48120 LATINAMERICA THE CARIBBEANREGIONVICEPRESIDENCY & FINANCIAL AND PRIVATESECTORDEVELOPMENTVICEPRESIDENCY BASEDON THE JOINTIMF-WORLDBANKFSAP UPDATE As part of the joint IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), a mission visited Barbados during March 26 to April 9,2008.' The principal objective of the mission was to update the FSAP conducted in 2002 focusing on financial system stability and specific institutional development issues.' The mission also provided an assessment of the observance of international standards and codes in financial regulation and supervision for the banking and securities sectors as well as of the development needs of the financial system and its potential contribution to economic developmelit. Preliminary results of the mission were discussed with the authorities during the subsequent IMF Article IV mission. 'The FSAP team was led by Messrs. Marco Espinosa-Vega (IMF, Mission Chief) and Craig Thorbum (World Bank, Deputy Mission Chief) and was composed of Joon Soon Lee, Bikki Randhawa (fiom headquarters), and Florencia Moizeszowicz (all World Bank); Giancarlo Gasha and Eugenio Cerutli (IMF), Diane Mendoza (external expert, formerly with the Resolution Trust Corporation and the Office of the Controller of the Currency, United States), Tanis MacLaren (external expert, formerly with the Ontario Securities Commission, Canada), and Linda Hytry (external expert, currently with the Texas Department of Insurance, United States). Gamal El-Masry (IMF) participated in the meetings and supported the FSAP team on macro issues. 'The FSAP team met with Senator Darcy Boyce, Minister of State; Dr. Marion Williams, Governor, Central Bank of Barbados (CBB); and officials at the Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Barbados, Securities Commission; Barbados Stock Exchange; the Office of the Supervisor of Insurance and Pensions, Ministry of Finance; Registrar of Cooperatives; National Insurance Scheme; and representatives of commercial banks, insurers, credit unions, external auditing firms, and other private sector institutions. I. OVERALLSTABILITY DEVELOPMENTASSESSMENT AND 1. The 2008 FSAP Update for Barbados took place in the context of considerable turmoil in global financial markets. Encouragingly, the financial system in Barbados has been little affected by this turmoil and the macroeconomic situation reniains robust with economic growth continuing to benefit from healthy tourism numbers and ongoing construction activity. As a result, the unemployment rate continues near historic lows. Nonetheless, economic prospects are tied to continuing tourism and, as such, to the slowing economic performance in Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, and the United States. 2. The dominant domestic banking sector appears sound, resilient, and profitable. Since the first FSAP, the financial system has benefited froni the strong econon~icexpansion, which has boosted credit demand while contributing to a steady improvement in banks' asset quality. Capital adequacy for locally incorporated banks remains above .theminimum required, and profits are at healthy levels. Stress tests reveal that the sector would be resilient to most market shocks, but capital levels may be at risk in the case of more extreme events. In particular, the system is vulnerable to credit quality shocks, and an extreme but plausible decline in tourism receipts, or in construction activity, would reduce banks' capital to below the regulatory minimum. 3. Progress has been made in addressing the recommendations of the 2002 FSAP assessment. The Bank Supervision Department (BSD) of the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) has been moving toward a risk-based supervisory framework, increased the number and training of its staff, and issued many guidelines on risk management. The Financial Institutions Act (FIA) was amended, inter alia, to require auditors to be approved by the CBB and to improve the procedures for winding up, restructuring and license revocation. The crisis management framework was enhanced with the introduction of a compulsory deposit insurance scheme in mid-2007. A full update of progress against the 2002 FSAP recommendations is included in the annex. 4. To assure continued financial stability and competitiveness, important regulatory and remaining supervisory weaknesses in the financial system also should be addressed. The prudential oversight of the banking sector could be strengthened by enhancing supervisory capabilities, accelerating the transition to risk-based banking supervision, tightening supervision of large exposures and exposures to related parties, improving the criteria for asset classification and provisioning, improving consolidated supervision for banking groups and regional financial conglomerates, and establishing more active home-host supervisory cooperation arrangements. 5. Limitations in the supervision of the insurance sector expose the sector to material risks. Profitability and capital adequacy are difficult to assess due to incomplete and inadequate data. Single negative events may significantly damage the reputation of ajurisdiction in an increasingly regional and global market. Although the mission noted the introduction of on-site inspections, the sector remains largely self-regulated owing to continuing shortages of qualified staff, inadequate regulation, and out-of-date financial reporting. Greater cooperation and exchange of information, particularly with the authorities in Trinidad and Tobago, are necessary to facilitate effective assessment of financial soundness and the protection of Barbadian policyholders. 6. Capital markets remain underdeveloped. Efforts to integrate the Barbados Stock Exchange with the Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica exchanges through the Caribbean Exchange Network (CXN), pending regulatory approval, are in line with the 2002 FSAP recommendations to adopt common listing, trading, and settlement rules across the exchanges in the region to promote development of capital markets. 7. The Registrar of the Cooperatives Department is slowly building capacity to adequately supervise credit unions. This agency has continued to carry outjoint inspections with the CBB of larger institutions as recommended by the 2002 FSAP. However, the number of inspections conducted and the joint inspections are not yet being conducted with the recommended frequency. Official figures for loan delinquency at Credit Unions understate the position and require close monitoring. 8. The offshore financial sector appears insulated from the onshore banking system, thus limiting the risk of contagion. Barbados will continue to face competition from offshore financial centers in the region. To differentiate itself, the country is seeking to continue strengthening its reputation for stability and a selective licensing process, and to develop a workforce with strong skills in financial services. However, the authorities continue to face the challenge of overseeing a large iiumber of very heterogeneous financial institutions with constrained resources. 11. THEMACROECONOMICSETTING AND RISKS 9. Barbados is a small country with a developing infrastructure, boasting one of the highest levels of GDP per capita in the region. Economic growth has been strong in tandem with increased tourism. Robust outp~~tgrowth has helped bring the unemployment rate to a historical low 2007. The country enjoys an investnlent grade rating and has one of the highest S&P foreign currency sovereign credit ratings in the region. Tourism, real estate, and financial services are the most dynamic sectors and represent almost half of GDP and almost 80 percent of foreign currency receipts. The Barbados dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar at BDS$2=US$l. The country maintains a number of exchange controls, and interest rates have typically followed U.S. rates closely. Inflation has declined from about 6.75 percent during 2005-06 to 4 percent in 2007. However, food and energy prices have had a material impact on inflation in 2008. 10. In the context of an uncertain global environment, GDP growth is expected to slow. Barbados is a popular destination for affluent U.K., U.S., and Canadian tourists, and tourism receipts are less sensitive to global economic trends than other destinations. However, both general economic conditions in Europe, the U.K., Canada and the U.S. along with relative exchange rates between these countries and the BDS$/US$ impact price competitiveness. 11. Barbados is also exposed to international oil prices through its impact on domestic prices and tourism. As Barbados is a net importer of oil, increases in the oil price translates to domestic prices and represents a negative terms-of-trade shock. Barbados is relatively distant from the main Caribbean cruise market, and higlier fuel costs could adversely affect numbers of cruise ship arrivals. Thus far, these two channels do not seem to have had a material effect, partially due to government subsidies of domestic gas prices, and the upscale characteristics of Barbados' tourism market. 12. The protracted global financial market turmoil could also impact the real estate market and the financial sector in the medium term. Real estate and construction have been important contributors to GDP. Acquisition of real estate by foreigners has boomed and is often externally financed. A sharp aiid protracted slowdown could increase uneniploynieiit and credit risk for the domestic banking sector. 111. THEFINANCIALSYSTEM,INSTITUTIONS, MARKETS AND Onshore Banks 13. The onshore banking sector has grown significantly since the 2002 PSAP and has seen increased consolidation and globalization. Bank assets have increased from US$3.1 billioii in 2002 to US$5 billion in 2007, equivalent to 142 percent of GDP and 80 percent of all deposit-taking institutions' assets. Onshore banks have increased regional links and continue to focus operations on consumer and real estate lending; have investment portfolios comprising mostly governmelit bonds (70 percent of investnieiits) held to maturity; and operations funded by local deposits (almost 90 percent of liabilities). Off-balance sheet operations are virtually nonexistent. The sector is dominated by the operations of Canadian banks and increasingly so with the acquisition of RBTT by RBC completed in mid-June 200S3 (see Figure 1). 14. Onshore banks' CAR exceeds regulatory requirements and nonperforming loans are declining. At end-September 2007 the sector's CAR stood at 10.8 per~ent.~However, the CAR has been declining mainly due to an increase in higher risk-weighted consumer and real estate lending. Supported by economic expansion, nonperforming loans have sharply declined from 8.2 percent in 2003 to 2.9 percent in 2007. 15. The system remains profitable and liquid, with moderate positions in foreign currency. Regulatory requirements on liquidity and foreign exchange exposures have induced banks to remain liquid and only modestly exposed to foreign currencies. Short-term assets as a ratio to short-term liabilities stand at close to 59 percent. Subsidiaries maintain a long net open position in foreign exchange of 35.3 percent of their capital, and loans and deposits ill foreign currency represent only 3 percent and 17percent of the respective totals. For branches, loans and deposits in foreign currency represent 17percent and 26 percent of the respective totals. 16. Consumer credit has expanded faster than other credit activities (Figure 2). Although private credit has moderated, and is now one of the slowest growing in tlie region from 2003-2006, growtli exceeded 15percent annually.' Consumer credit, iiicluding residential mortgages, has beell the most dynamic, contributing to the system's hefty profitability. According to published indicators, rapid credit growth has not, so far, adversely affected asset quality, largely due to the persistent expansionary environment. However, since consumer and Currently, the sector comprises six foreign-owned banks (four subsidiaries, two branches) with preeminent Canadian dominance (about 70 percent of system's assets). The Canadian parent banks of the Barbadian institutions remain sound, with a combined CAR of 11.5percent, and NPLs of only 0.5 percent of loans. The Minimum regulatory CAR of 8 percent applies. 'In 2007, Barbados' private non-financial credit growth was close to 8 percent, compared with close to 10 percent for Bahamas, 27 percent for Dominican Republic, 36 percent for Jamaica, and 17 percent for Trinidad and Tobago. mortgage lei~diiigrepresents as much as 68 percent of total loans, then a deep or sustained downturn would require close monitoring6 Figure 1. Banking Sector Trends since 2002 FSAP Tlze Financial System in Barbados expanded since previous FSAP 2001 BDS Figures are appro.;. not ~nscale Thepresence of banksfrom foreign financial groups has accentuated, with predominance of Canadian Banks Tlze banking sector experienced additional concentration CCB 4% lutual Bank 4% Source: CBB and FSAP 2002. 6Mortgages grew by about 20 percent in 2007. Most of them cany adjustable interest rates and up to a 95 percent loan-to-value ratio. According to industry participants, the recovery of collateral through ajudicial process takes between 6-18 months, relatively rapid compared with the rest of the Caribbean. Figure 2. Credit by Economic Sector, 2003 vs. 2007 (In percent of total loans) 'Dec-03 'Sep 07 Agricultural Commercial Construction Consumer Industrial Tourism Others Source: CBB and staff estimates. 17. The stress test analysis suggests that the main vulnerability faced by the domestic banking system is credit risk stemming from a downturn in economic activity. Specifically, although a credit risk baseline scenario based on WE0 projections shows that the capitalization of the onshore system would remain above the minimum capital requirement, one bank's CAR would fall below the minimum 8 percent." 18. An extreme but plausible decline in tourism receipts, or in construction activity, would reduce banks' capital adequacy requirement below the regulatory minimum. A 15percent decline in tourist arrivals, or a 15percent decline in the construction sector, would drive the CAR of the system from the current 10.2 percent to 6.7 percent and 5.9 percent respectively. If the system were hit simultaneously by several significant shocks, including a 15percent decline in both tourism and construction, a 500 bps increase in interest rates, 50 percent increase in oil prices, and a material recession in the U.S., the capitalization ratio of the system could decline to 3.6 percent in the absence of other initiatives, and all the banks would be below the regulatory minimum. Some of these shocks are extreme. The tourism shock would be about 30 percent larger than the large tourism drop experienced in 2001; the construction shock would be a sharp reversal of recent trends (about 9 percent growth on average per year), and much deeper than the previous cycles, where there was only a slowdown in construction activity (e.g., in 1996,2000 and 2003). However they are also plausible because GDP fell by 4 percent form the last quarter of 2001 through the first half of 2002, and in the early 1990s, GDP fell by more than 6 percent. 19. Domestic bank vulnerability to market risks is more limited. In particular: In light of shortcomings in asset classification and provisioning standards identified by the BCP assessors, adjustments were applied to the official data for stress testing purposes. These adjustments reduced tlie effective average CAR for the universe of banks analyzed from 10.8percent to 10.2 percent, with all the banks still complying with the regulatory minimum. The stress test covers tlie four subsidiaries of the onshore banking system. All the stress tests were conducted considering a benchmark CAR of 10.2 percent. The authorities have approached this bank requesting an increase in its CAR because it is currently only slightly higher than the minimum regulatory level. Interest Rate Risk. An increase in interest rates of 5 percentage points would reduce the system wide CAR to 8.4 percent, and one bank with a sizable maturity gap would fall below the regulatory minim~m.~ Exchange Rate Risk. Changes to the currency peg would have only moderate effects on banks' capitalization. In the event of a depreciation, given the long net position in foreign currency held by banks, the negative effect of the limited foreign currency induced credit risk would be offset by the direct positive balance sheet effect from long positions and would be positive for sector CARS.A material appreciation would slightly reduce system CAR from 10.2percent to 9.9 percent and no bank would fall below the regulatory threshold. Liquidity Risk. Liquidity risk was tested assuming a sudden, large deposit run on the subsidiaries of foreign banks (e.g., simulating a reputational shock to the parent company abroad), equivalent to a run on deposits of 30 percent in a 30-day period. No banks become illiquid under this scenario, although two banks would suffer strain-the ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities would decline from 57.3 percent to 31.6 percent for subsidiaries, and from 60.8 to 36.1 for branches. The same deposit run would potentially leave one foreign branch illiquid. Should the current levels of external funding cease altogether, no banks would become illiquid.'' Table 1. Stress Testing: Summary of Results ","K;" CAR Number of Number of Case Official Baseline Banks Banks Shock Data CAR