Rural Development and Environment 120 4\OSAL g48|k October 1998 so / , O,p Findings reports on ongoing operational, economic, and sector work carried out by the World Bank and its member governments in the Africa Region. It is published periodically l ^ N K I by the Knowledge Management and Leaming Center on behalf of the Region. The views expressed W'O R L D BA in Findings are those of the author/s and should not be attributed to the World Bank Group. Climate change and Sub- C?NAND Saharan Africa: Issues and opportunities 22119 The climate change issue milder winters and wetter sum- U ) _mers. Higher precipitation and The possibility of long-term cli- warmer winters are expected to mate change is linked to an lead to the spread of disease vec- increase in global carbon dioxide, tors into new areas. Even a small (C02) concentration in the atmos- increase in global temperature phere, together with a few other will lead to thermal expansion of greenhouse gases (GHG). This the oceans which will cause rises increase is at least partly the in sea levels that may threaten result of the influences of human low-lying coastal areas and river activities on nature such as deltas. Some impacts of global exhaust gas emissions from vehi- warming may be quite the oppo- cles, coal burning for energy, and site of what people may expect. deforestation. An increase in the For example, snowfall may amount of C02 will lead to increase in some of the colder increased trapping of solar heat in regions because warmer ocean air I _ the atmosphere, giving rise to the may bring a higher amount of expectation that the climate will moisture into cold areas and drop be warmer although mitigating more snow on land which is influences exist. already so cold that an increase in V A warmer global climate may temperature of a degree or two lead to long-term weather still is well below freezing point. changes causing impacts not yet The now well-known El Nifio fully understood; the impacts will effect is a natural climate variabil- also vary according to region. The ity event that has been occurring anticipated temperature increase more or less frequently long resulting from climate change is before any change in climate was of not so much direct concern as predicted. However, questions the possible indirect influences it have arisen as to the possibility may have on our daily lives. In that global warming may lead to general, a warmer climate will stronger and more frequent El lead to increased evaporation Nifios. from the oceans and more precip- Largely due to these potential itation. Of more concern are the threats to development and indications that even a very small human lives, the World Bank is increase in global temperature getting involved in a range of - ~ may lead to an increase in activities under the heading of cli- extreme weather events such as mate change, which is slightly stronger storms and hurricanes, misleading since most of these worse droughts and floods, activities refers to climate vari- changes or shifts in seasons, ability. Climate change science is not meteorology and weather fore- casting, although meteorological data is a necessary basis for cli- mate change prediction. Climate Mean temperature Mean temperature change consists of short- and medium-term climate variability together with long-term gradual Climate variability without Climate cha ige climate change (changes in annu- climate change al average temperature). Real cli- mate change is a very slow f/ \ J , process and is mostly defined through large global simulation models (GCM). Climate variability deals only with the variations in Year Year weather as we know it over short periods of time. Fig. 1. shows the Fi 1 relationship between climate vari- g. ability and climate change. It is important to note that glob- Model results can nevertheless because of the high degree of al circulation model results are provide insights regarding the uncertainty relating to climate not weather predictions, but are important factors and their inter- consequences at regional levels. scenarios describing a possible dependencies and sensitivities. However, rapid scientiflc advances future climate situation under a Most of these scenarios are still are being made to improve region- set of variables with given values. presented on a global scale al climate modeling. Climate change and Africa lation growth, (ii) economic clear that continued high rates of growth; (iii) energy intensity, i.e. population growth would lead to Climate change is likely to impact the amount of energy consumed considerable increases in African seriously on Africa. Increased per unit output; (iv) use of fossil GHG emissions into the next cen- intensity of droughts, floods and fuels; (v) deforestation rates; and tury, even if per capita emissions changes to growing seasons may (vi) burning of vegetation. are kept at a low level. Second, have significant implications for It is commonly argued that GHG African countries will make a soil productivity, water supply, emissions from development pro- number of strategic decisions food security, and in turn human jects in Africa should be paid only through the development process welfare and poverty, as well as minor attention for three main that will significantly affect emis- deleterious and, in many cases, reasons: (i) Present GHG emis- sions. One example is the choice irreversible impacts on biological sions from Africa are negligible on of energy source (non-renewables diversity. a global scale; (ii) climate change versus renewables, or coal versus Current GHG emissions from is a problem that is largely caused gas in Southern Africa). Third, Africa are of little importance on a by GHG emissions from industrial land use change, largely deforesta- global scale, and have contributed countries, and hence, these coun- tion, is the dominant source of only a negligible share to the tries should bear the main respon- GHG emissions in Africa. Fourth, build-up of GHGs in the atmos- sibility and the major costs of by actively participating in global phere so far. Still, Africa's share of reducing emissions; and (iii) the climate change negotiations, global emissions may increase cause-effect relationship is com- Africa could attract significant considerably in the future. In a plex and our knowledge about cli- financial and technological trans- "worst case" scenario, African mate change and its potential fers through joint implementation emissions could become compa- impacts is relatively tentative. mechanisms and carbon invest- rable to those of other regions However, these factors do not nec- ment opportunities. There are towards the end of next century. essarily mean that emissions are thus strong arguments for inter- Variables that produce the sce- irrelevant in an African context. nalizing the global consequences nario variations include (i) popu- First, as indicated earlier, it is of development actions in Africa. Impacts of climate change on ty to adapt to changes. Thus, it Due to time lags, the climate development seems obvious that improved change impacts of present adaptation capability will be of emissions may not be evident Climate change may affect devel- higher priority than GHG emis- for many decades to come, opment directly through changes sion reductions among African whereas irreversible impacts in precipitation, evaporation and countries. can only be avoided by antic- hydrology, sea-level rise, and The inclusion of climate ipatory measures. Traditional changes in the occurrence of change concerns in development project-level EAs, however, extreme weather events (floods, projects falls to some degree tend to be reactive and more droughts, storms) that would under the responsibility of envi- concerned with the mitiga- impact on primary production, ronmental assessments (EA). tion of impacts than selec- ecological systems, public health However, the inclusion of climate tion and design of alternative and poverty. change in EAs poses a challenge projects or strategies. to the World Bank O It is expected that climate Impact on society and and other donors change may have significant natural resources because of a num- impacts on the social and eco- Impacts with ber of factors that nomic environment, while EAs climate change have to be added to traditionally have concentrat- the already ed on impacts on the natural C = =: ~ acknowledged prob- bio-physical environment. mpacts_without lems mentioned pre- Impacts without viously. These are: Adapting to climate change climate change I Climate change Adjustment to climate change has is a transboundary been the standard climate policy Fig 2. Development impacts Time and global problem, issue for African countries. whereas EAs only Adaptation options are of two rarely include impacts main types: reactive, which are It is anticipated that a given at the international level. measures taken in response to change in climate will result in Climate change is the cumu- climate change, and preventive more adverse socio-economic lative effect of a huge number measures taken in advance of cli- impacts in Africa than in other of individually insignificant mate change to minimize or offset parts of the world. This relates to GHG emissions. EAs normal- adverse impacts. Suggested adap- several factors related to the vul- ly focus on the local and tation strategies for Africa con- nerability of society and the sen- regional effects of individual centrate on the reduction of vul- sitivity of the environment. projects. Thus, even if GHG nerability to current climatic Important factors here are high emissions were accounted events, as well as the inclusion of dependency on bio-fuels, high for, they would be negligible adaptation policies in planning for dependency on the agriculture at this level. long-term sustainable develop- and forest sectors, restricted pop- ® The complex cause-effect ment. Adaptation measures are ulation mobility, poor health facil- relationship makes it diffi- relevant for a variety of natural ities, high population growth cult to assess the magnitude resources and socio-economic rates and low material standards. and direction of climate sectors in Africa such as natural Furthermore, countries in Africa change impacts, particularly ecosystems, agriculture, managed tend to have a much higher share at the regional level. forests, water resources, coastal of their economy dependent on ®) Response strategies to cli- zones, energy, and infrastructure. climate-sensitive sectors such as mate change will require Preventive adaptation options agriculture than is the case on international efforts that at are considered on the basis of two other continents. Developing the national level may chal- basic criteria, namely flexibility countries in general have a low lenge existing sector policies and the potential for net benefits. institutional and financial capaci- and institutional frameworks. Adaptation options should be implemented now if they yield net benefits indepen- farmers can reduce vulnerability to climate change. dent of climate change ("no-regrets"). High priority Improved education for farning communities will should be given to the preventive adaptation options increase mobility, income, and increase material that would not be effective if implemented as reactive standards and thus reduce vulnerability to climate policies. Examples of situations where preventive change. Likewise, improvements in public health will policies are needed relate to irreversible or cata- increase the population's resistance to climate strophic impacts, when decisions affect long-term change and the impacts of disease vectors spreading investments, and when trends are unfavorable. into new areas. Reduction of vulnerability to climate change is probably a more realistic adaptation policy for Africa than efforts to reduce GHG emissions. This vulnera- Hernes, H. et al., A Climate StrategyforAfnca. Towards bility relates to several key sectors. A more compre- Environmentally Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan bility relates to several key sectors. A more compre- Africa, AFTES Post-UNCED series, Paper Nc. 10. hensive illustration of adaptation to climate change World Bank, 1995. vulnerability would need a separate article, but a cou- ple of examples can be mentioned here the depen- UNEP/GEF, "Country Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessments" (Estonia, Pakistan, dency on bio-fuels constitutes a serious energy man- Antigua & Barbuda, Cameroon). Draft reports. 1997. agement issue in Africa, often leading to local defor- estation. Thus, increasing the range of substitution Ringius, L. et al., Climate Change in Africa - Issues and Challenges in Agriculture and Waterfor Sustainable possibilities for household energy consumption also Development. CICERO Report 1996:8. represents an adaptation measure. In agriculture, relatively small climatic changes may have profound For more information on this subject. please contact Amne effects on the fanning capacity. Agricultural research Dalfelt Rm. J 312704W33o Tel. nok. 1202) 45S1e95; promoting drought-resistant seeds or climate-adapt- e-mail address: adalfelt@worldbank.org ed species, or developing new sources of income for 0 I.in ing - : . . Findings would also be of interest to: _*_l__II nLetters commernits, and ruests for publ iat onsthat areM R0 Name______________________________________ not available ;at the World Bank Books re sh be addressed to: Institution ____;_________________________ Editor, Findings A _ Knowledge Management and Learnig ICen er Afrca Region. World Bank 1018 HSto., N.C. R2035- 701X _ __ __ E mail: pmohan@oworldbank.org .. ....~~~_ __ __ .. _,,,,__ ___.... .' _ ____A_________________57Si00002>00ji tX$