Report No. 24343-BR Brazil Next Steps for Education in Four Selected States in Brazil March, 2003 Human Development Department Brazil Country Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office Document of the Worid Bank Currency EquWvalents Currency Unit = Real (R$) November 2002: R$ 3.50/US$ IFiscal Year January 1 - December 31 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVlATf ODN§ AAE Associations for School Support (Associa,co de Apoio a Escola) APM Parent-Teacher Associations (Associa,ao de Pais e Mestres) CESGRANRIO Foundation Cesgranrio CNE National Education Council (Conselho Nacional de Educa,do) CNI National Confederation of Industries (Confedera,do Nacional da Industria) CONSED National Council of State Education Secretaries (Conselho Nacional de Secretdrios de Educa,cdo) EJA Education for Youth and Adults (Educa,co de Jovens e Adultos) FNDE National Education Development Fund (Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educa,do) FUNAI National Foundation of Indigenous Peoples (Funda,cdo Nacional do Indio) FUNDEF Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Education and Enhancement of the Teaching Profession (Fundo de Desenvolvimento e Manuten,cdo e Valoriza(ao do Magiste'rio) FUNDESCOLA School Improvement Program (Programa do Fundo de Fortalecimento da Escola) INEP National Institute for Educational Research and Studies (Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais) IPEA Institute for Applied Economic Research (Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada GDP Gross Domestic Product (Produto Interno Bruto) MEC Ministry of Education (Ministe'rio da Educa,cdo) LDB National Education Law (Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educagdo Nacional) MOBRAL Brazilian Literacy Movement (Movimento Brasileiro de Alfabetiza,cao) OCDE Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation PDDE Program for the Maintenance and Development of Fundamental Education (Programa de Manuten,cao e Desenvolvimento do Ensino Fundamental) PME Project for School Improvement (Projeto de Melhoria da Escola) PNAD National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios) PNUD United Nations Development Program (Programa das Na,ces Unidas para o Desenvolvimento) PROGESTAO School Directors Distance Management Training (Programa de Capacita,cao a Distdncia para Gestores Escolares) RENAGESTE National Network of Reference in Educational Management (Rede Nacional de Referencia em Gestao Educacional) RESTART Restart Program (Programa de Apoio a Educa,co de Jovens e Adultos no Ensino Fundamental - Programa Recome,o) SPAECENET State Education Evaluation System (Sistema Permanente de Avalia,co Educacional do Estado do Ceard) SAEPE System for Evaluating the State of Pemambuco (Sistema de Avalia,co do Estado de Pernambuco) SAEB National System for Basic Education Evaluation (Sistema Nacional de Avalia,co da Educa,co Bdsica) SESI Industrial Social Service (Servi,o Social da Industria) UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UEX Executing Unit (Unidade Executora) Vice President, LCR: David de Ferranti Country Director, LCC5C: Vinod Thomas Sector Director, LCSHD: Ana-Maria Arriagada Team Leader, LCSHD: Maria Madalena R.dos Santos ii TABLE ¢OIF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements vi Executive Summary vii I. Introduction 11 1. Objectives and Scope 11 2. Background 12 3. State Specific Issues 13 II. Determinants of Education Exclusion in Maranhao, Paraiba, 15 Pemambuco, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Norte 1. Study Objectives and Design 15 2. Regional Differences in Education Coverage, Dropout Rates and 16 Overage enrollment 3. Explaining the Dropout Process 21 4. Conclusions 25 III. Qualitative Aspects of Education Exclusion in Rural Schools and 27 Especially Vulnerable Groups 1. Study Design 27 2. Qualification of Teachers 28 3. Organization of Time 31 4. Teaching Practices 33 5. Conclusions 36 6. Especially Vulnerable Groups: Indigenous and Quilombo Education 38 IV. Education of Young Adults 45 1. Introduction 45 2. Objectives of the Study 45 3. Evolution of Public Policy 46 4. Education and the Labor Market 48 5. Education Levels 52 6. Conclusions 56 V. Assessing the Impact of School Autonomy Models on Increasing 58 Efficiency and Quality of Education and Minimizing Exclusion 1. Introduction 58 2. Background of the School Autonomy Movement in Brazil 58 3. Stages of Implementation of the School Autonomy Programs in Brazil 60 4. School Autonomy in Selected States: Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro 61 5. School Autonomy Strategies as Seen by Schools 65 6. Conclusions and Recommendations 71 VI. Financial Aspects of the Education Reform in Maranhao, Parafba, 76 Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro I. Study Objectives and Design 76 2. Overview of the Current Situation 76 3. Alternative Future Scenarios 80 4. Simulation Results 82 5. Conclusions 87 Vii. General Conclusions and Recommendations 89 Bibliography 92 TABLES Table 1 Population Who Never Attended School by State and Age Group 17 (1999) Table 2 Incidence of Dropouts by State and Age Group (1999) 18 Table 3 Education Level of School-Age Population (7-17 age group) Dropouts 19 by State (1999) Table 4 Students with Age-Grade Gaps Greater than Two Years by State 19 (2000) Table 5 Children and Adolescents Aged 7-17 Years at Risk (2000) 20 Table 6 Levels of estimated coefficients for pooled regressions 23 Table 7 Levels of estimated coefficients for pooled regressions by social group 24 Table 8 Qualification of Teachers in the Top and Bottom Rural Schools 30 According to the Main Educational Stakeholders in Maranhao Table 9 Qualification of Teachers in the Top and Bottom Rural Schools 31 According to Main Educational Stakeholders - Paraiba Table 10 Organization of Time - Maranhao 32 Table 11 Organization of the Time - Parafba 33 Table 12 Teaching Practices - Maranhao 35 Table 13 Teaching Practices - Paraiba 36 Table 14 Brazil: Employment Rates by Gender, Age Group and Level of 49 Education, 1981 and 1999 (in percentages) Table 15 Brazil: Employment Formalization by Gender, Age and Education 50 Table 16 Labor Earnings by Gender, Age and Education Level, 1999 51 Table 17 Levels of Schooling for the 18-25 age group, 1999 53 Table 18 Distribution of Young Adults 18-25 Years Old by Level of Schooling, 54 Gender, Color, Household Position, Employment Status and State of Residence (in Percentages) Table 19 Students Aged 18 to 24 years by Education Level for Brazil and 55 Selected States - 2000 Table 20 Percentage of Students who are Taught by Teachers with Higher 56 Education (in Percentages) Table 21 Comparative Data on Estimated Per Student Expenditure (2000 R$) 81 Table 22 Relation Between Share of Education Expenditure to GDP under 87 Different Scenarios lV GRAPHS Graph 1 The process of dropping out of school by age bracket in Rio de Janeiro 21 Graph 2 School's Perception on Autonomy - Pernambuco 66 Graph 3 School's Perception on Autonomy - Rio de Janeiro 66 Graph 4 In-service Training in Pernambuco's Schools 67 FIGURES Figure I Average Earnings for Men by Age and Education Level, 1981-1999 51 Figure 2 Average Earnings for Women by Age and Education Level, 1981-1999 52 Figure 3 Young Adults Aged 18-25 by Levels of Education 53 BOXES Box I Who share responsibilities for indigenous people education? 40 Box 2 Perceptions of Indigenous Students About How They Are Viewed by 42 Non-Indigenous Students CHART Chart 1 Explanatory Factors and Dimensions Measured 28 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The team responsible for this report was led by Maria Madalena R. dos Santos (LCSHD), and comprises Maria Valeria Junho-Pena (LCSEO), Andrea Guedes (LCSHD) and Anna Sant'Anna (consultant). The major contributing studies are the following: Case Studies of Maranhao, by Alberto Rodriguez (WB); Paraiba, by Dorte Verner (WB); Pernambuco, by Edenise Galindo (consultant) and Andrea Guedes (WB); and Rio de Janeiro, by Armando Castelar Pinheiro (consultant) and Ricardo Silveira (WB). "Fiscal Considerations in Education: The Cases of Maranhao, Paraiba, Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro", by Armando Castelar Pinheiro. "Education exclusion among indigenous and quilombos communities", by Maria Valeria Pena and Vania de Franco. "A Escola e os Jovens de 18 a 25 Anos", by Bernardo Kipnis and Luiza Carvalho (UNDP) and Sergei Soares (IPEA). "EFA - Brazil Education for All: Goals Met", by Madalena R. dos Santos (WB), and Sergei Soares (IPEA). "Determinants of Educational Exclusion in Five States of Brazil": Maranhao, MA; Parafba, PB; Pernambuco, PE; Rio de Janeiro, RJ; and Rio Grande do Norte, RN, by Regis Bonelli and Alinne Veiga. "Fatores Determinantes do Sucesso e/ou Fracasso das Escolas Rurais dos Estados da Parafba e do Maranhao". by Jose Edson Gomes da Silva. "Autonomia Escolar no Brasil - Visao Geral e em Estados Selecionados - Pemambuco/Rio de Janeiro", by Aglae de Medeiros Machado. "Autonomia Escolar no Estado de Pernambuco e Resultado dos Grupos Focais", by Ana Galheigo and Tereza Lobo. "Views of Youngsters About Educational Exclusion", by Tania Salem. The study also benefited from contributions given by Suhas Parandekar and Indermit Gill (WB) and from the discussions held with officials and specialists from the Brazilian Government during the MACs (Marco de Aprendizagem Continua - Continuous Learning Framework) organized by Ricardo Silveira in Brazil. This effort is a result of the World Bank's collaboration with UNDP-Brazil, CONSED, National Council of State Education Secretaries, and the Secretariats of Education of Maranhao, Paraiba, Pemambuco, and the State of Rio de Janeiro. The main intended audiences for this report are the federal, state, and municipal governments of Brazil, the World Bank staff, donors and partner organizations. The authors would like to especially thank Indermit Gill for the guidance and support throughout the study, and Fabiana Rezende Imperatriz for the assistance in finalizing the report. Last but not least, we would like to thank the government of the states involved in the study for their collaboration and the countless individuals in Brazil who contributed time, information, and insights into the production of this report. While this report has been discussed with institutions and individuals of the Brazilian Government, the views expressed here are exclusively those of the World Bank. vi Next Steps for Education in Brazil Executive Summary Over the last decade, there has been a massive expansion in the provision of basic education and at the same time a reduction in the regional differences in quality and access to education and in enrollment. However, some major challenges remain, particularly in the Northeast region where poverty is highly concentrated. Despite increasing national economic growth rates and a more stable economic environment after the introduction of the Real Plan in 1994, the poverty rate in the Northeast is declining at a slower pace than in other regions. Also, the Northeastern region's illiteracy rate for the population 15 years and older ' is twice as high as the national average. Despite the major efforts made by the government to raise enrollments, one of the serious pending challenges facing educational policymakers in Brazil today is to reach groups of children that are failing to benefit from the public education system. Some of these children are excluded from the system altogether, while others drop out, constantly repeat school grades, or cannot sustain the ability to learn. Poverty is the main reason behind exclusion. Some poor people are unable to access educational opportunities because they are discriminated against on the basis of their ethnicity or gender. Others may have been physically or mentally impaired by a lack of nutrients when they were growing up, by violent situations they may have faced, by drugs, or by other factors that need to be understood by policymakers. Therefore, making education available to all means not only providing high-quality educational opportunities but also improving the environments in which children are raised. This report identifies those students excluded from education opportunities and suggests ways in which they could be included in the future based on an analysis of successful experiences elsewhere in Brazil and in other countries. The analysis covers four Brazilian states: Rio de Janeiro in the Southeast region and Maranhao, Paraiba, and Pernambuco in the Northeast region. In addition, data from the state of Rio Grande do Norte was also analyzed in the first part of the study. The states were selected based on their incidence of poverty and of educational failure and exclusion, as well as on the extent to which education authorities at the state level had expressed interest in educational reform. Illiteracy rates : 24,3 % in the Northeastern region and 12,4 % in Brazil. IBGE/PNAD 2001. vii The Determinants of Educational Exclusion Three key factors define educational exclusion - never having attended school, having an age-grade gap of more than two years, or having dropped out of school. Approximately 80 percent of children younger than the age of five have never been to school. This is particularly evident in the Northeast states. For those children who do attend school but fail to learn, multiple grade repetitions lead to increasingly wider age- grade gaps that significantly increase the risk of dropout. Age-grade gaps of two years or more are common in all of the states being studied. However, the decision to drop out of school is the most important of these factors. For the most part, those who drop out of school do so before completing the basic education cycle, and the propensity to drop out increases significantly from age 12 onward. The number of school-age youngsters who have dropped out of school in the five states analyzed in this report totals more than 600,000. When children drop out of school, they do so for a variety of different reasons including low family income, low parental education levels, migration, living in a single-parent household, having a large number of siblings, and having to work. Gender differences in the factors behind the decision to drop out of school are found, particularly among the younger age group, and racial differences are also apparent. The Educational Exclusion of Rural, Ilndigenous, and Quillombo Chdidren Rural children and youths have a higher propensity to be excluded from educational opportunities than their urban counterparts, though, in some rural schools student performance is above the state average. This is the case in Maranhao. Thus, it is important to know what factors make students excel in some rural schools and not in others. The study found several exclusionary characteristics of rural schools in Maranhao and Paraiba including uncritical and self-congratulatory teachers and principals and unhappy but voiceless parents. In general, rural schools suffered from low teacher qualifications, limited community participation, a large age-grade gap, and the irrelevance of most courses content, all of which are major obstacles to maximizing inclusion. The particular cultural characteristics of quilombo and indigenous people in rural areas compound the other factors, making these children especially vulnerable to being excluded from school. Brazil has a population of approximately 700,000 indigenous individuals according to the 2000 Census. It also has a population of quilombos, which are groups of slave descendents who have lived together for centuries in small rural localities. Children from both of these communities seem to suffer from educational exclusion based less on socioeconomic factors (although they are very poor) than on their specific characteristics. viii The fundamental problem is that the education system does not cater to the needs of these communities. For example, schools that offer higher grades are not located in indigenous villages. For cultural reasons and because of fear of prejudice, parents are reluctant to send their children to these outside schools. Also, because indigenous villages are usually located far away from a municipal center, students would need to walk great distances to reach them. As a result, most indigenous or quilombo children drop out of school after the fourth grade and do not complete the fundamental education stage. Thus, there is clearly a need for policymakers to adopt educational approaches that take account of all of the many different perspectives of the Brazilian population - whether cultural, gender-based, or income-related. There is also a need for policies to address the specific problems of rural schools, including their geographical isolation, the likelihood that their teachers have no formal qualifications, the preponderance of over-aged students, and the lack of teaching support systems. The Education of Young Adults Young adults aged 15 to 24 represent 20.1 percent of the total population of Brazil, and their absolute numbers have increased substantially in recent decades. This group has special education needs for several reasons - they are already autonomous adults, they have developed their emotional, mental, and physical capacities, they are no longer dependents and, if they choose to continue studying, often have to combine school with work and family responsibilities. More than two-thirds of the young adults in Brazil today are out of school, and approximately half of them have not completed basic education. Their employment prospects are bleak - they now have less access to formal jobs than they did in the early 1980s - and their earnings have declined. Workers with low education levels are destined to be poor, and their low education levels may lower the development prospects of their children. Because young adults are a heterogeneous group, they need a range of different education options including distance education, accelerated classes, external certification, and modular courses. The policy priority should be to expand access to existing programs that successfully address the education needs of young adults, to improve their quality, to improve coordination among them, and to ensure that they complement each other more effectively. Teachers should be given adequate in-service training designed to address the needs of young adults, and education programs should offer childcare and job training to prevent young people who are married and have children from dropping out. School Autonomy as a Way of Increasing Efficiency and Minimizing Exclusion In the last decade, the adoption of school autonomy has been a trend in Brazil as part of the strategy to increase the quality of education. In the concept of school autonomy, all ix members of the school community (principals, teachers, parents, and community members) are involved in making decisions regarding school governance and management, strategic planning, school financing, and accountability. There is evidence that schools tend to be more accountable for their performance when parents and community members participate in their governance and when schools use instructional materials based on local school and community conditions. These are also considered to be relevant factors in minimizing school exclusion. Analysis of the experiences of the ongoing school autonomy programs of Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco as well as lessons from international experiences show that successful implementation of a school autonomy program requires: o Reorganizing institutional structures at the central/regional level and clearly defining their functions and authority o Defining clear roles and responsibilities for school communities o Developing school plans that translate school decisions into tangible improvements o Improving the financing mechanisms and the instruments for transferring resources to schools o Establishing a sound mechanism for ensuring school accountability o Ensuring that all school personnel to develop the skills that they will need to implement school autonomy programs. Financial Aspects of Education IReform The study examined the fiscal viability of simultaneously improving the quality and expanding the coverage of basic education in the four states that were analyzed. It found that education reform is financially viable in the four states because enrollment dynamics will create an opportunity to increase expenditures per student, thus making it possible to improve educational quality without increasing the share of education expenditures in GDP. This will be even more feasible if the school system can be made to operate more efficiently. The decade between 2010 and 2020 will provide the most opportunities to increase education expenditures per student, but fiscally conservative governments can still improve the quality of education during this decade as long as GDP and fiscal revenues grow at a moderate pace. Conclusions Education as a poverty-reduction instrument depends not only on the availability and quality of schools and teachers but also on support from families and the involvement of neighborhoods. School relevance and quality of education are critical factors for reaching the more vulnerable groups and enabling them to acquire new skills and expand their knowledge. To succeed with these more vulnerable groups, the government should focus on educational policies that will: * Increase access to educational opportunities for rural populations, quilombos, indigenous groups, the disabled, low-income groups, and young adults * Reform education management by redefining the role of central agencies in supporting autonomous schools and quality improvements * Increase funding for education by using savings from making education services more efficient, by reallocating resources from other areas of public expenditure, and by mobilizing private sector financing. xi I. Introduction 1. Objectives and Scope This report identifies those students excluded from education opportunities with the objective of suggesting ways in which they can be included. The analysis covers four Brazilian states: Rio de Janeiro in the Southeast region and Maranhao, Paraiba and Pemambuco in the Northeast region. In addition data from the state of Rio Grande do Norte was also analyzed in the first part of the study. The states were selected based on the incidence of poverty and education failure and exclusion, as well as on the interest in education reform expressed by education authorities at state level. Although Rio de Janeiro has a high GDP compared to the Northeast states, it has a large-scale poverty problem affecting an estimated 1.5 million people and also a large problem of education exclusion. The report attempts to identify strategies to minimize education exclusion and to improve education outcomes in the four states, based on the analysis of progress achieved thus far and successful experiences elsewhere in Brazil and in other countries. Hopefully, this stocktaking exercise will be a useful input in the policy dialogue between the World Bank and the Federal and State Governments of Brazil . The report is organized as follows: Chapter II deals with the issue of education exclusion in the four states, presenting estimates of the number of children who never attended school, those who attended school in the past but have dropped out, and those who are still in school but have large age-grade gaps that put them at risk of dropping out. Given that a high dropout rate is the most important reason for education exclusion, this chapter concludes with an econometric analysis of the socio-economic determinants of dropout. The analysis focuses on the states of Maranhao, Parafba, Pernambuco, and Rio de Janeiro. In addition, data from the state of Rio Grande do Norte was also analyzed. Chapter HI presents a qualitative analysis of education exclusion, based on conditions prevailing in rural areas in Maranhao and Paral'ba where the views of the school community on the quality of education are analyzed. In addition, it examines the education conditions experienced by Indigenous and Quilombo students as case studies of especially vulnerable groups. Chapter IV presents the special education problems of young adults aged 18-25 and suggests programs to address their needs. Chapter V examines under what conditions school autonomy strategies make a positive impact on education outcomes and minimize education exclusion. This part of the analysis complements the first two by shedding light on the school-based factors that I contribute to education failure and exclusion. The analysis focuses on the experience with school autonomy in Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco. Chapter VI reviews state and municipal expenditures on education for the four states and presents alternative scenarios for increasing education quality while maintaining fiscal integrity. The scenarios simulate different levels of expenditure per student under constant as well as improved efficiency assumptions. They simulate the impact of these various alternatives on the share of education expenditure to GDP in each state. Chapter VII concludes the report by presenting a final set of findings and policy options derived from these findings. Annex I provides basic education indicators for the states considered. The report is based on extensive analytical work produced by Brazilian experts from a number of institutions, including PNUD, IPEA, and individual consultants, in addition to the contributions from Bank staff. Much of the richness of their contributions has been omitted in this summary. Hopefully, what is presented here will stimulate the reader to consult the original sources.' 2. Background The report examines the performance of the Brazilian education system over the last decade, during which time many sound education sector reforms were carried out, particularly in basic education. There has been a massive expansion in the provision of basic education and at the same time a reduction in the regional differences in quality and access to education. Net enrollment rates in basic education in the country as a whole rose from 80.3 percent in 1980 to 83.8 percent in 1991 and to 95.4 percent in 1999. Regional inequalities in enrollment have fallen significantly. Current net enrollment in the Northeast is 93 percent compared to 98 percent in the Southeast, whereas the difference was 69 to 90 percent in 1980. However, some major challenges remain, particularly in the Northeast region where poverty is highly concentrated (63 percent of Brazil's poor live in the region). Despite increasing national economic growth rates and a more stable economic environment after the introduction of the Real Plan in 1994, the poverty rate in the Northeast is declining at a slower pace than in other regions. The Northeastern region's illiteracy rate for the population 15 years and older is twice as high as the national average (27 percent versus 13 percent respectively). As much as 45 percent of the rural population is considered illiterate compared to one-third of rural inhabitants in the country as a whole. These statistics persist despite the rise in school enrollment for children aged 7 to 14 years in this region. 'See list of the main studies in the acknoledgement page. 2 One of the serious pending challenges facing educational policymakers in Brazil today is to reach groups of children that are failing to benefit from the public education system. Some of these children are excluded from the system altogether, while others drop out, constantly repeat school grades, or cannot sustain the ability to learn. In seeking to address this problem, policymakers must recognize that educational achievement depends not only on the availability and quality of schools and teachers but also on a student's incentive to learn. Ultimately, schools, families, and communities are responsible for providing children with the necessary learning tools to enable them to earn an adequate livelihood and to avoid poverty, isolation, the inability to learn, boredom and alienation. Conceptually, children are excluded from education because they are in various situations that prevent them from accessing material, social, political, or symbolic resources. Poverty is the main reason behind exclusion because of the vulnerability it involves. However, poverty is a generic concept and covers many heterogeneous situations. Moreover, there are certain types of poor people who are more likely to take advantage of available opportunities than others. Some are unable to access educational opportunities because they are discriminated against on the basis of their ethnicity or gender. Others may have been physically or mentally impaired by a lack of nutrients when they were growing up, by violent situations they may have faced, by drugs or by other factors that need to be understood by policymakers. Therefore, making education available to all means not only providing good schools and enhancing the quality of schooling, but improving the environment in which children are raised. 3. State-Specific Issues (a) Maranhao. Given the state's widely dispersed population, a lack of qualified teachers, and insufficient number of schools, the option of distance education might be a worthwhile strategy to increase educational access. To complement this strategy, education authorities in Maranhao have already identified the need to reallocate existing school capacity to better serve rural areas. The lack of qualified teachers calls for measures to enhance teacher training and to create financial incentives that make the teaching career more attractive. To provide the institutional framework that can make these reforms a reality, Maranhao is likely to need stronger institutional capacity. This can be enhanced by increasing accountability through school-based evaluation systems, expanding community participation, mobilizing the collaboration of non-governmental organizations in education, and creating strong state-municipal partnerships that support the weaker schools in the system. (b) Paraiba. Historic high illiteracy rates and low educational achievement rates have not yet abated in spite of the large gains in education coverage achieved by the state. To minimize education exclusion and to break the inter-generational cycle of poverty, Paraf'ba might consider a number of integrated strategies. Demand for education can be 3 raised by providing direct financial incentives for families to send their children to school. This could be accomplished by expanding the coverage of programs such as Bolsa Escola. Inequalities can be minimized by increasing attention to conditions in rural schools, helping to bridge the gap between rural and urban education outcomes. The rate of school failure may be reduced by improving the qualifications of teachers and by giving them a better command of classroom skills. In parallel, school principals could be trained in providing pedagogic inputs to the teaching process and engaging the entire school community in the task of improving the quality of education and its outcomes. (c) Pemambuco. Education authorities in Pernambuco are fully aware of the challenges they face: limited access to education for certain groups, lack of trained teachers in some key disciplines (such as math, physics, chemistry and biology), relatively high incidence of child/youth labor due to poverty, and less than effective performance of the basic education system. Among the strategies that Pernambuco might consider to redress this situation are measures to support school autonomy and community involvement, interventions to raise the quality of the services delivered, incentives for families to send their children to school and keep them there, and a stronger partnership between the state and the municipalities to improve education outcomes. (d) Rio de Janeiro. The coverage of basic education is presently quite high in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Those who never attended school are concentrated in the older age brackets, reflecting the educational inequality patterns of the past. Nevertheless, there are more than a half-million youngsters aged 7-17 who are at risk of education failure, due primarily to wide age-grade gaps and high dropout rates. Clearly, the most important strategy that the state may choose to pursue to improve education outcomes is one that concentrates on improving the quality of the services delivered to raise efficiency in student flows and to achieve better educational outcomes. Fortunately, the state has the necessary resources to invest in quality education. 4 II. Determinants of Education Exclusion in Maranhao, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Norte 1. Study Objectives and Design One of the main challenges for educational policymakers in Brazil is to reach those who cannot access the school system fully, either because they do not attend school at all or, when attending, they repeat grades several times -- which eventually leads to dropout. These are factors that lower the population's education level, make good jobs difficult to obtain, and, ultimately, create and expand poverty and inequality. The primary goal of this chapter is to measure the rate of school dropout and to explain the process that leads youngsters to abandon the formal educational system before completing their basic schooling. Additionally, other aspects of educational exclusion and system failures, such as grade repetition, starting school late or not at all are reviewed.2 Specifically, the chapter attempts to determine: (a) the scale of the dropout problem in absolute numbers and as a share of relevant age groups; (b) the size of the age-grade gap; (c) the age brackets in which the problem is more acute; and (d) the reasons why dropout occurs. The data source used is the Brazilian 1999 National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios -- PNAD), which is based on a sample of dwellings, with each member of the household living in each dwelling being included in the survey. Children can be out of school or not in the ideal grade for their age for a number of reasons, some interconnected and probably associated with household income and other household characteristics. One of the aims of this study is to understand the relationships among the key socioeconomic determinants of exclusion from educational opportunities faced by children and youths. Because one is a dropout in 1999 does not mean that that individual will never to return to school at a later date.3 Temporary dropout is a phenomenon observed particularly among younger children and certain ethnic groups and is an important feature of the Brazilian education system, as it leads to wider age-grade gaps and eventually to definitive dropout. Depending on labor market conditions, youths older than age 15 might also return to school after having dropped out. 4 A dropout is defined as a child or youth (7-17 years old) who had been, but was no longer in school when the survey was conducted. In narrower terms, a dropout is defined as one 2 Throughout this report, the first 8 grades of basic education are referred to as Fundamental Education and grades 9 to 11 as Lower Secondary Education. Grades 12-14 that comprise High School are referred to as Upper-Secondary Education. Another convention refers to "children" (up to 9 years old) and "youths" (10 years and older). 3 With the available data it is not possible to determine if someone has returned to school after having dropped out This would require a completely different approach and data. But it is possible to provide measures of youths who never attended school, classified in separate age brackets. 4A recent comparative study on the choice to work versus study is Corseuil et alli (2001). See Bibliography for additional references 5 who had been in school but has left it before completing the 8 grades of fundamental education. This is the definition of "dropout" used for the purposes of the econometric analysis. For purpose of measurement, a broader definition of dropout was also used, i.e., those who are less than 18 years old and out of school after completing the fundamental education cycle (grades 1-8). To analyze what factors account for the propensity of children and youths to drop out of school, nine variables were used in a regression equation in which the dependent variable is a binary variable that assumes the value I if the child or youth is a dropout and 0 otherwise. The explanatory variables are: (i) location of household (rural or urban); (ii) household structure; (iii) household income per capita; (iv) education of parents; (v) number of siblings; (vi) ethnicity of the child; (vii) gender of the child; (viii) child labor or youth work; and (ix) migration experience.5 The remainder of this chapter is divided in three sections. The next section measures educational exclusion based on the available statistics for non-school attendance, dropout rates and age-grade gaps. Section 3 is devoted to the explanation of the dropout process. The summary of findings and conclusions is presented in the last section. 2. Regional Diferences in Education Coverage, Dropout Rates and Overage Enrrollment (a) ChiDdren and Youths Excluded Because They Never Attended SchooD Among the 13.8 million inhabitants in Rio de Janeiro, about 6.3 percent (876,000 people 5 years or older) have no formal schooling. Children less than 5 years old represent an additional 5.1 percent of the population who never attended school (703,000). Results by age groups reflect the important changes that occurred in the Brazilian educational system during the last 20 years, leading to almost universal coverage of fundamental education by the end of the 1990s. The number of those who never attended school declined from 7.1 percent among those 26 years or older to 0.9 percent for the 7-17 age group. In Maranhao, 20.2 percent of the population aged 5 and older has never been to school, or about 1.1 million people, and 28.2 percent of those 26 or older (619,500 people) fall in the same category. The situation of the school-age children (7-17 years old) is better but worrisome nevertheless, because approximately 37,900 children in this age group have never been to school. 6 In Rio Grande do Norte, approximately 288,000 people aged 5 and older never attended school, equivalent to 10.8 percent to the state population, and 5 This ad hoc procedure is justified by the lack of a structural model describing the relevant relationships. Thus, it is entirely based on our economic intuition and conditioned by the availability of data. Note that a non-dropout status (value 0) includes two different conditions: (a) still in school; (b) left school after completing a given number of years, it refers to ex-students who completed high school. 6 The estimates by age-group in Maranhao and Rio Grande do Norte are not reliable at the 5 percent confidence level. 6 the proportion of the school-age population out of school is relatively high at about 1.3 percent. The results for Paraiba and Pernambuco are similar to those for Rio Grande do Norte. Those who never attended school in Paraiba account for approximately 11.9 percent of the total population, and for about 13.7 percent in Pernambuco. Thus, despite the dramatic increase in basic education coverage, in 1999 a total of 139,500 school-age children (7-17) in these 5 states had never attended school. The number of children and youths (5-17) who had never attended school by 1999 is 388,500 (see Table 1). Table 1. Population Who Never Attended School by State and Age Group (1999) Rio de Janeiro Total Population ('000) Never Attended School ('000) No. _ _No. % in age group % in state Total 13,837 100 1,579 11.4 5-25 yrs. 4,878 35.3 143.3 2.9 9.1 5-17 yrs. 3,003 21.7 116.3 3.9 7.4 7-17 yrs. 2,568 18.6 23.9 0.9 1.5 26 yrs or older 8,319 60 2 592.5 7.1 37.5 5 yrs or older 13,197 95.4 876.0 6.6 55.5 Maranhao Total 5,433 100 1,269 23.4 5-25 yrs. 2,631 48.4 149.1 5.7 11.7 5-17 yrs. 1,872 34.5 86.5 4.6 6.8 7-17 yrs. 1,620 29.8 37.9 2.3 3.0 26 yrs or older 2,197 40.4 619.5 28.2 48.8 5 yrs or older 4,828 88.9 1 1,095 1 22.7 86.2 Rio Grande do Norte Total 2,662 100 458.6 17.2 5-25 yrs. 1,179 44.3 38.9 3.3 8.5 5-17 yrs. 763 28.7 24.1 3.3 5.3 7-17 yrs. 640 24.0 7.4 1.3 1.6 26 yrs or more 1,257 47.2 217.7 17.3 47.5 5 yrs or older 2,436 91.5 288.1 11.8 62.8 Parai'ba Total 3,381 100 622.4 18.4 5-25 yrs. 1,449 42.9 52.9 3.7 8.5 5-17 yrs. 955 28.2 35.8 3.8 5.8 7-17 yrs. 821 24.3 14.6 1.8 2.3 26 yrs or older 1,601 47.4 299.4 18.7 48 1 5 yrs or older 3,050 90.2 402.7 13.2 64.7 Pernambuco Total 7,594 100 1,498 19.7 5-25 yrs. 3,312 43.6 178.7 5.4 11.9 5-17 yrs. 2,183 28.7 125.8 5.8 8.4 7-17 yrs. 1,867 24.6 55.7 3.0 3.7 26 yrs or older 3,497 46.1 678.1 19.4 45.3 5yrs or older 6,809 89.7 1,038.3 15.2 69.3 Source: PNAD 1999. 7 (b) The Exciuided Who Dzropped Out of SchooR The scale of the dropout problem is much larger than that of people who never attended school, and represents almost two-thirds of those excluded for both reasons in the 5-25 age group. More than one-third in this age group is excluded from education for one of those reasons. Notwithstanding the increase in the coverage of basic education in Brazil, the weak capacity of schools to retain students is dramatically illustrated by the conditions in the five states. The share of the school-age youngsters (ages 7-17) who are excluded ranges from 6.2 percent in Rio de Janeiro to 10.2 percent in Pernambuco, and affects a total of 602,000 young people in the five states considered. The relevant figures are shown in the following table. TabRe 2. llncidence of Dropouuts by State and Age Group (1999) Not in school but Never Attended School Total (a + b) Attended in the past (a) (b) Age Group No. % in age No. % in ageinag group I group group Rio de Janeiro 5-25 yrs. 1,414 29.0 143.3 2.9 1,557.3 31.9 5-17 yrs. 163 5.4 116.3 3.9 279.3 9.3 7-17 yrs. 158 6.2 23.9 0.9 181.9 7.1 Maranhao 5-25 yrs. 626 23.7 149.1 5.7 775.1 1 29.5 5-17 yrs. 133 7.1 86.5 4.6 219.5 11.7 7-17 yrs. 133 8.2 37.9 2.3 170.9 10.5 Rio Grande do Norte 5-25 yrs. 330 28.0 38.9 3.3 368.9 31.3 5-17 yrs. 61 8.0 24.1 3.3 | 85.1 11.2 7-17 yrs. 58 9.1 7.4 1.3 _ _65.4 10.2 Parai'ba 5-25 yrs. 366 25.3 52.9 3.7 418.9 28.9 5-17 yrs. 65 6.8 35.8 3.8 100.8 10.6 7-17 yrs. 63 7.7 14.6 1.8 77.6 9.5 Pernambuco 5-25 yrs. 927 28.0 178.7 5.4 1,105.7 | 33.4 5-17 yrs. 200 9.2 125.8 5.8 325.8 | 14.9 7-17 yrs. 190 10.2 55.7 3.0 245.7 | 13.2 Source: PNAD 1999. The next table shows dropouts within the school-age population (7-17 yrs) by level of education. In the Northeast states, nearly all dropouts left school before completing basic education, and in Rio de Janeiro only an estimated 10 percent report having completed that cycle before dropping out of school. 8 Table 3. Education Level of School-Age Population (7-17 age group) Dropouts by State (1999) Incomplete Basic Completed Basic Percentage of State Education ('000) Education ('000) Incomplete (%) Rio de Janeiro 143.7 14.4 90.9 Maranhao 131.0 2.5 98.2 Rio Grande do Norte 56.7 1.5 97.5 Paraf'ba 63.0 0.5 99.2 Pernambuco 185.6 4.7 97.5 Source: PNAD 1999. (c) The Age-Grade Gap The age-grade gap is one of the reasons why students leave school permanently. The experience of successive grade repetitions and an increasingly wider age-grade gap causes students to loose motivation and leave school. In this study, only age-grade gaps (AG) greater than two years are considered. The following table totals all sizes of age- grade gaps larger than two years for each state. Table 4. Students with Age-Grade Gaps Greater than Two Years by State (2000) Total Pop in Age Age-Grade Gap Age-Grade Gap % in Age Group State Group Students. % (?) Rio de Janeiro 5-25 years 4,878 718 21.6 14.7 5-17 years 3,003 394 14.5 13.1 7-17 years 2,568 394 16.5 15.3 Maranhao 5-25 years 2,631 731 39.4 27.8 5-17 years 2,872 570 34.5 19.8 7-17 years 1,620 570 39.3 35.2 Rio Grande do Norte 5-25 years 1,179 257 31.7 21.8 5-17 years 763 162 23.8 21.2 7-17 years 640 162 28.1 25.3 Parai'ba 5-25 years 1,449 370 36.0 25.5 5-17 years 955 246 38.9 25.8 7-17 years 821 246 33.2 30.0 Pernambuco 5-25 years 3,312 757 34.4 22.9 5-17 years 2,183 491 | 26.5 22.5 7-17 years 1,867 491 l 30.3 26.3 Source: PNAD 1999. The problem of overage students is severe in all five states. Together, a total of 2.8 million students are affected. For the school-age population (7-17 yrs.), an age-grade gap of more than two years represents between 25 and 35 percent of total enrollment in the 9 Northeast states and 15 percent of total enrollment in Rio de Janeiro. Although it is widely accepted that successive repetitions of the same grade lead many students to drop out, it is not clear how fast the dropout rate climbs as the number of repetitions increases. Table 5 clearly shows that there is a very large group of children and adolescents (7-17 yrs.) who are at risk. This group comprises more than a half-million people each in the states of Rio de Janeiro (576,000), Maranhao (741,000) and Pernambuco (737,000), 324,000 in Paraiba, and 227,000 in Rio Grande do Norte. In all four Northeast states, children and adolescents at risk represent a large share of their respective age groups, ranging from 35.5 percent in Rio Grande do Norte to 45.7 percent in Maranhao. Table 5. Chlldren and Adollescents Aged 7-17 Yeairs at lRisk ('000) Rio de Maranhao Rio G. Norte Paraiba Pernambuco Janeiro Never Attended 24 38 7 15 56 Dropped Out 158 133 58 63 190 + 2 yrs age-grade gap 394 570 162 246 491 Total at Risk 576 741 227 324 737 Total in Age Group 2,568 1,620 640 821 1867 % at Risk in Age 22.4 45.7 35.5 39.4 39.5 Group Source: PNAD 1999. (d) The IDropout Pirocess The Rio de Janeiro data present a picture of the ages at which students drop out. The analysis focuses on the group aged 20 years or younger, but the graph also shows the proportions up to 30-year-olds. Results indicate that while the children in the 7-11 age group are almost all in school, school attendance after age 11 begins to decline rapidly. By age 19, only 44 percent are still in school. In other words, between the ages of 12 and 19 approximately 21 percent either graduate or drop out of school. As shown earlier, most of these dropouts occur before completing fundamental education (grades 1-8). Graph 1 shows 5 different dropout situations: (a) all who attended school in the past but are out of school now [blue]; (b) those who left school after less than eight years of education [violet] (c) those who left school after less than 11 years of education [red] (d) those who left with complete fundamental education (grades 1-8) [dark green] (e) those who left with complete lower-secondary education (grades 9-11) [light green]. This graphic analysis leads to an important conclusion: the dropout process is more intense from age 12 onward. Typically, going from age 11 to age 12 increases the dropout probability from 1 to 2 percent. 10 Graph 1. The process of dropping out of school by age bracket in Rio de Janeiro 'Drp Out' Rio de Janeiro 7 0 5 -10 -- ------- : 15 dad 20- 25-30 04 - F-r-- - - t-- - - a - 0 - -- -- -- -- --m - - DrpR- -mno -e - 0,3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - u 0,2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _- ^ _ _ _ 0,3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -i/-4 -' ° S 10 Is Idad. 20 25 30 -Frequentaram mas ndo frequentam -*Drop Rulm - menos de a - Drop 'Bom- - otto ou mais -0Drop Rulm - Menols de I11 -Drop'Bom - Mals de 11 3. Explaining the Dropout Process The descriptive analysis above indicates that the probability of dropping out of school depends on age and state. For this reason, an econometric analysis was done for different age brackets in each state. The results of the respective regressions (all of them use weighted and non-weighted data) are presented in the unabridged version of this analysis.7 The aggregate results for all states are presented below, showing only the results that are significant at 5 percent confidence level. These pooled regressions add a new dummy variable to differentiate the Northeast States (one for each state), while Rio de Janeiro is treated as baseline. The explanatory variables comprising the logic and probit models are defined as follows: 7 Regis Bonelli and Alinne Veiga, "Determinants of Educational Exclusion in Five States of Brazil (Maranhao [MA], Parafba [PB], Pernambuco [PE], Rio de Janeiro [RJ], Rio Grande do Norte [RN]." Rio de Janeiro, June 2002.(processed) Name Expected Definition Coefficient Sign RURAL + Location of the household, rural assuming the value I SINGLE + Household structure, single-parent household assuming the value 1 INCOME In logs PERENEDU The highest number of years of education completed by either father or mother DEPRATIO + No. of dependents per working adult in the household SIBLINGS + No. of siblings NONWHITE + Indicator of race, nonwhite assuming the value I (the value 0 for this variable includes Indigenous peoples) GENDER Gender of the child, female assuming the value I WORKS59 + Children 7-9 years old working received the value 1 WORK_10 + Adolescents 10-17 years old working received the value 1 MIGEST + Migrant born in another state assumes the value 1 MIGMUN + Migrant born in another municipality in the same state assumes the value I The significant variables in all pooled regressions show the expected sign in the case of each of the three age groups analyzed. Results for the age group 7-9 years show that none of the dummy variables representing the states is significantly different than zero. In other words, the probability of dropping out of school is not different among the states in this age bracket. The only significant variables for this age group are municipal migration, family income and parents' education. For the age bracket 10-14 years, most variables are significant, and the list of significant variables for the 15-17 age bracket is similar. With respect to state specific particularities, the pooled regressions for the age bracket 10-14 show that Maranhao and Paraiba have a much lower probability for children to drop out than Rio de Janeiro; and in the age bracket 15-17, Maranhao shows a distinct pattern from that of other states and also a lower dropout probability than Rio de Janeiro. Overall, lower household income, parents' education and migration experience are the best predictors of dropout. Youth work is significant among youngsters 10 years and older but not for children 7-9 years old. The pooled regression results are shown below. 12 Table 6. Levels of estimated coefficients for pooled regressions I Parameter Standard Wald Pr> Standardized Odd Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio Children 7-9 All States INTERCPT I l -2.964 0.739 16.087 0.000 1 INCOME 1 -0.212 0.103 4.219 0.040 -0.136 0.809 PARENED 1 -0.103 0.044 5.407 0.020 -0.252 0.903 MIGMUM 1 0.990 0.367 7.278 0 007 0.152 2.690 Children 10-14 All States _ INTERCPT 1 -2.346 0387 6.788 0.000 SINGLE I 0.405 0.144 7.956 0.005 0.091 1.500 INCOME 1 -0.153 0.055 7.785 0.005 -0.097 0.858 PARENEDU 1 -0.112 0.021 29.745 0.000 -0.277 0.894 SIBLING 1 0.066 0.032 4.342 0.037 0.067 1.068 WORK 10 1 1.083 0.152 50.495 0.000 0.224 2.954 MIGMUN _ 0.693 0.164 17.808 0.000 0.122 2.000 Parameter Standard Wald Pr> Standardized Odd Variable DF Estimate Error Chi-Square Chi-Square Estimate Ratio MIGEST 1 0.670 0.231 8.436 0.004 0.082 1.954 Maranhao 1 -0.668 0.205 10.612 0.001 -0.155 0.513 Parafba I -0.584 0.246 5.615 0.018 -0.103 0.558 Youth 15-17 All States RURAL I 0.335 0.102 10.773 0.001 0.082 1.398 INCOME 1 -0.248 0.038 43.549 0.000 -0.161 0.780 PARENED 1 -0.130 0.013 100.221 0.000 -0.325 0.878 WORK 10 1 0.562 0.096 34.157 0.000 0.144 1.753 MIGMUN 1 0.476 0.115 17.247 0.000 0.093 1.609 Maranhao 1 -0.377 0.138 7.426 0.006 -0.085 0.686 Next, the analysis takes a step further to probe the impact of the explanatory factors for different social groups. The groups considered are divided along gender and ethnicity lines. The pooled regression coefficients for the four resulting social groups are shown in the next table. 13 Table 7: Levels of estimated coeffcienfts for jpooed regressions by sociaL group Age Groups: Ages 7-9 Ages 10-14 Ages 15-17 GENDER Females Income -0.35 Income -0.28 Rural 0.78 Parenedu -0.14 Parenedu -0.06 Income -028 Work_10 1.10 Parenedu -0.11 Migmun 0.89 Work_10 1.27 Maranhao -0.59 Migmun 0.52 Males Migmun 1.53 Single 0.62 Income -020 Parenedu -0.17 Parenedu -0.17 Work_10 1.05 Work-10 0.90 Migmun 0.47 Migmun 0.32 Maranhao -0.68 Migest 0.45 Maranhao -0.68 ________ __________________________________ Paraiba -0.48 RACE Nonwhites Parenedu -0.16 Single 0.53 Rural 0.32 Migmun 1.33 Parenedu -0.10 Income -010 Work_10 1.06 Parenedu -0.10 Migmun 0.77 Work_10 0.44 Migest 0.71 Migmun 0.52 Maranhao -0.70 Migest 0.48 Paralba -0.79 Maranhao -0.36 Paraflba -0.39 Age Groups: Ages 7-9 Ages 10-14 Ages 15-17 Whites Income -010 Income -027 | Rural 0.43 Parenedu -0.12 j Income -021 Work_10 1.16 j Parenedu -0.17 Sibling 0.13 j Work_10 0.87 _ Maranhao -0.72 These results add several insights to the analysis. Looking at young boys and girls, it is interesting to note that dropout among young girls is strongly affected by the educational level of their parents, compared to young boys who are not affected. Older boys and girls show a significant -- but not as strong -- impact of parents' education on their dropout decisions. At age 10, boys and girls share many common determinants of dropout behavior, and for both genders the impact of work is paramount. Although significant for both genders, work seems to affect the decision of girls to drop out even more than it does for boys. Living in a family with a single parent significantly impacts boys' decision to drop out compared to girls. On the other hand, when older girls (15-17) live in rural areas they tend to be more likely to drop out from school than boys, possibly reflecting earlier marriage patterns among rural girls. It is interesting to note that migration is an important determinant of dropout for both boys and girls. This suggests that measures to adjust the delivery of education services to 14 student migration patterns may result in reducing dropout rates, particularly among nonwhite children. Looking at the impact of race, it is clear that although whites and nonwhites share many common reasons for dropping out of school, there are important differences between the two groups. Between ages 7 and 9, black children drop out of school primarily because their parents' education is low and the family has migrated. White children, on the other hand, do so because their family income is low. For older black and white children, having to work is a more important determinant for whites than it is for nonwhites, although work has a significant impact on both groups. The experience of migration has a strong impact on a black child's propensity to drop out of school, but does not significantly affect the behavior of whites. 4. Conclusions Education coverage is quite high in all states, and this represents a substantial improvement as shown in the comparison between the 7-17 age bracket and older groups. Deficient coverage, reflected in the number of people who never attended school, is more common in the Northeast states than in Rio de Janeiro. This is true for all ages, but more noticeable in the 26 or older group. This indicates that educational coverage is better today, and also more equal regionally. This, in turn, may reflect regional differences in per capita income and level of urbanization. The coverage of preschool education for children aged 5-6 years is still quite modest, and approximately 80 percent of children younger than age five have never been to school. This is particularly evident in the Northeast states where a few thousand children at this age have already entered and left school. The decision to drop out of school is the most important aspect of educational exclusion. For school-age children (7-17 years), the dropout rate is 10.2 percent in Pernambuco, 9.1 percent in Rio Grande do Norte, 8.2 percent in Maranhao, 7.7 percent in Paraiba and 6.2 percent in Rio de Janeiro. This leads to the educational exclusion of more than 600,000 youngsters in the five states. For the most part, those who drop out of school in this age group do so before completing basic education, and the propensity to drop out increases significantly from age 12 onward. Multiple grade repetitions lead to increasingly wider age-grade gaps that significantly increase the risk of dropout. Age-grade gaps of two years or more are common in all states considered. For the school-age population, this problem affects more than one- fourth of the students, except in Rio de Janeiro, and it is particularly acute in Maranhao (39 percent) and Paraiba (33 percent). Nearly all the children and youngsters in the Northeastern states who left school did so before completing the basic education. This is not true in Rio de Janeiro. 15 The combination of the three factors that define education exclusion -- never having attended school, having a larger than 2 year age-grade gap, or having dropped out of school -- leads to the conclusion that a large segment of the 7-17 age group is at risk of educational exclusion in the five states. The young people at risk represent about 46 percent of the age group population in Maranhao, 40 percent in Pernambuco, 39 percent in Parafba, 36 percent in Rio Grande do Norte and 22 percent in Rio de Janeiro. The number of youngsters at risk in the five states adds up to 2.6 million, a staggering figure. The econometric analysis of the reasons why students drop out of school focused on socio-economic variables, omitting school-based factors due to the limitations of the database used. The most salient results from this analysis show that parents' education and household income are negatively associated with dropout, while youth work and migration are strong contributing factors. When children (7-14) drop out of school, in all states they do so for several reasons: their family income and their parents' education is low; and they have experienced migration that forces them to leave school in their place of origin and face difficulties in re-entering school in the new location. For the 10-14 age group, a number of additional factors increase the probability of dropping out of school, such as living in a single-parent household, having more siblings, and having to work. Adolescents aged 15-17 share most of the reasons for dropping out of school with the 10-14 group, except that at this age rural location becomes a significant factor, especially for young women. Gender differences in the decision to drop out of school are found particularly among the younger age group; girls 7-9 years old are more likely to drop out when their family is poor and their parents have low education levels. Boys at this age are significantly affected only by migration. For the 10-14 age group, boys differ from girls in that household income is not a significant determinant, but living in a single parent household is. Girls this age are affected by their family's income. For the older 15-17 age group, the most salient gender difference is the importance that rural residence assumes for girls, possibly reflecting a pattern of earlier marriage for them in rural areas. Racial differences are also apparent. Among the younger groups, migration and parental education significantly affect the behavior of nonwhites, but not that of whites. Whites are more likely to drop out because of lower family income. For older children, the reasons for dropping out of school are more numerous and similar for the two groups. In Rio de Janeiro, in all age groups, the probability of nonwhites to drop out is consistently higher than that of whites. 16 III. Qualitative Aspects of Education Exclusion in Rural Schools and Especially Vulnerable Groups As shown in Chapter II, parental education, family income, child and youth labor, and migration are the more influential factors determining school dropout rates in the states considered. In rural areas these factors are more common, and rural children and youths have a higher propensity to be excluded from educational opportunities than their urban counterparts. However, student performance varies among rural schools and, in fact, in some rural schools student performance is above the state average. This is the case in Maranhao. The first part of this chapter explores, from a school-level perspective, what factors make students excel in some rural schools. The second part focuses on especially vulnerable groups. 1. Study Design This analysis is based on a study that ranks rural schools in Maranhao and Paraiba according to student learning achievement test scores in the 1998 SAEB. It has been shown that SAEB results are overwhelmingly disappointing: (a) Learning performance is inferior to that expected in private, state and municipal schools. In public schools, only at the fourth grade of the fundamental cycle do students get close to the expected performance. (b) Although private schools are solidly ahead of public schools, the performance of their students is also below expectations. (c) More than 50 percent of students in public schools perform below average, which is already below the expected; (d) Content of the fourth grade of the fundamental cycle are mastered only at the eighth grade; students at the fourth grade barely understand the content of words they read. Students at the fourth and eighth grade are unable to read and understand a simple newspaper article. Consequently, a vast majority is not prepared to proceed to the secondary level of education (Araujo e Oliveira; Schwartzman, 2002). Nonetheless, there are differences among schools regarding their performance level, and students in some rural schools performed above their state's average. Forty rural schools among those that ranked highest and lowest in students' test scores were selected for detailed analysis.8 While the previous chapter focused on the determinants of educational exclusion from a household perspective, i.e. factors outside the school, the analysis in this chapter centers on three possible explanatory factors of school success in terms of learning achievement: teacher qualifications, organization of time, and teaching practices. For each of these factors, a set of variables was defined to measure different dimensions and then organized into a questionnaire. The questionnaire was completed by 40 principals, 123 teachers, 294 parents and 553 students. Although results are not statistically significant, given the small size of the sample, they indicate some of the factors that may account for schools that succeed even when most students are poor. The 8 In each state 20 schools were chosen, 10 at the bottom and 10 at the top of student learning achievement test scores. In the case of Parafba, educational authorities fine tuned the selection, considering state own educational performance criteria. 17 basic assumption underlying the analysis is that once the success factors are identified, they can be replicated in other schools as part of programs such as staff development, teacher training, and community involvement. The variables designed to measure different dimensions of each factor are listed in Chart 1. They were presented in the questionnaire as statements of good practices leading to successful student performance. The respondents were asked to rank each variable according to how much they agree or disagreed with the statement, in a scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Chart 1. Explanatory IFactors and lD)imensions Measuired Qualifications of Tea'chers * The school knows the official curricula Teachers know the content of the curricula they teach Teachers organize the contents well Teachers know what was taught in previous grades on the subjects they teach Teachers clearly define the learning results expected Leahing results are measurable Organization of Time. M-- The teaching process is not disrupted The time allocated for each subject, class and grade is well defined For the most part, teachers are present during school hours Teachers use a pre-defined teaching plan Theoretical and practical elements of the curricula are well integrated There are norms defining times of arrival and departure for teachers and students -Teaching Practices' - The time of students is mainly spent on learning The rhythm of teaching is adequate for the class Emphasis is given to Math and Portuguese Teachers are clear The are links between one class and the next Student curiosity is stimulated Student comprehension is verified Students get feedback for homework and tests Criticisms are constructive, and student self-esteem is stimulated Homework is assigned regularly Homework is regularly completed Homework content is appropriate for the age of the students 2. Qualinfications of Teacheirs All schools visited were located in poor rural areas in two of the poorest states of Brazil. Schools ranking at the bottom and at the top differ significantly with respect to teacher qualifications. The results that indicate teacher qualifications, according to main 18 educational stakeholders, are shown in Tables 1 and 2 for Maranhao and Para('ba, respectively. These tables indicate that stakeholders in Maranhao have a more optimistic view about the performance of teachers than those in Paraiba -- even at schools where students ranked at the bottom. Perceptions of teacher performance are very different among teachers and principals, on one side, and students and parents on the other. Moreover, the schools in which students fail and therefore have a higher probability of being excluded, are mainly characterized, according to students, by having teachers who are not familiar with the materials they teach and who plan their classes poorly. As expected, internal stakeholders, particularly teachers, but also principals, are much more positive about the quality of teachers than external stakeholders, particularly parents9. Apart from the question about whether teachers are familiar with what their students were taught in previous grades, all answers from teachers and principals in Maranhao averaged 4.00 and up, showing a high degree of satisfaction with their own performance and with how the curriculum is organized. On the other hand, the answers from parents and students never averaged higher than 3.0 except in the case of the parents' view on whether or not the results of the learning process are measurable. Parents are particularly negative about the schools in which their children are enrolled. The answers from the students best illustrate the distinction between the "good" and the "bad" schools. Students tend to agree that in the top schools teachers know the curriculum, are familiar with what was taught at the previous grades, and establish clear learning indicators and measurable learning targets. Other results include: > Familiarity with the official curriculum. According to teachers and principals, the schools in Maranhao are ahead of those in Parafba with respect of familiarity of teachers with the official curriculum. In both states however, this familiarity is more often recognized by students in schools at the top than in schools with low achievement test scores. Although the differences between the two types of schools are not striking, still they are consistent when reported by students and sometimes parents. > Qualification of teacher regarding the content of what they teach. In Maranhao, all the other stakeholders except parents, agree that in the top schools, teachers are better qualified with regard to the content of their classes than in the bottom schools. According to students, such a clear difference also occurs in Parafba. > Qualification of teachers to organize teaching practices logically. All stakeholders in Maranhao mention that teachers are more apt to organize teaching 9 In the Escola Vista Por Dentro, Oliviera e Araujo and Schwartzman had already shown in more details and in a much broader context how uncritical of their performance teachers are. According to them, "teachers consider as normal the actions, behaciors, practices and results which are strongly associated with school failure" (2002: 47) 19 in logical sequences at the top schools than at the ones at the bottom. However, in Paraifba, the differences between both types of schools in this regard are not as evident as in Maranhao. > Clear definition of steps and results. Students in Maranhao agree that clarity in teaching and in learning targets are more prevalent in schools at the top than at the bottom. Surprisingly, in Paraiba the difference in this respect between the two types of schools is insignificant. > Measurable results. Teachers in both states but in Maranhao only students point to the importance of having measurable learning results as a distinction between "good" and "bad" schools. Table 8: Qualification of Teachers in the Top and Bottomn lRuraD Schools According to the Main Educational Stakeholdlers in Maranh.%o Principals Teachers Parents Students l.Strongly Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools 5. Strongly agree School knows 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.8 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 official curriculum Teachers know 4.4 4.2 4.5 3.9 1.7 1.8 2.9 2.1 what they teach Contents are 4.6 4.0 4.4 4.2 1.6 1.4 2.2 2 0 organized in sequence _ ___ _ ______ ______ _ ___ Teachers know 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.9 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.1 what was taught in previous year ____ _ ._ Expected results 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.1 1.4 1.5 2.8 2.0 are clearly defined ___ ____ _ Learning results 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.0 1.3 1.2 3.5 2.0 are measurable I 20 Table 9: Qualification of Teachers in the Top and Bottom Rural Schools According to Main Educational Stakeholders - Paraiba Principals Teachers Parents Students L.Strongly Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools School Schools Schools Schools Schools 5.Strongly s agree School knows 1.8 1.8 3.2 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 official curiculum Teachers know 1.8 1.9 3.6 3.6 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.9 what they teach _ ________ Contents are 2.0 1.9 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 organized in sequence ___ __ __ _ __ __ Teachers know 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.7 2.0 what was taught in previous year __ _ __ _ ____ Expected results 1.9 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.0 are clearly defined __ __ Leaning results 1.8 1.8 4.00 3.0 1.3 1.3 2.7 2.6 are measurable 3. Organization of Time Tables 3 and 4 provide results to questions about how time is organized in the visited rural schools. Responses from students in both states and parents in Parafba indicate the existence of some differences on this regard between "good" and "bad" rural schools. They indicate that in schools in Maranhao where students rank at the top, the time dedicated to teaching tends to be less disturbed, the teaching calendar is better structured; teachers seem to follow class plans; in Paraiba, time allocated to theory and practice is well-balanced and in Maranhao rules establishing time of arrival and time of departure from classes and from school are better enforced. In contrast, there are indications from students that in schools where they perform poorly, more frequently than in those where they excel, classes are more frequently disruptions, presence of teachers is more unreliable, classes that are not planned accordingly, and practice and theoretical teaching is not well balanced. Other results include: )0 Class Disruption. Students and teachers in Maranhao suggest that class disruption is an important reason for why students fail in some schools. > Teachers' Attendance. Students in both states think that this is an important distinction between the two kinds of schools. Teacher attendance tends to be less reliable in schools at the bottom than at the top. Teachers in Parafba confirm that unreliable teacher attendance can be a reason leading to educational failure and eventual exclusion. 21 > Planning of the learning process. Teachers in Parai'ba and students in both states agree that it is more common for teachers to plan their classes in schools where students rank at the top than in those where they rank at the bottom of the achievement tests. > Organization of theoretical and practical material. Students in both states and teachers in Parafba agree that the schools where student achievement is higher better balance the practical and theoretical learning content of the curriculum. ¶'able 10: Organizafion of time n MarainhAo Princpals Teachers Parents Students L.Strongly Top Bottom Top Bomtom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools Schools School Schools Schools Schools 5.Strongly agree There is no 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.6 1.6 1.8 2.8 1.8 disruption during classes Time dedicated to 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 each subject is clearly defined _ _ _ __ Teachers are 4.0 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.4 3.2 1.4 present at school most of the time _ _ _ Teachers teach 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 1.9 according to pre- de_ne pln ____- -__ _____ __ -_ __ __ _ Time for practical 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.5 1.5 1.5 2.7 1.4 and theoretical learning is well organized ___- There are norms 43.8 3.7 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.3 for students and teachers about attendance and tardiness _ 22 Table 11: Organization of the Time - Paraiba Principals Teachers Parents Students ILStrongly Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools 5.Strongly agree There is no 3.6 2.0 3.8 3.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 disruption during classes ___ _ _ Time dedicated 3.2 2.2 4.50 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 to each subject is clearly defined __ _______ _ __ _ Teachers are 4.1 2.1 4.45 3.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 present at school most of the time Teachers teach 4.2 2.3 3.97 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 according to pre-defined plans __ ___ ___ _ Timefor 4.2 2.1 4.10 3.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 practical and theoretical learning is well organized ___ ___ _ _._ .__ ___ There are norms 4.1 1.90 4.00 2.80 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.5 for teachers and students about attendance and tardiness 4. Teaching Practices Stakeholders, in special students in Parafba, state differences in teaching practices between schools at the top and at the bottom (Tables 5 and 6). In general, internal stakeholders -- principals and teachers -- continue to have more positive evaluations of the schools than external stakeholders -- parents and students. Very often, they do not provide information that allows for the differentiation between the two types of schools. Parents are the most negative of all stakeholders in both top and bottom schools. Students have clearer views about why they find the environment more conducive to top achievement in some schools and not in others. Students say that the teaching practices in "good" schools seem to be more dedicated, accountable, and responsive. This trend is better verified in Parafba. Student failure leading to educational exclusion, is associated with schools in which learning is not a priority and where the teaching is not adjusted to the needs of students. "Bad" schools in Parafba are also those in which linkages between grades and subjects are missing and classes are not perceived as being connected; in which students receive no feedback about their performance or homework, a clear tendency in Parafba although weaker in Maranhao. 23 Other results include: > Learning Priority. Particularly teachers in Paraiba but only students in Maranhao agree that students perform better in schools where priority time is for learning activities. > Adjustmnent of the rhythm of teaching to the student's needs. Teachers and principals in Paraiba point out that adjusting the rhythm of teaching to the needs of the students occurs more often in top schools than in schools where students perform poorly. However, in Maranhao, this adjustment is not seen as an important feature of the top schools. > Clarity in teaching. For students in Paraiba (and slightly in Maranh Jo), clarity in teaching tends to be more frequently recognized as a characteristic of schools at the top than at the bottom. This helps explain inadequate performance by students and their educational exclusion. > Links between classes. According to all stakeholders in both states, classes are not connected one to the other in schools at the bottom; while classes are viewed as well connected in schools where students perform better. > Curiosity stimulation. In Paraiba, this dimension seems to distinguish between the two types of schools, although parents do not deem it an important discriminating element. In Maranhao, only principals and teachers agree that when there is stimulation of student's curiosity, students tend to succeed. > Feedback to students. In both states, top schools are characterized by a higher degree of responsiveness from teachers towards students. Conversely, bottom schools tend not to give feedback to students. > Regular assignment of homework. According to students, in schools where homework is not regularly required, students tend to fail. 24 Table 12: Teaching Practices - Maranhao Principals Teachers Parents Students ILStrongly Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools 5.Strongly agree Time of students 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 is mainly used to learn __ ___ __ _ Teaching is 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 adjusted to the class _ _ _ __ Math and 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.8 Portuguese receive ro __ Teachers are clear 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 Classes are 4.2 3.6 4.4 4.2 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 connected Curiosity is 4.2 3.8 4.7 4.1 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 stimulated Comprehension is err? 0.6 4.2 4.1 3.6 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.1 verified Students receive 4.0 4.0 4.8 4.2 1.3 1.9 2.6 1.9 feedback on their homework and tests _ _ __ Criticism is 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.2 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.1 positive and self esteem is stimulated Homework 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.1 regularly assigned Homework is 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 regularly completed _ __ ____ _ _ ___ Content and 3.4 3.4 4.4 4.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 frequency of homework is adequate to the student's age 25 Table 3: Teaching IFracftes IPairana Principals Teachers Parents Students L.Strongly Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom Top Bottom disagree Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools Schools 5.Strongly agree Time of students 3.3 3.1 4.0 3.1 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 is mainly used to learn Teaching is 3.9 2.3 4.3 2.3 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 adjusted to the class Math and 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.7 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.8 Portuguese receive priority _ Teachers are clear 3.9 2.8 4.4 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 Classes are 3.6 2.6 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 connected ______ Curiosity is 3.8 2.6 4.7 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 stimulated _ _ _ ___ Comprehension is 4.1 2.6 4.1 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 verified _- Students receive 4.0 2.7 4.7 3.7 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 feedback on their homework and tests Criticism is 4.2 1.1 4.7 3.7 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.3 positive and self esteem is stimulated ___ _ _ Homework 3.6 2.6 4.6 2.6 3.1 3.6 2.2 1.4 reularly assigned____--- Homework is 3.2 2.4 3.8 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.4 regularly _co mp_ _eted __ .___ _.__ Content and 3.2 2.5 4.3 1.8 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.7 frequency of homework is adequate to student's age 5. Conclusions Several findings of this study highlight the exclusionary characteristics of rural schools in the two states. A primary characteristic of the study are uncritical and self-congratulatory teachers and principals. A second are unhappy but voiceless parents. In general, the views of teachers and principals contrast markedly with those of parents and students who tend to have a dim view of the schools. Moreover, educators seem unable to provide information characterizing schools where students are at the top and those where they are at the bottom. 26 In Paral'ba, although educators see their schools in more positive light than do the parents and students, they tend to be much more critical than their Maranhao colleagues. More importantly, educators in rural Paraiba tend to perceive more clearly the distinctions between top and bottom performing schools, particularly with respect to teaching practices and organization of time. It is more difficult for teachers to know what their students were taught in earlier grades than it is for them to be familiar with the curricula they teach, to organize contents and to define and measure the learning results they expect from the students. This difficulty is possibly related to the way the school team operates and to the extent to which teachers evaluate their own performance with respect to actual coverage of the curriculum in each grade. Interestingly, this seems to be a common problem in the better -- as well as the worse -- performing schools. In both states, the characteristic that most distinguishes the qualifications of teachers at the two types of schools, is the extent to which teachers are able to measure the learning results they expect from students: the top schools seem to be able to measure results better. Echoing their poverty, rural parents whose children attend public schools generally see the conditions of these schools as very deficient in Maranhao as well as in Parafba. Independently of whether the school performance ranks at the top or at the bottom in terms of student success, the average response from parents with respect to all aspects analyzed does not exceed level 3 in the 1 to 5 scale. This finding suggests that parents may not be fully aware of the way in which school practices influence student performance. Students are slightly more positive than their parents and certainly more discriminating in their views. Students seem to be able to perceive small but consistent differences in school practices between top- and bottom-performing schools. This feedback may provide helpful insights on the characteristics of the schools in which students fail and are thus more likely to eventually repeat grades and drop out. In Maranhao, for example, students find the qualifications of teachers in the top schools significantly better than in the bottom schools, although in both types of schools their assessment of teachers never exceeds level 3 in the scale. For students in both states, the fact that teachers know the contents of the curricula they teach is an important qualification of teaching, and students find that this is more often true in the top schools than in the worse performing schools, for example, with classes being better connected in schools at the top than at the bottom. On the other hand, Maranhao students differentiate between the better and the worse schools particularly in terms of measuring learning results, while students in Paraiba tend to think that grade content continuity, i.e., the fact that teachers know what was taught in earlier grades, is what best distinguishes the top from the bottom schools Time on task is among the important conditions affecting student learning. Responses in this area are unique in that practically all respondents think time is not as well organized 27 in school as it should be. Although there is a trend pointing to differences in time management between schools at the top and at the bottom, overall schools are not rated well on time allocation. For example, the average student ratings in bottom schools in Paraf'ba on the question that school time is used mainly to learn is 1.9 in schools at the bottom and 2.0 in those at the top. In Maranhao, the difference in student ratings between top and bottom schools is higher (1.6 in those at the bottom and 2.0 at the top); still, results are pitiful in both environments. Maranhao students are clear about teacher attendance and presence during school hours as important factors differentiating good from unsuccessful schools. Students also see clear differences between the two types of schools in matters such as how well the practical and the theoretical aspects of the curriculum are integrated, the use of pre- determined class plans by teachers, and the fact that teaching/learning time is not disrupted. On the other hand, in Paraiba educators give the most importance to this dimension of school performance when comparing good and low performance schools. Principals and teachers in Paraiba consider good time management a distinctive characteristic of good schools, especially when teachers have a pre-defined class plan and there are specific hours for the arrival in school for teachers and students. Bad schools are typically those where teachers don't have a pre-defined plan to teach their classes. As in other dimensions, parents do not see the management of time as an element that distinguishes good from bad schools, because they think time is badly managed in all schools.[iFigures in brackets are student rating spreads between better and worse schools.] Finally, students in both Maranhao and Parafba agree that regular homework assignments and verification that homework was completed distinguishes the better from the worse schools. Maranhao students also find that receiving feedback from teachers on their homework and tests happens more often in good than in bad schools. A linkage between one class and the next is also a distinguishing characteristic of the better schools. 6. Especially Vullnerable Groups: lindigenous and Quilonbo Edueation Brazil is one of the most diverse of all Latin American societies, with descendents of several ethnic groups blending together. Some live in their own self-contained communities: indigenous peoples, Portuguese and Dutch colonizers, European and Asian immigrants, and Africans brought as slaves. This mix has not always been harmonious, and it has produced inequitable and unequal results. Some types of discrimination are pervasive and are reflected in the educational system. This section examines traits of persistent educational exclusion among two of the more vulnerable groups: indigenous peoples and residents of Quilombos. Although the number of students in these groups are not significantly high in quantitative terms, they were included in the study because policy instruments for these groups are expected to be different. It seems that to be effective education policies should consider not only the cultural differences but also other relevant factors that interact with race, such as gender, location, self-classification and self-esteem. 28 (a) Indigenous Peoples The 2000 Census reports the Brazilian indigenous population at about 700,000 individuals. Up to the 1980s, indigenous education had aimed at linguistic and cultural integration of these peoples into a presumed national culture. To a large extent, the ideal since the colonial period has been the establishment of a homogeneous Brazilianism, subsuming into it all cultural characteristics, including indigenous languages. This stance changed with the 1988 Constitution, which moved from considering indigenous peoples as an "almost extinct category" (categoria em vias de extin!fdo) to recognizing them as a differentiated ethnic group, with sub-groups that have their own particular social organization, language, culture, customs, traditions and beliefs (Federal Constitution, Article 231). The 1988 Constitution states that indigenous culture is a Brazilian heritage belonging to all, that it is part of the national identity, and emphasizes that the State has the duty to protect and preserve it. The Constitution guarantees the right of indigenous peoples to a free education that is inter-cultural and, wherever necessary, bilingual.'0 It provides the legal support for the 1996 Education Directives and Basis Law (Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da EducaC&o- LDB), which guarantees to indigenous peoples the type of education defined in the Constitution." The National Education Council (Conselho Nacional de Educagdo - CNE) complemented this legislation by creating the category "indigenous schools," establishing norms and procedures for their operation, as well as defining administrative responsibilities for their management and funding.'2 Indigenous schools are understood as those "schools located in areas inhabited by indigenous peoples, which provide exclusive services to indigenous communities, where teaching is done in the mother language of these communities, with an adequate schooling organization." Starting in 1991, the Ministry of Education and Culture (Ministerio de Educavao e Cultura - MEC) assumed the planning responsibility for indigenous education, together with some special programs that were formerly carried out by the National Foundation of Indigenous Peoples (Funda'do Nacional do fndio -- FUNAI). As with all non- indigenous schools in the country, fundamental level indigenous schools are in principle the responsibility of municipal governments. In practice, many fundamental schools (indigenous and non-indigenous) are run by state governments, which historically share this responsibility with municipalities. Funding for indigenous schools depends on federal transfers that are allocated according to enrollment, through the Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Education and Enhancement of the Teaching Profession (Fundo de Desenvolvimento e Manutenq&o e Valorizafdo do Magist6rio -- FUNDEF). In theory, state governments have the mandate to supervise the implementation of the inter-cultural guidelines and to train indigenous teachers. Transfers from MEC support the states to carry out these responsibilities and to purchase teaching materials. Textbooks and teaching guides are expected to be developed '° Federal Constitution, Article 210. 1 ' In Articles 78 and 79, 2 Resolution 3/99 (Resoluqao 3/99). 29 through a partnership among universities, NGOs, and indigenous organizations. Indigenous schools may also benefit from other federal programs, as FUNDESCOLA and those financing infrastructure, equipment and distance education. Box 1. Who share responsibilities for indigenous peoples education? Federal Government functions are to: (a) plan and monitor; (b) transfer funds to municipalities for operating indigenous schools according to number of students enrolled; (c) transfer funds to state governments for teacher training and development of culturally appropriate teaching guidelines and materials; (d) support construction and rehabilitation, distance education, and equipment, such as computers, TVs and videos through special programs; and (e) promote parental participation and empowerment. State Government functions are to: (a) supervise indigenous education and schools within their boundaries; (b) define a program of multi-cultural education; (c) to produce teaching materials; and (d) promote teacher training. Municipal Government functions include: (a) to create and maintain indigenous schools at the fundamental level; (b) to provide these schools with adequate teachers; and (c) to arrange additional support from federal educational programs. Civil Society Organizations, NGOs and Universities are expected to collaborate with state governments in the design of indigenous teaching materials and guides. l[ndigenous Organizations are expected to: (a) participate with civil society organizations, universities and state govemments in designing teaching guides and materials; (b) participate in decision-making processes at the school level through programs to enhance community and parental involvement financed by MEC. According to the 1999 Census of Indigenous Schools conducted by MEC, there are 1,392 indigenous schools in indigenous lands in Brazil, more than half in the Northern Region where the majority of this population lives. Only 54.4 percent of these indigenous schools are run by municipalities. Not all of these schools have been legally recognized and, according to information from the Census, most of them do not operate according to the law. There are 4,000 teachers in indigenous schools. Among them, those who are indigenous predominate. (There are 76.5 percent who are indigenous to the country and 78.1 percent who are indigenous to the Northeast region). The vast majority of teachers are male (73 percent) and unqualified. Less than a third (28 percent) have completed the fundamental cycle of basic education (grades 1-8); only 4.5 percent have completed lower-secondary education; and a dismal 1.5 percent has a college education. Very few (17 percent) have training in indigenous culture and history. According to the 1999 Indigenous School Census, in almost half of the indigenous schools (46 percent), indigenous culture is not part of the curriculum. Only a third of the indigenous schools use specially designed and culturally adequate teaching materials, and 30 in general there is no connection between what is taught in school and the indigenous tradition of the students. Indigenous schools usually offer only the first four grades of the fundamental cycle. In general, they are multi-grade schools, often with students enrolled in the four grades attending the same classroom, taught by teachers who have not been trained in the pedagogy of how to teach under these difficult circumstances. Among the 75,000 students enrolled in indigenous schools, 90 percent attend the first four grades. Of these, 43 percent are enrolled in first grade, 23 percent in second grade, 15 percent in the third grade, and 9 percent in the fourth grade. The remaining 10 percent are distributed from the fifth to the eighth grade. Few indigenous children go to upper- secondary schools. The number of students attending each higher grade of the fundamental cycle declines, indicating high dropout rates. Qualitative analysis'3 with students and field visits to indigenous schools show that there are two main reasons why indigenous students drop out of school after the fourth grade and do not complete the fundamental cycle. Both reasons are related to the difficult access of public schools.'4 First, schools that offer higher grades are not located in indigenous villages. Because of cultural reasons and fear of prejudice, parents are reluctant to send their children to these outside schools. Second, because indigenous villages are usually located far away from a municipal center, students would need to walk great distances to reach them. In the first four grades, successive grade repetition is the main reason for student dropout. Answers to questionnaires circulated to indigenous schools indicate that repetition is higher among boys than among girls (although the results are not statistically valid). No matter how different students in Quilombos are from other rural students, child/youth labor does not seem to be a major reason for dropout. Few indigenous children work, and those who do are usually girls helping their mothers at home. Lack of interest and apathy associated with the poor quality of the schools seem to be important factors in the repetition/dropout process. With regard to teaching practices, visits to indigenous schools in Pernambuco, Maranhao and Parafba'5 revealed that: (a) playful activities are not part of the teaching process; (b) 3Qualitative field work was conducted to prepare this report in three indigenous schools in the state of Pernambuco. There are eight different indigenous ethnic groups in the state (Atikum, Fulni-6, Kambiwd, Kapinawa, Pankaru, Pipiran, Truka and Xucuru), living in nine municipalities. The students interviewed belong to Fulni-6 group, the only group in the state that kept its original language, the Yathe, although they also speak Portuguese. 14 On the relationship of spatial location and fairness see Bigman and Diechmann (2000) 15 Several indigenous and quilombo schools were visited to prepare this report. In the schools visited, a total of 850 indigenous students were enrolled, and were being taught by 26 teachers (33 student-teacher ratio). Only two of them were indigenous. These findings were all confirmed by a supervision report based on field visits by staff of the Secretary of Education (Secretaria de Educaqao) of Pernambuco to all indigenous schools in the state. 31 the teaching approach emphasizes memorization of information rather than teaching students to think; (c) bilingual education is totally missing; (d) there are not enough textbooks for all students; (e) the curriculum misrepresents indigenous organizations and traditions; and (f) the academic performance of the students is poor. These visits found the schools dark, without electricity, without running water, and without latrines. To go to the bathroom, students had to go home where they could wash their hands or simply use bushes around the school. Although the quality of the school food was good, there were not enough meals for all students, and the food service was irregular rather than daily. Compounding these shortcomings, there were several irregularities in the institutional relations between the schools and the state government, with neither complying with their legally prescribed educational responsibilities. Under these conditions, it is not surprising to find that a majority of indigenous children are excluded from the public education opportunities that theoretically should be accessible to all. For example, in all 3 schools located in the Fulni-6 village, only grades 1-4 are offered. All schools are dark and dirty, and lack bathrooms or running water. To attend upper grades, the students have to go outside their communities and enroll in schools where indigenous and non-indigenous students join the same classroom and few teachers are indigenous. Indigenous students call these "schools of the whites," meaning a school that doesn't belong to them. Box 2 illustrates the poor interaction between indigenous and non-indigenous students sharing a classroom. The phrases quoted are taken from written answers to the questionnaires completed by the students. Box 2: Perceptions of lndigenous Students About IHlow They Are Viewed By Non- lIndigenous Students "My classmates - not all but some - keep saying that the indigenous are lazy and boring and this and that" (girl). 'They (white students) never want us to participate in collective tasks at school because they say that the indigenous don't know how to speak and when they speak, they don't speak correctly" (girl). 'They say that the indigenous are ignorant and should not study in the same school as whites. But no prejudice will make me deny my origins" (girl). (b) Quilombos The Quilombos are groups of slave descendents who have lived together for centuries in small rural localities, keeping strong community ties. In the 17th century, when the first Quilombos were formed, the term referred to groups of fugitives who resisted slavery. The most famous of all Quilombos, Palmares, dates from 1604 and comprised small 32 villages scattered in what is today the territory of Alagoas and Pernambuco states. Palmares resisted the Portuguese and Dutch colonizes for almost 100 years. Experts estimate that there are approximately 743 Quilombos in Brazil, spread over the states of Amazonas, Maranhao, Sergipe, Bahia, Pernambuco, Mato Grosso, Sao Paulo, Goi6s and Minas Gerais. However, only 42 are officially recognized. The relevant legislation recognizes the cultural, economic and historic rights of Quilombo peoples, but access to land title is still the exception rather than the rule. Although the 1988 Constitution guarantees Quilombo rights, it was not until 1998 that an inter-ministerial group was formed with the tasks of identifying Quilombo settlements, recognizing their legal rights, and formulating policies aimed at making these rights a reality among these African descendants. Field visits and qualitative questionnaires filled by Quilombo students in Pernambuco, Parai'ba and Maranhao revealed a particular worrisome situation among the young people. Responding to the questionnaire were youngsters between the ages of 12 and 24, but all of them were enrolled in the 8'h grade. Clearly, the age-grade gap among Quilombo students is wider than in the student population as a whole, reaching 10 years or more in the case of 24 year-old students. As seen in Chapter 1I, grade repetition is the initial step of a process that ends in dropout from the school system; thus, the chances of being excluded from education among Quilombo children and youth is higher than in the general population. Based on these data, three factors explain the observed age distortion. First, children living in Quilombos enter school later than the officially prescribed 7-year-old age. Second, half the enrolled students repeat grades, and up to three repetitions of the same grade is not uncommon. Third, some of the students tend to drop out temporarily from school. This behavior is seen among girls and boys, but in the case of boys it is more frequent and tends to extend over a longer period of time. Some boys stay away as long as 7 years before returning to school. The reasons girls give for temporarily dropping out of school center around school-based factors such as "there is no place in the school" or "the school is too far from home." Boys systematically justify their temporary absences from school in terms of work, saying: "I had to survive" or "I had to help my family." Quilombo schools and students present some, but not all, of the same features of indigenous: Schools located in quilombo villages offer only the first four years of the fundamental cycle. To enroll in the final grades, students need to walk, sometimes several miles, to the nearest municipal center. Most of them do not attend the final grades of the fundamental cycle. / Schools are impoverished. Physical conditions of schools are appalling: they lack electricity, latrines, and running water. School meals often do not reach them. One of the schools visited (Quilombo do Castainho, in Pernambuco) is located in a small church because parents think that the "official" school is located in a 33 dangerous area. In fact, parents mentioned that landowners had tried to poison the water system in that "official" school." The school located at the church is not official and for this reason it is not funded by FUNDEF. Another school, also not official, is located in a yucca flour processing plant (casa de farinha) in order to facilitate the work of the children. Ironically, this is also the location of the official program to eradicate child labor. / Schools are multigrade, and their teachers lack training in this methodology. $ Different from indigenous children/youth, almost all quilombo students work some of the time, both boys and girls. / Successive grade repetitions are associated with child labor, distance between home and school, and poor quality of teaching. Grade repetition and dropout are associated with the same factors. v Quilombo students are similar to indigenous students in that they both feel that they suffer discrimination by "whites." A girl student from a quilombo says: "We are very discriminated against by the whites." On the other hand, and maybe precisely because of the similarity of experience, indigenous and quilombo students disagreed about who suffers more discrimination. In some cases, they minimize the discrimination against the other group as a way of underscoring their own. "The indigenous have suffered from discrimination but not as much as the blacks" (Quilombo boy); "Blacks have already been able to win a place in society, much more than the indigenous. For example, there are already black judges and lawyers. If there are any indigenous in these professions, they are very few" (Indigenous girl). Conclusions In the case of the indigenous and quilombo populations, educational exclusion seems to be based less on the socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals, although they are very poor, and more on the characteristics of the group. For these individuals, the main problem it is not so much that the quality of schools is inadequate or the fact that teachers need training. The problem is that schools are barely there. The reasons why there are no schools appear to be lack of institutional capacity on the part of the educational system to deal with groups that are constantly reaffirming their specific identities, ancestral rights and unbreakable pride. Mainly, exclusion derives from the inability of the public sector to listen to a different voice and to speak on their behalf. Few in Brazil have heard about quilombos. Few think of education in connection with indigenous peoples. 34 IV. Education of Young Adults16 .1. Introduction This chapter addresses the special education needs of young adults between the ages of 18-25, a group that warrants special attention for several reasons. They are already autonomous adults, have developed their emotional, mental and physical capacities, are no longer dependents and -- if they choose to continue studying -- often have to combine school with work and family responsibilities. While it is difficult to generalize about young adults in Brazil, given the diversity of the Brazilian population and its vast economic disparities, sub-groups can be identified for whom differentiated education strategies are required. The main problems faced by young adults today are related to their economic, demographic, and educational conditions. On the economic front, young adults from poor families, whether rural or urban, traditionally assume family responsibilities early in life, and their education opportunities are limited by premature entry in the labor market. In the labor market they find precarious jobs, low wages, higher unemployment rates and higher job turnover compared to other workers.17 Demographically, the scale of the problem is huge. In 2000, there were 34 million people in Brazil aged 15-24. This group represents 20.1 percent of the total population, and their absolute number has increased substantially compared to previous decades. At that time 52.6 percent of them were between the ages of 15 and 19 years old. The education level of a large proportion of young adults is quite low. While illiteracy has markedly declined for the 14-20 age group, those aged 20-24 still have approximately 6% percent illiteracy rate (2000). This means that around 1 million young adults today are illiterate.18 As a result, a large part of this group faces the dual difficulty of unstable labor market conditions and very low educational levels. Considering the progress made towards universalization of elementary education in Brazil nowadays this generation is probably the last one of "illiterates" or semi-illiterates in Brazil in the future. 2. Objectives of the Study The study examines the education and labor market situation of young adults between the ages of 18 and 25 with the aim of raising awareness regarding their education needs. Special attention is given to young adults in the states of Maranhao, Paraiba, Pemambuco and Rio de Janeiro. Section 2 reviews public education policies relevant to this age group. Section 3 discusses the association between education and labor market experience. Section 4 analyzes education conditions in Brazil and in the states of Maranhao, Parafba, Pernambuco and 16 This chapter is based on a PNDP report prepared by Bernardo Kipnis, Luiza Carvalho and Sergei Soares, entitled " A Escola e os Jovens de 18 a 25 Anos." Brasfilia, May, 2002. 17 See, Letelier (1999); Jacinto (1998); and Pochmann 18 IBGE (2001). 35 Rio de Janeiro. Section 5 presents the main conclusions and some policy recommendations. 3. Evolution of Public Policy School failure and dropout affecting several age groups are not new in Brazil. They are problems that have persisted for several decades. Historically, public education policy has given priority to educating children who are 7-14 years old, primarily at the fundamental cycle of basic education level. In this context, those who for a number of reasons have not followed the regular schooling process occupy a marginal position in the policy agenda of the education sector. Basically, the education of the group aged 18 to 25 has been neglected during the 20th century, and only recently has more attention been given to them, particularly by employers concerned with labor productivity. (a) IPublic Education Policies In Brazil, education of youths and adults (Educaqdo de Jovens e Adultos -- EJA) began during the early industrialization period of the 1940s with the creation of literacy programs for people 15 years or older.'9 In the 1960s, the Brazilian Literacy Movement (Movimento Brasileiro de A1fabetizaqdo -- MOBRAL) was created as a centralized public program operating through municipal committees not connected to the regular education system. The 1988 Constitution changed the policy focus by affirming the right to fundamental free education for all -- including those marginalized from the regular schooling system. The concept of literacy was then replaced by the ideal of raising the level of education of all citizens. However, a strategy to pursue this goal did not emerge. MOBRAL was abolished in 1985 and replaced by the Educate Foundation (Fundaado Educar) that financed education initiatives by state government, enterprises and private organizations, rather than directly providing services. This Foundation was abolished in 1990, and a decision was made to decentralize the supplemental education program to the municipalities. No tangible results emerged from that decision. In 1996, the Education Directives and Basis Law (Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educaado -- LDB ) abolished a separate public supplemental education system and reduced the minimum age for presentation of final supplemental exams.20 The argument behind this decision was that supplemental education should be part of the basic education system. In response, the basic education system started to introduce "acceleration classes" to address the problem of large age-grade gaps among enrolled classes. However, during the 1990s, the federal government's major financial initiative was the Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Education and Enhancement of the Teaching '9 Haddad (2000). 20 The "supplemental exam" is a term used to define an exam that can be taken by anyone who is not enrolled in school. It is an exam equivalent to the final exam of a given education cycle. Passing this exam entitles the person to receive a certificate of course completion for the respective educational cycle. In 1996, the maximum ages for exam presentation were reduced to 15 (in the case of the fundamental cycle), and to 18 (in the case of the lower-secondary cycle). 36 Profession (Fundo de Devesenvolvimento e Manutenqfo e Valoriza.do do Magisterio -- FUNDEF), which allocates funds according to enrollment. The regulations of the Fund exclude from its funding-allocation formula all who are not enrolled in school, even though municipalities and states provide supplemental education services outside the schools. The reason given for the exclusion of the out-of-school students was the difficulty of reliably accounting for them. Thus, the education programs aimed at this group continued to be limited to local initiatives and available local resources. In the late 1990s, some concrete public programs emerged to address the problem of education of young adults. In 1997, the federal government created the Solidarity Literacy Program (Programa Alfabetiza(!do Soliddria) to reduce illiteracy, particularly in the poorest municipalities. In four years of operation, approximately 2.4 million young adults benefited from this program. As a complementary initiative, the Ministry of Education (MEC) launched the Education Support Program for Youth and Adults in Fundamental Education, also known as "RESTART PROGRAM" (Programa de Apoio a Educafao de Jovens e Adultos no Ensino Fundamental -- Programa Recome!o). RESTART transfers funds to states and municipalities with a low Human Development Index (indice de Desenvolvimento Humano -- IDH;)21 to expand public school enrollments for grades 1-8 to accommodate young adults. The majority of the municipalities participating in this program are located in 14 states of the North and Northeast Regions. Given the recent creation of RESTART, there are no evaluations of its operations or impact. Besides government programs, the private sector also plays a role. The National Industrial Confederation (ConfederaCdo Nacional da Industria -- CNI), through its Industrial Social Service (ServiCo Social da Industria -- SESI) runs a Worker Education Program (Programa Educaq&o do Trabalhador) in all states, aimed at raising the education level of workers. In 2001, this service reported more than one million enrollment at all levels of basic education. (b) International Commitments International support for the education of young adults began with the World Declaration of Education for All, approved by 150 countries in Thailand in 1990. Following that, the UNESCO V International Conference for the Education of Adults, in Hamburg in 1997, declared young adult education to be an intrinsic part of the life-long learning process. The conference stated that it should be accessible to all, rather than considered a compensatory or supplemental function of the state. The latest international development in this field took place at the World Education Forum, in Dakar in 2000, where specific targets were approved to achieve the goals of education for all by the year 2015. These international resolutions impacted on the Brazilian National Education Plan published in 2001. 21 UNDP, Human Development Report (1998). 37 (c) Recent Tirends Questions arise as to the appropriate profile of today's workers as the number of higher technology and knowledge-intensive firms increases. It can be argued that the worker profile in firms operating at low technological levels will remain for some time at the old "Taylor's Production Model," in which workers perform repetitive manual operations disconnected from the "thinking part" of production.22 Nevertheless, an increasing number of jobs now require abilities of abstract thought, experimentation, and teamwork. The capacities needed by workers in this new environment are the object of active debate. 23 Although high technology is not the predominant mode of production in Brazil today, the fact that it exists invites reflection on the part of policymakers regarding the education of young Brazilian adults. The main problem for a large proportion of this group continues to be school failure, frequent grade repetition, large age-grade gaps, and ultimately school dropout before completion of the basic education cycle. Public education policy has made tentative steps towards re-introducing this group in schools, hoping they will complete basic education. But such programs as "accelerated classes" are more appropriate for students with relatively small age-grade gaps of two years or less. Beyond that, and for youths who dropped out of school, public interventions are scarce. The transfer of the education of young adults to sub-national governments represents a heavy burden on the institutional capacity of states and municipalities, and the problem tends to become more intractable the older young adults become. 4. Education and the Labor Market The interaction between education and labor market performance is the object of much academic and public controversy. While most agree that higher levels of education are associated with higher salaries, there is no agreement as to the underlying causes of this relationship. This section does not intend to resolve the controversy, but simply to present the available data on education and labor market performance for the age group object of the analysis. 22 Tedesco (1998). 23 The 1997 UNESCO Conference associates life-long learning with four basic competencies: learn to learn, learn to be, learn to do, and learn to relate. The US Department of Labor (2000) identifies the worker competencies required for obtaining a job in today's market and perform efficiently, as resourcefulness; good interpersonal relations; access to information; and familiarity with systems and technology. In order to command these competencies, a worker needs to be able to read and understand what he reads, and the capacity to interpret the information. The workers also need to know basic mathematics and how to use computers, as well as the ability to work in a team. For similar research carried out in France, see Lalive d tEpinay, Christian. Significations et valeurs du travail, de la societe industrielle a nous jours. In: De Coster, Michel et Pichault, Fran,ois. Traitd de Sociologie du Travail. Bruxelles, De Boeck Universite, (1994). For a debate on the issue of technological changes see also Sennett, Richard. A corrosao do carater. Consequiencias pessoais do trabalho no novo capitalismo. Rio de Janeiro/Sao Paulo, Record, 1999 38 (a) Employment Trends Although labor market participation takes on many different forms, the generalized term "employment" is used here to convey all forms of participation (self-employed, employer, employee). Employment rates, which record the number of occupied people in a given age group over the total number in that group, are quite different for men and women. Table I presents these rates for Brazil for 1981 and 1999 and gives absolute numbers of workers as a measure of the magnitude in the various categories.24 These data highlight three specific trends. First, there has been a relative decline in the employment rates for young adults during the last decade. Second, higher levels of formal education helped protect individuals from such decline. And third, employment rates were reduced more for men than for women. In the 1981-1999 period, the employment rate for uneducated men aged 18-25 years dropped by about 11 percent, possibly indicating that this group is staying longer in school. For those aged 26-35 however, the observed lower employment rates simply indicate more difficult labor market conditions for uneducated men. Table 14 - Brazil: Employment Rates by Gender, Age Group and Level of Education, 1981 and 1999 (in percentages) Age: 18-25 years 26-35 years Men Women Men Women 1981: Less than lower-secondary 83 35 94 32 Complete lower-secondary 76 58 95 60 More than lower-secondary 62 58 94 77 Absolute Number ('000): 13,156 9,501 8,103,722 8,330,871 1999: Less than lower-secondary 72 37 88 44 Complete lower-secondary 72 56 90 65 More than lower-secondary 64 59 93 82 Absolute Number ('000): 13,156 13, 188 12,970,347 13,529,681 Source: PNAD. Note: Absolute numbers are from the 1980 and 2000 Demographic Censuses and give an order of magnitude of the trends described. In the case of women, employment and education increased significantly for both age groups. Women's employment is much higher for the better educated than for the uneducated, and this trend did not change much over the last 20 years. Cultural values related to women's work combined with higher demand by firms for educated women are 24 1981 was selected as indicative of the "lost decade" in Brazil's economic development process, and 1999 is the lastest year for which information is available. The data used in this section is provided by the National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional porAmostra de Domicilios - PNAD) which covers the entire country, except for the rural areas in the Northern Region. 39 reflected in these data. It should also be noted that employment rates for men are not as strongly dependent on level of education as they are for women. (b) lFormal Emnploymiient Tlrends The second important dimension of labor market participation is whether or not one's job is a "formal" job, affording relative protection against risk. Based on the labor legislation, "formal" jobs pay at least the minimum wage and also entitle workers to termination grants if they are fired. This protection, along with others established by law, is referred in this section as the rate of employment formalization.25 The rate of job formalization varies with education level but not much by gender (Table 2) . Table 2 shows that employment forrnalization declined for all types of young adult workers during the 1981-1999 period. This trend is fairly consistent for men and women in different age groups and levels of education. There is, however, an interesting new aspect related to the education. In the 1980s, having completed basic education tended to ensure a formal job. By 1999, the probability of finding such a job became much smaller. For women, for example, the 1999 reduction in formality rates at this level of education exceeds 20 percent, compared to 1981. Table 15 - Brazil: EmpRoyment Formarlzation by GGender, Age and Education Level, 1981-1999 (in percentages) 18 a 25 years 26 a 35 years Men Women Men Women 1981 Less than lower-secondary 50 50 48 45 Complete lower-secondary 82 88 75 87 More than lower-secondary 78 84 76 88 1999 Less than lower-secondary 39 36 42 37 Complete lower-secondary 68 65 61 64 More than lower-secondary 58 66 59 72 Source: PNAD. (c) Labor Eairnings Descriptive statistics (Table 3) show labor earnings by age and education levels, measuring earnings in terms of average monthly pay, and by the lowest and highest percentiles (90%, or higher earnings than 90 percent of the rest of the group; and 10% or lower earnings than those of 90 percent of the group). 25 In practical terms, a formal job means to have one's worker identification card signed by the employer (carteira assinada). 40 Table 16 - Labor Earnings by Gender, Age and Education Level, 1999 Ages 18- 25: Average Earnings Highest Average Lowest Average (90 percentile) (10 percentile) Men Women Men Women Men Women Less than lower-secondary 244 184 460 320 48 50 Complete lower-secondary 433 313 800 544 136 136 More than lower-secondary 775 589 1600 1100 148 150 Table 3 (continued) Average Earnings Highest Average Lowest Average (90 percentile) (10 percentile) Men Women Men Women Men Women Ages 26-35: Less than lower-secondary 384 225 700 400 110 20 Complete lower-secondary 773 451 1500 900 240 136 More than lower-secondary 1577 1034 3100 2000 400 266 Source: PNAD. Sample figures. Not surprisingly, these data indicate a strong association between education level and earnings, which tends to increase with age. Also, the education-earnings differential for women tends to be larger than that for men, particularly among the older group. In 1999, the average earnings for those who completed basic education (lower-secondary cycle) equa]ed the minimum wage at the time. Those with less education did not earn enough to cover their basic living expenses. Thus, it seems that a basic education diploma has become a condition for avoiding extreme poverty. Figures I and 2 show earnings differentials in graphic form. Figure 1 - Average Earnings for Men by Age and Education Level, 1981-1999 10,000 -o- Menos que Secundtno em 1981 -o- Secundkno em 1981 Mais que Secundano em 1981 e-Menos que Secundaro em 1999 - Secundbno em 1999 A Mais que Secunddrio em 1999 2 1,000 100 Wlade 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 41 For men, earnings levels are lower in 1999 compared to 1981 and the least educated men suffered the most from the drop in labor earnings during that period. Women, on the other hand, seem to have been less affected than men by lower salaries, and for the best- educated women salaries did not change significantly. MFgure 2 - Average Ernmings fofr Women by Age and Educagoimn Level, 1981-1999 10,000 - Menos que Secunddno em 1981 ----SecundAno em 1981 -& Mais que Secundino em 1981 -o- SecundAdo em 1999 -fŽ.-Mals que Secundario em 1999 -0 Menos que SecundArno em 1999 CT 1,000 idade 100 1 5 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 To summarize: It is clear from the data presented that labor earnings increase with levels of formal education for both men and women. Differences between education levels can be significant, as, for example, earnings twice as high for those who complete basic education compared to those below that level. Also, having completed basic education seems to function as a shelter against earning less than a living wage. S. Educeaton Levels The levels of schooling of the 18-25 age group in 1999 (Table 4), indicate that the majority (68 percent) has already left school, but one-third is still studying. Among those in school (32% ), 11% are enrolled in the fundamental cycle (grades 1-8) and are experiencing large age-grade gaps. This particular group is especially disadvantaged. Equally disturbing is the fact that among the two-thirds ( 68%) of young adults out of 42 school),46% left school before completing basic education -- approximately 12 million people. What are the policy answers to this problem? Table 17 - Levels of Schooling for the 18-25 age group, 1999 Education Level Percentages 1. In School 32 Fundamental (grades 1-8) 1 1 Lower-Secondary (grades 9-1 1) 21 2. Out of School 68 Incomplete Lower-Secondary 46 Complete Lower-Secondary 22 Total 100 Number ('000): 26,344 Source: PNAD. Absolute numbers from the 2000 Census. Figure 3 - Young Adults Aged 18-25 by Levels of Education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%. ~~~~~~~~-a.-- No E 60% i > Pdrimrio 50% No 40% .. Secunddric Secunddrio 20016 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ --Sem 10% . ~~~~~~~~~~~~Secunddrio 0% 15 20 25 Idade The main public education programs that address the problem are of two types. First, for those still in school, "accelerated classes" in regular schools can help compensate for the age-grade gap and lead to faster completion of the basic education cycle. Second, for those out of school, supplementary education programs in schools or elsewhere can help raise their education level. However, the success of these programs will depend on a strong policy commitment to increase quality and availability of education, and to make program adjustments that best fit the specific circumstances of young adults. Figure 4 shows that relatively few young adults (22 percent) do not need specific education interventions, as they have completed the basic education cycle and can obtain additional training on their own. 43 Almost one-third (32 percent) is still in school trying to complete basic education, although with increasingly wider age-grade gaps. For this group, improvements in education quality and "accelerated classes" would be especially beneficial. Little can be suggested to improve the plight of those still enrolled in the fundamental cycle (11 percent) except to suggest improvements in teacher training, particularly in rural areas. Those who dropped out of school before completing basic education most likely see their educational careers as finished, and have taken on new family and work responsibilities. Even in this case, however, supplemental education programs can be adjusted to help young adults overcome labor market disadvantages and family problems by providing additional job training and child care services. Table 5 disaggregates levels of schooling by gender, color, household position, employment status, and state of residency for the 18-25 age group. Table 18 - lDiistribution of Young Adults i$-25 Years Old by LeveR of Schooling, Gender, Color, Househogd Position, Employment Status and State of IResidence (in Percentages) In School Out of School Complete Incomplete Basic Basic Grades 1-8 Grades 9-1 1 Education Education All 11 21 22 46 Men 12 19 20 49 Women 10 22 24 43 Whites 8 25 26 40 Blacks 13 16 28 52 Head of Household or Spouse 4 7 22 68 Other 13 27 23 37 Employed 13 26 18 43 Not Employed 9 18 25 48 Ceard 15 18 18 50 Paraiba 17 19 15 49 Pernambuco 14 17 20 50 Rio de Janeiro 8 24 25 43 Source: PNAD. The above data show that young adult women tend to be better educated than men, and whites of both genders fare better than blacks. Most unemployed young adults are no longer in school. The employed tend to be out of school without complete basic education. Almost 90 percent of those out of school are married or heads of households. Rio de Janeiro has the highest proportion of young adults with complete basic education and in school, compared to the Northeast states. The percentage of young adults out of school with complete basic education is higher in Rio de Janeiro than in Brazil. 44 The National School Census gives better information on the schooling pattern of young adults than the PNAD, and allows for finer desegregation of the data, as presented in Table 6.26 Table 19 - Students Aged 18 to 24 years by Education Level for Brazil and Selected States - 2000 (in thousand of students) Brazil Maranhao Paraiba Pernambuco Rio de Janeiro Grades 1-4 445 48 31 18 8 Grades 5-8 1,802 94 66 139 91 Grades 9-11 3,892 122 68 197 328 EJA* 1,198 33 25 53 103 Total 7,338 297 190 408 530 (in percentages) Grades 1-4 6% 16% 16% 4% 2% Grades 5-8 25% 32% 35% 34% 17% Grades 9-11 53% 41% 36% 48% 62% EJA* 16% 11% 13% 13% 19% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: National School Census 2000 (*) Youth and Adult Education Most young adult students are enrolled in the regular lower-secondary cycle. Depending on the state, however, as many as 19 percent are enrolled in EJA. Maranhao and Paraiba are the states with the highest percentage of young adults still enrolled in the fundamental cycle (grades 1-8). The qualification of teachers is a good indicator of the quality of education provided at school. Although Brazil still has a number of schoolteachers who have not completed basic education,27 the most significant differences emerge from comparing teachers who do have with those who do not have at least a few years of higher education. Table 7 shows the percentage of students aged 18-25 who are taught by teachers who have attended college, whether or not they obtained a college degree or a teaching certificate. The general trend in the country and in the selected states is for the majority of students to be taught by teachers with some years of higher education. However, EJA students tend to have less educated teachers, particularly those enrolled in the fundamental cycle. In Maranhao, the first 8 grades of basic education are preponderantly taught by poorly educated teachers. Rio de Janeiro is privileged in that almost all teachers have higher 26 The National School Census does not disaggregate behond age 24, so the oldest among the group object of this study cannot be analyzed, but it is fair to assume that their inclusion would not substantially change the overall picture. 27 Teachers with incomplete basic education tend to teach grades 1-4, particularly in rural areas. Because 16 percent of the young adults in Maranhao and Paraiba are enrolled in these grades, they probably receive instruction from poorly prepared teachers. 45 education. With the exception of Maranhao, these figures suggest that the problem of teacher qualification is no longer a major one in Brazil and that in-service training for teachers is a higher priority compared to pre-service training. Table 20 - Percentage of Students whos are Taught by Teeachers with lHigher Education28 (in Percentages) Brazil Maranhao Paraiba Pernambuco Rio de Janeiro Fundamental Cycle 60 18 78 90 83 Lower-Secondary 88 81 86 96 98 Normal Schools 84 60 94 94 92 EJA (Fundamental) 75 27 76 91 87 EJA (Lower-Secondary) 91 74 88 96 97 Source: National School Census 2000. 6. Conclusions Education for young adults in Brazil was never a priority for policymakers until the late 1990s when the issue started to gain attention in the public sector as well as in civil society, and several important public programs were launched. Employment data show that a good education is increasingly more necessary to avoid adverse labor market experiences. Although one wants to believe that ensuring continuing education for those who left school early is a valid goal for society at large, much remains to be done. Basic education has not protected young men from facing increasing difficulties in the labor market in the late 1990s. For women, the relevant evidence is that their labor market participation is highly dependent upon their level of education. In general, young adults now have less access to formal jobs than they did in the early 1980s. Their earnings have declined, and a basic education level barely assures a living wage. Workers with lower education levels are destined to be poor. More than two-thirds of the young adults in Brazil today are out of school, and approximately half of them have not completed basic education. Their employment prospects are indeed bleak. Most of these uneducated young adults are already household heads and spouses, and their low education levels may lower the development prospects of their children. Young adults still studying tend not take advantage of EJA programs, as the majority is enrolled in regular basic education classes. For those in school, most have the advantage of being taught by educated teachers -- except in the case of Maranhao where teachers' qualifications are significantly lower than the national average. 28 Because the National School Census characterizes teachers by school and grade and not by classroom, one has to assume that all students attend an "average" classroom within their grade. 46 Notwithstanding the prospects of life-long learning, education that takes place before a generation enters the labor market tends to be more productive. But the need to address the education problem faced by young adults today cannot be denied. With the objective of contributing to the development of strategies to help this group, the following policy suggestions are made: O Young adults are a heterogeneous clientele for the education sector. To be successful, continuing educational programs have to be offered in a number of different modalities, including distance education, accelerated classes, external certification, and modular courses if they are to be appropriate to the circumstances of each group. e Because several programs already exist that successfully address the education needs of young adults, the priority now is to expand access to these programs, improve their quality, improve coordination among them, and promote collaboration among the various levels of government and the private sector so these program complement each other more effectively. O There is no clear explanation for why a majority of young adults who are in school are enrolled in regular basic education courses rather than EJA. The age- grade gap is so large that school-based measures to help them are likely to fail. Most probably, they choose this option because EJA programs are not as widely available, and their quality tends to be inferior to that of regular education programs. Therefore, one would expect that by expanding EJA and improving its quality the burden posed by large age-grade gaps in regular schools would be reduced and programs would give young adults a better chance to complete the basic education cycle faster. * With regard to teachers, monitoring the quality of pre-service training is necessary, along with adequate in-service training specifically designed to address the needs of young adults. Equally important, is the need to adopt special measures to raise the level of education of teachers who are now working without the adequate qualifications, particularly in rural areas. * Among the various factors that contribute to school dropout, low-quality schools, early marriage, procreation and work are significant. Returning to school will always be difficult for this group, unless education programs also offer childcare and job training. 47 V. Assessing the limpact of SchooR Autonomy ModeRs on Thrncreasing EfIII?eEency and Quality of Education and Minimizzing Education Exclusion 1. Introduction The main objective of this chapter is to continue to enrich the policy dialogue with the current and subsequent Administrations in selected states, as well as with the federal government. This will be possible through identifying and filling knowledge gaps in the ongoing school autonomy programs of Rio de Janeiro (Southeast Region) and Pernambuco (Northeast Region). Furthermore, this chapter will assess to what extent school autonomy strategies can support improvements in school outcomes, facilitate the organization of a better school environment, and minimize education exclusion. In the last decade, the adoption of school autonomy strategies has been a trend in the education systems in Brazil. Besides being part of the political aspiration for democracy, participation of parents and the community in the definition and implementation of school objectives and plans is seen as an essential part of the strategy to increase the quality of education. To support this movement, a wide variety of strategies have been put to use by different states. This analysis is based on a desk review of the more relevant school autonomy models being developed in Brazil. This was complemented by field visits to Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro where questionnaires were distributed and interviews were conducted with school principals, teachers, teacher unions, students, and parents. The analysis also draws on lessons learned from national and international experiences. The states selected exemplify school autonomy initiatives at different stages of implementation.29 2. B3ackground of the SchooR Autonomy Movement in BiraziR The school autonomy issue emerged in Brazil as part of the democratization process and began gaining ground at the end of the 1980s and throughout the 1990s. The debate heightened during the preparation of the 1988 Federal Constitution, and again during the preparation of the 1996 National Education Law -- LDB.30 These two laws were 29 This chapter summarizes the findings of a background paper entitled "Autonomia Escolar no Brasil: Visao Geral e em Estados Selecionados - Pernambuco e Rio de Janeiro," by Maria Aglae de Medeiros Machado. May 2000 (forthcoming as a World Bank Working Paper). See also, Galheigo, Ana. "Autonomia Escolar no Estado de Pemambuco: Resultado dos Grupos Focais." May, 2002. Neves, Carmen Moreira de Castro. "Autonomia da Escola Publica: um enfoque operacional." In: Veiga, Ilma Passos Alencastro. Projeto polftico-pedag6gico da escola: uma construcao possivel. Campinas: Papirus, 1995. 192 p. Reformas Educacionais e Autonomia das Escolas: os casos de Nova Iorque, do Chile e do Estado de Minas Gerais. [s.l.]: Banco Mundial, 1999. 95 p. Rio de Janeiro. Secretaria de Educacao. Autonomia da escola com availiacao externa. [s.l.]. 1997 (mimeo). 30 The National Education Law- LDB ( Law 9,394 of 1996). Articles 24, 26 and 36 of the LDB supports the establishment of school autonomy programs in public schools. 48 fundamental to support school autonomy programs in Brazilian public schools. The issue continued to be debated during the preparation of the 10-Year Plan for Education for All -- Plano Decenal de Educa(do para Todos -- and the National Education Plan -- Plano Nacional de Educa!do. 31 As in many countries, school autonomy became an issue in Brazil in the context of state reform and decentralization starting in the early 1980s. The initial debate was led by opposition parties and by several social groups that supported decentralization and democratization and longed to ban the authoritarian regimen in the country. At first, the movement centered on the struggle for greater freedom for teachers and school principals, and for greater freedom for schools vis-a-vis the central administrative units of the education system. In a second stage, school autonomy became seen as a means to carry out teaching improvement in schools (Abreu, 1997). Today, the movement focuses on strategies to improve schooling results for students as well as to improve the quality of education that is expected to minimize education exclusion. The leading concept in the school autonomy movement was the delegation of more power and authority to schools. As a consequence of such delegation, the organization of schools would change in the direction of more equality and participation -- one of the central elements of democracy (Torres, 2000). At the state level, the state of Minas Gerais pioneered school autonomy in 1980s. At the federal level, programs were established to support school autonomy, such as the Direct Money to Schools Program (Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola, PDDE), and the School Improvement Program -- (Programa do Fundo de Fortalecimento da Escola, FUNDESCOLA). The National Council for the State Secretaries of Education (CONSED) also launched relevant programs with the same objective, including the National School Management Award, and the School Principal Distance Management Training Program (Programa de CapacitaVao a Distancia para Gestores Escolares, PROGESTAO). Besides Minas Gerais, several other states made significant efforts to implement school autonomy strategies. Parana (in the South) and Ceara (in the Northeast) are examples of states that have made significant advances. Parana used a comprehensive set of programs to improve school outcomes and to strengthen school autonomy, and it adopted innovative mechanisms to transfer funds to schools. Ceard emphasized mechanisms to improve school accountability, such as school leadership exercised by a school management team together with the community and School Plans combined with incentives for schools and for individual teachers and students. Presently, in Ceara, School Plans and school improvement commitments are published on an Internet site and can be monitored by internal and external stakeholders.32 31 These national plans elaborated during the last decade emphasize participatory school management, decentralization and school autonomy. 32 Tocantins's Participatory Management Program for Autonomous School (Programa Escola Autonona de Gestdo Compartilhada, 1997). See site of the Secretariat of Education of the State of Ceara: www/seduc.ce.gov. Programa de Melhoria do Ensino. 49 Other examples include the Santa Catarina's Program for Autonomy and Management of Public State Schools (Programa de Autonomia e Gestao da Escola Publica Estadual), Bahia's Strengthening School Management (Fortalecimento da Gestdo Escolar), Sao Paulo's extensive work of re-organizing and decentralizing management, and Rio Grande do Sul's Democratic Management Law (Lei de Gestao Democrdtica). These are good examples of initiatives begun immediately after the publication of the LDB. 3. Stages of lliimplemnentation of the SchooR Autonomy IPrograms nn lBraziR Since the early initiatives in the 1980s, school autonomy programs have had many advances and setbacks. Significant gains were registered in the mid-1990s, especially after the constitutional reforms and the publication of the LDB. Based on the information from the states, this study tentatively identifies three developmental stages in the school autonomy movement in Brazil, as follows: - Stage 1 (early 1980s up to early 1990s). For the first time, schools were recognized as democratic spaces. School leadership was considered an important element in changing the traditional relationship between schools and various levels of authority in the education system. This leadership was associated with the process of electing the school principal and the members of the school council. Another form of delegating and transferring authority to schools included mechanisms to transfer resources to schools. Stage 2 (started during the constitutional reforms and the publication of the LDB and extended to the end of the 1990s). This stage was marked by the institutionalization of parameters for school autonomy and by an awareness regarding the need to reorganize the schools to make full use of the existing legal mechanisms to achieve autonomy. It was also characterized by the transfer of financial resources to the schools, by the establishment of school plans, and by the use of technical criteria to select school principals. Stage 3 (started at the end of the 1990s and extends to the present). This phase is characterized by efforts to improve on the achievements of the previous stages and by the strengthening of school autonomy through various means. Most important are mechanisms for increasing accountability of the education systems (such as information, monitoring and evaluation systems, and school/teacher incentives), school projects to improve educational quality and accountability, and management training programs for school principals and other education professionals. Currently, most states seem be at different levels of stage 2, while some are between stages 2 and 3, and a few are in stage 3. Although a well-defined policy framework for school autonomy is often missing in state and municipal education systems, and despite advances and setbacks, there is a widespread effort towards implementation of school autonomy in Brazil. This effort continues to be supported by the Ministry of Education policies and by CONSED. Both contribute to: (i) maintaining a systematic debate about 50 school autonomy; (ii) developing programs to support these strategies; and (iii) establishing opportunities for the exchange of experiences among states. 4. School Autonomy in Selected States: Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro Pemambuco and Rio de Janeiro were selected for closer analysis because they are in different stages of implementation of their school autonomy programs and also because other states analyzed in this report (Parafba and Maranhao) have not defined school autonomy programs. Five aspects are central to the analysis: (a) the methods used to select school principals; (b) the establishment of School Councils/Associations (Parent-Teacher Associations, PTAs); (c) the existence of mechanisms to transfer funds to schools; (d) the adoption of School Plans or Pedagogical Projects by the schools; and (e) the existence of instruments to delegate authority to schools and to ensure accountability. (a) Pernambuco's experience with school autonomy Background. Pernambuco took decisive measures to establish more participatory mechanisms in the state and municipal schools beginning in the 1980s. In 1983, the state began to transfer financial resources to schools.33 Years later, Parente and Luck (1999) observed that only five states, Pernambuco among them, had mechanisms of school decentralization in place.34 The authors also found that by 1997, 91 percent of the state- operated schools had already instituted Pedagogical School Projects. Legal instruments. Although Pemambuco has a long history of decentralization, concrete school autonomy strategies were implemented only recently, based on the recommendations of the 2000-2009 State Education Plan (Plano Estadual de Educa(do 2000-2009). In September 2001, Government Decree 23,583 mandated all state public schools to use a mixed process for selecting school principals. In a very short time, this mandate generated a heated political battle between the authorities of the Secretariat of Education, the Teachers' Unions, the politicians, and different stakeholders.35 Because the government was committed to pursuing a more participatory school management approach as a too] to improve the quality of education, its position prevailed. Its measures for improving school autonomy started to be implemented, albeit only after a series of meetings with parents, teachers and community representatives throughout the state (including workshops and seminars at the State Assembly). The first change made was in the selection of the school principals for the state public schools. 33 Sobrinho et Ali (1 994). 34 The decentralization mechanisms indicated by Parente and Luck are: selection of principals, school councils, parent-teacher associations, School Bank Account or similar financial mechanism, pedagogical school project, and School Development Plan (PDE). 35 The politicians sensed that they would lose power because they could not continue to nominate school principals. The teachers' unions interpreted these measures as a hidden strategy used by the Government towards privatization of the public schools and a way to diminish the public sector responsibility for the schools. 51 Selection of School Principals. Until 2000, school principals were nomninated by the Governor based on political criteria. Only 11 state public schools located in municipalities of the metropolitan region selected principals through direct community election. These instances reflect the high level of political organization of these communities, which insisted in exercising their rights. The new selection process instituted in 2000 involves two stages: (i) a written test to ascertain the candidates' basic knowledge of subject matters pertinent to the post; and (ii) direct election through voting by the school community represented by parents, teachers, and students 12 years or older. Only the candidates who score in the top three positions in the written test are allowed to run for election. The Governor nominates the winning candidates for a three- year period, renewable for another three years. Elected principals have the responsibility to nominate their administrative teams and to choose their technical assistants. School Councils/Associations. School Councils were created in 1993 through Law 11,014, but their performance was weak; most did not function regularly; and their history has been characterized by setbacks. When the Federal Government's Direct Money to Schools Program (PDDE) set up as a condition for disbursement of funds the establishment of an Executing Unit (Unidade Executora, UEX)36 responsible for managing funds transferred to the schools, state authorities did not agree with the proposed federal model. They decided to negotiate the implementation of the program through a different mechanism. In their proposal, funds would be channeled to school councils through the State Secretariat of Education. In 1999, the incoming administration decided to adopt the federal model even though it was strongly opposed by the teachers' unions. The ensuing debate made School Councils even weaker and led to confusion as to their role. To solve this problem, the Secretariat of Education is now redefining the functions of the school councils, and it plans to provide training for council members as well as for school principals, using the resources of the CONSED's Progestao Program. Financial mechanisms for transferring funds to schools. Pernambuco's Secretariat of Education has transferred funds to schools for many years, mostly for school maintenance. Moneys are transferred through an invoice that does not exceed the amount allowed by Brazilian legislation, a maximum of approximately US$3,800 (R$8,000). In 1995, the Secretariat of Education began requesting the preparation of school development plans (Plano de Desenvolvimento da Escola, PDE) as a condition for transferring funds to schools. In other words, the state started to use the same mechanism adopted by the Federal Government. In addition to the PDE, and the school maintenance program, schools receive funds from FUNDESCOLA and from the State Direct Financial Resources School Program. Following the Minas Gerais and Parana models, Pernambuco is still experimenting with other forms of transferring funds to schools. Delegation of authority and accountability mechanisms. In an effort to establish accountability and management based on school performance, the state created the Education Evaluation System (Sistema de Avaliacao do Estado de Pernambuco, SAEPE) in 2000. Together with the PDEs, this evaluation is an important tool to increase 36 A non-profit corporate entity composed of parents, community representatives and teachers. 52 accountability and strengthen the drive for quality results in schools. One of SAEPE's main goals is to provide each school with a profile of its students' achievements based on national and state curricular parameters. This will allow SAEPE to promote a useful debate about pedagogical methodologies within the school community. As a follow-up to the evaluation, schools are expected to design and adopt measures for improving their teaching-learning processes. For the next round of tests planned for November of 2002, all state public schools have already volunteered to participate in the evaluation, and so have municipal schools located in 185 of the 187 municipalities. (b) Rio de Janeiro's Experience with School Autonomy Background. As in several other Brazilian states, the school autonomy movement in Rio de Janeiro dates back to the 1980s and started in association with the process of selecting school principals for the state public schools. At the time, the main purpose was to legitimize the leadership of the school principal in the community and to stimulate participatory approaches in school management. However, it seems that the early stages of this process were strongly associated with social-political interests that went well beyond the school community. Legal instruments. Rio de Janeiro has a large number of legal instruments supporting the implementation of school autonomy. With Resolution 1,929 of April 10, 1995, the state initiated an aggressive school autonomy policy, and since then legal instruments have evolved to support new aspects of the program. In 1998, Law 3,067 introduced improvements in the existing school autonomy mechanisms and incorporated into the program the idea of evaluation. In January 2000,37 Rio de Janeiro established the State Program for Restructuring Public Schools -- the New School Program (Programa Estadual de Reestrutura,do da Educa,cao Piublica -- Programa Nova Escola), the most comprehensive education program of its kind that includes external evaluation and school incentives. This program added great political strength to the efforts to improve educational quality. Selection of School Principals. Since 1985,38 Rio de Janeiro began selecting school principals through direct elections with community participation. Adjustments to this process were introduced in subsequent legislation, and a 1998 resolution39 established the guidelines for the School Management Program (Programa de Gestdo). These require that candidates for school principal elections present School Plans and a description of mechanisms to ensure community participation. School Councils/Associations for School Support (Associa,co de Apoio 2i Escola, AAE). Before 1997, school councils did not exist in Rio de Janeiro's public state schools. That year, Law 2,838 created school councils and set the basis for school autonomy. The councils were subsequently modified and renamed Associations for School Support (AAE) with multiple responsibilities including: associative roles, student assistance, 37 Through the Decree 25, 959, January 12, 2000. 38 See Sobrinho et Ali (1994) 39 Resolution number 2,156/98. 53 collaborating for finding solutions to school problems, fund-raising, and assisting in defining the use of the funds transferred to the schools. The AAE consists of a general assembly of parents, teachers and students, an Executive Office (of which the school principal is the president), and a Fiscal Council. The members of the Executive Committee are elected through secret vote for a two-year term. Despite the existence of these associations, school principals exercise strong control and leadership over the schools. Financial mechanisms for transferring funds to schools. In 1992, Rio de Janeiro started transferring money to schools. At that time, funds were earmarked for school maintenance and did not exceed the ceiling mandated by the state legislation below which bidding processes were not required. Nevertheless, schools have to follow a cumbersome procedure to contract for maintenance services. In 1995, the Secretariat of Education launched an autonomy proposal and transformed the Associations for Student Assistance into the Associations for School Support, marking a new phase of financial management in schools. Delegation of authority and accountability mechanisms. While the state is still perfecting its mechanisms for delegating authority and power to schools, it established an external school management evaluation process to support school accountability. This is implemented by the CESGRANRIO Foundation, in partnership with the state, beginning in January 2000. This external evaluation includes self-evaluation by the schools and promotes the adoption by the school community of measures to improve the school performance.40 Schools are evaluated and rated at three different levels: best schools (Level I), average schools (Level H), and schools with low achievement levels (Level I). When the program was launched, all schools were rated Level I, regardless of their performance. This was done to stimulate the participation of schools in the process. Subsequent progress would be measured against this baseline. At the end of two cycles of evaluation, it is possible to observe significant progress in the schools. Evaluation results are discussed with the members of each school community, and benchmarks for improvements are agreed upon. Last year's results show that most schools are in a transitional phase. Although there are great differences among schools, in general, schools have no proactive management and a lack of management controls. School principals lack management skills; teachers are not motivated and have low qualifications; and the mechanisms for parental participation are weak. These findings point to the need for (i) developing a management training program for school principals; (ii) designing professional development programs for teachers; (iii) establishing specific programs for supporting schools to improve student achievement; and (iv) creating strategies for eliminating strong outcome inequalities among schools. 40 The evaluation guidelines avoid comparisons between schools and stress school self-evaluation. For evaluation purposes only, the indicators are those over which schools have control (planning, management of the educational process, and school-community interaction), and not those dependent on Secretariat of Education interventions. 54 The Secretariat of Education considers the debate provoked by external evaluation to be positive for improving the quality of education in the state, particularly because it involves all members of the school community. The school self-evaluation process is expected to serve as a tool for schools to review their educational practices. To guarantee continuity of the external evaluation program new legal instruments were established, and a committee was created to oversee program implementation. However, considering the political changes expected to take place in January 2003, no official statement has been made guaranteeing the continuity of the program. 5. School Autonomy Strategies as Seen by Schools Besides the information obtained from documents or directly from the staff of the Secretariats of Education, information for this study was collected through questionnaires answered by teachers, school principals and/or representatives of the school council or school association.41 The main findings from the analysis of the survey responses are presented below: (a) Perception of Autonomy. Survey respondents tend to perceive autonomy in their schools as weak. Positive views on the level of autonomy of the schools are held by only 22 percent in Pemambuco and 17 percent in Rio de Janeiro. Respondents in Rio de Janeiro schools considered their autonomy very limited. In Pernambuco, 70 percent say their schools have "partial autonomy." In Rio de Janeiro, 66 percent share this opinion and 17 percent say their schools are not autonomous. With regard to teaching, school respondents in Pernambuco show a more positive view of autonomy than those in Rio de Janeiro. Respondents in Pernambuco mention the preparation of school development plans and the implementation of pedagogical projects (see Graphs I and 2).42 In both states, respondents complain about excessive rules and regulations imposed by the Secretariats of Education and by the central level, particularly with respect to personnel management. Financial resources are seen as centrally defined by the Secretariats of Education and, in general, do not respond to specific school needs. 41 A complete set of questionnaires, tables and graphics are included in the background paper on School Autonomy prepared for this study. 42 School participating in the survey were mostly located in the metropolitan area. There is no evidence in how strongly their answers were influenced by the activities introduced by the Fundescola program, which gives emphasis to school plans for Increasing quality of education and school accountability. 55 Graph 2: School's Perception on Autonomy - Pernanmbiuco 100%/ 80%/o 0 PEDAGOGICAL 40%/o / FINANCIAL 20% O AADMINISTRATIVE 0% C YES NO PARTIALLY 100%1/ 80% /o PEDAGOGIC 60% 40% /:] FINANCIAL 40% 20% X i = ADMINISTRATIVE 0% YES NO PARTIALLY Graph 3: School's Perception on Autonomy - Rio de Janeiro (b) Obstacles to the success of schooR autonomy programs. Those surveyed in Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro mention the centralized "culture" of the Secretariats of Education as the greatest obstacle to school autonomy. Rio de Janeiro was more emphatic in this aspect; 83 percent of the respondents selected this item as the most serious impediment to school autonomy, whereas in Pemambuco approximately 66 percent indicated the same problem. Other impediments mentioned by school communities in Pernambuco include lack of training of school council members and the lack of participation by the community. Shortage of personnel to operate the schools and low level of authority to fully exercise school-based management were also problems mentioned by respondents in Rio de Janeiro schools. (c) SchooR practices and tools. In both Rio de Janeiro and Pemambuco, all school communities stated that they have School Plans (PDEs). In response to a question about school councils, all respondents in Pemambuco answered positively, whereas in Rio de Janeiro about 83 percent did so. With respect to availability of information and monitoring systems, respondents in Rio de Janeiro indicated that they have more access to computer information systems than those in Pemambuco. However, in Pernambuco, 78 percent reported the existence of pedagogical/technical supervision in their schools, while in Rio de Janeiro only 50 percent did so. In response to a question about the relationship between school planning and outcomes (focusing on students' achievement), Pemambuco respondents indicated that schools recently started to increase their focus on students' achievements. About 56 83 percent of the respondents in Rio de Janeiro stated that teamwork is used as a teaching-learning methodology and that systematic monitoring of student achievements has been adopted. In Pernambuco, the use of innovative teaching- learning practices in the classroom was rated lower (45 percent) than in Rio de Janeiro. In-service training to improve student-centered teaching methodologies is more frequently used in Rio de Janeiro (45 percent) than in Pernambuco (30 percent). Despite differences in results, respondents in both states complain about the lack of in-service training opportunities for teachers. (d) Participation at the school level. A matrix was created to test the difference of opinions held by members of the school community (councils, teachers, school principals, students, parents or guardians) and their actual functions and responsibilities at the school (definition of priorities, participation in the design of school plan, or in pedagogical practices, school infrastructure decisions, evaluation and monitoring of results). The results indicate a clear dissociation between opinions given by the school staff and those given by the other members of the school community. School principals and teachers say that the school community participates in all of decisions, whereas students and parents claim little participation in decision-making. In both states, council members say they participate heavily in defining guidelines for the use of funds, and in prioritizing infrastructure needs. However, they say their participation is low with respect to decisions in other areas. All school councils and parents mention that low participation levels is one of the major impediments for the implementation of school-based management. One of the recommendations that emerges from these findings is to establish training programs for individuals involved in school management because training for parents or members of the school councils has not thus far been offered in the two states (see Graph 3). Graph 4: In-service Training in Pernambuco's Schools 100% IL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I 40% - S-- 20% =- '-{ - 40% f CONSELHOS DIRETOR PAIS PROFESSORES (e) Financial Management. Respondents in both states consider the financial resources transferred to the school as insufficient to cover emergency needs (66 percent in Pernambuco and 83 percent in Rio de Janeiro). These resources are seen as even less satisfactory to cover the implementation of school development plans (PDEs). In addition, delays in transfer constitute the most critical issue in both states. 57 Schools in Pernambuco note that the financial mechanisms and criteria for transferring funds to schools used by federal programs are more supportive of school autonomy than those used by the state. School communities approve of the federal PME (FUNDESCOLA) because it allocates resources based on school priorities, and they also like the PDE because of its flexibility. Rio de Janeiro respondents consider all state and federal programs important for meeting the needs of schools, regardless of their restrictions. The two states render accounts to both the Council/AEE and the Secretariat of Education. (I) limpacts of school autonomy on the schools. This section of the questionnaire was intended to determine the level of satisfaction regarding the reforms that are being undertaken in support of school autonomy. The majority of respondents in both states show a high level of satisfaction with activities being implemented to develop school-based management, except for the criteria for selecting school principals. A positive opinion is expressed by 80 percent in Rio de Janeiro, and by 78 percent in Pernambuco. Questions about the school council and the pedagogical school project in Pernambuco received a 100 percent satisfaction rate.43 Although the level of satisfaction with the method for selecting school principals in Pernambuco did not receive a high rate, school teams affirm that the new selection method legitimatizes leadership, shows commitment to the community, and helps develop democratic practices. Survey participants mention the selection process as a way to fully develop democratic practices (100 percent). As noted above, schools in both states are dissatisfied with the amounts of financial resources they receive. But respondents from both Pernambuco (89 percent) and Rio de Janeiro (100 percent) agree that despite the small size of the transfers compared to the needs of the schools, the resources transferred do increase school effectiveness. In Rio de Janeiro, with the exception of the item concerning funds for the development of school projects (which received a 66 percent rate), school communities find the transfers highly beneficial (more than 80 percent). In Pernambuco, the transfer benefits to schools are associated with: (i) agility in making decisions at the school level; (ii) the possibility of developing a school's specific projects; (iii) learning through financial management (89 percent); and (iv) the possibility of acquiring school supplies at lower costs (66 percent). Finally, respondents consider the fact that financial resources remain in the community (55 percent) as an important gain. There are different levels of satisfaction regarding the actions adopted by the programs in both states. In Rio de Janeiro, there is a clear divergence of opinions between the school community and central levels. The school communities complain about bureaucracy, centralization, shortage of employees, and obstacles that need to be overcome in dealing with personnel. These individuals believe that the fairness of external evaluations must be improved. They demand greater decision-making authority and more freedom in 43 It is important to remember that, in Pernambuco, the reference made by schools to the Council is sometimes related to the Fiscal Council, as a result of the integration of the School Councils with the Executing Unit. 58 management, in both the financial and pedagogical areas, which challenges the authority of the central level staff. In Pernambuco, relationships between the schools and central levels are better, but respondents mentioned issues similar to those noted by their colleagues in Rio de Janeiro, such as: (i) lack of clear school autonomy policies; (ii) low performance/participation of the school councils, parents, and the community as a whole; (iii) lack of preparation of teachers in planning/implementing projects; and (iv) lack of training programs to enable teachers and other school personnel to carry out their new management responsibilities. The Pemambuco respondents propose greater support for teachers, establishment of information systems at the school level, and decentralization in hiring temporary replacement for teachers. General comments on the status of school autonomy in the selected states. In general, school participants from both states are pleased with the set of policies and processes designed to make school autonomy a reality. However, they have doubts about the continuity of the program, and question changes in the "culture" of centralization that characterizes the central level, mainly in Rio de Janeiro. Thus, school autonomy is still perceived as very fragile. Paradoxically, in Rio de Janeiro, where there is a long history of legal instruments supporting school autonomy, those surveyed see themselves as having little autonomy in all areas (pedagogical, administrative, and financial) -- in contrast with the views stated by central level authorities. Several factors, or a combination of them, may explain these divergent views: the pressure placed on schools as a result of the external evaluation initiative; the control exercised by school principals over the school community, causing the AAEs to have little participation in the schools' decision making process; and the rigidities of central level procedures. In spite of the advances made by Rio de Janeiro in devising instruments that increase school accountability, it seems clear that legal instruments alone are insufficient to achieve the objectives of the school autonomy program. The great impact that could be attained by the use of the external management evaluation, for example, might be reduced due to the lack of a clear school autonomy framework in which schools define their strategic activities. The history of school autonomy in Pernambuco is more recent, and management evaluation instruments are still being designed and tested as part of the preparation of an operation to be financed by the Bank. However, it is clear that to guarantee the continuity of the program, to boost community participation, and to increase the credibility of the program, there is need for a more robust set of legal instruments and for a clear definition of the roles and responsibilities of all those involved in school-based management (at the schools and at the central/regional level). If quality improvements are the central goal, additional actions are needed to increase the quality of teaching, the management of schools and the alignment between central level and school activities. The education authorities seem to understand these problems and are designing a set of measures and 59 programs to achieve the ultimate goal of providing better schools for students under their jurisdiction, including the municipal schools. Although the debate on school autonomy has centered on the search and adoption of management and pedagogical strategies leading to better school outcomes and greater student achievements, this process has been strongly influenced by the dissimilar interests of the various stakeholders in both states. This in turn, suggests the need for specific information and communication strategies to gain public support for implementation of the reforms. The school autonomy pirogram and ts impact on education outcomes. One frequent question in the debate on school autonomy is to what extent this type of program can improve students' education outcomes. As often stated by the national and international literature, the answer to this question is difficult. The assumption is that school autonomy can make a significant difference in many aspects of the school environment that might be conducive to better learning and more inclusive of the more disadvantaged groups. However, such an assumption has not been fully tested. What is known is that specific improvements in student achievements depend on the intricate interplay of an array of associated factors related to teaching-learning strategies and teacher-student behaviors and attitudes. Thus, it makes sense to believe that raising school accountability and the accountability of individual teachers may well be one key measure to improve student performance. Despite these limitations, there are some indicators from the School Census and the SAEB that help identify trends in the education systems of the selected states that could be directly or indirectly influenced by school autonomy measures. In addition to the states of Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, data from Ceara, Parana, and Minas Gerais were included for comparison. The findings from this analysis show the following (see Annex II): D Access to school, reflected in net enrollment rates, has increased in all states, and with significant impact in Ceara. o Average dropout rates in fundamental education (grades I to 8 of basic education) decreased in all states. Parana stands out for having continued to reduce dropout rates, reaching the lowest level of all states in the sample, and Ceard has substantially reduced its dropout rates. Pernambuco has the highest dropout rates in the sample. o Promotion rates increased in Ceard, Parana, and Rio de Janeiro. In the other states, the rates fluctuated. Pernambuco has the lowest promotion rates. D Despite the variations in the SAEB's results, it can be seen that (compared to Brazil as a whole), Minas Gerais, Parand, and Rio de Janeiro are in a better position than Pernambuco. 60 * The results suggest a correlation between positive results on education indicators and the state's involvement in school autonomy programs. If this correlation holds true upon further analysis, it may explain why Pemambuco is in a less favorable position, as it is the only state in the sample that has just begun a school autonomy program. More research needs to be done on this subject. FUNDESCOLA Research Evaluation. Preliminary findings of the ongoing evaluation by researchers from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, of the Brazil's School Development Plans (PDEs) for a sample of states show interesting results related to the school autonomy debate and to the use of school plans as tools for improving the quality of education and the accountability of schools. Preliminary findings show that PDE schools are able to identify their problems and devise strategies to address them. About one-third of monies received by the schools go to acquire teaching materials. PDE schools have experienced greater increases in contacts between parents and teachers, but show no change in contacts between parents and school principals. Being a PDE school seems to have a long-term positive effect on test scores (particularly on Portuguese test scores). These preliminary findings are distinctly relevant as they support the basic assumptions behind the efforts by the states in favor of school-based management strategies. 6. Conclusions and Recommendations The concept of school autonomy, or school-based management, in the Brazilian education systems follows the international trend towards giving more power and authority to schools. International experience shows that the processes and products that contribute to successful school-based management reforms are those aimed at strengthening decision-making by school communities (principals, teachers, parents, and community members). Experience also shows that these processes need to be supported by changes in school governance and management, strategic planning, school financing, accountability, and by the development of new skills for staff members. The successful Brazilian experiences provide lessons similar to those previously seen in Australia and New Zealand. They indicate that the underlying bases for school autonomy reform relate to systemic changes of society at large, not only changes in school participants and their immediate associates as change agents. The study of the experiences of Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, compared to other national and international experiences, leads to conclusions that can be more broadly applied to various Brazilian states, even those which are more advanced in the implementation of those programs. The main conclusions and recommendations are: (a) Reorganize the institutional structures at the central/regional level and establish coherent linkages between these structures, the functions and authority of the school community, and the processes that support those functions. 61 The success of school autonomy programs depends largely on how the structure, procedures and functions of the central institutions support the reforms at the school level. Regardless of differences in organizational structures, the coherence of the system proves to be more important for the success of these programs than specific representation formulae. The functions and authority of members of the school community and the processes that support those functions need to be coherently aligned. All the successful experiences show a clear relationship between the responsibilities of school personnel and the authority, resources and support provided by the central/regional administration for schools to meet those responsibilities. Although both Pemambuco and Rio de Janeiro have legal instruments supporting the delegation of authority to the schools, there remain large gray areas related to the definition of boundaries between what schools can do or manage, and the resources they receive to fulfill the new responsibilities. In none of the international and national cases reviewed, was system coherence achieved on the first attempt. Responsibility boundaries had to be continually assessed during the implementation of school-based management in New Zealand and Australia. Although several other elements might hinder the full implementation of school autonomy in Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, the existence of large gray areas in the definition of those roles causes tension between the central and the local levels. There is a need for additional studies and proposals to restructure the Secretariats of Education so as to adjust their structures to the new requirements of decentralization. The restructuring is likely to include improved planning, information, monitoring and evaluation systems. There is also a need for supporting schools through technical assistance, articulation, and cooperation between state and municipal education systems. (b) )efnne clear roles acnd responsibilities for school commnunifties. Lessons learned from international experience indicate that decision-making at schools is facilitated by (i) governance, the process and authority to define school goals and improvement strategies; and (ii) management, the daily decisions, actions and leadership provided in the operation of schools. Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro tried to set up autonomous but interdependent bodies for governance (school councils) and management (principals). They also identified pertinent memberships and executive leadership (from school communities) to make government and management decisions. While these are critical elements for the success of school autonomy programs, and the legal instruments make explicit the roles and responsibilities of the various players, there are no clear boundaries of decision-making and authority between the central administration and the schools in the two states. Both states need to continue advancing in this area. Furthermore, besides creating interdependent government and management bodies, a key organizational step is the decision regarding which individuals play what roles. The national and international experiences show an array of differences as to which individuals (parents, community leaders, principals, teachers and students) are represented and lead governance units. Because governance, management responsibilities, and authority are potential areas of contention, it is recommended that 62 states conduct participatory evaluations and set up frank and open discussions among school councils and principals, teachers and parents to identify governance and management issues and the areas that need strengthening. These discussions should be followed by problem-solving and conflict-resolution workshops to help clarify responsibilities at both schools and central units. (c) Develop school plans (PDE) that translate school decisions into tangible improvements. The document that consolidates the school planning process (improvement goals, objectives, activities, and needed resources) may be called by different names, both in the various Brazilian states and in other countries. For this document to become a true accountability tool, it should include a description of school goals and improvement strategies that are shared by all involved, and include measures whereby future school performance can be measured. The document should be a contract between schools and their financing agencies. To achieve this goal, international experience shows that the education systems need to invest heavily in strengthening school planning skills, team- building, and interpersonal relations among principals, teachers, and parents. The planning skills lead to viable, logical and well-drafted plans. Team-building leads to an effective process of participation, consultation, conflict resolution and shared decision- making. Both the managerial skills and the process and interpersonal skills are critical elements in the success of school-based management reforms in many experiences throughout the world. The evaluation systems currently in place in the states (following the Ministry of Education national system of monitoring and evaluation of education), are powerful instruments for measuring school outcomes. However, they are not sufficient to generate accountability and quality of education. Lessons learned from both the international and Brazilian experiences show the need to relate the results of outcome measures to the policies and initiatives devised to improve the quality education. For this, we can turn to the specific aspects of the successful experiences (Parana, Ceara, and Minas Gerais) and to special programs such as FUNDESCOLA. (d) Improve the financing mechanisms and the instruments for transferring resources to schools. When financial management decision-making is decentralized, two advantages accrue: (i) the strengthening of administrative capacity at the school level; and (ii) the guarantee of enough financial and human resources to maintain a minimum quality of education services (staff, instruction materials, training, etc). Besides making their own decisions on how to improve their schools, local personnel need financial resources to implement their plans. New Zealand, Australia, Chile, and El Salvador, among other countries, and in Brazil, Minas Gerais, Parana and Ceara, give good examples of how to combine centralized and decentralized financing systems. In Brazil, it seems that the majority of state education systems are less willing to accept fully decentralized financing than seems to be the case in Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro. Given this situation, a gradual 63 decentralization process is recommended to facilitate necessary administrative and organizational cultural changes. Several international and Brazilian experiences seem to favor keeping the management of teachers and school maintenance resources centralized. However, when schools adopt school autonomy programs they are supported by block grants allocated on the basis of school needs. These grants are managed independently by the schools. To guarantee the success of such programs and the credibility of the school personnel, Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro have kept teacher salaries and large infrastructure repairs centralized, while providing additional financing through flexible school grants allocated according to school priorities. It is important to balance the delegation of authority and responsibility shifted to schools with what schools can effectively manage. Examples from Australia show that, in Victoria, when financial management responsibility was further delegated to schools, it represented an additional burden on the school administration and management resources. In other situations, as in New Zealand, highly participatory and enthusiastic parents were disappointed when they realized that school budgets were mostly committed to fixed expenses (such as administration, maintenance, utilities), and the discretionary budget was very small. An important lesson derived from that is the importance of disseminating realistic expectations to avoid disappointments and loss of motivation during implementation of school-based management or school autonomy programs. These lessons should be considered not only by Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, but also by other Brazilian states that are starting school autonomy strategies. (e) Strengthen the mechanlism to inerease school accountabRlity. School accountability is integral to any school autonomy program. Governance and management structures must clearly identify the school personnel who are accountable. School plans must specify the goals, strategies and the resources for which schools are accountable. The allocation of financial resources should be directly based on these school plans. Accountability mechanisms should focus mainly on actual results at the school level (evaluation of stated versus actual outcomes). When schools are empowered to make decisions and receive resources to implement their own plans, they become accountable for their achievements. In many countries, school improvement plans (or charters) are the basic tools for school accountability. In several countries school plans include: (i) medium-term improvement goals; (ii) annual objectives and targets; (iii) planned activities; and (iv) required financial resources. Central evaluations and accountability procedures are based on these school plans. Although this study demonstrated wide use of the PDE,44 the utility of this instrument as an accountability tool is minimal. Ceara has recently established some important tools to track school outcomes through the Internet after training the relevant school personnel. However, the experience is too new to have a strong impact on school 44 Mainly in the FUNDESCOLA target schools and in states were the school autonomy programs more advanced. 64 outcomes. The role of the central institutions should be to move from monitoring procedures and accounts to evaluating school achievement based on school plans. If school improvement targets are achieved (increased access, lower dropout rates, improved test scores, increased parental participation, improved management skills, for example) this means that resources were well used and accounted for. Only when targets are not achieved should schools provide a full statement of use of the funds. Both Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco use some kind of school accountability mechanism, but they do not seem to be using these mechanisms to their full potential for increasing school accountability and results. (f) Establish development plans and training programs for all school personnel to develop the skills needed to implement school autonomy programs. A sound training program for parents and teachers and all school personnel is required to support the implementation of school autonomy programs. The new responsibilities and roles require developing the pertinent skills of all pertinent personnel. Together with legal instruments that clearly establish the new roles and skill requirements for the different individuals, a training and staff development program should be established to impart or improve the skills necessary for them to effectively perform their new roles and functions. This program should include a combination of teaching, planning, management, and interpersonal skills. The "business" of schools continues to be teaching and learning, and schools need to maintain and upgrade pedagogical standards of excellence on a permanent basis when implementing management reforms. The new school responsibilities require organizational skills such as planning and management, combined with process skills such as team-building, interpersonal relations, and conflict resolution. Training must be provided not only for school staff but also for parents and community members. The Progestdo Program is a good model for upgrading the management skills of school principals, but it needs to be complemented by other programs addressing the needs of teachers and parents. Special training programs for parents can give them the knowledge, skills, and attitudes that enable them to make key contributions to the school. El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, as well as other middle- and low-income countries, made substantial improvements in developing programs for semi-illiterate parents and community members who are effectively operating schools in the rural areas of those countries. Finally, it is worth stressing that autonomy is a political process that involves conflicts of power and political tensions. Therefore, it calls for ample discussions among all parties involved. It calls for the construction of coalitions, for clear regulations, for time to mature, and for gradual implementation in order to ensure that it becomes institutionalized and sustainable. 65 VL Financial Aspects of Education ]Reform inn Maranhao, IParailba, Perinambuco aund Rio de Janeiro 1. Study Objectives and DJ]esign This study examines the fiscal implications of simultaneously improving the quality and expanding the coverage of basic education in four states, with the objective of determining the fiscal viability of such reforms. To more accurately appraise the financial feasibility of educational reform, the study first analyzes the current situation, measuring how much each state spends on education, how education expenditures are divided between municipal and state governments, and what the current situation regarding the qualification of teachers and the education infrastructure is compared with regional and national averages. Next, the study develops alternative future scenarios, combining different hypotheses for projecting state and municipal expenditures per student in primary, lower and upper secondary education, with different levels of improvement in educational effectiveness affecting student enrollment. The analysis is conducted for each state separately. 2. Overview of the Curirent Situation Maranhao Maranhao spends a relatively high share of GDP on public education. Combining expenditures on education and culture, total expenditures ranged in the 5.6 (1997) to 8.1 (2000) percent of GDP interval during the 1996-2000 period. Municipal governments accounted for about a third of the total; expenditures on culture represent a modest share of both municipal and state expenditures.45 Per year, per capita total expenditures on education, in constant 199946 dollars, increased from the equivalent of US$84.40 to US$128.20 during the 1996-2000 period, possibly partly reflecting the impact of municipal elections. Comparable data indicate that Maranhao spends a larger share of GDP on education than the regional Northeast and national averages. This finding holds true whether or not pension expenditures are included, even though education pension expenditures represent 3 percent of GDP in Maranhao. The way Maranhao allocates education expenditures is also significantly different from that of other states in the Northeast and in Brazil as a whole. On a per-student basis and as a share of GDP, Maranhao spends less on basic education and more on higher education than does the Northeastern region or the country. It follows, that conditions in 45 Culture and education expenditures are referred to as education expenditures from this point onward in the paper 46 Dollares are in PPP (purchising power parity) 66 basic education with respect to teacher qualifications and infrastructure are less than satisfactory. Except in the case of state schools, Maranhao falls significantly behind national averages in both aspects, albeit the gap is a bit smaller with respect to the regional average Poorly qualified teachers in lower-secondary schools and in municipal schools clearly distinguish Maranhao from the rest of the region; only one-quarter of teachers in these schools are qualified. Municipal secondary schools have a much lower proportion of qualified teachers than state schools, and at the primary level, where the bulk of municipal teachers work, only I percent of teachers are qualified. The basic education infrastructure conditions are also deficient. Even though 93 percent of the schools have water supply, access to electricity is restricted, particularly in rural areas. Other infrastructure indicators for basic education schools reflect dismal physical conditions. Only 4 percent have sport fields (courtyards); only 6 percent have libraries; and just 1.5 percent have a computer laboratory. Science laboratories are practically non- existent, and internet access exists in only I of every 200 schools. Conditions in upper- secondary schools are comparatively better, especially in state schools. Most schools have access to water and electricity; 25 percent have libraries; about 18 percent have sport fields; and 7 percent have computer laboratories. Internet access is available to only 1.7 percent of the upper-secondary schools. Parai'ba The share of GDP spent on education in Paraiba increased from 5.9 percent in 1996 to 9.6 percent in 2000, a 62 percent increase. This trend is also seen in the share of education to total state expenditures, which increased by 15 percent over four years. Per student expenditures increased by more than 30 percent, reaching the equivalent of US$181 in 1999. This means that both as a ratio to GDP and in per student terms, Paraiba spends about twice as much on education than countries with similar or even higher per capita incomes such as Bolivia, Ecuador and El Salvador. About one- third of education expenditures is spend on pensions. Teacher qualifications in upper-secondary schools are similar to those observed in Maranhao, but Paraiba has markedly better qualified teachers in lower-secondary schools --grade levels at which almost 80 percent of teachers have university education. In these lower-secondary schools, approximately 80 percent of the teachers are qualified, although the proportion is smaller in municipal schools. Less qualified teachers are concentrated in municipal primary schools, where only half of the teachers are qualified. With respect to infrastructure conditions, basic education schools tend to have access to water supply and electricity without much difference as to whether they are run by municipalities, the state government, or the private sector. Water is available in 95.6 percent of the schools and electricity in 73.5 percent. Other infrastructure aspects are less satisfactory: 12.1 percent of schools have libraries; 6.8 percent have sport fields; 2.1 percent have science laboratories; 2.7 percent have computer laboratories; and only 1.4 67 percent of basic education schools have internet access. Public school conditions in rural areas are dismal with regard to these facilities, which are virtually nonexistent. There is also a large difference between private and public schools, as private schools have five to ten times the infrastructure facilities that exist in public schools. Moreover, among the 5,195 public basic education municipal schools, only a small number has any of these infrastructure facilities (e.g. 3.9 percent have school libraries). Municipal governments operate two-thirds of the basic education schools in the state and three-fourths of those located in rural areas. The situation is distinctively better in upper-secondary schools, possibly because most of them are urban and are operated by the state (58 percent). All upper-secondary schools have access to water supply and electricity, and the majority of them have libraries (72.4 percent) and sport fields (55.7 percent). The situation is also better, although still unsatisfactory, concerning science and computer laboratories (24.8 and 13.2 percent, respectively). However, average statistics mask striking differences that exist between private and public schools, and among state and municipal schools. For example, less than two-thirds of municipal upper-secondary schools have libraries; less than half have sport fields; 16 percent have science laboratories; 6 percent have computer laboratories; and only 1 percent have internet access. Pernambuco During the 1996-2000 period, public expenditures on education in Pernambuco were much lower as a share of GDP than in Maranhao and Paraiba, ranging between 3.1 and 3.7 percent. Municipal expenditures were kept at an almost constant ratio to GDP in 1996-1999 but raised substantially in 2000, a fact that is also observed in other states and might be associated with municipal elections held that year. State government expenditures on education increased from 1996 to 1998 -- when gubernatorial elections were held -- but declined thereafter. Total public per student expenditure rose during the 1996-1998 period, when it peaked at US$130.00 equivalent, but felt to US$123.00 in 2000. These values place Pernambuco above average levels for Bolivia, Ecuador and El Salvador, but below the level for Colombia, Venezuela and Panama. The allocation of public education expenditures between investment and recurrent costs shows that one- sixth of the total is devoted to investment. Education pensions expenditures represent about 2 percent of GDP in Pernambuco. As to the allocation of expenditures by education level, Pernambuco spends relatively more on upper-secondary education and higher education and less on the fundamental cycle of basic education (grades 1-8) than does the Northeast region as a whole. Per student expenditures are also lower in Pernambuco than in the region, reflecting smaller age-grade distortion Regarding the qualifications of the teaching staff, the situation in Pemambuco is better than in Maranhao and Paraiba. In the state school system, approximately 95 percent of teachers in lower-secondary schools are qualified as are 96 percent of those in upper- secondary schools. In state primary schools, the proportion of teachers with university 68 education is also relatively high. The share of qualified teachers declines in the municipal school system but not by much: 82 percent of teachers in lower-secondary schools and 91 percent in upper-secondary schools are qualified. The problem resides in primary schools where only 16 percent of the teachers have university degrees. At the basic education level, practically all schools in Pernambuco have access to water supply and electricity; 79 percent have libraries; and 60 percent have sport fields. But most schools lack many of the other basic physical facilities. Few have science and computer laboratories, and practically none have internet access at the time of the survey. When public and private schools are disaggregated, it becomes clear that conditions in public schools are much more deficient: only 5.5 percent have a library; 2.6 percent have sport fields. Computer laboratories (I percent) and internet access (0.6 percent) are practically nonexistent in public schools. Although urban public schools are well equipped, few have such facilities. State schools are better off than municipal schools because most have libraries and sport fields, but still lack science and computer laboratories and internet access. Rio de Janeiro Education expenditures in Rio de Janeiro were relatively low as a share of GDP in the 1996-2000 period. After declining through 1997 and bottoming out at 1.3 percent, state expenditures began to increase continuously reaching 3.0 percent of GDP in 2000. Municipal spending on education remained relatively stable around 0.6 percent of GDP until 2000, when it jumped to 1.5 percent. Except in this last year, the share of municipal education expenditures has been significantly lower than the national average. The increase in municipal expenditures in 2000 brought per student spending on education in Rio de Janeiro to levels similar to those of Mexico, Uruguay, Chile and Argentina. Nevertheless, a large part of education expenditures -- close to 50 percent in 1997-1998, is devoted to pensions. Net of pensions, the level of education spending in Rio de Janeiro is lower than the average for the Southeastern Region. In the lower-secondary state education system, the qualifications of teachers are less than satisfactory, as 5,574 teachers do not have university degrees. As many as 97 percent of those teaching in upper-secondary schools are qualified. In primary schools, only one- fifth of the teachers are qualified. In contrast with the three Northeast states previously reviewed, the qualifications of municipal teachers are better: 99 percent have university degrees. It is notable that the share of qualified teachers in primary and lower secondary schools -- which comprise the bulk of the municipal system -- increased rapidly during the 1999-2001 period even though the absolute number of teachers expanded. This probably indicates that national qualification standards are being followed for the hiring of new teachers. School infrastructure conditions in Rio de Janeiro generally surpass the national average with regard to access to water and electricity. Except for a portion of rural schools, the great majority of schools in the state have these basic utilities. Similarly, Rio de Janeiro is above the national average with respect to sport fields, libraries, science and computer 69 laboratories, and internet access. Among the basic education schools, 55 percent have a library; 39 percent have a field for sports; 28 percent have computer laboratories; 21 percent have internet access; and 14 percent have science laboratories. Nonetheless, municipal schools are not as well equipped as state schools, and rural schools present worse conditions than urban ones. In general, upper-secondary schools have better infrastructures than basic education schools. Practically all of them have access to water and electricity; 83 percent have a library; and 76 percent have adequate fields for sports. The situation is also more favorable, although far from ideal, regarding the other infrastructure facilities. Fully 60 percent of the schools have computer laboratories; 40 percent have science laboratories; and 37 percent have internet access. Nevertheless, these averages conceal wide differences between private and federal schools and the rest of the upper-secondary school system. Schools run by the state and by the municipalities have infrastructure standards below those of the Southeast Region. 3. ARternative Future Scenarios The reference point for the simulation analysis that resulted in the development of three basic scenarios tested in all five states, is the share of GDP spent on education in the year 2000; the time frame for the projections ends either in 2010 or in 2020. Future scenarios are defined according to the different values assigned to two basic variables. Given the prevailing demographic trends, the first determinant variable considered is education efficiency, defined in terms of student transition rates resulting from different grade repetition and dropout rates. The second variable in the analysis is the level of expenditure per student, which reflects differences in education quality. The analysis presented here unduly simplifies the impact of each scenario on the fiscal conditions of states and municipalities because it combines expenditures. Municipalities are responsible for primary education, in which enrollment is expected to decline, while the states will continue to face the more expensive upper-secondary education in which enrollment is expected to increase. Thus, the impact of each scenario on state and municipal accounts may be quite different. 47 Alternative future scenarios are structured as follows: Level of Education Expenditure per Student: A. Baseline: Constant municipal and state combined per student expenditure at 1998 levels expressed in R$ of 2000 B. Intermediate: Increased per student expenditure to estimated level for Brazil Southeastern Region C. High: Increased per student expenditure to estimated levels for Chile D. Highest: Increased per student expenditure to estimated levels for South Korea 47 For a complete detailed analysis see the background paper by Castelar Pinheiro, "Fiscal Considerations in Education: The Case of Maranhao, Parafba, Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro." June 2002. 70 Level of Education Efficiency of the System as a Whole: a. Baseline: Repetition and dropout rates (student transition levels) remain constant at 1999 levels b. Highest: Repetition and dropout gradually decline until they fall to half 1999 levels The following alternative scenarios result from the combinations of these options: Scenario Aa Baseline expenditures and efficiency levels remain constant Scenario Ba Expenditures rise to Chilean levels and efficiency levels remain constant Scenario Ca Expenditures rise to Southeast Region levels and efficiency levels remain constant Scenario Ab Expenditures remain at baseline with increased efficiency levels Scenario Bb Expenditures rise to Chilean levels with increased efficiency levels Scenario Cb Expenditures rise to Southeast Region levels with increased efficiency levels Scenario Da Expenditures rise to South Korean levels and efficiency levels remain constant Scenario Db Expenditures rise to South Korean Levels and efficiency levels increase The Korean expenditure levels (Scenarios Da and Db) are applicable only in the case of Rio de Janeiro, which has the lowest education expenditure to GDP ratios among the states considered. Enrollment projections by education level are estimated on the basis of: (a) the number of children entering the first grade; (b) enrollment by grade in 2001, and (c) the transition rate of students from one grade to the next, which is a function of repetition and dropout rates. The per student expenditures used in the analysis are the following: Table 21. Comparative Data on Estimated Per Student Expenditure (2000 R$)48 49 - Expenditure Base- _______ - Levels of Education Primary Lower-Secondary Upper-Secondary Chile 2429 2568 2717 Southeastern Region 726 894 770 Maranhao 393 485 532 Paraf'ba 429 528 732 Pernambuco 407 502 583 Rio de Janeiro 838 1032 1142 48 All figures in Brazilian Real are adjusted to purchasing power parity to the US dollar. 49 State and Municipal expenditures on education and culture are combined in the per capita figures presented for each state; culture expenditures represent a minor share of these totals. Totals exclude pensions and federal education expenditures. 71 Source: World Bank estimates. 4. Simukationn Results Maranhao Student enrollment in Maranhao in primary education peaked in 1998. In lower and upper secondary education, enrollment will likely peak in 2004 and 2008, respectively. The combined effect of these trends is a gradual reduction in total enrollment, which would have peaked in 2001, and a shift in the distribution toward a larger share for upper secondary education. In scenario (Aa) per-student expenditures in Maranhao for primary, lower and upper secondary education are assumed not to change in real terms in both state and municipal schools throughout the forecast period and efficiency rates remain constant. For Maranhao this yields a declining ratio of municipal plus state expenditures on basic education to GDP, from an estimated 8.7 percent of GDP in 2000 to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2020. In this case, both state and municipal expenditures would decline, the latter more than the former. In scenario ( Ba) per-student expenditures rise to the levels estimated for Chile in 2000. This would require that a fifth of the state GDP be allocated to basic education in 2020, an unlikely outcome. An intermediary alternative (Ca) assumes that per-student expenditures would rise by 2020 to the values registered in 1998 in the Southeast region. This alternative would cause the ratio of basic education expenditures to GDP to remain at current levels through most of the current decade, gradually declining in the next decade. Alternative scenarios assume that Maranhao's repetition and dropout rates would gradually fall, reaching half the 1999 levels in 2020. This would cause a more dramatic decrease in primary education enrollment, more than compensated for by higher enrollment in lower and upper secondary education. This second set of enrollment projections yields, with the assumption of constant per student expenditures (scenario Ab), a somewhat lower decline in the ratio of basic education expenditures to GDP. State government expenses, in particular, would not fall as much as in the previous scenario. Raising per student expenditures to Chilean levels (scenario Bb) would become even more difficult with lower repetition and dropout rates. The alternative of raising unit expenditures to 1998 Southeast levels (scenario Cb) would, in turn, mean that state and municipal expenditures for basic education would stay constant at 2000 levels. Paraf'ba Keeping repetition and dropout rates constant at 1999 levels, enrollment in Paraf'ba's basic education levels out at around one million students until 2005, declining steadily after that, and reaching an estimated 807,000 students in 2020. Primary education 72 enrollment probably peaked in 1998. Lower secondary enrollment is expected to peak in 2004, and in upper secondary education in 2009. The distribution of enrollment among primary, lower and upper secondary education would change from the 1998 figures of 63.6, 26.6 and 9.8 percent, respectively, to 46.9, 33.0 and 20.1 percent in 2020. In scenario (Aa) with constant per student state and municipal education expenditures and efficiency levels, public expenditures on primary and secondary education would amount to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2020, or less than half the level estimated for 2000. Because the municipalities have a bigger role in primary education and the state in secondary education, the major reduction in basic education expenditures would accrue to municipal governments. In this scenario, even under moderate assumptions about state GDP growth, there is room to improve the quality of education in Paraiba if a decision were made to spend more on each student. If Paraiba sets as a target to raise per student expenditures to Chile's 2000 level by the year 2020 (scenario Ba), expenditures would have to rise beyond reasonable levels, more than doubling as a ratio to GDP. The largest rise in expenditures would occur in primary education, despite the substantial decline in enrollment, reflecting the fact that in Paraiba per-student expenditures are much lower than those in Chile. Under these assumptions, state expenditures as a share of GDP would be I percentage point higher than municipal expenditures. An intermediate option for Parafba would be to raise per-student expenditures to the level registered in the Southeast region in 1998 (scenario Ca). This would cause fiscal expenditures to stay approximately constant as a percentage of GDP until the end of this decade, although the ratio of state government expenditures to GDP would have to increase. This suggests that with the decline in enrollment in primary education, the municipalities could take responsibility for a larger share of these students and still raise the quality of their education, without the need to expand the amount of resources allocated (as a percentage of GDP) to basic education. In the 2010-2020 decade, as enrollment is expected to fall in all education levels, quality could be improved at a faster pace, increasing per-student expenditures in 2020 by an additional 25 percent compared to the Southeast Region levels, while keeping constant the ratio of education expenditures to GDP. Assuming that repetition and dropout rates gradually decline, reaching half their 1999 levels in the year 2020, enrollment would stay approximately constant at one million students until late in this decade, then declining by 15 percent by 2020. Enrollment would decline faster and more substantially in primary education. Enrollment in lower- secondary education would peak in the middle of this decade, while in upper secondary it would do so at the end of this decade. Under these assumptions, the share of primary education in total enrollment would decline substantially to 37.7 percent in 2020, while those of lower and upper secondary education would reach 35.9 and 26.4 percent, respectively. 73 With per-student expenditures kept constant at 1998 levels (scenario Ab), the improvement in efficiency would lead to a less dramatic decline in expenditures on basic education. This would be particularly true in the case of the state government for which the decline would amount to 0.9 percent of GDP, as opposed to a contraction twice as large in municipal expenses. Because more students would be attending school under this scenario, the difference would be concentrated in the more expensive secondary education. Raising per-student expenditures to Chilean levels (scenario Bb) would be even more difficult to attain under increased efficiency levels. On the other hand, a strategy to raise unit expenditures in Paraiba to Southeast Region levels (scenario Cb) becomes even more reasonable, implying only a small rise in state plus municipal expenditures on basic education until 2007, returning to 2000 levels by 2010, and still leaving room for a more ambitious expansion in the following decade. The transfer of all primary education students to the municipalities, so as to accommodate the expected increase in state expenditures with secondary education, would become even more crucial. Pernambuco Keeping repetition and dropout rates constant at 1999 levels, total enrollment in basic education is projected to peak in Pernambuco in 2003. For primary education, enrollment already peaked in 1998, while in lower-secondary education enrollment is still rising, with a maximum expected for 2003. In upper-secondary education, enrollment is projected to peak in 2008. With these trends, the shares of primary, lower and upper secondary education would be of 45.7, 33.6 and 20.7 percent in 2020, not dramatically different from their 2001 values. In scenario (Aa), assuming per student expenditures in Pemambuco stay at their 1998 levels in 2000 prices, the fiscal burden of basic education to municipal and state governments would decline almost continuously in the next two decades. Starting from similar aggregate expenditure levels, municipalities and the state would experience almost equal declines. Therefore, per-student expenditures could be increased in the next years without increasing the ratio of basic education expenditures to GDP. Bringing per-student expenditures to Chilean 2000 levels by 2020 (scenario Ba) would require more than doubling expenditures on basic education as a ratio to GDP. Because Pernambuco spends relatively little on public education, this strategy should not be quickly discarded. An intermediate target would be to bring per-student expenditure to the level reached by the Southeast Region (scenario Ca). This would entail a relatively stable ratio of education expenditures to GDP until 2006, and gradual decline after that. It could be an interesting medium-term strategy for a fiscally conservative government to move into a more aggressive program later in the decade. If repetition and dropout rates fall until reaching half their 1999 values in 2020, enrollment in primary education would fall more substantially than earlier predicted, declining 31 percent between 2001 and 2020. Enrollment in lower-secondary education would peak in 2004, then fall 15 percent by 2020. In upper-secondary education, 74 enrollment would peak in 2010, and fall slowly after that. Assuming constant per-student expenditures (scenario Ab), this would cause the ratio of municipal education expenditures to GDP to decline even more sharply than when repetition and dropout rates were assumed constant, whereas the ratio of state education expenditures to GDP, although still declining, would not fall as much. The sum of state and municipal expenditures would decline almost as much as in the previous scenario. Pursuing a strategy to reach Chilean per-student expenditure levels in 2020 (scenario Bb) would require the same large expansion in the rate of expenditures to GDP that was observed in the previous scenario. However, the state would have to answer for 60 percent of the expansion, against 40 percent for the municipalities. A rise in per-student expenditures by 2020 to the level of the Southeast Region (scenario Cb) would cause state expenditures to stay almost constant, as a ratio to GDP, throughout the projection period, while municipal expenditures would fall by almost a third, bringing down total non-federal public expenditures on basic education. This confirms the conclusion that (if efficiency improves) it would be advisable to shift at least part of the students in primary and lower-secondary schools to municipal facilities, balancing the fiscal implications of enrollment trends. Rio de Janeiro Assuming student transition rates stay constant at 1999 levels, basic education enrollment in Rio de Janeiro is projected to remain roughly stable during this decade, slowly declining in 2010-2020. Similar patterns are projected for the three levels of education. In primary education, enrollment probably peaked in 1999. In lower-secondary education, enrollment should stay roughly constant until 2007, when it should start to fall slowly. In upper-secondary education, enrollment will probably peak in 2002. As a consequence, the distribution of enrollment by level of education would stay roughly constant during the forecast period. The first simulation (scenario Aa) assumes that per-student expenditures would stay constant at 1998 levels (adjusted for 2000 prices) and be the same for state and municipal governments. In this case, expenditures on basic education would decline from an estimated 2.0 percent of GDP in 2000 to 1.0 percent in 2020. The decline would be continuous and the same at municipal and state levels. These projections indicate that state and municipal per student spending in basic education could be doubled in ihe next 20 years without compromising fiscal discipline. Given that the state spends comparatively little, as a ratio to GDP, on basic education, it may want to consider pursuing even more aggressive targets in this period. If Rio de Janeiro chooses to gradually increase per student expenditures to reach Chilean levels by year 2020 (scenario Ba), aggregate expenditures on basic education would reach 2.6 percent of GDP, still to be split equally by the state and municipal governments. A more aggressive strategy would entail bringing per student expenditures to Korean levels by year 2020 (scenario Da). In this case, aggregate expenditures would rise to 3.3 75 percent of GDP, and the impact on the state government (an extra 0.8 percent of GDP) would be somewhat larger than on the municipalities (an extra 0.6 percent of GDP). Total enrollment projections in basic education would not change much if repetition and dropout rates decline until reaching half their 1999 levels in year 2020. Enrollment would still have peaked in 2002, and its level in 2020 would be a mere 1.7 percent higher than in the previous scenario. There would be, however, a major change in the distribution of enrollment among the three education levels. Primary education enrollment would be substantially lower; lower-secondary education enrollment would be somewhat higher; and enrollment would be much higher in upper-secondary education. Given the assumptions regarding the distribution of students among the four school systems, this improvement in efficiency would cause the share of municipal schools in total primary education enrollment to fall dramatically. In upper-secondary education, the share of state schools would rise, while the upper-secondary education share of federal, municipal and private schools would fall. Assuming-per student expenditures to remain constant at their 1998 level, lower repetition and dropout rates would not change the projections for aggregate state and municipal expenditures with basic education, which would still decline to 1.0 percent of GDP in 2020, down from 2.0 percent in 2000. However, 60 percent of the decline in the ratio of expenditures to GDP would accrue to municipal governments, with the remaining 40 percent going to the state government. Aggregate expenditure projections would not change if per student expenditures rose continuously until reaching 2000 Chilean levels in 2020 (scenario Bb). However, almost all the increase in expenditures, as a ratio to GDP, would fall on the state accounts, whereas municipal expenditures would barely change. Pursuing Korean levels of per student expenditures (scenario Db) would be even more stressful for state government finances, and would also require that municipal governments redistribute some of their resources toward basic education. Most of the increase in aggregate expenditures would take place in the 2000-2010 decade. In the following decade, the increase in per student expenditure would be compensated for by the decline in enrollment and by GDP growth, leaving the ratio of aggregate expenditures to GDP approximately constant. Aggregate results of these simulations are summarized below. 76 Table 22. Relation Between Share of Education Expenditure to GDP under Different Scenarios -; -- - . .Consrant'repetinon and Deelining repetiuon and' Scenaros . , :. dropu rakes. --.- - dropout r- b r -a - : - , MA '.PA PE Ri NIA PA PE RJ- Share of GDP in 2000 (%): 8.7 9.6 3.7 3.0 8.7 9.6 3.7 3.0 Scenario A: constant per-student expenditure at 2000 levels. Estimated Share of GDP in 2020 (%): 3.6 2.4 1.4 1.0 4.1 2.6 1.5 1.0 Scenario B- per-student expenditures increase to Chilean levels. Estimated Share of GDP in 2020 (%): 20.3 11.7 7.5 2.6 22.6 12.4 8.0 2.6 Scenario C: per-student expenditures increase to the average level of Brazilian Southeastern Region. Estimated Share of GDP in 2010(%): 6.7 3.9 2.3 n.a. 7.5 4.1 2.4 n.a. Scenario D: per-student expenditures increase to Korean levels. Estimated Share of GDP in 2010 (%): _ _ 3.3 _ 3.6 Source World Bank estimates a/ Constant efficient (transition rates) at 1999 levels b/ Greater efficiency (transition rates improve) as repetition and dropout rates gradually decline until they fall to half the 1999 level by 2020 c/ MA = Maranhlo; PA = Parafba, PE = Pemambuco, and RJ = Rio de Janeiro 5. Conclusions The study produced a number of relevant findings. First, non-federal education and culture expenditures vary considerably as a ratio to GDP, over time and across states. In 1996-2000 they ranged around 7.1 percent in Paraiba, 6.7 percent in Maranhao, 3.4 percent in Pemambuco, and 3.0 percent in Rio de Janeiro. As a rule, municipal governments answer for between a fourth and a half of these expenditures, and in the four states analyzed, their participation peaked in 2000, probably due to the municipal elections taking place that year. Estimates derived by INEP for all non-federal education expenditures in 1997-98 suggest that these may be higher than suggested above. Second, a large share of these expenditures is used to pay pensions. In 1997-98, average non-federal pension expenditures in education as a ratio to GDP, equaled 2.8 percent in Maranhao, 3.9 percent in Parafba, 2.0 percent in Pernambuco and 2.3 percent of GDP in Rio de Janeiro, compared to 2.3 percent in the Northeast, 1.5 percent in the Southeast and 1.8 percent in Brazil. Third, 1998 per capita non-federal education expenditures, net of pensions, reached $164, $188, $147 and $200, in Maranhao, Paraiba, Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, 77 respectively, measured in 1999 PPP prices, including higher education expenditures. The distribution of non-federal expenditures by education level was roughly similar in all cases, with approximately 81 percent going to basic education in 1998. Fourth, a large share of the teachers in state and municipal schools lack university degrees. The situation in upper secondary education is relatively better, but in lower- secondary education, particularly in municipal school systems, serious deficiencies persist in some states with respect to the requirements imposed by Law 9394. Maranhao is the worst case with respect to teacher qualifications. Fifth, a high proportion of the schools in the four states have access to water and electricity. The situation is less satisfactory regarding libraries, sport fields and especially science and computer laboratories, and internet access. State and especially municipal schools are in a considerably worse situation compared to private and federal schools. Sixth, in Maranhao, total enrollment in basic education is expected to decline in the next two decades, especially if repetition and dropout rates fall. Most of this decline would take place in primary education, with a rise in the shares of lower and, especially, upper secondary education in total enrollment. In Paraiba and Pernambuco, enrollment is expected to remain level until the second half of this decade, declining after that. Primary education enrollment will continue to fall, while enrollment in secondary education will initially rise, especially if repetition and dropout rates fall, and then decline. In Rio de Janeiro, total enrollment should stay almost constant, with only a gradual decline during the forecast period. Seventh, in the four states analyzed, enrollment dynamics will create an opportunity to increase per-student expenditures, particularly if system efficiency improves. These opportunities will be more pronounced in the 2010-2020 decade, but fiscally conservative governments may pursue an improvement in the quality of education still in this decade, as long as GDP and fiscal revenues grow at a moderate pace. Maranhao, Parafba and Pernambuco could set a target of raising per-student expenditures to 1998 Southeast levels in 2020, and even to pursue a somewhat more ambitious increase in the following decade. For Rio de Janeiro, a reasonable target would be to increase per-student expenditures to 2000 Chilean levels. In all cases, such a strategy should include the transfer of some of the state schools to the municipalities, possibly encompassing all primary education. This would work well because the municipalities should benefit the most from the substantial decline in primary education enrollment, which has already started and is expected to continue in the next two decades. 78 VII. General Conclusions and Recommendations Despite the substantial increase in access to education in Brazil in the last decade -- most children attend school today -- it is clear that major challenges remain to complete the education agenda in this study's selected states. This conclusions of this study indicate that education as a poverty-reduction instrument depends not only on the availability and quality of schools and teachers, but also on support from family life and the involvement of neighborhoods. School relevance and quality of education are critical factors for reaching the more vulnerable groups and enabling them to acquire new skills and expand their knowledge. To succeed with these more vulnerable groups, Government policies should include both demand and supply side interventions. To continue progress in the education agenda in the selected states, with adjustments for each state but no major differences, Government needs to focus on educational policies: (i) to improve, access to equitable educational opportunities for selected groups: rural populations, quilombos, indigenous, the disabled and low-income groups, as well as young adults previously denied educational opportunities; (ii) to reform education management by redefining the role of central agencies in supporting autonomous schools and quality improvements; and (iii) to increase funding for education by using savings from greater efficiency in the provision of education services, by reallocating resources from other areas of public expenditure, and by mobilizing private sector financing. The conclusions of each part of this study present specific findings and recommendations. These are summarized in the following major policy recommendations that might be applied in designing the next phase of education interventions in the selected states to achieve the equity goals of education for disadvantaged groups: (a) To include the excluded by adopting educational approaches better adapted to cultural preferences, gender, and income level of students to facilitate social inclusion and access to more effective educational programs. Access to education has increased in all selected states, but equity continues to be a major issue for the poor and for girls in rural areas. Inequitable access is more common in the Northeast states than in Rio de Janeiro, and becomes more acute in the age 26 and older group. The coverage of preschool education for children 5-6 years old is still quite limited; approximately 80 percent of children below age 5 have never been to school. This is a negative factor that compromises a child's advancement in cognitive and social development. The decision to drop out of school, the most important aspect of education exclusion, is higher in the Northeast states than in Rio de Janeiro, but the figures are very high in all four states (600,000 youngsters) and the probability of dropping out increases significantly from age 12 onward. Parental education and household income are 79 negatively associated with dropout, while youth work and migration are strong contributing factors for exclusion. Reasons for dropping out are different between boys and girls, but age and rural location of those groups are significant factors in explaining exclusion. The results of the study call for the adoption of both demand and supply side policies and interventions to reach vulnerable groups with more effective educational programs. Schools in rural areas have only recently received more attention, and now are on the agenda of the Council of the State Secretariats (CONSED). The role of education in rural areas is considered in the overall strategy for sustainable rural development, which emphasizes the development of human and social capital. The "Rural Development Strategy and Action Plan for LAC"50 calls attention to the need for culturally-aware and gender-sensitive approaches in rural areas to address the pervasive poverty among ethnic minorities. The plan also focuses attention on the increasing role of women in rural society. Both these objectives coincide with the findings of this study. While there is still a need to increase access to education in rural areas, in both urban and rural areas educational quality and curriculum relevance are major concerns. The rural schools surveyed in this study show that low teacher qualification, poor community participation, and low relevance of course content are major factors impeding inclusion. To address these problems, education policies should focus on the characteristics of rural schools, particularly their isolation, unqualified teachers, over aged students, and paucity of teaching support systems. Although the ongoing evaluation of the Escola Ativa model5' adopted by the Fundescola for rural schools is not yet complete, preliminary results show promise. While this experience seems to be successful, there is a continuing need to ensure institutional sustainability by increasing the capacity of municipal school systems. (b) To establish integrated policies to addlress the educational needs of young aduits previously denied educational opportunities. This group (ages 15 to 24) represents 20.1 percent of the total population, and its absolute numbers have increased substantially in recent decades. Those in school are not acquiring the correct skills for the labor market and are unable to continue expanding their knowledge as required by the new dynamics of globalization and advancing technology. Employment data show that higher levels of education are now required to avoid adverse labor market experiences. Education for young adults has only recently become an area of concern for policymakers. Policies for addressing the problem should not be limited to the educational arena. Effective policies should be integrated to offer young adults the opportunity to upgrade their job skills through training programs and at the same time to improve their ability to complete basic education. More studies should be undertaken to define the methodologies and training programs that can effectively increase the quality 50 See Rural Development Strategy and Action Plan for Latin America and the Caribbean Region. Volume 1: Main Report, World Bank, October 2001. 5 Rural School model adopted from the Esculea Nueva model of Colombia 80 of the teaching-learning process of this clientele, including better preparation of teachers working with this population. (c) To establish more autonomous schools to increase efficiency, quality, and equity in education. The study suggests that school autonomy, besides being part of the political aspiration for democracy, contributes to increasing school efficiency and in some cases is responsible for improving educational effectiveness. This seems more likely to happen when schools are able to use instructional inputs based on local school and community conditions; schools tend to be more accountable for their performance when parents and community members participate in their governance. In addition, more effective use of instructional inputs results from autonomous institutions with authority to continually reallocate their resources. The review of school autonomy models presented in this study indicates that to be successful it is crucial: (i) to define clear roles and responsibilities for all those involved in the process at the central, regional and local levels; (ii) to establish legal, financial, and management mechanisms to boost school accountability; and (iii) to provide continuous training programs for all those involved in the school autonomy strategies to ensure that the process is sustainable. These lessons might also apply to other states in Brazil where school autonomy strategies are still weak or nonexistent. (d) Enrollment trends should create a window of opportunity to improve education quality through increased spending per student, but care should be exercised to guarantee that resources are not squared on higher pensions or empty education initiatives. The study presents different scenarios for financing the reforms needed in the selected states. Although a large share of government expenditures is devoted to paying pensions in all the states, enrollment dynamics will create an opportunity to increase per student expenditures, particularly if system efficiency improves. The analysis of this part of the study clearly calls for more attention to the adoption of education strategies for improving efficiency and effectiveness at all levels of education. This involves a wide range of education decisions in several areas, such as the adoption of educational methodologies to increase access, the adoption of more efficient management of schools and education agencies, and a sharper definition of education personnel policies, both in terms of the necessary quality and the appropriate quantity, to avoid wasting resources and to maximize effectiveness. 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