42912 v 6 APPENDIX 5. COSTS AND FINANCING OF SECONDARY EDUCATION IN ZAMBIA: A SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS Paul Bennell with Gideon Bulwani and Moses Musikanga INTRODUCTION This paper reviews secondary education in Zambia.1 After outlining the policy context for the education sector as a whole and secondary educa- tion in particular, the paper analyses enrollments and flows of pupils over the recent past disaggregated by gender, and profiles repetition, dropout, and completion rates. Subsequent sections explore teachers and teacher deployment including qualification profiles; attrition; the output of the training system; teacher-class, PTRs, and teaching loads; the form of the curriculum and the availability of learning materials; and indicators of learning achievement. This leads to analysis of the funding system, unit costs, expenditure patterns, fees, and other user costs. These are linked to analysis of future supply and demand for school places and their budgetary implications. This analysis is based on interviews with directors of all key depart- ments in the Ministry of Education (MoE) (Administration and Human Resources, Planning and Information, Curriculum and Standards, Teacher Education, and Specialist Services) as well as senior officers and consultants responsible for EMIS, finance, Education Boards, statistics, and strategic planning and for Lusaka Province. Other interviews were also conducted with officials at the Examinations Council of Zambia, the Education Secretariat of the Catholic Church, selected teacher unions, the Ministry of Finance. A sample of nine upper-basic/open sec- ondary and nine high schools were visited in Lusaka and Kafue (urban and periurban areas) and Chongwe District (rural area). Interviews were 1 2 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted with the head teacher at each school focusing on cost and funding issues and teacher utilization. A questionnaire was administered to 460 pupils in randomly selected classes in grade 9 (upper-basic) and grade 11 (high school) in 14 schools. Key government reports were reviewed and data from the School Annual Survey analyzed. OVERVIEW Growth in access to upper-basic and high school enrollments has been limited during the last decade, constrained by the increasing direct costs of schooling, deepening poverty, and limited job opportunities. Gender disparities in access to secondary education are relatively small. Pupils at high schools come from relatively wealthy households and a majority of their parents have received post-secondary education. Improving access for the relatively poor and those from less educated households remains a major challenge. The recent emphasis on middle-basic education (grades 1­7) has meant that much-needed reforms in the high school and tertiary educa- tion have not been implemented. The share of public expenditure allo- cated to postbasic education fell significantly during the late 1990s, which has forced high schools to become increasingly financially autonomous. Much higher fees have restricted further access to high schools for the large majority of households. The ongoing restructuring of secondary education provision (particularly the incorporation of lower secondary into basic education) also has major implications. There are widespread concerns about the quality and relevance of both core subjects and electives for grades 8­9 and grades 10­12. The curricula have not been comprehensively revised since 1986. The competence, commitment, and utilization of secondary school teachers is also prob- lematic. Despite sizeable increases in teacher pay since 1999, there is still no progressive career structure with significant promotion prospects for teachers. Morale at one-third of the schools surveyed was poor. Large numbers of teachers rely very heavily on secondary income earned from Academic Production Units (APUs) and open classes, private tuition, and other nonschool activities. Encouragingly, teacher mortality rates have declined by almost a half since 1997 and overall levels of teacher attrition are only around 2 percent. Teacher absenteeism is also not serious. Grade 9 pass rates at urban government schools are twice as high as at rural schools. Overall pass rates have remained within a narrow range since 1996. There has been no noticeable trend in school certificate pass rates among regular pupils attending high schools since the mid-1990s. Appendix 5 · 3 The aggregate pass rate for boys was six percentage points higher than for girls in 2002. This gap is highest in Lusaka Province. Examination per- formance is much better at grant-aided and private schools. Rural schools have appreciably lower pass rates. Girls-only schools do exceptionally well, regardless of ownership and location. It is widely reported that the pass rates among APU pupils in both these examinations are considerably lower than among regular pupils. This is not surprising given that these pupils have not done as well academically as regular pupils, come from the less well-educated households, and the duration of their school day is considerably shorter. Repetition and dropout rates are quite low and there is no appreciable upward trend in either rate. Although class sizes at high schools are large, PTRs are generally very low and have fallen since the late 1990s. Large classes and low PTRs in high schools result in relatively high teacher- class ratios. According to EMIS data, the mean number of periods taught per week is around 20 at both urban and rural high schools, but only 16­17 at grant-aided schools. However teaching loads at government schools with APU classes are much higher--around 35 periods per week. The results of the school survey indicate that, while most teachers at gov- ernment high schools teach around 25­27 periods during the morning session, the workloads of upper-basic teachers are much lower. The dis- persion in the teaching loads becomes very marked when APU afternoon classes are included. Unit costs2 in the education sector in 2002 are estimated to be as fol- lows: middle-basic $26, upper-basic $56, high school $60, teacher educa- tion $339, and university $1,303. The differential between primary/basic and secondary school unit costs is low by sub-Saharan African standards mainly because there was, until April 2003, little difference in teacher's salaries in basic and secondary schools. Costs increased very appreciably in 2001 as a result of salary awards. Salaries accounted for 91 percent of total government expenditure at middle-basic schools in 2001. The cor- responding figures for upper-basic and high school are 83 percent and 74 percent respectively. Nonsalary unit costs at government high schools in urban areas were one-third higher than in rural areas. Unit costs at boarding high schools were four to five times higher than at day schools. However, these mean figures conceal wide dispersion in unit costs among schools of the same type. There also seems little consistent relationship between nonsalary unit costs and school examination performance. National accounts do not separate the expenditure for upper-basic edu- cation. In the absence of adequate government funding, both upper-basic 4 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa and high schools have become heavily reliant on fee and other nonbudget income to meet nonsalary expenditure costs. According to the Unit Cost Study, in 2001, private sources of income accounted for 48 percent and 33 percent of total expenditure at government urban and rural high schools respectively. The corresponding figures for grant-aided high schools are 52 percent and 57 percent (OPM 2002). By regional standards, public expenditure on education in Zambia as a percentage of gross domestic product is low--only 2.9 percent in 2002, although this has increased from 2.3 percent in 1996. Education accounted for 4.1 percent of GDP in 2002 (including external support). Public expenditure on education has increased from 14 percent of the disposable budget in 1996 to 21 percent in 2002 and is rising.3 In 2000 the proportion of the budget allocated to different school levels was: middle-basic 63.5 percent, upper-basic 12.4 percent, and high schools 7.1 percent. The government has a target allocation of 19 percent of the total discretionary budget for education. In 2001 fees at government urban and rural basic schools (with upper- basic grades) averaged K 35,000 and K 16,000 respectively. Open school/APU fees for grades 8 and 9 were well over double at urban schools. The abolition of user fees for middle-basic education in early 2002 has had a major impact on schools. The loss of income has only been partially made up by government grants. Consequently, fee income from upper-basic pupils has become critically important for the overall financing of basic schools as a whole. For most schools, fee income falls short of expectations because of the large proportions of pupils who are "defaulters." Rapidly increasing fees have increased the numbers of pupils who obtain places at high schools but are unable to take them up. APU pupils pay their fees more regularly because this is de facto private education and schools are free to expel defaulters. High schools typically receive less than 10 percent of the fee income from APU classes. The remainder is used exclusively for teacher remuneration. There is little additional income generation, especially at basic schools. The MoE has developed a very comprehensive and detailed strategic plan for the education sector for the five-year period 2003­07. The plan contains a wide array of policy initiatives with regard to access and equity, quality and relevance, and efficiency and management. This plan has ambitious enrollment targets for both upper-basic and high school edu- cation that need to be carefully examined since demand constraints are likely to be substantial. The scope for increased enrollment at both upper- basic and high schools is fairly limited without substantial reductions in Appendix 5 · 5 levels of cost recovery. It is not clear what effect the abolition of users fees for primary (middle-basic) education in early 2002 will have on enroll- ments or on direct costs. A key objective of the Strategic Plan is to improve the utilization of teachers and other resources. It is planned to increase average teaching loads by around 50 percent and also to increase the mean class size in upper-basic schools from 40 to 45. Other cost savings are to use cheaper construction methods, lower-cost textbooks and other learning materials, and reduce boarding places. Improved provision of textbooks and other learning materials and the provision of bursaries are also expected to improve learning outcomes. The projected increases in PTRs are very size- able and therefore may well not be attainable. Poorly paid teachers will be required to increase their teaching loads by around 50 percent. Another major issue is small enrollments at a large proportion of upper-basic and high schools enrollments. The attainment of the goals and targets of the Strategic Plan will depend on resource availability. Total recurrent expenditure on education will need to grow, on average, at 7.5 percent per year (in 2001 constant prices) between 2003 and 2007 in order to meet enrollment and input targets. Given recent levels of domestic resource commitments to educa- tion, this is very optimistic. THE POLICY ENVIRONMENT At independence in 1964, Zambia was a relatively prosperous country with a per capita income of $1,200. Economic and social development was rapid. Since the mid-1970s, the economic and social situation has deteriorated, most obviously as a result of the collapse of the price of the country's main export, copper. Zambia is now ranked 153 out of the 173 poorest nations in the world. Although it is now benefiting from the HIPC initiative, about 80 percent of the population live in abject poverty. Combating poverty and underdevelopment are the major challenges for Zambia. In responding to these challenges, Zambia's Poverty Reduc- tion Strategy Paper (PRSP) focuses on education, health, and HIV/AIDS as key areas for increased social investment. The consequences of endemic poverty manifest themselves in the education sector in various ways, most notably low enrollments, high dropout rates, poor learning outcomes, and, more generally, poor quality of education provision at both basic and high schools. Although the government has identified the education sector as a top priority in addressing poverty in the country, its major 6 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa challenge is how to achieve improvements in these areas given the current state of school infrastructure, inadequate teaching staff, very limited educational materials, and severe financial constraints. The current policy framework for education is set out in The National Policy on Education--Educating our Future (NPE), which was published in 1996 and is the third major education policy statement since independ- ence. The NPE addresses aspects of efficient and cost-effective education provision and management. The main policy thrusts of the NPE are increased and more equitable access to basic and postbasic education (both with respect to gender and vulnerable groups), improving the learning environment through the provision of necessary materials, and ensuring an adequate supply of well-qualified and motivated teaching staff. The integration of HIV and AIDS into education management and curriculum at all levels is another high priority. In order to support this, the policy encourages partnerships with communities, the private sector, and other nongovernmental organizations. Basic education has been supported through the Basic Education Sub- Sector Investment Programme (BESSIP) initiated by the MoE in 1999 in collaboration with its development partners. The main focus of BESSIP has been to increase access, retention, and learning achievements in line with Education for All commitments. BESSIP had its own separate administrative and financial arrangements during the first phase up to 2002. The total BESSIP budget is $340 million, half of which is funded by government. Under the current phase, the intention is to move rap- idly towards to a full sector development program with basket funding by the major donor partners. The goal for the high school subsector is to enable every pupil to become a well-educated person who is useful to society and who is ade- quately prepared for the furtherance of his or her education or for becoming a self-supporting worker. The intention is to increase access to high school education and provide equal opportunities to all--including out-of-school children, particularly girls and vulnerable children--and improve quality and efficiency in education management. To achieve this, MoE plans to carry out subsector reforms that will encourage the development of other modes of education delivery sys- tems, including open learning, evening classes, and APUs (see below); infrastructure expansion; greater stakeholder participation through decentralization of education management; and greater cost-sharing. Communities will be encouraged to maintain strong involvement in schools through development of "social contracts" detailing the different support mechanisms at grades 8­9 and 10­12. Appendix 5 · 7 Other key aspects of the new policy include review of the high school curriculum to improve its quality and relevance. Efforts to strengthen the high school curriculum will focus on improving mathematics and sci- ences and developing technology, practical, and business and commer- cial programs in order to prepare individuals needed by higher education and industry. The curriculum will cover education for employment by incorporating subject such as preparation for work, work experience, entrepreneurship education, and other aspects of personal development. The strong emphasis on basic education during the last five years has had major implications for the secondary education subsector. The "poli- cies regarding high schools are weak. . . . The high school level has not received attention in terms of expansion, rehabilitation, educational mate- rial support, or curriculum review" (Situational Analysis 2003, p. 8). As the Strategic Plan (2003) points out, "the emphasis on basic education has meant that reforms needed in high school and tertiary education have not been implemented." In addition, it is generally recognised that expanding basic education enrollment increases demand for the next level, while "even a slow-developing economy requires higher order skills provided by post-basic education. The latter also provides the skills and competencies needed for self-employment and enterprise" (MoE 2003, p. 9). The share of public expenditure allocated to postbasic education fell significantly during the late 1990s, which has forced high schools to become increasingly financially autonomous. Much higher fees have further restricted access to high schools for the large majority of house- holds. De facto privatization has also altered the relationship between both government and grant-aided high schools and the MoE. A major election commitment of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy government was the abolition of all user fees for lower and middle-basic education. Consequently, all fees were abolished in February 2002. However, parents continue to pay quite substantial fees for upper- basic and high school education. Basic schools are increasingly relying on the fee income from grade 8 and 9 classes to fund essential expenditures for the entire school. However, the Strategic Plan notes that the prospects for cost recovery are limited given high poverty levels in the country. Greater efficiency measures can be introduced in upper-basic, high school and tertiary institutions through better utilisation of teaching staff, reduced unit costs in construction and learning materials, and improved school planning and management Increased cost sharing is closely linked with the decentralization of essential services, which is a central objective of the Public Service Reform Programme. However, the Situational Analysis notes that while "cost 8 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa sharing policy has promoted in many cases stronger community, private sector, and NGO participation in education provision, it has raised con- cerns about the reduced access for the poorest sections of the population" (p. 15). Education Boards for high schools and District Education Boards for basic schools have now been established in all nine provinces with wide- ranging responsibilities. The MoE's resource allocation criteria to Boards will take into account the particular needs of remote rural areas. THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM The education reforms of 1977 introduced a new school structure compris- ing seven years of primary school (grades 1­7) and five years of secondary schools, subdivided into two years of lower secondary (grades 8­9) and three years of upper secondary (grades 10­12). In 1996 the NPE replaced this structure by nine years of universal basic education followed by three years of high school. The basic education cycle is currently subdivided into lower basic (grades 1­4), middle-basic (grades 5­7), and upper-basic cycles (grades 8 and 9). All high schools have been instructed to phase out grade 8 and 9 classes, which will become the sole responsibility of basic schools. The incorporation of lower secondary into basic education has major implications for secondary education in Zambia. Basic schools are faced with the daunting task of providing primary education (with class teachers) as well as lower-secondary education (with subject teachers). The overall goal of free universal basic education of nine years may result in expan- sion of enrollments in grades 8 and 9 if direct costs are controlled. This could lead to higher demand for high school education. The intention is to phase out grade 8 and 9 classes in high schools. However, the 50 or so grant-aided high schools have serious reservations about the restructuring of secondary education and continue to offer lower-secondary education. Their main concerns are that most basic schools do not have the capacity to offer lower-secondary education of a minimum acceptable quality and they strongly believe that it is essential that children should attend the same secondary school for at least five years. It remains to be seen whether the grant-aided schools have sufficient autonomy and political influence to continue to defer the implementation of the new reforms. It is clear though that pervasive parental and pupil con- cerns about the quality of upper-basic schools will fuel demand for private sector provision of both lower- and upper-secondary education. More than one-third of all government high schools have what are known as APUs. Since 1996 schools with APUs enroll additional pupils who fail to find normal places in government schools. APUs operate with Appendix 5 · 9 afternoon sessions that typically run from 1330 to 1700 hours. The pupils study for the same national examinations as other pupils, but pay con- siderably higher fees. Most of the APU fee income is used to supplement the salaries of APU teachers who participate on a voluntary basis. Thus, although officially sanctioned and regulated by the MoE, APUs are a form of private education provision that benefits from public subsidy in terms of space and facilities. In addition, there are basic schools that do not have an officially regis- tered and resourced upper-basic cycle, but offer grade 8 and 9 classes on an unofficial basis. These schools are referred to as "open secondary schools." Unlike the APUs in high schools, these classes are usually taught in the morning along with grades 1­7, and the participating teachers receive additional salary supplementation. ENROLLMENT PATTERNS In 2002 there were 919 upper-basic and 312 high schools. While almost all basic schools are government owned, a sizeable proportion of high schools are either grant-aided religious schools (16 percent) or fully inde- pendent private schools (18 percent). Out of a total of 6,458 basic schools, 919 (14.2 percent) had upper-basic grades (see table A5.1). Table A5.1 Upper-basic and High Schools, 2002 High schools Upper-basic Grade 8­12 Grade 10­12 Grade 8­9 Grade 8­9 Total Urban Government 72 12 7 278 369 Grant-aided 15 0 0 5 20 Private 40 5 0 7 52 Subtotal 127 17 9 292 445 Rural Government 95 13 6 609 723 Grant-aided 32 1 1 6 40 Private 9 2 0 14 25 Subtotal 136 16 7 629 788 Total Government 167 25 13 887 1092 Grant-aided 47 1 1 11 60 Private 49 7 2 21 79 All 263 33 16 919 1231 Source: EMIS. Note: Schools with zero enrollments recorded have not been included. 10 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa The main churches are responsible for almost all of the 50 grant-aided high schools. With regard to academic performance, these are among the best schools in the country. The private sector is small compared to other countries in the region with only 79 schools in 2002 (52 urban and 25 rural). High schools are roughly equally divided between urban and rural locations, but two-thirds of upper-basic schools are in rural areas. A large majority of the grant-aided high schools are also rural-based. By the end of 2002, barely 10 percent of high schools had fully imple- mented the MoE's policy of offering only grades 10­12. This was partly because it will take two years to phase out the upper-basic grades in gov- ernment high schools. However, grant-aided high schools do not want to shed grades 8 and 9. Enrollments in upper-basic schools only average 100 pupils in rural areas and 200 in urban areas, which raises concerns about the cost- effectiveness of upper-basic education as currently constituted. High schools also have quite small enrollments: In 2002, average enroll- ments at government high schools were only 840 and 480 in urban and rural areas respectively. Grant-aided and private schools are smaller still. Nearly 60 percent of government high schools in rural areas have fewer than 500 pupils and almost 60 percent of upper-basic schools in rural have less than 100 pupils (see table A5.2). Around 180,000 pupils were enrolled in normal grade 8 and 9 classes in 2002. Upper-basic schools accounted for two-thirds of these enrollments (tables A5.3 and A5.4). MoE data indicates that grade 8 and 9 enroll- ments were as high as 197,000 in 1997, but then fell to between 165,000 and 170,000 in 1998 and 1999. However, according to Examination Table A5.2 Average Enrollments by Type of School, 2002 High school Upper-basic Rural Urban Rural Urban Government 476 841 101 200 Grant-aided 425 576 108 123 Private 298 213 70 42 Co-educational 533 825 -- -- Boys only 418 666 -- -- Girls only 450 596 -- -- Day 371 617 102 194 Boarding 525 651 35 59 Day/boarding 519 643 117 86 Source: EMIS. Appendix 5 · 11 Table A5.3 Total Grade 8 and 9 Enrollments at Upper-Basic Schools, 2002 (`000) Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Total Urban 54 1 1 56 Rural 61 3 0.2 64 Total 115 4 1.2 120.2 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Total Urban 53 0.5 0.8 54.3 Rural 64 0 0 64 Total 117 0.5 0.8 118.3 Attendance Day Boarding Both Total Urban 54 0.3 0.6 54.9 Rural 62 0.2 2 64.2 Total 116 0.5 2.6 119.1 Source: EMIS. Table A5.4 Total Grade 8 and 9 Enrollments at High Schools, 2002 (`000) Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Total Urban 27 4 4 35 Rural 18 7 1 26 Total 45 11 5 61 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Total Urban 27 3 6 36 Rural 22 1 3 26 Total 49 4 9 62 Attendance Day Boarding Both Total Urban 30 2 3 35 Rural 11 7 7 25 Total 41 9 10 60 Source: EMIS. Council of Zambia (ECZ) records, the annual number of candidates sitting grade 9 examinations remained in the range of 95,000 to 102,000 from 1993 to 2001 (except for 1998), and then increased sharply to 123,000 in 2002 (see table A5.5). One of the main reasons for this has been that the overall number of grade 7 leavers has not changed during the last decade, and in fact declined between 1996 and 1999. Grade 10­12 high school enrollments were 106,000 in 2002 (see table A5.6). Grant-aided and private schools accounted for 11 percent and 8 percent respectively of total enrollments. Around one in five pupils attend single-sex schools. Boarding schools enroll 21,000 pupils and 12 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa mixed day/boarding another 25,000 pupils. High school enrollments in regular classes have increased steadily from around 70,000 in the mid- 1990s. The number of candidates for the School Certificate increased from 22,000 in 1993 to 32,500 in 2002 (see table A5.5). Only 10,000 pupils were enrolled in open classes at upper-basic schools in 2002. Eighty percent of these schools are in urban areas. Only one in ten of upper-basic schools offer APU classes, due to their relatively poor education quality. The MoE has prohibited upper-basic schools from offering APU classes. Table A5.5 Number of Candidates; Grade 7 and 9 School Certificate Examinations, 1995­2002 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Grade 7 Female 78,641 78,699 76,657 73,471 70,093 69,482 77,027 82,189 Male 101,413 100,814 99,125 94,833 89,514 88,113 97,929 105,118 Total 180,054 181,509 175,782 168,304 159,607 159,595 174,956 187,307 Grade 9 Female n.a. 41,551 42,824 51,565 44,861 47,101 47,101 57,000 Male n.a. 54,282 54,827 62,614 52,538 54,954 54,954 66,000 Total 97,385 95,833 97,651 114,179 97,399 102,055 102,055 123,000 School Certificate Female n.a. n.a. n.a. 9,833 10,016 10,415 12,042 12,732 Male n.a. n.a. n.a. 17,611 16,561 16,691 19,008 19,738 Total 25,352 26,922 26,165 27,444 26,577 27,106 31,050 32,470 Source: EMIS. n.a. Not applicable. Table A5.6 Total Grade 10­12 High School Enrollments, 2002 (`000) Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Total Urban 50 4 6 60 Rural 35 8 2 45 Total 85 12 8 105 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Total Urban 45 7 8 60 Rural 38 3 5 46 Total 83 10 13 106 Attendance Day Boarding Both Total Urban 44 5 10 59 Rural 13 16 15 44 Total 57 21 25 103 Source: EMIS. Appendix 5 · 13 Nearly four times as many APU pupils are enrolled at high schools. Government high schools account for 95 percent of these enrollments (see table A5.7). Pent-up demand for high school education resulted in an explosive growth in APU enrollments when the scheme was first intro- duced in 1996. However, faced with mounting concerns about the rapid deterioration in educational quality, especially in the regular (morning) classes, the MoE issued an instruction to all schools (in 1998) to limit APU pupils to no more than one-third of the enrollments of regular classes. As a consequence, APU grade 10­12 enrollments declined from their peak of 126,000 in 1997 to only 22,000 in 2001. In 2002, only 142 high schools (129 government) ran APU classes (46 percent of the total). In overall terms, APU enrollments were 22.6 percent of regular enrollments. The EMIS data indicates that the one-third enrollment rule for APU streams was exceeded in only 28 schools. Some survey schools have interpreted the MoE regulation on APU enrollments by limiting APU classes (rather than enrollments) to one-third of the morning classes. This means that APU classes at these schools are much larger than regular classes. The MoE has mixed feelings about the APU scheme. Its main advan- tages are that it expands access to secondary education, increases student fee income for participating schools, and provides essential salary sup- plementation for poorly paid teachers and thus improves motivation and retention. It also enables schools to regulate fairly closely the secondary income earning activities of teachers. The main criticisms of the scheme are that participating teachers have to work both in the morning and the afternoon with very high teaching loads. Furthermore, it is alleged that Table A5.7 Total APU Enrollments at High Schools, 2002 (`000) Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Total Urban 26 1 0 27 Rural 10 1 0 45 Total 36 2 0 38 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Total Urban 21 3 2 26 Rural 10 1 1 12 Total 31 4 3 38 Attendance Day Boarding Both Total Urban 21 1 3 25 Rural 6 3 3 12 Total 27 4 6 37 Source: EMIS. 14 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa they tend to concentrate more on APU pupils with adverse consequences for teaching quality and learning outcomes in the regular classes. There is almost gender parity in enrollments at government and grant-aided upper-basic schools in urban areas, but girls only account for 41 percent of total enrollments at upper-basic schools in rural areas (see table A5.8). Government high schools have larger gender enrollment dis- parities, especially in the rural areas where females account for only slightly more than one-third of total enrollments. However, at grant- aided and private high schools in both urban and rural areas, there are, in aggregate terms, more female than male pupils. These latter schools cater for children from mainly elite backgrounds. Economic reasons compounded by boy preference probably account for the marked gender disparities at government upper-basic and high schools in rural areas. Nearly 44 percent of grade 9 examination candidates were female in 2002, which is a slight improvement on their share in the mid-1990s. The corresponding figure for the School Certificate examination is con- siderable lower, at only 39 percent, though this is a small improvement on 1998 when the proportion was 36 percent (see table A5.5). ENROLLMENT, PROGRESSION, AND DROPOUT RATES It is estimated that 620,000 children, 30 percent of the school-aged pop- ulation, are not currently enrolled in school, which is the consequence of an "unprecedented decline in enrollment rates as well as high dropout rates" (MoE 2003, p. 7). The Strategic Plan states that the net enrollment rate (NER) for middle basic (grades 1­7) fell from 70.4 percent in 1996 to 65.1 percent in 2001. However, the NER for middle-basic schools was 68.5 percent in 2002. More research is needed in order to understand how effective demand is changing. The official MoE gross enrollment rate (GER) estimates for grades 8 and 9 and grades 10­12 are 37 percent and 15 percent respectively for 2000. The GER for secondary as a whole increased only slightly during Table A5.8 Female Pupils as a Percentage of Total Enrollments, 2002 High schools Upper-basic Urban Rural Urban Rural Government 44.5 37.5 48.6 41.2 Grant-aided 62.5 50.8 48.9 41.3 Private 54.0 54.0 54.3 45.7 Source: EMIS. Appendix 5 · 15 the 1990s--from 23 percent in 1990/91 to 25.5 percent in 1999/00 (UNESCO 2002). However, official enrollment rates are almost certainly underestimates mainly because the population projections on which they are based are not adjusted downwards to take into account the likely significant negative impact of the HIV and AIDS epidemic on pop- ulation growth. Table A5.9 compares the MoE enrollment rate estimates with those from the 2002 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), which are based on a large household survey and are therefore likely to be quite accurate. It is noticeable that the DHS GER is 10 percentage points higher for middle-basic and 7 points higher for secondary education. The secondary GER for rural areas was only 20 percent compared to 56 percent in urban areas (see table A5.10 based on DHS data). The second- ary net enrollment rates for females (age 14­18) were higher than males in both urban and rural locations, but the corresponding GERs are appre- ciably lower. This is probably because dropout rates are higher for girls. Variations in GERs among the nine provinces are very large, ranging from 13.6 percent in Luapula to 53.4 percent in Copperbelt Province. The over- all GER gender gap for secondary was quite small (3 percentage points) with a gender parity index of 0.91. The primary school completion rate is reported to be only 67 percent. "Only half of Grade 7 pupils progress to upper-basic and less than 30 per- cent of this half to high schools" (MoE 2003, p. 16). Progression (or transition) rates calculated by ECZ are presented in table A5.11. The MoE's Table A5.9 GER and NER for Primary and Secondary Education High school Middle Upper- grades Year basic basic 1-0-12 All secondary GERs EMIS 2000 80 37 15 DHS 2002 90.4 32.5 NERs 2000 EMIS 2000 66 n.a. n.a. DHS 2002 67.7 n.a. n.a. 21.7 UNESCO 1990/91 1999/00 All Male Female Total GPI Primary GER 98.7 81.3 76.1 78.7 0.94 NER n.a. 67.2 65.6 66.4 0.98 Secondary GER 23 28.7 22.2 25.5 0.88 NER n.a. 22.5 18.9 20.7 0.84 Source: EMIS, DHS, and UNESCO. n.a. Not applicable. 16 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.10 Secondary School Enrollment Rates, 2002 Gender Background NER GER parity characteristic Male Female Total Male Female Total index Residence Urban 37.4 38.8 38.1 59.3 52.4 55.7 0.88 Rural 12.9 13.2 13.0 21.9 18.1 20.1 0.82 Province Central 14.8 19.0 17.0 28.1 25.8 26.9 0.92 Copperbelt 37.2 37.9 37.6 58.5 48.5 53.4 0.83 Eastern 14.1 16.6 15.3 24.9 27.5 26.1 1.10 Luapula 11.0 5.5 8.3 17.8 9.1 13.6 0.51 Lusaka 29.2 27.2 28.2 50.0 38.3 44.0 0.77 Northern 17.5 22.3 19.6 28.5 28.8 28.6 1.01 North-Western 25.3 22.9 24.2 44.7 29.3 37.6 0.65 Southern 12.7 19.4 15.7 20.8 25.6 23.0 1.23 Western 13.8 12.6 13.2 16.4 17.8 17.1 1.08 Total 20.8 22.8 21.7 33.9 30.9 32.5 0.91 Source: DHS. Table A5.11 Progression Rates, 1996­2002 (Percentages) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Grade 7 to 8 Female 38 37 46 54 54 55 56 Male 32 42 38 43 43 44 45 Total 35 37 42 48 48 49 50 Grade 9 to 10 Female n.a. n.a. 20 25 29 26 27 Male n.a. n.a. 20 26 27 26 26 Total 20 21 20 25 28 26 27 n.a. Not applicable. gender policy stipulates that roughly the same number of boys and girls are admitted into the upper-basic cycle. Consequently, the grade 7 to 8 transition rate in 2002 was considerably higher for females than for males. Progression rates increased very rapidly in the late 1990s, especially for girls, but have stabilized at current levels since 1999. The grade 9 to 10 pro- gression rate was only 20 percent in the mid-late 1990s. It jumped to 25 percent in 2002 as additional places became available with the restructur- ing of secondary education into separate upper-basic and high schools. ECZ progression rates only record enrollments in regular (morning) classes. Combined regular and APU enrollments gives a 2002 progression Appendix 5 · 17 Table A5.12 Dropouts at Upper-Basic and High Schools, 2002 (Percentage) Government Grant-aided Private Female Male Female Male Female Male Upper-basic Urban 3.2 2.2 7.5 5.6 0.5 0.3 Rural 9.6 6.1 12.1 7.3 3.1 0 High school Urban 2.4 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 Rural 2.6 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.1 0 Source: EMIS. rate of 43.8 percent for grade 7­8 and 36.4 percent for grade 9­10. Given current enrollment capacity, the eventual elimination of all grade 8 and 9 classes at government high schools will enable the grade 10 intake to be increased by around 15,000, thereby lifting the progression rate to 51 percent. Progression rates vary enormously between provinces. Middle to basic rates are as low as 31 percent in Lusaka Province and as high as 76 percent in North Western Province. There is also considerable interprovincial varia- tion from grade 9 to 10--from a low of 17 percent in Lusaka to 38 percent in Eastern Province. Dropout rates are high in the upper-basic grades in rural areas and for female pupils (see table A5.12). However, dropouts are much lower in high schools--ranging from 1­3 percent. Female dropout is twice as high as male dropout in government urban high schools, mainly as a result of marriage and pregnancy. There are no noticeable trends in dropout rates over time. HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL PUPILS Comparing the attainment profiles of the 20­29 and 30­39 age groups from DHS data from 1997 shows the extent to which educational devel- opment, both at primary and junior secondary, slowed during the 1980s and 1990s. Urban rural differences in participation persisted. The urban residents 20­29 and 30­39 years old have almost identical historic par- ticipation rates, and urban residents 15­19 years old fall well behind previous levels. This seems likely to remain the case even when all of those in this sample who were below 20 years old finish their schooling. Protracted economic crisis coupled with economic liberalization has resulted in a growing gap between the rich and the poor in Zambia, which 18 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa has important implications for demand and participation for secondary education. A relatively affluent elite continues to access high-quality educa- tion for their children, mainly offered by the 50 or so grant-aided high schools and a small number of private schools. For the growing population of the poor, on the other hand, secondary education, even at government high schools, has become largely unaffordable. In the later 1990s, less than 8 percent of those from the poorest 40 percent of families reached grade 8. Over 50 percent of those from the richest 20 percent achieved this level. Gender differentials with respect to grade attainment among all these groups are negligible. The findings of the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) of 1998 show that mean total incomes were almost three times higher for urban than rural households. Annual household income ranged from an average of just K 1.0 million in Western Province to K 4.9 million in Lusaka Province. Income distribution is highly unequal. The top 10 per- cent of households accounted for 36 percent of total income in the rural areas and 69 percent of income in the urban areas. Annual house- hold expenditure on education averaged a mere K 30,000 in rural areas and K 187,000 in urban areas. Table A5.13 shows annual education expenditure by different types of household. Poor rural households (small-scale farmers) spent K 28,000 per year on education and the urban poor (the inhabitants of "low-cost housing areas") spent K 114,000. In contrast, the rural and urban elite groups (large-scale farmers and the residents of high-cost housing areas) spent K 410,000 and K 524,000 respectively. Table A5.13 Household Education Expenditure, 1998 (K `000) Total Education Education expenditure % total Rural Small-scale farmers 2.3 141 1.6 Medium scale farmers 9.6 351 2.7 Large-scale farmers 34.1 2594 1.3 Nonagricultural 2.6 133 2.0 All rural 2.5 148 1.7 Urban Low-cost housing areas 9.5 269 3.5 Medium cost 20.8 360 5.8 High cost 43.7 551 7.9 All urban 15.6 319 4.9 Source: LCMS, 1998. Appendix 5 · 19 Annual user fees at upper-basic schools in Lusaka Province in 1998 averaged around K 30,000 in Lusaka and Kafue and K 10­15,000 in Chongwe District, which is predominantly rural. Fees at government day high schools in Lusaka were around K 100,000 and for day grant-aided schools, this figure was around K 165,000 (see table 5.14). Thus, in the absence of any significant bursary support, both upper-basic and high- school education was quite unaffordable for well over half of the population, in both urban and rural areas. A total of 460 pupils completed questionnaires about the educa- tional attainment and occupations of their parents. Table A5.15 shows Table A5.14 School Fees at Survey Schools, 1998 (K `000 Per Year) High school Upper-basic Government Grant-aided Private Lusaka/Kafue 30 (day) 100 (day) 165 (day) 160 (board) 165 (board) 700 (board) Rural 10 to 15 n.a. n.a. n.a. Source: School survey. n.a. Not applicable. Table A5.15 Father's Educational Attainment; Survey Schools in Lusaka Province, 2003 Upper-basic High school Female Male Female Male Urban University 18 12 36 27 Other post-secondary 18 23 36 30 Grade 10­12 47 42 15 22 Grade 8­9 18 16 2 6 Grade 1­7 0 0 9 1 No education 0 0 0 3 Don't know 0 7 2 14 Rural University 0 3 26 29 Other post-secondary 17 26 10 13 Grade 10­12 21 7 38 26 Grade 8­9 0 0 8 5 Grade 1­7 0 0 0 0 No education 4 10 12 18 Don't know 58 55 6 8 Source: School survey. 20 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa that at urban and periurban high schools in Lusaka Province, 72 percent of the fathers of female pupils have attended post-secondary institu- tions and 57 percent among male pupils. While these percentages are lower for upper-basic pupils, they are still relatively high compared to the educational profile of the adult population as a whole. About 62 percent of female and 50 percent of male pupils at the urban high schools had fathers who are either teachers or in professional occupa- tions (see table A5.16). The corresponding percentages for the urban upper-basic schools are 43 percent and 42 percent respectively. Given that no more than 10 percent of the adult working population in Lusaka is likely to be in professional occupational categories, this is a clear indi- cation of the extent to which high school education has been captured by elite groups. In rural schools in Chongwe District, the educational profile of fathers is much less skewed towards post-secondary education, only a very small proportion of pupils come from households where the father has only primary education or less. In terms of occupation, pupils attending rural Table A5.16 Father's Occupation: Secondary Survey Schools in Lusaka Province, 2003 Upper-basic High school Female Male Female Male Urban Teacher 6 12 5 8 Other professional 37 30 57 42 Skilled nonmanual 16 7 8 10 Skilled manual 16 16 9 7 Semi-unskilled 16 30 10 14 Farmer 4 0 8 6 At home 4 5 5 15 Don't know 0 0 0 0 Rural Teacher 8 16 6 13 Other professional 21 19 10 5 Skilled nonmanual 17 10 12 8 Skilled manual 7 10 6 18 Semi-unskilled 8 13 12 13 Farmer 33 29 46 37 Housewife 0 0 6 5 Don't know 4 0 0 0 Source: School survey. Appendix 5 · 21 secondary schools come from a much wider range of occupations. In particular, over one-third come from farming households. There are an estimated 700,000 orphans in Zambia, of whom 85 percent are of school age. The Strategic Plan expresses concern about the extent to which the educational needs of disadvantaged orphans are being met. "Under such stress, the perception of the value of education is changing, with increased emphasis on home care and working for a living taking precedence over school attendance" (MoE 2003, p. 16). According to the 1998 LCMS, 10.7 percent of the 15­18 age group were maternal or two-parent orphans and 26 percent of all children in this age group had lost at least one parent (see table A5.17). The LCMS report does not distinguish between attendance at primary and secondary schools, but it can be observed in table A5.18 that, with the exception of maternal orphans in urban areas, enrollment rates for orphans were higher than for all children in the 14­18 age group. Table A5.19 shows the incidence of maternal and two-parent orphans at government upper-basic schools and government and grant-aided high schools in 2002. Without accurate data on the over- all incidence of orphans in the relevant age groups for this year, it is not possible to establish whether or not orphans are relatively under- enrolled in secondary education. Certainly though, the percentages of Table A5.17 Orphans as Percentage of Under-20 Age Groups, 1998 Maternal Paternal Both All orphans Age 0­5 1.2 4.3 0.5 6 Age 6­9 2.7 9 2.3 14 Age 10­14 4.2 12 3.8 20 Age 15­18 5.2 15.1 5.5 26 Age 19­20 n.a. n.a. n.a. 29 Source: LCMS, 1998. n.a. Not applicable. Table A5.18 Orphan Attendance Rates by Age Group, 1998 (Percentages) Maternal Paternal Both All children Age 7­13 Rural 63 61 53 61 Urban 70 79 73 80 Age 14­18 Rural 51 46 53 49 Urban 55 62 73 63 Source: LCMS, 1998. 22 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.19 Maternal and Two-Parent Orphans: Upper-Basic and High Schools, 2002 (Percent) Government Grant-aided Upper-basic high school high school Orphan type Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Maternal Female 9.2 9.8 7.6 7.7 Male 8.9 8.5 5.9 5.5 Two-parent Female 7.1 8.3 5.8 6.9 Male 6.6 8.5 4.8 5.1 Maternal + Female 16.3 18.1 13.4 14.6 17.1 13.3 Two-parent Male 15.5 17 10.7 10.6 13.3 10 maternal and double orphans who were enrolled in these schools were generally considerably higher in 2002 than the overall incidence of this group in the 14­18 age cohort in 1998. The incidence of orphans at high school is appreciably lower than at upper-basic, especially for males, which suggests that orphans find it more difficult to access high school education. Despite considerably higher fees at grant-aided high schools, the incidence of maternal and two-parent orphans is higher at these schools than government high schools in urban areas, but about the same at rural schools. This is because grant-aided schools make more bursaries available to disadvantaged children, including needy orphans. Pupil respondents at the survey schools were requested to indicate if they parents were deceased. It is clear that there is no consistency in the orphan profile of pupils attending these schools with respect to type of school and location. It is also noticeable that the proportion of orphans at the survey schools is much higher than the levels reported for all upper- basic and high schools using EMIS data, especially for rural schools. This may be because guardians are sending relatively large numbers of orphans to rural boarding schools. In addition, there could be systematic underreporting of orphans by school heads when completing the annual school return. CURRICULUM ISSUES The core subjects and electives for grades 8­9 and grades 10­12 and their time allocations are set out in the national school curriculum. Table A5.20 summarizes these requirements for grades 8­9. The current curriculum for grades 8­9 is being reviewed to create the Basic Education Curriculum Framework. Appendix 5 · 23 Table A5.20 Core and Optional Subjects at Upper-Basic Schools Core subjects Periods/week Optional subjects No of periods/week English 6 Cultural/creative group: 2 French; Zambian language; art 4 and craft; music Mathematics 6 Environmental science 6 Practical subjects: Geography Industrial artsb Civics 4 Commercial subjectsc History Home economics Christian religious education Agricultural science Physical educationa 2 6 Production worka 3 a. Nonexaminable subjects. b. Metalwork, Woodwork and technical drawing. c. Office practice, book keeping. The grade 10­12 curriculum consists of a small number of core subjects and a wide selection of optional subjects covering humanities, mathemat- ics, industrial arts, and technical and practical subjects (table A5.21). For examination purposes, pupils are expected to take a minimum of six sub- jects, including three from the core group and a combination of electives according to each pupil's ability and interest. The total number of 40 minute-periods is not intended to exceed 45 per week. Forty periods is currently the norm. All pupils are required to take the nine core subjects and at least 4­7 optional subjects. The curriculum is organized according to subjects and not according to learning areas and outcomes. It has not been comprehensively reviewed since the mid-1980s. The curriculum has been heavily criticized for not being responsive to individual and national development learning needs. The linkage between life skills and the skills training provided by relevant institutions registered with the Technical Education, Vocational and Entre- preneurship Authority (TEVETA) is also perceived to be weak. The MoE has set minimum standards for educational delivery. These standards serve as a guide that all schools should aim to achieve as minimum (see table A5.22). Numerous constraints prevent widespread compliance to these standards. The sector has deteriorated to a level that the MoE is unable to provide properly trained teachers and basic learning materials to high schools. For example, university graduates are expected to teach science and mathematics, but diploma-level teachers frequently teach these subjects. The lack of fully equipped laboratories undermines the teaching of sciences. Although the MoE remains responsible for the supply of educational materials, Education Boards are expected to take 24 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.21 Core and Optional Subjects at High School Periods/week Core subject Min Max Optional subjects Total English 7 7 Humanities: Zambian language (5); French (4); Literature in English (4); History (4); Geography (4); Christian religious education (4) 25 Mathematics 5 7 Mathematics: Additional mathematics (4) 4 A science subject 4 5 6 Sciences: Physics (4); Chemistry (5); Biology (4); Agricultural science (6); Human and social biology; Combined science (6) 25 Physical education 2 2 Commercial subjects: Commerce (4); Principles of accounts (6); Economics (4); Shorthand and typing (6). 20 Production work 2 2 Technical and practical subjects: Food and nutrition (4); Home management (4); Fashion and fabrics (4); Woodwork (5); Metalwork (5); Geometrical and mechanical drawing (5); Geometrical and building drawing (5); Art and . design (4); Music (4) 40 Total per week 20 24 Table A5.22 MoE Standards for High School Education Area of concern Standard Curriculum As in table above Periods per week Minimum 20 per week per Maximum 30 periods per week per teacher teacher Teacher:class ratio 1.5 teacher per class plus two extra teachers for grade 8­12 Teacher qualification Diploma in Education, BA, B.Sc., or Diploma in Education, B.A. Education, B.Sc., B. Education for grade 8­9 and B. Education Class size Average of 40 pupils per class Teacher training High school teacher college High school teacher college and university and university Learning and teaching Learner-centered methods methods Staffing for APU University degree or advanced diploma. Retired teachers with relevant qualifications and experience can be recruited Open classes, evening classes, and APU Provision should limited to existing school facilities Appendix 5 · 25 Table A5.22 (continued) Area of concern Standard Enrollment Gender consideration and girls have a lower cut-off points than boys Special education needs All necessary facilities should be provided where special education needs are found facilities full responsibility under the decentralization policy but have little capacity to take on this role. PERFORMANCE The quality and relevance of both upper-basic and high school education is frequently questioned. The mean scores for English and mathematics in the 1995 grade assessment for basic schools were only 33 percent and 34 percent respectively. High school managers and teachers are concerned about the deteriorating quality of grade 10 intakes. For example, the national technical high school in Lusaka has only been able to fill two out of eight grade 10 technical classes because of the low standard of applicants and has had to lower the cutoff for entry. Most upper-basic schools do not have the necessary physical infrastructure to deliver the prescribed curriculum and none of the survey schools had remotely adequate laboratories. Often primary certificated teachers are teaching upper-basic classes. In principle both the grade 9 and school certificate examinations are criterion referenced and should therefore be a reasonably good indicator of trends in learning outcomes. Grade 9 pass rates in urban government schools are twice as high as at rural schools. Rural pupils benefit from some positive discrimination in the allocation of places to grade 10. Pass rates in 2002 by province ranged from 42 percent in Eastern Province to 74 percent in Luapula Province (see table A5.23). Overall pass rates have remained in a fairly narrow range since 1996 (47­54 percent) with the exception of 1999 and 2000. It is not clear why there was such a marked improvement in pass rates in these two years (see table A5.24). There has been no noticeable trend in school certificate pass rates among regular pupils attending high schools since the mid-1990s. The aggregate pass rate for boys was six percentage points higher than that for girls in 2002. Examination performance is much better at grant-aided and private schools (see table A5.25). Rural schools have appreciably lower 26 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.23 Pass Rates by Province, 2002 (Rounded Percentages) Grade 9 School certificate Female Male M-F diff Female Male M-F diff Central 43 56 13 58 63 5 Copperbelt 52 63 11 64 70 5 Eastern 33 47 14 74 80 6 Luapula 68 77 9 53 61 8 Lusaka 53 66 13 60 69 9 Northern 45 56 11 52 57 6 North-Western 57 62 5 62 69 7 Southern 43 54 11 57 63 6 Western 51 57 6 83 87 4 All 49 60 11 64 70 6 Source: ZCE. Table A5.24 Grade 9 Examination Pass Rates 1994­2002 (Percentages) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Female 17 19 36 36 55 78 53 47 56 Male 19 19 54 55 42 57 66 60 45 Total 18 19 47 47 49 68 60 54 50 Source: ECZ. Table A5.25 School Certificate Pass Rates by Type of School Government Grant-aided Private School type Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Day only 66 60 91 70 87 94 Boarding only 70 67 95 83 91 91 Co-educational 65 60 801 75 83 91 Girls only 81 76 96 91 100 97 Boys only 72 67 87 90 86 87 Source: ECZ. pass rates. Girls-only schools do exceptionally well, regardless of owner- ship and location. APU and open secondary pupils have to sit as external ECZ candidates. Regardless of how well external candidates do in their individual subject examinations, the ECZ does not award them the full school certificate. For this reason it is not possible to compare pass rates between internal and external candidates at individual high schools. It is widely reported that the pass rates among APU pupils in both these examinations are consid- erably lower than among regular pupils. This is not surprising given that Appendix 5 · 27 these individuals have not done as well academically as the regular pupils, come from the less well-educated households, and the duration of their school day is considerably shorter. TEACHERS The Strategy Plan notes that, with high PTRs and attrition rates, critical shortages of teachers exist in many schools, especially in rural areas. According to EMIS, there were slightly more than 50,000 teachers employed at registered schools in Zambia in 2002. In addition, 4,400 administrative and support staff were in post. The number of basic teachers contracted quite sharply in the late 1990s mainly due to `the decision to stop recruiting untrained teachers, high attrition, poor pay, and lack of housing particularly in rural areas. The number of upper-basic teachers climbed steadily from 3,300 in 1996 to 5,157 in 2000, but then fell off sharply to only 4,377 in 2001. The reasons for this decline are not clear. High school teachers increased steadily from around 5,600 in 1996 to 7,600 in 2001 and then appear to have increased to over 9,500 in 2002 for reasons that again are not clear. Less than one-third of secondary teachers are female (upper-basic 30 percent and high school 29 percent). The average number of teachers employed by school type is 27 at urban and 42 at rural government high schools respectively in 2002. The corre- sponding figures for grant-aided high schools are 28 and 32. Apart from one very large school in Lusaka, there were between five and nine grade 8­9 teachers at the upper-basic schools surveyed. Grant-aided schools often employ a small number of teachers out of their own funds. Information on upper-basic teachers cannot be separately extracted from EMIS. School visits revealed that many have only primary school teaching certificates. Only teachers with teaching diplomas and graduates are officially allowed to teach at high schools. Around 50­60 percent of high school teachers have ordinary or higher teaching diplomas and only 10­15 percent have university degrees (see table A5.26). Teacher qualification profiles at government high schools are not markedly different between urban and rural areas, but rural schools do have relatively more diploma trained teacher (65 percent compared to 54 percent). Grant-aided schools have a slightly higher proportion of graduates. There are widespread shortages of mathematics, science, and, to a lesser extent, English teachers. The vacancy rate (number in-post as a per- centage of official establishment) at the eight government and grant-aided high schools in the school survey was 9 percent and 14 percent at the nine 28 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.26 Qualification Profiles of High School Teachers, 2002 (Percentages) Government Grant-aided Private Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Certificate Urban 15 10 11 13 6 8 11 4 6 Rural 26 17 19 16 8 9 6 2 3 Diploma Urban 69 63 65 57 56 57 39 37 36 Rural 52 54 54 56 52 53 24 31 29 Degree Urban 8 15 12 14 17 16 24 26 24 Rural 6 9 8 23 12 11 18 23 22 Source: EMIS. upper-basic schools. In addition, another 12 percent of high school teachers were on study leave. Slightly more than two-thirds of teachers at the govern- ment high schools that were visited taught APU classes in the afternoon. The Strategic Plan notes that "The Ministry faces the challenge of rec- tifying imbalances in the staffing of schools. Many young teachers are refusing for a number of reasons to be deployed to the rural areas where there services are most needed" (MoE 2003, p. 33). Since vacancy and transfer data is not collected by EMIS, it is difficult to establish the extent to which this is true for upper-basic and high schools. However, given that high schools tend to have better facilities and housing for teaching staff and are not generally located in very remote locations, deployment issue are less acute than at basic schools. MoE planners estimate overall teacher attrition to be five percent and this is the figure that was used in the simulation modeling for the Strategic Plan. The report notes that "as many as 1600 basic teachers are lost to the system each year" (MoE 2003, p. 15). Teacher mortality from AIDS-related illnesses is estimated at "2.5 percent or more each year" (p. 16). However, data supplied by District Education Officers (DEO) in 31 out of 72 districts indicates that teacher attrition rates are low and falling. Unfortunately, this data is not broken down into basic and secondary teachers. During the last 20 years, there has been an exo- dus of teachers and lecturers who have left for greener pastures, mainly in Botswana and other countries in the region. Overseas recruitment now appears to be small since Botswana is no longer recruiting large numbers of expatriate teachers. EMIS data on departures from the teaching service show that annual attrition among high school teachers is in the region of 2­3 percent. These rates are appreciably higher among teachers working in urban schools. Appendix 5 · 29 There are two main sources on data on teacher deaths--the DEO survey and EMIS data from the Annual School Return. While there are sizeable differences in the two sets of data, both show that teacher mor- tality is falling and was between 1.0 to 1.6 percent in 2002. According to EMIS data, the overall mortality rate for high school teachers was 0.65 percent and 1.1 percent for basic teachers in 2002. Similar mor- tality differentials between primary and secondary teachers have been observed in other countries (see Bennell, Hyde, and Swainson 2002). Mortality rates are higher among high school teachers at urban schools. Teacher mortality at the survey schools in Lusaka and Kafue was 5.0 percent in 2001 and 2.75 percent in 2002. For the schools in Chongwe District, the mortality rates were 1.4 percent in 2001 and 0.9 percent in 2002. The cumulative mortality rates by occupational level of deceased fathers among pupil respondents at the survey schools show that teachers have relatively low mortality rates compared to both middle-level and semi-unskilled occupational groups. Head teachers at the survey schools do not regard absenteeism among (in-school) teachers at the survey schools as a major issue. The absen- teeism rate on the survey day(s) was only 2.8 percent. Between 1.0 and 1.5 percent of high school teachers were absent from class in the previous year due to long illness for one month or more according to EMIS data. Of teachers at the survey schools, 1.6 percent were "sick." There is no progressive career structure with attractive promotion prospects for teachers. Promotion into school and MoE management positions is the only way teachers can advance their careers. During the 1990s, the real incomes of both primary and secondary teachers plum- meted (see table A5.27) and teacher's pay was well below the official poverty line. However, since 2001, there have been two substantial salary increases. The 2001 award virtually eliminated pay differentials between secondary and primary teachers. An objective of the April 2003 pay awards is to "decompress" teacher salary scales--that is, reestablish relatively large income differentials, particularly between certificate, diploma, and graduate qualification levels. Graduate and diploma high school teachers also received an additional 20 percent allowance. From April 2003, a Table A5.27 Secondary School Teacher Salaries, 1989­2003 (US$ Per Year) 1989 1992 1999 2001 2003 Graduate (ES2) 1,797 1,889 764 841 1,744 Diploma (ES4) 1,455 1,657 680 793 1,319 Source: MoE, Department of Administration and Human Resources. Note: Table shows midpoint of salary scale. 30 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa housing allowance of around K 150,000 per month was payable. The payroll bill increased by 61­67 percent (in current prices) at the survey high schools as a result of the April 2003 pay awards. In Lusaka, high school teachers are normally paid K 4,000­4,500 for each APU lesson. Upper-basic teachers teaching APU classes or who are employed at open schools receive around K 2,500­4,000 per lesson. The corresponding figures for schools in Chongwe District are K 4,000­5,000 and K 1,000­3,500 respectively. Many teachers were reported to be earn- ing other secondary income from private tuition. Between 25 and 30 percent of male and 15 and 20 percent of female pupils at urban schools in the survey indicated that they were receiving private tuition. Hardly any pupils attending rural schools in Chongwe District were undertaking pri- vate tuition. In part, this may be because teachers at rural schools have less incentive to supplement their incomes (given lower living costs). It is also because more rural pupils come from poorer households. Income tax of 30 percent is payable on all APU earnings. However, additional salary payments made to teachers at open secondary schools are paid gross. In addition to their normal salary, teachers at these schools are paid up to K 2,500 per lesson. Thus, a teacher with 30 periods can increase her income by K 300,000 per month. Since their teaching loads are no greater than other teachers at these schools, this arrangement is clearly inequitable. Most grant-aided schools also offer limited salary sup- plementation, either a thirteenth paycheck or monthly salary supplemen- tation (usually around K 60­80,000 per month). Apart from pay, head teachers and teachers at the survey schools stated that the availability of reasonable quality housing for teachers is the single most important determinant of teacher morale and commitment. Without housing, most teachers have to live in rented accommodation, often at a considerable distance from school, which is both expensive and very time- consuming. Housing and free or heavily subsidized utilities are usually provided for teachers at grant-aided high schools, especially boarding schools in rural areas. At ten of the survey schools, housing was provided to less than half of the teaching staff. INDICATORS OF EFFICIENCY There are pervasive concerns about the "poor utilisation of human resources" (MoE 2003, p. 41) across the education system in Zambia. These concerns encompass repetition rates, class size, PTR and teacher-class ratios, teaching loads, and unit costs. What data there is suggests that average repetition rates vary between 3 and 7 percent in each grade of Appendix 5 · 31 middle-basic schools. Repetition rates at urban and rural (grade 8­12) government high schools averaged 1­2 percent and 3­4 percent respectively in 2002 (see table A5.28). Differences in repetition rates between government and grant-aided schools only exist in rural areas. Repetition rates in grades 10­12 average 0.5 percent. The average class size at upper-basic schools was only 26 in 2001. Class sizes are much higher in the senior grades at high schools (see tables A5.29 and A5.30). This is particularly the case at government schools in urban areas. As expected, private schools have much smaller classes. Although class sizes are relatively large, pupil-teacher ratios are gen- erally low and have fallen since the late 1990s. Table A5.31 shows that the PTR was only 20 in government and 18 in grant-aided schools in 2002. Including APU pupils increases PTRs by 30 percent and 14 percent in urban and rural government high schools respectively. One in five urban schools and nearly one in three rural schools have PTRs of less than 15. There is a small minority of high schools that have PTRs greater than 30 (6.5 percent of the urban schools and 9.6 of the rural schools). The overall distribution of PTRs by school is shown in table A5.32. Most high schools are only permitted to employ 2.5 teachers per sub- ject. The teaching load norm at high schools is 20­25 periods out of a total 40 period week--that is, eight 40-minute classes per day. Large classes and low PTRs in high schools result in relatively high teacher-class ratios. Table A5.28 Average Repetition Rates for High School Pupils, 2002 (Percentages) Urban Rural Female Male Female Male Government 1.7 1.0 4.1 2.7 Grant-aided 1.6 1.1 2.6 2.1 Private 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.9 Source: EMIS. Table A5.29 Average Class Size in Upper-Basic Grades, 2002 Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Urban 42 28 17 Rural 38 39 25 Attendance Day Boarding Both Urban 41 16 23 Rural 38 13 37 Source: EMIS. 32 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa According to EMIS data, there were well over two teachers per class in all types of high school in 2002. However, this includes school managers. The findings of the school survey also show that there are around 10 percent of teachers who are on the government payroll but who are not actually teaching (mainly because they are on study leave at the University of Zambia or teacher training colleges). Table A5.30 Average Class Size in High Schools, 2002 Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Urban 46 41 31 Rural 39 36 31 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Urban 57 42 39 Rural 35 36 39 Attendance Day Boarding Both Urban 41 34 43 Rural 39 36 39 Streams Grade 8­12 Grade 10­12 Grade 8­9 Urban 46 52 37 Rural 40 36 38 Source: EMIS. Table A5.31 Pupil-Teacher Ratios at High Schools by Ownership, 2002 Urban Rural Female Male Female Male Government 20.3 26.6 19.8 22.5 Grant-aided 18.1 19.1 15.5 16.0 Private 13.8 14.1 9.2 9.2 Source: EMIS. Table A5.32 Percentage Distribution of Schools by Pupil- Teacher Ratios, 2002 PTR Government Grant-aided Private 0­10 11 13 48 10 to 15 11 0 13 15 to 20 38 69 20 20 to 25 22 13 11 25 to 30 12 6 4 30 to 35 4 0 2 35 to 40 1 0 0 40> 1 0 2 Source: EMIS. Appendix 5 · 33 Teaching loads can be imputed from the EMIS data using the follow- ing formula: (1/teacher-class ratio)*40. The mean number of periods taught per week is around 20 at both urban and rural high schools, but only 16­17 at grant-aided schools (see table A5.33). However, as expected, teaching loads at government schools with APU classes are much higher--around 35 periods per week (see table A5.34). APU teachers frequently work from 7.30 am to 5.30 pm, which most find very tiring. Periods taught are lowest in schools with between 500 and 100 pupils. Teachers at government high schools all teach around 25­27 periods during the regular morning sessions (see table A5.35). Even though grant- aided teachers only teach classes in the morning, their teaching loads are not appreciably higher than those of government teachers. The workloads of upper-basic teachers are particularly low, except for English. The same is true for teachers at open secondary schools although to a slightly lesser Table A5.33 Imputed Teaching Loads (Periods Per Week) at High Schools, 2002 Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Urban 19 17 18 Rural 20 17 11 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Urban 19 17 17 Rural 19 16 15 Attendance Day Boarding Both Urban 19 15 14 Rural 22 16 16 Source: EMIS. Table A5.34 Imputed Teaching Load of APU High School Teachers (Periods/Week), 2002 Ownership Government Grant-aided Private Urban 34 26 29 Rural 35 33 0 Gender Co-ed Boys only Girls only Urban 31 32 33 Rural 34 30 35 Attendance Day Boarding Both Urban 34 28 28 Rural 37 35 30 Source: EMIS. 34 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa extent. Upper-basic schools are able to offer open classes precisely because they have a surplus of teachers. The dispersion in the teaching loads becomes very marked when APU afternoon classes are included (see table A5.36). For example, across all the survey schools, one-third of mathematics teachers have 35 periods whereas 15 percent have less than 20 periods each week. The morning session at government high schools normally begins at 0730 and finishes at 1300. Eight 40-minute lessons are taught during this period. At APU schools, the afternoon session normally starts at 1330 and finishes at 1730. Typically, APU pupils have seven 35 or 30 minute lessons, which means that they spend nearly 30 percent less time in class than the regular pupils. One surveyed open secondary school in Lusaka only offered 35 periods per week when 40 are prescribed. Most basic schools in urban areas triple shift. Consequently, as the Strategic Plan points out, there is "dismal pupil teacher contact time in the lower basic grades (1­4)." This amounts to little more than three-four hours in most schools. The most recent Unit Cost Study (OPM 2002) surveyed 30 basic and 14 high schools. The high school sample is too small to able to provide robust estimates given their diversity with respect to location, size, owner- ship, attendance regimes, and gender and stream composition. EMIS Table A5.35 Mean Number of Teaching Periods, 2002 Government high Grant-aided high Upper-basic Open secondary schools schools schools schools Mathematics 26 31 19 23 English 27 26 24 20 Science 25 28 18 17 Geography 23 27 17 24 History 25 23 17 21 Commerce 26 24 13 20 Source: School survey. Table A5.36 Percentage Distribution of Teaching Periods at High Schools, 2002 Periods/week 35> 30­34 25­29 20­24 15­19 <15 Mathematics 33 27 20 7 15 0 English 47 13 27 0 13 0 Geography 20 10 20 20 20 10 History 27 33 0 33 13 7 Commerce 30 20 20 0 0 30 Source: School survey. Appendix 5 · 35 data on incomes and expenditure is available for 2002 but is incomplete and the Annual School Survey form does not request information on payroll costs. The Unit Cost Study produced the following unit cost estimates (in 2000 U.S. dollars): middle-basic 26, upper-basic 56, high school 60, teacher education 338, and university 1,303. The differential between pri- mary/basic and secondary school unit costs is low by sub-Saharan African standards because there was little difference in teacher's salaries at basic and secondary schools. Costs increased very appreciably after 2001 as a result of large salary awards. Salaries accounted for 91 percent of total gov- ernment expenditure at middle-basic schools in 2001. The corresponding figures for upper-basic and high school are 83 percent and 74 percent respectively (see OPM, 2002). The unit cost estimates for the high schools in the sample are pre- sented in table A5.37. Grant-aided schools costs per pupil are around twice as much as government schools and unit costs at both grant-aided and government rural schools are 50 per higher than urban schools. EMIS unit cost estimates for nonsalary recurrent expenditure at gov- ernment and grant-aided high schools are presented in tables A5.38 and A5.39. Unit costs estimates for grant-aided schools are lower than for government schools, which is almost certainly not the case and suggests that annual school returns are incomplete. Unit costs at government high schools in urban areas are one-third higher than in rural areas. Unit costs at boarding high schools are 45 times higher than at day schools. How- ever, these mean figures conceal very considerable dispersion in unit costs among schools of the same type. Table A5.37 Unit Recurrent and Capital Expenditure (Grade 8­12) High Schools, 2002 (K `000) Government Grant-aided Private Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Recurrent Government 156 321 286 374 0 0 Private 140 161 309 502 3331 0 Subtotal 296 482 595 876 3331 0 Capital Government 0 3 3 19 0 0 Private 1 2 16 32 1 0 Subtotal 2 5 19 51 2 0 Total 292 487 614 927 3333 0 Source: OPM 2002 (2001 prices in K `000). 36 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.38 Mean Nonsalary Unit Costs at High Schools, 2001 (K `000) Day Boarding Urban Rural Urban Rural Government 129 96 493 336 Grant-aided 79 72 347 627 Source: EMIS. Note: Nonsalary recurrent expenditure is shown only for government and grant-aided schools. Table A5.39 Median and Quartile Nonsalary Unit Costs: High Schools, 2001 (K `000) Urban Rural Enrollments LQ Median UQ LQ Median UQ Day Government 56 87 138 26 60 91 Grant-aided 52 68 109 20 34 107 Boarding Government 74 364 1,042 141 270 468 Grant-aided 85 347 1,200 452 580 801 Source: EMIS. Note: Table shows nonsalary recurrent expenditure only. SCHOOL FINANCE Public expenditure on education in Zambia as a percentage of gross domestic product is low--only 2.9 percent in 2002, although this has increased from 2.3 percent in 1996. Education expenditure accounted for 4.1 percent of GDP in 2002 when external support is included. Public expenditure on education has increased from 14 percent of the disposable budget in 1996 to 21 percent in 2002. Total public expenditure on education was K 293.6 billion ($107.3 million) in 2000, of which 29.4 percent came from external sources (donors). Almost all of this support was for recurrent and capital expen- diture for middle-basic schools. Zambia does not have an operational Medium Term Expenditure Framework. Consequently, there are no fund- ing targets for the education sector and secondary education in particular over the next five years. Allocations by subsectoral level were middle-basic 63.5 percent, upper-basic 12.4 percent, and high schools 7.1 percent (see table A5.40). The Strategic Plan notes that currently, funding from GRZ (for high schools) is unreliable, irregular, and inadequate. Resources to maintain Appendix 5 · 37 Table A5.40 Recurrent and Capital Public Expenditure on Education, 2000 (K billion) Grade 1­7 Grade 8­9 Grade 10­12 Teacher training University Other Total Recurrent Government 109.8 31 20.7 6.2 32.7 3 203.4 External 19.7 1.4 0 8 0 0 29.1 Capital Government 3 0.2 0 0 0 0 3.2 External 53.7 3.8 0 0 0 0 57.5 Total Kwacha 186.5 36.4 20.7 14.2 32.7 3 293.5 $ million 68.2 13.3 7.6 8 107.3 Source: OPM 2002. the quality of high school education have been extremely limited in recent years. The abolition of user fees for middle-basic education has had a major impact on schools. The loss of income has only been partially made up by government grants. Consequently, fee income from upper-basic pupils has become critically important. As one head teacher of an open second- ary school interviewed in the field study for this report put it, "the school now has to make a living out of Grades 8 and 9." Basic schools in Lusaka were charging fees of up to K 60,000 per year in 2001/early 2002. One of the survey schools lost K 105 million as a result of the changed policy on fees. The government grant for each school was only around K 3 million per term in early 2003. The Strategic Plan notes that "loss of income and the delays in paying out pension and retrenchment packages has further affected the ability of parents to participate in the finance of education under the cost-sharing policy of the government" (MoE 2003, p. 15). With regard to the setting of fee levels, "there is evidence that poorer par- ents may often not be represented or sidelined in decisions to levy user fees that they cannot afford" (p. 18). Both upper-basic and high schools have become mainly reliant on fee and other income to meet nonsalary expenditure costs as government funding has dwindled. (see table A5.41). Since April­May 2002 the gov- ernment has also provided middle-basic schools with small quarterly grants that are intended to make up for the loss of fee income as a result of the government decision to abolish all user fees in grades 1 to 7. The actual amounts received by the survey secondary schools fluctuated con- siderably from quarter to quarter. This public subsidy is also higher at both day and boarding grant-aided schools. 38 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.41 Private Funding of Nonsalary Recurrent Expendi- ture: High Schools, 2001 (Percentage) Urban Rural Day Boarding Day Boarding Government 84 84 74 79 Grant-aided 71 80 89 77 Source: EMIS. According to the Unit Cost Study, in 2001, private sources of income accounted for 48 percent and 33 percent of total expenditure at government urban and rural high schools respectively (OPM 2002). The corresponding figures for grant-aided high schools are 52 percent and 57 percent. The gov- ernment pays all teachers salaries in established posts at government and grant-aided schools. Among the 14 schools surveyed by the Unit Cost Study, government subsidy per pupil was as much as 83 percent higher at urban grant-aided high schools than at government high schools in rural areas.4 This is mainly because grant-aided schools have better-qualified and thus higher-salaried staff and PTRs are also lower. Pupils at grant-aided schools tend to come from richer households, so this pattern of funding tends to be regressive. In 2001, fees at government urban and rural basic schools (with upper-basic grades) averaged K 35,000 and K 16,000 respectively (see table A5.42). Open school/APU fees for grades 8 and 9 were well over double at urban schools. In addition, parents are normally required to contribute to a variety of "funds" such as general purpose, sports, parent- teacher association, and school. Reliable data on these is not available. There is a wide variation in fee levels, even among government schools (see table A5.43). Median fees for day pupils at urban government schools were 60 percent higher than those charged by rural schools. The fees charged at the survey schools in 2003 are presented in table A5.44. The fee differential for regular and APU pupils at Lusaka high schools is around 40­50 percent. However, actual contact time for APU pupils is between 25­35 percent less than for regular pupils, so fees per period are considerably higher for APU pupils. Fee income is reduced by pupils who are "defaulters." For example, one of the survey-open secondary schools in Lusaka only managed to col- lect K 5 million in fees in 2002 when it would have grossed over K 15 mil- lion if all pupils had paid in full. As a consequence, most schools are under financial pressure. In the words of one head teacher interviewed, "we are surviving like crooks!" Many schools do not generate sufficient Appendix 5 · 39 Table A5.42 Fees Per Pupil at Upper- Basic Schools, 2002 (K `000) Urban Rural Government Regular 35 16 APU 82 29 Grant-aided Regular 35 32 APU 65 18 Private Regular 202 48 APU 181 Source: EMIS. Table A5.43 Median/Lower/Upper Quartile Fees Per Pupil at Day High Schools, 2002 (K `000) Urban Rural Enrollments LQ Median UQ LQ Median UQ Day schools Government 69 96 121 35 60 92 Grant-aided 28 63 111 39 50 1572 Private 61 158 392 300 300 300 Boarding Government 109 165 457 133 274 349 Grant-aided 105 158 450 141 379 554 Private 210 405 800 383 1097 1870 Source: EMIS. Table A5.44 Annual Fees for Regular and APU Pupils at Survey Schools, 2003 (K `000) % arrears School code Type Location Regular APU Shift1 Shift 2 A HS Govt-board Urban 855 n.a. 5 n.a B HS Govt-day Urban 200 280 15 15 C HS Govt-day Urban 156 235­216 30 n.a. D HS Govt-day Urban 220 230­188 9 n.a. E HS Govt-board Rural 633 270 85 n.a F HS Govt-board Rural 600 180 70 70 G HS GA-day Urban 225 0 50 n.a. H HS GA-board Periurban 1098 0 >5 n.a. I UB Govt-day Urban 85 200 66 10 (continued) 40 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Table A5.44 (continued) % arrears School code Type Location Regular APU Shift 1 Shift 2 J UB Govt-day Rural 75 150 85 0 K UB Govt-day Rural 50 0 30 n.a. L UB Govt-day Rural 120 n.a. 50 M UB Govt-day Rural 75 n.a. 61 N UB Govt-day Rural 40 0 25 0 O UB-open Govt-day Urban 190­256 0 n.a. n.a. P UB-open Govt-day Urban 135 0 n.a. n.a Q UB-open Govt-day Rural 90 90 n.a 1.8 n.a. Not applicable. income to meet their basic running costs and as a result they owe large sums of money for water, electricity, and telephone service. Another con- sequence of rapidly increasing fees is that relatively large numbers of pupils who obtain places at high schools are unable to take them up. For example, at a national high school in Lusaka, 55 out of the grade 10 intake of 220 in 2003 were "no shows." Many head teachers and Boards want to take "tougher" action against pupils in arrears, but are unable to do so because of MoE policy and prac- tice. As one head teacher interviewed suggested, "the politicians will not allow us to chase pupils away and pupils and parents know this." Another commented sadly that "we have to be cruel to make them pay." In an effort to deal with this problem, most schools now insist that new intakes (at grade 8 and 10) pay their fees before they are admitted and that grade 12 pupils cannot receive their school certificates until they have paid off any arrears. "Chasing pupils for fees" is time-consuming and stressful because many parents and guardians do find it very difficult to pay. Getting APU pupils to pay their fees is generally less problematic because this is de facto private education and schools are free to expel defaulters. However, a few survey schools reported that fee arrears are worse among APU pupils. This was said to be partly due to children from the same families enrolling in both the morning and afternoon and household income being insufficient to support both. High schools typically receive less than 10 percent of the fee income from APU classes. The reminder is used exclusively for teacher remuneration. Open schools are required to pay 15 percent of their fee income to the District Education Office. There are few sources of additional income generation, especially at basic schools. Grant-aided and older government high schools have Appendix 5 · 41 more opportunities to pursue various kinds of income generation projects because they have more land that can be exploited especially for farming and housing projects. They also tend to have more afflu- ent and well-educated parents who can support various fund raising activities (dinner dances, school fairs, and so forth). The very poor security situation at urban basic schools also militates against income earning opportunities. The School Annual Return requests information on the following expenditure categories: professional salaries (excluding government pay- roll), salaries for auxiliary staff, recurrent department, capital, other, sur- plus/deficit, and total. This categorization does not allow expenditures on key inputs such as textbooks, boarding expenses, and so forth to be separately identified. Unit expenditures per pupil for inputs at day and boarding schools are presented in table A5.45. Some of these figures are probably too low for grant-aided schools and further checking is there- fore needed. Nonetheless, the extremely low levels of recurrent expendi- ture per pupil are very worrying. Table A5.45 Unit Expenditure/Pupil: Day and Boarding High Schools, 2001 (K `000) Urban Rural Expenditure category Gov. Grant-aided Private Gov. Grant-aided Private Day schools Professional salaries 36 7 389 8 4 n.a. Auxiliary staff 6 3 87 3 1 n.a. Recurrent departmental 33 26 78 26 50 n.a. Grants 7 5 22 3 2 n.a. Capital 56 17 127 28 3 n.a. Other expenditure 68 17 83 15 11 n.a. Surplus/deficit 50 9 28 31 4 n.a. Total 256 84 814 114 75 n.a. Boarding schools Professional salaries 150 9 177 64 55 n.a. Auxiliary staff 62 9 118 15 38 n.a. Recurrent departmental 286 17 280 94 313 n.a. Grants 52 54 53 47 70 n.a. Capital 16 388 44 45 46 n.a. Other expenditure 19 48 393 61 101 n.a. Surplus/deficit 186 23 85 98 64 n.a. Total 771 548 1150 424 687 n.a. Source: EMIS. n.a. Not applicable. 42 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY CHALLENGES The MoE strategic plan for the five-year period 2003­07 contains a wide array of policy initiatives with regard to access and equity, quality and rel- evance, and efficiency and management. It has very ambitious enrollment targets for both upper-basic and high school education. It is anticipated that upper-basic and high school enrollments will increase by around 50 percent between 2002 and 2007 (see table A5.46). Enrollments for mid- dle-basic education are projected to increase by only 20 percent--from 1.92 million in 2002 to 2.3 million in 2007. The proportion of pupils at private schools increases faster than those in public schools though it is unknown whether this will be possible given their fee levels. The key targets for middle and upper-basic and high school educa- tion are presented in table A5.47. The progression rate from middle to Table A5.46 Strategic Plan Enrollment Targets for 2007 (Rounded `000) 2002 actual 2007 % increase Middle-basic grade 1­7 1,921 2,302 20 Upper-basic grade 8­9 219 326 49 Public enrollments 178 256 44 Private enrollments 41 70 71 High school grade 10­12 136 208 53 Public enrollments 85 125 48 Private enrollments 51 82 61 Further education and training 53 55 4 Source: MoE 2003. Table A5.47 Strategic Plan Targets for Access and Efficiency Basic grade 1­7 Upper-basic High school 2001 2007 2001 2007 2001 2007 actual target actual target actual target Progression rate 95 100 53 70 44 50 GER 97 110 42 62 18 28 Completion rate 64 86 41 59 18 26 Repetition rate 6 4 6 6 1 1 Pupil-teacher ratio 52 64 21 36 19 28 Class size 36 45 40 45 44 42 Teacher-class ratio 1.8 1.3 2.2 1.5 Periods/week 22 31 18 27 Textbook-pupil ratio 1 1 0 3.5 0 2 Bursaries (%) 2 5 0 20 0 10 Boarding pupils 0 0 8.4 3.7 29 18 Source: MoE 2003. Appendix 5 · 43 upper-basic education is expected to increase appreciably--from 53 percent in 2002 to 70 percent in 2007. The planned increase is much less for high school enrollments--from 44 percent to 50 percent. The Strategic Plan sets out an investment program for each subsector. For high schools, it is planned to construct 1,000 new teachers' houses and com- prehensively rehabilitate 500 classrooms and 900 teacher houses. Total infrastructure expenditure for upper-basic during the plan period is K 103 million compared to K 377 million for high schools. Demand constraints may well limit expansion given the current costs of upper-basic and high school education. The abolition of users fees for primary (middle-basic) education may not lead to substantial increases in those seeking entry into lower-secondary school. The main reason is that primary GERs were already high prior to the abolition of fees and, in the urban areas in particular, nearly all children already attended primary school. Expenditure from fees at primary schools accounted for less than one percent of total expenditure in rural government schools in 2001, which suggests that the immediate implication of abolishing fees is likely to be limited (OPM 2002, p. 36). The main goal of the Strategic Plan is to "provide free basic education to all children" by 2007 and thus "the Ministry will work towards reducing and abolishing user fees for grades 8 and 9 over the next few years through further budgetary allocations" (MoE 2003, p. 25). The Strategic Plan does recognize that the effective demand for secondary education is constrained by direct costs and that "Many parents cannot afford fees, particularly for boarding. Often boarding places in rural schools are not taken up pupils, especially girls from the surrounding districts" (p. 41). However, the share of upper-basic in total public expenditure is projected to remain unchanged at 12 percent up until 2007, which seems contradictory. The overall strategy has several elements. First, "day schools will be expanded especially in rural areas so that cost can be reduced through reduced needs for boarding. This may necessitate the conversion of some basic schools into high schools, retaining facilities for weekly boarding at selected locations. Second, gender disparities leading to differential drop out between grades 5­7 and grades 8­9 will be addressed by a vigorous grassroots campaign with traditional leaders, parents, and civil society groups to change attitudes and develop incentives for keeping girls in school" (p. 25). The attainment of the 70 percent transition rate from middle to upper-basic will be dependent on concerted action being taken to reduce the numerous constraints that affect the access, retention, and learning performance of girls, especially in poorly resourced public schools. Third, it is intended to expand the bursary support for orphans and other vulnerable children. By 2007, 20 percent of upper-basic and 44 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa 10 percent of high school pupils will receive bursaries. The levels of finan- cial support are based on the findings of the Unit Cost Study and cover all major school expenses including fees (K 80,000 and K 237,000 per year for upper-basic and high school day pupils and K 416,000 per year for high school boarders.). Fourth, health and nutrition programs will be introduced for districts and zones where malnutrition and ill-health have significant impact on pupil attendance and performance. Fifth, subsidies to grant-aided high schools are to be reduced to the same levels as in gov- ernment schools with a mechanism to favor targeted support to the schools in the most disadvantaged areas with the lowest fee levels. Quality improvements center around curriculum revision and improved learning outcomes. It is hoped that the School Certificate pass rate will increase from 66 percent to 72 percent in 2007. The Basic Edu- cation Curriculum Framework will be extended to the upper-basic level and has to be suitable for use in acutely resource-constrained schools, par- ticularly upper-basic schools in rural areas. It needs to focus on the acqui- sition of basic skills and competencies because a majority of new entrants into grade 8 have not achieved the minimum levels of learning achieve- ment in the recently introduced grade 5 assessment tests. At high school level the Strategic Plan emphasizes the importance of establishing stronger linkages between life skills at the basic education level, voca- tional and skill training centers, higher education and the world of work. The ambition is to develop a framework of competencies that dovetail into different levels and courses offered across the different institutions It is intended that there should be a strong emphasis on "psychosocial skills" that will help prepare young people for adult life and help prevent the spread of HIV. The vocational content of both the upper-basic and high school curricula remains under discussion and it is probable that prevocational subjects including ICT and management and entrepreneur- ship will be offered at both levels. However, given pupil and parental atti- tudes coupled with severe resource constraints, any attempt to strongly vocationalize the secondary school curricula would seem problematic. Textbook-pupil ratios of 3.5:1 for upper-basic and 2.0:1 for high schools have been set. However, public expenditure allocations for learning materi- als are very low--only K 14,000­17,000 per pupil in 2007, which is only 3­6 percent of target unit expenditure for high and upper-basic schools respectively. In addition to textbooks, other essential inputs include labora- tory equipment and materials, stationery, and library books and comput- ers/ICT. Consideration is needed of using matching subsidies of textbooks, rather than cash, to increase the supply of textbooks as well as provide seed funding for self-funding textbook rental schemes. Appendix 5 · 45 The Plan proposes various measures to improve the competence, commitment, and utilization of teachers. These include substantial resource commitments to in-service training and increased incentives for teachers to work in rural and remote areas, particularly female teachers, and improved teaching housing. However, the following key staffing and training issues also require concerted attention and action in the future: · the introduction of a proper career structure for teachers and school managers · bonuses linked to productivity and performance · increasing the proportion of female teachers at both upper-basic and high schools · reform of the preservice training programs to include longer periods of mentored school-based practical training · concerted efforts to address the major shortages of mathematics, science, and English teachers · a comprehensive AIDS in the Workplace program for all teachers and other MoE staff Targets assume that it will be possible to increase average teaching loads by around 50 percent and also to increase the mean class size in upper-basic schools from 40 to 45. This will enable PTRs to be increased from 21 to 36 for upper-basic schools and 19 to 28 for high schools (see table A5.47). These projected increases in PTRs are very sizeable and may not be attainable. Already poorly paid teachers will be required to increase their teaching loads by around 50 percent. Although teacher pay is expected to increase by one-third in real terms during the plan period, teachers are likely to resist any attempt to increase teaching loads. Further the target PTRs are not realistic for teachers who are teaching APU classes. Perhaps a more attainable target would be to ensure that all teachers meet the current teaching load norm of 24 periods a week. As discussed earlier, teaching loads vary considerably among teachers within and between schools. Subject teachers in underutilized subjects should taking on addi- tional teaching responsibilities. Part of the problem is the very small size of upper-basic and high school enrollments, especially at rural basic schools. Concerted efforts are needed therefore to ensure that the sizes of upper-basic streams are increased to reap economies of scale. If the target pupil-teacher ratios and class size targets can be achieved, then additional annual teacher requirements will decline very apprecia- bly­from around 1,300 in 2002 to 650 in 2007 for upper-basic teachers and 1,200 to 500 for high school teachers. Given current levels and trends 46 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa in teacher attrition, teacher "wastage" is likely to be two to three times less than the annual attrition rate of 6 percent assumed in the Strategic Plan. Consequently, annual teacher recruitment targets may need to fall. In overall terms, mean annual unit recurrent expenditure is expected to fall by 2 percent at upper-basic schools and increase by only 8 percent at high schools between 2002 and 2007 (see table A5.48). It is planned that unit cost differentials between primary and upper-basic will decrease from 2.8 in 2002 to 1.8 in 2007 and for high schools from 3.2 to 2.6. These primary-secondary education unit cost differentials are low com- pared to other countries in SSA. It is unlikely that they can be any lower than these levels without seriously affecting learning outcomes. Medium-term budget allocation and the methods through which it will be financed give rise for concern. The attainment of the goals and targets set depends on resource availability. Total recurrent expenditure on educa- tion will need to grow, on average, at 7.5 percent per year (in 2001 constant prices) between 2003 and 2007, and this assumes dramatic increases in internal efficiency. Central assumptions include the following: · Annual GDP growth will average 4­5 percent during the plan period, which is very optimistic given recent growth trends and the current economic crisis. Table A5.48 Unit Cost Recurrent Expenditure Projections (rounded '000 constant 2001 prices) Middle-basic Upper-basic High school Expenditure category 2001 2007 2001 2007 2001 2007 Teacher salary 86 83 214 169 255 233 Nonteacher salary 1 1 13 10 41 43 Learning materials 8 27 6 17 0 14 Boarding 9 4 31 20 Bursary 1 1 0 16 0 27 School operating costs 12 18 11 17 10 10 Special programs 11 29 7 20 1 21 Standards visits 0 1 2 2 5 8 Assessment 1 1 28 27 46 45 Overall 120 161 289 282 389 422 % change n.a. 34 n.a. ­2 n.a. 8 Unit cost differentials 1 1 2.4 1.8 3.2 2.6 Source: MoE 2003. n.a. Not applicable. Appendix 5 · 47 · The share of the education budget in total public expenditure will remain constant, although it is noted there are "positive signs that government will progressively increase the allocation (to education)." · The shares of upper-basic and high schools in total recurrent education expenditure will remain virtually unchanged. · Almost 30 percent of total resource requirements will come from external funding. The overall analysis of the sector suggests that there is much scope for improved performance and greater internal efficiency. However, planned growth appears to be predicated on overoptimistic assumptions about efficiency gains, much more effective mechanisms for implementing cur- riculum reform and quality improvement, and unrealistically low levels of resource commitment to support expanded participation. NOTES 1. The analysis is based on interviews with directors of all key departments in the Ministry of Education. Other interviews were conducted with officials at the Examinations Council of Zambia, the Education Secretariat of the Catholic Church, selected teacher unions, and the Ministry of Finance. A sample of nine upper-basic/open secondary and nine high schools were visited in Lusaka and Kafue (urban and periurban areas) and Chongwe District (a rural area). Inter- views were conducted and a questionnaire was administered to 460 pupils in randomly selected classes in grade 9 (upper-basic) and grade 11 (high school) in 14 schools. 2. In U.S. dollars (2000). 3. In 2005 the portion of the budget allocated to education rose to 25 percent. 4. This may overestimate the differences as a result of incomplete and unreliable data. REFERENCES Bennell, P. S., K. Hyde, and N. Swainson. 2002. "The Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Education Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa." Background paper. Centre for Inter- national Education, Sussex University. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). 2002. Government of Zambia. Government of the Republic of Zambia. 2001. "Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper." Lusaka. Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS). 1998. Government of Zambia Ministry of Education (MoE). 1996. The National Policy on Education--Educating Our Future. Lusaka. ------. 2000. "Report of the Restructuring and Decentralisation of the Ministry of Education." Lusaka. 48 · Sustainable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa ------.2002."EducationinZambia."Lusaka. ------.2003."SituationalAnalysisoftheEducationSector"Lusaka. ------.2003."StrategicPlan2003­2007."Lusaka. Oxford Policy Management (OPM). 2002. "Unit Cost Study of Education in Zambia." OPM, Oxford. UNESCO. 2002. Is the World on Track: EFA Global Monitoring Report, Paris.