Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Samik Adhikari, Sarang Chaudhary and Nkechi Linda Ekeator © 2021 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. Some rights reserved — This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank con- cerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions — This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. 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Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii Executive summary: Ten key takeaways from the report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction: The two faces of international migration in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Part A: Making the Case for More and Better Regulated Labor Migration from Nigeria . . . . . . 22 Country Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Labor Market Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Migratory Pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Assessing the Cost and Benefits of International Migration to Africa and Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 The Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Part B: Too Much or Not Enough? Trends and Patterns of International Migration from Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 International Migrants from Nigeria: The One Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Economic Development and International Migration from Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Case Study 1: The Edo Enigma: Understanding Irregular Migration from Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Remittances from Abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Insights on International Migrants from Nigeria in the OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Data Gaps and Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Part C: Missed Opportunities and the Way Forward: Institutional and Policy Assessment of Labor Migration Management Systems in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 International Migration as a Jobs Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Institutional Assessment of the Federal Overseas Employment System in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Stakeholder Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Case Study 2: Benchmarking Nigeria’s Federal Overseas Employment System to the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Areas for Policy Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 iii Boxes A1 Dramatic reductions in Nigeria’s active labor force since 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 B1 How has COVID-19 affected international migration and remittances in Nigeria? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 C1 Current Channels to Migrate Formally from Nigeria to Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Figures A1  Nigeria’s GDP per capita growth has stagnated since the economic recession of 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 A2  Nigeria’s children in 2020 will enter working-age to increase the number of youth (15-34) in the population by 73 million in 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 A3  Nigeria’s working age population is expected to increase by over 150 million between 2020 and 2050, the highest compared to peer countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 A4  Nigeria’s old age dependency ratio is expected to stay below 10 percent in 2050 compared to several high-income OECD countries where the population is ageing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 A5  The share of fully employed individuals in Nigeria’s active labor force has decreased below 2014 levels in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 A6  Nigeria’s labor force pyramid in 2020 shows that youth, females, and rural inhabitants have poorer labor market outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 A7  Unemployment rates have worsened since the 2014 recession, particularly for youth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 A8  A. Share of Nigerians by level of education completed in the active labor force, 2010-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 B. Unemployment rates by education level completed, 2010-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 A9  Compared to peer countries, the percentage of jobseekers who are unemployed for more than 2 years is the highest in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 A10  Nigeria’s youth rank unemployment as the most pressing concern facing the country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 A11 A. Percentage who would move permanent to another country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 B. Proportion of respondents considering emigrating to another country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33  C. Proportion of respondents who would move permanently to another country (Nigeria and regional peers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Number of first-time asylum seekers from Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016 and 2017 before A12  subsiding in 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 A13 Irregular migration costs far exceeds average monthly household income in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 A14  Most Europeans favor a degree of immigration, especially for skilled professionals who can plug key skills shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 A15  Share of Nigerians actively preparing to emigrate is higher in the higher income quintiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 B1  Despite the number of international migrants from Nigeria growing three-fold between 1990 and 2019, the share of international migrants in the population has remained largely constant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 B2  A. International migrants as a share of the population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46  B. The number of nurses and midwives trained by the NMCN has increased from 2015 to 2020 . . . . . . . . . . 46 B3  The share of female migrants among Nigeria’s international migrants has increased steadily between 1990 and 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 B4  The share of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria has drastically increased over the last two decades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 B5  Sub-Saharan Africa remains the primary destination of international migrants from Nigeria but the share of international migrants moving to Europe and North America has increased considerably . . . 48 B6  United States, United Kingdom, and Cameroon hosted the largest number of international migrants from Nigeria in 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 B7  The share of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers has increased substantially in the last decade with the majority of them staying within Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 B8  International Nigerian migrants who move outside of the continent move to countries with per capita income significantly higher than Nigeria’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 iv B9  The top 10 states where most household report receiving international remittances are all in the south . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 B10 Close to 14 percent of households in the highest consumption decile receive international remittances compared to less than 2 percent in the lowest three deciles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 B11 International remittances totaled nearly USD25 billion in 2019 amounting to around 5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 B12 Average cost of sending remittances to Nigeria has remained high, particularly from within Africa . . . . . . . 63 B13 A. Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 B. Inactivity Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 C1 Four stages of the Migration Life Cycle Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 C2 Despite being one of the earliest countries to have BLAs in place, Nigeria has lagged behind peer countries in the number of BLAs it has established with destination countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 C3 Among top 10 countries receiving highest remittances, the cost of sending remittances to Nigeria is the second highest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 C4 A diverse range of Nigerian stakeholders are involved in the labor migration management process at the Federal Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Tables B1 Correlates of international migration using receipt of international remittances as proxies show that household wealth, access to internet, achievement of tertiary education, and residence in Lagos, Oyo, and Edo states are positively associated with international migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 B2 Majority of Nigerian international migrants in the OECD have at least upper secondary level of education and are employed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 C1 Areas for policy consideration to improve the migration management framework in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 v Foreword The recent and unfolding COVID-19 crisis has taught us many valuable lessons. One of them is on the vital con- tributions that migrants make to our society. In destination countries, migrants constituted a substantial share of “essential workers” in many occupation categories, ranging from agriculture and food processing to healthcare and technology. In countries of origin, remittances sent by migrants were remarkably resilient despite the crisis – enabling family members back home to manage the crisis without resorting to negative coping mechanisms. Despite growing evidence on the economic benefits of migration, international migration remains a hotly debated topic. In Nigeria, the topic has received increasing attention and limelight due to the recent surge in irregular migration to Europe. To discourage irregular migration, several programs and policies have been put in place – including measures to strengthen border control and programs that raise awareness and discourage against taking dangerous journeys through the desert and the sea. While these initiatives are necessary, they need to be complemented with programs and systems that facilitate safe and orderly migration – of the kind outlined in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals - including through the implementation of well managed migra- tion policies. This report finds that Nigeria’s labor market has not kept pace with the increasing number of labor force entrants in recent years. Combined with rising aspirations of increasingly educated youth, there are continuing signs of migratory pressure in Nigeria’s economy. The recent rise in irregular migration from Nigeria is one manifestation of this problem. Together with steps taken to curb irregular migration, it is essential for countries such as Nigeria to improve their managed migration systems to enable youth to find overseas employment and to benefit from remittances as well as transfer of skills, technology, and investment. The findings presented in this report stems from a deep engagement with stakeholders in Nigeria and abroad and it is our hope that this exercise will support the Government of Nigeria in filling critical information gaps to aid migration policymaking. This report builds upon and draws from similar assessments of migration trends and systems conducted by the Bank in recent years in other regions around the globe. The Bank is increasingly active in policy dialog with client countries to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs from international labor migration. Lessons learnt from Nigeria through this exercise can help highlight policies that promote safe, remunerative, and cost-effective migration in other countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region and globally. Shubham Chaudhuri Dena Ringold Michal Rutkowski Country Director for Nigeria Regional Director for Human Global Director for Social Development, Africa West and Central Protection and Jobs vi Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team that was led by Samik Adhikari (Economist, HAWS3) and included Nkechi Linda Ekeator (Consultant, HAWS3) and Sarang Chaudhary (Consultant, HSPGE). The team worked under the overall supervision of Iffath Sharif (Practice Manager, HAWS3) and Shubham Chaudhuri (Country Director, AWCW2). Dhushyanth Raju (Lead Economist, HAWS3) and Foluso Okunmadewa (Lead Specialist HAWS3) pro- vided invaluable inputs throughout the preparation of the report. The team would also like to acknowledge the central roles played by Marco Hernandez (Lead Economist for Nigeria) and Tekabe Ayelew Belay (Practice Leader for Human Development) both of whom provided their valuable time and guidance. Additional authors on Part B of the report were Al-Mouksit Akim, Shreya Chatterjee and Chinedu Temple Obi. Prof. Aderanti Adepoju drafted a background paper as an input for Part C. The team is grateful for helpful consultations and deep engagements with officials of Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Labor and Employment, Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, the Office of the Vice President, the State Gov- ernment of Edo, the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Board of Technical Education and the Nigerian Labor Congress. The authors would like to thank the peer reviewers: David McKenzie and Mauro Testaverde. The team also bene- fited from helpful conversations with and comments from several World Bank and partner organization colleagues including Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick Rostom, Andrea Martin, Franz Jutta, Harish Natarajan, Helen Dempster, Ida Mboob, Jonathan William Lain, Manjula Luthria, Maria E. Davalos, Michael Clemens, Moritz Meyer, Mpumelelo Nxumalo, Nadege Desiree Yameogo, Olatunde Adetoyese Adekola, Quy-Toan Do, Gloria Aitalohi Joseph-Raji, Rebekah Smith, Supriyo De, Syud Amer Ahmed, Tara Vishwanath, Ubah Thomas Ubah, and Yevgeniya Shevchenko. The overall ASA under which this report was produced received generous support from the Korea World Bank Partnership Facility (KWPF) and the Rapid Social Response (RSR) trust funds. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments that they represent. vii Acronyms CBN Central Bank of Nigeria EC European Commission ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EUTF European Trust Fund for Africa FEC Federal Executive Council FDI Foreign Direct Investments FMLE Federal Ministry of Labor and Employment IDPs internally displaced persons ILMD International Labor Migration Desk IOM International Organization of Migration MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MRC Migrant Resource Centers N Naira NBS National Bureau of Statistics NHS National Health Service NiDCOM Nigerians in Diaspora Commission NIS Nigeria Immigration Service NLSS National Living Standard Survey NPLM National Policy on Labor Migration NPopC National Population Commission NMP National Migration Policy ODA Official Development Assistance OoVP Office of the Vice President OW WA Overseas Workers Welfare Administration PEAs Private Employment Agencies POEA Philippines Overseas Employment Administration SPAC Social Partner Advisory Committee TWC technical working committee TWG technical working group viii Executive summary: Ten key take- aways from the report1 1. Despite the topic of migration actors have put in place strong programs and mecha- receiving extensive limelight in nisms to strengthen border controls, raise awareness against irregular migration, and prioritize domestic recent years, little attention is job-creation programs to address the “root causes” of paid to policies that help Nigeria migration. realize the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals An example of such a program is the European Trust on facilitating safe, orderly, and Fund for Africa (EUTF) which was established in 2015 with the aim to promote areas of mutual development regular migration. interest between Europe and Africa. It has since pro- Nigeria is both Africa’s most populous country and vided more than €4 billion in aid to African countries its largest economy. Nigerians are not only creating a to address various development-related challenges vibrant and dynamic society within Nigeria but are also and priorities in Africa. One of the core objectives of leaving their footprint across the globe in diverse fields the programs supported by EUTF is to provide com- ranging from medicine to movies, and from literature prehensive migration management support to African to diplomacy. Nigeria is reaping dividends from the countries to stop the flow of irregular migrants to success of its diaspora. These benefits not only come Europe. Since its inception, the EUTF has provided in the form of remittances—which equaled 5 percent more than €770 million for migration-related proj- of Nigeria’s GDP in 2019—but also in the form of invest- ects in Nigeria. Most of these funds are invested in ments in Nigeria and transfer of skills and technology border control measures, awareness campaigns to from returning migrants. stop trafficking, and the creation of jobs domestically, including for returned Nigerian migrants. Yet, when it comes to the discourse on interna- tional migration, the narrative has often focused However, a critical category of program that is missing on the increase of irregular migration from Nigeria among the current set of measures are programs of in recent years. Harrowing images of Sub-Saha- the kind outlined in the United Nation’s Sustainable ran migrants, including from Nigeria, being sold as Development Goals that aim to complement efforts slaves in Libyan markets shook the globe in 2018. In to stop irregular migration by “facilitating orderly, response, both governmental and nongovernmental safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility 1.  All of the facts and figures that need citation in the executive summary are referenced in the equivalent sections in the main body of the report. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 1 of people, including through the implementation of underscoring the various stakeholders involved in planned and well managed migration policies.”2 the process, and underlining key gaps that are ham- pering Nigeria’s ability to enhance the benefits and By 2100, Europe’s working age population between reduce the costs from international migration. the ages of 20 and 64 is projected to decline by 30 percent, owing to low birth-rates and increased lon- gevity. At the same time, the working age-population 2. Nigeria is facing one of the in Nigeria is set to increase by 140 percent. Recogniz- most acute jobless crises in recent ing these demographic realities and an opportunity times. created by these labor shortages and surpluses, the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum sets a spe- Between 2014 and 2020, Nigeria’s working age popu- cific goal to promote more legal migration pathways lation grew from 102 million to 122 million, growing at between Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, including an average rate of approximately 3 percent per year. with Nigeria.3 Similarly, Nigeria’s active labor force population, i.e., those willing and able to work among the working age The main purpose of this report is to aid discussion population, grew from 73 million in 2014 to 90 million on creating new labor migration pathways for over- in 2018, adding 17.5 million new entrants to Nigeria’s seas employment of Nigerians. It aims to support the active labor force. Since 2018, however, the active Government of Nigeria in filling critical information labor force population has dramatically decreased gaps to comprehensively shed light on the issue of to around 70 million—lower than the level in 2014— international migration. Using available data from while the number of Nigerians who are in the work- secondary sources, it places international migration ing-age population but not active in the labor force within the broader labor market context in Nigeria, has increased from 29 million to 52 million between carefully stressing the push and pull factors that lead 2014 and 2020 (Figure ES.1). to both regular and irregular migration and makes the case for why more structured regular migration The expanding working-age population combined will be one of the crucial ways in which Nigeria can with scarce domestic employment opportunities is support education to work transition for young and creating high rates of unemployment, particularly for aspiring Nigerian jobseekers. Nigeria’s youth. Between 2010 and 2020, the unem- ployment rate rose five-fold, from 6.4 percent in The report synthesizes the available evidence to 2010 to 33.3 percent in 2020. The rise in unemploy- understand the stock and flows of international ment rates has been particularly acute since the 2015- migrants from Nigeria, major countries of destina- 2016 economic recession and has further worsened as tion, and key areas of vulnerabilities while identify- COVID-19 led to the worst recession in four decades ing gaps in evidence to inform decision-making. The in 2020 (Figure ES.2). Unemployment rate, defined final contribution of this report is that it comprehen- nationally as the percentage of the labor force pop- sively assesses the institutional framework govern- ulation who could not find at least 20 hours of work ing labor migration at the Federal level in Nigeria, in the reference period, was significantly higher for 2.  The SDGs’ central reference to migration is made in Target 10.7 to facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies, which appears under Goal 10 to reduce inequality within and among countries. SDG | Migration data portal: migrationdataportal.org/sdgs 3.  The European Union’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum was proposed on 23 September 2020 and covers areas of migration management including faster border procedures, better cooperation with third country on returns, and more legal pathways, among others. The pact along with supporting documents can be accessed at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1706 2 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure ES.1. Since 2014, the share of unemployed and inactive labor force among Nigeria’s working-age population has increased sharply 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Fully Employed Underemployed Unemployed Not in Labor Force Source: World Bank calculations based on data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Note: Fully employed includes individuals who were working 40 hours or more during the survey period. Underemployed includes individuals who were working between 20-39 hours. Unemployed includes individuals working less than 20 hours a week in the reference period. Figure ES.2. Unemployment rates in Nigeria have significantly worsened since the 2015-16 recession, particularly for youth Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Unemployment Rate - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - Youth (ILO Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (ILO Definition) Source: World Bank calculations using data from NBS. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 3 youth (42.5 percent) compared to non-youth (26.3 Nigeria accounts for 20 percent of the population of percent). Women are also particularly vulnerable in Sub-Saharan Africa and is projected to be the third Nigeria’s labor market. Compared to 46.4 percent of most populous country in the world by 2040, with male population who are fully employed, only 40.6 over 400 million inhabitants. The number of chil- percent of women are fully employed. The share of dren below the age of 15 outnumbers the number of fully employed is significantly lower in rural areas youths aged 15-34 in 2020, but as those children enter compared to urban areas. the working-age population, the number of youths aged 15-34 is set to increase from 68 million in 2020 Increasingly, educated Nigerians are struggling to to 141 million in 2020, significantly adding to the stock find employment opportunities in the country. While of working-age population in the future. In compar- unemployment rates have increased substantially for ison, several high-income OECD countries are facing Nigerians across all education levels over the years, it a rapidly ageing population. The old-age dependency has become progressively challenging for educated ratio, which measures the share of the population aged Nigerians to find employment opportunities. Between 65 and above in comparison to the working-age pop- 2010 and 2020, the unemployment rates for Nigeri- ulation, is set to increase by more than 20 percentage ans with secondary and post-secondary education points in countries such as Italy and by 10 percentage increased by more than 30 percentage points, prevent- points in Germany and Canada. In Nigeria and Sub-Sa- ing new educated entrants in the labor market from haran Africa, the old age dependency ratio is expected earning returns on human capital investment. to remain below 10 percent in the foreseeable future. While labor shortages caused by ageing in high-in- 3. Combined with significant come OECD countries, and labor surpluses caused by demographic changes and a demographic boom in Sub-Saharan Africa could lead to a scenario where some of the surplus labor from increased aspirations of the Nigeria could find employment in high-income OECD youth, Nigeria’s unemployment countries, this requires regular channels for Nigerians crisis is creating migratory to find overseas employment. However, since there has pressure in the economy. not been an expansion of legal migration routes for youth increasingly eager to find opportunities in the A combination of rising unemployment, booming overseas labor market, young Nigerians are opting for demographics, and unfulfilled aspirations is increas- irregular migration routes to realize their hopes for a ing the pressure on young Nigerians to migrate in better life. search of gainful employment overseas. Unemploy- ment is considered to be a key driver of migration. The number of first-time asylum seekers from Sub-Sa- Consequently, multiple surveys show that the number haran Africa and Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016, at of Nigerians who are looking to migrate internation- the height of the European migration crisis, before ally is high and increasing. The proportion keen to subsiding in late-2017 (Figure ES.3). Nigerians repre- leave permanently has increased from 36 percent in sented the largest group of migrants from Sub-Saha- 2014 to 52 percent in 2018, according to Gallup. Data ran Africa to arrive in Europe in 2016 and 2017. Nearly from Afro Barometer show that the desire to migrate 40,000 Nigerians arrived in Italy in 2016 with over is higher among unemployed (38 percent), youth (39 90 percent arriving via sea routes. A larger share of percent), secondary education graduates (39 percent), Nigerian migrants arriving to Italy were women (32 urban residents (41 percent) and post-secondary grad- percent) compared to migrants from the rest of SSA (24 uates (45 percent) in Nigeria. percent). Similarly, a larger share of Nigerian migrants 4 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure ES.3. The number of asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016 and 2017 before subsiding 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria Source: World Bank calculations based on data from EuroStat. had completed secondary education (39 percent) com- increasingly slightly from 0.5 percent in 1990 to 0.7 pared to migrants from the rest of SSA (21 percent), percent in 2019. which tallies well with the analysis of the domestic labor market that shows that educated youth in par- The recent rise in irregular migration notwithstand- ticular are suffering progressively worse employment ing, the share of international migrants in Nigeria’s outcomes in the country. population is much lower compared to the shares in Sub-Saharan Africa and globally. The share of inter- national migrants in the Sub-Saharan African popula- 4. Compared to other Sub- tion decreased from 3 percent in 1990 to 2.5 percent in Saharan African countries or 2019, but still remains significantly higher compared to Nigeria. Similarly, the share of international migrants when benchmarked globally, in the global population has increased steadily from the share of international 2.9 percent in 1990 to 3.5 percent in 2019 (Figure ES.4). migrants in Nigeria’s population Compared to Nigeria’s structural and regional peer is considerably smaller. What is countries, the percentage of international migrants worrying, however, is the increase from Nigeria is much lower compared to what the pop- ulation size would predict. in the number of forced and irregular migrants from Nigeria. An important trend that is observed in the data is the rise in the number of refugees and asylum seekers The number of international migrants from Nigeria from Nigeria. The share of refugees and asylum has increased threefold since 1990, growing from seekers from Nigeria has increased drastically in the 446,806 in 1990 to 1,438,331 in 2019. Despite this, the last decade, growing from 27,557 in 2010 to 408,078 share of international migrants as a proportion of in 2019. As a share of the international migrant stock, Nigeria’s population has remained largely constant, this represents a rise from 3 percent in 2010 to around Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 5 Figure ES.4. The share of international migrants compared to Nigeria’s population remains significantly lower compared to Sub-Saharan Africa and globally Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa World Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. Figure ES.5. The share of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria has drastically increased over the last two decades Percent 1,600,000 30 1,400,000 25 1,200,000 20 1,000,000 800,000 15 600,000 10 400,000 5 200,000 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 International Migrants from Nigeria Refugees and Asylum Seekers from Nigeria Share of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in the International Migrant Stock Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions and from UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics. This comparison is based on two different sets of data, sometimes drawn from different sources and using different methodologies. Hence, there are likely to be omissions and errors. 28 percent in 2019 (Figure ES.5).4 This increase in migration in the last decade. While the majority of the number of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers stay within the Nigeria coincides with the observed trend in irregular African continent, the share of refugees and asylum 4.  While refugees are included as part of the international migrant stock, the UNDESA data on international migrant stock does not have a categorization for refugees. This estimation is based on two different data sets that may not always be comparable in terms of definition and methodology used and is only meant to be used for indicative purposes. 6 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth seekers outside of Sub-Saharan Africa has increased In 1990, 60 percent of migrants from Nigeria moved steadily. Additionally, there were 2.1 internally dis- to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, compared placed persons (IDPs) in Nigeria in 2020. to 20 percent and 13 percent moving to countries in Europe and North America, respectively. In 2019, the share of Nigerian migrants moving to other countries 5. Albeit relatively small in in Sub-Saharan Africa remained large (42 percent) absolute numbers, increasingly but decreased substantially compared to 1990. On the other hand, in 2019, the share of Nigerian migrants more Nigerian migrants prefer to in Europe and North America increased to 31 percent migrate outside of the continent. and 22 percent, respectively. Most international migrants from Nigeria stay In 2019, approximately 85 percent of all international within Sub-Saharan Africa, but the share of inter- migrants from Nigeria were concentrated in 12 desti- national migrants to Europe and North America has nation countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and increased considerably since 1990. The number of North America.5 The United States, and the United Nigerian migrants has increased in all major desti- Kingdom, and Cameroon had the largest number of nation regions since 1990 (Figure ES.6). However, international migrants from Nigeria in 2019 (Figure the share of Nigerian migrants in the international ES.7). The United States and United Kingdom also saw migrant population has decreased in Sub-Saharan the largest growth in number of Nigerian migrants Africa and increased in Europe and North America. from 1990 to 2019. Figure ES.6. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the primary destination of international migrants from Nigeria but the share of international migrants moving to Europe and North America has increased considerably 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Other Regions Europe Northern America Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. 5.  Globally, two-third of all international migrants resided in just 20 countries, with the United States hosting 19 percent of the global international migrant population. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 7 The majority of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers Italy, Germany, and France being the three major des- stay within Sub-Saharan Africa. The number of Nige- tination countries. Similarly, North America hosted rian refugees and asylum seekers in Sub-Saharan 33,527 refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria in Africa has increased substantially in the last decade, 2019, with the United States and Canada accounting from 3,765 in 2010 to 285,599 in 2019. In fact, 93 for almost all of them. percent of the Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019 were found in two coun- tries—Cameroon and Niger. Both countries border 6. International migration in conflict-affected regions of northern Nigeria, while Nigeria is largely only accessible Niger is also known as a transit for irregular migrants to well-off Nigerians from from Nigeria and other countries in the region who attempt to reach Europe through Libya. southern states The number of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers International migration is more prevalent in relatively has also increased steadily in the last decade in prosperous southern states in Nigeria. The top 5 Nige- Europe and North America. Europe hosted 81,558 rian states with the highest proportion of households Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers in 2019, with having at least one family member as an international Figure ES.7. United States, United Kingdom, and Cameroon hosted the largest number of international migrants from Nigeria in 2019 United States of America 55,350 309,699 United Kingdom 45,984 205,698 Niger 38,319 130,982 Benin 15,728 86,226 Italy 11,859 80,235 Ghana 14,876 79,023 Cameroon 105,140 148,076 Canada 45,188 Germany 44,015 Spain 29,204 Togo 32,176 Côte d'Ivoire 44,791 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. 8 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth migrant in the last three years are all in the southern period was N236,000, which meant that the mean regions of Nigeria. It is not surprising that the rela- annual remittances amounted to around 6 percent of tively prosperous southern states report a significantly the mean annual consumption for households who higher proportion of households with international report receiving remittances from abroad. There is, migrants compared to the northern states. This is however, a significant degree of heterogeneity between because international migration is costly and requires states. For example, international remittances as a households to spend upfront capital that few house- share of household consumption was 70 percent in holds in the poorer regions of the country can afford. Katsina, 20 percent each in Edo and Akwa-Ibom, and negligible in most of the northern states. The top 10 states where the highest share of house- holds receive international remittances are all located The state-level data on receipt of remittances is well in the southern regions of Nigeria (Figure ES.8). corroborated by looking at receipt of remittances in Overall, around 4.2 percent of households report different consumption deciles. More than 13 percent receiving remittances from abroad, with this share of the households in the highest consumption decile much higher in the south compared to the north. Edo report receiving international remittances compared State in the southern region is a clear outlier with 25 to less than 3 percent each in the bottom four con- percent of households that report receiving remit- sumption deciles in 2018/19. In comparison, close to tances from abroad. 30 percent of households in the lowest consumption decile and more than 56 percent in the highest con- On average, the mean annual remittances for house- sumption decile report receiving remittances from holds that received cash and in-kind assistance from within Nigeria. What the state-level data also confirm abroad amounted to N13,746 in 2018-19. The average is the global evidence on the relationship between annual household consumption during the same migration and development, i.e., as places get richer, Figure ES.8. The top 10 states where most household report receiving international remittances are all in the South Mean Consumption/Remittances in Naira Share of households receiving remittances from abroad 500,000 30% 400,000 25% 20% 300,000 15% 200,000 10% 100,000 5% 0 0% Katsina Ekiti Cross River Plateau Rivers Jigawa FCT Sokoto Zamfara Kwara Taraba Edo Delta Kano Borno Bayelsa Kogi Enugu Niger Benue Kaduna Kebbi Lagos Yobe Ebonyi Nasarawa Anambra Imo Osun Abia Oyo Bauchi Ogun Adamawa Ondo Gombe Akwa Ibom Mean Remittances Mean Consumption Share of HHs received remittances from abroad Source: World Bank calculations based on the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS), 2019. Mean consumption is calculated for all households and is spatially and temporally adjusted. Mean remittances is calculated for those households that report receiving international remittances. Share of households receiving remittances from abroad is calculated as the percentages of households who report receiving either cash or in-kind remittances from abroad in the reference period. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 9 out-migration increases. As the poorer Nigerian states GDP.6 In 2019, however, remittances fell for the first time catch up to the richer ones in the future, international after increasing for five consecutive years (Figure ES.9). migration from Nigeria is likely to continue to increase. In 2020, remittances to Nigeria declined by 27 percent as a result of COVID-19 induced economic slowdown in destination countries as well other regulatory measures 7. Remittances from abroad implemented in the country.7 More than 46 percent of are important for Nigeria’s total remittances to Nigeria in 2017 were sent from just two destination countries, the United States and the development, but the cost of United Kingdom, which hosted about 35 percent of all sending remittances to Nigeria migrants from Nigeria. has remained stubbornly high. Despite the importance of remittances to the Nige- Remittances sent by Nigerian migrants totaled more rian economy, the cost of sending international remit- than US$25 billion in 2019, which made Nigeria the sixth tances to Nigeria has remained high over the last highest recipient of international remittances globally. decade. The cost of sending international remittances Remittances sent by international migrants have steadily to Nigeria from Africa, Europe, and North America increased over the last 15 years in Nigeria. In 2017, remit- is well above the SDG 17.3 target of 3 percent. More tances to Nigeria were almost four times larger than remarkably, costs are higher for intra-African corri- Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Official Develop- dors, presumably due to burdensome regulations, lack ment Assistance (ODA) combined and equaled Nigeria’s of competition, and low financial access. Reducing the oil rents contributing to nearly 6 percent of Nigeria’s cost of sending remittances to Nigeria directly benefits Figure ES.9. International remittances totaled nearly US$25 billion in 2019 amounting to around 5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP Personal remittances, received (current US$) Personal remittances, received (% of GDP) $30,000,000,000 9 8 $25,000,000,000 7 $20,000,000,000 6 5 $15,000,000,000 4 $10,000,000,000 3 2 $5,000,000,000 1 $- 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Personal remittances, received (current US$) Personal remittances, received (% of GDP) Source: World Bank’s World Development Indicators. 6.  ODA includes official foreign aid received. World Bank calculations using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators databank. 7.  World Bank. 2021. Migration and Remittances brief 34. Available at: https://www.knomad.org/publication/migration-and-development-brief-34 10 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Nigerian households as it provides more resources for further returns from migration and diaspora. The them to invest in their households and in the economy. National Migration Policy (NMP), adopted in 2015, pro- vides the overarching principles for the 2014 National Policy on Labor Migration (NPLM). The NMP empha- 8. There is an increased sizes the need for a national labor market assessment, recognition within Nigeria on regulates and monitors Private Employment Agencies (PEAs), and aims at placing a limit on the promotion of the need to better leverage overseas employment in sectors where excessive labor regular migration for economic migration is expected to adversely affect national eco- development as documented nomic and social development. by the increasing number of initiatives and stakeholders The draft National Policy on Diaspora Matters (2016) views the contributions from the diaspora as bi-di- working on this issue. rectional. From the government, the policy seeks Nigeria has made significant recent improvements to commitments to a set of identified challenges: data its managed migration framework and continues to management on the diaspora and remittances; the draw on the support of stakeholders for policy making inability of the diaspora to exercise voting rights in and implementation. Table ES.1 summarizes key Nigeria; national security concerns; high remittance national level policy documents in place to improve costs; inadequate infrastructure; agreements on the current managed migration framework and reap avoidance of double taxation; lack of framework for Table ES.1. Three policy documents have been drafted to improve migration management and leverage Nigerians in the diaspora Policy Document Recommendations for Improving Migration Management and Diaspora Issues National Labor Migration • Acknowledges the scant formal structure currently in place to aid prospective Nigerian Policy (2014) migrants, and attributes this lack of structure for migrants being poorly informed about the conditions governing entry, work, residence, skills required, cultural issues, and their rights and obligations in destination countries. • Calls for the establishment of an effective, responsive, and dynamic labor migration gov- ernance system that includes Bilateral Labor Agreements (BLAs) and Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) on labor migration that would deter risky and unsafe migration by pro- viding jobseekers with information about regular means of securing visas for work purposes in other parts of the world. National Migration Policy • Calls for mainstreaming of migration in Nigeria’s development process through its integration (2015) in the National Development Plan. • Outlines several innovative ways to design programs that attract foreign investments in Nigerian workforce development systems including determining the types of skills that Nigerian workers need in Nigeria and in other countries and by collaborating with the private sector in destination countries to provide continuous training of Nigerian workers. National Policy on Diaspora • Proposes initiatives to leverage the economic success of Nigerians in the diaspora and to Matters (2016) protect the well-being of Nigerian migrants, including by ○ reducing the cost of remittances, facilitating transfers of technology and knowledge back to Nigeria, ○ improving awareness regarding consular services available to Nigerian migrants, and ○ strengthening relevant institutions for proper coordination and administration on diaspora issues. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 11 the transfer of skills and technology, and a lack of inte- destination countries; help facilitate transfers of skills, gration frameworks for returnees. technology, and remittances to Nigeria; and coordinate efforts to support migrants in distress as well as upon Additionally, a diverse range of stakeholders (Figure ES. return to Nigeria. Various technical working groups 9) have the mandate to facilitate access to international (TWG) such as the Labor Migration Working Group, and destinations for prospective Nigerian jobseekers; assist the Migration Working Group offer platforms for stake- migrants in crossing necessary legal and administra- holders to come together, discuss issues, and propose tive hurdles before departure; support them while in actions to improve migration management framework. Figure ES.10. A diverse range of institutions and stakeholders participate in policy-making processes throughout the migration lifecycle Pre-Departure Post-Migration National Electronic Labor National Commission for Nigeria Immigration Service Exchange, International International Labor Refugees, Migrants and • Issues passports and relevant Labor Migration Desk Migration Desk – FMLE Internally Displaced travel documents • Acts as a labor intermediation • Ensures protection of Persons and National platform collecting employment and social rights Agency for the Prohibition Ministry of Foreign Affairs information on jobseekers of Nigerian workers abroad of Trafficking in Persons  • Negotiates Bilateral and international employers; • Coordinates efforts to  Agreements and Memoranda registers PEAs Nigerians in Diaspora receive returnee migrants of Understanding with Commission and reintegrate them into countries of destination National Board for Technical • Offers support to diasporas in the society Education – Federal Ministry need abroad Federal Ministry of Justice of Education • Helps facilitate transfers of Federal Ministry of Labor and Ministry of Interior • Helps ratify relevant • Provides skills training and skills, technology, and and Employment certification to potential investment from the diaspora • Provides employment international conventions migrants services to returning/ on migrants Central Bank of Nigeria repatriated migrants and National Agency for the Migrant Resource Centers, • Regulates banks and other  helps them integrate in Prohibition of Trafficking International Labor financial institutions; and Nigeria’s labor market in Persons Migration Desk governs the remittance of • Helps create awareness • Serves as a “one-stop shop” funds into Nigeria, including National Board for Technical against human trafficking where intending, actual, and determining the remittance Education – Federal Ministry returning migrants access commission/charge of Education Federal Ministry of Labor relevant migration • Equips institutions to and Employment information on legal, National Bureau of provide technical • Develops processes for the organized and humane Statistics and National accreditation of skills of registration and licensing of migration, rights and Population Commission returning migrants genuine Private Employment protection of migrants • Has the mandate to provide Agencies (PEAs) and update data on migrants Federal Ministry of Health abroad • Issues necessary medical certification to prospective migrants Pre-Decision During Migration Source: Based on World Bank consultations with Nigerian stakeholders 12 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 9. Most current programs, not necessarily all) migrants decide to return to Nigeria, however, are not geared towards either voluntarily or involuntarily, upon the end of the necessary legal permits to stay in destination countries. making use of safe, orderly, and regular channels that Each stage of the life-cycle framework has two aspects provide overseas employment related to policy making: (i) governance tools that can opportunities for youth. be used to set the terms of policies governing each stage; and (ii) programs, actions or services that the Using a four-stage migration life cycle framework government can perform to assist migrants at each (Figure ES.11), this report provides an assessment of stage. Figure ES.2 presents four governance related the Federal Overseas Employment System in Nigeria. tools and 15 key ingredients—actions that are at the The first stage is pre-decision when workers decide disposal of Nigerian policy makers at various stages of on whether to migrate based on the understanding of the migration cycle and are required for a well-func- the costs and benefits of migration. The second stage tioning labor migration system. Combined, policy- is pre-departure when workers who pursue the deci- makers can use these tools/actions to improve the sion to migrate obtain necessary legal documents, take facilitation of safe and orderly migration, prevent up measures to improve their employability (skills) and irregular migration, and support the return and awareness, and complete logistical preparations for re-integration of migrants. Table ES.2 presents as migration including obtaining the necessary finances overall assessment of the progress made to date in to secure migration. The third stage is during migration implementing programs and measures for each stage when migrants are employed in destination countries. of the migration life cycle and highlights emerging The fourth and final stage is post-return when some (but gaps that require attention. Figure ES.11. Four stages of the Migration Life Cycle Framework Pre-Decision Pre-departure During Migration Post-Migration Governance Governance Governance Governance • National Migration • National Migration • Bilateral Labor • National Migration Policy/Act Policy/Act • Agreements/MOUs • Policy/Act • Bilateral Labor • Bilateral Labor • Bilateral Social Security • Bilateral Labor • Agreements/MOUs • Agreements/MOUs Arrangements • Agreements/MOUs • Policy on Diaspora • Policy on Diaspora Services/Action Services/Action Matters Matters • Programs/actions • Travel/Visa to stop irregular documentation Services/Action Services/Action migration • Public/Private • Assistance and • Reintegration • Facilitation of labor Employment Representation through assistance through flows through Intermediation Services Labor Attaches health and social government-to- • Pre-departure orientation • Diaspora services and protection services government • Skills training/ networks • Information and agreements Certification • Portability of Benefits referral for wage • Health/Medical Screening • Remittance services and self-employment Production and dissemination of data on migration for evidence-based policy making Institutional coordination among stakeholders, including with stakeholders in countries of destination Source: Adapted from Cho and Majoka (2020) Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 13 Table ES.2. While Nigeria has made progress on multiple fronts to manage the labor migration process, significant gaps exist Migration Life Progress to Date Gaps Cycle Stage Pre-decision • Drafting of key documents, such as the National • Not a single Bilateral Labor Agreement (BLA) Labor Migration Policy (2014) and the National to leverage managed migration approaches to Migration Policy (2015) that emphasize the need provide overseas employment opportunities to for a national labor market assessment, regulates Nigerian youth. and monitors Private Employment Agencies (PEAs), • In comparison, Nigeria’s peers such as Philippines and aims at placing a limit on the promotion of has entered into close to 30 BLAs to place Filipinos overseas employment in sectors where excessive in overseas jobs. Countries such as Bangladesh and labor migration is expected to adversely affect Indonesia, which entered into their first BLA long national economic and social development. after Nigeria in the1980s now have three and five • Other legal enactments to prevent irregular migra- times the number of BLAs compared to Nigeria. tion, such as The Trafficking in Persons (Prohibition) Law (Enforcement and Administration) Act 2003; the Immigration Act 1963, amended in 2015, and the Immigration Regulations 1963. Pre-departure • The establishment of three Migrant Resource • Suspension of international labor migration activ- Centers (MRCs) – in Abuja, Lagos, and Benin City – ities in 2018 by relevant authorities because of where jobseekers, potential migrants, and returnee the country’s inability to deal with allegations of migrants can obtain information on employment maltreatment being meted out to Nigerian labor and skills enhancement. migrants in destination countries. • The licensing and monitoring of Private • No oversight on PEAs who can conclude agree- Employment Agencies (PEAs) recruiting for domes- ments with foreign employment agencies on the tic and overseas job placements, in order to prevent placement of successful job seekers in destination irregular migration, human trafficking, and unfair countries without recourse to FMLE. labor practices, and to forestall abuse in the recruit- ment process. • Creation of a jobs-matching platform known as ‘NELEX’ – the National Electronic Labor Exchange – through which job seekers were meant to be matched with existing local or overseas job opportunities. During • The establishment of NiDCOM in 2018 offers a • No labor attachés to Nigerian diplomatic missions Migration suitable platform to galvanize support for Nigerian abroad to promote welfare of Nigerian migrants, migrants in distress through diaspora networks in there have been no progress on advancing these the absence of formal labor attachés. discussions. • In 2017, Nigeria issued its first Diaspora Bond • High cost of sending remittances to Nigeria. Among in the international capital market, which was the top 10 countries which received highest remit- oversubscribed by 130 percent, raising the sum of tances in 2017, Nigeria is only second to China in $300 million at coupon rate of 5.625 per cent for a terms of the average transaction cost of sending tenor of five years. Issuance of the second diaspora remittances. bond is currently being discussed to raise further resources from Nigerian diaspora abroad. 14 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Table ES.2. Cont. Migration Life Progress to Date Gaps Cycle Stage Post-return • More than 770 million euros have been invested • Returning migrants need to be better equipped in migration related projects in Nigeria, through with information and referral on services available the European Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) project in Nigeria (such as applying for business loan, financed by the European Commission (EC). investing options in Nigeria, getting accredited for skills, searching for jobs). • Most of these funds are invested in border control measures, in awareness campaigns to stop traffick- • Better health and social protection services should ing, and to create jobs domestically, including for be provided to returning migrants who are often returned Nigerian migrants. victim of abuses and face stigmatization for their failed migration attempt upon return to Nigeria. • Various international donors including the EU, GIZ, and others offer support to returning migrants. • Proactive outreach well before and immediately Many of the returned migrants were repatriated fol- after return, intensive follow-up and handholding lowing being held in detention centers or exploit- after the provision of information and referral ative labor situations in Libya and other transit services, and a formal link to the services offered countries. for preventing irregular migration and promoting better migration could put returning migrants on a sustainable economic path in Nigeria. 10. By expanding legal pathways table also assigns responsibility to a lead and partici- for migration and implementing pating agencies overseeing each of the 10 areas. supporting measures to reap In recent years, the economic and demographic con- dividends from current migrants texts have firmly highlighted the limited job opportu- in the diaspora, Nigeria can nities in Nigeria’s domestic labor market. There is no further benefit from international question that the majority of Nigerian youth entering migration. the labor market will need to be supported through domestic job creation initiatives. Current trends high- Nigeria’s institutions are well-placed to promote light that there are almost 3-3.5 million new jobseekers managed migration approaches that help create entering the labor market every year in Nigeria while the opportunities for prospective Nigerian jobseekers annual outflow of Nigerian migrants has approximately to find employment internationally and can be sup- amounted to 50,000 in the last decade or less than 2 ported to help design schemes that increases the percent of the labor market entrants in the economy returns to human capital investments for Nigerian every year. However, it is important to acknowledge the youth. Table ES.3 provides a summary of 10 areas for growing migratory pressures in the Nigerian economy consideration for policymakers. They are structured and to recognize that managed labor migration can be around four thematic areas, namely expanding legal one of many jobs strategies that can help unlock unre- pathways for regular migration, improving support alized gains for the country’s economy. for current migrants, strengthening institutions gov- erning labor migration, and harnessing better data for One consequence of inaction to the rising migratory migration policymaking. Each recommendation has a pressure has been the increase in irregular migration suggested timeframe attached to it: either short-term to Europe which has resulted in Nigerian migrants (6-12 months) or medium-term (1-2 years) based on facing not only higher economic costs but also physical the urgency of the issue and the capacity of the leading and psychological abuse along the transit corridors in and participating agencies to carry out reforms. The Niger and Libya. In response to the European migration Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 15 Table ES.3. Areas for policy consideration to improve the migration management framework in Nigeria Thematic Recommendation Timeframe/ Lead Participating Priority Priority Agency Agencies Expanding 1. Secure more and larger labor migra- Medium-term Federal Ministry Office of the Vice Legal Pathways tion partnerships with destination of Labor and President, Federal for Regular countries Employment Ministry of Foreign Migration 2. Re-enable the International Labor Short-term (FMLE) Affairs, Federal Migration Help Desk (ILMD) to source Ministry of Justice, and provide placement for overseas Federal Ministry of jobs Education, Federal Ministry of Health, 3. Formulate strict compliance and Short-term ECOWAS accountability mechanisms for effective functioning of Private Employment Agencies (PEAs) that source foreign employment opportunities 4. Set up a regional effort to allow Medium-term talented African professionals to find work within ECOWAS and further afield Improving sup- 5. Provide support to migrants in distress Medium-term Nigerians Office of the Vice port for current abroad through labor attachés and in Diaspora President, Federal and returning diaspora organizations and through Commission Ministry of Labor and migrants grievance redress mechanisms in Employment, Central Nigeria Bank of Nigeria 6. Facilitate labor market reintegration Short-term of returning migrants 7. Coordinate with national and interna- Short-term tional financial institutions to reduce the cost of sending remittances to Nigeria Strengthening 8. Mainstream labor migration in key Medium-term Office of the Vice FMLE, Nigerians in institutions national policy documents President Diaspora Commission governing labor 9. Reduce fragmentation and enhance Medium-term migration coordination among migration work- ing groups Harnessing 10. Collect and disseminate timely data Short-term National Bureau of FMLE, Office of better data on migration through the regular Statistics the Vice President, for migration Labor Force Surveys Nigerians in Diaspora policymaking Commission crisis, several European donors have shown increased overlook the economic and demographic context in interest in the migration policy-making space in which irregular migration occurs. What is needed are Nigeria. However, most resources and attention have systems that, alongside preventing irregular migra- been devoted toward strengthening border controls or tion, can facilitate safe and orderly migration to enable creating awareness around irregular migration. While youth to find overseas employment and help Nigeria those initiatives are necessary, they are not sufficient to benefit through remittances and transfer of skills, to address the challenge of irregular migration, as they technology, and investments. 16 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Introduction: The two faces of international migration in Nigeria By December 3, 2020, there were more than 65 million While Dr. Ogbuagu’s example shines the brightest, confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and more migrants, across the skills spectrum, have been key than 1.5 million people had died from the virus.8 The actors in the global response to COVID-19. In 2020, an pandemic had not only claimed millions of lives but estimated 31 percent of all workers in the “essential” had also brought the global economy to a standstill, category in the EU were migrants.10 Migrants made negatively impacting the livelihoods of billions. The up 13.8 percent of the National Health Service (NHS) world was desperate for a scientific breakthrough to in the UK health workforce.11 Among them were 8,241 combat the virus. One of those breakthroughs came Nigerian doctors, nurses, and clinical support staff. when the UK became the first country to approve a In the United States, 28 percent of physicians and 16 vaccine tested through large clinical trials and autho- percent of nurses were foreign born as of 2018.12 Nige- rized the emergency use of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. rian nurses made up 6 percent of the total share of immigrant nurses in the US, behind only the Philip- Developed as a cross-border collaboration between pines and India.13 the American pharmaceutical company Pfizer and the German firm BioNTech, the vaccine proved to be The efforts of Dr. Ogbuagu and other Nigerian medical 94.5 percent effective in preventing symptoms from professionals in the fight against COVID-19 is fittingly COVID-19. One of the key figures involved in the recognized across the globe. Outside of the medical development of the vaccine was Dr. Onyema Ogbuagu profession, Nigerians ranging from Chimamanda of Yale University, a Nigerian national who had com- Ngozi Adichie to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and from Chi- pleted his medical training from University of Calabar wetel Ejiofor to John Obi Mikel are just a few names in in Nigeria and had interned at the Ebonyi State Uni- a long list who have gained international prominence versity Teaching Hospital, before moving to New York and made notable contributions to fields ranging from to work at the globally renowned Mount Sinai School literature to politics, and entertainment to sports. of Medicine. “Nigerians contribute to the world in so Nigerians were the most educated group of migrants in many ways. Our hats off to Dr. Onyema Ogbuagu at the United States, with an estimated 59 percent of Nige- Yale who helped develop a Covid-19 vaccine,” read a rian immigrants aged 25 or over earning a bachelor’s statement from the US Embassy in Nigeria.9 degree.14 Globally, there are an estimated 15 million 8.  Our World in Data, available at: https://ourworldindata.org 9.  AllAfrica: Nigeria Celebrates Scientist in Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Breakthrough, available at: https://allafrica.com/stories/202011250089.html 10.  Immigrant Key Workers: Their Contribution to Europe’s COVID-19 Response, IZA Policy Paper No. 155, April 2020: http://ftp.iza.org/pp155.pdf 11.  NHS Staff from Overseas: Statistics: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7783/ 12.  Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of data from the U.S. Census Bureau 2018 American Community Survey (ACS): https://www.migrationpolicy. org/article/immigrant-health-care-workers-united-states-2018 13. Ibid 14.  Pew Research Center (2018), ‘Key Facts About Black Immigrants in the US’. Available at:https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/24/ key-facts-about-black-immigrants-in-the-u-s/ Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 17 Nigerians in the diaspora (including noncitizens born Africa who are being scapegoated for crimes such as to Nigerian parents) who regularly contribute to their robbery and kidnapping without evidence. In Ghana, host societies as well as influence the economic devel- Nigerian traders have repeatedly sought help from opment process in Nigeria. authorities back home, accusing Ghanaian authorities of discriminating against Nigerian-owned businesses.17 Despite the noteworthy accomplishments of Nigeri- ans abroad, international migration has increasingly Another issue that has been prominently highlighted become a contentious issue in the country. Much of this as a net negative from international migration is the is due to the rise in irregular migration from Nigeria. issue of brain drain. Prevailing narratives in the Nige- The political upheaval caused by the Arab Spring in rian media suggests that brain drain is leading to a net parts of North Africa and the ensuing breakdown of the export of human capital and leaving many domestic rule of law in countries such as Libya has led to the pro- sectors vulnerable. Nowhere is this discussion more liferation of migrant smuggling networks. These smug- emphasized than in the health care sector. In 2018, glers use North Africa as the transit point to try and Nigeria had 1.2 nurses and midwives for every 1,000 smuggle migrants from different parts of Sub-Saha- inhabitants, slightly above the Sub-Saharan African ran Africa to Europe. In November 2017, a CNN inves- average of 1.0 and much below the OECD average tigation found migrants, including from Nigeria, being of 9.6.18 COVID-19 has made these inequities more sold as slaves in Libyan markets.15 Nigerians made up pronounced and further fueled the sentiment that the largest group of irregular migrants from Sub-Sa- Nigeria is losing its best and brightest. However, haran Africa that crossed the Mediterranean in 2016 one can question whether it is sensible to disrupt or and 2017. Thousands of others were stuck in deten- prevent skilled migration when a third of the coun- tion camps inside Libya. Worsening economic condi- try’s youth is struggling to find stable employment in tions in Nigeria have contributed to young Nigerians the domestic labor market. taking perilous journeys to search for greener pastures in Europe. But aspiring migrants are often forced to This two-faced nature of the migration debate in return empty-handed, suffering the scars of abuse and Nigeria highlights the need for policy that maximizes exploitation in the process, and often heavily indebted the benefits and minimizes the costs of international to human smugglers and criminal networks even after migration. Migrant professionals in the diaspora not they return. only help fill critical labor shortages in host countries, but also support their families back home through There are other factors that have contributed to the remittances, which amounted to 5 percent of Nige- recent negative perception of international migration ria’s GDP in 2019.19 Leading by example, they also in Nigeria. In September 2019, after a wave of xenopho- inspire human capital formation in the country and bic violence in South Africa, nearly 600 Nigerians were give reasons for youth to believe that if they work hard, repatriated.16 There are concerns that the COVID-19 they will have a bright future. But Nigeria cannot con- pandemic and the economic fallout has further endan- tinue to only look at one side of migration while ignor- gered Nigerians and other African migrants in South ing the plight of irregular migrants or overlooking 15.  CNN (2017), ‘People for Sale: Where Lives are Auctioned for $400’. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/14/africa/libya-migrant-auctions/index.html 16.  CNN (2019),’Nigerians return home fleeing Xenophobic attacks in South Africa’. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/13/africa/nigerians-re- turn-from-south-africa-xenopbobic-attacks-intl/index.html 17.  DW, (2020), ‘Nigerian Traders Angered by Ghana Shop Closures’. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/nigerian-traders-angered-by-ghana-shop-closures/ av-54936773 18.  World Development Indicators. Available at: https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/ 19. Ibid 18 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth detrimental factors within its economy that force some case that Nigeria stands to benefit from creating new youth to make these perilous journeys. migration corridors as well harnessing further returns from existing ones. This report aims to support the Government of Nigeria in filling critical information gaps on the issue of inter- The second part presents an analysis of the trends and national migration and aid comprehensive migration patterns of international migration from Nigeria to policy making. It does so in three ways. First, it places provide insights on the characteristics of international international migration within the broader labor migrants and their contribution to Nigeria’s economy. market context in Nigeria, carefully stressing the push Additionally, it discusses the trends in remittances and pull factors that lead to both regular and irregular received by Nigeria and the issue of cost of sending migration and makes the case for why more structured remittances to the country. This section includes a regular migration can be one of the ways in which case study that describes the phenomenon of irreg- Nigeria can support education to work transition for ular migration in the Edo State in Nigeria, which is aspiring Nigerian jobseekers. Second, it synthesizes the widely known as a hub for irregular migration and is available evidence on how migration happens out of estimated to contribute about 60 percent of Nigerians Nigeria by looking at the trends and patterns of Nige- crossing irregularly through the Mediterranean Sea to rian migration, major countries of destination, and Europe. key areas of vulnerabilities while identifying existing gaps in evidence to inform decision-making. Third, it The third and final part highlights how international looks at the institutional framework governing labor migration is increasingly being used as an employment migration at the Federal level in Nigeria, underscor- strategy by developing countries and how despite the ing the various stakeholders involved in the process, significant increase in remittance inflows, there is lack and underlining key gaps that are hampering Nigeria’s of an organized structure that promotes better migra- ability to enhance the benefits and reduce the costs tion management and facilitates safe and remunera- from international migration. tive migration from Nigeria. This section assesses the Federal Overseas Employment System using a migra- This report is structured in three parts. The first part tion life cycle framework and explores the essential looks at the broader labor market setting in Nigeria, features of a well-functioning labor-sending system, along with the economic and demographic context, some of which have been successfully deployed in to highlight specific drivers of increased migratory other countries. Lessons from migration and employ- pressure in recent years before postulating that the ment policy instruments adopted by Nigeria, and con- recent surge in irregular migration is a direct conse- sultations with government stakeholders at the federal quence of worsening joblessness combined with lack level are analyzed to assess the existing gaps, culminat- of regular channels for youth to find employment in ing with a case study that compares the existing frame- other countries. Amid concerns around brain drain, it work in Nigeria with that of a mature labor-sending sheds light on a more pressing phenomenon of “brain system in the Philippines. This part ends by providing waste”, where large numbers of educated youth are areas for policy considerations based on the findings entering the labor market only to find themselves in presented in the three parts of the report. acute and chronic unemployment despite invest- ing in their human capital and unable to earn better This report is part of a broader analytical program labor market returns. Given the overwhelming evi- that aims to better understand the potential of labor dence of the economic benefits of economic migration migration and skills partnerships to provide more and in the global context, this section ends by making the better jobs to Nigerian youth. The important issue of Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 19 how Nigeria can formalize skills-based migration part- flow, including potential impact from COVID-19 have nerships with destination countries is highlighted in a been highlighted systematically through the bi-an- companion report titled Exploring Legal Pathways from nual Migration and Remittances Briefs.22 As part of Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain. The com- the overall engagement under which this report is panion report presents, in detail, the feasibility assess- produced, Nigerian stakeholders working on labor ment of creating structured and regular migration migration were able to visit South Korea to observe the pathways from Nigeria to the UK and Germany in the Employment Permit System (EPS) migration program sectors of health care and construction, respectively. to learn from a well-functioning managed migration Using the framework called the Global Skill Partner- system that South Korea implements with 16 countries ship model and interviews with more than 100 stake- of origin from East, South, and Central Asia. Lessons holders in Nigeria and abroad, it highlights existing and experiences from EPS, including for sending shortages in the sectors of health care and construc- countries, are systematically highlighted in a recent tion in Nigeria and destination countries, and outlines World Bank report.23 Finally, the importance and use how destination countries looking to fill labor short- of Bilateral Labor Agreements to facilitate labor flows ages by hiring migrants from Nigeria can get involved between countries have been highlighted in the case of in providing high-quality and industry-relevant train- Pacific Islands and Australia and New Zealand by sub- ing to potential Nigerian migrants and nonmigrants in sequent World Bank reports in recent years.24 Nigeria so that the stock of skilled Nigerian workers— that Nigeria needs as much as destination countries— Finally, it is important to underscore what this report can be increased in both settings. We hope that this does not do. Four caveats merit declarations. First, feasibility assessment contains useful lessons for both this report does not shed light on the issue of inter- Sub-Saharan African and European countries inter- nal migration. It is well-established that the number ested in developing mutually beneficial labor migra- of internal migrants globally is about four times the tion partnerships in the future. number of international migrants.25 Looking at the proportion of households that receive domestic as This report builds upon and borrows from similar opposed to international remittances, it can be esti- assessment of migration trends and systems con- mated that there are many more internal migrants ducted by World Bank teams in recent years in other than international migrants from Nigeria.26 Issues regions around the World. In particular, the institu- related to internal migration merit their own space. tional assessment of the Federal Overseas Employ- Second, while this report does shed some light on ment System heavily draws upon similar assessments intra-regional migration, i.e., migration of Nigerians conducted in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and within sub-Saharan Africa, most of the analysis pre- Nepal, and adapts the framework to the context in sented and policy recommendations are focused on Nigeria.20 Similarly, exploration of international labor extra-continental migration. This is because of limited mobility as a jobs strategy has been highlighted recently data on intra-regional migration trends compared in Myanmar.21 The most current trends in remittances to data that can be accessed through platforms such 20. See Holzmann (2020) for Afghanistan, Cho and Majoka (2020) for Pakistan, and World Bank (2020) for South Asia Regional Report. 21. See Testaverde et al (2020) 22. See World Bank (2020) for Migration and Remittances Brief 33 23. See Cho et al (2018) 24. See Luthria and Malaulau (2013), Curtain et al (2016) 25.  United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Population Division, ‘Cross-national comparisons of internal migration: An update on global patterns and trends’, Technical Paper No. 2013/1. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/ desa/population/publications/pdf/technical/TP2013-1.pdf 26.  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): NLSS 2018/19 Report. https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1123 20 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth as the OECD as well as the recent focus on the rise in or host countries. Secondary literature is referenced irregular migration to Europe as a primary motivating where available and areas of future work are suggested factor to highlight alternate ways to discourage irreg- at the end of each section. ular migration. Third, this report does not shed light on the dynamics of forcibly displaced persons from By 2030, Nigeria will need to create additional 30 Nigeria. According to the most recent UNHCR data, million jobs for its growing and young population, sig- there were more than 300,000 Nigerian refugees and nificantly adding to the existing employment pres- more than 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) sure. Labor shortage in developed countries and labor in Nigeria.27 The analysis presented in this report does surplus in developing countries such as Nigeria means not cover IDPs and only includes Nigerian refugees that solving spatial mismatches could lead to improved where their data is included within the International jobs outcomes for both countries of origin and desti- Migrant Stock data released by the United Nations. It is, nation. This report will aim to highlight how regulated however, important to mention that irregular migra- international migration can be beneficial in helping tion from Nigeria to Europe is of mixed nature – con- countries such as Nigeria address extreme poverty, sisting of economic migrants as well as those who have build foreign exchange reserves, fuel economic been driven from their homes by conflict or climate growth, and facilitate transfer of investments, knowl- change. The data available does not allow sufficient edge and skills in the economy. It is our hope that the differentiation between the two groups. Finally, it is lessons learned from Nigeria through this exercise can important to stress that this report does not provide help highlight policies that promote safe, remunera- any systematic analysis on the impact of international tive and cost-effective migration in Nigeria as well as migration on Nigerians, their sending communities other countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region 27.  UNHCR (2021). Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/nigeria-emergency.html#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20the%20Nigerian%20refugee,going%20 into%20its%20seventh%20year.&text=The%20crisis%20has%20been%20exacerbated,levels%20in%20all%20four%20countries Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 21 Part A: Making the Case for More and Better Regulated Labor Migration from Nigeria 22 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Important Definitions and Clarifications Underemployed (National definition, Time Based): on Data: The underemployed comprise all persons who worked for at least 20 hours but less than 40 hours Working Age Population: All persons between the age during the reference week. of 15 and 64 comprise working age population. • Figure A.5, A.7 and A.8 uses labor force data statis- Active Labor Force: The active labor force population tics from 2010 to 2020 from the National Bureau of covers all persons aged 15 to 64 years who are willing and Statistics (NBS). able to work regardless of whether they have a job or not. • Figure A.9 uses open data from ILOSTAT to benchmark the duration of unemployment. Unemployed (ILO definition): The unemployed com- prise all persons of working age who were: (a) without Irregular Migration: The International Organiza- work during the reference period, i.e., were not in tion of Migration (IOM) defines “irregular migration” paid employment or self-employment; (b) currently as “movement of persons that takes place outside the available for work, i.e., were available for paid employ- laws, regulations, or international agreements govern- ment or self-employment during the reference period; ing the entry into or exit from the State of origin, transit and (c) seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps in or destination.” “Human Trafficking”, on the other a specified recent period to seek paid employment or hand, is defined by the United Nations as “the recruit- self-employment. ment, transportation, transfer, harboring, or receipt of persons by improper means (such as force, abduc- Unemployed (National definition): In addition to tion, fraud, or coercion) for an improper purpose the unemployed as defined by ILO, Nigeria’s Bureau including forced labor or sexual exploitation.” Due to of Statistics considers ‘unemployed’ any individual as lack of data to distinguish trafficked victims among the who could not find work for at least 20 hours during irregular migrants, the analysis presented in this brief the reference period. is not able to draw separate conclusions between the two categories empirically. However, the two catego- ries are distinct as the latter involves informed consent from migrants while the former does not. continent and the rest of the world. Between 2000 and Country Context 2014, the Nigerian economy grew at an average of 6.1 percent per year.28 Nigeria’s economic performance during this period, as the 13th largest producer of oil Geographically large, multicultural, and in the world, was largely fueled by stable oil prices richly endowed, Nigeria stands at a critical and a prudent counter cyclical fiscal policy during the juncture in its economic trajectory. global financial crisis of 2008. However, in 2014, with the sharp drop in global oil prices, Nigeria’s economy As Africa’s most populous and largest economy, Nige- entered a recession. Before it could fully recovery, ria’s economic prosperity has implications for the another crisis arrived in the form of COVID-19. 28.  World Bank. 2020a. Nigeria on the Move: A Journey to Inclusive Growth. Systematic Country Diagnostic. World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33347 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 23 Figure A.1. Nigeria’s GDP per capita growth has stagnated since the economic recession of 2014 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Real per-capita GDP "business as usual" Rising to potential “1980s redux" (constant 2010 USD) (NGA: 2016-2019) (IDN: 2002-2012) (NGA: 1980-1990) Source: Nigeria Development Update, December 2020 Nigeria’s economy is expected to contract by 4 percent must enter the labor market with better skills and in 2020, following the pandemic-induced drop in fewer constraints to working productively and gain- international oil prices. It is clear that Nigeria is faced fully outside their homes. with an unprecedented challenge due to the demo- graphic and economic crossroads at which it stands. With the GDP per capita growth falling behind the Labor Market Context population growth in recent years, Nigeria’s economic growth will continue to stagnate under the “busi- ness-as-usual” scenario (Figure A.1)29 and could leave Nigeria’s working age population is set to an additional 30 million Nigerians below the extreme expand by 133 million between 2020 and poverty line of US$ 1.90/day by 2030.30 2050, significantly adding to existing employ- ment pressure. Breaking the oil dependency and restoring economic prosperity will require Nigeria to invest in its people, Nigeria accounts for 20 percent of the population of especially its youth. With more than 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and is projected to be the Nigeria’s population currently below 35 years of age, third most populous country in the world by 2040, the country can enjoy a one-time opportunity for with over 400 million inhabitants. Figure A.2 shows rapid economic development, as the largest cohort the change in the population pyramid for Nigeria of working-age population enter the labor market. between 2020 and 2050. It shows that children below However, the demographic dividend is not a given in the age of 15 outnumber youths aged 15-34 in 2020, but itself: to realize its potential, young women and men as those children enter the working-age population, 29.  Between 2015 and 2019, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate averaged 1.1 percent compared to the population growth rate of 2.6 percent 30.  World Bank. 2020b. Nigeria Development Update, December 2020: Rising to the Challenge - Nigeria’s COVID Response. World Bank, Washington, DC 24 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure A.2. Nigeria’s children in 2020 will enter working-age to increase the number of youth (15-34) in the population by 73 million in 2050 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Female 2050 Female 2020 Male 2050 Male 2020 Source: World Bank calculations using data from the United Nations, World Population Prospects the number of youths aged 15-34 is set to increase from Figure A.3. Nigeria’s working age population 68 million in 2020 to 141 million in 2020, significantly is expected to increase by over 150 million adding to the stock of working-age population in the between 2020 and 2050, the highest near future. compared to peer countries 250,000,000 Similarly, Figure A.3 shows that Nigeria’s working age population (15-64) is expected to increase by 120 percent between 2020 and 2050, from 110 million to 200,000,000 243 million. The projected growth in Nigeria’s work- ing-age population will see Nigeria overtake Pakistan 150,000,000 and Indonesia by 2045, while diverging from coun- tries such as Bangladesh, where the rise in the working age population is expected to stagnate between 2020 100,000,000 and 2050. 50,000,000 Compared to several high-income OECD coun- tries that are facing a rapidly ageing population, the population in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa will 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 remain young until 2050 (Figure A.4). The old-age Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Vietnam dependency ratio, which measures the share of the population aged 65 and above in comparison to the Indonesia Russian Federation Pakistan working-age population, is set to increase by more Nigeria than 20 percentage points in countries such as Italy Source: World Bank calculations using data from the United Nations, World and by 10 percentage points in Germany and Canada. Population Prospects Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 25 In Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa, the old age depen- Figure A.4. Nigeria’s old age dependency dency ratio is expected to remain below 10 percent in ratio is expected to stay below 10 percent in the foreseeable future. 2050 compared to several high-income OECD countries where the population is ageing Ratio of population aged 65+ per 100 population 15-64 The labor market in Nigeria has not kept pace 100 with the rising working-age population, sig- 90 nificantly worsening after the 2016 recession. 80 70 Nigeria’s labor market shows increasing signs of weak- 60 nesses. Between 2014 and 2020, Nigeria’s working 50 age population grew from 102 million to 122 million, 40 growing at an average rate of approximately 3 percent 30 per year. Similarly, Nigeria’s active labor force popu- 20 lation, i.e., those willing and able to work among the working age population, grew from 73 million in 2014 10 to 90 million in 2018, adding 17.5 million new entrants 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 to Nigeria’s active labor force. Since 2018, however, the Japan South Korea Italy number of active labor force population has dramat- United Kingdom Germany Canada ically decreased to around 70 million—lower than the United States of America Sub-Saharan Africa level in 2014—while the number of Nigerians who are Nigeria in the working-age population but not active in the labor force has increased from 29 million to 52 million Source: World Bank calculations using data from the United Nations, World between 2014 and 2020 (Figure A.5). Population Prospects Figure A.5. The share of fully employed individuals in Nigeria’s active labor force has decreased below 2014 levels in 2020 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Fully Employed Underemployed Unemployed Not in Labor Force Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. Note: Fully employed includes individuals who were working 40 hours or more during the survey period. Underemployed includes individuals who were working between 20 and 39 hours. Unemployed includes individuals working less than 20 hours a week in the reference period. 26 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure A.6 shows that women and youth are particularly (26.3 percent). Women are also particularly vulnerable vulnerable in Nigeria’s labor market. Only 40 percent in Nigeria’s labor market. of female Nigerians among the active labor force pop- ulation are employed compared to 46 percent males. Similarly, 37 percent of youth are employed compared Large numbers of educated youths are enter- to 49 percent in the adult working age population (35- ing the labor market but are unable to realize 64). Underemployment rates are higher in rural areas higher economic returns from investing in and among females. their human capital. The expanding working-age population combined with Nigeria’s working age population is increasingly enter- scarce domestic employment opportunities is creating ing the labor market with higher educational qualifi- high rates of unemployment, particularly for Nigeria’s cations. Between 2010 and 2020, Figure A.8 (Panel A) youth. Between 2010 and 2020, the unemployment rate shows that the share of Nigerians with secondary educa- rose fivefold, from 6.4 percent in 2010 to 33.3 percent in tion in the active labor force grew from 32 percent to 38 2020. The rise in unemployment rates have been par- percent. During the same period, the share of Nigerians ticularly acute since the 2015-2016 economic recession with post-secondary education grew from 12 percent to and have further worsened as COVID-19 led to the worst 18 percent. On the flipside, the share of Nigerians who recession in four decades in 2020 (Figure A.7). Unem- have primary level of education has declined steadily ployment rate, defined nationally as the percentage of from 24 percent in 2010 to 14 percent in 2020. Finally, the labor force population who could not find at least 20 the share of Nigerians who have never attended school hours of work in the reference period, was significantly remained steady at around 30 percent of the active labor higher for youth (42.5 percent) compared to nonyouth force population between 2010 and 2020. Figure A.6. Nigeria’s labor force pyramid in 2020 shows that youth, females, and rural inhabitants have poorer labor market outcomes Working age population 15-64 (122,049,400) Inactive working age Active labor force population population (52,397,932) (69,675,468) 43% 57% Employed Underemployed Unemployed (30,572,440) (15,915,639) (23,187,389) 44% 22.8% 33.3% Male 46.4% Male 21.8% Male 31.8% Female 40.6% Female 24.2% Female 35.2% Rural 38.6% Rural 26.9% Rural 34.5% Urban 52.5% Urban 16.2% Urban 31.3% Youth (15-34) 36.5% Youth (15-34) 21.0% Youth (15-34) 42.5% Non-Youth (35-64) 49.4% Non-Youth (35-64) 24.2% Non-Youth (35-64) 26.3% Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 27 Increasingly, educated Nigerians are struggling to A.8 (Panel B) shows the trajectory of unemployment find employment opportunities in the country. While rate by education level in the last decade. Between unemployment rates have increased substantially for 2010 and 2020, the unemployment rate increased by Nigerians across all education levels over the years, it more than 30 percentage points for Nigerians with sec- has become progressively challenging for educated ondary and post-secondary education and currently Nigerians to find employment opportunities. Figure stands at 37.1 percent and 35.6 percent, respectively. Figure A.7. Unemployment rates have worsened since the 2014 recession, particularly for youth Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Unemployment Rate - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (Nigeria Definition) Unemployment Rate - Youth (ILO Definition) Unemployment Rate - non - Youth (ILO Definition) Source: World Bank calculations using data from NBS. Box A.1. Dramatic reductions in Nigeria’s active labor force since 2018 The latest data on unemployment (Q4 2020) from out of the active labor force. From Q3 2017-Q3 2018, Nigeria’s NBS paints an exceedingly grim picture almost all states added members of the working-age of the labor market in Nigeria. First, it shows that population into their labor force and 15 states man- employment outcomes are heterogenous across aged to increase the stock of full and part-time states with unemployment rates ranging from 12 individuals (Figure AB.1; Panel A). Between Q3 2018 percent in Osun to 56 percent in Imo. In Q4 2020, and Q4 2020, however, only 8 states managed to more than 4 million members of the working-age increase the number of employed (full and part- in large metropolitan centers in Lagos and Kano, time) individuals, while all states saw a significant and more than 3 million in Kaduna were outside of decline in the active labor force. During this period, the labor force. 8 out of 36 states saw more than a million Nigerians of working-age drop out of the labor force. While Further looking at state level trends in changes in COVID-19 could have played a role in such large labor force participation across multiple years, it numbers dropping out of the labor force, the trend confirms that between 2018 and 2020, more than since 2018 needs further exploration and presents 20 million Nigerians of working-age have dropped a conundrum to Nigerian policy makers. 28 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Box A.1. Cont. Figure AB.1. More than 20 million Nigerians have dropped out of the labor force since 2018 Panel A: Change in Labor Force and Employed Population, by State (Q3 2017 - Q3 2018) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 (100,000) (200,000) (300,000) Benue FCT Kogi Kwara Nasarawa Niger Plateau Adamawa Bauchi Borno Gombe Taraba Yobe Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Sokoto Zamfara Abia Anambra Ebonyi Enugu Imo Akwa Ibom Bayelsa Cross River Delta Edo Rivers Ekiti Lagos Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo North-Central North-East North-West South-East South-South South-West Change in Labor Force Change in full and part-time employment Panel B: Change in Labor Force and Employed Population, by State (Q3 2018 - Q4 2020) 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) (2,000,000) (2,500,000) (3,000,000) (3,500,000) Benue FCT Kogi Kwara Nasarawa Niger Plateau Adamawa Bauchi Borno Gombe Taraba Yobe Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Sokoto Zamfara Abia Anambra Ebonyi Enugu Imo Akwa Ibom Bayelsa Cross River Delta Edo Rivers Ekiti Lagos Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo North-Central North-East North-West South-East South-South South-West Change in Labor Force Change in full and part-time employment World Bank calculations using data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 29 Figure A.8. Increasingly, Nigerians with secondary and post-secondary education are unable to find jobs in Nigeria Panel A: Share of Nigerians by level of education completed in the active labor force, 2010-2020 100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Never Attended School Below Primary Primary Secondary Post-Secondary Panel B: Unemployment rates by education level completed, 2010-2020 Percent 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Never attended school Below Primary Primary Secondary Post Secondary Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. 30 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Nigeria’s educated youth face a double crisis—a high the total unemployed are unemployed for more than domestic unemployment rate and a tertiary education two years, Nigeria lags far behind. Even among its system that is unable to prepare them for the demands regional peers, Nigerians face the highest duration of of the global labor market. In the last four decades, unemployment. This is especially concerning for edu- the number of recognized universities in Nigeria grew cated youth who invest in their human capital in the tenfold from 16 to 174 which resulted in a meteoric rise hope of securing returns on their investments but face in tertiary enrollment.31 The quality of education in the acute and chronic shortages of opportunities upon newly opened universities, however, is subpar; only entering the labor market. two Nigerian universities are listed in the Times Higher Education’s World University Rankings 2021.32 A combined assessment of Nigeria’s labor market shows that unemployment rates are high and increas- Additionally, Nigeria fares worse when compared to ing for youth with secondary and post-secondary peer countries with respect to chronic unemployment. education who face a chronic and acute shortage of A country comparison of Nigeria with its regional, employment opportunities within the country. These structural and aspirational peers shows that severity of youth are likely to hold out for a wage job, particularly the duration of unemployment is the highest in Nige- in the public sector; however, these jobs are limited ria.33 Close to 50 percent of Nigerian jobseekers face in number. and. The private sector in Nigeria is cur- chronic unemployment of more than 2 years (Figure rently unable to absorb the growing number of edu- A.9). When compared to its aspirational peers such as cated youths. The tertiary education system is likely Colombia and Bangladesh where only five percent of exacerbating this challenge as it is unable to align its Figure A.9. Compared to peer countries, the percentage of jobseekers who are unemployed for more than 2 years is the highest in Nigeria Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 an n t so ire sia go sh ia ad da a am na a ia yp tio bi bi er st ib Fa de To Ch an ha o ne Eg m N om ra ig Iv ki am la Rw a Za G do et N Pa de d' in l ng N Co Vi In e rk Fe Ba t Cô Bu n ia ss Ru Source: International Labor Organization. “Unemployment distribution by duration (by sex and age) (%).” ILOSTAT. Accessed 27-08-2020. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data. 31.  NUC (2019), see pages 2-4 for the complete list of private and public universities in Nigeria and the year of establishment. 32. See Times (2020) for the list of 1000 leading universities in the world. 33.  Regional, structural and aspirational peer countries are taken from Nigeria Systematic Country Diagnostic June 2019 report for benchmarking. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 31 curriculum to meet the global demand for a skilled the domestic economy. A Gallup poll conducted before workforce. It can be concluded that a pressing phe- the 2019 presidential elections shows that approxi- nomenon of “brain waste” is playing out in the Nigerian mately 50 percent of Nigerians said it was a “bad time” labor market, where large numbers of educated youth to find a job in the economy.34 Unemployment for both are entering the labor market, only to find themselves youth and adults has consistently ranked as the most unemployed and unable to earn better labor market important issue facing the country, above manage- returns despite investing in their human capital. ment of the economy, poverty, corruption, and elec- tricity (Figure A.10).35 Youth, particularly in urban areas, show signs of being disenfranchised in the Nige- Migratory Pressure rian economy. Over 7 in 10 youth in 2018 believed that the country was headed in the wrong direction.36 The recent #ENDSARS protest, which largely started out A combination of rising unemployment, calling for an end to police brutality, was exacerbated booming demographics, and unfulfilled aspi- by socioeconomic factors and increasing frustration rations is increasing the pressure on young among youth as the current jobless crisis risks erosion Nigerians to migrate in search for gainful of human capital for an entire generation of Nigerians. employment overseas. Unemployment is considered to be a key driver of Concerned about their employment prospects at migration. Consequently, multiple surveys show that home, Nigeria’s youth are increasingly frustrated with the number of Nigerians who are looking to migrate Figure A.10. Nigeria’s youth rank unemployment as the most pressing concern facing the country Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Management of Wages Unemployment Poverty Education Electricity Corruption Economy Adult (> 35) Youth (18-34) Source: World Bank Calculations based on data from Afro Barometer (Round 7) 34.  Gallup, 2019. 35.  See summary of results from Round 5, Round 6, and Round 7 of the Afro Barometer Surveys for Nigeria. 36.  Afro Barometer, 2018. 32 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth internationally is high and increasing. The propor- urban residents (41 percent) and post-secondary grad- tion keen to leave permanently has increased from uates (45 percent) in Nigeria (Figure A.11; Panel B). 36 percent in 2014 to 52 percent in 2018, according to While the expressed intent to migration may not result Gallup (Figure A.11; Panel A). This is one of the highest in actual migration in most cases, emerging literature levels in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure A.11; Panel C). Data shows strong association between emigration inten- from Afro Barometer show that the desire to migrate tions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized is higher among unemployed (38 percent), youth (39 countries as well as between intentions and aggregated percent), secondary education graduates (39 percent), out-migration.37 Figure A.11. Percentage of Nigerians who are willing to migrate overseas is high and increasing Panel A: Percentage who would move permanent Panel B: Proportion of respondents considering to another country emigrating to another country Percent Percent 60 50 40 50 30 40 20 10 30 0 20 ) n an n ed ia 34 tio tio er rb oy 8- ca ca ig U pl (1 ll N du du m 10 h yE yE ne ut ra Yo ve U ar ar nd O nd co co 0 Se Se st 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Po Panel C: Proportion of respondents who would move permanently to another country (Nigeria and regional peers) Precent 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Niger Togo Chad Liberia Mauritania Mali Senegal Benin Nigeria Sierra Leone Cameroon Burkina Faso Ghana Gabon Cote d'Ivoire Gambia Source: World Bank Calculations based on data from Gallup (Panel A), Afro Barometer (Panel B), and OECD (Panel C). 37.  See Tjaden, J., Auer, D. and Laczko, F., 2019. Linking migration intentions with flows: evidence and potential use. International Migration, 57(1), pp.36-57; available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/imig.12502. The article examines the association between estimated population averages of emigra- tion intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 33 Young Nigerians are increasingly opting for of Nigerians had completed secondary education (39 irregular migration routes to realize their percent) compared to migrants from the rest of SSA hopes for a better life. (21 percent)39, which tallies well with the analysis of the domestic labor market that shows educated youth in With rising migratory pressures created by poor particular suffering progressively worse employment employment conditions, Nigerians are increasingly outcomes in the country. choosing to migrate through irregular means. Figure A.12 shows that the number of first-time asylum Nigerian migrants arriving in Italy represent only a frac- seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria to tion of the irregular migrants hoping to reach Europe. Europe peaked in 2016, at the height of the European According to data from IOM’s Displacement Tracking migration crisis, before subsiding in late-2017. Nige- Matrix, there were around 50,454 Nigerians in various rians represented the largest group of migrants from parts of Libya in December 2019.40 Over 14,000 Nige- Sub-Saharan Africa arriving in Europe in 2016 and rians have been returned from Libya through IOM’s 2017. Nearly 40,000 Nigerians arrived in Italy in 2016 Assisted Voluntary Humanitarian Return and Repatri- with over 90 percent of those arriving via sea routes. ation (AVHRR) programs since 2016.41 The number of A larger share of Nigerian migrants arriving to Italy Nigerians in Niger—another transit country for irregu- were women (32 percent) compared to migrants from lar migrants from Nigeria—increased from 19,177 in 2010 the rest of SSA (24 percent).38 Similarly, a larger share to 93,179 in 2015.42 A large share of Nigerian migrants in Figure A.12. Number of first-time asylum seekers from Nigeria to Europe peaked in 2016 and 2017 before subsiding in 2018 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria Source: World Bank calculations based on data from EuroStat 38.  World Bank calculations based on data from Eurostat. 39.  World Bank Group. 2018. Asylum Seekers in the European Union: Building Evidence to Inform Policy Making. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30157 40.  International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2020, ‘Libya’s Migrant Report Round 28’. Available at: https://displacement.iom.int/system/tdf/reports/ DTM_R28_Migrant_Report_12_02_2020.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=7752 41.  Info Migrants. 2019. Returnees Struggle to Adjust to Life in Nigeria. Available at: https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/19561/ returnees-struggle-to-adjust-to-life-in-nigeria 42.  United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2019. World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights. Available at https://www.un.org/ development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-2019-highlights 34 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Niger are in transit to European destinations through While the number of asylum seekers from Nigeria irregular channels. A transit in Niger accounted for has declined in recent years, this does not translate almost 50 percent of the arrivals into Libya in 2019.43 as decreased demand for migration from Nigeria. Besides migrants in transit, many migrants have lost The drop in migration levels from Nigeria and other their lives in the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sub-Saharan African countries to Europe is a result Sea while striving to reach Europe.44 of tighter border control policies supported by the EU in transit countries such as Libya and Niger.45 Irregular migration carries a tremendous economic, However, the underlying economic and demographic physical, and psychological cost, yet Nigerian migrants factors that create migratory pressures are unlikely to still choose to go ahead with it. Those migrating from subside in the near future, with other potential irreg- Nigeria to Italy tend to be from relatively better-off ular routes being reported through Sudan and Chad households. Even so, these journeys cost around 10 to Libya.46 COVID-19 may have brought global mobil- times their average household monthly income, at ity to a halt due to global travel restrictions, but it has a minimum (Figure A.13). Migrants, especially those also fueled the same underlying push factors that lead from poorer households, take loans to finance the cost to migration in developing countries such as Nigeria. of migration and fall under heavy debt trap when they It has also highlighted the significant contributions return empty-handed. Aside from the economic costs, made by migrants as “essential” workers in the food, migrants face a high risk of abuse, especially at the health care, and agricultural sectors. Designing, pilot- hands of criminal networks. ing and scaling schemes that allow some of the growing Figure A.13. Irregular migration costs far exceeds average monthly household income in Nigeria Nigerians: Nigeria to Italy (KNOMAD) $1,979 Median Asylum Seeker from SSA (EASS) $2,250 Nigerians: Libya to Italy (IOM) $2,773 Median Asylum Seeker from Africa (EASS) $3,500 Nigerians: Niger to Italy (IOM) $8,436 Nigerians: Libya to Netherlands (IOM) $10,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Source: IOM, KNOMAD, and EASS reports. 43.  IOM, 2020. Libya Migrant Report. Available at: https://displacement.iom.int/system/tdf/reports/DTM_R28_Migrant_Report_12_02_2020. pdf?file=1&type=node&id=7752 44. See https://missingmigrants.iom.int/region/mediterranean for details on number of missing migrants and fatalities by region, year, and routes. 45.  See Migration Policy Institute, 2021 for more details: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/europe-migration-africa-eutf 46.  Institute for Security Studies, 2020. Fewer Migrants to Europe, Bigger Problems for Africa available at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/ fewer-migrants-to-europe-bigger-problems-for-africa Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 35 number of unemployed educated youth in Nigeria to a survey conducted by the European Union (EU) found be employed gainfully in foreign labor markets that that 39 percent of firms in the EU had difficulty finding face labor shortages and ageing could lead to mutually staff with the right skills.47 Skills shortages were most beneficial outcomes for both sets of countries. pronounced in high- and medium-skilled sectors such as health care, information and communications tech- nology (ICT), hospitality, construction, and tourism. Migrants are key to economic recovery from While the prevailing narrative may suggest that Euro- COVID-19 in many destination countries peans have an unfavorable view of increased levels of which face shrinking populations and labor migration to the EU, data from opinion polls suggest shortages in key sectors. that the facts are more nuanced (Figure A.13). The majority of the European public is in favor of migrants In many high-income countries, migrants will con- from African countries, as long as they have skills that tinue to plug labor shortages in essential sectors. Many can plug specific gaps in the European labor market. high-income OECD countries are facing a continu- There is a strong interest from a number of European ous decline in fertility rates, leading to a reduction in member states in engaging on legal migration path- the working age population (15-64) and an increase in ways between Europe and Africa. the population aged 65 or older (Figure A.14). This has increased the burden on the social security and health The key role of migrants in the global COVID-19 response care systems and led to economic slowdowns. In 2013, further highlights the value they bring to high-income Figure A.14. Most Europeans favor a degree of immigration, especially for skilled professionals who can plug key skills shortages Percent 100 9% 12% 25% 32% 80 23% 26% 60 33% 34% 44% 40 43% 33% 20 26% 23% 19% 10% 8% 0 Professionals from Professionals from poor Unskilled labourers Unskilled labourers from poor (specific) (specific) non-European from poor (specific) poor (specific) non-European European country country European country country Allow many Allow some Allow a few Allow none Source: World Bank calculations using Data from European Social Survey. 47.  European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) (2015). Skill Shortages and Gaps in European Enterprises: Striking a Balance Between Vocational Education and Training and the Labour Market. Luxembourg: Publications Office. Cedefop reference series; No 102. Available at: https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/3071_en.pdf 36 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth OECD countries and other host nations. Since the onset on either side of the aisle. Proponents argue that immi- of the COVID-19 crisis, data from many high-income gration to developed countries is critical to fill the gaps countries suggest that migrants have formed a large in domestic labor markets and helps sending countries, share of the “essential” worker category across the skills which are primarily developing, through remittances, spectrum. For example, in the United States, 30 percent increased trade, and investment linkages. Opponents of doctors and 27 percent of farm workers are for- raise strong concerns about the negative impact on the eign-born.48 In Australia, 53 percent of doctors and 35 local workforce in the receiving countries, demographic percent of nurses are immigrants.49 In the EU, more than changes that can adversely affect social cohesion, and one in three domestic workers and one in five workers the brain drain from the sending countries that nega- in the food processing industry are migrants.50 Realizing tively affects local labor markets. the key role played by migrants in the crisis response, some countries have already instituted reforms realiz- It is important to acknowledge that the stock of skilled ing that contributions from migrants will be even more individuals is paramount to the economic development critical during the recovery phase. Portugal granted all objectives of Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum-seekers citizenship rights. In the countries. For example, one in every nine persons born US, foreign-born health care workers were given tem- in Africa and holding a tertiary diploma lived in the porary work permits and skills recognition. Italy went OECD in 2010-11,51 leading some to conclude that the through a process to regularize irregular migrants to continent’s “best and brightest” were leaving for greener enable recovery in critical sectors. pastures after being trained using public resources.52 However, recent and emerging literature on this issue suggests that emigration results in human capital accu- Assessing the Cost and Benefits of mulation rather than depletion in the source coun- International Migration to Africa tries. Regulating skilled migration and implementing innovative approaches that increase the stock of skilled and Nigeria individuals at home and abroad can address high unem- ployment and skills mismatches in the domestic labor Despite serious and valid concerns around market while the positive externalities of skilled migra- loss of the stock of skilled individuals and tion can lead to further human capital accumulation.53 increase in irregular migration, the benefit of regular international migration largely Africa is at the forefront of another hotly contested inter- outweighs the costs. national migration debate with serious, yet slightly mis- directed, concerns about irregular migration to Europe International Migration is a highly debated issue in both and other advanced economies. The recently launched sending and receiving countries. Opinions are divided Africa Migration Report provides evidence and trends 48.  Migration Policy Institute (MPI), 2020. Immigrant Workers: Vital to the U.S. COVID-19 Response, Disproportionately Vulnerable. Available at: https://www. migrationpolicy.org/research/immigrant-workers-us-covid-19-response 49.  International Labor Organization (ILO), 2020. Labour Migration. Available at: https://www.ilo.org/beirut/areasofwork/labour-migration/lang--en/index.htm 50.  VOXEU. 2020. Immigrant key workers in Europe: The COVID-19 response that comes from abroad. Available at: https://voxeu.org/article/ covid-19-immigrant-workers-europe 51.  United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2013. “World Migration in Figures.” A joint contribution by UNDESA and the OECD to the United Nations High-Level Dialogue on Migration and Development, October 3-4, 2013. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/World-Migration-in-Figures.pdf 52.  Quartz Africa. 2019. “Nigeria’s ongoing middle-class brain drain is costing it two generations in one swoop.” Available at: https://qz.com/africa/1615518/ nigerias-middle-class-keep-emigrating-to-canada-australia/ 53.  Slesh Shrestha. 2017. “No Man Left Behind: Effects of Emigration Prospects on Educational and Labor Outcomes of Non-migrants.” Economic Journal 127(600). https://econpapers.repec.org/article/wlyeconjl/v_3a127_3ay_3a2017_3ai_3a600_3ap_3a495-521.htm; and Satish Chand and Michael Clemens. 2019. “Human Capital Investment under Exit Options: Evidence from a Natural Quasi-Experiment.” IZA Discussion Papers 12173. Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp12173.html Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 37 to challenge the existing narratives on mixed migration migration would generate important positive outcomes patterns in the continent.54 The key findings are (a) most for Nigeria, as would steps to improve the transfer of African migrants are not crossing oceans, but rather investments and skills from Nigeria’s diaspora and its crossing land borders within Africa; (b) 94 per cent of returning migrants. African migration across oceans takes on a regular form; and (c) most global migrants are not African. Africa For emigrating workers, migration provides an oppor- accounts for 14 per cent of the global migrant popula- tunity to move to a higher earning job and send back tion, compared, for example, to 41 per cent from Asia remittances to their families. For sending households, and 24 per cent from Europe. These findings reinforce global evidence strongly suggests that remittances help the need to retell the African migration story that is in investments in human capital of children and pro- largely about migration within the continent. vides cushions against economic shocks.56 Looking more broadly, migrants help spur innovation in the This is not to say that irregular migration is not a concern economy, which often leads to emergence of sectors for countries such as Nigeria. Across Europe, undoc- that would otherwise have not been created in coun- umented or irregular migrant workers, many from tries of origin.57 The links that migrants help gener- Africa, are a particularly vulnerable group. Most irreg- ate between two countries help reduce trade-related ular migrants lack access to basic social protections and transaction costs.58 Returning migrants also contrib- workers’ rights and are frequently the victims of exploit- ute to the spreading of ideas, technology, and knowl- ative labor practices.55 However, exclusively focusing edge in their countries of origin, as well as the creation on reducing irregular migration through border con- and expansion of export-oriented sectors.59 Managed trols and other measures ignores the underlying factors labor migration schemes directly benefit prospective that propel many Nigerians to take these journeys in migrants and their households, and indirectly benefit the first place. Prioritizing the increase of regular and the Nigerian economy by bringing to fruition unreal- safe migration alongside initiatives to reduce irregular ized economic gains.60 54.  IOM, 2020. Libya Migrant Report. Available at: https://displacement.iom.int/system/tdf/reports/DTM_R28_Migrant_Report_12_02_2020. pdf?file=1&type=node&id=7752 55.  The Institute for Public Policy Research, 2011. Background Paper for the ETUC: The Impacts of Irregular Migration. Available at: https://migration.etuc.org/ en/docs_en/6%20The%20impacts%20of%20irregular%20migration.pdf 56.  See for example, Azizi, Seyed Soroosh (2018), The impacts of workers’ remittances on human capital and labor supply in developing countries. Economic Modelling, 75, pp.377-396. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318302542 57.  For example, the IT sector in India and Israel, see Khanna, G. and Morales, N., 2017. The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream. Center for Global Development Working Paper, (460), available at: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/it-boom-and-other-unintend- ed-consequences-chasing-american-dream; Rosenberg, David. 2018. Israel’s Technology Economy: Origins and Impact. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Available at: https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783319766539 58.  Cohen, L., Gurun, U.G. and Malloy, C., 2017. Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps. The Journal of Finance, 72(1), pp.207-248. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12407); Parsons, C. and Vézina, P.L., 2018. Migrant Networks and Trade: The Vietnamese Boat People as a Natural Experiment. The Economic Journal, 128(612), pp. F210-F234. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ abs/10.1111/ecoj.12457 59.  Bahar, D. and Rapoport, H., 2018. Migration, Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations. The Economic Journal, 128(612), pp. F273-F305. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12450 60.  See for example UNCTAD Economic Development in Africa Report 2018 (Migration for Structural Transformation) which states that interna- tional migrants contributed about 19% of Cote d’Ivoire’s GDP in 2008 and 9% of South Africa’s GDP in 2011. Available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/ official-document/aldcafrica2018_en.pdf 38 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth The Way Forward Figure A.15. Share of Nigerians actively preparing to emigrate is higher in the higher income quintiles Nigerians will continue to migrate overseas Probability of preparing for work in the foreseeable future; policy can for migration determine on what terms that migration will 0.08 Income density happen. 0.4 0.06 Given that the economic and demographic factors 0.3 driving international migration remain largely 0.04 unchanged, Nigerians can be expected to continue 0.2 migrating abroad for the foreseeable future. Multi- ple studies confirm an inverted-U shaped relation- 0.02 0.1 ship between emigration levels and income.61 That is, as countries grow richer, emigration levels tend to 0 increase until they reach upper-middle income status. 0 100 1,000 10,000 The share of Nigerians actively preparing to emigrate Household income per adult (PPP$ ln scale) internationally is higher in the richer quintiles of the income distribution (Figure A.16). That means as Nige- Source: Michael Clemens and Mariapia Mendola. 2020. “Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox.” Center for Global rians in the lower income quintiles catch up, migration Development (CGD) Working Paper 539, Washington, DC: Center for Global from Nigeria will continue to increase. Labor shortages Development (CGD). Note: The bell-shaped curve in gray, and the left-hand vertical axis, show the density in developed countries and labor surplus in develop- of household income per capita for the whole Nigerian population. The line in blue ing countries such as Nigeria mean that employment (surrounded by an interval of statistical confidence), and the right-hand vertical axis, show the probability that people at each income level report that they are actively opportunities will likely remain unequally distributed preparing to permanently emigrate from Nigeria. across the globe in the future. This creates an opportu- nity for some young Nigerian jobseekers to find tempo- The imperative going forward should be to open safe rary employment abroad. and orderly channels for international migration, to the benefit of recipient countries and Nigeria alike. A more The contribution that international migrants make to regularized system would help ensure that Nigeria’s Nigeria’s GDP through remittances far outweighs their excess labor is productively used, generate value for the size as a proportion of the population (i.e., 0.7 percent).62 destination country, and allow for the transfer of knowl- Nigerian migrants and others in the diaspora contrib- edge, skills, and resources back to Nigeria. uted over US$25 billion to the Nigerian economy in 2019 (6 percent of Nigeria’s GDP63 ). This is the equivalent In response to the increase in irregular migration of total oil rents in 201764 and is fourfold what Nigeria from Nigeria, more attention and resources have received through FDI and ODA combined. Remittances been devoted toward strengthening border controls also have the benefit of being less volatile. or creating awareness around irregular migration.65 61.  Zelinksy, W., (1971); Martin, P.L., and Taylor, J.E. (1996); De Haas, H. (2010); Clemens, M.A. (2014) 62.  World Bank calculations using United Nations Data on International Migrants Stock (2019). 63.  World Bank, World Development Indicators. 64. Ibid 65.  The Correspondent. 2019. “A breakdown of Europe’s €1.5bn migration spending in Nigeria.” Available at: https://thecorrespondent. com/150/a-breakdown-of-europes-eur1-5bn-migration-spending-in-nigeria/19837235550-e86e62a5 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 39 While those initiatives are necessary, they are not suf- approaches that help create opportunities for prospec- ficient to address the challenge of irregular migra- tive Nigerian jobseekers to find employment interna- tion, as they overlook the economic and demographic tionally. They can also support the design of schemes context under which irregular migration occurs. Par- that increase the returns to human capital investments allel to initiatives that address irregular migration, for Nigerian youth. Nigerian institutions can promote managed migration 40 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth References Gallup. 2019. Nigerians See Mixed Economic Picture as Election Day Nears. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/ Afro Barometer. Nigeria Data. Available at: https://afrobarome- poll/246590/nigerians-mixed-economic-picture-elec- ter.org/data/328 tion-day-nears.aspx Azizi, S., 2018. The impacts of workers’ remittances on human International Labor Organization. 2020. Labor Migration. capital and labor supply in developing countries. Economic Available at: https://www.ilo.org/beirut/areasofwork/ Modelling, 75, pp.377-396. labour-migration/lang--en/index.htm Bahar, D. and Rapoport, H., 2018. Migration, knowledge dif- International Organization of Migration. 2018. CMFS Brief: fusion and the comparative advantage of nations. The Nigerian Migrants (To Europe). Available at: https://dis- Economic Journal, 128(612), pp. F273-F305. placement.iom.int/system/tdf/reports/CMFS%20Brief%20 Nigeria_V5.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=5722 Cingolani, P., Pastore F., and Salis, E., 2017. Measuring Migration Costs of West African Migrants to Italy. Available at: https:// International Organization of Migration. 2020. Libya Migrant www.fieri.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Migration-Costs- Report. Available at: https://displacement.iom.int/ Italy-FIERI-14Mar2018-1.pdf system/tdf/reports/DTM_R28_Migrant_Report_12_02_2020. pdf?file=1&type=node&id=7752 Clemens, M.A., 2014. Does development reduce migration? International Handbook on migration and Economic devel- Info Migrants. 2019. Returnees Struggle to Adjust to Life in opment. Edward Elgar Publishing. Nigeria. Available at: https://www.infomigrants.net/en/ post/19561/returnees-struggle-to-adjust-to-life-in-nigeria Cohen, L., Gurun, U.G. and Malloy, C., 2017. Resident net- works and corporate connections: Evidence from World Khanna, G. and Morales, N., 2017. The IT Boom and Other War II internment camps. The Journal of Finance, 72(1), Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream. pp.207-248. Center for Global Development Working Paper, (460). De Haas, H., 2010. Migration and development: A theoret- Kirwin, M. and Anderson, J., 2018. Identifying the factors driving ical perspective. International migration review, 44(1), West African migration. Available at: https://www.oecd. pp.227-264. org/swac/publications/2018-wap-17-identifying-the-fac- tors-driving-west-african-migration.pdf Eurostat. Asylum and first-time asylum applicants by cit- izenship, age and sex. Annual aggregated data. Martin, P.L. and Taylor, J.E., 1996. The anatomy of a migration Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/ hump. Development Strategy, Employment, and Migration: asylum-and-managed-migration/data/database Insights from Models. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, pp.43-62. Gallup. 2018. More Than 750 Million Worldwide Would Migrate If They Could. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/ Migration Policy Institute. 2020. Immigrant Workers: Vital to the poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-migrate.aspx U.S. COVID-19 Response, Disproportionately Vulnerable. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/ immigrant-workers-us-covid-19-response Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 41 Mobility Partnership Facility. 2019. Digital Explores. Available United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. at: https://mobilitypartnershipfacility.eu/what-we-do/ 2019a. International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. actions-pilot-projects/digital-explorers United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, National Bureau of Statistics. 2019. Labor Force Statistics- 2019b. World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights. Volume 1: Unemployment and Underemployment Report. Available at: https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/856 United Nations Development Program. 2019. Scaling Fences: Voices of Irregular Migrants to Europe. Available at: https:// Parsons, C. and Vézina, P.L., 2018. Migrant networks and trade: www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/home/library/ The Vietnamese boat people as a natural experiment. The reports/ScalingFences.html Economic Journal, 128(612), pp. F210-F234. VOXEU. 2020. Immigrant key workers in Europe: The COVID- Rosenberg, David. 2018. Israel’s Technology Economy. Cham: 19 response that comes from abroad. Available at: https:// Palgrave Macmillan. voxeu.org/article/covid-19-immigrant-workers-europe The Correspondent. 2019. 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Trends and Patterns of International Migration from Nigeria Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 43 Important Definitions and Clarifications (UNHCR) or United Nations Relief and Works Agency on Data: for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNWRA) are added in the estimation of international migrant • “International Migrants” in this chapter are defined stock by UNDESA. based on classification in the International Migrant • Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC) Stock 2019, released by the United Nations – Depart- is used to profile Nigerian migrants in destination ment of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), countries in the OECD. This data compiles statistics Population Division. on migrant stocks based on country of birth. Similar • Data on international migrants are estimated using to data from UNDESA, international migrant stock population censuses, population registers, and is estimated using population censuses, registers, nationally representative household surveys in and nationally representative surveys. countries of destination. • Analysis in this chapter does not distinguish • For 187 out of 232 countries of destination, anyone between different categories of international residing outside of their country of birth is classi- migrants (apart from between those in the interna- fied as an international migrant. For the remaining tional migrant stock who are refugees and asylum 45 countries, anyone with a foreign citizenship is seekers in some instances), such as (a) temporary or classified as an international migrant. permanent migrants, based on duration of stay or • Refugee populations are included in the interna- naturalization status; or (b) migrant workers, family tional migrant stock. In countries where refugees migrants, irregular migrants, or international stu- have been granted refugee status and allowed to dents, based on the motive for migration. This is integrate, they are normally covered by the popu- largely due to lack of available data in making that lation census. In countries where refugees are not distinction. Future data collection need be carried regularly captured in population censuses, data out to understand this distinction. from United Nations High Commission on Refugees International Migrants from in 1990 to 1,438,331in 2019. Despite this, the share of Nigeria: The One Percent international migrants as a proportion of Nigeria’s population has remained largely constant, increas- Globally, the number of international migrants ingly slightly from 0.5 percent in 1990 to 0.7 percent in increased from 153 million in 1990 to 272 million in 2019 (Figure B.1). 2019, growing by around 119 million.66 During the same period, the number of international migrants origi- The share of international migrants in Nigeria’s pop- nating from Sub-Saharan Africa has grown from 14.9 ulation is much lower compared to the shares in million in 1990 to 26.7 million in 2019. Sub-Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa and globally. The share of inter- African migrants comprise roughly 10 percent of the national migrants in the Sub-Saharan African popula- international migrant population despite representing tion decreased from 3 percent in 1990 to 2.5 percent in around 14 percent of the global population. 2019, but still remains significantly higher compared to Nigeria. Similarly, the share of international migrants The number of international migrants from Nigeria has in the global population has increased steadily from increased threefold since 1990, growing from 446,806 2.9 percent in 1990 to 3.5 percent in 2019 (Figure B.2, 66.  United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Population Division (2019). International Migration 2019: Report (ST/ESA/ SER.A/438). Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/InternationalMigration2019_ Report.pdf 44 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure B.1. Despite the number of international migrants from Nigeria growing three-fold between 1990 and 2019, the share of international migrants in the population has remained largely constant Proportion of Nigeria's population (%) 1,600,000 0.8 1,400,000 0.7 1,200,000 0.6 1,000,000 0.5 800,000 0.4 600,000 0.3 400,000 0.2 200,000 0.1 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 International Migrants from Nigeria International Nigerian Migrants as a share of the Population Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. Panel A). Similarly, compared to Nigeria’s structural and from Nigeria has increased from 191,407 to 680,485, regional peer countries, the percentage of international outpacing the growth in the number of male migrants migrants from Nigeria is much lower compared to what by close to 60 percentage points (Figure B.3). The share the population size would predict (Figure B.2, Panel B).67 of females among Nigeria’s international migrants in 2019 is roughly similar to the proportion of female migrants among international migrants from Sub-Sa- In the last two decades, the share of female haran Africa and globally (47 percent).68 international migrants from Nigeria has increased steadily while the share of ref- An important trend that is observed in the data is the ugees and asylum seekers has increased drastic increase in the share of refugees and asylum dramatically. seekers from Nigeria in the last decade, growing from 27,557 in 2010 to 408,078 in 2019. As a share of the The share of female migrants from Nigeria is steadily international migrant stock, this represents a rise increasing, rising from around 42 percent of the inter- from 3 percent in 2010 to around 28 percent in 2019 national migrant population in 1990 to 47 percent in (Figure B.4).69 This increase in the number of refu- 2019. In absolute terms, the number of female migrants gees and asylum seekers from Nigeria coincides with 67.  Regional, structural and aspirational peer countries are taken from Nigeria Systematic Country Diagnostic June 2019 report for benchmarking. 68.  United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Population Division (2019). International Migration 2019: Report (ST/ESA/ SER.A/438). Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/InternationalMigration2019_ Report.pdf 69.  While refugees are included as part of the international migrant stock, the UNDESA data on international migrant stock does not have a categorization for refugees. This estimation is based on two different data sets that may not always be comparable in terms of definition and methodology used and is only meant to be used for indicative purposes. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 45 Figure B.2. The share of international migrants compared to Nigeria’s population remains significantly lower compared to Sub-Saharan Africa and globally Panel A: International migrants as a share of the population Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa World Panel B: Emigration to Population Ratio, Nigeria and peer countries, 2019 International migrants from country of origin (millions) 12 Russian Federation 10 8 Bangladesh Pakistan 6 Indonesia 4 Egypt Colombia Viet Nam 2Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Nigeria Rwanda Togo Ghana Namibia Zambia 0 Chad 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Population (millions) Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions and World Population Prospects. 46 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure B.3. The share of female migrants among Nigeria’s international migrants has increased steadily between 1990 and 2019 Percent 800,000 50 700,000 40 600,000 500,000 30 400,000 20 300,000 200,000 10 100,000 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Male Female Share of females among international migrants Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. Figure B.4. The share of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria has drastically increased over the last two decades Percent 1,600,000 30 1,400,000 25 1,200,000 20 1,000,000 800,000 15 600,000 10 400,000 5 200,000 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 International Migrants from Nigeria Refugees and Asylum Seekers from Nigeria Share of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in the International Migrant Stock Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions and from UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics. This comparison is based on two different sets of data, sometimes drawn from different sources and using different methodologies. Hence, there are likely to be omissions and errors. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 47 the observed trend in irregular migration in the last (Figure B.5). However, the share of Nigerian migrants decade described in Part A of the report. While the in the international migrant population has decreased majority of the Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers in Sub-Saharan Africa and increased in Europe and from Nigeria stay within the continent, the share of North America. In 1990, 60 percent of migrants from refugees and asylum seekers outside of Sub-Saharan Nigeria moved to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa has increased steadily (see Figure B.4). Addi- Africa, compared to 20 and 13 percent to countries in tionally, there were 2.1 IDPs in Nigeria in 2020. Europe and North America respectively. In 2019, the share of Nigerian migrants moving to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa remains large (42 percent) but Most international migrants from Nigeria has decreased substantially compared to 1990. On the stay within Sub-Saharan Africa, but the share other hand, the share of Nigerian migrants in Europe of international migrants to Europe and and North America has increased to 31 and 22 percent North America has increased considerably respectively in 2019. since 1990. Around 85 percent of all international migrants from In 2019, around 1.44 million international migrants Nigeria in 2019 were concentrated in 12 destination from Nigeria were present in destination countries countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and North in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and North America, America.70 The United States, United Kingdom, and with a small share of the remaining migrants in Cameroon had the largest number of international other regions. The number of Nigerian migrants has migrants from Nigeria in 2019 (Figure B.6). United increased in all major destination regions since 1990 States and United Kingdom also saw the largest growth Figure B.5. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the primary destination of international migrants from Nigeria but the share of international migrants moving to Europe and North America has increased considerably 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Other Regions Europe Northern America Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank calculations based on data from the UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. 70.  Globally, two-third of all international migrants resided in just 20 countries, with the United States hosting 19 percent of the global international migrant population. 48 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure B.6. United States, United Kingdom, and Cameroon hosted the largest number of international migrants from Nigeria in 2019 United States of America 55,350 309,699 United Kingdom 45,984 205,698 Niger 38,319 130,982 Benin 15,728 86,226 Italy 11,859 80,235 Ghana 14,876 79,023 Cameroon 105,140 148,076 Canada 45,188 Germany 44,015 Spain 29,204 Togo 32,176 Côte d'Ivoire 44,791 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. in the number of international Nigerian migrants from from 3,765 in 2010 to 285,599 in 2019 (Figure B.7). In 1990 to 2019, whereas Chad and Sudan – countries that fact, 93 percent of the Nigerian refugees and asylum were among the top 12 destination countries for Nige- seekers in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019 were found in rian migrants in 1990 – saw the number of Nigerian just two countries—Cameroon and Niger. Both coun- migrants in their territories decline in 2019. tries border conflict affected regions of northern Nigeria, while Niger is also known as a transit for irreg- The numbers of Nigerian migrants in countries such ular migrants from Nigeria and other countries in the as Canada, Spain, and Ireland have increased consid- region who attempt to reach Europe through Libya. It erably since 1990. Outside of destination countries in is also noteworthy that since the refugee population is Africa, Europe, and North America, the number Nige- accounted for in the international migrant stock data, rian migrants has increased in the United Arab Emirates almost all of the Nigerian international migrants in (15,465) and Australia (12,135) in 2019 compared to 1990. Niger and Cameroon in 2019 were refugees and asylum seekers with little voluntary migration between these The majority of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers neighboring countries. stay within Sub-Saharan Africa. The number of Nige- rian refugees and asylum seekers in Sub-Saharan The number of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers Africa has increased substantially in the last decade, has also increased steadily in the last decade in Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 49 Europe and North America. Europe hosted 81,558 Africa, where more than 40 percent of international Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers in 2019, with migrants from Nigeria reside, this relationship is Italy, Germany, and France being the three major des- unclear, suggesting that Nigerian migrants who have tination countries. Similarly, North America hosted moved to these countries may have been motivated by 33,527 refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria in factors other than income. 2019, with the United States and Canada accounting for almost all of them. One possible explanation for this, as explained earlier, is the presence of refugees and asylum seekers from Wage differences between countries of origin and coun- Nigeria in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.72 Camer- tries of destination are considered to be the most import- oon, for example, hosts almost 110,000 Nigerian ref- ant determinants of migration flows.71 In Nigeria’s case, ugees as of 2019. In Niger, which lies along the transit the relationship between international migrant stock in route that many irregular migrants take while attempt- destination countries and the difference between wages ing to move to Europe by crossing the Mediterranean in destination countries and Nigeria is positive for des- Sea, the number of Nigerian migrants has increased tination countries in Europe and North America (Figure from 38,319 in 1990 to 130,982 in 2019, despite Niger’s B.8). However, for destination countries in Sub-Saharan income per capita being much lower than Nigeria’s.73 Figure B.7. The share of Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers has increased substantially in the last decade with the majority of them staying within Sub-Saharan Africa 3,765 Sub-Saharan Africa 158,025 285,599 5,474 North America 7,560 33,527 15,031 Europe 45,242 81,558 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2010 2015 2019 Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics. 71.  World Bank. 2018. “Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration and Labor Markets” (Overview). Policy Research Report. World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29806/211281ov.pdf 72.  Ibid, the Report shows that, globally, refugees also respond to wage differentials while fleeing a country. However, the positive relationship between share of refugees in destination countries and wage differential with country of origin is less precise than in the case of economic migrants. 73.  World Bank (2018) Asylum Seekers in the European Union: Building Evidence to Inform Policy Making (English). Washington, D.C., available at https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30157?locale-attribute=fr; and Di Maio, Michele; Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio; Molini, Vasco. 2020. Migration in Libya: A Spatial Network Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 9110. World Bank, Washington, DC., available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/33194; for a full description of transit routes for irregular migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa. 50 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure B.8. International Nigerian migrants who move outside of the continent move to countries with per capita income significantly higher than Nigeria’s 14 Log of International Migrants Stock from Nigeria in Destination USA CMR GBR NER BEN 12 GHA ITA TGO CIV CAN DEU ZAFGAB ESP IRL SDN 10 AUT NLD MOZ BFA FRA SWE BEL TCD MLI FIN CHE SLE GRC NOR BWA DNK SEN 8 NAM TUR ZMB CPV RUS CZE GIN GNQ ROU POLCYP BGR SYC PRT 6 ISL SVN 4 UGA 2 0 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 -2 -4 -6 Log of GDP Per Capita of Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa Linear (Sub-Saharan Africa) Europe and North America Linear (Europe and North America) Other Regions Source: World Bank calculations based on data from UNDESA International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions and World Development Indicators. Box B.1. How has COVID-19 affected international migration and remittances in Nigeria? The data on the impact of COVID-19 on interna- Emerging data from the EC, however, suggests tional migration from Nigeria is scant. However, that the number of first-time asylum seekers from looking at the socioeconomic impacts of the pan- Nigeria to the EU has fallen from 20,515 in 2019 to demic through a migration lens, the irregular 7,570 in 2020, as COVID-19 has impacted the abil- migration crisis in Nigeria is expected to exac- ity of individuals to seek asylum in the EU.2 While erbate further. Analysis from the International COVID-19 related restrictions have certainly cur- Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) shows that tailed mobility in the short-term, it is hard to gauge during the lockdown from March-June 2020, if the drop in Nigerians seeking asylum in the EU is a overall GDP fell by 23 percent and household marker that overall irregular migration levels from incomes fell by 25 percent.1 Nigeria has fallen. Despite the number of Nigerian 1.  Andam, K. S., Edeh, H., Oboh, V., Pauw, K., and Thurlow, J. 2020. Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria. NSSP Working Paper 63. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Available at https://www.ifpri.org/publication/ estimating-economic-costs-covid-19-nigeria 2.  European Commission (2021): Atlas of Migration: https://migration-demography-tools.jrc.ec.europa.eu/data-hub/atlas.html Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 51 Box B.1. Cont. first-time asylum-seekers decreasing in 2020 com- smuggling and trafficking in persons flows to more pared to 2019, migrants from other parts of Africa affluent countries over the medium- to long-term.4 are continuing their quest to reach Europe. Recent data shows that the number of people attempting International remittances are also being affected the crossing from North Africa to Italy reached by COVID-19; there is a marked reduction in flow of 34,000 in 2020, almost three times the number of international remittances to Nigeria. Data from the irregular sea arrivals recorded in 2019.3 Similarly, a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that remit- study from the United Nations Office on Drugs and tances fell by 27 percent in 2020, the highest annual Crime (UNODC) draws on the dynamics observed drop in more than a decade, from US$23.5 billion during other global economic downturns, such as in 2019 to US$17.2 billion in 2020 (Figure BB.1). Ear- the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and reveals that lier the World Bank had projected remittances to during the time of economic crisis, countries par- Nigeria to fall to US$21 billion in 2020, with further ticularly affected by prolonged unemployment decline projected in 2021.5 become relevant origin countries for both migrant Figure BB.1. International remittances to Nigeria fell by 27 percent in 2020 compared to 2019 Thousands 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 Total Direct Remittances 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Direct Remittances) Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 3.  Mixed Migration Centre. 2021. Quarterly Mixed Migration Update Q4 2020: West Africa, January 2021. http://www.mixedmigration.org/ resource/quarterly-mixed-migration-update-wa-q4-2020/ 4.  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 2021. How COVID-19 Restrictions And The Economic Consequences Are Likely To Impact Migrant Smuggling And Cross-Border Trafficking In Persons To Europe And North America: available at https://www.unodc.org/documents/ data-and-analysis/covid/Covid-related-impact-on-SoM-TiP-web3.pdf 5.  World Bank, 2020. Migration and Development Brief 33. Available at https://www.knomad.org/publication/ migration-and-development-brief-33 52 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Economic Development and receiving remittances from abroad, with this share International Migration from being much higher in the south compared to the north. Edo State in the southern region is a clear outlier with Nigeria 25 percent of households that report receiving remit- tances from abroad (See Box 3). International migration is more prevalent in relatively prosperous southern states On average, the mean annual household remittances in Nigeria, which receive a higher share of for households who receive cash and in-kind assis- remittances from abroad. tance from abroad amounted to N13,746 in 2018-19. The average annual household consumption during the It is not surprising that the relatively prosperous south- same period was N236,000, which meant that the mean ern states report a significantly higher proportion of annual remittances amounted to around 6 percent of households with international migrants compared the mean annual consumption for households who to the northern states. This is because international report receiving remittances from abroad. There is, migration is costly and requires households to spend however, a significant degree of heterogeneity between upfront capital that few households in the poorer states. For example, international remittances as a share regions of the country can afford. of household consumption is 70 percent in Katsina, 20 percent each in Edo and Akwa-Ibom and negligible in The top 10 states where the highest share of house- most of the northern states in Nigeria. holds report receiving international remittances are all located in the southern regions of Nigeria (Figure The state level data on receipt of remittances is well B.9). Overall, around 4.2 percent of households report corroborated by looking at receipt of remittances in Figure B.9. The top 10 states where most household report receiving international remittances are all in the south Mean Consumption/Remittances in Naira Share of households receiving remittances from abroad 500,000 30% 400,000 25% 20% 300,000 15% 200,000 10% 100,000 5% 0 0% Katsina Ekiti Cross River Plateau Rivers Jigawa FCT Sokoto Zamfara Kwara Taraba Edo Delta Kano Borno Bayelsa Kogi Enugu Niger Benue Kaduna Kebbi Lagos Yobe Ebonyi Nasarawa Anambra Imo Osun Abia Oyo Bauchi Ogun Adamawa Ondo Gombe Akwa Ibom Mean Remittances Mean Consumption Share of HHs received remittances from abroad Source: World Bank calculations based on the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS), 2018/2019. Note: Mean consumption is calculated for all households and is spatially and temporally adjusted. Mean remittances is calculated for those households who report receiving inter- national remittances. Share of households receiving remittances from abroad is calculated as the percentages of households who report receiving either cash or in-kind remittances from abroad in the reference period. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 53 different consumption deciles (Figure B.10).74 More for a household having a member who is an interna- than 13 percent of the households in the highest con- tional migrant, Table B.1 shows that household level sumption decile report receiving international remit- wealth is a strong determinant of international migra- tances compared to less than 3 percent each in the tion. Compared to male-headed households, female- bottom four consumption deciles in 2018/19. In com- headed households show positive association with parison, close to 30 percent of households in the lowest having an international migrant. Similarly, access to consumption decile and more than 56 percent in the internet at the household level shows strong correla- highest consumption decile report receiving remit- tions with having an international migrant. Compared tances from within Nigeria. to households where household heads have completed tertiary education, households with heads who have Similarly, Table B.1 uses simple correlation and regres- completed primary or secondary education show neg- sion models to tease out socioeconomic characteristics ative correlation with out-migration. Geographically, that are strongly associated with a household receiv- compared to the based category of households from ing remittances from abroad. Under the assumption Lagos, only Edo, Imo, and Oyo states show positive cor- that receiving remittances from abroad is a good proxy relation with out-migration. Figure B.10. Close to 14 percent of households in the highest consumption decile receive international remittances compared to less than 2 percent in the lowest three deciles Percent 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Consumption Decile Source: World Bank calculations based on the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS), 2019 74.  In this report, we only analyze international remittances vis-á-via other metrics and domestic remittances are not included in the analysis. Therefore, “Remittances” is synonymous to “Remittances received from Abroad” unless stated otherwise. 54 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Table B.1. Correlates of international migration using receipt of international remittances as proxies show that household wealth, access to internet, achievement of tertiary education, and residence in Lagos, Oyo, and Edo states are positively associated with international migration Indicators Pearson Correlation (1) Linear Model Standard (2) Probit Model Standard Coefficient with State F.E. Error with State F.E. Error Log (Total HH Consumption) 0.1732*** 0.031*** [0.003] 0.401*** [0.036] HH Head Age 0.0845*** 0.001*** [0.000] 0.011*** [0.001] HH Head is Married 0.0004 0.013*** [0.003] 0.177*** [0.046] HH Head Can Speak English 0.08**** 0.011** [0.005] 0.212*** [0.064] Manufacturing 0.011*** [0.004] 0.131*** [0.046] Services -0.012** [0.005] -0.030 [0.059] Urban 0.018*** [0.004] 0.217*** [0.044] Access to Internet 0.050*** [0.008] 0.233*** [0.050] Own Mobile Phone -0.002 [0.003] 0.026 [0.049] Below Primary -0.011 [0.007] -0.003 [0.084] Primary -0.027*** [0.007] -0.252*** [0.061] Secondary -0.029*** [0.006] -0.243*** [0.052] Vocational/Others -0.019 [0.014] -0.135 [0.140] 1. Abia 0.001 [0.018] 0.199* [0.117] 2. Adamawa -0.026* [0.015] -0.443 [0.279] 3. Akwa Ibom -0.048*** [0.015] -0.545*** [0.168] 4. Anambra -0.021 [0.017] -0.019 [0.118] 5. Bauchi -0.036** [0.014] 0.000 [.] 6. Bayelsa -0.051*** [0.015] -0.606*** [0.178] 7. Benue -0.048*** [0.015] -0.691*** [0.208] 8. Borno -0.029* [0.015] -0.287 [0.206] 9. Cross River -0.042*** [0.015] -0.412** [0.169] 10. Delta -0.005 [0.018] 0.074 [0.110] 11. Ebonyi -0.013 [0.016] 0.014 [0.170] 12. Edo 0.163*** [0.023] 0.842*** [0.096] 13. Ekiti -0.003 [0.018] 0.107 [0.114] 14. Enugu -0.012 [0.017] 0.121 [0.136] 15. Gombe -0.034** [0.015] -0.424** [0.199] 16. Imo 0.055*** [0.020] 0.525*** [0.110] 17. Jigawa -0.019 [0.015] -0.284 [0.210] 18. Kaduna -0.044*** [0.015] -0.657*** [0.184] 19. Kano -0.033** [0.016] -0.226 [0.156] 20. Katsina -0.005 [0.016] 0.223* [0.134] 21. Kebbi -0.012 [0.016] 0.131 [0.146] 22. Kogi -0.041** [0.016] -0.253* [0.152] 23. Kwara -0.025 [0.018] -0.102 [0.136] 25. Nasarawa -0.034** [0.015] -0.424** [0.195] Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 55 Table B.1. Cont. Indicators Pearson Correlation (1) Linear Model Standard (2) Probit Model Standard Coefficient with State F.E. Error with State F.E. Error 26. Niger -0.037** [0.015] -0.448* [0.244] 27. Ogun 0.022 [0.020] 0.253** [0.106] 28. Ondo 0.003 [0.018] 0.160 [0.112] 29. Osun -0.017 [0.018] 0.026 [0.123] 30. Oyo 0.050** [0.021] 0.346*** [0.106] 31. Plateau -0.035** [0.016] -0.353** [0.156] 32. Rivers -0.047*** [0.015] -0.387*** [0.141] 33. Sokoto -0.032** [0.015] -0.944*** [0.346] 34. Taraba -0.024 [0.015] -0.736** [0.354] 35. Yobe -0.031** [0.015] -0.431* [0.234] 36. Zamfara -0.038*** [0.014] 0.000 [.] 37. FCT -0.054*** [0.016] -0.438*** [0.141] Constant -0.372*** [0.043] -7.528*** [0.496] Observations 17776 16692 R-Squared 0.097 0.205 Source: World Bank calculations based on the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS), 2018/19. Note: OLS regressions using Linear (1) and Probit (2) models - to estimate the correlates of out-migration in Nigeria. Analysis is performed at the HH level. Base Categories are: Education= Tertiary, Gender = Male, Employment Sector = Agriculture, Region=Rural, and State=Lagos. Robust standard errors in brackets (* p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p <0.01) Case Study 1: The Edo Enigma: demographic, socioeconomic, historical, and cultural Understanding Irregular factors that affect irregular migration from Edo State. Migration from Nigeria Disproportionately high shares of irregular migrants Edo State in Nigeria is widely known as a hub for irreg- from Nigeria originate from Edo State. Between 2010 ular migration. Estimates suggest that Edo contributes and 2019, the EU received 245,945 first-time asylum to about 60 percent of Nigerians crossing irregularly applications from Nigerians.75 Figure BC. 1 triangulates through the Mediterranean Sea to Europe. However, data from IOM and shows that Edo State is an outlier:76 Edo is a relatively small state that has low unemploy- 62 percent of irregular migrants in Italy (which hosts ment and poverty rates when compared to many the largest number of Nigerian asylum applicants) are other Nigerian states. Prima facie, Edo does not have from Edo State. Neighboring Delta State ranks second any characteristics that would make it a candidate for state of origin of Nigerian asylum seekers in Italy for being one of the largest single sources of irregular (13 percent). Similarly, among Nigerians in transit migrants in the world. This case study looks at the key and among Nigerians returned from countries of 75.  Eurostat (2020) Asylum and first-time asylum applicants by citizenship, age and sex Annual aggregated data. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ web/asylum-and-managed-migration/data/database 76.  IOM (2017) Enabling a better Understanding of Migration Flows and (Its Root-Causes) From Nigeria Towards Europe. Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Desk%20Review%20Report%20-%20NIGERIA%20-%20DP.1635%20-%20 MinBuZa%20%2803%29.pdf 56 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Figure BCS.1. Edo State is an outlier in terms of irregular migrants originating from one single state in Nigeria Percent of irregular migrants from Nigeria 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Italy Netherlands Greece Niger (on transit) Nigerian returnees Edo The Nigerian state with "second highest" number of irregular migrants Source: International Organization of Migration (IOM), 2018 destination, Edo State is overrepresented as the single State had a population of 4.3 million in 2016, making state of origin by more than 20 percentage points it the 24th most populous state in Nigeria. With a labor compared to the states that rank second. According force of about 2 million, Edo has one of the lowest to a survey conducted by Afro Barometer in 2018, one rates of unemployment and poverty relative to other in three Nigerian households in Edo State reported states in Nigeria (Figure BCS.2).77 About 19 percent of having at least one member who had migrated in the Edo State’s working-age population are unemployed, last three years. and 12 percent live below the national poverty line, according to the data from NBS. These statistics place Consequently, it is no surprise that Edo state has Edo State among the more prosperous states (but not the highest share of households that receive inter- the most prosperous) in Nigeria. Additionally, Edo national remittances in Nigeria. Figure B.10 shows has the 12th largest Gross National Income (GNI) (US$ that households in Edo State are 5 times more likely 1,798), a little above the national average of US$ 1,757. to receive international remittances compared to the Edo State’s nominal GDP doubled from N1.48 trillion average Nigerian household and more than twice as Naira (US$3.8 billion) in 2013 to N2.3 trillion a (US$6.04 likely to receive international remittances compared billion) in 2017, with the improvement primarily driven to the second highest state in 2018/19. by the service sector. A cursory glance at the key socioeconomic indicators Edo has a slightly younger population, higher lit- in Edo fails to explain the disproportionately high eracy rate, and higher percentage of inactive male number of irregular migrants originating from the population compared to the national average, but state. According to the population projections pro- those characteristics, in themselves, cannot explain vided by the National Population Commission, Edo the substantially higher irregular migration rate. 77.  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 2020. National Living Standard Survey 2019. Available at: https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 57 Edo has a young population with a median age of 19. A stronger set of predictors of the rise in irregu- Table BCS.1 compares key socioeconomic characteris- lar migration from Edo State comes from looking tics of Edo to the Nigerian average. About 85 percent of at historical factors and social factors. In particular, Edo residents are below the age of 40, compared with two historical occurrences can be linked to the high 82 percent nationally. According to the recent NLSS, migration from Edo State. The first is the Edo-Euro- the share of the working-age population in Edo is 55 pean transatlantic trade in the 15th century,78 and the percent compared with 52.5 percent nationally. About second is the migration of seasonal workers in Nigeria 70 percent of Edo residents reported literacy in at least to tomato farms in Italy in the 1980s.79 In the 1980s, fol- one language and in the English language compared to lowing the structural adjustment programs (SAP) in 54 percent for Nigeria overall. Edo has a higher pro- West Africa, the flourishing tomato market in Ghana portion of inactive adult male population compared to was liberalized, causing many Ghanaians to lose their the national average. jobs. These adjustments also caused severe economic Figure BCS.2. Edo State has relatively low poverty and unemployment rates compared to the rest of Nigeria Panel A: Unemployment rates by State, 2020 Percent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ta oto Jig aba Ad bon a am yi m a Yo ra N e G er Ba be N nu i as gu ts a Ka na Pl no Ke au d i N una Cr F ia os CT nu r Ab e ia o Ak E i aI i Ri om ye s Kw lsa am ra O bra o o yo O n D n La ta Bo os o E ch Ka bb g w kit Beive Ba ver E w Za aw Ka aw b Im gu su rn nd Ed er Ko el fa An a ig g i e O om a u b k r at O ig sR ar So Panel B: Unemployment rates by State, 2020 Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 aI o Ri om D rs Ka elta Ta na Ko a Ab i Pl ia N au G er Cr Ka e os no aw r FC a Ba T En lsa N ugu Yo ia Ka be Be ina Jig ue Ba wa O hi Bo o La o s o O o K n ar i Ek a O iti Eb un m i So ara Kw to a g as b Za ony am ve go b aw ar b Im nd rn Ed y gu er uc N eb ve ig ko du e ra O n om s ye a ts b f Ad s Ri at ig w Ak National Bureau of Statistics, https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrarys 78.  Zasha, J.; Effiong, T.; and Bindel, J. (2017). Support to Human Trafficking Prevention in the Niger Delta. Available at: https://pindfoundation.org/wp-con- tent/uploads/2020/06/Final-Report-on-Edo-Human-Trafficking.pdf 79.  Carling, J. (2006) Migration, Human Smuggling and Trafficking from Nigeria to Europe. IOM Migration Research Series. Retrieved from http://www.iom.int 58 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Table BCS.1. Edo has higher literacy rates as their lifestyles through remittances. The increasing gap well as higher share of inactive labor force between migrant households and nonmigrant house- population compared to the Nigerian average holds in terms of living conditions and social status may have spurred new migration desires and attempts Edo Nigeria State (average) among the youth in Edo State. Population below 40 years (%) 85 82 Working-age population (15 – 64 55.2 52.5 With perceived income inequality on the rise years) (%) between migrant and nonmigrant households, and Average household size 4.52 5.06 a high desire to migrate among nonmigrants, the Dependency ratio 0.91 0.97 proliferation of smuggling networks provided an Share of female-headed household 25.2 18.8 avenue for increased irregular migration from Edo (%) State. The Arab Spring led to a breakdown in the rule Percentage reporting literacy in any 70.4 63.2 of law in places along the Mediterranean route, par- language (%) ticularly in Libya. A proliferation of smuggling net- Percentage reporting literacy in 70.3 53.7 English (12 years and above) (%) works in Libya and along transit countries in the Inactive labor force, male (15+) (%) 29.3 25.3 Mediterranean routes allowed the business of irregu- Inactive labor force, female (15+) (%) 35.6 38.7 lar migration to prosper in Nigeria. According to the Access to electricity (%) 80.1 63.7 Afro Barometer data from 2018, around 60 percent of Edo residents were considering emigration in the last year compared to 35 percent nationally. Data from challenges in Nigeria. When Ghanaian youths started Pew Research Center shows that the public perception migrating to Italy to work in tomato fields, several Edo of economic well-being was much lower in Edo com- residents also joined the seasonal agricultural labor pared to the national average in Nigeria (Figure BCS.3), migration to Italy. Many of the migrants from Edo despite Edo having a relatively better set of socioeco- were women who eventually switched from agricul- nomic outcomes compared to the national average tural labor to working in the sex trade to earn more (Table 1). Previous research has shown that a relative money.80 During the AIDS pandemic in Europe, more sense of well-being matters more for migration inten- women were trafficked from the Edo state to join the tions compared to absolute levels of well-being. booming sex trade business in Italy. Indeed, this shift is distinct and apparent in the current pattern of irregu- Most Nigerian youth seeking to migrate through lar migration from Nigeria to Italy. irregular routes obtain information through per- sonal networks and social media. According to a According World Bank data, women comprised 22 survey conducted by NOI Polls in 2018, in which percent of irregular migrants from Nigeria while only 9 around 19 percent of respondents came from Edo percent of irregular migrants from the rest of Sub-Sa- State, more than 80 percent of respondents indicated haran Africa were women.81 Even though the money that potential migrants obtain information on migra- that Nigerian workers made in Europe was minimal, tion procedures as well as life in Europe through per- exchanging this money into Naira improved their fam- sonal networks and social media channels (Figure ilies’ living conditions in Nigeria. Most migrant families BCS.4). Personal networks included potential agents were able to acquire properties, buy cars, and change and smugglers (also known as “Burgers”), who usually 80.  Zasha, J.; Effiong, T.; and Bindel, J. (2017), previously cited at note 78. 81.  World Bank (2018), previously cited at note 73. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 59 Figure BCS.3. Perceived economic well-being in Figure BCS.4. Most aspiring migrants receive Edo is lower than in the rest of Nigeria information on migration through social media channels and personal networks Percent 70 7% 1% 60 10% 50 50% 40 30 20 32% 10 0 Very good Somewhat Somewhat bad Very bad good Personal networks Social media Edo Nigerian average Other media Internet search Embassies and migration centers Source: Pew Research Center, Global Attitudes Survey (2018); https://www.pewre- search.org/global/datasets/ Source: NOI Polls, 2018 assist the migrants in making the irregular journey and migration. Structural hindrances to regular migration have innate incentives to exaggerate the benefits and are undisputable factors that fuel irregular migration. downplay the risks from irregular migration. While 70 Figure BCS.5 (Panel A) presents data from NOI Polls percent of respondents in the NOI Polls survey believe (2018) survey and shows that almost 6 in 10 respon- that irregular migrants have enough information to dents sampled across ten states in Nigeria, including make informed choices about their journey, around Edo State, consider obtaining a visa and a work permit 30 percent believe that potential migrants do not have to European countries to be difficult or very difficult. enough information on the risks involved. In Edo State, Specifically, respondents identified numerous factors Obi et al. (2020) estimate that social media use varies such as costs of getting a visa, stringent visa conditions, from 2 to 5 hours per day, and most people use social and the risk of not being successful responsible for the media to learn about migration, to maintain social ties difficulty in obtaining visas. Other reasons include the with family and friends abroad, and to search for trav- concentration of visa application centers in mainly eling opportunities abroad. Abuja and Lagos, waiting time to get a decision, and risk of fraud (Figure BCS.5 (Panel B)). The perceived difficulty in obtaining work visas and the high cost of legal migration deter youths from This case study shows that the practice of irregular Edo and elsewhere in Nigeria from opting for regular migration in Edo State is associated with a complex 60 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth set of historical, socioeconomic, cultural, and struc- Figure BCS.5. Most Nigerian youth believe tural factors. To sum up, these factors include histor- getting a visa to work in Europe as difficult or ical migration of seasonal workers from Edo to Italy, very difficult with high funding requirement proliferation of smuggling networks in key transit and strict interviews cited as reasons for countries and Nigeria, perceived levels of low welfare perceived difficulties among Edo residents, high influence of personal network and social media in migration decision-mak- Panel A: Perceived difficulty in obtaining a visa to ing, and barriers to migrate legally which includes lack European countries of legal pathways as well as perceived and real difficul- 3% ties in obtaining legal work authorization in countries of destination. 21% 25% 19% 32% Very difficult Difficult Neither easy nor difficult Very easy Easy Panel B: Reasons for perceived difficulty in obtaining a visa to Europe Fund required is much Strict interview Visa procedure is tedious Sigma on Nigerians in Europe Required money in applicant's account Fraudulant visa agent Time wasting Lack of proper documentation Too much requiremnet Lack of connection Corruption Others 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: NOI Polls, 2018 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 61 Remittances from Abroad (Figure B.11). In 2020, remittances are expected to sharply decline by 25 percent due to the global slow- down in economic activities and closures caused by the International remittances to Nigeria have COVID-19 pandemic.83 In 2017, more than 46 percent increased substantially in the last two of total remittances to Nigeria were sent from just decades but the cost of sending remittances two destination countries, the United States and the to Nigeria remains high. United Kingdom, which hosted about 35 percent of all migrants from Nigeria. Remittances sent by Nigerian migrants totaled more than US$25 billion in 2019, which made Nigeria the Remittance flows to Nigeria declined by 27.7 percent in sixth highest recipient of international remittances Q2 2020, compared to the same period last year, even globally. Remittances sent by international migrants though it accounted for over 40 percent of remit- have steadily increased over the last 15 years in Nigeria. tance flows to Sub-Saharan Africa.84 Other countries In 2017, remittances to Nigeria were almost four times in the region reported remittance growth, includ- larger than FDI and ODA combined and equaled Nige- ing but not limited to Kenya (9 percent) and Ghana (5 ria’s oil rents contributing to nearly 6 percent of Nige- percent).85 The decrease in flows to Nigeria is partially ria’s GDP.82 In 2019, however, remittances fell for the attributable to the increase in the naira/US$ informal first time after increasing for three consecutive years exchange rate by 27 percent as well as the impromptu Figure B.11. International remittances totaled nearly USD25 billion in 2019 amounting to around 5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP Personal remittances, received (current US$) Personal remittances, received (% of GDP) $30,000,000,000 9 8 $25,000,000,000 7 $20,000,000,000 6 5 $15,000,000,000 4 $10,000,000,000 3 2 $5,000,000,000 1 $- 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Personal remittances, received (current US$) Personal remittances, received (% of GDP) Source: World Bank’s World Development Indicators 82.  ODA includes official foreign aid received. World Bank calculations using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators databank. 83.  World Bank, 2020b Nigeria on the Move: A Journey to Inclusive Growth. Systematic Country Diagnostic. World Bank Group. Available at https://elibrary. worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/33347 84.  Dilip Ratha, Eung Ju Kim, Sonia Plaza, and Ganesh Seshan. 2021. “Resilience: COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens.” KNOMAD-World Bank, Washington, DC. 85. Ibid. 62 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth policy directive which required money transfer agent of sending remittances. Secondly, exclusive agreements banks to pay out remittances in foreign currency and between foreign currency transfer operators and agent not in the Nigerian naira.86 banks stifle competition and lead to high cost of service. Thirdly, the banking networks involved in transferring Despite the importance of remittances to the Nigerian money between countries lead to high remittance over- economy, the cost of sending international remittances head costs as each bank need to claim processing fees. to Nigeria has remained high over the last decade. The Transaction costs are expected to diminish if money is cost of sending international remittances to Nigeria sent digitally to Africa.87 from Africa, Europe, and North America is well above the SDG 17.3 target of 3 percent (Figure B.12). More remark- Reducing the number of regulations for transactions ably, costs are higher for intra-African corridors. While on small amounts, promoting competition among Nigeria-specific data or information on the triggers of money-transfer operators to drive down transaction high remittance costs is not readily available, there are charges, and using digital money transfer platforms to multiple factors that make cost of sending remittances eliminate over-the-counter transactions would help to sub-Saharan Africa higher in general. First, exces- reduce remittance costs. Reducing the cost of sending sive bank regulations implemented to prevent online remittances to Nigeria directly benefits Nigerian money transfer providers from facilitating money laun- households as it provides more resources for them to dering and terror-financing contribute to higher cost invest in their households and in the economy. Figure B.12. Average cost of sending remittances to Nigeria has remained high, particularly from within Africa 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average cost of sending US$ 200 from Africa to Nigeria (%) Average cost of sending US$ 200 from Western Countries to Nigeria (%) Source: World Bank (KNOMAD), Remittances Prices Worldwide 86. Ibid. 87.  Ischebeck, Jens: (2019) African Enquirer, Why Sending Money to Africa More Expensive than to Other Continents. Available at: https://www.theafrican- courier.de/special/business/why-sending-money-to-africa-more-expensive-than-other-continents/ Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 63 Insights on International population from Nigeria globally, the proportion of Migrants from Nigeria in the female Nigerian migrants in the OECD has steadily increased to 48 percent of the total migrant stock OECD in 2015. Over 80 percent of Nigerian migrants in the OECD are between the ages of 25 and 64. Nigerian migrants with an education level below secondary are more likely to be unem- Based on OECD categorization, over 50 percent of ployed and economically inactive in OECD Nigerian migrants have high levels of education (i.e., countries. Female Nigerian migrants have a they have completed tertiary education in 2015), 26 higher inactivity rate compared to males. percent have completed at least up to upper second- ary education, and the remaining 18 percent have The number of Nigerian migrants aged 15 and above completed lower-secondary education or below.88 in the OECD has grown threefold between 2000 and It is, however, important to note that this distribu- 2015, increasing from 261,046 in 2000 to 710,183 in tion varies by destination countries in the OECD. For 2015 (Table B.1). In line with the international migrant example, less than 20 percent of Nigerian migrants in Table B.2. Majority of Nigerian international migrants in the OECD have at least upper secondary level of education and are employed Category 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gender Male (%) 55 56 54 52 Female (%) 45 44 46 48 Age group 15-24 (%) 14 14 13 11 25-64 (%) 84 82 83 83 65+ (%) 2 4 4 6 Education Level Low (%) 16 8 16 18 Medium (%) 28 29 27 26 High (%) 53 62 55 54 Duration of Stay* 5 years or less (%) 34 27 27 23 5-10 years (%) 18 21 22 20 10+ years (%) 44 45 47 54 Unknown (%) 5 5 3 4 Labor Force Employed (%) 66 70 64 63 Unemployed (%) 8 8 12 10 Inactive (%) 24 20 23 26 Unknown (%) 1 1 1 1 Total 261,046 218,215 526,813 710,183 Source: World Bank calculations based on data from OECD Database on Immigrants and non-immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC). *Duration of Stay variable for the year 2000 contains information on 176,165 out of the total 261,046 migrants. 88.  See the methodological note on how OECD classifies education levels and labor force status at https://www.oecd.org/migration/mig/methodolo- gy-DIOC-2015-2016.pdf 64 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Italy had completed tertiary education in 2010 com- 27 percent in 2000 to 51 percent in 2015. Part of this pared to more than 60 percent in the United Kingdom could be due to the increase in demand for workers in and the United States.89 elementary occupation categories in OECD countries. In 2015, the top two occupation categories for Nige- Between 2000-2005, the share of Nigerian migrants rian migrants were Professionals in Science, Health, who have stayed in their countries of destination for and Technology (12 percent); and Workers in Elemen- more than 10 years has increased from 44 percent tary Occupation (11 percent).90 to 54 percent. The share of Nigerian migrants who have stayed for more than 10 years in their respec- Nigerian migrants with an education level below tive destination countries has increased substantially secondary are more likely to be unemployed and among female migrants, from 36 percent in 2000 to economically inactive in OECD countries. Over 60 53 percent in 2015, and among migrants who have percent of Nigerian migrants aged 15 and above completed secondary education level or below, from were employed, 10 percent were unemployed, and Figure B.13. Nigerian migrants in the OECD with below secondary level of education have higher unemployment and inactivity rates Panel A: Unemployment Rate Panel B: Inactivity Rate Percent Percent 20 60 18 50 16 14 40 12 10 30 8 20 6 4 10 2 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 Low Medium High Low Medium High Male Female Male Female Source: World Bank calculations based on OECD Database on Immigrants and non-immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC). 89.  Data for individual destination countries is not available for 2015. 90.  World Bank calculations based on OECD Database on Immigrants and non-immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC). Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 65 26 percent were economically inactive in 2015 (Table censuses, household surveys, and administrative data. 1). Female Nigerian migrants have a higher inactivity The last population and housing census in Nigeria was rate compared to males. Figure B.13 (Panel A) shows conducted in 2006 and while it does contain informa- that close to 14 percent of Nigerian migrants with tion on foreign nationals in Nigeria, it does not contain lower than secondary education were unemployed information on international migrants from Nigeria. compared to less than 10 percent of those who had The latest NLSS, conducted in 2018/19, does not have a higher education levels. Similarly, the inactivity rate specific section on international migration. The per- was almost twice as high among Nigerian migrants centage of households with international migrants, as who had not yet completed lower-secondary educa- described earlier, can be estimated from this data as the tion compared to those with at least a college degree share of households that report receiving cash or in-kind (Figure B.13 Panel B). The data from OECD also sug- remittances from abroad. However, neither motives nor gests that almost 25 percent of Nigerian migrants profiles of migrants can be estimated using the NLSS. with tertiary education or above were overqualified Similarly, Nigeria has conducted Labor Force Surveys for their occupation category in 2015.91 This suggests (LFS) at least once a year from 2010-2018. For certain that labor market returns for Nigerian migrants in years, this data is available quarterly. However, there are the OECD increases with education. no questions related to current or former international migration status of households and individuals. Migrants not only fill critical labor shortages but also pay taxes when they are employed in high-income The last and final potential source of data for interna- OECD countries. Labor market policies in destination tional migration is the administrative data. This data countries that facilitate the labor market integration can be collected, for example, from line ministries of migrants are often the ones that make the best use that issue required permits and clearances to outgoing of their skills. On the other hand, countries of origin migrants or from the departure cards of all outgoing can better prepare potential migrants with language migrants at the airport. The primary agency respon- and skills training and certification. Female Nigerian sible for collecting administrative data on cross-bor- migrants in the OECD had an inactivity rate that was 10 der migration flows is the Nigeria Immigration Service percentage points higher compared to male migrants. (NIS). According to the Migrant Resource Center They could be better supported to participate in the (MRC), this data on daily arrivals and departure is then OECD labor markets. made available to the National Population Commis- sion (NPopC) for analysis and aggregation.92 However, this information is not shared publicly, which limits an Data Gaps and Limitations understanding of the age, gender, intended destina- tion country, or purpose of the visit for outgoing inter- national migrations from Nigeria. Lack of regular, disaggregated data on inter- national migrants from Nigeria is a major In the absence of that information, the analysis pre- bottleneck in migration policy making in sented in the report relies heavily on the data that Nigeria. is made available through international organiza- tions such as the United Nations and OECD, and in Data related to international migration from countries some instances, estimates from the NLSS. While avail- of origin primarily stems from three sources: national able data does shed some insights on international 91.  The variable “overqualified” in the DIOC database measures whether migrants in the “high” education category are overqualified for their job category. 92.  Migrants Resource Centre (MRC) (2021): “Types of Migration-Related Data Collected in Public Institutions”: https://mrc.nelexnigeria.com/basic-page/ types-migration-related-data-collected-public-institutions 66 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth migration from Nigeria, it leaves many questions motivation for leaving. Household surveys are also unanswered. Some of the major data gaps that prevent well-equipped to understand the profile of recently an understanding of international migration are sum- returned international migrants and their motiva- marized below: tions for returning to Nigeria. • A dedicated section devoted to international migra- • The annual breakdown of international migrants tion can also help shed further insights on the issue by age, gender, destination country, and purpose of irregular migration. For example, it can help in of visit can help to establish basic facts on the stock understanding the costs that migrants paid or the and flows of Nigerian international migrants. This networks that migrants relied on for making these data would also allow an estimate of migration dangerous journeys. flows within ECOWAS and differentiate between • Finally, administrative data from line ministries and the motivation for intra-continental and extra-con- agencies can be disseminated in a timely manner tinental migrants. for a better understanding of issues that migrants • Collecting data on international migration through face abroad. For example, data can be collected household surveys such as the NLSS allows for through Nigerian embassies and consulates abroad further exploration on the profile of migrants that keep track of migrants who seek support or fall that leave Nigeria in terms of educational attain- victim to exploitation. ment, previous employment history as well as Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 67 References Ehrhart, Helene, Le Goff, Maelan, Rocher Emmanuel, Singh, Raju. 2014. “Does migration foster exports? Evidence from Afro Barometer. Nigeria Data. Available at: https://afrobarometer. Africa,” Policy Research Working Paper Series 6739, The World org/data/328 Bank. Asongu, Simplice. 2013. The Impact of Health Worker Migration Eurostat. Asylum and first-time asylum applicants by citizenship, on Development Dynamics: Evidence of Wealth-effects age and sex Annual aggregated data. Available at: https://ec.eu- from Africa. The European journal of health economics: ropa.eu/eurostat/web/asylum-and-managed-migration/ HEPAC: health economics in prevention and care. 15. 10.1007/ data/database s10198-013-0465-4. Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2019. Africa’s youth: Jobs or Migration. Bah, T.L. and Batista, C. 2018. Understanding willingness to Available at: https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/sites/default/ migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment files/2020-01/2019_Forum_Report_2.pdf (No. wp1803). Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia, NOVAFRICA. Frédéric Docquier and Hillel Rapoport. 2012. Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development. Journal of Economic Literature Vol. Carling, J. 2006. Migration, Human Smuggling and Trafficking 50, No. 3, September 2012 (Pp. 681-730) from Nigeria to Europe. IOM Migration Research Series. Retrieved from http://www.iom.int Gibson, J. and McKenzie, D., 2011. Eight questions about brain drain. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3), pp.107-28. Catia Batista, Aitor Lacuestac, Pedro C.Vicente. 2012. Testing the ‘brain gain’ hypothesis: Micro evidence from Cape Verde. Global Migration Group. 2014. Migration, Employment, and Journal of Development Economics. Volume 97, Issue 1, Youth. Perspective from West Africa. Available at: https:// January 2012, Pages 32-45 globalmigrationgroup.org/system/files/10._Chapter_7.pdf Chand, S. and Clemens, M.A., 2019. Human Capital IOM. 2018. Enabling a better Understanding of Migration Investment under Exit Options: Evidence from a Natural Flows and (Its Root-Causes) From Nigeria Towards Europe. Quasi-Experiment. Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Available at: https:// displacement.iom.int/reports/enabling-better-under- Clemens, Michael. 2008. Skilled emigration and skill creation: A standing-migration-flows-and-its-root-causes-nigeria-to- quasi-experiment. wards-europe Dilip Ratha, Eung Ju Kim, Sonia Plaza, and Ganesh Seshan. 2021. National Bureau of Statistics, 2020. National Living Standard “Resilience: COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens.” Survey 2019. Available at: https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary KNOMAD-World Bank, Washington, DC. National Universities Commission. 2019. Nigerian University Di Maio, M., Leone Sciabolazza, V. and Molini, V., 2020. Migration System, Statistical Digest 2018. Available at: https://nuc.edu. in Libya: A Spatial Network Analysis. Policy Research Working ng/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2018%20Statistical%20 Paper; No. 9110. World Bank, Washington, DC. Digest%20Full%20version.pdf Easterly, William and Nyarko, Yaw. 2008. Is the Brain Drain Good NOI Polls. 2018. Study on irregular migration to Europe: for Africa? Brookings Global Economy and Development Understanding the motivations for irregular migration. Working Paper No. 19, Abuja, Nigeria. (Available upon request) 68 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Pew Research Center. 2018. Global attitude survey. Available at: World Bank, General Household Panel Surveys. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/datasets/ https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3557/ related-materials Obi, C., Bartolini, F., & D’Haese, M. 2020a. Digitalization and migration: the role of social media and migrant networks World Bank, Remittances Prices Worldwide. Available at: https:// in migration decisions. An exploratory study in Nigeria. remittanceprices.worldbank.org/en/data-download Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance, 1–16. https://doi. org/10.1108/DPRG-08-2020-0101 World Bank. 2015. More, and more productive, jobs for Nigeria: a profile of work and workers (English). Washington, D.C.: OECD, Database on Immigrants in OECD and non-OECD World Bank Group. Countries: DIOC. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/ dioc.htm World Bank. 2020. Nigeria on the Move: A Journey to Inclusive Growth. Systematic Country Diagnostic. World Bank Group. World Bank. 2018. Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration and Labor Markets (Overview). Policy Research Report. World World Bank. 2020. Jumpstarting Inclusive Growth: Unlocking Bank, Washington, DC the Productive Potential of Nigeria’s People and Resource Endowments (English). Nigeria Economic Update Shrestha, M. 2017. Push and pull: A study of international migra- Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. tion from Nepal. The World Bank. UNCHR, Nigerian refugees in Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. Shrestha, S.A., 2017. No man left behind: Effects of emigration Available at: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/nige- prospects on educational and labour outcomes of non-mi- riasituation#_ga=2.252982669.563130852.1594598700- grants. The Economic Journal, 127(600), pp.495-521. 1037942665.1594311607 Stark, O. and Taylor, J.E. 1991. Migration incentives, migration UNHCR, Refugee Statistics Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/ types: The role of relative deprivation. The economic journal, refugee-statistics/download/?url=X4ti 101(408), pp.1163-1178. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Times Higher Education Group. 2020. World University 2019a. International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. Rankings. Available at: https://www.timeshighereducation. com/world-university-rankings/2020/world-ranking#!/ Vernazza, D. 2013. Does absolute or relative income motivate page/0/length/25/locations/NG/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/ migration? London School of Economics, Mimeo. cols/stats Zasha, James; Effiong, Timothy & Bindel, Julie. 2017. Support to World Bank. 2020. COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens. human trafficking prevention in the Niger Delta. Market Migration and Development Brief no. 32. World Bank Development in the Niger Delta (MADE) is a UK DFID- funded program. Available at: https://pindfoundation.org/ World Bank. 2018. Asylum seekers in the European Union: build- wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Final-Report-on-Edo-Human- ing evidence to inform policy making (English). Washington, Trafficking.pdf D.C.: World Bank Group. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 69 Part C: Missed Opportunities and the Way Forward: Institutional and Policy Assessment of Labor Migration Management Systems in Nigeria 70 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth International Migration as a Jobs international migrants from Nigeria increased three- Strategy fold in the last three decades and the remittances sent by Nigerian migrants in the diaspora comprised 5 percent of Nigeria’s GDP in 2019. Developing countries are increasingly pursu- ing labor migration as an employment strat- Despite the benefits, the recent surge in irregu- egy, but the topic of international migration lar migration and human trafficking from Nigeria has received its fair share of negative atten- and other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe and tion in the last few years. the abuse and exploitation of vulnerable migrants in transit and destination countries have laid bare the International labor migration is increasingly viewed costs and spurred an increasing call to action from as an important employment strategy for developing the international community. While increased mobil- countries. As highlighted in Section B, the number of ity will create huge potential for increased welfare of international migrants globally has increased from 154 migrants and sending communities, realizing these million in 1990 to 272 million in 2019, outpacing global gains will require careful facilitation of labor flows and population growth.93 According to the ILO, in 2017, a strong support apparatus to avoid low-level equilib- almost 65 percent of all international migrants were ria. Within this context, Nigeria’s overseas employment migrant workers or labor migrants, making them the system can be assessed to isolate areas where policy largest single category of migrants in the world.94 From interventions can minimize the costs and maximize 1990 to 2019, global remittances increased tenfold, the benefits associated with international migration. rising from US$ 68 billion to US$ 654 billion.95 Well-managed and regularized migration schemes Institutional Assessment of the directly benefit: migrants through productive employ- Federal Overseas Employment ment and income-earning opportunities; migrant System in Nigeria households through remittances, investments in human capital of family members, and as a cushion against income shocks; and sending countries by bring- Nigeria’s Overseas Employment System at the ing to fruition unrealized economic gains. However, it federal level can be assessed using a life cycle is important to minimize the costs and risks associated framework to highlight policies and mea- with migration that can lead to suboptimal outcomes sures that govern the international migra- for migrants, sending and receiving countries. tion process and break it down by different stages of a migrant’s journey. International migration has received increased atten- tion in Nigeria, which has come partly as a recogni- The Federal Overseas Employment System in Nigeria tion of some of the gains from migration but largely can be assessed using a life cycle framework. Figure from the realization of risks and costs associated with C.1 presents the migration life cycle framework which a weak migration management system. The number of generally has four stages.96 The first stage is pre-decision 93.  United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2019a. International Migration Outlook, 2019 revisions. 94.  Popova, N.; and Ozel, M. H. (2018) ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers: Results and Methodology. International Labor Office. Available at https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_652001/lang--en/index.htm 95.  World Development Indicators (2020). Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators 96.  Cho, Y. and Majoka, Z. (2020). “Pakistan Jobs Diagnostic: Promoting Access to Quality Jobs for All.” Available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/33317 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 71 when workers decide on whether to migrate based on tools and 15 key ingredients—actions that are at the an understanding of the costs and benefits of migra- disposal of Nigerian policy makers at various stages of tion. The second stage is pre-departure when workers the migration cycle and are required for a well-func- who pursue the decision to migrate obtain neces- tioning labor migration system. Policy makers can use sary legal documents, take up measures to improve these actions to improve the facilitation of safe and their employability (skills) and awareness, and com- orderly migration, prevent irregular migration, and plete logistical preparations for migration including support the return and re-integration of migrants. obtaining the necessary finances to secure migration. Even before the migration process is set in motion The third stage is during migration when migrants are for countries, national policies, and BLAs/MOUs can employed in destination countries. The fourth and help to set the standard and provide the legal struc- final stage is post-return when some (but not necessarily ture and governance framework for the movement of all) migrants decide to return to Nigeria, either volun- workers from Nigeria to destination countries. Before tarily or involuntarily, upon the end of the necessary workers depart, public and private intermediation ser- legal permits to stay in destination countries. vices allow workers to search and apply for jobs that suit their skills as well as provide contractual terms for Each stage of the life-cycle framework has two aspects employment abroad. Similarly, streamlined processes related to policy making: (i) governance tools that can for receiving travel documentation help workers with be used to set the terms of policies governing each the logistics of traveling. stage; and (ii) programs, actions or services that the government can perform to assist migrants at each While abroad, workers often rely on legal support stage. Figure C.1 presents four governance related accessed through Nigerian embassies and labor Figure C.1. Four stages of the Migration Life Cycle Framework Pre-Decision Pre-departure During Migration Post-Migration Governance Governance Governance Governance • National Migration • National Migration • Bilateral Labor • National Migration Policy/Act Policy/Act • Agreements/MOUs • Policy/Act • Bilateral Labor • Bilateral Labor • Bilateral Social Security • Bilateral Labor • Agreements/MOUs • Agreements/MOUs Arrangements • Agreements/MOUs • Policy on Diaspora • Policy on Diaspora Services/Action Services/Action Matters Matters • Programs/actions • Travel/Visa to stop irregular documentation Services/Action Services/Action migration • Public/Private • Assistance and • Reintegration • Facilitation of labor Employment Representation through assistance through flows through Intermediation Services Labor Attaches health and social government-to- • Pre-departure orientation • Diaspora services and protection services government • Skills training/ networks • Information and agreements Certification • Portability of Benefits referral for wage • Health/Medical Screening • Remittance services and self-employment Production and dissemination of data on migration for evidence-based policy making Institutional coordination among stakeholders, including with stakeholders in countries of destination Source: Adapted from Cho and Majoka (2020) 72 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth attachés as well as through diaspora networks. Remit- that provide relevant mandates for participat- tance services allow workers to send money to their ing stakeholders but lacks key elements such as Bilateral Labor Agreements to facilitate safe and families back home in Nigeria through formal chan- remunerative migration nels and at a reasonable price. Upon return from a labor stint abroad, workers rely on support from gov- The National Migration Policy (NMP), adopted in ernment agencies for return and re-integration ser- 2015, provides the overarching principles for the vices, including support to apply for loans and obtain 2014 National Policy on Labor Migration (NPLM). The employment to deploy their new trade and skills. For NMP emphasizes the need for a national labor market migrants returned involuntarily, health and social assessment, regulates and monitors PEAs, and aims at protection services are essential to deal with psy- placing a limit on the promotion of overseas employ- chosocial issues, especially for those who have faced ment in sectors where excessive labor migration is abuse and harassment during the migration process. expected to adversely affect national economic and Issues such as production and dissemination of data social development. and coordination among stakeholders involved in the migration process cut across different stages of the Other legal enactments which manage migration migration life cycle. issues include: Trafficking in Persons (Prohibition) Enforcement and Administration Act, 2015 which aims to address the ills of human trafficking and Pre-decision migrant-smuggling; the Immigration Act 2015, and the Immigration Regulations 1963, both of which mandate Nigeria’s Federal Overseas Employment System is the National Immigration Service to protect the right regulated by policy and institutional frameworks of migrants, issue travel documents, and manage Figure C.2. Despite being one of the earliest countries to have BLAs in place, Nigeria has lagged behind peer countries in the number of BLAs it has established with destination countries 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Source: World Bank Calculations using data from Chilton and Posner (2018) Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 73 Nigeria’s borders, with the aim of curtailing irregular comparator countries. Both Nigeria and the Philip- migration and human trafficking. pines signed their first BLA around 1960. Since then, the Philippines has established approximately 30 BLAs Despite several policy documents on ways to lever- to place Filipinos in overseas jobs. Bangladesh and age managed migration approaches, Nigeria cur- Indonesia both entered into their first BLA in the 1980s rently does not have a single BLA in place to support and now have three and five times the number, respec- the overseas placement of Nigerian migrants. Figure tively, of BLAs that Nigeria does. C.2 shows the evolution of BLAs in Nigeria and several Box C.1. Current Channels to Migrate Formally from Nigeria to Europe Nigerians can apply for study visas, work-permits employers. The project is now moving to develop or visas for select occupation categories in most a long-term pipeline of quality talent by investing countries in Europe. Additionally, there are recent in skills building in Nigeria, focusing particularly programs facilitated through international orga- on developing entrepreneurship skills. The sec- nizations that aim to provide temporary employ- ond cohort is planned as an all-female group. This ment opportunities to Nigerians in certain sectors could be a good avenue for Nigerian ICT talents to and destination countries. The list below provides further develop their skills in Lithuania and deploy a summary of existing programs as well as visa those skills in Nigeria upon return. schemes available for labor migrants from Nigeria Source: https://digitalexplorers.eu/ and interviews with key to Europe. stakeholders b. IOM-MATCH – Hiring African Talents a. Digital Explorers MATCH is a 36-month initiative funded by the EU Nigeria and Lithuania entered into an Agreement and aimed at connecting highly skilled people in in 2019 to train Nigerian ICT talents and promote Nigeria and Senegal to private sector companies in their migration through a 6-to-12-month intern- Belgium, Italy, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg. ship and career advancement program. The The project focuses on ICT skills. The salient aim is project, which is financed by the EU’s Migration to create a pool of talent from which companies can Partnership Facility (MPF), targeted 50 young grad- draw, while also facilitating collaboration between uates. Only 15 were eventually selected. In addi- companies and remote working options during tion to technical training, the program provides COVID-19. The program also plans to implement cultural and soft skills training for participants. skills development, capacity building, and knowl- The youth who join this program are expected to edge sharing between participating countries. The return to Nigeria at the end of the internship with project is implemented in multiple steps. First, pri- the expertise acquired in Lithuania. Project and vate sector companies send their vacancy profiles migration costs are covered by the project, while to the IOM office in Belgium and Luxembourg. the salaries are covered by the employers. A sti- IOM then sources candidates in Senegal and Nige- pend cost was shared between the project and the ria using a private recruitment company, Aldelia. 74 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Box C.1. Cont. Workers are then screened by IOM, local employ- within 8 months to downgrade to the position of ment agencies in Senegal and Nigeria, and Aldelia, health care assistant and continue to work, rather and a shortlist is presented to the interested com- than losing their immigration status (as was the panies in destination countries. After online inter- case before). This category is new, and take-up is views and company specific tests, talent can then yet to be seen (due to COVID-19) and extensively move to Europe to work. MATCH chose to work with evaluated. Senegal and Nigeria because of the two countries’ different language profiles (French and English, respectively), developed ICT infrastructure, and d. The German Skilled Immigration Act ambitious plans for job creation and growth. In March 2020, Germany enacted a new Skilled Source: International Organization for Migration (IOM) Belgium & Immigration Act. The Act permits anyone with a Luxembourg. “MATCH – Hiring African Talents.” https://belgium.iom. int/match vocational qualification, in any subject, to move to Germany and obtain a work visa as long as they sat- isfy two conditions (i) they hold a qualification that c. UK Health and Care Visa is recognized in Germany, and (ii)they have a good job offer. Some main prerequisites for a candidate The UK has developed a new Points Based Immigra- to obtain this job offer are: tion System which came into effect in January 2021. One of the visas that has been introduced within i. Good knowledge of the German language this context is the new Health and Care Visa.1 Eli- (e.g., up to level B1) which is usually required gibility for this work visa includes an existing job by German employers even though that is not offer for the candidate. To be eligible, an applicant required by the Act. must have a job offer from a relevant employer ii. A Recognition notice issued by the German within the health and care sector, be undertaking Chamber of Crafts, recognizing the equiva- a specific job role within the visa rules (e.g. doc- lence of the foreign qualification to similar tor, nurse, adult social care professional), be paid German qualification. over £20,480, and speak English up to level B1. The iii. Where a German company offers a train- fees are substantially lower than normal immigra- ing (as against employment) opportunity, tion fees, there are no annual caps or quotas, and the potential trainee must be able to speak no requirement for employers to advertise locally. German up to level B1 and financially sup- Candidates would have the ability to transition an port themselves for the duration of their initial five-year visa into permanent residence and stay.2 Around €950 per month would be eventually citizenship. needed for this. Potential trainees who can afford the financial implication could use With this visa, there is option for nurses who are this avenue and possibly secure a job in not able to pass the nursing examination (OSCE) Germany after the training. 1.  Gov.UK. “Health and Care Worker visa.” https://www.gov.uk/health-care-worker-visa/your-job 2.  Michaelle Nintcheu and Alexandra Köbler. 2021. “How can I recruit a qualified professional from abroad? What employers need to know.” Berlin: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. https://www.make-it-in-germany.com/fileadmin/MiiG_Unternehmen/PDFs/ Unternehmen/Unterstuetzung_finden/BMWi_Leitfaden-fuer_Arbeitgeber_EN_02.2021.pdf Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 75 Box C.1. Cont. e. Belgium’s Highly Skilled Worker Visa roles being “bottleneck vacancies” (which include ICT professionals).3 Belgium also has a decentral- Since 1999, Belgian laws have allowed highly skilled ized immigration policy which allows each of its workers who have a higher education diploma four regions (Brussels, Flanders, Walloon, and the and a job offer with a salary above a threshold, to German community) to establish its own labor be able to obtain a work permit without employ- market policies and public employment offices.4 ers having to subject the role to labor market tests. ICT professionals are allowed to come to any of the Employers of less skilled roles must prove those four regions under this facilitated migration route roles cannot be undertaken by local workers either to live and work for a period of up to three years through individual assessments or through those under a renewable visa. 3.  Ramboll. “Bottleneck Vacancies in Belgium.” https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=12644&langId=en#:~:text=Bottleneck%20 vacancies%20are%20a%20widespread,lack%20of%20skills%20(15%25) 4.  Rachel Swain. 2020. “Work in Belgium.” Last updated July 2020. https://www.prospects.ac.uk/jobs-and-work-experience/working-abroad/ work-in-belgium Pre-departure local PEAs were licensed by FMLE for local recruit- ments while 34 PEAs were licensed for international Despite early momentum, Nigeria has failed to recruitments across the 36 states of the Nigerian capitalize on some of the tools that it developed in Federation. the last decade to deploy labor migrants abroad. • Creating a jobs-matching platform known as NELEX—the National Electronic Labor Exchange— In 2004, the federal government, in its efforts to through which job seekers were meant to be manage organized labor migration and to harness the matched with existing local or overseas job development benefits, established an International opportunities. Labor Migration Desk (ILMD) within FMLE. In collab- oration with IOM and various stakeholders, and with funding from the EU, FLME recorded notable successes Despite these early successes, Nigeria failed to capital- in improving the managed labor migration structure ize on the momentum. FMLE’s involvement was sus- in Nigeria, including: pended in early 2018 because of the inability of relevant government agencies to deal with allegations of mal- • Establishing three Migrant Resource Centers treatment being meted out to Nigerian labor migrants (MRCs) in Abuja, Lagos, and Benin City where job- in destination countries. As a result, FMLE can no seekers, potential migrants, and returnee migrants longer control the incidences of such placements, or can obtain information on employment and skills provide any information or data relating to the partic- enhancement, as well as relevant information on ulars of successful labor migrants from Nigeria. Fol- safe migration, rights at work, and referral services. lowing the suspension of international recruitment on • Licensing and monitoring of PEAs to prevent irreg- the NELEX platform, PEAs must now conclude agree- ular migration, human trafficking, and unfair labor ments with foreign employment agencies on the place- practices, and to forestall abuse in the recruitment ment of successful job seekers in destination countries process. From January 2015 to March 2019, 1,273 without recourse to FMLE. 76 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth During Migration In the meantime, the Nigerians in Diaspora Com- mission (NiDCOM) was established in 2019. NiDCOM Nigeria stands to benefit from the human, techni- offers a suitable platform to galvanize support for cal and financial capabilities that come with the Nigerian migrants in distress through diaspora net- important share of Nigerians in the diaspora. works in the absence of formal labor attachés. In 2017, Nigeria issued its first Diaspora Bond in the interna- The draft National Policy on Diaspora Matters (2016) views tional capital market, which was oversubscribed by the contributions from the diaspora as bidirectional. 130 percent, raising the sum of $300 million at coupon From the government, the policy seeks commitments to rate of 5.625 per cent for five years. 97 Issuance of the a set of identified challenges: data management on the second diaspora bond is currently being discussed to diaspora and remittances; the inability of the diaspora raise further resources from Nigerians abroad. to exercise voting rights in Nigeria; national security concerns; high remittance costs; inadequate infrastruc- Several gaps currently plague the ability of Nigerian ture; agreements on avoidance of double taxation; lack policy makers to support current migrants. Despite of framework for the transfer of skills and technology, strong advocacy from the National Policy on Labor and a lack of integration frameworks for returnees. The Migration (2014) to assign labor attachés to Nige- draft diaspora policy is currently awaiting endorsement rian diplomatic missions abroad to promote welfare by the Federal Executive Council (FEC). Figure C.3. Among top 10 countries receiving highest remittances, the cost of sending remittances to Nigeria is the second highest Percent 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Bangladesh Mexico Pakistan Egypt, Arab Philippines India Ukraine Vietnam Nigeria China Rep. Source: World Bank-World Development Indicators. Note: Average transaction cost of sending remittance to a specific country is the average of the total transaction cost in percentage of the amount to a specific country. 97.  Issuing the Bond gave Nigeria the opportunity to begin trading on the London Stock Exchange, making history as the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to achieve such a feat. The country also became the first African country to issue a bond targeted at retail investors in the United States. The approval of the U.S. SEC was indicative that the highest level of transparency and accountability in the economic process was attained. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 77 of Nigerian migrants, there has been no progress on control measures, in awareness campaigns to stop advancing these discussions. trafficking, and to create jobs domestically, including for returned Nigerian migrants. Various international As described in Part B, the cost of sending remittances donors including the EU, GIZ, and others offer support to Nigeria is one of the highest in terms of charges and to returning migrants. Many of the returned migrants commissions paid by Nigerians abroad. Figure C.3 were repatriated following being held in detention shows that among the top 10 countries which received centers or exploitative labor situations in Libya and the highest remittances in 2017, Nigeria is second only other transit countries. to China in terms of the average transaction cost of sending remittances. The Central Bank of Nigeria More migrants could return following the COVID- (CBN) regulates and controls financial activities relat- 19 induced economic crisis in destination coun- ing to banks and other financial institutions, including tries, that has eroded income-earning opportunities governance and policy making relating to the remit- for migrants. Returning migrants need to be better tance of funds into Nigeria. However, it is not clear equipped with information and referral on services whether CBN plays any role in determining the cost of available in Nigeria (such as applying for business remitting funds to Nigeria since international finan- loan, investing options in Nigeria, getting accredited cial institutions, which are not regulated by CBN, are for skills, searching for jobs). Better health and social usually involved. NiDCOM has ongoing engagements protection services should be provided to returning with CBN aimed achieving a reduction in the cost of migrants who are often victim of abuses and face stig- receiving remittances into the country. matization for their failed migration attempt upon return to Nigeria.99 Proactive outreach well before and immediately after return, intensive follow-up Post-return and handholding after the provision of information and referral services, and a formal link to the services While most of the focus in recent times has rightly offered for preventing irregular migration and pro- gone toward providing assistance for returning moting better migration could put returning migrants irregular migrants, it is important to acknowledge on a sustainable economic path in Nigeria. NiDCOM the role played by returnees in spurring innova- offers a suitable platform for hosting these services. tion in Nigeria. At the same time, it is also important to acknowledge the More than 15,000 Nigerians, mostly irregular migrants positive contributions that returning migrants make to in destination and transit countries, have been repa- Nigeria and enact policies that enable those contribu- triated from various countries since 2016. Since the tions. For example, returning migrants provide tech- onset of the migration crisis in Europe in 2016 and 2017, nology and skill transfers to countries of origin such as more than € 770 million have been invested in migra- Nigeria. In 2012, two Harvard Business School gradu- tion related projects in Nigeria, through the Euro- ates from Nigeria cofounded Jumia, a Nigerian e-com- pean Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) project financed by merce site and one of the first tech start-ups in the the EC.98 Most of these funds are invested in border country.100 Since then tech firms have been established 98.  The Correspondent, 2019. “A breakdown of Europe’s €1.5bn migration spending in Nigeria.” Available at: https://thecorrespondent. com/150/a-breakdown-of-europes-eur1-5bn-migration-spending-in-nigeria/19837235550-e86e62a5 99.  The New Humanitarian (2020). “Nigerians Return from Europe Face Stigma and Growing Hardship.” Available at https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/ news-feature/2020/07/28/Nigeria-migrants-return-Europe 100.  Ramachandran, V., Obado-Joel, J., Fatai, R., Masood, J. S., and Omakwu, B. (2019). The New Economy of Africa: Opportunities for Nigeria’s Emerging Technology Sector. Available at https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/new-economy-africa-opportunities-nigerias-emerging-technology-sector.pdf 78 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth in the fields of energy, agriculture, banking, transpor- The creation of NiDCOM has strengthened Nigeria’s tation, logistics, health, and finance.101 position to benefit from the diaspora abroad and to serve migrants in need or in distress. NiDCOM also works closely with CBN on the financial needs of the Stakeholder Analysis diaspora. CBN regulates banks and formal financial agencies governing the flow of remittances into the country, but it is unclear how much of a role it can play Multiple federal-level stakeholders have vary- in regulating financial institutions in destination coun- ing degrees of mandates relating to interna- tries to reduce the remittance fees. Notwithstanding, tional labor migration but only a few engage CBN is actively taking steps to understand the origins in labor migration activities. of high remittance fees and taking an evidence-based approach toward using policy levers to support the Figure C. 4 shows the key Nigerian stakeholders flow of remittances through formal channels. The involved in the labor migration process. The Ministry NBS and the National Population Commission have of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has the mandate to negotiate the mandate to provide data on potential, current, and sign BLAs and MOUs with countries of destina- and returning migrants. Finally, the National Com- tion. The Federal Ministry of Justice works with MFA to mission for Refugees, Migrants, and Internally Dis- negotiate and sign the agreements while the Ministry placed Persons coordinates efforts to receive returnee of Interior, through the Nigeria Immigration Service, migrants. FMLE is tasked with providing employment issues travel documents to prospective labor emigrants services to returnees while the Federal Ministry of Edu- and helps ratify relevant international agreements. cation has the mandate to provide technical accredita- The National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking tion and certification of skills for returning migrants. in Persons takes action and raises awareness against the ills of irregular migration. Various TWGs participate in advancing the labor migration agenda in Nigeria. Following the approval FMLE is the lead agency that oversees employment-re- of the NPLM by the FEC in 2014, a Social Partner Advi- lated activities, including international labor emigra- sory Committee (SPAC) and a Technical Working Com- tion, and is responsible for issuing operating licenses mittee (TWC) were inaugurated in August 2016, in line to PEAs which engage in either local or international with the operational framework of the NMP. SPAC and recruitment of labor, or both. International recruit- TWC comprise key ministries, departments, and agen- ment of labor from Nigeria is to be jointly executed cies of government, social partners, and civil society by FMLE and the PEA involved. This supervisory role organizations identified by the policy to oversee allows FMLE to ensure that the PEAs comply with rele- and coordinate its implementation. The NMP has a vant laws and regulations. However, in practice, some comprehensive exposition on promoting migrants’ PEAs are known to bypass the requirement of involv- welfare, although this does not extend to family rein- ing the ministry and instead engage in autonomous tegration and social reintegration of work and health. recruitment of labor migrants. FMLE also oversees The policy details de jure institutional arrangements ILMD which currently operates three MRCs to provide through five technical TWG: pre-departure orientation and training. The respon- sibility for providing health certificates to potential • Standing Committee on Diaspora Matters: migrants lies with the Federal Ministry of Health. Led by NiDCOM, the committee focuses on 101. Ibid Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 79 Figure C.4. A diverse range of Nigerian stakeholders are involved in the labor migration management process at the Federal Level Pre-Departure Post-Migration National Electronic Labor National Commission for Nigeria Immigration Service Exchange, International International Labor Refugees, Migrants and • Issues passports and relevant Labor Migration Desk Migration Desk – FMLE Internally Displaced travel documents • Acts as a labor intermediation • Ensures protection of Persons and National platform collecting employment and social rights Agency for the Prohibition Ministry of Foreign Affairs information on jobseekers of Nigerian workers abroad of Trafficking in Persons  • Negotiates Bilateral and international employers; • Coordinates efforts to  Agreements and Memoranda registers PEAs Nigerians in Diaspora receive returnee migrants of Understanding with Commission and reintegrate them into countries of destination National Board for Technical • Offers support to diasporas in the society Education – Federal Ministry need abroad Federal Ministry of Justice of Education • Helps facilitate transfers of Federal Ministry of Labor and Ministry of Interior • Helps ratify relevant • Provides skills training and skills, technology, and and Employment certification to potential investment from the diaspora • Provides employment international conventions migrants services to returning/ on migrants Central Bank of Nigeria repatriated migrants and National Agency for the Migrant Resource Centers, • Regulates banks and other  helps them integrate in Prohibition of Trafficking International Labor financial institutions; and Nigeria’s labor market in Persons Migration Desk governs the remittance of • Helps create awareness • Serves as a “one-stop shop” funds into Nigeria, including National Board for Technical against human trafficking where intending, actual, and determining the remittance Education – Federal Ministry returning migrants access commission/charge of Education Federal Ministry of Labor relevant migration • Equips institutions to and Employment information on legal, National Bureau of provide technical • Develops processes for the organized and humane Statistics and National accreditation of skills of registration and licensing of migration, rights and Population Commission returning migrants genuine Private Employment protection of migrants • Has the mandate to provide Agencies (PEAs) and update data on migrants Federal Ministry of Health abroad • Issues necessary medical certification to prospective migrants Pre-Decision During Migration Source: Based on World Bank consultations with Nigerian stakeholders diaspora mobilization, remittances, and diaspora Management Strategy to harmonize migration engagement. data across all Ministries, Departments and Agen- • Working Group on Labor Migration: Led by FMLE, cies (MDAs). this group deals with expatriate quotas, labor • Stakeholders Forum on Border Management: Led exchange, and the protection of migrant workers. by NIS, the group focuses on issues relating to the • Working Group on Migration and Return, Readmis- ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, sion and Reintegration (RRR): This group developed border security, trafficking in persons, and smug- a National RRR Standard Operating Procedure and gling of migrants. is comprised of multiple ministries and govern- ment agencies. • Working Group on Migration Data Management Despite a plethora of stakeholders in the labor migra- Strategy: Led by National Population Commission tion management process, Nigeria currently has (NPopC), this group developed a Migration Data neither a strategy for accessing labor markets in other 80 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth countries nor a mechanism for marketing its skilled Prominent gaps in the Nigerian labor sending system labor to potential destinations where matching skills include: (i) absence of BLAs and MOUs to strategi- shortages exist. Rather, the labor migration objec- cally place labor abroad; (ii) failure to systematically tives expressed in the NPLM come from a develop- create and advance regulations on PEAs to place Nige- ment failure perspective where push factors dominate rians into overseas employment; (iii) failure to appoint the motivations for migration, and retaining talented labor attachés in Nigeria’s global diplomatic missions human capital is prescribed to avoid a drain on eco- to advance the welfare of Nigerian workers; (iv) lack nomic growth in the country. This perspective, which of understanding of destination-sector specific gaps affects both sending and receiving countries, has not where Nigerian nationals can help fill labor shortages; considered international migration as a labor market (v) lack of data to advance migration policymaking; opportunity for Nigeria. (vi) high costs of sending remittances to Nigeria; and (vii) ad-hoc and donor driven return and reintegration Nigeria has scant structures in place to reap bene- approaches as emergency measures without programs fits from international labor migration. This chapter and policies to systematically benefit from the skills of introduced a migration life cycle framework and pre- returning migrants. sented 16 essential features against which the current international labor migration practices in Nigeria The current labor migration landscape, however, pro- were benchmarked. Even with a plethora of agen- vides a huge opportunity to transform international cies and stakeholders working on managing migra- migration to a labor market strategy in Nigeria. Some tion, significant gaps emerge when Nigeria’s system is areas for policy interventions to address the emerging compared to a mature system such as the Philippines’ gaps, and areas for future research are highlighted in (Case Study 2). the subsequent section. Table CCS.1 compares Nigeria and Philippines against Case Study 2: Benchmarking select economic and demographic indicators. As a Nigeria’s Federal Overseas result of the BLAs signed by the Philippines starting in the 1960s, there were already more than 2 million Employment System to the Filipino migrants in destination countries in 1990, Philippines a number that Nigeria, despite its population being double the size of the Philippines, has not reached in The Philippines provides a best practice model for low- 2019. Filipinos abroad sent more than US$35 billion and middle-income countries to leverage the potential to the Philippines in 2019. While the remittances sent of managed migration. Influenced by a huge demand by Nigerian migrants abroad have increased dramat- for migrant workers from the Gulf Cooperation Coun- ically from 1990 to 2019, the relatively smaller size of tries in the 1970s, the Philippines developed a compre- the Nigerian migrants abroad compared to the Phil- hensive system for managing its labor emigration in ippines suggests that the vast majority of remittances the early 1980s.102 The country is now recognized as a are received by a select few in the higher income quin- major labor sending country with a relatively mature tiles in the country. From 1990-2019, the Philippines migration management system from which other has been able to keep youth unemployment levels at countries can learn. less than 10 percent compared to Nigeria’s worsening 102.  Smith, R. (2018) Managed Labor Migration in Afghanistan: Institutional Requirements and Policy Processes with and in Afghanistan. Washington DC, World Bank. Available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29273 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 81 Table CCS.1. Despite being half the size in population compared to Nigeria, there were five times as many international migrants from the Philippines compared to Nigeria Nigeria Philippines Indicator 1990 2019 1990 2019 Population 95,212,450 200,963,599 61,895,160 108,116,615 Working age population (15-24) 48,243,486 107,654,967 34,612,950 69,420,730 Number of international migrants 446,806 1,438,331 2,033,684 5,377,337 Migrants as a share of population 0.5% 0.7% 3.3% 5.0% Remittances (US$) 10,008,540 23,809,281,401 1,465,000,000 35,167,471,832 Remittances as a share of GDP 0.02% 5.3% 3.3% 9.3% Youth unemployment rate 9.2% 14.1% 8.8% 6.3% Source: World Bank-World Development Indicators and United Nations, International Migration Outlook 2019 youth unemployment rates amid the lack of a domestic overseas job opportunities. The Overseas Workers and overseas job creation strategy Welfare Administration (OWWA), similar to NiDCOM in Nigeria, protects the interest of overseas workers Comparing the labor migration sending system in and caters for their welfare, as well as the welfare of Nigeria and the Philippines across the essential features families left behind. Finally, the Philippines has a dedi- of the life cycle framework provides important insights cated agency—Technical Education and Skills Develop- on the gaps in Nigeria’s system. Table CCS.2 provides ment Agency (TESDA)—that carries out upskilling and a comparison on the state of development of the gov- skill certification for potential migrants prior to migra- ernance and services in the labor sending system of tion. The presence of these agencies makes the Filipino Nigeria and the Philippines. It shows that both Nigeria pre-departure model one of the best in terms of sup- and the Philippines have policy instruments at their porting the placement of migrant workers overseas. disposal to govern the migration process. The Migrant Workers and Overseas Filipinos Act of 1995 provides Finally, the Philippines regularly produces and dis- for the regulation of recruitment, the protection of Fil- seminates data related to migration to inform policy ipino migrants’ rights, and details processes for rein- making. In 2018, the Philippines Statistics Authority tegration upon return. The Act has been amended conducted its first National Migration Survey providing twice, in 2007 and in 2010, to strengthen the protec- information on the mobility of the Philippines’ popu- tion measures. lation to assist policy makers and program managers in designing and evaluating strategies for improv- The Philippines has signed multiple MoUs with receiv- ing services and assistance to Filipinos going abroad. ing countries which create access to overseas labor In Nigeria, no such exercise has been undertaken. markets and establish relationships with stakeholders The Labor Force Surveys do not include questions on in the receiving country. For instance, the MoU with potential or return migrants, leaving the policy makers the United Kingdom’s Department of Health grants Fil- in the dark on the stock and flows of Nigerians resid- ipino health workers access to the UK’s health sector. ing abroad, and the education and job market profile of aspiring and returning migrants. The Philippines Overseas Employment Administra- tion (POEA) facilitates and regulates overseas employ- Compared to the Philippines, the labor sending system ment by matching skilled unemployed persons with in Nigeria lacks clear mandates and an accountability 82 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Table CCS.2. Comparing Nigeria’s federal overseas employment system to the Philippines’ system provides measures of several gaps in Nigeria’s migration management systems Framework Key Features of the Labor Migration Sending System The Philippines Nigeria Governance tools National Migration Policy/Act PPP PP Bilateral/Multilateral Labor Agreements/MoUs PPP X Bilateral Social Security Arrangements PPP X Policy on Diaspora Matters PPP PP Programs, Actions, or Services Pre-decision Programs/Actions to Stop Irregular Migration PP P Facilitation of labor flows through Government-to- PPP X Government arrangements Pre-departure Travel documentation PPP P Public and Private Employment Intermediation Services PPP P Pre-departure orientation PP PP Skills training/Certification PPP X Health/Medical Screening PP X During Migration Legal assistance and representation through Labor PPP P Attachés Diaspora services and networks PPP PP Portability of benefits PP X Remittance services PPP P Post-return Reintegration assistance through health and social protec- PPP PP tion services Information and referral for wage and self-employment PP P Cross-Cutting Production and dissemination of data on migration for PPP X evidence-based policymaking Institutional coordination among stakeholders, including PP P with stakeholders in countries of destination Note: The table provides a stylized comparison of the sixteen key features of the labor migration sending system in The Philippines and Nigeria. Factors considered to perform the comparison includes duration for which the programs/services/policies are under implementation and to what extent they achieve their objectives, quality of services provided, administrative efficiency, grievance redressal etc. Three ticks represent that the feature is in the advance stages of implementation, two ticks represent the intermediate stage, and one tick represent the initial stage. The cross indicates that the feature is yet to commence or not yet available mechanism across various ministries and depart- from Filipino migrants who come from all strata ments. To sum up: of the skills spectrum. Nigerian migration, on the contrary, has tended to remain predominantly • The Philippines has been explicit in its labor-send- with a small subset of countries with close geo- ing system, encouraging labor migration as a devel- graphical or historic ties and has largely ben- opment strategy through BLAs, whereas Nigeria efitted the wealthier segment of the Nigerian does not have a single BLA to facilitate labor flows to population. destination countries. • The Philippines’ labor export strategy, through • The Philippines has benefitted from labor migra- POEA, explicitly regulated industries so that labor tion to a diverse set of destination countries and supply was destination-sector specific, for example, Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 83 the construction sector in the Gulf region, and • The Philippines labor export strategy includes a health care as well as domestic care sectors across sustainable approach for return and reintegra- the globe. Nigeria has no such labor market system tion through OWWA, whereas Nigeria usually to respond to demand. appeals to emergency approaches to evacuate migrants in distress. Areas for Policy Considerations capital investments for Nigerian youth. Table C.1 pro- vides a summary of 10 areas for consideration for Both economic and demographic contexts in recent policy makers. They are structured around four the- years have firmly highlighted the limited job opportu- matic areas, namely expanding legal pathways for regular nities in the domestic labor market in Nigeria. While migration, improving support for current migrants, strength- the majority of Nigerian youth entering the labor ening institutions governing labor migration, and harness- market will need to be supported through domestic ing better data for migration policymaking. Each job creation initiatives, it is important to acknowledge recommendation has a suggested timeframe attached the growing migratory pressures in recent years, and to it: either short-term (6-12 months) or medium-term to recognize that managed labor migration can help (1-2 years) based on the urgency of the issue and the unlock unrealized gains for the country’s economy. capacity of the leading and participating agencies to One consequence of inaction has already manifested carry out reforms. The table also assigns responsibility through an increase in irregular migration to Europe, to a lead and participating agencies overseeing each of where Nigerian migrants not only face higher eco- the 10 areas. nomic costs, but also face physical and psychological abuse along transit corridors in Niger and Libya. As a response to the European migration crisis, several Expanding Legal Pathways for Regular European donors have shown increased interest in the Migration migration policy making space in Nigeria. However, most of the resources and attention have been devoted 1. Prioritizing the increase of regular migration toward strengthening border controls or creating alongside reducing irregular migration would awareness around irregular migration. While those unlock unrealized gains in Nigeria’s economy. By initiatives are necessary, they are not sufficient to 2100, Europe’s working age population between address the challenge of irregular migration, as it over- the ages of 20 and 64 is projected to decline by 30 looks the economic and demographic context under percent, owing to low birth rates and increased lon- which irregular migration occurs. gevity.103 At the same time, the working age-pop- ulation in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to expand by Nigerian institutions are well-placed to promote another 2 billion, significantly adding to the exist- managed migration approaches that help create oppor- ing pressure on the local labor market. Emerg- tunities for prospective Nigerian jobseekers to find ing labor market trends in Nigeria highlight how employment internationally. They can also support the worsening joblessness combined with a lack of design of schemes that increase the returns to human regular channels for migration is leading to a surge 103.  Clemens, M., Dempster, H., and Gough, K. (2019). Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa. Available at https://www.cgdev.org/publication/promoting-new-kinds-legal-labour-migration-pathways-between-europe-and-africa 84 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Table C.1. Areas for policy consideration to improve the migration management framework in Nigeria Thematic Recommendation Timeframe/ Lead Participating Priority Priority Agency Agencies Expanding 1. Secure more and larger labor migra- Medium-term Federal Ministry Office of the Vice Legal Pathways tion partnerships with destination of Labor and President, Federal for Regular countries Employment Ministry of Foreign Migration 2. Re-enable the International Labor Short-term (FMLE) Affairs, Federal Migration Help Desk (ILMD) to source Ministry of Justice, and provide placement for overseas Federal Ministry of jobs Education, Federal Ministry of Health, 3. Formulate strict compliance and Short-term ECOWAS accountability mechanisms for effective functioning of Private Employment Agencies (PEAs) that source foreign employment opportunities 4. Set up a regional effort to allow Medium-term talented African professionals to find work within ECOWAS and further afield Improving sup- 5. Provide support to migrants in distress Medium-term Nigerians Office of the Vice port for current abroad through labor attachés and in Diaspora President, Federal and returning diaspora organizations and through Commission Ministry of Labor and migrants grievance redress mechanisms in Employment, Central Nigeria Bank of Nigeria 6. Facilitate labor market reintegration Short-term of returning migrants 7. Coordinate with national and interna- Short-term tional financial institutions to reduce the cost of sending remittances to Nigeria Strengthening 8. Mainstream labor migration in key Medium-term Office of the Vice FMLE, Nigerians in institutions national policy documents President Diaspora Commission governing labor 9. Reduce fragmentation and enhance Medium-term migration coordination among migration work- ing groups Harnessing 10. Collect and disseminate timely data Short-term National Bureau of FMLE, Office of better data on migration through the regular Statistics the Vice President, for migration Labor Force Surveys Nigerians in Diaspora policymaking Commission in irregular migration. Opening new channels for labor shortages in the region. One way to make safe, orderly, and regular channels for young Nige- use of this opportunity in a pragmatic way is rians to migrate regularly could lead to a win-win described in detail in the companion report titled scenario, displacing some of the existing irregular Expanding Legal Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From flows while allowing Europe to address growing Brain Drain to Brain Gain.104 This report highlights 104.  A Global Skill Partnership is a bilateral labor migration agreement between a country of origin and a country of destination. A country of destination would invest in training and education within the country of origin (in this case, Nigeria) to develop skills needed in both Nigeria and abroad. Those trained Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 85 the feasibility of using a Global Skill Partnership 3. Addressing gaps in supervising the activities of between Nigeria and Europe to invest in training PEAs would facilitate more effective overseas and education within Nigeria and to develop skills recruitment. For now, government policy sus- needed in both Nigeria and Europe. Structured pending recruitment for international jobs has and mutually beneficial migration partnerships not really halted overseas labor recruitment from with countries of destination, that also take Nige- Nigeria but has rather translated into a suspension ria’s national development ambitions into account, of the involvement of FMLE in the process. This not could benefit Nigeria by addressing growing unem- only creates room for unregulated labor recruit- ployment and skills mismatches and bringing more ment but also creates systems that could expose remittances into its economy. Similarly, the EU’s labor migrants to exploitative practices, includ- New Pact on Migration and Asylum, highlights spe- ing human trafficking and migrant smuggling. The cific goals to promote more legal migration path- reasons for the suspension of overseas recruit- ways with Sub-Saharan Africa. This will not only ment are linked to the need to review the status help Europe address growing labor shortages in and capacity of licensed PEAs, as well as to identify key sectors of the economy but will also allow it to active and functional ones.105 One way of address- build stronger cooperation with countries of origin ing this problem early could be by mandating PEAs and transit and benefit from enhanced cooper- to prove operational capacity for overseas recruit- ation for economic development in the process. ment prior to licensing. This approach could guard against the licensing of speculative PEAs which have 2. Enhancing the technical and financial capacity of little or no capacity to deliver and would curtail platforms such as NELEX and MRC would support the operation of disqualified PEAs within the labor the objective of expanding legal migration. Donor migration sending system. Other gaps that have and private sector led efforts are currently under- been identified are in areas such as monitoring of way to build the capacity of FMLE which hosts plat- recruitment activities, fixing of uniform recruit- forms such as MRC which provides pre-departure ment fees, and the handling of recruitment data. orientation and training to potential migrants, and Lack of compliance with established regulations NELEX that helps source domestic and international in the conduct of recruitment exercised by PEAs jobs to match domestic and international employ- needs to be addressed. Some sensitizations could ers with Nigerian jobseekers. These platforms suffer be done through associations such as the Human from lack of financial and technical resources to Capital Providers Association of Nigeria (HuCaPAN) carry out international labor intermediation and and the National Employers’ Consultative Associ- should be strengthened through government and ation, to ensure more transparency, accountabil- donor efforts. Similarly, prospective migrants could ity and compliance with regulations by the PEAs be better informed on steps involved to migrate in dealing with potential labor migrants. To align through regular means and the harms of irregular incentives, PEAs may be required to make an oper- migration. As an example, the OWWA in the Phil- ating deposit to the FMLE as a guarantee of either ippines provides a comprehensive web platform to adhering to established operational guidelines or disseminate this information. forfeiting the deposit as penalty for nonadherence. under the “away” track would also have access to language and cultural training, and then have their migration facilitated. Those on the “home” track would be plugged back into the Nigerian labor market. 105.  Information obtained during the World Bank consultations with FMLE. 86 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth Forfeited deposits could be deployed in assisting and growing numbers of diaspora organizations unsuccessful labor migrants to return home. This to provide support to its migrants. NiDCOM is cur- could incentivize the PEAs to follow due diligence rently in the process of formalizing a database of in ensuring that there is an actual demand for all diaspora organizations globally to link them to labor before sending prospective migrants abroad. new migrants as well as migrants in need. Another way of supporting Nigerians in distress abroad is by 4. Working with ECOWAS, Nigeria can help set up a establishing a dedicated grievance redress hotline regional labor migration agency that would allow that could route all of the issues through an agency talented African professionals to find work in like NiDCOM to relevant authorities within Nigeria. West Africa and further afield. Among the ben- Finally, Migrant Welfare Funds could be established efits that such a regional agency could bring are to support migrants in need by collecting a small enabling systematic and safe intra-regional labor deposit from all outgoing migrants and using the mobility through managed migration approaches; proceeds to help migrants when the need arises. facilitating labor intermediation and the certifica- Many South Asian countries such as Pakistan, Ban- tion of skills training and recognition at a regional gladesh, and Nepal have utilized such approaches. level; offering social protection services, such as insurance and portability of benefits to migrants; 6. Returning migrants, both regular and irregu- and, facilitating bilateral agreements with countries lar, need special support for re-integration into outside Africa. Nigeria’s difficult labor market. More than 15,000 Nigerians have been repatriated from various Improving Support for Current and Returning countries since 2016. More migrants could return Migrants following the onset of the COVID-19 induced eco- nomic crisis in destination countries, that has 5. Currently, mechanisms to support current eroded income-earning opportunities. Returning migrants in need are not well-established within migrants need to be better equipped with informa- Nigeria’s Federal Overseas Employment System. tion and referrals on services available in Nigeria When migrants find themselves in risky situations, (such as applying for a business loan, investing their best course of action is finding support through options, getting accredited for skills, searching labor attachés. A key weakness in Nigeria’s Federal for jobs, and seeking health and social protec- Overseas Employment System is the lack of labor tion services, among others). Proactive outreach representation abroad through labor attachés. The well before and immediately after return, inten- presence of labor attachés is not only crucial for the sive follow-up and handholding after the provi- protection of vulnerable migrants overseas but also sion of information and referral services, and a to explore employment opportunities within host formal link to the services offered for preventing countries, especially destination countries where irregular migration and promoting better migra- ageing populations are leading to job openings and tion could put returning migrants on a sustain- identify sectors within countries with skill shortages. able economic path in Nigeria. NiDCOM offers Besides providing support through labor attachés, a suitable platform for hosting these services. there are multiple other initiatives that could help Nigeria provide better support to migrants in the 7. Given the importance of international remit- diaspora. In the absence of labor attachés in formal tances to Nigeria’s economy, a concerted push by diplomatic missions, Nigeria could leverage large the government is required to bring down the Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 87 cost of sending remittances to Nigeria. The cost population is perplexing. The drafting of the new of sending money from abroad to Nigeria remains ERGP provides a good opportunity for labor migra- nearly three times higher than the SDG 17.3 man- tion to be mainstreamed as one of the key strategies dated target of 3 percent. Among the top 10 coun- to generate employment for Nigerian jobseekers. tries receiving the highest volume of remittances, Nigeria is only second to China as the costliest coun- 9. Despite the proliferation of several initiatives in tries to send remittances. The cost of sending remit- the recent past, international labor migration tances to Nigeria are higher from within Africa than has remained on the fringes of Nigeria’s main from outside of the continent. Since most intra-Af- policy-making agenda and lacks a champion rican migrants are less wealthy and less educated coordination body. The effective coordination of compared to their extra-continental counter- the labor migration process in Nigeria is anchored parts, these regressive remittance fees are hurting by several key stakeholders and working groups, those who could benefit the most from additional as described earlier. It is critical that their respon- dollars going to families instead of service provid- sibilities are clearly delineated, and an effective ers. Experts argue that one potential way of reduc- coordination mechanism established to manage ing these fees is “opening access of money transfer migration, regulate recruitment and remittances, operators (MTOs) to partnerships with national and establish the country’s obligations to its post offices, national banks, and telecommuni- migrants at all stages of migration—before, during, cations companies to remove entry barriers and and after. The Office of the Vice President (OoVP) increase competition in remittance market.”106 The in Nigeria plays a role in coordinating efforts with World Bank is currently supporting the CBN in con- various line ministries and across many sectors ducting a Remittances Market Assessment and pro- supporting the job creation agenda in the country viding assistance to create a roadmap for reforms to such as innovation, entrepreneurship, and skills reduce remittance costs. development. The OoVP is thus well suited to coor- dinate the currently fragmented nature of interna- Strengthening Institutions Governing Labor tional migration related initiatives in the country Migration due to its convening power, both among the line ministers as well as among donors who are increas- 8. Labor migration needs to be mainstreamed in key ingly more active in the migration space. national policy documents. While key sectoral doc- uments such as the National Labor Migration Policy Harnessing Better Data for Migration Policy (2014) and National Employment Policy (2017) offer making suitable suggestions to leverage managed migra- tion for providing overseas employment opportu- 10. Understanding the characteristics of interna- nities to Nigerian youth, the issue of migration is tional migration from Nigeria is challenging due absent or less salient in the Economic Recovery and to a lack of comprehensive data on stock and flow Growth Plan (ERGP 2017–2020). With Nigeria receiv- of Nigerian migrants, and their education and job ing more than US$25 billion in remittances in 2019, market profile before and after migration. Despite the absence of migration as a mainstream devel- efforts from national statistical agencies and inter- opment tool to provide jobs to the bulging youth national organizations, data to understand stock 106.  Ratha, D. (2021). Keep Remittances Flowing to Africa. Available at https://brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2021/03/15/ keep-remittances-flowing-to-africa/ 88 Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth and flows of Nigerians residing in other countries framework and presented 16 essential features against remains incomplete and fragmented. The education which the current international labor migration and job market profile of Nigerian migrants before practices in Nigeria were benchmarked. Even with migration is not collected in representative house- a plethora of agencies and stakeholders working on hold surveys in Nigeria, which makes it difficult to managing migration, significant gaps emerge when assess their skills and qualification levels prior to comparing the labor sending system in Nigeria to that migration. Disaggregated data availability on Nige- of a mature system such as the one in the Philippines. rian migrants in high-income OECD countries has Prominent gaps in the Nigerian labor sending system improved considerably in the last two decades but include: (i) absence of BLAs and MOUs to strategically further improvements could be made to enable place labor abroad; (ii) failure to systematically create comparison of migrants across a wider range of cri- and advance regulations on PEAs to place Nigerians teria in destination countries. Data could also be into overseas employment; (iii) failure to appoint made available at more frequent intervals. Despite labor attachés in Nigeria’s global diplomatic missions a large share of Nigerian migrants residing within to advance the welfare of Nigerian workers; (iv) lack countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the status of of understanding of destination-sector specific gaps intra-African Nigerian migrants in terms of nature where Nigerian nationals can help fill labor shortages; (temporary, circular, or long-term) or motive (busi- (v) lack of data to advance migration policy making; ness, education, or transit) of migration is hard to (vi) high costs of sending remittances to Nigeria; and assess. Regional bodies such as ECOWAS could play (vii) ad hoc and donor driven return and reintegra- a role in improving and strengthening migration tion approaches as emergency measures without pro- data management systems in its member countries. grams and policies to systematically benefit from the For bilateral and multilateral agencies, parallel skills of returning migrants. investments on improving migration data systems in Nigeria can aid ongoing efforts in raising aware- With Nigeria receiving more than US$25 billion in ness against irregular migration and in improving remittances in 2019, the absence of migration in the processes governing regular migration. mainstream policy documents and as a strategy to provide jobs to the bulging youth population is per- plexing. The drafting of the new ERGP provides a good Despite the benefits, Nigeria has scant structures in opportunity for labor migration to be mainstreamed place to reap benefits from international labor migra- as one of the key strategies to generate employment tion. This chapter introduced a migration life cycle for Nigerian jobseekers. Of Roads Less Traveled: Assessing the potential of economic migration to provide overseas jobs for Nigeria’s youth 89 References The Correspondent. 2019. A breakdown of Europe’s €1.5bn migration spending in Nigeria. Available at: https://thecor- Cho, Y. and Majoka, Z., 2020. Pakistan Jobs Diagnostic: Promoting respondent.com/150/a-breakdown-of-europes-eur1-5bn- Access to Quality Jobs for All. migration-spending-in-nigeria/19837235550-e86e62a5 Chilton, A. and Posner, E. 2018. Why Countries Sign Bilateral The New Humanitarian. 2020. “Nigerians returned from Europe Labor Agreements. Journal of Legal Studies 47(S1): 45-88. Face Stigma and Growing Hardship”. 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