69082 Tajikistan: Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change Rasmus Heltberg, Anna Reva, and Salman Zaidi identifies Tajikistan as the most vulnerable country in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, due to its relatively Key Messages1 weak social and productive structures and very low adaptive capacity. Indeed, the country already suffers from land  Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse degradation, water scarcity, and a high frequency of impacts of global climate change, as it already disasters, at significant human and material costs. Two- suffers from low agricultural productivity, water thirds of the population lives in rural areas and depends on stress, and high losses from disasters. agriculture, a sector characterized by inefficient water use  Public awareness of the multiple consequences of and low productivity. Government policies that continue to climate change is high, with possible impacts on favor water-intensive cotton cultivation at the expense of health, natural disasters, and agriculture of greatest other crops heighten water scarcity problems. In the absence public concern. of effective safety nets, the poor (over half of Tajikistan’s population) are particularly vulnerable to adverse climate  Climate change can potentially deepen poverty events and other shocks. by lowering agricultural yields, raising food prices, and increasing the spread of water-borne diseases as well as the frequency and severity of disasters. Public Perceptions of Climate Change  Regions with greater dependence on agriculture The findings of a nationally representative household and lower socioeconomic indicators, particularly the survey commissioned for this study (P-LITS) show that east mountain area of the Region of Republican public awareness of the different consequences of climate Subordination (RRS), the Southern Sughd hills, and change is high and comparable to that in much richer Khatlon hills and lowlands, are most vulnerable to countries (figure 1). A majority of respondents (57 percent) climate change, with rural areas more at risk than felt they were either “very well informed� or “fairly well urban locations. informed� about the various potential climate change  Faster socioeconomic development is the best tool effects. When presented with a list of several possible for adaptation, since greater income diversification, adverse impacts of climate change (figure 2), “dangers improved health and education, and better access to posed by extreme hot/cold seasons that are harmful for services and infrastructure enhance the capacity of health� were cited as the most important concern by the households, particularly the poor, for autonomous highest share of respondents (30 percent), followed by adaptation. “increase in natural disasters� (25 percent), and “unpredictable/extreme weather that harms agricultural Tajikistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change production� (20 percent). Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of global climate change. In fact, a recent World Bank report, Transmission Channels and Distributional Impacts “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia,� According to the Second National communication of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention 1 The Knowledge Brief is based on the report “Tajikistan: on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the primary impact of Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change� climate change on the livelihoods of people in Tajikistan (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011). ECA Knowledge Brief Figure 1. Public Awareness of the Different  Increase in relative food prices. A 20 percent increase Consequences of Climate Change in relative food prices can increase the poverty rate by 100 16 percent and the poverty gap by 25 percent. 9 10 9 90  Reduction in agricultural wages. A 20 percent drop in 80 agricultural wages raises poverty by 2 percent and the Percent of respondents 33 37 34 70 poverty gap by 7 percent. This channel has a smaller 60 impact on poverty than the previous two because the 50 share of agricultural wages in the total income of most 40 48 48 households is insignificant. 30 49 20 10 All of these effects will have a stronger impact in rural areas 0 9 5 9 than in urban locations. This is because rural areas have a EU27 countries Kazakhstan Tajikistan much greater concentration of the population around the Very well informed Fairly well informed Not very well informed Not at all informed poverty line, so that even a modest decline in income or purchasing power will have a significant impact on poverty. Source: World Bank staff estimates based on 2010 P-LITS. Data for the 27 European Union member countries are from Europeans’ Attitude towards Climate Change Special Eurobarometer 300, Wave 69.2, Health. The major health impacts of climate change in September 2008. Tajikistan will come from increased thermal stress, water- borne diseases, and disaster effects. The poor are more Figure 2. Potential Climate Change Impacts of Greatest likely to suffer from the increased health risks due to (1) Public Concern (Percent of survey respondents) inability to cover out-of-pocket expenditures for medical 7 Extreme hot/cold seasons that are services, (2) higher susceptibility for water-borne diseases, harmful for health and (3) weaker immune systems stemming from 18 30 Increase in natural disasters (e.g. malnutrition and adverse living conditions. Analysis of the floods, fires, mudslides, etc.) 2007 Tajikistan Living Standards Survey data shows that Unpredictable and extreme weather 46 percent in the poorest quintile of households found it that harms agricultural production impossible or very difficult to pay for health care, compared Decline in fresh water availability for to 27 percent in the richest quintile. The incidence of drinking diarrhea is 1.4 times higher among the poorest quintile of 20 Decline in fresh water availability for households than in the richest. There are also pronounced irrigation 25 differences in calorie intake by welfare status. Children in Source: 2010 P-LITS the poorest quintile are almost twice as likely to be severely underweight as those in the richest. will be observed through 1) reduced water quantity and quality, affecting agriculture and health (by increasing Disasters. While there is insufficient survey data in water-borne diseases) and 2) increased frequency and Tajikistan to quantify the impact of disasters by welfare severity of disasters: mudflows, floods, and droughts. These status, evidence from global studies shows that the poor physical impacts can potentially deepen poverty and tend to be disproportionately affected by disasters, as their increase the possibility of permanent poverty traps. Poor housing is of inferior quality and often constructed in people already struggle with a number of stresses, such as hazardous locations. They also cannot afford the costs of malnutrition, inadequate housing and sanitation, and lack of migration to less hazard-prone locations, and after disasters productive employment opportunities. They thus have occur, it takes them longer to restore their livelihoods limited resources and a low capacity to adapt their because they tend to have nondiversified incomes and little livelihoods to changing conditions. savings. Agriculture. Adverse climate conditions can affect people’s Regional Vulnerability Index livelihoods through the following three channels:  Decline in agricultural productivity (yields). A geographically disaggregated picture of vulnerability to Simulations based on household data show that a 20 climate change (figure 3) is helpful for developing climate percent decline in agricultural productivity can increase change adaptation strategies and identifying the localities the national poverty rate by 13 percent and the poverty most in need of resources for adaptation. Vulnerability can gap by 24 percent. be understood as a function of (1) exposure to climate change and variability, (2) sensitivity to impacts of that exposure, and (3) ability to adapt to ongoing and future ECA Knowledge Brief changes. The assessment of vulnerability considers a range The regional index of vulnerability for Tajikistan is based of factors beyond the geophysical impacts of climate on the simple average of the exposure, sensitivity, and change, including its effects on assets and livelihoods, and adaptive capacity subindices. Indicators of past climate the social, economic, and institutional factors that are likely variability and the frequency of disasters are used to assess to shape adaptive capacity. The results are presented below. exposure to climate change; health, livelihood, food  Exposure to climate change and variability is highest in security, and demographic characteristics are used to Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and determine sensitivity to climate impacts; and social, the South Khatlon lowlands because of the high economic, and institutional characteristics are used to assess frequency of extreme temperatures and broad range of adaptive capacity. The results show that vulnerability varies intra-monthly temperature fluctuations. across different regions of Tajikistan according to  Sensitivity is highest in the east mountain area of the socioeconomic and institutional factors, while exposure and RRS because of its reliance on agriculture, high elevation exert smaller influences - geography is not sensitivity to disasters, and widespread food insecurity. destiny. Urban areas are by far the least vulnerable, while Sensitivity is also high in South Sughd, North-East RRS oblast, particularly its eastern mountainous areas, is Khatlon hills, Varzob-Zarafshan, and GBAO. the most vulnerable. Some of Tajikistan’s sparsely populated high altitude mountain zones are the least  Adaptive capacity varies substantially. It is highest in vulnerable, while the populated South Khatlon valley is GBAO because of its high levels of education and among the four most vulnerable areas, implying that income diversification. It is also good in the Southeast relatively vulnerable geographic areas can overlap with Khatlon hills, the West RRS lowlands, and the South centers of population and economic activity. Adaptation Khatlon area - locations with above-average income planners thus do not necessarily face a trade-off between levels and education. protecting the most vulnerable or the most economically Figure 3. Vulnerability Map for Tajikistan: 10 Rural important areas from the effects of climate change. Agro-Ecological Zones and One Composite Urban Area 0.7 To the extent that policy makers in the country wish to 0.6 Exposure Sensitivity 1-Adaptive capacity direct funding toward areas with the highest vulnerability to climate change, they should focus on rural areas, in 0.5 particular the eastern RRS mountains, Southern Sughd hills, 0.4 and Khatlon hills and lowlands. Although these zones are 0.3 vulnerable for somewhat different reasons, they share a high degree of sensitivity to climate change, particularly food 0.2 insecurity, disaster sensitivity, and reliance on agriculture. 0.1 They also have weak adaptive capacity, in part from low 0.0 income and education levels, and although their exposure is Pedhzkent-Shakhristan- Tursunzade-Shakrinav- 9: East RRS mountains 8: NE Khatlon hills 11: Urban 6: South Khatlon 1: North Sughd lowlands 3: RRS-Sogd: Varzob- 5: West RRS hils, 10: GBAO 7: Southeast Khatlon only moderate, their high sensitivity and fairly modest Rudaki-Vakhdat 4: West RRS lowland, Zarafshan-Surkhob 2: South Sughd hills, lowlands adaptive capacity make them vulnerable. By contrast, urban Ganchi Gissar hills areas as a composite group have the lowest vulnerability, mainly because they have the lowest sensitivity, high adaptive capacity, and average exposure. Adaptation Priorities: Strategies for the Future Climate change adaptation strategies for Tajikistan conform closely to its general poverty reduction and development objectives. In fact, development is the most important tool for adaptation, because greater income diversification and improved health and education, as well as better access to information, services, resources, and infrastructure, enhance the adaptation capacity of households, particularly for the Source: World Bank staff estimates based on data from several sources. poor. Darker areas on the map represent locations with the highest vulnerability. ECA Knowledge Brief Figure 4: Basic Elements of an Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Disaster Safety Nets & Agriculture & Economic Preparedness Insurance Rural Infrastructure Diversification Investments Risk Resilience Management Financial Services Preventive Healthcare INTEGRATED ADAPTATION Source: Adapted from L. Cord et al., “Climate Change and Poverty: Towards an Integrated Policy Framework for Adaptation,� PREM Economics of Climate Change, Discussion Papers (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008). The findings of the P-LITS survey also reflect the close preparedness in the health sector. It will also be important to connection between adaptation and development spending. increase access to clean drinking water to reduce the Over half of respondents identified improved extension incidence of water-borne diseases. services, the provision of more resilient seeds and clean drinking water, and investment in the increased availability Strengthening risk management will require greater of electricity as key priorities for government spending on improvements in disaster management, enhanced access to adaptation. These priorities are also in line with the latest financial services (particularly in rural areas), and expanded Poverty Reduction Strategy for Tajikistan. safety nets and insurance products. Improving early warning systems, strengthening public infrastructure (e.g., river bank Devising an effective adaptation strategy requires that dikes and levees), constructing shelters, and working with adequate attention be directed towards two main areas: (1) communities to build their capacity to prevent and respond building resilience to strengthen the ability of households to disasters are good examples of disaster management and communities, as well as local and national activities that have already been undertaken in Tajikistan. governments, to withstand negative climate impacts and (2) Significant investment will be needed to scale up such improving the risk management capacity of households, initiatives to all vulnerable locations. It is also important to particularly the poor, to cope with the increased risks improve the regulatory framework of the banking sector and associated with climate change (figure 4). support the development of microfinance institutions to help households and small businesses accumulate assets, Building greater resilience will require investments in diversify livelihoods/production, and develop coping agriculture and rural infrastructure, economic mechanisms that will make them less vulnerable to climate diversification, and preventive health care. Agricultural variability and extremes. Furthermore, flexible safety net reforms should focus on removing constraints that tie programs should be developed that address the needs of the farmers to cotton cultivation, creating incentives for chronic poor and that can be scaled up in case of a disaster efficient water management, and ensuring secure land titles. or other shock. The development of extension services will also be necessary to promote sustainable land management, facilitate diversification towards less water-dependent About the Authors crops, and increase agricultural productivity. Building From the World Bank, Rasmus Heltberg is a Senior greater resilience to climate change will also entail more Technical Specialist with the Social Development off-farm livelihood opportunities to reduce dependence on Department; Anna Reva is an Operations Officer with the climate-sensitive activities like agriculture. This will Poverty Reduction and Equity Department; and Salman necessitate improvements in the business climate, skill Zaidi is Lead Economist for the Poverty Reduction and building efforts, and infrastructure strengthening. Lastly, Economic Management Unit of the Europe and Central Asia health reforms should emphasize preventive measures, Region. improvements in hygiene, and strengthening disaster “ECA Knowledge Brief� is a regular series of notes highlighting recent analyses, good practices and lessons learned from the development work program of the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region http://www.worldbank.org/eca