POVERTY & EQUITY NOTES TOOLS & METHODS AUGUST 2020 · NUMBER 33 Subnational Targeting of Project Sites Using Project Targeting Index (PTI) Arden Finn and Takaaki Masaki It is critical to ensure that the World Bank portfolio is well targeted to areas with the greatest needs and with greatest potential to maximize development benefits. The Project Targeting Index (PTI) offers an evidence-based approach to inform spatial targeting of projects based on country strategies and objectives. We apply the PTI method for case studies in Madagascar and South Sudan to demonstrate how the tool helps align and monitor Bank project locations with development goals. Tracking how the World Bank’s portfolio of subnational indicators and as a user-friendly tool activities aligns with evolving circumstances in for PTI calculation, to track fast-changing specific countries is challenging. World Bank emergency situations. In Morocco, for instance, the teams engage with countries through important PTI online tool can map reported COVID-19 cases strategic and prioritization exercises, such as the to a battery of subnational socio-economic Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and the indicators. Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). To maximize the development benefits of activities identified under these activities, it is essential to ensure that Methodology projects and programs evolve with changing circumstances while reaching the areas that are most in need. Constructing the PTI requires several steps: Figure 1 shows the lifecycle of PTI construction and The PTI offers a framework for project and application. country teams to match objectives with geographic project site selection. Teams can First, identify development objectives. A clear ensure that project site selection aligns with the set of development objectives that can be country strategy, and the country management measured objectively by data and evidence, and unit (CMU) can monitor consistency between established in close coordination with the project sites and the country strategy. Spatially respective country teams, lays the groundwork for targeting the Bank’s interventions based on PTI mapping. Goals outlined in a Country objective criteria and evidence also helps inject Partnership Framework (CPF) are a good starting transparency into project site selection and point to guide selection of development objectives. promote efficiency in reaching intended beneficiaries. Teams can use the PTI online Second, identify indicators pertaining to the dashboard, 1 which serves both as a database of specific objectives. Once development objectives 1 Examples of the online PTI tool are available for Madagascar (http://w0lxpjekins05.worldbank.org:3939/connect/#/apps/5 (http://w0lxpjekins05.worldbank.org:3939/connect/#/apps/43 52/access). 8/access) and Morocco are agreed upon among stakeholders, indicators constructed. Figure 2 shows an example of a pertaining to those specific objectives are priority map for South Sudan based on a baseline identified. Since PTI informs spatial targeting, these PTI that assigns equal weights to each indicator – indicators need to be available at a subnational darker areas represent areas of higher priority in level (for example, villages, districts, regions, the country according to the PTI. provinces). People most familiar with the country context—project teams, country experts. and sector specialists—should provide input on PTI Case Study: Madagascar indicator selection. Teams may also consult GIS specialists in this selection process as a rich source of high-resolution socio-economic data is now In the CPF for Madagascar, the Performance available to inform spatial targeting at a highly and Learning Review (PLR) used the PTI to disaggregated level. review if the spatial distribution of Bank project sites aligned to country goals. Table 1 provides Third, construct a composite weighted index. the full list of indicators used in the PTI for Once a set of indicators has been identified, these Madagascar’s PLR. The PTI maps were enhanced by indicators are aggregated to construct a composite including World Bank project site data from the index. Often, some indicators vary significantly Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and across a country. One example is the number of Supervision (GEMS). 3 The GEMS database of poor people living in each district. If such an project locations/sites is based on direct inputs indicator is combined with other indicators with from clients, partners, and Bank teams on the limited variation, the composite PTI indicator tends ground. It provides highly granular information on to heavily reflect the geographic pattern of the locations of project implementation sites, which poor population. To avoid this, the PTI standardizes can also be disaggregated by sector and/or theme. all indicators to have mean and variance of 0 and 1 respectively. These standardized indicators are The PTI for Madagascar shows how the number then combined into a composite index. The PTI of projects distributed across 114 districts align aggregates the standardized indicators with with the PTI-generated priority map (Figure 3). weights, which reflect the relative importance of This analysis reveals a relatively good alignment each variable. As the weight of an indicator between Bank project locations and the priority increases, the geographic distribution of priority areas identified. The PTI online dashboard is areas of PTI is more affected by that indicator. To regularly updated to incorporate new information facilitate the process of choosing which weights to on component indicators and project site locations assign to different indicators, the PTI tool includes as it becomes available to monitor degree of an interactive online dashboard that creates a map alignment in a timely manner. of priority areas based on selection of indicators and weights so that country team members can easily see the implications that changing weights Conclusions and Limitations have on the map of priorities. 2 Fourth, construct final PTI. Based on the country The PTI can serve as a powerful tool for project team consensus on weighted indicators, a final PTI planning and monitoring. It draws on a battery of and corresponding map of priority areas is objective indicators to provide insights into 2 See Footnote 1 for examples of the PTI online dashboards g-pocket-science-to-monitor-and-supervise-operations-in- for Madagascar and Morocco. fragile-and-conflict-affected- 3 See more details on GEMS data collection methodology in settings#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20Geo%2DEnabling,%26 the following blog: %20Evaluation%20(M%26E)%20system. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/11/11/usin August 2020 · Number 33 2 geographical priority areas based on certain CMU draw lessons from past experiences. These critical criteria or objectives. Applying this evidence-based pieces of contextual information will be analyzed approach to inform spatial targeting not only through case studies and, if appropriate, through improves cost effectiveness of the Bank portfolio those priority areas. Such context-specific but also maximizes its intended benefits. information cannot be systematically collected by surveys or compiled from administrative data, but The PTI, however, should not be a static tool but it is highly valuable information for future project rather should be adjusted according to teams. Therefore, identifying priority areas should changing circumstances on the ground or as not be based not solely on the PTI. Project teams project objectives evolve. In addition, after project should record any challenges or issues they face in teams identify priority areas, they may face many statistical and econometric methods to inform unexpected challenges and unknown issues in a future project design and targeting decisions. project site so that future project teams can easily Figure 1: Lifecycle of the construction and application of the PTI • Identification of development • Compilation of data on objectives indicators • Selection of indicators • Standardization of each indicator PTI • Discussion on weights of Identification preparation indicators aided by the online tool Monitoring Application • Finalization of PTI and • Monitoring of the geographic mapping priority areas targeting mechanism • Discussion on how to use • Feedback from project teams PTI for guiding project site selection areas Table 1: Example of development goals and indicators in Madagascar AREA I: INCREASE RESILIENCE AND REDUCE FRAGILITY AREA II: PROMOTE INCLUSIVE GROWTH • Percentage of children stunted (2018 Multiple • Poverty headcount rates (in 2012) (2012 household Indicator Cluster Surveys) survey) • Primary education completion rate (2018 Multiple • Number of poor per sq. kilometer (2018 Census & Indicator Cluster Surveys) 2012 household survey) • Drought risk index (Carrao et al. 2016) • Rural accessibility index (provided by WB Transport • Disaster risk composite index (estimated economic GP) costs of cyclone + flooding) (UNEP/DEWA/GRID- • # of firms per 1,000 (indicator of economic Europe) dynamism/potential) (provided by WB Transport GP; INSTAT) August 2020 · Number 33 3 Figure 2: South Sudan’s PTI and six indicators – darker areas indicate higher priority Figure 3: Priority areas identified by the PTI Figure 3 Notes: The map shows priority areas indicated by in Madagascar. color (darker areas represent higher priority) overlaid with the number of projects allocated to a given area. The PTI is constructed based on equal weights being assigned to each of the indicators listed in Table 1. The PTI online tool is available here: ABOUT THE AUTHORS Arden Finn is an Economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice. afinn@worldbank.org Takaaki Masaki is an Economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice. tmasaki@worldbank.org This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on Poverty-related topics. The views expressed in the notes are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank, its board or its member countries. Copies of these notes series are available on www.worldbank.org/poverty August 2020 · Number 33 4