BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES IN THAILAND SYNTHESIS REPORT The World Bank in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security and Chulalongkorn University June 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external collaborators. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Photos: All photos: National Geographic Thailand/© Hannares Haripai BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES IN THAILAND SYNTHESIS REPORT The World Bank in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security and Chulalongkorn University June 2025 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is the product of a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security (MSDHS), and the Chulalongkorn University. The World Bank team extends its deep gratitude to Professor Kanok Wongtrangan (Deputy Chief Advisor to MSDHS Minister), Professor Vipan Prachuabmoh (Minister’s Advisor), and all individuals and organizations whose contributions were instrumental in shaping the findings and recommendations presented in this report. The report was prepared by the World Bank team led by Pamornrat Tansanguanwong (Senior Social Development Specialist). The report was authored by Sarah Geithner, Pamornrat Tansanguanwong and Sutthana Vichitrananda. The work also benefited from the technical expertise of Ruttiya Bhula-or, Orawan Prasitsiriphon, and Chutaporn Amrapala from the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University; Pongsak Suttinon from the Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University; and Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva, (Lead Economist) whose support in data analysis, modeling, and research synthesis was instrumental. We extend our special appreciation to Ingo Wiederhofer (Practice Manager) and Ditte Fallesen (Senior Social Development Specialist) for their technical guidance, which provided strategic direction and strengthened the analytical framework of the report. We are also grateful to the peer reviewers, Abidah Billah Setyowati (Senior Social Development Specialist) and Sailesh Tiwari (Lead Economist) for their insightful feedback, which enhanced the quality and relevance of this work. The Thailand Country Management Unit, including Fabrizio Zarcone (Country Manager), Ulrich Schmitt (Portfolio Manager), Rawong Rajvanit (Senior Operations Officer), and Vachraras Pasuksuwan (Operations Analyst), provided essential leadership and support throughout the process. The report’s successful completion was further enabled by the logistical coordination of Angkanee Luangpenthong (Program Assistant) and Phonthanat Uruhamanon, whose efforts ensured effective stakeholder engagement and smooth implementation of research activities. We extend our sincere appreciation to all who contributed their time, expertise, and insights to this endeavor. Their collaboration has been instrumental in advancing efforts to the completion of this report. ii Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand  TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements..............................................................................................................................................ii Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................vii 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation ................ 5 2.1 National climate and disaster policies, plans, and institutions.......................................................................... 5 2.2 Local-level climate and disaster risk management................................................................................................7 2.3 Ministry of Social Development and Human Security (MSDHS)........................................................................8 3. Thailand’s Climate Risks ...............................................................................................................................11 3.1 Floods.................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Drought............................................................................................................................................................................... 12 3.3 Extreme Heat.................................................................................................................................................................... 12 3.4 Coastal Erosion................................................................................................................................................................ 13 4. Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand............................................................15 4.1 Mapping Climate Risks.................................................................................................................................................. 15 4.2 MSDHS-Supported Vulnerable Populations and Households ........................................................................ 18 4.3 Vulnerable Populations in Climate Risk Areas......................................................................................................20 4.4 Infrastructure Available for Use as Temporary Shelters by Vulnerable Populations................................22 4.5 Economic Costs of Floods in Thailand and Insights on Vulnerable People...............................................23 5. Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand ............ 25 5.1 Case Study Selection and Analytical Framework................................................................................................26 5.2 Case study findings and lessons.............................................................................................................................. 27 5.3 Managing climate change and disaster risks locally..........................................................................................32 6. Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 35 To improve data for climate and disaster risk management decision-making:..................................................35 To strengthen local climate governance and community resilience:.....................................................................39 To strengthen gender aspects in MSDHS climate risk and disaster management:.......................................... 44 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand iii  LIST OF FIGURES Figure A: Vulnerable populations supported by MSDHS (Data as of May 2025)................................................ix Figure B: Conceptual Framework for Assessing Resilience.......................................................................................xi Figure 1: National Climate Adaptation Goals (Year 2023-2037)............................................................................... 6 Figure 2: An Expanded Institutional Framework for Climate Adaptation................................................................7 Figure 3: Projecting Climate Change for Drought......................................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Projecting Climate Change for Flooding....................................................................................................... 17 Figure 5: Projecting Climate Change for Heat............................................................................................................... 18 Figure 6: The Vulnerable People in Thailand................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 7: Vulnerable populations living in high and very high flood-risk areas.................................................. 21 Figure 8: Vulnerable populations living in high and very high drought-risk areas............................................. 21 Figure 9: Vulnerable populations living in high and very high extreme heat-risk areas...........................................................................................22 Figure 10: Vulnerable populations living in high and very high coastal erosion-risk areas.............................22 Figure 11: Areas of high flood risk with registered population, vulnerable population and temporary shelters provided by DDPM..............................................................................................................................23 Figure 12: Case Study Locations.........................................................................................................................................26 Figure 13: Conceptual Framework for Assessing Resilience..................................................................................... 27 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Overview of key Vulnerable Population Overseen by the MSDHS.....................................................20 Table 2: Resilience Pathways ...........................................................................................................................................30 Table 3: Resilience Strategies...........................................................................................................................................32 iv Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand  ACRONYMS CODI Community Organizations Development Institute DCCE Department of Climate Change and Environment DDPM Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation DWFD Department of Women’s Affairs and Family Development ICTC Information and Communication Technology Center MAAC Ministry of Agricultural and Agricultural Cooperatives MDES Ministry of Digital Economy and Society MOI Ministry of Interior MOL Ministry of Labor MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MOPH Ministry of Public Health MSDHS Ministry of Social Development and Human Security NAP National Climate Adaptation Plan NDPMP National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan NESDC National Economic and Social Development Council PAO Provincial Administration Organization PDPA Personal Data Protection Act SAO Subdistrict Administrative Organization SVI Social Vulnerability Index UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The World Bank, in partnership with Thailand’s Ministry of Social Development and Human Security (MSDHS), prepared this synthesis report to assess the social dimensions of climate change affecting vulnerable populations served by the Ministry. Developed in collaboration with Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Engineering and College of Population Studies, the report provides technical, evidence-based analysis, and actionable recommendations to support MSDHS’s efforts to strengthen adaptive capacity and resilience among vulnerable groups and communities facing climate-related challenges. It consolidates analyses, findings, and guidance from three background studies: (1) Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand, which documents the development of an MSDHS database of vulnerable populations, assesses existing shelter coverage and capacity, and estimates flood-disaster costs; (2) Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand, which examines the relationship between local governance and climate resilience in high-risk communities; and (3) Gender Dimensions of Climate Change, which explores how climate impacts may disproportionately affect women and other vulnerable groups. Following decades of impressive growth and poverty reduction, Thailand’s ambition to become a high-income economy is challenged due in part to its vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.1 Thailand ranks among the countries most vulnerable to climate change.2 Its extensive coastline, an agricultural economy highly exposed to climate events, and urban development in low-lying floodplains render it highly susceptible to climate hazards. These challenges are further compounded by economic 1 Thailand Country Climate and Development Report, 2025. 2 Thailand’s Climate Risk Index ranking improved from 9th in 2021 to 30th in 2022. www.dcce.go.th pressures, social disparities, and institutional limitations that hamper effective risk management and climate adaptation. The economic implications of climate change are profound, with potential costs ranging from 10 to 20 percent of GDP by mid-century.3 Climate change is already reshaping environmental and social landscapes across Thailand, exposing people and communities to compounding risks that threaten their stability and well-being. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with long-term environmental shifts, are placing unprecedented pressure on livelihoods, infrastructure, and local economies. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and intensifying floods and droughts are accelerating socio-economic disparities, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations and those who rely on natural resources for their survival.4 Without targeted and effective responses as well as proactive adaptation measures that mitigate risks and enhance long-term resilience, the most vulnerable populations and affected communities risk being left behind in Thailand’s broader development and climate response agenda. Amid these growing challenges, climate adaptation planning and implementation in Thailand remain in their early stages, with significant gaps in prevention, preparedness, and response mechanisms. Thailand’s policy framework to address climate risks is robust, but its capacity to effectively implement strategies that respond to these risks varies across different levels of governance. The burden of response often falls heavily on local governments and communities who lack the institutional and financial capacity to prepare for and recover from repeated shocks. The Ministry of Social Development and Human Security has a critical mandate to support vulnerable populations5 before, during, and after disasters. The evidence points to three interlinked areas where action is most urgent: (i) identifying who is at risk and where they reside; (ii) estimating the potential scale and nature of economic losses borne by these households; and (iii) addressing gaps in community resilience. Attention to the gender dimensions of climate change impacts informs proposed recommendations. Evidence from overlaying climate hazard maps with MSDHS beneficiary data, assessing shelter coverage, estimating the costs of the 2023 flood, and analyzing resilience pathways with a gender lens underpins these findings. Findings This report’s findings focus on three key areas: 1. At-risk populations and temporary shelters To fulfill its mandate, the MSDHS needs accurate and up-to-date data on climate risks and vulnerable demographics. As of May 2025, approximately 9.4 million vulnerable people receive MSDHS support, of which 8.0 million live in high-risk areas - susceptible to floods, droughts, extreme heat, and coastal erosion (Figure A). 3 Thailand - Public Revenue and Spending Assessment: Promoting an Inclusive and Sustainable Future. 4 Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning. (2018). Thailand’s Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. https://unfccc.int/ documents/198663 5 Vulnerable populations are defined here as those who receive social welfare support from the MSDHS. These households have an annual income below THB 100,000 and require assistance due to the circumstances of dependents (e.g., young children, the elderly, persons with disabilities and those bedridden). viii Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Executive Summary FIGURE A: VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SUPPORTED BY MSDHS (DATA AS OF MAY 2025) Number of Vulnerable People (heads) 9,426,459 Region 3 | North East 2,686,433 4 | North 2,383,426 1 | Central 1,264,995 5 | South 1,002,454 Null 935,408 2 | East 563,399 6 | South Border 389,547 1 | Bangkok 200,797 Province 50 Chiang Mai 457,027 57 Chiang Rai 305,337 30 Nakchon Ratc.. 286,712 63 Tak 263,219 34 Ubon Ratcha.. 230,053 31 Buri Ram 210,172 80 Nakhon Si Th.. 207,477 71 Kanchanaburi 201,817 10 Bangkok 200,797 40 Khon Kaen 200,116 33 Si Sa Ket 192,989 32 Surin 175,743 41 Udon Thani 171,476 90 Songkhla 171,391 45 Roi Et 159,320 36 Chaiyaphum 155,757 84 Surat Thani 153,435 96 Narathiwat 146,296 55 Nan 140,696 91 Pattani 140,117 By overlaying climate risk maps with MSDHS data on vulnerable populations, the report identifies significant concentrations of at-risk individuals in areas facing high and very high exposure to various climate- related disasters. For example: • Some 600,000 vulnerable people reside in high-risk flood zones across 37 provinces, with the highest numbers found in major river basins in the central and northeastern regions, particularly in Si Sa Ket and Nakhon Ratchasima provinces. • In drought-prone areas, nearly 500,000 vulnerable individuals are affected across 21 provinces, with the majority located in Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast and Chiang Mai in the North. • Rising temperatures pose a threat to 6.89 million vulnerable people across 55 high-risk provinces; Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai in the North, along with Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast, exhibit the highest numbers of these individuals. • Finally, coastal erosion impacts just under 115,000 people in 19 provinces, with Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, and Narathiwat in the southern region having the largest affected populations. These figures do not include other registered populations who reside in high-risk areas and are also significantly affected by climate risks and disasters. This omission underscores the necessity for further socio-economic analysis of those not currently supported by MSDHS, particularly regarding employment, income, and access to services, to ensure that all impacted populations receive adequate government assistance. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand ix Executive Summary Temporary shelters intended to support disaster-impacted populations are not currently located in the areas most at risk of flooding, and their capacity and resources are insufficient to meet the needs of vulnerable groups. The MSDHS is responsible for managing temporary shelters during crises and disasters. Overlaying climate risk maps with existing temporary shelters identified by the Ministry of Interior’s (MOI) Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and MSDHS reveal that many areas, particularly those at high risk of flooding, lack sufficient temporary shelters to support populations affected by floods. People particularly vulnerable to floods and other extreme weather events include those who require special care and equipment, such as persons with disabilities, the elderly, young children, and pregnant women. The top 10 provinces,6 including 940 sub-districts in high-flood-risk areas, in need of shelters, have a combined population of approximately 1 million vulnerable people. 2. Economic Losses Estimating the economic impact of Thailand’s 2023 floods illustrates the significant financial cost borne by vulnerable populations. Historical floods have caused extensive damage and loss of life in Thailand. The total economic costs of the 2023 floods alone are estimated to have reached at least USD 711 million, primarily due to lost incomes and housing damage, highlighting the significant financial burden on vulnerable populations. While acknowledging limitations due to data availability and research timing, this example underscores the critical need for increased investment in social welfare support, climate adaptation, and for building resilience to mitigate these economic pressures. Strengthening MSDHS’s data architecture and analytics would improve cost estimation and support proactive budgeting for disaster response and recovery in future events. 3. Resilience Climate change and climate risk management policies, programs, and institutional mechanisms have significant impacts on local communities and vulnerable groups - supporting or constraining local resilience building efforts. Although Thailand’s policy frameworks are relatively robust, persistent implementation gaps compromise the effectiveness of government efforts - straining the capacities of communities and local government. Understanding community resilience to climate and disaster risks thus is critical to informing efforts to strengthen community adaptive capacity. Qualitative, community-based research in four different geographic and climatic contexts7 assesses community resilience structured around three pathways - economic resources, institutional capacity, and social cohesion - and three categories - prevention, coping measures, and transformation (Figure B). 6 These 10 provinces are: Nakornrachasrima, Sisaket, Buriram, Roi-et, Chiangmai, Nakornsrithammarat, Surin, Narathiwat, Supanburi and Nakorn Pathom.   7 Ban Bang Song is a flood-prone community in Sukhothai Province. Ban Santisuk in Nakhunkrai faces recurrent drought and heat stress. Ban Pha Tai in Chiang Mai is an upland indigenous community vulnerable to flash floods and legal exclusion. Balasoh in Songkhla Municipality experiences intensifying coastal erosion and flooding. x Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Executive Summary FIGURE B: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RESILIENCE PREVENTION COPING MEASURES Economic Institutional Resources Capacity RESILIENCE Social Cohesion TRANSFORMATION Source: Adapted from Barron, Patrick John; Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; El-Horr, Jana; Wilson, Juliette E. A Framework for Understanding and Measuring Resilience: Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Community capacity to prevent, cope with, and transform in response to climate shocks is constrained by insecure livelihoods, limited local resources, weakening social cohesion, and gender inequalities that heighten risks for women and vulnerable groups. Economic Resources. Households remain deeply exposed to climate risks due to their reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods. Communities depend primarily on farming, fishing, and informal labor, yet most households lack savings, access to insurance, or eligibility for formal credit systems. Land tenure insecurity and exclusion from government support deepen these vulnerabilities, particularly in marginalized areas. Institutional Capacity. Local institutions are essential to disaster response, but their capacities are limited by structural and financial constraints. Local governments play a crucial frontline role in addressing local challenges. However, they often navigate complex situations with certain operational limitations. Improved local–national coordination, investment in early warning and preparedness, and stronger data use are prerequisites for moving from reactive to preventive risk management and integrating social protection measures into comprehensive climate risk management strategies. Social Cohesion. Social cohesion plays a vital role in buffering communities from shocks, but it is weakening under growing stress. Informal mutual aid and kinship networks continue to function in communities, yet they are increasingly undermined by repeated climate events, economic pressures, and demographic shifts such as youth out-migration and aging populations. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand xi Executive Summary Although many communities display remarkable coping abilities, they are not yet equipped to transform in the face of escalating risks. Without improved access to resources, stronger institutions, and inclusive planning processes, resilience will remain uneven and reactive—rather than preventative, forward-looking, and sustainable. Prevention. Prevention and preparedness are the least developed aspect of community resilience across all sites. Infrastructure such as drainage and barriers is often absent or poorly maintained, and early warning systems are inconsistently deployed. Community preparedness efforts are minimal, with few drills or local risk reduction plans. Coping. Although communities demonstrate notable agency in coping with challenges, their efforts, while widespread, are often reactive and unsustainable. In response to climate events, households commonly resort to immediate, informal strategies that while providing short-term relief do not address underlying vulnerabilities or build lasting resilience to future events. Transformation. Transformative adaptation remains rare and under-supported. Few communities benefit from systemic interventions such as planned relocation, land reform, or long-term livelihood transitions. Specific programs show potential, but they are isolated and not institutionalized as part of a national adaptation approach. Gender considerations. Climate change and its associated risks disproportionately impact women and vulnerable groups due to existing gender disparities in socio-economic status, resource access, and formal decision-making authority. National data and field surveys indicate that female-headed households, burdened by caregiving responsibilities and limited financial resources, are particularly vulnerable during disasters. Women engaged in rural and informal sectors, who often depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods, face heightened food insecurity, disrupted incomes, and mental health challenges. Restricted access to information, credit, land rights, and institutional support hinders their ability to cope effectively. Extreme heat poses specific health risks, especially for pregnant women, and can exacerbate women’s time poverty, while disasters may increase the risks of gender-based violence. Gender aspects should be integrated in both social assistance targeting and community resilience programming. Recommendations Strengthening the institutional role of MSDHS and empowering communities are both essential to Thailand’s efforts to address the social dimensions of climate risk and enhance the resilience of its vulnerable populations. Proposed responsible Action Area Recommendations agencies 1. Enhance data • Develop a comprehensive definition of vulnerability and MSDHS and 15 other systems on vulnerability index that includes all susceptible populations ministries and 14 climate change (beyond MSDHS-supported groups), allowing for adaptability agencies signed an impacts for to various types of risks or shocks. MOU on June 18, vulnerable • Link with Social Registry System Initiative for comprehensive 2025, to coordinate populations data and welfare support. and improve the • Enhance MSDHS data collection and Big Data system. database of vulnerable populations. • MSDHS to lead the implementation of the MOU signed on June 18,2025 to improve country data system on vulnerable populations, compliance with data protection laws, and enhance data accessibility at the local level. • Establish an integrated risk and vulnerability mapping system. xii Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Executive Summary Proposed responsible Action Area Recommendations agencies 2. Strengthen • Invest in comprehensive capacity building for Ministry staff at MSDHS MSDHS capacity all levels. 3. Strengthen • Revise eligibility thresholds to reflect regional variations in MSDHS, National support to cost of living. Economic and Social address climate • Implement preventative and preparedness support programs Development Council impacts on for economically vulnerable households. (NESDC), Department vulnerable of Climate Change populations and Environment (DCCE), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), Ministry of Interior (MOI), Private sector 4. Improve future • Include currently unavailable short-term expenses (business MSDHS, DDPM, MOPH, cost assessments disruptions, infrastructure damage) and long-term indirect Ministry of Labor (MOL) effects (healthcare costs, displacement expenses) in cost assessments. • Use replacement cost estimates for damaged assets, reflecting actual value rather than government spending. • Expand socio-economic profiling to include ethnicity, disability, and other vulnerability factors. • Differentiate flood types (riverine, flash, coastal) and other environmental risks (droughts, extreme temperatures) in cost assessments. 5. Clarify institutional • Strengthen coordination across national, provincial, and local MSDHS, MOI, Ministry roles and institutions through institutionalized platforms, joint planning, of Natural Resource responsibilities and shared data systems. and Environment • Equip Sub-district administrative offices and municipalities (MONRE) with technical and financial capacity. • Clearly differentiate roles among levels of government. 6. Deepen • Formalize inclusive climate resilience planning processes MSDHS, DDPM, MOI, community that engage vulnerable groups and reflect community- DCCE participation in specific risk assessments climate resilience • Promote two-way communication between local authorities planning and residents • Equip community leaders with the knowledge and tools to lead local preparedness and response • Institutionalize annual reviews and participatory updates of disaster plans and population data 7. Strengthen • Improve the accuracy and timeliness of population and risk MSDHS, DDPM,DCCE implementation data, particularly for vulnerable groups. conditions • Expand structured, role-specific training for local authorities. • Ensure adequate, flexible budgets to support prevention, preparedness, recovery, and community-led climate adaptation initiatives Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand xiii Executive Summary Proposed responsible Action Area Recommendations agencies 8. Advance • Prioritize public awareness and education, leadership MSDHS, DDPM, DCCE, adaptation to training, and support for vulnerable households. slow-onset • Facilitate inclusive local adaptation planning backed by climate impacts technical support and funding. • Align national policy to promote ecosystem-based solutions, sustainable infrastructure, and long-term resilience. 9. Reinforce the role • Strengthen MSDHS’s leadership in social protection, MSDHS, MoNRE, MOI of MSDHS vulnerability mapping, and long-term recovery. • Establish joint operating procedures with DDPM and MoNRE. • Ensure MSDHS services are integrated into local disaster systems through inter-agency planning and coordination. Strengthen 10. • Integrate gender perspectives into climate strategies with Department of governance and gender impact assessments to create inclusive, sustainable Women’s Affairs and policy frameworks solutions. Family Developmnet for gender- • Institutionalize gender-disaggregated data systems to guide (DWFD) , MSDHS, responsive inclusive adaptation measures and enhance community works with all Chief climate action resilience Gender Executive • Enhance women’s leadership in climate governance to Officers and Gender ensure diverse voices shape policy decisions Focal Points in all relevant agencies especially in DDPM and DCCE, academic institutions, MSDHS networks, private sector, and civil society organizations. 11. Enhance gender- • Develop and implement targeted gender and climate DWFD-MSDHS, inclusive climate awareness programs to empower women and marginalized agencies working action at the local communities for active participation in climate-related on climate finance, level planning and decision-making. Ministry of Digital • Collaborate with relevant agencies to ensure equitable Economy and Society access to climate finance, jobs, and digital platforms for (MDES), Ministry women and marginalized groups for sustainable livelihoods of Agricultural and inclusive growth. and Agricultural Cooperatives (MAAC), MOL, DPPM, DCCE, and civil society organizations. Build gender- 12. • Integrate gender-specific needs into climate-resilient DWFD-MSDHS, Miistry responsive and health and education systems, ensuring access to material of Education (MOE), climate-resilient and reproductive healthcare during climate disruptions, Ministry of Public essential services and creating eduction programs that address gender Health (MoPH), DDPM, vulnerabilities. DCCE. academic • Design climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly emergency institutions, MSDHS shelters, with gender-specific safety features to ensure they networks. are safe and accessible for women, girls, and gender-diverse individuals. xiv Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Chapter 1. Introduction Following decades of impressive growth and poverty reduction, Thailand’s ambition to become a high- income economy faces challenges, including the country’s vulnerability to the physical impacts of climate change. Thailand, which ranked as the country eighth-most impacted by extreme weather events in the last two decades, is already experiencing the effects of climate change and its exposure to natural disasters, rising temperatures, and changing rain patterns will increase further.8 Climate change impacts human well-being, social structures, and inequality through multiple channels, including livelihoods, health, food security, migration, and social cohesion. The Thai government has disbursed an average of THB 4.7 billion per year from the National Contingency fund with a significant share of it being allocated to flood- related disasters; very little has been allocated to slow onset disasters like drought. Estimates suggest that this level of assistance is insufficient, as demonstrated by the 2023 floods where the support provided covered only about 20 percent of the estimated losses to lives and livelihoods.9 Understanding the social dimensions of climate change on Thailand’s poor and vulnerable populations and integrating these into climate policies is essential for inclusive and equitable development. Extreme weather events are deeply intertwined with global patterns of inequality. Climate change impacts are not evenly distributed. The most vulnerable people and communities face greater exposure to climate hazards and possess limited capacity to adapt, and thus disproportionately bear the cost of these impacts. As the frequency and severity of weather events increase, millions of vulnerable people face a loss of livelihoods, health effects, food insecurity, water shortages, migration and forced displacement, loss 8 Thailand Country Climate and Development Report, 2025. 9 Ibid Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 1 Introduction of home, shelter and community ties, and other related challenges. The root causes of vulnerability lie in a combination of their geographic location; their financial, socio-economic, cultural, and social status; and their access to resources, services and decision-making authority. Systemic inequalities, including gender disparities in time use, responsibility for care-giving, and limited access to assets and credit, contribute to amplify women’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters. Not only are vulnerable people disproportionately affected by climate change impacts, but they are also at risk of being disproportionately affected by adaptation measures. Climate policies can significantly influence poverty and social inclusion, necessitating careful design and citizen-centered policies to avoid worsening existing inequalities. Building the resilience of these populations and their communities effectively requires decentralized decision-making and resource allocation that develops responses tailored to the needs of local communities. Empowerment and citizen engagement are crucial for inclusive decision- making, ensuring that diverse voices are heard and considered. The World Bank Group collaborates with partners around the world to assess the social impacts of climate change and support governments, vulnerable populations, and their communities to address these challenges. Since 2010, World Bank reports on Social Dimensions of Climate Change have highlighted how climate change worsens social inequalities and urged the integration of social considerations into climate strategies. This approach involves addressing specific needs of different groups, promoting inclusive decision-making, and ensuring equitable access to resources. Operationally, World Bank-supported projects focused on locally led climate action provided USD 4 billion to 20 developing countries in 2024.10 These initiatives enhance climate resilience and support vulnerable communities, directly benefiting millions of people worldwide by improving their livelihoods and adaptive capacities amid climate change’s impacts. The World Bank is working closely with Thailand’s Ministry of Social Development and Human Security (MSDHS) to address the social dimensions of climate change focusing on vulnerable populations and households supported by the Ministry. MSDHS has formed a dedicated working group with the World Bank in collaboration with Chulalongkorn University with a mandate to: (i) enhance data on climate risks and MSDHS vulnerable populations; (ii) identify areas that require infrastructure development and temporary shelters; (iii) estimate the costs of floods affecting vulnerable populations; (iv) assess the impacts of disasters on vulnerable populations, including gender considerations, and communities; (v) enhance understanding of local governance with regard to climate resilience; and (vi) provide recommendations. Prepared in partnership with Chulalongkorn University’s Civil Engineering Faculty and the College of Population Studies, this report entitled Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand seeks to provide technical, evidence-based input to the joint working group and actionable recommendations to strengthen the adaptive capacities and build the resilience of vulnerable groups and communities against climate shocks. The report synthesizes the analyses, findings, and recommendations from three contributing background reports: Volume 1: Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand aims to support MSDHS in its responsibility to develop and maintain a database of vulnerable populations and manage emergency shelters by: (i) providing an overview of climate risks and the geographic distribution of vulnerable groups supported by MSDHS to pinpoint high-risk areas and estimate the potential numbers of vulnerable people requiring support in climate crises or natural disasters; (ii) identifying areas underserved by temporary 10 World Bank Results Briefs: Scaling Up Locally Led Climate Action to Enable Community Resilience and Equitable Climate Transitions, November 19, 2024. 2 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Introduction shelters; (iii) assessing the estimated economic impacts of floods on vulnerable groups; and (iv) providing recommendations to strengthen the data system and capacity of MSDHS to support vulnerable populations and their communities. Volume 2: Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand focuses on supporting MSDHS in its responsibility to improve the welfare and livelihoods of vulnerable populations and communities by deepening the understanding of the connection between climate resilience and local governance in high-risk communities. It explores the structural challenges that impede adaptation, the strategies communities use to manage environmental stress, and the impact of policy frameworks in supporting or limiting resilience-building efforts. Volume 3: Gender Dimensions of Climate Change examines how climate impacts disproportionately affect women and other vulnerable groups. It investigates the gender-inclusive strategies in Thailand’s climate action frameworks and their effectiveness in addressing inequalities. It proposes solutions to incorporate gender-sensitive approaches in climate adaptation and mitigation and disaster management efforts. The synthesis report is structured as follows: Chapter 1 introduces the rationale, context, and purpose of the report. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the country’s climate policy and institutional framework at both the national and local levels. Chapter 3 describes Thailand’s main climate risks and the channels through which vulnerable people are affected. Chapter 4 overlays maps of projected climate hazards on the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations, assesses the coverage and adequacy of the existing temporary shelter system, and estimates that economic costs of climate-related flooding in Thailand in 2023. Chapter 5 explores how communities experience climate impacts, the ways in which they cope and adapt, and assesses their resilience in the existing enabling environment, paying particular attention to vulnerable populations to underpin local level solutions that enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities. Chapter 6 concludes with policy and operational recommendations to both (i) improve MSDHS’s data on vulnerable populations and strengthen its capacity to plan, target, coordinate, and provide support to these vulnerable populations and (ii) enhance the adaptive capacities of local communities, promote equitable resource distribution, and safeguard the livelihoods of those more affected by climate change. Gender considerations are integrated throughout the report. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 3 Chapter 2. Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation The Thai government is committed to reducing its contribution to climate change and enhancing resilience to climate hazards and disaster shocks. At the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2022, Thailand pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 40 percent (below a business-as-usual baseline level) by 2030. This was proposed as an intermediate step towards meetings the country’s overall objectives of carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero greenhouse emissions by 2065.11 2.1 National climate and disaster policies, plans, and institutions Thailand has developed comprehensive climate policy frameworks that outline long-term strategies for climate resilience across sectors and levels of governance. The 2015-2050 Climate Change Master Plan, prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), provides a long-term national framework for climate change focused on adaption, mitigation, and capacity-building. A National Climate Adaptation Plan 2023-2037 (NAP), aligned with relevant national policies, addresses the challenges of a changing climate by improving resilience, reducing vulnerabilities, and enhancing adaptive capacity.12 It presents a monitoring and evaluation framework with short, intermediate, and long-term goals (Figure 1). 11 Thailand Country Climate and Development Report, 2025. 12 Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (2024). https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/NAP_ THAILAND_2024.pdf Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 5 Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation FIGURE 1: NATIONAL CLIMATE ADAPTATION GOALS (YEAR 2023-2037) SHORT-TERM GOALS INTERMEDIATE GOALS LONG-TERM GOALS 2023-2027 2023-2027 2023-2027 ▪ Raise public ▪ Strengthen policy ▪ Ensure climate awareness on instruments and resilience is integrated climate adaptation integrate adaptation into national into planning development plan ▪ Develop tools and framework for ▪ Enhance capacity to ▪ Maintain ongoing climate adaptation implement climate awareness adaptation measures ▪ Establish data and ▪ Regularly monitor knowledge to ▪ Improve data progress and update support systems to evaluate relevant policies and decision-making policy plans Source: Adapted from Thailand’s National Adaptation Plan, 2023 (unfcc.int) Throughout all three stages of the NAP a climate lens is to be deliberately applied to policies to ensure that climate risks and adaptation considerations are systematically integrated into decision-making processes, planning, and programs across all sectors. This approach not only strengthens the relevance and effectiveness of policies but also fosters coherence and synergy among ministries and agencies, enabling Thailand to mainstream climate resilience into its development trajectory sustainably and comprehensively. The NAP focuses on six priority sectors: water resources management, agriculture and food security, tourism, public health, natural resources management, and human settlements. It designates focal points for each of these sectors to help ensure effective implementation. The Climate Change Master Plan and the NAP do not systematically incorporate gender perspectives. Thailand has increasingly prioritized disaster risk management in response to the growing frequency and intensity of natural hazards. The National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act, enacted in 2007, established a systematic approach to disaster risk management at both national and local levels. The Act outlines six key objectives: (i) prevent and mitigate disaster impacts; (ii) strengthen disaster preparedness; (iii) plan and allocate resources, personnel, and equipment; (iv) define roles and coordinate efforts across agencies; (v) support post-disaster recovery and assistance; and (vi) promote public participation and develop early warning technologies. The National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan, structured as five-year operational frameworks, provides updated strategies for disaster risk reduction and emergency response. The NAP and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan are insufficiently integrated. The NAP focuses on addressing root causes by raising awareness and promoting behavioral changes for climate adaptation. The disaster management plan primarily addresses the consequences of environmental changes through disaster response and mitigation. In practice, there has been  little coordination between these plans, particularly at the  community level. Translating these national policy frameworks into action at the local level is hindered by limited coordination across government tiers, insufficient budget devolution, unclear mandates for local actors, and a lack of contextualized guidance for implementation. 6 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation 2.2 Local-level climate and disaster risk management Local governments in Thailand play a significant role in climate adaptation and resilience-building within the country’s decentralized governance framework. The decentralization process, established through the 1997 Constitution and the 1999 Decentralization Act, transferred responsibilities from the central government to subnational administrative units, including Provincial Administration Organizations (PAOs), Municipalities, and Sub-district Administration Organizations (SAOs). Mandates across government structures, however, overlap which hampers policy execution and coordination efforts. The disaster risk management framework mandates the development of disaster action plans at all administrative levels, from national to local governments. At the provincial level, local authorities are responsible for drafting provincial disaster management plans that include risk assessments preparedness measures and post-disaster response and recovery initiatives. Local administrative organizations focus on community-specific disaster response strategies, such as volunteer training, equipment preparedness, and local level emergency drills emergency response drills, and post-disaster response and recovery initiative. The government intends to implement the NAP at the provincial and local levels by consolidating national, local, and sectoral expertise to develop strategies for managing the effects of climate change. The MNRE is the main focal point for coordinating implementation of the NAP. MSDHS, which has recently been appointed to the National Committee on Climate Change, plays a vital role in ensuring that the needs of vulnerable populations are integrated into adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts. MSDHS’s role complements the mandates of other core agencies such as the Ministry of the Interior’s (MOI) Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), which leads on emergency response and local disaster planning; and the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE), which coordinates broader climate policy. To strengthen the adaptive capacity of communities and the population at large, it is essential to expand the current institutional framework by including additional key actors. These include the Office of National Economic and Social Development Council, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, as well as relevant non-profit organizations (Figure 2). Their involvement will enhance cross sectoral coordination and support more integrated, inclusive approaches to climate resilience and adaptation. FIGURE 2: AN EXPANDED INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES/AGENCIES Ministry of Natural Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Tourism Ministry of Ministry of Interior Resources and and Cooperatives and Sports Public Health (MOI) Environment (MNRE) (MOAC) (MOTS) (MOPH) Ministry of Social O ce of National Ministry of Labor Ministry of Development and Economic and Social Thai Red Cross (MOL) Education (MOE) Human Security Development Council Society (MSDHS) (NESDC) PROVINCIAL AUTHORITIES LOCAL AUTHORITIES Source: Adapted from Thailand’s National Adaptation Plan, 2023, and expanded to include recommendations from Vol.2 background report Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 7 Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation Although Thailand’s disaster management framework provides clear mandates, implementation of national climate policies at the local level varies. How local governments and communities manage climate change and disaster risks locally is assessed through community-based qualitative analysis in Chapter 5 below. 2.3 Ministry of Social Development and Human Security (MSDHS) The Ministry of Social Development and Human Security plays a crucial role in supporting and protecting vulnerable populations whose adaptive capacity during times of crisis and disaster is limited. The 2015 National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan (NDPMP) outlines the Ministry’s responsibilities before, during, and after crises.13 • In the pre-disaster phase, one of its key responsibilities is the development and maintenance of a database of the vulnerable populations, including children, disabled persons, the elderly, and the underprivileged to ensure timely delivery of assistance in the event of a disaster. In addition, the MSDHS is also to focus on prevention and preparedness by promoting community participation and local capacity for disaster planning and supporting community organizations, strengthening networks of volunteers to monitor and report incidents. • In the event of a disaster, the Ministry’s Provincial Social Development and Human Security Officers are tasked with monitoring developments, coordinating with relevant agencies, and providing real-time information on affected areas. The provincial staff manage temporary shelters for identified vulnerable populations and support social development and welfare activities within these shelters. • Post-disaster, the Ministry focuses on rehabilitation and development to help ensure disaster victims can return to normalcy and strengthen community resilience. Efforts include organizing teams of social workers and psychologists to provide counseling and mental health support; delivering assistance, including vocational training and housing repairs; and rebuilding community livelihoods. In 2023, the MSDHS introduced a new Climate Change Crisis and Disaster Management Policy aimed at effectively assisting vulnerable populations affected by climate change in line with the Ministry’s responsibilities under the NDPMP. This policy seeks to reform the Ministry’s data on the vulnerable populations it supports, assess the adequacy of existing shelters, and enhance the capacity of Ministry staff. The MSDHS further aims to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable populations and their communities in accordance with the NAP, particularly in the areas of human settlements and human security, and in close collaboration with relevant agencies and civil society organizations. To implement the new policy, the Ministry established the Disaster Care Center for the Vulnerable (DCCV) in October 2024. The center functions as the primary mechanism to provide assistance, care, relief, and rehabilitation for vulnerable groups and families affected by disasters. It also serves as a central hub for communication, supervision, monitoring and evaluation of assistance efforts. The MSDHS is also responsible for strengthening networks in social development and welfare to serve as supplementary mechanisms for disaster prevention efforts at the grassroots level. 13 See background report Volume 1 (Annex 1) for a detailed description of the MSDHS’s roles and responsibilities in crises and disasters. 8 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Policies and Institutional Landscape for Climate, Disaster Management, and Adaptation Strong coordination between MSDHS and local governments is critical for effective disaster response. Subdistrict Administrative Organizations (SAOs), under MOI, play a frontline role in identifying at-risk groups and facilitating aid distribution. The effectiveness of this coordination—particularly between Provincial Social Development and Human Security Offices and local authorities—greatly influences the timeliness and adequacy of support provided to affected households. Community engagement is essential for designing disaster response that is both contextually appropriate and inclusive. Collaborating with residents helps ensure that preparedness and relief strategies are grounded in the lived realities of the communities that aim to serve. While feedback mechanisms and post-disaster consultation are important for continuous improvement, case studies (described below) indicate that the use of local knowledge and indigenous practices in disaster planning remains limited. The Community Organizations Development Institute (CODI) holds a lead role in facilitating community-based disaster planning, but further capacity strengthening is needed—especially on climate risk awareness and adaptive strategies. This requires closer collaboration with other line ministries, including those responsible for environment, agriculture, and science and technology. Improving disaster management also depends on access to timely and reliable data on vulnerable groups. MSDHS is currently working to integrate, update, and enhance its data systems focused on vulnerable populations and communities at risk of disaster. Ongoing policy and financial support from the Ministry and the government are essential for developing an integrated and sustainable data system. Furthermore, collaboration with local governments is vital in promoting an understanding of the significance of data and information, which they collect and utilize for the benefit of their communities. MSDHS’s capacity to support long-term recovery remains limited relative to its responsibilities. While the ministry plays an active role in emergency relief—such as housing repairs and psychosocial support— longer-term livelihood recovery and resilience building require more structured operational systems and additional financial resources. Expanding partnerships with other ministries, civil society, and non- governmental organizations will be necessary to ensure comprehensive and sustained recovery, particularly for vulnerable populations. As Thailand advances its national climate adaptation agenda, the role of MSDHS in linking social development with climate resilience becomes increasingly important. Supporting locally driven adaptation strategies and expanding access to knowledge and financial tools can enable communities to better prepare for environmental change. Community-based initiatives—particularly those that prioritize the needs of vulnerable groups—offer a pathway to inclusive and sustainable climate action. Ensuring that the voices and priorities of communities are reflected in national planning will help deliver more equitable outcomes and strengthen resilience at both household and community levels. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 9 Chapter 3. Thailand’s Climate Risks Thailand is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. According to the Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch for 2025, Thailand ranks 30th of out 174 countries. The country’s geographical features, including long coastlines, fragile agricultural systems, and extensive networks of rivers and canals, heighten its susceptibility to extreme weather events, particularly to floods, droughts, extreme heat, and coastal erosion. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of these events. Together, these challenges could cost the country an estimated 10 to 20 percent of GDP by 2050 if adequate adaptation measures are not adopted. The impacts of climate change in Thailand disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including the poor, elderly, women, children, and ethnic groups. These groups often lack the resources and infrastructure needed to effectively cope with climate-related disasters, making them particularly susceptible to their adverse effects. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires specific attention to how each type of climate event impacts different vulnerable populations. 3.1 Floods Floods are frequent events with devastating impacts. Since 1990, seven major floods have together affected 30 percent of Thailand’s landmass. Each flood has impacted at least one million people. The 2011 floods were particularly severe, causing 680 deaths and affecting nearly 13 million people, with economic losses amounting to USD 46.5 billion, or 12.6 percent of GDP. More recently, severe floods in October 2022 necessitated USD 663 million in government relief funds (0.13 percent of GDP).14 14 Thai flood 2011: rapid assessment for resilient recovery and reconstruction planning: Overview (Vol.1) Thailand Economic Monitor - Building a Resilient Future: Coping with Droughts and Floods (Summary) Thailand - Public Revenue and Spending Assessment: Promoting an Inclusive and Sustainable Future Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 11 Thailand’s Climate Risks Flooding disproportionately impacts those residing in low-lying areas or informal settlements. Small- scale farmers face reduced yields due to crop and farmland damage, negatively impacting their income, livelihoods, and food security. These disruptions contribute to seasonal male out-migration, compounding economic uncertainty and placing additional strain on families. Urban poor communities may be isolated from essential services and struggle to access clean water and sanitation facilities. Ethnic groups in northern Thailand are also at risk from flash floods and landslides. Language barriers and their lack of land rights or citizenship limit their access to timely access to early warnings and to government resources and aid during disasters, further entrenching their vulnerability. Small businesses located in flood-prone areas may be compelled to cease operations, resulting in loss of income and employment opportunities. Informal settlements, often situated in flood-prone zones, are typically the first to incur damage. Female-headed households are particularly vulnerable to flood-related climate risks due to limited financial access, caregiving burdens, and weaker social safety nets. Caregivers, predominately women, often delay evacuation to support children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities, placing themselves at increased physical and emotional risk. 3.2 Drought Thailand is highly susceptible to drought, particularly in its northeastern and central regions. Notable droughts occurred in 1979, 1994, 1999, and 2015, with the 2015-16 drought alone causing losses exceeding USD 1.7 billion, primarily due to decreased paddy rice production. In 2019, the government provided a one- time compensation of THB 25 billion (0.15% of GDP) to farmers for crop damage due to drought and flooding.15 Droughts are particularly devastating for those reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods, significantly impacting small-scale farmers, rural communities, and urban poor communities through insufficient water supply, reduced crop yields, and increased food insecurity. In Thailand, especially in the northeastern region which has high poverty rates, droughts exacerbate economic hardships by causing water shortages and reducing agricultural productivity, notably affecting crops like rice, rubber, and sugar. This reduction in agricultural output leads to lower wages and heightened unemployment, further straining the welfare of the poorest communities. Additionally, drought-induced male out-migration increases women’s workload, contributing to financial strain and heightened poverty risks. These challenges underscore the urgent need for effective climate adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse effects on the welfare of affected communities and enhance resilience against future climate-related adversities. 3.3 Extreme Heat Extreme heat events pose significant risks to public health, agriculture, and labor productivity. Thailand experiences some of the highest temperatures in Southeast Asia, and heatwaves are becoming more common, impacting various aspects of life and the economy. Vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, older caregivers, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly susceptible to heat-related illnesses. These populations face increased health risks due to their physiological sensitivity and social circumstances, which can lead to higher morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. 15 Thailand - Public Revenue and Spending Assessment: Promoting an Inclusive and Sustainable Future - Chapter 7: Responding to Climate Change. Thailand Economic Monitor - Building a Resilient Future: Coping with Droughts and Floods (Summary). World Bank Blog 2023 Enhancing water security measures is a priority for Thailand to build climate resilience 12 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Thailand’s Climate Risks Elevated temperatures can reduce outdoor labor productivity, especially in sectors like agriculture and construction, potentially leading to a 6 percent loss in total working hours annually by 2030.16 This reduction in productivity not only affects economic output but also exacerbates income inequality, as those reliant on manual labor are disproportionately impacted. Additionally, extreme heat can exacerbate drought conditions, reduce crop yields, and threaten food security, causing economic losses for farmers and higher food prices. This situation is particularly dire for smallholder farmers who lack the resources to adapt to changing climate conditions. Women’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, limited irrigation access, and unequal caregiving responsibilities heightens their vulnerability to prolonged dry spells and rising temperatures. As primary caregivers and agricultural workers, women are often at the forefront of managing household food security and income, making them more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Their increased exposure to heat-related stressors can lead to health complications and economic instability, further entrenching gender disparities. 3.4 Coastal Erosion Coastal erosion and sea level rise are pressing issues for Thailand’s coastal communities, especially those dependent on marine and tourism-based livelihoods. Development activities that disrupt natural processes exacerbate vulnerabilities. For example, the removal of mangrove forests for coastal development, including shrimp farming and urban expansion, has significantly contributed to coastal erosion in Samutprakarn province. In addition, excessive underground water use, and the weight of large-scale high-rise developments have caused the land to sink. This subsidence, combined with rising sea levels, increases the risk of permanent water incursion and exacerbates coastal erosion. Approximately 23 percent of Thailand’s coastline, or 600 km, experiences erosion rates of one to five meters annually, resulting in an estimated land loss valued at THB 6 billion (0.04% of GDP) each year.17 This erosion, coupled with rising sea levels, threatens human settlements and economic activities, especially in the lower Chao Phraya Delta and the eastern and southern coastal provinces. These changes threaten the homes and livelihoods of those who live in coastal communities. Various groups and sectors, including fishermen, coastal aquaculture farmers, the tourism industry, and local residents are affected. These groups experience challenges such as damaged boats, equipment, and infrastructure, hindering access to fishing grounds and reducing fish catches. Coastal erosion also harms farmland and diminishes water resources, complicating crop cultivation and economic stability, sometimes resulting in forced migration, declining incomes, and pressure to sell land. The tourism industry suffers from damaged beaches and attractions, impacting employment and revenue in the sector. Additionally, coastal erosion damages homes, infrastructure, and community assets, making it difficult for residents, particularly those already vulnerable due to poverty or other factors, to live and work in coastal areas. 16 World Bank Publications: i) GFDRR Annual Report 2024; ii) An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh; iii) EAP Extreme Heat Study; and iv) SHAPING A COOLER BANGKOK: Tackling Urban Heat for a More Livable City 17 World Bank Publications: I) Development in Partnership (July 2007); and ii) Thailand - Public Revenue and Spending Assessment: Promoting an Inclusive and Sustainable Future - Chapter 7: Responding to Climate Change. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 13 Chapter 4. Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand MSDHS is the key agency responsible for providing social assistance and welfare support to vulnerable populations including poor children, the elderly, people with disabilities, women, unhoused, and people living in highland areas. Having detailed climate risk maps and identified vulnerable populations is crucial for the Ministry to effectively target its resources, prioritize interventions, and develop proactive strategies to protect these groups from the impacts of climate change. 4.1 Mapping Climate Risks This report applies the framework from the 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)18 to assess climate risks and map vulnerability across different regions of Thailand. The framework conceptualizes risk as the interaction between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, reflecting the potential for adverse impacts on human and ecological systems. Hazards are associated with climatic impact drivers, which encompass extreme weather events and slow-onset changes driven by climate variability and change. Exposure refers to the presence and distribution of populations, assets, and ecosystems in hazard-prone areas. Vulnerability represents the susceptibility of these systems to harm, incorporating factors such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Disaster risk is not static but is shaped by responses, including adaptation and mitigation measures which influence risk outcomes. As climate risks are dynamic, the framework also incorporates climate change projections. Socioeconomic factors are also dynamic, but the lack of precise projections for future demographics, economic development, infrastructure expansion, and governance effectiveness prevents their inclusion.19 18 Ipcc.ch/Assessment-report/ar6/ 19 It is recommended that future research incorporate data regarding socio-economic future into the formula. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 15 Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly related to drought, flooding, and heatwaves, are projected to intensify in the coming years. The climate risk maps below illustrate the areas of the country most susceptible to and which face increasing risks from flooding, drought, heat, and coastal erosion.20 The importance of the affected regions to the country’s development underpins the imperative for policymakers to place a high priority on addressing climate change impacts, particularly in the Northeast region. 4.1.1 Projecting Climate Change for Drought The climate change map for drought illustrates the normalized index of future climate change impacts related to drought (Figure 3). The map indicates an increasing risk of drought in several regions of Thailand. The basins of the Mekong, Chi, and Mun rivers in the northeastern region are projected to experience higher drought risk. Nakhon Ratchasima province appears particularly vulnerable compared to other areas. In the northeastern region, a significant number of farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, which compared to irrigated zones is more susceptible to climate change. Farmers and agricultural products unable to adapt to future conditions will be adversely affected. Nakhon Ratchasima province also faces high risks from climate change-induced floods as illustrated below. FIGURE 3: PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR DROUGHT 1970-2005 2017-2035 2046-2065 Source: DCCE 20 The creation of these climate risk maps utilizes and analyses available data from Thai agencies including the Department of Climate Change and Environment (DCCE) for future climate change, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and the Department of Marine and Coastal Resource Management (DMCR) for hazards, the National Statistics Office (NSO) for exposure, and MSDHS for vulnerability. 16 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand 4.1.2 Projecting Climate Change for Flooding The climate change map for flooding, which presents the normalized index of future climate change concerning floods, indicates that Thailand faces an increasing risk of floods across numerous regions. Notably, the Greater Chao Phraya River Basin Group, encompassing the Ping River Basin, Wang River Basin, Yom River Basin, Nan River Basin, and Chao Phraya River Basin in the northern and central regions, is projected to experience a heightened flood risk. Nakhon Ratchasima province is particularly vulnerable compared to other provinces. These regions are crucial to Thailand’s economic and social development at both national and regional levels. It is thus imperative that high-level policymakers prioritize planning to mitigate the impacts of climate change and flooding. FIGURE 4: PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR FLOODING 1970-2005 2017-2035 2046-2065 Source: DCCE Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 17 Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand 4.1.3 Projecting Climate Change for Heat The climate change map for heat issues illustrates the normalized index of future climate change regarding heat. The assessment indicates that Thailand faces an increasing risk from heat, with several regions, particularly the northeastern region, showing a higher propensity towards future heat risks. This situation poses a significant threat to farmers and outdoor workers who are exposed to heat-related illnesses, such as heat stroke, which occurs when the body cannot regulate internal heat levels. Efforts to address the risk of increased heat should focus on protecting farmers and outdoor workers. FIGURE 5: PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR HEAT 1970-2005 2017-2035 2046-2065 Source: DCCE 4.2 MSDHS-Supported Vulnerable Populations and Households In the context of climate change and disaster management, vulnerability encompasses multiple dimensions. Vulnerable populations are those who are more exposed to climate hazards, have less capacity to adapt, and are often already disadvantaged by social, economic and environmental inequalities. For the purposes of this study, vulnerable populations are defined as individuals and households receiving social welfare support from MSDHS. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)21 utilized by the MSDHS 21 The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) is a tool used to assess the susceptibility of communities to various hazards, including natural disasters and climate change. It measures the social vulnerability of a location, considering factors like socioeconomic status, household composition, and housing characteristics. The SVI helps identify areas that may need more support in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters. 18 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand to identify these vulnerable groups incorporates various factors, including socioeconomic status, household characteristics, ethnic status, and housing conditions. According to the MSDHS, vulnerable households are those with an annual income at or below THB 100,000. This definition also encompasses households requiring assistance due to dependent situations, such as those with young children (aged 0-3 years), impoverished single mothers, vulnerable elderly individuals, persons with disabilities, and those with other health considerations, including bedridden individuals, those suffering from mental health issues, chronic illnesses, mobility impairments, and other disabilities. Additionally, households facing challenges related to housing or living conditions are included. While these indexes are not exhaustive and could benefit from further refinement, they effectively reflect the reduced capacity of these populations to adapt and highlight their disadvantage due to social, economic, and environmental inequality.22   As of March 2025, MSDHS provides support to about 9.4 million vulnerable people in rural and urban communities throughout the country’s five regions. This total includes 1.3 million elderly persons, 2.19 million individuals with disabilities, 1.25 million children aged 0 to 3, and 4.4 million individuals who receive other support from MSDHS, such as on housing improvement, assistance for the homeless and people in highland areas, treatment for HIV AIDS, and different types of capacity building support. The map below illustrates the spatial distribution of the vulnerable population. The Northeastern region has the highest number of vulnerable individuals (almost 2.7 million), followed by the Northern region (about 2.4 million). FIGURE 6: THE VULNERABLE PEOPLE IN THAILAND Number of Vulnerable People (heads) 9,426,459 Region 3 | North East 2,686,433 4 | North 2,383,426 1 | Central 1,264,995 5 | South 1,002,454 Null 935,408 2 | East 563,399 6 | South Border 389,547 1 | Bangkok 200,797 Province 50 Chiang Mai 457,027 57 Chiang Rai 305,337 30 Nakchon Ratc.. 286,712 63 Tak 263,219 34 Ubon Ratcha.. 230,053 31 Buri Ram 210,172 80 Nakhon Si Th.. 207,477 71 Kanchanaburi 201,817 10 Bangkok 200,797 40 Khon Kaen 200,116 33 Si Sa Ket 192,989 32 Surin 175,743 41 Udon Thani 171,476 90 Songkhla 171,391 45 Roi Et 159,320 36 Chaiyaphum 155,757 84 Surat Thani 153,435 96 Narathiwat 146,296 55 Nan 140,696 91 Pattani 140,117 22 Note: This household data considers a variety of factors that produce climate vulnerability but does not include all possible indicators. For example, it includes household income level, but not employment status of household members. Ethnic minorities and language are sometimes included as markers of vulnerability. Limitations notwithstanding, these are the most comprehensive micro-level datasets on vulnerability available in Thailand. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 19 Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand TABLE 1: OVERVIEW OF KEY VULNERABLE POPULATION OVERSEEN BY THE MSDHS Vulnerable Children Vulnerable Vulnerable People with Region (0-3 years) Elderly Disabilities TOTAL 1,250,665 1,633,653 2,190,980 Northeast 448,238 596,323 848,382 North 222,387 387,453 493,567 Central 184,660 234,755 325,123 South 171,649 167,918 215,125 East 91,401 105,803 136,670 Southern Border 92,984 33,676 64,450 Bangkok 27,988 48,723 93,867 Unallocated 11,358 59,002 13,796 Note: Data is also available across provinces although only regional data is reported here. Table 1 breaks down the key groups of vulnerable people by region. Significant regional disparities in the vulnerability of young children are likely due to poverty and limited access to essential services, exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the southern border provinces. The higher concentration of the vulnerable elderly in many Northeastern and Northern provinces may be attributed to economic disadvantages and a relatively high proportion of older adults. Vulnerable people with disabilities lack access to essential services and support systems. Out of the total vulnerable population of 9.4 million people, 4.3 million are females most of whom live in the northeastern region. About 95,000 of female vulnerable population are single mothers. In times of disaster, it is crucial for governments to pay close attention to gender aspects to ensure that assistance is tailored to the specific needs of women and girls. Women often face unique challenges due to economic disadvantage, social roles, limited access to education, and increased risk of gender-based violence. MSDHS also oversees highland populations across 20 provinces, mostly in the northern and central western regions of the country. These highland areas are home to a diverse array of ethnic groups, as well as lowland Thais who have relocated there, resulting in a rich multicultural society. While Thailand officially recognizes 62 ethnolinguistic groups, the MSDHS is specifically tasked with overseeing 10 ethnic groups that have been targeted for alternative livelihood development and support. Many highland communities were established before the designation of conservation areas in 1961, leading to land use conflicts with the government as they now live within these conservation zones. These ethnic populations often encounter significant challenges in accessing healthcare, education, and infrastructure due to geographical isolation and poverty. The lack of citizenship documentation among ethnic minorities further restricts their ability to access information, travel outside their communities, and receive essential services, particularly during disasters. 4.3 Vulnerable Populations in Climate Risk Areas Overlaying the climate risk maps with data on MSDHS-defined vulnerable people reveals the number of vulnerable people at risk from floods, droughts, extreme heat, and coastal erosion. This analysis helps to estimate the potential number of people who may require additional support from MSDHS and other agencies in the event of extreme climate events. It also highlights priority zones for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation measures. 20 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand 4.3.1 Mapping Vulnerability to Flooding Seven percent of Thailand’s population (4,870,859 registered residents) lives in high and very high flood-risk areas (defined as sub-districts with a normalized flood severity index above 0.5). Of this total, 603,268 (12.4 percent) are vulnerable as defined by MSDHS. Almost 24 percent of vulnerable people living in flood-prone areas reside in areas at very high risk for flooding. The highest number of vulnerable people in flood-prone areas reside in the Northeast, followed by the North. Those living in areas at high or very high risk of floods are found in low-lying major river basins prone to recurrent flooding, such as the Chao Phraya River. Other factors, including seasonal monsoon rains, poor urban planning, and inadequate drainage systems, exacerbate flooding risks (Figure 7). 4.3.2 Mapping Vulnerability to Drought Five percent of Thailand’s total population (3,192,485 registered residents) live in areas at high or very high risk of drought (defined as sub-districts with a normalized drought severity index above 0.5). Of this total, 495,308 (almost 16 percent) are vulnerable. Almost 17 percent of vulnerable people living in drought- prone areas live in areas at very high risk of droughts (Figure 8). FIGURE 7: VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIVING FIGURE 8: VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIVING IN HIGH AND VERY HIGH FLOOD-RISK IN HIGH AND VERY HIGH DROUGHT- AREAS RISK AREAS Source: Research Team 4.3.3 Mapping Vulnerability to Heat Over 78 percent of Thailand’s total population live in zones at high or very high heat-risk zones (defined by a normalized heat severity index above 0.5), 6,868,730 (13 percent) of whom are vulnerable. Almost 36 percent of vulnerable people living in heat-risk prone areas reside in very high risk areas (Figure 9). Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 21 Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand 4.3.4 Mapping Vulnerability to Coastal Erosion Thailand’s coasts in 19 coastal provinces are at risk of eroding due to climate impacts. Almost 2 percent of Thailand’s population lives in areas at risk of coastal erosion, 114,767 (10 percent of registered residents) of whom are vulnerable. About 6 percent of these people live in areas at very high risk of coastal erosion (Figure 10). FIGURE 9: VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIVING FIGURE 10: VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIVING IN HIGH AND VERY HIGH EXTREME IN HIGH AND VERY HIGH COASTAL HEAT-RISK AREAS EROSION-RISK AREAS Source: Research Team 4.4 Infrastructure Available for Use as Temporary Shelters by Vulnerable Populations As noted above, one of the key responsibilities of the MSDHS under the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan is preparing and managing temporary shelters as well as supporting social welfare activities within these temporary shelters. In this role, the MSDHS collaborates closely with MOI’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. In seeking to fulfill this responsibility, the MSDHS faces several challenges. These temporary shelters, such as schools and temples, typically provide basic necessities such as space, water, and electricity for disaster victims. Most lack specialized equipment or facilities suitable for the elderly, people with disabilities, pregnant women, and young children who require special care, such as ramps, accessible transportation, alternative communication formats, assistive devices like wheelchairs and hearing aids, reliable power for medical devices, and continuous illumination and clear signage for egress routes. Existing shelters that could potentially be used by the MSDHS include existing temporary disaster shelters under the MOI’s DDPM as well as those under the MSDHS’ direct supervision. The DDPM identifies 10,743 temporary flood shelters located throughout the country with a capacity to accommodate a 22 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand total of 3,994,182 individuals. The MSDHS administers facilities for different vulnerable groups (e.g., children, highland people, homeless, women in need for protection, older persons, and those with disabilities) that could be turned into temporary shelters during disasters. Located across all 77 provinces, these 197 centers and facilities can only accommodate a total of 6,637 people. Superimposing maps of areas at risk for flooding, the locations of vulnerable people, and DDPM designated flood shelters reveals significant gaps in coverage, highlighting the need for additional facilities in underserved areas. Figure 11 is an attempt to also identify areas in the top 10 provinces where temporary shelters are needed in flood risk areas that have populations totaling about 1 million people. These provinces include Nakornrachasrima, Sisaket, Buriram, Roi-et, Chiangmai, Nakornsrithammarat, Surin, Narathiwat, Supanburi and Nakorn Pathom. FIGURE 11: AREAS OF HIGH FLOOD RISK WITH REGISTERED POPULATION, VULNERABLE POPULATION AND TEMPORARY SHELTERS PROVIDED BY DDPM Flood Map Registered Population Map Vulnerable Map Flood Shelter Registered Population (heads) 8,311,885 Vulnerable People (head) 1,025,208 4.5 Economic Costs of Floods in Thailand and Insights on Vulnerable People Thailand faces significant economic challenges due to its susceptibility to floods and droughts, hazards exacerbated by climate change.23 Historic data demonstrates the profound impacts of climate change, as evidenced by the 2011 floods which caused economic losses equivalent to about 13 percent of the country’s GDP. Current estimates indicate that annual losses from flooding amount to about USD 2.6 million annually. Climate change projections predict an increase in both the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, with average daily temperatures potentially rising of 1.8 C by 2050, with profound economic consequences. A major 1-in-50 year flood in 2030 could potentially reduce GDP by over 10 percent. Given the magnitude of potential losses, MSDHS and relevant disaster management agencies must integrate the economic costs of climate impacts on vulnerable populations and households in their future strategies and actions. 23 https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/publication/towards-a-green-and-resilient-thailand Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 23 Mapping Climate Risks and Vulnerable Populations in Thailand 4.5.1 Estimated Cost of Flooding Estimating the economic costs of Thailand’s 2023 floods24 helps to assess the impact of flooding and highlights the burden borne by MSDHS’s vulnerable populations due to floods. The magnitude of the costs of recurring floods should inform more climate-resilient policy making and sustainable development planning and strengthens the case for bolstering crisis preparedness and social protection amid increasing climate risks. The cost estimate aggregates data on the impact of flooding through three key channels: lost income (e.g., from agricultural production and in labor earnings), increased welfare spending, and replacement cost of damaged dwellings. The analysis captures both individual losses directly borne by affected populations and social costs incurred by public entities which divert resources from other priorities. It excludes harder- to-track costs such as broader business disruptions, additional healthcare expenses from flood-related illnesses and injuries, and long-term displacement costs due to data limitations and thus yields a lower- bound estimate. The estimated costs of floods in Thailand in 2023 totals USD 711 million. Most of this estimate is attributed to lost income (USD 593 million); followed by housing damage costs covered by the government (USD 103 million), and welfare benefits mobilized for the flood (USD 15 million).25 4.5.2 Floods costs and population’s social vulnerabilities Two key reflections emerge regarding floods and population vulnerability. First, most flood-related costs—over 83 percent—stem from lost worker income and agricultural production (the latter accounting for more than half of all estimated costs), while government spending to mitigate these losses accounts for the remaining 17 percent. This means that public compensation spending covers just a fraction of the estimated damages (already only a share of the total true costs). In short, post-flood compensation is limited and cannot fully eliminate vulnerability to such disasters. The second point highlights the staggering potential costs if floods impacted all vulnerable households in Thailand — estimated at 4,334,229 households in 2023 by the DDPM. A rough calculation, based on the per-household flood cost, suggests a potential economic toll of USD 7.7 billion.26 In short, disasters disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations not only result in higher economic losses but also place greater strain on government budgets. Investing in flood prevention (and other types of disaster beyond floods), compensation, adaptation, and resilience is thus both fiscally prudent and more effective when prioritizing the most vulnerable—whose ability to prevent, cope and recover from floods is more limited. This economic impact underscores the importance for the government, especially MSDHS, to urgently strengthen its policies, plans and implementation to proactively protect vulnerable populations from floods. These efforts could include designing adapted social protection and welfare benefits for populations residing in the areas that are prone to floods and other disasters, as well as ensuring the integration of climate-proofing for facilities such as housing and other facilities for vulnerable populations under the auspices of MSDHS. 24 The economic cost of floods is estimated because the government does not usually declare other climate risks like coastal erosion, drought, and heat as disasters. Without such declarations, it is hard to trace their impacts on death, lost income, or welfare spending. 25 More details on the methodology and cost estimates are included in Volume 1 Background report. 26 That number results from multiplying the officially reported total number of vulnerable households, 4,334,229, over the average cost of an affected household (USD 711.4 Million / 399,087 affected households). 24 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Chapter 5. Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand Despite Thailand’s national commitment to climate resilience, the burden of responding to climate hazards falls heavily on local governments and communities. Understanding the degree and nature of community resilience is thus critical to designing policy and institutional strategies to strengthen the adaptive capacity of communities in the face of climate-related shocks. This chapter thus explores how community- level experiences with climate impacts align with national adaptation frameworks and how institutional responses support and constrain local resilience-building efforts. Data from the risk mapping exercise described above was used to select four sites based on exposure to climate risk, socioeconomic vulnerability, and geographic diversity. A total of 64 participants (30 males and 34 females) took part in eleven focus group discussions and twenty-one in-depth interviews. Participants included local officials, community leaders, low-income households, heads of households, caregivers of persons with disabilities, elderly persons, and youth. These discussions and interviews were designed with careful attention to gender and intergenerational dynamics. Data collection was complemented by a review of secondary sources such as climate vulnerability assessments, development plans, and socioeconomic data. The analysis aims to inform policy and institutional strategies to strengthen community-level adaptive capacity and contribute to ongoing efforts by MSDHS to integrate social protection, disaster preparedness, and inclusive planning into national climate adaptation and disaster risk management frameworks. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 25 Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand 5.1 Case Study Selection and Analytical Framework The four case study sights purposefully represent different geographic and climatic contexts. Across the four research sites, different types of climate hazards intersect differently with socioeconomic and governance conditions to shape resilience outcomes. In Ban Bang Song, repeated floods strain economic stability and social support systems, despite strong local initiative. Ban Santisuk faces persistent drought and limited alternative livelihoods, with tensions over water access revealing both institutional and social fragmentation. In Ban Pha Tai, a lack of citizenship and geographic isolation prevent access to essential services, while internal solidarity compensates for external neglect. In Balasoh, compounding risks of erosion, urban flooding, and livelihood loss expose structural weaknesses in coastal infrastructure and emergency planning. FIGURE 12: CASE STUDY LOCATIONS Source: GIS Geography. https://gisgeography.com/thailand-map/ (accessed on 17 February 2025) 26 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand The analysis is structured around three resilience pathways - economic resources, institutional capacity, and social cohesion - that determine how well communities can prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related shocks. The study also considers three categories of resilience strategies - prevention, coping, and transformation - which provide insight into the depth and direction of adaptation practices observed on the ground. Together, these frameworks guide the comparative analysis of each case study, revealing structural enablers, recurring constraints, and the limited progress toward long-term, transformative adaptation. FIGURE 13: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RESILIENCE PREVENTION COPING MEASURES Economic Institutional Resources Capacity RESILIENCE Social Cohesion TRANSFORMATION Source: Adapted from Barron, Patrick John; Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; El-Horr, Jana; Wilson, Juliette E. A Framework for Understanding and Measuring Resilience: Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. 5.2 Case study findings and lessons 5.2.1 Climate stressors and impacts on vulnerable populations Across different regions and climate stressors, communities share a set of climate stressors that undermine community well-being and reveal the fragility of both environmental systems and community- level infrastructure. Communities are experiencing increasingly frequent and more severe weather-related events, with overlapping effects such as from drought and extreme heat and coastal erosion and seasonal flooding. Environmental pressures, such as sedimentation and blocked drainage and deforestation and unregulated land use, compound the challenges and further hinder recovery. The economic stability of those whose livelihoods depend on natural resources is threatened by income volatility and deeper household debt. Poorly constructured housing, the lack of elevated shelters, and inadequate water management infrastructure increases exposure to the impacts of floods and storms. Water contamination, prolonged exposure to flood waters, and inadequate sanitation and causing negative health impacts and disrupting schooling. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 27 Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand Climate shocks disproportionately impact populations with limited capacity to prepare, respond, and recover—vulnerability shaped not only by exposure to hazards but also by social, legal, and demographic inequalities. In Thailand, elderly persons and people with disabilities face significant mobility and health challenges during emergencies and require sustained support during recovery. Female-headed households and widows shoulder the dual responsibilities of caregiving and income generation, yet continue to face barriers in accessing credit, land, formal employment, and local decision-making processes. In the North and Northwest, stateless persons and ethnic minorities without Thai citizenship are often excluded from government relief, disaster compensation, and social protection schemes. Language barriers among ethnic minorities—particularly in highland areas—and limited trust in government programs in Thailand’s Deep South further marginalize ethnic and conflict-affected communities. Children and youth experience prolonged setbacks due to school disruptions and increased social risks, including drug use. Landless and informally settled populations face heightened displacement risk and often lack adequate relocation and recovery support. The intersectionality of these vulnerabilities demonstrates the need for climate policies and programs that are both inclusive and equity-focused. Addressing these risks requires not only improved service delivery, but also legal and institutional reform to ensure that at-risk populations are visible, protected, and empowered within adaptation and disaster management frameworks. It is also important that programs take local conditions into account, recognizing that context-specific solutions are critical for building resilience at the community level. 5.2.2 Community resilience pathways The resilience of disaster-affected communities is shaped by economic resources, institutional capacity, and social cohesion. Table 2 details these three dimensions in each of the four case study sites. TABLE 2: RESILIENCE PATHWAYS Community Economic Resources Institutional Capacity Social Cohesion M.7 Ban Bang Song Dependent on rice, SAO and state agencies Family support remains (Sukhothai, Floods) tobacco, and livestock. provide relief but often important but weakened by Repeated floods cause delayed and uncoordinated. repeated floods. No formal major losses; most External aid limited. evacuation or community households rely on high- response system. interest loans. Limited access to savings and credit. M.2 Ban Santisuk Rice farming dominates but Basic services in place, but Water scarcity fuels (Sukhothai, Drought) vulnerable to rainfall and drought rarely declared, disputes; scattered high costs. Few alternatives limiting aid. SAO provides settlement and loss of like broom-making; food water and small relief; shared labor reduce security increasingly planning is weak. cooperation. strained. 28 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand Community Economic Resources Institutional Capacity Social Cohesion M.12 Ban Pha Tai Small-scale farming and Relief from SAO and Strong kin support but (Chiang Mai, Flash livestock hit hard by floods NGOs, but undocumented limited beyond family. Ethnic Flood, Indigenous) and landslides. Limited residents excluded. Poor diversity sometimes creates savings and credit; lack of communication delays tension in aid distribution land titles excludes some evacuations. and decision-making. from aid. Balasoh Low incomes from fishing, Received support from Neighbors provide help (Songkhla, Coastal trade, and daily labor. external programs and the during crises, but poverty, Erosion) Declining resources and Songkhla City Municipality, leadership changes, and high fuel costs worsen but residents have limited social tensions weaken vulnerability; limited access access to information cohesion. Low participation to credit. and decision-making, in planning. creating gaps in disaster preparedness and long- term resilience planning. 5.2.3 Lessons from community resilience pathways Economic vulnerability is a major barrier to resilience. Households remain deeply exposed to shocks due to their heavy reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods. Communities primarily depend on farming, fishing, and informal labor, and most households lack savings, access to insurance, or eligibility for formal credit systems. Land tenure insecurity and exclusion from government support deepen these vulnerabilities. Strengthening local economies through diversified income opportunities, financial inclusion, and sustainable resource management is essential to building long-term resilience. Local institutions are essential to disaster response, but their capacities are limited by structural and financial constraints.  Subdistrict governments serve on the frontlines yet operate with limited budgets, unclear mandates, and reactive planning. Coordination with national agencies remains weak, and social protection measures—while relevant—are not well integrated into climate risk management. Infrastructure investment and planning is frequently reactive, budgets are insufficient, and vertical coordination with national agencies is limited. Organizations, including MSDHS, play an important role in post-disaster relief, but social protection mechanisms are not fully integrated into disaster response. Social cohesion plays a vital role in buffering communities from shocks, but it is weakening under growing stress. Informal mutual aid and kinship networks still function, but they are eroding under the pressure of repeated shocks, aging populations, and inter-group tensions – particularly in diverse or resource-scarce settings. Leadership transitions and weakened trust in public institutions further complicate cooperation. Strengthening  inclusive governance structures, fostering collaboration between diverse groups, and ensuring equitable access to resources and opportunities will be crucial in building resilient communities capable of withstanding and recovering from future climate-related challenges. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 29 Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand “In our village, we do help each other. When the adults called, the young people who had the strength came to help fill sandbags to build a barrier. But we did not have much lead time, so it wasn’t very effective. The water was too strong – it was more than we could handle with just sandbags. There aren’t many young people left in the village either. I think we needed more time to prepare.” (Male Youth Informant of Ban Bang Song, Pak Khwae sub-district, Sukhothai Province) “Sometimes I have to go very far just to find water. We’re not allowed to use the village reservoir because it’s reserved for the public water “The 2024 flood severely impacted our family’s livelihood and system. I don’t dare use water stability. I am worried another flood of similar magnitude could from the canals either — there are happen again. Because my neighbors and I lack legal land too many chemicals. The house ownership documents, some lack citizenship, we are unable to next door has a well, but they access support to rebuild our homes and face uncertain long- won’t share it with me.” (Elderly term resettlement options. Many of us are still living in temporary woman informant onf Ban Santisuk, shelters or with relative.” (Mr. Se, ethnic farmer of Ban Pha Thai, Nakhunkrai sub-district, Sukhothai Tha Ton sub-district, Chiang Mai Province) province) 5.2.4 Community resilience strategies Community resilience strategies include prevention, coping mechanisms, and transformation. Table 3 describes community efforts in these three strategies across the four case study sites. TABLE 3: RESILIENCE STRATEGIES Case Study Prevention Coping Transformation M.7 Ban Bang Song Small flood defenses; Sandbagging, relocating Some crop diversification; (Sukhothai, Floods) limited savings and to relatives, borrowing, younger residents consider preparedness. temporary income relocation but constrained. adjustments. M.2 Ban Santisuk Limited irrigation and Seasonal migration, Opportunities in alternative (Sukhothai, Drought) rainfall dependence; basic informal borrowing, broom- crops and water early warnings via kin making for extra income. management untapped; no networks. livelihood shift. M.12 Ban Pha Tai Few preventive measures; Informal loans, day labor, Very limited – cultural (Chiang Mai, Flash farming highly exposed; communal rebuilding and ties to land and no formal Flood, Indigenous) lack of land rights. food sharing. relocation or recovery pathways. Balasoh Limited sea walls and Borrowing to repair boats, No planned resettlement (Songkhla, Coastal coastal barriers; poorly temporary relocation, or livelihood diversification; Erosion) maintained. seasonal labor migration. dependence on fishing persists. 30 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand 5.2.5 Lessons from community resilience strategies Communities have developed localized coping systems and exhibit a level of social resilience, but structural barriers and institutional gaps inhibit progress toward more proactive and transformative adaption. Prevention and preparedness is the least developed aspect of community resilience.  Infrastructure, such as floodwalls, drainage systems, and evacuation routes are lacking or poorly maintained. Institutional investments in early warning systems, preparedness drills, and urban planning are limited and ecosystem- based solutions—such as mangrove or watershed restoration—are rarely adopted despite their long- term benefits. Ecosystem-based solutions such as mangrove restoration or watershed protection are also underutilized. Coping strategies are widespread among local communities, reflecting both their resourcefulness and the growing strain of managing recurring climate shocks with limited and often unsustainable means. Households commonly rely on informal, short-term measures such as elevating homes, borrowing money, shifting to less risky livelihoods, or temporarily migrating for work. Community aid networks and mutual support systems also play a critical role in helping families meet urgent needs. However, these strategies are largely reactive and unsustainable. They may address immediate challenges but do not reduce long- term vulnerability or strengthen resilience to future climate risks. The repeated dependence on informal borrowing, labor migration, and community-based support indicates not only the resilience of communities but also signals deepening fragility and resource depletion. While local coping mechanisms are vital, communities cannot be left to manage climate risks alone. More sustained, inclusive, and well-targeted institutional support is urgently needed to reduce systemic vulnerabilities and build long-term resilience. While communities across Thailand are demonstrating resilience through informal and localized coping mechanisms, effective transformative adaptation—such as planned relocation, land reform, long-term livelihood shifts, or institutionalized risk governance—remains rare and under-supported. Across all four communities, adaptation efforts remain largely reactive, fragmented, and driven by overstretched local actors. Potentially effective programs are isolated and not institutionalized as part of a national adaptation approach. Without coordinated national investment in transformative, community-driven solutions—including inclusive planning, secure land tenure, resilient infrastructure, and livelihood transitions—vulnerable communities will continue to face compounding risks with diminishing capacity to cope. Urgent action is needed to move beyond short-term coping and toward long-term, systemic resilience built on an understanding of the localized context. While communities are coping, they are not yet equipped to transform. Without improved access to resources, stronger institutions, and inclusive bottom-up planning processes, resilience will remain uneven and reactive—rather than forward-looking and sustainable. Advancing resilience will require bridging prevention, coping and transformation actions with strengthened institutional support and meaningful community engagement. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 31 Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand 5.3 Managing climate change and disaster risks locally Local institutional practices, coordination challenges, budgeting, and implementation dynamics directly shape how resilience is built or constrained in practice. Although Thailand’s disaster management framework provides clear mandates, implementation of national climate policies at the local level varies. Structural and administrative factors, institutional limitations, and a stronger emphasis on mitigation rather than adaptation shape local governments’ capacity to manage climate risks and support community resilience. Addressing these gaps would strengthen community-based adaptation and protection of vulnerable populations. Absence of district level planning. Although responsibilities for disaster risk management are shared between the provincial and local levels, a critical gap exists at the district level. The absence of formal disaster management planning at the district level leads to a disconnect in coordination between provincial and local responses, undermining the coherence of risk response efforts and challenging the timely and efficient delivery of support during emergencies. Quality of local plans. Although local plans exist, they are often generic, disconnected from community risk profiles, and developed without meaningful public participation. Community participation in disaster planning is limited; consultations are commonly top-down rather than inclusive problem-solving processes. Marginalized groups, who face unique and complex vulnerabilities, frequently find their concerns overlooked in disaster planning. Inconsistent implementation of plans. Although SAOs have structured action plans, implementation at the  village and community level is inconsistent. The process is often reduced to  filling out standardized forms. Some localities develop formal documents while others operate on an  ad-hoc basis, addressing issues only as they arise. Weak vertical coordination and lack of prioritization. A lack of coordination between national, provincial, and local disaster management plans  undermines effective implementation.  Provincial plans often fail to align with local needs, while community-level plans struggle to secure higher-level support. Project selection lacks transparency, with no standardized criteria for prioritization, leading to limited funding for community- proposed initiatives. Disaster response projects often prioritize economic and industrial zones or tourism areas, rather than focusing on protecting vulnerable communities. Community leaders and residents feel that decision-making is influenced by political or economic interests, rather than actual disaster risks, creating perceptions of inequity and diminishing trust. Financial constraints and local disaster response. Disaster response and climate adaptation efforts face significant budgetary limitations. Budget allocations at both provincial and local levels are insufficient to keep up with the increasing frequency and severity of disasters – even when supplemented by funds reallocated from other budget categories. At the  community level, disaster preparedness and response largely depend on  the capacity of local administrative organizations (LAOs), such as SAOs or municipal offices. If  local governments are proactive and well-funded, disaster response efforts can be managed more effectively. However, if  awareness or financial resources are lacking, disaster management at the community level becomes severely constrained.  Villages and community groups do not have direct access to dedicated disaster management funds, as they  are not legally recognized as budget-holding administrative units like SAOs or municipalities. In most cases, they must rely on external funding sources, such as village development funds, community welfare funds, or donations from external organizations. As a result, most  community-level disaster response efforts depend primarily on manpower, including  local leaders, disaster prevention volunteers, and mutual aid among residents. Furthermore, post-disaster 32 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Local Governance and Resilience of Communities in High Climate-Risk Areas of Thailand financial assistance is often inadequate to support full recovery. Rigid budget allocation and disbursement regulations impose strict compliance and auditing requirements which prevent timely fund utilization. Only Thai nationals are entitled to disaster relief funds, typically distributed based on household registration records. This exclusion policy leaves out undocumented residents, migrant workers, and stateless individuals who may have lived in disaster-affected areas for years, underscoring the need for policy reform to establish a  clear, inclusive framework for managing non-citizen populations during disasters. Most disaster-related funding is allocated toward  infrastructure improvements, disaster prevention, evacuation measures, and emergency relief, while insufficient resources are directed toward community adaptation to climate change. There is also a lack of adequate funding for long-term recovery and improving the quality of life for disaster- affected populations. Without a more balanced approach to budgeting, vulnerable communities remain ill- equipped to recover and build resilience against future disasters. Inadequate Data Systems for Local Vulnerability Mapping. Although communities recognize the importance of prioritizing assistance for  vulnerable groups during disasters, data limitations hinder effective response efforts. Provincial-level government agencies rely primarily  on household registration data which does not always reflect the actual number of residents in affected areas. Local administrative organizations are assigned to conduct  periodic surveys of actual residents, yet  this information is often outdated or unreliable which compromises its usefulness for planning and preparation. Absence of Monitoring and Follow-up for Local Recovery. Disaster management efforts focus primarily on mitigating disaster severity and minimizing loss of life and property. As a result, disaster response has centered on prevention, evacuation, and financial relief leaving a critical gap in follow-up measures to assess whether affected individuals have received adequate support and fully recovered. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 33 Chapter 6. Recommendations The following recommendations, based on the mapping of climate risks and vulnerable populations, an assessment of the climate and disaster risk management landscape, and community case studies, seek to better safeguard Thailand’s vulnerable populations and foster a more climate resilient society. The mapping of climate risks and identifying vulnerable populations provides valuable insights into the geographic and demographic factors that exacerbate susceptibility to climate hazards and allows for targeted interventions to meet specific needs. This understanding is important for enhancing the effectiveness of MSDHS investments aimed at welfare support, climate adaptation, and resilience-building. Moreover, integrating accurate and timely data into decision-making processes enhances the capacity of MSDHS to fulfill its mandate through more efficient resource allocation and robust support mechanisms. To strengthen climate and disaster resilience at the local level, recommendations also support both short-term improvements and long-term system strengthening – particularly for subdistrict governments, provincial agencies, and the MSDHS. To improve data for climate and disaster risk management decision-making: Recommendation 1: Enhance Data Systems on Climate Change Impacts for Vulnerable Populations 1.1 Precisely Define Vulnerability Given that numerous agencies are involved in collecting and managing data on vulnerable populations, it is imperative for all relevant entities to collaboratively develop a precise and comprehensive definition of vulnerability. This definition is essential for the effective formulation and implementation of policies, plans, and budgets. MSDHS, in partnership with pertinent ministries and agencies, should Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 35 Recommendations work towards establishing a unified understanding of vulnerable populations that go beyond MSDHS definitions to ensure that no vulnerable population is left behind. When defining vulnerable populations, especially those affected by climate change or other shocks, it is important for entities like MSDHS to strive for precision while also ensuring the definition remains adaptable. This flexibility is crucial because the groups vulnerable to one type of shock may differ significantly from those vulnerable to another. The capacity to adjust the lens through which vulnerability is viewed, considering the diverse nature and dimensions of shocks, is thus essential for comprehensive identification and support of all at-risk groups. This requires setting clear criteria to identify which groups are considered vulnerable and delineating specific responsibilities for each agency in addressing the needs of these groups. Achieving such clarity will enhance data collection and analysis, ensure comprehensive coverage, and prevent the oversight of any vulnerable individuals, thereby strengthening the overall support framework. 1.2 Develop a Comprehensive Vulnerability Index To enhance the SMO Logbook indicators, it is essential for all relevant departments within MSDHS that manage data on vulnerable populations, along with the ICTC, to collaborate in developing a detailed and comprehensive vulnerability index. This index should integrate key factors such as: • Socio-economic status: income levels, debts, and employment status, and social cohesion/ networks within the community. • Demographic characteristics: age, gender, disabilities, race, ethnicity, and citizenship. • Housing and infrastructure: land ownership, residence type, and location of residential properties. • Social and community networks: levels of isolation, social networks, literacy, and language barriers. • Health and access to services: prevalence of illness and access to healthcare facilities and other services beyond health care. To enhance its precision and utility, the index should also include subcategories tailored to specific climate shocks—such as floods, droughts, extreme heat, and coastal erosion—reflecting the varied impacts on vulnerable populations. Moreover, implementing additional measures, such as proxy means tests, can provide a more nuanced understanding of household well-being, thereby compensating for limitations in capturing income data effectively. This nuanced approach would enable policymakers to target interventions more effectively and allocate resources in a manner that maximizes impact. 1.3 Gather Household and Community-Level Data The study highlights the critical need for granular data collection at the community level. Current data systems often provide only generalized district-level insights, which are insufficient for identifying specific vulnerable communities or households. To develop and implement a robust disaster management strategy that addresses the unique needs of these populations, the following actions are recommended: • Conduct Household and Community-Level Assessments: Prioritize the collection of vulnerable populations at both household and community levels, moving beyond reliance on registered information. MSDHS would need to review its staff and potential consultant capacity to proceed with data collection and assessment. This review should be done in close collaboration with local governments which have the convening power to bring these vulnerable populations together for data collection. This approach would enable precise targeting of interventions and efficient resource allocation. 36 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Recommendations • Implement Regular Updates to Data Systems: The composition of vulnerable populations is continually changing due to shifts in demographics, social mobility, and economic conditions. To ensure the accuracy and relevance of these datasets, it is crucial to update demographic information at least annually. This process should be conducted in collaboration with local governments. • Regularly Update Disaster Risk Assessments: MSDHS should work closely with relevant agencies to continuously revise disaster risk assessments to incorporate natural changes and infrastructural modifications, such as new flood barriers, floodways, and dam height alterations. This would help to ensure that risk assessments remain current and effective. 1.4 Integrate Data and Ensure Secure Access MSDHS leads the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed with 29 agencies27 to enhance the national database of vulnerable populations. This initiative aims to address weaknesses in Thailand’s social protection system which struggles to effectively respond to climate change and other shocks due to its fragmented structure. Numerous social assistance programs operate independently, limiting their joint ability to enhance resilience. This fragmentation is evident in post-disaster aid, which often does not meet needs and is slow to address gradual-onset disasters like droughts. A significant challenge is the difficulty in identifying all vulnerable households, especially those newly affected by shocks or in the informal sector, which hinders expansion of coverage or creation of responsive programs. Integrating the MSDHS vulnerable population data system with other relevant agencies into a national social registry28 is an essential step for more accurate and efficient identification of vulnerable populations, enabling targeted and equitable social assistance and facilitating rapid support during crises. The data system would comply with the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA), ensuring a strong security framework to govern data access across different administrative levels. Additionally, local government and community-level data accessibility is crucial, as local leaders and networks play an important role in supporting vulnerable populations during disasters. 1.5 Strengthen MSDHS Big Data System To facilitate evidence-based disaster response and foster long-term social protection planning, MSDHS must undertake strategic enhancements to its big data system. This involves the integration of real-time, multi-source datasets comprising information on vulnerable populations, disaster risks, and service delivery mechanisms. The strengthening of the big data system should prioritize the improvement of interoperability between agencies, the standardization of data formats, and the adoption of cutting- edge digital tools for predictive analytics. Such advancements will empower MSDHS to proactively identify at-risk groups and respond with greater efficacy to dynamic and complex crises. By establishing a robust and integrated data infrastructure, MSDHS can significantly enhance its capacity to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of disasters, thereby safeguarding vulnerable communities. 27 MSDHS signed an MOU with 15 ministries and 14 agencies on June 18, 2025, to integrate and improve the database of vulnerable populations and persons with disabilities and the elderly. MSDHS will lead this effort along with key agencies including MOI, MOPH, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, and the Big Data Institute. 28 Thailand Country Climate and Development Report, June 2025. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 37 Recommendations 1.6 Establish an Integrated Risk and Vulnerability Mapping System MSDHS should collaborate with various agencies to develop comprehensive risk and vulnerability maps at national and provincial levels. This involves: • Collaboration with the Ministry of Public Health: Collect community-level health data, such as the number of bedridden individuals in each subdistrict. • Partnership with Local Administrative Organizations: Track household-level population data and support needs. • Linkages with Climate Change Agencies: Integrate climate risk data into social vulnerability assessments by working with agencies such as the Department of Climate Change and Environment, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, and the Office of the National Water Resource Committee. Recommendation 2: Invest in Capacity Building Support To enhance the efficacy of disaster management strategies, it is important that MSDHS invests in the comprehensive development of its officers’ skills and capabilities across all hierarchical levels. This involves a focused effort on improving competencies in the collection of reliable and valid data, as well as the nuanced interpretation of such data. The enhancement of these skills is fundamental for leveraging data as a pivotal foundation for informed decision-making processes, particularly in the context of disaster management for vulnerable populations. By equipping officers with advanced data handling and analytical skills, MSDHS can ensure that interventions are both timely and effectively targeted, thereby optimizing outcomes for those most at risk. Recommendation 3: Strengthen Support to Address Climate Impacts on Vulnerable Populations Given the numerous agencies offering financial and technical assistance to vulnerable populations and populations affected by climate change and disasters, MSDHS should utilize the climate risk and vulnerable population database to effectively coordinate with these agencies. This coordination aims to ensure timely and effective support to vulnerable populations and their households during the pre-disaster, disaster, and post-disaster phases, facilitating recovery and enhancing community adaptation and resilience. Additionally, MSDHS should reassess its technical criteria to refine its targeted policy and program implementation. The following sub-recommendations offer a strategic framework for strengthening support mechanisms: 3.1 Revise Eligibility Thresholds to Reflect Regional Cost of Living Variations In recognition of the diverse economic landscapes across Thailand’s provinces, MSDHS should consider revising the current eligibility threshold of THB 100,000 per year for social support programs. It is important to consider revising the current poverty threshold to enhance its flexibility, recognizing that vulnerability extends beyond those strictly below the THB 100,000 annual income line. While individuals classified as poor are inherently vulnerable, a significant number of households exceeding this income level may also face economic instability. Therefore, it would be beneficial to explore and experiment with alternative thresholds, ensuring these are grounded in robust measurements of economic vulnerability to capture a more accurate picture of at-risk populations. This revision should account for the significant variations in the cost of living across different regions, ensuring that low- income families residing in high-cost areas receive adequate financial assistance. By aligning eligibility 38 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Recommendations criteria with regional economic realities, MSDHS can enhance the precision and equity of its support mechanisms, thereby ensuring that financial aid is effectively targeted towards those most in need. This approach not only addresses immediate economic disparities but also strengthens the resilience of vulnerable populations against climate-induced economic pressures. 3.2 Implement Preventive Support Programs for Economically Vulnerable Households To mitigate the risk of economic shocks resulting from climate change or disasters which could cause households slightly above the poverty line to fall below it, MSDHS should identify these potentially vulnerable groups. Collaboration with relevant agencies, such as the MOI’s Community Development Department and the Ministry of Labor’s Department of Employment and Department of Skills Development is essential to effectively implement preventive support programs tailored to this demographic. These programs should focus on providing financial literacy education, access to microcredit, and employment opportunities that enhance economic stability. By proactively supporting households at risk of falling into poverty, MSDHS can prevent the exacerbation of vulnerabilities due to climate-related economic disruptions. This preventive strategy not only strengthens the economic resilience of near-poverty households but also contributes to broader social protection goals by reducing poverty incidence and enhancing community resilience to climate impacts. Additionally, MSDHS should play a key role in facilitating and coordinating technical and financial support programs using the shared vulnerable population data system. This system will assist individuals and households impacted by climate or disasters by effectively targeting support for disaster preparation, managing vulnerable populations during crises and disasters, and providing livelihood adaptation and resilience support. Recommendation 4: Strengthen future cost assessments MSDHS should work with relevant agencies to strengthen cost estimates of potential climate events by including additional information short-term expenses, such as business disruptions and infrastructure damage beyond residential housing. Additionally, long-term indirect effects like additional public and private healthcare costs from flood-related illnesses and injuries, as well as prolonged displacement expenses, should be considered. Replacement cost estimates should reflect the actual value of damaged housing and infrastructure rather than government mitigation spending to capture the true cost of reconstruction. Expanding socioeconomic profiling to include ethnicity, disability, and other vulnerability factors would strengthen the analysis from a social perspective. Furthermore, to enhance policy relevance, cost assessments should differentiate between flood types—riverine, flash, or coastal—and other environmental risks such as droughts and extreme temperatures. To strengthen local climate governance and community resilience: Recommendation 5: Clarify and Enhance the Roles of Key Institutions 5.1 Strengthen coordination across national, provincial, and local government agencies Effective climate governance requires consistent communication, role clarity, and joint planning across all levels of administration. Coordination mechanisms should be institutionalized through regular planning cycles, inter-agency working groups, and shared data systems. This includes establishing vertical coordination platforms that involve MSDHS, MOI’s DDPM, and local governments in annual joint planning, monitoring, and resource alignment. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 39 Recommendations 5.2 Ensure that Subdistrict Administrative Organizations and municipalities are equipped with the resources and operational capacity to fulfill their climate and disaster responsibilities While their mandates under the legal framework are clear, many local governments face critical constraints in staff, skills, and budgets. Targeted support should be provided to expand technical and financial capacities for risk assessments, preparedness planning, and community engagement. Roles should be further differentiated across levels of government to improve clarity, reduce duplication, and enhance coordination. It is essential that each agency—from SAOs to provincial and municipal authorities—clearly understands its responsibilities in disaster and climate governance and is enabled to fulfill them through appropriate support, communication, and collaboration mechanisms. 5.3 Develop community-specific disaster response plans Each community faces unique disaster risks, such as floods, droughts, or coastal erosion. Disaster response plans should be tailored to address these specific threats and account for the presence of vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities. Plans should ensure effective preparedness and targeted assistance for these groups. 5.4 Improve assistance and communication channels before, during, and after disasters Communities should receive timely warnings and clear information about evacuation centers and transportation arrangements. Assistance should focus on rapid response, including the distribution of essential supplies, protection of homes, and evacuation of vulnerable individuals. Residents must be aware of designated points of contact for emergency support. 5.5 Strengthen community-level response mechanisms Local administrative organizations should train community leaders on disaster response procedures, ensuring they can assist residents effectively. Greater awareness of disaster risks and their potential impacts will improve community preparedness. 5.6 Enhance infrastructure resilience The national government, local government, and relevant agencies such as MOI’s DDPM and MSDHS should ensure that infrastructure—particularly evacuation centers, temporary shelters, and housing for vulnerable populations—is climate-resilient, safe, and inclusive. Investments should prioritize facilities that are structurally sound, accessible year-round, and equipped to meet the specific needs of high- risk groups, including the elderly, persons with disabilities, pregnant women, and young children. Shelters should be equipped with assistive devices, mobility aids, appropriate bedding, sanitary facilities, and medical supplies tailored to these groups. In addition, safety considerations for women, girls, and LGBTQ+ individuals must be integrated into the design and operation of shelters, including well-lit areas, private spaces, gender-sensitive sanitation facilities, and protection measures against violence or harassment. Infrastructure upgrades should also include drainage systems, all-weather roads, and accessible transportation routes to facilitate safe evacuation and efficient delivery of post- disaster relief. These investments will strengthen both immediate disaster response and long-term resilience for populations most at risk. 5.7 Support stable livelihood opportunities for vulnerable populations Economic recovery efforts should align with local needs and disaster risks, such as promoting climate-resilient agriculture. Comprehensive economic support systems should include skills training, employment opportunities, and access to markets to ensure long-term income stability. 40 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Recommendations Recommendation 6: Strengthen Community Participation in Governance and Planning 6.1 Formalize inclusive and participatory community resilience planning processes at the local level Local climate resilience planning should institutionalize inclusive and gender-sensitive participation, ensuring that vulnerable groups—such as women, persons with disabilities, older persons, youth, ethnic minorities, and low-income households—have a meaningful role in shaping adaptation strategies. Local governments, together with relevant agencies such as the MSDHS, MOI’s DDPM, and the DCCE, should play a proactive role in facilitating these processes. Efforts should be made to strengthen public understanding of different types of climate risks—such as floods, droughts, extreme heat, and coastal erosion—and to integrate this knowledge and the associated social impacts into local planning and decision-making. Planning mechanisms must also address barriers related to language, literacy, and power dynamics to ensure broad and equitable engagement. By embedding these participatory approaches into local development and disaster risk plans, communities can co-design effective and context-specific solutions, monitor implementation, and enhance accountability—ensuring that climate responses are informed, inclusive, and responsive to real needs on the ground. 6.2 Align local and community disaster response plans Disaster preparedness plans should be based on evidence and local risk assessments, ensuring they reflect actual community needs. Public consultations must involve genuine participation from residents, including vulnerable groups, rather than relying on majority voting without in-depth discussions. 6.3 Promote two-way communication between communities and local authorities Ensure that disaster plans and progress updates are clearly communicated to residents and that local governments actively seek and incorporate feedback. This includes transparent communication of objectives, implementation timelines, and responsible actors. 6.4 Equip community leaders Community representatives should receive training in disaster risk reduction, resource allocation, and emergency planning to enhance local resilience. 6.5 Institutionalize annual community disaster response reviews  Communities should report on disaster response actions at least once a year, assessing progress and identifying areas for improvement. 6.6 Regularly update disaster response plans and population data Annual reviews of disaster response plans should involve community participation in data collection, including updates on vulnerable populations, housing conditions, and evacuation center management. 6.7 Establish accessible and trusted feedback mechanisms Communities should be able to report gaps, submit suggestions, and engage with local disaster management efforts through community meetings, hotlines, or digital platforms. 6.8 Strengthen internal community networks Local networks should be developed to  enhance collaboration in disaster preparedness and response among community members. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 41 Recommendations Recommendation 7: Ensure Effective Implementation of Disaster Plans 7.1 Improve the accuracy and usefulness of population data systems for disaster response Current disaster management relies on household registration data, which  does not reflect actual residency or migration patterns. More  accurate and up-to-date data  on vulnerable populations, including exact locations and risk levels, is necessary to prioritize assistance effectively. 7.2 Ensure that local institutions are supported by sufficient and capable personnel Disaster response teams must include  adequate numbers of trained personnel with knowledge of  climate risks, disaster preparedness, and vulnerable populations. Local government officials, community leaders, and civil society representatives—including women, youth, and elderly groups— should be trained to contribute effectively. 7.3 Secure adequate and flexible budget allocations for all phases of disaster management. With climate change intensifying disaster risks, funding must cover awareness campaigns, disaster prevention, emergency response, and long-term recovery efforts. Budgeting should not only focus on relief and reconstruction but also on community-led climate adaptation, livelihood restoration, and infrastructure upgrades to improve resilience. Recommendation 8: Advance Adaptation to Slow-Onset Climate Impacts To effectively help communities cope with the slow onset of climate impacts, it is essential to prioritize awareness and education. A multifaceted approach should be adopted that includes: 8.1 Raise public awareness of slow-onset climate impacts Informing communities about climate change and its potential impacts is crucial. Leveraging lessons learned from previous disasters can provide practical insights for adaptation. This can be achieved through workshops or community forums that encourage knowledge and experience sharing. 8.2 Empower community leaders to drive local awareness efforts Governments should invest in enhancing the capacities of community leaders and groups. Training programs focused on climate resilience and adaptive strategies should be implemented to prepare leaders to take proactive measures in their communities. 8.3 Integrate climate education in school curricula Educational institutions should integrate life skills related to climate change awareness and adaptation strategies into their curricula. This will equip future generations with the knowledge needed to navigate environmental challenges. 8.4 Strengthen support for vulnerable populations and their families It is vital to focus on vulnerable populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. Initiatives should aim to bolster their adaptive capacity and responsiveness to climate impacts. This can include targeted training programs and resources that are tailored to their specific needs. 42 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Recommendations 8.5 Enhance collaboration among all sectors to help communities cope with the slow onset of climate impacts A key aspect is promoting participatory processes in developing community climate adaptation plans, ensuring that the plans are tailored to the specific challenges of each area. Furthermore, support is necessary to turn these plans into action, which includes providing operational assistance, technical guidance, and budget allocation. This support enables communities to implement their proposed projects and activities effectively. 8.6 Ensure government policy reflects a commitment to adaptation strategies that extend beyond traditional disaster risk reduction Policies should include funding for community-based adaptation initiatives, development of infrastructure to withstand climate impacts, and incentives for sustainable practices. Furthermore, promoting collaboration among government agencies, NGOs, and local communities will enhance society’s overall resilience to climate change. Recommendation 9: Strengthen the Role of the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security The MSDHS plays an important role at both the national and local levels in addressing the social impacts of climate change, which directly affect human security and sustainable development. A key area of focus is supporting vulnerable populations and ensuring their specific needs are effectively met. This involves systematically identifying and categorizing vulnerable groups, compiling comprehensive real-time data on their locations and risk levels, and integrating this information with disaster risk mapping. Maintaining a centralized and regularly updated database could facilitate more efficient disaster response planning at both national and local levels. MSDHS should also develop joint operating procedures and shared data systems in collaboration with technical ministries, including MOI’s DDPM and MNRE, to ensure alignment between climate adaptation and disaster response protocols. A coordinated, cross-sectoral approach to disaster management would help strengthen preparedness and response efforts. Provincial-level agencies (P-MSDHS) could collaborate more closely with local administrative organizations, community leaders, and residents to raise awareness about climate change and disaster risks. This may include planning for evacuations and relocations of vulnerable groups, ensuring they receive timely assistance during disasters, and providing structured post-disaster recovery support. These efforts should be supported by regular inter-agency planning workshops and mechanisms that integrate MSDHS services into broader local disaster management systems. In addition to immediate relief efforts, prioritizing long-term rehabilitation programs could help affected individuals regain stability and reintegrate into their communities. To support these efforts, MSDHS and relevant agencies (such as Provincial offices of MSDHS and the Technical and Promotional and Support Office of MSDHS) may consider refining their roles to enhance coordination in disaster response. Allocating a dedicated budget for disaster management—covering data collection, public awareness initiatives, financial assistance for vulnerable groups, and long-term recovery programs—could further improve preparedness and response mechanisms. Strengthening institutional capacity and financial resources would allow MSDHS to take a more proactive role in mitigating the social impacts of climate change and disasters, ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the necessary protection and support. Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 43 Recommendations To strengthen gender aspects in MSDHS climate risk and disaster management: The following recommendations aim to create a resilient and inclusive framework for climate risk and disaster management by integrating gender considerations in the efforts to improve the enabling environment and address the unique challenges posed by floods, heat and drought, and coastal erosion. The Department of Women’s Affairs and Family Development (DWAFD) will take the lead to work with relevant agencies in these efforts. Recommendation 10: Strengthen Governance and Policy Frameworks for Gender- Responsive Climate Action  10.1 Integrate gender perspectives into climate strategies with gender impact assessments to create inclusive, sustainable solutions. Thailand has made international commitments to address gender and climate change, yet national policies remain largely gender-neutral, limiting their effectiveness in responding to the distinct needs of women, men, and gender-diverse individuals. While some progress has been made, structural inequalities persist—particularly in financial inclusion, access to services, and decision-making power. Embedding gender perspectives across all levels of climate policies and strategies is critical. To make climate action more equitable and effective, the government should institutionalize gender impact assessments in all climate-related policies and programs to ensure that adaptation and mitigation efforts respond to the specific vulnerabilities and capacities of all genders. It should also develop sector-specific gender strategies tailored to different types of climate risks and local contexts—such as improving women farmers’ access to drought-resistant crops, irrigation systems, and land rights in agriculture; supporting women’s recovery and alternative livelihoods in flood-prone fisheries communities; promoting technical training and job placement for women in renewable energy and energy-efficient construction to address heat-related urban risks; and ensuring safe shelter design to protect vulnerable groups during extreme weather events and post-disaster recovery. These actions are essential to ensure that climate policies do not reinforce existing inequalities but instead contribute to inclusive and sustainable resilience. 10.2 Institutionalize gender-disaggregated data systems to guide inclusive adaptation measures and enhance community resilience. Effective climate policies depend on accurate, gender-disaggregated data to identify who is most at risk, allocate resources efficiently, and track the impact of interventions. However, Thailand’s current data systems remain fragmented, limiting understanding of how climate change affects women, female- headed households, informal workers, and gender-diverse populations. Due to caregiving roles, occupational segregation, and socioeconomic inequalities, women face heightened risks such as food insecurity, health problems, and income loss—especially during agricultural shocks like droughts and floods. Yet national surveys and disaster assessments often overlook gender-specific risks, such as heat stress, increased caregiving burdens, and gender-based violence during post-disaster recovery. Land tenure insecurity and informal employment further increase women’s vulnerability. To ensure climate adaptation strategies are inclusive and effective, DWAFD should work with agencies across MSDHS and the 29 partner agencies enhancing the vulnerable data system to strengthen gender-responsive data collection and analysis. This includes mandating gender-disaggregated data in all national climate, labor, health, and socioeconomic surveys; expanding research on gendered climate impacts among marginalized groups; and developing climate vulnerability indices with gender- sensitive indicators to build resilience and guide adaptive policy responses. 44 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand Recommendations 10.3 Enhance women’s leadership in climate governance to ensure diverse voices shape policy decisions. Strengthening leadership and decision-making power across genders is essential for effective and equitable climate governance in Thailand. Yet, women remain underrepresented in decision-making, holding only 26.5% of executive government positions, 18.4% of parliamentary seats, and 20.9% of local governance roles. This limits the inclusion of gender-sensitive perspectives in climate policies and strategies. Evidence shows that when leadership is more inclusive, climate policies are more sustainable, responsive, and fair. To address the root causes of gender inequality and improve the climate leadership system, DWAFD should work with relevant agencies to implement gender- balanced quotas in climate governance bodies—ensuring at least 40% representation of women and meaningful inclusion of men from marginalized backgrounds and gender-diverse individuals at both national and local levels. In parallel, DWAFD should also work with Chief Gender Equality Officers and Gender Focal Points located in all government agencies to invest in leadership development through capacity-building programs, mentorship networks, and targeted funding for women-led, youth-led, and gender-diverse climate initiatives—ensuring all voices are heard and valued in shaping Thailand’s climate future. Recommendation 11: Enhancing gender-inclusive climate action at the local level 11.1 Develop and Implement targeted gender and climate awareness programs to empower women and marginalized communities for active participation in climate-related planning, decision-making, and implementation. Despite their vital knowledge of local environments and their roles in managing household and community resources, women and marginalized groups are often excluded from climate policy processes. To address this gap, the government should design culturally sensitive and locally tailored awareness campaigns that raise understanding of how different climate risk affects different genders. These programs must be accessible to both urban and rural populations, ethnic minorities, older persons, and people with disabilities, using diverse communication methods such as community radio, mobile platforms, and trusted local networks. At the same time, capacity-building initiatives should equip women and gender-diverse individuals with the skills, confidence, and opportunities to actively contribute to the design and implementation of local adaptation plans, climate action committees, and disaster preparedness efforts. To ensure long-term, inclusive, and effective climate action, government agencies at all levels should commit sufficient resources and institutional support to make these efforts sustainable, participatory, and community driven. 11.2 Collaborate with relevant agencies to ensure equitable access to climate finance, jobs and digital platforms for women and marginalized groups for sustainable livelihoods and inclusive growth. Increasing climate risks may further constrain women’s economic opportunities in Thailand, especially in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and domestic work. Without targeted support, gender gaps in employment and income are likely to grow. The green economy presents a vital opportunity to expand women’s participation through more stable employment in climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy, and sustainable industries. To realize this potential, barriers such as limited access to training, financial services, and labor protections must be addressed. Digital technologies also offer transformative potential to build inclusive climate resilience by improving access to real-time climate data, financial tools, and education. Expanding mobile applications, online learning, and digital finance can empower women, men, and gender-diverse individuals to more effectively participate in adaptation, disaster preparedness, and recovery. The government should Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand 45 Recommendations promote women’s participation in green sectors, provide targeted financial support for women and gender-diverse entrepreneurs, and enhance labor protections. It should also develop gender-sensitive digital platforms for climate services, broaden access to digital finance for marginalized groups, and deploy AI-driven climate risk tools that integrate gender data to inform inclusive and equitable climate responses. Recommendation 12: Build Gender-Responsive and Climate-Resilient Essential Services 12.1 Integrate gender-specific needs into climate-resilient health and education system, ensuring access to material and reproductive healthcare during climate disruptions and creating eduction programs that address gender vulnerabilities. Climate change worsens existing inequalities in health and education, particularly for women and marginalized gender groups such as ethnic minorities, Islamic communities, and people facing poverty, disability, or displacement. Women in informal jobs are especially vulnerable to health risks like malnutrition, heat stress, and respiratory illness, made worse by poor access to healthcare and economic instability. Girls and women also face barriers to climate education and digital literacy, limiting their ability to adapt or engage in decision-making. To build inclusive climate resilience, the government should invest in climate-resilient healthcare—ensuring services for pregnancy, childbirth, and work are prepared for climate-related health risks—and promote gender-sensitive climate education by integrating climate science and disaster preparedness into school curricula. 12.2 Design climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly emergency shelters, with gender-specific safety features to ensure they are safe and accessible for women, girls, and gender-diverse individuals. Many existing shelters and evacuation routes in Thailand lack inclusive features, putting women, girls, older persons, persons with disabilities, and LGBTQIA+ individuals at risk during disasters. Shelters should include gender-segregated and accessible sanitation facilities, safe spaces for women, girls, caregivers, and universal design features such as ramps and privacy areas. Evacuation teams must be trained to respond to the needs of individuals with limited mobility and diverse gender identities. As Thailand becomes an aged society and faces increasing climate risks like floods and extreme heat, climate-adaptive housing and cooling shelters must also be designed with special attention to the needs of older men and women, and persons with disabilities. Integrating these gender-responsive considerations into national disaster and infrastructure planning is essential to ensure equitable, safe, and dignified protection for all. 46 Building Climate Resilience of Vulnerable Populations and Communities in Thailand