Are Green and Digital Skills a Pathway to Jobs in Middle East and North Africa? Shwetlena Sabarwal Sai Sri Ram Sribhashyam Damilola T. Kadiri Surayya Masood September 2025 Official Use Only ©2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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This report is part of the task “Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition” (P502135) produced by the MENA People team. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Sabarwal, Shwetlena, Sai Sri Ram Sribhashyam, Damilola T. Kadiri, and Surayya Masood. 2025. Are Green and Digital Skills a Pathway to Jobs in Middle East and North Africa? © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: Dania Kibbi 1 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ 3 Summary................................................................................................................................................. 4 Technology and climate transitions could have big implications for jobs in MENA .............................. 5 Youth employment is a pressing challenge in MENA ......................................................................... 5 MENA is undergoing a climate transition ........................................................................................... 6 MENA is undergoing a technology transition..................................................................................... 6 To harness these opportunities, MENA needs skilled workers .......................................................... 7 How to think about demand for skills? Data and Methodology ............................................................ 8 Green skills demand in MENA .............................................................................................................. 10 Insight 1: MENA economies are demanding green skills ................................................................. 10 Insight 2: Most green jobs require some tertiary education ........................................................... 13 Box 1: Green skilling opportunities are closer than we think in Saudi Arabia ..................................... 15 Insight 3: Green skills are being demanded in many sectors, including some unexpected ones .... 16 Insight 4: Demand for green skills is unpredictable ......................................................................... 19 Digital skills demand in MENA .............................................................................................................. 20 MENA’s Clean Energy Sector – A Deep Dive ........................................................................................ 28 Young people and policymakers often misperceive skilling opportunities.......................................... 33 How should policymakers harness the shifting skills demand? ........................................................... 34 Priority 1: Adaptable workers through information, strong foundations, and flexible pathways. .. 36 Information ................................................................................................................................... 36 Strong Foundations....................................................................................................................... 36 Flexible Pathways......................................................................................................................... 37 Priority 2: Aligned and inclusive systems ......................................................................................... 38 Aligned systems ........................................................................................................................... 38 Inclusive systems .......................................................................................................................... 39 Green and digital skilling offer win-win opportunities, but governments need to seize them ........... 39 References ............................................................................................................................................ 40 2 Acknowledgements This report is part of the MENA People Flagship “Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition” (P502135). The report was written by Shwetlena Sabarwal, Lead Economist, Sai Sri Ram Sribhashyam, Consultant, Damilola T. Kadiri, Consultant, and Surayya Masood, Consultant; with inputs from Farhad Panahov, Marla Spivak, and Anshuman Gupta. Comments and strategic guidance from peer reviewers and MENA People Flagship team members are also gratefully acknowledged, including: Denizhen Duran, Johannes Koettl, Raheel Qamar, Matteo Morgandi, Adel Ben Youssef, Yevgeniya Savchenko, and Alex Twinomugisha. The flagship is a product of the MENA People team, produced under the strategic leadership of Fadia Saadah, (MENA People Regional Practice Director) and co-led by Matteo Morgandi, Lead Human Development Economist, HMNDR and Fadila Caillaud, Practice Manager. 3 Summary To what extent are green and digital skills being demanded in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)? We answer this question using over 276,000 online job postings between January 2022 and March 2023 across six MENA countries 1. We triangulate these data with selected labor force survey data and other information to reveal four key insights: (i) In MENA economies, digital skills demand is quite high across all sectors, while green skills demand is mostly concentrated in the energy sector. Nearly one in three jobs advertised online (37 percent) require at least one digital skill. In contrast, only 6 percent of jobs advertised online require at least one green skill; but this proportion is 26 percent within the energy sector. (ii) Despite its concentration in the energy sector, green skills demand is starting to also emerge in sectors not typically thought of as ‘green’, e.g. finance, retail trade, arts and entertainment etc. (iii) Most digital and green job opportunities require high levels of education. Nearly 80 percent of digital jobs and 73 percent of green jobs require tertiary education. (iv) The demand for green and digital skills is rapidly evolving and can be highly unpredictable. For instance, nearly a quarter of digital jobs across the region (23 percent) are now asking for AI skills. The bottom-line is that, for MENA, green and digital skills demand is bigger and closer than many might believe. Given the magnitude, permeability, and unpredictability of this skills- demand, merely providing narrowly defined technical skills will not work. Governments need to focus on creating an adaptive skills ecosystem and focus on facilitation not just provision. For this, governments should prioritize strong foundations, flexible pathways, and better information for youth. They should also recognize digital skills as increasingly foundational for formal labor market entry – and potentially also as gateway skills for emerging areas, including green skills. 4 Technology and climate transitions could have big implications for jobs in MENA “I educate my students about the environment. I can see the pride in their eyes when they take action ... My hope is that they grow up holding onto those values so they can play their part in saving the planet.” - A teacher in Aqaba, Jordan, June 2024 (UNSDG 2024) Across the MENA region, promising shifts are already underway. MENA countries are no longer just reacting to challenges; they are proactively investing in future-oriented sectors that could redefine the region’s economic trajectory. For example, Morocco’s Noor- Ouarzazate solar complex is one of the world’s largest, with ongoing investments exceeding $3 billion. When complete, it will provide clean electricity to over a million households and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 760,000 tons annually (Kerr, Maheshwari and Sottong. 2016). Digital adoption is also accelerating with the share of individuals with internet access jumping from 57 percent to 76 percent from 2018 to 2020, higher than the world value of 60 percent (Mohieldin and Ramadan 2024). MENA’s population is also responding with creativity and resilience, but many challenges still persist. Early-stage investments in startups were up 75 percent between 2016 and 2017 (Arezki, Belhaj and Shah 2019), especially in fintech markets which are expected to grow by $125 million a year until 2022 (Bossone, et al. 2021). Yet despite this momentum, there are still deeper labor market pressures – particularly for youth, who continue to face barriers to employment. Youth employment is a pressing challenge in MENA At 25 percent, MENA has the highest youth unemployment rate in the world, double the global average (ILO 2023). This statistic underscores a growing crisis, with nearly 1 in 3 young people in the region disconnected from the workforce and education system, neither employed, enrolled in school, nor participating in any form of training (ILO 2024). The situation is further exacerbated by MENA’s exceptionally low female labor force participation, which, at just 18 percent (ILO 2024), is the lowest globally. This means that half of the region’s youth population faces significant barriers to entering the workforce, limiting both economic growth and social progress. The shortage of meaningful opportunities for young people in MENA poses a serious threat to the region’s long-term stability and prosperity. Despite 60 percent of the population achieving at least a lower secondary education degree, this progress has yet to translate into significant employment opportunities (Dione and Gatti 2025). Desirable jobs are scarce, and with nearly 300 million young people in MENA expected to enter the job market by 2050, the stakes are high (Dione and Gatti 2025). Labor markets in the region are making 5 poor use of the available human talent and resources, thus inhibiting the economic potential of the countries and people in the region. Amid these challenges, rapid advancements in technology and the growing importance of climate action present new opportunities and risks for young people in MENA. Artificial intelligence and digital transformation are disrupting traditional roles while also creating demand for digital skills and tech-driven roles. Similarly, the global shift towards green economies is expanding opportunities in sectors like renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and environmental management. Leveraging these avenues can help bridge the employment gap and empower MENA’s youth with the skills needed for the future. MENA is undergoing a climate transition In 2015, 16 out of 19 countries 2 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) made pledges for a green transition - shifting towards more environmentally sustainable economic growth. Countries as varied as Morocco and Yemen have all made at least some commitment to progress on this path and are taking concrete steps to this end. This is evident particularly in the energy sector. Egypt is trying to increase the renewable share in the country’s energy mix from 11 to 42 percent by 2030 (World Bank Group 2022). Saudi Arabia plans to generate 50 percent of its electricity from clean sources, especially solar energy, by 2030 (International Trade Administration 2021). In fact, as an early adopter of renewable energy, especially solar, by 2023 Jordan had achieved nearly 94 percent of its emissions reduction target (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). The MENA region could potentially generate 10 million new jobs by 2050 through decarbonization and green industrial growth. 3 Most of these are expected to be in the energy sector. For instance, investments in clean energy in Morocco are expected to deliver almost 770,000 net jobs per year from 2020 to 2050, with trade, commerce, and services sectors seeing the largest employment expansion (Sarkar and Nguyen 2021). In Egypt, transitioning to renewable energy would create an estimated 67,000 additional jobs per year, which over a 30-year period could lead to over 2 million economy-wide total jobs (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). In Jordan, similar transitions to renewable energy can result in the creation of 30,000 economy-wide new jobs per year (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). MENA is undergoing a technology transition MENA is also in the midst of a technological transition, which has been ushering in its own job opportunities. A full digitalization of MENA economies could increase employment in manufacturing firms by at least 5 percent over 30 years, equivalent to at least 1.5 million jobs over the 30 years and an average of 50,000 more manufacturing jobs a year. These jobs could benefit women in particular. Such digitization could double the female labor force 6 participation rate by about 20 percentage points over a 30-year period (from 40 million women to 80 million) (World Bank 2021). Green and technological transitions don’t just imply new jobs. They also mean big transformations to existing jobs and the extinction of some jobs. The energy sectors in Middle East and North Africa might face net job losses of around 300,000 and 350,000 jobs respectively due to the green transitions (ILO 2018). The same goes for the technological transition. Artificial Intelligence (AI) could contribute $320 billion to the MENA economy by 2030 (The Economist Group 2022). However, this growth is likely to be driven mostly by costs saved from automating processes – leading to reduced employment. As many as 45 percent could be automated by 2030, across Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and UAE (aus dem Moore, Chandran and Schubert 2018). Up-skilling and re-skilling these workers will be essential for reducing the social costs of these transitions, in terms of unemployment, displacement, and social unrest (Sanchez-Reaza, Ambasz and and Djukic 2023). These transitions are not occurring in isolation, in fact, digital and green transitions go hand in hand, each reinforcing and accelerating the other. Many green transformations are being powered by digital technologies - from smart energy grids and emissions monitoring to precision agriculture and supply chain optimization. At the same time, digital infrastructure itself - like data centers and AI systems - carries a growing environmental footprint. This duality reinforces the need for integrated skill development approaches that prepare workers not just for one transition, but for both. To harness these opportunities, MENA needs skilled workers To harness the opportunities implicit in these transitions and minimize losses, economies need skilled workers. Skilled workers can accelerate green and technological transitions; their scarcity can thwart them. When countries make fiscal investments for ongoing transitions, they often do it in areas that already have high levels of skills. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act created 40 percent more jobs in communities with higher pre-existing green skill levels than average skill communities (Popp, et al. 2020). Global LinkedIn data shows that for workers that transition into green jobs (defined as jobs with sustainability at their core) 81 percent already had green skills prior to getting the new job (LinkedIn 2023). 7 How to think about demand for skills? Data and Methodology We classify skills into green and non-green using the European Classification of Occupations, Skills and Competences (ESCO) classification (ESCO 2022). As per this classification, these are the skills required for a green transition. ESCO labels green skills as those skills and knowledge concepts that are needed to live in, develop and support a society which reduces the effects of human activity on the environment. The labelling of skills and knowledge concepts as green follows a methodology based on a three-step process, which combines human labelling and validation with the use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. This approach ensures both expert oversight and scalable, data-driven classification. In practice, these skills span a broad spectrum and as such their demand and application varies across countries. They include both advanced and basic skills, both technical and socioemotional skills, and both new skills as well as adaptations to existing skill. Adapted from Sabarwal et. al (2024) We use the same approach for defining digital skills. ESCO defines digital skills as a combination of knowledge, skills, and attitudes related to the confident, critical, and responsible use of digital technologies for learning, work, and societal participation, encompassing areas like information literacy, communication, content creation, and safety. The demand for green and digital skills is measured using online job portal data for five countries scraped by JobKred. We obtained data between Jan 2022 and March 2023, from 52,300 job postings for Egypt, 16,502 for Morocco, 19,404 for Qatar, 16,502 for Morocco, 59,233 for Saudi Arabia, and 7,162 for Tunisia. To benchmark these results, we use two comparator countries – India with 1.8 million postings and Kenya for 11,500 postings. 8 We use generative AI to extract skills mentioned in the job posting and categorize them. To this, the authors apply the ESCO classification into green and non-green skills to categorize jobs as green (if at least one green skill was included) and non-green (if no green skill was included). Similarly, we apply the ESCO classification into digital and non-digital skills to categorize jobs as digital (if at least one digital skill was included) and non-digital jobs (if no digital skill was included). Using education requirements, we then classify these into three levels: • Low education: Primary level of education, e.g. elementary occupations • Medium education: Lower secondary level of education, e.g. support, services and sales, plant and machine operators • High education: First stage of tertiary education, e.g. technicians, managers, associate professionals We supplement the data on green skills demand with some data on supply from Egypt (2022), using labor force household survey data. Granularity of occupational data in this survey is limited to 3-digit level aggregation (hereafter ‘occupation group’). These data present number of workers in various occupation groups. Occupation groups are overlaid (cross- walked) with the ESCO skills required for occupations in their group and classified into green and non-green using the ESCO definition. To obtain a list of skills at that aggregation, we roll up all the skill sets of occupations that fall into an occupation group. Using this we define green and non-green occupation groups along a spectrum. An occupation group contains several occupations. For each occupation, we calculate what share of the total skills used in this occupation are green. Next, we average this across all occupations within the occupational group. Using this metric, occupational groups are classified into four categories: • High-green occupation-group: On average, within the occupations in this group, more than 15 percent of the skills used are green skills. In this group we can say with some confidence that nearly all workers have at least one green skill. • Medium-green occupation-group: On average, within the occupations in this group, between 5-15 percent of the skills used are green skills. • Low-green occupation-group: On average, within the occupations in this group, between 0-5 percent of the skills used are green skills. • No-green occupation-group: 0 percent of skills required in occupations within this group are green. There are three caveats to our analysis: First, our green and digital skills classification is not contextually adapted to the countries where it is being applied. While using the ESCO classification of skills offers an advantage of applying well-vetted concepts in a systematic and 9 consistent way, it is not fully customized by the labor market realities of each country. Second, the data for the demand for green skills comes from online job portals that offer a limited and non-representative slice of the labor market. Importantly, it overlooks the informal labor market which is very important in MENA countries. Third, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the supply side - such as the availability, quality, and accessibility of training programs and workforce readiness, especially when it comes to green and digital skills. This gap highlights a key area for further research to better understand how well-equipped the labor force is to meet emerging demands. Nonetheless, these data provide an important glimpse into the evolving dynamics within a big slice of the formal labor market. Green skills demand in MENA “Trillions of dollars will be required to adopt clean electricity, retrofit homes and businesses, establish new manufacturing processes, and protect cities and towns from changing weather patterns … To put all this public and private capital to use, … countr(ies) need a sizable workforce.” - Joseph Kane and Adie Tomer, Brookings, July 2023 (Kane and Tomer 2023) What types of green skills are in demand in MENA? Global studies on green skills point to higher-demand for occupation-specific cognitive and technical skills, certain socio-emotional skills, and knowledge about sustainability practices (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). But how is this demand manifesting in MENA? Below we discuss this by presenting four insights that emerge from latest data. Insight 1: MENA economies are demanding green skills Across six MENA countries, around 6 percent of the job postings require at least one green skill. Our novel data shows that in Saudi Arabia, 10 percent of jobs posted to online job portals between January 2022 and March 2023 were green jobs (in that they required at least one green skill). This rate was nearly 8 percent in Morocco and 7.3 percent in Qatar. In UAE, over 6,100 jobs out of the 121,114 jobs posted online require at least one green skill (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). To contextualize green skills demand in MENA, we show that this demand is in range with what we see in comparator countries like India and Kenya. 10 Figure 1: Green skills are being demanded in MENA countries Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023 Green skills are already being applied in a tangible way in Egypt, as seen by labor force survey data. Around 78 percent of non-agricultural workers in Egypt work in occupation groups that utilize at least some green skills (see Figure 2). This is not to say that all these workers have green skills. It simply shows that most workers are employed in occupations that are already utilizing at least some green skills. Figure 2: Share of employment by greenness categories in Egypt LFS Source: Authors’ analysis using Egypt labor force survey data (2022). High demand for green skills is also visible in the wage premium associated with green jobs in Egypt. There are signs that green jobs are more financially attractive compared to non- 11 green jobs. Labor force survey data from Egypt shows that the average monthly income for salaried employees with post-secondary education is around 3,191 Egyptian pounds in non- green occupations and 5,249 Egyptian pounds for those in high-green occupations (where more than 15 percent of skills used are green). In some MENA contexts, green skills demand may soon outpace supply. Globally, job postings for green jobs are growing nearly twice as fast as the number of workers with skills needed to fill them (LinkedIn 2023). Even during hiring slowdowns, vacancies requiring at least one green skill have seen a median increase exceeding 15 percent (LinkedIn 2023). These patterns may also be on the horizon for MENA. For instance, over the recent years the demand for green talent in UAE has recorded a 10.4 percent growth while that in Saudi Arabia saw a 13.6 percent rise in a year (LinkedIn 2023). In fact, green skills supply may already be a constraint in MENA, especially in the energy sector. Transitioning to renewable energy in Tunisia could create an estimated 26,800 new job opportunities, requiring new and additional competencies and skills. And yet, an analysis of all higher education institutions in Tunisia reveals that many crucial skills are receiving limited attention. For example, across all skills that are related to energy supply, only 32 percent are offered at the Master’s level or above (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). A survey of 71 employers in Jordan shows that 26 percent believe that there is a limited availability of qualified candidates with green skills and 24 percent believe that there is a lack of awareness around these skills in the job market (Al-Salaymeh 2023). Figure 3: Top green skills being demanded in Saudi Arabia Share of job postings with each green skill Advise on corporate social responsibility 13% Environmental engineering 12% Safety engineering 8% Offshore constructions and facilities 8% Advise on offshore renewable energies subjects 7% Develop efficiency plans for logistics operations 6% Conduct environmental site assessments 5% Follow health and safety procedures in construction 4% Collaborate on international energy projects 4% Carry out energy management of facilities 4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023 12 Insight 2: Most green jobs require some tertiary education “In today’s hiring landscape, you don’t need to count yourself out of the running if you don’t have a degree. What’s more important is to show that you’re driven, passionate, and possess the skills that the workforce needs.” - Jeff Mazur, Harvard Business Review, August 2021 (Mazur 2021) Green skills demand can disproportionately target those with high education levels. Across six MENA countries, the strongest demand for green skills targets those with high levels of education (see Figure 4 below). Nearly 73 percent of online green job postings across six MENA countries demand high levels of education and skills. This is also evident within sectors. In Egypt, 51 percent of workers in potential green jobs along the renewable energy and energy efficiency value chain are medium skill workers and 46 percent are high skill workers (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). This concentration of green skills demand among the highly educated in MENA is consistent with global patterns. For instance, in the US, green skills are associated with higher levels of education and formal training (Consoli, et al. 2015). Online job posting data shows that 74 percent and 60 percent of online green jobs postings in India and Kenya demand higher skill workers. However, on average, 10 percent of green skills roles advertised across six MENA countries require only lower-secondary education. Out of over 1,400 green jobs posted online in Qatar between 2022 and 2023, 17 percent require only lower secondary education; this number is 11 percent for Egypt and 10 percent for Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and UAE. In Qatar, the distribution of green job postings for low-, medium- and high-education levels is nearly the same, at 17 percent for low- and 18 percent for both medium- and high-education levels (Figure 4). 13 Figure 4: Green skills are also relevant for workers with low- and medium-education levels Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023. Note: High Education Level: First stage of tertiary education - Managers, Professionals; Medium: First stage of tertiary education (short or medium duration) - Technicians and associate professionals; Low: Lower secondary level of education - Support, Service and sales, skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers, craft and related trades workers, plant and machine operators, and assemblers. Green jobs are often associated with STEM skills. However, in MENA, STEM skills are not the only pathway to green jobs. Only 32 percent of green job postings across six MENA countries demand STEM skills. Among the online green-job postings in Tunisia and Morocco, less than 46 percent of green jobs required a STEM skill. In Qatar and Saudi Arabia, this proportion was even lower with only 27 percent of green jobs requiring a STEM skill. In other words, across all six countries included in the analysis, less than half of the online postings for green jobs needed a STEM skill at all. An analysis of the renewable energy sector in Egypt shows that at least 33 percent of jobs require non-technical skills highlighting an increasing demand for interdisciplinary skills and knowledge (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). This point is also recognized in most definitions (ESCO 2022) which acknowledge that these skills include not just technical competencies but also general/foundational competencies and even socio-emotional competencies. 14 Figure 5: STEM skills are not the only pathway to green jobs Share of green job postings with STEM skills by countries Tunisia 46% India 43% Morocco 43% Egypt 38% UAE 30% Saudi Arabia 27% Qatar 27% Kenya 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023. Box 1: Green skilling opportunities are closer than we think in Saudi Arabia Solar sector jobs in Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco, traditionally known as the world’s largest oil Share of Job Postings Seeking Solar company, is expanding its involvement in renewable energy, A solar energy engineer is a Engineers in KS 8% including solar power. From the online job postings majority professional who designs and develop 8% the solar energy systems for residential of the solar engineering jobs are from Saudi Aramco. 8% or commercial use. 8% 67% Skill level: High Skill – Professionals with First Aramco Progressive Recruitment stage of tertiary education SITE TECHNOLOGY Watsila Yellow Door Energy 50% Top skills required by solar engineering jobs No of job postings design solar energy systems By 2030, Saudi Arabia plans to generate 50% of its electricity from clean sources, with solar energy being a major advise on offshore renewable energies subjects component. This ambitious goal is part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, which Skills perform feasibility study on solar heating seeks to diversify its energy mix, reduce dependence on fossil supervise work on design planning fuels, and promote sustainable development. A demand for solar energy engineering jobs is required to perform a feasibility study on solar absorption cooling significantly increase the deployment of solar energy technologies for achieving the Kingdom’s target by 2030. Key socio-emotional and digital skills are important for green jobs. Global evidence shows that specific socio-emotional skills like leadership, management competencies, and the ability to adapt to and facilitate change, are critical in green jobs (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). Online job postings also show that jobs that demand green skills often also demand socio-emotional skills. 15 For instance, in Egypt, demand for green skills in the textile industry co-occurs with the demand for soft skills related to ‘approaching challenges positively’ (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). A survey of employers in Jordan shows that 79 percent believe that communication, interpersonal and people skills are important for jobs related to the energy transition fields (Al-Salaymeh 2023). Insight 3: Green skills are being demanded in many sectors, including some unexpected ones Most people associate green jobs with specific sectors like energy and transport. And these sectors do see a high demand for green skills, because they are usually implicated in high carbon emissions. Empirical data bears this out. In Morocco, around 70 percent of green skills demand is concentrated within the energy sector. But this is not the case in other MENA countries. Across these six countries, about 26 percent of all green jobs are in the energy sector. Figure 6 below shows that in Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and UAE, the proportion of online green job postings in the energy sector is only between 15 and 20 percent. This gap suggests that other MENA countries have big margins to pivot their energy sector more towards greener trajectories, just as Morocco has done. Figure 6: There is strong green skills demand in MENA’s energy sector Proportion of green job postings that are in the energy sector Morocco 70% Saudi Arabia 23% Tunisia 22% UAE 21% Egypt 17% Qatar 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023. In MENA, green skills are also being demanded in sectors that are not traditionally associated with green jobs. This is evident when we compare green skills demand in some conventional green sectors (energy, construction, transport) with some unconventional green 16 sectors. Across the six countries examined, while 5 percent of online job postings in the transportation sector, a traditionally green sector, are green jobs, we see the exact same distribution in the financial and insurance activities sector (a sector not generally associated with green jobs). In Saudi Arabia, 6 percent of online job postings in the transportation sector are green. At the same time, 9 percent of all online job postings in the financial and insurance services sector are green. Similarly, in Saudi Arabia and UAE, 3 percent of online job postings in the wholesale and retail trade industry are green (Figure 7). Figure 7: Green skills are demanded across a range of industries in Saudi Arabia and UAE Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data between Jan 2022 and Mar 2023. Even on the supply side, labor force data from Egypt shows high use of green skills in some sectors not normally associated with green jobs. The top industries (outside of agriculture) showing high use of green skills include construction, manufacturing and water supply and waste management (Figure 8) (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). However, sectors like wholesale and retail are also exhibiting high use of green skills. In fact, if we were to group selected sectors into those ‘conventionally linked to green jobs’ (agriculture, mining, energy, construction, transportation, water supply and waste management 4) and ‘not conventionally linked to green jobs’ (wholesale and retail, accommodation and hospitality, information and communication, finance and insurance etc.); the average use of green skills (as a share of total skills used) across the two ranges shows only marginally higher numbers within the former set of industries (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). 17 Figure 8: Green skills are needed in a wide range of sectors in the Egyptian Economies Source: Authors’ analysis of Egypt Labor Force Survey 2022, cross-walk with ESCO skills classification. Another mistaken idea about green skills is that they are narrowly defined by sector. This idea has emerged, in part, because a lot of green jobs discussion has happened within the context of specific, highly technical sectors, such as energy. It also comes about because a lot of the conversation may focus on re-training existing workers in green skills rather than about preparing new workers. However, many green skills are highly versatile and cross-cutting. As in, the same green skills are being demanded across a range of different industries and sectors. For instance, advise on corporate social responsibility, one of the most commonly occurring green skill in job postings, is demanded across 12 industries in Egypt. Logistics and operations is another skill demanded across sectors, required among jobs postings across 14 industries in Egypt (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). The figure below shows the most versatile green skills and the number of industries they are being demanded in, using online job portal data. The top green skills are utilized in a diverse range of sectors. Below we show the most versatile green skills across MENA countries, which include skills around corporate social responsibility, sustainable tourism, sustainable procurement etc. 18 Figure 9: Some green skills are versatile and are being used across many industries Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023. ESCO skills classification applied using Generative AI, ISIC Industry Insight 4: Demand for green skills is unpredictable Demand for green skills is evolving rapidly. Nearly 94 percent of business leaders report that they expect employees to pick up new skills on the job, a sharp increase from 65 percent in 2018 (Masterson 2021). In fact, in the UAE, 29 percent of individuals hired in the green job of “Energy Specialist” in 2022 had no prior green experience (LinkedIn 2023). The types of jobs that are asking for green skills can also change quite rapidly. Even specific job titles that require green skills can change substantially over short periods of time. For instance, in Saudi Arabia, job titles such as ‘Climatologist’ and ‘Forestry Technician’ did not exist from January – September 2022 yet were being demanded in October 2022. Similarly, in Egypt, online job advertisements for ‘Freight transport dispatchers’ were seeking green skills related to developing efficiency plans for logistics operations in the period October 2022 - March 2023 but not in January – September 2022. This is corroborated by LinkedIn data from advanced economies, where some green jobs are quite new, but growing quickly. These 19 include job titles like sustainability manager and energy auditor which did not exist a few years ago (LinkedIn 2023). Because of the changing and unpredictable demand patterns, young people require a foundation of transferable cognitive and socio-emotional skills that can make them adaptable. Adaptability—the ability to respond to unexpected circumstances and to unlearn and relearn quickly – requires a combination of certain cognitive skills (critical thinking, problem solving) and socio-emotional skills (curiosity, creativity). These skills ensure that young people can pick up new skills faster, can apply core competencies in a variety of ways, and can adjust more readily to changing demands. They are the best inoculation against job uncertainty as economies go through destabilizing green transitions and future jobs take shape. Digital skills demand in MENA “60% of employment in 2018 was in types of jobs that didn’t exist before 1940.” - David Rotman, MIT Technology Review, January 2024 (Rotman 2024) There is strong demand for digital skills in MENA. Between 28-64 percent of all online job postings across MENA countries require at least one digital skill. Nearly 50 percent of all online job postings in Morocco and Egypt are digital jobs. In Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE, digital jobs make up a third of all online job postings, at 28 percent, 36 percent and 31 percent, respectively (Figure 10 below). These numbers indicate a much higher share of labor market demand compared to other countries. Across ten high income countries, digital occupations constitute 6 – 12 percent of total online job postings (OECD 2022). 20 Figure 10: Digital skills are being demanded in MENA countries Share of online job postings that require digital skills Tunisia 64% India 59% Morocco 50% Egypt 47% Saudi Arabia 36% Kenya 34% UAE 31% Qatar 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 The robust application of digital skills within the economy is evident when we look at Egypt’s labor force survey data. At least 93 percent of workers are in occupation groups that utilize at least some digital skills (Figure 11). Figure 11: Digital skills are highly prevalent in the Egypt labor force Share of employment by digital skill share in Egypt Only 7 % of workers in Egypt are in Non-digital 7% occupation groups that require no digital skills at all Low-digital 23% Medium-digital 35% High-digital 36% Source: Authors’ analysis using Egypt labor force survey data (2022). This high demand for digital skills manifests across several sectors, signaling strong penetration of these skills across MENA economies. From sectors like arts and recreation, to construction or financial activities, industries are experiencing a shift towards digital transformation. More than a third of jobs in construction, and arts, entertainment and recreation across all six MENA countries require digital skills. In Tunisia, 73 percent of all online job postings in construction and 54 percent in finance and insurance are digital jobs. In Saudi 21 Arabia’s arts, entertainment and recreation industry, over 60 percent of all online job postings are digital jobs (Figure 12). The fact that digital jobs make up a significant share of these sectors shows that digital skills are increasingly becoming the backbone of MENA economies. Figure 12: Digital skills are being demanded across several sectors in MENA Share of all job postings that are digital jobs, by sector Tunisia, 73% Egypt, 41% Qatar, 40% Construction Saudi Arabia, 36% Morocco, 33% UAE, 27% Tunisia, 54% Egypt, 26% Qatar, 32% Financial and insurance activities Saudi Arabia, 34% Morocco, 44% UAE, 23% Tunisia, 36% Egypt, 46% Qatar, 38% Arts, entertainment and recreation Saudi Arabia, 62% Morocco, 40% UAE, 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 Digital skills are highly versatile - the same skills can be applied across a range of sectors. For instance, graphic design skills are being utilized in 19 industries in Egypt and UAE, 18 in Saudi Arabia, 15 in Morocco, and 14 in Qatar and Tunisia. ICT project management is another skill demanded across sectors, required among job postings in 20 industries in Saudi Arabia, 19 in UAE, and 17 in Egypt and Qatar. The figure below shows the most versatile digital skills and the number of industries they are being demanded in, using online job portal data. 22 Figure 13: Some digital skills are cross-cutting and being used across many industries Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 Just like green skills, the demand for digital skills is more strongly concentrated among the highly educated. However, the skew towards the highly educated is somewhat more pronounced in digital skills. Nearly 80 percent of all online digital job postings across six MENA countries require high levels of education, compared to 73 percent of online green job postings. Employers are increasingly seeking candidates with specialized knowledge in these areas, according to online job posting data. More than 80 percent of all online job postings demanding digital skills in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and UAE are concentrated among high-educated workers (Figure 15). 23 Figure 14: Digital jobs are mostly available to those with high education levels Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 There is an emerging intersection between green and digital skills. Digital skills are not just foundational for workers - they are also a passport to green skills, especially for the highly educated. In Tunisia and Morocco, digital skills are being demanded in nearly 45 percent of all online green job postings (Figure 15). Almost a quarter of green job postings require digital skills in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The demand for digital skills within green jobs mirrors the broader trends seen across all online job postings in MENA. In most countries, the demand for digital skills in green jobs is catching up to non-green jobs. 24 Figure 15: Many green jobs are demanding digital skills in MENA Share of green and non-green job postings with digital skills Green Job Postings, 44% Morocco Non-Green Job Postings, 51% 36% Egypt 47% 26% UAE 32% 24% Saudi Arabia 37% 24% Qatar 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 In fact, digital skills are nearly as essential for green jobs as STEM skills. Data from online job postings in Saudi Arabia and Egypt highlights the presence of this co-demand (Figure 16). In Saudi Arabia, 27 percent of online green job postings demand STEM skills and at the same time, 24 percent demand digital skills. Similarly in Egypt, 38 percent of online job postings ask for STEM skills and 36 percent ask for digital skills. Figure 16: Digital skills are as likely to be co-demanded in green jobs as STEM skills Share of online green job postings that demand these skills Digital skills, 36% Egypt STEM skills, 38% Digital skills, 24% Saudi Arabia STEM skills, 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 25 Just like green skills, the demand for digital skills is also highly unpredictable. This can be seen in the emerging focus on AI skills. The adoption of new technologies such as software, robots, and AI increases the productivity of some workers, while at the same time reducing the value of other workers and even eliminating some jobs entirely. However, these interactions and long run effects are complex, making them hard to study and even harder to predict (Frank, et al. 2019). One estimate suggests that nearly 45 percent of jobs in MENA could be automated by 2018 (aus dem Moore, Chandran and Schubert 2018). While AI may eliminate some jobs, it will likely alter the tasks for even more jobs. Established theory indicates that adoption technology benefits higher skill workers more (Acemoglu and Autor 2011), however the effects of AI are more complicated. Higher wage higher skill workers are often more exposed to AI (Webb 2020), and we see this in MENA as well, where 91 percent of all digital jobs requiring AI skills are demanding higher skill levels. However, it also makes less skilled workers, such as taxi drivers and customer support agents, more productive, by substituting technology for education (Koettl, Tamayo and Zeid 2024). Demand for AI skills is already evident in MENA. Around 23 percent of all online digital job postings in five countries require AI skills. Over a quarter of all digital job postings in Egypt are asking for AI skills, with other countries in the region close behind (Figure 17). In Saudi Arabia, UAE and Morocco, AI skills are being demanded in 21 percent, 23 percent and 19 percent of digital jobs, respectively. This demand is also being reflected through ambitious e-government initiatives. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have distinguished themselves by creating AI-specific government departments, positioning them ahead of many countries, including the United States, in global AI strategy rankings (TortoiseMedia 2023). Data analysis has increasingly become the top AI skill being demanded in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. 26 Figure 17: Demand for AI skills is growing in digital jobs Source: Authors’ analysis using online job portal data from Jan 2022-Mar 2023 27 MENA’s Clean Energy Sector – A Deep Dive Achieving clean energy targets in solar and wind across five MENA countries could create an estimated additional 200,000 new job opportunities 5 each year over the next 40 years (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). Table 1 shows the cumulative effect of these technologies on job creation over 40 years. Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco have a strong focus on wind energy and as such a greater potential for job creation in wind, while Iraq and Jordan show greater potential in solar energy. Table 1: Cumulative impact of Wind and Solar PV on job creation (2025 – 2065) (2025 – 2065) Annual economy-wide Total Jobs Total Jobs Total Employment Country new jobs in Solar PV in Wind (Solar PV + Wind) Egypt 67,000 538,000 1,471,000 2,010,000 Iraq 77,600 2,490,000 614,000 3,105,000 Jordan 30,000 685,000 193,000 1,200,000 Morocco 25,000 244,000 505,000 750,000 Tunisia 26,800 281,000 787,000 1,072,000 Source: Cao et. al (2024). Based on Labor Force Survey data for Egypt (2022), Jordan (2022), Iraq (2021), Morocco (2018) and Tunisia (2017). A taxonomy of potential green jobs based on O*NET green tasks and skills taxonomy was developed, with modifications to adjust for green jobs related to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Therefore, green skills demand within MENA is already manifesting strongly in the energy sector. Labor force survey data from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, shows that 17 percent of the entire labor force of these five countries is already employed in green and potential green occupations related to renewable energy and energy efficiency (Table 2) (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). These workers highlight existing demand for green skills, and with new job creation, they can be reskilled or retrained to match the shifting demand and profiles of new types of occupations. 28 Table 2: Workers in green and potential green occupations in renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors Share of total labor force in green & Total number of workers in green & potential green occupations in Country potential green occupations in renewable renewable energy & energy efficiency energy & energy efficiency sectors sectors Egypt 6,200,000 21% Iraq 1,500,000 15% Jordan 420,000 14% Morocco 2,400,000 20% Tunisia 757,000 19% Source: Cao et. al (2024). Based on Labor Force Survey data for Egypt (2022), Jordan (2022), Iraq (2021), Morocco (2018) and Tunisia (2017). A taxonomy of potential green jobs based on O*NET green tasks and skills taxonomy was developed, with modifications to adjust for green jobs related to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Demand for green skills in the clean energy transition will impact a range of sectors, not just those specific to energy. New job creation will look very different across sectors, with some sectors gaining jobs while others, such as fossil fuels and utilities, losing jobs. Figure 18 shows projected change in job numbers across different sectors in the five MENA countries being examined. Sectors such as services, manufacturing, wholesale, and finance may see a substantial job increase. Growth in the services sector could be attributed to an expansion of green services such as energy efficiency consultation or renewable energy installation. Increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade jobs could be due to increased demand for renewable energy technologies and infrastructure. On the other hand, construction, fossil fuels, and utilities sectors are projected to experience significant job losses, possibly stemming from a reduction in reliance on fossil fuels, changes in traditional utility infrastructures and shifting building practices. 29 Figure 18: Impact of solar and wind energy on economy-wide jobs in MENA (2025 – 2065), by sector Services 5,107,000 All Other Manufacturing 2,173,000 Government 1,236,000 Wholesale Trade 1,202,000 Agriculture 353,000 Finance 194,000 Tech-specific Manufacturing 182,000 Construction (38,000) Fossil Fuels (805,000) Utilities (1,793,000) Source: Adapted from Cao et. al (2024). Based on Labor Force Survey data for Egypt (2022), Jordan (2022), Iraq (2021), Morocco (2018) and Tunisia (2017). A taxonomy of potential green jobs based on O*NET green tasks and skills taxonomy was developed, with modifications to adjust for green jobs related to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Demand for skills in the energy sector exists in both medium-skilled and high-skilled roles, with demand being higher for medium-skilled roles. More than half the workers already in green or potential green occupations in clean energy sectors work in medium-skilled roles (Figure 19) (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). In Jordan, nearly 60 percent of workers in green or potential green jobs in renewable energy and energy efficiency jobs are medium-skilled workers, compared with 36 percent who are in high-skilled roles. The gap is even wider in Morocco, where 58 percent of workers are medium-skilled, and only 19 percent are high- skilled. 30 Figure 19: Skill levels of workers in green or potential green occupations in renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors Medium-skilled, 60% Jordan High-skilled, 36% 58% Morocco 19% 54% Iraq 37% 51% Egypt 46% 48% Tunisia 43% Source: Adapted from Cao et. al (2024). Based on Labor Force Survey data for Egypt (2022), Jordan (2022), Iraq (2021), Morocco (2018) and Tunisia (2017). A taxonomy of potential green jobs based on O*NET green tasks and skills taxonomy was developed, with modifications to adjust for green jobs related to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Jobs in renewable energy and energy efficiency are demanding a range of interdisciplinary skills, outside of just technical proficiency. Analysis of online green job posting data in the energy sector in MENA 6 shows that 70 percent of jobs in energy do not demand any science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills. Across the MENA region, while the most sought-after occupations include specialized electrical engineers, they also include project manager occupations and jobs in sales and business development (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). Key skills necessary for success in these roles include technical competencies such as energy fundamentals and software proficiencies, as well as other skills such as foreign languages, analytical and synthesis skills, project and team management and financial skills (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). While each country will have different needs based on their respective stage in the clean energy transition, this showcases that it will demand a wide range of interdisciplinary skills, challenging the misconception that traditional, subject-specific training methods are sufficient. The MENA regions increasing focus on clean energy means that each country in the region will have varying progress and challenges, depending on their different stages in the transition to clean energy. Table 3 below highlights the opportunities, challenges and skills development efforts in Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. While all three countries have made notable advancements in the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors, there are still 31 several challenges, particularly in terms of the supply of green skills. To address this, MENA countries must increasingly focus on educational reforms and capacity building to equip workforces with the skills needed for the clean energy transition. Table 3: Overview of progress, challenges and skilling efforts in three MENA countries Country Progress Challenges Green Skills Development Efforts Egypt Notable advances in There is a need to • Integration of climate awareness solar and wind power, scale up green into education, including through government skills to support its performance standards and teacher efforts to diversify its growing clean training modules energy mix energy sector • Launched several initiatives, including the Egyptian Solar Energy Development Association (SEDA), to promote solar energy and provide training for technicians and engineers. Jordan A leader in the region Due to its • The Green Academy, which is the in solar and wind advanced training and educational arm of the energy, along with a development, the Jordan Green Building Council, well-established country's RE aims to increase the competence of regulatory framework market has reached professionals and build their a plateau capacity in the field of the green saturation, built environment, and offers specialized green built environment significantly trainings programs. impacting the demand for specialized skills Morocco Pioneer in renewable Skills gap, • Morocco has established the energy through large- particularly at the Institute for Research in Solar scale solar projects medium level Energy and New Energies and its strategic (IRESEN) to support research and location and favorable development, as well as training in policies renewable energy fields. Source: Adapted from Cao et. al (2024) 32 Young people and policymakers often misperceive skilling opportunities “In certain countries in this (MENA) region, government jobs are the only jobs people want. We have to change that.” - Jin-Yong Cai, International Finance Corporation (IFC), The World Bank Group, 2023 Young people are concerned about their futures in general, and many worry that climate change will make it worse. 51 percent of individuals in MENA are concerned that climate change will impact their livelihoods. Global data shows how interested young people are in green skills and how little they know about them. Around 81 percent of youth, across eight low- and middle-income countries, feel that if they do not learn green skills and how to apply them, then their future livelihoods and employability is at stake. But many lack specific and actionable information on these skills. Only 14 percent became aware of the concept of green skills in school. Nearly 59 percent became aware of them only when they were in university or college. This means that for most, awareness about green skills may be coming too late for it to optimally inform their education and career choices. They are also misinformed about the nature of green skills: nearly 68 percent mistakenly believe green skills are only technical skills (Sabarwal, et al. 2024). Young people are also anxious about the rapidly evolving technology transition. Many students in school today are likely to work in occupations that don't yet exist and thus are concerned about the impact of AI on jobs. In fact, 75 percent of youth across 36 countries are worried about unemployment because of AI (Takahashi and Hogenhout 2022). A survey of employees in the Middle East shows that 63 percent feel that technological change will impact their jobs in the next three years, compared to the global average of 46 percent (PwC 2024). At the same time 21 percent feel AI will change the nature of their work in a negative way (PwC 2023). Universities in many MENA countries are not offering enough green or technological skilling opportunities. In Tunisia, only about one-third (32 percent) of skills needed in the energy supply sector are offered at the Master's level or higher (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). In Egypt, only a quarter of universities offer any training related to renewable energy (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). However, this is slowly changing in light of the growing demand. For instance, to meet growing demand for green skills within the energy sector in Egypt, the government has established new technological universities with renewable energy-focused programs which became available in 2019. 33 Students also echo this absence of opportunities as a concern. Around 33 percent of recent graduates interviewed in Jordan reported difficulty in finding practical training opportunities as a challenge in attaining green skills (Al-Salaymeh 2023). Regarding digital skills, 43 percent felt they had only moderate to low proficiency in specific software abilities (Al-Salaymeh 2023). Many students are turning towards online learning platforms to attain green or technological skills. For example, enrollment in online renewable energy and energy efficiency courses on Coursera in the MENA region increased from 7,944 in 2018 to 28,538 in 2023 (Cao, Elte and Zhao 2024). In policymaking there is a lack of prioritization of skilling, especially for green transitions. Analysis of green transition policies from Egypt, Morocco, and Yemen shows that each country has at least one national level policy and/or commitment to addressing climate change. However, only Egypt mentions skills in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). At the same time, education and skills policies often do not reflect national climate priorities. Out of the three countries only Egypt mentions green skills in their skills development policies explicitly. None of the three countries explicitly mention budgetary allocations for green skills in their national education or skills policies. And education policymakers are aware that education systems need to do more on skills. In qualitative work with education policy makers from four MENA countries (Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia), 7 out of 9 policymakers believe that it is imperative that their country's educational policy and systems integrate climate and environmental (including green) knowledge and skills in curriculum. However, only 2 out of 9 policymakers believe that the Ministry of Education in their country is emphasizing green skills. There is a pressing need for investments in education and training systems to ensure that the workforce can meet the demands of the ongoing technological and climate transitions. These investments can help young people harness the opportunities implicit in these transitions and support economic growth, poverty reduction, and social stability. How should policymakers harness the shifting skills demand? “Egypt has long recognized AI as a pivotal tool for economic growth and social development. ... Egypt’s approach to AI is centered on building robust ecosystems by investing in talent development and fostering innovation through public-private partnerships.” - Forbes, July 2024 By investing in green and digital skills, governments can accelerate economic growth while also improving youth outcomes. This agenda is urgent. How to do this? Understanding evolving labor market needs through demand-side analysis provides essential guidance for supply-side decisions. However, this analysis must be forward- 34 looking and flexible. Given the rapid pace and unpredictability of technological and green transitions, retrospective, data-driven skills planning based solely on past demand has serious limitations. Skills requirements are transversal, dynamic, and evolving in ways that cannot be fully anticipated even five years ahead. So, how can governments effectively respond to such uncertainty? First, prepare for unpredictability. The green and digital skilling agenda is big and unpredictable. Simply increasing specific narrowly defined courses in tertiary education will not be enough. These skills cut across sectors are transversal, dynamic, and diverse. At the same time, their demand is changing fast in unexpected ways. It is impossible to anticipate the skills employers will want even five years from now. Retrospective, data-based skills planning - which relies on past labor market trends - has serious limitations given the rapid pace of technological and environmental change. It is a mistake to believe that government- provided training in specific and narrowly defined technical and vocational skills will suffice to unlock the potential of green and digital skilling. Such an approach risks creating an education and training system that is always catching up with new demand rather than being in step with them. Second, the focus needs to be on facilitation, not just provision. This facilitation should have two priorities – adaptable and better prepared students on the one hand and agile systems that provide a strong enabling environment. Figure 21: Approach to skilling for the green and digital transition Strong foundations Accurate and actionable Flexible pathways information Harnessing Green Skills Aligned systems (with private sector and Inclusive systems across governments) Source: Sabarwal et al (2024) 35 Priority 1: Adaptable workers through information, strong foundations, and flexible pathways. Information Young people urgently need clear information about green and digital skilling opportunities and their labor market prospects. Tertiary education should invest in information services around green and technological transitions, including job intermediation and search assistance. System-wide mechanisms to collect, produce and disseminate information on costs and returns to tertiary education for students are particularly important. Effective skills development requires a broad, nuanced understanding of both supply and demand dynamics to avoid misalignment between training efforts and labor market needs. Three ideas for this are: • Better career guidance at secondary and post-secondary level. • Develop Labor Market Information Systems (LMIS) and use these to provide better career guidance at secondary and post-secondary levels and better information for training providers. • Undertake graduate tracer studies for green and technology skilling programs. These studies will allow policymakers to better understand the quality and relevance of the skilling programs, especially if they include employer feedback. They can generate data on employability that would be useful for students and employers. They can also shine a light on access and equity issues. For example, Saudi Arabia’s National Labor Gateway (TAQAT) connects job seekers with training opportunities and employers. Through TAQAT, Saudi citizens can access a range of training programs and apprenticeships in various fields, including digital skills. The platform also helps employers to find qualified candidates with the skills they need to succeed in the digital economy. Strong Foundations Green skills can only be fostered on a solid foundation of other bed-rock skills. Government should ensure that each cohort enters the workforce with a solid foundation of skills acquired through basic education. Nearly, 70 percent of ten-year-olds in the MENA region do not meet minimum proficiency in literacy (World Bank 2022). In addition, nearly 15 million children and youth in MENA are still out of school (UNICEF n.d.). MENA countries may also need to expand their definition of foundational skills at the post-secondary level to include minimum digital competencies and specific socio- emotional skills. The future of work increases the demand for higher-order general cognitive skills - such as complex problem-solving, critical thinking, and advanced communication - that 36 are transferable across jobs but cannot be acquired through schooling alone (World Bank 2019). This demand will also apply to jobs for the green and technology transitions. For instance, the data above suggests that a significant share of jobs across sectors in MENA require some digital skills. Similarly, specific socio-emotional skills such as teamwork, collaboration, etc. are in high demand for green and technology jobs and beyond (Al-Salaymeh 2023). Flexible Pathways Tertiary education systems in MENA need flexible pathways in three ways. First, more flexibility between different tracks, especially general and vocational education. This means that when students open the door to one pathway, the doors to other pathways do not close irrevocably. In most countries, students need to choose between these streams very early on and once this choice is made, especially if it is for vocational training, it is typically difficult and expensive to reverse. Building flexibility between general and vocational tracks will help students build combinations of general and technical skills, that seem to be in demand in green jobs. It also allows people trained in narrow vocational green skills (e.g. solar panel installers) to benefit from wider opportunities. Second, more flexibility to access short term courses and stackable credentials, that allow students to build customizable combinations of skills. The lead times required to bring on a heat pump installer or wind turbine engineer - from inspiring interest in STEM in schools through the necessary apprenticeships and university degrees and into the workforce - can be extremely long and rigid. However, both the labor market and the students require rapid, “just- in-time” skilling opportunities. Stacking credentials is an increasingly popular higher education policy and can be particularly beneficial for green and digital skilling. It ensures individuals can get credit for a range of different learning experiences and build customizable skill profiles; it supports students who want green and digital skills but may be unable commit to longer-term programs; it also helps companies reskill through training and credentials. One example of this is the "One Million Arab Coders" initiative 7, launched in 2017 by the UAE. The program provides free online coding and web development training to 1 million youth. Its online format enhances accessibility for those with diverse commitments, with monetary incentives to encourage course completion. Third, more flexibility to access skilling opportunities irrespective of age or location. To truly provide lifelong learning. Technology-enabled platforms can help make green skilling more accessible, especially for those already in the labor market or those with historically low access. Sustainability-related courses are being offered as Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) on various platforms, such as Edx, Coursera, Canvas.net, and FutureLearn, with universities from high-income countries such as the US, UK, Netherlands, and Canada providing them. 37 Priority 2: Aligned and inclusive systems Aligned systems Green and digital skilling programs need to have built-in linkages to labor market for on-the-job training. This can be done through proactive internship programs, active career centers, and strong alumni networks. It is also in the interest of the private sector to coordinate with tertiary institutions so they can invest in and readily update their own talent pipelines. The World Bank’s Youth Technology for Jobs project in Jordan is aiming to do this by establishing industry councils and public-private partnership bootcamps (World Bank 2020). Similarly, Egypt's Digital Egypt Builders Initiative (DEBI) partners with major tech companies like Microsoft, Cisco and AWS to offer professional training and international certifications in AI, data science, cybersecurity and more. DEBI aims to bridge skills gaps by equipping young professionals with practical experience and technical skills needed for the job market. Another aspect of private sector collaboration is fostering university-based innovation for technology development and diffusion. To do this, it is important to provide funding opportunities for technology development and early-stage funding for clean tech startups as well as incentives for academics to participate. It is also important to foster inter-disciplinarity in research and strengthened collaboration with non-academic actors and foreign organizations (Trencher, et al. 2014). Such approaches can help foster academic entrepreneurship and accelerate spinoffs - from research institutions to market applications. Some examples where universities are key part of green innovation clusters include the California (US) and Jiangsu (China) solar PV clusters, the U.S. Great Lakes region wind cluster, the São Paulo and Midwest U.S. ethanol clusters, and The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras Research Park innovation cluster for green hydrogen (Hill and Engel-Cox 2017). Africa Centers of Excellence 8, a series of regional higher education projects (co-financed with the World Bank), demonstrate the transformative power of higher education innovation. One example of this is the MOBILISE project, a collaborative effort between the Netherlands and Tunisia, Egypt and Ethiopia for the strengthening of climate-smart agriculture. The project seeks to meet the demands of the labor market in participating countries by involving partners from the public and private sector while developing cooperation with local higher educational institutions (Maastrict University 2023). These efforts should include redirecting a bigger share of development, climate change, and technology funds to well-designed skilling interventions. This will be money well spent. Education provides foundational skills, cognitive skills, and socio-emotional/ transversal skills which can enable a country’s workforce to adapt to rapidly evolving labor market needs of the green economy. It can also help mitigate the cost of adapting to the green transition (job losses and job changes) through upskilling and reskilling. Countries and economies that can proactively drive the green transition through research and innovation are also likely to be least impacted by its ill-effects (Stern and Valero 2021). 38 Inclusive systems Skilling efforts should prioritize marginalized groups including women, youth, and displaced people. There is a relatively high concentration of green jobs in STEM and technical fields, and construction, which still tend to male dominated in some countries. Girls globally represent 35 percent of students enrolled in STEM-related fields of study (Kwauk and Casey 2021). In Lebanon, for example, the average enrollment of females in sciences is about 54 percent, while it is only about 25 percent in engineering (Ahmad, et al. 2019). Only 122 out of 1,000 “most influential” climate scientists are women (Tandon 2021). Programs should aim to create pipelines for women and marginalized groups into green skills focused fields of study and jobs. Programs that give students exposure to role models and mentors, particularly when the role model comes from a similar background or gender to the student, can increase students’ persistence in education and performance in school (Kraft, Bolves and Hurd 2023). Another dimension of intentional inclusion is migrant youth. As climate change accelerates, more families and youth will experience displacement. In light of this, governments should remove barriers to access faced by migrant groups. These can include barriers due to language differences, lack of documented previous qualifications, or legal status. Green and digital skilling offer win-win opportunities, but governments need to seize them Skilling is a key pathway for enabling youth to shape and drive the ongoing transitions. Over the next 10 years in MENA, nearly 250 million young people, which is more than half the region’s population, will be entering the workforce. 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"World Development Report 2019. The Changing Nature of Work." 1 Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE 2 These 16 countries have ratified the Paris Agreement. 3 United Nations United Arab Emirates. MENA region could create 10 million new jobs by 2050 through decarbonization and green industrial growth. Retrieved from https://unitedarabemirates.un.org/en/262192- mena-region-could-create-10-million-new-jobs-2050-through-decarbonization-and-green 4 The full labels of these sectors in labor-force surveys are: agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply; specialized construction activities; transportation and storage; water supply, sewerage and waste management 5 Refers to both direct and indirect job creation. 6 From 6 countries: Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and UAE 7 https://www.arabcoders.ae/ 8 These projects include several countries - Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia 43