SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 HIGHLIGHT Forewarned, but not Forearmed? As climate change results in recurrent and more frequent Lessons for the natural disasters, each Recent Floods calamity proves instructional in Pakistan for the future. I summarize from 20101 the lessons learned from the social protection and wider Yashodhan Ghorpade disaster response in the Pakistan is witnessing some of the worst flooding in 2010 floods in Pakistan and decades. With over 33 million people already affected directly, the scale of the catastrophe presents an discuss how they can benefit enormous challenge to the Pakistan economy and its people. Occurring in a context of global recession, ongoing efforts to recover political instability, macroeconomic volatility, and the pandemic, the timing couldn’t have been worse. This from the floods in the country year also marks 12 years since the cataclysmic flooding of 2010; until now the country’s worst natural disaster in 2022, and other settings. in history that ravaged terrain and infrastructure over “an area the size of England,” affected over 20 million people in its path, and resulted in damages of the scale 1 I am grateful to Aline Coudouel and Ugo Gentilini for their comments and inputs.. 1 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 of 5.8% of the preceding year’s GDP. The sheer scale of the However, in 2010, additional capacity had to 2010 calamity provoked a large response from government be mobilized to set up the Citizen’s Damage and donor agencies at the time and prompted deep inquiry Compensation (CDCP – or more popularly, Watan) in the natural and social sciences on its occurrence and Programme. In contrast to the BISP which pre-dated the impact, generating a wealth of knowledge for the future. 2010 floods, the CDCP (Watan) program, set up a new cash-based damage compensation program. It relied on In this note I reflect upon the findings from some of the the registration architecture developed by NADRA as well research on the 2010 floods in Pakistan that can potentially as home visits to assess flood-induced damages. Since inform thinking and action in the current tragedy, focusing 2010, Pakistan has strengthened its civil registration and on social protection and disaster response measures. payment systems, and is now better placed to rely on This comes with a strong personal motivation for me; my existing databases to undertake enrollment and disburse- doctoral research between 2011 and 2016 focused on ment of especially cash assistance. Other good practices household behavior in the aftermath of the 2010 Pakistan from 2010, involved tailored outreach and communications floods and deepened my interest in the impact of inter- deployed in the CDCP.2 secting and recurrent shocks on households. The experience from 2010 underscores an important lesson: that investments made upfront to establish and Finding 1. Building Social Protection sustain large-scale social protection systems can have a and Disaster Relief Systems and Capacity huge pay-off when disaster strikes. The time to repair the in regular times pays off during a crisis roof is indeed, when the sun is shining. Access to formal programs and social protection Finding 2. Pre-flood Inequities affect both, systems, can critically enable the rollout of a large-scale damage compensation. Much of the liter- exposure to shocks and the trajectory of ature on shock-responsive and adaptive social protection coping and recovery invokes two types of program expansion in the aftermath of a shock – horizontal (increasing the number of recipi- Shocks such as the floods in Pakistan, by their very defini- ents to include the larger numbers of people with needs tion, reflect a disruption of familiar patterns. Yet, so much for support), and vertical (increasing the quantum of of how a disaster plays out depends on the initial condi- support to enable existing recipients to meet greater needs tions of individuals, households, and communi- in crisis). Both forms of expansion require the existence of a ties that may exacerbate, or reduce their vulner- social protection and/ or citizen registry system that can be ability to flooding. Communities residing in precarious used to channel cash and in-kind assistance. On this front, dwellings and in low-lying areas are typically more vulner- Pakistan was somewhat well-placed in 2010, with a good able to floods. coverage of the poverty-targeted flagship Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). In some districts, benefit In the 2010 floods, traditionally vulnerable groups amounts for BISP recipients were temporarily increased were also less likely to receive flood relief. Research to help them meet contingencies arising from the flood, has shown that in the 2010 floods, traditionally margin- serving as a textbook example of vertical expansion. The alized groups including women, rural communities, and initial response in 2022 seems to already build on existing displaced persons (especially those not living in designated systems such as the BISP for targeting immediate relief. 2 Seyfert and Ahmed (2020), pp. 54 2 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 flood relief camps) were more likely to be excluded from that have been shown to affect long-term development disaster relief. and poverty-reduction. Research by Katrina Kosec and Cecilia Mo at IFPRI shows that the 2010 floods had a damaging effect on rural people’s aspirations, but Finding 3. Recovery from Flooding implies also that the CDCP was able to attenuate these different forms of support to affected effects by “easing mental burdens, and thus raising aspi- households over time rations for the future.” Affected households and communities may sequentially Finding 5. Social networks matter require immediate relief, followed by support for relocation and return, and compensation of losses, but the duration immensely for households coping with and timing of various kinds of support needed could vary. natural disasters The types of support needed, in large part be determined by households’ initial capacities as well as the extent of People rely heavily on their social networks for coping in flood damages suffered. Consequently, people’s expecta- times of need. These prove particularly critical for flood-af- tions of relief and reconstruction efforts will hinge on their fected families seeking to migrate temporarily or to borrow needs at a given point in time, and the extent to which money to meet contingencies, for instance. Support these are being bet. A study by Kirsch et al. (2013) found from social networks can greatly supplement the assis- overwhelming (> 80%) dissatisfaction with relief tance provided by formal government and humanitarian efforts in 2010. What did however correlate with higher agencies. Akbar and Aldrich (2017) found that social capital satisfaction in the first month after flooding was receipt of measures were strongly related to post-flood recovery in food, hygiene and household items. After 6 months, the 2010, and argue that in responding to natural disasters, receipt of medicines also correlated with greater satisfac- attempts should be made to ensure that affected people tion. However, the study also found a high prevalence of are able to maintain their networks of friends, family and unmet needs 6 months after flood exposure and as relief neighbors. This may be done, for instance, by allowing efforts were being wound down, as some households may greater autonomy to people in choosing their location require longer durations and different types of support to within flood relief camps, providing mobile and phone compensate the loss of their productive assets. connectivity where this may be disrupted, and supporting people to migrate temporarily to join extended family and community members. Semple (2011) also provides a useful Finding 4. Large-scale flooding can harm reminder of the need to uphold human dignity and move people’s mental wellbeing (in addition from patronage-based to an entitlements-based access to to their physical health and economic disaster relief. condition), but timely action can limit such effects Finding 6. Security Risks may affect displaced communities, and people’s A disaster of such large proportions such as this can hardly access to flood relief be expected to leave the people and economy unscarred. Likely effects range from the obvious (damaged physical Security concerns are another critical underlying infrastructure, cropland) to the secondary (physical and factor that can affect the trajectory of disaster mental health, livelihoods, human capital more broadly) and response and mitigation. In my own research I found the less apparent. The latter includes, critically, aspirations 3 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 that pre-flood exposure to violent conflict, reduced the development path for an area in the future could itself affect likelihood of affected households receiving cash transfers the receipt and purpose of remittances. Exposure to violent from government programs, potentially due to opposi- conflict, a factor that diminishes economic prospects, can tion and scuttling from non-state armed groups that may therefore limit people’s access to this important source of resent the state’s outreach to the population through support for coping. such programs. In contrast, the reach of local NGOs and charities, though smaller in scale, did not seem to be affected by pre-flood conflict. This underlines the potential Finding 8. Natural Disasters can enhance value of partnering with such organizations for delivery of political awareness and activity assistance in violence-affected areas in the current crisis. Security concerns may also dictate the choice of imple- The 2010 floods had important political ramifications. mentation partners for last-mile delivery. During the 2010 A  detailed study on the effects of the 2010 floods on floods, several commercial banks were unwilling to operate voter turnout in the 2013 national elections found strong in conflict-affected areas because of security risks involved evidence for higher voter turnout, especially in areas with during the replenishment of cash, requiring the National lower ex-ante flood risk. With elections expected soon in Bank to undertake payment operations and provide their Pakistan this time around, the effects of the flood and own security. Another concern to be mindful of during the the state’s response to it will not only shape the political first few months after the flood, is the likely spike in crime discourse, it is also likely that newer and more voters may and insecurity within communities, as was documented in participate in the electoral process. Another observation 2010. Crimes may stem from the loot of abandoned prop- following the 2010 floods was the emergence of what erties, aid, and assets, and perceptions of insecurity when Ayesha Siddiqui terms ‘digital citizenship’, characterized by people have to live in relief camps rather than in their own the overlap of informal citizen-state interactions with formal homes. Over time, this can result in social breakdown and policy, and enabled by the rollout of assistance using digiti- can also prevent people from leaving their homes in flooded zation and financial outreach through ATM cards. areas even when the floodwaters present clear dangers. The proactive provision of security would be critical for both relief camp and regular residential settings. Finding 7. While Remittances can serve as a means of informal social protection, security and investment considerations may limit or mediate their reach. Remittances can be a critical lifeline to those in need. While remittances tend to respond counter-cyclically to shocks such as flooding, in another part of my doctoral research I found that remittances were in fact lower for house- holds in communities affected by conflict before the 2010 floods. I postulate that this could be because of diminished investment prospects for those sending remittances in areas affected by conflict. In other words, the prospective 4 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 What Lessons can we draw from duration of support on assessments of households’ needs and the pace of recovery. the Rollout of Flood Relief in 2010? • Security Risks Need to be Understood and The experience of the 2010 flood relief and rehabilitation Mitigated Against. Conflict-affected areas may rollout provide important recommendations for responding pose additional and different challenges to the to the 2022 floods in Pakistan, and indeed for a range of rollout of assistance to flood-affected populations. other settings. Pre-existing security risks need to be considered more carefully and in advance while planning relief and • First, Investments in Governance and Delivery rehabilitation efforts this time round. This implies the Systems pay off during a crisis. Well-defined and appropriate choice of delivery mechanisms, implemen- functioning social protection systems offer the basis tation partners and security provision for the rollout of for reaching out to poor and vulnerable populations disaster relief and during reconstruction, especially in in times of need. While building such systems requires camp settings. time, resources and coordination across institutions, such investments made during regular times prove • Over the medium term, rebuilding destroyed critical when disasters occur. capacity – physical, human and social will be critical for future resilience, including building • Timely and substantial social protection back better. While immediate efforts will have to or disaster relief transfers is critical. In the focus on providing basic necessities – food, shelter, aftermath of flooding, timely and adequate cash and sanitation, in the medium to long term, other require- in-kind support can help affected communities meet ments will need to be addressed. The indirect fallout immediate needs, as well as ease mental burdens and of flooding – disease, crop loss, disrupted schooling, protect people’s productivity in the longer term. damaged infrastructure, will all contribute to an erosion of the productive capacity of the country. Over time, • Underlying economic and social Inequities relief must give way to reconstruction, and critically, need to be overcome through better outreach building back better, to reduce the human contribution to, and the inclusion of traditionally excluded to the factors that may have accentuated the damages groups. Groups such as Isolated communities in from flooding. remote and rural areas, women, and especially women-headed households, and displaced households As shocks arising from climate change patterns increase that are not living in camps may be more likely to be in intensity and frequency, we cannot afford to ignore excluded from relief and rehabilitation efforts. Relief the lessons they have taught us to be better prepared managers should pay special attention to vulnerable for their recurrence. Learning from the 2010 floods is as groups to take steps to ensure their inclusion in relief important for governments, donors, and humanitarian and and rehabilitation and address the barriers they may aid agencies, as it is for poor and vulnerable households face in accessing programs or assistance who simultaneously bear the brunt of nature’s fury, human errors of omission and commission and a limited means • Relief and Recovery Timelines should be of coping. informed by people’s needs. In the ongoing crisis, relief efforts (and consequently funding and capacity needs) should not be planned for any arbitrarily deter- mined length of time but should instead base the 5 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE SEPTEMBER 2022 | No. 26 References Akbar MS PhD, Aldrich DP. “Social capital’s role in recovery: evidence from communities affected by the 2010 Pakistan floods.” Disasters. 2018 Jul;42(3):475- 497. doi: 10.1111/disa.12259. Epub 2017 Nov 13. PMID: 29131374. 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Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/676321468057882381/Pakistan-floods-2010-preliminary-damage-and-needs-assessment-project © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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