1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l in Sub-Saharan Africa 2014/33 90891 A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Sustainable Energy for All Where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable energy in Sub-Saharan Africa for all? In 2010, only 32 percent of the region’s population had Why is this important? databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- access to electricity and 19 work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of percent to nonsolid fuel for Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. cooking. Traditional biomass the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to is by far the most important (SE4ALL) initiative track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. form of renewable energy. In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured Energy intensity levels vary All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives by the percentage of the population with an electricity tremendously across the region to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern connection and the percentage of the population with access to but are declining steadily. The energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household surveys region’s levels of access to the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database modern energy supplies are the in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy Database. lowest in the world, and the potential of modern renewables The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting • Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the is underexploited. their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their balances published by the International Energy Agency and the respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on United Nations. the resources and support that they are able to marshal. • Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency Elisa Portale is an energy economist in To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the Energy Sector objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed. of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total Management Assistance The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor- primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) Program (ESMAP) of the tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances Global Practice. global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available published by the International Energy Agency and the United Joeri de Wit is an Nations. energy economist in 1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access the Bank’s Energy and to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, Extractives Global and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions” refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). 2 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 1. The electricity access deficit in the region in 2010 access to electricity lived in urban areas. 68 percent of the popula- tion, some 589 million people, lacked access to electricity (roughly the same number of people as the populations of the United States Rural and Indonesia combined). 81 percent of those without electricity, 477 81% million people, live in rural areas (figure 1). With access Without access The challenge of electrification remains significant in most of the “In 2010, SSA was home to 32% 68% Urban SSA countries. Specifically, 80 percent of SSA countries (38 out of 47) 19% 580 million of the 1.2 billion have an access rate lower than 50 percent of the entire population people who lacked access (figure 2). South Sudan, Chad, Liberia, Burundi, Malawi, Niger and Central African Republic (CAR) have access rates lower than 10 worldwide.” Source: World Bank 2014. percent. In 2010, SSA was home to 580 million of the 1.2 billion peo- ple who lacked access worldwide. Nigeria had the greatest access deficit—82 million people, equivalent to the population of Germany. This note uses GTF data to provide a regional and country per- The share of the region’s population with access to electricity spective on the three SE4ALL goals in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)3. The rose from 23 percent (119 million people) in 1990 to approximately first section considers energy access. The following sections look at 32 percent (274 million people) in 2010. Access to electricity in the the renewable energy and energy efficiency goals. All data underlying region is far below the global rate, which rose from 76 percent in the information in this report can be found online at http://data. 1990 to 83 percent in 2010. worldbank.org/data-catalog/sustainable-energy-for-all. Over the two decades, 155 million Africans gained access to electricity (9 percent of the 1.7 billion people worldwide who gained access to electricity), while the subcontinent’s population grew What progress was made on universal access by 344 million. The number of people without access to electricity to energy services? therefore increased by 188 million (figure 4). In 2010, only 32 percent of the region’s population Two-thirds of the incremental electrification over the period occurred in urban areas (where 107 million people gained access, had access to electricity and 19 percent to nonsolid bringing the electrification rate from 62 to 63 percent), more than fuel for cooking twice the increase in rural areas (48 million people) (figure 4). More Achieving universal access to modern energy services is the “first modest growth in rural populations allowed the rural electrification among equals” of the three complementary goals of SE4ALL. Despite rate to increase more steeply, from 7 to 14 percent, despite a much progress in this region, a huge energy access deficit remains. lower level of electrification effort overall in the rural space. Electricity. Access to electricity in flexible, reliable, and sustain- Nigeria made particularly rapid progress, electrifying an average able forms brings a range of social and economic benefits, enabling of 1.7 million people each year after 1990, for an annual growth rate people to leap from poverty to a better future, enhancing the quality of 1.1 percent (against the global average annual increase of 1.3 of household life, and stimulating the broader economy. percent for the period). Nevertheless, in 2010 Nigeria remained the In 2010 SSA had an electrification rate of 32 percent, the lowest country with highest access deficit in the region (figure 4). Ghana and among the World Bank’s six lending regions. 72 percent of those with Senegal registered annual growth in excess of 2.1 percent. Only in South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal, did growth in access keep up with population growth. 3 For a list of countries that fall under Sub-Saharan Africa according to the World Bank regional classification system, see http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups 3 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 2. Electrification rates and deficits by country, 2010 a. Electrification rates (%) b. Access deficit (millions of people) Mauritius 100 Mauritius 0 South Africa 83 Seychelles 0.1 “Over the two decades, Gabon 82 São Tomé 0.1 Cape Verde 67 Cape Verde 0.2 155 million Africans Ghana 61 Gabon 0.3 Côte d’Ivoire 59 Comoros 0.4 gained access to electricity Guinea-Bissau 57 Guinea-Bissau 0.7 (9 percent of the São Tomé 57 Swaziland 0.8 Senegal 57 Botswana 1.1 1.7 billion people Cameroon 49 Gambia, The 1.2 Comoros 48 Namibia 1.3 worldwide who gained Nigeria 48 Lesotho 1.8 access to electricity), Namibia 44 Congo, Rep. 2.5 Botswana 43 Mauritania 2.8 while the subcontinent’s Congo, Rep. 37 Eritrea 3.5 Zimbabwe 37 Liberia 3.8 population grew by 344 Swaziland 35 Central African Republic 4.0 million. The number of Angola 35 Togo 4.3 Eritrea 33 Sierra Leone 5.2 people without access Gambia, The 31 Senegal 5.4 Somalia 29 Benin 6.4 to electricity therefore Seychelles 29 Somalia 6.6 increased by 188 million.” Sudan 29 Zimbabwe 7.9 Benin 28 Burundi 7.9 Togo 28 Guinea 8.0 Ethiopia 23 Côte d’Ivoire 8.1 Kenya 23 South Africa 8.7 Guinea 20 Rwanda 9.5 Zambia 19 Ghana 9.6 Mauritania 18 South Sudan 9.8 Lesotho 17 Cameroon 10.0 Mali 17 Zambia 10.7 Congo, Dem. Rep. 15 Chad 10.8 Mozambique 15 Angola 12.5 Tanzania 15 Mali 12.8 Uganda 15 Malawi 13.6 Madagascar 14 Niger 14.1 Burkina Faso 13 Burkina Faso 14.3 Sierra Leone 12 Madagascar 17.8 Rwanda 11 Mozambique 19.9 Central African Republic 9 Uganda 28.5 Niger 9 Sudan 30.9 Malawi 9 Kenya 31.2 Burundi 5 Tanzania 38.2 Liberia 4 Congo, Dem. Rep. 55.9 Chad 4 Ethiopia 63.9 South Sudan 2 Nigeria 82.4 Source: World Bank 2014. 4 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Cooking fuels. The World Health Figure 3. Progress in access to electricity in urban and rural areas, 1990–2010 Organization estimates that in 2012 Population with access in 1990 about 4.3 million deaths occurred Rural 28 48 477 Incremental access in 1990-2010 worldwide because of exposure to Population without access in 2010 household air pollution caused by smoke Urban 91 107 113 from the incomplete combustion of fuels “Two-thirds of the such as wood, coal, and kerosene. Use Total 119 155 589 incremental electrification of such fuels for cooking also poses over the period occurred substantial risks to safety, causing burns 0 500 1000 1500 2000 and injuries. population (million) in urban areas (where The share of the region’s population 107 million people gained with access to nonsolid fuel for cooking Source: World Bank 2014. access, bringing the rose from 14 percent (73 million people) electrification rate from in 1990 to approximately 19 percent The challenge of access to nonsolid fuel remains significant in 62 to 63 percent), more (164 million people) in 2010 (figure 5), far below the global access most of countries of the region. In 40 of the 47 SSA countries, less rate, which increased from 47 percent (2.5 billion people) in 1990 to than half of the population has access to nonsolid fuel. In 21 coun- than twice the increase approximately 59 percent (4.1 billion people) in 2010. tries the access rate is lower than 10 percent. The 10 SSA countries in rural areas (48 million Thus 92 million people gained access to nonsolid fuels in the with the greatest access deficits are home to 465 million, equal to people).” period 1990–2010 (5 percent of the 1.6 billion people worldwide the combined populations of the United States and Russia. who gained access during the period). But the region’s population The largest increases in access to nonsolid fuels occurred in increased by 340 million, meaning that the number of people without South Africa and Nigeria. In South Africa, an additional one million access to nonsolid fuels therefore increased by 248 million. Some people gained access each year after 1990, a growth rate of 2 689 million people in the region were among the 2.8 billion world- percent (figure 6). In Nigeria the numbers were three million and a 0.5 wide who, in 2010, still used solid fuel for cooking. percent annual rate of growth. The global annual increase in access Figure 4.  The 20 countries with the greatest annual increases in access to electricity, 1990–2010 3 3 Annual incremental population growth annual growth in access (%) Annual incremental access growth population (million) Annual growth in access (%) 2 2 1 1 0 0 ire a a ia a . a n n l ia ola da e ar e so li nin ia ga ep Ma eri ic an ny iqu bw da roo iop an mb sc Fa an vo Afr ne g Be .R Ke Gh Su Nig nz An ga mb ba me Eth Ug d’I Za ina Se em uth Ta da Zim za Ca te rk ,D Ma So Mo Co Bu o ng Co Source: World Bank 2014. 5 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 5. Access to nonsolid fuels by country, 2010 a. Access to nonsolid fuel (%) b. Deficit in access to nonsolid fuel (millions of people without access) Seychelles 100 Seychelles 0 Mauritius 100 Mauritius 0 South Africa 85 São Tomé 0.1 The challenge of access Gabon 74 Cape Verde 0.2 Cape Verde 68 Gabon 0.4 to nonsolid fuel remains Botswana 63 Comoros 0.5 significant in most of Senegal 49 Swaziland 0.7 Namibia 45 Botswana 0.8 countries of the region. Angola 45 Namibia 1.3 Swaziland 45 Lesotho 1.3 In 40 of the 47 SSA Mauritania 42 Guinea-Bissau 1.5 countries, less than half Eritrea 40 Gambia, The 1.6 Lesotho 39 Mauritania 2.0 of the population has Zimbabwe 34 Congo, Rep. 3.1 Comoros 29 access to nonsolid fuel. São Tomé 29 Eritrea 3.2 Liberia 3.9 In 21 countries the Nigeria 26 Central African Republic 4.2 Cameroon 25 Togo 5.7 access rate is lower than Congo, Rep. 23 Sierra Leone 5.8 Côte d’Ivoire 22 10 percent. The 10 SSA Senegal 6.4 Sudan 21 South Africa 7.6 countries with the greatest Kenya 20 Burundi 8.0 Zambia 17 Benin 8.1 access deficits are home Ghana 16 Zimbabwe 8.3 to 465 million, equal to Chad 12 Somalia 8.9 Gambia, The 9 Guinea 9.7 the combined populations Benin 9 Chad 9.9 Burkina Faso 8 Rwanda 10.4 of the United States and Congo, Dem. Rep. 7 Angola 10.5 Russia. Togo 6 Zambia 10.8 Tanzania 6 Malawi 14.4 Mozambique 5 Cameroon 14.8 Somalia 5 Niger 14.9 Burundi 4 Mali 15.1 Niger 4 Burkina Faso 15.1 Central African Republic 4 Côte d’Ivoire 15.4 Uganda 4 Madagascar 20.3 Malawi 3 Ghana 20.4 Guinea 3 Mozambique 22.2 Guinea-Bissau 2 Uganda 32.2 Ethiopia 2 Kenya 32.6 Liberia 2 Sudan 34.6 Sierra Leone 2 Tanzania 42.3 Madagascar 2 Congo, Dem. Rep. 61.3 Mali 2 Ethiopia 81.1 Rwanda 2 Nigeria 117.8 Source: World Bank 2014. 6 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 6.  The 20 countries with the greatest annual increases in access to nonsolid fuels, 1990–2010 3 3 Annual incremental population growth annual growth in access (%) Annual incremental access growth population (million) Annual growth in access (%) 2 2 “At 70 percent, the share of renewable energy in SSA is much higher that the 1 1 global share of 18 percent. However traditional 0 0 a a n ola l on . a na ire ia ia a d so ia e ue . a ga ep ep ic eri ny tre nd bw da a an mb tan biomass accounted for Fa a Ch biq ero vo Afr ne g .R ,R Ke Gh Su a Nig Eri An nz ba Ug d’I Za uri na Se m m go m uth Ta Zim za Ma De Ca rki te n almost 90% of that share.” Co Mo So Co Bu o, ng Co Source: World Bank 2014. averaged 1.1 percent between 1990 and 2010. Angola, Gabon, South Africa, Botswana, and Senegal all increased access to nonsolid fuels Figure 7.  Total final consumption of renewable energy at a rate of around 2 percent per year. But only in Angola and Senegal by technology, 1990–2010 did the growth in the number of people with access keep up with growth of the population. 12 80 Other RE 10 70 Hydro How has the share of renewable energy in final Modern biomass 60 Traditional biomass consumption evolved? 8 RE share in TFEC 50 Traditional biomass is by far the most important form exajoules percent 6 40 of renewable energy in the region 30 Global consumption of renewable energy grew from 40 exajoules (EJ) 4 20 in 1990 to almost 60 EJ in 2010. Meanwhile, global total final energy 2 consumption (TFEC) grew at a comparable pace of 1.1 percent during 10 1990–2000 and 2.0 percent during 2000–10. As a result, the share of 0 0 renewable energy in the global energy mix remained relatively stable, 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 rising from 16.6 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2010. At 70 percent, the share of renewable energy in the SSA region’s Source: World Bank 2014. TFEC is vastly higher, and it remained steady during the two decades under study (figure 7). Traditional biomass accounted for almost 90 7 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 8. Renewable energy’s share of total final energy consumption, 2010 World SSA Ethiopia “In about half of the Zambia countries modern Tanzania renewables as a share Mozambique Nigeria of TFEC declined Zimbabwe between 1990 and 2010, Cameroon implying that final energy Eritrea Kenya consumption grew faster Togo that the consumption of Côte d’Ivoire modern renewables.” Sudan Ghana Traditional biomass Gabon Modern biomass Angola Hydro Liquid biofuels Benin Wind Congo, Rep. Solar Senegal Biogas Namibia Geothermal Botswana Waste South Africa 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percent Source: World Bank 2014. percent of that share, some 7.7 EJ, while modern biomass accounted percent in Ethiopia (figure 8). However, the distribution of consump- for much of the remainder.4 tion by renewable resource type tended to be quite similar across The share of renewables in TFEC varied substantially across SSA countries, reflecting that of the region as a whole. Notable exceptions countries in 2010, from 20 percent in South Africa to almost 100 were Namibia, where TFEC from hydro resources matched that from traditional biomass, and Kenya, where geothermal energy has a small 4 but significant presence. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization defines traditional biomass as “woodfuels, agricultural by-products, and dung burned for cooking and heating purposes.” In developing The growth of solar energy consumption in the region was countries, traditional biomass is still widely harvested and used in an unsustainable and unsafe high compared with global rates, averaging 27.8 percent per year way. It is mostly traded informally and non-commercially. So-called modern biomass, by con- trast, is produced in a sustainable manner from solid wastes and residues from agriculture and between 1990 and 2010 (figure 9), albeit from a very low base. The forestry. The informal term “modern renewables” as used in this note denotes all renewables annual rates of growth in consumption of geothermal energy except traditional biomass. 8 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 9. Annual regional and world growth in renewable energy consumption by technology, 1990–2010 30 27.8 compound annual growth rate (%) 25.0 25 SSA 20 World “The growth of solar energy 16.7 15 consumption in the region 11.1 11.4 10 was high compared with 7.4 6.6 5.1 5 3.5 global rates, averaging 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.3 1.2 27.8 percent per year 0 Traditional Modern Hydro Geothermal Waste Liquid Solar Biogas Wind between 1990 and 2010, biomass biomass biofuels albeit from a very low Source: World Bank 2014. base. The annual rates of growth in consumption Figure 10. Change in consumption of modern forms of renewable (7.4 percent) and hydropower (3.5 percent) are perhaps more reveal- of geothermal energy (7.4 energy in selected countries as a percentage of TFEC, ing. Regional growth in biomass consumption was on par with global percent) and hydropower 1990–2000 growth rates, while no significant consumption of other renewable (3.5 percent) are perhaps resources was registered. Mozambique In about half of the countries modern renewables as a share of more revealing.” Ghana TFEC declined between 1990 and 2010, implying that final energy Sudan consumption grew faster than the consumption of modern renew- Zimbabwe ables. In Cote d’Ivoire and Benin, a doubling of TFEC paired with an Tanzania absolute decline in biofuel consumption caused a large reduction in Angola Senegal Modern biomass the penetration of modern renewable energy. On the other hand, the Ethiopia Hydro share of modern renewables in TFEC increased in Mozambique (7.4 Liquid biofuels South Africa percent) and Ghana (6.5 percent). Wind Zambia Solar Nigeria Biogas How did the region fare on energy efficiency? Togo Geothermal Kenya Waste Energy intensity levels vary tremendously across the Botswana region and are declining steadily Gabon Cameroon Energy intensity. Globally, energy intensity decreased by –1.3 per- Côte d’Ivoire cent annually (in CAGR terms) over the 20 years between 1990 and Benin 2010. With this as the starting point for measuring future progress in -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 global energy efficiency, the SE4ALL global objective is therefore an percent annual reduction in energy intensity of -2.6 percent for the period 2010–30. Source: World Bank 2014. 9 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a The CAGR of energy intensity in the SSA region averaged -1.2 rapid decrease in energy intensity was registered in São Tomé and percent between 1990 and 2010 (figure 11), declining slightly less Principe—some -5.9 percent per year. At the other extreme, energy rapidly than the global rate. However the regional rate improved intensity in the Seychelles increased by 7 percent per year. substantially over time, from -0.2 percent between 1990 and 2000 to In 2010 the energy intensity of the region as a whole was 7.3 -2.1 percent between 2000 and 2010. At the country level, the most MJ/$2005, slightly below the global average of 7.9 MJ/$2005. Across “The CAGR of energy intensity in the SSA region Figure 11. Level of energy intensity in 2010 and change in level, 1990–2010 averaged -1.2 percent between 1990 and 2010, a. Primary energy intensity, 2010 b. Energy intensity CAGR, 1990–2010 declining slightly less World 7.9 World -1.3 rapidly than the global rate. SSA 7.3 SSA -1.2 Botswana 3.8 However the regional rate Congo, Rep. 4.0 São Tomé and Principe Uganda -5.9 -3.9 Gabon 4.4 Mauritania -3.8 improved substantially over Cape Verde 4.4 Sudan -3.7 Comoros 4.7 Niger -3.6 time, from -0.2 percent Namibia 5.0 Mozambique -3.6 Angola 5.8 Guinea -3.0 between 1990 and 2000 to Mauritius Senegal 6.5 6.6 Burkina Faso -2.6 Chad -2.5 Mali 6.6 -2.1 percent between 2000 Gambia, The 7.0 Mali Malawi -2.3 -2.2 Cameroon 7.4 Central African Republic -2.1 and 2010.” Sudan 7.7 Nigeria -2.1 Chad 7.9 Ghana -2.1 Niger 7.9 Botswana -1.8 Rwanda 8.6 Angola -1.4 Seychelles 9.0 Ethiopia -1.4 Guinea-Bissau 9.2 Tanzania -1.2 Mauritania 9.3 Zambia -1.0 Lesotho 10.6 Liberia -1.0 Malawi 10.7 Rwanda -0.9 Ghana 10.8 Lesotho -0.7 Central African Republic 11.9 South Africa -0.6 Côte d’Ivoire 12.0 Mauritius -0.6 South Africa 12.1 12.1 Cameroon -0.5 Eritrea Benin 12.1 Benin -0.4 Burkina Faso 12.6 Senegal 0 Kenya 13.6 Kenya 0.1 Madagascar 13.7 Congo, Rep. 0.2 Nigeria 14.0 Gambia, The 0.3 Tanzania 14.9 Guinea-Bissau 0.3 Swaziland 15.9 Sierra Leone 0.4 São Tomé and Principe 16.3 Namibia 0.7 Ethiopia 18.0 Cape Verde 0.9 Uganda 18.2 Gabon 1.0 Zambia 18.8 Madagascar 1.4 Togo 20.8 Togo 1.7 Mozambique 22.2 Burundi 2.2 Guinea 22.2 Côte d’Ivoire 2.3 Sierra Leone 26.7 Comoros 2.5 Burundi 33.3 Swaziland 3.1 Liberia 59.8 Seychelles 7.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -10 -5 0 5 10 MJ/$2005 percent Source: World Bank 2014. 10 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 12. Energy intensity by sector, 1990 and 2010 Figure 13. Energy savings owing to realized improvements in energy intensity, 1990–2010 Other sectors 7.4 30 World 5.5 Total primary energy supply 25 Primary energy savings 12.1 SSA 20 exajoules 9.7 “The SSA region is 9.0 15 World Industry 6.8 characterized by large 10 6.9 5 differences in energy SSA 4.5 0 1990 2000 2010 intensity across sectors 3.3 Agriculture World 2.1 Energy intensity 1990 and an industrial sector Energy intensity 2010 Source: World Bank 2014. 0.9 SSA 0.6 that is less energy intensive 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 than ‘Other sectors’.” MJ/$2005 PPP Source: World Bank 2014. the region energy intensity varied enormously, with that of Liberia reductions in energy intensity became marked after 1998. In 2010, being nearly 16 times that of Botswana. improvements in energy intensity saved the region 6.9 exajoules, or Energy intensity is an imperfect proxy for energy efficiency. This about 33 percent of its primary energy consumption. is because energy intensity is affected by other factors, such as Between 1990 and 2010, the largest energy savings in absolute shifts in the structure of the economy over time, typically from less terms were achieved by Nigeria (figure 14). However, as a percentage energy-intensive agriculture to higher energy-intensive industry and of primary energy supply, energy savings were largest in Uganda then back toward lower energy-intensive services. The SSA region is (61 percent). characterized by large differences in energy intensity across sectors and an industrial sector that is less energy intensive than “Other Where is the region headed? sectors” (figure 12). However, shifts in the relative economic weight of these sectors between 1990 and 2010 were limited and therefore The region’s levels of access to modern energy cannot account for substantial changes to the CAGR of energy supplies are the lowest in the world, and the intensity.5 Within each sector, substantial improvements in energy potential of modern renewables is underexploited intensity were achieved. Monitoring progress at the regional and country level provides a Energy savings. Energy savings in a given year are calculated much clearer picture of how the SSA region is moving toward the as the difference between (i) the energy that would have been con- SE4All goals. sumed in that year given the GDP and the level of energy intensity The region is still very far from reaching universal access to in 1990, and (ii) actual energy consumption in that year. In SSA, modern energy. In fact, some of the countries of the region have 5 the lowest rates in the world for access to electricity and nonsolid Final energy consumption can be broadly divided among the following major economic sectors: agriculture, industry, residential, transport, and services. For the purpose of the Global fuel for cooking (lower than 10 percent, in some cases). Moreover, Tracking Framework, residential, transport, and services are aggregated into a single category of gains in access between 1990 and 2010 were modest—on the “other sectors” (due to data limitations). Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposi- tion approach, we control for changes in economy wide energy intensity that are due to shifts order of 9 percent for electricity and 5 percent for nonsolid fuels. in the relative weights of the industrial, agricultural and other sectors (in $2005 PPP terms). 11 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a Figure 14. Cumulative primary energy supply, cumulative energy savings, and cumulative energy savings as a share of cumulative MAKE FURTHER primary energy supply, 1990–2010 CONNECTIONS a. Cumulative primary energy supply b. Cumulative energy savings c. Savings as a share of supply Live Wire 2014/28. “Tracking (exajoules) (exajoules) (percent) Progress Toward Providing South Africa 101 Nigeria 11 Uganda 61 Sustainable Energy for All in East Nigeria 81 Uganda 7 Mozambique 55 Ethiopia 18 Sudan 6 Asia and the Pacific,” by Elisa Mozambique 4 Burkina Faso 53 Kenya 12 Sudan 48 Portale and Joeri de Wit. Tanzania 12 Burkina Faso 2 Guinea 44 Sudan 12 Ethiopia 2 Malawi 26 Live Wire 2014/29. “Tracking Uganda 11 Guinea 2 Ghana 1 Niger 20 Zimbabwe 9 Progress Toward Providing Ghana 15 Angola 7 Mauritania 1 Sustainable Energy for All in Ghana 7 Tanzania 1 Nigeria 14 Eastern Europe and Central Mozambique 7 Malawi 1 Ethiopia 10 Côte d’Ivoire 6 Chad 0 Asia,” by Elisa Portale and Tanzania 7 Zambia 6 Mali 0 Angola 3 Joeri de Wit. Cameroon 5 Botswana 0 Zambia 0 Madagascar 4 Niger 0 South Africa 0 Live Wire 2014/30. “Tracking Guinea 4 Benin 0 Kenya -3 -3 Central African Rep. 0 Progress Toward Providing Burkina Faso 3 Cameroon -3 -3 Somalia 3 Angola 0 Sustainable Energy for All Sierra Leone 3 São Tomé and Principe 0 Madagascar -19 -19 in Latin America and the Burundi 2 Mauritius 0 Côte d’Ivoire -26 -26 Caribbean,” by Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. Source: World Bank 2014. Live Wire 2014/31. “Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy for All in the In renewable energy, the key challenge will be to move away References Middle East and North Africa,” from traditional biomass toward the consumption of more sustain- SE4ALL (Sustainable Energy for All Initiative). 2012. In Support of the by Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. able resources. The region is rich in potential resources, yet modern Objective to Achieve Universal Access to Modern Energy Services biomass, hydropower, and other modern renewables continue to by 2030. Technical Report of Task Force 1: New York. http://www. Live Wire 2014/32. “Tracking represent small shares of energy consumption. sustainableenergyforall.org/about-us. Progress Toward Providing In energy efficiency, the rate of decline in energy intensity World Bank. 2014. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for Sustainable Energy for All in accelerated between 1990 and 2010, a trend that, if it persists, is very All. Report 85415, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank. South Asia,” by Elisa Portale and promising. org/curated/en/2014/01/19164902/global-tracking-framework. Joeri de Wit. Given the scale of the challenge inherent in meeting the three SE4ALL goals, it is clear that a combination of bold policy measures Preparation of this note benefitted from comments by Morgan Bazilian, lead coupled with a supportive regulatory and institutional environment is energy specialist in the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice, required to support the requisite ramping up of delivery capacity and and Vivien Foster, a manager in that practice. financial flows to the energy sector. 12 Get Connected to Live Wire Get Connected to Live Wire Live Wires are designed for easy reading on the screen and for downloading The Live Wire series of online knowledge notes is an initiative of the World Bank Group’s Energy and self-printing in color or “Live Wire is designed and Extractives Global Practice, reflecting the emphasis on knowledge management and solu- black and white. tions-oriented knowledge that is emerging from the ongoing change process within the Bank for practitioners inside Group. 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Knowledge Notes and search alphabetically for Live Wires) issues of Live Wire will also be featured in the bi-monthly Newsletter World Bank Energy Digest. Each Live Wire will be peer-reviewed by seasoned practitioners in the Bank. Once a year, the Energy and Extractives Global Practice takes stock of all notes that appeared, reviewing their quality and identifying priority areas to be covered in the following year’s pipeline. e Pa c i f i c 2014/28 ainable energy for all in easT asia and Th 1 Tracking Progress Toward Providing susT https://openknowledge.worldbank.org A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRAC TIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy for All in East Asia and the Pacific where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable 2014/29 ia and cenTral as energy for all? in 2010, eaP easTern euroPe sT ainable en ergy for all in databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- g su v i d i n had an electrification rate of Why is this important? ess Toward Pro work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of 1 Tracking Progr 95 percent, and 52 percent of the population had access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. consumption of renewable (SE4ALL) initiative C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E EXTRA • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured energy decreased G E N O T E overall S E R I E S F OR THE ENERGY & Year of Sustainable Energy for A KNO WLED In declaring 2012 the “International by the percentage of the population with an electricity between 1990 and 2010, though All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be connection and the percentage of the population with access Energy modern forms grew rapidly. d Providing Sustainable accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household energy intensity levels are high Tracking Progress Towar services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification but declining rapidly. overall THE BOTTOM LINE energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy e and Central Asia trends are positive, but bold Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy for All in Eastern Europ stand efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). where does the region policy measures will be required setting Database. The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries on that frame- on the quest for sustainable to sustain progress. note is based renewable energy in the their own national targets databases— technical in a measures. way that is Thisconsistent with the overall of • Renewable energy. The share of energy for all? The region will publish an updated version energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy SE4ALL differ greatly in their ability Why is this important? spirit ofwork (World Bank the initiative. Because2014). countries to has near-universal access g objectives, some will make more rapid progress consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. of is critical to monitorin to pursue the the GTF three in 2015. that the GTF uses to electricity, and 93 percent Tracking regional trends for All in one areaThe while will excel and othersindicators primary data sources elsewhere, depending on their below. Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy the population has access Sustainab le Energy goals are summarized balances published by the International Energy Agency and the the progress of the towardand the three SE4ALL comparative advantages as well as on respective track starting progresspoints to nonsolid fuel for cooking. modern to are energy services is measured United Nations. initiative the resources and Energy access. Access support that they able to marshal. despite relatively abundant (SE4ALL) with an electricity connection Elisa Portale is an l Year of Sustainable Energy for To sustain percentage of by the momentum for the the population achievement of the SE4ALL 2• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency hydropower, the share In declaring 2012 the “Internationa energy economist in with access to nonsolid fuels. three global objectives objectives, andathe means of charting percentage of the population global progress to 2030 is needed. is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of renewables in energy All,” the UN General Assembly established the Energy Sector surveys and reported access to modern universalAssistance The World TheseBank and data are the collected International using household Energy Agency led a consor- of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total consumption has remained to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure Management Database and the World of theenergy intium of 15 renewable international in the World Bank’s Global agencies toElectrification establish the SE4ALL Global primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) energy the 2010 share of Program (ESMAP) relatively low. very high energy services, to double Database. measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to 1 t ’s Household provides Energy a system for regular rate of improvemen World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Tracking Framework Health (GTF), which Organization intensity levels have come and to double the global energy in the energy the global energy mix, Global Practice. (SE4ALL 2012). global reporting, based on Renewable energy. rigorous—yet of renewable The sharepractical, given available calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances questions the period 1990–2010 consumption down rapidly. The big in energy efficiency relative to percentage of total final energy published by the International Energy Agency and the United evolve Joeri withde Wit is an countries setting individual mix is measured by the Data used to are how renewables will The SE4ALL objectives are global, overall renewable energy resources. on the planet has access the from published Nations. inwith when every person picks up energy economist in a way that is consistent 1 The that is derived universal access goal will be achieved balances when energy demand their own national targets the Bank’s Energy and this indicator are obtained to modern energy services provided in their ability from energy through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, recent rates countries differ greatly calculate productive use and community services. The term “modern solutions” cookingNations. again and whether Because and energy for and the United Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural spirit of the initiative. Extractives Global Energy Agency 2 some will make more rapid progress by the refers to solutions International that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), those of efficiency is and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and of decline in energy intensity to pursue the three objectives, Practice. on their or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting efficiency. The rate of overall improvemen emissions rates at ort of energy near will excel elsewhere, depending Energy other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). of energy will continue. in one area while others liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). on annual growth rate (CAGR) and comparative advantages as well as approximated by the compound of total primary energy respective starting points intensity is the ratio that they are able to marshal. intensity, where energy the resources and support (GDP) measured in purchas- of the SE4ALL consumption to gross domestic product for the achievement energy intensity Elisa Portale is an To sustain momentum terms. Data used to calculate charting global progress to 2030 is needed. ing power parity (PPP) the International energy economist in objectives, a means of balances published by the Energy Sector International Energy Agency led a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the United Nations. Management Assistance agencies to establish the the GTF to provide a regional and tium of 15 international for regular This note uses data from Program (ESMAP) of the which provides a system for Eastern Tracking Framework (GTF), the three pillars of SE4ALL World Bank’s Energy and Extractives on rigorous—yet practical, given available country perspective on Global Practice. global reporting, based has access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when every person on the planet The universal access goal heating fuels, clean cooking fuels, clean energy economist in 1 agricultural provided through electricity, biomass (wood, charcoal, to modern energy services The term “modern cooking solutions” to include both traditional and briquettes), and Solid fuels are defined the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and energy for productive petroleum gas), and so on), processed fuels (including liquefied and forest residues, dung, involve electricity or gaseous at or near those of Extractives Global refers to solutions that overall emissions rates other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). liquefied petroleum gas