Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit Social Development Department Dissemination Notes .b The Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) Identifying Conflict-related Obstacles to Development October 2002 Numb The Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit has developed a Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) to integrate sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance, and to enable Bank teams to consider factors affecting conflict when formulating development strategies, policies, and programs. Violent internal conflicts pose a major challenge to including the government-pursue their objectives in development. Violent conflicts occur accordance with the laws and established norms of disproportionately in poor countries and are that society, conflict tends to be predominantly detrimental to economic growth and poverty political. In other cases, groups turn to violence to reduction. Conflicts constrain development efforts, pursue their goals, and the use of violence divert scarce financial and physical resources, and outweighs the use of political means. These violent weaken a country's social fabric and human capital.' conflicts are of concern to poverty reduction and development, and are addressed by CAF. In this To address issues related to violent conflict, the context, conflict prevention would entail activities Bank's Operational Policy on Development that can reduce the likelihood that conflicts will turn Cooperation and Conflict (OP2.30) mandates the violent. integration of sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance through conflict analysis. The need for T he Bank's contribution to conflict prevention is two- conflict analysis is based on the recognition that the fold. It supports strategies and activities that aim at probability of success of development assistance is making countries more resilient to the eruption and improved by a complementary analytical framework eiscalation of violent conflict, and programs that that identifies sources of violent conflicts and address the sources of conflict. Building resilience opportunities for their outbreak and escalation. The to violent conflict involves the strengthening of Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) seeks to support participatory and inclusive social processes and country and regional efforts to analyze and address institutions that may help manage conflicts in non- conflicts in the context of country assistance, poverty violent ways. Sources of conflict differ from country reduction and other development strategies. to country, and include root causes of conflict as well as opportunities for groups to engage in violent CAF aims to highlight key factors influencing conflict, activities. Some of the sources are addressed by focusing on six areas: social and ethnic relations; the Bank through poverty reduction and other governance and political institutions; human rights development assistance. Examples of sources and security; economic structure and performance; include youth unemployment, differential social environment and natural resources; and external opportunities, and a country's reliance on high-value factors. A better understanding of what affects the primary commodities. level and dynamics of conflict can help operational teams ensure that development interventions do not Conflict analysis is a critical cog in conflict instigate, exacerbate, or revive situations of violent prevention as it can help highlight potential areas of conflict, but instead-if well designed-help reduce concern, and guide a development strategy that conflict. addresses potential sources of conflict and identifies opportunities to strengthen conflict resiliency. Conflict Analysis and Conflict Prevention Conflict is inherent to all societies. Differences in When to Conduct Conflict Analysis interests and opinions between groups are natural, CAF is designed for country-level analysis (or for a but how such differences are expressed and province or region in a large country) and is managed determines if conflicts manifest e!xpected to contribute to poverty reduction themselves in primarily political (non-violent) or strategies and other country strategies. It can be violent ways. When groups within a society- used as a stand-alone analysis or as a part of an upstream macro-social analysis.3 To ascertain role, none of them is individually necessary nor whether a country needs to undertake conflict sufficient for the outbreak, escalation or revival of analysis, CAF includes a brief screening process violent conflicts. Still, high scoring on several of consisting of eight main indicators (table below). these indicators suggests the need for conflict While each of these factors could play a determinant analysis. Risk Screening Indicators inrdicators' - .. y Relationto ConfI,,- : . - l 1. History of conflict If a country has experienced violent conflict in the past 10 years, there is a high possibility of recurrence of conflict. 2. Income per capita Countries with low per capita Gross National Incomes are more likely to experience violent conflict. 3. Primary commodity exports Countries with a high dependence on primary commodity exports face a higher risk of experiencing violent conflict. 4. Regime instability: * Transformation of state structure . Restructuring of the state at frequent intervals signals serious instability and the likelihood that violence may be employed to bring about systemic * Political instability changes. * Political instability may occur in democratic and non-democratic societies. It can take the form of disregard for civil liberties and political rights, and a breakdown of law and order. In terms of their link to violent conflict, these two aspects can occur in tandem or independently 5. Militarization Countries may have high defense spending as a share of GDP, and large armies as proportion of their population. Militarization may also include the availability of arms and the existence of armed non-state actors. These factors suggest the likelihood of emerging or escalating violent conflict. 6. Ethnic dominance When one ethnic group controls state institutions and/or the economy, there is a high risk of outbreak of violent conflict. 7 Active regional conflicts Regional conflicts are likely to have a cascading effect, such that the internal stability of a country is threatened, increasing the probability of violent conflict. 8. Youth unemployment Youth unemployment (especially for males) can have a critical bearing on the probability of violent conflict. Lack of jobs and opportunities tend to create frustration, making unemployed youth prime candidates for recruitment by militant organizations with funds and arms at their disposal. Conducting Conflict Analysis conflict. A factor that has a strong impact on conflict If a country is found to be at risk of violent conflict, or in country A might have less relevance in country B is already experiencing large-scale violence, a full and none in country C. The framework attempts to conflict analysis should be conducted. CAF uses six be both comprehensive and flexible to guide categories of variables related to conflict. The analysis in very different country situations, each categories consist of several variables, each with with unique characteristics. Bank country teams corresponding indicators on three levels of intensity should therefore adapt CAF to their particular (warning; increasing intensity; de-escalation) that situation, by translating the generic variables reflect change in the level of violent conflict. These presented in the framework to the specific country indicators are used to estimate the impact of a situation, and add or delete variables according to variable on a country's level of conflict and its link their relevance. The teams' country knowledge is with poverty. As a consequence, sensitive issues important in determining the specific dynamics and are highlighted so that programs can take them into linkages. account. The importance of the different variables differs from country to country, and from conflict to 2 Categories of Variables Social and economic Governance Role of media Economic growth Availability of Regional conflicts cleavages and political and freedom . natural resources Role of kindred instiutios of xpresion Income disparitiesRoefkidd Ethnic cleavages institutions of expression Access to natural groups outside Stability of Human rights Percapita income resources country Regional imbalances political status changes (including land) Differential social institutions Militarization Inflationary trends In-countryRole of diasporas opportunities Equity of of society External debt cross-border Bridging social law/judicial Security of management competition over capital system civilians Reliance on high-value natural resources Group identity- Links between primary commodities building government and citizens Employment and Myth-making access to productive Culture or tradition of resources violence Conflict-induced poverty Analysis of each variable is done along seven 2. Workshops with country specialists to cover dimensions to determine the way it relates to conflict each of the six CAF categories; and to poverty: 3. Follow-up studies, as needed, on issues * history/changes: how the issue has evolved identified in the workshop; over a pertinent time span; 4. Country consultation with different stakeholder * dynamics/trends: what is determining the future groups, as needed; and path of the issue, and how it is likely to develop; 5. Concluding workshops to discuss integration * public perceptions: public attitudes and biases into the poverty reduction strategy, country strategy regarding the issue; or other country programs. * politicization: how the issue is used politically by different groups; Integrating Conflict Analysis into Strategy * organization: the extent to which the issue has While there is an increasing awareness both in the led to the establishment of interest groups, and/or E3ank and among partners about the potential folly of influenced political parties and militant organizations; ignoring conflict in strategy work, many country * link to conflict and intensity: how the factor development strategies still remain largely "conflict contributes to conflict and the current level of blind". At worst, conflict-blind development intensity; and assistance may inadvertently exacerbate conflict; at * link to poverty: how the issue relates to poverty. best, it may simply be irrelevant to the issues that force many of a country's citizens into a situation of The results of the analysis on the above seven violent conflict. dimensions will help develop a prioritized list of factors that relate closely with conflict, according to In one country case, the policy of limiting access to their degree of import. Factors with a high degree of higher education for a minority ethnic group has impact on conflict and poverty, especially if their been a contributing factor to two decades of deadly degree of importance is increasing, should be internal war. The reasons for the dominant ethnic considered priority areas and be of special concern group to limit such access lie in the social patterns in country strategies. The analysis of each variable that developed during and after colonial rule. When would provide essential information about how the the country achieved independence, the smaller factors play out in the country, and should guide ethnic group had a share of higher education, and of development assistance onthe sue.dcivil service and professional jobs, that went far beyond its proportion of the general population. Based on the needs and opportunities of the specific Nationalism and mythmaking had become important country, conflict analysis can be conducted along elements in a post-independence strategy by the the following steps: dominant ethnic group to consolidate power and 1. Reinterpretation of existing information on the extend its dominance into the economic sphere. It conflict situation of a country along the lines of CAF iused its control of state institutions to curb access to (brief desk study)a higher education, and thus to societal influence, by (brief desk study); the smaller ethnic group. When a militant struggle for 3 secession evolved within the ethnic minority around take place within most schools and universities, and a multitude of issues, the feeling of discrimination such segregation to be increasingly replicated within was key in the recruitment of a cadre of militants and other spheres of the society, making the animosity the issue of access to education became a highly ever more entrenched. It found that the issue of symbolic rallying point. education had a direct effect on both conflict and poverty. A large number of young people in ethnic By using CAF as a tool to make sense of this minority areas were unable to enroll in higher situation and help determine how development education despite being qualified academically, assistance could contribute to address issues that many of them remained unemployed for long had plagued the country for decades, planners were periods of time, and a substantial number of those able to zoom in on several key variables for being unemployed were recruited into the militant analysis: social and economic cleavages, ethnic rebel groups. The discriminatory education system cleavages, regional imbalances, horizontal social also had indirect effects on poverty. The difficulty of capital, mythmaking, governance and political finding qualified teachers in ethnic minority areas institutions, income disparities, employment and negatively affected the quality of education and access to productive resources, and the role of the further limited economic opportunities for young diaspora. The critical issue of access to higher people. Also, the violent conflict itself disrupted education was analyzed under the variable of productive activities and limited investments, thereby 'differential social opportunities' and planners traced increasing even further the social, economic and the history and the changes that had taken place regional disparities that had sparked the conflict in pre- and post-independence, they analyzed the the first place. wider issues that constrain equality in education The analysis prompted a recommendation for today and how they are likely to develop, and they program support to reorganize the ethno- considered public attitudes and biases within several linguistically segregated educational institutions sub-categories of the two ethnic groups. The (schools, universities and teacher training institutes), analysis of the variable further included the rewrite the ethnically biased contents of school texts, important questions of how the issue of access to and train the teachers to meet the challenges of a education had been, and still is, politicized by key multiethnic and multicultural society. players, and of the different organizations and parties that had been formed or influenced by this Conclusion issue, and how they in turn were able to influence CAF is a tool for analyzing factors that have shown changes in the education sector. to affect or be affected by conflict. Conflict analysis can contribute to the development of conflict- Application of CAF on the issue of education in this sensitive approaches, to view development through particular country revealed the kind of implications a conflict lens, and to help development actors there were on the society. First, how and to what design strategies and interventions that stand a extent this issue continued to fuel the conflict-had it better chance of not exacerbating conflict but also to become mainly a symbolic issue or was it still a key help make societies more resilient to violent conflict. rallying point for young people in several parts of the country? Second, what had been the demographic CPR Unit and economic consequences of the educational This Dissemination Note was written by Shonali Sardesai and Per policies, and how had they affected the patterns of Wam of the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit (CPR) poverty in the country? This note series is intended to disseminate good practice and key The analysis found that the way the ethnic divisions findings on conflict prevention and reconstruction The series is edited by the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction (CPR) Unit and animosities manifested themselves within the in the Social Development Department of the Environmentally and education structure of the country went beyond the Socially Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank. visible ethnic discrimination, and that it included The views expressed in these notes are those of the authors and long-lasting and insidious effects on the do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. CPR organizational structure of educational institutions, Dissemination Notes are distnbuted widely to Bank staff and are the training of teachers, and the content of textbooks also available on the CPR website and syllabi. It found language-based segregation to (http://wwwworldbank.org/conflict) 3 See the Social Analysis Sourcebook developed by the World Nils Petter Gleditsch, et al, Armed Conflict 1946-1999: A New Bank (August 2002). Dataset, 2002 In 2000, out of 25 countries classified as being in www.worldbank.oro/socialanalvsissourcebook conflict, 16 were low-income; 7 were lower middle income and 2 were upper-middle and high-income countries. 4 These indicators were selected by the Conflict Prevention and 2 In some cases, the state laws themselves promote exclusion, Reconstruction Unit in consultation with the Research Group, prevent participation, and make groups feel that they have no DECRG, World Bank. They do not necessarily represent causes peaceful, political alternatives, and that violence is their only of conflict, but have shown to be closely correlated with the option. occurrence of violent conflict For further details on indicators, please refer to the CAF document, available from cpr@worldbank.org 4