the increased output would not come at a higher Agricultural development is multifaceted. It risk. Exposure to droughts and weather-related requires coordinated interventions across a range uncertainties affect a farmer's incentives to adopt of activities, both within the high-risk technologies, and they may often forgo Agricultural development sector and in other supportive technologies that would require them to use in Africa requires sectors, to deal with the con- fertilizers that would yield higher outputs, but coordinated straints noted above. More than present higher risk (Dercon and Christiaensen interventions across a any other sector, the develop- 2005). While this would be an important consid- range of activities. ment of agriculture requires the eration in a farmer's decision-making process in activities of various subsectors other Regions as well, the frequent droughts and or other relevant sectors to contribute effectively low irrigation in Africa make the environment in at the same time, or at least in some optimal most areas in the Region riskier. sequence. For example, it is difficult for farmers to buy inputs unless there are functioning credit The Millennium Development Project's Hunger institutions to meet their credit needs. Markets Task Force (UNDP 2005) concluded in 2005 that cannot be accessed if the roads are poor, and the world could meet the MDG of halving farmers cannot know about improved technolo- hunger by 2015. Development of smallholder gies or participate in adaptation if good extension agriculture in Africa is critical to that goal. The is not in place. Soil fertility improvement requires literature shows that with the adoption of not only access to improved improved technologies and modern techniques, With the right inputs, technology, but also improved access to agricultural inputs, and investment in infrastructure, incentives, inputs, including water. infrastructure, rapid growth in agricultural and technologies, rapid incomes is achievable in Africa (Howard and growth in agriculture Several of the challenges in others 1999; Palmer 2004). Smallholder agricul- incomes is possible in Africa today were not major ture, which is the predominant source of liveli- Africa. factors in Asia when that Region hoods in Africa, has proven to be at least as 1 8 A F R I C A N AG R I C U LT U R E A N D T H E BA N K efficient as larger farms when farmers have radically improve African agriculture and a received similar support services and inputs comprehensive set of strategies will be needed (seed, fertilizer, and credit) (IFPRI 2002b). (InterAcademy Council 2004). Most success Sustaining success, however, has often been stories involve measures that address the vulner- problematic (Wiggins 2005). The diverse African ability, volatility, and risk in the sector (Commis- situation also implies that no single solution will sion for Africa 2005). 1 9 Chapter 3 Evaluation Highlights · Agricultural analytical work has fallen short of its potential to inform policy dialogue and lending. · Policy advice associated with Bank- financed adjustments has had far- reaching implications for agricultural development in Africa. · The Bank's limited lending has been fragmented and did not properly rec- ognize the multifaceted and inter- connected nature of agricultural activities. Woman watering a field in Ghana. Photo by Curt Carnemark, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Bank Support for Agriculture and Portfolio Performance T he Bank's activities in support of agricultural development in Sub- Saharan Africa fall into three broad categories: analytical work, policy advice, and lending. Of the three, the analytical work is perhaps the most critical for the diagnosis of issues and the suggestion of possible solutions. It is meant to inform both policy advice and lending. Analytical Work Assurance Group (QAG) indicate that analytical Over the review period, the Bank has produced work for agriculture in general has been of an array of analytical products relevant to agricul- insufficient quantity. However, in keeping with ture in Africa. Some of this work has focused the emphasis on increased analytical work in the broadly on the Region, some on particular Bank's 2003 Rural Strategy (World Bank 2003d) country issues. Some has addressed the whole and recent increased interest in agricultural agriculture sector, some has concentrated on development in the Region, the quantity of subsectors, such as extension. Still others have analytical work has increased in recent years, looked at specific commodities, such as cotton, though it has been spread unevenly across coffee, tobacco, and cashews. Much of the analyt- countries.1 That said, regional and global part- ical work has been produced by the Bank's Africa nerships could augment resources for analytical Region and Agricultural and Rural Development work, particularly in small countries. Department (ARD), but the Bank's Research Department has also done several studies. Since The quality of the available analysis is variable, the Trade Department was created in 2002, there though it has been improving, as noted in QAG has been a considerable increase in the number annual reviews since the late 1990s, when Bank of trade-related analytical studies relevant for management recognized this issue as agriculture. a concern. The agriculture portion of The quantity of multisector analytical work, such as agriculture-related Quality and quantity of analytic work Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs), analytical work in Africa Despite the apparent variety of analysis done on has also been weak.2 One of the has been increasing agriculture in Africa, it is not of sufficient quantity strongest areas of analysis at present recently, but it is or quality. Reviews by ARD and the Bank's Quality appears to be in trade. Much of the unevenly distributed. 2 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A The quality of work in this area has been produced needs, as acknowledged in assessments under- agriculture-related to back the Bank's efforts in lobby- taken by QAG.5 Such findings also emerge from analytical work has been ing for a genuinely pro-development IEG work. For example, reporting on the weak variable but is improving. Doha Round and for eliminating quality of the agriculture strategy note, the OECD agricultural subsidies. Rwanda Country Assistance Evaluation (IEG 2004a, p. 19) notes: Analytical work and policy dialogue and lending The Rwanda program was not unique in this Regardless of the quantity or quality of analytic respect. An internal assessment in the late work in agriculture, however, that work is of 1990s of Bank-wide economic and sector work limited use if it does not adequately influence provides a partial explanation of why analyti- Bank lending or policy dialogue. While the cal work may have received relatively fewer available analytical work emphasizes the resources than lending activities. It noted that importance of agriculture to development in economic and sector work was weakest in Africa, it does not appear to have adequately Africa and in the Latin America and informed the lending and policy dialogue Caribbean Regions and it offers a conclusion relevant to agricultural development in the which applied to the entire Bank. "Finally it is Region. Global reviews (which include Africa) of often unclear what the priority of [economic analytical work done by QAG have also found this and sector work] is within the Bank. Too often shortcoming.3 A recent Quality Assurance Re- task teams feel that their ESW responsibilities view of agriculture-related analytical are secondary to those of preparing lending Agriculture-related work noted the rather low level of operations. As a result, ESW timetables often analytical work appears importance assigned to ARD analytical are the first to be dropped or postponed during to have had limited work in country programs.4 The crunch periods. With staff typically over influence on lending and portfolio review for this study also programmed, ESW tends to get lower priority policy dialogue. found that only about one-third of the and quality can suffer because of this." Project Appraisal Documents noted that the design had been informed by a piece of This also partly explains why few African analytical work. This finding was also supported countries have consistently had analytical work by the staff survey done for this study. More than produced over time. 55 percent of the survey respondents agree that sufficient and rigorous analytical work generally There are four reasons that analytical work does does not inform the design and implementation not appear to have adequately informed Bank of agriculture projects in Africa. lending and policy advice. Even the Bank's most recent trade-related analyt- First, analytical work has been of limited quantity ical work has not had much influence on lending and not easily available, even within the institu- or country dialogue. A recent IEG study (IEG tion, principally because of inadequacies in the 2006a) found that outside observers associated Bank's databases. QAG reviews of analytical work with World Trade Organization negotiations confirm this finding.6 The Bank's database does thought that while the Bank was an important not even have a systematic record of all agricul- player in generating research relating to the tural and rural analytical work produced in Africa. negotiations, the Bank's research did not find In undertaking the Mali country review for this practical application at the country study, for example, it was very difficult to locate Analytical work has not level. agriculture-specific analytical work, and staff in helped to prioritize the Region confirmed that several pieces had not lending based on Analytical work has also not been able been entered in the Bank's database. Further, changing country-specific to help prioritize or sequence lending there are no records in the Bank's databases for needs. according to changing country-specific informal analytical work produced as an input to 2 4 BA N K S U P P O RT F O R AG R I C U LT U R E A N D P O RT F O L I O P E R F O R M A N C E the preparation of a project. In a knowledge- Assessing the policy advice each Limited availability has based institution such as the World Bank, it is country has received over the period hampered the influence of surprising that the record of analytical work is so 1991­2006 is difficult because it is not analytical work, and the poor.7 written down in any document and procedure to ensure that often is part of the Bank-client it informs lending and Second, interviews with Bank staff reveal that the dialogue that accompanies the project policy dialogue is not incorporation of findings from analytical work in preparation process. That process functioning well. lending and policy dialogue is not functioning itself is often poorly documented. As well. While Decision Meetings are supposed to will be seen in chapter 5, however, some of the be the forum to ensure that analytical findings Bank's advice, such as that associated with are incorporated in project design, requiring at structural adjustment reform, has had far- least some peer reviewers to explicitly comment reaching implications for agricultural develop- on the extent to which a project proposal ment in African countries. But results have fallen responds to available internal and external short of expectations. analytical findings might help to strengthen the linkage. Another option may be to institute a More recently, as a part of NEPAD, the The Bank's organization more formal record, similar to the IEG/Bank Bank has provided advisory services for has inhibited interaction management tabulation of the Management trade and policy harmonization and to across sectors. Action Record or some other formalization. The help to strengthen the capacity of incorporation of findings from analytical work African Regional and subregional economic com- currently depends too much on individual staff munities (Kritzinger-van Niekerk and Houdart or peer reviewer interests and shifting country or 2005). thematic institutional memory. Lending Third, the sectoral organization of the Bank has impeded interaction among staff across sectors. As Overall amounts and trends a result, good quality analytical work produced in During fiscal 1991­2006, the Bank supported 262 other relevant sectors, such as trade and transport, projects with agriculture components in Africa. is also not adequately considered in informing Several of them have been relatively small parts agricultural lending. QAG reports on analytical of wider Bank-supported rural activities. Hence, work confirm this finding.8 Further, internal though the total amount invested in projects reviews note that the Bank rarely builds on analyt- with agricultural components over the period ical work produced outside the institution. has been $14.31 billion (about 28 percent of total lending of $50.49 billion to the Region), the Fourth, the technical quality of analytical work in lending for agriculture itself has only been about agriculture appears to have suffered from a $4.5 billion, 32 percent of $14.31 (table D.1, decline in technical skills within the institution appendix D). (discussed further in chapter 4). Bank staff have tried to compensate for this skill shortage by Of the total agricultural lending of $4.5 billion to hiring outside experts and using cooperative Africa, only $2.8 billion (8 percent of the total arrangements with organizations such as the Bank investment lending to Africa; see table D.1, Food and Agriculture Organization, but coordi- appendix D) has been investment lending and nation and timely, quality input have been issues. $1.72 billion has been structural adjustment or development policy lending (DPL).9 Of the Policy Advice investment lending, $247.2 million has Over the past half-century, developing countries been for emergency recovery. As a Over 1991­2006 the Bank have looked to the World Bank not only for result, the amount of Bank funds truly supported 262 projects financial support but also for policy advice to "invested" for development of the with agricultural promote economic and social development. African agriculture sector amounts to components in Africa. 2 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A On average, Bank an average of $67.6 million per country in the Bank-wide IEG study of agriculture investment lending in of the countries that have had any scheduled for completion in fiscal 2009. agriculture has only been agriculture investment from the Bank $67.6 million per country over the 15-year period. This is only a The Bank's agriculture lending (investment and over the last 15 years. little more than the size of an average DPLs) to Africa declined from $419 million in loan for an agricultural intervention in fiscal 1991 to a low of $123 million in 2000 (see Africa over the period 1991­2006 ($55.5 million). table D.3, appendix D for details of the trend in Furthermore, that limited lending has been lending). This decline was part of a pervasive scattered over numerous activities--and thus has trend among donors. In absolute terms, as noted been scarcely enough to have sustained impact. in chapter 2, assistance provided to African agriculture from both bilateral and multilateral Analysts argue that Bank support for agricultural donors declined steadily over the 1990s (table development needs to be seen in perspective. E.1, appendix E). Several reasons are given in the First, Bank support is often a small part of a larger literature for this decline, including the high multidonor effort to develop the agriculture failure rate of many agriculture projects, urban sector. While this may be true, it is important to bias, neglect of agriculture by governments, see this in the context of the overall decline in political instability, and a shift in donor priorities lending to agriculture over most of the study toward rural development more widely, among period from the entire donor community and the others (IFPRI 1993; OECD 2001; World Bank weaknesses in donor coordination, as demon- 2002a; DFID 2004). strated in chapter 2. Second, the Bank has contributed to global and regional programs in Regardless of the reason for the shift, it has Africa that supplement resources for agricultural meant not only that resources flowing to the development. But there are no assessments of sector were inadequate, but also that this how these programs supplement country-level downward trend became self-reinforcing. As the interventions. This dimension will be addressed decline in lending continued, so too did the decline in recognition within countries that agriculture was central to development in Figure 3.1: Sectoral Distribution of Investment Africa. Lending in Africa, Fiscal 1991­2006 The success of the Green Revolution [in Asia] Agriculture also required political support and a favorable Water, sanitation, 8% and flood protection macroeconomic policy environment. Foreign 10% aid was helpful in this regard. In the sixties, the Education governments of most developing countries were 9% largely urban oriented. Agriculture was seen as Transportation a holding ground, while the "real investment" 19% in development was thought to take place in the Energy and mining urban, large-scale industrial sector. Foreign 13% aid drew attention to the critical importance of production agriculture in improving the Finance welfare of society. Foreign aid also strengthened Law and justice; 3% public administration the hands of national leaders, who recognized 19% the critical importance of agriculture and of Health and other social services solving the food bottleneck in Asia. (Mellor 16% Information and communications Industry and trade 1998, p. 58.) 1% 2% Source: World Bank data. Bank lending for agriculture (investment and DPL) in Africa picked up beginning in fiscal 2001 2 6 BA N K S U P P O RT F O R AG R I C U LT U R E A N D P O RT F O L I O P E R F O R M A N C E and increased sharply in fiscal 2006 to $685 constrain agricultural development-- Lending declines through million, up from $295 million in 2005. Presum- credit, seeds, tenure, research, and the 1990s led to a decline ably this was partly because of the reinvigoration extension, among others. An examina- in recognition of of the Bank's rural programs, as outlined in a tion of the existing categorization agriculture's importance new agriculture and rural development strategy shows that a "general" category covers to Africa. in 2003 (World Bank 2003d). It was probably also about 29 percent of overall dedicated partly the result of the realization in the interna- lending to agriculture in Africa during fiscal tional community that Africa was lagging behind 1991­2006 (figure D.4, appendix D). and that the agriculture sector is critical to promoting growth and poverty alleviation in the Based on the categorization in the Bank databases do not Region. Bank's database, the second-largest give an accurate picture amount of lending over the review of the activities supported Major subsectors and country direction period has been for agricultural by the Bank--the Bank databases do not provide a comprehensive research and extension (together "general" category picture of the various activities in the agriculture accounting for 23 percent), followed accounts for the largest sector that have received its support. Subsector by marketing and trade (14 percent). share. coding that is expected to provide information Irrigation and drainage together on these activities is presented in box 3.1. The received only 7 percent of total agriculture Bank's database has eight agriculture subsectors, lending in Africa, although it has been the largest but these are insufficient to determine the level subsector within the agriculture sector Bank- of support for some critical activities that wide (World Bank 2005e). A recent IEG study of Box 3.1: Bank's Coding System and Inadequate Reflection of Important Agricultural Activities The Bank's categorization system allows task teams to designate is lost. ARD has repeatedly pointed out these problems in the cod- up to five subsector codes per project. If project activities cover ing system. more than five subsectors, they are expected to use the general The coding system restricts the information available about how category. Hence, though the general category is a convenient much support the Bank is providing to activities that seek to re- way to manage the data, information on the details of a large lieve the critical constraints on agriculture in Africa. share of the lending for agriculture as well as for other sectors Areas Critical to Development of Bank Subsector Codes for Agriculture Agriculture in Africa Agriculture extension and research (AB) Access to marketsa Crops (AH) Irrigation Irrigation and drainage (AI) Drainage Bank's database subsumes these in Animal production (AJ) Research different subsector and sector codes.d Forestry (AT) Extension It is difficult to tell how General agriculture/fishing/forestry (AZ) Creditb much lending is actually going Agriculture marketing and trade (YA) Seeds to these activities. Agro-industry (YB) Incentives for agricultural developmentc Land tenure a. Roads, which provide access to markets, are coded outside agriculture. b. Agriculture credit is coded under AZ (above) or under micro- and small and medium-size enterprise finance (FE). c. Restructuring of Ministry of Agriculture is coded under central government administration (BC). d. For example, irrigation and draininge are clustered, as are research and extension. Actual amounts for individual activities cannot be distinguished. 2 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A water management in agriculture (IEG 2006g) been a relatively small part of wider rural activi- showed that only 3 percent of total Bank ties. To assess the performance of agriculture commitments to irrigation and drainage between investments, IEG looked only at closed projects 1994 and 2004 went to Africa. in the Africa portfolio in which the agriculture investment was 50 percent or more of the The largest share of agricultural lending to Africa lending amount. IEG data were used to examine during fiscal 1991­2006 went to Tanzania (about how those projects did in comparison with (a) 10 percent), followed by Côte-d'Ivoire Africa projects without agriculture components Not 1 country among the and Uganda. Some African countries approved in the same period and (b) projects in top 10 has received (Botswana, Cape Verde, Comoros) which the agriculture investment was 50 percent consistent and have had no agricultural lending over or more from other Regions and that were simultaneous support for the period. For several others (such approved in the same period (figure 3.2). all critical subsectors. as Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea Bissau, Lesotho, Mo- The review found that over fiscal 1991­2006, zambique, Republic of Congo, and Sierra Leone), about 60 percent of the closed agriculture invest- the actual amount of agricultural lending has ment projects in Africa were rated satisfactory on been very small. outcome. This rating was below the satisfactory outcome rating of 65 percent for the non-agricul- Not 1 country among the top 10 has received ture component projects in the Region. It was consistent and simultaneous support across all also below the 73 percent satisfactory rating for critical subsectors identified earlier in this report agriculture investments in other Regions (tables (table D.4, appendix D). The Country Assistance D.5, D.6, and D.7, appendix D). Strategy (CAS) review done for this study also found that discussion of agricultural issues was The data show some improvement in outcome rarely accompanied by a holistic assessment of ratings since 2000, though the number of closed the agriculture sector or an explicit indication agriculture investment operations (with an of how agricultural priorities would be linked agricultural component greater than 50 percent) to budgets. Only 1 of the 31 CASs reviewed is too small to draw a strong conclusion (table (Ethiopia 1995) comes close to recognizing the D.8, appendix D). integrated nature of relevant agricultural activi- ties to promote agricultural development. The performance of the Africa portfolio for both agriculture and non-agriculture is worse than in Nearly 83 percent of the respondents to the IEG other Regions, although that is hardly surprising, staff survey agreed that Africa country directors since the quality of the Africa portfolio has lagged do not sufficiently consider the complex and behind other Regions for years (World Bank multisectoral nature of agriculture activities in 2004a). But it also suggests that there is more allocating IDA funds among sectors. That such a than just the nature of agriculture projects that multifaceted and cohesive approach toward makes it difficult to achieve satisfactory agriculture is lacking is one factor. Another is that outcomes in the Region. The literature review, the Bank's data systems do not provide an the findings of the country-level agriculture accurate picture of how much has gone into sector reviews, as well as past IEG reviews various critical activities. This limits the extent to indicate that political economy, instability, and which these activities can be meaningfully weak institutional capacity have negatively coordinated. influenced the outcome of projects in the Region The outcome rating of (see chapter 4). agriculture investment Overall Performance of projects has been below Agriculture Projects Given the wide variation in agricultural average, but has As previously noted, in many projects conditions across countries, this review also improved since 2000. the amount invested in agriculture has compared the performance of Bank projects in 2 8 BA N K S U P P O RT F O R AG R I C U LT U R E A N D P O RT F O L I O P E R F O R M A N C E Figure 3.2: Outcome and Sustainability Ratings Outcome Sustainability 100 100 79% 77% 80 73% 65% 80 63% tn 60% 60 tn 60 53% cer cer 40% 40 40 Pe Pe 20 20 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa Other Regions Sub-Saharan Africa Other Regions Investment lending (50% or more to agriculture) Investment lending, non-agriculture Source: IEG data. Note: These ratings are for the universe of agriculture and non-agriculture projects, and hence significance tests were not done. But some analysts note that even when presenting re- sults for the universe, it may be informative to apply a statistical significance test to know whether Bank performance or external factors have meaningfully changed over time. The ar- gument made is that satisfactory or unsatisfactory performance of a particular project is partly the product of random or unpredictable factors, and the statistical test would tells us whether the change between years is more than we would expect from random variation, if the underlying chance of each project's satisfactory performance was the same as the mean rate for the year. countries with more favorable agricultural Figure 3.3: Performance of Bank Projects with conditions against those where conditions are Greater than 50 Percent Agricultural Component less favorable. Surprisingly, as figure 3.3 shows, Bank projects in countries with less favorable 100 81% agricultural conditions have done better than 80 those in countries with more favorable tn 50% 60 44% conditions, although further analysis, possibly cer 39% 40 Pe with field work, should be done on this issue in 20 the context of the larger IEG agriculture study, 0 because the number of closed projects in Outcome (percent satisfactory) Sustainability (percent likely) countries with less favorable conditions is small. Countries with less Countries with more However, the difference in ratings suggests that favorable agricultural conditions favorable agricultural conditions it is more than factor endowments that are a Source: IEG data. challenge for agricultural development in Africa. QAG's 2006 Annual Review of Portfolio Perfor- supervision ratings. An ARD discussion paper on mance also found that the low satisfactory agriculture and pro-poor growth notes that outcome ratings in the Africa Region reflect both "while achieving agriculturally led growth faces country factors outside of the Bank's control and several key constraints, many of these constraints Bank factors, including a high percentage of (such as poor infrastructure and underdeveloped fragile states with difficult conditions outside the or dysfunctional markets) are also faced by the Bank's control and lower quality-at-entry and economy as a whole" (World Bank 2005k, p. 45). 2 9 Chapter 4 Evaluation Highlights · The Bank's internal institutional en- vironment has not been supportive of agricultural development. · While political commitment in client countries appears stronger now than in the past, overall in-country capacity to support agricultural de- velopment is weak and budgetary resources to support agricultural development activities are scarce. · Research capacity exists, but sus- taining and strengthening activities is a challenge. Boy hand-irrigating field in Burkina Faso. Photo by Curt Carnemark, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Key Factors of Performance Internal (Bank) Factors F our factors related to the internal organization of the Bank have influ- enced its ability to support the development of agriculture in Africa. These are: relations between country and sector units, relations between and within sector units, the technical capacity of the staff in the institution, and the system for monitoring and evaluation of Bank activities. Relations between country and sector units (IEG 2007k), the strategies for the country and The management structure of the Bank distrib- the list of projects financed by the Bank gave the utes accountability and responsibility for the impression of having been developed independ- design and implementation of operations ently, and then forced together afterwards. A between country and sector staff. Under this QAG review seems to confirm this finding when "matrix management," the sector units deliver it notes that sector studies are frequently lending and analytical work, but the country undertaken to justify operations in advanced management units, led by the country directors, stages of preparation, instead of preceding such make the decisions about the allocation of preparation efforts (QAG 2004). resources among competing sector units in their countries. Country-level reviews carried out as a part of this study have also noted this problem: the Kenya Task managers of agriculture projects in the review found that in several of the CASs for that Africa Region interviewed as a part of this study country, except for the most recent one, noted that there were no well-defined proce- the logical connection between the dures to ensure synergy between the work of strategy and the lending program in The agriculture sector country and sector units, and as a result, the agriculture was not well articulated. For seems to have been agriculture sector was adversely affected. While it example, in the 1998 CAS, while the El adversely affected by the can be argued that the CAS process is intended Niño Emergency Project, the roads matrix management to ensure synergy, the link between the prepara- project, and another agricultural sector system. tion of the CAS and agriculture sector lending investment project were not necessar- and nonlending activities was found to be weak ily incompatible with the country strategy and the by this review. As noted by a recent IEG assess- CAS objectives, it was not evident that these three ment of three agriculture projects in Tanzania choices had been subjected to any rigorous 3 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A screening process for prioritization. There was no Building Project notes the tendency to do such evidence of dropped options. There was a similar complex projects in small countries, because finding on Cameroon. each project may be the only opportunity to work in a sector for years. A similar internal CASs rarely included a This review found further evidence of review of the Mauritania Financial and Private holistic assessment of the lack of synergy between the country Sector Capacity Project (fiscal 1995), which had agriculture sector or and sector units in its CAS analysis. As an agricultural component, also found that the linked sector priorities to already seen in chapter 3, the CAS project was trying to do too much in a country budget. review done for this study found the with weak administration. The review expressed 1995 Ethiopia CAS to be the closest to concern that the project was trying to tackle best practice regarding recognition of the interre- judicial reform, the mining code, fisheries lated nature of agricultural development. That resource research, the chamber of commerce, CAS recognized that the National Fertilizer Project and banking supervision--all in one operation. (1995) and the Seed System Development Project (1995) were designed to improve agricultural A recent ARD report (World Bank 2005g) on productivity and food security through extended interviews with country directors, the majority of use of improved seeds and fertilizer, which were whom were in Africa, found that their interest in recognized as the two most critical inputs in supporting agriculture projects was not very enhancing yields. Yet there was a complete lack of high, since such projects were more time- coordination between the two projects. It seems consuming, riskier, and more expensive to the CAS logic did not influence the preparation design and implement. The projects were also and implementation of those projects. It is thus likely to be more contentious than those in other not surprising that the Africa-specific data on sectors, especially when they involved forestry or which the fiscal 2003 and 2004 ARD irrigation infrastructure. Internal constraints retrospectives of the CASs were based encourage the design of found that the majority of the CASs (57 Another recent ARD document (World Bank complex projects covering and 63 percent, respectively) were 2005i) acknowledges the complex nature of many activities. unsatisfactory in the size and composi- agriculture projects and their high preparation tion of their rural lending and nonlend- costs. Data on project preparation costs from the ing programs (extracted from communication Bank's databases confirms that agriculture with ARD, December 12, 2006). interventions in Africa are more expensive than projects in other sectors. Agriculture projects The resources allocated to a sector in a country were also found to be riskier (see appendix M). program depend on two factors: the country Nearly 63 percent of respondents to the IEG staff unit's conviction that a particular survey agreed that supervision and project Bank client demand for sector is worth supporting and preparation costs to the Bank for agriculture agriculture lending has demand for investment in the sector projects are significantly higher than for projects not been strong. from the country. The envelope of in other sectors in the Africa Region. Some available IDA resources is also a country directors also found that the rural constraint, because it defines the upper limit of corporate strategy (Reaching the Rural Poor, resources that can be distributed among sectors. World Bank 2003d) missed the opportunity to Usually no more than one project is supported in be truly operational (World Bank 2005g). The a sector in a particular year. This sometimes perception of the country directors and staff was results in complex project designs, because it reinforced by the poor performance of agricul- creates an incentive for staff to cover as many ture projects in the 1990s and appears to have activities as possible in a given project. contributed to the Bank moving away from support for agriculture. An internal review of the quality of supervision for the Lesotho Agricultural Policy and Capacity Until very recently, Bank client demand for agricul- 3 4 K E Y FAC TO RS O F P E R F O R M A N C E tural lending has not been strong. In a 2003 transport projects to ensure that a Bank agricul- quarterly report to senior management, the tural intervention attempting to increase agricul- director of ARD noted that many country directors ture productivity in a particular area is also able have stated that the decline in purely agricultural to ensure market access for the increased crop investment lending reflects the demand of production. borrowers for other kinds of support from the Bank, notably adjustment support, which has Similar disconnects are seen in the The Bank's sectoral increased substantially in the Region, as well as financial sector. Respondents to the organization handicaps the change in agriculture projects to embrace a IEG survey noted that financial sector cross-sector coordination. more community-driven focus. Where there is staff had been of little assistance in support for large volumes of investment lending, coming up with a realistic strategy for increasing it is often multisectoral. In the past two years there access to financial services to support agricul- has been renewed interest in gaining Bank tural sector growth. support for agricultural development among countries in Africa, and this is reflected in the Similarly, agricultural education in universities is consequent increase in lending (see chapter 3). under the education sector; the agriculture sector does not have the main responsibility for Relations between and within sector units it. Hence, there is little evidence of attempts to IEG's recent evaluation of community-based and link support for technical education in agricul- community-driven development approaches ture with the needs of the agriculture sector. (IEG 2005a) has drawn attention to ways that the More than 80 percent of the survey respondents sectoral organization of the Bank handicaps agreed that coordination between Bank staff in coordination across teams working in different agriculture and in other sectors in the Africa sectors. IEG's 2006 Annual Review of Develop- Region is not good. ment Effectiveness (IEG 2006i) also notes that the Bank's matrix management structure does Even within a country sector program, Eighty percent of staff not encourage staff to work across sectoral there can be little coordination survey respondents said boundaries or to address cross-sectoral issues. between projects. IEG's project assess- that intersectoral Agriculture is more susceptible to this problem ment report on the Seed System coordination was not than any other sector by virtue of its intercon- Development and the National Fer- good. nected and multifaceted nature. As already seen, tilizer Projects in Ethiopia (both outcomes in the sector are dependent not only approved in June 1995) found that a feature of on various agriculture-related activities--such the two projects was a lack of interlinkages and as extension, credit, and seeds--coming to- coordination in conceptualization, design, and gether, but also on activities of sectors such as implementation and among all parties involved transport contributing effectively to agricultural (IEG 2007a, 2007b). development. Despite going to the Bank's Board of Directors One example of this involves the way agriculture on the same date, each of the appraisal reports interacts with the transport sector. Respondents makes only minimal reference to the other to an open-ended question in the IEG staff project. Neither report considered how the two survey identified lack of rural infrastructure as a projects would harmonize their activities and fundamental constraint to the development of there was little discussion of how they would agriculture. Among the reasons noted for this engage with other activities--such as agricultural neglect was the expectation of agriculture staff extension, research, and credit--that that rural roads would be covered by staff in the would be needed to ensure that the Even within a country's transport sector. However, since there is little project activities increased agricul- sector program, coordination across sectors, not much is done to tural productivity. The country review coordination may be strategically develop rural roads in Bank for Cameroon, drawing on earlier IEG poor. 3 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A work in the forest sector of that country (Essama- given to technical aspects in components of Nssah and Gockowski 2000), also found that an agriculture projects. To do this, the Bank understanding of the multifaceted and intercon- maintained a strong cadre of technical staff who nected nature of agriculture and the major role came into the Bank in mid- to late career, and that low productivity in the sector has played in whose quality of support was acknowledged by deforestation was missing from the country the client countries and the world at large (World program. Bank 1991a). The major reorganization of the Bank in 1987 significantly reduced the number of How can knowledge about the interconnected agriculture technical staff in the Bank.1 This was nature of agricultural interventions best inform recognized as an issue by a study that examined the design of future agriculture projects? A aid to African agriculture in the late 1980s (World sectorwide approach, such as that used in the Bank 1991b). Zambia Agriculture Sector Investment Program, may not necessarily be the best answer if it leads A decade after the first reorganization, after the to the design of complex projects. This may Bank was reorganized again, along matrix lines, challenge limited country capacity. Past donor the availability of technical staff eroded further. procedures have not been compatible with Analysis of data from the Bank's Human pooling resources, as was attempted initially in Resources Department found a considerable the Zambia intervention. decline since 1997 in the number of technical staff (irrigation engineers and specialists in soils, Once the overall menu of activities has been extension, livestock, and other areas) mapped to identified, separate interventions can also be ARD in the Africa Region. In 1997 there were 40 undertaken, although given the sectoral organi- technical experts mapped to ARD in Africa, but in zation of the Bank, they present a coordination 2006 there were only 17 (appendix G).2 More challenge within the institution. The realization than 67 percent of the respondents to the IEG that agricultural development requires a multi- staff survey agreed that the Africa Region does not faceted and coordinated approach has to flow have an adequate level of technical staff skills to through the different Bank teams working on support implementation of agriculture projects. different projects in one country. The decline in the Bank's technical capacity The broadening of the Beyond the Bank, as seen in chapter happened partly because of the broadening of rural agenda has been 2, when other donors are involved in the rural agenda discussed in chapter 2. While accompanied by reduced the overall task of supporting agricul- social development, broad-based rural develop- technical capacity in tural development, donor coordina- ment, and other such concerns are important agriculture. tion presents challenges in terms of issues in rural space, the emphasis on those new agreeing on strategy and priorities. areas in rural strategies has resulted in a staff Programmatic and budgetary support lending, of generalists rather than one of agricultural now on the increase in Africa, seem likely to specialists. Human Resources data show that make coordination more difficult. This is because staff related to the newer agenda have increased the allocation of those funds rests with sector from about 51 percent of staff working in ARD in ministries, which are in most cases far less 1997 to 71 percent in 2006. With such limited cooperative than the Bank's sector units. technical capacity in ARD, it has become difficult for the Bank to provide substantive direction and Technical capacity within the Bank advice to countries on technical agricultural Major reorganizations in Two major reorganizations in the Bank issues, especially since government sector staff the Bank have in the past 20 years have significantly with which the Bank interacts are still largely significantly reduced its reduced the Bank's technical capacity technical specialists. About 65 percent of the technical capacity in to support agriculture. In the 1960s respondents to the IEG staff survey agreed or agriculture. and 1970s, considerable attention was strongly agreed that the strategic approach by 3 6 K E Y FAC TO RS O F P E R F O R M A N C E the Bank of focusing on rural development more investment projects in the sample of The loss of technical broadly has diluted attention to technical issues 71 (see appendix A for how the 54 capacity has affected the in agriculture lending in Africa. projects were selected) found that 73 quality of policy percent of projects since 1996 have dialogue. Decentralization also appears to have affected had agriculture-related indicators, the Bank's capacity to support agricultural compared with 27 percent during the period development.3 The decentralization of Bank staff before 1996. Of all the projects that had indica- in the mid-1990s led to the increased hiring of tors, most included output indicators, though local staff in the Bank's country offices. The the number of outcome and impact indicators decentralization improved understanding of has increased since 1996. country issues and reduced staff costs. While both are desirable goals, the tradeoff for this has The types of output and outcome indicators in been the reduced influence of internationally African agriculture projects vary widely, presum- recruited staff with broad experience and ably reflecting the wide variation in project knowledge of international good practices. objectives and components. Project documents usually do not say how the indicators were The decline in technical capacity appears to have selected, and the indicators listed are often not affected the quality of the policy dialogue on thoroughly defined. Though ARD is currently agriculture with government ministries. More preparing guidance for designing indicators, no than 66 percent of the respondents to the IEG such guidance has existed up to now. staff survey agreed that the policy dialogue bearing on rural development in the Africa Even where there are indicators, the information Region does not adequately address technical reported in the completion reports is often issues in agricultural productivity (such as soil of limited value for answering fundamental fertility, land management, land tenure, irriga- outcome and impact questions, such tion, and improved seeds). as who benefited, the development of The percentage of which crops received support and agriculture projects with The decline in capacity also has affected the how, and what gains can be attributed agriculture-related quality of the agriculture lending program. Many to the Bank project, among others. An indicators has grown country directors interviewed by ARD cited input internal ARD review in 2004 con- considerably since the and output marketing as areas where there were firmed this finding. late 1990s. major problems in their countries, but they found that Bank staff were unable to help resolve A recent (February 2006) supervision mission for these problems (World Bank 2005g). Other the Kenya Arid Lands Resource Management country directors noted that they could not get Project Phase II noted weaknesses in reporting, the skill mix they needed from rural staff for commenting that the reporting is overwhelm- products such as Poverty Reduction Strategy ingly on activities undertaken, and not on their Credits (PRSCs) and cited lack of attention by impact. IEG's assessment of the first Kenya Arid rural staff at the time of CAS formulation as a Lands Resource Management Project (IEG 2005b) reason for smaller rural programs (World Bank had also found that only 5 of 19 indicators were 2005g). impact indicators. In that report, IEG concluded that there could have been better assessment of Monitoring and evaluation qualitative aspects related to the responsiveness The Bank requires that each project approved of district institutions and of poverty-focused have a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system. activities, and whether benefits were Since January 1996, when Operations Policy and being captured by the elite. Where there are Country Services (OPCS) provided guidance to indicators, however, the staff on preparing indicators, most projects have Further, where there were indicators, information they provide given increased attention to M&E. A review of 54 and they were relevant, reporting was is often of limited value. 3 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A limited, often due to weak capacity in the cially viable smallholders. There are distinct country or because of weak or inadequate Bank differences in smallholder households' assets, supervision. Seventy-two percent of the comple- human capital, income generating potential, tion reports reviewed mentioned problems with and livelihood strategies. M&E that limited the ICR (Implementation Completion Report) team's ability to With the greater interest in promoting nontradi- The projects reviewed fully assess the project's outcome or tional export crops and with the increasing stan- also tended to treat impact. As a result, learning and scope dards demanded by importers, understanding beneficiaries as for designing realistic follow-on inter- smallholder capacity will become even more undifferentiated groups. ventions is limited. important. Weakness in the M&E of agriculture projects in There is also a gender dimension to the issue of Africa has also been identified by an internal ARD farmer profiles. Nearly 50 percent of food study and by QAG. While weak M&E is not production in Africa is undertaken by women unique to the agriculture sector, since the farmers, and the challenges they face in access to outcomes of agriculture interventions are land, credit, and extension are different from influenced by interventions in other sectors and those of their male counterparts. However, the by natural and other factors, it is critical that portfolio review found that, in most cases, when information on the Bank's activities be accurate. a farmer is mentioned in project documents, it is The review of project completion reports found difficult to tell whether a male or female farmer is several cases where weak M&E kept the ICR team being discussed. Only 2 of the 71 documents from separating the project's contribution to the reviewed clearly link gender to the project final outcome from external factors (such as objectives, include gender-specific subcompo- weather events) or other projects that were nents, and have indicators to measure the implemented in the same period with similar project's impact on women. objectives. The literature also shows that changes in the Though nearly half of Another measurement issue common division of labor occur over time for several food production in the to the projects reviewed is the reasons (Doss 1999). Men may move into activi- Region is by women and tendency to treat beneficiaries as ties that are traditionally the province of women issues affecting them are undifferentiated groups. Few project when new opportunities arise and activities different, when a farmer documents provide a profile of the previously done by women become more produc- is mentioned in project farmers that are expected to benefit. tive or profitable (Doss 1999). This suggests the documents it is difficult Instead, the typical document refers to need for a more complete profile of the intended to tell whether a male or beneficiaries in general terms such as beneficiary households to effectively design Bank female farmer is being farmers, stakeholders, or smallhold- interventions that target farmers' needs and to discussed. ers. It is important to differentiate report on variation in the impact of interventions among various farmer categories, as on different beneficiaries. noted in recent sector work in Zambia (World Bank 2007e). On the potential to commercialize The recent emphasis on client-responsive smallholders, the report says (pp. 7­8): approaches to agricultural development requires even greater attention to the details of farm When considering the potential for smallholder households. Project teams might argue that commercialization, it is important to recognize these details may be included in beneficiary that Zambian smallholders are not a homoge- surveys and other documents prepared for such neous group of farmers. Understanding the interventions. However, those documents are heterogeneity of Zambia's rural households and not readily available, and since the information is their different potential as agricultural produc- not reported at the completion phase, it is not ers is critical to designing strategies for commer- clear how much the information they contain 3 8 K E Y FAC TO RS O F P E R F O R M A N C E contributes to learning or is a factor in assessing from Asia's agricultural development Political will and the Bank's contribution. experience is the necessity for political commitment for will at the highest levels. It translates agricultural development The portfolio review also found that 40 percent directly into favorable policy environ- appear to be growing in of the closed projects reported information on ments and budget allocations to Africa. yield change through indicators, but the yields agricultural institutions and related for each crop were reported in aggregate. This infrastructure (IFPRI 2004b). With NEPAD and makes it impossible to discern differences CAADP there now appears to be political commit- among specific types of farming, production ment among African governments to support the systems, or agro-ecological zones. In addition, development of their agriculture sectors. IEG's the project information did not explain the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) review criteria used to select the crops that were (IEG 2003b) also found that a large majority of reported. In many cases, specific crops are also PRSPs reviewed (94 percent) identified agricul- noted in the economic analysis section of project tural issues as central to the fight against poverty. documents, but as with yield indictors, it is not African governments, many allocating less than 1 clear whether these are the only crops supported percent of their budget to agriculture, agreed in by the project or why they were selected for the July 2003 at the Africa Union Summit to allocate at calculation of economic rate of return. This least 10 percent of national budgetary resources review concurs with the conclusion of an internal for implementation of policies and programs to ARD review carried out in 2004, which noted that support agricultural growth within five years. It until the Bank addresses the insufficient use of remains to be seen whether the governments will outcome-oriented indicators, inadequate M&E, be able to meet this commitment. and reporting tools that are not designed to facilitate the description of project results, it is Political commitment to develop agriculture was unlikely that the Bank will be able to effectively weak early in the post-independence era, as track the results of its interventions in the Africa reflected in the budget support and the policy Region in a meaningful way. environment for the sector. Though there were variations in policies across countries, agricul- Country Factors ture generally faced heavy taxation, and mo- Without political will and commitment and nopolistic parastatal marketing boards often capacity in the countries it supports, the Bank's fixed producer prices below market levels. activities on behalf of agricultural development are unlikely to be effective. Since there are However, governments also transferred resources potentially 47 borrower countries in the Region, through input and credit subsidies. As a result, it would be difficult to address country-specific some analysts have argued that the governments issues. Instead, this section focuses on two in Africa followed a contradictory strategy, extract- broad factors across countries. These are critical ing surplus and transferring resources at the same aspects of the wider issue of governance, which time. Such an approach allowed the government evaluation findings and the literature indicate to meet the needs of the smallholders and supply have affected the development of agriculture in cheap food for the urban population. But the Africa.4 While political will and commitment and strategy was fiscally unsustainable and did not stability are less amenable to outside influence, contribute to development of the agriculture the Bank can help build government capacity to sector. formulate and implement sound policies through training and technical assistance Then, in the mid-1980s, African countries were programs. faced with severe crises--alarming impoverish- ment, food shortages, low levels of literacy and Political will and commitment health, a fall in commodity prices, and a stifling Among the most important lessons for Africa rise in the debt burden (IEG 1998a). Agricultural 3 9 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A performance declined as the area under culti- changes and how to enhance it. The govern- vation expanded and the best lands were ment made little effort to manage the political exhausted. What followed was an era of structural fallout that should have been quite predictable adjustment reforms when, under pressure from ex ante. And the World Bank did not sufficiently the Bank and the IMF, several governments appreciate the ineffectiveness of buying reform undertook major reforms. through aid-cum-conditionality. In all these respects, Mozambican cashews provide an Political commitment for both the sector reforms illuminating case study of the misfortunes that and agricultural development was often weak have befallen the reforms that African during the structural adjustment period. Many countries undertook in the last couple of government decision makers did not accept the decades. premise of the reforms and did not trust the working of the markets (Jayne and others 1999). The lack of initial enthusiasm for policy reform Ministries of agriculture did not support a by African leaders probably reflected doubts reduction in their functions, preferring to retain about how responsive the economy would be to budgets and authority even where they or the these reforms (Jayne and others 1997). Hence, central government made verbal commitments reforms were often undertaken because they to liberalization (Foster and others 2001). Civil were a condition of a Bank loan. The agriculture society organizations often opposed the reforms, sector review for Kenya found that an important arguing that they adversely affected the poor, lesson from the experience of the Agricultural and some expressed concern over losing sources Sector Management, Parastatal Reform, and of public revenue because of the reforms Economic and Public Sector Reform Projects was (Kherallah and others 2002). that relying largely on conditionality did not work, and that mechanisms were needed for In Senegal, for example, the government Bank-client communication and greater consul- struggled to maintain control over the process- tation with politicians and civil society. ing and marketing of groundnuts, its primary generator of export earnings (IFPRI 2000). In A review of completion reports of structural Mozambique, an IEG project assessment (IEG adjustment and investment operations in several 2002a) found that it was widely countries points to a number of manifestations That political believed in the country that a Bank- of weak political commitment--inadequate pro- commitment was weak is supported reform program to liberal- vision of counterpart funds for projects, delay obvious in many ways. ize the cashew sector "killed" the in passing important regulations and in disman- economically viable cashew process- tling parastatals, inconsistent policy directives, ing industry. While the findings of the Bank and and delay in adoption of policies, among others. the literature differ on this issue, and while there A review of QAG's supervision assessments of is recent evidence of increasing production using agriculture projects confirmed that weak govern- intermediate technologies, the reform process ment commitment was a significant problem itself clearly contributed to poor relations during Bank supervision. In 56 percent of the between the Bank and the government. Overall, closed projects where borrower performance this appears to be a case of Bank conditions was rated unsatisfactory at project completion, being pushed too far when a government was weak political commitment was a factor (see not convinced or committed. A National Bureau box 4.1). of Economic Research paper (NBER 2002, p. 28) argues: Weak commitment has contributed to under- funding of critical research and extension The reforms took little note of important systems in several African countries. The review market imperfections. . . .There was virtually of the agriculture sector in Nigeria found that no attention paid to the credibility of policy while the country has the largest agricultural 4 0 K E Y FAC TO RS O F P E R F O R M A N C E Box 4.1: Weak Political Commitment Has Been a Factor in Performance The completion report of the Togo National Agriculture Ser- them to SOTOCO from whom they had originally been trans- vices Project (fiscal 1998) rated borrower performance unsat- ferred" (World Bank 2003f, p. 12). isfactory and noted, "The government failed to provide, in a The 1998 IEG study of the agriculture sector in Kenya (IEG timely and adequate manner, its counterpart funding to imple- 1998c) also found that lack of sufficient ownership was a weak- menting agencies, and, for reasons still unclear, it withdrew the ness that had severely compromised developmental effective- extension services for cotton production from ICAT and returned ness of Bank-supported operations in Kenya. research system in the Region, funding to the Many countries reversed reforms as a Weak commitment also system was severely curtailed in the 1980s follow- result of external shocks or changing contributed to ing the decline of oil prices. In Tanzania, IEG's economic conditions (IFPRI 2000). underfunding of critical recent assessment of the Second Agriculture The civil war that erupted in northern research and extension Research Project (fiscal 1998) and the Second and eastern Uganda, for example, systems. National Agricultural Extension Project (fiscal forced the government to divert re- 1997) found that sustainability remains the sources, or even ignore some of the components biggest concern because there was insufficient of liberalization such as a prohibition on printing attention to matching the scale of public sector currency to cover budget deficits (Bazaara 2001). activity to realistically projected resources. Malawi reinstated fertilizer subsidies that were to be phased out in the mid-1980s because In some cases the lack of political commitment currency devaluation and the severance of reflected a deeper governance problem, and transport routes through Mozambique signifi- Bank project implementation did not always cantly raised fertilizer prices (IFPRI recognize this. The Cameroon, Kenya, and 2000). In Ghana, the IEG project External shocks or Tanzania agriculture sector reviews found that assessment report (IEG 2001) found internal conditions Bank interventions show little appreciation for that while structural adjustment was a caused many countries to the time required to carry out major reforms. In major part of support to the country reverse reforms. many cases, project completion reports and after 1990, in 1992, coinciding with IEG project assessments also found that the elections, public expenditure financed by pace and scope of the reform advocated in borrowing from the banking sector increased countries in the Region has been beyond the substantially when civil service salaries rose. This capabilities of the governments. resulted in a large increase in the money supply and high inflation, and negated the reform In Kenya, for example, reforms ran into politi- principles. cal and implementation delays and reversals because of unrealistic expectations regarding Country capacity to support development the steps required for the reforms to pass of agriculture through into legislation and implementation. In Willingness and commitment are not by them- Zambia, the project assessment for the First and selves enough to drive the development of Second Privatization and Industrial Reform agriculture. Capacity is also needed. Credits found that the reform programs under In many African countries, weak capac- In many African the two projects were beyond the intent and ity has prevented the state from ef- countries, weak capacity capacity of the government to implement fully. fectively planning and budgeting, has prevented effective In Cameroon and Nigeria, other factors played a managing development assistance, planning and budgeting, part. The country sector reviews found that and providing services (Commission management of commitment to the agriculture sector rose and for Africa 2005). In some countries, development assistance, fell in tandem with oil revenues. scientific and technically proficient and provision of services. 4 1 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A staff are in short supply (Commission for Africa primarily on sector institutions, as in the Tanzania 2005). This problem is partly related to the quality Agriculture Sector Management Project (fiscal of education in universities, which is not a subject 2004). The predominant emphasis of the Ethiopia of this review, but again reinforces the depend- Seed Sector Development Project (fiscal 1995) was ence of agricultural development on other also for institutional and human capacity building. sectors. The main activity was to restructure and de- centralize the Ethiopian Seed Enterprise to create Enhancing the countries' institutional capacity a commercially oriented agency. has been high on the donor agenda for the past two decades and has also been an important Support for building the capacity of govern- aspect of many Bank agriculture projects. This ments at the regional and subregional levels study found Bank activities that provided training became important with the emphasis on to support the establishment of early warning decentralization in the Bank's client countries. In systems for droughts and other natural disasters, addition, several projects, particularly from the improve M&E capacity, develop information sys- late 1990s, have provided support for strength- tems, and strengthen human resource capacity ening producer organizations and farmer or user through higher education, among other pursuits. groups, either to take on more responsibility for Bank projects have also provided support for the operation and maintenance, as with water user revitalization and restructuring of agricultural groups, or to improve the negotiating capacity research capacity to improve its coherence and of producer organizations, as in the case of quality and for training of research staff.5 The attempts to strengthen cotton or coffee produc- Bank has also provided support for CGIAR, which ers. Since these projects have become popular, has invested more than $3.2 billion in nominal Bank projects have also attempted to provide dollars in research and capacity strengthening in training support to government officials to build Africa since 1971 (see box 4.2). Further, since the their capacity to deliver cost-effective services to Bank began to champion the cause of the rural communities and producer organizations. developing countries in international trade agreements, strengthening their capacity to The Africa Region's self-evaluations and IEG negotiate trade issues has also become part of the project assessments show that the capacity- capacity-building agenda. building aspect of the Bank's support has had much less success than anticipated. An IEG The Bank has also provided support for Précis reporting on capacity building in the The Bank's contribution restructuring of line ministries and agriculture sector in Africa found that "although to policy formulation has privatization of grain and agricultural some success has been achieved in implement- picked up since 2002. marketing boards (an area critical to ing structural adjustment programs with a governance), developing management consequent reduction in government activities systems and capacity to improve the allocation to a more manageable size and liberalization of and utilization of budgetary and manpower economic policies that improved resource resources, and enhancing capacity to formulate allocation and producer incentives, there has rural and agricultural policies and strategies. been less success in reviving the capacity of Contribution to strategy formulation, in particular, public institutions" (IEG 1999c, p. 2). has picked up since fiscal 2002. Even today, local agriculture ministries continue Sometimes, privatization and restructuring of line to be weak and relatively ineffective partners in ministries or parastatals was part of a larger promoting development of the agriculture economic reform program in the country, as in the sector. Weak borrower capacity was an important case of the Zambia First and Second Privatization shortcoming in 77 percent of the cases where a and Industrial Reforms Credits (fiscal 1992 and Bank-supported intervention was rated unsatis- 1993). At other times, agriculture projects focused factory on outcome. This finding is of particular 4 2 K E Y FAC TO RS O F P E R F O R M A N C E Box 4.2:The History and Challenges of National Research Capacity in Africa The CGIAR is a network of 15 international agricultural research the line ministries at a time of budget stringency and reordering centers, all of which currently have programs in Africa, though of government budgets. The effectiveness of research in Africa de- only 4 are located in the Region. In addition, African countries pends not only on the link between CGIAR institutions but also on also have national agriculture research systems. the strength of the national research systems. The World Bank has In the early 1960s, 10 percent of the agricultural researchers been the largest supporter of national research systems. After more in Africa were African and 90 percent were expatriate staff. By the than 40 years of independence, however, many of those systems early 1990s, however, overseas training programs had reversed the are weak and financially unstable. Promising reforms are under ratio. way in the systems of several countries and increased attention This massive capacity-building effort in Africa is an important is being given to developing alliances and partnerships with uni- success story, but knowledgeable observers generally agree that versities and the private sector. The competitive grant programs agricultural research in Africa today is weaker and at an earlier have also grown rapidly. stage of institutional maturity than in Asia and Latin America. Cur- In 1985 a group of donors at the Tokyo CGIAR meeting decided rently, 80 percent (4,800) of Africa's agricultural researchers are to create the Special Program for African Agricultural Research concentrated in 13 countries, while the remaining 20 percent (SPAAR). The program was charged with improving the coordi- (1,200) are dispersed in 35 countries across the continent. nation of donor aid to agricultural research in Africa and helping Soon after independence, many new governments nationalized strengthen the capacity of the national systems to use new tech- or abolished the regional research institutes of their former colo- nology from the CGIAR system. The decision to create the Forum nial governments. The first 20 years after independence saw sub- for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) was made in 1997 dur- stantial growth in national agricultural research systems, but it was ing the Seventeenth Plenary Session of the SPAAR. FARA was en- not systematically planned and came at some cost to research ef- visioned as a facilitating and information exchange forum among fectiveness. The process was fragmented as departments within the subregional organizations and as an apex body to represent different ministries built their own research capacity. Africa. During the adjustment era in Africa, civil service reform pro- The activities of this partnership have not been independently vided the political space for consolidating and restructuring agri- assessed. However, the biggest challenge is that national systems cultural research across much of the continent. This period also today are dependent on donor support for a large amount of their saw renewed donor interest in funding national agricultural re- resources, and it is not clear whether resources will be available search in Africa. Consequently, research units, staff, and infra- in the future to sustain and strengthen their activities. This is also structure were pulled out of the different ministries, especially the challenge for local-level cooperative research ventures--for ministries of agriculture and livestock, and consolidated under a example, CGIAR institute collaborations such as that between single semi-autonomous structure. CIAT and the Eastern and Central Africa Bean Research Network. By 1991, 28 of the 47 countries in Africa had adopted this struc- The Bank has been supporting such networking but, given the per- ture for their national research programs. Donor funding facilitated sistent problem of financial sustainability in African agricultural re- this process but it also resulted in a shift to reliance on donor fi- search, there needs to be more aggressive targeting of, and nancing, as agricultural research lost its traditional budget within support for, such regional cooperation options. Sources: Eicher and Rukuni 2003; Ndiritu and others 2004; http://www.fara-africa.org/about-us/ concern, as Bank lending is shifting toward Unrealistic or overly ambitious project design has budgetary support, thrusting far more demand been a major factor and was a concern in almost for management decision making in setting half of the projects rated unsatisfactory on priorities on these weak ministries. In such outcome. Several Bank projects have been projects, there is a need for realistic Bank analysis unrealistic about the availability of resources to of current institutional capacity during project support activities after project completion. For preparation and a clearly stated assessment of example, the Tanzania Agriculture Sector Manage- that capacity in the appraisal documents. ment Project (fiscal 1994) appraisal report had 4 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A The main factor anticipated that the savings from the activities, an expansion in small-scale irrigation, undermining rationalization of the Ministry of contributing to increased on-farm diversification performance has been Agriculture would finance incremental of investments, productivity, and food security. The unrealistic or overly recurrent costs, but the recent project completion report for the project, while noting ambitious project design. assessment found that the agriculture that the overall result of the capacity-building ministries appear just as short of component was unsatisfactory, found that the operating funds now as they were before the training had been infrequent and insufficiently project. integrated into a plan suited to the training requirements of producers' organizations. The Bank has a long record of such experience, particularly in Africa, as treasuries tend to take The completion report of the Gambia Agricul- back savings from downsized ministries. Funding tural Services Project (fiscal 1993) found that staff is generally closely related to staff numbers. A trained abroad for the specific purpose of improv- similar situation occurred in Kenya, where ing sectoral analytical capacity were reassigned to savings from Forest Department reforms were other departments. In Malawi, the impact of redirected elsewhere. It should be possible for efforts to build capacity, especially in the Ministry the Bank, which does Public Expenditure of Agriculture, was limited because of the rapid Reviews, to subject sectoral projects to tougher turnover of counterpart staff, particularly in the appraisal standards with regard to their financial economist streams (IEG 1998d). In other cases, sustainability in light of known budgetary such as the Mali Natural Resource Management constraints (IEG 1999c). Project (fiscal 1992), IEG found that trained government staff moved to the private sector, to Capacity enhancement Success with capacity enhancement has NGOs, or even abroad once the project closed has also been limited by also been limited by weaknesses in the (IEG 2003e). weaknesses in training training programs provided within programs. Bank activities. In some cases relevant Inadequate attention has been given to training was not organized; in other incentives and other factors such as staff salaries cases trained staff were not used effectively. A and promotion incentives that are important for review by the Africa Region in 1997 found that retaining highly skilled technical staff. It is now project training is often the least-well-defined widely recognized that the underpayment of component of a project (World Bank 1997a). A public servants is a source of capacity weakness review of completion reports found that in about throughout most of Africa and is a serious 15 percent of the completed projects impediment to the effectiveness of capacity- Too little attention has where outcome was rated unsatisfac- building interventions (IEG 1999c). However, been given to incentives tory, weakness in training was identified most of these factors cannot be adequately for retaining highly as an issue. For example, the overall addressed in sector interventions and often need skilled technical staff. objective of the Mali Irrigation Pro- to be tackled through reform of government pay motion Project (fiscal 1997) was to im- structures and performance assessment and prove and induce, through capacity-building reward systems. 4 4 Chapter 5 Evaluation Highlights · The Bank has provided support in a large number of areas, some difficult to track, relevant to agricultural development. · But those interventions have been scattered, and not linked together in a manner that recognizes the in- terconnected nature of agriculture activities. · Weakness in the Bank data systems make it difficult to tell how much support has been provided in differ- ent areas. A bowl of cassava. Photograph by R. Koenig, reproduced by permission of the photographer and Still Pictures. The Bank's Contribution-- A Thematic Assessment U sing the evidence presented in chapters 3 and 4, this chapter assesses the Bank's activities for their contribution to relieving the constraints on agricultural development as identified in chapter 2. Agro-Ecological Diversity design provided little information on The Bank has helped The portfolio review found that the Bank has how project gains would be assessed. make research more provided some support that has made research The only reference to agro-ecological responsive to agro- more responsive to the agro-ecological diversity diversity in the project's completion ecological diversity. of Africa--most national research systems now report is that one activity carried out have zonal station responsibilities. However, simple fertilizer trials and has resulted in the there is little indication that Bank-supported compilation of a database of region-specific fertil- projects beyond those involving research have izer recommendations, but there is no discus- adapted their activities to diverse agro-ecolog- sion of how or if this information was used or ical conditions and production systems within transferred to farmers. countries. Bank staff clearly recognize the importance of Although the background discussion of project adapting to agro-ecological diversity but seem to documents often refers to different agro-ecolog- have difficulty working it into project design. ical zones, this is not followed through in the Project completion reports have identified the project description or linked to project activi- lack of attention to agro-ecological conditions as ties.1 The portfolio review found that documents a factor in unsatisfactory performance. The for only 8 of the 71 sample projects incorporated completion report for the São Tomé and Principe specific activities related to the different agro- Agricultural Privatization and Smallholder ecological conditions into the project design. Development Project (fiscal 1992) attributed Moreover, in most cases, there is little reporting unsatisfactory Bank performance in on progress made in responding to the diverse part to the provision of seeds that But there is little agro-ecological conditions. For example, the were not adapted to the countries' indication that projects Malawi Agricultural Services Project (fiscal 1993) agro-ecological diversity. Similarly, the other than research have had the development of technologies for differ- completion report for the Sudan adapted their activities to ent agro-ecological conditions as an objective, Emergency Drought Relief Project diverse agro-ecological yet it is difficult to say whether the project (fiscal 1992) noted that the project conditions within succeeded in meeting that goal, because its included forage varieties not suited to countries. 4 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A drought conditions, resulting in low germination carry out activities beyond the Bank-supported rates. projects or inadequate government commit- ment, among other things, as reasons. In the The ability to respond to local conditions has Zimbabwe Emergency Drought Relief Project been the primary appeal of projects that use (fiscal 1992), sustainability was a concern be- decentralized or community-driven development cause of a lack of follow-through on a compre- approaches. Yet a review of the agriculture hensive policy and institutional framework for projects that are meant to be client-driven found drought preparedness and drought mitigation. little attempt even in these interventions to The Sudan Emergency Drought Recovery Project respond to agro-ecological diversity. For exam- (fiscal 1992) was rated unlikely for sustainability ple, the appraisal document for the Ghana based on its failure to generate the political Community-Based Rural Development Project support required for sustainable action on the (fiscal 2005) does not respond to agro-ecological formulation of food security policy. diversity in the country, nor does the Tanzania Agriculture Sector Development Project (fiscal IEG project assessments have also found sustain- 2006). More than 51 percent of the respondents ability to be a major concern. For example, the to the IEG staff survey agreed that Bank agricul- Kenya Arid Lands Resource Management Project ture projects in Africa are not able to respond was found to have established a drought early adequately to the agro-ecological diversity and warning and response system, but of the 11 the needs of diverse production systems. districts most adversely affected by drought, it said, "if there is no support from the broader Fluctuating Rainfall and Droughts government system in providing some resources, Nineteen of the 262 agriculture-component either through government's own resources or projects in Africa supported activities related to through mobilization of external assistance, the droughts, according to IEG's recent improvements introduced by the project will Nineteen of the 262 Natural Disaster Study (IEG 2006c). gradually atrophy" (IEG 2005b, p. 17). component projects in Several other agriculture projects also Africa had drought- supported activities that were expected The findings in the project assessments and the related activities. to build country capacity to reduce the portfolio review show that Bank-supported impact of emergencies (including those agriculture activities in Africa have generally arising from pests and diseases). The activities responded more to dealing with acute food included research and dissemination of drought- insecurity when it occurs than to helping resistant seed varieties (Ghana Agriculture Re- countries develop a long-term approach to search, fiscal 1991; Mali Agricultural Research, address the factors that create food insecurity.2 1994; and Tanzania Agricultural Research, 1998). In the large areas of Africa where rainfall is highly The CGIAR, with Bank support, has also made a variable, irrigation is extremely limited, and major contribution in this area. Other activities droughts are frequent, acute3 and chronic food include putting in place drought early warning insecurity are inextricably linked. A drought systems, as in the Kenya Arid Lands Resource worsens the situation of the millions who are Management Project (fiscal 1996). chronically food insecure. Though such activities may have helped reduce While Bank-supported activities have had some vulnerability, the poor sustainability record of success with helping governments set up Bank agriculture projects in Africa suggests that warning and drought management systems, their long-run contribution to food sustainability is an issue even here. Achieve- These activities may have security has been limited (see figure ments in dealing with chronic food insecurity reduced vulnerability, 3.2 in chapter 3). IEG reviews of com- have been poor. Despite its presence for more but their sustainability is pletion reports have noted inad- than two decades in several countries, Bank questionable. equate availability of resources to support has so far not been able to help 4 8 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T countries increase agricultural productivity "Over the past 10­15 years, Malawi has Projects have generally sufficiently to arrest declining per capita food shifted from being a self-sufficient responded more to acute availability. In most African countries, food producer of maize in non-disaster food insecurity than to insecurity is directly related to insufficient total years to being a regular net importer dealing with its long-term food production, in contrast to South Asia and dependent on foreign assistance to causes. other Regions where food insecurity is primarily achieve a national food balance" (IEG caused by poor distribution and lack of purchas- 2007f, p. 3). Though several factors have con- ing power (Sanchez 2002). tributed to this change, inadequate attention to issues related to agricultural development has A very large percentage of drought-related been a major factor. Agricultural growth in project investment has been undertaken in Malawi declined from 8.1 percent a year during response to emergencies. Of the 19 projects with 1990­2000 to 1.8 percent during 2000­04 (IEG activities that responded to droughts, the activi- 2007f).7 ties in 9 were solely for emergency mitigation. Of the other 10, several attempted to put in place In Ethiopia, where droughts and rainfall varia- long-term drought management. But this work bility also contribute to food insecurity, the Bank was generally not aimed at improving agricultural has again not taken a strategic ap- productivity. proach to reducing vulnerability. The Bank support has had 1995 assistance strategy for the some success in helping Where specific activities could lead to improved country noted that the central ob- governments set up long-run productivity--research and dissemina- jective was to reduce poverty. Improv- warning and tion of drought- and disease-resistant varieties, ing the ability of the rural population management systems. for example--results have been poor. Among the to cope with periodic droughts and reasons for this poor performance are weak improve food security on a sustainable basis was coordination between CGIAR research and Bank meant to be a key element of this strategy. interventions,4 inadequate extension, and farmer reluctance to adopt improved technologies The assistance strategy also recognized that most because of a shortage of complementary inputs Ethiopian agriculture is rain-fed, and highly and credit. The last could have been addressed variable rainfall and periodic drought create a more aggressively had the Bank-supported high level of risk for farmers and uncertainty activities shown an appreciation of the multifac- about the expected volume of domestic food eted nature of agricultural development. production. These forces have produced a history of widespread famine that has exacted a In countries where droughts are very frequent, devastating human toll. Steps to improve food such as Malawi, the Bank's major response has security, including greater use of water resources been to provide emergency loans. About 80 in times of drought, are thus central to Ethiopia's percent of the credit for the Malawi Emergency development strategy. Drought Recovery Project (fiscal 2003) was quick-disbursing assistance for agriculture inputs However, during the period of review, there has to provide immediate relief. The Bank has also been only very limited Bank lending to support provided technical support for mitigation and development of irrigation (through a social fund) prevention of weather risk. However, it has in a country that has so far developed only 170,000 provided only limited support through other hectares of its estimated irrigation potential of 2­3 agriculture projects in Malawi and has not been million hectares (World Bank 2006a). A able to contribute much to increasing agricul- Food Security Project was approved in Where droughts have tural productivity.5 Meanwhile, food security in fiscal 2002; among other things, it was been very frequent, the the country has become more precarious.6 The meant to focus on soil conservation Bank's response has IEG assessment of the Malawi Emergency and water harvesting. The project was generally been to provide Drought Recovery Project acknowledges that expected to do this using a community- emergency loans. 4 9 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A driven approach. But for farmers to "demand" The Bank has failed to take a long-term, strategic microprojects related to soil management, they approach to drought and food security, in part must have appropriate knowledge about viable because it has not taken a multifaceted approach options with quick returns. This is rarely the case. to agricultural development. As a result, Bank The Ministry of Agriculture's midterm review support that could have led to major successes report for the project (September 2006) shows achieved much less than anticipated (see box 5.1 that very few of the chosen subprojects were for an example). actually designed to improve land productivity. A recent IEG review of CASs in 12 African countries The Bank has provided Early findings from IEG's ongoing where there were agriculture projects with very limited lending for Ethiopia Country Assistance Evalua- drought components found that most of the irrigation development. tion suggest that the Bank's overall discussion around food security involved the distri- efforts in the agriculture sector have bution of food aid (IEG 2006c). None of the CASs been disappointing. The 2003 CAS acknowl- mentioned the role that sectors such as transport edges, "Not only are poverty levels amongst the can play in increasing accessibility to drought- highest in the world, but the Ethiopian popula- prone areas or decreasing their vulnerability. As a tion is extremely vulnerable, especially because result, rural road development, which could make of its reliance on a rainfall-based economy. . . . a major contribution to country capacity for While it is the drought that has sharply increased drought management, is generally not part of a the numbers of affected people, underlying strategic drought management approach. Further, causes of vulnerability and related economic, the portfolio review for the recent transport study social, and developmental deficiencies have to (IEG 2007o) found that exposure to droughts was be addressed" (World Bank 2003e, p. 3). not a major factor in identifying the location of Box 5.1: Bank Support for Fadama Project I in Nigeria: Achievements Constrained by Lack of a Multifaceted Approach The Bank's support of fadama irrigation in Nigeria attempts to Fadama II (fiscal 2004) attempts to address some of the short- make agricultural production less dependent on erratic rainfall. comings using a community-driven development (CDD) approach. Fadama lands are flood plains and low-lying areas over shallow It also proposes to support demand-driven research and extension, aquifers along Nigeria's river system. The farmers of northern and better access to inputs and markets. While it is expected to Nigeria have long used water drawn from shallow wells or handle some of the challenges that constrained agriculture pro- streams to irrigate fadama lands, where they cultivate small duction in the first project, it is not clear that it will do so. Previ- areas during the dry season. ous IEG assessments of CDD projects have often found that such A pilot initiative financed by the Bank under the National Agri- projects are unable to give adequate attention to sector-specific cultural Development Projects (ADPs), undertaken prior to the technical issues. study period for this review, helped introduce low-cost tubewell It is too soon to tell whether Fadama II will succeed. The lat- drilling and irrigation by pump in the traditional fadama farming est supervision report notes that few of the subprojects have areas. The fadama components were the most successful elements started yielding benefits to communities. There are also concerns of the ADPs and were scaled up into a free-standing project, the about inadequate maintenance plans and insufficient capacity of first National Fadama Development Project (Fadama I, fiscal 1993). facilitators and private service providers to provide adequate Fadama I raised crop yields, but profits were low because farm- technical support to farmers. While the Bank can be credited for ers lacked access to markets and insufficient attention had been having stayed for the long haul in fadama areas, inadequate recog- given to downstream processing and marketing. Achievements nition of the multifaceted nature of agriculture has restrained its were also constrained by land tenure uncertainties, which exac- achievements. erbated traditional tensions between farmers and pastoralists. 5 0 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T rural roads in Africa. In fact, there is very little Bank projects had a long-term strate- Although several projects information in project completion reports on how gic approach to linking the develop- have dealt with food the locations for particular rural roads were ment of cassava or millet to building security and drought, few selected. food security in individual countries adequately addressed the or building on the resilience of a causative links between The portfolio review for this study found that traditional system with built-in secu- them. although several projects have dealt with both rity measures. food security and drought, few adequately addressed the causative links between the two. Contributing effectively to cassava development While improving food security was a stated seems to have been a missed opportunity for the objective of 8 of the 71 projects in the sample, Bank (box 5.2).9 A sound poverty focus in circum- only 1 of the 8 specifically links the issue of food stances of declining soil fertility and high input security to drought, despite the frequent recur- costs in many African countries would likely point rence of droughts in the Africa Region.8 toward directing more effort to the development of crops of particular importance for the poor. Partly because of the weaknesses in analytic work already noted, the Bank's project appraisal Similarly, although there are projects that support documents do not show an appreciation of the livestock development activities, there are few diversified coping strategies that traditionally (the Kenya Arid Land Project may be the only have been followed to minimize risks of food exception) that recognize the value of livestock in insecurity. In diversified cropping systems, some the diversified production systems farmers use to crops, such as cassava and millet, have been cope with drought and that attempt to increase particularly important because of their drought the efficiency of livestock production. resilience. Figure 5.1 shows cassava yields in comparison with maize yields in drought years. Soil Fertility While the Bank has contributed to development A review of CASs and project documents shows of improved millet and cassava varieties, the that the Bank does not appear to have engaged assessment did not find much evidence that its African clients in serious policy dialogue about Figure 5.1: Production of Maize and Cassava in Six Drought-Affected Countries of Southern Africa 12,000,000 1992 drought 2002 drought 10,000,000 1983 drought sn 8,000,000 to n 6,000,000 Millio 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Maize Cassava Source: FAO Web site 2005. Note: Countries include Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The sensitivity of maize to moisture variations is compared with "cassava," representing roots and tubers. 5 1 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Box 5.2: Cassava: A Missed Opportunity for the Bank to Contribute to Food Security Cassava is Africa's second-most important food staple based on Where has the Bank been? per capita calories consumed, and the Region produces half of CGIAR institutions and Bank-supported research projects have the world's supply of the staple. Cassava provides a reliable contributed to the development of improved varieties and dis- source of food during drought (due to flexibility of harvesting), ease/pest control for cassava, but the linkages between CGIAR locust attacks, and the hungry season--the period before sea- research and Bank projects have been weak. Country factors sonal food crops are ready for harvest. clearly played the key role in the cassava transformation in Cassava is grown in about 40 African countries by millions of Nigeria, and the Bank appears to have had a minimal role. poor farmers, many of them women, often on marginal land. Though Between 1993 and 1999 the Bank did not approve any new proj- estimates differ, about 70 percent of Africa's cassava output is har- ects in Nigeria because of governance problems. Nor did it sup- vested in Nigeria, where a number of factors have come together port analytical work that could help build the basis for future to allow its successful transformation from a low-yielding subsis- agriculture support in this area. Current Bank analytical work for tence crop to a high-yielding crop produced primarily for urban mar- Nigeria does not even show an adequate appreciation of the rea- kets. Availability of improved and disease-resistant varieties was sons for the increase in production of cassava (appendix L). only one of those factors (see appendix L). The Cameroon, Kenya, and Tanzania country reviews also found African policy makers and most donor agencies neglected cas- a lack of appreciation in the Bank's strategy statements and activities sava for numerous reasons (FAO and IFAD 2005) until the late for the important role of cassava and other root crops in providing 1980s, when the Rockefeller Foundation initiated a Collaborative food security. The portfolio review shows that despite the recog- Study of Cassava in Africa. Then, in the mid-1990s, the FAO for- nition of the importance of the crop in the local farming system in mally recognized the importance of cassava as a food security Bank project documents, projects have not taken a strategic ap- crop. This was followed by the Global Cassava Development proach to building on its strength as a food security measure. Strategy (GCDS), an initiative spearheaded by the FAO and IFAD The Bank as an organization is not even a member of the FAO and formalized in 2002 for identifying opportunities and con- and IFAD initiative on GCDS. It is not clear why this is so. However, straints to cassava production and processing. The strategy pro- many Western food policy analysts still consider cassava an in- vides a framework for technical cooperation in research and ferior food whose per capita consumption is expected to decline technology transfer and for future debates on global issues af- with increasing per capita incomes, and it is possible that the fecting cassava. NEPAD has also identified cassava as a poverty Bank approach has been influenced by this thinking. Given the dra- fighter (NEPAD 2004; Whingwiri 2004) and has developed a mar- matic increase in its production and use in Africa and its role in ket-orientated strategy to develop the commodity, which is based food security, it is clear that a decline in consumption of that crop on the GCDS. is not likely in the near future. Sources: http://www.fao.org/ag/AGP/AGPC/gcds/GCS.htm (March 21, 2007); FAO and IFAD 2005; study research. the Region's declining soil fertility. About 68 (fiscal 1997) was to "continue to improve the percent of the CASs reviewed did not mention delivery of extension services to smallholder soil fertility. The portfolio review also found that farmers for increasing their incomes and produc- less than 10 percent of the project documents tivity, while improving its relevance, sustainability, discuss the inherent limitations of African soils. and cost-effectiveness," but the appraisal states While the appraisal documents for 27 of the 71 that "through the dissemination of messages projects in the portfolio review do refer to declin- related to improved fallow, afforestation, and anti- ing soil fertility, most (25) do not recognize the erosion techniques, the project would also have a centrality of the problem to agricultural develop- positive impact on soil fertility, conservation, and ment. This review found that in most water management" (World Bank 2006l, p. 14).10 There has been limited cases soil fertility was "tacked on" as an policy dialogue about the issue in the project. For example, the The Bank has often taken the lead in engaging its Region's declining soil objective of the Tanzania National clients and the international community in fertility. Agricultural Extension Project Phase II discussion and debate on issues of such global 5 2 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T and regional importance as soil fertility. So it is to help African smallholders escape the The Bank appears to have surprising that the issue has received so little poverty trap (World Bank 2007a). Given seen soil fertility more as attention. Bank staff are aware of the importance Africa's current precarious position-- an environmental than of the issue, however, and the CGIAR research rapidly declining soil fertility, very high an agricultural institutions have been identifying and testing fertilizer prices, and no easy short-term productivity issue. new soil management practices for some time. way of bringing them down to a reason- More recently, the Bank became party to the Terr able level--it is creditable that the Bank has begun Africa Regional Initiative. Launched in 2005, exploring ways of making fertilizers affordable for this is a multidimensional partnership that is poor farmers. The above-mentioned Bank sector expected to promote a collective approach to work (World Bank 2007a) summarizes some sustainable land management in Africa. The Bank lessons learned and guidelines for increasing has even supported the Soil Fertility Initiative11 access to fertilizers by smallholders in Africa, but it in Africa, but has not followed through on the is not clear how far the recommendations are initiative with either a serious policy dialogue being incorporated in Bank lending. In this with its clients or substantive funding support. connection, it will also be worth exploring how Kenya has succeeded in experiencing a tremen- Interviews of Bank agriculture staff in the Africa dous growth in fertilizer use, as is evident in the lit- Region and in ARD revealed several issues that erature (Ariga, Jayne, and Nyoro 2006), in the may have contributed to the neglect of soil fertil- context of the forthcoming IEG agriculture study. ity. Among these are IDA funding constraints, shortage of technical staff, a sense among Bank Water management and staff that it would be another The Bank supported 31 projects with irrigation add-on among too many others, and an impres- components in the Region during sion that this is mainly an FAO agenda. fiscal 1991­2006. There have been few There have been only a free-standing irrigation projects, and few free-standing The Bank appears to have seen soil fertility more in only 8 of them was the irrigation irrigation projects. as an environmental than an agricultural produc- component 45 percent or more. The tivity issue. The portfolio review found that largest share of the total lending of $343.5 where project documents discuss soil fertility, for irrigation in Africa went to Mali (17 percent) the emphasis is more on halting land degrada- in four projects, followed by Madagascar (11 tion and the consequent environmental damage percent). than on directly addressing the link between declining soil fertility and agricultural develop- The Pilot Private Irrigation Promotion Project ment.12, 13 This appears to have happened partly (fiscal 1997) in Mali was expected to enhance the because environmental conservation became a capacity of private institutions involved in provid- priority within the Bank following the United ing equipment, services, and financing for small- Nations Conference on Environment and Devel- scale irrigation investments. The findings of opment in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. IEG's recent assessment indicate that the project failed to achieve its objective. It was expected Concern about declining soil fertility has now led that on-farm investments, induced by the some countries, such as Malawi and Tanzania, to project's technical assistance efforts, would lead reinstate fertilizer subsidies, a common policy in to the rehabilitation of about 400 hectares and to earlier periods, as discussed in chapter 2. Many the establishment of about 600 hectares of newly African governments and some donors believe that irrigated land. However, only 10 hectares were some food security and environmental issues rehabilitated and no investments were could be addressed by input subsidies (Kelly, made for new small-scale irrigation Concern about declining Adesina, and Gordon 2003).14 A leading proponent schemes, and the impact on private soil fertility has led some of fertilizer subsidies has advocated large-scale sector development was insignificant countries to reinstate distribution of low-cost or no-cost fertilizer as a way (IEG 2007i). fertilizer subsidies. 5 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A The Bank has also helped The Bank has also helped promote Ethiopia). IEG's evaluation of community-based promote private sector private sector development in irriga- and community-driven approaches (IEG 2005a) development in tion in countries such as Burkina noted the problem of sustainability of subpro- irrigation. Faso and Niger in West Africa. Among jects constructed under these interventions other things, the pilot projects because of the lack of local community capacity supported services for on-farm demonstrations and resources for O&M. The Ghana and the of small-scale irrigation equipment and tech- Nigeria projects are still being implemented, but niques; promotion of markets for small-scale the Ethiopia project has closed and the comple- irrigation products, inputs, and services; and tion report itself rates sustainability unlikely. facilitation of access to financial services. It appears that these have had reasonable success, Bank support for water management in rain-fed although neither project has been independ- areas is difficult to identify because there is no ently evaluated. system to track such projects. By looking at specific water resource management and envi- In Madagascar, one of the two countries in Africa ronment "theme" codes (see appendix A), this that have the maximum area under review was able to find several interventions with Current databases make irrigation, the Bank provided support small subcomponents for improved natural re- it difficult to identify for irrigation development through source management. Bank support for water three projects for a total of $37.95 management in rain-fed million. A fourth project, on Irrigation The identified projects have attempted water areas. and Watershed Management, was harvesting and management (for example, approved in November 2006. The Mauritania Rain-fed Natural Resource Manage- Bank's support in Madagascar has largely been ment [fiscal 1997] and Madagascar Environment for institutional reform, specifically privatization II [fiscal 1997]). In most of these interventions, of public and parastatal irrigation organizations physical targets are achieved or exceeded, but in the early 1990s, and support for improved the projects themselves have not been suffi- operation and maintenance (O&M), partly ciently integrated with the countries' agricultural through transfer of the management of irrigation development strategy. Further, M&E has been schemes to water-user associations. very weak, so it is difficult to assess what has worked and what has not. The literature, how- The latest project aims to adopt a contractual ever, suggests that such small-scale, technically approach that empowers stakeholders and simple water management systems can be effec- clarifies their roles. Although it is too early to tive in rain-fed areas (Sasakawa Africa Association comment on project performance, a recent IEG 2004a; IFPRI 2005a). mission to Madagascar found that transport and market access are major constraints to inputs Seeds and outputs, as is a dearth of agricultural credit The Bank's database does not track projects on the appropriate scale. Experience from other designed to contribute to the production, distri- countries in Africa shows that lack of attention to bution, and promotion of improved seeds. To these factors has often constrained the achieve- identify such projects, IEG relied on information ments of Bank irrigation projects. from the portfolio review. Forty-one percent of the portfolio was found to have seed-related In some other countries, including Ghana and activities. Most were investment projects, but Nigeria, the Bank supported an irrigation there were also a handful of adjustment credits component in a CDD operation or a social fund that sought to liberalize seed production and (the Community-Based Rural Devel- marketing or to develop a policy framework for Forty-one percent of the opment Project in Ghana, the Second market-based seed distribution. The latter also portfolio had seed-related National Fadama Project in Nigeria, emphasized involvement of the private sector in activities. and the Social Fund Project in input delivery systems. 5 4 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T The development of new seed varieties is mostly countries in areas with relatively good infrastruc- attributable to the work of the CGIAR, which the ture and for only a few crops, such as hybrid Bank supports.15 However, Bank projects have maize, where profit margins are relatively large. provided opportunities for testing and scaling up Bank projects have not been very successful in of technologies developed elsewhere, particu- promoting private sector participation in seed larly for crops such as maize. Among the activi- production for most other crops. ties supported by the projects identified by the portfolio review were research and dissemina- Constraints on seed production Development of new seed tion of improved varieties, seed multiplication capacity have also been an issue in varieties is mostly and production, provision of seeds in response some countries, as IEG noted in its attributable to the CGIAR, to an emergency or as part of a safety net, and assessment of the Ghana Agricultural but the Bank has improving seed quality through construction of Extension Project (fiscal 1992; IEG provided opportunities storage facilities or quality inspection services. 2001). In Ghana and elsewhere, the for testing and scaling up. The Togo National Agriculture Service Project government's inability to establish (fiscal 1998), for example, was to support the transparent conditions for entry have made it production of seed for the major crops cultivated difficult for the private sector to participate. in the country. The Ethiopia National Fertilizer Sector Project (fiscal 1995) was to support the The only free-standing seed project in the portfo- generation and dissemination of improved lio, the Ethiopia Seed Development Project (fiscal technology packages (including seeds). 1995), made little progress toward the government's objective of privatizing But the number of Although the Bank, CGIAR, and other donors the seed sector. Informal seed produc- farmers using those seeds have worked on the development and distribu- tion by farmers did not develop, remains small. tion of improved seed varieties, the evidence in private wholesalers and retailers left the literature suggests that the number of the market, and no new private businesses farmers regularly using that seed remains small entered the market. While the project attempted (Kelly, Adesina, and Gordon 2003; Maredia and to lay the foundation for a competitive seed Raitzer 2006). The total area of Sub-Saharan industry, the public and private sectors Africa planted with improved varieties developed remained unequal competitors. In this Seed multiplication and by CGIAR for 10 major food crops was about 11 approach, the government agricultural production capacity have percent of the total planted area in the late 1990s, extension service was provided with been issues in some compared with 55 percent in Asia, 30 percent in seed and fertilizer. Farmers also had countries. Latin America, and 48 percent in the Middle East access to credit to buy seeds from the and North Africa (Maredia and Raitzer 2006). government. The same facility was not available Documented yield effects are variable across for seeds bought from the private sector. This crops. Evenson (2003) estimated CGIAR contri- limited the demand for seeds from private butions to yield growth based on genetic entrepreneurs, who left the market (IEG 2007b). improvement in African crops to be in the range of 0.11 to 0.13 percent per year. This is signifi- The literature also shows that most countries in cantly below the annual average yield growth of Africa have a variety of registration and certifica- 0.30 to 0.33 percent across all developing tion regulations to protect farmers against regions. purchase of poor-quality seeds. However, the high cost in getting approvals, together with the A critical weakness in several countries has been small size of seed markets, has been a disincen- the lack of seed multiplication capacity. Over the tive to the private sector (Poulton and others past two decades, most governments in the 2006). More recently, projects such as the Africa Region closed their public seed companies Tanzania Participatory Agriculture Development in the belief that the private sector would take and Empowerment Project (fiscal 2003) have over. However, this has happened in only a few begun involving farmer groups in the produc- 5 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A tion and distribution of improved varieties Credit and Rural Finance (Anderson and others 2005). However, the With the Bank's existing coding system, it has project is still being implemented. Whether been difficult to get a complete picture of the these interventions can help set in place sustain- institution's support for activities in this area. It able multiplication and distribution systems was possible for this review to cross-check the remains to be seen. codes for "banking," "general finance," and "microfinance" in the Bank's database against the One factor that contributes to farmer reluctance 262 projects with agriculture components. to use improved seeds is the affordability of fertil- Through this analysis, IEG found that 38 of the izers. Research in Malawi has shown 262 projects in Africa, 14 percent of the portfolio, Affordability of fertilizers that farmers have not adopted hybrid had some aspect of agricultural credit and and lack of cash or credit seeds even when they are available financial services, though there are no free- limit seed use by farmers. because of the high cost of fertilizers standing credit projects among the 262 projects. (Peters 2002).16 Women farmers find it even more difficult to buy fertilizers because they There are very few investment operations among do not usually have access to money from the the 38 projects identified that have attempted to sale of cash crops (Gladwin 2002). address the credit constraint of smallholders. Two examples include the Ethiopia Fertilizer Another factor affecting the use of improved Project (fiscal 1995) and the Rwanda Agricultural seeds is the credit or cash needed to purchase and Rural Market Development Project (fiscal them. Traditionally the seeds used by African 2000). The Rwanda project provides for farmer farmers have been collected at the end of a access to cooperative credit for input acquisition. cropping season and saved on farms. With More recently, the Mali Agricultural Competitive- hybrids, particularly for crops such as maize, ness and Diversification Project (fiscal 2006) aims farmers have to purchase new seeds each year, to facilitate access to capital and financial services but few have the cash or access to credit for such for the private actors involved in the agricultural purchases. While various attempts have been supply chains. made to improve the affordability constraint in countries such as Zimbabwe by supplying seeds Other projects, such as the Guinea National in small packets (Kelly, Adesina, and Gordon Agricultural Export Promotion Project (fiscal 2003), these have not been adequate. 1993) and the Lesotho Industry and Agro- industry Project (fiscal 1991), have attempted to Farmer willingness to buy The vulnerability of hybrid varieties of ease the financial constraint of farmers growing is affected by perceptions several crops to diseases and pests has export crops. The Lesotho project, for example, of risk. also been found to be a problem.17, 18 was to encourage foreign and indigenous in- Given the fragile environment and the vestment in the industrial and agro-industries risk aversion of the average African farmers, their sectors. willingness to buy inputs even if they are available in the market also depends on whether they Where credit and financial services were part of a expect to get a good price for what they sell.19 structural adjustment intervention, the focus was The experience with maize in Africa shows that primarily on improving the overall enabling small farmers use improved seeds and comple- environment for development of a healthy mentary inputs if the technology, infrastructure, financial sector. and overall macroeconomic environment are appropriate (IFPRI 2005b). Weakness Projects such as Ghana Rural Financial Services The Bank's support to in extension can also be a significant and Benin Rural Savings have provided support address the major handicap.20 Hence, the availability of for rural credit as a part of the financial systems financial constraint for improved seeds alone is not enough approach.21 The Ghana project, which is still farmers has been limited. to increase yields. active, seeks to promote growth and reduce 5 6 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T poverty in Ghana by broadening financial which may help overcome the Credit components have intermediation in rural areas. However, it has not challenges identified in box 2.1. IEG's performed below par. provided support for agriculture development.22 lines of credit study found that the demand from governments remains strong in this In the Bank's data system, both the Ghana and the area. The study notes that "LOC [line of credit] Benin projects lack agriculture codes. Though can be a useful instrument when used well, and some may consider this mainly a coding issue, despite generally poor designs and given the sectoral nature of the institution (as outcomes, should not be entirely dis- There may be room for discussed in chapter 4), this can easily lead to lack carded from the Bank's lending both grants and credit in of coordination of the activities of these interven- toolkits" (IEG 2006h, pp. 32­33). How- the Bank's toolkit. tions with other Bank-supported activities in the ever, the need is for the Bank to take agriculture sector, a major concern of this review. greater care in designing and supervising these operations and to consistently follow Bank Past IEG studies have noted the low and declin- guidelines. ing level of support from the Bank, particularly for rural credit in Africa.23 One reason for the low A 1996 IEG review of agriculture credit also level of support is the weak performance of suggested that subsidies could be appropriate interventions in this area, as demonstrated by a under certain conditions, and the Bank commit- review of completion reports and the findings of ted itself at that time to calculate a subsidy an IEG study of lines of credit (IEG 2006h). dependence index for all rural lines of credit. In Weakness in performance of credit components spite of that commitment, the IEG 2006 lines of can be attributed to weak implementation of credit study found that the Bank rarely Bank guidelines, particularly regarding eligibility undertook an analysis of the subsidy, indicating and performance of financial intermediaries; lack that there is little transparency with respect to of adequate Bank follow-through on reforms subsidies in Bank operations. implemented; inadequate government owner- ship of the reform process; and the weak macro Transport Infrastructure environment to support viable financial institu- Projects with agriculture components have made tions, among other things. only a limited contribution to improving transport infrastructure for market access.24 An examination An ARD review of rural finance activities noted a of the investment in transport infrastructure in the Bank-wide decline in credit lines and an increase 262 projects found only 54 with transport in grant support. It may not be a bad thing that infrastructure components and a total of $634.1 there are now more grants--it could be an million spent on those components appropriate response to the many obstacles over a period of 15 years. In the other Projects with agriculture involved to establishing a robust and sustainable 208 projects (nearly 80 percent of the components have made rural credit system in many countries. There projects with agriculture components), only a limited may be room for both grants and credit in the no investment was made in transport contribution to Bank's toolkit, and all options should continue infrastructure. It could be argued that addressing to be explored for the most appropriate way to transport projects in the same area as transportation needs for provide farmers with the necessary means of the 208 agriculture projects might have agricultural development. increasing productivity and incomes. helped improve farmers' access to markets. However, given the sectoral organization Weak past performance does not mean that the of the Bank, and the limited coordination among Bank cannot support activities well in this area. As the Bank's various sectoral units and government noted in chapter 2, CGAP (to which the Bank ministries, there is no evidence that the process of contributes) research has made a contribution selecting rural roads in transport projects is part toward identifying viable and sustainable modali- of a deliberate, coordinated approach to develop- ties for providing agricultural credit to farmers, ing agriculture. 5 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A IEG's recently completed evaluation of the Local Empowerment and Environment Manage- transport sector (IEG 2007o) found that no ment Project (fiscal 2004), and the Mali Rural impact evaluations had been carried out in the Infrastructure Project (fiscal 2000). Strategic Africa Region for transport interventions, which development of the agriculture sector is not the makes it very difficult to say anything about the objective of these interventions, which are contribution of these interventions to agricul- primarily aimed at building local capacity and tural development. In addition, 80 percent of the providing communities with access to social and respondents to the IEG staff survey agreed that economic infrastructure. coordination between Bank staff working on agriculture and those working in other sectors in Some investments in the early part of the review the Africa Region is not good. period, such as the Agricultural Services Project (1992) in the Central African Republic, attempted Even where there was investment in transport as to increase the road network as a strategy to a part of an agriculture project it was usually not improve productivity in rural areas. However, the done as a part of a multifaceted approach to achievements of the aforementioned project agricultural development in the country. Of were limited, because its implementation was the 54 projects with transport infrastructure adversely affected by civil unrest. components, 18 are either structural Where there were or sector adjustments or economic Some other recent projects have been designed investments in transport, recovery loans. The structural adjust- specifically to improve farmers' access to they were not undertaken ments had some features associated markets by road. The Mali Agriculture Competi- as part of a multifaceted with regulatory, institutional, and tiveness and Diversification Project (fiscal 2006) approach to the management reforms in the transport is an example of a project that is attempting to development of sector. When such reforms sought to improve the performance of supply chains for a agriculture. reduce transport costs and improve range of agricultural, livestock, fishery, and services, as in Cameroon Structural gathering products, for which Mali has a strong Adjustment III, they likely provided an indirect comparative advantage. The project proposes stimulus to agricultural activities. However, this to improve rural roads for the collection of was not attempted as a part of a strategic cotton and other agricultural produce. Another approach for agricultural development. example is the Zambia Agriculture Develop- ment Sector Program (fiscal 2006), which aims In the emergency recovery loans the goal was to to support increased commercialization of respond to the emergency rather than to address smallholder agriculture through improved the longer-term development of agriculture. For productivity, quality, and efficiency of value example, in the Emergency Reconstruction chains where smallholders participate. The Project (fiscal 2001) in Eritrea, even though 20 project will provide resources to rehabilitate percent of the credit amount was for transport, it and maintain feeder and district roads of was primarily for the restoration or rehabilitation economic importance in areas with high of key roads and bridges damaged by the war, agricultural potential. It is too early to comment restoration and provision of access to settlements on the performance of these interventions. and camps, and provision of improved access roads to areas of recurrent drought and famine. Given the small size of several countries in Africa, regional programs can be very important to A large percentage of the remaining investments ensuring adequate transport coverage. The Bank in transport infrastructure are through interven- has supported a regional program on Africa tions that finance demand-driven community- Transport Policy to improve transport sector based infrastructure, such as community roads performance by promoting policy reform and and bridges. Examples include the Malawi Social institutional changes in 32 countries in the Action Fund Project (fiscal 2003), the Nigeria Region. A recent IEG review of regional programs 5 8 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T (IEG 2007n) found that the program has made an elopment of agriculture in Africa. For The Bank's borrowers in important contribution to transport sector­level example, improved techniques can Africa appreciate the knowledge and expertise. The Bank is also help address the large gap between important role of supporting other infrastructure-related regional potential and actual crop yields. The extension in increasing interventions, such as the Africa Trade and InterAcademy Council Report (2004)26 productivity. Transport Facility (fiscal 2006). It is too early to found that gaps in yield within Africa are say how these projects will affect development of far greater than the gaps cited between Africa agriculture in the countries. and the rest of the world. The report also found that "technology already `on the shelf' has the Extension potential to enhance land productivity in Africa The Bank's approach to extension changed over once adapted and fine-tuned to location specific the period 1991­2006.25 Before the training and situations" (p. 75). visit (T&V) approach fell out of favor in the late 1990s, the World Bank provided substantial Extending knowledge can also im- Extension can help financial support for this approach in several prove management practices--with improve crop yields and African countries. dramatic results. When the right vari- management practices. eties and good crop management tech- The T&V approach provided extension services niques are used in combination, less fertilizer to farmers using trained public extension agents. produces a higher yield. Heerink (2005) notes One of the major concerns with the approach that only about 30 percent of the nitrogen from was the inability of government to meet the large fertilizers is used by crops in West Africa. recurrent cost on project completion. In the However, the benefits to households' food early years, T&V was also "top-down" and lacked security from increased use of fertilizer and systematic farmer participation, although this hybrid seed are unlikely to be fully realized constraint was partly overcome in later years. without improvements in the efficiency of fertil- Bank extension projects approved in the late izer use (Orr 2000). Timing and method of fertil- 1990s increasingly provided for greater farmer izer application are significant problems that also participation, as in the Tanzania National Agricul- can be addressed with good extension. tural Extension II (fiscal 1997) and Burkina Faso National Agricultural Services Development II Farmers can also improve water management if (fiscal 1998) Projects. they have access to improved practices. In the Sahel, only 10­15 percent of rainwater is used for Beyond farmer participation, during the 1990s plant growth, and the remainder is lost through there was greater interest in promoting alterna- run-off, soil evaporation, or drainage (Heerink tive extension concepts, with stronger participa- 2005). Farmers need information on existing tory aspects, greater pluralism, and smaller public low-cost, low-capital technologies for water organizations (Anderson, Feder, and Ganguly harvesting. Knowledge transfer can also be 2006). Appendix H provides examples of alterna- important for the rehabilitation and maintenance tive service providers that have become popular. of existing irrigation infrastructure. Based on country reviews and project assess- Despite all the demand-driven and partnership ments, IEG finds that the Bank's borrowers in the approaches that the Bank has supported since it Africa Region appreciate the important role of abandoned T&V, a viable and sustainable option technology dissemination in increasing produc- to replace T&V has yet to be developed for Africa. tivity in agriculture. This is in agreement with the Apart from a range of combinations of pluralistic findings of earlier IEG work (IEG 1997b). approaches, some including Farmer Field Schools,27 there has been some A viable alternative to the Extending knowledge will undoubtedly continue new thinking on what is generally T&V extension approach to play an extremely important role in the dev- termed "rural innovation systems." has yet to be found. 5 9 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A This approach has been supported by FAO and The experience of other countries also the International Service for National Agricul- demonstrates that it is not easy to implement tural Research (ISNAR) and is aimed at identify- extension approaches that are dependent on ing constraints along the range of players in the strengthening producer organizations and on commodity chain to develop a framework for contracting the services of private or semi- prioritizing investments. The impact of this private service providers. The completion report somewhat different angle on an old problem for the Senegal Agricultural Services and Produc- remains to be tested, then evaluated for impact ers' Organizations Project (fiscal 1999) noted on both growth and poverty. that although a semi-private agency for agricul- tural advisory services has been created to Although creative ideas may be valuable, experi- replace the former extension services, the ence suggests there is some risk of grasping at agency was not completely accountable to fads. The Kenya agriculture sector review done producers. Moreover, activities that provided for this study found that in both the adoption direct support to producer organizations were and the wholesale and abrupt abandonment of not given priority in the work of the agency. T&V by the Bank, there was excessive reaction to Some of the latest supervision findings from fads or pendulum swings, and insufficient revisit- efforts such as the Kenya Agricultural Productiv- ing of the core question of how the poor might ity Project (fiscal 2004) note issues that still need be alternatively yet more efficiently served. to be sorted out, including the need to develop the capacity of service providers, how to ensure A newsletter of the nonprofit Sasakawa Africa transparency and fair competition in awarding Association (2005) noted that private contracting contracts in weak institutional environments, of agricultural advisory services has gained and how service fees are to be determined, momentum in Africa partly because organizations among others. such as the World Bank are championing this approach. The newsletter noted that key questions Maintaining the quality of Bank extension remain unanswered: "Will private contracting lead support, with multiple service providers, to improved conditions of employment for remains perhaps the greatest challenge. The contracted extension staff? Will there be greater appraisal document for the Zambia Agricultural accountability in responding to farmers' needs and Development Support Project (fiscal 2006) demands? Will cost recovery from farmers or from acknowledges, "In some instances, extension subsistence staple food crops be possible? Finally, service provided by NGOs has reduced the will larger proportions of farmers be reached control that the agribusiness companies have through contractual agreements on performance over the standard of service provided or the standards?" content of the technical advice and assistance being given. This has often resulted in inconsis- Pluralistic extension While pluralistic extension approaches tent advice being given, causing confusion and approaches, though have become very popular, their imple- having a negative impact on production. The popular, face several mentation faces several challenges. situation with NGO or donor involvement in challenges. The transition from completely public- extension services is exacerbated when the funded programs to alternative ex- project or funding ends and there is no sound tension modalities with improved incentives also exit strategy to ensure that service continues to requires a significant investment of time--on the be provided in a sustainable manner" (World order of decades (Chapman and Tripp 2003). Bank 2006m, p. 12). Uganda is in many respects at the forefront in Africa in developing a new demand- Of critical importance to high-quality extension And their sustainability driven program in agricultural ex- support is the training of extension service and cost effectiveness tension, and its experience illustrates providers. IEG's assessment of the Tanzania have yet to be established. some of the challenges (box 5.3). Second Agricultural Extension Project (fiscal 6 0 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T Box 5.3: New Uganda Extension System Improves Efficiency But Faces Challenges As the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) launched The midterm report recognizes that the program "will certainly in 2001 expands, it is expected to replace Uganda's old exten- face challenges as it scales up to nationwide coverage." Draw- sion system, which continues to function in the districts not ing on their work in Uganda, Ellis and Bahigwa (2003) note that covered by NAADS.a A midterm review of the program in late 2005 "while there has been a move away from top-down prescriptive found NAADS to be more cost-effective than the earlier system. support to sectors or subsectors, there is now far too great a re- Despite its apparent efficiency, the new system also faces sev- liance on an idealized concept of participatory processes in com- eral challenges, the report notes. These include inadequacy of munities to enforce good governance on the part of local councils service providers and resource constraints to implement NAADS and effective service delivery by public agents at the local level." effectively. Most of the funding support for NAADS currently comes Bahigwa and others (2005) are also concerned about the abil- from donors, but local governments and farmers are expected to ity of NAADS to reduce the disadvantages of the poor in compar- take on increasing responsibility over time. However, the many ison with the nonpoor. Finally, Whyte and Kyaddondo (2006) found stakeholders in the system have an imperfect understanding of the that despite successive initiatives, neither access to extension ser- NAADS principles and it is unclear whether the local governments vices nor technology adoption has reached 1970 levels. will have the resources to take responsibility for supporting NAADS. a. NAADS is expected to facilitate formation of local farmer groups and farmer forums at the subcounty, district, and national levels. The farmer groups are expected to articulate their needs and fill them through purchases from private sector providers. The services are to be paid by the public sector through the decentralized local gov- ernment institutions. 1997) notes that, at present, the strategy of Effective M&E of Bank-supported Training of extension "pluralism" appears to have an unspoken projects will be necessary to help service providers is subscript that suggests that the approach will determine whether demand-driven critically important. push private and NGO-supported extension and and partnership approaches will be farmer-funded extension as far as it can go. able to meet the needs of poor subsistence farmers. Private extension generally is skewed However, the shift to the private sector brings toward well-endowed regions and high-value additional problems. Private and NGO-based crops, while remote areas and poor produc- extension services currently rely on buying and ers, particularly those producing low-value crops supplementing public extension by paying salary and little marketable surplus, are poorly served supplements and travel. If public extension did (Muyanga and Jayne 2006). The Kenya agriculture slowly die, NGOs and the private sector would sector review undertaken for this study need alternative, more costly approaches to noted that extension in Kenya needs a Effective M&E will be access the same skills. In effect, they are free- realistic strategy and a clear role for the needed to assess the riding on the underutilized skills, training, and public element quite soon, otherwise it efficacy of demand- salaries of the public extension service. Al- will wither and it will not be possible to driven approaches for though this is efficient in the short term, it may bring it back. poor farmers. not be sustainable in the longer term. Contract- ing out extension makes it possible to take Post-T&V, it is unclear what a pluralistic approach to advantage of all the experience in the field, but extension will mean for the poor. It is also unclear does not eliminate government's role. In whether subsistence farmers (a large majority of addition to funding, government ensures quality whom are women) will be able to pay for the assurance, oversight, and provision of informa- service provided, at least in the near future.28 It is tion to contracted service providers (Muyanga also difficult to tell whether it will be possible for and Jayne 2006). The need to ensure an them to organize effectively to create "demand" for adequate connection with research is also extension services that will improve productivity of critical. cassava, sorghum, millet, and other food crops. 6 1 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A The Bank and policy makers need to compare ment Project in Côte d'Ivoire (fiscal 1997), which the cost effectiveness and appropriateness of has recently closed but for which there is no various public and private extension options, completion report yet; a Land Reform Support including radio and television, for handling Project in Zimbabwe (fiscal 2000), which did not different short- and long-run opportunities and become effective; and two active projects, Ghana challenges for food and cash crop production.29 Land Administration (fiscal 2004) and Malawi A recent compilation of case studies on Community-Based Rural Land Development extension by the Bank's ARD Department (World (fiscal 2004). In all other cases, support for land Bank 2004b) also highlights the need to develop reform is part of a wider environment or agricul- a better understanding of diverse approaches ture intervention. before reforms are undertaken.30 There is a need to exercise a measure of caution in scaling up the Some PRSCs, such as the PRSC2 in Tanzania demand-driven and partnership approaches (fiscal 2005), have also attempted to develop a before donors and borrowers can be reasonably strategic plan for implementation of land sure that the returns will be commensurate with reforms. In addition, a few emergency response the costs and that the new approaches will not interventions, such as the Eritrea Emergency have to be "rejected" in the future. This process Demobilization and Integration (fiscal 2001), of comparing cost effectiveness and appropriate- have attempted to increase access to land for ness does not have to be time consuming, but disabled soldiers, but it is too early to say how can be undertaken fairly quickly with critical successful these interventions have been. borrower input. Among the findings of IEG assessments and Land Reform Project Completion Reports is that land reforms Recent World Bank analytical work on land policy are important for ensuring broad-based growth. issues has contributed to the understanding of IEG's assessment of the Zimbabwe Second property rights regimes and their Structural Adjustment Project (fiscal 1993), in Bank analytical work on importance for agricultural develop- particular, noted that agricultural marketing land policy has ment. Moreover, anecdotal evidence reforms alone could not ensure such growth. contributed to better suggests that Bank policy advice has The skewed distribution of land needed to be understanding of helped put land issues on the politi- resolved because most of the benefits of the property rights regimes. cal agenda in many countries. For marketing reforms went to the few thousand example, the agriculture sector review commercial farms that were able to respond for Mali done for this study found that the quickly to them (IEG 2003d).31 The Bank appears government has rewritten the land tenure law to to have realized this long before the project was provide better land security and improve the assessed. Immediately following the marketing likelihood of private investments in the land, and reforms project, the Bank attempted to pilot an that this was undertaken in part because of the approach to land reform. However, implementa- Bank. In most countries, though, the Bank has tion of that intervention was not easy (box 5.4). found it very difficult to provide lending support for land reform because it is a politically, socially, The implementation of land reform interven- and culturally sensitive area. tions in other countries has also been compli- cated by socio-political factors. In the Côte IEG was able to build a list of projects that dealt d'Ivoire Rural Land Management Project the with land reform or land policy issues over the Bank provided support for titling of customary period 1991­2006 by combining research work rights. However, it was not easy to document all done by ARD and the Land Policy "secondary" rights of the groups within the There have been only four Thematic Group. During 1999­2006 community. As a result, the project merely free-standing land there were only four free-standing achieved a simplification of rights. This tended projects. "land" projects: a Rural Land Manage- to strengthen the position of the individual 6 2 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T landholder at the expense of the other right and enhances land tenure security. One lesson is that land holders (van den Brink and others 2005). In Supervision missions have noted that reforms are important to another example, the Malawi Community-Based the objective was ambitious for a five- broad-based growth. Rural Land Development Project (fiscal 2004) year project, and at best the project sought to increase the incomes of about 15,000 could be a first phase that laid the foundation for poor rural families by implementing a decentral- accelerating reforms in the sector. ized community-based and voluntary approach to land reform in southern Malawi. Progress Price and Marketing Reform toward the development objective was slow Reforming output and input prices and markets because of challenges in land acquisition and to improve the incentives for growth of agricul- delay in surveys of farms to be acquired, among ture has been a major area of Bank intervention other things. in Africa. While a significant part of this reform was attempted in the late The Bank has generally Bank project activities have generally shown 1980s and 1990s through policy advice underestimated the time inadequate appreciation of the time that is and structural and sectoral adjust- required to effect reform required to build consensus around sensitive ment credits (now called develop- around such a sensitive issues such as land reform. The Lesotho Agricul- ment policy lending), sector projects issue. ture Policy and Capacity Building Project (fiscal have also been important. The adjust- 1998) had a component for facilitating the ment reforms were meant to improve the development of a new land policy and legislation incentives for farmers to increase production by compatible with sustainable land use systems. reducing domestic market distortions and by While the government made significant progress encouraging private traders to replace with respect to land policy, the new legislation the inefficient state trading companies More than 30 countries was not enacted by project close. The project (box 5.5). Since 1980 more than 30 have undertaken design had not accounted for the time-consum- countries have undertaken agricul- agricultural policy ing stakeholder consultations required to reach tural policy reforms as part of the reforms since 1980. consensus on land legislation. broader adjustment agenda (Jayne and Jones 1997). In Ghana, the objective of the Land Administra- tion Project (fiscal 2004) was to develop a Ex-post analysis, based primarily on the findings sustainable and well-functioning land administra- of Project Performance Assessment Reports, the tion system that is fair, efficient, decentralized, portfolio review, country agriculture sector Box 5.4: Zimbabwe Pilot for Land Reform Fails to Take Off The Land Reform Support Project (fiscal 2000) in Zimbabwe was The completion note for the project noted that following the designed to pilot market-assisted land reform approaches. The amendment to the constitution and the Land Acquisition Act in project would have introduced a number of innovations for in- mid-2000, the government's land reform strategy moved away from creasing direct participation of the ultimate beneficiaries and land acquisition at market value and the piloting of community- Rural District Councils in the planning and implementation of re- driven models to an approach based on compulsory acquisition settlement schemes. at below-market value. The government lost the political will to Given the importance of the land issue in the country, the pro- go through with the agreed approach as the political situation in ject's effectiveness date was extended four times to allow gov- the country changed with the emergence of a strong opposition ernment to meet six (operational) conditions. However, these were party. These developments completely undermined the project not met and the credit was allowed to lapse. concept. 6 3 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Box 5.5: Agricultural Market Reform in Africa: The Expectations Structural adjustment began as a way to reform overspending in the agricultural sector. Broadly, the reforms were meant to: parastatals, but it evolved to achieve other ends as countries' 1. Liberalize input-output prices by reducing or eliminating sub- current account deficits increased. As the deflationary effects sidies on agricultural inputs, realigning domestic crop prices of higher import prices became clear, removing other price dis- with world prices, eliminating pan-seasonal and pan-territorial tortions (subsidies and taxes) and improving the regulatory en- pricing, and reducing exchange rate overvaluation. vironment for private entrepreneurs also became important. 2. Remove regulatory controls in input and output markets, lift- These measures were to improve the efficiency of resource al- ing restrictions on the internal movement of food crops and location by having price signals accurately reflect their real relaxing quantitative controls such as delivery quotas and li- values to society and by enabling private entrepreneurs to com- censing arrangements. pete with and even replace parastatals. 3. Restructure public enterprises and withdraw marketing The agriculture sector was important in the reform agenda for boards from pricing and marketing activities and narrow two reasons. First, it represented a substantial component of do- their role to more supportive activities. mestic production in most African countries, and supply response in the sector was a crucial determinant of the economy's response The expected long-run outcomes were: to changing incentives. Second, most economists and policy mak- 4. Incentives for farmers are improved by increasing product ers were convinced that trade and sector policies had been dis- prices and decreasing input costs, principally by encourag- criminating against the agricultural sector. Redressing this bias ing private traders to substitute for the state trading com- became a priority of the structural reform agenda. A healthy pat- panies. tern of structural adjustment, based on exports and income ex- 5. Private investment is expanded. pansion rather than on imports and demand contraction, was 6. Gains made in economic efficiency by eliminating price dis- expected to stimulate strong agriculture sector performance. In most tortions and input price subsidies and the control of imports. African countries, Bank-supported adjustment investment proj- 7. Trade balances are improved by stimulating exports and re- ects sought to phase out the provision of agricultural services bet- ducing imports. ter done by the private sector and support revision of regulations 8. Agricultural production and incomes for farmers are im- to provide an enabling environment for private sector investment proved; better food security. Sources: Sanders and others 1996; Mellor 1998; Kherallah and others 2002; study research. reviews, and the evidence in the literature, finds several other African countries generally im- that reforms have been pursued to varying proved the macroeconomic environment and degrees in different countries and points to both provided greater fiscal discipline through ration- positive and negative influences flowing from the alization of the role of the public sector and reform process. There were variable results promotion of a market-based exchange rate. across countries and crops. Although difficult to According to IEG's 2003 Annual Review of clearly categorize, there was comparatively more Development Effectiveness (ARDE; IEG 2004b), success achieved on some aspects than others. policies in Africa have, on average, improved (appendix J summarizes reforms and achieve- modestly, and those improvements have held. ments from Bank credits). In the literature there Analysis of country policy and institutional is consensus (Eicher 1999; Mkandawire and assessment (CPIA) data shows that overall CPIA Soludo 1999 as referenced in Kheral- ratings have improved for Africa since the late The reforms have been lah and others 2002; IFPRI 2000) that 1990s, but they remain below those of other pursued to varying the reform program fell short of Regions. IEG's project assessment for the Tan- degrees and had both achieving its expected outcome. zania Agriculture Sector Management Project positive and negative (fiscal 1994) concludes that in the broader influences. The reform process in Tanzania and institutional development sense, the "rules of 6 4 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T the game" in Tanzania have changed substantially and phyto-sanitary standards in global Reforms led to the in a positive direction over the past decade, and markets is an even bigger challenge for withdrawal of marketing the Bank project can claim to have contributed Africa. There is a growing awareness of boards from pricing and to this change. the need for supply chain coherence marketing in some and efficiency in export marketing. countries. The reforms also led to the withdrawal of market- While the Bank has been helping some ing boards from pricing and marketing in several countries in this area (Senegal, for example), countries, relaxation of quantitative controls, and there is still a long way to go. removal of regulatory controls in input and output markets. These changes considerably Perhaps the biggest shortcoming is The reform process also improved the incentives for production of some that the reform process had limited boosted nontraditional traditional export crops such as cotton. Growers impact on food production. The aver- crops, but had only of these crops in several countries are able to age annual growth rate for agriculture limited impact on food receive a greater share of the world price for the value added was negative throughout production. products (see appendix I for the story of cotton the 1980s and 1990s (IFPRI 2000). In sector reform). The few studies available, some most reforming countries the private sector did by the World Bank (Baffes 2005), generally not step in to fill the vacuum when the public confirm the positive change in marketing, partic- sector withdrew. The portfolio review found that ularly in cotton. at least 30 percent of the ICRs reviewed raised this issue as a concern. Overall, the picture was variable across countries and crops. For example, coffee production is The private sector did not step in because of the reported to have increased in Uganda after the prohibitive risks, high transaction costs, lack of liberalization, while in Cameroon the policy re- access to information, and absence of contract forms had a negative impact on the cocoa and and property right laws (IFPRI 2000). The project coffee sectors (box 5.6). IEG's assessment of the assessment of the Ethiopia National Fertilizer Uganda Agricultural Sector Adjustment Credit Sector Project (fiscal 1995) found that the proj- (fiscal 1991) found that the project supported the ect was not able to achieve its core objective very successful shift from the Coffee Board of promoting a competitive fertilizer market marketing monopoly to licensed private coffee because the private sector, already operating traders. Following the change in marketing, coffee in a concentrated and government-dominated farmers, by the end of the project, were receiving market, was squeezed out, and importing and 65 percent of the export price, compared with 30 distributing fertilizer became exclusively a percent before. In countries such as Mozambique, government domain. "The inefficiency and mis- the story of cashews is much more complicated, use that prevailed during subsidy regimes as discussed in chapter 4. prevalent in the pre-reform period have now been replaced by low profitability and high risk The reform process also gave a boost to exports of fertilizer use" (IFDC 2006). of nontraditional crops such as flowers from Kenya and mangoes from Mali. Today these crops Input prices for the farmer rose dramatically. The represent a small but growing share of agricul- value-cost ratios for a number of crops in several tural value added in several countries. The private West African countries are reported to have sector has been playing an important role in this declined since the 1980s, with most area. As with the rest of the agriculture sector, food crops having values of less than 2 The private sector did not however, continued growth in nontraditional in the mid-1990s (Heerink 2005).32 step in because of high exports is challenged by weak institutions, poor Many otherwise viable technology transaction costs, lack of transportation, and high input prices. Competi- options for Africa produced by past access to information, tion from countries outside of Africa is also a research remain underexploited be- and absence of contract factor. Addressing increasingly stringent sanitary cause of high input and low output and property laws. 6 5 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A Box 5.6: Negative Impacts of Policy Sequencing onTraditional Export Crop Sectors in Cameroon The Bank played a significant role in the liberalization of cocoa producer costs but also reduced availability because of the inad- and coffee marketing in Cameroon. In its first Structural Ad- equately developed private sector. Fungicide control of cocoa justment Loan to the country it initiated the breakup of the Na- blackpod disease fell dramatically, from over 30 million packets of tional Marketing Board (ONCPB) through loan conditionality. fungicide distributed free by the state in the mid-1980s to less The reforms also called for devaluation, which finally occurred than 3 million purchased from private suppliers in 1993. in January 1994. Unfortunately, because of the political economy Finally, when devaluation came in 1994 and doubled nominal of liberalization and the devaluation, the sequencing of these re- producer prices, the supply response was muted by a decline in forms was less than ideal for cocoa and coffee producers. the productive capacity of cocoa and coffee plantations, which had The removal of the 50 percent subsidy on fertilizers was the first been, at best, minimally maintained under the policy regime from policy reform implemented. Subsidies were gradually phased out 1989 to 1994. from 1988 to 1992. This was followed in 1990 by a 40 percent cut In sum, the unintentional effect of the structural adjustment con- in the official producer prices for coffee and cocoa by the ONCPB, ditionality was to seriously handicap Cameroon's smallholder ex- which was unable to maintain stable producer prices in the face port sector by a significant depreciation of farmers' tree stock. of the overvalued CFA franc and following the depletion of its re- When prices in the mid- and late-1990s rose, farmers were unable serves by a fiscally strapped government. to respond robustly. Producers responded by significantly curtailing resources al- Instead of asking where Cameroon's future comparative ad- located to cocoa and coffee agroforests, including fertilizers. With vantage was likely to lie in the late 1980s and 1990s, when com- world coffee and cocoa prices at historic lows, state-adminis- modity prices were at historic lows, and perhaps deciding that the tered panterritorial pricing was phased out in 1992 for coffee, but economically important coffee and cocoa sectors of smallholder not until 1995 for cocoa. Price liberalization at a time of historically producers might have required support to help them adjust to a low world prices and an overvalued exchange rate resulted in farm temporary shock in world commodity markets, the Bank pushed gate prices that were less than half their nominal 1988 levels. At for its standard liberalization package. As a result, the country wit- these prices, many farmers did not even harvest their coffee. nessed a serious extensification of its coffee and cocoa agro- At the same time, the liberalization of fertilizer markets and the forestry systems. de facto liberalization of pesticide markets not only increased Source: Essama-Nssah and Gockowski 2000. prices (InterAcademy Council 2004). Analysts the cotton and other parastatals further wor- note that in promoting agricultural develop- sened access to fertilizers. For example, the Mali ment, African governments have an important agriculture sector review found that both (cotton role to play in input-output market information and cereals) crop types received input, credit, systems, tax reforms, and regional cooperation and extension support from the cotton parastatal where markets are too small to attract private in its area of operation. However, the parastatal investments. When these services are missing, narrowed its range of activities to focus on core the private sector cannot grow to its potential cotton operations in the late 1990s, and the (Breman and Debrah 2003). support for cereal crops was discontinued. As a result, fertilizer use for maize and other cereals Most food in Africa is produced for home declined sharply between 1999 and 2000. consumption by women farmers, who are not likely to be directly affected by the positive gains The large imports of cereals undertaken by in the macroeconomic environment flowing several countries to meet the needs of the out of the reforms. Farmers were, domestic market have led to a serious drain of Farmers were negatively however, negatively affected by the foreign reserves in many countries in Africa. As a affected by high fertilizer rise in fertilizer prices. The rationaliza- result, the expected improvement in trade prices. tion and privatization of the work of balance noted in box 5.5 did not materialize. 6 6 T H E BA N K ' S C O N T R I B UT I O N -- A T H E M AT I C AS S E S S M E N T High input prices have also adversely affected that were previously carried out by High input prices have export crops. Before the reforms, particularly in parastatals in the economy." adversely affected export West Africa, the parastatals dealing with crops crops. such as cotton used to meet the input and Tshibaka's finding is supported by the credit needs of the farmers and assured them a evidence from the recent project assessment of secure market for their outputs. With privatiza- the Agriculture Sector Management Project in tion, producers of export crops in some Tanzania (fiscal 1994). The assessment notes that countries are now faced with the same "the issue was not merely what activities could be constraint as food crop producers with regard best carried out by the central ministry(s), it was to access to inputs and credits. For example, the also what activities could be best carried out by Senegal Country Assistance Evaluation (IEG the private sector, by partnerships, or by more 2006f) found that the private sector failed to independent commodity organizations, given the engage in input supply, commercialization, or capacity of these alternative service mechanisms marketing following liquidation of the ground- at the time" (World Bank 2007d, p. 8). While this nut parastatal that had been active in distribu- emerges as a fundamental weakness in design in tion of seeds and fertilizers and the collection of the Tanzania project, it was symptom of a wider groundnuts. This reduced farmers' access to problem with design of most similar projects. critical inputs. IEG's 1998 Kenya CAE (IEG 2000b) also noted While in some countries organizations of the failure of the Bank and borrower to focus producers have come up with Bank support to sufficiently on the capacity of the private sector address this issue on behalf of their members, to pick up the roles left by divestiture. For this has not happened across crops or in all example, the removal of the National Cereal and countries. One reason has been the time it takes Produce Board (NCPB) monopoly, something to build efficient producer organizations. Also, that had been asked for since 1980, was not given the diversified cropping patterns in Africa, accompanied by enough analysis of it has not always been possible for farmers to what would happen afterward, given Results fell short because form single-commodity associations. the poorly developed trader and of inadequate analysis, storage network. While some com- weak political support, Why did results fall short of expectations? panies did invest for a short period, and insufficient Because of inadequate background analytical the continued threat of NCPB inter- appreciation of system work, weak political support, and insufficient vention has kept them out of new incentives. appreciation of the system's incentives. investment for the past 10 years. With regard to inadequate background analytical The Senegal Country Assistance Evaluation work, Tshibaka (2003, pp. 275­76), commenting (IEG 2006f) also notes, "A major issue that on the privatization process supported under delayed the liberalization of the groundnut Bank projects, notes that "Little attempt was sector has been whether the reforms could made to identify functions that are best have adverse distributional consequences for performed by government agencies and those poor farmers. The Bank should have under- that are best handled by the private sector or to taken analytical work on these issues sooner, assess the private sector base in each country given the importance of this sector to rural concerned. The failure to examine these and livelihoods" (p. 25). other related key questions has made it difficult for the designers of the structural adjustment Further, achievement of the full benefits of the reforms to propose appropriate policy measures process required active government and donor and actions that could help strengthen and foster support to develop and integrate markets, not the development of the private sector in order to simply "liberalize" them.33 This meant attention enable it to effectively handle various functions to the development of infrastructure to ensure 6 7 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A coordinated and sustainable systems of input implementation, and even reversals in several delivery, farm finance, and reliable output cases. markets, not simply trusting the market to take over. At the sector level, policy makers saw incentives in terms of changing prices, whereas individual As already seen in chapter 4, the negative impact farmers were motivated by considerations of that weak political support and capacity in the income, of which price and costs are a part borrower can have on the success of the reform (Donovan and Casey 1998). A large number of process was not well appreciated. The weak farmers whose product never enters the market political will among several governments led did not benefit from improved output prices, but to partial adoption of reforms and delayed were adversely affected by input prices. 6 8 Chapter 6 Peanuts harvested in Mali. Photo by Ray Witlin, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Findings and Recommendations Key Findings A gricultural development in Africa is a complex technical, economic, so- cial, and political challenge that has to be overcome if the Region is to reduce extreme poverty and hunger--to meet the first Millennium Development Goal. · Agricultural land in Africa falls into many agro- erty rights become more important. Land own- ecological zones and is generally character- ership in most countries in Africa is deter- ized by poor soils, highly variable rainfall, and mined by socio-cultural and political factors. frequent droughts. Farmer access to irrigation Social factors also determine the division of and transport infrastructure is limited, as is agricultural labor between men and women. their access to credit, improved seeds, and fertilizers. Extension support for improved soil · Political commitment to develop the agriculture and water management practices is weak. The sector has generally been low. Governments majority of farmers are smallholders with 0.5 have used agriculture more as a source of re- to 2.0 hectares of land and rely on diversified sources for growth and have not invested ad- coping strategies that involve planting several equately in its development. Government crops with different maturity periods and keep- capacity is weak, and exchange rate and mar- ing livestock. Total agricultural output in Africa ket distortions and poor incentives have lim- consists primarily of food crops; agricultural ex- ited private sector development and have also port crops account for less than 10 percent of kept farmers from taking risks and intensifying total production. agricultural production. · Increases in agricultural production in the Re- Given the diverse constraints to agricultural develop- gion have mainly come from area expansion ment in Africa, the strategy for the development of rather than yield increases and have not kept the sector needs to be multifaceted, with coordinated pace with population growth. In recent years, interventions across a range of activities. however, expansion too has stagnated, indi- cating that land frontiers may have been · Farmers have to be convinced that it will be to reached, at least in some countries. As land be- their advantage to take on the newer tech- comes scarce, issues of ownership and prop- nologies before they will undertake intensive 7 1 WO R L D BA N K AS S I STA N C E TO AG R I C U LT U R E I N S U B - SA H A R A N A F R I C A agriculture to improve productivity and culti- tural development, the institution has not been vate new crop varieties that are riskier and de- able to take a long-term strategic approach to pend on the availability of fertilizers and water. drought and food security. As a result, though To do this, a number of factors need to come there have been areas of comparatively greater together at the same time, or at least appear success--research, for example--results have in an optimal sequence: improved seeds, water, been limited because of weak linkage with ex- credit, and access to markets; good extension tension and limited availability of such com- advice; and adequate returns through remu- plementary inputs as fertilizers and water. nerative prices for inputs and outputs. · The Bank's data systems and support for M&E · Public-private and donor partnerships need to have been insufficient to adequately inform be developed/strengthened, with actors con- the institution's effort to develop agriculture tributing in areas of comparative advantage. in Africa across a broad front. Current data systems do not allow the institution to track in The Bank has had limited success in helping address enough detail how much is being provided the challenges of agricultural development in Africa. for development of specific activities related to agriculture. M&E at the project level has been · The institution's strategy for the development of limited value in answering fundamental of the agriculture sector has been part of its questions about outcome, impact, and effi- rural strategy, and over time the importance of ciency, such as who benefited, which crops agriculture in the Bank's rural strategy has de- received support and how, what has been the clined. While the broader rural focus by the comparative cost effectiveness, and what is Bank from the mid-1980s was justified, an un- the appropriate attribution of the gains. intended result was that it led to less focused attention on the need for various activities that Recommendations are critical to agricultural development in rural The Bank has an opportunity to contribute in a space to come together at the same time or to major way to development of African agriculture take place in some optimal sequence. Both because it is one of the largest sources of develop- arising from and contributing to this, techni- ment finance, and no other international donor cal skills to support agricultural development has the Bank's ability to provide policy advice to adequately have also declined over time. governments. To effectively support the imple- mentation of the Africa Action Plan and its · The Bank's diagnosis of a country's develop- appropriate focus on agricultural development as ment status and priorities is carried out pri- a key priority, IEG recommends that the Bank: marily through analytical work. Until very recently this has been limited and not readily 1. Focus attention to achieve improvements in available. Nor have the findings from analyti- agricultural productivity: cal work strategically informed Bank client pol- · Establish realistic goals for expansion of ir- icy dialogue and lending program design. rigation and recognize the need to increase productivity of rain-fed agriculture through · The Bank's lending support has shown little improvements in land quality, as well as recognition of the need to develop agricul- water and drought management. ture in a multifaceted way, but has been "sprin- · Help design efficient mechanisms, includ- kled" across agricultural activities such as ing public-private partnerships, to provide research, extension, credit, seeds, and policy farmers with critical inputs, including fer- reforms, with little apparent recognition of tilizers, water, credit, and seeds. the synergies among them. Partly because it has · Support the development of marketing and not taken a multifaceted approach to agricul- transport infrastructure. 7 2 F I N D I N G S A N D R E C O M M E N DAT I O N S 2. Improve its work on agriculture: 3. Establish benchmarks for measuring progress: · Increase the quantity and quality of analyt- · Improve data systems to better track activ- ical work on agriculture and ensure that ities supported by the Bank. policy advice and lending are grounded in · Strengthen M&E to report on project ac- its findings. tivities in various agro-ecological zones and · Support public expenditure analyses to as- for different crops and farmer categories, in- sess resource availability for agriculture and cluding women. to help set Bank priorities. · Develop a system to coordinate agriculture · Rebuild its technical skills, based on a com- activities in a country with road access, mar- prehensive assessment of current gaps. ket proximity, and soil conditions. 7 3 Woman waters single plant, Ethiopia. Photo by Ray Witlin, courtesy of World Bank Photo Library. Appendixes APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY The evaluation used four main instruments: a sector are agriculture marketing and trade (YA) review of the Bank's lending and nonlending and agro-industry (YB). activities; country-level agriculture sector reviews; a review of relevant Bank and non-Bank literature; As noted by ARD, problems with the Bank's and a survey of Bank staff. In addition, IEG con- sector coding system may cause underreporting ducted 13 assessments of agricultural projects in of lending to the agriculture sector. Investments various African countries during fiscal 2007. for agriculture agency reform, land administra- tion, and rural finance in particular may not be This appendix describes these instruments. Also fully captured by sector codes. included is a section on how IEG identified the Bank's strategic approach in Africa's agriculture In the Bank's database, sector codes are mutually sector. exclusive, but thematic codes are not. Therefore, thematic codes have been used to identify Portfolio Review projects for more detailed examination, but not The portfolio review was a desk study of projects for purposes of reporting on lending amounts. in the Sub-Saharan Africa agriculture portfolio. The study team first identified all Africa agricul- Selection of sample for portfolio review ture projects, and then selected a sample for a The database identified 262 agriculture projects detailed review of appraisal and completion approved for Africa during fiscal 1991­2006. documents. However, the database does not recognize a supplemental project as an additional project-- Identifying the agriculture portfolio only the loan/credit amount is included. The The review covers the 15-year period from fiscal logic is that since the parent project is already in 1991 to 2006 and is restricted to projects funded the system, there is no need to count the supple- by the IBRD and IDA. Using World Bank data, the mental separately. The IEG review therefore study team identified the Africa agriculture included supplemental projects when their portfolio using standard Operations Policy and parent project was approved before fiscal 1991 as Country Services (OPCS) sector codes, consis- a separate project. If the parent was approved tent with the methodology used by the Agricul- during the study period (fiscal 1991­2006), the ture and Rural Development (ARD) Department supplemental was not counted as a separate to report on lending trends in the sector. The project, because this would have led to double agriculture codes are grouped under two counting. Hence, 10 additional supplemental sectors: Agriculture, Fishing, and Forestry and projects were added to the identified universe, Industry and Trade. The subsectors under the for a total of 272 projects. former are agriculture, extension, and research (AB); animal production (AJ); crops (AH); A stratified random sample of 71 projects was forestry (AT); irrigation and drainage (AI); and selected from the universe of 272 projects for general agriculture, fishing, and forestry (AZ). further review. The stratification used two Relevant subsectors under the industry and trade criteria: the number of subsectors and country 77 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA type. The sample comprises 54 investment capacity, improved adoption of fertilizers, im- projects and 17 adjustment projects. During the proved credit access, increased access to ex- review of the sample, we discovered that two tension services, sale of parastatals, increased projects had been miscoded as agriculture. One, seedling production, and so on Benin Urban Rehabilitation and Management 3. Impact indicators--such as increased productiv- (fiscal 1992, P000097), was coded as AI, but the ity, increased land fertility, increased cultivated component related to cleaning of storm gutters area, increased food security, improved trade bal- was not agriculture-related irrigation and drain- ance, increased farmer income, and the like. age. The other, Kenya El Niño Emergency Project (fiscal 1999, P056595) was coded as AI, but The review focused only on agriculture-related project components related to reconstruction of indicators. The actual share of agriculture varies rural water supply (wells, culverts) were not for considerably across projects, so we did not water for agriculture. These projects were quantify the number of indicators included in the replaced with the next two consecutive projects project documents, and the inclusion of even a in the random number list: Uganda Agriculture single indicator is recorded in the analysis. Sector Management (fiscal 2002, P073604) and Eritrea Emergency Demobilization and Reinte- Human Resources data: Data for staff mapped to gration (fiscal 1996, P037582). ARD in the Africa Region were obtained from the Human Resources (HR) Department. Staff was Other components of the portfolio review categorized as either economists and generalists IEG Implementation Completion Report (ICR) re- or technical, based on their title. views: Extensive analysis of project performance was done for the 144 completed Africa agricul- Review of Quality Assurance Group (QAG) data: QAG ture projects using IEG ICR reviews. The analysis Quality at Entry Assessment (QEA) and Quality focused on lessons learned from agriculture of Supervision Assessment (QSA) reports were projects, reasons for less than satisfactory Bank reviewed for all Africa agriculture projects in the and borrower performance, and sustainability portfolio that have been assessed by QAG. issues. Thirty-seven projects were reviewed for QEA and 43 for QSA. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) analysis: In January 1996, clarifications from OPCS provided Country-Level Reviews guidance to staff on preparing indicators. Accordingly, the 54 investment projects in the CAS/PRSP review sample of 71 were examined for the extent to CAS review: To assess the evolution of the focus which the OPCS guidance had been internalized on agriculture and agriculture-related issues in in project design and implementation and how the Bank's country strategies, two CASs (Country the trend shifted after 1996. The indicators were Assistance Strategies) were reviewed from each categorized into three groups: of the countries. The selection was made based on the availability of a CAS for a country from two 1. Output indicators--mainly quantitative targets periods, one from the 1990s and one from the such as number of markets established, num- 2000s. Because Sierra Leone only has a CAS ber of extension workers, number of small- during the latter period, the comparison could holders, number of associations established, not be made for that country. Thirty CASs were number of farmers/beneficiaries reached, num- reviewed for the remaining 15 countries, for a ber of loans, number of village banks estab- total of 31 CASs. lished, reduction in fertilizer subsidies, and the like PRSP review: Sixteen African countries had 2. Outcome indicators--for instance, improved ca- completed Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers pacity of relevant ministry, improved research (PRSPs) as of July 2006. The selected documents 78 APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY were used to assess the borrowers' focus on Literature Review agriculture and agriculture-related issues. A review of the relevant Bank and non-Bank literature was undertaken to provide a theoreti- In-depth program review cal basis for understanding African agriculture The Bank's total lending program was reviewed in and the Bank's role in its development. The four countries where there has been significant literature review also provided a means for Bank lending for agriculture. This was done to gain "testing" the findings emerging from the portfo- an in-depth understanding of the Bank's contribu- lio analysis and the country-level reviews. tion to development of agriculture in those coun- tries over time. For this analysis, two countries were A significant amount of research on issues relevant selected in East Africa (Kenya and Malawi) and two for agriculture and its development in Africa has in West Africa (Cameroon and Nigeria). been undertaken worldwide, including work by the World Bank. Given the diversity of conditions Project reviews in Africa along with the varying potential for the The review drew upon the findings of 13 project growth of agriculture in the 47 countries in the assessments (PPARs) carried out in fiscal 2007: Region, such triangulation of evidence is essential to answer the evaluation questions. · Ethiopia: National Fertilizer Sector (ICR in fis- cal 2003) The review also built on relevant IEG evaluations, · Ethiopia: Seed System Development (ICR in fis- sector and thematic studies, and CASs, all of cal 2003) which are listed in the references at the end of · Madagascar: Agricultural Extension Program this report. Support (ICR in fiscal 2001) · Madagascar: Irrigation Rehabilitation (PCR in Staff Survey fiscal 1995) This instrument sought the views of relevant Bank · Madagascar: Second Irrigation Rehabilitation staff on internal factors and incentives related to Project (ICR in fiscal 2001) the Bank's assistance for agriculture in Africa. The · Malawi: Emergency Drought Recovery Project staff survey was preceded by structured interviews (ICR in fiscal 2005) of key staff in the Region and in ARD, which · Mali: Agricultural Trading and Processing Pro- helped inform the design of the questionnaire. A motion Pilot (ICR in fiscal 2003) total of 258 headquarters and country office staff · Mali: National Agricultural Research (ICR in and consultants were identified for the survey fiscal 2002) using the following criteria: · Mali: Pilot Private Irrigation Promotion (ICR in fiscal 2004) · ARD anchor staff and ARD-mapped staff in · Tanzania: Agricultural Research Project 2 (ICR agriculture in fiscal 2005) · Water anchor staff and water-mapped staff in · Tanzania: Agricultural Sector Management (ICR agriculture (excluding water and sanitation en- in fiscal 2002) gineers, specialists, and financial analysts) · Tanzania: National Extension Project 2 (ICR in · Staff who are not primarily agriculture experts fiscal 2004) but have in some way contributed to agricul- · Zambia: Emergency Drought Recovery Pro- tural development in Africa, as part of a team ject (ICR in fiscal 2006). working on agriculture projects or on relevant transport, trade, or other sector investments; These assessments provided the review with structural adjustment credits; sector work; or lessons of experience from the field as well as the research. perspectives of government officials and other stakeholders on the Bank's agriculture support The survey was e-mailed to the staff. The results in the countries involved. of the survey were shared with management in 79 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the Region and in ARD. The response rate and strategy documents. The documents cover a survey results are reported in appendix F. wide range of issues and their treatment differs across documents. Table A.1, based on IEG's How the Bank's Strategic Approach in comparative analysis of the strategy docu- the Agriculture Sector Was Identified ments, shows the set of critical constraints that The broad strategic goals the Bank has pursued defined the Bank's strategic approach to in African agriculture over the period fiscal agricultural development in Africa during the 1991­2006 were extracted from five rural period. Table A.1: Identification of Key Constraints/ Priority Areas for Agricultural Development Action to A Strategy to Impact: Africa Reaching the Africa Develop Agriculture Vision to Region Rural Rural Poor, Action Plan, Constraint/priority in Africa, 1993 Action, 1997 Strategy, 2002 2003 2005 Need for price and market reform X X X X Research X X X X X Extension X X X X Natural resource management Soil degradation/conservation, soil fertility X X X X X Water management systems/ conservation X X X X Irrigation X X X X X Drought is covered but risk and vulnerability are seen as a broader issue X X X X Food security X X X Agro-ecological diversity X X X X Transportation infrastructure X X X X X Credit X X X X Land policy/reform X X X X 80 APPENDIX B: CATEGORIZATION OF COUNTRIES BY FACTOR ENDOWMENTS AND AGRICULTURE'S SHARE OF GDP Table B.1: Cross-Country Typology for Sub-Saharan Africa Agriculture's share Agriculture's share above average below average (34% GDP) (34% GDP) Middle-income Falling GDP Rising GDP Falling GDP Rising GDP countries per capita per capita per capita per capita (> US$1,000 (1991­2001) (1991­2001) (1991­2001) (1991­2001) per capita) More favorable agricultural conditions (top two-thirds of FAO country-level farming system assessment) Coastal country The Gambia Benin Côte d'Ivoire Kenya Mauritius Togo Ghana Mozambique South Africa Guinea-Bissau Senegal Tanzania Landlocked country Burkina Faso Lesotho Swaziland Ethiopia Zimbabwe Malawi Uganda Mineral-rich country Cameroon Sudan Angola Guinea Equatorial Guinea Central African Rep. Congo, Rep. of Nigeria Congo, Dem. Rep. of Zambia Sierra Leone Less-favorable agricultural conditions (lowest third of FAO country-level farming system assessment) Comoros Mali Madagascar Mauritania Cape Verde Burundi Rwanda Botswana Niger Chad Gabon Namibia Source: Diao and others 2006. Note: Of the 47 African countries, the table does not include the following: Eritrea, Liberia, São Tomé and Principe, Seychelles, and Somalia. 81 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table B.2: Share of Agriculture and Agricultural GDP Growth Rates Agriculture's share of GDP (percent) Average annual growth (percent) Country 1990 2004 1990­2000 2000­04 Better performers (average annual growth rate for 2000­04 greater than 5%) Angolaa 17.9 8.5 ­1.4 13.7 Mozambiqueb 34.1 21.2 4.8 8.9 Niger 35.3 0.0 3.0 6.4 Cameroon 24.0 40.0 5.5 6.0 Benin 36.1 32.1 5.8 5.7 Congo, Republic of 12.9 6.0 1.0 5.5 Nigeria 32.4 16.3 3.4 5.3 Burkina Faso 27.8 30.8 4.2 5.1 Gabon 7.3 8.1 ­1.4 5.1 Mali 44.1 33.4 2.6 5.1 Ghana 44.8 35.3 3.4 5.0 Medium performers (average annual growth rate for 2000­04 greater than 2% and less than 5%) Tanzania 42.0 42.3 3.2 4.9 Rwanda 32.5 41.2 2.6 4.7 Guinea 23.4 24.3 4.6 4.5 Uganda 53.3 29.5 3.7 3.9 Guinea-Bissau 56.9 63.4 3.9 3.3 Central African Republic 43.8 57.0 3.8 3.0 Mauritius 11.0 5.4 ­0.5 2.8 Togo 33.8 41.2 4.0 2.7 Poor performers (average annual growth rate for 2000­04 less than 2%) Burundi 51.1 36.1 ­1.6 1.9 Kenya 25.3 23.9 1.9 1.9 Malawi 38.5 33.7 8.6 1.8 Botswana 4.5 2.3 ­1.2 1.5 Madagascar 26.1 26.2 1.8 1.3 Zambia 18.2 18.8 4.2 1.3 Namibia 10.6 9.0 3.8 1.2 Ethiopia 50.7 42.2 1.9 0.9 Côte d'Ivoire 32.5 22.1 3.3 0.5 Senegal 19.9 17.0 2.9 0.0 Gambia, The 24.3 30.0 3.3 ­0.2 Mauritania 26.6 17.0 4.4 ­0.3 Swaziland 10.8 6.5 1.2 ­0.3 South Africa 4.2 2.7 1.0 ­0.4 Eritrea 12.6 1.5 ­0.5 82 APPENDIX B: CATEGORIZATION OF COUNTRIES Agriculture's share of GDP (percent) Average annual growth (percent) Country 1990 2004 1990­2000 2000­04 Lesotho 19.6 15.5 2.0 ­1.8 Zimbabwe 14.8 14.2 4.3 ­9.0 Average annual growth rate not available Cape Verde 14.4 6.8 -- -- Chad 27.9 23.5 4.4 -- Comoros 39.4 36.2 -- -- Congo, Democratic Republic of 30.1 47.4 1.2 -- Equatorial Guinea 58.9 -- -- -- Liberia 54.4 54.9 -- -- São Tomé and Principe 27.6 18.5 -- -- Seychelles 4.8 2.6 -- -- Sierra Leone 44.0 43.2 ­13.0 -- Somalia 62.7 -- -- -- Sudan -- 33.2 9.2 -- Source: 2006 World Development Indicators. Note: For some countries high growth in agriculture is due to returns from activities in the forestry sector such as logging and growth in export crops. a. The high growth rate is due to the process of rehabilitation and reactivations after conflict. b. Agricultural growth has mainly been driven by the post-conflict resettlement of refugees in the rural areas and the resulting expansion in labor and land (World Bank 2006g). Table B.3: Agricultural GDP Growth Rates (countries with average annual growth rate over 3%) Average annual growth (percent) Country 1990­2000 2000­04 Benin 5.8 5.7 Burkina Faso 4.2 5.1 Cameroon 5.5 6 Central African Republic 3.8 3 Ghana 3.4 5 Guinea 4.6 4.5 Guinea-Bissau 3.9 3.3 Mozambiquea 4.8 8.9 Niger 3 6.4 Nigeria 3.4 5.3 Tanzania 3.2 4.9 Uganda 3.7 3.9 Source: 2006 World Development Indicators. Note: For some countries high growth in agriculture is due to returns from activities in the forestry sector such as logging and growth in export crops. a. Agricultural growth has mainly been driven by the post-conflict resettlement of refugees in the rural areas and resulting expansion in labor and land (World Bank 2006g). 83 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table B.4: Selected Agricultural Indicators for Africa, Asia, and Latin America Indicator Sub-Saharan Africaa South Asia Latin America Irrigated area (% of cropland) 1989­91 3.6 33 11.1 2001­03 3.6 39 11.4 Fertilizer consumption (100 gms per hectare of arable land) 1989­91 142 745 602 2000­02 123 1,066 895 Agricultural machinery (tractors per 100 sq. km of arable land) 1989­91 20 62 121 2001­03 13 130 123 Cereal yield (kilograms per hectare)b 1993­95 1,034 2,128 2,493 2003­05 1,087 2,505 3,159 Food production index (1999­2001 = 100) 1992­94 81.7 80.3 79.1 2002­04 105.9 103.5 110.4 Agricultural productivityc Agriculture value added per worker (2000$) 1992­94 294 364 2,234 2002­04 341 401 2,812 Source: 2006 World Development Indicators. a. Includes South Africa. b. Cereals include wheat, rice, maize, barley, oats, rye, millet, sorghum, buckwheat, and mixed grains. c. Calculations include cash crops and forest and fisheries. 84 APPENDIX C: AGRO-ECOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, AND GROWTH RATES OF FOOD AND CASH CROPS Table C.1: Extent of Major Climatic Zones and Agricultural Land Use in Africa Total area, Annual million hectares rainfall Land use, farming systems, and main Climate zone or region (percent) (mm) agricultural constraints Desert 822.0 <100 Nomadic pastoralists and hunter/gatherers, camel, (29.1) sheep, goats. Too dry and hot for agriculture. Arid 844.0 100­400 Nomadic pastoralists, sheep, goats, camel, and some North Africa and areas in southern Africa (17.1) cattle. Main crops are rice, wheat, barley, and sorghum. Production-based irrigation. High animal population, overgrazing, deforestation causing soil degradation. Frequent drought. Semi-arid 233.0 400­600 Nomadic pastoralists. Millet/sorghum, cowpea, ground- Southern Africa (8.1) nut, cotton, some maize. Low potential for rain-fed Sudano-Sahelian agriculture and variable annual rains. Production mainly based peri-urban systems. Pervasive soil nutrient mining. Dry subhumid 314.0 600­1,200 Zone of arable crop production ­ maize, sorghum, Subhumid west (11.0) groundnut, cassava, sweet potato, cowpea, rice, Subhumid south tobacco, cotton, tea, soybeans, cocoa. Some animals ­ cattle, sheep, and goats. Declining yield, severe land degradation and soil nutrient mining. High degree of deforestation and use of marginal lands. Moist subhumid 584.0 1,200­1,500 Transition zone with cereals (maize) and root crops Mountain east (20.4) (cassava, yams), banana, pineapple, and sugar cane. Wheat, coffee in east African highlands. Livestock. High erosion potential and soil fertility limitations. Humid 409.0 >1,500 Tree crop zone ­ oil palm, rubber, cocoa, food crops, Humid west (14.3) yams, cassava, banana, rice, pineapple, and forest Humid central resources. Severe disease infestations, which limited Wetlands exploitation of crops and livestock. Low fertility of soils. Source: Henao and Baanante 2006. 85 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table C.2: Production and Farming Systems of Sub-Saharan Africa Agricultural Land area population Farming system (% of Region) (% of Region) Principal livelihoods Maize mixed 10 15 Maize, tobacco, cotton, cattle, goats, poultry, off-farm work Cereal/root crop mixed 13 15 Maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, yams, legumes, cattle Root crop 11 11 Yams, cassava, legumes, off-farm income Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum 8 9 Sorghum, pearl millet, pulses, sesame, cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, off-farm work Highland perennial 1 8 Banana, plantain, enset, coffee, cassava, sweet potato, beans, cereals, livestock, poultry, off-farm work Forest based 11 7 Cassava, maize, beans, cocoyams Highland temperate mixed 2 7 Wheat, barley, teff, peas, lentils, broadbeans, rape, potatoes, sheep, goats, cattle, poultry, off-farm work Pastoral 14 7 Cattle, camels, sheep, goats, remittances Tree crop 3 6 Cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, yams, maize, off-farm work Commercial ­ largeholder and smallholder 5 4 Maize, pulses, sunflower, cattle, sheep, goats, remittances Coastal artisanal fishing 2 3 Marine fish, coconuts, cashew, banana, yams, fruit, goats, poultry, off-farm work Irrigated 1 2 Rice, cotton, vegetables, rain-fed crops, cattle, poultry Rice/tree crop 1 2 Rice, banana, coffee, maize, cassava, legumes, livestock, off-farm work Sparse agriculture (arid) 18 1 Irrigated maize, vegetables, date palms, cattle, off-farm work Urban based <1 3 Fruit, vegetables, dairy, cattle, goats, poultry, off-farm work Source: Dixon and others 2001 in InterAcademy Council 2004. 86 APPENDIX C: AGRO-ECOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, AND GROWTH RATES Table C.3: Production of Food Crops in Agricultural Areas of Africa Growth per year Area and yield 1995­2004 2002­04 Area Yield Area Area Yield Region/crop (%) (%) (hectare) (%) (ton/hectare) Humid central Cassava 0.6 0.2 2,394,600 38.6 7.78 Maize 0.6 1.2 1,886,000 30.4 1.09 Pulses 1.3 1.3 605,900 9.8 0.81 Sorghum 0.7 2.6 593,000 9.5 1.09 Humid and subhumid west Cassava 2.5 0.6 5,433,700 12.4 9.51 Maize 0.5 0.8 7,404,000 17.0 1.13 Millet 1.6 0.7 6,577,500 15.1 0.99 Pulses 3.2 0.9 5,819,900 13.3 0.44 Rice 6.4 2.7 6,513,000 14.9 1.14 Sorghum 1.4 0.1 7,927,000 18.2 1.03 Subhumid and mountain east Cassava 1.5 3.5 1,035,609 7.2 9.65 Maize 1.0 0.1 4,206,095 29.2 1.60 Pulses 2.1 0.0 3,729,910 25.9 0.70 Rice 0.9 0.7 1,351,290 9.4 2.29 Sorghum 2.7 0.9 2,006,000 13.9 1.10 Wheat 1.3 0.1 1,178,200 8.2 1.41 Sudano-Sahelian Maize 6.7 2.4 1,191,483 3.7 1.41 Millet 0.5 3.1 12,192,458 37.9 0.53 Pulses 1.0 5.0 4,639,587 14.4 0.33 Rice 2.5 1.1 698,389 2.2 1.92 Sorghum 2.4 2.5 13,144,363 40.8 0.67 Subhumid and semi-arid southern Cassava 1.5 3.2 2,700,625 13.3 8.27 Maize 0.7 2.4 11,107,000 54.7 1.5 Millet 1.0 0.8 1,055,021 5.2 0.54 Pulses 1.1 0.4 2,214,640 10.9 0.53 Sorghum 0.8 1.0 1,619,342 8.0 0.96 Wheat 3.7 4.4 1,033,550 5.1 2.29 Source: Henao and Baanante 2006. 87 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table C.4: Production of Cash Crops in Agricultural Areas of Africa Growth per year Area and yield 1995­2004 2002­04 Area Yield Area Area Yield Region/crop (%) (%) (hectare) (%) (ton/hectare) Humid central Coffee 3.6 0.6 360,000 15.4 0.32 Groundnuts 1.7 3.0 841,000 36.1 0.88 Oil palm 0.5 0.6 329,000 14.1 7.83 Humid and subhumid west Groundnuts 4.5 0.8 3,900,500 35.0 0.96 Oil palm 1.0 0.2 3,944,200 35.4 3.22 Seed cotton 4.3 0.3 1,570,500 14.1 0.89 Subhumid and mountain east Bananas 1.2 0.2 571,395 14.9 4.92 Barley 4.5 2.9 767,000 20.0 1.19 Coffee 0.2 0.8 955,670 25.0 0.61 Sudano-Sahelian Groundnuts 2.6 0.5 3,943,550 68.8 0.73 Seed cotton 5.6 0.4 1,610,461 28.1 1.06 Subhumid and semi-arid southern Groundnuts 3.4 0.6 1,193,137 31.1 0.54 Seed cotton 1.9 1.9 1,040,600 27.7 0.81 Sugar cane 1.2 0.3 474,000 12.3 70.78 Source: Henao and Baanante 2006. 88 APPENDIX D: THE BANK PORTFOLIO AND ITS PERFORMANCE The Portfolio Table D.1: Details of Agriculture Lending to Africa, Fiscal 1991 to 2006 Total lending (all sectors) (US$ millions) 50,498 Investment lending (all sectors) (US$ millions) 34, 337 Lending to projects with agriculture components (US$ millions) 14,305 Lending to projects with agriculture components (as a percentage of total lending to Africa) 28 Lending for agriculture (US$ millions) 4,535 Lending for agriculture (as a percentage of total lending to projects with agriculture components) 32 Investment lending in agriculture (US$ millions) (Includes emergency recovery lending of US$247.22 million) 2,814 Investment lending in agriculture (including emergency) (as a percentage of total lending to Africa) 5.5 Investment lending in agriculture (as percentage of total investment lending to Africa) 8 Investment lending in agriculture (US$ millions) (Excludes emergency recovery lending of US$247.22 million) 2,567 Adjustment or development policy lending for agriculture (US$ millions) 1,721 Source: World Bank data. Table D.2: Breakdown of Agriculture Lending by Region, Fiscal 1991 to 2006 (US$ millions) Lending for Lending to agriculture as a projects with percent of lending Total lending agriculture Lending for to projects with Region (all sectors) components agriculture agriculture components Sub-Saharan Africa 50,498 14,305 4,535 32 East Asia and Pacific 74,909 14,339 7,691 54 South Asia 50,764 12,818 5,808 45 Europe and Central Asia 63,380 11,120 4,446 40 Middle East and North Africa 19,713 4,815 2,731 57 Latin America and the Caribbean 86,138 11,156 4,601 41 Total 345,403 68,554 29,812 43 Source: World Bank data. 89 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Figure D.1: Lending for Agriculture as Percentage of Total Lending to Projects with Agriculture Components, by Region 60 57% 54% 45% 40% 41% 40 tn 32% cer Pe 20 0 Africa Europe and Latin America South Asia East Asia Middle East Cenral Asia and the and Pacific and Caribbean North Africa Source: World Bank data. Figure D.2: Distribution of Bank-wide Agriculture Lending to Regions Total Bank-wide lending to agriculture (US$ 68.6 billion) Total Bank-wide lending to agriculture for projects with agriculture component (US$ 29.6 billion) Latin America Latin America and the Europe and and the Caribbean Africa Central Asia Caribbean 16% 21% 15% 15% Middle East and North Africa Africa 7% 15% East Asia Europe and East Asia and Pacific Central Asia and Pacific 26% 16% 21% Middle East and North Africa 9% South Asia South Asia 19% 19% Source: World Bank data. Figure D.3:Trends in IBRD/IDA Lending in Africa 5,000 sn 4,000 3,000 millio US$ 2,000 1,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Lending to agriculture All lending to projects with agriculture component Lending to all sectors Source: World Bank data. 90 APPENDIX D: THE BANK PORTFOLIO AND ITS PERFORMANCE Table D.3: IBRD/IDA Lending to Africa, 1991 to 2006 (US$ millions) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Lending to agriculture 419 374 221 178 234 323 127 196 160 123 286 308 318 287 295 685 All lending to projects with agriculture component 1,088 1,625 730 683 675 609 301 634 512 502 862 1,415 1,068 855 1,054 1,695 Lending to all sectors 3,379 3,971 2,815 2,808 2,284 2,740 1,730 2,871 2,205 2,159 3,370 3,793 3,737 4,116 3,792 4,727 Source: World Bank data. Figure D.4: Lending to Agriculture by Subsector 35 gn din 30 le e urltu 25 icr ag 20 15 dedicated of 10 tagen 5 cer Pe 0 Agriculture Crops Irrigation Animal Forestry General Agricultural Agro-industry extension and production agriculture/ marketing and research drainage fishing/forestry and trade Source: World Bank data. Table D.4 illustrates the point made in chapter 3 3.1, the current coding system is inadequate for regarding the limitation of the World Bank's tracking support to some critical activities that existing data systems. Information on Bank constrain agricultural development, such as support at the country level is limited to the eight seeds, credit, and land tenure. categories presented in the table. As noted in box 91 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table D.4: Lending to Agriculture Subsectors, 1991­2006 (top 10 countries) General Agri- Agriculture Irrigation agriculture/ cultural extension and Animal fishing/ marketing Agro- Overall Fiscal year and research Crops drainage production Forestry forestry and trade industry result Tanzania 1991 1.0 1.6 5.0 6.0 13.5 1992 4.5 5.1 7.5 4.2 21.3 1993 0.2 0.2 0.5 1994 8.8 8.8 1997 5.6 14.5 2.5 22.6 1998 6.1 6.1 2000 13.3 13.3 2001 0.1 0.1 2002 1.3 5.3 4.1 10.7 2003 2.8 39.6 26.4 2.8 71.7 2005 0.3 0.3 32.1 30.0 62.7 2006 24.3 18.9 154.4 8.1 205.7 Total 53.5 39.6 33.4 3.8 5.6 237.4 53.6 10.1 436.9 Côte d'Ivoire 1992 6.0 6.0 1994 12.2 3.0 15.2 1995 32.8 32.8 1996 39.4 43.1 109.1 10.5 202.0 1997 6.6 6.6 1999 42.5 42.5 2002 40.0 60.0 100.0 Total 54.7 79.4 58.6 201.8 10.5 405.1 Uganda 1991 5.0 30.2 18.3 45.4 98.8 1992 3.6 0.2 0.3 4.0 1993 31.3 31.3 1994 4.6 16.0 15.7 6.4 0.6 43.2 1995 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1996 1.3 14.0 15.2 1997 5.3 0.5 1.7 7.5 1999 10.4 10.4 2001 31.5 3.2 34.7 2002 3.9 3.9 2003 2.0 0.2 24.1 26.3 2004 22.5 22.5 2005 30.0 7.0 37.0 2006 16.2 16.2 Total 95.0 46.5 18.9 128.2 55.2 7.6 351.4 92 APPENDIX D: THE BANK PORTFOLIO AND ITS PERFORMANCE General Agri- Agriculture Irrigation agriculture/ cultural extension and Animal fishing/ marketing Agro- Overall Fiscal year and research Crops drainage production Forestry forestry and trade industry result Ethiopia 1993 17.5 17.5 1994 0.0 0.0 1995 13.5 0.0 6.4 19.9 1996 12.0 12.0 1998 22.2 22.2 2001 1.8 40.9 42.7 2002 32.3 0.9 33.2 2003 2.8 6.6 45.0 12.0 66.5 2004 30.0 30.0 2006 62.5 0.5 63.1 Total 100.0 17.5 14.8 0.5 6.6 107.3 60.2 307.0 Ghana 1991 37.5 0.3 0.2 38.0 1992 20.4 20.0 15.2 12.8 16.0 84.4 1993 16.2 16.2 1994 0.3 10.6 10.9 1995 1.3 3.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 7.0 1997 4.5 4.5 1998 4.3 4.3 1999 28.8 28.8 2000 0.2 1.6 1.8 2001 42.2 7.8 50.1 2002 11.0 11.0 2004 3.7 3.7 2005 12.0 12.0 24.0 Total 100.1 32.6 12.0 19.2 4.3 61.4 24.4 30.6 284.6 Mali 1991 14.6 2.8 3.9 2.2 23.5 1992 4.1 4.1 8.2 1994 20.0 20.0 1995 5.6 5.6 1997 2.0 2.0 2000 52.9 52.9 2002 23.9 24.7 2.2 50.8 2004 3.0 3.0 2005 1.0 3.0 4.0 2006 11.1 2.5 29.4 26.0 2.5 71.5 Total 58.6 42.7 58.5 6.1 6.3 32.4 31.6 5.5 241.6 (Continues on the following page.) 93 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table D.4: Lending to Agriculture Subsectors, 1991­2006 (top 10 countries) (continued) General Agri- Agriculture Irrigation agriculture/ cultural extension and Animal fishing/ marketing Agro- Overall Fiscal year and research Crops drainage production Forestry forestry and trade industry result Kenya 1991 15.4 3.0 12.5 11.9 16.5 18.8 78.1 1993 9.5 6.0 15.5 1996 1.5 3.1 4.6 1997 29.5 0.5 2.0 32.0 1999 2.0 2.0 2001 23.0 23.0 2002 0.2 0.2 2003 18.0 24.0 42.0 2004 40.0 40.0 Total 84.9 35.7 2.0 31.0 11.9 50.1 21.8 237.4 Malawi 1991 1.1 3.8 5.0 1992 1.4 1.0 2.4 1993 29.8 4.6 34.4 1996 17.0 24.5 41.5 1997 0.5 0.8 1.3 2001 6.7 0.4 7.0 2003 31.0 31.0 2004 12.5 24.0 12.5 49.0 2006 8.0 7.5 12.0 14.0 7.5 49.0 Total 38.9 45.6 16.6 3.8 95.7 20.0 220.6 Madagascar 1991 13.5 0.1 13.5 1992 0.1 0.1 1993 0.1 0.1 1994 1.6 1.6 1995 25.2 15.1 40.3 1997 4.2 30.0 34.2 1998 0.3 0.3 2001 11.6 18.7 16.5 18.7 65.5 2003 15.0 15.0 2004 0.1 18.0 18.1 2005 16.3 16.3 Total 37.2 38.0 13.5 97.3 0.2 18.7 204.8 Burkina Faso 1991 5.3 5.6 5.6 16.5 1992 4.8 2.2 8.1 7.0 22.1 1998 34.3 2.1 2.1 38.4 94 APPENDIX D: THE BANK PORTFOLIO AND ITS PERFORMANCE General Agri- Agriculture Irrigation agriculture/ cultural extension and Animal fishing/ marketing Agro- Overall Fiscal year and research Crops drainage production Forestry forestry and trade industry result 1999 0.8 3.4 4.1 2001 10.0 10.0 2003 7.0 7.0 2004 6.5 6.5 2005 9.0 9.0 18.0 2006 22.4 21.8 9.0 9.9 5.9 69.1 Total 56.7 5.5 27.2 2.1 5.3 49.3 18.0 27.5 191.7 Nigeria 1991 40.6 40.6 1992 37.0 37.0 2002 0.9 24.2 25.1 2004 10.0 12.0 30.0 4.2 14.0 70.2 2006 12.0 6.5 18.5 Total 100.4 12.0 30.0 10.7 14.0 24.2 191.3 Source: World Bank data. Performance of the Portfolio IEG Ratings Table D.5: Agriculture versus Non-Agriculture Projects in Africa: Outcome and Sustainability Ratings Number of projects Outcome, percent Number of projects Sustainability, Lending type with outcome ratings satisfactory with sustainability rating percent likely Africa investment lending (50% or more to agriculture) 52 60 47 40 Africa investment lending (non-agriculture) 378 65 343 53 Source: World Bank data. 95 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table D.6: Agriculture in Africa versus Agriculture Projects in Other Bank Regions Number of projects Outcome, percent Number of projects Sustainability, Region(s) with outcome ratings satisfactory with sustainability rating percent likely Africa investment lending (50% or more to agriculture) 52 60 47 40 Other Regions, investment lending (50% or more to agriculture) 150 73 138 63 Source: World Bank data. Table D.7: Non-Agriculture in Africa versus Non-Agriculture in Rest of the Bank Number of projects Outcome, percent Number of projects Sustainability, Region(s) with outcome ratings satisfactory with sustainability rating percent likely Africa investment lending (non-agriculture) 378 65 434 53 Other Regions, investment lending (non-agriculture) 1,103 79 1,028 77 Source: World Bank data. Table D.8: Change in Performance of Agriculture overTime Number of Outcome, Number of Sustainability, Number of projects with percent projects with percent closed projects outcome ratings satisfactory sustainability rating likely Africa investment lending (50% or more to agriculture) 60 52 60 47 40 1991­99 54 48 58 43 37 2000­06 6 4 75 4 75 Source: World Bank data. 96 APPENDIX E: LENDING TO AGRICULTURE FROM BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL DONORS Table E.1: Aid to Agriculture by DAC Countries and Multilaterals, 1981­2001 Aid to African Aid to agriculture Aid to African agriculture (global) agriculture (as a % of donor's (% of donor total) (US$ million, 2001) total aid to Africa) Donor 1981 1991 2001 1981 1991 2001 1981 1991 2001 DAC countries 11 8 5 833 1,047 557 15 12 6 Multilaterals 33 22 8 1,089 640 440 32 14 7 Donors total 18 12 6 1,921 1,687 997 22 13 6 Source: OECD CRS database, as noted in Kane and Eicher 2004. Table E.2: Aid to African Agriculture as a Percentage of Aid from all Donors to African Agriculture 1990 2000 2005 Bilateral donors 61 58 52 Japan 11 11 6 United States 5 9 8 Multilateral donors 39 42 48 IDA 29 10 20 All donors 100 100 100 Source: OECD Creditor Reporting System. Note: Excludes South Africa. 97 APPENDIX F: BANK STAFF SURVEY RESULTS A survey was conducted to gather staff perceptions The survey was e-mailed to the staff and 56 of institutional factors and incentives within the responded (a response rate of 22 percent). Since institution, as well as some general aspects of Bank it is in the nature of opinion surveys to have a support to agricultural development in Africa. response bias, it is difficult to ascertain whether those who responded are representative of the A total of 258 headquarter and country office staff 258 staff to whom the survey was sent. Because and consultants were identified using the follow- of the limited number of responses and the likely ing criteria: response bias, the report has used the survey results only to substantiate findings from other · Staff who are not primarily agriculture experts information sources. but have in some way contributed to agricul- tural development in Africa, as task managers The survey response data are presented in table or as part of teams working on agriculture F.1. A brief analysis of the responses to the most projects or relevant transport, trade, or other pertinent questions follows the table. The survey sector investments, structural adjustment cred- also sought the views of Bank staff on some its, sector work, or research aspects of agricultural development through · ARD anchor staff and ARD-mapped staff in open-ended questions. The responses to these agriculture questions are presented after the analysis. · Water anchor staff and water-mapped staff in agriculture (excluding water and sanitation en- gineers, specialists, and financial analysts). 99 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table F.1: Bank Staff Survey: Response Rate Agree or Disagree or strongly strongly Do not agree disagree know Strategic Approach to Agriculture in the Country Program 1. The Ministry of Finance, which is the main counterpart for the Bank in the countries, recognizes the need for investment in agriculture development as a priority area for growth and poverty alleviation. 46.43 50.00 3.57 2. The current Country Assistance Strategies for countries in Africa generally reflect a strong focus on agriculture development. 26.79 69.64 3.57 3. The current Country Assistance Strategies are generally prepared in active consultation with agriculture staff in the Bank. 46.43 46.43 7.14 4. The Bank's policy dialogue bearing on rural development in the Africa Region adequately addresses technical issues in agriculture productivity (soil fertility, land management, land tenure, irrigation, improved seeds, etc.). 26.79 66.07 7.14 5. Sufficient and rigorous analytical work/sector work generally informs the design and implementation of agriculture projects in the Africa Region. 37.50 55.36 7.14 6. The strategic approach by the Bank towards focusing on rural development more broadly has diluted attention to technical issues in agriculture lending in the Africa Region. 64.28 25.01 10.71 7. The Bank's shift toward programmatic lending will sustain sufficient focus on technical issues in agriculture in the Africa Region. 19.65 69.64 10.71 Bank Support for Interventions in the Agriculture Sector 1. It is much more difficult to show satisfactory results for agriculture sector projects in comparison to other sector interventions in the Africa Region. 57.14 35.72 7.14 2. Agriculture sector interventions are more complex and require longer-term support from donors than interventions in other sectors in the Africa Region. 78.57 17.86 3.57 3. The political economy in the countries in Africa is conducive for long-term support for development of agriculture. 44.64 53.57 1.79 4. Supervision and project preparation costs to the Bank for agriculture projects are significantly higher than projects in other sectors in the Africa Region. 62.50 19.64 17.86 5. Bank agriculture projects in Africa are able to respond adequately to the agro-ecological diversity and the needs of diverse production systems. 33.93 51.78 14.29 Bank's Strategic Approach to Agriculture More than 58 percent of the respondents disagreed Only 26 percent of the respondents agreed that that in the past decade the Bank has focused on the current Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) priority issues for development of agriculture in for countries in Africa generally reflect a strong Africa. Sixty-six percent of the respondents also focus on agricultural development. There was no disagreed that the Bank's policy dialogue bearing clear consensus among the respondents regard- on rural development in the Africa Region ade- ing whether the current CASs are generally quately addresses technical issues in agricultural prepared in active consultation with agriculture productivity (soil fertility, land management, land staff in the Bank. tenure, irrigation, improved seeds, and the like). 100 APPENDIX F: BANK STAFF SURVEY RESULTS Agree or Disagree or strongly strongly Do not agree disagree know 6. In the past decade the Bank has focused on priority issues for development of agriculture in Africa. 28.57 58.93 12.50 7. A focus on sustainability has been a significant element in project design for agriculture projects in Africa. 41.07 50.00 8.93 8. Community-driven development (CDD) approaches are effective in addressing critical sectoral issues in agriculture development in Africa. 42.85 46.43 10.72 9. The Bank's support for institution building in the agriculture sector in Africa, whether through T&V or CDD, has been carefully designed taking into account the reality on the ground and lessons of experience. 26.79 55.36 17.85 10. The Bank has a comparative advantage in the policy and institutional aspects to achieve satisfactory development outcomes for agriculture projects. 85.72 10.71 3.57 Bank Management Commitment to Agriculture Development 1. The country directors in countries in the Africa Region sufficiently take into account the complex and multisectoral nature of agriculture activities in taking decisions on IDA allocations among sectors. 12.50 82.14 5.36 2. The current Bank matrix-management organizational structure adequately supports the needs of agriculture projects. 17.86 75.00 7.14 3. There is sufficient allocation of scarce IDA resources at the country level in the Africa Region for agriculture sector issues for optimal national development. 10.71 73.21 16.08 4. The Bank provides adequate resources overall (for lending and sector work) to support development of agriculture in Africa. 17.86 75.00 7.14 5. There is good coordination between donors working in the agriculture sector in countries in the Africa Region. 32.14 60.72 7.14 6. There is good coordination between staff working on agriculture and other sectors within the Bank in the Africa Region. 17.86 80.35 1.79 7. The Africa Region has an adequate level of technical staff skills (irrigation specialists, soil specialists etc.) to support implementation of agriculture projects. 17.86 67.86 14.28 Source: Staff survey. Note: Based on 56 responses. However,85percentoftherespondentsagreedthat in the Africa Region. Moreover, 57 percent of the the Bank has a comparative advantage in the policy respondents agreed that it is much more difficult and institutional aspects to achieve satisfactory to show satisfactory results for agriculture sector development outcomes for agriculture projects. projects in comparison with other sector interventions in the Africa Region. More than 80 Complexity of the Sector percent of the respondents disagreed that the Seventy-nine percent of the respondents agreed country directors in the Africa Region sufficiently that the agriculture sector interventions are take into account the complex and multisec- more complex and require longer-term support toral nature of agriculture activities in making from donors than interventions in other sectors decisions on IDA allocations among sectors. 101 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA High Cost of Agriculture Projects In the view of one respondent, rural infrastruc- Sixty-two percent of the respondents agreed that ture issues are often ignored by agricultural staff the supervision and project preparation costs to in the Bank, who assume that they are being the Bank for agriculture projects are significantly covered by colleagues in other sectors. Another higher than for projects in other sectors in the respondent's view was that the Bank's portfolio Africa Region. Seventy-five percent of the respon- does not address poor access to markets because dents disagreed that the Bank provides adequate it is not coordinated across sectors, and project resources overall (for lending and sector work) locations rarely overlap, so synergies are not to support development of agriculture in Africa. developed. Other reasons cited for neglect of attention to these issues within the Bank were: Bank's Internal Organization and Agricultural Development in Africa · The Bank's emphasis on development policy Seventy-five percent of the respondents did not lending and dialogue has been at the expense agree that the current Bank matrix management of action in critical productive sectors such as organizational structure adequately supports the agriculture and infrastructure. needs of agriculture projects. More than 80 · Most country directors focus too much on percent of the respondents disagreed with the PRSPs and PRSCs at the expense of investment statement that there is good coordination be- projects. tween staff working in agriculture and those · Most of the sectoral interventions outside the working in other sectors in Africa. agriculture units (such as financial sector re- forms, public sector reforms, energy, and trans- Sixty-eight percent of the respondents disagreed port) continue to have an urban bias, with that the Africa Region has an adequate level of insufficient attention to the development of technical staff skills (irrigation specialists, soil agriculture. specialists, and so on) to support implementa- tion of agriculture projects. Some respondents believed that infusion of funds through community-driven development Responses to Open-Ended Questions operations is one option for development of small link roads, culverts, irrigation schemes, and Q1. What do you consider to be the major watershed development. constraint to agricultural development in Africa? In what areas has the Bank contributed Many respondents noted that the Bank has to addressing these constraints? largely failed in addressing the credit needs The responses were categorized into the follow- of smallholders. In term credit and financial ing groups: services, the Bank has consistently remained timid and very conservative. The financial sector Enabling Factors (those that "enable" agricultural family has been of little assistance in coming up development, such as roads that allow access to with realistic and practical solutions to the markets and credit that enables the farmer to buy problem of lack of or limited access to financial seeds): services to support real agriculture sector growth. Lack of rural infrastructure (rural roads and Incentive Factors (those that determine a farmer's irrigation) was identified by many respondents incentive to produce): as a critical constraint for the development of agriculture in Africa. Lack of rural credit was next, Many respondents identified constraints such as followed by the lack of access to markets--both a lack of incentives, a noncompetitive export domestic and export. Other issues listed were sector, developed-country subsidies, an unfavor- inadequate extension or research and lack of able business climate, and market distortions. private sector investment in agriculture. Some respondents felt that the Bank's failure to 102 APPENDIX F: BANK STAFF SURVEY RESULTS address pricing issues at local, national, and on the part of Africa's senior management to international levels has adversely affected agri- address deep-seated issues of political economy. cultural development in Africa. Insecurity of land Some respondents acknowledge that institu- tenure was also mentioned. According to some tional reforms take far more than three to four respondents, the Bank does not have any signifi- years, and the Bank's project period is too short cant operations in Africa working on land tenure to actually see reforms through to completion. because of the political sensitivities surrounding the issue. Q.2. What aspect of the Bank's assistance-- policy advice, lending, analytical work--has Physical Factors (availability of quality farmland, contributed the most to the development of labor, and inputs, among others): agriculture in Africa? Bank lending was most often indicated (62 Among the physical constraints respondents percent of responses) as an important contribu- identified were low agricultural productivity tor to the development of agriculture in Africa, at the farm level, weak producer organizations, followed by analytical work (50 percent) and and human resource deterioration (such as policy advice (43 percent). The respondents did HIV/AIDS, brain drain, low agriculture education not indicate the order of importance. and training investments, and so on). Respondents offered some interesting views on A few respondents mentioned that the Bank analytical work: portfolio is still too focused on the elements that made the Green Revolution work in Asia. They · Past analytical work has been focused too much noted that this will work only in certain agro- on the "standard" situations in which, as always, ecological zones and political/institutional envi- it has been providing excellent analysis. ronments. · The Bank lacks the courage to draw far-reach- ing conclusions: a departure from the Green Natural Factors (weather and disease related): Revolution model as it has worked for the South Asia Region. Post-harvest losses, plant and animal diseases, · The Bank does not do enough in analytical work. and weather shocks were the three natural For years none has been done, yet the Bank factors listed by some of the respondents who provides advice freely and develops lending op- believe that the Bank needs to develop better erations based on "borrowed" knowledge. strategies to help farmers cope with weather · Analytical work has helped, but the Bank is in shocks. a situation where much of the analytical work done is not used because there are severe lim- Institutional Factors (government capacity): its on funds available for lending. A majority of the respondents noted institutional Q3. What are the Bank priorities for constraints: poor governance and weak insti- agricultural trade reform in the countries that tutional capacity, especially in the Ministry of you know have worked, and has that been Agriculture. Other constraints were weak agricul- clearly communicated to Bank staff working in tural policy frameworks and lack of sustained the Region? strategic priorities. Most respondents noted that there is no clear Bank-wide priority for agricultural trade reform. Respondents said that the Bank has not They believe that the priorities have never been adequately addressed some of the major insti- stated explicitly. Also, no clear vision for agricul- tutional constraints. They attribute this to: tural trade has been communicated to staff. inadequate or insufficient analytical work, lack of assessment of past priorities, and unwillingness At the same time, some respondents believed that: 103 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA · The Bank's priorities for agricultural trade re- Q5. Any other issues not adequately covered in form seem to be mainly to reduce trade barri- this questionnaire. ers and encourage trade in all areas (not just The respondents repeated several issues already agriculture). There is also emphasis on trade covered in the questionnaire, but also raised liberalization and elimination of subsidies that some others. is fairly well communicated, but not always ac- cepted by clients. Issues already covered: · Agricultural trade reform has focused on "tra- · Adequacy of staff skills in Africa. ditional export commodities" to the exclusion · Inadequate analytical work. of internal trade in agricultural goods and re- · The country dialogue needs to include input lated inputs, processing, and storage. Unfor- from agriculture. tunately, since the spate of criticism by · Agricultural growth is key to reducing poverty. international NGOs, the Bank has soft-ped- · Lack of coordination across sectors in the Bank. aled support to growth in agricultural exports · High cost of preparation of agriculture projects. from low-income countries. At the same time, · Inadequate supervision resources. efforts to liberalize agricultural trade with · The Country Assistance Strategies are not ad- OECD countries is not likely to get very far. equately making the case for agricultural de- · The issue is now one of non-tariff barriers, but velopment. the Bank is not working on this in a significant · Inadequate resources for development of agri- way, and there is no teamwork with Poverty Re- culture from the Bank and other donors. duction and Economic Management or De- · Focus on potential of communities. velopment Economics in this area. · Research and extension. Q4. There was a multiple choice question that Additional issues raised by individual asked staff to select what should be the top respondents: priority for agricultural trade in Africa. · Lack of quality control in design and imple- The four options that they were asked to choose mentation of Bank projects. from were: · Not enough work is done to verify the feasibility of using a sectorwide approach. Agriculture is · Promoting measures to increase regional trade multisector; each subsector (for example, · Promoting reduction in trade barriers and dis- credit) is almost a sector. Therefore, a sector- tortions in OECD countries wide approach is unsuitable because it is at- · Promoting increased production of export tempting the impossible. crops from African countries · There is little understanding in the Bank of tra- · Promoting measures to achieve food self-suf- ditional farming systems. ficiency in African countries. · Agriculture is subject to higher standards of evaluation than other sectors. Thirty-eight percent of the respondents identified · The challenge is less to convince people to promoting measures to increase regional trade support agriculture, and more on how to sup- among African countries as the top priority for port agriculture. agricultural trade in Africa. This was followed by · Unsuitability of programmatic lending to sup- promoting reduction in trade barriers and distor- port agriculture. tions in OECD countries (29 percent). Only 13 · Lack of consistent, sustained project imple- percent of the respondents identified promoting mentation assistance. increased production of export crops from African · Need to stress the interconnection between countries, and 11 percent selected promoting agricultural production and industrialization. measures to achieve food self-sufficiency in Af- · Impacts of droughts and the like in wiping out rican countries. productivity gains from agricultural growth. 104 APPENDIX F: BANK STAFF SURVEY RESULTS · Organic farming is rising in importance in the The performance indicators that often end up industrial countries but is being killed in Africa being used (for example, crop yields, value of by the active promotion of chemical-driven production, value of agricultural exports) tend farming. to be determined not only by Bank-funded in- · Transboundary transport infrastructure be- terventions, but also by many other factors tween countries is key to promoting regional outside the control of the Bank. agricultural trade. · The Bank is no longer the dominant force in · Increasing land titling could improve security most of Africa that it once was. Other donors of tenure for agribusiness investors. are becoming more important. · Irrigation development should be top priority · Relationship of the work of the Bank with because of significant rainfall variability and other global and regional organizations. weather risk. · Importance of promoting soil health. · Difficulty in assessing the impacts of Bank- · The issue of food security and its links to rural, funded agricultural development activities. human, and general development. 105 APPENDIX G: SECTOR STAFFING ANALYSIS Table G.1: Staff Mapped to the Agriculture and Rural Development Department in the Africa Region Category 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Generalists (number) 42 37 32 35 38 37 44 45 43 43 Technical (number) 40 36 35 36 29 28 25 22 20 17 Total of generalists + technical staff 82 73 67 71 67 65 69 67 63 60 Technical staff as percentage of total 48.7 43.9 42.6 43.9 35.3 34.1 30.4 26.8 24.3 20.7 Generalist staff as percentage of total 51.2 50.6 47.7 49.3 56.7 56.9 63.7 67.1 68.2 71.6 Source: Human Resources (HR) Unit of the Bank. Note: Technical staff included, among other groups, soil scientists and forestry, extension, livestock, agribusiness, and irrigation specialists. Generalist staff included operations officers, economists, and rural development specialists, among other categories. 107 APPENDIX H: SELECTED EXTENSION APPROACHES Table H.1: Extension Services Type of extension service Origin or characteristics General national extension services The standard approach to public sector extension with field advisory services provided free to farmers throughout the country. General agricultural extension The traditional form of extension that has been dominant for the past 80 years. Training and visit extension (T&V) Debuted in the late 1960s as a reform of ineffective general extension services. Strategic Extension Campaign (SEC) Methodology developed by FAO to systematically incorporate peoples' participation into a national extension program. Extension by educational institutions Especially for agricultural universities, can be the dominant approach to national extension. Publicly contracted extension Services are provided by private firms or NGOs on contract to government. Targeted extension services Some extension approaches attempt to avoid the high recurrent costs by narrowing their focus in subject matter, clients, region, or time. Specialized extension services Focus efforts on improving production of a specific commodity or aspect of farming (such as irrigation, fertilizer use, forest management, and the like). Project-based extension Focus increased extension resources on a defined area for a specific period of time. Client-group-targeted extension Focuses on specific types of farmers, usually on disadvantaged groups, such as small farmers, women, minorities, or disadvantaged ethnic groups. Producer-led extension services These approaches involve farmers in the work of extension--drawing on producers' knowledge and resources. Animation Rurale (AR) Introduced in francophone Africa as a strategy to break the top-down pattern found in most development programs. Participatory extension Harnesses farmers' own capacities to organize group meetings, identify needs and priorities, plan extension activities, and use indigenous knowledge to improve production systems. Farming systems development extension Requires a partnership between extension, researchers, and local farmers or farmer organizations. Producer-organized extension services Completely planned and administered by producers. (Continues on the following page.) 109 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table H.1: Extension Services (continued) Type of extension service Origin or characteristics Commercialized extension services These approaches rely on commercialized extension. Cost-sharing extension May be incorporated into any of the other extension approaches by requiring farmers to share costs of services. Commercial extension advisory services Are becoming more common, as the rationale for free public extension services is questioned and farmers find they need more dependable or specialized services than are available from a public extension agency. Agribusiness extension Supports commercial interests of input suppliers and produce buyers who require or benefit from provision of sound extension services to support farm production and management. Mass media extension These approaches support other extension efforts or provide information services to a general audience. Mass media extension Provides pure information services directed to a wide audience. Facilitated mass media Links mass media information services with field extension agents or farmer- extensions to facilitate discussion and understanding of issues. Communications technologies Allow people in rural areas to interact with specialists or specialized sources of information through rural telephone or internet services possibly institutionalized in "telecottages" for community access. Source: World Bank 2002b. 110 APPENDIX I: COTTON SECTOR REFORMS: AN UNFINISHED STORY Cotton is critical to the economic development and strengthening the capacity of producer of several countries in West Africa (Benin, organizations to play an increasing role in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali) and East Africa management of the cotton sector, among other (Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe). It reforms. is often considered a success story because between 1980 and 2000, while Africa's share of The cotton reform story is unusually complex, world agricultural trade fell by half, its share of because neither the Bank nor its clients in Africa world cotton trade rose by 30 percent, and are in a position to influence cotton-produc- cotton production was able to contribute signifi- tion subsidies in the United States and other cantly to poverty reduction in some countries, developed countries. The subsidies in the devel- such as Burkina Faso. This was mainly because oped countries have increased production and cotton is predominantly a smallholder crop. consequently depressed world market prices. Over 2 million poor rural households in Africa Whether the removal of subsidies would actually depend on it as their main source of cash income lead to higher world prices for cotton is debatable (Tschirley and others 2006a). Cotton cultivation (since U.S. exports would likely be replaced by has also made possible growth in infrastructure those of higher-cost producers), but research and greater satisfaction of basic needs such as points to considerable revenue forgone by African health and education in some countries. countries because of these subsidies (World Bank However, dependence on a single export crop 2006e). In addition, pest management techniques has also made smallholders in many countries and technology improvements that contributed vulnerable to world prices. to increased yields have reduced production costs in major world producers such as the Brazil, Before the adjustment era, the marketing and China, and the United States, making it difficult trade of cotton in most African countries was for African countries to compete. handled by parastatals, which in several cases also met the input and credit needs of the It is difficult to draw conclusions about the farmers. The Bank has provided considerable outcome of Bank interventions, partly because it support for cotton sector reform in the Region is difficult to trace causality. Also, reforms have for the past 10 years. Though the specific been implemented at differing paces and to reforms undertaken have varied according to different degrees across countries. For example, country circumstances, the broad goals of the in Zambia the government completely liberalized reforms have been similar: to improve the the cotton sector, whereas in Mali the privatiza- efficiency and competitiveness of the sector. tion of the main parastatal has not yet taken place. Though there have been organizational differ- In several countries the Bank has provided ences in structure and pricing policies in the support for privatization of the parastatals, linking cotton industry among the various countries, producer prices to world markets, ginnery there have been common technical challenges in rehabilitation, improving grading practices, re- maintaining quantity and quality of production in search in and adoption of new varieties of cotton, the face of declining and highly volatile world 111 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA prices. While in some countries, such as Burkina cotton yields have stagnated in most countries-- Faso, organizations of producers have taken on including Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and major responsibility for a growing number of Tanzania. Lack of inputs and declining soil fertil- functions in the sector, this has not happened ity (particularly because in several countries across countries. Some gains that have followed expanded output under cotton production the reform period include a higher percentage of resulted from increasingly marginal areas being market prices for farmers, more timely pay- brought under cultivation for the crop) remain ments, and reduced pressures on state budgets. major concerns. Tschirley and others (2006a) However, with the privatization of the parastatals, also note nine technical challenges the sector the private sector has not stepped in to fill the faces (box I.1). The Bank is now at a crossroads. gap left in the supply of inputs and credits. Given its long-term involvement in the sector, other donors and clients are looking to the Bank The cotton sector faces the same constraints as for advice in how to move forward. other crops do because of the reform process: lack of access to inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, Despite its long involvement in the sector, the seeds), extension, and credit. The Bank's ap- Bank has not--until very recently (and on- proach to cotton sector reform in Africa does not going)--attempted to undertake rigorous analyt- show adequate recognition of how the sector ical work that identifies the multiple constraints had been insulated from some of these problems to development in the cotton sector and lessons because of the special role played by parastatals of experience across the Region to inform its in input supply and credit access. Data show that policy dialogue with the clients. Box I.1:Technical Challenges in the Cotton Sector · Support strong varietal research and dissemination. Seed and the environment. This issue has received very little at- quality has major impacts on yields, ginning ratios, and fiber tention to date, and is becoming increasingly important within characteristics. It thus establishes the outer limits of pro- several francophone systems. Maumbe and Swinton (2003) ductivity and quality throughout the system. note the significant health costs incurred by pesticide-using · Maintain the purity of varieties once they are released. This cotton farmers in Zimbabwe. typically requires varietal zoning agreements, which demand · Ensure appropriate use of fertilizers. High cost of fertilizers some level of horizontal coordination among players. and varieties that do not respond well to fertilizer means · Assure sufficient and timely provision of treated seed to that this input is often not profitable for cotton in Africa. farmers. Treated seed reduces disease in a very cost-effec- Wider use, which may be a prerequisite for cotton to make tive manner. major and sustainable contributions to poverty reduction, · Ensure sufficient and timely provision of appropriate pesti- requires reducing its cost and combining it with improved va- cides to farmers. Most cotton varieties currently in use in rieties that are more responsive to fertilizer. Africa are highly susceptible to attack by pests, so that in · Control quality from the farm gate through the export of many areas three to five pesticide applications are consid- fiber. Quality relates to fiber characteristics and to the uni- ered necessary for economical yields. formity of these characteristics in any given export lot. · Manage pesticide use to reduce cost and avoid insect re- Countries with a reputation for high and uniform quality will sistance. The "pesticide treadmill"--inappropriate use of have a ready market and better prices for their output, chemicals that increases insect resistance, leading to more even during the periodic gluts that afflict the world cotton use--increases financial costs and both environmental and market. human health externalities. · Pay farmers sufficiently remunerative prices to ensure their · Manage pesticide use to reduce damage to human health continued and increasing participation in the sector. Source: Tschirley and others 2006a. 112 APPENDIX J: MARKETING REFORM 113 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table J.1: Some Examples of Policy and Market Reform from the Portfolio Review Approval Lending fiscal instrument year Country Project name Project ID type Planned reform 1991 Zambia Recovery Credit P003235 Adjustment Decontrol of maize and fertilizer marketing and pricing; privatization of all parastatals except public utilities and natural monopolies; trade liberalization, involving tariff reform, the removal of export restraints. 1992 Tanzania Agricultural P002818 Adjustment Reform the pricing and marketing systems of food crops and Adjustment (P002776 three major export crops--coffee, cotton, and cashew nuts. Parent Project) Restructuring of crop processing facilities. 1992 São Tomé Agriculture P002535 Investment Privatize the publicly owned agricultural estate: and Principe Sector · Distribute and lease a major part of the Public Agricultural Enterprises (Empresas Estatal Agricola, EEAs) to smallholders and medium-size farm and agro-processing enterprises. · Reduce the number of estate laborers and increase labor productivity on the remaining (private) estates. · Lease the financially viable EEA and nucleus-processing facilities to the private sector. · Reduce export taxes on cocoa. 1992 Mozambique Economic P001775 Adjustment Foreign exchange system reform. Recovery Agriculture price reform: Credit (ERC) · Adjust the floor prices of cotton and cashew in line with the evolution of border prices. · Remove policy constraints preventing traders from operating in rural areas. · Review the role of AGRICOM (the state marketing agency). · Privatize Caju de Mozambique (the largest state-owned processing enterprise in the cashew sector). 1993 Zimbabwe SAC II P003322 Adjustment Agriculture market reform. 1993 Malawi Agriculture P001660 Investment Increase the availability of improved seeds and fertilizers to Services smallholders by supporting the formulation and implementation of seed and fertilizer policy reforms and financing incremental fertilizer. 114 APPENDIX J: MARKETING REFORM Result All price controls have been abolished. Producer prices for all crops are set by supply and demand (although there is still a producer floor price for maize). All prices were decontrolled in 1989, except maize meal and fertilizer prices. Private traders can buy and sell all agricultural products with no public monopolies. The NAMBOARD (National Ag Marketing Board) structures have been disbanded. Fertilizer importation and marketing are fully liberalized. Grain marketing and pricing policy. The expected private sector investment in grain marketing business, including construction of warehouses, did not take place. All food crops are now freely marketable. While the government no longer determines producer prices, it does establish the SGR floor price for the purchase of grain for food security reserves. In contrast to the grains subsector, where reforms were well under way, the reforms related to the export crops subsector had only recently commenced. The project was successful in starting the withdrawal of parastatals from agricultural production; introducing competition in the supply of seeds and fertilizer; rationalizing and substantially reducing the number of agricultural projects; and providing continuing support for agricultural policy analysis and project management. The Tanzanian Seed Corporation, TANSEED, was reorganized, and seed companies were established by early 1991. With respect to fertilizer, reforms were initiated slowly, because the government failed to raise fertilizer prices to the agreed level by September 1990. But by June 1991 the prices had been raised to the agreed targets. In addition, the subsidy was made explicit. Two private NMCs, SODEAP and SAC Sur, were created in order to increase competition with the already established private enterprises managing or leasing the rehabilitated estates for the purchase of cocoa and the provision of inputs and credit. The NMCs are still operating in the northern and southern part of the country but are only partially fulfilling their mandate. They have been purchasing and processing smaller and smaller amounts of cocoa over the past two years and stopped providing seasonal credit some years ago because of reduced access to working capital and farmers' very poor repayment rates. In addition, four of six private enterprises operating at the beginning of the project cancelled their leases because of labor problems and poor results (yield forecasts for the cocoa replantations in Uba Budo and Sta. Marguerida were 1,500 kilograms of dried cocoa per hectare, but in reality only about 700 kilograms were obtained on the best plots, with a general average of only 350 kilograms). The reason for the poor results was the introduction of inadequate planting hybrid materials during CRP. Following their departure, the government asked the project to distribute the land of these estates. But as a consequence, the quality of the marketing, input supply, and credit services provided to farmers has been declining dramatically. Floating exchange rate policy was adopted. The official exchange rate was set on the basis of the parallel market exchange rate. The objectives of the ERC were met, but after some delays. Private sector participation in the domestic marketing of agricultural products increased sharply with the relaxation of the licensing requirements on retailers and wholesalers. Prices of agricultural commodities rose above the minimum prices, which rendered obsolete the envisaged review of minimum prices and AGRICOM, the state marketing board, whose share in the procurement of maize declined drastically. The main domestic effects of the policy measures were to increase agricultural marketing, particularly for maize, and to reverse the worsening of the terms of trade between agriculture and industry in regions where small private traders were active. Externally, the policy measures led to increased exports. Liberalization of trade and exchange rate by progressively moving to a unified, market-based foreign exchange system and an import regime based on modest, tariff-based protection. Removal of price controls in beef, dairy, cotton, yellow and white maize, oilseeds, and wheat and elimination of marketing board monopolies. Slaughter quotas imposed by the Department of Veterinary Services were eliminated so that the private sector could participate more actively in meat processing. The turnaround of the Grain Marketing Board was one of the most important public sector financial management improvements under SAC II. Deregulation was not complete, however. The reform with the most far-reaching implications was the amendment to the Special Crops Act, which allowed smallholders to begin growing burley tobacco. This, together with support targeted at burley groups by SFSP, resulted in a major expansion in the number of smallholders growing burley from 18,000 to 50,000, and substantially enhanced incomes for these farmers. The deregulation of fertilizer imports has been partly achieved, and at one stage nine local and international companies were active. Subsidies, which started to be reduced from 1991/92, were completely removed in 1993/94. Toward the end of the project, however, only two private fertilizer companies were operating, and the government has again been playing a major role in fertilizer importation, reversing the liberalization trend of the fertilizer policy. There has been no success in reducing the cost of fertilizer imports to farmers for a number of technical and policy reasons. (Continues on the following page.) 115 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table J.1: Some Examples of Policy and Market Reform from the Portfolio Review (continued) Approval Lending fiscal instrument year Country Project name Project ID type Planned reform 1993 Malawi (continued) 1993 Kenya Parastatal P001348 Investment Restructuring, preparation for privatization, and commercialization Reform of specific parastatals (Kenya Tea Development Authority, Technical National Cereals and Produce Board [NCPB]). Assistance 1994 Chad Economic P035594 Adjustment Increase producer price of cotton by 50 percent. Recovery 1995 Ethiopia National P000753 Investment Decontrol retail and wholesale fertilizer prices. Fertilizer Eliminate fertilizer subsidies. Sector Develop institutional mechanisms to ensure that both public and Project private sector importers would have equal access to IDA and government funds for importing fertilizers. Level playing field between fertilizer distributors by eliminating special access to government-owned warehouses by the state-owned Agricultural Inputs Supply Corporation (AISCO). 1995 Benin SAC III P000111 Adjustment Divesture of public agro-processing companies. Cotton sector reforms: · Transfer of SONAPRA, the cotton company, into a mixed capital company. · Adopt market-based pricing mechanism procedures for seed cotton sales to private gins and revise the price stabilization mechanism. 1998 Cameroon Cameroon - SAC III P054443 Adjustment Privatization of agro-industries (palm oil, cotton, sugar, and fruits). 1998 Lesotho Agriculture Policy P001402 Investment Introducing changes in management through institutional and Capacity restructuring, privatization, and divestiture of activities and Building market liberalization. 116 APPENDIX J: MARKETING REFORM Result The objective of liberalizing production and marketing of hybrid seed was achieved, and all subsidies on improved seed were removed. Two commercial companies are currently producing or importing almost all hybrid maize seed used. Overall, while the agreed policy reforms have been largely implemented, this component has not fully achieved its objectives because the overall impact on the availability of inputs to small farmers, and competitiveness in supply, has been very modest. The policy reforms, in particular the liberalization of the markets for hybrid seed and burley tobacco, have encouraged greater involvement of private seed and fertilizer companies, but at the time of project closure there were clear signs that the government is becoming increasingly involved in fertilizer distribution again. Twenty-nine tea factories were sold to tea farmers. National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB). A contract with Agriconsult of Australia was reached as part of an agreement under an agricultural adjustment credit that the government would commercialize the entity and get out of the business of managing a strategic reserve. The government's contract with Agriconsult allowed the advisors to sell off the silos and to undertake a retrenchment program that has improved the environment for grain production in the country. The project had a positive impact on some small enterprises that were privatized and became more efficient in their operations. However, many of the small firms--for example, the ginneries--were sold by what were considered nontransparent processes to parties that have ceased to operate them because of insufficient investment funds. The result has been that the cotton ginneries have become a major bottleneck and a major reason for the dramatic decline of the cotton sector in Kenya. Increase in producer prices of cotton by 50 percent for the 1994-95 crop season and reinstate the previous cotton-sharing system. The liberal- ization of most prices and the increase in the producer price for first-grade cotton have enhanced producer incentives (as reflected in increased cotton plantings), while reduced inflation has fostered the emergence of a sounder economic environment; more effective customs operations have been established, and the program has brought down the government's accumulation of payments arrears and absorption of available credit, allowing it to improve the liquidity of the private sector. All agreed policy reforms were fully carried out, but the objective of the reforms--creation of a functioning and competitive industry--was not accomplished. Fertilizer pricing was totally liberalized, and fertilizer subsidies abolished. A fertilizer trade and manufacturing proclamation was issued in 1998, which set fertilizer standards and enabled the government to start enforcement of fertilizer quality standards from port to retail. Further, in order not to have an unfair advantage over its competitors, the government parastatal AISCO withdrew from marketing centers supported by Ministry of Agriculture staff, and ceased to have preferential access to the ministry's warehouses. Finally, foreign exchange for fertilizer importation was allocated among importers in a fair and transparent manner throughout the life of the project. However, government-introduced programs (already discussed under Component 2 above), although well-meaning in their intentions, had a design that was deleterious to competitive market development. Furthermore, more could have been done to address the persistent allegations of privileged market access by some regional trading houses. Cotton production more than doubled in the 1990s. But quality of inputs distributed to farmers by some private suppliers was less than adequate. As a result, production was expected to decline in the 1998/99 crop year. The farm gate price was increased from 80 CFAF/kg prior to the devaluation to 200 CFAF/kg in the two crop seasons 1996­98, but the producers' share in SONAPRA's after-tax profits has not been adjusted, and represents only a small portion of their income (less than 2 percent). Their share in cotton exports (a proxy for the industry's revenues) actually declined during the decade, from 63 percent in 1991­93 to 55 percent in 1996­98. The allocation of seed cotton among private ginning companies remains an administrative decision. Privatization of agro-industries partially met the targeted objectives. The outcomes envisaged under this subcomponent were met for sugar, palm oil, and tea, but not for the other crops. Agreed policy statement on subsidies for farm inputs based on subsidy evaluation review. Cabinet has issued a policy directive on the use of input subsidies. Deregulation of remaining controls on agricultural commodities implemented according to schedule. Deregulation schedule has been submitted to Cabinet for approval. Privatization, deregulation, and liquidation have not progressed as envisaged at appraisal. Of the 16 enterprises identified to be privatized at appraisal, 1 has been privatized (leased); 4 liquidated; with a further 2 being partially liquidated. Project activities related to marketing facilitation/reform have not yet led to deregulation. However, the project succeeded in carrying out studies, including an analysis of the 13 commodities that are under government control, with the view to understanding the impact of liberalization/deregulation on producers, consumers, and trade in general. The results of these studies were discussed with stakeholders in workshops carried out in all 10 districts, the recommendations of which were discussed in a national workshop in March 2003. (Continues on the following page.) 117 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table J.1: Some Examples of Policy and Market Reform from the Portfolio Review (continued) Approval Lending fiscal instrument year Country Project name Project ID type Planned reform 1999 Rwanda Economic P057294 Adjustment Increase in tea prices and the removal of the coffee tax. Recovery Credit Adoption of a comprehensive strategy to revive the coffee sector; privatize tea factories and estates and establish stakeholder- based regulatory frameworks for the tea and the coffee subsectors. Privatization of tea factories and participation of tea farmers in ownership of factory. Adoption of market-oriented policy framework for distribution and marketing of agricultural inputs. 2005 Tanzania Tz-PRSC2 P074073 Adjustment Review the role of crop boards to limit their functions to regulatory activities. Note: Because of the problems with reporting and attribution (as discussed in the section on M&E), it is not always possible to determine the outcome of Bank interventions. The above list includes cases where it was possible to determine achievements based on the information provided in project completion reports. 118 APPENDIX J: MARKETING REFORM Result In 1999, the government eliminated the 30 percent tax on coffee exports and increased the producer price of tea by 37 percent. Another important development has been the emergence of producers' associations that have become active in selling coffee directly to exporters and in distributing inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides to members. Legislation was passed in 2000 to change the legal mandates of OCIR-Cafe and OCIR-The, the two parastatals involved in production, marketing, and regulatory functions in the coffee and tea sectors, limiting their role to regulation, monitoring, and promotion. The privatization of the tea factories has not yet taken place. Most of the coffee-processing plants have been privatized and the privatization of the nine state-owned tea estates is expected to take place. In line with its policy of liberalization of markets, the government has reaffirmed the policy of market-based pricing and distribution of these inputs, thus abandoning the pre-genocide practice of state control of the market for these inputs. The review work is being done in phases. Initial work on the review process began in September 2003 with an institutional mapping exercise of coffee, cotton, cashew, and tea, followed by funding, institutional, and impact evaluation of the four Crop Boards. 119 APPENDIX K: IRRIGATION DATA Table K.1: Current and Potential Irrigated Area in Africa and Selected Countries Current Current irrigated area irrigated area Potentially as percent of as percent of Cultivated area Irrigated area irrigable land cultivated area potential Country (`000 ha) (`000 ha) (`000 ha) (%) (%) Ethiopia 10.671 290 2.700 3 11.0 Somalia 1.071 200 240 18.7 83.3 Madagascar 3.550 1.086 1.517 30.6 71.6 Sudan 16.653 1.863 2.784 11.2 66.9 Zimbabwe 3.350 174 366 5.2 47.5 Mali 4.700 236 566 5.0 41.7 Malawi 2.440 56 162 2.3 34.8 Zambia 5.289 156 523 2.9 29.8 Nigeria 33.000 293 2.331 0.9 12.6 Mozambique 4.435 118 3.072 2.7 3.8 Ghana 6.331 31 1.900 0.5 1.6 Kenya 5.162 103 353 2 29.0 Tanzania 5.100 184 2132 3.6 9.0 Congo, Democratic Republic of 7.800 11 7.000 0.1 0.2 Total, Sub-Saharan Africa 182.682 7.105 39.413 3.9 18.0 Total, Sub-Saharan Africa excluding the three largest irrigation countries 146.767 2.658 33.613 1.8 7.9 Source: Peacock, Ward, and Gambarelli 2007. 121 APPENDIX L: CASSAVA TRANSFORMATION IN NIGERIA From Conference Paper No. 8 "New Challenges in the Cassava Transformation in Nigeria and Ghana" By Felix Nweke Nature of the Success · Cassava accounts for 12 percent of farmers' Why is it considered a success? cash income. · Production triples within a decade, from 1984 to 1992 Equity · Nigeria surpasses Brazil as world's leading cas- · Broad access to improved varieties across farm sava producer sizes · Sixty percent of Nigerian villages plant im- · Cash production concentrated, 50 percent proved varieties among top 10 percent of households, but less · Resulting price fall benefits consumers, mak- concentrated than maize (70 percent cash sales ing cassava a powerful poverty fighter. among top 10 percent of farm households) · Poor consumers are major beneficiaries of a 30- Motors of change year productivity-induced fall in real cassava and · Improved varieties (tropical Manioc Selection gari prices. (TMS)): high yielding, early bulking, and dis- ease resistant Sustainability · Biological control of mealybug epidemic · Financial: highly profitable for smallholders, re- · Processing technology development: gari turns to HYV plus mechanical grating 20 times (dried prepared cassava porridge), mechanical greater than traditional varieties with hand grater to release processing labor grating · Change from inhibiting to favorable trade poli- · Ecological: long-term yields sustainable with- cies. out fertilizer. What constrains further expansion? Lessons for Building Future Successes · Harvesting labor bottlenecks Resume long-term funding for cassava research · Market competition from subsidized imported starches. Processing technology necessary for rapid market development Aggregate Impact Scale and productivity gains · Five million farmers produce cassava 123 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table L.1: Dynamics and Drivers for Change Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Cassava becomes Laying the Mealybug The New a staple food, foundation, invasion, surge, challenges, Timing 1910­60 1960­77 1978­83 1984­92 1993 on Key actors Immigrants Rural artisans IITA Government Farmers IITA National Root Crop Research Shell Oil Institute Private oil companies Motors of Severe rural labor Mechanical graters Mealybug Biological control of Rising wage rates lead change shortages (the result imported from Benin invasion mealybug (1981 on) to labor constraints in of wars and influenza and refined by local attacks takes effect. harvesting and pro- epidemic of 1918) artisans. cassava crop. Policy changes stifle cessing. induce a move out of Graters spread, food imports Imported corn starch labor-demanding releasing processing --drop food import becomes cheaper than cocoyam and into bottlenecks. subsidies cassava starch. cassava. TMS varieties --ban on cereal Emancipated slaves developed (1971­77) imports from Sierra Leone but fail to spread --devaluation of introduce gari rapidly. the naira raises processing technology. food import Immigrants bring in prices. new, bitter varieties. Government includes cassava in extension programs. Oil companies help finance cassava promotion. Beneficiaries Small farmers Small farmers Cassava farmers Urban gari consumers Urban consumers Urban consumers Production gains Production doubles Grater induces 50% Production falls Production increases 150%. Production up 15% from 1948 to 1958 increase in production. 20% Annual growth rate of Annual growth rate Annual growth 2.5% ­3.7% per year. 12% per year. slows to 1.5% per per year. year. Impact Cassava becomes Massive Real gari prices fall. Consumer gari prices established as a mobilization for Gari/yam price ratio trend upward. rural food staple. biological falls by 50%. Industrial demand for Growing urban control of Gari/rice price ratio cassava starch stalls. markets attract mealybug falls by 25%. gari trade. across Africa. 124 APPENDIX M: PREPARATION COSTS AND RISK RATINGS FOR AGRICULTURE PROJECTS Table M.1: Africa Region Projects: Average Preparation Costs over Time (non-agriculture versus agriculture) Approval fiscal year Non-agriculture projects (US$) Agriculture projects (US$) 1991 325 711 1992 219 2,049 1993 242 1,069 1994 260 1,148 1995 288 1,551 1996 370 3,459 1997 313 929 1998 308 6,734 1999 254 1,841 2000 234 2001 252 3,149 2002 230 5,762 2003 261 2,872 2004 289 2,861 2005 391 2,628 2006 360 3,145 Overall results 288 1,969 Source: World Bank data. 125 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Table M.2: Africa Region: Projects at Risk over Time (percent, all projects versus agriculture projects) At risk (%) Fiscal year All projects Agriculture projects 1991 54.9 65.3 1992 49.4 57.8 1993 47.2 55.4 1994 48.1 52.3 1995 44.4 48.1 1996 34.8 24.5 1997 39.5 33.0 1998 30.8 24.4 1999 27.3 17.5 2000 13.9 18.4 2001 14.8 14.5 2002 26.2 32.9 2003 19.0 17.6 2004 22.8 22.0 2005 29.0 39.1 2006 21.9 23.0 Source: World Bank data. 126 ENDNOTES Management Response moyennes et médiocres). Il est difficile de faire la somme 1. See World Development Report 2008: Agricul- des taux de croissance agricole pour l'ensemble de ture for Development, Discussion Draft, May 21, 2007. l'Afrique subsaharienne dans la mesure où ces taux et The final version of the WDR is scheduled to be launched les origines de la croissance varient de façon importante on October 19, 2007. d'un pays à l'autre (voir le chapitre 2 et le tableau B.2 2. IEG notes that its review presents country-specific en annexe au rapport de l'IEG). data to show the differences in performance among 3. L'IEG fait remarquer que certaines recommanda- three categories of countries: the comparatively better tions de son étude qui ont une immense portée sur le performers, the medium performers, and the poor per- développement de l'agriculture en Afrique subsaha- formers. Aggregation of growth rates for agriculture rienne, par exemple l'importance d'augmenter la pro- for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole presents challenges ductivité de l'agriculture pluviale, ne sont pas mentionnées given the wide variation in the rates and sources of dans le Relevé des interventions de la direction. growth across countries (see chapter 2 and appendix La direction se déclare entièrement d'accord sur table B.2 of the IEG report). l'importance d'augmenter la productivité de l'agricul- 3. IEG notes that some recommendations of its ture pluviale. Les éléments des actions qu'elle est en train study that are critical for the development of agriculture d'engager pour appuyer des programmes agricoles in- in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as the importance of in- tégrés au niveau des pays et de la région, tels qu'indi- creasing the productivity of rain-fed agriculture, have not qués dans le Relevé des interventions de la direction, been addressed in the Management Action Record. sont définis pour accélérer la croissance et la produc- Management notes that it fully agrees with the im- tivité. Comme c'est le cas aujourd'hui, la plupart des portance of increasing the productivity of rain-fed agri- améliorations seront obtenues dans des zones non ir- culture. The elements of the actions it is undertaking riguées, même avec l'extension prévue des périmètres in supporting comprehensive agricultural programs at irrigués. the country and regional levels as noted in the Man- agement Action Record are defined to accelerate growth A Resposta da Administração and productivity. As is now the case, most improve- 1. Vide Relatório Sobre o Desenvolvimento Mun- ments will be achieved in rain-fed areas, even with the dial de 2008: A Agricultura para o Desenvolvimento, planned expansion of irrigated areas. Versão Preliminar para as Deliberações, 21 de Maio de 2007. A versão final do RDM deverá ser divulgada em Réponse de la direction 19 de Outubro de 2007. 1. Voir le projet de document « Rapport sur le dé- 2. O GIA assinala que a sua análise apresenta dados veloppement dans le monde 2008 : l'agriculture au ser- específicos aos países para mostrar a diferença do de- vice du développement », du 21 mai 2007. La version sempenho em três categorias de países: aqueles que ti- finale du RDM est prévue pour être publiée le 19 octobre veram um desempenho comparativamente melhor, 2007. aqueles que tiveram um desempenho médio e aqueles 2. L'IEG fait remarquer que son rapport présente des cujo desempenho foi fraco. As taxas agregadas de cres- données par pays pour montrer les écarts de perfor- cimento da agricultura na África Subsariana, como um mances entre trois catégories de pays, classés selon todo, apresentam desafios que são devidos à grande va- leurs performances (comparativement meilleures, riação das taxas e fontes de crescimento através dos pa- 127 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA íses (vide o capítulo 2 e o apêndice no quadro B.2 do Chapter 2 relatório do GIA). 1. Similarly, in Mozambique, the growth rate jumped 3. O GIA assinala que algumas das recomendações in the 2000­04 period because of the post-conflict re- do seu estudo que são cruciais para o desenvolvimento settlement of refugees in the rural areas and the resulting da agricultura na África Subsariana, tais como a im- expansion in production (World Bank 2006g). portância de aumentar a produtividade da agricultura 2. Management agrees that agricultural growth and de sequeiro, não foram abordadas no Registo das Acções productivity must increase relative to current levels, Empreendidas pela Administração. and notes that the growth rate of agricultural GDP in A Administração diz que concorda plenamente com Sub-Saharan Africa in the period 1980­90 averaged 2.3 a importância de aumentar a produtividade da agricul- percent annually. This rate increased to 3.3 percent an- tura de sequeiro. Os elementos das acções que está a nually between 1990 and 2000, and to 3.8 percent an- empreender para apoiar os programas abrantentes da nually between 2000 and 2005 (World Development agricultura a nível dos países e a nível regional, como Indicators, 2007). IEG notes that these numbers mask indicado no Registo das Acções Empreendidas pela Ad- substantial variation across countries and over time. ministração, são definidos em termos de acelerar o 3. A background paper produced for the Commis- crescimento e a produtividade. Como é o caso actual- sion for Africa Report (2005) found that international ef- mente, a maioria dos melhoramentos serão alcança- forts for harmonizing disbursement and procurement dos nas zonas de sequeiro, mesmo com a ampliação procedures among donors and aligning them more planeada das terras irrigadas. closely with the procedures of African governments have improved coordination. While these changes are Chapter 1 welcomed by African governments, they are also seen 1. Using a poverty line of US$2.15 per day. as focusing more on harmonization of procedures than 2. "But the decision of Africa's new leaders to invest on aligning donor policies with those of the strategies in industry in isolation from village agriculture and rural of African governments (Johnson, Martin, and Bargawi industries was also consonant with the views of many 2004). Western development economists in the 1950s, who as- 4. "We will no longer look only at irrigation and sumed that agriculture was a passive sector, a black drainage, but also at water resource allocation and com- box that could be squeezed to finance industry" (Eicher prehensive management. We will not deal with agri- 1999, p. 17). culture, forestry, or livestock separately, but with the 3. "In Africa, instead of focusing on food production management of natural resources in sustainable pro- and the building of the basic institutions for a modern duction systems. We will look at rural entrepreneurship agriculture over a period of decades, donors jettisoned instead of agricultural credit, off-farm employment, much of what had been learned about the agriculture agro-industries and marketing in isolation. And we will development experience in Asia and in the seventies in- integrate human capital development, infrastructure, and troduced new programs, such as a diffused provision of social development into rural development strategies services targeted to the poor, integrated rural devel- and programs" (World Bank 1997c, p. 17). opment, programs targeted to women and an attack on 5. Agro-ecological zones share similar soil, landform, environmental problems. These programs overlooked and climatic characteristics. the critical need to address concurrently agricultural pro- 6. Management notes that Africa's physical endow- ductivity and sustainability issues" (Mellor 1998, p. 59). ment is more favorable for agriculture than this char- 4. "Because most land is held communally in Africa, acterization suggests. in most cases rural inequality does not stem from severe 7. "That diversification is partly a response to climatic inequality in landholdings. Rather it reflects geographic risk is shown by differences in the extent of crop di- differences in the quality of land, in climatic conditions, versification between ecological zones: in the humid for- and in access to markets and to remittances from urban est areas where rainfall is reliable households often are areas" (World Bank 2000, p. 93). highly specialized, growing only one or two crops. Sim- 5. Many rural and urban poor in Africa are net food ilarly, households living in the Sahelian zone in West buyers (Christiaensen and Demery 2007). Africa are more diversified than households in areas with 6. Diao and others (2006) report similar findings. more reliable rainfall" (Collier and Gunning 1997, p. 15). 128 ENDNOTES 8. Millet is grown in difficult agro-ecological situations ited impact of the analytical work on the client and the (low rainfall, high temperatures, and degraded soils) Bank due to shortcomings in dissemination, the short where maize and sorghum production may not be pos- `shelf-life' of reports, and inadequate systems for archiv- sible or as productive. Millet is also able to access water ing, updating and accessing AAA reports" (p. 3). from much lower in the subsoil than maize and sorghum. 4. QAG review of Quality of Country AAA (QAG This means that if nitrates are leached beyond the ef- 2005) notes that "Both an analysis of the country as- fective depth of a sorghum root system (a common oc- sessments and an in-depth review of eight countries that currence in the semi-arid tropics), millet plants may still were identified because of their importance for the be able to use these nitrates (Yanggen and others 1998). Bank's program in the Agriculture and Rural Develop- 9. Also, fertilizer response declines as soil health, es- ment (ARD) area, suggest that there is an under in- pecially organic content, declines. vestment in analytic work in this sector relative to its 10. Four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have aver- importance for poverty reduction. The gap was most age intensity of fertilizer use greater than 25 kilograms pronounced in the cases of the Africa and South Asia Re- per hectare: Kenya, Swaziland, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. gions" (p. 71). Kenya in particular has experienced tremendous growth 5. "The Bank is slow to revise country AAA in re- in fertilizer use since the early 1990s (Ariga, Jayne, and sponse to political, economic or other changes within Nyoro 2006). the country" (QAG 2005, p. 35). 11. Research has opened a range of intensification 6. A QAG assessment of the ARD AAA program noted options for individual farmers. These lie along a con- "the Bank appears to have a very porous institutional tinuum from adoption of extensive farming only (if sur- memory and an entirely inadequate filing system (elec- plus land is available) to a low-input sustainable approach tronic or otherwise). Many reports were missing or (that uses minimum tillage, labor-intensive recycling could only be located with difficulty." The study urged of nutrients by alley cropping, green manuring and ARD to make "greater effort to accurately record AAA composting, and little or no fertilizer, pesticides or her- tasks in SAP [a Bank data management system] and to bicides) to a high-input farm capital intensification (in- ensure that reports are properly archived and readily cluding fertilizers, pesticides, and the like) approach. An available to the staff and the client." (QAG 2004, p. 12). individual farmer could be anywhere on the contin- An ARD annual retrospective of agriculture and rural an- uum, depending on his individual circumstances, in- alytical work also found that of 186 agriculture and cluding: access to land and extension, education and rural ESW reports completed between fiscal 2000 and tenure arrangements, the need to spread risk, and ac- 2004, only slightly more than half were available in the cess to inputs and credit, among other factors. Bank's internal database and ImageBank. 7. Internal reports have also noted that the Bank is Chapter 3 missing opportunities to disseminate analytical work of 1. A review of Bank data indicates that in some coun- potential interest to clients, particularly by not translating tries only one piece of AAA is conducted every year, and reports into local languages and by not formally pub- in some years none is undertaken. lishing them. 2. "In the cases of PERs, for example, which are sup- 8. "Sector `silos' are very apparent in the AAA work posed to pull together themes for various sectors, the program, with little or no evidence of interaction be- technical input from ARD sector specialists is often lim- tween sector departments" (QAG 2004, p. iii; QAG ited to reviewing drafts at a late stage when such inputs 2005, p. 35, has a similar finding). are least effective. Even in countries in which the Bank 9. The dollar amount assigned to agriculture in a de- is heavily involved in areas such as rural infrastructure, velopment policy loan is not a meaningful number as rural education and health, integration of ARD sector it is based on sector assignments by task teams. work was often hard to detect" (QAG 2004, p. 6). 3. QAG reports also note weak linkages with lend- Chapter 4 ing operations, "sector studies are frequently undertaken 1. "There was a significant reduction in the numbers to justify/support operations in advanced stage of prepa- of technical staff, including particularly valuable indi- ration instead of preceding such preparation efforts." viduals with long experience for whom no position (QAG 2004). The same QAG report also points to "lim- could be found at the grade to which they had previ- 129 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ously been promoted on the basis of their performance. 2. IEG's recent study of natural disaster assistance These senior professionals were offered a choice of ei- (IEG 2006c) also found that a many Bank projects can ther a position at a lower grade, or substantial mone- be characterized as ad hoc responses. The study also tary compensation if they chose to leave the Bank. This found that the Africa Region had the largest number of exacerbated the attrition of very experienced technical Bank-funded disaster projects and the lowest outcome staff resulting from normal retirement" (World Bank rating. 1991a, pp. 4­5). 3. Acute food insecurity results from short-term 2. Management notes that technical expertise of shocks (such as droughts) that reduce food availability, staff is more readily seen in their CVs and educational access, or utilization for an individual. Chronic food in- background than in the Human Resource database. security is limited access to food on a long-term basis Moreover, Bank teams work regularly with technical and results from poverty, poor soil fertility, and food pro- staff from other institutions, such as FAO. duction and distribution systems with high unit costs. 3. Decentralization involved a large percentage of 4. A recent study (Anderson and others 2005) of Bank staff being located in the field offices. The logic be- links between CGIAR products and Bank operations, hind the decentralization was to delegate authority, while noting important linkages, also notes that "the link- functions, and staff to country offices weighing, on a case- ages and synergies between World Bank-financed proj- by-case basis, the advantages of local responsiveness with ects, the IARC [International Agriculture Research the need to retain our global perspective--and bal- Centers] research programs and the NARSs [National ancing all this carefully against cost considerations Agriculture Research Systems] in Eastern Africa have (World Bank 2001b). More than 70 percent of country often been more by accident than by design" (p. 35). directors in the Africa Region today are based in client 5. A Country Assistance Evaluation for Malawi (IEG countries. 2006e) that assessed the Bank's assistance to Malawi dur- 4. A long-standing research program of the World ing fiscal 1996­2005 found that the Bank did not make Bank Institute and the Research Department of the an effective contribution to the development of the World Bank defines governance as the set of traditions agriculture sector for various reasons: and institutions for the exercise of authority in a coun- try. The research reveals that the political, economic, and First, the Bank's agriculture sector project im- institutional dimensions of governance can be captured plementation record has not been good. There by six aggregate indicators: voice and accountability, have been six completed projects since FY96, political stability and absence of violence, government only one of which has had a satisfactory outcome effectiveness (including the quality of public service, pol- rating. Second, the Bank moved away from di- icy formulation, and government commitment), regu- rect investments in the sector, addressing agri- latory quality (including the ability of the government cultural and rural economy issues primarily to formulate and implement sound policies and regu- through multisector adjustment loans. This ap- lations), rule of law, and control of corruption (World proach diluted the significance and impact of Bank 2006i). While some of these aspects are discussed Bank interventions. Third, the Bank did very lit- here, others are picked up in the section on policy and tle policy analysis until 2003. Fourth, attempts marketing reform in chapter 5. to improve the quality of burley tobacco and 5. Since the early 1990s, under the Special Program strengthen farm-to-market links have not been for African Agricultural Research (SPAAR), many national successful. Finally, progress in developing agricultural research systems (NARS) began rethinking Malawi's rural financial markets has been in- their institutional model and moving away from top- substantial. Thus, with respect to the sub objec- down, supply-driven, publicly financed models toward tive for improved agricultural productivity and more open and client-driven systems (CGIAR 2002). more efficient marketing, the outcome is un- satisfactory" (IEG 2006e, p. 32). Chapter 5 1. Management notes that agricultural technology It is worth noting that in the early 1990s, consider- projects support adoption of a range of technologies suit- able policy analysis was carried out but it did not lead able for different agro-ecological conditions. to effective results on the ground. 130 ENDNOTES 6. Only in fiscal 2006 did the Bank approve an irri- serves as the implementing agency for IFAD's project gation, rural livelihood, and agriculture development on roots and tubers in Ghana.) Last, since cassava can project that is expected to contribute to increasing agri- be stored underground without harvesting for several culture productivity. years in the drier areas where it is produced, the counter- 7. Management notes that in the past two years, cyclical production with maize in figure 5.1 is probably Malawi has had exceptional harvests and has exported largely increased harvesting instead of increased pro- maize. The success is not just because of good rains. It duction per se. is also the result of a government program promoting 10. In addition to the portfolio review, which was car- access to inputs for smallholders, a fertilizer for work ried out on a sample of projects, this review looked at program under an IDA-financed Irrigation and Rural the objectives of all closed projects and found only one Livelihoods Project, and an overall improvement in the that included improving soil fertility as a project ob- macro policy environment. Management also notes jective. that the new generation of IDA-financed operations is 11. The initiative was launched in 1996 in response contributing to food security and reducing the impact to concern from various stakeholders, with support of drought by supporting irrigation and water harvest- from the World Bank, FAO, other donors, the CGIAR ing, strengthening access to and supply of inputs, and (represented by ICRAF), IFDC, and NGOs such as supporting a number of critical institutional reforms and SG2000 and had as its original goal to help facilitate the innovative approaches to risk management (including introduction and adoption of sustainable soil fertility warehouse receipts, weather insurance, and commod- management practices by smallholder farmers. ity futures). IEG notes that 2004/05 had the lowest level 12. The emphasis on environment also led to increase of maize production since 1996­97. (See IEG's recent in natural resource management in Bank agricultural ini- project assessment of the Malawi Emergency Drought tiatives in the 1990s (World Bank 1991c). Other analyt- Recovery Project, IEG 2007f) and that a number of the ical work in the late 1990s (World Bank 1997a, p. 3) also initiatives mentioned are still works in progress and it noted that "most of the literature now agrees that the is too early to judge their impact. major environmental issue facing most of Africa is a 8. IEG's natural disaster study found that Africa was combination of soil, water, forest, and pasture degra- also the only Region where borrowing for disasters was dation in rural areas. The major cause is expansion of most often for droughts. farming area resulting from growth of the rural popu- 9. Management appreciates IEG's recognition of its lation combined with farming practices that often mine role in supporting the development of improved, dis- the soils and cut forests for fuelwood and farming." ease-resistant varieties of cassava. However, management 13. "In the late 1980s, sustainability emerged as a crit- would not see cassava as a missed opportunity for the ical issue in African policy circles, because of famine, Bank. The Bank does not specifically target production growing evidence of land degradation, deforestation and of cassava or other crops. Instead it supports countries desertification and because of a rebirth of concern in in their efforts to improve the institutional setting for developed countries for the environment. These forces agriculture, generate technology improvements, and en- translated into pressure on foreign assistance agencies hance the information available to producers to make to undertake environment programs, and in their in- their own decisions regarding production and market- teractions with African policy makers to insist on the ur- ing. In that context, reforms supported by the Bank that gency of addressing environmental problems" (Reardon encouraged the removal of pan-territorial pricing for 1998, p. 446). maize and fertilizer subsidies were key. These reforms 14. The InterAcademy Council (2004, p. 202) report resulted in a shift from maize to cassava in many mar- also notes, "A case can be made for selective subsidies ginal areas where cassava is the more suitable crop. on strategic inputs, such as fertilizers, until infrastruc- The Bank's support for advisory services and technol- ture can be improved to the extent that prices paid ogy dissemination, for example, under the Uganda Na- and received by African farmers are more in line with tional Agricultural Advisory Services Project, is the kind international competitors." of activity that helps get farmers the information they 15. A recent study (Anderson and others 2005) found need when they are deciding what crop to plant. (Man- that, on average, well over one-half of the genetic ma- agement would also note in this context that the Bank terial used for crop improvement in the East African 131 WORLD BANK ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Community countries in commodities such as maize, cas- 21. Within a financial systems approach, financing for sava, beans, wheat, rice, legumes, and that involving agro- agriculture is seen as part of the wider rural finance mar- forestry was provided directly by the CGIAR Centers to ket. In this approach, the appropriate role of the pub- the national programs concerned. lic sector is seen as ensuring that the environment is 16. The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture conducive to the emergence and growth of institutions undertook a study to assess the level of adaptation and adhering to commercial principles. diffusion of the new extra-early maize technology since 22. Supervision reports acknowledge that the rural its introduction in villages in northern Nigeria in 1997. and community banks lack the tools to successfully The study examined the rate of adoption of extra-early tackle agricultural lending. maize varieties and determined the factors influencing 23. An IEG review in 1996 found that the decline in adoption and the constraints to adoption. Data were col- Bank support for agricultural credit, which began in the lected from 220 farming households in 14 villages. Out early 1980s and persisted through 1992, continued in of 220 farmers selected in the random sample, only 20 the middle 1990s. Another IEG study also noted the low farmers were growing the maize at the time of the sur- lending for lines of credit in Africa over the period of fis- vey. The major constraints to the adoption of extra- cal 1993 and 2003 (IEG 2006h). early maize varieties in the study villages were input 24. Management notes that the Bank has made a related. Constraints cited very often by the adopters in- major commitment to increased transport in Africa, cluded unavailability of fertilizers (86.67 percent), un- and virtually all of this benefits agriculture. Notably, availability of seed of extra-early maize (63.63 percent), passable trunk and secondary roads are a prerequisite labor constraints (36.67 percent), and land ownership for tertiary roads to play their role. Improvement has problems (26.67 percent) (IITA 2004). lagged in farm-to-market roads because of limited re- 17. The dent hybrids [of maize] are much more vul- sources and the need to take on necessary priority in- nerable to damage by weevils in storage than the flinty vestments first. In recent years, transport ministries in local varieties. The introduction in the mid-1990s of Africa supported by Bank teams typically work closely the semi-flint varieties, which are more resistant to wee- with agriculture ministries in setting transport priorities. vils, has made hybrids more popular than before. How- 25. This section is an assessment of the overall ex- ever, since they are not as resistant as local varieties, most tension approach, and not the subject areas where ex- farmers still prefer to grow both. While the break- tension advice has been provided through Bank projects. through in breeding semi-flint hybrids has been im- 26. The InterAcademy Council sponsored a study to portant, the escalating cost of fertilizers and other inputs understand how to improve agriculture productivity has made it difficult for farmers to grow more hybrid than and food security in Africa at the request of the then- local maize (Peters 2002). Secretary General of the United Nations Kofi Annan. 18. Exposure to droughts and weather-related un- 27. "The Farmer Field School is a form of adult ed- certainties affect farmers' incentives to adopt high-risk ucation, which evolved from the concept that farmers technologies and they often forgo available technolo- learn optimally from field observation and experimen- gies that would require them to use fertilizers that tation. It was developed to help farmers tailor their In- would yield higher outputs, but are also riskier (Dercon tegrated Pest Management (IPM) practices to diverse and and Christiaensen 2005). dynamic ecological conditions." http://www.fao.org/ 19. "Public investment in marketing and trans- docrep/006/ad487e/ad487e02.htm#P20_3691 portation infrastructure would reduce input costs and 28. The project assessment of the Tanzania Second increase producer prices by reducing transportation Agricultural Extension Project notes that if public ex- costs" (Ahmed, Sanders, and Nell 2000, p. 62). tension does wither and die, it seems likely that the 20. Most African farmers currently know little about poorer farmers and those predominantly producing the range of plant varieties being developed and released food crops will suffer disproportionately. There is some by national crop improvement programs (Tripp and global evidence that non-public extension, as might be Rohrbach 2001). Effective smallholder seed supply sys- expected, tends to target higher-income farmers. In tems are also still widely lacking in Africa (Sasakawa Tanzania, whether such an approach could relieve suf- Africa Association 2004b). ficient budgetary burden at the top end to enable the 132 ENDNOTES poor at the bottom end to be adequately covered is an extension policy supportive of a pluralistic system doubtful. should begin with an inventory of the actors as in who 29. "The critiques of `top-down' development and the provides what to whom, and an assessment of the qual- call for more `bottom-up' or participatory approaches ity of the services rendered before deciding on any re- should direct us not to oppose science/scientist to tra- form" (World Bank 2004b, p. vii). dition/farmer but to help develop collaborative meth- 31. Christiaensen and others (2002), on the basis of ods between rural producers and scientists/extension their work in Africa, also found that households with staff to identify, refine and circulate useful knowledge larger private endowments such as land are in a better and `best bets.' The aim is not to identify a single best position to profit from new opportunities generated by solution for all times and places, but to recognize that liberalization and institutional change. multiple situations require multiple answers and that 32. A value-cost ratio indicates the profitability of fer- these necessarily change" (Peters 2002, p. 35). tilizer application on crops. 30. "Pluralistic strategies often entail a change in 33. That "getting prices right" could not--by itself-- roles and can run into active opposition of suspicious put African agriculture on the growth path was em- public agencies. 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Its mission is to fight poverty for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their envi- ronment by providing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity, and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors. THE INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUP ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an independent, three-part unit within the World Bank Group. IEG-World Bank is charged with evaluating the activities of the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, IEG-IFC focuses on assessment of IFC's work toward private sector development, and IEG-MIGA evaluates the contributions of MIGA guarantee projects and services. IEG reports directly to the Bank's Board of Directors through the Director-General, Evaluation. The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the Bank Group's work, and to provide accountability in the achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank Group work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned from experience and by framing recommendations drawn from evaluation findings. ISBN 978-0-8213-7350-7 THEWORLD BANK SKU 17350