or D evlooi-riii i, _M ,,I 'Co _ _L Co ,f ,. ._,, a. _ CA ' '~- . -' I. -I .,I eX 1 L 0C ,C Itg<.Fl l$ - ; ~26288 April 2003 IA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ A ~ ~ ~ A ..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . .. .. .. 2~~ r : }e,;- - ~ - < . .... :, . . .- . - ,. - . -. * : , t , ..; . .- < OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Operations Evaluation Department (OED) is an independent unit within the World Bank; it reports directly to the Bank's Board of Executive Directors OED assesses what works, and what does not; how a borrower plans to run and maintain a project; and the lasting contribution of the Bank to a country's overall development. The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the Bank's work, and to provide accountability in the achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned from experience and by framing recommendations drawn from evaluation findings WORLD BANK OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT OIOEIDE 2002 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Achieving Development Outcomes: The Millennium Challenge Soniya Carvalho 2003 The World Bank h ttp ://wwwv.worldbank.or-g/oed Washington, D.C. © 2003 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet wwwworldbank org E-mail feedback@worldbank org All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First edition April 2003 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarilv reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent The World Bank cannot guarantee thc accuracy of the data included in this work The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information showvn on any map in the work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endoresement or acceptance of such boundaries Rights and Permissions The material in this publication) is copyrighted Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normallv grant permission promptly For permission to photocopy or repnnt any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc , 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, iMA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, wwwcopynght com All other queries on rigits and licenses, inclucing subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank org Cover photo by Ami Vitale, World Bank Photo Library Child at a community school in Macaci, Cote d'lvoire, a suburb of Abidjan-Centre d'Action Communautaire ISBN 0-8213-5436-1 c-ISBN 0-8213-5520-1 LIbrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data has been applied for World Bank InfoShop Operations Evaluation Department E-mail pic@worldbank org Partnerships & Knowledge Programs (OEDPK) Telephone 202-458-5454 E-mail eline@worldbank org Facsimilie 202-522-1500 Telephone 202-458-4497 Facsimilie 202-522-3125 * Printed on Recycled Paper -J L Contents v Acknowledgments vii Foreword, Pr6logo, Preface xi Executive Summary, Resumen, Resume Analytique xxiii Abbreviations and Acronyms 1 1 The MDGs as a Benchmark for Development Effectiveness 1 MDGs in the World Bank's Corporate Strategy 3 MDGs as a Framework for the ARDE 3 The Risks and Challenges 6 Organization and Sources 9 2 Country Programs and the MDGs 12 How Have the Bank's Country Programs Addressed the MDGs7 18 What Are the Implications for Future Bank Country Programs? 21 3 Sector Programs and the MDGs 22 How Have the Bank's Sector Programs Addressed the MDGs7 31 What Are the Implications for Future Bank Sector Programs? 35 4 Global Programs and the MDGs 35 How Have the Bank's Global Programs Addressed the MDGs7 39 What Are the Implications for Future Bank-Supported Global Programs? 41 5 Conclusions 45 Appendix 55 Annexes 55 A: Millennium Development Goals, Targets, and Indicators 59 B: The Origins and Evolution of the MDGs and IDTs 61 C IDTs and MDG Targets Nearly the Same 63 D: Progress in Achieving Selected MDGs 65 E Bank Initiatives Aimed at Better Managing for Results 69 F: Methods and Data Sources 71 G Achieving Development Outcomes An Overview from the CODE Chairperson 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS 75 Endnotes 79 Bibliography Boxes 2 1.1 The Bank's Corporate Approach to the MDGs 3 1 2 MDGs in the Bank's FY03-05 Strategic Documents 6 1 3 Managing the Risks of Target-Driven Approaches 11 2.1 Regional Picture for Three MDGs 13 2 2 Tailoring the MDGs to Vietnam's Priorities 14 2 3 Quantitative Targets More Common in PRSPs than in CASs 19 2 4 How DFID Is Using the MDGs to Influence Departmental Performance 21 3 1 Many Millions Lack Adequate Incomes and Access to Basic Services 23 3.2 How Can Transport Contribute to Achieving the MDGs? 24 3.3 Rural Development A Rebalancing Act 25 3.4 Tailoring the Health Sector Strategy to Regional Conditions 26 3.5 Intersectoral Linkages ancl the Role of Infrastructure 30 3 6 Monitoring Outcomes in the Peru Second Rural Roads Project 31 3 7 Intersectoral Linkages in the Education Sector Strategy 33 3 8 Social Funds Multisectoral Projects Do Not Guarantee a Holistic Approach 34 3.9 Fast Track Programs and Resource Allocation 36 4 1 Global Programs How Many7 In Which Sectors? 37 4 2 Old and New Partnerships 38 4.3 HIPC. Challenges in Implementing Shared Responsibility Figures 5 1 1 Targets Are Often Set, But Seldom Met 7 1 2 Project Outcomes Show an Upward Trend 10 2.1a Proportion of Population Living on Less Than $1 Per Day in Developing Countries 10 2 lb Primary Completion Rate in Developing Countries (Population Weighted) 11 2.2 Proportion of Population in South Asia (SA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Living on Less Than $1 per Day 11 2.3 Primary School Completion Rate in South Asia (SA) and Africa Region (AFR) (population weighted) 12 2 4 Under-Five Mortality in South Asia (SA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 15 2 5 Burkina Faso-Current and Required Trend for Under-Five Mortality Rate 18 2 6 Lending Composition Has Shifted by Theme but Not by Sector 27 3.1 Project Performance More Than 80 Percent Satisfactory in FYO0-02 (Partial) 27 3 2 Project Performance Less Than 80 Percent Satisfactoty in FYOO-02 (Partial) 28 3.3 Education and Health Lending with MDG-Related Priority Themes Has Slightly Better Outcomes than Other Lending in Those Sectors 29 3.4 Project Success Is Influenced by the Country's Policy Environment Tables 22 3 1 Each Sector Is Linked to More Than One MDG, and Many Sectors Are Linked to Many MDGs 29 3 2 Examples of Intermediate Indicators in the Health Sector IV Acknowledgments T his Review was prepared by a team led by Bank staff. Shahrokh Fardoust, Afef Hacldacd, Soniva Carvalho The core team and chap- Barbara Lee, Aloysius Ordu, John Sinclair, Eric ter authors comprised Caroline Bahnson, Swanson, and Irene Xenakis. The Review also Anju Gupta Kapoor, Manuel Penalver-Quesada, benefited from discussions with Hans Martin Roger Slade, andJack van Hoist Pellekaan Team Boehmer, Kevin Cleaver, Shanta Devarajan, Lucia members and background paper authors in- Fort, Ian Goldin, Sanjeev Gupta, Robert Hecht, cluded Maurice Boissiere, Basudev Dahal, Peter Mark Hildebrand, Christine Kessides, Geoffrey Kimm, Anthony Pellegrini, Margaret Saunders, Lamb, Christopher Lovelace, Christina Malm- and Christopher Willoughby. William Battaile, berg Calvo, Karen Mason, Ernesto May, Tamar Christopher Gerrarcl, Zamir Islamshah, and Car- Manuelyan Atinc, Calvin McDonald, David Steel, los Reyes contributed to inclividual chapters. Susan Stout, Susan Razzaz, and Ritva Reinikka. Data collection and analysis were conducted by The Review was prepared under the direction Dilawar Bajauri, Marcello Basani, and Abeba Tad- of Victoria Elliott, Manager of OEDCM. dese. William Hurlbut, Caroline McEuen, and The study was published in OED's Partner- Linda Peterson provided editorial support. The ships and Knowledge Group, under the direction team was assisted byAnnisa Cline-Thomas,Julia of Osvaldo Feinstein, by the Outreach and Dis- Ooro, Romayne Pereira, and Yezena Yimer semination staff of the Knowledge Management Contributions from numerous OED staff are Unit, including Patrick Grasso, lead knowledge gratefully acknowledged. In addition, useful management officer, Caroline McEuen, editor, comments were received from the following and Juicy Qureishi-Huq, team assistant Director-General, Operations Evaluation Gregory K Ingrain Director, Operations Evaluation Department (Actimg) N/s Fostvedt Manager, Corporate Evaluation and Methods Victori-a Elliott lask Manager Sontya Carvalho v FOREWORD FOREWORD PROLOGO PREFACE I The development community La comunidad interesada en el Les Objectifs de developpe- is aligned around the Millennium De- desarrollo ha demostrado hacia los ment pour le millenaire (ODM) ont sus- velopment Goals (MDGs) in an un- objetivos de desarrollo del milenio cite un consensus sans precedent au precedented way. By focusing on the (ODM) un respaldo sin precedentes. sein de la communaute du developpe- achievement of quantified and time- Al centrarse en la consecuci6n de ment. En focalisant l'action sur la rea- bound development targets covering metas de desarrollo cuantificables y lisation d'objectifs de developpement income and non-income measures of con plazos definidos, y no limitarse a quantifies et lies a des echeances prb- well-being, the MOGs provide a unique medir el bienestar en funci6n del in- cises, qui couvrent les mesures du re- opportunity to make headway in the greso, dichos objetivos ofrecen una venuetd'autreselementsdubien-etre, fight against poverty. While their en- oportunidad singular para progresar les ODM fournissent une occasion dorsement can help the Bank improve en la lucha contra la pobreza. Si bien unique d'avancer sur le front de la pau- development outcomes, it also entails la adhesi6n a ellos puede ayudar al vrete. Certes, I'adoption de ces objec- risks and challenges-notably the risk Banco Mundial a mejorar los resulta- tifs peut aider la Banque a obtenir de of nonattainment and the challenge of dos de sus actividades de desarrollo, meilleurs resultats au plan du deve- localizing the MDGs to country condi- tambien entrafia riesgos y desafios, en loppement, mais elle comporte des tions. The Bank's effectiveness in ad- particular el riesgo de no alcanzar los risques et soulbve des problemes- en dressing the MDGs will depend on objetivos fijados y el desafio de adap- particulier le risque de ne pas atteindre how well it manages these risks and tarlos a las condiciones de cada pais. les objectifs et le probleme que pose challenges. La eficacia del Banco para abordar I'adaptation des ODM aux realitbs de This Review assesses, using avail- los ODM dependera de su habilidad chaque pays. L'efficacite de la Banque able evaluation evidence, how the para superar unos y otros. dans l'action menee pour atteindre les World Bank's country, sector, and En el presenteExamenanualde ODM dependra de la fa9on dont elle global programs are helping clients la eficacia en terminos de desarro- gere ces risques et ces problemes. work toward the MDGs and related llo se analiza, utilizando informaci6n Le present examen analyse, sur targets It complements the Quality procedente de evaluaciones realiza- la base des elements d'appr6ciation Assurance Group's 2002 Annual Re- das, la manera en que los programas disponibles, la facon dont les pro- view of Portfolio Performance, which nacionales, sectoriales y mundiales grammes d'assistance de la Banque has poverty and the MDGs as a spe- del Banco estan ayudando a los pai- aux niveaux national, sectoriel et cial theme, the Bank's Annual ses clientes a avanzar hacia el logro mondial aident les pays clients a pro- Progress Report on Poverty Reduc- de los objetivos de desarrollo del mi- gresser dans la direction des ODM et tion 2002, which assesses progress lenio y otras metas conexas Este Exa- des objectifs specifiques qui leur sont in achieving the MDGs and outlines men complementa el Inforne anual associ6s II complete le Rapport an- programs aimed at increasing the deldesempefiodeclacarterade2002, nuel 2002 de la performance du Bank's results orientation for poverty preparado por el Grupo de garantia portefeuille du Groupe d'assurance reduction; and the forthcommg World de caliclad, cuyos temas principales de la qualit6, dans lequel la pauvrete Development Report 2004, Making son la pobreza y los objetivos de de- et les ODM occupent une place par- Services Workforthe Poor, which ex- sarrollo del milenio; el Annual Pro- ticuliere, leAnnual Progress Report amines how countries can accelerate gress Report on Poverty Reduction on Poverty Reduction 2002 de la progress toward the MDGs. 2002, en el que el Banco evalia los Banque, qui evalue les progres rea- This is OED's sixth Annual Re- progresos obtenidos en la consecu- lis6s dans la direction des ODM et view of Development Effectiveness ci6n de estos objetivos y bosqueja brosse les grandes lignes des pro- Vll 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS (ARDE) The 1999 Annual Re- programas encaminados a lo- grammes concus pour ren- _ view looked at the challenges i grar resultados concretos en forcer la politique des resul- of implementing the Com- su lucha contra la pobreza, y - tats dans les op6rations axees prehensive Development 3 el Informe sobre el desarro- sur la reduction de la pau- Framework and identified llo mundial 2004, sobre los 3 vrete , et le Rapport sur le promising practices for deal- serviclos y los pobres, donde deve1oppement dans le ing with them The 2000 An- se examinan los medios por monde 2004, intitule " Ma- nual Review concluded that los cuales los paises pueden king services work for the the Bank could implement its strate- acelerar el cumplimiento de aque- poor ,,, qui examine comment les gies more effectively by judicious llos objetivos. pays peuvent accelerer les progres en adaptation to diverse institutional Este es el sexto Enxamen anual direction des ODM. and social environments as well as by de la eficacza en terminos de desa- Ceci est la sixieme edition de acknowledging and managing dif- rrollo que efectia el DEO. En el Exa- I'Fxamen annuel de l'efficacite du ferences between client and Bank men de 1999 se analizaron los d6veloppement (ARDE) L'examen priorLites. The 2001 Annual Review desafios que representaba la aplica- de 1999 passait en revue les pro- explored how the choice of lending ci6n del Marco Integral de Desarro- blemes poses par la mise en ceuvre and nonlending instruments affects llo y se identificaron las pnicticas mas du Cadre de developpement int&- the achievement of development prometedoras para superarlos. En el gre et identifiait les pratiques qui objectives. de 2000 se concluy6 que el Banco paraissaient offnr de bonnes chances The findings of this year's Annual podria aplicar sus estrategias con de les resoudre L'examen de 2000 Review indicate that the Bank's coun- mayor eficacia si se adaptaba pru- concluait que la Banque pourrait try, sector, and global programs are dentemente a las distintas situaciones etre plus efficace dans l'ex6cution de consistent with the MDG themes. institucionales y sociales, y reconocia ses strategies si elle les adaptait de They have increasingly focused on y resolvia las diferencias entre las fagon judicieuse aux divers contextes poverty reduction. This focus can be prioridades de los clientes y del institutionnels et sociaux, et si elle greatly sharpened by defining quan- Banco En el Examen de 2001 se es- savait reconnaitre et gerer les diff6- tified and time-bound targets for tudi6 la incidencia de la elecci6n de rences entre ses priorit6s et celles poverty reduction and other rele- instrumentos crediticios y de otra in- des pays clients L'examen de 2001 vant development outcomes and im- dole en el logro de los objetivos de montrait comment le choix des ins- plementing strategies to achieve desarrollo. truments de prets et des services them. The Bank's sector programs, Las conclusiones del Examen del hors prets influe sur la r6alisation which include the MDG themes to- presente anio indican que los pro- des objectifs de developpement gether with other sector goals and gramas nacionales, sectoriales y Les conclusions du present exa- targets in a broader development mundiales del Banco son coherentes men indiquent que les programmes framework, can help improve coun- con los temas vinculados a los obje- nationaux, sectonels et mondiaux de try programs by also providing guid- tivos de desarrollo del milenio y se la Banque s'inscrivent dans la philo- ance for groups of countries on how ocupan cada vez mas de la reduc- sophie des ODM Ils font une place to address the tensions and tradeoffs ci6n de la pobreza. Podran centrarse de plus en plus importante a la lutte between the broad approach of the mucho mas en esta cuesti6n si se es- contre la pauvrete. La Banque pour- sector strategies and the MDGs' tablecen metas mensurables en ma- rait focalhser bien plus ses efforts sur specificity The Bank's global pro- teria de reducci6n de la pobreza y ce probl6me si elle etablissait des ob- grams offer untapped potential to otros temas de desarrollo pertinen- jectifs quantifies et assortis capitalize on the comparative ad- tes, y se fijan plazos e implementan d'echeances precises dans ce do- vantage of individual partners and estrategias para alcanzarlas. Los pro- maine ainsi que pour d'autres as- to complement country-level activi- gramas sectoriales del Banco, que pects pertinents du developpement, ties in support of the MDGs. inscriben los objetivos de desarrollo et si elle elaborait des strategies pour The findings suggest several areas del milenio junto con otras metas atteindre ces objectifs Les pro- for increased emphasis, some of sectoriales en un marco mas amplio grammes sectonels de la Banque, qui Vill FOREWORD which are already receiving de clesarrollo, tambi6n pue- incluent les themes des ODM J greater Bank attention. In- den contribuir a mejorar los ainsi que divers autres objec- tensified effort is needed to ,S programas para paises orien- tifs generaux et specifiques help clients identify relevant 3 tando a los grupos de paises entrant dans un plan de de- development outcomes and sobre la forma de abordar las veloppement plus large, peu- corresponding intermediate tensiones y las soluciones de - vent contribuer a am6liorer indicators and to strengthen compromiso entre la ampli- les programmes au niveau des their capacity and incentives tud de las estrategias secto- pays en montrant a certains to monitor and evaluate develop- riales y la especificidad de aquellos groupes cle pays comment traiter les ment outcomes The Bank must objetivos Los programas mundiales tensions et les arbitrages entre l'ap- move from r ecognizing the multi- del Banco ofrecen la posibilidad, de- proche g6n6rale des strategies sec- sectoral determinants of develop- saprovechada hasta el momento, de torielles et la sp6cificit6 des ODM ment outcomes to developing and sacar partido de la ventaja compara- Les programmes mondiaux de la implementing cross-sectoral strate- tiva de cada uno de los asociados y Banque offrent la possibilit6, encore gies And the Bank must further clar- complementar las actividades l]evadas inexploitee, de tirer parti de l'avan- ify its role and objectives and those a cabo en los distintos paises para tage comparatif des divers partenaires of other partners Above all, the contribuir a alcanzar los objetivos de en presence et de completer les ac- Bank needs to more fully assess the desarrollo del millenio. tivites menees au niveau des pays implications at the corporate, coun- En las conclusiones se senialan va- pour promouvoir les ODM try, sector, and global levels of the rios temas en los que se debe insistir, Les conclusions de l'examen indi- MDGs and address these implica- aunque el Banco ya esta dedicando quent qu'il faut faire une place plus tions in its use of lending and ad- atenci6n especial a algunos de ellos large a plusieurs domaines, dont cer- ministrative resources Es preciso redoblar los esfuerzos para tains font deja l'objet d'une attention ayudar a los clientes a identificar los particuliere de la Banque II faut re- resultados de las actividades de de- doubler d'efforts pour aider les pays sarrollo pertinentes y los indlicado- clients a identifier les resultats sou- res intermedios correspondientes y a haitables au plan du d6veloppement fortalecer su capacidad e incentivos et les indicateurs interrnidiaires cor- para supervisar y evaluar dichos re- respondants, et pour renforcer leurs sultados. El Banco ha reconocido los capacit6s et incitations a suivre et eva- factores multisectoriales que deter- luer les resultats au plan du develop- minan los resultaclos en materia de pement La Banque ne doit pas se desarrollo, debe dedicarse ahora a contenter d'identifier les d6terminants disefiar y aplicar estrategias intersec- du developpement, elle doit mainte- tonales. Debe esclarecer, asimismo, su nant elaborer et mettre en ocuvre des funci6n y sus objetivos, asi como los strategies multisectorielles. Elle doit de sus asociados. Por sobre todas las aussi pr6ciser son r6le et ses objectifs, cosas, es necesario que el Banco eva- ainsi que ceux de ses partenaires Elle l(ie mais cabalmente las repercusiones doit surtout evaluer ce qu'impliquent de los objetivos de desarrollo del mi- les ODM au niveau de l'institutmon, lenio en los planos institucional, na- des pays, des secteurs et du monde, cional, sectorial y mundial, y las tome et gerer l'utlisation cle ses pr&ts et de en cuenta al utilizar sus recursos cre- ses moyens administratifs en fonction diticios y administrativos des resultats de cette evaluation. Gregory K Ingram Director-General, Operations Evaluation Ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE RESUMEN RESUME * ~ SUMMARY ANALYIQUE The Millennium Development Los objetivos de desarrollo del Les Objectifs de developpe- Goals (MDGs) are a set of goals, tar- milenio (ODM) son un conjunto de ment pour le millenaire (ODM) sont un gets, and performance indicators re- metas, objetivos e indicadores de de- ensemble d'objectifs generaux et sp6- lating to poverty reduction, including sempeino vinculados con la reducci6n cifiques et d'indicateurs de perfor- income and non-income measures of de la pobreza, que miden el bienestar mance lies a la reduction de la well-being. Adopted by all 189 United en funcion del ingreso y de otros pa- pauvrete et notamment a la mesure du Nations member states in the 2000 Mil- rametros. Aprobados por los 189 Esta- revenu et d'autres elements du lennium Declaration, they represent dos miembros de las Naciones Unidas bien-etre. Adoptes par les 189 Etats an unprecedented agreement among en la Declaraci6n del Milenio del ano membres des Nations Unies dans la the development community about key 2000, representan un acuerdo sin pre- Declaration du Millenaire, ils ont sus- development outcomes. The Bank has cedentes de la comunidad interesada cite au sein de la communaute du de- endorsed the MDGs. The Bank's cor- en el desarrollo acerca de los resul- veloppement un consensus sans porate strategy aligns Bank Group ef- tados fundamentales que procura ob- precedent au suiet des resultats es- forts with the MDGs and provides an tener en materia de desarrollo. El sentiels du developpement. La Banque overall framework for addressing them. Banco ha hecho suyos esos objetivos; souscrit aux ODM. La strategie insti- su estrategia institucional apunta a tutionnelle du Groupe de la Banque The MOGs as a Benchmark for coordinar con ellos los esfuerzos del est de centrer ses efforts sur les ODM Development Effectiveness Grupo del Banco y proporciona un et de proposer un plan d'action pour at- The themes and issues embedded in marco global para abordarlos. teindre ces objectifs. the MDGs are not new for the Bank. The first of the MDGs, poverty re- Los objetivos de desarrollo del Les ODM en tant que critere de duction, has been the Bank's over- milenio como indicadores de I'efficacite du developpement arching objective since 1990. The referencia de la eficacia de Les themes couverts par les ODM et focus on education and health has las actividades de desarrollo les problemes qu'ils soulevent ne been a main tenet of the basic needs Los temas y problemas a los que se sont pas nouveaux pour la Banque approach followed by the Bank since refieren los objetivos de desarrollo Le recul de la pauvrete, qui est le pre- the early 1970s Similarly, gender del milenio no son nuevos para el mier des ODM, est l'objectif pri- and environmental sustainability Banco El primero de estos objeti- mordial que s'est fixe la Banque have been important components vos, la reducci6n de la pobreza, es el depuis 1990. La place fondamentale of the Bank's strategy since the prop6sito primordial del Banco de l'education et de la sante est l'un 1990s. desde 1990. El derecho a la educacion des principes de base de l'approche The newness of the MDGs lies in y la salud es uno de los principales ax6e sur les besoins essentiels que three main dimensions. First, by in- postulados del criterio sustentado la Banque poursuit depuis le debut corporating quantitative and time- por el Banco en lo concerniente a des annees 70 De meme, la dliscri- bound targets, the MDGs demand las necesidades bAsicas desde co- mination entre les sexes et la viabi- specificity in development actions mienzos de los anios setenta. Del lhte ecologique sont des elements and emphasize systematic meas- mismo modo, ya en el decenio de importants de la strategie de la urement Second, by defining the 1990 el papel de la mujer y la soste- Banque depuis les annees 90 goals in terms of outcomes-as dis- nibilidad ambiental eran componen- La nouveaute des ODM reside ttnct from inputs and outputs-the tes importantes de la estrategia del dans trois dimensions essentielles. MDGs draw attention to the multi- Banco Premierement, du fait qu'dls sont as- XI 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS sectoral determinants of out- Lo novedoso de los oble- sortis d'objectifs quantitatifs ,= comes. Third, by including 4 tivos de desarrollo del milenio et lies a des echeances pre- goal 8, which aims at devel- radicafundamentalmente en S cises, les ODM n6cessitent oping a global partnership 3 tres aspectos. En primer ter- des actions de developpe- for development, the MDGs mino, al incorporar metas j ment sp6cifiques et ils ap- emphasize the role of both cuantitativas, con plazos con- pellent des mesures developed and developing cretos, los objetivos exigen systematiques Deuxieme- countries These new ele- especificidad en las medidas ment, du fait qu'ils d6finis- ments may warrant changes and in- adoptadas para favorecer el desarro- sent les objectifs generaux en termes novations in some Bank practices llo y hacen hincapi6 en la medici6n de resultats - et non pas en termes and programs sistematica En segundo lugar, con d'apports et de production -, les The MDGs serve as a visionary la definici6n de las metas en trminos ODM attirent l'attention sur les de- challenge to help galvanize new en- de resultados -y no de insumos y terminants multisectoriels des r6- ergies ancl resources for the devel- productos- se ha puesto el acento sultats. Troisiemement, clu fait qu'ils opment agenda, with a focus on en los determinantes multisector-ia- incluent le huiti4me objectifg6n6ral, outcomes. At the same time, the les de los resultados. Tercero, al in- qui est de mettre en place un par- adoption of the MDGs entails risks cluir el Objetivo 8, que se refiere a la tenariat mondial pour le develop- and challenges for the World Bank. promoci6n cle una alianza mundial pement, les ODM mettent en relief Since it is clear that, given current para el desarrollo, se ha puesto de re- le role des pays developpes et des trends of pi-ogress, many countries lieve tanto la funci6n de los paises pays en developpement Ces nou- and regions will be unable to achieve clesarrollados como la de los paises veaux elements peuvent justifier des the MDGs by 2015, the risk of disap- en desarrollo. Estos nuevos elemen- changements et des innovations pointment and cynicism must be mit- tos pueden requeri- cambios e in- dans certaines pratiques et certains igated And there are other novaciones en algunos programas y programmes de la Banque challenges CustomizmgtheMDGsto pricticas del Banco. Les ODM constituent une ga- local conditions, ensuring that the Los ODM pueden servir de inspi- geure visionnaire, gageure qui per- contnbutions of sectors without an raci6nyacicateparareunirnuevosre- met de galvaniser de nouvelles explicit MDG goal or target are not cuisos y energia y destinarlos a energies et de mobiliser de nou- neglected, focusing on outcomes impulsar el desarrollo, prestando velles ressources pour le programme among poor countries and popula- atenci6n especial a los resultados Al de developpement axe sur les re- tion groups rather than just on aver- mismo tiempo, para el Banco Mun- sultats En meme temps, I'acloption age outcomes, identifying the i-esults dial la adopci6n de los objetivos en- des ODM signifie que la Banque doit chain and monitoring appropriate trania riesgos y desafios. Es eviclente etre prete a assumer des risques et intermeciate indicators, and ad- que, a juzgar por los progresos rea- a relever un certain nombre de defis dressing incentives for achieving out- lizados hasta el momento, muchos Puisqu't est evident, compte tenu du comes and for monitoring them. paises y regiones no lograran alcan- bilan actuel de l'action engagee sur The main aim of this Annual Re- zar los ODM para 2015; por ello se ce front, qu'un grand nombre de view is to assess, using recent eval- debe disipar el peligro de caer en la pays et de regions ne seront pas en uation evidence, how the World desilusi6n y el cinismo Se presentan mesure d'atteindre les ODM d'ici a Bank's country, sector, and global tambi6n otros desafios adaptar los 2015, il est indispensable d'attenuer programs are helping clients work ODM a las condiciones locales, no les risques de d6sillusion et de cy- toward the MDGs and other rele- soslayar las contribuciones de secto- nisme. Et il faut surmonter d'autres vant targets Even though the Bank res para los cuales no se ha fijado ex- difficult6s: il faut adapter les ODM is working in partnership with other plicitamente un objetivo, tomar aux r6alit6s locales, et s'assurer que donors and cannot alone be held particularmente en cuenta los resul- les contributions que peuvent ap- accountable for achieving the MDGs, tados obteniclos enti-e los paises y porter les secteurs pour lesquels it is still important for the Bank to los grupos de poblaci6n pobres en aucun objectifg6n6ral ou sp6cifique consicder how effectively its assis- lugar de considerar los resultados n'a ete fixe ne sont pas n6glig6es Xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY tance is contributing to promedio, identificar la ca- il faut centrer lattention sur progress toward the agreed dena de resultados y efectuar les r6sultats des pays pauvres * ;4 on goals el seguimiento de los indica- et des groupes de popula- dores intermedios apropia- i ton d6munis et non pas seu- * Findings about the z dos, y establecer incentivos 9 lement sur la moyenne des Bank's Programs . para alcanzar y supei-vlsar los resultats, identifier la chaine The Bank's country, sector, resultados des resultats et assurer le and global programs are con- El presente Examen tiene suivi des indlicateurs inter- sistent with the MDG themes, and como finaliclad principal analizar, uti- m6diaires; et il faut instituer un sys- there has been continuity in the lizando informaci6n obtenida en eva- teme cl'incitations pour atteindre Bank's support for them. The MDGs luaciones recientes, la ayuda que los les resultats souhait6s et en assurer emphasize income as well as nonin- programas nacionales, sectoriales y le suivi. come measures of well-being and mundiales del Banco Munclial prestan Le principal objectif de cet exa- draw attention to their multiple cle- a sus clientes para avanzar hacia la men est d'analyser, sur la base des terminants The Bank's World De- consecuci6n de los objetivos de de- elements d'appr6ciation disponibles, velopment Report (WDR) for 2000-01 sarrollo del milenio y otras metas la facon clont les programmes d'as- echoes this in its emphasis on the pertinentes Aun cuando el Banco sistance de la Banque aux niveaux qualitative dimensions of poverty trabaja junto con otros donantes y la national, sectoriel et mondial aident and, more specifically, the empow- responsabilidad de cumplir con los les pays clients a progresser dans la erment of the poor. Both encompass ODM no recae exclusivamente en direction des ODM et des objectifs a broad approach to poverty reduc- el, para el Banco es importante de- sp6cifiques qui leur sont associes tion and signal the need for a mLx of terminar el graclo cle eficacia de su Meme si la Banque travaille en par- mutually reinforcing interventions in asistencia como meclio de contribuir tenariat avec d'autres bailleurs de a variety of sectors. al logro de los objetivos acordados fonds et ne peut etre tenue pour At the project level, the outcomes settle responsable des resultats ob- of Bank-financed projects continue Conclusiones acerca de los tenus sur le front des ODM, il n'en to improve Of the projects that exited programas del Banco est pas momns important qu'elle fasse in FYO1, 77 percent had satisfactoty Los programas del Banco para paises le point pour determiner dans quelle outcomes, exceeding for a second y sectores, asi como los de alcance mesure l'aicle qu'elle apporte per- year the 1997 Strategic Compact tar- mundial, son congruentes con los met aux pays de progresser dans la get of 75 percent, as shown in the fig- temas de los objetivos de desarrollo direction des objectifs dtablis d'un ure More than two-thirds of projects del milenio, a los que el Banco ha commun accord. prestado un respaldo constante Los ODM subrayan la importancia de Conclusions concernant les medir el bienestar no s6lo en funci6n programmes de la Banque * d u n C l 11 cle los ingresos y dedican especial Les programmes d'assistance de la -t i s n __..; J1 atenci6n a la multiplicidacl de facto- Banque aux niveaux national, sec- Percentsatisfactoryoutcoe _res que lo determinan El Inforine toriel et mondial sont coherents avec Percent sabisfactory outcome 100.- ,. . ..... sobre el desarrollo mundial les themes des ODM, et la Banque lb - 2000/2001, preparado por el Banco, n'a cesse cle les soutenir Les ODM 80 - ----- ----- --- ... se hace eco cle este concepto al hacer mettent l'accent sur la mesure du re- 60 . . hincapi6 en los aspectos cualitativos venu et d'autres elements du de la pobreza y, mas concretamente, bien-etre, et ils font ressortir la mul- 40 - - - - - - - - -. . . . . 4Byproject en el empoderamiento de los po- tiplicit6 des d6terminants de ces dif- Weighted by disbursement 20 , I , I . , I . I , . . bres. Ambos factores forman parte de ferentes variables Le Rapport stir FY90 FY93 FY96 FY99 FY02 un enfoque amplio de la reducci6n le developpement dans le inonde *Partial de la pobreza y sefialan la necesidad 2000-2001 s'en fait l'echo en insis- Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 Soure_Bsinss_W_ehuse_Word_Bnk_002 de poner en marcha, en distintos sec- tant sur les climensions qualitatives xii' 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS were rated as likely or highly I tores, intervenciones que se de la pauvrete et plus pr6ci- J lIkely to be resilient to future . refuercen reciprocamente sement sur la n6cessit6 de risk, and about one-half were En cuanto a los proyectos, donner aux pauvres les rated as having a substantial 3 los resultados de aquellos fi- moyens de se prendre en or higher institutional devel- nanciados por el Banco con- charge. Dans les deux cas, opment impact in FY01 The tintman mejorando De los 'lapproche globale retenue Appendix provides detailed re- proyectos que dejaron la car- en matiere de lutte contre la sults on project performance. tera en el ejercicio de 2001, el pauvrete implique une com- This solid performance at the in- 77% obtuvo resultados satisfactonos. binaison d'interventions qui se ren- dividual project level must be sus- se super6 asi por segundo afno la forcent mutuellement dans des tamed, and the Bank must scale up meta del 75% fijada en el Plan Estra- secteurs divers. the impact to help clients achieve t6gico, como se observa en el grafico. Au niveau des projets, les resultats country-level improvements in eco- En el mismo ejerciclo, se conside- des operations financees par la nomic well-being, human develop- raba como probable o muy proba- Banque continuent de s'am6liorer. ment, environmental sustainability, ble que mas de dos tercios de los Sur les projets sortis du portefeuille and other relevant development out- proyectos pudieran superar futuros au cours de l'exercice 01, 77 % comes. The MDGs offer the poten- riesgos, y que aproximadamente la avaient des r6sultats satisfaisants, tial-backed byinternational support mitad influiria, por lo menos, de depassant ainsi pour la deuxieme and common understanding-for the forma considerable en el desarrollo annee consecutive l'objectif de 75 % Bank to sharpen its focus on such institucional En el Ap6ndice se su- du Pacte strat6gique ainsi que le outcomes ministra informaci6n detallacla sobre montre la figure ci-contre. Plus des In the past few years, the objec- el desempefno de los proyectos deux tiers etaient juges comme ayant tives and strategies of the Bank's Es preciso mantener la solidez del de bonnes chances ou de fortes country assistance programs have comportamiento de los proyectos e chances de resister a des risques fu- increasingly focused on poverty re- intensificar el efecto de las activida- turs, et a peu pres la moiti6 etaient duction. However, most are ex- des del Banco para poder ayudar a los jug6s comme ayant un impact sub- pressed in terms of directions of clientes a impulsar el bienestar eco- stantiel ou plus que substantiel sur change rather than achieving spe- n6mico, el desarrollo humano y la le developpement institutionnel cific targets Poverty Reduction Strat- sostenibilidad ambiental nacionales, pendant l'exercice 01. Lannexe pre- egy Papers (PRSPs), in contrast, asi como a obtener otros resultados provide a clearer set of targets, al- though the realism and achievability ®; O- of the targets can be improved. The Bank needs to define the objectives 1 j 0 La@ c a 2 and targets of its countr-y programs with greater specificity, deriving ..J 0c b sl - - , these from national targets estab- --. lashed by countries in light of global Porcentale de resultados satisfactorios Pourcentage de resultats satisfaisants MDG goals and using the PRSP .100- . -- where applicable Better analytical 80- .o . . 80 . . work, including stronger poverty 60 . 60 analysis and development of out- come-onented strategies, would also 40 - -or p;oyecto 40 . . .p; --e . contribute positively to the quality of - Ponderado por desembolso - Pondere en foncoon des d6caissements 20 . ..I. 20 I , the Bank's country programs. El de Ei de Ej de El de El de Ex 90 Ex 93 Ex 96 Ex 99 Ex 02 Sector strategies show increasing 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002' attention to poverty linkages, a Parcl ' Partl change from eFuente Business Warehouse. Banco Mundial 2002 Source Business Warehouse, Banque mondial 2002 change from earlier strategies n XIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY which such linkages were not pertinentes en materia de de- sente un bilan d6taillM de la always explicit. While the sarrollo Los ODM brindan al performance des projets Bank has a strong record of , Banco la posibilidad de con- Cette robuste perfor- project performance in many centrarse aun mas en esos re- rmance au niveau des projets sectors, the weaker record in sultados, con el respaldo doit etre maintenue, et la a few sectors will require internacional y la compren- Banque doit viser un plus added attention. The Bank's si6n general de su naturaleza. haut niveau d'impact pour sector strategies are consis- En los iltimos afios, los ob- aider les pays clients a ame- tent with the MDGs and rightly place jetivos y las estrategias de los pro- liorer leurs resultats au tnple plan du them alongside other sector goals gramas de asistencia del Banco a los bien-etre economique, du develop- in a broader development frame- paises se han centrado en forma cre- pement humain et de la viabilit6 work Sector strategies have the po- ciente en la reducci6n de la pobreza. &cologique et dans d'autres do- tential to contribute more effectively Sin embargo, generalmente se ex- maines pertinents du developpe- to the Bank's country strategies in presaron en relaci6n con la onenta- ment. Les ODM offrent a la Banque two ways. First, they should provide ci6n de los cambios que se procuraba la possibilit6 - confort6e par le sou- guidance on how countries at dif- lograr y no como metas especlficas tien et la comprehension de la com- ferent income levels can prioritize Los documentos de estrategia de munaute internationale - de specific sectors, subsectors, regions, lucha contra la pobreza (DELP), por centrer davantage son action sur ces or population groups Second, they el contrario, establecen una serie de resultats should exploit cross-sectoral com- metas mas claras, aunque su realismo Depuis quelques annees, la pau- plementarities and provide guidance y factibilidad podrian mejorarse El vrete occupe une place grandissante on designing and implementing out- Banco debe definir los objetivos y las dans les objectifs et les strategies come-oriented strategies Although metas de sus programas para los pa- des programmes d'assistance de la truly integrated policy action can ises con mayor especificidad, den- Banque aux pays Toutefois, ces ob- emerge only in national policy fo- vandolos de las metas nacionales jectifs et ces strategies sont habi- rums, greater creativity in Bank establecidas por los paises a la luz tuellement d6finis en termes sector programs in maximizing com- de los ODM y utilizando los DELP d'orientation des r6formes plut6t plementarities would further en- cuando corresponda La calidad de qu'en termes de resultats sp6ci- hance their relevance to the los programas del Banco para los dis- fiques. Les Documents de strat6gie MDGs-and to the country strate- tintos palses tambi6n se veria bene- pour la r6duction de la pauvrete gies seeking to achieve them ficiada si se mejoraran los estudios (DSRP) fournissent au contraire un Special funding initiatives related analiticos, en particular el anallsis de ensemble plus clair d'objectifs, mais to the MDGs-for example, the Ed- la pobreza, y se formularan estrategias ils sont parfois irr6alistes et difficiles ucation Fast Track Program or the orientadas a obtener resultados con- a atteindre, et des progres sont pos- Africa Multisectoral AIDS Program- cretos. sibles sur ce point La Banque doit could entail allocation or reallocation Las estrategias sectonales prestan d6finir plus precisement les objectifs of lending resources. Such alloca- cada vez mas atenci6n a los vinculos generaux et sp6cifiques de ses pro- tions should take account of each con la pobreza, que antenormente no grammes-pays, a partir des objectifs country's likelihood of using the siempre se presentaban en forma ex- nationaux etablis par les pays a la funds effectively, as well as its dis- plicita. Aunque el desempefno de los lumiere des ODM, et en se basant le tance from the MDGs. Any implica- proyectos del Banco es muy satis- cas echeant sur les donnees des Do- tions for the Bank's geographic and factorio en numerosos sectores, sera cuments cle strat6gie pour la reduc- sectoral allocation of resources re- necesario prestar mayor atencion a tion de la pauvrete Un meilleur sulting from such initiatives should los pocos sectores donde los resul- travail d'analyse et, en particulier, be systematically assessed and trade- tados fueron deficientes. Las estra- une analyse plus solide de la pau- offs carefully considered. Finally, tegias sectoriales del Banco son vrete et 1'61aboration de strategies achieving and sustaining MDG out- coherentes con los ODM y, acerta- axees sur les resultats du develop- comes will require significant addi- damente, los inscriben, junto con pement permettraient aussi d'ame- xv 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS tional recurrent financing, for otros objetivos sectonales, en liorer la qualite des pro- J which provision needs to be un marco de desarrollo mas grammes au niveau des pays made ,_ amplio. Asimismo, pueden Les strategies sectorielles The realization that Inany 3 contribuir mAs eficazmente a montrent qu'une attention development problems re- i las estrategias del Banco para croissante est portee aux liens quire collective action at the los paises de dos maneras En - des op6rations avec la pau- global level to supplement tra- primer lugar, deberian brin- vrete, contrairement aux stra- ditional country- and project- clarorientaci6n sobre la forma t6gies anterieures, ou ces level approaches has led to increasing en que los paises, en los diferentes ni- liens n'6taient pas toujours expli- Bank support for global programs veles de ingreso, pueden establecer cites. La Banque affiche un bilan so- All global programs broadly support un orden de prioridad entre deter- lide pour ce qui est de la MDG goal 8-"Developing a global minados sectores, subsectores, re- performance des projets dans de partnership for development"-and giones o grupos de poblaci6n En nombreux secteurs, mais il faudra many also support other MDGs Few segundo trmino, deberian aprove- suivre de plus pres le petit groupe de of the global programs yet involve char los aspectos intersectoriales secteurs qui font apparaitre des re- developing countries, civil society or- complementanos y establecer pautas sultats moms satisfaisants. Les stra- ganizations, or the commercial pri- sobre el disenlo y la ejecuci6n de es- t6gles sectorielles de la Banque sont vate sector in the governance and trategias orientadas a la obtencian coherentes avec les ODM et les pla- management of the programs. And de resultados. Aun cuando las medi- cent a juste titre aux c6tes d'autres few focus on global public policy for- das de politica aut6nticamente inte- objectifs dans un plan d'action plus mulation involving developed coun- gradas s6lo pueden surgir de foros de large en faveur du developpement. try policies, in the spint of MDG goal politica nacionales, una mayor crea- Les strat6gies sectorielles peuvent 8 While global programs have been tividad en los programas sectoriales apporter, sur un double plan, une effective instruments of resource mo- del Banco para aprovechar al ma- contribution plus efficace aux stra- bilization, the proliferation of global ximo los aspectos complementarios tegies d'assistance aux pays mises initiatives has exceeded the Bank's in- aumentaria la pertinencia de esos en place par la Banque Premiere- stitutional capacity to manage and programas para los ODM y las estra- ment, elles devraient fournir des in- monitor them effectively Global pro- teglas nacionales concebidas a fin de dications sur la facon dont les pays grams as a group are no better than alcanzarlos. qui ont diff6rents niveaux de revenus other development efforts at moni- Las iniciativas de financiamiento peuvent etablir l'ordre de priorit6 toring and evaluating the outcomes especiales vinculadas a los ODM, de secteurs, sous-secteurs, regions and impacts of their activities Capi- como la Via Rapida de Educaci6n ou groupes de population particu- talizing on the comparative advan- para Todos o el Programa Multisec- Ihers. Deuxiemement, elles devraient tage of individual partners, better torial contra el SIDA para Africa, pue- exploiter les complementanites sous- linking global programs with related den requerir la asignaci6n o la sectonelles et fournir des indications countiy-level activities, and situating reasignaci6n de recursos financieros sur la conception et la mise en ceuvre them within the framework of a larger Para ello se debe tomar en cuenta la des strategies axees sur les resultats. global strategy would help strengthen probabilidad de cada pais de utilizar Certes, une action gouvernementale outcomes los fondos con eficacia, asi como el veitablement int6gr6e ne peut etre camino quele falta recorrer para al- que le fruit d'un debat national, mais Implications for the Future canzar los ODM. Deben estudiarse si la Banque faisait preuve de plus By specifying quantitative targets, cuidaclosamente todas las conse- d'imagination dans ses programmes the MDGs emphasize systematic cuencias de esas iniciativas en la dis- sectoriels en s'attachant a maxmmiser measurement-ancl the Bank has tribucl6n geografica y sectorial de les complementarites, le contenu de launched new initiatives to better recursos del Banco, asi como las so- ces programmes pourrait etre en- monitor, measure, and manage for luciones de compromiso que pudie- core mieux adapte aux ODM - et results While these initiatives can- ran implicar Por iltimo, para alcanzar aux strategies nationales elaborees not be expected to bear fruit either y mantener los ODM se necesitarAn pour atteindre ces objectifs xvI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY swiftly or easily, they will be importantes volumenes adi- Les programmes de fi- suparticularly helpful if they re- . pnales de financcampento e nancement spquea l'nhts aux isult m clearer and more spe- ci pnal6dco y sera preciso efec- cODMe-tels que l'Intsatuve - cific objectives and targets tuar las reservas del caso q pour l'acc6l6ration de l'aide at the country, sector, and La convicci6n de que la so- 3 en faveur de l'6ducation ou le global levels Clients' capac- luci6n de muchos problemas , Programme plurinational de ity and incentives to monitor de desarrollo exige medidas I lutte contre le VLH/SIDA en and evaluate development colectivas a nivel mundial que Afrique - pourralent don- outcomes also need significant complementen los enfoques tradi- ner lieu i l'octroi de nouveaux prets strengthening. Serious effort is also cionales centrados en los paises y los ou a la reaffectation des fonds pre- needed to identify intermediate in- proyectos ha empujado al Banco a tes Ces op6rations devront tenir dicators for measuring progress on aumentar su apoyo a los programas compte de la probabilit6 qu'a un the ground and to monitor the mundiales En lineas generales, todos pays d'utiliser les fonds de fac,on ef- progress of Bank assistance. This is los programas mundiales contribuyen ficace ainsi que des progres qu'il a especially the case because the a la consecuci6n del Objetivo 8 ("Pro- accomplis en direction des ODM Bank's instruments have a shorter mover una alianza mundial para el Les consequences que pourraient timeframe than the 15-year horizon desarrollo") y muchos coadyuvan avoir ces initiatives sur la r6parti- set for achieving most MDGs tambien al logro de otros de los ob- tion g6ographique et sectorielle des Lessons can be learned in failure as jetivos Sin embargo, los paises en ressources de la Banque devront well as success. The monitoring desarrollo, las organizaciones de la so- etre syst6matiquement evaluees, et process should be designed to yield ciedad civil o el sector privado co- les arbitrages devront faire l'objet information that provides a sound mercial intervienen en la direcci6n y d'un examen approfondi. Enfin, and continuing basis for informed administraci6n de muy pocos pro- pour atteindre les ODM et les ins- decisionmaking and learning gramas mundiales, y tambi6n son crire dans la duree, il faudra pr6voir The MDGs draw attention to pocos los programas que se ocupan d'importantes ressources supple- the multisectoral determinants of de la formulaci6n de politicas p6bli- mentaires pour financer les de- outcomes The Bank's programs in- cas mundiales que afecten las politi- penses recurrentes, et donc prendre creasingly recognize these inter-re- cas de los paises desarrollados, como des dispositions en ce sens lationships; they now need to take podria ocurrir en consonancia con el La reconnaissance du fait qu'un the next step and develop and im- espfritu del Objetivo 8. Si bien los grand nombre de problemes de de- plement cross-sectoral strategies to programas mundiales han resultado veloppement exigent une action col- help clients achieve intended out- efectivos para movilizar recursos, la lective au niveau international pour comes. Multisectoral strategies do proliferaci6n de iniciativas mundiales completer les approches tradition- not necessarily imply multisector ha superado la capacidad instituclo- nelles centr6es sur les pays et les prolects Developing multisectoral naldelBancoparaadministrarlasysu- projets a conduit la Banque a ac- strategieswillrequireeffectivecoor- pervisarlas eficazmente Los croitre le soutien qu'elle apporte dination between the Bank's country programas mundiales, como grupo, aux programmes de portee mon- and sector units and among sector no son mejores que otros programas diale Tous ces programmes ap- units to design and implement out- de desarrollo para supervisar y eva- puient de facon generale le huiti&me come-based, cross-sectoral country luar los resultados y las repercusiones des ODM qui est de << mettre en strategies. A more effective institu- de sus actividades Se podrian obte- place un partenanat mondial pour le tional mechanism is needed to foster ner resultados mas satisfactorios developpement ,> - et beaucoup the design and implementation of aprovechando las ventajas compara- appuient aussi les autres ODM Rares cross-sectoral strategies to deliver tivas de cada asociado, vinculando sont encore les programmes de por- specific development outcomes mejor los programas mundiales con tee mondiale qui associent les pays Achieving MDG outcomes by las actividades conexas en los paises en developpement, les organisations 2015-and sustaining them beyond y situandolos en el marco de una es- de la soci&6t civile ou le secteur pnve 2015-will require a break from his- trategia mundial mas amplia. commercial A l'administration et a la XVili 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS torical trends in a number of Consecuencias para el gestion des operations Et countries "Business as usual" futuro rares sont ceux qui s'atta- is unlikely to suffice either Al especificar metas cuantz- chent a formuler une poli- for countries or donors Sign- tatwvas, los ODM ponen de tique publique mondiale ing on to global targets with- relieve la importancia de la tenant compte des politiques out determining the priority I medici6n sistematica, y el - des pays developpes dans to be attached to individual - Banco ha puesto en marcha Iesprit du huitieme des targets in specific circum- nuevas iniciativas para mejo- ODM. Les programmes sont stances or developing more feasi- rar el seguimiento, la medici6n y la certes des instruments efficaces ble alternative targets is risky for gesti6n de resultados Si bien no se pour mobiliser les ressources, mais donors and developing countries puede esperar que den fruto con ra- la proliferation des initiatives mon- alike There is also a risk that the pidez o facilidad, esas iniciativas seran diales implique une charge qui ex- MDGs will lead to the mechanical especialmente valiosas si permiten cede les capacit6s institutionnelles adoption of specific MDG indica- establecer objetivos y metas mas cIa- de la Banque pour assurer la ges- tors-or to an overemphasis on eas- ros y especificos a nivel nacional, sec- tion et le suivi de ces programmes ily monitored targets to the neglect tonal y mundial 'Tambi6n es preciso de fagon efficace Ces programmes of qualitative dimensions of devel- reforzar considerablemente los in- pris collectivement ne permettent opment The first step in better man- centivos y la capacidad de los clien- pas mieux que d'autres initiatives aging these risks and challenges tes para supervisar y evaluar los de developpement de suivre et would be to systematically assess resultados de las actividades de de- d'evaluer les resultats et l'impact and understand the implications- sarrollo. Es necesano, asimismo, iden- des actions menees. Des resultats at the corporate, country, sector, tificar indicadores intermedios para plus solides pourront etre obtenus project, and global levels-of the medir los progresos en el terreno y si des dispositions sont prises pour MDGs. A determination will then supervisar el avance de la asistencia exploiter l'avantage comparatif de have to be made about how priori- del Banco, mias que nada porque el chaque partenaire, etablir un lien ties are to be set, key choices made, marco cronol6gico de los instru- plus dtroit entre les programmes in- and any resulting tensions and mentos del Banco es mas breve que ternationaux et les activit6s menees tradeoffs addressed. More than two el plazo de 15 anios estipulado para au niveau des pays, et inscrire ces ac- years after the Bank's endorsement alcanzar los ODM. Se pueden extraer tivit6s dans le cadre d'une strat6gie of the MDGs, such efforts are only ensefianzas tanto de los fracasos globale plus large just beginning in the Bank, espe- como de los exitos. El proceso de cially at the sectoral (network) level supervisi6n debe estar destinado a Consequences a tirer pour Rising to the challenge of the MDGs obtener datos que sienten una base I'avenir will require continuity in some areas s6lida y permanente para el apren- Par le fait meme qu'ils fixent des ob- of Bank work and an increased em- dizaje y la adopci6n de decisiones jectifs quantitatifs, les ODM impli- phasis on others, and may warrant informadas. quent de faire une large place a la a departure from some current Bank Los ODM destacan el papel de los mesure systematique des resultats, practices and programs The exact determinantes multisectonales de los et la Banque a lance de nouvelles ini- nature of the necessary changes can resultados. El Banco cada vez toma tiatives pour mieux suivre, mesurer be determined only through a sys- mds en cuenta esas interrelaciones et gerer les resultats Certes, il ne tematic analysis of the implications en sus programas, ahora debe dar un faut pas esperer que ces initiatives of the MDGs at the corporate, coun- paso adelante y elaborar y aplicar es- porteront des fruits rapidement ou try, sector, and global levels As- trategias intersectoriales para ayudar facilement, mais elles seront parti- sessing and addressing these a los clientes a alcanzar los resultados culierement utiles si elles permettent implications should be a priority for previstos Las estrategias multisecto- d'etablir des objectifs generaux et the Bank riales no implican necesariamente specifiques plus clairs aux niveaux proyectos multisectoriales. Para di- national, sectoriel et international II sefiar e implementar en los paises es- faut aussi renforcer sensiblement la XVIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY trategias intersectoriales ba- capacit6 et les incitations des 4 sadas en los resultados se re- pays clients a suivre et eva- * quenra una coordinaci6n luer les resultats du deve- eficaz entre las direcciones su- i loppement Des efforts bregionales y las direcciones s6rieux seront aussi n6ces- sectoriales del Banco, asi saires pour identifier les in- como entre estas 6ltimas. Se clicateurs internidiaires necesita un mecanismo insti- permettant de mesurer les tucional mas efectivo para fomentar progr-s accomplis sur le terrain et de el diseflo y la ejecuci6n de estrate- suivre les progres de l'assistance de gias intersectoriales que produzcain re- la Banque, et ce d'autant que les ins- sultados especificos en terminos de truments de la Banque ont une desarrollo. dur6e de vie plus courte que l'hori- A fin cle alcanzar los objetivos de zon de 15 ans fixe pour la realisation desarrollo del milenio para 2015 - de la plupart des ODM. Les ensel- y mantenerlos despues- en varios gnements a tirer sont utiles, qu'll y paises sera imprescindible modificar ait echec ou succes Le processus las tendencias hist6ricas. Es probable de suivi doit etre congu de facon a que las "actividades habituales" no pouvoir recueillir des elements d'in- basten para los paises ni para los do- formation susceptibles de fournir nantes. Adherir a los objetivos mun- une base solide et permanente pour diales sin determinar la pnoridad que prendre cles decisions en toute se va a atribuir a cada uno de ellos en connaissance de cause et favoriser circunstancias concretas o idear otros I'apprentissage objetivos mas viables es igualmente Les ODM appellent lattention sur riesgoso para los donantes y los pai- les determinants multisectoriels des ses en desarrollo. Tambien se corre resultats Les program mes de la el riesgo de que los ODM deriven en Banque tiennent de plus en plus la adopci6n mecanica de indicadores compte de ces interactions; mats il especificos o en un hincapie exce- faut maintenant passer a l'etape sul- sivo en las metas que se pueden vante et elaborer les strategies in- medir con facilidad en desmedro de tersectorielles pour aider les pays los aspectos cualitativos del desa- clients a atteindre les resultats sou- rrollo El prinmer paso para hacer haites. Les strategies intersectonelles frente a estos riesgos y desafios con- n'impliquent pas necessairement sistiria en evaluar sistematicamente y des projets multisectoriels. L'elabo- comprender las consecuencias que ration de strategies multisectorielles entrafian los ODM para las institu- exigera une coordination efficace ciones, los paises, los sectores, los entre les unites de la Banque spe- proyectos y las actividades de indole cialement chargees des pays et des mundial. Habri que tomar luego una secteurs et entre les unites secto- determinacOn acerca de la forma de rnelles afin de concevoir et mettre en establecer las prioridades, adoptar ceuvre des strategies nationales in- las decisiones clave, superar las ten- tersectorielles. II faut un mecanisme siones que puedan surgir y abordar institutionnel plus efficace pour en- las soluciones de compromiso. Mas courager l'elaboration et la mise en de dos anios despues de que el Banco ceuvre de strategies intersectorielles adhiriera a los ODM, esos esfuerzos permettant d'atteindre des resultats xix 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS acaban de comenzar, espe- sp6cifiques au plan du deve- cialmente en el nivel secto- loppement. rial (redes) Para estar a la Pour atteindre les ODM altura del desafio que impli- d'ici a 2015- et pour que les can los ODM se requernna con- resultats durent au-dela de tinuidad en algunas areas de 2015 - il faudra rompre avec la labor del Banco, mayor les tendances passees dans atenci6n a otras y, quiza, la un certain nombre de pays modificaci6n de algunos programas La politique du < business as usual » y practicas actuales del Banco. La na- ne suffira sans doute pas, que l'on se turaleza exacta de los cambios nece- place du cote des pays ou du c6te sarios s6lo se podra determinar des bailleurs de fonds Souscrire a mediante un analisis sistematico de des objectifs globaux sans determi- las repercusiones de los ODM para las ner la priorit6 attachee a des instituclones, los paises, los sectores objectifs specifiques dans des cir- y el mundo Evaluar y abordar esas re- constances specifiques ou sans fixer percusiones debe ser prioritario para des objectifs plus r6alhstes est une el Banco. chose risqu6e pour les bailleurs de fonds comme pour les pays en de- veloppement. Il y a aussi le risque que les ODM conduisent a adopter m6caniquement des indicateurs spe- cifiques pour evaluer les progres ac- complis dans ce domaine - ou a accorder une importance excessive a des objectifs dont l'6volution est fa- cile a suivre au detriment des dimensions qualitatives du deve- loppement Pour mieux gerer ces risques et ces problemes, il faut d'abord cerner et evaluer syst6ma- tiquement les repercussions des ODM - au niveau del'institution, des pays, des secteurs et des projets et au niveau mondial Il faudra en- suite determiner comment etablir les priorit6s, comment operer les choix fondamentaux et comment traiter les tensions et les arbitrages eventuels Cela fait un peu plus de deux ans maintenant que la Banque a souscrit aux ODM, mais les dispo- sitions qu'elle a prises en ce sens n'en sont qu'a leurs debuts, en par- ticuller au niveau sectoriel (niveau des reseaux). Pour relever la gageure des ODM, ti faudra qu'elle poursuive son action dans certains domaines, xx EXECUTIVE SUMMARY qu'elle fasse une plus large place a d'autres domaines, ce qui n6cessltera peut-etre un changement de cap par 3 rapport a ses pratiques et a ses programmes actuels Seule une analyse systema- tique des r6percussions des ODM au niveau de l'institution, des pays et des secteurs et au niveau in- ternational permettra de d6termi- ner la nature exacte des changements a introduire L'evalua- tion de ces r6percussions et les me- sures a prendre en consequence doivent etre une priorite de la Banque xxI ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ARPP Annual Review of Portfolio Performance AFR Africa Region APL Adaptable Program Loan ARDE Annual Review of Development Effectiveness AROE Annual Report on Operations Evaluation CAE Country Assistance Evaluation CAS Country Assistance Strategy CDF Comprehensive Development Framework CEM Country Economic Memorandum CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CODE Committee on Development Effectiveness CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment DAC Development Assistance Committee DEC Development Economics and Chiief Economist (Bank department) DFID Department for International Development (U K.) EAP East Asia and Pacific Region ECA Europe and Central Asia Region ECD Evaluation capacity development EFA Education for All ERL Emergency Recovery Loan ESW Economic and sector work FY Fiscal year GDP Gross domestic product HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative HNP Health, Nutrition, and Population IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Association IDTs International Development Targets LCR Latin America and the Caribbean Region LIL Learning and Innovation Loan MAP Multisectoral AIDS Program for Africa MDGs Millennium Development Goals M&E Monitoring and evaluation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MNA Middle East and North Africa Region NGO Nongovernmental organization OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OED Operations Evaluation Department OPCS Operations Policy ancl Country Services (Bank department) PBA Performance-based allocation PER Public Expenditure Review PPAR Project Performance Assessment Report PREM Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network PRMPS Public Sector Management Division PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSI Private Sector Development and Infrastructure (Network) QAG Quality Assurance Group XXIII 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFEECTIVENESS RIL Rehabilitation Import Loan SAR South Asia Region SSP Sector Strategy Paper SWAP Sectorwide approach UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization USAID U.S Agency for International Development WBI World Bank Institute WDR World Development Report WSP Water and Sanitation Program XXIV The MDGs as a Benchmark for Development Effectiveness Together, we have set 2015 as the deadlinefor our results. We must now, together, move beyond words and set deadlines for our actions.... What must the Bank do? Focus on implementation of ourpromises to work towards the Millennium Development Goals... we must meas- ure our results more rigorously and, with others, we must be held ac- countable in the context of broader country goals and the Millennium Development Goals. -James D. Wolfensohn, Annual Meetings Speech, The World Bank, 2002 MDGs in the World Bank's Corporate focus on outcomes (as distinct from inputs Strategy and outputs), and their emphasis on the role The United Nations Millennium Declaration of both developed and developing countries in adopted by all 189 member states of the United a global partnership for development. Nations at the Millennium Summit on Sep- The MDGs evolved from the International tember 8, 2000, represents unprecedented Development Targets (IDTs), which were intro- agreement among the development community duced in 1996 and included similar quantitative to measure progress in reducing global poverty targets. The World Bank's corporate strategy has through quantitative, time-bound targets incorporated the IDTs foraboutfouryears The Under the banner of Millennium Development 1997 Strategic Compact, the Bank's corporate Goals (MDGs), the targets bring a new out- strategy for the 1997-2000 period, called for the comes focus to reducing income poverty and Bank to report regularly on a set of indicators cor- to non-income measures of well-being that in- responding closely to the IDTs. The IDTs were clude child mortality and primary education, included in the highest tier of the Corporate sanitation and safe water, gender, and slum Scorecard forthe Strategic Compact AnnexAlists improvement. While these themes are not new the MDGs, Annex B discusses the origins and evo- for the Bank, the newness of the MDGs lies in lution of the MDGs and IDTs, and Annex C com- their quantitative and time-bound targets, their pares the IDTs and the MDGs 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Two key documents producedbytheBankin box 1.1. The Bank's FY03-05 strategic docu- 2001-the Strategic Framework (World Bank ments further explain the Bank's position on 2001e) and the Strategic Directions Paper (World the MDGs (box 1.2). Bank 2001c)-outlined the Bank's corporate The Bank's mission statements and corpo- strategy for the first five years of the twenty-first rate strategy papers focused on themes and is- century. They explicitly aligned the Bank Group's sues embedded in the MDGs throughout the efforts with the MDGs and provided an overall 1990s, and even earlier. For example, the first framework to focus Bank assistance on achiev- MDG, poverty reduction, has been the Bank's ing them: "The [Strategic Framework] paper overarching objective since 1990. The focus on aligns the Bank Group's efforts with the inter- education and health has been a main tenet of national development goals, recently confirmed the Bank's basic needs approach since the early in the Millennium Declaration. The Bank Group 1970s. And gender and environmental sustain- fully endorses these goals" (World Bank 2001e, ability have been important components of the p. 1). The Strategic Directions paper noted that Bank's strategy since the 1990s. the multidimensional nature of the international These close parallels between the MDGs and development goals reflects a comprehensive ap- the Bank's corporate strategy are not coinci- proach to development. The goals provide a re- dental. For more than a decade, the evolution of sults-based framework for assessing development the Bank's mission and corporate strategy and impact and emphasize that the focus must be on the goals and declarations of successive U.N. the desired outcomes, rather than an input- conferences have been derived from a shared and based or narrow sectoral focus. The Strategic evolving understanding of development chal- Directions paper linked Bank objectives and lenges. Even the content of the latest goal added strategy to the MDGs (then still referred to as "In- to the MDG list, "Develop a global partnership ternational Development Goals") and provided for development," has been squarely at the cen- a framework for reshaping Bank assistance. It also ter of the Bank's corporate strategy since the matched MDG outcomes with the inputs and Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) competencies of the Bank, as summarized in was adopted in 1997. I 3 (D 9 910 @ )° s sZ s lJJ(S[ The lmportancq ofGrowth: Broadly based economic growth is Effective AidAllocation:By quantifying development progress, oneof thebestwaysto achieve povertyreduction,which implies the goals present an opportunity to focus on the effective- a comprehensive approach to development. ness of different interventions and, over time; to allocate na- tional, international, and the Bank's own resources more Linkages among Sectors: Meeting the goals that focus on edu- effectively. Linking these improvements to policy and other re- cation, health, gender equality, and environmentwill require ex- forms will, however, require significant research and analyt- penditures id other sectors-for example, in governance and ical effort. institution and capacity-building and in potable water, sanita- tion, and other infrastructure. Prioritization and Partnership: Even though different countries may assign different priorities to the various goals, their achieve- 1 Outcomes and the Rolo ofPedformance Monitoring:Sincethetar- ment nevertheless depends on concerted effort by numerous gets selected to measure progress toward the goals correlate global and local partners. highly with other measures of development, they serve as guides for determining economic and social progress. Source World Bank 2001c, Annex 2. p. 25. 2 THE MDGs AS A BENCHMARK FOR DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS According to recent strategic documents, the Bank's mission tivities are designed and implemented. They emphasize that continues to be poverty reduction, with the MOGs providing the Bank's implementation agenda will continue to focus on a global frame of reference for its work. The Bank's priorities achieving its mission of reducing global poverty and contribut- are further defined by the need, first, to build the climate for ing toward meeting the MDGs. investment, jobs, and sustainable growth, and, second, to in- At the same time, Bank strategists acknowledge that the vest in poor people and empower them to participate in de- Bank will need to do a better job of assessing and monitoring velopment. the results of its work and in linking the outcomes of its proj- The documents recognize that the MDGs are not just a cot- ects and programs to the internationally agreed on MDGs, in- porate commitment; they determine how country and global ac- cluding the overarching objective of povery reduction. Source: Bank's FY03-05 Strategic Documents, http://siteresources.worldbank.orgIEXTABOUTUS/Resources/workprogram.pdf MSDGs as a Framework for the ARDE ical framework). The links between inputs, out- The main purpose of this year's Annual Review puts, and outcomes should be further analyzed of Development Effectiveness (ARDE) is to as- through existing and continuing research.' sess, through available evaluation evidence, how The MDGs imply continued attention to a the World Bank's country, sector, and global pro- number of themes and sectors that are already grams are helping clients work toward the MDGs high priorities in Bank operations-for example, and other relevant targets. It is too soon to see economic growth, poverty reduction, human evidence of on-the-ground impact of the Bank's development, and environmental sustainability. adoption of the MDGs per se. But the themes em- They also imply an increased emphasis on bedded in the MDGs are not new to the Bank, and outcomes and their measurement, the multi- it is possible to assess the extent to which the sectoral determinants of outcomes, and part- Bank's assistance programs have supported them. nerships. In other areas, the MDGs may entail This review interprets the MDGs broadly as changes or innovations in current Bank prac- representing quantified development goals and tices and programs-for example, with respect targets rather than the precise percentages and to the allocation of resources across countries timeframes specified. Since the MDGs are global and sectors. targets, they must be localized to fit each coun- try's circumstances. For example, not everycoun- The Risks and Challenges try can reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds The MDGs serve as a visionary challenge to help by 2015. garner new energies and resources for the de- The concepts of partnership and country own- velopment agenda, with a focus on outcomes. ership are at the heart of the MDGs. Therefore, The 2002 United Nations Conference on Fi- the review stresses mutual accountability. Even nancing for Development (held in Monterrey, though the Bank is working in partnership with Mexico) helped focus the effort by laying out other donors and cannot alone be held ac- the basic elements of a new global partnership. countable for achieving the MDGs, it is still im- The adoption of the MDGs, however, also pres- portant for the Bank to consider how effectively ents risks to the Bank and to the larger devel- its assistance is contributing to progress toward opment community-risks posed by the cynicism the agreed on goals. This is unlikely to be easy, and that failure (or only partial success) could en- it will require that the mechanisms and processes gender. Such cynicism is a danger, given that that convert Bank actions into outcomes be many health and social sector goals the devel- spelled out in a clear strategy (with an explicit log- opment community had set for itself over the past 3 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS quarter century, shown in figure 1.1, remain ei- Focusing on outcomes among the poor, ther unattained or only partially attained It is al- notjust average outcomes. It would be pos- ready clear, as Chapter 2 illustrates, that given sible to achieve the global MDG targets simply current trends of progress, many countries and by focusing on a few large countries-for ex- some regions will be not be able to achieve the ample, India, China, and Brazil Within coun- MDGs by 2015 2 tries, MDG targets could be achieved by Development challenges posed by the MDGs improvements in the MDG indicators among include: the nonpoor For example, a recent review by Incorporating country priorities and con- the Bank finds that since the health MDGs are ditions. Even though most MDGs are defined stated in terms of improvement in societal av- in relative rather than absolute terms, individ- erages rather than in gains among poor pop- ual countries will still have to customize goals ulation groups within societies, improvements and targets according to their national pnori- in any population group, including the better- ties, institutional capacity, and level of progress off, would produce progress toward the health Careful attention must be paid to assigning rel- targets (Gwatkin 2002) Special effort will be re- ative weights across the MDGs and the sectors quired to ensure that health interventions and subsectors they cover, as well as across re- reach people below the poverty line if those gions within a country Choices will have to be people are to gain significantly from progress made about the relative emphasis on "access" toward the MDG health targets Efforts to reach versus "quality" and any resulting tensions and global targets should not lead to neglect of tradeoffs resolved, stnking the nght balance Im- countries deemed insignificant to achieving plementing the MDGs and adapting the tar- the targets or of difficult-to-reach population gets appropriately to conditions within the groups The way that the Bank and countries countries also requires that many of the nec- interpret the MDGs needs to be clarified and essary strategies and actions be adopted and examined Do they treat the goals as a stimu- "owned" at the level of subnational (especially lus to enhanced efforts at reducing poverty in municipal) governments, working with other all member countries, albeit with an empha- local stakeholders Assisting countries to im- sis on the poorest countries? Or do they in- prove the coherence and effectiveness of fiscal, terpret them to mean a call to concentrate administrative, and political decentralization specifically on the poorest countnes, and within will be vital to achieving MDG outcomes them on those earning less than $1 per day? Harnessing the contributions of sectors The appropriateness of the interpretation will without an explicit MDG goal or target. depend on the country's circumstances De- The MDGs focus explicitly on some sectors pending on the interpretation, there may be sig- and thematic areas and only implicitly on oth- nificant implications for the deployment of ers A danger is that the sectors and themes not Bank resources across sectors and countries explicitly mentioned-for example, rural de- Identifying the results chain and moni- velopment or transportation-will be neg- toring appropriate intermediate indi- lected Yet progress in these areas is vital to cators. MDG indicators currently lack achieving MDG outcomes. Economic growth, measures of well-being that are important for while not mentioned specifically among the capturing more qualitative elements of devel- MDGs, underlies the achievement of each of opment effectiveness (World Bank 2002h)-for the MDGs, and its primacy cannot be overem- example, learning achievement Furthermore, phasized. The challenge is to ensure that they are a mix of output and outcome indica- quick, short-term gains are not supported to tors They need to be complemented by ex- the neglect of more difficult but durable re- plicit, intermediate indicators for monitoring forms, including those in country-level gov- the steps leading to desired outcomes Such in- ernance structures, which would require dicators can be used in performance manage- action over the medium to long term. ment and to help reduce the attribution 4 International Second World Conference on International World Fourth Conference on Nutrition by Conference Summit for World Human World Education World Food on Population Social Conference Development Health World Summit for All, Summit, and Development, Development, on Women, Settlements IDTs Organization for Children Jomtien Rome Cairo Copenhagen Beijing (Habitat 11) U N 1977 1990 1990 1992 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 11 11 111 11 I I1 1 a I Health for All by Reduce child Ensure education Reach consensus Improve population Reduce infant Reduce maternal Promote the Seven targets 2000 Spend at mortality by 1/3 for all by 2000 on roots of mal- policies, repro- mortality, mortality, importance of related to poverty, least 5% of GNP of 1990 rates, nutrition in food, ductive health maternal increase school access to human develop- on health halve 1990 disease, and (maternal mortality, mortality, etc enrollment and adequate safe ment, and environ- Increase access maternal mor- behavior, bring family planning literacy for drinking water ment (see Annex to safe water to tality rates and about major services, etc) girls and and proper sani- C) 85% coverage, malnutrition in reforms in five women, etc tation for all, sanitation children, achieve intersectoral along with facilities in the 90% immunization areas to availability of home to 75% rates among address mal- adequate coverage, immuni- children under nutrition, etc shelter zation to 90% one, achieve 80% coverage, etc primary completion rate, provide clean water and sanitation for all, etc 0n 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS problems associated with outcome indicators monitoring them, the MDGs will not fulfill (White forthcoming). In addition, the infre- their promise. quency of and long lags in the collection of data on some MDG indicators, which reduces their There is an emerging literature about managing usefulness for routine performance manage- the risks of target-driven programs (see box 1.3). ment, underline the need for intermediate in- dicators. Even where data are available, they Organization and Sources may be of poor quality-for example, mater- The next three chapters discuss how the Bank's nal mortality data are notoriously unreliable country, sector, and global programs have ad- (White forthcoming). The challenge is to build dressed the MDGs and the implications for fu- in-country data collection, analysis, and uti- ture work. The final chapter concludes this report, lization capacity. and the Appendix presents project performance Addressing incentivesfor achieving out- results. Figure 1.2 summarizes the results of proj- comes and monitoring them. Govern- ect outcomes, which have continued to improve- ments and donors often lack incentives to inFYOl theyexceededforasecondyearthe 1997 measure how they are performing. Without at- Strategic Compact target of 75 percent satisfactory. tention to incentives for outcomes and for Achieving the MDGs will require that this solid per- | 3 ( i3 K 9 3 W dmsDtgbfl00g A major risk of target-driven approaches such as those embodied Creating the right incentives. Targets can be used to structure in the PMDGs is that they can distort priorities. For example, when incentives. For ex:ample, many organizations use performance- the U.K. government set Health Senrice targets for hospitals to re- related pay to do so. It is important, however, to design incen- duce the number of people on waiting lists, hospitals gave prior- tives that reward genuine value added or difference-made ityto cases that were easy to treat. Thus, while waiting lists were characteristics. For example, enam results can be a poor guide quickly reduced, attention to acute conditions was delayed. to the quality of teaching. It may be easier to teach prosperous, Target-driven approaches can prevent such priority distortion well-motivated children who easily obtain good results than poor through the following measures. and poorly motivated children, for whom average results may rep- resent an excellent outcome. Localizing targets. Global targets should be supplemented by, or adapted to, loc'al targets with local definitions and local indi- Reciprocal accountability. In the spirit of learning organiza- cators. The desirability of including key staiteholders in efforts tions, the principle of reciprocal accountability implies that to locally define and monitor their implementation cannot be managers and staff, central planners and line ministries, head- overemphasized. To avoid manipulation or distortion of actions quarters and field units all share responsibility for success or driven bV quantitative targets, a process that gives the ultimate failure. Achievement or failure must be looked at in the context stakeholders, a prominent role in defining targets and tracking of a system as a whole. their implementation will be helpful, as illustrated by the sank's interventions targeted at slum dwellers. Adoptingaprocessapproach thatallows quick changes. Plans should be made, but it should be possible to make revisions Combining quantitative and qualitative targets. Targets should in- quickly as conditions warrant. This is particularly important corporate qualitative as well as quantitative elements. Client sat- where the operating environment is evolving. isfaction with health seivices is as important as, if not more important than, number of hospitals buil-even if not as easily measured. Source: Based on Maxwell (forthcoming); Maxswell and Kenway 200a; and Banki staff comments. 6 THE MDGs AS A BENCHMARK FOR DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS formance be sustained and that the Bank increase * Project Performance Assessment Reports and its efforts to help clients achieve country-level im- evaluation summaries for 331 projects evalu- provemnents in economic well-being, human de- ated slnce the last Annual Review and more velopment, environmental sustainability, and other than 5,000 previously evaluated projects in relevant development outcomes OED's database. In addition to sources outside the Operations * Country Assistance Evaluations (CAEs) pre- Evaluation Department (OED) and the rest of the pared during FY99-02 World Bank, this review draws upon OED eval- * Studies of sectors and thematic areas. uation findings from. F ig u re 1 . 2 Ej;F: a Percent satisfactory outcome 100 . 80~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .0~. . t.. .v. 50 40- By project Weighted by disbursement 20 I I I I I I I FY90 FY93 FY96 FY99 FY02* * Partial Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 7 -~~~~~~F- Country Programs and the MDGs The Bank 'sprimaryfocus remains at the country level within theframe- work of the Comprehensive Development Framework/Poverty Re- duction Strategy Paper/Country Assistance Strategy and informed by the five corporate advocacy priorities. -World Bank's FY03-05 Strategic Documents' The MDGs represent global goals and targets rent trajectories (World Bank 2002h) Wide dis- They are expressed in terms of common stan- parities are evident within South Asia, where dards, such as the number of people living below several countnes are still far fiom achieving many $1 per day, to enable cross-country comparisons of the MDGs Annex D presents the prospects of Global targets also play an important role in achieving the global MDG targets for low-in- helping mobilize additional resources for de- come, low-midcdle-income, ancl upper-milddle- velopment assistance-which lis important be- income countries While significant efforts have cause Bank estimates suggest that the adclitional been made to compile the data, uneven quality cost of achieving MDGs for poverty reduction, and varying availability of the data make track- education, health, and the environment would ing progress toward the attainment of the MDGs require doubling the real value of aid flows.2 a clifficult task. For some goals, such as improv- At the global level, the MDG for eraclicating ing maternal health and reclucing the spread of extreme poverty is likely to be met on current tuberculosis, insufficient data makes tracking trends (figure 2 la) The universal primary ecl- progress particularly difficult Moreover, the data ucation MDG could be achieved if a shift from are derived from available country averages, current trends occurs (figure 2 lb). This global which themselves mask important variations picture obscures important regional differences. that occur within each country (World Bank Achieving the MDG for poverty poses particularly 2002h) daunting challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa (box Measuring country progress against global 2 1) Broadly, many of the countries of Eastern MDG targets is an interim step, pending the es- Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and tablishment of localized, realistic targets for each East Asia ai-e on track to achieve many of the countiy If the MDGs are to have an impact on MDG targets, while few Sub-Saharan African development programs, they need to be tailored countries are likely to meet them in light of cur- to each country's current level of progress and 9 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS 1 D q w 2 (D '29 Oi@ ME SC)e (DQ ~)(D 10iL)O QV 2G 1 3 @ 1] Percent 30- 25- 20 Current trend Required trend 15- 10 - 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Note: The $1 a day is in 1993 consumption purchasing power parity terms. The numbers are estimated from those countries in each Region for which at least one survey was available during the period 1995-01. Survey dates often do not coincide with the dates in the figure. To line them up with the dates, the survey estimates were adjusted using the closest available survey for each country and applying the consumption growth rate from national accounts. Using the assumption that the sample of countries covered by surveys is representative of the Region as a whole, the numbers of poor are then estimated by Region. This assumption is obviously less robust in the Regions with the lowest survey coverage. The headcount index is the percent of the population belcw the poverty line. Further details on data ahd methodology can be found in Ravallion and Chen 2000. The historical series to 1999 was updated in Oc- tober 2002 for the 2003 edition of Global Economic Prospects. Source: Data for 1990, 1999, and projection to 2015 are from World Bank 2003. The required trend line is based on exponential extrapolation. DOR ?G g) 9( D 22 [ 00 2) (i 7 0(D [§) D i ) 9 sie C 00002 D Q gouas G O Percent 100 90 - Required trend v o 80 - urrent trend 70 7 0 i p I I I E I I I I I I X I l l l l 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source: Data for 1990-2000 and the projection to 2015 are from the Human Development Network, The required trend line is based an exponential extrapolation. 1 0 COUNTRY PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Box 2.1 Regional Picture for Three MDGs South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are home to half of the ratehasstagnatedataround51 percentoverthepastdecade.The world's poor. As depicted in figure 2.2, South Asia will be able Region will have to have an annual rate of increase of 4.5 per- to achieve the poverty MOG, but Sub-Saharan Africa will need cent to achieve 100 percent primary school completion by 2015. to more than triple its currently slow pace of poverty reduction As for under-five mortality (figure 2.4), both Sub-Saharan if the poverty MDG is to be achieved in the Region. Africa and South Asia will require significant improvements In the case of primary school completion rates, progress in from current trends to meet the goals. Sub-Saharan Africa will South Asia is slow, as shown in figure 2.3. In Africa, the completion need a decline of 8 percent yearly, and South Asia 6 percent. Proportion of Population in So u A s i a Fig u re 2 .2 (SA) and Sub-Saharan Africa on Less Than $1 per Day Percent 50- 50 SA Current 40 - tren SSA Required SA Current tren d trend 30 - SA Require ren t 20 I I I I 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Note See note attached to figure 2 la Source Data for 1990 and 1999 and the projection for 2015 are from World Bank 2003 The required trend lmes are based on exponential extrapolation Primary School Completion Rate in Figure 2.3 South Asia (SA) and Africa Region (AFR) (Population Weighted) Percent 100- . 1 SA Required trend 8-SA Currenttrend 00 ~~~~~~ w~~~ AFR Required 60- trend 40 1 ~~AFR Current trend 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source 1990 2000 figures provided by the Human Development Netvvork The required trend lines are based on exponential extrapolation 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Figure 2.4 Deaths per thousand live births 170- SSA: Current trend % 135- s SSA: Required _ st~~~~~~~4rend 100- SA:Currenttrend 65 - % SA: Required trend ^ _ 30 . . .. .. . .. . . .. . . . .. . . 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source:Data for 1990and 2000arefrom WorldDevelopmentlndicators2002.The requiredtrend lines are based on exponential extrapolation, its institutional capacity for improvement. The Bank for three decades-in the early 1970s, for- goals also need to reflect local priorities, as es- mer Bank President Robert McNamara an- tablished by sovereign governments and their cit- nounced a renewed focus on poverty reduction izens. Vietnam's Poverty Reduction Strategy and human development. Since then, World De- Paper (PRSP) offers a good illustration of how the velopment Reports (WDRs) of 1980, 1990, and MDGs can be tailored to a country's circum- 2000/01 have further developed these themes, stances (box 2.2). The Bank's Country Assis- with the latest WDR adding empowerment as a tance Strategy (CAS) for Vietnam is also grounded key factor for poverty reduction. The Bank's in the same goals. country programs have become increasingly This chapter assesses how CASs and other aligned with this institutional focus, and thus instruments of Bank assistance have acldressed with the MDGs in these areas. the MDGs. It also examines the treatment of Evaluation results confirm that the Bank's quantitative targets in PRSPs. It draws upon country programs pay significant attention to OED's Country Assistance Evaluations (CAEs)3 as poverty reduction, primary education, and pri- well as a review of recent CASs4 and PRSPs.5 The mary health services. Bank analysis of CASs com- chapter focuses primarily on MDG goals 1 pleted over FYOO-01(first half) showed 61 through 6, for which there were corresponding percent of the CASs as satisfactory or better with IDTs. Therefore, these goals have hacl develop- respect to their poverty focus based on revised ment targets for a longer period than have the criteria (71 percent based on original criteria).6 goals in sectors such as water or urban devel- The CASs showed significant improvement in opment. Hence there is a better chance of goals terms of poverty diagnosis. About 90 percent of 1 through 6 being reflected in Bank-supported the CASs gave fair or good treatment to the so- country programs. cial sectors. Bank analysis also showed that vir- tually all CASs identified macroeconomic issues Hov Have the Bank's Country Programs as priority areas, while 71 percent identified in- Addressed the MDGs? frastructure and 29 percent energy as priorities, and most of the CASs addressed rural issues. Is- The Bank's country programs have sues identified as needing greater attention in- increasingly focused on poverty reduction and cluded increasing the coverage of environmental human development, issues (including natural resource management), Poverty reduction and human development have linking identified gencler priorities with follow- been important institutional emphases in the up actions, and integrating analytical finclings 1 2 COUNTRY PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Box 2 .2 Tailoring the MDGs to Vietnam's ' s211 ......... ..... ..... ... ... ..... . _ . ........ .... .. .. .................. .. . . - ............... ............ ... ..... .__ Vietnam's 2001 Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth thirds. Instead, a target of reducing child mortality from 58 to Strategy chose eight themes to guide the country's fight against 32 per 1,000 births by 2010 was adopted, which would mean a poverty. Several themes were linked to the MDGs, while four 45 percent reduction instead of the 67 percent (two-thirds) goals were added to reflect local conditions and interests. reduction indicated in the child mortality MDG. Considering These included reducing vulnerability, improving governance, that the child mortality rate in Vietnam was already 34 per 1,000 reducing ethnic inequality, and ensuring propoor infrastruc- births in 2000, the target adopted for 2010 may appear low. In ture development. The targets were customized to suit the contrast, Vietnam's target for reducing malnutrition is more am- Vietnamese context. For example, Vietnam's child mortality bitious than the MDG-it has been set at a 60 percent reduc- rates were already relatively low, so it was deemed unreal- tion by 2010 rather than the MDG target of a 50 percent istic to adopt the MDG target of reducing child mortality by two- reduction by 2015. Source: Bank staff interviews; World Bank 2002i. from the work on governance into the clesign of rating poverty goals. In Kazakhstan, for instance, the Bank's country programs. the OED CAE noted that in hindsight, the Bank, A number of OED CAEs have noted improved along with other donors, was overly optimistic in treatment of poverty in the Bank's country pro- its expectation that the transition from a planned grams. For example, the fiscal 2001 India CAE to a market economy in the former Soviet Union noted that the relevance of the Bank's CAS had countries could be accomplished in a short time improved substantially over the past two years, and at low social cost. The strategy did not focus with a sharper focus on poverty reduction, a forcefully enough on institutions, protection of more selective approach to state assistance, and the poor, or gender issues. According to the fis- greater attention to governance and institutions. cal 2001 Kazakhstan CAS, the findings of the PER Similarly, the fiscal 2000 Burkina Faso CAE noted will be used to shape a Social Protection Adjust- that the country's adjustment and debt relief ment Reform Loan that will help reorient public operations had focused on poverty benchmarks, expenditures toward investment in infrastruc- which had been a critical factor in gaining gov- ture and social assistance. And a household sur- ernment attention for these issues. vey for Kazakhstan will provide an improved OED CAEs have also observed that even in basis for poverty analysis. some countries with low levels of poverty, poverty reduction has been a focus of the Bank's country PRSPs use targets more frequently than programs. In Chiie, for instance, even though ex- CASs-but PRSP targets are ambitious. treme poverty had dropped to about 6 percent of PRSPs have incorporated targets into develop- the population, poverty reduction was still part of ment programs more commonly than have CASs. the Bank's CAS. Yet, given the absence of a strate-. As box 2.3 shows, the majority of sampled CASs gic framework for poverty reduction in middle- lacked quantitative targets for key MDGs such income countries of the kind provided by PRSPs as poverty reduction, under-five mortality, and in low-income countries, the Bank will have to take universal primary enrollment. By contrast, the special measures to ensure that poverty reduction 12 PRSPs prepared during a similar period but is not neglected in these countries, especially in for a different set of countries all established some regions or among particular population poverty reduction targets based on national groups, and to involve governments and other poverty lines.7 All PRSPs (for countries with less stakeholders in designing appropriate strategies. than universal primary eclucation) also set tar- The Bank's country programs in transition gets for universal primary enrollment and for re- countries have been less successful at incorpo- ductions in maternal mortality. As more PRSPs 1 3 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Box 2.3 b [ Is there a quantitative target? CAS PRSP Targets for reducing national poverty rates No - Yes Targets for reducing infant mortality ( Targets for reducing maternal mortality Targets for achieving universal primary education' Targets for achieving gender equality in education 3 Note: The pie charts are based on 15 CASs, since 3 countries had already achieved universal primary education. For PRSPs, the pie charts are based on 11 PRSPs, since one country had already achieved universal primary education. Source: Based on 18 sampled CASs and 12 PRSPs {see chapter endnotes 4 and 5). are completed, they will provide an improved changes must still be realistic. The 2002 Joint Staff basis to introduce targets into CASs for low-in- Review of the PRSP approach highlighted the set- come countries. ting of more realistic PRSP goals and targets as The PRSPs' use of targets needs to be im- a challenge (World Bank 2002j). proved by a more realistic assessment of their The CASs that do include targets do not al- achievability. While all PRSPs reviewed stated ways incorporate a Bank strategy to help the the per capita growth rate the country will need country achieve them. In the case of maternal to reach the poverty tarjet, only a quarter of the mortality, for instance, five CASs set the goal of countries appear likely to reach that rate, based a three-quarters reduction by 2015-but none on past performance. This type of disconnect also discusses the current rates and causes of mor- affects the universal primary enrollment target. tality or ways to accomplish reductions. As for Based on past trends, only Bolivia, Uganda, and under-five mortality, three CASs include spe- Vietnam are on track to achieve universal primary cific health projects, but none of these CASs re- enrollment by 2015. As for under-five mortality, lates the projects to the objective of reducing only'five countries stand a good chance of meet- child mortality. The Bank's Health, Nutrition, ing their goals, based on past performance. In the and Population Department is currently devel- remaining seven countries, the target is unlikely oping an Action Plan for FY03-05 based on an to be achieved-as illustrated by Burkina Faso individual country approach for all countries. (figure 2.5), where the rate of decline would Targets for health outcomes in terms of the have to increase from the current 1 percent to MDGs are being set in regional and country-level more than 6 percent. While government and discussions as an integral part of Action Plan de- donor actions can influence trends, the expected velopment. 1 4 COUNTRY PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Figure 2 5 Burkina Faso - Current and Required Trend for Under-Five Mortality Rate Deaths per thousand live births 250 - 200 -Current trend 4k, 150 - 100 Required trend 50 - l 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Note, The required trend line is based on exponential extrapolation. Source: World Development Indicators 2002. Performance monitoring is increasing, but MDG indicators.8 Another four PRSPs (Mozam- systematic monitoring and evaluation of bique, Mauritania, Niger, and Zambia) state that outcomes is not yet a core component of the country will monitor two of the three indi- countryprograms. cators and the remaining six PRSPs will monitor Many OED reports evaluating country programs and collect information on poverty headcount in the 1990s concluded that attention to moni- alone. With regard to education, only Niger and toring and evaluation was weak (OED 2002c). Vietnam will monitor all three key MDG indica- Bank analysis confirms that monitoring remains tors (net enrollment, proportion reaching grade one of the weakest areas of CASs. It notes that 5, and illiteracy of 15- to 24-year-olds). The choice while there have been improvements, orrly about of indicators in the PRSPs could differ from the 40 percent of recent CASs are satisfactory or bet- precise MDG indicators, depending on country ter; about 50 percent of CASs do not contain core conditions and program objectives. A recent targets; and about 60 percent do not distinguish PRSP Progress Report (World Bank 2002j) rec- between country and Bank performance targets. ommended that PRSPs be more explicit in iden- The Bank has recently launched major initiatives tifying short-term and intermediate indicators to better manage for results, as summarized in based on policies and programs and linking Annex E. These are likely to improve attention to them to longer-term development objectives. It monitoring and evaluation but cannot be ex- also recommended that in preparing PRSPs, early pected to bear fruit swiftly or easily. attention be paid to the monitoring and evalu- PRSPs, despite their greater attention to quan- ation framework, the definition of intermediate titative targets, often do not follow through with indicators, the collection of baseline data, and the monitoring and evaluation programs. Only two assessment of institutional capacity for moni- PRSPs-those for Uganda and Vietnam-indi- toring and evaluation. The 2002 PRSP for Alba- cate that a program will be in place to monitor nia contains a detailed discussion of how and collect information on the three poverty progress on PRSP objectives will be monitored. 1 5 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Poverty-related analytical work underlying hold survey data This has enabled the Bank and country programs needs further strengthening. the government to undertake joint analytical The analysis, data, and projections that underpin work on the incidence and causes of poverty, the Bank's programs could be further improved which is expected to lead to the preparation of Quality Assurance Group (QAG) reviews of eco- a comprehensive poverty reduction strategy nomic and sector work (ESW) confirm that there Overall, however, the lack of access to adequate is room to enhance the quality of the Bank's poverty data remains an issue and has been ESW relating to poverty reduction strategies and noted in many CASs Given small sample sizes, poverty-related analysis, to poor policy environ- many surveys do not yet allow enough repre- ments, and to fiduciary issues (OED 2002a) sentative breakdown of data, thus limiting the Poverty assessments, done by the Bank since ability to conduct analysis across or within cities, 1991, are an important source of the analytical subregions, and population groups in a country. work underpinning the Bank's poverty-reduction A number of efforts are under way to improve efforts A 1999 OED review showed that there the analysis of poverty data For example, as part had been a modest improvement in the pro- of the Russian Federation CAS, the Russian gov- portion of poverty assessments rated satisfactory ernment, the U K Department for internationial on "economic quality."9 But it also showed that Development (DFID), and the Bank will support more than 60 percent of the poverty assess- a collaborative program to measure and analyze ments did not state their objectives with the poverty, to improve methodology, ancd to develop necessary specificity. More than half of the re- policy recommendations on how to reduce poverty viewed assessments contained limited policy and impprove social protection of vulnerable analysis that was not usually based on rigorous groups Implementation of this program is one of methodological approaches-the assessments the tnggers for the Bank's base case lencling sce- rarely incorporated a clear conceptualization of nano for FY03-05 In some countnes, the focus on the link between macroeconomic, structural, poverty is diluted by the limited capacity to ana- and sectoral reforms and poverty or of distrib- lyze available data The capacity to analyze the utional outcomes The 2000 OED evaluation of factors explaining the current levels in MDG-related the Bank's poverty reduction strategy showed indicators and other relevant development out- that nearly half of the poverty assessments did comes is a requirement for understancling trends, not adequately address the individual elements formulating strategies to change those trends, of broacd-based growth, social services provi- and making projections for the future sion, and safety nets, nor did they justify the The focus on MDGs will increasingly require balance among these elements in strategy rec- that the Bank and the countries make projec- ommendations (OED 2000b) It also noted that tions for various indicators to provide the basis few CASs clearly explained the meaning of for designing strategies to achieve the MDGs or broadly based growth or established the links be- similar targets Of the 18 sampled CASs, fewer tween growth-oriented policies and poverty re- than half discussed projections of poverty levels. duction within the context of specific country Although this was an improvement over previous conditions Moreover, few of the Bank's Public CASs for the same countries, none of which had Expenditure Reviews helped clients sort out discussed projections of poverty, only the fiscal tradeoffs in public expenditure allocation or sug- 2000 CAS for Burkina Faso based poverty pro- gested how sector or poverty outcomes could be jections on a formal model. For some countries, monitored (OED 2000b) CASs used the government's targets or poverty There has been continued and substantial projections, such as those prepared for five-year progress in obtaining household survey data in plans, or "aligned" the Bank with the MDGs many Regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa In adopted by the government but did not explain Egypt-where lack of access to poverty data had the reason or basis for the alignment A CAS been flagged as a major problem in the fiscal 2001 should assess the analytic underpinnings and re- CAS-the Bank now has access to primary house- alism of such government projections and targets 1 6 COUNTRY PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs The use of different analytical methods to to adjust to deliberate changes in government make projections of poverty within the Bank policies or donor programs. At other times, the often results in discrepancies between poverty main reason is likely to be a change in the gov- projections prepared by country teams ancd pro- ernment's budget or its priorities and the re- jections prepared by the Bank's Development lated lack of country ownership Economics ancl Chief Economist (DEC) De- While each project proposed in the CAS may partment Depencling on which projections are individually be consistent with the CAS objectives, usecl, the implications for the clesign of poverty it is not always clear that the summation of Bank reduction strategies can differ vastly. It will be im- lending in the CAS is the best way to address the portant for the Bank to ensure the soundness of CAS objectives Bank analysis shows that in- the projections on which it bases its strategies strument choice ancd selectivity in lending and The East Asia and Pacific Region has for some nonlending activities to support the CAS remain years published short-term projections of poverty weak. Fewer than 60 percent of the CASs are that are used in the country dialogue on poverty rated satisfactory or better on the basis of reduction The Latin America and the Caribbean whether they used selectivity criteria to discuss Region has also recently prepared preliminary the rationale for instrument choice projections for selected MDGs to assess whether The overall sectoral composition of Bank lend- they will be achieved Differences in projections ing has remainec almost the same since the ad- resulting from methodology choices and data lim- vent of the MDGs, whlile there was a shift in itations should be explained to avoid confusion lending among some themes between FY97-00 and to highlight the strengths and limitations of and FYO1-02, as shown in figure 2.6 (the corre- the different projection methods. lation coefficient is 0.83 for themes and 0 99 for sectors) Increased public expenditures in sectors Alignment of lending programs with country that are explicitly mentioned in the MDGs is not assistance strategies and MDGs needs greater necessarily the way for countries to achieve the attention. goals. For example, background work for the Strategies for poverty reduction proposed in World Development Report 2004 Making Ser- CASs are not always reflected in the actual as- vices Work for the Poor indicates that public sistance program A 1997 Bank report on poverty funds may be spent on the wrong services and in Sub-Saharan Africa concludecd that although people, they may be sucked away by corruption, poverty assessments in Sub-Saharan African coun- they may reach service providers who lack the in- tries had done a reasonably good job of identi- centives to provide quality services, or there may fying the policy and strategic options that would be no clemand for the services provided The assist the poor to become more active partici- Bank's Public Expenditure Reviews have also pants in growth, these options typically were noted rapidly decreasing returns from increasing not reflected in the Bank's assistance strategies expenditure allocations to education in the ab- and operations (World Bank 1997c) In its review sence of sector reform and increased institu- of the poverty focus of projects under imple- tional capacity Nevertheless, lending allocations mentation in rural areas over the FY99-01 period, across sectors need to be assessed-in the con- QAG found that projects were weakest in link- text of each CAS-for their consistency with the ing their interventions to the poverty diagnosis objectives of poverty reduction and other MDGs. (World Bank 2002h) Other sources have made Closer scrutiny is needed of the links between the criticisms of donor programs by referring to the analytical components of each CAS that address "missing middle", that is, donors lay out lofty cle- the country's development challenges, the Bank velopment goals that are at best weakly linked strategy proposed to address the Issues identified, to the activities supported on the ground (White and the lending program and other instruments and Booth forthcoming). The differences be- pi-oposed to implement the strategy (including tween goals, strategy, and lending programs the role of the private sector and development could result from natural disasters or the need partners). 1 7 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS 100% Theme 100%tor Other Other.i 80% Env RD 80% Others ers 60% HO 60 40% 4PSD 0% HSS 20% 20% E&M E&M 0% EM__ 1997-99 2000-02 1997-99 2000-02 Note Theme-PSD financial and private sector development, PSG = public sector governance, SP+SD = social protection and social development, RD = rural development, HD = human development, EM = economic management, UD = urban development, Env = environment, Others = rule of law, trade and integration Sector-Trans = transportation, Fin = finance, E&M = energy and mining, HSS = health and other social services, WSFP = water, sanitation, and flood protection, Edu = education, AFF = agriculture, fishing, and forestry, Others = law and public administration, information and communications, industry and trade Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 There are usually no tradeoffs between countnes, adjustment programs have had a nega- adjustment lending and government tive impact on the share of health and education expenditures for human development, expenditures in GDP (OED 1999a) It is conceiv- What role does adjustment lending play in the able that even where the volume of postadjustment Bank's support for the MDGs7 Adjustment lend- social expenditure declines, its poverty reduction ing is designed to address obstacles to growth impact may increase because of increased effi- and poverty reduction consistent with the poverty ciencies or greater access to services. While Sub- reduction MDG. There has been debate about SaharanAfncan countnes maybe a special case, the whether such lending "crowds out" lending to issue is of relevance for Bank adjustment and so- the social sectors within a country assistance pro- cial sector lending and for its acuons to address the gram In OED's 1995 review of the question, it con- MDGs, and will need continuing attention cluded that in most countries adjustment lending did not have a negative impact on the social sec- What Are the Implications for Future tors (OED 1995) Analysis undertaken by the Bank Bank Country Programs? indicated that social expenditures in adjusting countries rose-as a share both of total expendi- CASs must include quantified and time-bound ture and gross domestic product (GDP)-rela- objectives and targets. tive to that in countries with no adjustment The global MDGs must be translated into coun- program Social expenditures per capita were also try-specific goals with quantified and time-bound found to rise substantially more often than they targets and effective strategies for achieving fell one to three years after an adjustment opera- them. This will require a realistic assessment of tion But a 1999 OED review of the Higher Impact capacity and resources at the country level and Adjustment Lending (HIAL) program in Sub-Sa- a credible strategy to reach the targets that makes haran Afncan countnes in 1999 did reveal some ev- the necessary tradeoffs The Bank's CAS, as the idence that, based on data for a limited sample of instrument for arraying Bank interventions in 1 8 COUNTRY PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs support of a results-focused strategy, must spec- to monitor and evaluate performance against ify quantified and time-bound targets, relate development outcomes (as opposed to simply them to the MDGs and other relevant develop- measuring performance in terms of resources ment objectives, and ensure Bank interventions disbursed, as has traditionally been the case). that will support them. The timeframe of the CASs and PRSPs is much In low-income countries, the government's shorter than the 15-year timeframe of the MDGs. PRSP provides a key anchor for the CAS, espe- Hence, it is important to identify and track ap- cially if its targets are realistic and its strategy well- propriate intermediate indicators in the CASs reasoned. In middle-income countries, for which and PRSPs that can provide interim measures of there is no strategic framework that sets out the progress toward the final outcomes. poverty reduction objectives and strategy of the In 2002, the Bank launched an initiative, kind provided by PRSPs in low-income coun- emerging from the Monterrey agreement, to tries, the CAS nonetheless should define quan- give increased attention to better measurement, titative and time-bound targets, and the Bank monitoring, and managing for development re- must engage with the government and other sults (World Bank 2002a). The two pillars of this stakeholders in this process. approach are helping countries to adopt re- sults-based strategies and are increasing the Improved monitoring and evaluation measures Bank's own results orientation. Annex E de- are required to track the performance of Bank scribes the initiatives supported by the Bank actions, as well as country-level progress in under each of these pillars; the Bank is cur- meeting agreed development goals and rently preparing a plan for implementing them. targets. In addition, the Bank has put in place a system More attention to monitoring and evaluation in that tracks the experience of more than 50 coun- CASs and PRSPs is required, with respect both to tries in implementing the Comprehensive De- Bank and to country-level performance meas- velopment Framework principles. This includes urement. Bringing about such improvements is a focus on development results and the extent likely to be expensive. In recent years, the Bank's of links to the MDGs. The experience of DFID direct costs for country monitoring, formulating in addressing the MDGs, summarized in box and monitoring CASs, and providing global mon- 2.4, should be reviewed for lessons it may have itoring services have fluctuated between 0.42 for the Bank. percent of total direct costs in FY99, 2.05 percent The Bank is also helping to build govern- in FY00, 1.83 percent in FY01, and 1.97 percent ment monitoring and evaluation systems in FY02.10 The adequacy of these resource lev- through Evaluation Capacity Development els should be reviewed, and their use moni- (ECD). Since 1999, ECD activities have started tored. In addition, appropriate incentives-must in 21 countries, including 8 in the Africa Re- be ensured-in countries and within the Bank- gion, 5 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Box 2.4 How DFID Is Using the MDGs to Influence Departmental Performance The U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) has poverty) or a group of targets (such as health). MOGs are used placed the MDGs at the center stage of its corporate strategy, as the basis of DFID's Public Service Agreements-written com- embracing them more strongly than any other donor. Target mitments of a department's objectives, related performance Strategy Papers have been prepared to indicate how DFID will measures, and the activities to be undertaken in support of address a single development target (for example, halving world those objectives. Source: White forthcoming. 1 9 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS 4 in the Europe and Central Asla Region. In ad- and the Bank's Research and Africa Quality and dition, related capacity-building is provided by Knowledge groups (statistical capacity build- the World Bank Institute (staff and client train- ing), among others. It is too early to know the ing and on-demand distance learning courses) results of these initiatives 20 Sector Programs and the MDGs We will use the Sector Strategy Papers and Corporate Scorecard more to track our performance with a longer-term comprehensive view as they relate to development effectiveness-including progress towards the International Development Goals (IDGs). In particular, ourfocus will be on enhancing measurement of the Bank 's impact on the IDGs. -Strategic Directions Paper (World Bank 2001c) By emphasizing a multidimensional concept of tors. The urgency of such action is underscored poverty that includes income and non-income by the large number of people who lack access measures of well-being, the MDGs highlight the to adequate income and basic services, as shown importance of Bank action in a number of sec- in box 3.1. [Bom ~ lA8(@ tS.i 1 ]( 3~9b(? 93GUTOG3(3(B3 Income: Nearly 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 a day, and Basic Urban Services: About 840 million people worldwide live 2.8 billion on less than $2 a day. in slums without basic services. Basic Healthcare: Two million African infants die each year, and Energy: About 1.6 billion people in Africa, Asia, and Latin Amer- as many again before they reach age five. This figure has not ica have no access to electricity, including 90 percent of the pop- changed in more than two decades and represents 10,000 avoid- ulation of most Sub-Saharan African countries. About 2 billion able deaths every single day for more than 20 years. people lack access to clean, safe cooking fuels and remain de- pendent on traditional biomass sources. Primary Education: Just over half of all school-aged children p complete primary school in Sub-Saharan Africa (55 percent) Water About 1 billion people lack access to improved water ser- and South Asia (56 percent). In the developing world as a whole, vices; 2 billion people live without improved sanitation; 4 billion the average primary school completion rate is 72 percent. people live without sound wastewater disposal; and 3 million Roads: About 900 million rural people in developing countries children die of waterborne diseases every year lack access to an all-weather road. Source: World Bank 2002i; White forthcoming; World Bank sector staff; and Secure Tenure Index, UN Habitat. 2 1 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS This chapter examines how the Bank's sector many sectors are linked to many MDGs-high- programs (including sector strategies, analyti- lighting the need for complementary solutions, cal work, and lending) have addressed the MDGs integrated across several sectors (table 3.1) Box and other relevant development outcomes and 3.2 provides a focused look at the transportation the implications for future work Sector strate- sector gies assessed are those for education, health, rural development, transportation, urban de- How Have tDhe Bank's SectoT Pogramos velopment, energy, environment, and water, as Addressed the ilOGs? well as strategies for the private sector and the financial sector (World Bank 1993b, 1996, 1997a, The Bank's sector strategies are consistent b, 1999a, 2000b, 2001d, 2002b, f, k, 1, o; forth- with the i/DGs and rightly place them coming a) Much of the evidence for this chap- alongside other sector goals in a broader ter comes from OED's extensive number and development framework. range of sector evaluations undertaken since The MDG themes of poverty reduction, human 1998 (OED 1998, 1999b, c, 2000b, c, 2001b, c, development, and environmental sustainability 2002d, f, g, h, i, j, k, 1, m, n). are not new to the Bank, and the Bank's sector The fact that MDGs are multidimensional also strategies are consistent with them The Bank's means that they link to various sectors Each sector strategies are not narrowly focused on the sector is linked to more than one MDG, and themes of the MDGs only This is appropriate [W )0 ( ki@Q5g (i3 q 0 g3 1 D03 (:f t(D 1WV (G u, (D D )5) R@ ?91>0s So 1W@30 i( f3f:) 939(!3tS>CS &e(D lBXCD M 0_ 1(1 S - g7 (U =§) CD Millennium Development Goal ' -u L _ , Income Poverty and Hunger 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger x X X X X X X x x X Human Development 2 Achieve universal primary education i X x x x X x x x x x 3 Promote gender equality and empower women X x x x X X x x x x 4 Reducechildmortality X x x x X x X X x X 5 Improvematernalhealth X x x x X x x x x X 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases X x x x X x x x X x Environment and Social Development 7 Ensure environmental sustainability I x X X x x x X X X X Global Partnership 8 Develop a global partnership for development I x X X X X X x x x X Note Bold X = strong links, x = less strong links Sourcer Review of sectoral literature for ARDE 22 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Box 3.2 Income Poveity: Efficient transport systems are needed to sup- sidewalks) and reliable and affordable local public transport over port access to markets and economic growth, and recent stud- a wide area. The former is essential for access to primary ies show that transport has had powerful effects on reducing schools and health centers; the latter for timely availability of rural poverty. In urban areas, most slums have markedly inad- teachers and medical supplies and for access to secondary equate roads and paths, which raises the costs of access to ser- schools (especially for girls) and to hospitals. vices and participation in the broader economy. The transportation sector contributes directly to poverty reduction Environmental Sustainability: It is important to minimize the neg- by providing efficient operation, expansion, and maintenance of ative environmental side effects of transport, including the transport systems linked to places where poor people live. possible depletion of forest cover and reduction of biodiver- sity as a result of road construction, as well as the effects of Human Development: Primary and secondary education and carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutants from vehicle emis- mother and child health require safe local infrastructure (paths, sions. Source: Fan, Hazell, and Thorat 1999; Fan, Zhang, and Zhang 2000; Kwon 2001; DrOze and Kingdon 2001; OED 1996; World Bank 1996, 2000a. given that achieving MDG outcomes requires ac- and institutional frameworks for sustainable en- tion on several sectoral and subsectoral fronts vironmental management and that the Bank's sector strategies must be ap- plicable over a range of differing countries. The Sector strategies show increasing attention to Bank's education sector strategy-while consis- poverty linkages. tent with the Education for All (EFA) initiative, and Sector strategies-whether or not they have a therefore with the universal primary education specific MDG associated with them-show in- MDG-also covers postprimary education. If creasing attention to poverty linkages, a change countries are successful in achieving universal from earlier strategies in which such linkages primary education, there is likely to be increased were not always explicit. Although there is no demand for secondary education Similarly, the specific MDG for rural development, the Bank's Bank's urban strategy goes beyond the MDG tar- forthcoming strategy for rural development em- get of improving the lives of 100 million slum phasizes that agricultural growth is the primary dwellers by mcorporating broader measures aimed source of increased food production and the at poverty reduction and improved health out- cornerstone of rural development, which is itself comes In OED's Urban Review, it was noted that central to reducing poverty. The Bank's approach in addition to supporting the slum MDG target, to rural development has evolved toward greater the Bank's urban strategy supports the MDGs attention to food production as a vital ingredi- specifically in regard to reducing poverty and ent for reducing poverty and hunger (box 3 3) lowering infant mortality rates The Bank's energy The Bank's energy strategy emphasizes ac- strategy is consistent with the MDGs through its cess to clean household energy because it im- push for increased system efficiency and by seek- proves health and reduces poverty-for example, ing to improve access-for the poor as well as oth- by reclucing unhealthy fumes from open fires in ers-to convenient and efficient forms of energy closed spaces and by increasing productivity of The Bank's environment strategy addresses the home-based economic and educational activities environmental sustainability goal and takes a Compared with earlier private sector strategies, broad approach in recognizing the importance of the Bank's 2002 private sector development economic growth for poverty reduction and the strategy pays substantially more attention to inevitability of environmental change, and it high- poverty reduction as the overarching objective lights the need for supportive policy, regulatory, of the Bank Group's private sector activities 23 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Box 3.3 Rural Development: A Rebalancing Act The MDG emphasis on poverty reduction and the elimination of ficacy and efficiency of service delivery than on a direct wel- hunger lends weightto a current rethinking of rural development fare impact-to, in the 1990s, supporting reforms focused also by the Bank and other partners. The four decades between 1960 on poverty reduction through sustainable livelihoods (human de- and 2000 witnessed marked swings in the scope of rural de- velopment, environmental sustainability). The relative neglect velopment. The first shift was from heavy state involvement in throughout the 1980s and 1990s of the productive core of the rural agricultural production in the 1960s (green revolution technol- economy-agriculture-persists, and research and extension ogy, irrigation) to the all-encompassing but still state-led ap- investment are down. More stress on agricultural production, proach of integrated rural development programs of the 1970s. especially food production, is needed, without losing sight of The second shift was from the structural adjustment and priva- complementary human development and environmental goals. tization programs of the 1980s-with more emphasis on the ef- The Bank's strategy is now shifting in this direction. The strategy suggests two basic ways to support clarify how its gender policy is linkecl to the poverty reduction: Improve the investment cli- Bank's poverty-recluction mandate and to ex- mate to extend the reach of markets, thereby pro- plain the operational implications of Bank viding greater job and income opportunities for processes and practices. poor people, and use markets or market-type mechanisms to provide better basic services to For the most part, the Bank's sector strategies the poor. The Bank's financial sector strategy have provided limited guidance on how advocates greater economic efficiency and com- country programs can address unresolved petitiveness to create more opportunities for tensions and tradeoffs. the poor and more financial resources for social While the Bank's sector strategies tightly place the and other programs that benefit the poor. The MDGs alongside other sector goals in a broad strategy stresses reduction of financial sector development framework, the strategies do not vulnerabilities at both the global and national lev- usually demonstrate how tradeoffs should be ad- els (through, for example, the Financial Sector dressed in situations of limited financial resources Assessments Program, a joint undertaking with and institutional capacity. Greater guidance on the the International Monetary Fund) to reduce the relative emphasis to be given in different groups risks of financial sector crisis and economic of countries to specific subsectors and on the ap- volatility that hit the poor the hardest. The strat- propriate balance between access versus policy egy also seeks to help the poor more easily ancl and institutional strengthening would be helpful. cheaply obtain the financial services they most For example, the eclucation strategy's dual em- need (such as deposit taking, payment systems, phasis on universal primary eclucation, as well as credit, and insurance). on all levels of education, creates tension over the Some Bank strategies could benefit from allocation of resources. A key question in the stronger links to poverty reduction. For exam- water sector is whether the MDGs will lead to a ple, OED's 2002 review of the Bank's environ- focus on expanding coverage in the short term at mental policies and activities, covering the the expense of a focus on long-term sustainabil- period before the Bank's 2002 environmental ity, which would require institutional and policy strategy, found that links between poverty re- strengthening. There is currently no Bank strat- duction and environmental sustainability coulcl egy on water supply and sanitation. This lack will be strengthened by being made more explicit, be rectified by a water and sanitation business Similarly, OED's 2002 gender evaluation, also strategy, now under development. covering the period before the Bank's 2002 gen- Regional strategy papers have been used as der strategy, concluded that the Bank needed to building blocks for overall sector strategy. Basecd 2 4 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs on regional strategy papers, the health sector sustainability had not been integrated into the strategy has been adapted for countries with Bank's core objectives and CASs. In particular, no different income levels and types of health prob- clear linkages were forged among macroeco- lems, as shown in box 3.4. The importance of nomic policy, poverty reduction, and environ- varying the strategy to suit particular conditions mental sustainability However, in the wake of the is also illustrated by the gender strategy The 2002 Environment Strategy Paper, progress has Bank has focused on addressing gender issues been made in covering environmental concerns in countries where there is noticeable gender in CAS and PRSP processes. disparity in education enrollments or where women's health status is poor While these are Cross-sectoral linkages are increasingly appropriate entry points for Africa and South recognized in country programs, but Asia, they are less useful in regions with gender development of cross-sectoral strategies is gaps in economic opportunity rather than in still lacking. social services A more systematic analysis of The MDG focus on outcomes highlights the choices and tradeoffs in different groups of neecl for cross-sectoral strategies that address the countries could be helpful in such situations multiple determinants of these outcomes CASs The MDG indicator "share of women in wage are intended to be a key tool in organizing the employment in the nonagricultural sector" can objectives and instruments into a coherent strat- be expected to bring increased attention to egy and program. Although they are doing bet- women's economic opportunities. ter than in the past, the Country Assistance In the absence of adequate guidance on how Evaluations (CAEs) reveal that linking instru- priorities should be set or tradeoffs made, it is ments to objectives remains a weak ai-ea, par- not surprising that sector strategies are not fully ticularly when cross-sector links are involved reflected in country programs. For example, This Annual Review shows that even the CASs OED's 2002 review of the water resource strat- that do include specific targets for infant or ma- egy found that while some country-specific water ternal mortality lack a clear strategy for reach- strategies have been developed, they are sel- ing these goals-thereby missing a significant dom linkecd to Country Assistance Strategies opportunity offered by the CAS for tapping (CASs) or countiy pnorities To address this gap, cross-sectoral synergies. The Bank is increas- the 2002 water resource strategy highlighted ingly recognizing cross-sectoral linkages in its the need for strong country ownership and the sector programs (see, for example, box 3 5) development of country water resources man- This recognition has not yet translated into agement strategies. Similarly, OED's 2002 envi- cross-sectoral country strategies, however. Al- ronmental review revealed that environmental though truly integrated policy action can only Box 3.4 Tailoring the Health Sector Strategy to Regional Conditions The Bank's health strategy recognizes th'at needs vary by coun- health care reform to improve overall health systems operation try group-low or middle income-and shapRespriorities ac-- are emphasized. Country differences within a region are dis- cordingly. In low-income countries, red6cing infantfand child cussed in some regional strategy papers. For example, the East mortality, maternal mortality, and the transmission of commu- Asia Regional Health Strategy defines an assistance program for nicable diseases is stressed. For middle-income countries, ac- three country groupings and highlights countries that differ from curate targeting of the poor and addressing broader issues of the mean in mortality and morbidity among vulnerable groups. Source: World Bank 1997a. 25 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS emerge in national policy forums, greater cre- The Bank has a strong record on project atlvlty in Bank sector programs to maximize performance in several sectors, buta weaker complementarities would further enhance their record in others. relevance to the MDGs-and to the country As shown in figure 3.1, 80 percent or more of the strategies seeking to achieve them projects in several sectors had satisfactory out- comes (weighted by disbursements) This per- Better mechanisms to support sector strategy formance provides a strong platform to support implementation are needed. the MDGs Project performance was weaker in Implementation has been the weakest dimen- other sectors (figure 3 2) Figure 3 3 shows the sion of sector strategies and policies (OED performance of prolects that have priority 2001a) OED's 2001 gender evaluation disclosed themes (as identified by the Bank's new the- that the Bank had not established processes for matic codes) that match specific MDGs In the institutionalizing and operationalizing its gender education and health sectors, lending with an policy and had not organized systematic train- MDG-related priority theme does slightly better ing for its staff on the policy or provided ade- on outcomes than other lending in those sectors. quate support or tools for undertaking gender work for most of the 1990s Measures to im- Analytical work needs to be revitalized in plement gender equality, especially in second- several sectors and should more fully address ary and tertiary education, will require particular MDG-related issues. attention. In its forestry review, OED assessed In OED's 1999 health sector review, it called at- Bank performance in the light of the Bank's tention to the limited amount of economic and 1991 Forest Strategy and found that the Bank sector work (ESW) in the sector, recently con- had implemented the strategy only partially. Its firmed by an analysis undertaken by the Bank's ambitious goals were not matched by com- Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) De- mensurate means to implement the strategy partment The low levels of funding for ESW in OED's environment review found that the Bank's other sectors, especially the water supply and environment work lacked consistent manage- sanitation and transportation sectors, have also ment commitment and clear assignment of re- been previously noted in Bank and OED reports sponsibilities and accountabilities. Some recent Recently, ESW is receiving more attention in some sector strategy papers have used these lessons sectors. An example is health, for which analyti- to improve the mechanisms to support sector cal work has provided timely technical informa- strategy implementation tion on key topics for MDGs A recent piece of Box 3.5 Achieving targets in one sector requires contributions from tation, energy, transport, and housing) are key inputs into the many other sectors. For example, infant mortality is affected production functions for the poverty, education, health, and by access to safe water as well as by the mother's educa- gender equality MDGs. The CAS should address these in- tion and access to transport. Recent work by the Bank's Pri- tersectoral linkages. The study recommends that countries vate Sector and Infrastructure Network has summarized the develop intermediate targets and goals, develop customized evidence from the literature and has also provided some production functions for key objectives-region or country econometric estimates of inter-sector linkages for achiev- specific-and package multisectoral interventions around ing MDG targets. Infrastructure interventions (water, sani- key objectives. Source Leipziger, Fay, and Yepes forthcoming. 26 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Figure 3.1 1 Percent satisfactory outcome * FY97-99 exits (weighted by disbursements) o FYOO-02 (partial) exits 80 40 0 Education Financial Private Public sector Rural sector Transport Urban Bankwide sector. sector governance development average development a. Bankwide average for FYOO-02. Figure 3.2 Percent satisfactory outcome (weighted by disbursements) }FY97-99 exits 8 FY97-02 (partial) exits 80+17 + 40 0 Energy and Environment Economic Health, Social Water supply Bankwide mining policy nutrition, and protection and sanitation average population a. Bankwide average for FYOO-02. country-level ESW relevant to the health MDGs is ventions, including policy reforms. Future ESW Better Healtb Systems for India's Poor (World should also address distributional issues within Bank 2002pj. Education ESW in Africa, which in- countries-by region, income group, and eth- cludes work on sectorwide approaches and com- nicity-since there can be serious inequities in ac- munity participation, is relevant to key aspects of cess and quality across parts of the same country. the Education MDGs. But cross-sectoral ESW re- The Bank's education sector work in China, for mains inadequate. More ESW is necessary to ad- instance, acknowledges vast differences in pro- dress the challenges presented by MDGs, viding primary education in poor provinces rela- including gaining a better understanding of the tive to wealthier provinces (World Bank 1999b). multisectoral determinants of specific outcomes; Analysis by OED for the water supply and intermediate indicators to track performance; sanitation sector reveals that, to reach the water and the poverty-related effects of sectoral inter- target, Bank member countries will need sys- 27 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Figure 3.3 [. OD 63R ®WQIT fGj @Wj) Th GocDaow sgure~ ~~~~9 .? 3(StD 9S 0)0 3 qG i D Gei@) 00 0 D ( IL, C) laGO g 6 aQ)dG Percent satisfactory outcomes (weighted by disbursement) 100 90 80 70 60 - 50 EFA Education, Basic Health, except health except EFA basic health Note: EFA and basic health are matched with thematic codes. EFA = Education for All; Basic health = Child health, population, and reproductive health; fighting communicable diseases. Number of EFA projects = 120: basic health = 69. Outcomes are for FY97-02 (partial). Source: Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. tematic sector development plans or strategies. All (relevant to the eclucation MDGs) and en- Most countries lack plans that describe the pr-es- vironment projects are particularly sensitive to ent situation and analyze and identify policy the policy setting. These findings confirm that reforms, pinpoint priorities, and identify ap- economic reform and policy dialogue must con- propriate projects. The Bank is well placed to tinue to play an important role in the Bank's help prepare these sector development strate- programs. The Bank's proposed investment cli- gies, given its knowledge of worldwide best prac- mate surveys aimed at better understanding tices. In the past decade, about 90 pieces of ESW the linkages between the investment climate were prepared by the Blnk for the water supply and productivity and income growth, especially and sanitation sector, but only 10 percent fo- for the poor (World Bank 2002h), may be ex- cused on sector development. The appropriate pected to help identify improvements in coun- amount of resources for sector development try policies. strategies and ESW will need to be determined and made available. Monitoring and evaluation, including the use A country's policy environment has a strong of intermediate indicators, has not received influence on the success of all interventions, in- adequate attention. cluding those focused on the MDGs. Pt-ojects in Analytical work at the sector level can help iden- countries with weak policies and institutions (as tify the appropriate sector, project, and country- measured by low Country Policy and Institu- level inclicators that should be monitored. tional Assessment, or CPIA, scores) have con- Intermediate indicators provide realistic sistently worse outcomes than do those in other medium-term measures for monitoring progress countries. This is true even for MDG-related toward MDG outcomes. OED's 1999 health sec- projects, as shown in figure 3.4. Education for tor review pointed out severe deficiencies in 28 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Percent satisfactory outcome (weighted by disbursement) 100 - * Low CPIA o Medium CPIA o High CPIA 75- 50 H 25- Education for All Basic health Environment All sectors Note: Lending outcomes are for FY97-02 (partial) exits. Categories are defined by thematic codes. Environment (projects = 268) includes biodiversity; climate change; environmental poli- cies and institutions; land management; pollution management and environmental health; water resource management: other environment and natural resources management. See note to Figure 3.3 for education for All and basic health. Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. CPiA figures are from the OPCS database. monitoring and evaluation in the sector. Since be adapted, depending on the precise objectives then, there have been increased efforts to sup- and nature of the intervention and the country port the MDGs by identifying appropriate in- conditions. An examination of health projects ap- termediate indicators. A technical consultation proved in FYOO-02 for this Review showed that organized by the Bank led to a compilation of while recommended intermediate indicators a recommended group of core intermediate in- for achieving health MDGs in projects have been dicators for health (table 3.2). The precise in- utilized in some fashion, they have not yet been dicators chosen in a particular case may need to fully applied. ' Table 3.2 1X 3 '[ ) 0 a0 0Ud2 3L7 a(2IL OOi)(3U(3U< ) 8 *~~~~~~~~~~~ Do M(D 00( 0u 3 Go 3 2r(ir Millennium Development Health and Nutrition Targets Examples of intermediate or "proxy' indicators Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of * Prevalence of underweight children under five people who suffer from hunger * Proportion of infants under six months who are exclusively breastfed * Percent of children 6-59 months who received one dose of vitamin A in the past six months Target: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, * Proportion of one-year-old children immunized against measles the under-five mortality rate * Proportion of children with diarrhea in the past two weeks who received oral rehydration therapy * Proportion of children with fast or difficult breathing in the past two weeks who received an appropriate antibiotic Target: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, * Proportion of women with any antenatal care the maternal mortality ratio * Percentage of births with skilled birth attendant and/or institutional delivery * Contraceptive prevalence rate Source:.World Bank 2001a, which provides a complete list. 29 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Greater attention needs to be paid to devel- tainable access," there is no acceptecl definition oping or collecting data on appropriate per- of the term or way to measure it. The environ- formance indicators in some sectors. For example, mental MDG also poses measurement issues the Bank's financial sector strategy cloes not in- since it is not specifically defined and refers to clude any explicit performance measures to as- "integrating the principles of sustainable clevel- sess the impact of the Bank's interventions on the opment into country policies and programs," economic performance of countries or on leaving the level of integration and its intensity progress in improving the global financial and undefined. Furthermore, the slum MDG target trade system. OED's 1998 financial sector review is expressed in absolute rather than propor- presented a set of relevant indicators that should tional terms. This means that in a country with be among the options considered by the Sector a fast-growing population, steps must be taken Board. Similarly, performance indicators for mon- to stop slums from forming faster than existing itoring poverty reduction and social impacts re- slums are upgraded. Data are also scarce or un- quire greater attention in the transportation available on sanitation coverage (the first MDG sector. The Peru Seconcl Rural Roads Project is a indicator for the slum target) and on secure good example of design and implementation of tenure (the second such indicator). The Bank has monitoring (box 3.6). been involved with U.N. Habitat on urban indi- Some of the risks and challenges that ac- cators and is currently working on a major mul- company MDG performance monitoring are il- tilateral effort to clefine and operationalize the lustrated by the education, water, and urban secure tenure and slum welfare concepts. sectors. In the education sector, for example, the The Annual Review of Portfolio Perfor- MDG indicators focus on enrollment and com- mance (ARPP) 2002 (World Bank forthcoming pletion rates, which are likely to be meaningless b) notes that Adaptable Program Loans (APLs) without improved learning achievement. In the account for 18 percent of FY02 new investment water sector, reaching a common definition of lending and are "rapidly gaining in popularity." "safe water" has always been difficult where Strong monitoring and evaluation would be a much water comes from wells and rivers and prerequisite for APLs given their rationale of where many urban neighborhoods have access continual learning and adaptation. OED has to piped water for only a few hours each day noted a number of instances in which moni- While the MDGs include the concept of "sus- toring and evaluation have been weak in APLs. M o x 3 M onitoring Outcomes in the Peru ¶ iYlT Box 3.6 Rural i'oads Project The goal of the Peru Rural Road Rehabilitation and Mainte- with community participation, to describe the project compo- nance project was to provide a well-integrated and reliable nents and to monitor and report on their performance. The out- rural road system to supportthe government's poverty reduction come indicators were relevant to key MDG objectives and strategy and to raise living standards in rural areas. OED's per- included linking at least 80 percent of the communities in pro- formance assessment found that the project was highly satis- gram areas through reliable and affordable public transporta- factory, noting three p6verty-reducing outcomes: a small increase tion; generating 4,000 nonskilled permanent jobs through road in farmed land; a moderate increase in livestock ownership maintenance work contracted out to microenterprises; and en- and access to markets; and a large increase in farm prices in suring that 17,000 kilometers of rehabilitated road were avail- the beneficiary areas. Project monitoring was especially ef- able in the 12 poorest areas. All of the project's key objectives fective. The project team used a logical framework, developed were met or exceeded. Source OED data. 30 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Sector strategy papers recognize the velopment performance, there has been a steady multisectoral determinants of outcomes but increase in attention paid to development out- provide little guidance on how to develop puts, outcomes, and impacts.2 The MDGs' am- multisectoral strategies. bitious targets challenge existing practices in All sector strategy papers recognize the multi- performance management and measurement of sectoral determinants of outcomes. For example, development assistance at the corporate level. the education strategy describes some of the in- They also highlight the importance of country- tersector relationships in the social sectors (box level monitoring. At both the corporate and 3.7). And recognizing the thematic and cross- country levels, monitoring and evaluation have cutting nature of its mandate, the environment a role in helping to inform decisionmaking and strategy discusses environmental health risks to manage performance, as well as to establish arising from unsafe water, air pollution, trans- progress. port fuels, and traditional household biomass At the corporate level, while it is true that the energy sources. But OED's 1999 review of the Bank alone cannot be held accountable for health sector showed that little attention has achieving intended outcomes, managing per- been paid to the determinants of health, such as formance requires that the Bank track the extent behavioral change and cross-sectoral interven- to which its sector programs are contributing in tions outside the public health system. More- the direction of the agreed on goals. The Bank over, the lack of adequate coordination between is taking steps to improve performance meas- the Bank's country and sector units and among uring, monitoring, and management (Annex E sector units discourages cross-sectoral country lists these initiatives). The Operations Policy and strategies.I Ensuring such coordination has also Country Services Department (OPCS) notes that been a challenge for other donor agencies. while much of FY02 was devoted to planning the architecture for the Bank's shift to a results What Are the Implications for Future focus, the emphasis in FY03 is on detailed en- Bank Sector Programs? gineering and piloting, and in FY04 on opera- tional' mainstreaming. The Bank's FY03-05 Monitoring and evaluation of sectoral strategic documents do not yet indicate how re- outcomes needs more affention. sources will be deployed, redeployed, or en- In the wake of the Wapenhans report and sub- hanced in pursuit of these objectives. The sequent Bank reports on implementation and de- resource implications and the technical com- Box 3.7 Intersectoral Linkages in the Education Sector Strategy The relationships between societal conditions and the out- culture. The Bank's comparative advantage in this area is in its comes of education investments are complex: education out- work on school deworming and micronutrient programs and comes are heavily influenced by learners' income, health status, reproductive health education, including information on STDs and perceptions of labor market opportunities. The presence of and HIV infection prevention. Further links can be found in early HIV/AIDS affects the supply of teachers and often deternines par- child education and health services, parent education, and shel- ents' ability and willingness to pay for schooling. Education terand nutritionforthe poorestfamilies;teacherservice reform status also has an impact on the individual's future income, fer- and broader civil service reform; universal basic education and tility, and health. At the societal level, it affects institutions, the child labor; vocational training and labor market regulation; economy as a whole, and, in the long run, values, traditions, and and language of instruction and decentralization. Source: World Bank 1999a. 31 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS plexities of monitoring outcomes should not be level consistent with, and complementary to, underestimated Working with partners, such as monitoring at other levels Careful attention to the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and dealing with issues of aggregation and attribution Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in the educa- will be needed.3 tion sector, would be an option to consider Where partners support differing methods and Multisectoral strategies need to be developed approaches to monitoring and evaluation, con- to better reflect the multisectoral determinants sistency should be enhanced through harmo- of MDG outcomes. nization of policies and practices. By focusing on outcomes-as distinct from in- At the country level, the involvement of rele- puts and outputs-the MDGs draw attention to vant stakeholders in the definition, collection, and the multisectoral determinants that contribute analysis of data will be vital to ensure its subse- to outcomes The close relationship between quent use in local decisionmaking As noted ear- actions in one sector on outcomes in another has lier, such participation can also prevent clistortion already been well documented, and work is on- and manipulation of actions resulting from quan- going (for example, in the context of World De- titative targets, as illustrated by the Bank's in- velopment Report 2004 Making Services Work terventions geared toward slumii dwellers. MDG for the Poor). Although each sector strategy is indicators lack qualitative measures of well-being, relevant to achieving one or more of the MDGs, which are important for captunng key dimensions an important question is how they fit together. of development effectiveness (World Bank Multisectoral strategies do not necessarily 2002h) Therefore, the existing MDG indicators imply multisectorprojects. Some multisectoral will have to be supplemented by other meas- strategies may best be implemented through ures-for example, levels of client satisfaction single-sector operations, depending on the par- relating to economic and social services or learn- ticular sectors involved and the institutional set- ing achievement up that governs the coordination of inputs from Governments and donors, including the Bank, the various sectors The focus must therefore be often lackincentives tormeasure howtheyare per- on thinking multisectorally and acting either forming (Pritchett forthcoming). The Bank and sectorally or multisectorally, as conditions war- other donors must better understand the deci- rant. The experience of Bank-supported social sionmaking processes in client governments and fund projects provides some relevant lessons the existing demand for information on out- (box 3.8). comes and help create incentives where they Two recent initiatives involve joint work by are lacking. Similar work will also be needed in a number of sectoral groups The health, energy, donor agencies themselves. The 2002 ARPP notes environment, and gender sectors have jointly that while the corporate commitment to MDGs developed interventions to alleviate indoor air is very explicit, frontline staff still need to be en- pollution, which contributes to the health bur- gaged. It also notes that new incentives are not den of many poor rural communities, including yet in place, and that frontline staff feel some un- respiratoiy illness and associated deaths in chil- certainty as to how to integrate the MDGs into dren. Similarly, the water and health sectors country dialogues and operations: are they an and the Business Partners Outreach Group in add-on or a basic rethinking of priorities (World the Bank are collaborating on the hand wash- Bank forthcoming b)? ing initiative, which aims at promoting hand The types of indicators that are monitored- washing with soap in developing countries for at the project, sector, country, global, Bank, and diarrhea prevention. Launched by the U.S. other donor levels-will depend, inter alia, on Agency for International Development (USAID), program objectives, the nature of activities, and and now supported by the Bank in a number of data collection and analysis capacity. In devel- countries, the initiative is to create partner- oping the monitoring system, the full picture ships in which the private sector achieves bet- must be kept in mind, with monitoring at each ter market penetration in poorer households, 32 SECTOR PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs o xmOe(eQSe&ciq@ Sc~~W WY(wOUeY 1iD898[ [7lo4@ [EOSUtss UDesGsG¶e L Box 3 .8 Social fund projects are innovative projects, supported by the social fund projects have had neutral or very mildly progressive Bank since 1987. They offer communities a multisectoral menu household targeting, and their outcomes and welfare impacts- of investments (mainly comprising small-scale school build- forexample,academicachievementorincidenceofdiarrheaand ings, health clinics, water supply and sanitation investments, and wasting-have not always been better than the control group. roads) from which to choose. A recent OED evaluation found that Achieving outcomes and welfare impacts requires, inter alia, en- social fund projects have been highly effective in delivering suring an adequate and sustained supply of complementary in- small-scale infrastructure, and that this additional infrastructure puts (for example, teachers in schools, drugs in health clinics) has increased facility access and utilization. It also found that and related investments /such as water supply in health clinics). Source: OED 2002j; World Bank forthcoming c. ancl the public sector achieves improvements the education sector, for example, recurrent costs in hygiene programs. account for about two-thirds of the financing gap associated with Education for All (Bruns and Rako- The MDGs may have implications for the tomalala forthcoming). The recurrent costs of geographic and sectoral composition of Bank newly created services will need to be financed, lending. which could necessitate a review of donor poli- The Bank has a well-established system for allo- cies in this area. Sectorwide approaches with mul- cating lending resources across International tiple external financial partners maybe one option. Development Association (IDA) countries com- In countries with a PRSP, a sound public expen- mensurate with the quality of countries' policies diture framework, and appropriate transparency and performance. This system helps to ensure and governance standards in budgetary processes that scarce aid resources are delivered to the poor and execution (as well as a credible sector strat- countries that can use them most effectively, as re- egy that delivers results), donors have agreed to quired by the IDA donors. To the extent that the move beyond projects to directly support gov- MDGs-and related initiatives such as the fast ernments'overall approaclhes and strategies. They track programs in education and health (box 3.9) do so by channeling more of their resources and the Multisectoral AIDS Program for Africa through national budgets. But this is only begin- (MAP)-entail allocation or reallocation of lend- ning to happen. One example is Uganda, where ing resources among countries, each country's World Bank support to the education sector no likelihood of using the funds effectively must be longer comes through traditional education proj- taken into account as well as its distance from the ects, but instead through intensive dialogue on MDGs. Any implications for the Bank's geographic sector issues and overall budgetary support and sectoral allocation of resources resulting from (through a sectorwide approach). And in Brazil such initiatives should be systematically assessed ancd Ghana, donor support for the health sector and tradeoffs carefully considered. comes through a sectorwide approach in which Achieving and sustaining the MDGs will re- the Bank participates with other donors and fund- quire significant additional recurrent financing. In ing is pooled with the government's own budget. 33 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Box 3.9 Ye$ l? @C C?® SU tKJi S303Ujr@ At the World Education Forum on Education for All in Dakar, Sene- As proposed, fast tracking would identify two groups of coun- gal (April 2000), the Bank's president proposed a fast track ac- tries: Those where modest policy shifts, accompanied by major tion plan in which a select group of countries would lead the increases in domestic and donor financing, can lead to accel- way in achieving education for all before 2015. Eighteen coun- erated progress on the Health, Nutrition, and Population MDGs; tries are now involved, with an additional five countries part of and those with weak policy frameworks and limited capacity, the analytical fast track. The 18 countries are to prepare their where large infusions of additional funding will not result in rapid own country plans, to be assessed by the Bank and other part- progress on the MDGs. In the latter countries, nonfinancial bar- ners for technical and financial feasibility as well as the insti- riers hinder large-scale implementation, and alternative op- tutional capacity of the countries to carry them out The fast track tions for overcoming them would be considered. initiative aims at supporting countries with good policies, TherearestillquestionstobeansweredabouttheBank'sfast thereby giving incentives to countries that have notyet put good track initiatives, including what will happen to lending and policies in place to do so. Its indicative framework provides the other support in countries not selected forfast tracking, whether focus for domestic resource mobilization (up to 80 percent of re- the fast track initiative will ensure sustainable outcomes, and sources would have to come from domestic expenditure by which intermediate outcome indicators will be monitored to as- 2015) and donor support, as well as fiscal discipline. sess whether countries are on track. Given finite resources, if The health sector is contemplating a fast-track approach. Only the fast track countries and sectors receive more resources, other 10 of the 78 least-developed countries are on track to reach the countries and sectors may receive less. This will have impli- MOG of cutting child deaths by two-thirds; a more ambitious fast cations for the Bank's strategy and lending pipeline over the short track approach would seek to raise the number on track to 39. and the long run. Source Word Bank 2002c, and World Bank staff interviews. 34 I* - Global Programs and the MDGs It is increasingly importantfor the Bank to be active in the provision of global public goods vital to developing countries' interests. But it is also importantfor the Bank to be carefully selective in its criteria andpriorities, collaborative in its approach topublicgoodsproblems, and measured in its deployment of resourcesfor these purposes These are not easy challenges. -"Poverty Reduction and Global Public Goods: A Progress Report," Development Committee, 20011 It is increasingly obvious that many develop- MDGs, ranging from poverty, education, and ment problems require collective action at the health to environmental sustainability. global level to supplement traditional country The Bank's support for global programs is crys- and project-level approaches. This realization is tallized in goal 8 of the MDGs, which calls for reflected in the Bank's rising level of support for developing a global partnership for develop- global programs 2 Box 4 1 summarizes these pro- ment Consistent with goal 8, almost all global grams, which cover all eight MDGs This chap- programs involve global partnerships with ter examines how the Bank's global programs other international public sector organizations, have been addressing the MDGs and implications such as U N agencies, the Organisation for for future work. The main sources of evidence Economic Co-operation and Development for the chapter include recent OED reviews re- (OECD), bilateral donors, and regional devel- lated to global programs (OED 2001b, 2002f,m, opment banks 3 The most common reasons 2003, forthcoming). for these partnerships include the opportu- nity to pool financial and other resources to How Have the Bank's Global Programs achieve common objectives more effectively Addressed the MDGs? and efficiently, to realize economies of scale and scope in the production and delivery of All global programs broadly support MDG goal goods and services; and to capitalize on the 8, developing a global partnership for comparative advantages of the partners. For the development, and many also support other World Bank, leveraging its financial contribu- 35 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS tions is a key aspect of these partnerships, There is a lack of clarity about the institutional since the Bank's ability to give grants out of its roles of various partners. net income is limited Other partners value The Bank has played an important role in several the World Bank's global reach, its convening global programs and related activities A recent power, its multisectoral capacity, and its pro- OED review of aid coordination showed that the vision of a "seal of approval " development community hacl been well served More than a third of Bank-supportecl global by the leadership of the Bank in managing aid co- programs address health and environmental ordination processes (OED 2001b). Box 4 2 de- issues relating to MDGs 4 through 7 4 In acldi- scribes one of the oldest and one of the newest tion, some global programs address primary partnerships in which the Bank is involved education,5 and many programs have an ex- Sometimes, however, the Bank's institutional plicit focus on poverty reduction The Consul- role has been unclear and the Bank has played tative Group on International Agricultural multiple-and sometimes conflicting-roles Research (CGIAR), the oldest and largest global For example, in the CGLAR program, the Bank program supported by the Bank, has directly re- plays three major roles-as convener, donor, duced poverty by increasing production of sub- and lender for complementary activities. While sistence foods and furthering employment ancl the Bank's unique contribution to the CGIAR income generation And the CGIAR has had an has been widely acknowledged, its multiple indirect effect through reducing prices for food- roles have led to excessive dependence of the deficit households Another example of a global system on the Bank, assignment of a dispro- program is the Consultative Group to Assist portionate share of CGIAR management re- the Poorest (CGAP), a microfinance program sponsibility to a Bank vice president who chairs started in 1995 that is promoting sustainable fi- the CGIAR, and reporting arrangements fraught nancial services for the poor to help them build with real or perceived conflict of interest. It assets, increase income, and reduce vulnerability has been difficult for the Bank to acknowledge to economic stress 6 the need for, and to press for, major reforms Box 4.1 -Ii l DaXnl 9 The Bank is involved in 70 global programs (an increase from Environment, Rural, and Health Sectors Dominate fewer than 20 programs in 1991), 30 of which are managed in- Global Expenditures (FY01) Rural side the Bank and 40 elsewhere. In fiscal 2001, the Bank spent 29% about $30 million of its net administrative budget'on global pro- Health PREM grams. In the same period, it contributed $120 million from the 20 4% Development Grant Facility and disbursed about $500 million from Education 3% PSI Bank-administered trust funds (40 percent of trust fund dis- FSE % bursements). 1 %1 M Environment, rural development, and health were the top Social / ICT three sectors in overall program expenditures, including cofi- deveom -.2% nancing from other partners. %Social protection Environment 0% 34% FSE = financial sector, ICT= information and communications tech- nologies; PSI = private sector development and infrastructure; PREM = poverty reduction and economic management. Source: OED 2002m. Source: OED data. 3 6 GLOBAL PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs Box 4.2 Water and Sanitation Program to create the conditions needed to meet MDG goals for water The Water and Sanitation Program (WSP) is an international, supply and sanitation. field-based partnership dedicated to helping the poor gain sus- tained access to improved water supply and sanitation services. Cities Alliance One of the oldest external partnerships in the Bank, with staff The Cities Alliance, one of the newest external partnerships present in 19 countries, the program collaborates with many in the Bank, is a global coalition of cities and their develop- partners. Through its engagement with government clients and ment partners initiated by the Bank and U.N. Habitat, commit- partners and wide international efforts at knowledge man- ted to the development of citywide, sustainable programs of agement, advocacy, and promotion of new thinking, the WSP improving slums and to the creation of city strategies to cope has been able to help build capacity, support sector reform, and with future development. In part through the efforts of the demonstrate new approaches in both water supply and sani- Cities Alliance, the IDTs were expanded by the Millennium De- tation. Working closely with its partners, the WSP helped pro- claration to include the Cities Alliance's "Cities Without Slums' mote the sanitation agenda at the World Summit on Sustainable target of improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Development at Johannesburg in 2002. The WSP's work helps by 2020. Source: Water and Sanitation Program, http://www.wsp.org, Cities Alliance, hftpJ/www.citiesalliance.org whiile also making the case for continued fund- objectives of the program, and in their working ing. It is not surprising that the Bank has been procedures. more successful in uslig its convening power to raise additional resources for the system Complementary country-level investments and than in providing the strategic leadership coordination of activities on the ground are key needed to help the CGIAR respond to a rapidly to maximizing benefits from global programs. changing environmlent. Externalities, spillovers, and economies of scale While global programs provicle avenues for justify financial and other support for global donor coordination, the roles ancl responsibil- programs But this support will not yield full ben- ities of partners are often insufficiently spelled efits unless a country can access the new prod- out or not understood equally by all the partneis ucts and services being generated The share of The Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Ini- Bank lendlng to the environment, agriculture, tiative faces particular challenges in imple- and health sectors (about 20 percent of Bank menting shared responsibility (Box 4.3). The lending) is markedly less than expenditures on Integrated Framework for Trade-Related Tech- these three sectors at the global level (about 85 nical Assistance program has similar problems percent of global program expenditures) Coni- It is a partnership of 6 international agencies, plementary country-level activities are also in- some 15 bilateral donors, and the 49 officially adequate Some global programs are moving classified least-developed countries Its purpose into this vacuum at the country level by taking is to help these countries better integrate into on the deliveiy of country-level services. This ap- the world economy (including the multilateral proach is leading to the proliferation of coun- trading system) as a basis for sustainable growth try-level programs, each associated with a and poverty reduction. Lacking a secretariat, it dlifferent global program, rather than one co- is run by a large interagency working group ordinated effort in each sector Despite the group's frequent meetings, coor- OED's forthcoming review of seven global dination problems persist because of cliffer- programs relating to health research and dlis- ences in agencies' mandates, in their views of th-e ease control7 (part of its phase II global pro- 37 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS H I P C: Challenges ".._ Box 4.3 Shared Responsibility When the HIPC Initiative was launched in 1996, it was an un- the enforcement of the partnership. Although the sharehold- precedented partnership that united bilateral and multilateral ers of the Bank and the IMF endorsed the initiative, it re- creditors in an ambitious program of debt relief for some of mains a voluntary agreement lacking a legal basis for the world's poorest countries. The costs of providing debt enforcement. The broad consensus by donor countries on the relief to 34 countries is $37.2 billion in 2001 net present value principle of additionality (that is, debt relief should be in ad- terms, divided about equally between bilateral and multilat- dition to other development aid rather than a substitution) can- eral creditors. These shared costs, as well as the connection not be guaranteed. Creditor nonparticipation, especially by between debt relief and the availability of other develop- some commercial creditors and non-Paris Club bilaterals, also ment assistance, have raised several challenges related to remains an unresolved issue. Source: OED 2003. grams evaluation) shows that the growing num- "partners" who help to implement each pro- ber of global programs is imposing large trans- gram at the country level. While donors are actions costs on countries with weak health largely driving the agenda of global programs, systems. Government officials in developing they often seek World Bank involvement as a countries have questioned the proliferation of proxy for developing country involvement. Rel- global health programs, each with its own par- atively few global programs yet involve partner- allel institutional structures at the country level. ships at the governing level with developing This proliferation is straining public health sys- countries, civil society organizations, or the com- tems by adding long-term recurrent costs, by mercial private sector. diverting resources from existing programs, and Introduced by the developing countries at by increasing demands for health ministry staff the Millennium Summit, goal 8 seeks a broader to respond to calls for proposals from the many commitment of all partners-developing and global programs-particularly from the financ- developed-to the MDGs. The addition of goal ing entities, such as the Global Alliance for Vac- 8 marked a major change from the IDTs to the cines and Immunization and the newly created MDGs. Few global programs focus on global Global Fund to Fights AIDS, TB, and Malaria. public policy formation. So far, Bank-supported Country-level stakeholders have also asserted global programs have not had much influence on 3that there seems to be little effort at the global developed-country policies, either through ad- level to seek out and exploit synergies among the vocacy or other means. The Bank's advocacy health programs. There is substantial scope for role, especially on trade issues, has been ham- achieving the MDGs and increasing poverty re- pered in the past by inappropriate internal or- duction through better coordination of global ganization. Recently, new arrangements have programs and country-level activities. been put in place through the creation of a Trade Department. The Department's stated purpose The voice of developing countries needs to be is to improve the Bank's capacity to responcl to amplified in the management of global the growing demand for Bank services on trade programs as well as in global policymaking. and to scale up the work (including global ad- Developing countries have had little voice in vocacy) on trade-related development issues. the design, governance, and management of MDG goal 8 has created a strategic opportunity most global programs. Developing countries are for the Bank to amplify the voice of the poor in for the most part "participants" rather than full global policy debates. 38 GLOBAL PROGRAMS AND THE MDGs The proliferation of initiatives has strained the of recipient countries' expenditurcs on social ser- Bank's institutional capacity. vices. This attention to expenditures is not, how- The Bank's involvement in multiple global pro- ever, complemented by monitoring the program's grams has overtaxed its ability to keep track of impact on poverty reduction. The OED review of operational, budgetary, and fiduciary aspects of the Bank's grant programs noted that there were global programs, resulting in a lag in necessaiy gaps in evaluation reporting and dissemination and monitoring and evaluation of new activities In that no systematic evaluation regime existed for addition, growth of global programs and part- the grants program as a whole (OED 2002f) nerships has added to the tension arising from the Bank's "matrLx approach," since most of the What Are the Implications for Future global initiatives are located in the Network and Bank-Supported Global Programs? Sector Anchors Regional vice presidencies have sometimes seen the new initiatives as competi- Linkages between global and country tors (for resources and managerial attention) programs need to be tightened through and as a threat to the "country focus" of the improved selectivity and greater involvement Bank's work Although the oversight arrange- of borrowers. ments, resource allocation practices, and re- In phase I of OED's evaluation of global pro- porting processes have been strengthened grams, it was noted that there is no consensus during the past three years, more changes are among Bank member countries on the appro- needed. OED's evaluation of global programs priate blend of Bank-supported global pro- recommended that the Bank sharpen the crite- grams and country-level activity by the Bank na for selectivity, clarify responsibilities and ac- Some argue that increased global activity will be countabilities for global programs, and improve required either to enhance development monitoring and evaluation. effectiveness or to position the Bank to meet future challenges in a dynamic external envi- Global programs as a group are no better than ronment. In any event, a tightening of the link- other development efforts at monitoring and ages between global and country programs is evaluating the outcomes and impacts of their needed to maximize the benefits from both activities. Global programs have typically focused on mon- Monitoring and evaluation of global programs itoring grant amounts rather than on the out- need to be strengthened. comes resulting from the funded activities Even The main implication for evaluation is to provide the CGIAR, which has an impressive tradition of resoui-ces for and create the necessary incentives external assessments of its individual research to more systematically monitor and evaluate the programs, has conducted little independent eval- impacts of global programs than has been done uation of the system as a whole. Such evaluation in the past More attention should be paid to de- is needed to permit the Bank or the other donors veloping improved methodologies for evaluating to assess the CGIAR's system-level strategies, pri- global programs and partnerships Phase II of orities, allocation of resources, impacts, and the OED's evaluation of global programs is pio- views of CGIAR clients. The HIPC Imtiative provides neering new techniques and approaches in this for close and detailed monitoring and reporting regard and could point the way forward 39 Conclusions T he MDGs build on the Bank's corporate priorities and capabilities. The main themes embedded in the MDGs-poverty reduction, human de- velopment, environmental sustainability-had become priority areas for the Bank long before it officially endorsed the MDGs. Poverty reduction has been the Bank's overarcih- The MDGs offer the potential-backed ing objective since 1990, and the focus on eclu- by international support and common un- cation and health has been a main tenet of the derstanding-for the Bank to sharpen its "basic needs" approachi followed by the Bank focus on outcomes. Seizing this opportunity since the early 1970s. Slimilarly, the focus on gen- will require significantly increased action in three der and environmental sustainabtiity have been im- areas in whiich the Bank has already begun work. portant components of the Bank's strategy since * Monitoring and evaluation. By specifying the 1990s The Bank's country, sector, ancl global quantitative targets, the MDGs require sys- programs are broadly consistent with these tematic measurement of the outputs and out- themes. comes of clevelopment activities The Bank's The multiclimensional concept of poverty en- new initiatives to better monitor, measure, and dorsed by the MDGs and by the Bank repre- manage for results will be particularly helpful sents an advance over more traditional if they result in clearer and more specific ob- conceptions of poverty The MDGs emphiasize in- jectives and targets at the country, sector, and come as well as noni-income measures of well- global levels Clients would benefit from Bank being and draw attention to their multiple advice that helps them identify development determinants Mutually reinforcing interventions outcomes relevant to their country's circum- in a variety of sectors-inclucing those not ex- stances, select corresponding intermediate in- plicitly addressed by the MDGs-are vital to dicators to monitor progress on those achieving MDG outcomes Most Bank sector otitcomiles, and strengthen both the capacity to strategies have established links to poverty re- monitor and evaluate clevelopment ouitcomes duction and the MDGs, but the means to im- and the incentives to encourage such meas- plement sector strategies ancd monitor their urement. Learning can be sought in success, results remain weakly developed. but also in failure The monitoring process 41 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS should be designed to yield information that are not favored over more difficult and time-con- provides a sound and continuing basis for in- suming reforms, including those in country-level formed decisionmaking and learning. governance structures. The first step m better man- * Addressing intersectoral linkages. By fo- aging these nsks and challenges would be to sys- cusing on outcomes rather than inputs and tematically assess and understand the outputs, the MDGs draw attention to the multi- implications-at the corporate, country, sector, sectoral determinants of outcomes. The Bank's prolect, and global levels-of the MDGs. A deter- country and sector programs are increasingly mination can then be made about how pnorities recognizing the multisectoral determinants of are to be set, key choices made, and any resulting development outcomes. These Bank programs tensions and tradeoffs addressed More than two now need to take the next step of developing years after the Bank's endorsement of the MDGs, and implementing cross-sectoral strategies such efforts are only lust beginning in the Bank, es- Multisectoral strategies do not necessanly imply pecially at the sectoral (network) level. The Bank multisectorprojects Developing multisectoral needs to identify the implications of the MDGs strategies will require that the Bank's country and address them, including questions about the and sector units cooperate to design and im- allocation of lending and administrative resources plement outcome-based, cross-sectoral coun- A better definition of objectives and try strategies A more effective institutional targets-quantified and time bound-is mechanism is needed to foster the design and needed, especially in the Bank's country implementation of cross-sectoral strategies to programs. In the past few years, the objec- deliver specific development outcomes tives and strategies of the Bank's country pro- * Strengthening partnerships. The Bank has grams have increasingly focused on poverty entered into a large number of partnerships, reduction This focus can be greatly enhanced by notably for global programs relevant to achiev- more specificity in defining poverty reduction ing the MDGs. For these partnerships to deliver and other objectives The lack of quantified and better outcomes on the ground, the global time-bound objectives and targets makes prior- programs should capitalize on the comparative itization difficult and results in strategies that advantage of individual partners, link global are broad and general The global MDG targets programs to related country-level activities, must be localized. The tensions and tradeoffs- and situate them within the framework of a between sectors and subsectors; between geo- larger global strategy. Periodic re-evaluation of graphic regions; and among access, quality, and the relevance and impact of global programs policy and institutional issues-that will inevitably is needed to avoid inertia and the unintended arise given finite financial and institutional re- accretion of programs sources can most effectively be addressed at the country level. The Bank needs to develop more The adoption of the MDGs entails risks coherent Country Assistance Strategies grounded and challenges. The development community in specific objectives and national targets, and signed on to global targets before establishing based on a realistic assessment of capacity and clear methods for prioritizing them within and resources, and to monitor progress systematically among countries and before adapting them to The Bank's sector strategies-which nghtly place each country's circumstances. There is a danger that the MDGs alongside other sector goals and tar- the sectoral and geographic composition of assis- gets in a broader development framework- tance programs could be distorted if the appro- could greatly assist in this process They could priate goals and targets or the priority ranking do so by also providing guidance for groups of among them in different country circumstances is countries on how to address the tensions and not clearly established. The challenge is to ensure tradeoffs between the broad approach of the that easily monitored targets are not overempha- sector strategies and the specificity of the MDGs sized to the detnment of the qualitative dimensions Better analytical work could strengthen both of development and that quick, short-term gains the Bank's country and sector programs. 42 CONCLUSIONS More attention is needed to achieving such chaniges can be determinied only through and sustaining MDG outcomes The Bank a systematic analysis of the implications of the has endorsed the MDGs Achieving MDG out- MDGs. Assessing and addressing these implica- comes by 2015-and sustaining them beyond tions, including in the use of lending and ad- that date-will require a break from historical ministrative resources, should be a priority for trends in a number of countnes. "Business as the Bank usual" is unlikely to be a sufficient approach for The Bank's self-evaluation and independent either countries or donors The recurrent costs evaluation processes allows it to measure the suc- of newly created services will need to be fi- cess of development activities in meeting their nanced, which could necessitate a review of stated objectives The MDGs offer an opportu- donor policies in this area. Over the past few nity to sharpen the definition of program ob- years, the Bank has demonstrated steadily im- jectives, and thereby the focus and utility of proving project performance Now the Bank evaluation It is not too soon to begin adapting must increase its efforts to help clients achieve evaluation ctnteria and methods to determine the country-level improvements in economic well- extent to which Bank programs help countries being, human development, environmental sus- work toward poverty reduction, the first Mil- tainability, and other relevant development lennium Development Goal, and the other seven outcomes. Rising to the challenge of the MDGs goals as well The MDGs also place new de- will require continuity in some areas of Bank mands on client capacities for monitoring and work and increasecl emphasis in others, and may evaluation, including data collection, analysis, warrant changes and innovations in some Bank ancl utilization The Bank should demonstrate practices and programs The exact nature of tangible improvements in this area 43 APPENDIX APPENDIX: PROJECT PERFORMANCE RESULTS This Appendix presents long-term trends in proj- Performance Trends ect performance based on evaluations conducted by OED. In line with the focus of this year's Outcome ARDE, the AppencLx also assesses the perform- Exit year FY01 marks the second year of project ance of projects relatecd to specific MDGs using performance exceeding the Strategic Compact the Bank's new sector ancl themratic codes Target of 75 percent satisfactory outcomes 2 As figure A 2 illustrates, 77 percent of projects in the Composition of the ARDE 2002 FY01 cohort had satisfactory outcomes Coin- Exiting Cohort bining the FY02 (partial3) result with that for OED has evaluatecd 331 closed projects since FY01 exits results in a 79 percent satisfactory last year's ARDE, 81 percent of which exited the rating for the FYO1-02 (partial) exiting cohort Bank's portfolio cluring FY01 and FY02. These Overall performance weiglitecl by disbursement evaluations cover US$23 billion in nominal dis- decreasecd slightly from the previous perioc, bursements ancd consist of 276 evaluation sum- dropping from 80 to 78 percent satisfactory be- maries (ES) ancd 68 Project Performanice tween FY00 and FYO, and 79 percent for the Assessment Reports (PPARs) of completed proj- FYO1-02 (partial) exiting cohort. ects. This newly evaluated cohort inclucles 41 ad- The impr-ovement in project performance justment operations and 289 investmiient can be attributed to a number of factors Qual- operations, the vintage of which is given in fig- ity at entry ancl quality of supervision indicators ure A I continued the upward trend begun in the 1990s. Number of evaluated projects 60 50 - | | L C Adjustment 40 * Investment 30 20 F 10 0 Pre-1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Approval fiscal year Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002, OED database 2002 45 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS [@Q!)eq(D G 1D@D.223S CD!300[RX(( CgMOGGS(10g 9390C7StD@)bo SrSESt ?VQGgGl Percent satisfactory outcome 100 . .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 40 . .............................................................................................................................................................................................. -By project 20 - - Weighted by disbursement FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02* Partial Source: Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. Borrower performance4 has shown gains over the Regional Performance last two years. Improved project performance The Africa Region (AFR) continues to narrow may also be influenced by the reduced com- the outcome performance gap with other Re- plexity and riskiness5 of the FY02 (partial) exit- gions in the Bank, with 74 percent satisfactory ing portfolio. The level of complexity decreased outcomes for the FY0O-FY02 (partial) exiting for the first time in five years, while project risk- cohort compared with 65 percent for the iness dropped from 74 percent to 67 percent over FY97-99 exiting cohort (table A.3). As figure A.4 the last two exit years. The final results for both illustrates, the percentage of satisfactory out- FY01 and FY02 will depend on the performance comes by disbursements in the Middle East and of the remainder of the exiting portfolio. For North Africa (MNA), Latin America and the the FYO1-02 exit period, this amounts to 35 per- Caribbean (LCR), and South Asia (SAR) Regions cent of total disbursements. also improved for the FYO0-02 (partial) cohort compared with the FY97-99 cohort. The other Sustainability and Institutional Development Regions showed a small deterioration. The LCR Impact and East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Regions remain OED ratings of sustainaliity continue the upward the top performers for both cohorts. trend beginning in 1996, as demonstrated by figure A.3. Eighty-two percent of the FY01 exit- Sectoral Performance ing disbursements are rated "likely" or "highly Compared with FY97-99 exits, the outcome per- likely" to be resilient to future risks on the 4-point formance weighted by disbursement for the scale introduced by OED in July 2000 (this per- FYOO-02 (partial) exits improved in 7 of the 14 centage would have been 67 percent on the 3- Sector Boards-rural, education, global infor- poiot scale used by OED prior to July 2000). mation and communications technology, eco- Institutional development impact improved nomic policy, financial, private sector marginally over last year's levels, with half of the development, and transportation (table A.3, fig- lending in the FY01-02 (partial) exiting cohort ure A.5). The reasons for improvement and de- evaluated as having "substantial" or "high" insti- terioration differ from sector to sector. For tutional development impact. The improvement example, in the rural sector, increased attention in sustainability and marginal increase in insti- to community participation and knowledge shar- tutional development may be explained by the ing and the improved performance of irrigation gains in Bank and borrower performance. projects contributed to the larger proportion of 46 APPENDIX: PROJECT PERFORMANCE RESULTS Percent likely or better Percent substantial or better 100 4.p.e.rt.......t.. 100. . .......................... Sustainability @ Institutional Development 80- . ................................. ..................... .. .. .. ,. . . .... 80- . ....................... .. . . . .. ... .. . ... .. . .. . .. .. .. ' St By project - Weighted by disbursement 60 ..- ......... ..60 . ... ...............I...... ...... .......... 40-.3-point 40 -- ..... . ........ ... ..... by project 'scaFe Weighted by disbursement 20 20 . ... . . F FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02* FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02* Exit Fiscal Year Partial Note: In July 2000, the rating scale for the sustainability criterion was changed from a 3-point scale (likely, uncertain, unlikelyl to a 4-point scale (highly likely, likely, unlikely, highly un- likely), with the new scale available for projects exiting in FYO0-02 (Partial). Table A.2 and Table A.3 present the sustainability figures on the 3-point scale for FY97-99, and on the 4- point scale for FYO0-02 (partial). For reference, sustainability figures are also presented on the 3-point scale for FY0O-02' (partial). Source: Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~, 03, 0M (, 93 6Ao W& Zm z1Z 6 waOD ( D 1 I~~~~~~~~~ o-uoSS OD I,( DWD D' Region Distribution of disbursements by Region 4FY97-02*) Bankwide SAR = MNA _ LCR ECA _, EAP 14% AFR _NA__._______ 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent satisfactory outcome (weighted by disbursements) OFY97-99 exits ° FYOO-02* exits 0 Active portfolio "not at risk" *Partial, Source: Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. satisfactory outcomes overall in FY0O-02 (partial). Lending Instrument Performance In the health, nutrition, and population (HNP) The percentage of satisfactory outcomes by dis- sector, overall performance in FYOO-02 (partial) bursement for adjustment lending operations was adversely affected by the poor performance reached a record high for FY00 exits at 95 per- of a few large projects in two Regions. cent, but dipped to 71 percent for FY01 exits (fig- 47 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS F ig u re A .5 t = Sector Board Distribution of disbursements by Sector Board, FY97-02 (partial) Bankwvide average .m wss RS PSG 12% SP UD _6% 6 /% Tran_s 1Y PSD ___ _ 14 \ O i: HNP H - , 2% 1 0% GCI ________________________________________ E&M Edu FS . _ ! . 14% 8% Env E&M _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Edu EP 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent satisfactory outcome (weighted by disbursements) ElFY97-99 exits S FY0O-02 (partial) exits mActive portfolio "not at risk" Note The Sector Board classification is used rather than the sector or theme classifications because OED provides a single rating for the entire project rather than rating individual proj- ect components that cover particular sectors or themes The Sector Board classification applies to the whole project and enables outcomes to be matched to it EP = economic policy, Edu = education, E&M = energy and mining, Env = environment, FS = fiancial sector, GCI = global communications and information, HNP = health, nutrition, and population, PSD = pri- vate sector development, PSG = public sector development, RS = rural sector, SP = social protection, Tran = transport, UO = urban development, WSS = water supply and sanitation Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 ure A 6) Performance for FY01 was highly in- struments together had a 72 percent satisfac- fluenced by two jumbo loans to Russta (each tory outcome rating weighted by disbursement over $400 mtllton), accounting for 70 percent of unsatisfactory disbursemenits. Assessing Outcome Performance within The percentage of sattsfactory outcomes by the MDG Framework disbursement for investment lending operations The new sector and thematic coding system has improved consistently since FY00, after nearly adopted recently by the Bank identifies themes stagnant outcome performance dunng the 1990s that can be directly linked to five of the eight The performance of investment projects tm- MDGs and enables the assessment of sectoral proved from 77 to 80 percent satisfactory be- performance as it relates to them Under the new tween FY97-99 and FYOO-02 (partial) (table A 3) system, projects can be associated with up to five Ten Adaptable Program Loan (APL) projects themes identified as either "priority" or "sec- and Learning ancl Innovation Loan (LIL) projects ondary" The analysts in this section describes the were evaluated as of November 2002 Both in- performance of priority themes in eclucation, 48 APPENDIX: PROJECT PERFORMANCE RESULTS Figure A.6 a o EC QC 1G aZ Percent satisfactory outcome Percent satisfactory outcome 100 100 Investment 80 ' 80 60 60 Adjustment 40 - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40- 40 - By project 0By project - Weighted by disbursements 20 - Weighted by disbursements 20 II2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* Exit fiscal year *Partial. Source: Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002. health, and environment. The performance of in figure A.7, EFA lending was more successful these themes can be used as a proxy for progress than other types of education lending. toward the corresponding MDG goals, as indi- Of the EFA projects, the lending performance cated in table A.I. in the AFR and the MNA Regions was worse than the Bankwide average for FY97-02 (partial) exits. Achieving Ulniversal Primary Education The MNA Region has shown improvement for Education for All (EFA) was a priority theme in EFA projects, with the percentage of satisfactory 120 projects that exited the Bank's portfolio in outcomes increasing from 79 percent for FY97-99 FY97-02 (partial). The Education Sector Board exits to 100 percent for the two projects in the was responsible for 84 percent of all EFA projects, FYOO-02 (partial) exiting cohort; but the per- which also accounted for 89 percent of dis- formance of the AFR Region has stagnated in EFA bursements by the Sector Board. As illustrated projects at 66 percent. IereE..,.-. ............_- S0 3 0bt g, gX39 m [ E00 (9 (X3 9D ms'7k Table A. 1 b, VGGa ga MDG Bank's new thematic coding Achieve universal primary education Education for All Reduce child mortality Child health Improve maternal health Population and reproductive health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Fighting communicable diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Biodiversity Climate change Environmental policies and institutions Land management Pollution management and environmental health Water resource management Other environment and natural resources management 49 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS r Figure A. 7 VO(TGW)s UdD® L3 bG iW3Sd) Percent satisfactory outcomes (weighted by disbursement) 100 90 n=120 80 -j n=69 701 50 _ EFA Education, Basic Health, Environ- Bank- except Health except ment wide, EFA Basic except Health environment Note:The EFA, Basic Health, and environment categories are matched with thematic codes. EFA = Education for All: Basic Health includes child health, population and reproductive health, and fighting communicable diseases. Outcomes are for the FY97-02 (partial) cohort. Source: Busiress Warehouse, Word Bank 2002. Basic Health ments for FY97-02 (partial) exits. For environ- Basic health, defined in this Review as compris- ment, the percentage of satisfactory outcomes by ing child health, population and reproductive disbursements was 7 percentage points below the health, and fighting communicable diseases, was Bankwide average, as illustrated in figure A.7 Of a priority theme in more than half of the 96 the projects with the theme of environment, the health projects exiting the Bank's portfolio in lending performance in the AFR Region was FY97-02 (partial). The HNP Sector Board was re- worse than the Bankwide average for FY97-02 sponsible for 81 percent of Basic Health projects. (partial) exits. A higher percentage of Basic Health projects ex- iting in FYOO-02 (partial) had satisfactory out- Conclusions comes by disbursements relative to other health Results at the project level continue to meet projects. corporate targets. The impact of Bank assistance Of the Basic Health projects, the lending per- must now be scaled up to a higher plane-di- formance in the AFR and MNA Regions was worse rectly linked to country and global objectives. The than the Bankwide average for FY97-02 (par- MDGs offer the potential for the Bank to sharpen tial) exits. The MNA Region has shown no im- its focus on these goals and on clear indicators provement in lending performance, but the of progress. performance of the AFR Region improved be- The introduction of the new sector and the- tween FY97-99 and FYOO-02 (partial) exits. matic coding system has been a useful step and should be fine-tuned over time to incorporate les- Ensuring Environmental Sustainability sons emerging from its application and to relate Environment was a priority theme in 19 percent Bank performance to the MDGs and other relevant of all projects and 15 percent of total disburse- development priorities more directly and fully 50 ®QDoL i 0 a)@b Od 0 joO cefa®w 6 o aoOD -Exit FY97-99 Exit FY00-02a Active portfolio Sustaina- Sustainability bility likely or likely ID impact better ID impact Number or better, substan- Number substan- Number Projects of Outcome 3-point tial or of Outcome 4-point 3-point tial or of not at projects Share sat scaleb better projects Share sat scaled, scalee better projects Share risk Sector Board Economic Policy 64 g 8 67 50 25 22 3 77 85 77 41 45 3 80 Education 68 9 78 50 28 72 11 86 80 60 51 154 11 82 Energy and Mining 88 11 64 53 40 71 11 69 68 61 48 98 7 79 Environment 22 3 68 62 45 26 4- 77 84 77 54 83 6 80 Financial Sector 57 7 65 56 43 31 5 77 83 81 55 62 4 90 Global Information/Communications Technology 10 1 90 100 70 8 1 100 100 86 63 13 1 85 Health, Nutrition, and Population 44 6 70 52 30 53 8 65 63 48 35 135 9 81 Private Sector Development 36 5 72 60 31 35 5 65 70 59 41 72 5 81 Public Sector Governance 43 6 86 68 50 51 8 82 85 76 61 111 8 77 Rural Sector 148 19 66 45 35 107 16 73 60 41 44 215 15 87 Social Protection 44 6 84 41 43 39 6 87 72 50 41 105 8 78 Transport 67 9 86 64 64 76 12 92 B4 73 75 163 11 84 Urban Development 46 6 73 44 31 34 5 74 61 56 35 76 5 80 Water Supply and Sanitation 44 6 58 33 23 24 4 67 64 50 38 100 7 80 Lending type Adjustment 126 16 79 61 39 70 11 84 88 75 53 62 4 74 Investment 655 84 70 50 38 580 89 77 71 58 49 1,372 96 82 Network ESSD 170 22 66 47 37 134 21 74 65 49 46 309 22 85 FSE 57 7 65 56 43 31 5 77 83 81 55 62 4 90 HDN 156 20 78 48 33 163 25 80 73 54 43 383 27 80 ( Table continues on the following page.l Table A.2 t )()@BB [$UT@ caJLnta [UW@ 9r@a LE3U1S30 [Dy)J(3<5tx W®3@A CS Lx3UtL5 Exit FY97-99 Exit FYO0-028 Active portfolio Sustaina- Sustainabilityc bility likely or likely ID impact better ID impact Number or better, substan- Number substan- Number Projects of Outcome 3-point tial or of Outcome 4-point 3-point tial or of not at projects Share sat scaleb better projects Share sat scaled scalee better projects Share risk PREM 107 14 74 57 35 73 11 81 85 76 55 158 11 78 PSI j 291 37 72 53 42 246 38 77 73 63 53 522 36 81 Region Africa 230 29 58 34 31 171 26 68 58 44 40 367 26 78 EastAsia and Pacific 121 15 83 56 44 100 15 79 70 65 53 242 17 87 Europe and Central Asia 106 14 82 67 49 144 22 80 83 67 50 288 20 83 Latin America and Caribbean 168 22 79 62 43 125 19 82 81 70 58 294 21 83 Middle East and North Africa 58 7 66 52 28 45 7 77 76 53 50 114 8 73 South Asia 98 13 71 54 33 65 10 86 81 67 53 129 9 87 Income group Low 386 49 65 39 33 319 49 74 62 49 41 697 49 82 Lower middle 237 30 75 59 40 212 33 82 83 70 57 495 34 86 Upper middle 148 19 84 72 49 113 17 81 84 74 60 231 16 81 Total 781 100 72 52 38 650 100 77 73 60 49 1,434 100 82 Note Exit FY denotes the year in which the project leaves the World Banks active portfolio, normally at the end of disbursements ID = institutional development Percents exclude proiects not rated Active portfolio data reflect projects active as of November 12, 2002 a The data for FY02 exits represent a partial IBRD/IDA lendieg sample (132 out of 285) and reflects all OED protect evaluations through November 12, 2002 The processing of the remainder of the FY02 exits is ongoing, and it is expected to be completed by the end of FY03 b For FY97-99 exits evaluated after July 2000, both 3-point and 4-point scale ratings are available, but only the 3-point scale ratings are presented here c In July 2000, the rating scale for the sustainability criterion was changed from a 3-point scale (likely, uncertain, unhikely) to a 4-point scale (highly likely, likely. unlikely, highly unlikely), with the new scale available for projects exiting in FYO0-02 Ipartial) d FY00 exits evaluated before July 2000 were rated on the 3-point scale, and those evaluated after July 2000 were rated on the 4-point scale e The 3-point scale (which is to be phased out) is shown for comparative purposes Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 Income group designations are taken from the World Development Indicators 2001 ®G@wtiI isG0 W@L°dU Mio mZ@U°m DoUitOoOD aue Utn@D Exit FY97-99 Exit FY00-28 Active portfolio $ .. | --~---- . Sustaina- Sustainabilityc bility likely or likely *ID impact better ID impact Disburse or better, substan- Disburse substan- Disburse tProjects $ Outcome 3-point tial or $ Outcome 4-point 3-point tial or $ not at millions Share sat scaleb better millions Share sat scaled scalee better millions Share risk Sector Board Economic Policy 9,367 14 73 68 45 2,173 5 76 98 91 36 4,380 4 74 Education i 4,414 # 7 86 : 62 34 4,059 9 94 89 75 55 9,945 10 84 Energy and Mining 8,936 13 73 68 51 7,946 18 66 63 57 52 9,736 10 85 Environment 920 1 71 67 45 1,030 2 70 90 87 35 3,789 4 84 Financial Sector 12,230 18 82 76 47 3,043 7 83 94 93 62 5,333 5 96 Global Information/Communications Technology 630 1 94 100 86 738 2 100 100 98 69 299 0 75 Health, Nutrition, and Population 2,854 4 85 67 36 1,858 4 68 65 50 39 8,109 8 85 Private Sector Development 12,087 3 82: 71 . 41 2,080 5 84 84 72 63 2,360 2 78 Public Sector Governance 2,814 4 93 72 49 3,467 8 90 94 91 59 4,692 5 58 Rural Sector I 7,634 11 74 49 43 5,615 12 84 76 51 53 15,130 15 87 Social Protection 3,810 6 97 , 67 46 2,907 6 70 79 64 38 4,994 5 80 Transport 5,205 8 87 61 i 63, 7.050 16 93 93 81 78 19,166 19 85 Urban Development 2,843 4 89 65 31 1,608 4 83 72 67 29 5,484 5 84 Water Supply and Sanitation 2,984 4 62 22 18 1,615 4 57 56 52 26 6,579 7 83 Lending type Adjustment 27,075 41 85 75 46 11,898 26 83 92 83 53 11,070 11 74 Investment 39,654 59 77 57 44 33,295, 74 80 77 66 54 88,943 89 85 Network ESSD 8,554 :13 73 51 43.6,650 15 82 78 57 51 19.19419; 87 FSE 12,230 18 : 82 76 47 3,043 7 83 94 93 62 5,333 5, 96 HDN ! 11,078 17 89 65 39 8,763 19 81 81 66 46 22,774 23 83 i Table continues on the following page.) en_ Exit FY97-99 Exit FYOO-02a Active portfolio Sustaina- Sustainabilityc bility likely or likely ID impact better ID impact Disburse or better substan- Disburse substan- Disburse Projects S Outcome 3-point tial or $ Outcome 4-point 3-point tial or $ not at millions Share sat scaleb better millions Share sat scaled scalee better millions Share risk PREM 12,181 18 78 68 46 5,639 12 85 96 91 50 9,089 9 66 PSI 22,686 34 78 61 47 20,579 46 79 76 68 59 43,624 44 84 Region Africa 8,096 12 65 40 32 5,255 12 74 62 50 40 16,053 16 80 EastAsia and Pacific 1 20,305 30 92 73 52 10,284 23 85 80 76 66 24,868 25 91 Europe and Central Asia 8,841 13 70 72 47 9,941 22 69 83 69 48 16,221 16 81 Latin America and Caribbean 15,723 24 85 67 52 10,851 24 87 87 77 58 20,685 21 80 Middle East and North Africa 4,097 6 69 54 36 2,441 5 85 79 53 57 5,229 5 70 South Asia 9,668 14 73 61 31 6,422 14 84 85 75 47 16,957 17 88 Income group Low 23,463 35 74 46 34 16,535 37 80 71 60 45 42,537 43 85 Lower middle 18,632 28 75 67 49 17,121 38 75 85 74 56 32,890 33 88 Upper middle 24,432 37 90 80 52 11,293 25 90 90 81 65 24,199 24 80 Total 66,730 100 80 65 45 45,193 100 80 81 71 54 100,014 100 84 Note Exit FY denotes the year in which the project leaves the World Bank's active portfolio, normally at the end of disbursements ID = institutional development Percents exclude projects not rated Active portfolio data reflect projects active as of November 12, 2002 a The data for FY02 exits represent a partial IBRD/IDA lending sample (132 out of 285) and reflects all OED protect evaluations through November 12, 2002 The processing of the remainder of the FY02 exits is ongoing, and it is expected to be completed by the end of FY03 b For FY97-99 exits evaluated after July 2000, both 3-poiet and 4-point scale ratings are avaiiable, but only the 3-point scale ratings are presented here c In July 2000, the rating scale for the sustainability criterion was changed from a 3-point scale (likely, uncertain, unlikely) to a 4-point scale (highly likely, likely, unlikely, highly unlikely), with the new scale available for projects exiting in FY00-02 Ipartial) d FYOO exits evaluated before July 2000 were rated on the 3-point scale, and those evaluated after July 2000 were rated on the 4-point scale e The 3-point scale (which is to be phased outl is shown for comparative purposes Source Business Warehouse, World Bank 2002 Income group designations are taken from the World Development Indicators 2001 ANNEXES ANNEX A: MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, TARGETS, AND INDICATORS Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, 1 Proportion of population below $1 per day the proportion of people whose income 2 Poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth of is less than $1 per day poverty) 3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Target 2 Halve, between 1990 and 2015, 4. Prevalence of uncderweight children (under the proportion of people who suffer five years of age) from hunger 5 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Target 3. Ensure that, by 2015, children 6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be 7. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who able to complete a full course of reach grade 5 primary schooling. 8. Literacy rate of 15- to 24-year-olds Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Target 4 Eliminate gender disparity in 9. Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary primary and secondary education, and tertiary education preferably by 2005, and to all levels of 10 Ratio of literate females to males, 15- to 24- education by no later than 2015. year-olds ll. Share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sector 12. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Target 5. Reduce by two-thirds, 13 Under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, the under-five 14. Infant mortality rate mortality rate 15 Proportion of 1-year-old children immunized against measles Goal 5: Improve maternal health Target 6 Reduce by three-quarters, 16 Maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015, the maternal 17 Proportion of births attended by skillecl health mortality ratio personnel 55 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Target 7 Have halted by 2015, and begun 18 HIV prevalence among 15-to-24-year-old to reverse, the spread of HIV/AIDS pregnant women 19 Contraceptive prevalence rate 20 Number of children orphaned by HV`/AIDS Target 8 Have halted by 2015, and begun 21. Prevalence and death rates associated with to reverse, the incidence of malaria and malaria other major diseases 22 Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures 23 Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 24 Proportion of TB cases detected and cured under DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment Short Course) Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9 Integrate the principles of 25. Proportion of lancl area covered by forest sustainable development into country 26 Land area protected to maintain biological policies and programs and reverse the diversity loss of environmental resources 27. GDP per unit of energy use (as proxy for energy efficiency) 28 Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) [Plus two figures of global atmospheric pollution. ozone depletion and the accumula- tion of global warming gases] Target 10. Halve, by 2015, the proportion 29. Proportion of population with sustainable of people without sustainable access to access to an improved water source safe drinking water Target 11: By 2020, to have achieved a 30 Proportion of people with access to improved significant improvement in the lives of sanitation at least 100 million slum dwellers 31 Proportion of people with access to secure tenure [Urban/rural disaggregation of several of the above indicators may be relevant for monitor- ing improvement in the lives of slum dwellers] Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development Target 12 Develop further an open, rule- Some of the indicators listed below will be based, predictable. nondiscriminatory monitored separately for the least-cleveloped trading and financial system. countries, Africa, landlocked countries, and Includes a commitment to good small island developing states governance, development, and poverty Official Development Assistance reduction-both nationally and 32 Net ODA as percentage of DAC donors' GNI internationally. (targets of 0 7% in total and 0.15% for least- Target 13. Address the special needs developed countries) of the least-developed countries 33 Proportion of ODA to basic social services Includes tariff and quota free access (basic education, primary health care, 56 ANNEX A MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, TARGETS, AND INDICATORS for least-developed country exports, nutrition, safe water and sanitation) enhanced program of debt relief for HIPC 34 Proportion of ODA that is untied and cancellation of official bilateral debt, 35. Proportion of ODA for environment in small and more generous ODA for countries island developing states committed to povertv reduction 36 Proportion of ODA for transport sector in landlocked countries Target 14 Address the special needs of Market Access landlocked countries and small island 37 Proportion of exports (by value and excluding developing states (through arms) admitted free of duties and quotas Barbados Program and 22nd 38. Average tariffs and quotas on agricultural General Assembly provisions) products and textiles ancl clothing 39. Domestic and export agricultural subsidies in Target 15: Deal comprehensively with the OECD countries debt problems of developing countries 40 Proportion of ODA provided to help build through national and international trade capacity measures in order to make debt Debt Sustainability sustainable in the long term 41. Proportion of official bilateral HIPC debt cancelled 42 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services 43 Proportion of ODA provided as debt relief 44. Number of countries reaching HIPC decision and completion points Target 16: In cooperation with 45. Unemployment rate of 15-to-24-year-olds developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth Target 17 In cooperation with 46 Proportion of population with access to pharmaceutical companies, provide affordable essential drugs on a'sustainable access to affordable, essential drugs basis in developing countries Target 18. In cooperation with the 47. Telephone lines per 1,000 people private sector, make available the 48 Personal computers per 1,000 people benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications. Source World Bank Web site, http //sima/mdg IDecember 08, 2002) 57 ANNEX B: THE ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION OF THE MDGs AND IDTs The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) velop a Global Partnership for Development," are the result of the evolution of specific devel- was added, while goal 6 was changed from "Gen- opment objectives and targets regarding poverty, eral access to reproductive health services . in- hunger, education, health, gender, and sustain- cluding safe and reliable family planning methods" able development adopted by U N resolutions in the IDTs to a performance indicator under and conferences throughout the 1990s and, in the goal "Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other some cases, much earlier During the 1990s, the diseases" in the MDGs. Otherwise, close simi- Bank influenced the outcome of the various res- larities remained between the IDTs and the MDG olutions and conferences and was also influ- targets. Annex C compares them. enced by them.1 The MDGs were further refined in an intera- The first impulse for a consolidation and sys- gency meeting-with World Bank participation- tematization of the objectives came from the De- in June 2001 to establish more specific targets as velopment Assistance Committee (DAC) of the well as monitorable performance inclicators The OECD. In 1995, the Organisation for Economic Co- preliminary formulation compnsing the 8 goals as operation ancd Development (OECD) countries well as 18 targets and 48 performance indicators agreed to review past experience with develop- was published in the U N 's "Road Map Towards ment assistance and to prepare a blueprint for a the Implementation of the United Nations Mil- more effective program of development assis- lennium Declaration" (United Nations 2001a) of tance The DAC report, "Shaping the 21st Century September 2001 (Annex A provides a listing). The Contribution of Development Cooperation" These were subsequently i-eviewed and revised by (OECD 1996) was adopted in May 1996 and in- an interagency expert group, which met between cluded seven International Development Targets November 2001 and May 2002, and further mod- (IDTs) .2 ifications continue to be considered. In its im- The IDTs were perceived as a developed-coun- plementation plan, the 2002 Johannesburg try initiative. Consequently, the U N pushed for Summit on Sustainable Development, for exam- a fully participatory set of development objectives ple, agreed to halve by 2015 the proportion of that could be endorsed by both developing and people who do not have access to basic sanitation. developed countries The result was the 2000 Each of seven goals addresses an aspect of poverty Millennium Declaration and the MDGs The tran- The eighth goal is about a global partnership for sition from the IDTs to the MDGs and the com- development designed to help achieve the first promises required to achieve broader consensus seven goals As conceived by the Millennium De- led to some changes in the goals Goal 8, "De- claration, the eight goals are mutually reinforcing. 59 A ANNEX C: IDTs AND MDG TARGETS: NEARLY THE SAME' International Development Target (IDT) MDG Target Reduce the proportion of people living in Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the extreme poverty by half between 1990. proportion of people whose income is less and 2015. than $1 per day New Target Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Enroll all children in primaiy school by 2015. More Stringent Target Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling. Make progress toward gender equality and Eliminate gender disparity in primary and empowering women by eliminating gender secondary education, preferably by 2005, and disparities in primary and secondary to all levels of education no later than 2015 education by 2005 Reduce infant and child mortality rates by Reduce by two-thi-ds, between 1990 and 2015, two-thircls between 1990 and 2015 the under-five mortality rate. Reduce maternal mortality ratios by Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and three-quarters between 1990 and 2015. 2015, the maternal mortality ratio. Provide access for all who need reproductive Officially dropped from the MDGs, the UNFPA, health services by 2015 the World Bank, and other partners include access for all to reproductive health services goal as part of the maternal health MDG New Goal and Targets New Goal Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. New Target Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS New Target' Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases 61 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Implement national strategies for Integrate the principles of sustainable sustainable development by 2005 so as development into country policies and to reverse the loss of environmental programs and reverse the loss of resources by 2015 environmental resources New Target Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. New Target By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers New Goal and Targets New Goal Develop a Global Partnership for Development. New Targets Several (See Annex A for a listing) 62 ANNEX D: PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING SELECTED MDGs This Annex presents progress in achieving the long it would take a country to achieve the MDG global Millennium Development Goal (MDG) based on the percent change between the two targets by income grouping-low-income, low- points. Adjustments were made for the indica- middle-income, and upper-middle-income coun- tors based on levels. (Those close to the target tries. The source is the World Development were considered more likely to reach it, re- Indicators (WDI) database of October 2002. The gardless of past trends.) For the two indicators- calculations for all but two indicators (HlV/AIDS prevalence of HIV/AIDS (among young women and maternal mortality) are based on past trends 15-24) and maternal deaths per 100,000-data between two points, the earliest taken from the were available for only one year. In order to de- period 1990-94 and the other from 1995 to the termine progress, thresholds basecl on industry most recent year. Then it was determined how standards and research were used. Low-income Countries (65 countries; percent) MDG Likely Possible Unlikely Very unlikely No data Child malnutrition 8 11 5 22 55 Primary school completion 12 23 18 22 25 Gender equality in school 25 11 12 12 40 Child mortality 5 23 29 23 20 Maternal mortality 6 9 20 46 18 HIV/AIDS prevalence 15 11 15 29 29 Access to water 15 14 20 0 51 Low-Middle-Income Countries (52 countries; percent) MDG Likely Possible Unlikely Very unlikely No data , Child malnutrition 29 6 2 8 56 Primary school completion 42 17 10 4 27 Gender equality in school 60 12 4 2 23 Child mortality 31 29 15 10 15 Maternal mortality 19 31 10 0 40 HIV/AIDS prevalence 27 4 4 4 62 Access to water 19 10 6 0 65 63 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS Upper-Middle-Income Countries (36 countries; percent) MDG Likely Possible Unlikely Very unlikely < No data Child malnutrition 11 3 3 8 75 Primary school completion 44 11 6 0 39 Gender equality in school 78 3 0 0 19 Child mortality 31 36 8 3 22 Maternal mortality 47 14 6 0 33 HIV/AIDS prevalence 39 6 3 3 50 Access to water 6 3 8 0 83 Note Child malnutrition refers to the prevalence of malnutrition among children under age five, measured by weight for age Primary school comple- tion refers to percentage of children of appropriate age completing the last grade of official primary school Gender equality in school refers to the ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary and secondary school Child mortality refersto under-five child mortaiity Maternal mortality refers to maternal deaths per 100,000 live births HIV/AIDS prevalence refers to the prevalence of HIV/AIDS among young females (ages 15-24) Access to water refers to the percentage of the population with access to an improved water source 64 ANNEX E: BANK INITIATIVES AIMED AT BETTER MANAGING FOR RESULTS This Annex lists recent initiatives taken by the * Providing support to upgrade the collection, Bank to improve its results orientation. Two processing, and storage of data by national sources of information are used, "Poverty Re- statistical offices and sector ministries duction and The World Bank Progress in Fiscal * Through the PARIS21 Consortium, conducting Year 2002" (World Bank 2002h), and "Better regional meetinigs to initiate dialogue between Measuring, Monitoring, and Managing for De- information producers, decisionmakers, the velopment Results" (World Bank 2002a) media, and civil society and to prepare na- tional action development plans, conducting Source: "Poverty Reduction and The follow-up activities at the national level to im- World Bank: Progress in Fiscal Year 2002" plement the plans, and providing guidance on specific technical works. The Bank is helping countries to adopt results- * Through the Trust Fund for Statistical Capac- based strategies. Specifically, it is: ity Building, supporting 29 projects at the * Providing help to prepare, design, and imple- countiy level for improved collection, pro- ment Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers cessing, analysis, storage, clissemination, and (PRSPs) more effectively using the Bank-man- use of statistics aged Multi-donor Poverty Redcuction Strate- Through evaluation capacity development, gies Trust Fund. This includes a program of which entails strengthening government mon- learning events that cover a wide range of top- itoring and evaluation (M&E) systems, sup- ics-for example, monitoring and evaluation porting 21 country-level activities to strengthen systems, poverty and social impact analysis, in-country monitoring and evaluation capacity and analysis of growth strategies. Through the Worlcl Bank Institute (WBl), build- * Preparing and disseminating goocd practices ing client capacity for program and poverty with respect to the PRSP approach, it includes monitoring and evaluation. Since 1998, the a PRSP Sourcebook. WBI has provided on-demand distance learn- * Conducting research and analytical work to ing courses on program evaluation to clients understand "pro-poor" growth and to evalu- and joint client/staff groups in approximately ate the i-ole of sectoral ancl structural policy 40 countries In FY03, courses covering basic measures in achieving growth and poverty monitoring and evaluation methods have been reduction expanded to include issues of gender and * Planning to provide knowledge services and an- health. This program will expand to strengthen alytical support to develop domestic capacity M&E capacity in 12 focus countnes in addition, and put in place national monitoring systems WBI builds client capacity for poverty moni- * Increasing countries' knowledge and under- toring and evaluation, with particular atten- standing of the linkages between public ac- tion to PRSPs: in FY03, courses were offerecl in tions and poverry outcomes through poverty 4 countries. and social impact analysis of policy reforms * Conducting risk and vulnerability assessments and public expenditure management (RVAs), which includes a conceptual frame- 65 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS work to analvze the sources of vulnerability (20 * Developing cntena for satisfactory poverty analy- completed RVAs and 11 under preparation) sis in terms of timing, content, and methods * Conducting gender assessments, which lay out a framework for the Bank and the borrower coun- Source: "Better Measuring, Monitoring, try to analyze gender dimensions of develop- and Managing for Development Results" ment and identify gender-responsive policies and actions Planned Follow-up in Taking the Results * Through the empowerment and Poverty Re- Agenda Forward duction Sourcebook, helping to develop em- powerment strategies * Client capacity building: Especially PREM's work to support results-focused PRSPs and The Bank is also increasing its own results Joint Staff Assessments, Development Eco- orientation. Specifically, it is: nomics and Chief Economist, Development * Helping to align Country Assistance Strategies Data Group (DECDG)/Operations Policy and (CASs) to national poverty reduction strate- Country Services' (OPCS) work to support sta- gies (particularly PRSPs) tistical capacity building, and OPCS/PREM PuLb- * Monitoring the ex-post impact of CASs by the lic Sector Management Division's (PRMPS) Bank's Poverty Reduction Group of CASs work to help countries strengthen their mon- * Revising operational guidelines to strengthen itoring and evaluation capacity linkages between CASs and national poverty re- Knowledge accumulation and dissemi- duction strategies; ground Bank's strategy in nation: Development Economics, the net- country's poverty situation, and strengthen works, and WBI are working to ensure that the M&E approaches for CASs Bank's sectoral and thematic advice is up-to- * Strengthening arrangements to allocate Inter- date, practical, relevant, and readily accessi- national Development Association (IDA) re- ble to clients in a convenient and consistent sources to favor countries with good manner They also have been charged with de- performance records, as measured by the Coun- veloping a work program that reflects the in- try Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) creasingly multisectoral challenges that our * Helping sector interventions to better address clients face in pursuing the MDGs The World poverty reduction in low-income countries. Development Indicators will update MDG * Refining a new pilot methodology (developed data, and a United Nations-DEC Committee by the Quality Assurance Group, QAG), with under the chairmanship of the senior vice support from the Poverty Reduction Board) to president and chief economist, DEC, is re- help determine ways in which intetventions af- sponsible for tracking progress on MDGs fect poverty DEC, Human Development Network, and Re- * Conducting selective ex-post analysis of the gional staff are undertaking MDG country poverty impact of specific interventions and studies in sIx countries policies * Bank strategy and instruments: The focus * Rating a sample of analytical work (such as is on the results-based CAS-which is being poverty assessments, public expenditure re- piloted by the country teams for Brazil, Cam- views, financial accountability assessments, de- bodia, Cameroon, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine velopment policy reviews, and country OPCS staff are also working to see how best economic memoranda) and providing an as- to align the M&E framework for investment sessment of the poverty focus and adjustment lending with that of the CAS. * Revising operational guidance on poverty analy- * Staff learning and incentives: As the above sis to ensure that a satisfactory poverty analy- work is completed, it will need to be reflected sis is in place for all borrowers and that, when in staff training programs, along with the results it is not available, arrangements are developed of the ongoing OPCS and WBI review of cur- to carry out the analytical work rent offerings Meanwhile, the Human Re- 66 ANNEX E BANK INITITATIVES AIMED AT BETTER MANAGING FOR RESULTS sources department and the networks will be the Annual Report on Portfolho Performance looking into promotion and panel clearance cn- and Results, and the OPCS's work with Re- tena for their alignment with the results agenda. source Mobilization and other units to see Corporate reporting: Strategy Resource Man- how to strengthen the results measurement agement's work to see how best to reflect re- system under IDA13, in a way that is fully con- sults in corporate strategy and budget sistent with the emerging PRSP and CAS mon- documents, QAG's work to enhance the results itoring and evaluation frameworks and the focus of its assessments and to transform its ongoing measurement work of DECDG, QAG, Annual Report on Portfolzo Performnance into and Strategy Resource Management 67 I ANNEX F: METHODS AND DATA SOURCES This is OED's sixth Annual Review of Develop- pared in FY01-02 (until May) and had a CAE ment Effectiveness (ARDE) As in past years, the completecl in FY99-02. This criterion resultecl Review drew upon sources both within and out- in a less than the desirable number of large and sicle OED ancd the World Bank. The Review com- medium-size countries, and hence Bangladesh bined a meta-analysis with substantial primary and Turkey were adcled For all these countries, data collection. OED and Bank sources used in there were CASs in FY01-02 and at an earlier the Review are noted below time, so that changes in the focus of CASs on MDGs coulcd be compared. The 18 countries DED Sources were Argentina, Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Chile, Egypt, El Salvador, India, Indonesia, OED Country Assistance Evaluations (CAEs) Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Maldives, Mexico, Mo- All CAEs completed in FY99-02, amounting to 38 rocco, Russia, Turkey, Uganda, and Ukraine CAEs (OED has prepared a total of 53 CAEs since These CASs were distributed as follows Sub-Sa- 1995, when CAEs were initiatecl) haran Africa, 2, East Asia and Pacific, 1, South Asia, 3, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 4, Mid- OED Sector and Thematic Evaluations dle East and North Africa, 3; ancl Latin America OED's extensive number and range of sector and the Caribbean, 5 Other countries for which evaluations undertaken since 1998, including a full CAS was completed in FYO1-02 (but for those for environmental sustainability financial which no CAE was available) were Armenia, Be- sector, forestry, gender, global programs, health, larus, Belize, Chad, Djibouti, Latvia, Mauritania, partnerships and aid coordination, poverty as- Romania, Slovak Republic, Turkmenistan, and sessments, poverty reduction, rural develop- Uzbekistan. ment, rural poverty, social funds, urban development, and water. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) All 12 PRSPs completed to the end of FY02-the OED Project Evaluations PRSPs for Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mozam- Project Performance Assessment Reports and bique, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Bo- evaluation summaries for331 projects evaluatecl livia, Honduras, Nicaragua, Albania, and since the last Review, and more than 5,000 pre- Vietnam viously evaluated projects in OED's database Sector Strategy Papers (SSPs) World Bank Sources A large number of SSPs, including those for the education, health, rural development, trans- Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) portation, urban, energy, environment, water, Eighteen CASs-the main criterion for the private, and financial sectors. choice of these CASs was that they were pre- 69 ANNEX G: ACHIEVING DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES: AN OVERVIEW FROM THE CODE CHAIRPERSON The Committee on Development Effectiveness tomization of the MDGs to country priorities, (c) (CODE) met onJanuary 15, 2003 to discuss the reporting on the MDGs, poverty reduction, ancd 2002 Annual Review of Development Fffective- results ness (2002 ARDE) The 2002 ARDE assesses how the World Bank's country, sector, and global MDGs and the World Bank's Strategic Priorities programs assist developing countries to make The committee welcomed the focus of the report progress towards the Millennium Development on the importance of internalizing a results cul- Goals (MDGs) and related targets. The findings ture in the Bank's work, built around the results- overall incdicate that the Bank's country, sector, based CAS, integrating quantified time-bound and global programs are consistent with the goals and their measurement It also welcomed MDG themes A key message of the ARDE is that the ARDE finding that the Outcome ratings for the Bank needs to more fully assess the impli- project development outcomes remained clearly cations at the corporate, country, sector, and above the Strategic Compact level of 75 percent global levels of the MDGs, anci reflect these in The committee agreed with the ARDE's recom- its use of lending and administrative resources mendation on the need for the Bank to system- Management is in broad agreement with the atically assess and address the implications of overall recommendations of the ARDE, believes the MDGs for Bank procedures, lending and ad- that Bank goals and corporate priorities are ministrative resources beyond the broad direc- aligned with the MDGs, and is assessing its pro- tions represented in its strategic clocuments. grams for alignment Members also asked about the links between the The committee commended the report for CAS, country policy and institutional assessments providing a candid and strategic picture of the (CPIA) and allocation of IDA resources Man- Bank's portfolio The committee overall en- agement confirmed that the CPIA was a key fac- dorsed the main findings and recommendations tor in the lending allocation system and that of the ARDE Some of the main messages out of broadly speaking the MDGs would not affect tlils the committee's discussion were (a) the need resource allocation. It agreed with the commit- for caution in strictly applying the MDGs in guid- tee that the MDGs not be strictly applied as in- ing resource allocation in the Bank; (b) the im- puts in lending allocations and reaffirmed its portance of customizing the MDGs to country support for the Performance-Based Allocation priorities, and (c) the desirability of formal rec- System for IDA Management also confirmed ommendations in the ARDE and the need for that it would continue to support poorly per- management to report to CODE on the actions forming countries through the LICUS approach. taken in response to recommendations of the Some members added that more analysis on ARDE what specific actions the Bank was taking to as- sist countries in achieving the MDGs would have Issues strengthenied Management's response One The committee highlighted three broad sets of member noted the importance of harmoniza- strategic issues (a) how closely Bank resources tion between the IMF and the Bank in their sup- should be aligned to the MDGs; (b) the cus- port of borrowing country efforts to achieve the 71 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS MDGs. Some Directors also noted that the Bank's cussion of the various annual reports. Manage- lending program should reflect financial assis- ment noted that it would report back to the tance being provided to achieve the MDGs The Board on a unified proposal for poverty re- committee noted with concern the proliferation porting Many of the areas highlighted in the of global initiatives and supported the call for ARDE as in need of improvement were issues the more selectivity Management noted that it was committee had seen before. The committee continuing to focus on quality and protecting suggested that the ARDE recommendations be important fiduciary and safeguard standards while formalized to allow for an institutional follow strengthening capacitv of frontline staff up mechanism and asked that management re- port back to CODE on assurances that these is- Customizing the MDGs to Country Priorities sues were being followed up OED supported The committee supported using the MDGs as the proposal to formalize the recommendations broad development goal posts but cautioned of the ARDE where appropriate to the subject that they not be strictly applied in determining matter and that they be followed-up in the MAR lending allocations The committee agreed with The DGO also noted that there could be scope management and OED that the MDGs should be for outside reviews on a pilot basis of global localized, country-owned, and tailored to the programs that involve other partners One mem- circumstances of each country In this regard, ber highlighted the importance of the eighth country ownership and the necessarv country ca- MDG on a global partnership for development pacity for data collection were also stressed. and asked how it would be monitored. Other The committee also agreed with the ARDE's rec- members stressed that it would be important for ommendation for more results-oriented country the Bank to present a candid assessment of the assistance strategies (CASs) with time-bound, necessary resources required to achieve the quantified indicators Management noted that MDGs to avoid the risk of the Bank being later the results-based CASs being piloted would ad- held accountable for shortfalls and to offset cyn- dress this concern While recognizing the use- icism if the goals will not be attained Manage- fulness for the Bank to have intermediate ment agreed that the results agenda extends indicators in results-based CASs, concern was beyond the Bank to many other partners and that raised about client ownership and the risk of a country ownership was equally important Man- proliferation of donor indicators. agement informed the committee that it was working jointly with the IMF to prepare a paper Reporting on MDGs, Poverty Reduction and Results on joint Bank-Fund collaboration on monitoring The committee emphasized the importance of the actions and polices to achieve the MDGs, in- adopting a more strategic approach to its dis- cluding the issue of resources for development. Finn Jonck, Chairman 72 ANNEX G: ACHIEVING DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES: AN OVERVIEW FROM THE CODE CHAIRPERSON 14tz'S FROM THE BOA RD OF EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS: PSUMMARY The Executive Directors of the World Bank discussed OED's sistance program. Some speakers encouraged management to 2002AnnualReview of DevelopmentEffectiveness(ARDE) on Feb- make the Country Assistance Strategies more instrumental in the ruary 4,20M. A large number of speakers commended the report, poverty reduction strategies. which they described as useful, interesting, of high quality, and Other speakers noted the comment that the matrix organi- candid. They welcomed the ARDE's discussion of outcomes and zation did not seem naturally suited to produce coherent re- results orientation against the background of the MDGs. They sults at the country level. They added that coherence could only agreed on the need to assess fully the implications of the MDGs be achieved in consultation with the country, but that in line with for Bank resource allocation. They broadly supported the reports OED recommendations, it would be interesting for sector strate- conclusions and endorsed their recommendations. Some speak- gies to address more explicitly inter-sectoral complementarities ers were pleased to note management's agreement with most and tradeoffs. of the points raised by OED. A number of speakers welcomed the analysis of the Bank's A number of speakers noted that for the Bank, the country global programs in the 2002 ARDE. Some of them expressed level continues to constitute the unit of account. Therefore, the concern that global programs tended to compound the burdens MDGs should be tailored to reflect local country priorities. Some on partner countries and put further stress on the management speakers stressed the importance of getting a clearer comnmit- of the matrix system. They were also concerned by the lack ment from many of the developing countries on their agreement of clarity surrounding the Bank's role in global programs, the with the MDG approach. They welcomed management's inten- absence of a mechanism to exercise selectivity, the lack of tion to maintain the current focus on country performance and focus on results, and the weak linkage between global pro- poverty as the main drivers of lending allocations. grams and country priorities, leading to higher transaction Some speakers emphasized the need not to lose sight of the costs for countries. They agreed that the weak involvement of importance of broader policy issues outside of specific MDG developing countries in the design and implementation of goals, particularly a broad-based, private-sector-led growth global programs needed to be addressed. They urged man- agenda. Several speakers expressed concern about ARDE's agement to examine all of these issues and to address the re-, finding that strategies for poverty reduction proposed in Coun- maining weaknesses in managing, monitoring, and evaluating try Assistance Strategies were not always reflected in the as- global programs. Note:This summary by OED is based on the Corporate Secretariat's record of the ARDE Board discussion. 73 ENDNOTES Chapter 1 Africa, 3, and Latin America and the Caribbean, 5 1 For a cliscussion of this issue, see White forth- Other countries for which a full CAS was completed cominig Theory-based evaluation can provide useful in FYO1-02 (but for which no CAE was available) were guidance, as discussed in Weiss 1998 Armenia, Belarus, Belize, Chad, Dlibouti, Latvia, Mau- 2 Measuring country-level progress against global ritania, Romania, Slovak Republic, rurkmenistan, ancl MDG targets is an interinm step, pending the estab- Uzbekistan li',hment of localized, realistic targets for each country 5 All 12 PRSPs completecl to the end of FY02 were reviewect. They were PRSPs for Burkina Faso, Mauri- Chapter 2 tania, Mozambique, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, 1 The five corporate aclvocacy priorities are in- Bolivia, Honcluras, Nicaragua, Albania, and Vietnam vestment climate, public sector governance, em- 6 The Poverty Board's revised criteria to evaluate powerment, security, ancd social inclusion, education, CASs place increasecd emphasis on monitoring and and health The first two priorities fall under the pil- evaluation, adequate analysis of past interventions lar "building the climate for invcstment, jobs, and with the poor, and the expected effect of plannecd in- sustainable growth," ancl the latter three under "in- terventions vesting in poor people and empowering them to par- 7 Two counti-ies-Uganda and Burkina Faso-had ticipate in development " both a CAS ancl a PRSP In both cases, the PRSP pre- 2 S Devara)an, M J Miller, E V Swanson 2002b dated the CAS, yet the PRSP included many more note that what is needed to realize inter-national com- quantitative targets than did the corresponding CAS mitment to the MDGs is for all memilbers of the global 8 These are proportion of population below $1 community to accelerate their efforts for donors to (PPP) per clay, poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth increase financial aicl by $40-60 billion annually, for the of poverty), and share of poorest quintile in national 22 or so uphill countries to improve their policies consumption and institutions, and for the developed countries to 9 The review made a distinction between "eco- relax trade barriers and better coordinate aid nomic quality" (which included, for example, quality 3 OED has prepared 53 CAFs since 1995, when of the poverty pirofile, the policy analysis, and the CAEs were initiated All CAEs completed in FY99-02 policy recommendations, and the quality of the as- were reviewecl, amounting to 38 CAEs sessmnents coverage, with prioritization ancd selectiv- 4 Eighteen CASs were reviewed The main crite- ity adequately justified), and 'social, political, and non for the choice of the CASs was that they were pre- institutional quality" (which included, for example, a parecd in FYOI-02 (until May) and had a completecl multicimensional approach to poverty profiling, OED Country Assistance Evaluation (CAE) in FY99-02 sounclness of methodology for the qualitative or par- This criterion resulted in a less than the desirable tcipato-y work, and triangulation of quantitative and number of large and medium-size countries; hence qualitative analyses) (OED 1999c). Bangladesh and 'Turkey were addced For all these 10 Direct costs include client services (viz, coun- countries, there were CASs in FY01-02 and at an ear- try, sector and global, and other services), support ser- her time, so changes in the focus of CASs on MDGs vices (training received, financial, administrative, coutld be compared The 18 countries were Argentinia, corporate, ancl sustaining costs), and other services Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Clhile, Egypt, El Salvador, India, Indonesia,jamaica, Kazakhstan, Mal- Chapter 3 dives, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Turkey, Uganda, and 1 The Latin American and the Caribbean Region Ukraine These CASs were distributed as follows Sub- supports a model in which sector leaders are mem- Saharan Afnca, 2, East Asia Pacific, 1, South Asia, 3, East- hers of both the sector and count-y management ern Europe anci Central Asia, 4, Midcdle East and North teams. 75 2002 ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS 2 The explicit attention to development effec- 7 The seven programs are the Global Forum for tiveness in the Bank had its origin in 1992 Health Research, the Special Program for Research and 3 Aggregation refers to judcging the overall program Training in Tropical Diseases, Global Alliance for Vac- based on an assessment of the individual builcling cines and Immunization, Global Micronutrient Imi- blocks that make up the program Attribution refers tiative, Roll Back Malaria, Stop TB, and UNAIDS to identifying the impact of an agency's inputs. Appendix Chapter 4 1 For 13 closed projects, OED had both sources 1 The progress report was preparecl by Bank man- of information agement at the request of the Development Coni- 2 OED's measure of outcome considers three fac- mittee in its September 2000 communique, which tors relevance, efficacy, and efficiency established criteria for the Bank's involvement in the Relevance of objectives refers to the extent to provision of global public goods. which the project's objectives are consistent with the 2 The Development Committee communique of country's current development priorities and with September 2000 enclorsed four criteria to guilde the current Bank country and sectoral assistance strate- Bank's involvement in global programrs A clear value gies ancl corporate goals (expressec in PRSPs, CASs, aclded to the Bank's development objectives, the SSPs, Operational Policies) need for Bank action to catalvze other resources and Efficacy refers to the extent to which the project's partnerships, a significant comparative advantage for objectives were achieved, or are expectecl to be the Bank, and an emerging international consensus achieved, taking into account their relative impor- that global action is required The Bank's Strategic tance Framework Paper of 2001 identified, ancl FY03-05 EJficiency refers to the extent to which the proj- strategic clocuments reaffirmed, five global public ect achieved, or is expected to achieve, a return higher goocd pnorities for the Bank Communicable diseases, than the opportunity cost of capital and benefits at environmental commons, information and knowl- least cost compared to alternatives edge, tracle and integration, and international finan- 3 The FYO1-02 (partial data) cohort includes all OED cial architecture project evaluations through November 12, 2002 This 3 Developing countries are involved in the gov- includes partial coverage of FY01 and FY02 exits For ernance and management of only a few global pro- FY01 exits, Implementation Completion Reports for 16 grams Mostly they are viewecl as "participants" rather projects have not yet been received or evaluated by than as full "partners" with voting rights OED, representinig 22 percent of total disbursement 4 For example, Health the Medicines for Malaria For FY02 exits, 155 projects remain to be evaluated, rep- Venture, the Special Program for Research and Train- resenting 55 percent of total disbursements ing in Tropical Diseases, the Global Alliance for Vaccines 4 OED rates borrower performance on prepara- and Immunization, the International AIDS Vaccine Imi- tion, implementation, and compliance tiative, Roll Back Malaria, the Global Forum for Health 5 OED rates each project on its complexity and Research Environment the Global Environmental Fa- riskiness Complexity refers to such factors as the cility, the Water and Sanitation Program, and the En- range of policy and institutional improvements con- ergy Sector Management Assistance Program templated, the number of institutions involved, the 5 For example, the Partnerslhip for Child Devel- number of project components ancl their geographic opment, the Program for Education Statistics, the dispersion, and the numberofcofinanciers Riskiness Program for the Assessment of Studenit Achievement, refers to the likellhoocd that the project, as designed, World links for Development, and Focusing Resources would be expected to fail to meet relevant project ob- on Effective School Health Recently there has been jectives efficiently an increase in funcling for education through the De- velopment Grant Facility budget Annex B 6 The Bank is also supporting important regional 1 Worthy of special note is the Bank's 1990 World programs, such as the Nile Basin Initiative and the Development Report, which had a profound effect African Program for Onchocerciasis Control on the return of poverty redluctioni to the top of the 76 ENDNOTES developmcnt agenda Equally, the Bank was mucl in- Annex C fluenced by the U N conferences on gender, habitat, 1 The ID'ls and MDGs are continually being up- and the environment as well as the emphasis on datecd This Annex is based onl the original targets htliman clevelopment that inter alia came with the UNDP's H-lumnan Development Report 2 The IDTs are also called the International De- velopment Goals The term IDTs is used in this Annual Review 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY Ashley, C , and S. 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Washington, D.C.: World Bank 83 OED PUBLICATIONS Study Series 2002 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness-Achieving Development Outcomes The Millennium Challenge Agricultural Extension Thie Kenya Experience Agricultural Extensioni and Research Achievements and Problems in Nationatl Systems Bangladleshi Progress Through Partnership Bridging Troubled Waters Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy Debt Relief for the Poorest An OED Review of the HIPC Initiative Developing Towns and Cities l.essons from Brazil and the Philippines The Drive to Partnership Aid Coordiniation and the World Bank Financial Sector Reform A Review of World Bank Assistance Financing the Global Benerits of Forests The Bank's GEF Poi tfolio and thie 1991 Forest Strategy and Its Implementation Fiscal Management in Adjustment Lending IDAs Partnership for Poverty Reduction India T'he Challenges of Development India The Dairy Revolution Information Infrastrticture The World Bank Group's Experience Investing in Health Development Effectiveness in the Health, Nutrition, ancI Population Sector Lesotho Development in a Challenging Environment Mainstreaming Gender in Woril Bank Lending An Update The Next Ascent An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Nongovernmental Organizations in World Bank-Supported Prolects A Review Paddy Irrigation and Water Management in Southeast Asia Poland Country Assistance Review Partnership in a 'Iransition Economy Ploverty Reduction in the 1990s An Evaluation of Strategy and Plerfolmance Promoting Environmental Sustainability in Development Reforming Agriculture The World Bank Goes to Market Social Funds Assessing Effectiveness Uganda Policy, Participation, People The World Bank's Fxperience with Post-Conflict Reconstruction The World Bank's Forest Strategy Striking the Right Balance Zambia Country Assistance Review Thrning an Economy Arounid Evaluation Country Case Series Bosnia and l-lerzegovina Post-Conflict Reconstruction Brazil Forests in the Balance Challenges of Conservation with Development Cameroon Forest Sector Development in a Difficult Political Economy China From Afforestation to Poverty Alleviation and Natural Forest Management Costa Rica Forest Strategy and the Evolutioni of Land Use El Salvador Post-Conlict Reconstruction India Alleviating Poverty through Foresc Developnment Indonesia The Challenges of World Bank Involvement in Forests Uganda Post-Conflict Reconstruction Proceedings Global Public Policies and Programs Implications for Financing and Evaluation Lessons of Fiscal Adlustment Lesson from Urban l'ransport Evaluating the Gender Impact of World Blank Assistance Evaluation anid Development The Institutional Dimension ('Iransaction Publishers) evaluation and Poverty Reduction Monitoring & Evaluation Capacity Development in Aft ica Public Sector Performance-The Critical Role of Evaluation Multilingual Editions Allegenmen de la dole poor les plus pauvres Fxamen OED de I'tiilative l'PIE' Appr&ciation de lefficacite du dWveloppernent L'evaluatnon a la Aanque niondiale et ii la Soc&t6financulte internationale Determnnar la eficacia de las actadvdadcs do desarrollo L.a evaluaci6n ent cl Banco Miiidialy le Corpoiaci6on FIiaanciera Jnternacional Cote d'lvoire Revuo de l aid de la 13anqute ioiidialo az pays hilipinas Crisisy oporuiiiclacles Recontstruir a lhconomnia de Moqaiibique Co6eicmaiiec Pocctu a iiepexoae K piiio'ioiofi aitOsoMsiKe 6eciipeieacliiiian 3aasila htip //wwwworldhank ong/cied Jeannette Marie Smith 00803 ISN 3 MC Cv 'O' WASHi-.^TC- nC - ~~~~9L70821 354360 3 WW, _ 3 SC3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ P