World Bank February 2022 Transport Asset Management Plan Guideline for Climate Resilience and Road Safety (Phase I) for the Municipality of Ulaanbaatar Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Acknowledgement Preparation of this report was funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and by the Global Road Safety Facility. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a global partnership that helps developing countries better understand and reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and climate. The Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) is a global multi-donor fund hosted by the World Bank. Its mission is to help governments develop road safety management capacity and scale up road safety delivery in low- and middle-income countries. For more information about these two trust funds, please visit https://www.gfdrr.org/en and https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/global-road-safety-facility. Yang Chen (Senior Transport Specialist) led the team which consisted of Khaliun Bat-Orig (Transport Analyst), Battuya Dash (Infrastructure Analyst, Consultant), Annika Berlin (Transport Junior Professional Officer), Xuanyi Sheng (Economics Consultant), Dejidmaa Damdindorj (GIS Consultant), and Ziming Liu (Transport Consultant). Binyam Reja, Practice Manager, provided overall supervision and quality control of the guidebook. The team thanks Azeb Afework for her administrative support. This is a product of collaboration between the UB city government, in particular the Road Development Department of the Capital City and the World Bank Team. The team is deeply thankful to the management and the technical staff at the Road Development Department for the cooperation. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 2 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety List of Abbreviations AI Artificial Intelligence CR Climate Resilience GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GRSF Global Road Safety Facility GWIA Geodesy and Water Infrastructure Agency LCC Life-Cycle Costing MUB Municipality of Ulaanbaatar PGA Performance Gap Analysis RDA Road Development Agency RDF Road Development Fund RS Road Safety SOGR State of Good Repairs TA Technical Assistance TAMP Transport Asset Management Plan UB Ulaanbaatar UBRRMC Ulaanbaatar Road Repair and Maintenance Company WB World Bank Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 3 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Table of Contents Contents Page Introduction 5 Section 1: Asset Management and Transport Asset Management Plan 7 Section 2: Transport Infrastructure Asset Inventory for Ulaanbaatar 10 Section 3: Institutional framework for Road Asset Management in Ulaanbaatar 13 Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring 15 Agency's objective and performance measures for strategic planning 16 Current Conditions of road assets 18 Valuation of road assets 24 Performance Targets 25 Performance Gap 27 Section 5: Planning for repair and maintenance 28 Life-cycle cost analysis 28 Cost Estimates 31 Section 6: Prioritization of road repair and maintenance 33 Prioritization Methodology 34 Prioritization Results 41 TAMP Development Steps 47 Annex 1: Repair cost estimates for Ulaanbaatar 50 Annex 2: Prioritization of road repair works, as of 2021 51 Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 4 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Introduction This Transport Asset Management Plan Guideline is developed under the umbrella of The outputs from the TA activity are based on the guiding principle of integrated and two technical assistance activities executed by the World Bank Group: “Municipal risk-based approach to the asset management that incorporate the consideration for Transport Asset Management for Climate Resilience in Ulaanbaatar City” funded by climate resilience and road safety. Specifically, the pillars of the TA activity support the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and “Safer Municipal achievement of the following objectives through their relevant activities: Road Infrastructure Initiative” funded by Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) (hereafter collectively referred to as “the Technical Assistance (TA) Activity”). Improvement of transport asset management and planning through: • Development of a Transport Asset Management Plan Guideline for MUB guided by The TA Activity aims to help the Municipality of Ulaanbaatar (MUB) improve its transparent and objective prioritization process for maintenance and repair municipal urban transport infrastructure asset management and planning for climate investment planning; resilience and road safety. It addresses issues of: • Development of a georeferenced Asset Inventory System for MUB’s road assets • Poor quality and vulnerability of urban transport infrastructure to climate-related with crowd-sourced data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technological solution; disasters due to the lack efficient planning and management of municipal transport infrastructure assets; and Integration of climate resilience in the repair and maintenance planning through: • The growing number of crashes and fatalities on the road due to lack of • Incorporation of flood data for the prioritization of maintenance and repair consideration of Safe Systems approach in the planning and managing of road investments for MUB; infrastructure in MUB. Improvement of road safety and incorporating road safety in planning and management To tackle the challenges faced by Ulaanbaatar in managing its road assets, the TA is built through: upon two main pillars of activities: • An introduction of a systematic road safety assessment methodology that identifies • Development of a georeferenced Asset Inventory System for MUB’s road assets; major road safety risks; and • Development of a Transport Asset Management Plan (TAMP) Guideline. • Incorporating road safety risks into the prioritization of maintenance and repair investments for MUB. These two pillars are intended to offer practical and low-cost solutions to build the foundations of a modern asset management framework to enable a more efficient budget spending on road repair and maintenance and better performing road assets in MUB. The recommendations and the outputs of the TA are developed in a framework approach in coherence to existing policies, standards, and ongoing information technology initiatives by the Municipality of Ulaanbaatar, and therefore can be adopted by the Road Development Agency of the Capital City (RDA) without the need for institutional changes. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 5 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Introduction What is in this TAMP Guideline? • Section 1 introduces Asset Management principles and Transport Asset Management Plan  What is Transport Asset Management and Planning? • Section 2 describes Road Asset Inventory System  The features and the limitations of the Road Asset Inventory System Version 1.0; • Section 3 describes the existing institutional framework for road asset management in Ulaanbaatar • Section 4 goes through the steps of Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring as the basis of the Transport Asset Management Plan  Set the agency’s objective and performance measures for strategic planning;  Identify the benchmark of the current situation using the current conditions of road assets;  Set performance targets to measure the progress towards achieving the objectives;  Assess the performance gap; • Section 5 describes the methodology to plan for repair and maintenance  Introduce life-cycle cost analysis which helps determine the most economically justifiable maintenance/repair strategy;  Analyses of historic construction, maintenance, repair and disposition costs for urban road transport assets; • Section 6 describes the methodology to plan for repair and maintenance  Introduces the prioritization methodology incorporating risks;  Demonstrates the priority assets.  Annex 1 illustrates repair cost estimation  Annex 2 illustrates the prioiritization of repair works as of 2021 Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 6 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 1: Asset Management & Transport Asset Management Plan What is Transport Asset Management? • Asset management is an integrated decision-making framework for road agencies to efficiently manage its road assets within the budget available for repair and maintenance guided by the overall development policy. • It focuses on economic, social, and engineering practices for investment prioritization Based on well-defined and budget allocation based on quality information and well-defined objectives. Policy driven goals and objectives • It is a strategic process to effectively plan for repair and maintenance during the entire life- cycle of road assets to optimize the performance of the assets while minimizing the life- time investment needed and encouraging continuous improvement in infrastructure Investment decisions management. Considers the Life-cycle Performance are based on clear entire life cycle • Asset management provides road agencies a framework to communicate its planning planning based performance targets and management approach to all stakeholders, including politicians, the media, and the of an asset when public. planning for Asset investments Management Core principles of asset management: • Asset management is policy-driven. The Road Agency will be able to plan and allocate resources based on a well-defined set of goals and objectives that relate to the higher-level development objectives of the city; Incorporates Quality of Based on quality • Asset management is performance based. The Road Agency will be able to translate its risks for effective Risk based information information policy objectives into performance targets which will help increase accountability and transparency of asset management; mitigation • Asset management relies on quality information. The Road Agency will be able to make budget and investment decisions based on engineering and economic practices using Principles of Asset Management accurate data; • Asset management integrates risk assessment. The Road Agency will be able to effectively mitigate risks such as road safety and climate related risks; • Asset management builds on life-cycle planning principle, which will help the Road Agency ensure the Value for Money (VfM) of its invetsments. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 7 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 1: Asset Management & Transport Asset Management Plan Why is Transport Asset Management important? 1. Establish a • Utilization of an asset management framework helps cities provide a consistent complete inventory of level of transport infrastructure service, based on its policy objectives and all road elements financial means. 2. Provide a clear picture 9. Implement the of current • Risk-based asset management is a powerful decision-making framework that makes it TAMP condition/performance of the road network possible to view the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s infrastructure sustainability, both in terms of performance and value. • One of the key objectives of implementing a transport asset management is to provide data-based justification for budget, and to help direct limited funds towards those areas where the return on investment will be greatest. 8. Define a strategy 3. Estimate the value (TAMP) of the asset • A key benefit of asset management is the long-term cost savings over the life of the asset, associated with preventative maintenance which leads to the avoidance of infrastructure failure. The long-term benefits of exercising Transport Asset Management: • Reduced life-cycle costs; 7. Set-up funding scenarios for the • Consistent levels of service throughout the asset’s life; regular and timely 4. Predict future • Ability to monitor and track performance; maintenance and demand upgrade of the road • Improved transparency in decision-making; asset • Ability to predict consequences of funding decisions and future funding needs; • Demonstrable asset custodianship; and 6. Prioritize objectives 5. Estimate • Decreased financial, operational, and legal risks. related to the desired maintenance needs quality and and costs performance Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 8 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 1: Asset Management & Transport Asset Management Plan Ulaanbaatar TAMP-Phase I This is the first iteration of a TAMP Guideline for Ulaanbaatar. This TAMP Guideline The TAMP Guideline addresses 9 classes of transport assets in Ulaanbaatar, which Version 1 guides MUB to move away from its conventional reactive decision-making are chosen based on their importance to road safety, climate resilience, and the capacity approach and adopt a systematic, evidence- and risk-based approach in maintaining its of the Asset Inventory System 1.0 that is developed jointly by the World Bank and the road assets. The reactive way of doing business, which postpones repair activities until RDA as part of this TA. major deterioration occurs, is no longer sustainable. It is too expensive, and it erodes the value of important and costly road assets. As the costs of operating and repairing roads This below diagram demonstrates the flow of asset management planning process, continue to increase, it has become more difficult for MUB to meet the demands of an guided through this TAMP Guideline: aging and expanding infrastructure while dealing with public expectations to provide the same level of service. Identify strategic Benchmark current Develop asset objective and This TAMP Guideline can therefore serve as a medium- and long-term tactical guide for condition of road inventory performance MUB to plan for repair and maintenance of its transport assets to provide good quality assets measures road network to UB’s citizens while optimizing the use of its scarce financial resources for maintenance and repairs. The TAMP incorporates two key risks that strain the performance and safety of UB’s road network: climate risks (particularly urban flooding) and road safety risks. Identification of Identify Introduction of life- Integration of these risks in the planning and managing of assets will improve the investment needs performance gaps cycle cost concept (Cost Estimate) resilience of the city’s road network and reduce the material and financial consequences of high-risk natural hazards. The cornerstone of this iteration of the TAMP Guideline will be a prioritization methodology. Key inputs for the prioritization methodology are: • criticality score of a given road section, Development of the Prioritization of Transport Asset prioritization • climate risks, methodology road assets Management Plan • road safety risks, and • the road condition data. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 9 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 2: Transport Infrastructure Asset Inventory for Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar Asset Inventory System Features of Ulaanbaatar Asset Inventory System: Creating and keeping a systematic inventory of assets that include asset information • Based on crowd-sourced data collected on an open-source platform; such as asset conditions, locations of assets, and records of construction, repair and maintenance is vital to effectively manage transport assets. These data could enable RDA • Geo-referenced asset inventory of 9 types of transport assets: to make evidence-based decisions through performance monitoring, setting realistic • Roads objectives and performance targets, identify performance gaps, conducting life-cycle • Sidewalks modelling, projecting funding needs and prioritizing road repair and maintenance works. • Road Marking • Curbs Through this TA activity, RDA and the World Bank worked together to establish UB’s • Guardrails first ever digital transport asset inventory system (Inventory System Version 1.0). This • Traffic Signs asset inventory system has been designed to maximize the use of technology and citizen • Speed Bumps engagement while minimizing the human and financial resources spent by RDA to • Manholes monitor and inspect UB’s road assets. The inventory system builds on latest • Catch basins technological advancements - crowdsourcing of primary data through an crowd- sourcing platform and use of artificial intelligence to process data. These key features • Automatic condition classification functionality for each asset (or asset segments); are designed to ensure the practicality and sustainability of the inventory system from both financial and ownership points of views, in a way that MUB will be able to • Visualization of assets in the municipal road network with color-coded condition continue and maintain the system with little or no support and dependence from levels (red-orange-yellow-blue-green); external parties, such as the World Bank, the Mapillary platform (where the crowd- • Base maps, criticality analysis, flood mapping, and road safety mapping for evidence- sourcing of primary data is performed) and the software developer. based decision making; and • Prioritization map based on the corresponding scores of asset condition, criticality, and risks. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 10 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 2: Transport Infrastructure Asset Inventory for Ulaanbaatar Setting up the initial Asset Inventory System 1.0 comprised of five steps: 3. Object verification: WB and RDA jointly verified over 177’000 raw images using the verification tool that the project team had Mapillary develop. This process identified 1. Mapping: The WB team and the RDA jointly carried out a street-view imagery and resolved the inaccurately detected objects in the images, reducing the inaccuracy mapping of UB’s paved roads using Mapillary to set up the asset inventory from of the data. August to November 2018. The mapping efforts consisted of two phases: 1) a public campaign, facilitated by an open competition, as a result of which 470- 4. Map feature extraction: The WB team and RDA worked together to resolve errors kilometer paved roads in the city were mapped; and 2) a team of WB-hired drivers identified in the extracted map features by manually comparing the features with a mapping all remaining paved roads. The mapping efforts generated over 342'280 high-resolution satellite map of the city as well as the existing traffic signs layer. This geo-tagged images of total 1096-kilometer paved roads in the city, which process helped reduce inaccuracy due to positioning and duplication errors during constituted the initial raw data for the asset inventory data collection. 2. Object detection: The WB team collaborated with Mapillary for automatic object 5. Asset condition classification: An technology and software development firm was detection and extraction of map features from the collected geo-tagged images. hired to carry out the asset condition classification, the key attribute of the map Mapillary’s existing algorithms, i.e. detectors, were used to detect the objects in the features/ transport assets. Using artificial intelligence (AI), particularly deep learning images with bounding boxes. The WB team worked closely with the Mapillary technology, the consultant firm designed and developed a model to automatically team to review and ensure the accuracy of the automatic object detection from the classify the relative condition of the transport infrastructure asset features from the images. images. The WB team and RDA technical staff compared over 100,000 images in pairs in order to generate the training dataset to develop the model using a data labeling interface developed by the software firm. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 11 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 2: Transport Infrastructure Asset Inventory for Ulaanbaatar Recommended further developments for the asset inventory system during the 2nd phase of Inventory System development: • More frequent update: Currently, the inventory is set up in such a way that asset • Integration of construction and past repair and maintenance data: For effective and modern detection and condition information will be updated twice a year. For this system, transport asset management, historic data on construction and all past repair and where primary data is collected on open platform with crowdsourcing and the maintenance records for each type of asset is vital. These data will not only help detection and condition classification of assets are done automatically using artificial improve the accountability of the construction firms in future procurement intelligence, there is potential for the inventory to be updated more frequently, if processes by RDA, more importantly, it will help inform forecasting of timeline and substantial number of new images are uploaded to Mapillary on a frequent basis. more accurate budget for appropriate level of repair and maintenance. The crucial The advantage is to enable prioritization of emergency/ad-hoc/routine maintenance historic data such as year and cost of construction, materials used, and other details and repair needs on time without causing traffic disruptions in the city or including information on the asset’s design, construction, repair and reconstruction compromising road safety. Voluntary public participation will not be sufficient to will enable RDA to more accurately calculate the costs and benefits of repair keep up with mapping of the entire city at a frequent interval. Therefore, the WB strategies as part of life-cycle costing, and to evaluate alternative treatment plans team recommends the MUB to collaborate with khoroo level administration to “map” more effectively. Often, a record of the past 5 years is used for such calculations. the streets within their jurisdictions on a regular interval without too much added workload to the khoroo staff as they (e.g. social workers) travel the roads frequently • Integration of detailed inspection results: RDA carries out inspection of the roads once a to carry out their daily work duties, if the accessories (car mount to install the phone year as per the national technical normative and standards. The results of the in the car, or cell phone carrier on the neck to use while walking) are provided. inspection regarding the road International Roughness Index (IRI), Rutting, Faulting and Cracking into the inventory system, and the collection of adequate data on these • Improvement of data accuracy: To improve the efficiency of data processing and ensure over several years will provide an excellent basis for more accurate Life-Cycle its sustainability, further improvementa of the algorithms is recommended. These Costing framework for UB, which will lead to more effective preventative software upgrades are needed to better resolve duplications during map feature management of assets and maximize the life of each assets. processing. • Interfaces with other platforms: During the next phase of inventory development, an interface to better link the street level image crowd-sourcing platform Mapillary with the Inventory system; and appropriate interfaces to integrate the Inventory system with MUB’s other existing databases and platforms, such as the 11-11 system, the Unified Database, shall be developed. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 12 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 3: Institutional Framework for Road Asset Management in Ulaanbaatar Ulaanbaatar Road Asset Management Funding and Financing The Institutional Structure for Road Asset Management in Ulaanbaatar The National Road Law of 2017 specifies that funding and financing sources for road By law, the Mayor of Ulaanbaatar, the road asset holder, designates the road asset repair and maintenance can include the state, municipal and local budgets, foreign loans manager responsible for ensuring robust city road network. The Road Development and grants, domestic and foreign direct investment. The city of Ulaanbaatar set up the Department (RDA) and City General’s Manager’s Office function as the asset managers. Road Development Fund (RDF) in accordance with the law to finance the road repair Both have the mandate to contract out and oversee repair and maintenance works to the and maintenance as part of its capital budget. Both the capital budget and the RDF are municipal and private service providers including Ulaanbaatar Road Repair and main sources of financing for road repair and maintenance in Ulaanbaatar. Maintenance Company (UBRRMC) and Geodesy and Water Infrastructure Agency (GWIA). As shown on the next page, the institutional arrangements for road repair and maintenance in Ulaanbaatar are fragmented with overlapping responsibilities among the key stakeholders. Institutional Arrangements for Road Repair and Maintenance in Ulaanbaatar UB Mayor City General RDA Manager’s Office City Private Private GWIA UBRRMC UBRRMC GWIA Landscaping Contractors Contractors Agency Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 13 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 3: Institutional Framework for Road Repair and Maintenance in Ulaanbaatar Roles and Responsibilities of Key Stakeholders by Asset type Key Municipal Private Service Stakeholders City General City Council Mayor’s Office RDA GWIA Landscaping UBRRMC Providers/ Manager’s Office Asset type Agency contractors* Roadway Oversees repair & Carries out maintenance maintenance Carries out repair Carries out repair Traffic signs n/a and maintenance & maintenance n/a Road Markings Reviews and Oversees repair & Prepare annual maintenance approves the Catch basins repair and annual repair and Oversees repair & Carries out repair maintenance n/a n/a n/a Manholes maintenance maintenance & maintenance budget as a part budget as a part of the capital Speedbumps of the capital n/a investment investment Street Lighting budget for RDF n/a budget for RDF Carries out repair Carries out repair Curbs Oversees repair & n/a & maintenance & maintenance Oversees repair & maintenance Carries out Guardrails maintenance maintenance Sidewalk * According to the 2016 Disaster Preparedness Plan of RDA, there are 28 private contractors with over 1000 staff. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 14 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Objective of this Section:  Set the agency’s Objective and Performance Measures for strategic planning; Performance targets will then be established, hypothetically based on the performance  Identify the Benchmark of the current situation using the current conditions of measures. While this version of the TAMP Guideline doesn’t include the budgeting road assets; exercise, the document illustrates guideline on establishing performance indicators that should be used to track its progress in achieving the performance targets. Using pre-  Set Performance Targets to measure the progress towards achieving the objectives; defined performance indicators and targets are key components of effective  Assess the Performance Gap to identify the activities needed to achieve the Targets transportation asset management, and the process improves transparency and enables shift from the conventional output-based work program to performance-based  Valuation of Transport Assets management of road assets. Developing performance scenarios at various funding levels allows setting of TAMP links the objectives and goals of the road organization to the necessary actions to manage the roads in the city and sets out the operational plan for implementing these performance targets to meet municipal transportation requirements and RDA’s goals. actions. This objective is meant to incorporate national, municipal and agency level Establishing targets, articulating strategies, linking agency processes to asset management objectives for strategic planning of the road network performance. and other performance strategies are all integral parts of the TAMP. This exercise should be redone to identify a practical performance target based on detailed and Based on objectives, appropriate performance measures are used to track the performance of road assets towards achieving these objectives. The performance accurate available budget funding available for road repair and maintenance for RDA measures should be specific to the objectives, measurable in terms of financial and while considering the alternative repair and maintenance options using life-cycle costing technical capacity of the city, attainable within the available budget, replicable with methodology. This is planned to be carried out during the second phase of TAMP-CR. scientific methodology, and time-bound with clear target dates. Lastly, the gap between the target level of road pavement performance and the current The absolute first step to effective asset management is for the road agency to know performance levels were compared to derive the amount of funding required by RDA to what assets there are, what the performance of these conditions are, the values of its achieve the target level. assets. This TAMP Guideline and example is developed based on the information available from the Inventory System 1.0, where the condition levels of 8 classes of road assets in Ulaanbaatar are used as the benchmark of current performance levels of UB’s roads. The next iteration of the TAMP Guideline 2.0 will delve into the valuation of the the assets, when more information is available from historic data. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 15 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Set the agency’s Objective and Performance Measures for strategic planning A variety of performance measures are used to monitor the systematically measure the progress in the implementation of asset management and asset provision. Performance MUB's long term objective for its urban transport sector is to establish resilient and measures enable auditing and monitoring of the delivery of the asset management; they efficient urban transport system for livable city without congestion and stress, as are used to demonstrate how funding is being used effectively to meet stakeholder stipulated in the Master Plan of 2030, the Mayor's Action Plan, and the Socio-Economic needs; provide the link between objectives, asset management, and maintenance Development Directions of 2020. operations; facilitate effective communication with stakeholders (i.e. central government) by demonistrating performance against their requirements; and demonstrate any shortfalls in funding. Define Objectives It is essential that the objectives are tied explicitly to quantifiable performance measures. Performance measures should be meaningful at both an aggregate system level as well as at an individual project level. SMART approach should be used in selecting Implement Set Performance performance measures: Programs Measures • Specific - the measure is specific, clear and unambiguous, explaining clearly what is expected; • Measurable - there is a simple method for measuring it; • Attainable - the measure is realistic and there is a clear action plan of how it can be achieved; • Relevant - it is important in achieving the asset management objective; and • Time-bound it is measured in a timeframe. Prioritize Repair Set Performance and Maintenance Targets Appropriate performance measures therefore vary based on the asset type being measured and the overall objective of the agency. For example, in USA, measures such as percent with high or moderate drivability life and various pavement condition Identify measures are used for pavement performance measures while percent useful life measure Performance Gaps is used for fleet or ITS equipment. In China, condition of pavement is used as performance measure for pavements and sidewalks. In Belgium, sidewalk performance is measured through footway width, longitudinal unevenness, crossfall, and skid resistance measures. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 16 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Set the agency’s Objective and Performance Measures for strategic planning (continued) The Performance Measures are meant to incorporate national, municipal and agency In this TAMP Guideline and Exercise, condition of road assets will be used as the level objectives for strategic planning of the road network performance. In the case of performance measure to benchmark current performance and identify the gaps. The Ulaanbaatar, the performance measures shall support the overall goal of the city in condition of the road asset will be measured in the percentage of road assets in good or terms of providing safe, efficient, resilient, and quality road infrastructure. better than good condition in MUB, also known as “State of Good Repairs” (SOGR). Below are a few examples of performance measures used in different cities that would Setting SOGR is technically contingent on the current condition levels of the municipal be relevant to Ulaanbaatar’s urban transport objectives: road network and financially contingent on available budget for repair and maintenance of roads in Ulaanbaatar. Currently, in Mongolia, there is no legal and institutional Objective: Resilient mandate to set SOGR, and RDA doesn’t have set SOGR targets. Performance Measures: • Percent of the road network vulnerable to urban flooding In many other cities, the targets are set for a 5-10-year time horizon. For the case of UB, • Condition: State of Good Repair (SOGR) of road assets as a rapidly developing city with many exogenous and endogenous factors that affect the budget situation, the TAMP Guideline recommends MUB to set 10-year road asset Objective: Efficient performance targets in line with the Master Plan of 2030. Performance Measure: • Travel time International Experience setting SOGR: • Capacity: Levels of service In the US, the SOGR Pavement Targets range from 50% to 95%, with the majority of states Objective: Livable city targeting minimum of 80% - 90% of its road network to be in good condition or better, where • RiaFatalities and serious injuries from road traffic crashes on selected pavement condition is divided into three categories: good, fair and poor. As for sidewalks, transport corridors Michigan state, for example, targets 70% SOGR for sidewalks. • Road user satisfaction level In China, the conditions are divided into four categories: excellent, good, qualified and unqualified. The national SOGR pavement target is 98.5% excellent condition rating, while select provincial governments set SOGR targets that range between 85% and 100% of its road network to be in excellent condition. SOGR target for sidewalks range from 95% to 100% minimum in good condition, 93% to 95% for road lightings and 95% for catch basins across cities in China. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 17 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Assess Conditions of assets to benchmark the current situation The first step of an effective performance monitoring is to benchmark the current performance of the road network. This baseline information of the current condition will help identify the deficiencies in its current road network system and help track the the progress towards achieving its urban transport objectuives as the city continues to invest in the maintenance and repair of road assets. Poor condition pavement sample photo from Ulaanbaatar Good condition pavement sample photo from Ulaanbaatar Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 18 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring The snapshot of MUB’s current assets and their conditions, as captured by the first iteration of the Asset Inventory System as of 2018 is presented below: Condition Very Condition Very Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Asset Poor Asset Poor Roadway (km) 207.79 99.83 140.78 96.57 2.71 547.68 Roadway (km) 37.94% 18.23% 25.71% 17.63% 0.49% 100.00% Traffic signs 79 660 2701 772 103 4315 Traffic signs 1.83% 15.30% 62.60% 17.89% 2.39% 100.00% Road markings 151 959 820 308 90 2328 Road markings 6.49% 41.19% 35.22% 13.23% 3.87% 100.00% Catch basins 16 53 19 6 4 98 Catch basins 16.33% 54.08% 19.39% 6.12% 4.08% 100.00% Manholes 18 166 75 27 0 286 Manholes 6.29% 58.04% 26.22% 9.44% 0.00% 100.00% Road curbs 4.51 113.54 306.22 51.68 2.58 478.52 Road curbs (km) 0.94% 23.73% 63.99% 10.80% 0.54% 100.00% (km) Sidewalks 7.39 42.61 59.94 39.01 2.87 148.82 Sidewalks (km) 4.97% 28.63% 40.28% 24.20% 1.93% 100.00% (km) Guardrails Guardrails 0.41 2.36 8.24 3.01 0.05 14.07 2.88% 16.77% 58.61% 21.38% 0.36% 100.00% (km) (km) Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 19 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Conditions of UB’s roadway (pavement) Conditions of UB’s sidewalks Below is the snapshot of the pavement condition classification. Colors (red-orange- Same methodology is used to derive the relative conditions of the sidewalks to green) correspond to the relative conditions (poor-fair-good). The condition score is roadways. assessed at every 2-meter interval and calculated as the mean of the entire roadway data collected and evaluated. Condition Very Condition Very Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Asset Poor Asset Poor Roadway (km) 37.94% 18.23% 25.71% 17.63% 0.49% 100.00% Sidewalk (km) 4.97% 28.63% 40.28% 24.20% 1.93% 100.00% Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 20 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Conditions of UB’s road marking Conditions of UB’s road signs Condition Very Condition Very Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Asset Poor Asset Poor Road Marking 6.49% 41.19% 35.22% 13.23% 3.87% 100.00% Traffic Signs 1.83% 15.30% 62.60% 17.89% 2.39% 100.00% Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 21 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Conditions of UB’s manholes Conditions of UB’s catch basins Condition Very Condition Very Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Asset Poor Asset Poor Manholes 6.29% 58.04% 26.22% 9.44% 0.00% 100.00% Catch Basin 16.33% 54.08% 19.39% 6.21% 4.08% 100.00% Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 22 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Conditions of UB’s guardrails Conditions of UB’s road curbs Condition Very Condition Very Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Poor Fair Good Excellent Total Asset Poor Asset Poor Guardrails (km) 2.88% 16.77% 58.61% 21.38% 0.36% 100.00% Roadcurb (km) 0.94% 23.73% 63.99% 10.80% 0.54% 100.00% Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 23 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Valuation of transport assets Managing transport assets efficiently requires the road agency to estimate value of its • Current replacement cost: the engineering cost estimate to replace the facility under assets, as this value is a significant factor in determining priorities for future investment. current market conditions with one of equivalent capacity, taking into account cost The valuation process, with its emphasis on economics or finance, represents a shift in efficiencies arising from improvements in technology. thinking from the traditional engineering approach to transport program development. Asset values can be expressed in a variety of ways. For example: The two methods of cost estimates fall within the broader valuation method known as “capital” or “wealth value” assessment that uses a cost-based approach to assessing the • Each asset has an intrinsic economic value to the transport network as a whole, that value of an asset. is, the value of the efficient movement of people and goods. As with the approaches to the valuation of assets, there are a number of established • Each asset has a capital value either calculated from the cost of repairing the asset to depreciation methods in use among Member countries. The two most common methods an “as built” condition or of replacing the asset in kind. are: Valuation plays an important role in asset management because one of the main • Straight-line depreciation: the value of an asset depreciates at a constant rate over purposes of valuation is to enable reporting in monetary terms to reflect the physical time. conditions of the road network, and to assist the road agency in evaluating the effects of different financing strategies over the life of the asset. • Condition-based depreciation: where the value of an asset depreciates according to its condition. There are a number of approaches prescribed to value infrastructure assets, and no single approach is universally accepted by the international community. Commonly used Many road administrations use a combination of these two methods, the choice of approaches to value transportation infrastructure assets include: depreciation method generally depending on the type of asset. For example, it may be appropriate to apply straightline depreciation to assets that are not subject to vehicle • Economic value: derived from the value of the asset to the whole community in terms loading, such as traffic signal systems and highway lighting, whereas condition-based of the value of the efficient movement of people and goods. depreciation may be more appropriate for assets such as pavements and bridges. • Historical cost: the base acquisition accounting cost, or the initial cost to build the facility in the year it was constructed (usually taken from the original construction cost records). Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 24 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Set Performance Targets to measure the progress towards achieving the objectives Performance targets are the expected/anticipated performance of assets that are realistically achievable based on the funding availability and investment choices made by SOGR (%) 2030 % of assets in good or better MUB over a shorter, 2-4-year horizon of the TAMP. As such, available funding levels Assets (% of assets in good condition and target performance levels are linked as part of the TAMP process. condition) As of 2020 Roadway 90% 18% In other cities, these performance targets are often constrained on the bottom by the nationally established minimum condition levels of road assets, and by available Sidewalks 90% 26% funding on the top. However, given the lack of national and municipal legal mandate requiring to establish performance targets in Ulaanbaatar. Road Marking 90% 17% Setting performance targets and using relevant performance measures to monitor and Curbs 90% 11% track the progress is a way of integrating engineering and economic/fiscal Guardrails 90% 22% considerations in the management of transport assets. It shall be noted that monitoring performance is not an end in itself. The information gathered from the monitoring Traffic Signs 90% 20% process should be used to help policy makers, officials, and managers make better allocation decisions to improve the road network performance. Delivery of transport Speed Bumps 90% n/a infrastructure and services is the principal focus of the transport sector and monitoring is ultimately about improving this delivery. Road Lightings 90% n/a For Ulaanbaatar, for the purposes of illustrating the methodologies presented in this Manholes 90% 10% TAMP Guideline, we will estimate and prioritize the investment needed to bring up 90% of Ulaanbaatar's road assets in Good or better than good condition. This target Catch basins 90% 10% may be modified by RDA and MUB upon adoption of the TAMP. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 25 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring  Set Performance Targets to measure the progress towards achieving the objectives Performance Targets until 2030 (continued) 100.00% Assuming the MUB sets a 90% SOGR long-term objective to reach by 2030, following 90.00% would be the medium-term performance targets to incrementally reach the 2030 objective. This can also be used to track the progress towards achieving the objectives. 80.00% 2-year target (2022) @SOGR 4-year targets (2024) @SOGR 70.00% Catch Basin 20% 40% 60.00% Guardrail 40% 55% Manholes 20% 40% 50.00% Curb 20% 40% Road Marking 40% 55% 40.00% Road Sign 40% 55% Roadway 40% 52% 30.00% Sidewalk 40% 52% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Catch Basin Guardrail Manholes Roadcurb Road Road Sign Roadway Sidewalk Marking 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 26 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 4: Setting Objectives and Implementing Performance Monitoring Assess the Performance Gap to identify the activities needed to achieve the Targets Performance Gap Analysis (PGA) is one of the key pillars of TAMP. PGA derives from In Ulaanbaatar, the following graph shows the extent of Performance gap between the the Performance Targets set forth by the MUB for UB’s road transport performance, and the current condition levels and the SOGR. Sidewalks are performing better than any other current performance of the transport network. PGA enables the RDA to define the gaps road asset classes, with 26% of the sidewalk at SOGR, while only 10% of the catch that exist between the current performance of its road assets and the desired level of basins and manholes are at SOGR as of 2018 (data collection year). performance (SOGR). The results of the PGA inform planning of the road repair and maintenance activities for UB. Such objective-oriented and evidence-based planning and Performance Gap decision-making will lead to more effective investment in the road sector, yielding 90% improved performance of the transportation system. Catch basins 10% Manholes 90% 10% Results of the inventory activity undertaken within this project showed that 18% of Traffic Signs 20% 90% Ulaanbaatar’s total roadways are in Good or better than good condition, while 10% to Guardrails 22% 90% 26% of the other seven classes of assets were in that condition level. This would be the Curbs 90% 11% current level of SOGR in Ulaanbaatar. Despite the vast difference in the condition Road Marking 90% 17% assessment methodology, the share of the roadways categorized as good or better than 90% Sidewalks 26% good condition class is substantially low in comparison to the examples we discussed in 90% Roadway 18% the previous section from USA and China. Large portion of the city’s road network in less than good condition demonstrate that the value of the city’s road assets is quickly 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% depreciating, the necessary funding amount to bring the roads up to “good” condition are SOGR (%) 2030 Current Condition increasing, and the useful life of Ulaanbaatar’s road assets are getting shorter. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 27 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 5: Planning for Maintenance and Repair - Life Cycle Cost Analysis  Life-Cycle Planning and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Using a preventative, life-cycle planning approach is beneficial to public spending, because the costs of preserving a good quality network are optimized in the long run. Asset management concepts apply over the full life of an asset, spanning from installation or construction of an asset to its replacement or retirement. The diagram below demonstrates that, by committing regular funding and taking regular action, the total cost is significantly less than waiting for major decline in standards. The basic principle underlying life-cycle planning and analysis is fundamental to asset management: Timely investments in an asset results in improved condition over a longer time period and lower long-term cost. Application of preventive maintenance early in an asset's life when it is still in relatively good condition can delay the need for more costly rehabilitation, replacement, or reconstruction and result in an overall lower life cycle cost. The objectives of lifecycle planning can be summarized as follows: • Identify long-term investment for road infrastructure assets and develop an appropriate maintenance strategy • Predict future performance of road infrastructure assets for different levels of investment and different maintenance strategies • Determine the level of investment required to achieve the required performance • Determine the performance that will be achieved for the available funding and/or future investment • Support decision making, make a case for investing in maintenance activities, and demonstrate the impact of different funding scenarios • Minimize costs over the lifecycle while maintaining the required performance. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 28 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 5: Planning for Maintenance and Repair - Life Cycle Cost Analysis The lifecycle of an asset covers following stages: Creation of a new asset: This may include a single asset, such as a new bridge, new lamp column, or signpost, or a series of new assets in the construction of a new road. Routine maintenance: This is the reactive and cyclic activity to maintain the asset over time. Examples include pothole repairs, tensioning of safety fencing, and cleaning of drainage and signs. Renewal or replacement: This is the process required to bring the asset back to the required performance after it has deteriorated. This generally requires capital expenditure, unless it is a smaller item in the road inventory, in which case it could be replaced as part of routine maintenance. Decommissioning: Most road infrastructure assets are rarely decommissioned. However, there are instances when some assets are removed from service. Such instances are likely to include closing bridges or removing street lighting, signs, and barriers. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 29 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 5: Planning for Maintenance and Repair - Life Cycle Cost Analysis The key inputs to the life-cycle planning is available budget, maintenance costs, current conditions of the assets, and variety of treatment options. The outputs from the lifecycle process are as follows: Investment strategy: The maintenance strategies, timing, and (direct and indirect) costs determined will enable the production of a profile showing future investment in each year of the analysis period. By analyzing cost profiles across a program of works, it is possible to identify instances in the future where major works on several projects may coincide in a single year. Alternative maintenance strategies can then be considered to alleviate peak demands. Discounted works cost: This is the present-day cost of all future maintenance requirements. It provides a basis for comparing alternative maintenance options and indicates the level of investment that will be required to meet future expenditure. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 30 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 5: Planning for Maintenance and Repair – Cost Estimate The decision-making process to select the road maintenance and repair Typical maintenance and repair work of paved road in Ulaanbaatar investment strategy should align with the life-cycle approach to asset Typical Work management and provide the most efficient and affordable way of No Condition Type necessary Description of Intervention (as per Road Law) Sample type of work performed achieving the performance requirements. Typically, the selection of 1 Excellent Routine daily work and services performed in order Cleaning, bituminous sealing of cracks; maintenance strategies considers the following: maintenance to maintain the normal level of use of roads patching of potholes by filling with base and road facilities; material and patch with surface dressing; • Minimizing whole-life costs: Cost-benefit analysis that quantifies repair of pavement edges; sealing linear the investment costs, including the cost of the treatment and cracks subsequent maintenance interventions, against economic benefits, including safety, traffic delays, and pollution. These should be 2 Good & Periodic work to be performed regularly in order to Surface dressing, spot rehabilitation, overlay assessed for each maintenance strategy. The maintenance strategy Fair maintenance ensure the integrity and safety of roads and (less than 40mm asphalt) with the lowest NPV over the period of analysis provides the road facilities and to improve the level of lowest whole-life cost. Costs may be determined as described use; above. Benefits should be determined by each organization and 3 Poor Repairs (road work to be carried out within a specified Asphalt overlay (more than 60mm) considered in the context of its overall approach to asset rehabilitation) period of time without changing the management. classification and structure in order to determine the level of use of roads and road • Meeting legal requirements: Any legal and institutional mandates facilities and prolong their service life; • Managing risk: Risk-based evaluation focuses on minimizing the risk associated with the asset through an investment strategy while 4 Very Poor Reconstruction work to be carried out within a specified Reconstruction of the whole pavement ensuring that any risks are managed at the minimum cost. This period of time without changing the structure including new sandy subbase, TAMP Guideline incorporates Climate Risk and Road Safety Risks classification and structure in order to gravel base and a double bituminous into the multi-criteria methodology in the prioritization of repair determine the level of use of roads and surface dressing and maintenance works. This way, higher risk assets are prioritized road facilities and prolong their service higher than those not, thereby lowering the risk exposure in the life; medium and long term. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 31 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 5: Planning for Maintenance and Repair – Cost Estimate Roadway Maintenance and Repair Cost Estimation The following assumptive calculation shows that a funding within the range between $ USD 149.4 million to $ USD 353.8 million is needed for Ulaanbaatar’s roads to achieve SOGR, which is based on international (Asia Region) benchmark costs. This exercise intends to show the ultimate funding gap of the repair and construction of urban roads in Ulaanbaatar and can/should be further tailored for more accurate estimation. Total Km to be Type of Work Needed to Benchmark Cost Estimate Benchmark Cost % of Total Roadway in Total Km in the upgraded to Good Total Estimated Cost Total Estimated Cost upgrade pavement to Good (min) Estimate (max) the condition class condition class Condition to achieve (min) (max) condition SOGR Very Poor Reconstruction $ 346,500 $ 643,230 6.63% 95.37255 85.835295 $ 29,741,929.72 $ 55,211,836.80 Poor Strengthening $ 200,508 $ 392,490 26.82% 385.8057 347.22513 $ 69,621,416.37 $ 136,282,391.27 Fair $ 75,028 35.51% 510.81135 459.730215 $ 34,493,006.36 Periodic Maintenance $ 192,780 $ 162,228,707.55 Good $ 40,600 29.49% 424.21365 381.792285 $ 15,500,766.77 Excellent Routine Maintenance $ 1,500 $ 3,378.00 1.54% 22.1529 19.93761 $ 29,906.42 $ 67,349.25 TOTAL $ 149,387,025.62 $ 353,790,284.87 Note: 1. This estimation is made with assumptions made by the team that were not checked/verified/validated with MUB, only for demonstration purpose. 2. This estimation is a rough draft and does not take account of the life cycle costing analysis. The estimated range demonstrates, how much it would cost for MUB to upgrade all its roads to Good condition all at the same time. 3. The costs are adjusted according to the actual/estimated cost ratio of exiting road maintenance projects summarized in the ROCKS 2018 updated database. 4. The cost estimation in the table above is based on the asphalt road surface. The repair and maintenance cost of other road types can be estimated with the assistance of the unit cost price index of major road types. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 32 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Objectives of this section:  Describe the multi-criteria prioritization methodology In a situation where there is budget constraint to repair and maintain all road assets to achieve SOGR simultaneously, a multi-criteria analysis is used to prioritize competing roads sections and its treatment plans. Based on the prioritization of road sections, a road transport investment plan is developed. Given the lack of reliable data with regards to usage and where user costs, benefits and costs are not very well tangible to define, the method of multi-criteria analysis supports both the qualitative and quantitative assessments. Four different criteria are selected, on the basis of their alignment with the municipality’s urban transport objective. These criteria include: • Criterion Number 1: Criticality of the section to the network, comprising of four indicators • Criterion Number 2: Climate Risk • Criterion Number 3: Road Safety Risk • Criterion Number 4: Road performance indicator (road asset condition as the proxy) Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 33 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 1: Criticality Critical assets can be defined as those that are especially significant to societal wellbeing and that therefore merit priority attention by utilities in emergency response and recovery, and those which have a high consequence of failure such as a transport route carrying high volumes of traffic or serving only access route to a hospital (AECOM, 2016). It is important to consider the criticality of a road section within the road network in prioritization for repair and maintenance. Based on the reviews of the literature on best practices in determining the criticality of the road network and RDA’s existing road classification, a criticality framework is proposed which incorporates four indicators: 1. Major Road Links based on Population Density (as of 2019): relative importance of a road section to the network in terms of size of population it provides an access corresponds to the scores ranging from 1 to 5: 5 – >3519 4 – 2084-3518 3 – 1125-2083 2 – 411-1124 1 – <=410. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 34 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 1: Criticality (continued) 2. Ulaanbaatar’s Road Hierarchy: Following scores are allocated to each type of road hierarchy, considering that higher hierarchy roads serving more traffic and serving as key road sections are given higher hierarchy than others. 1 - Arterial I 4 - Connector II 2 - Arterial II 5 - Local Roads 3 - Connector I; Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 35 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 1: Criticality (continued) 3. Essential Services: relative importance of a road section to the network in 4. Lifeline Utilities: relative importance of a road section to the network in terms of terms of accessibility it provides to essential services (e.g. hospitals): accessibility it provides to key lifeline utilities services (e.g. power plant/stations): 5 – 7 or more hospitals 2 –1 hospital 5 – 4 or more power plant/sub-stations 2 –1 power plant/sub-station 4 – 4-6 hospitals 1 – No access 4 – 3 power plant/sub-stations 1 – No access 3 – 2-3 hospitals 3 – 2 power plant/sub-stations More number of lifeline utilities a road section services, higher the score it obtains. More number of hospitals a road section services, higher the score it obtains. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 36 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 1: Criticality (continued) Overall criticality scoring: for each road segment, an overall criticality score is calculated on the basis of scores it obtained from scorings for road hierarchy, major road links based on population, and accessibilities to essential services and key lifelines infrastructure. 5 – 81-100% 2 –21-40% 4 – 61-80% 1 – 0-20% 3 – 41-60% More criticality a road segment has to the network, higher the score it obtains. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 37 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 2: Climate Risk The changes in temperature due to global warming and ensuing change in precipitation patterns and rising frequency of climate- related hazards continue to cause damages to UB’s already fragile road network system, reducing the life of road assets and increasing repair and maintenance costs. Incorporating climate resilience into the planning and management of road assets is a key objective of this TAMP Guideline to more effectively mitigate the climate risks and its impact on the continuity and quality of UB’s road network. Flooding has been identified as one of the main hazards that contribute to accelerated deterioration of UB’s road assets. A flood risk map has been prepared that depicts the drainage channel network and historically flooded areas. Risk = Vulnerability x Exposure Scoring criteria: 4 – Historically flooded area without drainage 3 – Historically flooded area with drainage 2 – Not historically flooded area without drainage 1 – Not historically flooded area with drainage Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 38 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 3: Road Safety Risk As part of the inventory system, a road safety risk map has been prepared based on the 2018 crash data provided by the Transport Police of Mongolia. This map enables the RDA identify the specific locations in the city’s road network where road users are more exposed to road safety risks and pay closer attention to whether these risks are induced by deficiencies and/or poor conditions of transport infrastructure assets such as traffic signs, pedestrian crossings and sidewalks. Using the road crash fatalities/injuries data (fatalities and injuries per year), road safety risk index is calculated per 50-meter segment. Scoring criteria: 5 – 10 or more fatalities/injuries 4 – 7-9 fatalities/injuries 3 – 4-6 fatalities/injuries 2 – 1-3 fatalities/injuries 1 – No fatalities/injuries Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 39 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Methodology Criteria Score 4: Road Performance Indicator Performance indicator of a road section is based on the pavement condition. Pavement deterioration and long-term pavement performance itself is closely related. The need for and the extent of repair and maintenance works can be determined by the performance indicator, whether the projected performance indicator will exceed or will not meet the performance indicator as set forth. It is suggested that the performance indicator is kept higher for busier road sections as to preserve the asset life length versus a lower trafficked road sections. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 40 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization Result: Road Pavement Four different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for road pavement repair and maintenance: • Criterion 1: Criticality; • Criterion 2: Climate risk; • Criterion 3: Road safety risk; and • Criterion 4: Asset condition. On the map to the right, road pavement priorities are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority road section where repair and maintenance needs to be carried out. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 41 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization: Traffic Signs Three different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for repair and maintenance of traffic signs in Ulaanbaatar: • Criterion 1: Criticality • Criterion 2: Road Safety; and • Criterion 3: Asset condition. On the map to the right, traffic signs are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority traffic signs which need to be repaired/maintained to ensure resilient and safe roads. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 42 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization: Road Markings Three different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for repair and maintenance of road markings in Ulaanbaatar: • Criterion 1: Criticality • Criterion 2: Road Safety; and • Criterion 3: Asset condition. On the map to the right, road markings are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority markings which need to be repaired/maintained to ensure resilient and safe roads. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 43 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization: Sidewalks Three different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for repair and maintenance of sidewalks in Ulaanbaatar: • Criterion 1: Criticality • Criterion 2: Road Safety; and • Criterion 3: Asset condition. On the map to the right, sidewalks are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority sections of sidewalks which need to be repaired/maintained for pedestrians to travel safely. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 44 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization: Road Curbs Three different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for repair and maintenance of road curbs in Ulaanbaatar: • Criterion 1: Criticality • Criterion 2: Road Safety; and • Criterion 3: Asset condition. On the map to the right, road curbs are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority curbs which need to be repaired/maintained to ensure resilient and safe roads. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 45 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Section 6: Prioritization of Road Maintenance and Repair Activities - Results Prioritization: Road Guardrails Three different criteria are given equal weights to calculate the asset priority score for repair and maintenance of road guardrails in Ulaanbaatar: • Criterion 1: Criticality • Criterion 2: Road Safety; and • Criterion 3: Asset condition. On the map to the right, road guardrails are ranked on an index from 1 to 5, where 5 shows the highest priority guardrails which need to be repaired/maintained to ensure resilient and safe roads. Due to lack of / issues related to data collected during the Inventory System establishment process as part of the TA, limited number of guardrails have been included. Data collection and processing can be further improved during the second phase of the TA with improved algorithms. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 46 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety TAMP Development Steps TAMP Development Steps Step 1: Develop an asset inventory Step 4: Setting Strategic Objectives, Performance Measures and Targets The asset inventory is a database of all assets within an asset group or service for which This step involves setting the strategic road asset performance objectives that is linked to the asset management plan is being developed. At minimum, it needs to include the overall development objective of the city. Performance gap analysis is used to pavement and bridge assets. This work has been initiated, and a base inventory system determine the gap between current levels and the desired level of service and establish has been established within this scope of TA. performance targets accordingly. Step 2: Assess current conditions and performance levels Step 5 & 6: Determine future demand and criticality To identify rehabilitation and maintenance needs, the condition evaluation must be This step identifies critical assets, which are those assets that are high cost and/or result timely (usually annual or biannual) and as detailed as possible. Undertaking in detrimental levels of service and significant consequences if they fail. By asset condition evaluation serves two purposes: understanding where the greatest risks lie, it is possible to focus investment and attention where it matters most and actively mitigate against non-tolerable risks through • To identify maintenance and rehabilitation needs; the asset management planning process. Risk exposure is calculated as follows: • To monitor the health of the asset network. • Risk exposure = probability of failure × consequence of failure Step 3: Estimate value of assets Step 7: Determine the prioritization methodology for management and planning of Valuation plays an important role in asset management because one of the main road assets purposes of valuation is to enable reporting in monetary terms to reflect the physical conditions of the road network, and to assist the road agency in evaluating the effects of This step identifies the key factors that need to be considered in prioritizing repair and different financing strategies over the life of the asset. maintenance needs of road assets. This can be done through a multi-criteria prioritization methodology, that encompasses key criteria important to achieve UB’s development objectives. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 47 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety TAMP Development Steps TAMP Development Steps Step 8: Determine lifecycle and replacement costs Lifecycle costing (LCC) involves determining all costs of owning and operating the asset from planning through retirement or replacement. The lifecycle cost of an asset is determined as follows: • LCC = capital cost + lifetime operating costs + lifetime maintenance costs + disposal cost − residual value Step 9: Optimize operations and maintenance investment Optimal operations and maintenance investment strategy is then prepared based on the current condition of the asset, the target performance level of the asset in consideration of the demand and criticality to maximize the useful life of the asset at the lowest cost. Step 10: Determine the best funding strategy This step evaluates the available funding strategies to implement the asset management plan’s investment requirements determined in Steps 1 through 9. Step 11: Document the asset management plan It is the final step in the process and is concerned with the packaging of the TAMP information into a form that communicates well with road users and decision makers. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 48 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety ANNEX Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 49 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Annex 1: Cost Estimate for Road Repairs Cost Benchmark Ulaanbaatar historic road repair and maintenance unit cost International road repair and maintenance benchmark cost Measurement Unit price Total cost Regional № Project/activity title Quantity Work Class Work Type Regional Average Regional Maximum unit /MNT/ /MNT/ Minimum 1 Patching pothole m2 70,000 30,000 2,100,000,000 Routine Routine Maintenance $ 1,377.83 $ 5,327.24 2 Patching a linear crack m(length) 7,500 90,660 679,950,000 Periodic Bituminous Pavement 3 Line marking m2 30,600 111,931 3,425,088,600 Preventative Treatment $ 15,370.75 $ 6,172.76 $ 25,595.25 4 Sign piece 200,000 3,000 600,000,000 Surface Treatment 5 Rail /tall/ m(length) 140,000 250 35,000,000 Resurfacing $ 23,478.65 $ 5,176.92 $ 114,202.81 6 Rail short/ m(length) 68,000 280 19,040,000 Asphalt Mix 7 Guardrail installation m(length) 80,000 400 32,000,000 Resurfacing $ 100,549.10 $ 19,287.36 $ 316,499.42 Rehabilitation Asphalt Strengthening $ 200,508.20 $ 41,209.50 $ 684,886.79 8 Pedestrian rail m(length) 135,642 430 58,326,060 Concrete Pavement 9 Speed bumps m2 70,000 500 35,000,000 Restoration $ 102,836.85 $ 102,836.85 $ 102,836.85 Source: Road Development Department Ulaanbaatar Reconstruction $ 322,531.97 $ 3,433.89 $ 2,271,064.46 Inflation Adjustment from 2000 US$ 1.5 Ulaanbaatar Road Repair and Maintenance Unit Cost Price Index, by Major Road Types Source: World Bank ROCKS. Road Costs Knowledge Systems Repair & Maintenance Cost coefficient (normalized based on Road Types Measurement Unit /MNT thousand the unit cost of concrete road ) Concrete 1km 7246.6 0.78 Asphalt 1km 9235.5 1.00 Gravel 1km 4891 0.53 Improved Soil 1km 3666.2 0.40 Source: 2019 Base Cost Normative for the Road and Bridge Routine Maintenance and Repair Works 84-021-201. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 50 Transport Infrastructure Asset Management for Climate Resilience and Road Safety Annex 1: Cost Estimate for Road Repairs Summary of Road Repair Cost Estimation Calculation formula Estimated Cost Road type (USD/km) Roadway $166,037 Concrete Affiliated assets $9,123 Total $175,161 Roadway $211,608 Asphalt Affiliated assets $9,123 Total $220,731 Roadway $112,065 Gravel Affiliated assets $9,123 Total $121,188 Roadway $84,002 where Improved soil Affiliated assets $9,123 · Bt=price coefficient for road type t, e.g. the coefficient of Total $93,125 the asphalt road is 1.00, coefficient of the concrete road is 0.78; · Cc,a=price coefficient for condition c, 1 if not applicable Note: for a; e.g. the cleaning work is independent of the road 1. The estimated cost refers to the accumulated cost based on our estimation condition; 2. Ratio refers to cost estimation result compared to international reference cost, approximately 20,000 · Qt,c= quantity of asset type t in the condition c; USD/km · Xa= unit cost for activity a; 3. The costs are adjusted according to the actual/estimated cost ratio of exiting road maintenance projects summarized in the ROCKS 2018 updated database · Ft,a= amount (in unit) of activity that shall be carried out for asset type t per km of road. Transport Asset Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 51